PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Where ETR Ranks Disagree Most With The Market and WHY (Episode 993 with Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, Justin Herzig, Jack Miller)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 2, 2026
Published
Thu, July 2, 2026
13
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Brandon AiyukBrian Thomas Jr.Cooper KuppDylan SampsonJayden DanielsJosh AllenLamar JacksonMark AndrewsMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael WilsonParker WashingtonTravis HunterZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Brandon Aiyuk
NegativeValue61:58
Evan Silva prefers Cooper Kupp over Brandon Aiyuk in best-ball formats but flips to Aiyuk for redraft leagues, indicating Silva sees Aiyuk as a drop candidate in redraft but with better best-ball utility. This reflects different risk/reward profiles across league formats.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveValue51:49
ETR ranks Brian Thomas Jr. at 74 overall while ADP is 63, placing them 11 spots behind market. Thomas was arguably the worst wide receiver in the NFL for the majority of last season. Since hiring new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen, the Jaguars have traded for Jacoby Myers, used the number two pick on Travis Hunter, significantly increased Parker Washington's role, and used a second-round pick on Nate Borkercher—all signals that Thomas is not a featured part of their passing game. When all three receivers (Washington, Myers, Thomas) were on field last year, Thomas was a clear third with only 12% target share once Myers started playing, while Myers was consistently above 20%. Offseason buzz about Thomas (puff pieces, quote about running not hurting) may be team-generated confidence-building rather than genuine role expansion.
Insight pageCooper Kupp
PositiveValue56:25
ETR ranks Cooper Kupp at 180 overall in best ball while ADP is 199, placing them 19 spots ahead of market. In best ball, Kupp has value as a consistent floor player who scores 7-8 points every game and provides usable weeks occasionally, despite lacking a huge ceiling. Last year, once Rashid Shahid was acquired, Kupp had 18% target per hour run and 16% target share, compared to Shahid's 10% target share. While offseason buzz suggests Shahid will be more featured (three-year, $51 million contract), Kupp's target per route run wasn't catastrophic last year, his yards per target jumped back up with the improved offense, and the top three receivers aren't in question. Torrey Hockenson is still recovering from shin injury, so his skillset (more redundant with Shahid) won't compete with Kupp. Kupp will likely see significant volume despite being older and having a muted ceiling. In best ball, late-round consistency has value, and Kupp's skillset and experience suggest he won't completely fall off the cliff.
Insight pageDylan Sampson
PositiveRole50:18
Dylan Sampson remains a significant factor in the Browns' pass-down work with a 29% target per hour run from last year, which is massive for a running back. He was also really efficient per target for a running back, suggesting he will get a good chunk of the pass-down work even with Quinchon Junkins in the backfield.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveValue49:05
Justin Herzig prefers Jaden Daniels over Lamar Jackson in best ball because Daniels is available at a round and a half better ADP, offering superior value despite similar upside.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue45:10
ETR ranks Josh Allen at 35 overall in best ball while ADP is 27, placing them eight spots below market. The disagreement is strategic rather than talent-based: in best ball, early quarterback selection creates roster construction issues, leaving teams thin at running back. While Josh Allen scores 30+ points in playoffs, other quarterbacks (Brock Purdy had 44, Trevor Lawrence had 40, Danny Dimes had 35 in Week 17) can match that ceiling in one-week samples. Allen's best games typically require two rushing touchdowns, creating a multi-leg parlay requirement for best ball value. In contrast, Baker Mayfield's 35-point games correlate with pass catchers (Egbuka, Godwin, Otten, McMillan, Ted Hurst), making him more valuable for correlated stacking in best ball.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection48:01
Evan Silva has Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in their own tier, closer together than the best ball market does. Silva is betting that Lamar Jackson bounces back from last year's hamstring injury and returns to explosive form. While Lamar looked slower at times last year, he still recorded fast MPH data even after returning from injury. Silva expects Lamar to be a super explosive player this season, with the two quarterbacks (Allen and Jackson) ranked tighter than ADP suggests.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveValue49:15
Justin Herzig has been acquiring Mark Andrews as a cheap second tight end in the later rounds when drafting Lamar Jackson, hoping he scores 10 touchdowns. This pairing fits well with the draft strategy of taking a tight end late and stacking with the Ravens quarterback.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeRole40:35
Marvin Harrison received fourth overall pick draft capital two years ago. When he returned from injury last year, he out-targeted Michael Wilson 7-3 in his first game back before leaving early. The new Cardinals coaching staff is expected to want to get Harrison going, which would likely occur at the expense of Michael Wilson. However, there is uncertainty about whether Harrison can actually succeed in the offense, and he may be incapable of returning to form.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeValue40:35
ETR ranks Michael Wilson at 95 overall while ADP is 83, placing them one round below market. The concern centers on target share collapse when Marvin Harrison returned: Wilson had 29% target share and 29% target per hour run without Harrison, but only 13% target per hour run and 14% target share with him on field. In Harrison's return game, he out-targeted Wilson 7-3 before leaving early, with Wilson getting only four targets in the fourth quarter. New Cardinals coaching staff (Nathaniel Hackett, Carson Beck) and uncertainty around quarterback situation (Jacoby Brissett vs. rookie Beck) further complicate Wilson's outlook, as his production has only materialized with Brissett under center.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveRole51:49
Parker Washington's role in the Jaguars offense has been significantly increased under new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen. He leads the team in targets and is expected to get a very large contract (likely to be signed), which will give people more confidence that his role is further established. Last year, when all three receivers (Washington, Myers, Thomas) were on field, Washington was involved alongside Myers as a clear top-two option.
Insight pageTravis Hunter
PositiveValue51:49
The Jaguars used the number two overall pick in the draft on Travis Hunter, signaling significant investment in the wide receiver room. ETR is really below market on Travis Hunter in the Jaguars wide receiver situation. The crowded receiver room (Washington, Myers, Thomas, Hunter, Nate Borkercher) makes it difficult to parse target distribution, and Hunter's role remains unclear amid established veterans.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue48:41
Justin Herzig loves pairing Zay Flowers with Lamar Jackson as a stacking strategy in best ball, indicating strong confidence in the correlation between the two Ravens players.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 993 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:03My name is Adam Levitan and it is July.
0:06We are rapidly encroaching on peak drafting season. It is time to dive deep into where we think the market is wrong about players.
0:13To discuss this, we are joined by three young men you know and love from three different teams.
0:19First up, Evan Silva from the Ball Knowing team.
0:22Evan, how's it going today? It's going great. I'm up to about 20 drafts under my belt so far.
0:27I mean, Herzig's probably got 300 and Jack's probably pushing for 100.
0:31So I want to hear about how many drafts you guys have done so far as of July 1st, 2026.
0:37Well, there you have the right man on because Justin Herzig, king of all best ball virgins, is with us today.
0:44Herzig, how many drafts have you done? How's it going?
0:47I mean, I think yesterday I did 101, but it's okay.
0:50They were auto-drafted. There's some strategy behind that, guys.
0:53Don't worry. But now that it's July, are we no longer virgins?
0:56Can we at least maybe have a little post-coitus?
0:59Where are we at? Yes. At this point, yes.
1:02As we get into July, and once we get past July 4th, I consider it peak drafting season.
1:07So yes, we're in the clear. Anyways, Jack Miller, hopefully you guys are listening to on the Establish the Edge projection shows with Gretch.
1:15And Mark, highly, highly recommend you tune in to that.
1:18But Jack Miller from the projections team, how's it going today?
1:21It's going well. I've actually slowed down on drafting since we've started that podcast, just because I think it's really helpful for my process.
1:28And I hope it's helpful for everyone else to talk through everything with Gretch and really formulae my takes better before I
1:35start going really high volume later this month. But I'm excited to be here on a bit of a podcasting tear lately.
1:42But good to be here on the main ETR feed.
1:45All right. On today's show, we're going to hopefully answer a lot of your questions.
1:49I get messages all the time. Adam, why are you guys so high on X player?
1:54Or why are you so low on Y player?
1:57Today is your lucky day, because we are going to look at these spots.
2:01Our ETR rankings are furthest off average draft position.
2:04I want to be clear here that the ETR ranks are a combination of our modeling slash algorithms, ball knowing, input from everyone on our NFL team.
2:12In other words, I might not agree with all our stances we're going to talk about here today, but we're going to
2:19talk through all of them, which I think will help just talking through it.
2:23Before we get into it, reminder, our NFL early bird bundle product is now live.
2:28That combines DraftKings Pro, aka Silva's Top 150, all our ETR ranks, tons more, combines that with our in-season product, aka all
2:34our projections, premium shows, Silva's matchups, and more. For details on the early bird price on bundle, head to the subscribe tab on establishtherun.com.
2:42All right. Let's get into it here on biggest ADP disagreements.
2:45One that we have been rounds, I mean rounds below ADP on for the last two months, is Makai Lemon, Eagles rookie wide receiver.
2:52We are at 104 overall in the DK best ball ranks.
2:56Market is at 88 overall. We've talked about this a little bit already, Silva.
3:00I know you came out of the gates lower than market on Makai Lemon.
3:04Any updated thoughts on Makai Lemon, and how do you feel about being well behind market here?
3:09Well, it looks like his ADP, Makai Lemon's ADP right now is 88.
3:13I'm at 93, and the ETR ranks are at 104.
3:16Yeah. So the ETR ranks are actually substantially lower on Makai Lemon than even I am.
3:21And I've been saying since the draft that I did not think that this was a good, an ideal landing spot for
3:28Makai Lemon from a fantasy football standpoint. I mean, I really like the pick for the Eagles.
3:33I think Makai Lemon is going to be a stud.
3:36I just, I don't think he's going to play in two receiver sets right out of the gate.
3:42And I think that the Eagles are going to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL.
3:47And I think that where Jalen Hurts throws the football best is not necessarily where Makai Lemon is going to be winning on the field.
3:55So I'm sticking with my number 93 ranking, you know, going forward.
3:59But I do think it's interesting to see that the ETR projection-based ranks are substantially lower.
4:04Yeah. Well, Jack, from a projection standpoint, obviously we give Saquon Barkley a bunch of rushing touchdowns.
4:09We give Jalen Hurts a bunch of rushing touchdowns.
4:11You have the Dallas Goddard with a really high touchdown rate last year.
4:15You get Devontae Smith. And then you also have Dontavian Wicks.
4:19Now, that's a big question to me. Is Dontavian Wicks going to be opposite Devontae Smith in two wide receiver sets and
4:26Makai Lemon only plays in three wide receiver sets?
4:28There was speculation from Zach Berman in The Athletic today that Makai Lemon's rough projection from him was like 550, 600 receiving yards or something like that.
4:36That felt a little low to me. But Jack, maybe you can talk through some of the inputs we have here on Makai Lemon.
4:44Yeah, there are certain spots where it doesn't feel great being low on a guy because he's so talented.
4:50Lemon is one where he's clearly extremely talented. But I actually feel quite good about where the inputs come in because we
4:56have them projected, I think, pretty aggressively. We only have them for a half a percent target share less than Carnell Tate,
5:03despite a significant difference in draft capital. We have the Eagles as, I believe, the second fewest, third fewest, sorry, team pass attempts in the league.
5:11So there's just not that much to go around.
5:14And like you guys have said, it sounds like Dontavian Wicks is currently leading for the second outside receiver spot.
5:20Lemon mostly played in the slot in college. He did have a big yards per hour run on the outside, so I think he can do it.
5:28But I think early on, Philadelphia is going to keep him in the slot.
5:32We have Lemon well ahead of Wicks, assuming that he will overtake him at some point.
5:37But like I said, we have Lemon for a pretty substantial target share, given his draft capital higher than someone like Casey
5:44Concepcion right on the heels of Carnell Tate. And we still come in well below ADP.
5:49So I feel pretty good about the rank, to be honest.
5:52Yeah. You know, from a best ball perspective, Herzig, I really like Jalen Hurts.
5:56And I take a lot of Jalen Hurts, which is tough to square with this Makai Lemon situation because you have to
6:03reach so far above our rank to get Makai Lemon.
6:06Now, the only way that I've done it is sometimes when I have like pick one, pick two, or pick three.
6:12That has been a range where I can go Lemon Hurts back to back or Hurts Lemon back to back.
6:18And that's pretty much the only time that I've done it here.
6:22Herzig, any thoughts on Makai Lemon best ball? Yeah, I think just the range of outcomes here, there's a lot more risk than we're making in.
6:30I do agree like, hey, you know, talented wide receiver.
6:33We're excited about the prospect profile. We can see a world where this works out really well for both the Eagles and Makai Lemon as a player.
6:41But I think the downside situations are just Evan kind of talks about the middle of the field, the rushing profile.
6:48This is going to be as a team. It's just not a player I want to invest in.
6:53Yeah, I mean, the way that I think it goes well for Makai Lemon is just Kevin Petula was such a dunce
7:00that Jalen Hurts comes out this year and starts shredding.
7:03And AJ Brown is gone. And Makai Lemon can do some of those things.
7:07And Jalen Hurts ends up having a really big year.
7:10The defensive regresses, which I don't think it will.
7:13I mean, Eagles defense is absolutely loaded. But defense regresses a little bit, creates some more shootouts.
7:18It's just kind of a thin line, I think.
7:21So I agree with all the guys. I feel pretty good about our Makai Lemon stance.
7:26Let's go to Jaden Daniels. This is the quarterback on a percentage basis that we're most higher on first market.
7:32We were at 54 overall on Jaden Daniels. ADP is 69.
7:35Herzig, I feel like the best ball community maybe got burned by taking Jaden Daniels round three, round four last year, and
7:42just does not want to take him again here this year.
7:45If you go back and look at what Jaden Daniels did as a pure rookie with not a lot of talent around
7:52him, and with the fake sharp Cliff Kingsbury as a coordinator, it was legit special.
7:56So I feel good about being ahead of market on Jaden.
8:00Herzig, where are you at on Jaden Daniels? Yeah, this is my highest drafted QB right now in best ball.
8:06And there's just a lot of things that I like about it.
8:10I agree with you. That rookie season was phenomenal.
8:12I think because of his injury last year, people just kind of forgot about it.
8:17Maybe they feel there was going to be that sophomore slum for something, but a healthy Jaden Daniels.
8:22And the biggest difference here is you no longer have Cliff Kingsbury.
8:26You have David Blau's been promoted, and his quotes this offseason have been fantastic for Jaden Daniels.
8:31He says the offense is going to be like an aggressive balance attack.
8:35They'll probably have more under center than we've had in the past.
8:39Under Kingsbury, Daniels was under center for just 32 dropbacks across the two seasons.
8:43By far the lowest in the NFL. Now we're talking about he's going to have a ton under center.
8:49And why do we care about that? Because under center reps, that leads to more play action.
8:54Play action is one of the most efficient things that an offense can do.
8:58And so, you know, I think there's just a lot of high upside opportunities, not only from the run game with Jaden
9:05Daniels, but also just from a, hey, this passing game could be really strong.
9:09And he fits the roster construction I'm looking for for best ball.
9:13I love grabbing a QB in that area because I can still have that optionality.
9:17Get another one in the middle area. Get two later.
9:21Build highly correlated. We're high on Terry McLaurin. So it fits really well.
9:24Yeah. From a season-long perspective, Silva, Jaden Daniels fits, you know, I think really well as part of like a 12-team home
9:31league where he's not that expensive and he can create big edges for you on a week-to-week basis.
9:37Silva is at 63 overall. That's one spot behind Joe Burrow in Silva's top 150.
9:41Silva, how do you feel about ETR being so much higher than market on Jaden Daniels?
9:46I like it. I like it a lot. I'm higher than market on Jaden Daniels as well.
9:51And I've been getting him. It's easy to draw a straight line, too, for stacking between Jaden Daniels and Terry McLaurin and Jaden Daniels and Chig Okonkwo.
10:00So that's a very fun bill. I love hearing that Justin Herzig, dubbed by Rolling Stone the greatest fantasy football player of
10:06all time, is high on Jaden Daniels as well because I feel like I am.
10:11I've been getting him in drafts. I think that, yeah, that's a great way to build a roster, I think.
10:17Absolutely. Yeah. I think that's just like a really simple, straightforward one.
10:21We can move on there. I don't think there's a lot of disagreement.
10:24I haven't gotten messages. Let's put it that way.
10:27I've gotten a lot of messages about Makai Lemon.
10:30I haven't gotten as many messages like, why are you guys so high on Jaden Daniels?
10:35Let's go to number three on the list here.
10:38And by the way, we're going to do 15 here today.
10:41Number three on the list. I feel like it's a controversial one, Jack.
10:45Rome Odunze. We were at 76 overall. ADP is 59.
10:48I've seen some hateful stuff out there. People love to like, oh, you're an idiot.
10:52You think that Luther Burden is going to outscore Rome at Dunze?
10:56Look at their draft capital. Look at the catchable target rate from Caleb last year.
11:01You know, Roma Dunze never had a chance. My take was just simply without getting into all the inputs and the projections,
11:07Ben Johnson handpicked Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, and he inherited Roma Dunze, who has a foot injury.
11:13And just, you know, I can say he was hurt or whatever last year, catchable ball stuff, whatever, just has not been that good.
11:20Like 1.3 yards per route run. So I personally feel pretty good about being pro-Loveland Burden down on a Dunze.
11:26There's other people, Jack, that would say, well, you guys should be high on all three.
11:31So Jack, what do you think about the push and pull going on here with a Dunze in the Bears past catching core?
11:38Yeah, from a projection standpoint, we have Burden and Rome pretty close to each other in targets.
11:43We have Burden three targets ahead right now. So very tight gap.
11:47But the difference in efficiency is pretty substantial. Rome has been at 7.3 yards per target.
11:52In back-to-back years, you mentioned the yards per route run.
11:55He's at 1.33 career yards per route run. Marvin Harrison, for reference, is at 1.61.
11:59Jacob Sanderson tweeted that out yesterday. And the difference in public opinion on how people view Marvin Harrison just being this complete
12:06bust versus Roma Dunze being a guy who's really going to kick it into high gear in year three.
12:12It's a big difference in how people treat these players.
12:15And at the end of the day, Burden and Loveland were significantly better than Rome has ever been at the NFL level.
12:22And so we're still giving Rome a lot of credit from a volume standpoint because he did still earn targets at a decent level.
12:29Last year, he was at 0.23 targets per route run, which is good, but it's not absolutely elite.
12:34But the difference in efficiency between Loveland and Burden and Rome is really driving the gap.
12:39And given what we've seen from Rome, I feel pretty good about where we are.
12:44Evan is also below market in his top 150.
12:47He's at 70th overall here on Roma Dunze. Evan, what do you think about the Bears and Rome this year?
12:53Yeah, and I don't think I've drafted Roma Dunze once so far.
12:56And you summed it up well at the top.
12:59I mean, it's the foot injury. He's been a disappointment in the NFL so far as Roma Dunze.
13:05He was inherited. I don't think that we shouldn't forget about that.
13:08He was inherited. I also think that he could get kind of lost on the outside of the offense as a sacrificial
13:15X while the passing game runs through the middle of the field with Luther Burden playing on the interior and Colston Loveland and a lot of run plays.
13:24I mean, the Bears are going to run the ball a lot.
13:27So I do kind of think that it does scare me to have zero Roma Dunze because I think that he could have a big touchdown year.
13:35I mean, he's 6'3", 212. And I mean, he's going to be on the field when they're in scoring position.
13:41And I think Caleb Williams has a chance at a monster season this year, like, you know, 40 touchdowns sort of season.
13:48And Roma Dunze can get there that way. But I think in terms of volume, this offense is going to run through
13:55Colston, Loveland, Luther Burden in the run game. Yeah.
13:58And like, you know, it being anchored to math, like, you know, we can mess with the ceiling outcomes and stuff like that.
14:05But it's going to be really hard for us to get there on all three where they go.
14:10Loveland, Burden, and a Dunze. I'm not saying that's the right way to think about it.
14:15I'm not saying that we shouldn't be overstacking in spots like this or whatever.
14:19But Rome, if I had to pick between the three, for sure, Rome would be last for me.
14:25Number four on the list here, Herzig. This is a tough one for me.
14:29Amari and Hampton. We are at 21 overall. ADP is 15 and a half.
14:33I have tried this year to not, like, be as player-takey as IK being in the first two to three rounds.
14:40Like, I want to be flattered with my exposures in best ball in rounds one and round two.
14:45Whereas last year, you know, it actually worked out for me last year.
14:49Like, you know, some of the guys that I had big fades on in round one, Jenty or Justin Jefferson or what, I don't even remember.
14:57But like, it actually worked out. But I don't think that's necessarily right.
15:01Like, where I think we win is not by taking stands in round one or round two.
15:06So, I understand we're being low market. We can talk to Evan and Jack about why.
15:11But when you're talking about a guy with an ADP of 15.5 Herzig, can we really end up with none of him while we're doing best ball?
15:19Yeah. I think your logic makes sense for best ball.
15:22I mean, at the end of the day, for redraft, like, you want to choose the best guys and you're going to take more of a stand.
15:30I think for best ball, for me, it comes down to this is more of a fade the price, not the player kind of thing.
15:38I mean, if we think about, hey, he was a good prospect coming out of college, not elite, but pretty solid.
15:44Got that first round capital. Those first four games, he had elite flashes in that pre-injury sample, but also value came from he was high volume.
15:52He had a lot of work in the passing game usage.
15:56After the injury, he didn't get that volume. He didn't really show that efficiency.
16:00So, there was some kind of concern there. For me, it comes down to what is the risk?
16:05And I think he carries a lot of it for a early second round draft pick.
16:10Like, is he actually good enough to have an elite season on efficiency?
16:14Maybe. Is he going to have a high volume role after, you know, invested heavily in Keaton Mitchell?
16:20They still liked Kamani Vidal last year. And you have Mike Medano coming over.
16:24The backfield has always been committees. We've seen it with the A-chan Mostert.
16:28Like, I thought coming into this year, I was going to be pretty happy drafting him in the third round.
16:34But now he's going early second. And there's just a lot of other guys I like better than him.
16:40Yeah. Silva's at 23 overall. So, even lower than ETR is Silva here on Amari and Hampton.
16:45It scares me because, like, I want to bet on this offense, especially if you guaranteed me Slater and Alt would stay healthy.
16:52It certainly scares me, Evan. But, yeah, you're in lockstep here with the ETR ranks.
16:57What do you think about Hampton? It scares me.
16:59This is another one that scares me, especially from a touchdown standpoint.
17:03I like to draft dudes in offenses that I think have a chance to be prolific.
17:08I think the Bears have a chance to be prolific.
17:11And I think the Chargers are going to be prolific.
17:14It's just, you know, Herzog kind of talked about it.
17:17I think that there is some threat that there could be like a three-way sort of RBBC with the Chargers where Kamani Vidal is coming in for passing.
17:26Now, it's not getting the ball a lot, but coming in for passing now as they loved his pass protection last year.
17:32You know, they gave Keaton Mitchell some money. And he fits the Mike McDaniel sort of, you know, the way that he
17:39wants to give the ball to players that can break big plays.
17:43And that's the name of the game for Keaton Mitchell.
17:46And then Omari and Hampton is inherited by Mike McDaniel.
17:49So that's like the Bear case on Omari and Hampton.
17:52The Bull case is like, man, this guy could lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
17:56That's very much within his range of potential outcomes behind an offensive line that is getting back Slater and Alt and adding
18:03in Mike McDaniel, who we've talked about, you know, is truly an offensive magician.
18:07Yeah, I think from a projection standpoint, Jack, one thing that people forget about the Chargers, and we forgot to talk about
18:14it on the coaching change pod, was Mike McDaniel tends to play slow.
18:18So, you know, from a plays-per-game perspective, you start to say, well, they're not going to run.
18:23They're not going to be at the Saints. They're not going to run a zillion plays a game.
18:29And then it's very crowded. You know, Evan and Herzig both mentioned the backfield, but that doesn't count.
18:34All the other guys, all the big, nice tight end room, nice wide receiver room also.
18:39So it starts to get really crowded here also.
18:42And when we get into these teams that are like really crowded, that can just push them down from a math perspective.
18:48So yeah, Jack, any quick thoughts on Hampton ETR rank here?
18:52Yeah, I mentioned at the top with Lemon that there's some guys that it doesn't feel great being low on, and he wasn't the case with that.
19:00I think Hampton is the case with that. But we do have it as a three-way split, like these guys said.
19:06It seems like they like Vidal. I think the two spots where we could be wrong is if they phase out Kamani
19:13Vidal as the season goes on, or if the Chargers offense just goes as scorched earth as the best ball market seems to be hoping it does.
19:21Our projections are based on the implied team total.
19:24So the betting market isn't really giving them credit for being potentially a top five offense, or at least that's not their medium.
19:31And if that does happen, we're going to be low Hampton.
19:34It's definitely a scary fade. But as long as it's a three-man backfield in a good but not hyper elite offense, that's
19:41kind of where the rank ends up. Yep. And you're going to get a chance in season long to take guys like
19:48Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker ahead of Amarin Hampton. And I think all of us would probably do that right now, right?
19:54Okay. Let's go to the big dog. Man, you know, I'm going to go to Herzig on this.
20:00Since we've been doing this, and this is, you know, I believe it's going to be our eighth football season at ETR.
20:06I believe this is the first time that the ETR ranks are ahead of market on Derrick Henry.
20:12And that's embarrassing to say because Derrick Henry like shoves it down our throat year after year.
20:17And I think what has happened a lot was like the truest of true outliers in the model in terms of regressing touchdown rate and yards per carry.
20:26It's really hard for the model to figure out that Derrick Henry is like a god amongst humans.
20:31You know what I mean? Like really, really, really tough.
20:34This year, we are actually ahead of market on Derrick Henry.
20:37We're at 15 overall. ADP is 20. So Herzig, how do you feel about for the first time?
20:43And by the way, I do think like we're working on stuff in the background with the data side team to get
20:50better at like the Derrick Henry type outliers. And that might be some of the effects flowing through here.
20:55But yeah, anyways, Herzig, how does it feel to be ahead of market on Derrick Henry for the first time in the history, the illustrious history of ETR?
21:04Dirty, shocking, confusing, all those words. But even when you think back to like two, three, four years ago, when we were
21:11comparing Derrick Henry, we were also comparing him to backs that were expected to get tons of volume to today's NFL has changed.
21:18You don't have nearly as many backs that have the type of workload volume that we're expecting for Derrick Henry.
21:24So first off, uncontested from a volume monster. There's no new competition in that backfield.
21:28The Ravens have an 11 and a half win total.
21:31Derrick Henry. I know we don't care that much about player props, but he's projected to have the most rushing yards in the league at 1250.
21:39Like there's a level of just safety with him from a late first round pick.
21:44But also we know his weekly and kind of the stretches he can go on and play off and the fantasy playoffs like fading him.
21:51It's a bet on decreasing efficiency at that age.
21:54I get it. But last year, we didn't really see that much efficiency loss.
21:58Like we saw some, but some can be attributed also to Lamar being hurt, missing some games and not playing his best.
22:05If you look at it from a yards after contact, it actually slightly increased a tad last year.
22:11So I think like he really does fit into that outlier.
22:14And so now our question is like, do we believe this positive regression story tied to a healthy Lamar?
22:20I think we do. The market agrees with it.
22:22He just feels like a high median, high upside play specifically for half PPR and okay for PPR.
22:28Yeah. I mean, the, the market, the, the drafting market, I think what they're thinking to themselves, Evan is like the bottom
22:35has to fall out at some point. Derek Henry is 32 years old now.
22:39That's the only hole that I can possibly see why people aren't willing to pull the trigger on Derek Henry.
22:45Silva is at 17 overall. So I'm right between ETRs ranks and ADP.
22:49And that's, I like to be, I like to be in that spot.
22:53Yeah. Um, I do, I would like to hear what would the proposal be for when you do go to the data
23:00science team and need to adjust for outliers? Like how about like a Marvel superhero rating where Derek Henry is a 10
23:06and like Braxton Berrios is the zero. See, the thing is, man, where it gets tricky is people are going to say
23:13that they found the next Derek Henry. They found the next to Sean Jackson and they actually haven't.
23:18So I don't want to mark someone as a superhero and change everything in the model.
23:23And then it's like, oh, actually it turned out no one on earth is Derek Henry.
23:28You know what I mean? So it's, it's complicated there for sure.
23:32I will say though, thanks to Silva, uh, who has been on the big dog.
23:36Thou shall not fade the big dog. I believe was a shirt that we had in the merch store for a while.
23:43So Silva has been on big dog for the last eight years or however long we've been doing this.
23:49All right, let's go to number six on the list here.
23:52DJ more. We are behind market. ETR rank is 55 on DJ more ADP is 46.
23:57So we have not talked a lot about DJ more this season.
24:01It's an interesting spot. You know, bills gave up a ton, a ton to get DJ more to try to be the alpha for Josh Allen.
24:09I think people's question is, is DJ more good enough to be the alpha or does Buffalo even want an alpha?
24:15They've had very flat target shares and a very run heavy scheme a lot under Joe Brady.
24:20So Evan, what do you think about DJ more first year here in Buffalo?
24:25He's pushing 30. We just saw one of the, you know, the, the, the true offensive masterminds in the NFL, Ben Johnson
24:31actively proactively reduce DJ more's role and then trade him away.
24:35I mean, he has a chance to be Josh Allen's number one receiver.
24:39That's enticing in and of itself. But if you look at the player, I mean, I think that DJ more is a good addition for the bills.
24:47I don't know that he's going to be really truly treated like an alpha pass catcher.
24:52I don't know that the, that he has that in him at his, this stage of his career.
24:57So I'm a little bit behind market and behind the ETR rankings on DJ more.
25:02And I have not been drafting him. Yeah. So it was at 59 overall here.
25:06So even lower than us on DJ more, Jack, people are going to say what Evan said.
25:11How can you guys not be higher on the number one target for the best quarterback in the NFL?
25:17I mean, and I get that kind of thinking, but maybe you can talk a little bit about how we see DJ more from projection standpoint.
25:25Yeah. Last year was just pretty concerning. He didn't have a single game higher than a 20.6% target share.
25:31Once Rome went down, he had a 9%, 18% and 20.6% target share.
25:35And during those three games, Luther Burden never exceeded a 66% route share.
25:39He was competing for targets with guys like Olamide Zaccheaus and today Walker, and he still wasn't dominating volume.
25:45His yards per hour run has been declining all the way down to 1.33 last year.
25:49He's getting older. Like Silva said, I'm just not sure he's the same receiver that he was four or five years ago.
25:56And we're actually in line on underdog with DJ Moore, but the DraftKings best ball drafters are a lot higher on him, evidently.
26:03And so we come in behind ADP there. But personally, I kind of like where Silva has him even more than our projections.
26:10I don't love DJ Moore this year, to be honest.
26:13All right. Let's go to number seven on the list.
26:16Garrett Wilson, Jets receiver. ETR rank is 29 on full PPR.
26:20DraftKings ADP is 39. Herzig, I feel like this is just a spot where people don't want to draft Jets.
26:26Garrett Wilson has had some huge target share games and projected target share seasons.
26:30How far ahead of ADP? Well, how do you feel about us being so far ahead of ADP on Garrett Wilson, I guess, first Terzor?
26:38It's a little concerning. But I will say, like, when you look at the numbers and you think about what the upside
26:44is, and as you mentioned, like that expected target share and Geno Smith might be the best quarterback he's had in the NFL.
26:51Like, it's really ugly. I think from a basketball perspective, my biggest concern is being overweight, someone that I don't actually want
26:58to get their stack partner later on in the draft because I'm not convinced, you know, Smith will definitely be playing in the fantasy playoffs.
27:06So that's definitely a risk. But with us being 10 spots ahead and where he often falls, I'm usually like pulling up
27:12like Lad McConkie, Mechik Buka, maybe even T Higgins above him, knowing I can still often get him on that next round.
27:19So it's not someone I'm like reaching to grab at our price, but when he's near that ADP, I'm happily taking him.
27:26Yeah. Silva's a little bit lower in his top 150.
27:29Silva is at 41 overall. Silva's our half PPR ranks, which I think makes a big difference for the Garrett Wilson case.
27:35But also Silva, I mean, I can't believe I'm saying this, but it's getting crowded in New York.
27:41They have a lot of mouths to feed on an offense that is quarterbacked by Geno Smith and coordinated by Frank Reich.
27:48So Silva, you're like, you're going to be, I mean, the season long market, you might be like in line here at 41.
27:55What do you think about Garrett Wilson? Yeah, I mean, I like him okay.
27:59It's just, I like all these receivers better than him.
28:02Lad McConkie, Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Luther Burden.
28:06You know, those are the receivers that I have ahead of Garrett Wilson.
28:10I'm not going to take him over any of them, obviously.
28:13The Jets did add two first round pass catchers.
28:16I've been taking some A.D. Mitchell late in drafts.
28:18You know, this will be his first full season as a Jet.
28:22And I'm really high on Brees Hall and think that he will make a big impact as a pass catcher as well this year.
28:29So, I mean, I like Garrett Wilson okay. I just don't like him as much as the market, clearly.
28:35Yeah. I mean, what do you think about this, Jack?
28:38Garrett Wilson has earned huge target shares when competing with, like, no one.
28:42And now, at least in theory, they have Omar Cooper.
28:45They have Sadiq. They have A.D. Mitchell. Brees is going to earn a bunch of targets as well.
28:51And maybe, like, these huge target share games for Garrett Wilson aren't going to be sticky when he has actual NFL competition around him.
28:58Any thoughts on that, Jack? Or how do you feel about our Garrett Wilson rank?
29:02Yeah, it's a fair point. The only pushback I'd have there is that we're not really projecting him to have the same
29:09volume that he said in the past. He had a 33% target share last year.
29:14He was down a little bit when competing with Devontae Adams in 2024.
29:18But he had a 28% target share in 2023.
29:20We're at 25.5% target share. And I'll also add that it hasn't been a terrific start from a news standpoint on the guys the Jets have added.
29:29Omar Cooper, it sounds like, really hasn't even started pushing A.D.
29:32Mitchell for the wide receiver two role yet. And Sadiq has missed a lot of the offseason with a hernia surgery.
29:38And the other thing on Wilson is he's at 6.9 career yards per target in the same way that Derrick Henry's efficiency
29:45gets pulled down by the algorithms because it's so unprecedented.
29:48Garrett Wilson's naturally gets pushed up because he's been so inefficient.
29:52And he has, hopefully, a quarterback improvement coming. So we're at 7.2 yards per target ahead of Wilson's career efficiency.
29:58It doesn't feel great given that he's on the Jets.
30:01I think the points Herzig made about the lack of a stack partner are fair.
30:05But the volume does project to be really good.
30:08And hopefully, he can get a little bit more efficient with Gino.
30:12All right. I think this is one of those players, Adam, where all those reasons why we don't want to pick him
30:18and we're still so ahead of market, it usually means those are actually good picks.
30:23Like when our numbers team considers and continues to look at it and the market is still scared of him for all
30:30the reasons we've referenced, but we're still ahead of ADP.
30:33I think that's one of those opportunities. You know what?
30:36Lean into it and just accept it. Because everyone else that's thinking the same thing as you, there's a reason why his ADP keeps dropping.
30:43100%. That's like DFS 101. You know, when we've looked at the projection a million times and people still don't want to
30:50play it, that's a great play in DFS also.
30:53All right. Oh my God. The Steelers stuff, Jack.
30:55This is maybe the top or number two question that I've gotten.
30:59Why are you guys so high on the Steelers?
31:02We could have picked a lot of different Steelers to talk about.
31:06Here, we're higher than market on Rico Dowdle, on Jeremy Bernard.
31:09But the one I want to focus on here is DK Metcalf.
31:13We are at 66 overall. ADP is 75. I mean, people think that we have this like huge hard on for the Steelers.
31:20I don't think that we do. It's just no one on earth wants to click Steelers stuff, period.
31:25So Jack, what do you think about DK Metcalf?
31:28We're ahead of market there and why we are so far ahead on pretty much all Steelers stuff.
31:33Yeah. I actually tweeted out a thread explaining our exact DK Metcalf projection because we got so many questions.
31:39So I'll kind of outline the same thing here.
31:42We have the Steelers for the second fewest plays per game.
31:45Last year, they had the fifth fewest. We have them 12th in drop back rate.
31:50Last year, they were 12th and we have them for the seventh fewest offensive touchdowns per game, which is in accordance with their implied team totals.
31:58We have DK Metcalf half a yard per target below his career efficiency.
32:02The one spot when I tweeted the thread out that we got a little bit of pushback was on the actual target share for Metcalf.
32:09We have Metcalf with a 19% target share. We have Pittman at 18.5.
32:13I know there's a contingent that thinks Pittman should be ahead, which is fair.
32:17I'll add that we're also high on Pittman. So if you like Pittman more than that, you can draft Pittman instead of
32:24Metcalf because we like both of them. And it's really just a team-wide Steelers thing that we're high on.
32:30But I think that all of our numbers are pretty reasonable and pretty in line with the market of other projection sources I've looked at.
32:37So I feel pretty solid about where we have Metcalf and the rest of the Steelers.
32:42Yeah. Evan, we've talked about how DK Metcalf isn't necessarily the best fit for Aaron Rodgers, who likes to get the ball out quick.
32:50DK Metcalf obviously does his best work deeper down the field.
32:53I believe that's why Silva has Michael Pittman three spots ahead of DK Metcalf in his rankings, 86 versus 89.
32:59Silva, go ahead on DK Metcalf. Yeah, I think that Pittman's just clearly a better fit with Aaron Rodgers than DK Metcalf
33:06and bringing in Jeremy Bernard in the second round too.
33:09You know, they tried to get Makai Lemon in the first round.
33:12They wound up taking Jeremy Bernard in the second round.
33:16That's going to affect DK Metcalf. Aaron Rodgers still going to throw the crap out of the ball to the running backs.
33:22I did see Scott Barrett trying to create a splinter at ETR between us, Jack.
33:27I just want to say I have your back over Scott's any day of the week.
33:32But I do like Michael Pittman better than DK Metcalf.
33:35Okay. Let's go to number nine. I appreciate that, Silva.
33:38What's that? I appreciate that. Of course, man. Let's go to number nine here, Silva.
33:42And it is Brock Purdy. ETR is at 83 overall on Brock Purdy.
33:46ADP on Purdy is 97. I just don't think people realize how good of a fantasy quarterback Brock Purdy has been.
33:53Period. Like a little bit of rushing, but really good touchdown rates.
33:56And like when you play for Kyle Shanahan, you don't have to be the best quarterback in the world to put up great numbers.
34:04And so people can bash Brock Purdy's natural talent all they want.
34:07And Miko loves to say that Brock Purdy is just a Shanahan scheme merchant.
34:12I don't really care. You know, so I don't think that really matters.
34:15Silva, where you at on Brock Purdy? Again, ETR is like a round and a half ahead of ADP on Brock Purdy.
34:22Yeah, I'm below ETR's ranks and ADP. But I think that I'm generally lower on almost all the quarterbacks because my rankings
34:29are geared towards season long where you can, you know, generally speaking, you can wait on quarterback.
34:34You can also build a sort of anti-Purdy case fairly easily because George Kittle is coming off a torn Achilles.
34:40Because Mike Evans, although I love Mike, I love the idea of Mike Evans in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
34:46Mike Evans is old. You know, Christian McCaffrey is getting older.
34:49So you can build an anti-Brock Purdy case. I don't want to be anti-Brock Purdy.
34:54I like Brock Purdy. I definitely think he's better than just a creation of the Kyle Shanahan scheme because he can do things off script.
35:01I mean, he can make plays with his legs.
35:04So I don't think he's just a product of the scheme either.
35:08I just, you know, I'm lower than him because of the way that I do the rankings, I think.
35:14Yeah, and from a season-long perspective, obviously, like, only 12 quarterbacks are going to matter each week in season-long fantasy.
35:20Silva has Purdy as his QB 13 behind Jackson Dart, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott.
35:25I know, Jack, it's really close for us between, like, a lot of those guys.
35:29If you just move around our quarterback stuff just a little bit, we get big-time different rankings there between that, like, Purdy
35:36to Lawrence range or Purdy to Nick's range. So, Jack, any thoughts on why we're so far ahead of market here on Purdy?
35:43It is really close. We mentioned on the Establish the Edge podcast with Gretch that the difference between our QB 7 and
35:50our QB 17 is 10 total fantasy points. So that's half a fantasy point per game we're talking about.
35:55We're splitting hairs here. Purdy, pretty specifically, the scramble rate jump I don't think people are maybe giving proper credit for.
36:02He had a 3.5% scramble rate as a rookie.
36:04He was 8.2% in 2024 and 6.5% last year.
36:07So we're talking a scramble rate basically doubling. That's an extra carry per game.
36:11That's a pretty big deal from a projection standpoint.
36:14And, I mean, last year he only played nine games.
36:17It's easier to have outlier performance in a limited sample.
36:20Compared to someone who played the entire season. But he was the QB 2 on a points per game basis.
36:26I mean, he's shown a high level ceiling. Josh Allen was the only quarterback who scored more fantasy points per game last year.
36:33So, I feel pretty good about the Purdy stance.
36:36Yeah, I mean, my biggest concern on Purdy is kind of the weaponry stuff that Silva mentioned.
36:41Christian McCaffrey, older, ton of tread on his tires now.
36:44George Cato coming off Achilles tear. And Mike Evans dealing with the hamstring stuff last year and he's old.
36:50If you don't have those guys, it's going to be really hard for Brock Purdy.
36:55You know, really hard. So, I do think maybe there's a little bit more risk there than our rank shows on Purdy.
37:01But, again, it's super tight at quarterback. I'm mostly just stacking through that range.
37:06Speaking of stacking, Herzig, let's go to number 10 on the list.
37:09Which is going to be two Minnesota Vikings. We are 14 spots ahead of market on Jordan Addison.
37:15And 12 spots ahead of market on Kyler. Murray, Herzig, how do you feel about that?
37:20You're going to end up with a bunch of Vikings stacks in best ball if you're following the rankings to a tee.
37:26Yeah, I mean, forget about J.J. McCarthy. We love Kevin O'Connell offenses.
37:30And that's what this is also a major bet on.
37:33It's also a question of, specifically for Jordan Addison, like, do you believe that Jawan Jennings, that signing substantially hurts him?
37:39And does it hurt him more than that Kyler's signing helps?
37:43Because last year, Addison finished the wide receiver of 43.
37:46This year, I think he's being drafted right at about that from an ADP standpoint.
37:50But his first two years, he was back-to-back top 24 wide receiver finishes.
37:54And so I'm far more likely to say last year's, you know, struggle was far more of a J.J.
38:00McCarthy. And there is some data to actually prove that out.
38:04In the games with McCarthy, he averaged 33 yards per game.
38:07In the five-game sample with Carson Wentz, 77 yards per game.
38:10Like, I believe last year can be attributed to that J.J.
38:14M. We get Kyler in. We get the Kevin O'Connell.
38:17I think this makes Addison a much stronger bet to return closer to that top 24 finish than his current ADP, which
38:23I think is, like, wide receiver 41. Yeah, I take this a lot, Silva.
38:28I take this, like, I like Justin Jefferson in round one.
38:31Sometimes he slips, I think, past where he should.
38:34I like Addison. I like Kyler. And when I do that, like, tacking on Hawkinson is not that difficult either.
38:40My biggest argument for this, Silva, is that if you look back at the quarterbacks Kevin O'Connell has had, they have not been world beaters.
38:47They have not been stars. They have all performed well under Kevin O'Connell except this clown J.J.
38:53McCarthy. Like, every single – I'm talking about, like, Josh Dobbs.
38:56Like, everyone has performed well except J.J. McCarthy. So, that's, like, my single data point that I keep paying my hat on you.
39:03And even J.J. McCarthy had a few decent fantasy games.
39:06What did you say? Even J.J. McCarthy had a decent number of decent fantasy games last year.
39:11Yeah, he had some efficient single touchdowns there. Also, that allowed him to have a couple good games.
39:17So, yeah, Silva is at 91 overall on Addison and 124 on Kyler Murray.
39:21Silva, how do you feel about Addison and Kyler here this year?
39:25Yeah, so, again, it's almost the same deal with Brock Purdy in terms of where Kyler Murray is ranked.
39:30He's in a massive tier with, like, 11 other guys.
39:33My quarterback tiers are up on the site. You can see it.
39:37It's, like, the biggest – it's the biggest tier of all the tiers at the quarterback position.
39:42Jordan Addison, yeah, I'm higher than ADP on him, and I've been getting him.
39:46So, I'm right there with – you want to talk about a creation of the Kyle Shanahan system?
39:52That's Jawan Jennings, okay? Jawan Jennings could be out of the NFL after this year.
39:57And we never hear from him again. I mean, he was essentially out of the NFL for, what, a month and a
40:03half after the end of free agency. So, that's the creation of the Shanahan system, not Brock Purdy, Jawan Jennings.
40:09I'm not worried about Jawan Jennings. Yeah, that was my thought, too.
40:13I view Jawan Jennings as, like, a blocker, grinder, not a playmaker that's going to threaten.
40:18He can definitely be an asset to an NFL team.
40:21I don't think he's pulling stuff away from, you know, a first-round pick, Jordan Addison, who's shown, like, serious big playability.
40:27For sure. All right, Jack, let's go to number 11 on the list here.
40:32It is Michael Wilson. This is a really hard one.
40:35We're at 95 overall on Michael Wilson. ADP is 83.
40:38Obviously, Michael Wilson was, like, one of the best wide receivers in the entire NFL in all of fantasy last year when Marvin Harrison was not out there.
40:46The concerning part is even when Michael—and I remember this because we were talking about it a bunch in the DFS stuff.
40:53Even when Marvin Harrison came back, I was like, oh, this is obvious.
40:57Like, Michael Wilson is their number one. He's their alpha.
41:00He's proved it. Marvin Harrison came back and kind of ate his lunch from a target's perspective, which actually surprised me and concerns me.
41:07So, I assume, Jack, that's one of the reasons that the mat has a little bit down on Michael Wilson here.
41:14Any more thoughts on why we are below market by a round on Michael Wilson?
41:18Yeah, the splits are really stark. With Marvin Harrison last year, Michael Wilson had a 13% target per hour run and a 14% target share.
41:26Without him, he was a 29% target per hour run and a 27% target share.
41:30And then, like you said, in the first game, Marvin Harrison came back after two massive Wilson games.
41:36Marvin Harrison out-targeted Wilson 7-3, left again early, and then Wilson ended up getting four targets in the fourth quarter.
41:42I do think this one's really hard. I think the new staff complicates it even further.
41:47I think the potential Brissette versus Beck stuff complicates it even further because Wilson really has only had that level of production with Brissette.
41:54So, what does it look like if a rookie quarterback comes in?
41:58So, I think that this is one where there's a lot of uncertainty, but leaning into the splits when they were both
42:04on the field as well as we're only two years removed from Marvin Harrison getting fourth overall pick draft capital.
42:10We're kind of leaning into that. We still don't have Harrison as some awesome pick or anything, but I think that leads
42:17to us being a little lower on Wilson on DraftKings at least.
42:21I mean, Silva has a big gap here between Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson.
42:25Silva's at 69 overall, Marvin Harrison 108 overall, Michael Wilson here.
42:28So, it sounds like you're down with this fade we have going on Michael Wilson, Evan.
42:33Yeah, I mean, I'm okay with Michael Wilson as a player.
42:37I just hate this offense. I mean, Nathaniel – I don't like Nathaniel Hackett.
42:41I don't like Carson Beck. I don't like the Cardinals, you know, organization at this point.
42:46I'm below ADP on, like, every single Cardinals player because I don't like this offense at all.
42:51So, he's just another one, you know, in the cog.
42:54Yeah, and it's crowded there too. You know what I mean?
42:57Like, you start reducing their dropbacks. Yeah, it is a little crowded.
43:01You start thinking about how many points they're going to score and all of a sudden they have, you know, at least
43:08two running backs they're going to play. They have – Don't you think that they're going to feel somewhat compelled to want to get Marvin Harrison going too?
43:16I mean, maybe he can't get going. Maybe he's incapable of that.
43:20But I think that that's something that the new Cardinals coaching staff is going to want to try to do is get Marvin Harrison going.
43:28And that would probably occur at the expense of Michael Wilson.
43:31Yeah. It's crazy, Herzig. I – if, you know, I'm no talent, bro.
43:35But gun to my head, man, I don't even want to say it because so many people are going to – so
43:42many people are going to come at me. But is it that crazy?
43:45Do you think Michael Wilson might actually be better than Marvin Harrison?
43:49I don't – you know, I'm not – I'm workshopping – well, I don't want to say I'm workshopping that take.
43:56I'll give the take that it's at least in the range of outcomes.
43:59But to Silva's point, once you put forth overall draft capital, at least in theory, you should want Marvin Harrison to succeed.
44:06Yeah, I mean, Michael Wilson was a better football player last year, period, end of conversation.
44:11If that's even possible, then, you know, there's a chance that it might be continue onward.
44:16For me, it comes down to – it stinks like – I don't like the Cardinals at their ADP because I think
44:23there's so much risk of the Jacoby Brissett. I expect there to be, like, that record-level volume of passing to normalize.
44:29But also – and Jack has a great article that touches this – I love their playoff schedule.
44:34They get the Jets, the Saints, and the Raiders.
44:37Like, and if you look at their team totals, it's weird, but their highest team totals are in those last, like, three,
44:44four, five games, which we don't even know if Brissett's going to be playing then, and it's not like we like Carson
44:51Beck that much better, but it's just from a matchup-wise, from a playing in the domes.
44:55So I'm hoping that, like, come August, the market kind of resets and says, like, you know what?
45:01We are overpaying a little much for Jeremiah Love, for Michael Wilson.
45:05Maybe I can, you know, pack my bags then.
45:07But at this current price, yeah, I'm not getting much.
45:10All right. Let's go to Josh Allen. Now, this is not a math one, I don't think, Herzig.
45:16I think the Josh Allen conversation is more about what type of teams do you make when you take a quarterback in round three in best ball.
45:24So we were at 35 overall on Josh Allen.
45:27ADP is 27. I think we don't have to debate Josh Allen.
45:31He is absolutely incredible, incredible fantasy asset. Obviously, real-life quarterback.
45:34Also, that is not the question. When I take Josh Allen in round three, the teams I end up with end up being pretty thin at running back.
45:42And so I haven't done it as much. I also think the argument that, like, hey, Josh Allen scores 30 in the playoffs.
45:49You can't beat that. At tight end, I would agree with you.
45:53That is not the case at quarterback. There are all kinds of quarterbacks that can pop off for 30 and 35 points
45:59and do so regularly on a one-week sample, which could be the fantasy playoffs.
46:04So Herzig, what do you think about us being about eight spots behind market here on Josh Allen?
46:09Yeah, I think this is a really difficult conversation to have around fantasy football because for home leagues, I think Josh Allen is a great pick.
46:17Probably the safest pick in fantasy. You get an advantage at a onesie position.
46:21His consistency is so valuable. It's very difficult to find a late QB that's going to match that.
46:27And you can win the waiver wire of the position.
46:30But for best ball, well, that consistency, that high flurry gives you doesn't really matter because if you draft three QBs, you can match that.
46:37And then even the upside from a one-week sample, well, a lot of other QBs can do that.
46:43I mean, Brock Purdy had, what, like a 44 last year.
46:46I think Trevor Lawrence had, like, a 40. In the past, Danny Dimes had, like, a 35 in the week 17.
46:53So, like, we can definitely match in a one-game sample.
46:56And the other is, from a strategic aspect and stacking, Josh Allen isn't a guy who traditionally, like, carries his pass catchers.
47:02Maybe it can happen with DJ Moore. We talked about why we don't think so.
47:07Even Josh Allen's best games usually come when he has two rushing touchdowns.
47:11So, it now becomes a multi-like parlay that you need to hit for best ball where Josh Allen has his great game.
47:18Oh, and either you luckily got the pass catcher and it actually happened or you need an uncorrelated pass catcher, another team to go off.
47:25Compare that to if you go Baker Mayfield and he puts up a 35.
47:30It's highly likely that's happening with Egbuka or Godwin or Otten or McMillan or Ted Hurst or someone.
47:35And to win a contest, it's a lot better to have these correlated parlays.
47:39Yeah. Silva, from a season-long perspective, I think the thing that sticks out to me about your rankings is you have Josh
47:46Allen and Lamar much closer than the best ball market does.
47:49And I don't even think that's wrong. Like, Lamar and Josh last year were going, like, back-to-back.
47:55The only thing that changed is Lamar had a hamstring injury last year.
47:58So, I assume you feel good about this, Silva.
48:01You're going to have this tighter between Josh and Lamar than I think most people do right now.
48:07Yeah, and I'm sort of betting that, you know, I think it's fair to wonder if Lamar Jackson lost a step last year.
48:14I mean, he definitely looks slower, you know, at times.
48:17He did have a bunch of MPHs that were still fast, even when he came back from the hamstring injury.
48:23I'm talking about, like, you know, the data stuff.
48:26I think that he bounces back and we see a super explosive Lamar.
48:30So, I have those guys in their own tier, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
48:34Yeah, I have them tighter than ADP for sure.
48:37Lamar Jackson seems like – have you been drafting much Lamar Jackson this year, Herzig?
48:41Yes. Yeah, I definitely have. Nice. And love it with Zay Flowers as well.
48:45Yeah. I think Jaden Daniels, because you're getting him at, like, a round and a half better, I like more.
48:51But, yeah, happy to take Lamar, especially if he falls past ADP.
48:55Yeah, and I don't love it, but I've been getting, when I draft Lamar, a lot of cheap Mark Andrews as, like,
49:02my second tight end, just hoping that he scores 10 touchdowns.
49:05I like that. Perfect part of the draft to be taking a tight end well.
49:10It fits well. A hundred percent. Last thing I'll say on this is we'll talk plenty more about strategy for season long
49:16as season long drafts start to get closer. I'll obviously have my draft strategy and perfect draft stuff up, but I do
49:23think, like, a big part of thinking about strategy is when I take – in season long, when I take Josh Allen
49:30in round two or round three, how does the rest of my team look?
49:34What does my competition look like? And what are they going to do at running back and wide receiver?
49:40All right. Jack, let's go to number 13. We got three more to get to here.
49:45Quinchon Junkins. We're about one round behind ADP on Quinchon.
49:48Junkins obviously had the injury, but seems like he is going to be fine for week one.
49:53Jack, any thoughts on inputs for Junkins in the Browns running back situation?
49:57Yeah, he's coming off the injury, which is a concern.
50:00But I think the real reason that we're behind him is just the team level stuff.
50:05We have Junkins dominating the carries there, but it's just that we have the Browns for the third fewest design rush attempts,
50:12second fewest touchdowns per game, and they have the third lowest implied team total in the betting markets right now.
50:18And then we don't have him dominating the pass down stuff.
50:21They still have Dylan Sampson there. They really liked getting Sampson involved last year.
50:25He had a 29% target per hour run, which is massive for a running back, and he was actually really efficient per
50:32target for a running back as well. So I think that he's probably going to get a good chunk of the pass down stuff.
50:39And then if Junkins is a two down back on a really bad offense, that's just a tough bet to make.
50:46Yeah, and that's the whole thing. And one thought I had, Silva, about the Myles Garrett trade was like, if they're going
50:52to be worse on defense, and Jared Vers is a good player, but you lose Myles Garrett, if they're going to be
50:59worse on defense, that can't be good for Junkins either, right?
51:02So Silva, what do you think about Junkins and us being behind market on him?
51:07Yeah, I'm a little bit behind. I'm not quite as behind market as the ETR projection-based rankings are, but I am behind market on him.
51:15I actually thought I was going to come out being hot on him because I was like, oh, man, this guy's going to dominate the workload for Cleveland.
51:23I know that all the systemic stuff is terrifying with Quinchon Junkins.
51:27I mean, what is his touchdown ceiling? It can't be very high.
51:30But people are still taking him ahead of me.
51:33I haven't been getting very much of him. Oh, right.
51:36Yeah, I've been taking Scadaboo over him. The market's been doing that, though, at like a rate, you know, that it's starting
51:43to get wider, that gap between those two guys.
51:46All right. Let's go to number 14 on the list here.
51:49Herzig, Brian Thomas Jr. We are about 11 spots behind ADP ETR 74, ADP 63 here on BTJ.
51:54This is similar to the Chargers where we like the offense.
51:58It's just very, very, very crowded and can be difficult to parse depending on what your preference is.
52:03There are wars, Herzig. Wars going on in the streets between the Parker Washington bros, the Brian Thomas bros, the Travis Hunter
52:10bros, the Tootin bros, the C-Rod bros. I've never seen anything like this war going on for takes in the Jaguars offense.
52:17Herzig, what do you think about us being behind on BTJ?
52:20I'm happy he's going at the place he is in drafts where it's a little easy to make a fade because he's
52:27just really scary because you can obviously know that there's upside.
52:30You saw it in the rookie season, but and what the sixth round or so that you have to take him like
52:37it's just pretty expensive for the level of risk that he might just be a wind sprinter in that offense.
52:43Like we've seen, I mean, a decent sample size of him just not fitting in well with that offense.
52:49And we're making a bet that something's just going to radically change.
52:52There's also some murmurs about Parker Washington's likely going to be getting a very large contract, which is going to give people
52:59more confidence that his role is further established. I just I think, again, it's a risk profile and there's a lot of
53:06other players being drafted where he is that I'd rather be taking that I think, sure, maybe their ceiling of ceiling outcomes
53:12is not as high, but their likelihood of hitting that 10 percent is much higher.
53:17Yeah, I talked about this on Market Monday, Silva.
53:20We're like, I think we're right. Our rank is right on Brian Thomas Jr.
53:24But if anyone's going to just absolutely body bag me in this offense, it's probably going to be BTJ because of the
53:31way he scores touchdowns and where he runs routes, which is deep down the field.
53:35So like, I think the rank is right. I don't have hardly any BTJ right now, but I feel like he could body bag us.
53:43But to Herzig's point, how often does he hit that ceiling?
53:46That's a tougher discussion. Silva, what do you think about BTJ?
53:50To add on to Herzig's point, you know, I think that the Jaguars have just screamed at us that Brian Thomas is
53:56not a great fit under Liam Cohen. Certainly not the way that he played last year.
54:01I mean, Brian Thomas was like legit, maybe the worst wide receiver in the NFL for the majority of last season.
54:08But, you know, since they hired Liam Cohen, like they traded for Jacoby Myers.
54:12They used the number two pick in the draft on Travis Hunter.
54:15They upped Parker Washington's role significantly. You know, behind Brenton Strange, they used a second round pick on Nate Borkercher.
54:22Like, I just, I don't know how it's going to happen for Brian Thomas unless he just blows the absolute doors off,
54:28which I think he is capable of doing that.
54:31At least the 2024 version of Brian Thomas was capable of doing that.
54:35But I just, I don't think that that's going to happen.
54:38I have noticed that there have been some puff pieces regarding Brian Thomas this offseason.
54:43It's almost like the Jaguars are putting that out there to try to like maybe increase his confidence or something.
54:49I don't know. I think that the Jaguars have screamed at us that he is not going to be a featured part of their passing game.
54:57Yeah. Jack, anything to add here on the Jaguars wide receiver situation where, again, it's very crowded.
55:02We're also really below market on Travis Hunter here as well with the Jaguars wide receivers.
55:07Yeah, it kind of scares me, to be honest.
55:10I think of this list, I think BTJ and Hampton are probably the two that scare me the most just because we've
55:16seen what the upside looks like from Brian Thomas's rookie year.
55:20Obviously, that wasn't with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. Um, but last year when they had all three wide receivers in Washington, Jacoby
55:26Myers and BTJ, BTJ was just a clear third.
55:29He only had a 12% target share once Jacoby really started playing.
55:33Jacoby Myers was consistently above 20%. So I think that they want to keep Jacoby Myers involved.
55:38It seems very clear that they want to keep Parker Washington involved.
55:42And we have him leading the team in targets.
55:44I do give some credits to the quote that BTJ had this offseason saying it doesn't hurt to run anymore.
55:50Uh, John Shipley said that he's the early front runner for their team offseason MVP, which I thought was just a figure
55:57of speech, but it's an actual award they give out at the end of the offseason.
56:02And last year it was Parker Washington. So maybe it's super predictive.
56:06I have no idea. Um, but the offseason he seems to be having, it does scare me.
56:11Um, and the, the way he gets downfield is a little frightening to have a full fade on him.
56:17But when you try to give everyone targets and split it out, it's, it's really tricky to get to the ADP.
56:23For sure. Um, yeah, just natural touchdown score too.
56:26What do you have? Like 17 touchdowns his final year at LSU or something like that.
56:31Something crazy like that. Yeah. Okay. Last one. I tried to keep it this list to guys that were like relevant for season long.
56:38I have to address this one though, because I've never gotten so many questions about a dust ball than we have on Cooper cup.
56:45We are at 172 overall on Cooper cup. The ADP is one 99.
56:49It's really funny because in preparing, preparing for this show, I went back and looked at last year's show and we were way below market on Cooper cup.
56:58And the con every comment is like, keep telling people not to take Cooper cup guys.
57:03I'm going to laugh all the way to the bank.
57:06It's like each other doesn't know what they're talking about.
57:09The other side where we're ahead of market on Cooper cup.
57:12Now this isn't relevant for season long. Nobody's taking Cooper cup in season long here, Jack, but maybe you can go through
57:19the inputs because we are being as conservative as we possibly can.
57:22I think on the Cooper cup inputs and yet he still comes out at 172 overall and the people just hate it.
57:29They do not want to hear this whatsoever. Right.
57:32I was going to, I want to reemphasize that it's purely a best ball pick.
57:36There's no point in taking Cooper cup in redraft because he doesn't have a huge ceiling, but in best ball, there is
57:43value in, in drafting the guys that are just going to be out there and score seven or eight points every game
57:50and maybe give you a usable week every once in a while.
57:53So we'll start with last year because we've actually taken cups projection down quite a bit throughout the off season.
58:00But last year, once Shahid was acquired. And if you ignore the first week, he had a 15% target per hour on cup was at 18%.
58:07Cup had a 16% target share. Shahid was a 10%.
58:10All the buzz this off season has been that Shahid is going to be a much more featured part of the offense.
58:17They gave him a new contract. I think it was three years, $51 million.
58:21So we have kind of capitulated a little bit and now have Shahid out targeting cup, despite the big differences last year.
58:28And we also have cup with a significantly muted ceiling.
58:31We basically have them for no ceiling relative to his, his base target projection.
58:35And we have Shahid slightly ahead in base targets, despite the gap last year.
58:40And we still come in like 30 spots ahead of cup.
58:43It seems like he's just going to be out there a bunch.
58:47His target per route run last year, wasn't anything catastrophic.
58:50His yards per target actually jumped back up with the offense being so good.
58:54And it doesn't seem like the top three receivers right now are in question.
58:58I know that they still have Torrey Horton, but he's still recovering from the shin injury he had last year.
59:04So, and, and I think from a skillset standpoint, his skillset is more redundant with Shahid than cup.
59:10So I think cup's going to be out there a lot.
59:13And I know he's getting older, but he wasn't completely awful last year.
59:17Um, and we have them for a pretty conservative base and ceiling target share and have his odds of hitting the ceiling lower than your average player.
59:25Um, and yeah, we're still like three rounds. Yeah.
59:28Well, I, and I misspoke. We're at one 80 overall on Cooper cup right now, one 42 on, uh, Rashid Shahid.
59:35I think part of it is like, when you get that late in the draft, a lot of people think these guys
59:41are most likely to be zeros anyways. Herzig, let me take a guy that can go off for 20 plus points.
59:48And I don't know that Cooper cup has that in him anymore.
59:51So I get it to some degree. There's also the risk that he just totally falls off the cliff.
59:57Like he's already three quarters of the way down the cliff.
60:00What if this is the year they just can't play him?
60:04Cause he's so, so, so bad. So I kind of get it from that perspective.
60:08I will say though, Herzig, you can do Darnold back doors really easily.
60:12Darnold into cup Shahid, Darnold Barner is there. Also Halani is there for a last round running back pick too, if you want to do that.
60:20So I do get some Seattle backdoor stuff where I get cut, but despite our rank, like I'm not taking him as a one-off.
60:27Are you, I guess I have, but not a ton.
60:31How are you doing one-offs on Cooper cup? Herzig.
60:33So if I'm doing a one-off, it's a build where I'm probably only having six or seven wide receivers and just getting
60:40that high, you know, or not high, but decent floor reach week is important.
60:44If it's on, you know, draftings and I've got eight or nine wide receivers, there's no point in throwing him on in my mind.
60:52If he's not stacked, it's just not as important.
60:54Now I do want to like, this isn't the Brashad Perryman of the past.
60:59This isn't the wide receiver that we're just assuming is going to have volume, but never really have like more than just
61:05a, you know, a day in the park or whatever for us.
61:09Like Cooper cup had multiple years of being like wide receiver one or top three and wide receivers.
61:14And so I don't think it's as likely that he just completely falls off because even if efficiency dies, the steel team
61:21dynamic of like, this is one of the top, this was one of the top wide receivers in the league.
61:27This person still understands the game. They can still make it work.
61:31Like, I think that complete fall off from an actual usage and being on the field is lower risk than some of
61:38these guys that we've been way above market on in the past.
61:41Yeah. Silva's on in line with market on Shahid.
61:44Obviously cook cup is not part of his top one 50.
61:47Silva's at one 38 overall here on Shahid, which again is in line with market.
61:52Evan, any final thoughts on Seattle wider C before we get out of here?
61:56Who would you rather have straight up Cooper cup or Brandon AB 84?
62:00I you. If you could just draft one. Cooper cup.
62:03Cup for best ball for best ball cup. Yeah.
62:06Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah. For redraft Brandon, you can, then you drop him, you know, very clearly, but yeah.
62:12Right. I thought you were going to say something like, who would you rather have Cooper cup or like a piece of wood or something like that?
62:20And that would have been a more interesting discussion.
62:23Give me the wood. I'll take the lawnmower over Cooper cup.
62:26Okay. All right. Well, I hope this was helpful.
62:29I hope that this gave you guys some understanding of why we are at, you don't have to agree with us, but
62:35I think, you know, one thing that we're going to be trying to do more and more up even in season this
62:42year has tried to explain a little bit more about why we are, where we're at with certain guys, certain assumptions that
62:49we're making in the projections and why. So if you guys like this, let us know in the comments, uh, on YouTube,
62:55we'll try to do more of this context around the projections because again, I just think it's important, you know, and I
63:02get why people ask me why, why, why Adam, this, why Adam, that I get it.
63:07So hopefully this helped. All right. That's gonna do it for another episode of the established to run flagship podcast before be
63:14sure you have a subscription free to the established the edge podcast.
63:17Gretch, Jack and Mark are going way deeper than we just went here on every player and all of our assumptions and projections for that.
63:25Do not miss the established the edge shows also best ball product continues to be live and continually updating head to the best ball tab on UT.
63:33For details there for Silva for Jack for Herzig, producer Ryan, producer Luke.
63:37I am Adam. Good luck. Everybody.