PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Market Monday: Travis Etienne and Patrick Mahomes Get Cheaper -- Buy or Sell? (Episode 996 with Adam Levitan)
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16 min
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Jul 13, 2026
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Mon, July 13, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 996 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and it is time for the show you cannot survive without, Market Monday.
0:14Each Monday, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:24The idea is simple, to give you an idea of how the market is thinking about players and also how I'm thinking about them.
0:32Reminder, if you want to use the rankings that the guys who won both the DraftKings and Underdog Best Ball flagships last
0:40year for $2 million each, those rankings are part of our ETR Best Ball product.
0:46Obviously, I'm biased, but the reason that all the sharpest people upload our rankings because they know how hard we grind, every
0:54shred of information to ensure our uploadable rankings are as accurate as possible at all times.
1:00That's going to be important once there is news flying as training camp hits.
1:05Our Best Ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date, so head to EstablishTheRun.com for details.
1:13Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant, as Sam
1:21Shepard, the DK winner, did last year. There's a link to that in the Best Ball tab on ETR.
1:28If you want to see that in action, you can check out our Thursday live streams of drafts.
1:35Also, we use it when I do the Monday drafts with Overzet on his channel.
1:40All right, let's start with the risers from the last seven days.
1:44First one, Jordan Mason, Vikings running back up 3.9 spots to 124 overall on DraftKings.
1:50Mason is also a big on underdog this week, 5.5 spots on underdog to 118 overall.
1:56This is due to a report, and I use the term report loosely.
2:01Actually, let me just get this off my chest.
2:04Maybe I'm old school. Maybe I am a journalism hardo, but when I hear the term report, I think actual reporting.
2:12So examples of actual reporting to me would be Jordan Mason is getting 75% of the first team running back reps at practice.
2:20Or a report that says a source within the Vikings told me the plan is to feature Jordan Mason as a true workhorse this year.
2:29Or a source told me Aaron Jones feels like he has dead legs and he's in Germany trying to get horse testosterone or whatever.
2:38Those are reports. That is not what happened here with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones.
2:44The reason Jordan Mason is steaming so hard right now is because of a take, not a report, a take from Matthew
2:52Collar, who covers the Vikings for Purple Insider. He said this is Jordan Mason's backfield, and Aaron Jones will mainly spell him
3:00and eat into the workload on passing downs. Cool.
3:03That's a fine take. I'm not even saying I disagree.
3:07My point is that this is just a take.
3:10Like, I might have the same take. Silva might have the same take.
3:15Anyone might have the same take. And all this is why fantasy football will never be solved by computers or AI fully.
3:23So much of the inputs to the model is an art.
3:27You can't algo your way into getting the Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones, Claiborne split right.
3:33It's like way more of an art. So anyway, Aaron Jones is infinitely a better player than Jordan Mason.
3:40Jordan Mason broke out in Kyle Shanahan's run scheme where tons of dusty running backs can break out.
3:46Mason has 28 catches in 61 career games. Kyler Murray is a threat to steal some rushing touchdowns.
3:53Aaron Jones, meanwhile, very good pass catcher, explosive player.
3:56He's going to turn 32 late this season, clearly wearing down really, really poor bet to stay healthy, I think.
4:03So yeah, I think that the quote unquote report makes sense.
4:08Mason an expanded role in base goal line. Jones getting high leverage situations.
4:12Change of pace past game. Claiborne hoping to find a path to playing time somehow.
4:18So I consider Jordan Mason a similar bet to Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt.
4:22Rough pass game outlook. QB is mobile. Has some threats around him.
4:26Needs touchdowns to hit. It's not really the kind of bet I like to make, especially in DraftKings.
4:33So I mix Jordan Mason in a little bit when I get behind that running back.
4:39And this year, it's very easy to get behind that running back if you don't address it early.
4:45Like, if you have two running backs or fewer heading into the 10th round, Jordan Mason, JCM, Chris Rodriguez, JK Dobbins, they
4:54look really good, you know, if you're desperate for running back there.
4:58But more of my teams, I'm addressing running back earlier, and I think that's right.
5:03Second riser, Ricky Pearsall up 1.2 spots to 99 overall on underdog.
5:08Yeah, I'm like partially responsible for this. I've been turbo smashing the Ricky Pearsall button.
5:13I am up to around 29% of him as I look at the Best Ball Explorer, the solver exposure tool.
5:2129% of Pearsall in terms of fees so far through 46 drafts.
5:25And it's not just because Pearsall got shot and got his Rolex back.
5:30Thought Pearsall played really well last season when he wasn't injured.
5:34Obviously, that's been the story with him. Cannot stay healthy, but 10.0 yards per target, really elite.
5:401.68 yards per route run, decent on a 314 route sample.
5:44And now we add in Juwan Jennings is gone.
5:48Kittle's off an ACL Achilles tear. If you think Christian McCaffrey is going to get hurt, that would be massive for Ricky Pearsall.
5:56Mike Evans is in the age 33 season. All of that's really good for Pearsall.
6:02And I also just, I want to bet on Kyle Shanahan players.
6:06He is one of the original talent maximizers. Pearsall has clear NFL talent.
6:11There's a reason he went 31st overall in 2024.
6:14And it's been productive for the most part when he's been in the game.
6:19So I've talked about this range of wide receiver before, but one of the reasons the RB heavy starts are so appealing
6:27this year is because we get the range of Jaden Reed, Pittman, Downs, Addison, Pearsall, Worthy, Golden.
6:34We get that tier of wide receiver. That's all really appealing to me.
6:38And then we always have, you know, the round four through six wide receivers that have a lot of breakout appeal also.
6:46And so, yeah, you know, I just think Pearsall is one of my favorites of that later tier.
6:53Of wide receiver. Third riser, Jaden Blue up 6.1 spots to 194 overall DraftKings.
6:58Just a massive, massive rise. Jaden Blue has gone from someone I could routinely get in round 20 on DraftKings to someone
7:06who goes round 17, sometimes even round 16. It is a reminder of how fast things change at the back of drafts.
7:14It does not take a lot for the dust balls going in round 20 to get steamed because the rolls back there
7:22are so fragile, especially this time of year. You know, one shred of positivity means a ton.
7:29And that's what's happening with Jaden Blue. The coaches are talking positively about him this year after ripping him to shreds last year.
7:37The lack of maturity, the Louis Vuitton cleats, the practice habits.
7:41Of course, you know, all of this is just, all the positivity is just talk and speculation.
7:47I think the coaches likely want Blue to earn a complimentary role as the change of pace option behind Javante Williams.
7:55But he's going to actually have to earn it in camp and through the season by playing well.
8:02You know, Malik Davis, Phil Mafa, they can play as well.
8:06I think like a larger strategy point, when I get to this range of the draft at running back, like really late,
8:14I'm thinking about true ceiling outcomes because the floor on these picks is typically stone zero anyways.
8:20So true ceiling, if Javante gets hurt, Javante Williams gets hurt, what will Jaden Blue's role be?
8:26I do not think it will be true workhorse, like at all.
8:31You know, Davis and or Mafa would play also.
8:34And so contrast that with guys like Tank Bigsby, Braylon Allen, Ray Davis, the contingent upside, I think with those guys is decently higher.
8:43So as Jaden Blue gets more expensive, it's a tougher bet to make.
8:48I'm still like okay at 194, but much higher than that, it's going to be really, really tough for me to click Jaden Blue.
8:57Let's get to this week's fallers. First up, Patrick Mahomes down 1.4 spots to 95 overall.
9:03I keep trying to highlight some of these mid-round quarterbacks that are falling, even if it's just a little bit.
9:10Again, huge thing to watch as we approach peak drafting season is the gap between guys I would consider elite, such as
9:18Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Drake May, the gap between them and the more pocketish guys like Goff, Stafford, and Mahomes.
9:25And I know Mahomes wasn't a pocketish guy last year.
9:29I'll get to that in a second. But right now, I still think the Lamar Jackson, Drake May, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts,
9:37that's the right place to be at quarterback, especially on underdog where quarterback means more, but on DraftKings also.
9:44We'll see how it goes in terms of QB ADP come August.
9:48But on Mahomes specifically, I'm just not that excited about his outlook.
9:53I mean, he was forced to support the offense last season by running career high 422 rush yards and five rushing touchdowns,
10:01both career highs, despite only playing 14 games. That was huge for his fantasy value.
10:06I mean, massive. Will Mahomes do that this year off of the ACL tear?
10:12I'm skeptical. And then the weaponry remains poor. Like, Rasheed Rice is good in full PPR fantasy.
10:18He's far from a dynamic, real-life NFL wide receiver, though, given his route tree.
10:23Xavier Worthy has had moments, but I'm not sure he's good enough, especially in today's NFL with so many teams playing cover 2.
10:32And Travis Kelsey turns 37 in October. Their wide receiver 3 is Taequann Thornton.
10:37Like, it's dusty. I think their best hope for Chiefs offense is actually defenses continue to play them, cover 2, protect against the deep ball.
10:46And Kenneth Walker just goes nuts. And I really like Kenneth Walker a lot more than I like the Mahomes stuff.
10:54So it's just really hard for me to see it on Mahomes in terms of being a big hit at 95 overall.
11:02I prefer Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, you know, and like Jackson Dart, Jordan Love, Kyler.
11:08I think they can beat Mahomes decently in the right runout.
11:12So I doubt Mahomes would be the quarterback for me in redraft this year.
11:17In best ball, I do take Mahomes with Rasheed Rice, but I don't force it.
11:22If I see a spot to get a quick Mahomes-worthy stack, I take it.
11:27But beyond those two spots, I don't really have much Mahomes.
11:31Second faller, Travis Etienne down 1.7 spots to 37 overall on underdog.
11:36Bottom line is the longer Alvin Kamara is on the Saints, the worse it is for Travis Etienne.
11:42I still believe the Saints want and wanted to move on from Kamara due to cost, declining production, whatever.
11:49But it's complicated. Alvin Kamara is a total legend in New Orleans, incredible player.
11:55Been with the team for so long, seemingly good dude.
11:58It's just a tough spot for the Saints. Like, the Eagles wouldn't care.
12:03They would just cut, you know, Brian Dawkins, Jeremiah Trotter.
12:07Like, the Eagles would be getting out a year early rather than a year late.
12:12They wouldn't even have Kamara on their team right now, you know?
12:17And that's one of the reasons I think they've been such an outperforming franchise.
12:22But the Saints, I don't know. Now, at one point, I thought it was 70-30 Kamara would be gone.
12:29Then I think like a month or two ago on here, I said 50-50.
12:34Now we're a couple weeks from camp. I guess I got to say it's like 70-30 that Kamara is on the Saints now come week one.
12:44And given his pass catching ability, that's a real problem for Etienne.
12:48Now, that's why he's falling. I'm still taking, I'm still taking Etienne here at the 3-4 turn for structural reasons.
12:55But also, if Kamara does end up going that 30% that I said, Etienne is going to start going in round two.
13:03Just a massive ADP value if you take him now at the 3-4 turn.
13:09So, and lastly, obviously like, I'm fine taking Etienne at the 3-4 turn even if Kamara is there.
13:15Just betting on the Saints setup. Like, showed so much intent going out and getting Etienne in free agency when a bunch
13:23of other teams were trying to get him. They're going to play so fast under Kellen Moore.
13:30Offensive line upgrades are big. So, yeah, I'm glad Etienne is dropping.
13:34On underdogs specifically, where it's half PPR, wide receivers aren't worth as much.
13:39Like from the back of round one, an 11 or 12 pick, I think you can start three running backs including Etienne
13:47or Javante in the first four rounds and then stop at four or stop at five at the most.
13:54It's an interesting structure for sure. All right. Last faller, Michael Wilson down 1.4 spots to 86 overall on DraftKings.
14:01Another tricky spot. I mean, normally a 26-year-old wide receiver like Michael Wilson who went 78,000 yards, seven touchdowns last season.
14:09You wouldn't be able to get him at 86 overall, but the market, you know, sees it.
14:15I mean, the problem is twofold. First, Mazda Marvin Harrison.
14:19I still don't think he's good enough, but I can't deny that Mazda Marv target mogged Wilson last season and what I thought was some telling spots.
14:29Like Wilson was coming off of an absolute tear while Marvin was injured.
14:34And I thought that would continue even when Marvin was back.
14:38I mean, it wasn't when both ran routes, when both were on the field together to run a route.
14:45Marvin Harrison, 23% target per route run. Michael Wilson, 14%.
14:48Target share when they both ran routes. Mazda, 28%.
14:52Wilson, 18%. That's scary. So then you add in this year, Mazda healthy.
14:56Jeremiah Love, three overall. Bring in Algier. Carson Beck risk.
15:00Way fewer dropbacks we can project reasonably. So yeah, that outlook on Wilson is shaky, but similar to RJ Harvey's situation, similar
15:08to Matthew Stafford's situation, the market is baking all this in on Michael Wilson.
15:13It's not like 2014 fantasy where the market was just so reliant on last year's numbers.
15:19So at 86 overall, I still think Wilson is too expensive, but around pick 95 or 100, if he sinks that low,
15:27which he might, I think that's fine on Wilson.
15:31All right, that is going to do it for another edition of Market Monday.
15:36Appreciate everyone for listening. Be sure to subscribe on our free YouTube page so we continue to bring you the shows you
15:44cannot fathom living without like this one. Also reminder, exposure tracker for best ball that I mentioned, that is totally free.
15:51It is on Solver. You just need an account.
15:55Highly, highly recommend that. For Bruce Lute, for producer Ryan, for Jerry, the most beautiful piece in the world.
16:02I am Adam. Good luck, everybody.