PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Draft Strategy: How To Attack Your League This Season (Episode 1012 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 21, 2026
Published
Fri, August 21, 2026
78
Player insights
59
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersColston LovelandDerrick HenryTrey McBrideChristian McCaffreyGeorge KittleJayden DanielsJonathan TaylorJosh AllenKenneth Walker IIIKyler MurrayTravis EtienneA.J. BrownAlvin Kamara
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue8:49
Mark Dankenbring suggests A.J. Brown as a strong target in the second round if drafting from the 1.03 or 1.04 spot, depending on how the board falls.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
NegativeInjury18:22
Mark Dankenbring notes that Alvin Kamara's sprained MCL injury may impact his ADP in home leagues.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeProjection3:55
Jack Miller views Bijan Robinson as a clear top-two running back but notes a tier gap between him and Jahmyr Gibbs, who is preferred at the 1.01.
Insight pageBlake Corum
NegativeValue49:26
Mark Dankenbring advises against handcuffing Kyren Williams with Blake Corum in redraft leagues because Corum's ADP is too high (90s) to justify the investment.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveValue20:40
Mark Dankenbring highlights Bo Nix as a viable late-round quarterback option for those waiting to draft the position.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeValue19:12
Adam Levitan notes Breece Hall's current home league ADP is around 32.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeValue18:45
Mark Dankenbring notes he is typically not drafting Brock Bowers in the second round, preferring to wait for later-round tight end value.
Insight pagePositiveValue24:34
Mark Dankenbring is avoiding Brock Bowers in the second round of redraft leagues, citing concerns about the Raiders' offensive environment and skepticism that the coaching staff will elevate them to a top-10 offense, preferring to target Colston Loveland rounds later instead.
Insight pagePositiveUsage25:42
Ryan Paganetti, who worked in the Raiders front office, indicated the team plans to heavily target Brock Bowers with the goal of setting the NFL record for catches by a tight end in a season.
Insight pagePositiveValue26:27
Jack Miller argues that drafting Brock Bowers in the second round provides a massive weekly advantage, as he is projected for 20+ points compared to replacement-level options like Tucker Kraft at 11 points.
Insight pagePositiveValue26:58
Jack Miller categorizes Brock Bowers as an elite tight end and prefers him in the second round if the drafter has already secured a high-end running back like Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor.
Insight pageNegativeValue28:48
JJ Zachariason and Mark Dankenbring express skepticism regarding Brock Bowers' current ADP of 21.3, noting he is ranked 22nd overall in their half-PPR rankings; they prefer Derrick Henry over Bowers at that draft position.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue20:40
Mark Dankenbring considers Brock Purdy underrated, specifically noting his under-discussed rushing ability, which has averaged over four points per game over the last two seasons.
Insight pageCalvin Ridley
PositiveValue45:13
Jack Miller notes that while Calvin Ridley is a target in best ball, he has no interest in drafting him in redraft leagues due to a lack of high-ceiling upside compared to younger, unproven players.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeInjury4:01
Jack Miller highlights Christian McCaffrey's injury concerns and age as reasons he ranks behind Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, though he remains a viable pick at the 1.05 if the drafter is comfortable with the health risk.
Insight pagePositiveValue27:05
Jack Miller suggests that drafting a high-end running back like Christian McCaffrey in the first round makes it strategically easier to commit to an elite tight end in the second round.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper18:38
Mark Dankenbring identifies Colston Loveland as a primary target in the fourth round, preferring him over higher-priced tight ends like Brock Bowers or Trey McBride.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper25:04
Mark Dankenbring identifies Colston Loveland as a preferred target several rounds later than Brock Bowers, positioning him as a value alternative at the tight end position.
Insight pagePositiveValue26:58
Jack Miller lists Colston Loveland as one of his four elite tight end targets for the upcoming season, ranking him alongside Brock Bowers as one of his two preferred options.
Insight pageCooper Kupp
NegativeValue45:13
Jack Miller expresses that he has zero interest in drafting Cooper Kupp in redraft leagues, preferring players with higher breakout potential even if they carry more risk.
Insight pageCyrus Allen
PositiveSleeper47:54
Adam Levitan suggests Cyrus Allen as a deep-league target who can be drafted late to quickly determine if he will have a meaningful role.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue15:57
Mark Dankenbring and Adam Levitan highlight D'Andre Swift as an excellent target in the fourth or fifth round for teams that go wide receiver-heavy early.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveProjection29:56
JJ Zachariason highlights positive news surrounding Dalton Kincaid, noting he has the upside to be a top-five tight end and is currently ranked as the TE10.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveValue21:10
Mark Dankenbring highlights Daniel Jones as a free asset in redraft leagues, currently going as the QB28, and notes his potential as a waiver wire contributor.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeValue8:52
Mark Dankenbring notes that Devon Achane could potentially fall to the second round in certain draft spots, making him a viable target.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeValue8:52
Mark Dankenbring notes that Derrick Henry could potentially fall to the second round in certain draft spots, making him a viable target.
Insight pagePositiveValue28:52
In half-PPR home leagues, Jack Miller would prefer drafting Derrick Henry over Brock Bowers if both are available in the second round.
Insight pagePositiveValue28:52
JJ Zachariason and Mark Dankenbring view Derrick Henry as a superior draft pick compared to Brock Bowers in half-PPR formats at their current ADP range.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveValue24:13
Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring target Drake Maye in the sixth round, noting his status as an ascending dual-threat quarterback.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury29:49
JJ Zachariason notes George Kittle is ranked as the TE9 but expresses concern regarding his age (33), recovery from an Achilles injury, and uncertainty about his Week 1 availability, suggesting he may not be a reliable standalone tight end.
Insight pageNegativeInjury50:42
Adam Levitan mentions George Kittle as a potential IR candidate, though he expresses doubt that Kittle will actually start the season on the IR.
Insight pageHunter Renfrow
NegativeValue44:59
Adam Levitan notes that players like Hunter Renfrow are more valuable in best ball formats than in redraft because they lack the weekly upside required for redraft roster spots.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeValue30:06
JJ Zachariason believes Isaiah Likely is currently overdrafted at his ADP of 105.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveProjection8:25
Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring view Ja'Marr Chase as an incredible pick at the 1.03 or 1.04 spot, noting his elite outlook and profile.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection3:55
Jack Miller and the ETR team strongly prefer Jahmyr Gibbs as the 1.01 overall pick, citing his combination of rushing workload, pass-catching volume, and superior offensive environment compared to Bijan Robinson.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue24:13
Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring target Jalen Hurts in the sixth round, highlighting his rushing touchdown upside.
Insight pageJalen Nailor
PositiveBreakout47:27
Jack Miller identifies Jalen Nailor as a player to monitor in Week 1 to see if he can push for outside wide receiver duties following injury news, making him a valuable churn candidate.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue6:42
Adam Levitan identifies James Cook as an excellent target for a running back-heavy start when drafting from the back of the first round.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeMatchup21:59
Jack Miller notes that Jared Goff is extremely weather-dependent, making him a candidate for streaming strategies based on matchups.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue15:53
Adam Levitan notes that Javonte Williams is a viable fourth-round pick, making him a good option for those who wait on running backs.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeProjection13:42
Jack Miller notes that Jaxon Smith-Njigba was an outlier in target earning last year, but his team's passing offense does not profile as highly as the Rams or Bengals, making him a risky pick at 1.05 compared to a healthy Christian McCaffrey.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveValue19:57
Mark Dankenbring notes that Jayden Daniels is likely to be drafted in the fifth round in most home leagues.
Insight pagePositiveValue24:13
Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring target Jayden Daniels in the sixth round, noting his dual-threat upside and potential to run for 800 yards and throw for 30 touchdowns.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
NegativeInjury0:52
Jack Miller notes that Jaden Higgins is out for the remainder of the 2026 season due to a torn ACL.
Insight pageJerry Jeudy
PositiveValue45:13
Jack Miller states he has no interest in drafting Jerry Jeudy in redraft leagues, preferring to prioritize players with higher breakout potential.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeProjection4:01
Jack Miller notes that while Jonathan Taylor is a top-tier running back, he lacks the pass-catching profile of Bijan Robinson, placing him slightly behind the top two options.
Insight pagePositiveValue27:05
Jack Miller suggests that drafting a high-end running back like Jonathan Taylor in the first round makes it strategically easier to commit to an elite tight end in the second round.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveValue50:37
Adam Levitan identifies Jordan Mason as a good candidate for an IR spot in redraft leagues if your league settings allow for it.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury0:42
Jack Miller reports that his best ball portfolio has suffered due to Jordan Tyson being sidelined for two months with a hamstring injury.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection22:43
Jack Miller describes Josh Allen as the best player in fantasy football due to his raw point production, consistency, high floor, and massive ceiling games.
Insight pageNegativeValue22:44
Jack Miller advises against drafting Josh Allen in standard redraft leagues due to his inflated ADP in the second round, noting that the value-over-replacement gap between him and later-round quarterbacks like Kyler Murray is smaller than the positional value lost at running back or wide receiver.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveValue15:53
Adam Levitan notes that Josh Jacobs is a viable fourth-round pick, provided he is not suspended.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveRole32:03
Mark Dankenbring identifies Juwan Johnson as a late-round target who could project as a top-eight to top-ten tight end in Week 1 due to the injury to Jordan Tyson.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue6:42
Adam Levitan considers Kenneth Walker an awesome start for teams drafting from the back of the first round.
Insight pageNegativeValue24:17
JJ Zachariason highlights the importance of positional value, noting that the drop-off between running backs like Kenneth Walker and Rashad White is more critical to roster construction than the gap between top-tier and mid-tier quarterbacks.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue20:54
Mark Dankenbring believes people are sleeping on Kyler Murray, who benefits from playing with great weapons in Minnesota.
Insight pageNegativeValue24:11
JJ Zachariason uses Kyler Murray as a comparison point for value-over-replacement analysis, noting that the production gap between him and Josh Allen is not significant enough to justify Allen's high draft capital in redraft formats.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeValue12:32
Mark Dankenbring expresses hesitation about reaching for Kyren Williams in the second round over high-end wide receivers like Nico Collins or A.J. Brown.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue19:57
Mark Dankenbring notes that Lamar Jackson is likely to be drafted in the fifth round in most home leagues.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeInjury22:28
Jack Miller acknowledges that Malik Nabers is currently dealing with an injury.
Insight pageMalik Willis
NegativeValue21:06
Mark Dankenbring notes that Malik Willis is consistently available at the end of drafts for those looking for a late-round quarterback.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue8:49
Mark Dankenbring suggests Nico Collins as a strong target in the second round if drafting from the 1.03 or 1.04 spot, depending on how the board falls.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection8:25
Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring view Puka Nacua as an incredible pick at the 1.03 or 1.04 spot, noting his elite outlook and profile.
Insight pageRay Davis
PositiveValue49:08
Mark Dankenbring suggests Ray Davis as a viable handcuff target in redraft leagues due to the Bills' run-heavy offense and his low cost, noting that Ty Johnson's injury status further clears his path.
Insight pageSam Darnold
NegativeMatchup22:02
Jack Miller identifies Sam Darnold as a pressure-dependent quarterback who should be managed via matchup-based streaming.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeInjury30:48
Jack Miller notes that Sam LaPorta suffered a hip injury on August 20th, creating uncertainty regarding his availability for Week 1.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveValue48:41
Mark Dankenbring identifies Tank Bigsby as a top handcuff target in redraft leagues because he is cheap and would absorb a massive amount of the rushing workload if Saquon Barkley were to miss time.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveBreakout47:01
Jack Miller and Adam Levitan highlight Terrence Ferguson as a high-upside redraft target because his role could be clarified early in the season, allowing for quick roster decisions.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveValue15:53
Adam Levitan and Mark Dankenbring identify Travis Etienne as a strong target in the fourth round, especially for teams that start wide receiver-heavy.
Insight pagePositiveValue27:52
Jack Miller notes that if players like Travis Etienne are allowed to slip to the end of the fourth round, it increases the viability of taking a tight end in the second round.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeValue18:45
Mark Dankenbring notes he is typically not drafting Trey McBride in the second round, preferring to wait for later-round tight end value.
Insight pagePositiveValue26:58
Jack Miller identifies Trey McBride as an elite tight end option, noting that casual drafters in home leagues may be confused as to why McBride is currently being drafted after Brock Bowers.
Insight pageNegativeValue29:18
Trey McBride has an ADP of 22.3, which JJ Zachariason notes is very close to Brock Bowers' ADP in redraft formats, making it a difficult decision for drafters.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeProjection26:40
Jack Miller uses Tucker Kraft as a baseline for a replacement-level tight end, noting he is projected for approximately 11 points per game.
Insight pageTyler Allgeier
PositiveValue49:59
Adam Levitan mentions Tyler Allgeier as a potential handcuff target, noting he may have a clean path to work if James Conner faces injury issues.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue26:58
Jack Miller identifies Tyler Warren as one of the elite tight end options to target in drafts this season.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
PositiveValue50:40
Adam Levitan suggests Zach Charbonnet as a good candidate for an IR spot in redraft leagues.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue20:54
Adam Levitan prefers Zay Flowers over running backs like Cam Skadaboo in the third or fourth round, citing a clear preference for wide receivers in that range.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1012 of the official Establish The Run podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. We have talked about a ton of very important things over the last few months, such as
0:10players and rankings, but we have not dedicated a full show to draft strategy.
0:14And to me, that is a huge part of the battle.
0:17To discuss this today, I'm joined by two young men you know and love, Mark Dankenbring.
0:22How's it going today? Going great. Adam, excited to talk through this.
0:26I have my first redraft league of the season kicking off tonight.
0:29So a lot of the strategy we'll talk through.
0:32I'll be employing tonight during the draft, which is will be a fun time.
0:36Indeed. Jack Miller, how goes it? It's going okay.
0:38I'm excited to talk about redraft and get shifted into redraft mode.
0:42But the reason I am excited for that is because my best ball portfolio has taken a huge hit over the past
0:48seven days with Jordan Tyson out two months with a hamstring injury.
0:52And Jaden Higgins out for the year with a torn ACL.
0:55So we might be on to 2027 for best ball, but it's still 2026 for redraft.
1:00So I'm excited to get into it. Exactly. Well, there's still plenty of time to draft more teams regardless.
1:05That's how I'm rationalizing the Jordan Tyson and Luther Burden stuff.
1:08Okay. And Ricky Pierce all stuff. Okay. On today's show, we are going to talk all things strategy for 2026 season long
1:15snake drafts, early rounds, running back strategy, picking from differing pick ranges, middle round strategy, late round tactics, kicker defense, and more.
1:21If you have a fantasy draft coming up, and I know you do, we can help.
1:26I promise no one dedicates more time and frankly money to ensuring we have the best and most up-to-date rankings.
1:32Our draft kit pro is just $55. Includes Silva's top 150, Silva's tiers, all our ETR rankings, my draft strategy article, player-by-player
1:38notes, Foreman's rankings in season, and tons, tons more.
1:41So if you've not yet picked up the draft kit, again, $55.
1:44Head to established2run.com. Find the subscribe tab and get access to everything we are working on to get you set for your draft.
1:51All right. Let's get into it here, boys. I've had, you know, a lot of people ask me, I can pick where
1:57I want to pick in the first round. Adam, where should I pick?
2:01And normally each year, I have a pretty strong feeling about where I think is best based on how I feel about
2:08the players in round one, who comes back in round two slash three.
2:11This year, I think you can actually make a case for a lot of different pick spots being the best.
2:17Jack worked on the articles for us. If you have draft kit, you can find them about picking from each spot.
2:23Jack, where do you think is the best place to draft from this year if you could pick anywhere?
2:29Yeah. So my favorite pick to have this year is the first pick.
2:33And my second favorite pick is the second pick.
2:35And that's because it gives you access to Jameer Gibbs and Bijon Robinson at the top of the board.
2:41I do think that there's quite a gap from Robinson to the next running back in Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor.
2:47McCaffrey has the injury concerns and Taylor isn't quite the pass catcher that Dijon Robinson is.
2:52And then beat and then Jameer Gibbs has the same combination of rushing workload and pass catching volume.
2:57And he's on a significantly better offense. So those are the clear top two for me with Gibbs at the top.
3:03I think after that, it becomes a lot more interesting.
3:06And with the run of running backs that you see at the end of the first round, I think it's pretty defensible
3:12to prefer a late pick in the first round after Gibbs.
3:16And if you can't get the first or the second pick.
3:19But for me, if we're talking, you have the choice of any of the 12 picks in the first round.
3:25Where are you going? I'm going first pick. If I can't get first pick, I'm going second.
3:30Yeah. And see, I think that there's a big gap for me, at least between Gibbs and Dijon.
3:35So, you know, the first pick to me is huge.
3:38I absolutely love getting Gibbs there. I'm going to make a case and I'm curious what you guys think about this.
3:44I'm going to make a case for a late pick being best this year.
3:48And it really depends how you think your draft is going to go or how it's going to go.
3:53But let's say you get a pick between pick 9 and 12.
3:57From the back of round 1, you can get really strong running back, running back starts.
4:02So like James Cook, Kenneth Walker to me is an awesome start.
4:05Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown, Ashton Jendee, Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker.
4:09Whatever you like. But those running back, running back starts are the easiest, I think, and the cleanest to build out the rest of your roster with.
4:16Because as we'll get to, like all the wide receivers that I want to target are in round 3 through 8 or so.
4:23And so if you don't have to force running backs in that range, that round 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, because we've
4:30already addressed it early, I think that's right and easier.
4:32So I think the back is maybe my preferred this year, but I don't feel strongly like, to Jack's point, getting the
4:39first pick is a huge advantage also. So Mark, any thoughts on this?
4:43Where's your favorite spot to pick from this year?
4:45I think there's a little nuance in terms of what your roster looks like and how that's constructed in your leagues.
4:51If you're only starting two wide receivers in a flex and then two running backs as well, I think picking at the
4:58end of the first is probably the best spot to be because you are guaranteed to lock in pretty much two high upside RB1s there.
5:05But I think ultimately, if I'm in a league that starts three wide receivers, I'd be totally fine getting Jamar Chase or
5:12Puka Nakua kind of in that 3-4 spot. You do have to get a little bit lucky, I think, in the second
5:18round, that maybe a running back would fall back to you.
5:21But ultimately, if I'm in a league that starts three wide receivers, I'd be more open to starting, you know, like a Puka and then get A.J.
5:29Brown or Nico Collins kind of thing, depending on who falls.
5:32You can also get some starts where maybe Derrick Henry or Devon Achan would fall to you in the second round in those 3-4 spots.
5:39But again, I think you probably do need some ADP fallers just kind of looking at the home league, you know, landscape and seeing what's going on there.
5:48But I agree with you guys. And I do think it's important to note that we heavily prefer Jameer Gibbs over Bijon Robinson as the 101 this year.
5:56That's certainly a question I've gotten a lot. And I think it is a tier gap in its own right.
6:02So I wanted to make that clear on this show, too, that, you know, if you have the 101, we strongly prefer Jameer Gibbs there.
6:09Yeah. So I wanted to just follow up on that for a second here, Mark, because it certainly changed a lot, the
6:15meta around where you should be taking running backs.
6:18It is contrarian this year to do a wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver start.
6:22Even hero running back is a bit contrarian this year.
6:25And the reason that is the case is because when you get to the middle rounds, you're going to be into guys
6:32like Juggins and Skadaboo and Tootin and Dave Montgomery.
6:34And I prefer wide receivers in that range over those guys almost every time.
6:38And that's why I've still just even though everybody's doing it, I still prefer the running back heavy start.
6:44So even in leagues where I'm forced to start three wide receivers here, Mark, are you worried that if you start go
6:50wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver, you're going to end up passing on a bunch of the wide receiver values in the
6:57mid range in favor of running backs who I have concerns about?
7:00Maybe you don't. I have some concerns about the running backs, the middle rounds there.
7:05Sure. I'm definitely worried about that. But I think also in redraft leagues, one of the advantages you have at the running
7:11back position is being able to kind of, you know, place bets on ambiguous backfields.
7:15And I would say rounds like eight to 10 range, you also have the waiver wire to play throughout the season, which
7:22we don't in best ball as well. And so if running backs do end up getting injured this year, contrary to the
7:28past couple of years, you know, there's probably going to be some waiver wire targets that, you know, become valuable fantasy assets throughout the season.
7:35So sure, it definitely puts you in, I think a little bit behind the hate ball.
7:40I would much rather have at least one running back, you know, in the first three rounds, I would say.
7:46But again, some, I don't just want to reach on a running back just to, just to secure that position and, and
7:52take like a Kyron Williams in the second round over someone like Nico Collins or AJ Brown.
7:57So, you know, certainly want to go into drafts with, with an idea of what I want to do, but I'm not
8:04going to say, oh, I'm taking running back here regardless of who else is available.
8:08Yeah. And to be clear, I think Jamar Chase and Puka Nakua are incredible picks.
8:12I would take them at pick three and pick four, like absolutely incredible outlooks and profiles.
8:17I've seen a lot of people lately take running back over JSN when they get pick five.
8:22Jack, what do you think about picking from say five and six there, where it's a little bit not as clear how you should be starting?
8:30I think it's perfectly defensible to take Christian McCaffrey over JSN.
8:33JSN was just such an outlier from a target earning perspective last year.
8:37And this offense still doesn't profile to be as good as the Rams or the Bengals passing offense.
8:42So you're really depending on him sustaining that outlier high target share.
8:45And with McCaffrey, we know what he's capable of when he's healthy.
8:49It's a big risk on health as his age and his career workload gets up there.
8:54But you're talking about a guy who's right there with Gibbs and Bijon if he stays healthy for 17 games.
8:59And so if you're comfortable taking that risk on health, I don't mind taking McCaffrey at five.
9:04Okay. One thing, and I've been talking about this for the last few years, this running back barbell strategy in redraft.
9:10I know people who have been listening for the last few years know I've just are probably tired of me talking about it.
9:17It has been an absolute printing press for the last few years.
9:21And by barbell, I mean invest heavily in running backs early, skip over the middle rounds and invest again in flyer running backs with upside or handcuffs late.
9:29I still think that's the right way to play it.
9:32But anyways, this is the first year I think you can actually extend it to round four.
9:37So in previous years, I was like, man, I really want to get this done.
9:41This running back heavy starts two in the first three rounds there.
9:45I've seen drafts and I think there will be some homies, especially depending on what platform you're on, where you can get a Travis Etienne in round four.
9:53You can get Javante Williams in round four. You can get Josh Jacobs in round four.
9:57Maybe I'd include DeAndre Swift in there too. And so to Mark's point about not forcing running back early, if you don't
10:04want to, there are round four options. So like if you go into a draft and you can comfortably project that one
10:10of those guys will be there in round four, I am more open to wide receiver heavy starts because I think in
10:17round four, Etienne, Javante, Jacobs, if he's not suspended, and Swift, I think those are fine picks.
10:22And other people might throw other guys in there too.
10:24You might like Scadaboo. You might like Judkins. You might like Dave Montgomery.
10:28You could throw other guys into that mix as well.
10:31So what do you think about round four here, Mark?
10:34Is it running back, wide receiver? We've lost some wide receivers in this range too, you know, to injury concerns like Buke, etc.
10:41Burden is now in round five. So yeah, Mark, any more thoughts here on the round four landscape?
10:46Yeah, so I have noted down if you do start, you know, three wide receivers in the first three rounds that Etienne
10:52and Swift are the two guys that I would want to target kind of in the fourth and fifth round.
10:58Ideally, Etienne is going there currently. We'll see if Alvin Kamara sprained MCL injury like moves his ADP up much in home leagues.
11:05But I think DeAndre Swift for sure. His ADP is typically like in the low 50s in home leagues.
11:11I think he's an awesome way to start your running back room if you start wide receiver heavy.
11:16We'll also get to tight ends in a second.
11:18But I think Colson Loveland in the fourth round is really someone I'm going to be targeting heavily in home leagues.
11:25You know, I'm typically not a Brock Bowers in the second or Trey McBride in the second.
11:29I'd rather take the stab on Loveland in the fourth there.
11:33So he's, you know, without playing my cards out too much with my home league mates, hopefully they're not listening.
11:38But Colson Loveland is certainly a guy I want to get on as many redraft teams as possible this year.
11:44Yeah, and, you know, we're pulling into our half PPR rankings, I guess an aggregate of home league ADP across a bunch of home league sites.
11:52And, like, I'm looking at ADP of Brees Hall 32, Swift 51, ETN 41, Montgomery 49.
11:57And then you start to get into the more upside but flimsier profiles.
12:00And so in a 12-team league, like, it's tougher for me on Travion Henderson.
12:04It's tougher for me on Tootin, Engedarian Price, and Bucky Irving.
12:08Like, their range of outcomes is wider. And I think when playing against 12, 11 other people, that I don't need to take swings like that as hard.
12:16I will note too that one of the advantages of drafting at the back of the first round is I think the 3-4 turn is really strong.
12:24I think that's a really flat tier if you can get guys that I really like at both the end of the
12:30third and the beginning of the fourth round. Whereas, like, the 2-3 turn, if you're drafting, you know, in that one or
12:36two spot, I do think that that is kind of a tougher spot where I don't feel as vindicated on some of
12:43my takes of players that go in that range.
12:46Yeah, and, I mean, there's a lot of wide receivers that are available there too, that 3-4 turn.
12:51You know, I like Demeka Aguka there. Hopefully his toe is okay.
12:54Zay Flowers can be there. Devonta Smith can be there.
12:57Ladd McConkie, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Waddell. There's a lot of guys at the 3-4 turn at the wide receiver position you can get into.
13:04And when you start at the back there, that just, like, sets up perfectly because you already have likely the running back start.
13:11I always go back to this tiebreaker stuff, Jack.
13:13You know, like, yeah, I think it's really close between Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley.
13:18I think it's really close between CeeDee Lamb and Kenneth Walker.
13:21But then when I get to, say, round three or round four, like we were just talking about, I don't think it's
13:27close between Zay Flowers and Cam Scadaboo. I don't think it's close between Junkins and Waddell.
13:32I prefer the wide receiver there every time. You know, Dave Montgomery versus Luther Burden.
13:37I prefer wide receiver there every time. So, like, as I'm starting to, like, come together with my strategy, I'm always thinking,
13:43if it's close, where do I want to be at later where it's not close?
13:47So, Jack, anything to add here on running back before we move on to other parts of strat?
13:53Yeah, I'll just add that definitely it feels better from a structural perspective to take the running back in round one and probably in round two.
14:00But part of the reason we're still taking Jamar Chase at pick three or Pukenuku at pick four or Justin Jefferson potentially
14:07in the top ten is because from a projection standpoint, we do have those wide receivers really separating.
14:12So I don't think you want to pigeonhole yourself into taking two running backs in the first two rounds if there's a
14:18really capable wide receiver worth taking at that pick.
14:21But it's certainly something to be mindful of because I do agree with you that in rounds three, four, five, six, it
14:27does feel better to be able to pound wide receivers.
14:30Yep. All right. Let's go to quarterback strategy for this year.
14:33It's a really interesting landscape at quarterback. We are getting lower prices on some really strong dual threat quarterbacks.
14:39Not Josh Allen. He's still very expensive. We'll talk about him more in a second.
14:43And Lamar is also more expensive. Lamar Jackson is also more expensive in season long than he was in best ball.
14:49I'm talking about specifically Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Drake May.
14:53Quarterback is incredibly deep this year. But if any of those guys slipped to round six, it's tough for me not to
14:59pull the trigger on Jaden Daniels who could easily run for 800 yards and throw for 30 touchdowns.
15:04Jalen Hurts, who could run for 15 touchdowns easily.
15:07And Drake May, who is clearly ascending as one of the best quarterbacks in the league and sneaky dual threat guys.
15:13So I don't want to take a quarterback early, but these guys around six, it's really tough for me to pass on.
15:19Mark, any thoughts on the overall quarterback landscape this year?
15:22Yeah, I agree with you. I generally don't want to take a quarterback early.
15:26But when we get into the sixth round, I no longer consider that early.
15:30So this year, I'm totally targeting Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Drake May in the sixth round.
15:35As you mentioned, I'm probably overlooking the pocket quarterbacks a little bit in that range in terms of Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott a little bit later.
15:43I just don't necessarily think they have the top two or three upside that the rushing quarterbacks do.
15:48But certainly, yes, once you attack Jalen Hurts and Jaden Daniels specifically in that range.
15:53I also think, too, in redraft leagues, people don't want to take Jaden Daniels last year because he got hurt and they invested a high pick in him.
16:01And I was at a family wedding and one of my mother-in-law's friends came up to me and saying, hey, I have the 101 pick.
16:08I need to pick your brain a little bit.
16:11So I told her to take Gibbs. We went through kind of the whole draft.
16:15She had her ex-husband drafting in the two hole behind her.
16:18So she's like, I got to get this right.
16:21And I said, oh, yeah, I do like Jaden Daniels this year again.
16:25And her response was, oh, I can't draft him.
16:27He got hurt for me last year. You know, so I think that carries over a lot to this season.
16:33So I do think in a lot of home leagues, I'm going to end up with Jaden Daniels or Jalen Hurts in
16:40the sixth round and hope that this ADP holds because I think that's an awesome value.
16:44Yeah. I mean, I'm not saying all of them are going to make it to the sixth round, but one of them might sneak through, you know?
16:52And so I'm always like just tracking those five guys, Allen, Lamar, and the three we just mentioned to see where they're going to go.
16:59And if one of them will slip to me in round six, but you know, the other side of this Jack is
17:06that, yeah, I think they're awesome picks in round six.
17:09Typically in most leagues, most people are taking just one quarterback in a one quarterback redraft league.
17:14So then someone like, if you go back and look at our mock that we did, I believe Jack got Jackson Dart
17:20in like round 13 or like, you're going to get Trevor Lawrence in round 12 or Jared Goff in round 15.
17:26And then I'm looking back, I'm like, God, I burned quarterback in round six.
17:30I could have had Jackson Dart in round 13.
17:33And so there's just so many quarterbacks this year that I don't know.
17:37It's interesting how deep it is. Jack, any thoughts on playing quarterback this year?
17:41Yeah, I agree with you guys in the sixth round.
17:44My experience with a lot of home leagues is that a lot of these high end quarterbacks don't make it that far.
17:50And the quarterbacks on average go too early. So if you can get Daniels or Hertz in the sixth round, I think
17:56that those are both really strong picks. But if you miss out on that top tier, really even the top two tiers,
18:03extending it down to Jalen Hertz, I think you can wait a while in most leagues.
18:08This is a spot where you do have to know your league, though, because there are some leagues where everyone's taking two
18:14quarterbacks and you don't want to end up with Sam Darnold as your QB one.
18:18But projection wise, we have a very small difference between the QB seven or eight and the QB 17 or 18 this year.
18:25So I don't really see the point in paying up for a Patrick Mahomes or a Trevor Lawrence in the seventh round,
18:31let's say, when you could just wait and draft someone like Bo Nix or Jared Goff significantly later and continue to load
18:38up on running back wide receiver and potentially even tight end.
18:41So I think that there's merit in taking one of the high end guys if you can get them.
18:47I think that in a lot of leagues that I've seen, they will probably go too early, in which case you're totally
18:53fine to wait until the last few rounds of your draft to take your QB one.
18:58Yeah. And so what Jack is describing, there is a very, very flat tier for us at quarterback.
19:03And I know, Mark, you've talked about this before.
19:05If you guys listen to the ETE shows, very few points are separating our, say, QB, I don't know, QB 10 from QB 22 roughly.
19:13And so like there's no reason to reach for that whatsoever.
19:16I have some guys that I personally like more than others in that range.
19:20I think the idea of taking a platoon, in other words, two quarterbacks in this range and playing matchups, you're going to get them very, very late.
19:28Like it's almost free to start dark Kyler and have both of them on your team.
19:33You know, Stafford, Nix, Purdy, Baker, Love, maybe Malik Willis and it'll build a deeper format.
19:37Like there is a lot you can do there and just take two cheaply and play matchups.
19:42So Mark, if you do miss on that round six range, what do you think about playing that back tier?
19:48Yeah, absolutely. I love that. I do think I will say like part of the advantage of getting the quarterback in the
19:54six, if they do fall, I agree with Jack.
19:57I bet, you know, most in home leagues that will probably go in the fifth with, with Jane Daniels and Lamar for sure.
20:04Um, but, but we'll see there, I think the advantage that gives you not only on the potential points edge, but then
20:10I feel very comfortable, comfortable only rostering one quarterback.
20:13Whereas if you do rate weight to the QB 12, you know, on range, then I do think it probably is more
20:19optimal to draft two quarterbacks and hopefully like one emerges as the clear starter, but then you are using a bench spot
20:26that could potentially be used on a high upside running back or wide receiver instead.
20:30And so I do think that is a slight advantage of targeting, you know, the upper end of, of quarterbacks, but, but
20:36certainly, you know, if I'm not getting those guys, I am very comfortable waiting.
20:40Like Bo Nix goes late. Brock Purdy is someone I think is, is very underrated as a fantasy quarterback.
20:46People do not talk about his rushing nearly enough.
20:49I mean, Brock Purdy has, has averaged, um, over four points per game rushing the last two seasons.
20:54He started to scramble a lot. And then you also have Kyler Murray, who I think people are sleeping on quite a bit.
21:01He's got great weapons in Minnesota. And then ultimately, you know, if you really, really want to push it, like Malik Willis
21:07is, is pretty much always there at the end.
21:10And then Daniel Jones, you know, is absolutely free and, and redraft leaves.
21:13He's going as like the QB 28. So I think with kind of how things have developed this off season with, with
21:20Daniel Jones, you know, he's, he's very free and, and was, was one of the, was one of the key, you know,
21:26waiver pickups last year when he started shredding for the Colts.
21:29So I do think it's probably, you know, wait as late as you can, if you don't get the, that top tier or second tier of quarterbacks.
21:37Yeah. And the bigger your bench is, the more you can do this to quarterback stuff.
21:42Cause to Mark's point, if you only have like three bench spots or four bench spots, it's really hard to carry two quarterbacks.
21:49There's going to be a ton of good ones on waivers though.
21:52You could try to do the streaming thing. If you have 10 bench spots, I like carrying two quarterbacks late and playing matchups.
21:59We know somebody like Jared Goff is extremely weather dependent.
22:02There's other guys like Darnold that are pressure dependent.
22:04We can kind of project that stuff beforehand and figure out what's a good matchup.
22:09What's not a good matchup and figure out who to start between those guys.
22:13And I'll again, Cape for Jackson Dart to be part of a two quarterback platoon, just because he is an insane rusher or can be an insane rusher.
22:21Like what he did for a rushing perspective last year.
22:24I hate the Nagy stuff. I hate the Malik neighbors is hurt, but gosh, you know, Jackson Dart running for 800 yards is not that crazy whatsoever.
22:32And that is just such a cheat code when you get your quarterback to do that.
22:36Okay. Last question for me at quarterback. Everybody wants to know, Jack, Josh Allen is the best player in fantasy in terms of raw points.
22:44He's outrageously consistent. He has this insane floor. He scores 20 points every week.
22:48He has these insane ceiling games where he runs for three and throws for three, hits 40 points.
22:53Is Josh Allen a good pick where he's going to go in redraft leagues, which I assume is somewhere around the two,
22:59three turn, maybe earlier in round two. Is Josh Allen a good pick there?
23:04For me, not in redrafts. I actually like Allen in best ball when he goes around later and you need multiple quarterbacks
23:10because we see the QB two prices are inflated this offseason.
23:13But that's not really a factor in one QB redraft release where you only need to draft one quarterback per team and
23:20he's going about around higher than he is in best ball.
23:23So I don't really see myself ever taking Josh Allen in a redraft league this summer.
23:27What about a 10-team league or an 8-team league?
23:30Because in those setups, I'm really tended to take Josh Allen early in those setups.
23:34What do you think there, Jack? It depends on the league.
23:38If it's a softer league where I'm confident I can get running back and wide receiver value later, I'd be more open to it.
23:45The problem with that mindset is that in the softer leagues, you're probably going to see Josh Allen go higher because these
23:51people like drafting the highest scoring players and Josh Allen might be the highest scoring player in fantasy this season.
23:57And so I'm open to it in the smaller leagues where you can get running back and wide receiver later.
24:03But in general, I think that in home leagues especially, his price just gets so inflated.
24:07Right. And yeah, this is all about like value over replacement.
24:11You know, like the difference between Josh Allen and Kyler Murray is going to be big.
24:15It will not be as big as the gap between, say, Kenneth Walker and Rashad White or something like that.
24:21You know, so just think through the two V2s there is why it's tough for us on Josh Allen there in the middle of round two.
24:29Let's stick with the onesie positions here, Mark. I think we should start with the Bowers conversation because this is hard.
24:35You mentioned that you're not on Bowers in round two.
24:38This is hard for me because I actually think Bowers is going to have an insane season, like an actually insane, awesome season.
24:44The problem is he better have that at the tight end position.
24:48You better be really sure he's going to have that.
24:51So I see both sides of this, Mark. What do you think?
24:54Or I guess you're out on it. Why do you think no Bowers here in round two and redraft?
25:00Yeah, I think it's more so. I am targeting Colson Loveland a couple of rounds later.
25:05It's not that I think Bowers is going to have like a bad season necessarily.
25:09I do think there are some warts to the Bowers profile, though, in terms of just the offensive environment he's playing.
25:15And I guess I'm not as sold that like Clint Kubiak coming in is just going to make the Raiders, you know, a top 10 offensive team.
25:23They do have Kirk Cousins and another, you know, rookie quarterback there and Fernando Mendoza.
25:27I'm less sold on kind of the production there.
25:30So, you know, it's just such a premium pick.
25:32And ideally, I do think this is this changes for sure.
25:36If you're in a 10 team league and like, again, you only start to running back to wide receivers, like I'd probably
25:42be much more open to taking Bowers in the second.
25:45That's that's not typically the format of my league.
25:48So I've felt, you know, I pass him over a little bit more.
25:51I will say to like Ryan Paganetti, who's been doing the rounds on a lot of NFL coverage.
25:57He worked in the in the Raiders front office last year, which is just super awesome having his insight and access to his knowledge.
26:04And, you know, he said that they were going to pump hours with with more targets and trying to have him set
26:10like the NFL record for catches in a season, which when you look at this wide receiver core, you know, that's certainly
26:16on the table with what the Raiders have going.
26:19So, you know, I do get the appeal. It's just, man, I just have a tough time pulling trigger in the middle of the second round on him.
26:27So I just mentioned value over replacement. To me, that is the argument to take Bowers in round two, that he has
26:34a historic season and you basically enter every matchup with a huge lead on your opponent in projection, because we're going to
26:40have Bowers projected for 20 something points and someone else is starting Tucker craft who we have for like 11 and at
26:46other positions, it's just easier to make up that ground.
26:49That is always the argument for tight end early Jack.
26:52Do you have a take on this at all?
26:55What do you think about Bowers in round two?
26:58I'm pro Bowers and I generally like getting one of the elite tight ends, which I'd categorize as Brock Bowers, McBride, Loveland or Tyler Warren.
27:05Bowers and Loveland are my two preferred. And I think that with Bowers specifically, it becomes an easier click if you took
27:11a running back in the first round, because we've talked about not falling behind at running back and how quickly running back
27:18can fall off and liking the receiver value in the middle round.
27:21So if you have a running back in the first round, like a McCaffrey or a Jonathan Taylor, it becomes a lot
27:28easier to take Bowers because then you've got the elite tight end, you've got the elite running back and you can still
27:34catch up a wide receiver over the next few rounds.
27:37I think, you know, what I think of my opponents matters too.
27:40You know, if they're going to make a lot of mistakes down board at running back and wide receiver, it's much easier
27:47for me to say, I'm going to take a tight end in round two.
27:51Like if they're going to let, I don't know, if they're going to let Travis Etienne slip to the end of round
27:57four, I'm way more comfortable taking Bowers in round two.
28:00And so part of that is the platform you play on, you know, I think if I'm up against a bunch of
28:07people that aren't that prepared and we're playing on ESPN, I am so confident that I'm going to get some crazy values later.
28:13If it's on Yahoo, I'm not as confident like their default rankings are way sharper than ESPN or sleeper CBS or anything like that.
28:20So, you know, there's some nuance and some soft skills.
28:23I think that that matter when preparing. Um, I also, do you think like in home leagues, like as Bowers even locked
28:30in as a tight end one, I think people come in and, you know, not grinding this stuff all off season might,
28:36might just see Trey McBride there and be like, why is, why is Trey McBride going after Brock Bowers?
28:42You know? So I certainly think that's a case too, where like if Bowers does slip to the end of the second
28:48or early third round, you know, I think it's much more palatable there.
28:52Whereas like if it's Brock Bowers or Derek Henry, you know, in a half PPR home league, like I'm probably taking Derek Henry right there.
28:59Um, and Bauer, like, I don't, I don't know if I'm as sold as like Bowers, you know, it goes in the
29:05top 18 to 19 picks or something. Yeah. And to be clear, if you go to our, um, half PPR rankings, if
29:12you have draft kit, I mean, we have Brock Bowers 22nd overall, you know, well behind Derek Henry and to Mark's point,
29:18the ADP that we're pulling in here, uh, Brock Bowers 21.3, Trey McBride 22.3.
29:22It has gotten much wider than that in the best ball streets, but in redraft to Mark's point, I didn't even realize that that is very close.
29:30Like Derek Bride is going to be a tough click for me there.
29:34If his ADP is, uh, 22. Um, okay. The other thing I want to talk about at tight end is this idea
29:40of, if you don't get one of the elites, just stone cold waiting and waiting and waiting.
29:45And there's some options late that I think you can take shots on.
29:49Um, George Kittle is our tight end nine. I don't know how long you can wait for him with more positive news.
29:56There's been positive news around Dalton Kincaid. I think he's has the upside to be a top five tight end.
30:01He's our tight end, uh, 10. Um, I don't know how long you can wait for him.
30:06Isaiah likely, I think we think is a bit overdrafted right now at an ADP of 105.
30:11Once you get past that, it's really hard for me to like find guys that I think can compete.
30:17And so in a head to head game, I kind of want to get one of the top eight cutting it off at Kyle Pitts.
30:24And that includes Laporta, Fannin, Kraft, and then the four quote unquote elites that we already talked about.
30:29So Jack, any more thoughts on tight end? How much of a priority is it for you to get onto one of these top eight tight ends?
30:37Yeah, I'm with you there. And that's why I'm even prioritizing the top four.
30:41I would cut it off after Fannin. I'll note that as we're recording this on August 20th, Sam Laporta hurt his hip
30:48today, and we don't know if he's going to be available for week one.
30:52So that's certainly one to watch because I'd have Laporta before Fannin, assuming he's fully healthy.
30:57Um, but I think that Fannin is the last one that I'd be really comfortable with as my tight end one.
31:03If we get more positive Kittle news and we know that he's going to play in week one, I think you could
31:09throw him into that group as well. But I really do like getting one of the top eight or nine, kind of
31:15the opposite of what we've talked about at quarterback where you can wait forever.
31:20Yeah, it's tough to wait forever at tight end.
31:22And like, I like the George Kittle stuff, but I can't have him be my only tight end.
31:27You know, he's 33 years old. He's coming off an Achilles.
31:31I don't know what he's gonna look like. I'm not confident that he's gonna play week one.
31:36I think he's gonna play sometime in September. I wouldn't bet my life on it.
31:40So like if you wait, and you get down to Kittle and Kincaid, I think you're gonna need to end up having
31:46two on your team, which I don't love carrying two tight ends.
31:50Maybe I'll do it for the first week just to see how it goes with Kittle's health or something like that.
31:56But yeah, Mark, any more on downboard tight end strategy?
31:59I think there are a few targets that at the very end, I'd be okay.
32:03Taking a swing on Juwan Johnson sticks out as one of those guys with the Jordan Tyson injury news.
32:09I think honestly, Juwan Johnson is going to project as like a top eight to 10 tight end for us in week
32:15one, or at least until Jordan Tyson comes back.
32:18So I think if you are waiting towards the end, he really stands out as a value option.
32:23I do want to shout out like Terrence Ferguson as well on the Rams.
32:27There's a chance in week one, his role is way better than we're anticipating.
32:31Like he could be in the tight end one discussion.
32:34So I kind of want to take, you know, shots on upside guys like that, as opposed to, you know, someone like
32:41Pat Friermuth or, or, you know, any other name way at the end.
32:44But Juwan and Terrence Ferguson specifically stuck out as me as late round, you know, hey, we'll just see how this goes in week one.
32:52And again, I think Juwan is going to project really well for us going into the start of the season.
32:57I'm working on the exploiting the default articles. ESPN one is already up.
33:01Yahoo will be up before this, you guys listen to this show.
33:05One thing that I'm noticing is that that those tight end five through tight end eight are really up in ADP.
33:11In other words, Fannin, Kraft, Laporta, and Pitts go way higher in redraft than in best ball, or then I think that they should.
33:18And that's just another argument for getting one of the top four.
33:21Like I think the top four are priced somewhat appropriately.
33:24McBride, it looks to be a little bit overvalued in ADP, but the top four looks priced somewhat appropriately.
33:30You're going to have to pay. I think if people are going off default ranks on any of the applets really to
33:36get Fannin, Laporta, Pitts, Kraft, and yeah, I think Laporta's gonna be okay.
33:40I really like him. Maybe this gives a little bit of an ADP dip here on Laporta with the hip thing.
33:46All right. Wide receiver. So, you know, this is the inverse of running back.
33:50There's fewer viable wide receivers now in fantasy football than there was four years ago, three years ago, because teams are just straight up passing less.
33:58There's fewer wide receivers on the field. There's more tight ends and running backs and fullbacks on the field.
34:03You can take some really low scores at wide receiver now.
34:07The flip side of that is the receivers that are on the field, they're getting to compete with dusty tight ends for
34:13targets, and they benefit in a big way. So, how that's translated to ADP, people are pushing running backs up so much, you get quote-unquote boring wide receivers.
34:21I don't know. Devontae Adams, Mike Evans, even non-boring guys like Jamison Williams, I think should be going way higher, or he
34:27would have been going higher in a different iteration of fantasy in this running back heavy iteration.
34:32You can get those guys through the middle rounds.
34:35So, I know I've been talking about this for a few years, but to me, the middle round wide receiver is where we win.
34:42Jack, any more thoughts here on overall wide receiver strategy and landscape for this season?
34:46Yeah, I just want to point out that I think that's kind of what we're seeing at the top because we've spent
34:53a lot of this episode talking about how we like getting running backs in the first two rounds, and yet in our
34:59half PPR rankings, we still have Jamar Chase, Pukunikua, JSN, Justin Jefferson, Aminra St.
35:03Brown, and CeeDee Lamb in the top 10, I believe.
35:06And that's because those are the true alpha target earners that are going to be out there on every play in solid to above solid passing offenses.
35:14And after that, there is kind of a tier gap.
35:17I think really Jamar and Pukunikua are probably in a world of their own in that regard.
35:22But I think that that is the argument for taking one of these hyper-talented wide receivers in the first round, even though
35:28structurally it feels better taking running back, is that the wide receiver landscape has changed a little, and it has made those super high-end guys more valuable.
35:36Yeah, and I feel like the market has adjusted, Mark.
35:39You know, like the way NFL defenses play now, it is harder for guys like Xavier Worthy, Matthew Golden, Alec Pierce.
35:45It's harder for these guys to be consistent and good fantasy performers, just based on the way defenses play now.
35:51But the market's adjusted. You can get Matthew Golden at like 120 overall or 130 overall.
35:56You can get Jaden Reed at 90 overall, even though he's only going to play in the slot.
36:01There's just a lot. Xavier Worthy goes, you know, 110, 115 in redrafts.
36:05So there's definitely talented guys down board. It's just going to be, you know, you're going to take some really low scores.
36:11You know, that's the bottom line. You're going to take some really low scores.
36:15Those guys are going to be inconsistent. Any more thoughts on general wide receiver landscape this year?
36:20Well, that's why I'm still open to starting out wide receiver heavy.
36:24I think one thing that, you know, we talk about in the best ball landscape that transfers over to redraft is kind
36:30of the idea of draft them early or draft a lot, but don't do both.
36:35So I think, you know, if you're starting out wide receiver heavy early in drafts, you can, you can just kind of
36:41stop drafting after four or five wide receivers and lock in, you know, the, the ones that we feel really good about
36:47their, their volume and talent level, and then just fill your bench with, with high upside running back stashes and, and, you
36:54know, maybe a couple of quarterbacks and in that scenario.
36:57And so, you know, I hate to say it's like very, very draft dependent, but I do really think it is.
37:03And, and, and yeah, kind of looking down the board at values to me, it really comes back to the, the rookie wide receivers.
37:10You mentioned Matthew Gold in there. I also like both of the Browns guys, sadly, Casey Concepcion and, and Denzel Boston, maybe
37:16we can get the Sean Watson off the field so they can get some, some usable targets.
37:21Um, the John Shribling is also going, you know, way later and, and like Shribling is someone that, that two week one,
37:28if, if George Kittle's not healthy or just his role is, is really strong that, that, you know, it could be an
37:34absolute steal in like the one 40. So, um, uh, you know, I think, I think it's certainly fine waiting and taking
37:40more of the upside stabs, but I'm probably not in a redraft league, taking someone like a Debo Samuel necessarily in that
37:47range, because I do want, you know, more, more of the upside swings later in drafts.
37:51Yeah. And I talked about this. You can read some of my articles about draft strategy or player by player notes or the perfect draft.
37:59All that is in the draft kit. Um, I identified some wide receivers that I like late, but Jack, am I off
38:05base in thinking that the wide receivers in the mid range, I'm talking burden, Mike Evans, Jamison Williams, McLaurin, Parker Washington.
38:11Um, that range to me is like where I want to be, where I think the best picks are in that range.
38:18Do you disagree at all there, Jack, or any more thoughts on the mid range of wide receiver?
38:23No, I agree with that. And I think that as we talk about these high end wide receivers separating more because teams
38:29are running more and playing more tight ends and all that stuff, the market has adjusted pretty starkly.
38:35If you compare last year's ADP to this year, running backs are going way earlier this year.
38:40So I think that targeting that range of wide receivers is, is what I want to do as well.
38:45Yeah. I think important also, like when you're taking wide receivers late, like you want to take big swings, you know, I
38:52think Jacoby Myers is probably a little bit underrated.
38:54In best ball. He is not a player that I would take in redraft at all.
38:59And we'll get more of that. Uh, those strategy differences between best ball here in a second, but I'd be remiss, Mark.
39:05We didn't talk about kicker and defense because this is a, I think people kind of like thumb their nose at it
39:12and they're like, Oh, people play with kickers or defense or idiots, or I think there's actually a big edge in understanding,
39:18like how to think about this stuff, which kickers to stream off the wire, which defense to stream off the wire, how early to take them in draft.
39:26So I actually don't mind when they're in drafts.
39:29I do think that there is, um, an edge here.
39:32Let's start with kicker Mark, because the big question is Brandon Aubrey.
39:35I'm tempted to take this guy like way earlier than any human normally should in the right setup.
39:40So Mark, what do you think about Brandon Aubrey and kicker thoughts?
39:44It pretty much is Brandon Aubrey or bus set at the kicker position in terms of like, you know, do I draft a kicker early?
39:51If, if the, if the question is Brandon Aubrey, I think, you know, you very well could say yes.
39:57Um, there is a little nuance too, in terms of your league settings.
40:01If you play in a half PPR or standard league where you're starting, you know, one quarterback, two, two running backs, two
40:07wide receivers and a flex, and then it's kicker and defense, like your kicker score is going to, you know, take up
40:13a decent amount, um, of, of your total, you know, final score of that week.
40:18So I think you can target Brandon Aubrey and in those formats, even heavy, heavier, like, you know, maybe in the, in
40:24the ninth or 10th round, honestly, in terms of looking at Aubrey's career, he's averaged 11.1, uh, points per game, which last
40:31year would have finished as the wide receiver 16 and half PPR.
40:34That was tied with, with Jamison Williams, you know, who's going in the fifth round this year, but it changes a lot
40:40when you look at full PPR formats, that would be equal to the wide receiver 38 and full PPR.
40:46So again, scoring formats in your league depends a ton.
40:49Um, and then, you know, beyond Brandon Aubrey over the last five years, no kicker has averaged more than 9.6 points per game.
40:56Again, Aubrey was at 11.1. So it's really a big tier gap from him to the next, you know, reasonable kicker.
41:02You can get kind of, um, you know, a 10 plus point per game season out of kickers, but it's not as
41:08predictable as, as Aubrey has been so far over the last three years.
41:12So, you know, a pretty, pretty big tier gap there, I think.
41:15And ultimately to like a lot of ESPN standard leagues or your standard scoring, the only, they only go up to, you
41:22know, five points for a 50 yard field goal.
41:24They aren't, they aren't tracking six points for a 60 yard field goal, just because historically in the NFL, you know, kickers weren't attempting those nearly as often.
41:33And now we're getting that. So maybe your league, you know, counts six points for a 60 yard field goal, which would,
41:39which would make it even more advantageous to, to get Brandon Aubrey or like a Cam Little who have, who have these big legs in that range.
41:47So I would say it's very nuanced towards your league, but certainly, um, Aubrey, I do think is, is a reasonable target
41:53ahead of, of some other names that you would, you would be shocked, I think to, to realize like how much of
42:00an edge she's provided over the last few years.
42:02Right. And so the only way that I would do this setup, this Aubrey thing would be half PPR relatively small starting lineups.
42:09Now, Brandon Aubrey's ADP that we're pulling in is 120th overall.
42:12So that's basically the 10th round. There are some very good players like, you know, stripling might go in the 10th round.
42:19I don't want to really be passing on stripling for Brandon Aubrey most likely, but I'd at least consider it in round
42:2510 or 11 if it was the right, uh, the right setup.
42:29If you do not get Aubrey though, I think last round kicker or streaming kicker probably, uh, makes sense.
42:34Defense mark, I think we can address more quickly here.
42:37I typically try to find one that I slips that I think is really good or one that just has a good, uh, early season matchup.
42:45And you know, your league, if people are carrying a bunch of defenses and streaming is not going to work, that's a different story.
42:52But for most people, you're going to find something every week.
42:55That is a pretty good spot to stream your defense.
42:58So Mark, any final thoughts here on defense? Yeah, I think drafting defenses early is probably the dumbest draft day decision you can make.
43:05I certainly think waiting on defense till, till the last round is, is the way to go.
43:10There's always going to be streamers that, that are available and you know, the defense eight to 12 kind of ADP ranges this year.
43:17There's three that really stand out to me. That's the chargers, Jaguars and Steelers.
43:21Uh, the chargers opened their season at home against the Cardinals and the Raiders the first two weeks.
43:26They're, they're massive, you know, touchdown plus favorites in both of those games.
43:30The Jaguars get the Browns at home in week one.
43:33That's very likely going to be Deshaun Watson. Who's been an absolute dumpster fire in terms of taking sacks and turning the ball over.
43:40Then you get the Steelers at home week one against the Falcons and what looks like it's going to be to a tug of Iloa.
43:47So I think those three, you know, none of them are going earlier than the defense seven or eight in leagues.
43:53I think waiting and taking them in the last round is, is, is the way to go.
43:58God Steelers against Tua. God, I'm worried, man. I hope Panics gets back there soon.
44:02Okay. We'll talk more about that with Silva next week.
44:05Um, okay. Last thing before we get out of here on strategy, I know a lot of us, including myself have been
44:12on best ball brain for a long time. Now, there are very clear things.
44:16I think we need to do differently in redraft than best ball.
44:19I'm want to open this up to you guys.
44:22Also, the first thing that comes to mind for me is that, yes, we always want upside, right?
44:27We want there to be a path to a big hit at cost.
44:31That is nothing new or groundbreaking. I do want to be clear that it's counterintuitive, but the boring stuff is better in best ball.
44:38Like since we can't drop anyone, since there's no actual bench taking zeros or really risky stuff isn't as good as it
44:44is in say redraft where I can take a swing on an 80 Mitchell or someone like that, or something really risky, Jaden blue.
44:51And if it doesn't work out, I just drop him.
44:54Whereas in best ball, there's no dropping. So to me, that is like the most important thing.
44:59Guys like Kobe Myers are worth way more in best ball to me than they are in redraft.
45:04Jack, thoughts on that or anything else you want to say about differences between best ball and redraft?
45:10Yeah, I'd say especially late, you want to really prioritize upside.
45:13Like in best ball, we've been high on Cooper Cupp and Calvin Ridley and Jerry Judy and these boring veteran wide receivers all off season.
45:20In redraft, I would have zero interest in them.
45:23I would rather have a guy who might be a stone zero, but he actually has a chance to be a top
45:2936 or a top 24 wide receiver or running back if things go right.
45:33I also think that from a roster construction perspective, Mark kind of touched on this earlier, but things are way different.
45:39If I start wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver with three receivers in the first three rounds, I might only take one
45:46or two more the whole rest of the draft.
45:48And if I have a seven player bench, I might have one wide receiver and six running backs on my bench just
45:55to maximize my chances of hitting on someone like that.
45:58And then I also think that in redraft, there is a huge benefit to guys whose role we will know earlier because
46:04inevitably after week one, someone's going to get hurt or someone's going to have a bigger role than we expect.
46:10And you're going to want to drop someone to pick them up.
46:14If you have a bunch of purely handcuffed running backs who need an injury, who would be really good if the starter
46:20gets hurt, but you have to kind of wait and see if the starter gets hurt.
46:25Those are tough guys to drop. Whereas if you have someone like, like a Terrence Ferguson who Mark mentioned earlier, we might
46:31know in week one, if he suddenly has a massive role, like McVay has done in the past with Puka was the most notable one.
46:38He did it with Kyrie Williams and kind of with Blake Coram as well.
46:42So we might see in week one that, oh, all of a sudden Terrence Ferguson has this big role.
46:48We might also see, oh, he's still a tight end three.
46:51Another one I think would be like a Jalen Knoll who after the Higgins injury yesterday, we don't know.
46:57Higgins played 64% of a snap. He's inside last year.
47:00They still have Xavier Hutchinson, who they like a lot on the outside.
47:03So they could play, they could keep going in the slot.
47:07We'll know in week one, if he's going to be a slot only guy, or if he could actually push for outside wide receiver two duties.
47:14So I think having guys like that, who they might be totally useless after week one, but in that case, you can just drop them.
47:21I think that that's something we should prioritize over guys where you kind of have to wait and see how things play out.
47:28A hundred percent. And basically what Jack's saying is we want to be churning the wire.
47:33Like the way we're going to win in redraft is by churning the wire.
47:37I want to have guys who's, I know early information, figure it out if I can drop them or move on.
47:43So I want to take huge swings. I thought Terrence Ferguson was an awesome example.
47:47Jalen Knoll was on my list. Also as an example, I'd throw Cyrus Allen into the mix as an example of someone
47:54in a deeper league that you could take late and find out very early if he's going to have a real role or not.
48:01Mark, any more thoughts on differences between redraft strategy and best ball strat?
48:05I did want to talk through handcuffing a little bit.
48:07I know that that always gets asked, like, should I, should I handcuff, you know, my first round running back pick?
48:14And to me, I do think there are some spots and season long redraft fantasy where, where you should, or where you could handcuff.
48:21And, you know, to me, it comes down to backfields that are high scoring offenses with a clear, like talented handcuff that
48:27would absorb the majority of the work and kind of going through all the, and there are cheap costs.
48:33I will say that, that like that, the handcuff running back is, is cheap.
48:37And so to me, it pretty much came down to one player and that's Tank Bigsby.
48:41So I do, I do think like if you have Saquon handcuffing him with, with Tank Bigsby is fine because at least
48:48as of now, um, you know, if Saquon were to go down, Tank Bigsby would absorb a massive amount of that rushing workload.
48:54Whereas Will Shipley and the other, you know, running backs they have on the depth chart are probably wouldn't factor in much.
49:01The other name that came to mind was maybe Ray Davis, you know, of the bills, just given how run heavy they are.
49:08You do have Ty Johnson who would likely mix in for some pass down work, but he's currently injured as well.
49:14So those are like the two teams of, of elite offenses with, with a guy, you know, next in line that would
49:20assume the full role and they're very cheap, you know, like Blake Corum doesn't apply to this because he goes in the
49:26nineties, you know, not trying to handcuff Kron Williams with, with Blake Corum.
49:30So, um, I, I do think those are like the two spots this year that I, that I'd be willing to handcuff.
49:37Otherwise I'm, I would avoid it. Handcuff is for sure worth more in redraft because we don't take the zeros.
49:42Like we know when to start him in best ball.
49:45You know, you could have Tank Bigsby on your bench all year.
49:49It could be a lot of zeros, man. If nothing happens to Saquon, whereas yeah, in redraft, I'm keeping him on my bench.
49:56I'm keeping my bench. I keep my bench. I would throw Tyler Algier into the mix.
50:00We'll see what happens with James Connor, but maybe Tyler Algier has a clean path and Jeremiah Love already has a high ankle sprain here.
50:08Um, two more small notes for me on redraft strategy, differing from best ball.
50:12I don't stack like, you know, we talked about this with Leonie some on, I believe it was man versus machine.
50:18I don't remember exactly. Um, stacking is beneficial in redraft leagues, but not like it is in best ball.
50:23And so I did not go out of my way to stack.
50:27If it happens, it happens. I don't go out of my way to stack.
50:31And the last thing is a lot of redraft leagues have IR spots.
50:35There aren't great candidates for IR spots right now.
50:37I think Jordan Tyson is a really good one.
50:40Uh, Zach Charbonnet, I think is a good one, maybe Kittle, but I doubt it because I don't think he's actually going
50:46to start the year, uh, on IR. But my point is that if your league has IR guys that are hurt are worth a little bit more.
50:54Um, Jack, any more thoughts on best ball versus redraft or shall we get out of here?
50:59I think you guys pretty much nailed it. All right.
51:02Hopefully that helped. You guys start developing your strategy for your 12 team or 10 team or 14 lead 14 team redraft league.
51:09Be sure you are updating our rankings. We are making tweaks.
51:12Oh my God, 20, 30 times a day at this point with all the injuries and depth chart news.
51:17So before you guys draft, be sure you're uploading or refreshing the ranks.
51:21Also, if you are going to a ESPN or Yahoo or sleeper draft and you want to see our rankings in the
51:28applet, that is part of DraftKid Pro now. You can find that under tools and, um, get the extension going and you'll
51:34be able to see our ranks in there, which I think is a really big value add to anyone drafting on those sites.
51:41All right. That is going to do it for Mark, for Jack, for producer Ryan, for producer Luke.
51:46I am Adam early bird bet under early bird bundle price expires Monday.
51:50Good luck. Everybody. Bye.
