PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Market Monday: Buy or Sell on Freefalling Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice? (Episode 983 with Adam Levitan)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
15 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 25, 2026
Published
Mon, May 25, 2026
6
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Rashee RiceCalvin RidleyChigoziem OkonkwoJosh DownsTank Bigsby
Player analysis
Player insights
Calvin Ridley
NegativeValue3:05
Calvin Ridley's ADP has dropped due to concerns about his age and the Titans' offensive situation, but he could still have a few impactful games.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
NegativeDepth Chart4:25
Chigoziem Okonkwo's ADP is too high given the uncertainty around the Commanders' receiving corps and the potential addition of another wide receiver.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveProjection8:29
Josh Downs has seen a rise in ADP due to the Colts' need for him to expand his role, especially after the departure of Michael Pittman.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeInjury2:07
Rasheed Rice is recovering from a knee surgery while also facing legal issues, which has caused his ADP to drop significantly.
Insight pagePositiveValue2:23
Rice's ADP has fallen due to his off-field issues, but he remains a better play in full PPR formats where he can excel on underneath routes.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveValue10:17
Tank Bigsby is a strong late-round pick due to his potential as a direct backup to Saquon Barkley, especially in a new offensive scheme.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 983 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and it is time for the show.
0:12You cannot survive without Market Monday. Each week, I examine the biggest risers and fallers in best ball ADP and discuss whether
0:21I'm buying or selling these players at their new prices.
0:25The idea is simple, give you an idea of how the market is thinking about players and also how I'm thinking about them.
0:34Reminder, if you do not yet have the ETR best ball product, I think you're playing at a real disadvantage.
0:41Obviously, I'm biased, but I know how hard we grind every shred of information to ensure our uploadable rankings for every best
0:50ball site are as accurate as possible. It's why the guys who won both the DraftKings Best Ball and the Underdog Best
0:58Ball flagships last year, Sam Shepard and Sam Sherman, they won $2 million each.
1:04That's why they drafted with our ranks. Our best ball product is just $60 and renews 365 days from your purchase date.
1:12So head to EstablishTheRun.com for details. Also, for my true grinders out there, if you're putting in volume, you should check out the Solver Draft Assistant.
1:22Link to that in the best ball tab on ETR.
1:26You can also see how it works on the live streams that we've done with Herzig on our channel and with Overzet on his channel.
1:36All right, going to start with fallers from the last seven days here.
1:41First faller, Malik Neighbors down 5.6 spots to 28th overall on DraftKings.
1:45It's pretty obvious that Neighbors was one of the most mispriced players since 2026 Best Ball opened.
1:52And I think I know why. We have seen so many guys lately come back from ACL tears quickly and at near 100%.
2:01And I think that the market thought that was the case with Neighbors.
2:06But it wasn't. Not only did Neighbors tear the ACL in his right knee, but he also tore his meniscus last season.
2:14He was still on crutches in January. He had knee stiffness throughout the process.
2:19He had another cleanup procedure a few weeks ago to remove scar tissue.
2:24The Giants used to say training camp was the goal.
2:28Now they say week one is the goal. And meanwhile, you see guys with clean ACL tears, you know, Patrick Mahomes out
2:37here dropping back seemingly normally, playing golf, etc. So yeah, we've been well behind market on Malik Neighbors since 2026 Best Ball opened.
2:46Just thought he was very questionable for week one.
2:49Now this week comes more negative Harbaugh quotes and some speculation from beat writers that Neighbors starting the season on Pup is possible.
2:58I want to be clear that I have zero interest right now in full fading Malik Neighbors this season.
3:05His ability to command targets is wild. And I, you know, there's just not much competition there on the Giants anyways.
3:13And we're also talking about best ball here where all the money is in the final two to three weeks.
3:21Would you want to bet against Malik Neighbors getting 12 targets in week 16 at Detroit or in week 17 at Dallas?
3:30I don't really want to bet against that. So the real question to me is when will the negativity around Neighbors bottom out?
3:38What is the low point of his ADP? And I don't really think we're close to that yet.
3:45He's still going to miss OTAs. There'll be headlines around that.
3:50Neighbors almost certainly won't be out there for the start of camp.
3:54There'll be headlines around that. People are going to get more scared.
3:59So we're at 35th overall right now on DraftKings on Malik Neighbors.
4:04I expect the average draft position to sink towards that.
4:07Once I can get Neighbors closer to round four, and I think I will be able to get him there at some point this summer.
4:17Once I can get him around round four, that's where I'll get my exposure to Neighbors.
4:23Until then, it's not for me. Second faller is Rasheed Rice.
4:27Sharp fall 11.1 spots from 16 overall to 27 overall.
4:31This Rasheed Rice is such a wild story, man.
4:35Someone unplug the sim and plug it back in.
4:38I've been doing this fantasy football stuff for 20 years.
4:42This is the first time I've ever had to think about how a player will be rehabbing from an injury from literal jail.
4:51Yes, you heard that right. Rasheed Rice was on probation, got caught smoking weed, immediately got sent to jail.
4:58Coincidentally, just a week earlier, he had a cleanup procedure on his right knee, which came with a four to six week rehab timetable.
5:07So yes, he's recovering from knee surgery in the Dallas County jail.
5:12I'm honestly like not too worried about that. This was not a serious surgery.
5:17It would not shock me at all if he's getting some special treatment.
5:22But most importantly, we're still three and a half months away from week one.
5:28He has a ton of time to get healthy.
5:31The bigger concern for me on Rice is a potential suspension.
5:36The NFL has gotten much more lax on marijuana violations.
5:39But Rice is a special case. You know, Silva's point when we were talking about this privately was that Rasheed Rice is embarrassing the shield.
5:49He's embarrassing the NFL, which is true. In 2024, Rasheed Rice got busted driving 120 miles an hour, gets in a crash, flees the scene.
5:59May of 2024, allegedly punched a photographer. February of 2026, accused of domestic violence.
6:04Legal case there is still open. Now there's probation violation.
6:08So we were at 18 overall on Rice before we found out about the latest cleanup and jail time.
6:15Now we're at 29th overall on underdog, 25th overall on DraftKings.
6:20And we're actually thinking about getting lower than that.
6:23I want to note that Rice is clearly a better play on full PPR DraftKings.
6:29Where Rice wins is on these underneath drag routes, not vertical routes.
6:33But the ceiling in full PPR, you know, is so big.
6:38So this is similar to Neighbors where I want to find the bottom of Rice's ADP and start taking some then.
6:46Not now. I also want to note, related to this, Xavier Worthy is up big in ADP.
6:52The Chiefs are trying to pin Xavier Worthy's miserable 2025 season on the shoulder injury he sustained when that bumbling meathead Travis Kelsey ran into Worthy last year.
7:03I don't know that I'd buy that. But the cost is so low on Worthy.
7:09112 ADP. At that price, given the Rasheed Rice suspension possibilities mess, plus the 2025 injury excuse on Worthy.
7:16I think there's a path to taking shots on him at 112.
7:21Third faller Calvin Ridley down 6.2 spots to 188 overall on DraftKings.
7:25I get why no one wants Calvin Ridley. He's 31 years old.
7:30His quarterback is Cam Ward. The Titans drafted Cardinal Tate fourth overall, gave a massive payday to Wondale Robinson in free agency.
7:39Dike and Io Minora showed flashes as rookies in 2025.
7:42The only argument for Ridley is that despite just being in a dreadful situation, he's actually been fine in yards per target since coming to the Titans.
7:53And you can see how he fits with the Titans this year.
7:57Wondale Robinson underneath in the slot. Carnell Tate, the big play, deep threat.
8:02Ridley, the intermediate veteran route technician. So at 188th overall, I think Ridley is a guy that can have a couple big
8:11games for us and count for us this year.
8:14But I'm really spreading my exposure on late wide receiver flyers right now.
8:19I think there's merit in Ridley, Jeremy Bernard, Ryan Furnoy, Jalen Knoll, Aidy Mitchell.
8:25I'm not going to get super overweight any of those guys, but the most common build this year, these running back heavy
8:33starts, they're going to rely on some of these late round wide receivers hitting.
8:39So I think it's a really important thing to think through as you're doing those running back heavier starts.
8:46Chica Conquo down eight spots to 152 overall. I know we've talked about Antonio Williams here with the commanders already.
8:54I like his chances of having a year one impact.
8:57We've also talked about Terry McLaurin and how new offensive coordinator David Blough plans to use him with a healthy Jaden Daniels.
9:06The guy we haven't talked about is Chica Conquo.
9:09Remember that withered Zach Ertz averaged 5.4 targets per game last two seasons.
9:14Now Debo's gone. Is it crazy to think Chig could be second on the team in targets behind Terry McLaurin?
9:22Now, I do want to be careful on all commanders pass catching stuff because I think they are the team most likely to add a wide receiver.
9:33Brandon Ayuk, Stefan Diggs are still out there. And we are building in a bunch of unlisted targets to our commanders projections.
9:41And that's why we're behind ADP on Chig. I mean, this 153 ADP is really steep when the most likely outcome on Chig isn't a true breakout.
9:51It's a usable score kind of season. So when I think of that, I think of, you know, a lot of 5
10:00for 50, 6 for 45 type of game, which is great.
10:04But I'm not sure it's the right strategy for this year.
10:08And I'm not sure the market is baking in the likelihood commanders sign a wide receiver still.
10:15So, in other words, is it better to try to cobble together those kind of 5 for 50, 6 for 45, those
10:23kind of scores with more late round tight ends, i.e.
10:273 or 4 of Darnell Washington, Greg Dolchich, Gunnar Helm, Terrence Ferguson, Eli Stowers.
10:33Is cobbling together it like that better than taking Chig at 153?
10:37I tend to think so. And so while I like Chig, I'm hoping his ADP gets more reasonable.
10:44Because in that 150 range, the upside running backs and wide receivers are worth more to me right now.
10:52I can't find the upside of a Rashid Shaheed, Omar Cooper, Keaton Mitchell, Jalen Naylor types.
10:58I can't find that in round 19 or 20 where I can find some of those usable weak tight ends.
11:05Let's get to this week's Risers. First one, Josh Downs.
11:09Up to 110 overall. I tend to think of Jaden Reed and Josh Downs similarly.
11:15Players I think are very good but have been pigeonholed as slot only, three wide receiver set only players by their coaches.
11:24The thing about Downs' situation though is that the Colts, they really do need him to expand his role.
11:31Alec Pierce is going to be an every down wide receiver, of course.
11:36But behind him, we're talking about Nick Westbrook-Akine, Ashton Doolin, a ton more dust.
11:41And unlike the Packers coaches, the Colts coaches have actually talked this offseason about expanding Downs into some more outside chances.
11:49But regardless, it's been a really good offseason for Josh Downs.
11:54They let Michael Pittman go. They don't replace him.
11:57They don't draft a wide receiver until round seven.
12:01They talk about Downs. They talk up Downs as a potential outside wide receiver.
12:06I'm still skeptical at 5'9", 171. But I do like being ahead of market in the ranks here.
12:13We're at 102 overall on DraftKings. On Downs against that ADP of 110.
12:18I think he can pay off that ADP as slot only, especially if Alec Pierce turns out to only excel in his previous kind of deep threat role.
12:29And if Downs does play in two wide receiver sets, I mean, I think that 110 ADP will end up looking silly.
12:37Last riser to talk about Tank Bigsby up 4.4 spots to 186 overall.
12:42One strategy I don't want to forget about for best ball this year is just betting on chaos and injuries at the running back position.
12:52As running backs are getting pushed up in the draft and getting more and more expensive in fantasy, there's just more opportunity
13:00cost or more downside if they get hurt. And historically, that has won a lot of money in fantasy.
13:08It has not been a great strategy lately, the contingent running back strategy.
13:13It's not been a great strategy lately because running backs have just stayed healthier than based on expectation.
13:19But I do think if Saquon Barkley were to go down, Tank Bigsby is the very direct backup.
13:26And I think Bigsby can play. And I think this new Sean Mannion scheme, more under center, more Shanahan-esque scheme, I think that's good for Bigsby too.
13:37Dude is still only 23 years old. He got 5.9 yards per carry for the Eagles last year on a small sample, 58 carries.
13:46Bigsby certainly would play in short yardage if Saquon went down.
13:50The problem is the pass catching outlook and the standalone value is pretty bleak, which is why I'm not going overboard.
13:58But I always want to understand which running backs are truly one injury away.
14:04And to me, Bigsby is one of the cleanest ones.
14:08Will Shipley in more of a pass-down-only role. So guys like Isaiah Pacheco behind Gibbs or Brian Robinson behind Bijon, Algier behind
14:16Jeremiah Love, Mike Washington behind Gentry, maybe some of those guys have a bit more standalone value than Bigsby.
14:23But the cost on Bigsby is so cheap. And I think if Barkley went down, Bigsby would outperform those guys.
14:31So I like Bigsby here going late at 186 overall.
14:35All right. That is going to do it for a Memorial Day edition of Market Monday.
14:41I appreciate everyone for listening. Be sure to hit the subscribe button on our free YouTube page so we can continue to
14:50bring you shows you cannot fathom living without, like this one.
14:54Also, important note, Silva's first top 150 rankings of the 2026 fantasy football season are going live this week for DraftKings Pro subscribers.
15:03We'll be doing a show on his hottest initial takes later this week.
15:08Stay tuned for that. For producer Ryan, producer Luke, for Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world, I am Adam.
15:16Good luck, everybody.