Which Wide Receivers Will Break Out In 2026? (Episode 1005 with Matt Harmon, Evan Silva, Adam Levitan)

Matt Harmon highlights a significant decline in AJ Brown's reception perception metrics, with success rates dropping across the board (man, zone, and press) at age 29. Harmon believes 0% of the risk is baked into his current ADP and suggests he should be drafted one round cheaper.

Matt Harmon notes that while Alec Pierce has improved on intermediate in-breaking routes, he remains a 'limited menu' player who functions best as an X receiver. Harmon expresses concern about his lack of versatility to move off-ball or into the slot, and notes that Pierce currently has no timetable for return from injury.

Matt Harmon is willing to give Brian Thomas Jr. a pass for his performance last season, citing health issues. He considers Thomas a primary target for home-run potential in the Jaguars' offense, though he acknowledges the team's crowded receiver room makes it difficult to take a hard-line stance on any individual pass catcher.

Matt Harmon ranks Carnell Tate as his WR1 prospect due to his high floor and ability to win outside and against man coverage. However, Harmon notes concerns regarding Tate's lack of 'easy button' targets (screens, slants) in college and expects Wan'Dale Robinson to potentially lead the Titans in catches due to his familiarity with Brian Daboll's system.

Matt Harmon expresses low conviction on DJ Moore's production in Buffalo, noting that Moore has performed worse in reception perception over the last two years. However, Harmon suggests Moore may fit the Bills' offense better than Chicago's, as his strengths (nine, curl, and slant routes) align with Joe Brady's scheme and Josh Allen's playstyle.

Harmon believes Adams is in a steady decline, noting his success rate versus man/press has dropped to the 61st percentile from his previous 99th percentile peak, though he remains a technician in goal-line situations.

Matt Harmon notes Adams is 34 in December and showed decline last year, with a 61st percentile success rate vs man/press compared to his historical 99th percentile marks. He is no longer a deep threat and relies on high touchdown volume to pay off his ADP. The Rams' interest in AJ Brown suggests they lack confidence in Adams' long-term outlook.

Matt Harmon believes Devonta Smith is overdue for a promotion to a number one receiver role. Smith has demonstrated alpha-like metrics when AJ Brown is off the field and has proven he can win against press coverage, with a 77.6% success rate versus press in 2024 (83rd percentile). While there are concerns about his 170-pound frame holding up to the physical punishment of a full-time X-receiver role over 17 games, his skill set as a separator is elite.

Harmon expects Egbuka to thrive as a movement Z receiver in Zach Robinson's offense, noting that his rookie struggles were largely due to being forced into an outside X role and playing through multiple injuries.

Matt Harmon views Garrett Wilson as a fringe top-10 to top-12 receiver talent who is poised to dominate targets. Despite poor quarterback play and questionable offensive design in previous seasons, Wilson remains one of the league's best separators. Harmon expects the Jets to move Wilson around the formation more effectively this year, utilizing him in the slot to maximize his talent, even if there are concerns about the overall Jets offense.

Harmon highlights McMillan's strong rookie success rates (70% vs. press, 72% vs. man) and proficiency on dig routes (91.5% success), though notes that the Panthers' environment and quarterback play make him a difficult fantasy evaluation.

Harmon notes that while Higgins is a productive red-zone threat (six TDs on 68 targets), he lacks the vertical ability of Nico Collins and is best valued in deeper formats or at a lower ADP (around 130) rather than his current 100 overall price.

Matt Harmon remains high on Jaden Reed, noting his strong success rate against man coverage. Despite the team potentially viewing him as a slot-only player, Harmon hopes to see him play more and believes he is a leading candidate for a breakout season given the Packers' condensed target distribution.

Matt Harmon identifies Jalen Waddle as the most mispriced player in fantasy football. Moving to Denver to be the alpha receiver for Bo Nix, Waddle is expected to thrive in a role similar to Stefan Diggs in Buffalo. Despite playing a difficult X-receiver role in Miami, Waddle maintained high efficiency (2.19 yards per route run last year). Harmon ranks him as a top-12 wide receiver, noting that Denver's strong offensive line and Bo Nix's willingness to test the deep field will benefit him.

Matt Harmon praises Jordan Tyson's 89th percentile success rate vs zone coverage, noting it is one of the best marks since 2021. While Tyson needs work on release moves against press, his landing spot in New Orleans is ideal for his skill set as a zone-beater in Kellen Moore's motion-heavy offense.

Matt Harmon is a big fan of Josh Downs, comparing his skill set to Tyler Lockett rather than a slot-only receiver. Harmon believes Downs has the ability to beat press-man coverage and should be on the field consistently for the Colts, provided he stays healthy.

Matt Harmon expects Ladd McConkey to thrive in his second year, noting that his underlying separation data remained consistent despite a difficult rookie season. With Keenan Allen gone, McConkey is expected to inherit the intermediate layup routes. Harmon highlights that McConkey is a strong separator who excels on downfield breaking routes. The primary concern remains whether his body can handle a high-volume workload of 140+ targets given his injury history.

Harmon views Luther Burden as an ascending player in a top-tier offense, citing impressive rookie metrics (71% success vs. man, 80.4% vs. zone) and a role that fits him better than it did DJ Moore.

Matt Harmon acknowledges that Marvin Harrison Jr. has been disappointing relative to his draft capital, but argues he is not as bad as the internet narrative suggests. He believes Harrison is a solid receiver who was a poor fit for his former quarterback's style, and that he could be a 'supersized DeVonta Smith' or Chris Olave type in the current Cardinals offense.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is projected ahead of Michael Wilson because he earned targets at a significantly higher rate when both were on the field together, according to Harmon.

Matt Harmon is not overly impressed by Matthew Golden's rookie season, noting poor success rates against both man and zone coverage. However, he believes Golden makes sense as the Packers' X receiver because he is a vertical route runner, which allows Christian Watson to play off-ball where he is more effective.

Matt Harmon considers Michael Wilson a legit good player who proved he could beat press-man coverage as an X receiver. Harmon believes the Cardinals' current offensive system will fit Wilson well, allowing him to be a productive part of the passing game alongside Marvin Harrison Jr.

Matt Harmon identifies Michael Wilson as a legit good player, though he notes that the Cardinals' difficult schedule might impact the team's passing volume under the new staff, making projections harder.

Matt Harmon views Mike Evans as a buy at his Yahoo ADP of 60, noting he still plays at a high level when healthy. While acknowledging the injury risk (the 'substation' narrative), Harmon argues Evans fits the 49ers' offense well and possesses significant upside for double-digit touchdowns if he stays on the field.

Matt Harmon views Parker Washington as a good player who fits the 'Golden Tate' mold—a solid separator and route runner who excels in the slot. His success rate versus zone coverage increased significantly as his slot usage rose late last season. Harmon considers him a target alongside Brian Thomas Jr. for home-run potential, though he expects a messy, four-man rotation in the Jaguars' receiver room.

Matt Harmon suggests that while Quentin Johnston's rookie season was statistically poor (first percentile success rate vs. man/press), he was set up to fail in a vertical X-receiver role. Harmon compares his potential outlook to Corey Davis's final year in Tennessee, where he could be a productive secondary option in a run-heavy, play-action-based offense. Harmon believes Johnston has the WR2 job on the Chargers mostly locked down.

Matt Harmon and the hosts agree that Quentin Johnston's current ADP in the 60s is egregious. While he is better than his rookie season, Harmon notes that being better than the worst rookie season of all time does not make him a good player. A Yahoo ADP of 110 is considered much more palatable for taking a shot on him.

Matt Harmon notes that Travis Hunter is expected to play more X receiver this year with a more vertical route tree. While he is still learning the nuances of zone coverage, his ability to play receiver—estimated at 20-30% of routes—will likely eat into the target shares of other Jaguars receivers.

Matt Harmon notes that Trey Harris was used in a versatile role at Ole Miss, including slot work and blocking, which differs from his initial projection as a vertical X-receiver. Harmon believes Harris could pose an interesting challenge to Quentin Johnston for the WR2 role in the Chargers' offense, though Johnston currently holds the edge.

Matt Harmon highlights Trey Harris as a strong value compared to Quentin Johnston, noting a massive gap in their respective ADPs (Harris at 180 vs. Johnston in the 60s) despite the potential for Harris to have a meaningful role in year two.