PodcastFrom Establish The Run
Levitan's Solo Pod: Rants on Survivor, Football Field Hysteria, Testosterone, More (Episode 1027)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
32 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 28, 2026
Published
Mon, September 28, 2026
13
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersAnthony RichardsonGarrett WilsonGeorge KittleIsaiah WilliamsJayden ReedJuwan JohnsonKenyon SadiqParker WashingtonTerrance FergusonTrey McBrideZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Anthony Richardson
NegativeDepth Chart20:59
Anthony Richardson (referred to as Penix in the transcript) was back for the Falcons in week three, which the source notes as a known problem with the Packers that made them a contrarian Survivor pick; the source acknowledges this factor but still played the Packers as a contrarian leverage play.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection5:11
Brock Bowers returned from a PCL injury and subsequent knee surgery in week three at $6,600 with only 1% projected ownership; the source argues that playing injured players before seeing them is valuable in tournaments because they are often healthiest upon return and massively under-owned due to field fear of limitations or aggravation; Bowers was reportedly very close to playing in week two and was held out only for precaution.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout10:32
Brock Bowers' return from injury in week three represented an information-edge opportunity; the source emphasizes that these injury-return spots with massive under-ownership are where analytical advantage should be won, contrasting with general field fear of playing returning injured players.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveValue0:20
Garrett Wilson was the source's number one wide receiver in salary-adjusted value for week three DFS; he was only 69% owned in the $25 single-entry double-up on DraftKings despite being a lock for cash games given the Jets-Lions matchup and the absence of A.D. Mitchell, Omar Cooper, and Mason Taylor.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
PositiveProjection7:00
George Kittle is cited as a viable downboard tight end option in 2026 DFS; the source notes that even Kittle looks rejuvenated this season, making tight end more attractive relative to struggling wide receivers.
Insight pageIsaiah Williams
NegativeUsage1:04
Isaiah Williams ran 42 routes on 44 Geno Smith dropbacks in week three but performed poorly in DFS cash games; the source played him despite the poor performance, noting the high route volume.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeInjury20:17
Jaden Reed was out for the Packers in week three, contributing to the source's reasoning for playing the Packers as a contrarian Survivor pick; the absence of Reed was cited as one of several reasons to fade the Packers in traditional analysis.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveProjection7:00
Juwan Johnson is cited as an example of a downboard tight end who has been viable in DFS in 2026; the source notes that the poor state of the wide receiver position has made double tight end lineups more intriguing than in past years.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveRole2:08
Kenyon Sadiq, described as one of the best athletes ever to step on an NFL field at tight end, was drafted 16th overall but missed the entire offseason; despite this, he had a really good role in week one, and the intention to get him the ball was evident through the first two weeks before injuries hit the Jets; the source regrets not playing him in week three DFS at $3,500 despite recognizing his value, instead opting for Arande Gadsden.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveProjection7:32
Parker Washington was a great DFS play in week three; the source notes that while many wide receivers are struggling, Parker Washington and Garrett Wilson were certainly great plays that week.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveProjection7:00
Terrence Ferguson is cited as a viable downboard tight end option in 2026 DFS before his injury; the source notes that the poor state of the wide receiver position has made double tight end lineups more intriguing than in past years.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection5:59
Trey McBride is identified as one of the elite tight ends this season alongside Brock Bowers; the source notes that tight end has been a deep position in 2026 and that McBride at $6K is a more attractive play than many $6K wide receivers on a week-to-week basis.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeUsage10:03
Zay Flowers had his routes limited significantly coming off a hamstring injury, which the source distinguishes from the Brock Bowers situation as a different type of injury concern.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1027 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, and we are coming off of a Jets kind of week.
0:13Yes, that's right. The key to the week three DFS slate was indeed the New York Jets.
0:20And this wasn't that hard to see coming. Garrett Wilson was our number one wide receiver in salary adjusted value.
0:27Once A.D. Mitchell was ruled out, the Jets Lions game was on top of our GPP game scores metric on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
0:36Intuitively, you know, we know how games can get wild when you play in Detroit against that elite offense and that terrible defense.
0:45And then the Jets were super concentrated, you know, not only was A.D.
0:50Mitchell out, Omar Cooper was out, Mason Taylor was out as well.
0:54And so for cash, obviously, Garrett Wilson should have been a lock, but he was only 69% owned in the giant $25 single entry double up on DraftKings.
1:04I also played Isaiah Williams in cash. He performed horribly, but he ran 42 routes on 44 Geno Smith dropbacks.
1:12Okay, you know, whatever. For tournaments, though, the mistake that I made was simply playing the golf side of this game at
1:20quarterback and eating an extra $1,400 in salary that I didn't need to if I was just more willing to play Geno.
1:28And also, I think another mistake, I just, I wasn't excited enough about Kenyon Sadiq because I was so caught up in
1:36him being $3,500 instead of $2,900 like I wanted.
1:40And that's actually frustrating on the Sadiq thing because it was so obvious in hindsight.
1:45You know, one of the best athletes ever to step on an NFL field at the tight end position, goes 16th overall in the draft.
1:55He missed literally the entire offseason, yet still had a really good role in week one.
2:01I thought that was really notable. The intention to get him the ball was there through the first two weeks, and then all the injuries hit.
2:10They're playing the Lions. The field, the DFS field is playing dad at tight end.
2:16They're playing dad runners. I mean, they're playing Don Schultz and Kelsey and Andrews and Hunter Henry.
2:22So on my main GPP team on DraftKings, I played Arande Gadsden, not Kenyon Sadiq.
2:28Probably bad, you know, at a minimum tilting, but also probably bad.
2:32Anyways, the Geno doubles, Geno Smith doubles to Wilson and Sadiq with Gibbs on the other side of that was obviously the nuts.
2:41And I should have gotten there. You know, I ended up airballing on my three tournament teams this week and I deserved it.
2:49As for cash in week three, I didn't think it was a very interesting week.
2:55You can read the article on the site for details on some of the decisions.
3:01You know, big one that went in my favor was Shuck over Kyler.
3:05And then really this week, just letting people punt, you know, as I said, Garrett Wilson was 69% in the big $25 double up on DraftKings.
3:15Jameer Gibbs was less than that. Jameer Gibbs was 67%.
3:19I don't in that double up. I legit don't understand how that's possible.
3:24And Titans defense was 72%. You know, I think people spent a little bit, too many people spent a little bit too much money on defense.
3:33But anyways, that's what really cash is about. You know, try to get good action and then let them Jeff Fiegel's it into us.
3:42I just try to play solid. No FPS, you know, fancy play syndrome.
3:47Just call for the fair catch, you know, and move on.
3:51Two other DFS points I wanted to note. So far this year, it has been a very deep season for tight ends.
3:59Obviously, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are the nuts.
4:03But downboard tight ends have been very viable. And double tight end has been more intriguing to me than in the past.
4:11Not because I think tight ends are like some great bet all of a sudden, but because wide receivers often so, so bad.
4:20And so you get these tight ends like Juwan Johnson, George Kittle, Don Kincaid, Schultz when Nico and Jaden Higgins are out, Sadiq, Terrence Ferguson before his injury.
4:30Even Kelsey looks rejuvenated. My point is that whereas I've been hesitant to play tight end and flex before, the state of
4:38the wide receiver position has made it more viable, I think.
4:42And like, I feel much better about a 6K McBride or Bowers than I do about a lot of the 6K wide receivers on a week-to-week basis.
4:52Not all of them, you know, Parker Washington and Garrett Wilson were certainly great plays this week, I thought.
4:59But yeah, I mean, it's just something to think about, I think.
5:04The other point that I wanted to make off of week 3 in DFS was the Brock Bowers game.
5:11I know he was a tough click. I mean, dude had the PCL, then the surprise knee injury just a few weeks ago, and surgery.
5:20I did not click Brock Bowers here on this slate.
5:24But man, just a reminder that playing it before you see it is just so valuable in tournaments for two big reasons, I think.
5:33First, when guys first get back from injury, you could argue this is actually the healthiest they'll be at any point going forward.
5:41And second, these guys in their first game back from injury, they're almost always massively under-owned because the field is afraid to play.
5:50A guy who could be limited, he could have lingering issues, he could aggravate.
5:55And I get sucked into that line of thinking too.
5:59I just don't think it's the right line of thinking.
6:03Yeah, they limited Zay Flowers' routes a ton off of the hamstring.
6:07I think that's a little bit different than Bowers.
6:11He was reportedly very, very close to playing in week 2.
6:15They just held him out to be safe. And so he comes in at 6,600.
6:201% we had projected ownership on Brock Bowers against the Saints.
6:24Obviously, this is really easy to say in hindsight.
6:28But these are the spots that I need to be winning on.
6:32The info-related spots. Yes, I think there's nuance between the Flowers injury and the Bowers spot.
6:38But that nuance, I think, is where my edge should be.
6:42So yeah, just wanted to note that. All right, a few other things before I get to listener questions.
6:49First, I want to just mention this FanDuel site situation.
6:53So FanDuel was buggy again close to lock in week 3.
6:57Not ideal. I've been trying not to pile on FanDuel.
7:01I've been trying to stick up for FanDuel really for three reasons.
7:05First, they've actually been somewhat trying in DFS. You know, giving free rolls.
7:10Doing some advertising. A couple small UX improvements. Second, I actually enjoy the setup on FanDuel.
7:16It's looser, which I like. And I think people make some big mistakes trying to carry over the DraftKings format to there.
7:24Like playing way too thin of plays, etc. And lastly, most importantly, the biggest reason that I try not to pile on
7:32FanDuel is I'm just petrified they're going to throw in the towel on DFS.
7:38Similar to what I talked about on the solo pod a week or two ago with relation to Underdog.
7:45DFS Operator is an infinitely better business than Best Ball Operator.
7:49But DFS Operator still is not a great business relative to what FanDuel or the parent company Flutter is doing overall.
7:57I'm sure there is some suit somewhere right now in some boardroom saying, Why the hell are we even bothering with DFS?
8:05All people do is bitch at us. Our dev team is distracted.
8:09They're putting a ton of effort in patches and things are still breaking.
8:14They're putting all this effort into something that represents a tiny portion of our profits and it's still breaking.
8:21Let's just bag it. And if that ever happened, that would be a really, really, really bad turn of events for the DFS ecosystem, I think.
8:31DraftKings is so great with DFS. They deserve so much credit.
8:35I'm forever indebted to them. Yes, we're paying rake.
8:38But they need real competition. And customers need different formats, choices, setups.
8:43So yes, my biggest fear is that we get thousands of virgins like me bitching at FanDuel so hard that they bag DFS.
8:51Now that said, if anyone at FanDuel is listening, if the site isn't functional on Sundays around lock, it's a huge problem.
9:00Like I don't want to pile on, but I guess I'm just saying I'm just praying that this gets cleaned up.
9:07And I think it will. I mean, FanDuel's been doing this a long time.
9:13Okay, next thing that I wanted to hit on is all this Survivor stuff.
9:18So if you go back to episode 1018, I talked about why we were going hard at Survivor this year in terms
9:26of both playing it ourselves and doing content inside of the NFL in-season product.
9:31One of the reasons I discussed on that pod about why we were going so hard at Survivor this year was because
9:39we felt like it was early in the learning curve for everyone, including us.
9:45You know, early in the learning curve for everyone, certainly including us.
9:49But if I've learned anything over the last 25 years, it's that being early is often more important than being great.
9:57You know, early at poker, PrintFest. Early at DFS, PrintFest.
10:01Early at crypto, PrintFest. Early at prediction markets, PrintFest.
10:04And so now that Survivor is having its boom here in 2026, thanks in large part to the people at Circa and now the people at Splash.
10:14Now that Survivor is booming. Well, you know, hopefully a PrintFest to be early here too.
10:20So anyways, there was some, you know, please go back and listen to episode 1018 for more.
10:26But anyways, there was some quote-unquote controversy. And believe me, I use that term very loosely.
10:32There was some quote-unquote controversy on Twitter after the Packers game on Thursday night.
10:38The one that they lost to the Falcons. And nothing has made me more confident than that controversy and all the rhetoric around it.
10:46I'm now even more confident that we made the right call in going hard at the Splash 1K contest.
10:54One with 21 million guaranteed. Much like the early days of DFS.
10:58Much like early poker tournaments. A huge part of the Survivor field does not understand the game that they are playing.
11:06They think they are playing a, I can pick winners.
11:10Or, I can beat the money line. Or, I know ball game.
11:14When in fact, that's not the game they are playing.
11:18They are playing, we are playing a game theory contest disguised as a ball knowing game.
11:24You know, I don't want to bore you with the details about this controversy or whatever.
11:30But, as quickly as I can. And by the way, the numbers could be slightly off here as I'm not fully in the weeds.
11:39But, what happened was, we projected the Packers to be 8% owned in the Splash contest.
11:45They came in more like 5%. So, we screwed that up by 3 points.
11:50You know, not ideal. But, been really happy with our projected ownership accuracy overall.
11:55For both Splash and Circa, you know, certainly not perfect.
11:59But, anyway. We played 10% of our remaining entries on the Packers.
12:03Again, we had them projected for 8%. They came in at 5%.
12:08We played 10% of our remaining entries on the Packers.
12:11Obviously, we knew that was contrarian. Obviously, we understood the problems with the Packers.
12:17You know, we've talked about this a ton. Terrible offensive line.
12:21No Jaden Reed. No Micah Parsons. There are so many reasons to do contrarian things in Survivor.
12:27Creating unique paths. Differentiation across a portfolio. And, really, simple leverage.
12:31Like, we are so early in Survivor that the general public, it seems like they are 100% convinced that the Chiefs, 1,000%, are never losing to the Dolphins.
12:42Or, the Niners are never losing to the Cardinals.
12:45It's impossible, Adam. It's impossible. It's not. Things that are 2%, 5%, 10%, 12%, they happen.
12:51And then, they're equally as confident that Packers were a terrible pick.
12:55They're terrible. It's a short week. No offensive line.
12:59Penix is back. Yeah, we know. They closed as a 4.5 point favorite at home.
13:04Obviously, we know the Chiefs are more likely to win.
13:08It should be obvious we are playing a game.
13:11And, much like DFS, leverage is arguably the most important part of the game.
13:17Because, again, tail outcomes do hit. The 1%ers do hit.
13:20The 2%ers do hit. That's where a lot of the money is in all these games.
13:26You don't win $21 million by just taking the obvious plays.
13:30So, for an extreme example, it's the same thing with Showdown.
13:34Like, all these people brag when they chop a showdown.
13:38Like, the real money is in finding the tail outcomes.
13:42So, anyways. Back to Survivor. For an extreme example, let's say there were 100 people left in your Survivor contest.
13:49You knew for a fact 99 of them were taking the Chiefs against the Dolphins as a 10-point favorite.
13:56Your options are take the Chiefs, move on to next week with everyone else, or take a team that is a 3-point dog.
14:05What should you do? I think everybody knows what to do there, right?
14:10It doesn't matter about ball. It doesn't matter about the Chiefs or the Dolphins or what you think.
14:17It's a game-through exercise. But people don't care, which is why Survivor is such a great spot.
14:23People think they actually know better than the money lines on NFL games.
14:28Which is a very, very, very NFL money lines at post.
14:32And that's when all the Survivor stuff happens at post.
14:35It's a very, very difficult market to beat. Not impossible to beat.
14:40But I promise that 99% of people, 99.9% of people, are not beating NFL sides over a big sample against penny closing numbers.
14:49No one want to hear that, though. They will respond to this podcast saying, You don't get it, Adam.
14:56The Packers suck and the Chiefs were never losing to the Dolphins.
15:00If you actually think you know better, if you actually think that you can beat NFL lines, NFL closing lines, then 21 million in Survivor is nothing.
15:10You know the Packers have no chance? You can get seven figures on that easily these days.
15:16Same with the Chiefs never losing. You want to go, you can bet 21 million.
15:22Like, the biggest losers, like actual money losers in the history of DFS, the history of sports gambling, it's all rich people who think they can pick winners.
15:32So, these big prize pools in Survivor are now attracting some very sophisticated people and groups.
15:38It reminds me of DFS. You know, I think last year, like the biggest winners in Survivor were like, Galen Hall and Flup, you know, Chris.
15:48You know, like, I promise you those guys aren't thinking about ball.
15:53It reminds me of DFS. Like, at first in DFS.
15:56I'm talking about 2012 to 2014. People were winning huge in those very, very, very early days of DFS by literally just knowing ball.
16:05Like, who's hurt? Who isn't? Who has a good defense?
16:09Who doesn't? Then the stakes got massive in DFS.
16:12A ton of smart people flood in. And the ball knowing part got smaller and smaller.
16:18And it's often a game theory competition. And that is what we will see in Survivor as well.
16:25But for now, enjoy the EV. You know, we'll be playing to try to actually win the contest, which is far different
16:33than playing to survive as long as possible. We'll almost certainly fuck up.
16:38We'll almost certainly be out. We'll make mistakes. We'll get stuff wrong.
16:42We'll look stupid. That's all part of it. And by the way, what is not part of it is us giving out picks.
16:51Like, this is why I don't debate or use the reply button on Twitter.
16:56There is no room for nuance. And negativity reigns supreme.
17:00We have ownership projections. We have a show. We have an article by Reynolds.
17:05We're not giving out picks. We didn't give out the Packers.
17:09I'm not even sure what the quote-unquote controversy was.
17:13And by the way, we know this is our first year taking Survivor seriously.
17:18It's part of the NFL in-season product along with a zillion other things.
17:23No one had to pay anything extra for it.
17:26You can check out our projected ownership for Splash and for Circa if you want.
17:32If not, then don't. You know? I just, I can't fucking take any more whining from society at large.
17:39It's just so out of control. And by the way, I do want to say, like, for all the people that don't
17:47want it to turn into a game theory contest, don't want our fantasy football and our Survivor and everything to turn into
17:55a game theory contest, I don't disagree, man. Like, I want to just pick winners also.
18:01But it's more fun. And it's more fun to talk about.
18:05And it's more fun in all ways. But I'm here to win.
18:10You know? And that's, like, I guess the difference between a lot of stuff that goes on.
18:16You know? Like, sometimes it's not that fun to actually try to win.
18:21And, you know, yeah. I guess I should say, in terms of results so far, for anyone who cares, after week two,
18:29we were smashing the field in terms of entries left versus the field.
18:34Um, we had a bad week three, and now we are even with the field again in terms of our percent of
18:42our entries alive versus percent of total entries still alive.
18:46So, we're about even with the field right now.
18:49Um, good luck to us. Oh, last thing. I got to get off my chest before listening to questions.
18:56Speaking of whining, we live in a social media age.
19:00It's just so ubiquitous and overwhelming in everything that goes on.
19:04And while I do think this is the greatest time in the history of mankind to be alive, maybe the 80s and 90s were better.
19:13God, because there was no social media. I love the 80s and 90s.
19:18But anyways, I digress. While it is certainly a great time to be alive, social media is a massive stain.
19:26And one of the reasons is that no one or most people are not actually trying to find the truth.
19:33Everyone is trying to find clicks and likes. And so, you get a situation like the field in Rio.
19:40And you would think leading up to this Ravens-Cowboys game that they're playing on fucking Pluto.
19:46The field, Adam. The field. Oh, my God. The field.
19:50We can't play anyone in this game. There's holes.
19:53I mean, the media is just relentless all week about the field in Rio.
19:58Guess what? Total never moved. It was 53 all week.
20:02The game went off fine. Coaches and players said no issue.
20:06It was an insane game. 65 points scored. I talked on last-minute livestream about this exact thing.
20:13I thought the game would be under-owned because people were so ridiculously scared by all of the hysteria and FUD over the field.
20:21So, yeah. I mean, I played that game a bunch in tournament.
20:26You know, it didn't hit. But felt good about it.
20:29It's just a reminder, in my opinion, that the hysterics are so ridiculous.
20:34Like, of course, you do not get clicks by saying, nah, field will be fine.
20:40You get clicks by talking crazy FUD. You know, people on social media are just dying to latch on to any negativity on any subject under the sun.
20:50The people who are actually sharp don't get caught up in media hysterics.
20:55Like, the total never moved. I think there's a lesson there.
20:59You know, not just for sports. Reminder, this free show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction
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22:29All right. Enough is enough. It is time for everyone's favorite portion of the program.
22:35Listen to your questions. Bruce and Luke, hit the theme music.
22:39All right. Appreciate the questions from everyone. Going to do three today.
22:43We'll almost certainly ask for questions on Twitter for next week's show on Thursday or Friday.
22:49So yeah, just going to do three here today.
22:53Question one from Anonymous. He says, I'm 38 years old and have been with my girlfriend for five years.
23:00She's been pushing me to take testosterone because my sex drive isn't as high as hers.
23:06I love her and I'm very attracted to her, but I'll admit, I no longer feel the need to smash like I did in my teens and 20s.
23:16I'm worried, though, that testosterone could mess with my psyche and my analytical side and negatively affect my DFS results.
23:24Any thoughts? So actually, the person who submitted this used his real name.
23:28I decided to call him anonymous here because you would literally have to waterboard this information out of me.
23:35And I can tell this guy's a good dude.
23:39I like him. He's sharp. Real name would have been a bad idea just on a public embarrassment level.
23:46So I'm saving him from his self. As for the question, my God, man.
23:51I mean, I've got 100 thoughts here, but I'll keep it to just a few.
23:57First, and I think most obviously, if you're only 38, you're not even married yet, and you're not that excited about having
24:05the sex with this girl, it's going to be a long and I suspect unhappy life.
24:11Like, I know I said a couple weeks ago that I should not be influencing people on big life decisions, and I didn't mean that.
24:20But, anonymous, I can't help myself here. I need to step in.
24:25Second, if you do not want to do inhumane things to her now, I fear you're going to be turbo bored, and
24:33you'll be miserable by the time you're 50, as will she.
24:37So just keep that in mind. Second, you mentioned her sex drive is very high.
24:42I need to interview this poor woman. Like, she is so excited by watching you sim 500 lineups and construct the perfect
24:51combination of chalk and contrarian players that she has to have you.
24:55You know, not my experience personally, but okay, I'd like to hear from her.
25:00And lastly, yeah, on testosterone. So it is getting incredibly popular among dudes my age.
25:06I just turned 44. It's around this time dudes start to see a real decrease in free testosterone and total testosterone.
25:14I know so many people doing the TRT injections.
25:17And yeah, it seems to work for a lot of people.
25:21I have personally never tried it. My T levels are fine.
25:25You know, not great, but fine. You know, shout out to me.
25:30I'm generally against injecting anything into my body unless I really need it.
25:35But yeah, I'd be lying if I hadn't thought about taking TRT every time like I lose a physical challenge bet or
25:43I lose a tennis match or I play terrible in basketball for the 20th straight time.
25:49I think to myself, shit, man, I should really get on this stuff if I'm going to compete at this age.
25:57And yeah, I mean, as far as I can tell, doing TRT is not all that different from taking steroids.
26:04And I'd love to also put on some size, put on some mass, you know, Cody Main style.
26:11In the end, though, none of my issues have risen to the level where I'm ready to go down this path.
26:19But, Anonymous, if it ever got to a point where I did not want to lay wood, I would be exploring TRT pretty hard, you know.
26:28Side effects be damned. Question two from Pocket Fletch.
26:32She says, with you being such a big health guy, I'm surprised you smoke weed.
26:37I myself enjoy a nice smoke before bed, but I find myself more refreshed in the mornings on days where I didn't smoke the night before.
26:47Thanks. Yeah, good point, Pocket Fletch. I should clarify.
26:50I used to smoke a lot of actual weed, like, and I would smoke out of everything, you know, bowls, bongs, bubblers, blunts, apples, bathtubs, whatever.
27:00But probably about 10 years ago, I stopped and switched to, you know, like 95% gummies.
27:06And I only take them very late at night.
27:09Now, let me be clear. I still enjoy smoking actual weed better.
27:14I don't get much social interaction, but sitting in a car or at a fire pit with your boys passing around a J, I mean, that's living.
27:24You know, smoking with your wife while having a glass of wine, that's living.
27:29However, it's obvious that smoking is very, very bad for you, very, very dangerous.
27:34And given health is my number one priority by a long shot, I stopped smoking actual weed like 10 years ago.
27:42Not 100% stopped. Like, I'd say probably around 95% of my THC consumption now is gummies at, you know, 10 p.m.
27:50or later. Which is fine, you know, would I prefer to do a J on the deck while blasting the Allman Brothers
27:58and petting Jerry and staring at the sunset? Yes.
28:01But this is called being an adult pocket fletch, you know.
28:05We eat gummies and we go to sleep. All right, question three, last question we're going to do today comes from Numbers Market.
28:14It says, in 10 years, which of these will be the most popular form of gambling?
28:20Online sports books, prediction markets, DFS, or online casinos?
28:23God, I hate this question because I hate my answer.
28:27But I have a journalistic duty here on the solo pod to always tell the truth.
28:33And so my honest answer is that in 10 years, online sports books will be the most popular.
28:40And I hope I'm wrong. And I hope I'm wrong because I don't think it's right that the online sports book model is simply only losers are allowed.
28:50If you're just fired from the gut, thinking you know ball, getting wrecked, yes, come bet whatever you want at the online sports book.
28:59But if you show even a hint of trying to get it in good, you're limited to pennies.
29:06And I hate that. And I don't want to lump every book in there.
29:11You know, Circa, I know for a fact, will not limit you.
29:15But the truth is that people listening to this, people on ETR, we are in a bubble.
29:22We are in the one, maybe 2% of people who actually care that you're not allowed to be a winner at almost all online sports books.
29:3198, 99% of people, they care. They don't even know that people are getting limited.
29:37They care about free bets and bonuses and voids on injuries and Portnoy's pre-made parlay.
29:43And I don't even blame them. I totally get it.
29:46You know, they're trying to have a good time.
29:50And shit, I want some free bets and some bonuses also.
29:54Now, how can prediction markets make a move there on sports books long term?
29:59I'm talking 10 years out. Well, first, win the regulatory battle that's going on right now.
30:05Clearly, that's the most important thing. But second, I feel like they need to be able to match those kind of sports book experiences.
30:14Voids on injuries. Bonuses. Free bets. Like, somehow match that.
30:18You know, now that I'm thinking about it, online casinos might actually be the right answer.
30:24I just know nothing about online casinos. Maybe I'm biased.
30:27You know, maybe I'm naive. But I see casino games like online slots, online roulette.
30:33I just see that way different than playing poker or DFS online.
30:37One of them, you know, slots and roulette. You're literally drawing dead to win long term.
30:43The other games, the peer-to-peer games like poker or DFS, of course, you can be plus EV.
30:50You're going to be massively negative EV in roulette and slots.
30:54So I'm hopeful that people aren't playing a lot of buy casino, though.
30:59I'm sure they are. But anyway, I think the dream for sports, or at least my dream for sports, would be the prediction market model.
31:08Not kicking out winners. There's actual people on the other side.
31:12You can take yes. You can take no. You can bet under or over.
31:17There's not one-way markets. There's tons of liquidity, even on smaller markets like props.
31:22There's the best prices for customers, like a huge percentage of the time.
31:27Combine that with the sports book perks and treatment that people love.
31:32Maybe prediction markets will get there. You know, I don't know.
31:36All right. That is going to do it for another edition of the Solo Pod.
31:41Are we back Tuesday evening with Silva for the Team by Team show?
31:46Are we back on Wednesday with the Season Long Bros for the Rest of Season Top 150 show?
31:53And then, of course, for anyone with in-season product, Friday night, establish the show.
31:58Saturday morning, establish the million. Sunday morning, last-minute live stream.
32:02For producer Luke. For Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world.
32:06I am Adam. Good luck, everybody. Bye-bye.