0:00Hello and welcome to Episode 1033 of the official EstablishTheRun.com podcast.
0:04My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR and we are coming off of a cash is still alive kind of week.
0:14Yes, that's right. I thought the best cash team in week five was so clear and obvious that I went out of
0:22my way not to play double ups. I was just expecting to chop the cash line so often that I went out
0:29of my way to play double ups. And it turned out that was dumb because people remain addicted to FPS, aka fancy
0:37play syndrome, or maybe they're just terrible. You know, I don't really know.
0:42But the bottom line is we had Jameer Gibbs with the highest projection in the history of ETR plus 7.0 salary adjusted
0:50value 2.5 clear of anyone else on the slate, which is absurd by the way.
0:55And Gibbs was really easy to fit given the slate context and Gibbs was still just 61% owned in the giant $25 single entry double up.
1:04So, anyways, a long time ago, I started calling weeks like this past one a prove it week in cash.
1:11I thought maybe that era was over, but I guess not.
1:15If you read the cash line of review on the site, you saw I had six quote unquote musts in DK cash,
1:23Gibbs, DeAndre Swift, Trey Harris, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Gobi Brissette.
1:27But we slash I should not assume that everyone has these as musts.
1:32We must make them prove it. That's the whole idea of a prove it week.
1:37And those are my favorite weeks. I don't have any data on this, but just anecdotally, I'm not sure I've ever lost
1:45when I have five plus musts in a week for cash.
1:49So, yeah, I should have been playing bigger on this prove it week.
1:53Not smaller. Now, I did win 79.5% of my head to heads on DraftKings, you know, good, far from elite.
2:00The team that I lost to a lot was the 1v1.
2:04I played Emmanuel Wilson and other people played Braylon Allen at the exact same price.
2:10I explained why in the review article and I still like don't feel bad about it at all.
2:16You can read more in the review article about why I did it, but one point I wanted to make is that
2:24the results in a one game sample do not prove anything.
2:28But Braylon Allen had like 12 points with four minutes left in the game.
2:33The Browns are punting deep into Jets territory. Browns were winning.
2:37Would have been a throwing situation. Instead, ball goes through the Browns punters hands.
2:42They call some runs with Braylon Allen. Allows him to get the 100 yard bonus and the touchdown, which he would not
2:50have gotten if they were in some hurry up mode trying to come back and win late.
2:56So, or maybe he would have, you know, whatever.
2:59But I think it was super close pre-lock. We actually had Braylon Allen and Emmanuel Wilson with the identical projection.
3:06Even in hindsight, I think that was probably right.
3:09Oh, one more note on cash. You know, in week four, I played Garrett Wilson and Parker Washington in cash, and they were just terrible.
3:18And I talked about how bad it was playing Garrett Wilson when I had access to Puka Nakua.
3:24You can go back and listen to last week's solo pod for that if you want.
3:30I just want to note both of those guys, Garrett Wilson and Parker Washington, go off as flop lag kind of plays in week five.
3:39Just a reminder that while, yes, every slate is different.
3:42Every matchup is different. Every injury situation makes things different.
3:46But particularly at the wide receiver position, the volatility is just so off the charts on a week to week basis outside
3:54of a few guys like Puka and JSN. So, you know, and I submit to it too, but I don't want to
4:02be like, well, Garrett Wilson and Parker Washington fucked me in week four.
4:06So fuck them. You know, like that's just obviously a ridiculous, stupid thing to do.
4:12But I do think a lot of people think that way.
4:16And I'd be lying if I said it didn't seep into my play, you know, at some times also.
4:22So that's why it's good to have like a data driven approach.
4:27You know, we again had really big projections on Parker Washington and Garrett Wilson there in week five.
4:33Tournaments. So I actually had one of the best results I've had this season.
4:38Had a little sweat in the power sweep on DraftKings, which is a three max tournament.
4:44Ended up finishing 29th out of like 1600 people.
4:47I know this is going to sound incredibly biased, but I have to give a shout out to Dink and Leone for,
4:55you know, always established a million is so good, but was especially good.
4:59I thought this past Saturday, it was such a tough slate.
5:03I thought for tournaments because the best plays were so strong and they were mostly in Arizona, Detroit.
5:10And it was just so obvious. Like it's kind of tough to explain unless you're in it, but it was just a really hard and unique slate.
5:19I thought for tournaments and to figure out strategies for the specific slate.
5:24It's not an easy exercise. And those guys are just so gifted at developing strategies that make sense and conveying it to mid curve IQ people like me.
5:34So anyway, the point that they made on ETM on Saturday was about playing Lions Cardinals in a smart way.
5:41Obviously, like that's what I wanted to do. Also coming in the one idea they had that resonated with me.
5:48Was not playing the Brissette double, just playing the alpha stack, the single stack.
5:53In other words, everyone was playing Brissette McBride Wilson.
5:56What if just one of them goes off? Another one sucks.
6:00We played Arizona Detroit or we played Arizona at least.
6:04And we gained on the field in that way.
6:07And then the other note that they had was, well, what if no one on Detroit is really what you need?
6:14Everyone's going to have a bring back. Maybe we don't.
6:18So I played three tournament teams. The one that did well was Brissette McBride skinny with no Lions.
6:24And so I know what you're thinking. You know, you just talked about Jameer Gibbs, this way too cheap, absurd projection.
6:32This was another thing that they talked about on ETM.
6:35Like work backwards. When we look back at the slate, what kind of unique teams could win?
6:41Well, I really liked the running back position this past week.
6:45I thought there were a ton of good GPP plays that were three to four thousand less than Gibbs.
6:52Emmanuel Wilson, Braylon Allen, Jalen Warren, Quinchon Junkins, Aaron Jones, Chase Brown.
6:56What if I can find a couple of those guys to get 20 to 30 and then use the extra money that
7:04I saved by not playing Gibbs to try to beat Gibbs at wide receiver?
7:09You know, I thought that made sense. The key, of course, is finding mid-price wide receivers who can actually beat Gibbs.
7:16Easier said than done. So for this team, I started Brissette McBride.
7:21Then I got my two favorite running backs for tournaments in there, Emmanuel Wilson and Jalen Warren.
7:27And then it came down to which wide receivers can I fit that I think can beat Gibbs.
7:33First one was Justin Jefferson. You know, no Jordan Addison.
7:37Jefferson's back from the ankle. He's just 7,300 against an awful Saints defense in a dome.
7:42I know I mentioned it a ton last week, but Justin Jefferson ran two routes in his last game with Kyler.
7:50Caught two balls for 32 yards. Can Justin Jefferson elevate Kyler?
7:54Can he beat Gibbs in some scenarios? Of course.
7:57Next one was Malik Neighbors. You know, I know there's weather stuff.
8:01I just want to be on the opposite side of the field on weather stuff.
8:07I tweeted about the weather a couple times on Sunday morning.
8:10Talked about it on last minute live stream. The Jets weather looked tough, like it was going to rain the whole game.
8:18The Commander's weather down in Maryland for the Giants game?
8:22Maybe some light rain in the first half. Wins weren't that strong.
8:26At 6,300, neighbors somewhat healthy against one of the NFL's worst secondaries.
8:30Can he beat Gibbs? You know, definitely. And then last wide receiver that I got in there from the mid-range was Christian Watson.
8:39You know, this goes back to the preseason. I believe, if I recall correctly, Watson was my perfect pick.
8:45You know, I do that perfect pick article for season long.
8:49I think Watson was my perfect pick in round six in that article.
8:54You know, facing the Bears defense at 6,400. Can he pop off for a huge ceiling?
8:59Of course. You know, I always love Christian Watson.
9:03And like, all he's done is print since solving his hamstring injuries.
9:07So, yeah. I didn't win the tournament because I played Roman Wilson instead of something like a Pop Douglas.
9:14And I also had Titans defense in there, which I regretted.
9:18I didn't want to have it, but I also didn't want to get off these wide receivers.
9:24So, it was tough. But yeah, I was moderately happy with the team.
9:28And really, I just wanted to talk about it because I thought it was an interesting tournament week, like being thoughtful about
9:36high-level strategy for the slate and then wrapping your head around that.
9:40And then after that, getting in some micro guys that make sense for that strategy.
9:46It's fun to me. Oh, last thing on tournaments.
9:49I know I mention this every year, but late news, just a reminder, is always going to be more valuable than early news when it comes to ownership.
9:59Rico Dowdle was questionable. People didn't know if he was going to play.
10:03If they had ruled out Rico Dowdle on, say, Thursday or Friday, Jalen Warren's probably, I don't know, 40 or 50% owned.
10:11He was 22% in this tournament. And the other thing on neighbors and tournaments, I mean, people are just always afraid to play the weather spots.
10:21I get it. In cash, I really try to look at weather closely to be sure.
10:26For tournaments, though, neighbors at 6,300, you know, 3% owned because of the weather, at least in part, against the commanders with a chucker like Jameis, that quarterback.
10:36I mean, that's always going to be good. I don't care if the game is being played in an earthquake.
10:43Like, neighbors at 3% with Jameis against the commanders.
10:46Like, yeah, it's going to be good. I also think that one of the reasons neighbors was only 3% was due to some Sunday morning reports.
10:56There was some really weak stuff, like, Giants say that it's a Cam Scadaboo day, or Cam Scadaboo is a mutter, you
11:04know, and they go on the pregame shows and they talk about this.
11:08I've talked a ton about nuance around information this season.
11:12This is just another example. So much is media nonsense.
11:15I don't even want to call them reports. Like, takes that just don't matter.
11:20Maybe the Giants' intent is to run a ton.
11:23Maybe they told some reporter that. But football games don't go as coaches want.
11:28You know, they got behind and they had to chuck.
11:32So, again, very important skill these days is figuring out the 1% of media reports that matter versus the 99% that don't, you know, and it's hard.
11:42But there's just an insane amount of nonsense and takes and clickbait stuff out there.
11:47Reminder, this free show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets and one that is available in every U.S.
11:56state. You can go back to episode 1018 for more on my take why prediction markets make sense for people like us.
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13:14All right, let's get to everyone's favorite portion of the program.
13:18Listen to questions. Bruce and Luke, hit the theme music.
13:21All right, appreciate the questions from everyone. Going to do three more today.
13:26Question one from Sam Bowers says, What has been the best part of ETR that you could not have predicted at the beginning?
13:34Yeah, good question, Sam. I thought about this one for a bit.
13:38There are dozens of things I could say. It's been an incredible ride since 2019, and I'm so grateful for it.
13:46But the truth and the only honest answer to this question is we and I get to wake up every day and go to quote-unquote work.
13:55And our work is simply doing our best to figure out how athletes will perform in the future.
14:02I never wake up and I'm like, man, shit, I got to go to work today.
14:07And that's obviously not the case for millions, probably hundreds of millions of people around the world who are not excited.
14:15They wake up and they're like, shit, I got to go to work today.
14:20I really never feel like that. So, yeah. It's amazing that we've grown a ton from 2019 when we had just four full-timers.
14:28It's amazing we've been able to reward a ton of people with well-earned jobs that I think are good jobs.
14:35You know, they can support their family. That's been insane and unexpected.
14:39We've had inbound interest in our stuff from some massive people and organizations that's been unexpected and humbling.
14:46But really, the truth is that even if I was doing TPS reports all day, this peer-to-peer fantasy stuff for actual money,
14:53like that is what I'd be doing in my spare time anyways.
14:58The fact that we get to do it for work is always going to be the best part of this.
15:05Question two from Ned. He says, you mentioned your joy of coaching kids sports.
15:10I am the coach of my son's second slash third grade flag football team.
15:15We lost our first game 35-0 and the highlight of our game was getting a single first down.
15:21No one knows how to catch, much less throw.
15:24We're confined to running plays and the other team stacks the box.
15:29How do I turn this around and make it fun for the kids?
15:33Yeah, so in my head, you know, in my ego and arrogance, I think that I can make any team I coach
15:41a winner with the right messaging and setup and practices and schemes or whatever.
15:46But deep down, I know that at this age, that stuff doesn't matter.
15:51Even at sixth grade, which I'm coaching now, like the coaching matters more.
15:55But deep down, I really know it doesn't. All that matters is if you have the best kids, you know, the most talented kids.
16:04So I have grown into taking some solace in that.
16:07Hey, the guy that beat us, he's not some great coach.
16:11He's not some genius. He just happens to have the kid who's fucking six foot one in sixth grade and banging threes down our gullet.
16:20Like the gap in ability at the grade school age between kids is just so wide.
16:26The most naturally athletic and naturally talented team is going to win no matter who the coach is.
16:32Now, if you get to varsity sports in high school, I still think that's true.
16:38You know, talent's going to always be the most important thing.
16:41But the talent gap is closer. So coaching matters more.
16:45College at a big time level, if Duke plays UConn.
16:49Yes, I think coaching matters because the talent level is so close.
16:53But for Ned, who is coaching second and third grade.
16:56I mean, I have bad news, man. You're basically a babysitter.
17:00And that's OK. I still actually really love coaching that age because, frankly, I feel like I'm doing something positive for these kids' lives.
17:09Like if no one steps up to babysit slash coach them, maybe they don't play.
17:14And that's a shame because I strongly believe playing team sports is a great, great thing long term for the kids.
17:22And also at that age, they're literally just learning how to compete in a classy way, how to respect their teammates and coaches and opponents.
17:31I mean, maybe it's all in my head, but I do feel like us as coaches are making a long term difference in their life.
17:39I know for me, I can still remember my basketball coaches from, you know, my dad, all the way to playing super
17:47serious stuff, you know, in middle school, high school.
17:50I remember all my coaches. So, yeah, there's a fine line, as Ned describes, because you want the kids at second and
17:58third grade to have fun and not feel pressure to win.
18:02At the same time, it's not fun to go out and lose.
18:06Like if you're in second grade and you're playing football and you lose 35 nothing every game, you might not want to continue with football.
18:15It's just not that fun. Um, so that is one of the reasons I do think it's important to try to get
18:23the kids to play well and play the right way and win.
18:27But I don't know, man, you know, there's really only one thing I think you can do, Ned.
18:34And that is start recruiting the best kids from other teams, you know, just no other answer.
18:40I'm sorry. All right. Question three. Last question we're gonna do today comes from Jimmy.
18:45He says, I was a day one subscriber until the Air Force moved me to Italy.
18:51I can't play DFS here, but still follow the lore for the love of the game.
18:57Solo question. I'm 33 and my wife is 35.
19:00We have two kids, eight and 10. Is it plus EV or negative EV to be using a condom since we don't
19:08want them to outnumber us, but she doesn't want to get on birth control?
19:13Do I just get snipped? Well, first of all, Jimmy, thank you for your service.
19:18You know, mentioned how earlier, how grateful I am for what I do every day.
19:23Literally could not do it without Jimmy and everyone in the military out there literally sacrificing their lives to make us safe, you know.
19:32They make it so we can gamble on the internet in our basements.
19:36Freedom, baby. So thank you, Jimmy. As for the question.
19:40So hopefully, Jimmy, you can find episode 358 of this show from back in 2022.
19:45It's called Levitan Solopod Vasectomy Trip Report. I did the vasectomy.
19:49I broke down the entire experience in that episode.
19:52Why I did it, what it was like, the aftermath.
19:56I suspect you'll get some value out of that.
19:59Now that it's almost been four years since my vasectomy, I'm definitely glad I did it.
20:05I mean, I don't know. It feels a little weird, but you can't be a condom guy at this point, Jimmy.
20:12Like, reminds me of an incredible Seinfeld. Season 7, episode 9, called The Sponge.
20:17George explains to his fiancee, Susan, why he can never use a condom again.
20:22You know, watch that. Listen to episode 358. You got a lot of homework to do here, Jimmy, but I think it'll help.
20:30All right. That's going to do it for another edition of The Solo Pod.
20:35I'll be back Tuesday evening with Silva for Team by Team.
20:39Reminder, NBA season starts next week. You can head to the site and the NBA subscribe page for details on our three hoops products.
20:48Best ball, draft kit, NBA in season, led by Dink, Gallagher, Psalm, everybody on the NBA team.
20:54For Paruza Luke, for Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world, I'm Adam.
20:59Good luck, everybody. Thanks for having me. All right.
