0:00Hello and welcome to the Establish The Run Rest Of Season Top 150 Rankings Show.
0:05My name is Adam Levitan. Each and every Wednesday we are here to discuss our rankings for the rest of season, how
0:12those play into the season-long trade market, our redraft trade calculator, buy lows, sell highs, and more.
0:17Be sure to stay tuned until the end. We will answer your listener questions and submit our one move to make ahead of week four.
0:25For today's show, I am joined by three young men you know and love.
0:30Mark Dankenbring from the Projections team. How's it going?
0:33It's good, Adam. We're on the precipice of October, which feels pretty crazy.
0:37September has flown by here, but you know, that means NFL is in full swing.
0:42So as always, excited to be here. Indeed. Jack Miller, also from the Projections team.
0:46How are you? It's going well, except for one thing.
0:50I think as a little preview on the moves to make, I think I'm the only one who's at 0-2 now.
0:56So the pressure internally is mounting for that, but otherwise excited to talk about what happened this past week.
1:02The pressure is mounting externally as well. People need their moves to make.
1:07John Daigle from the season-long bro streets. How are you?
1:10Doing much better than last week back at full strength.
1:13Long season, only three games. So let's get into it.
1:16All right. Two quick notes here before we get started.
1:19First, if you want to access our rest of season top 150 rankings anytime throughout the week on a weekly basis, you need Draft Kit Pro.
1:28That Draft Kit Pro also comes with our redraft trade calculator.
1:31Really simple. Put in any trade and we'll tell you which side we prefer.
1:36We'll show you how that works a little bit later in the show.
1:40Second, if you are serious about your team or you are interested in playing DFS or more serious forms of fantasy, I
1:47think you'd be crazy not to check out our in-season product.
1:50Includes Silva's matchups, our projections for every player in every game, thorns, mismatches, and rankings for offensive line, defensive line, premium shows, and tons more.
1:58So head to establishtherun.com now for details on our two NFL products, Draft Kit Pro and in-season.
2:04All right. Rest of season top 150 rankings. I want to start with some concern at a team level for a bunch of teams.
2:11Let's start with the Giants here, Mark. We know that Jackson Dart is out.
2:16Now we know we have one game that we saw of Jameis Winston and they've traded for JJ McCarthy.
2:22We are down to 55 overall on Malik Neighbors, 60 on Cam Scadaboo, 132 on Isaiah.
2:27Likely, I think it's hard for me to tell what the market thinks right now of Giants stuff going forward.
2:33Mark, what do you think about how to handle this spot?
2:37We talked through the spot last week as well.
2:40Once one start went down and Jameis was announced the starter.
2:43And I think my conclusion and your conclusion, Adam, was we were a little bit more optimistic than the market in terms
2:50of like Jameis taking over and what that could mean fantasy wise.
2:54His arm has not looked good the first couple of weeks, though.
2:58Jameis Winston, you know, throwing a lot of ducks out there.
3:02And then they make this move for JJ McCarthy the day after Jameis's second or first start there for the Giants.
3:08So initially I thought, oh, man, they're going to get JJ McCarthy up to speed really quickly, you know, potentially start him in week five or six.
3:17Now I'm kind of looking at it as, well, they play Houston in week seven and they have a bye in week eight.
3:24You know, so I think maybe the more likely outcome is that JJ McCarthy probably takes over as a starter after their week eight bye.
3:32They'll still have, you know, eight or nine games to assess what he can bring to the table for them.
3:39So it's I think, you know, we downgraded neighbors and likely further in the rankings this week.
3:44I think that's probably my conclusion there. I think the floor here becomes a lot lower for those guys.
3:50Obviously, we didn't think, you know, too much of a ceiling outcome just given Jameis Winston's phase of his career at this point.
3:58Again, arm looking a little shot here. So it's tough.
4:01You know, I think neighbors and likely are more sell lows right now.
4:05I had Cam Scadaboo as my sell week one.
4:08And since then, he's run 53 percent of the routes and 69 percent of the routes.
4:13And so I think that was probably a bad take at the point.
4:17I think they're going to run the entire offense through Scadaboo at this point.
4:22So he's kind of the one I think holds decent fantasy value as of now.
4:26But the pass catchers, I think, are probably more sell lows than I did last week.
4:31The best thing I can say about Giants stuff right now is that they play the Cardinals, the Commanders and the Saints the next three weeks.
4:40I mean, those are three really, really good spots.
4:43However, I am concerned that these boomers are not going to let Jameis Winston cook.
4:47They are going to try to hide Jameis Winston and not let him do what he does best, even in these really good matchups.
4:55Like we saw what they did against the Titans.
4:58Yeah, it was a little rainy and out of lead.
5:01I'm still interested to see what they do while Jameis is in there, whether they're behind.
5:06But gosh, when they're ahead or if it's close, they're going to boomer it.
5:11And then they're going to get a look at J.J.
5:14McCarthy. So I'm pretty bearish here on Giants stuff going forward.
5:18I agree. That's why I agree with shopping Malik neighbors right now, just because Jameis Winston plays like a quarterback who spent
5:25the entire offseason talking about soccer on a different network.
5:28He's 33rd in catchable target rate. We know last year out of 45 quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks, J.J.
5:34McCarthy ranked 41st in catchable target rate. And that's why Justin Jefferson sunk to a career low under 12 points per game.
5:41I fear neighbors, even as he ramps up and gets back to full strength, is going to suffer that same fate in the second half of the year.
5:50So I don't mind shopping him now. Oh, yeah.
5:52Stay tuned for more on that teaser. Okay. Let's go to this Bucs situation, Daigle.
5:57This has been a really tough run out. You know, I thought Egbuka was a pretty good fourth round pick prior to the toe injury.
6:05After the toe injury, we docked him to a point where it was hard for us to really get him.
6:12That kind of saved me from myself on Egbuka.
6:14I would have had a much bigger Egbuka position if not for the toe injury.
6:19The way this has run out, Daigle, even with Baker, they've been so bad.
6:24And now they're going to Jalen Daniels. Not Jaden Daniels.
6:27Jalen Daniels undrafted out of Kansas. We're down to 66 overall here on Egbuka.
6:31Still up at 41 on Buckey. And then Godwin and Hurst down in the flyer range, 127.
6:37And 139. John Daigle, any thoughts on rest of season Bucs right now?
6:41Be careful in those Superflex League waivers because you will see Jaden Daniels, as I did last night, on the waiver wire.
6:48And you'll get excited. But don't get too excited since we're talking about an undrafted rookie now stepping in.
6:54The best thing you can say is he averaged 36 rushing yards per game over his last three seasons to starter.
7:01So perhaps we get some free floor points. But the ceiling is a disaster.
7:05Much like last year, Egbuka right now is top five in air yards per game and bottom five in catchable target rate.
7:12So he's getting a lot of deep throws. And all those throws are inaccurate.
7:17It's a mess. I do think, although he's pretty much useless, all these guys are.
7:22Chris Godwin's even droppable in 10-team leagues right now from Jalen Daniels.
7:25I do think Egbuka is a nice piece to tack on in a trade if you're acquiring him.
7:31Because I'm still looking at the second half of the season when Baker Mayfield is expected to return from this, quote, three-game minimum absence.
7:39And he's a player who could tip the scales and be startable if Baker returns healthy.
7:44So don't mind acquiring him. But in the short term over the next month, yeah, it's a mess.
7:50You know, Todd Bowles, I don't trust this guy at all to know, like, what time of the calendar he's talking about.
7:57Remember, he said Bucky Irving might be back sometime in the fall.
8:01Bucky was there on day one. He's done this repeatedly.
8:04So I believe Bowles was the one who gave the three-week timeline on Baker.
8:08I mean, I don't know, man. When Bowles gives injury timelines, I'm like, I want to hear it from someone else because
8:15I don't trust this guy at all. I don't know exactly how long Baker's going to be out.
8:21Three weeks seems like a good guess. It's going to be a tough click on all of these guys here in the meantime.
8:28You can make case for Bucky. They does have a couple good spots, Packers and Cowboys, the next two weeks here.
8:35And yeah, the Ted Hurst thing. For anyone in Dynasty Leagues, Jalen McMillan did go on IR.
8:41I, you know, I've thought Chris Godwin's probably toast.
8:43Going back to last year, Ted Hurst is going to play a ton.
8:48I mean, play a ton. And there were some big fans of Ted Hurst out there, though.
8:53So if you're in deep, deep league, Dynasty League, I'm really worried about Jalen McMillan here.
8:58Rest of season, Hurst is going to play a ton.
9:01Let's go to Vikings, Jack. I mean, I... The take before the season that I had, and I liked Kyler, and I
9:08thought, you know, I didn't hate Justin Jefferson as much as Silva.
9:12I didn't like Justin Jefferson as much as maybe the model-based ranks.
9:16But the concern was always that Kyler Murray was so bad in Arizona that he got effectively benched for Jacoby Brissett and then massively outplayed by Jacoby Brissett.
9:25That Kyler really has not been good since the ACL tear.
9:29And going to Minnesota was not going to revive him.
9:32It has been one game plus 11 snaps. So we have a very small sample on Kyler as a Viking.
9:38But that one game and 11 snaps, to me, has been extremely concerning.
9:42So, Jack, how concerned are you about Kyler's stuff here?
9:46We're down to 119 overall on him and overall Vikings thoughts.
9:49Yeah, it's been bad on Kyler. He's at 5.5 yards per attempt.
9:53He was at 6.0 last year. That 6.0 in the few games that he played for Arizona was a career low.
10:00Now the 5.5 is a career low. So I think it's fair to question what level of offense this can be under Kyler.
10:07But with that being said, I still think that Jefferson is a clear wide receiver one.
10:12I still think that he's going to be much better than he was last year.
10:17I think that it's just unlikely we see the ceiling that we saw from him a few years ago when the offense was more competent overall.
10:25But in week one, with Carson Wentz playing the majority of snaps, Jefferson still went eight for 92 and two touchdowns on nine targets.
10:33In week three, on only seven snaps, he had two catches for 32 yards before he left with an injury.
10:39He's still at 31% targets per hour run on the season.
10:43So the volume is still there. I still think that regardless of whether Kyler's taking a step back from what we're used
10:50to seeing from him, it's still an upgrade over what they had last year.
10:54And then Jefferson is questionable for week four with his ankle sprain.
10:58Addison had five for 90 and a touchdown last week.
11:01He could have had an even bigger game. He had a long pass go off his hands.
11:07He had a 31% target share. So I don't really think that this offense is good enough to sustain multiple fantasy-relevant fantasy starter types.
11:14But I certainly think that they're good enough to have at least one.
11:19I think Jefferson's going to be that guy when healthy.
11:22If Jefferson's out this week, Addison gets the Dolphins, I think that he's a pretty obvious start as well.
11:28Yeah. You know, I like Justin Jefferson. I would feel much better about him if Carson Wentz was starting.
11:34And I know that sounds crazy to say. My gut is that Carson Wentz can execute this offense and execute the Justin
11:41Jefferson in a way that maybe Kyler can't. I'm speculating here.
11:44I mean, like Justin Jefferson ran two routes. He had two catches for 32 yards.
11:49I just think with the ankle injury and the way Kyler's playing, I might take like Bowers and Cook over Jefferson here.
11:56But we're certainly splitting hairs here at the top.
11:59But yeah, like all those 2v2s that I talked about at the beginning of the year, you know, like Walker or James
12:06Cook or whatever running back you want over Justin Jefferson and then coming back in round four, round five, avoiding those running
12:13backs and coming back on wide receiver. It's not like the round four and five wide receivers have been great.
12:20But man, if you got like Walker or Cook there at the end of round one, that looks pretty good.
12:26CD's played great as well. But yeah, it's really tough on Minnesota, man.
12:30I'm worried. I hope it's going to be okay.
12:33But I'm at least a little bit worried. I do have a ton of Jordan Addison.
12:38As Jack mentioned, we're at 92 on Addison. I want to say like, I think it's probably, you know, a good thing
12:45that we feel solid about Carson Wentz as the backup quarterback here.
12:49So many situations around the league are just absolutely dire at QB2.
12:53You know, we just talked about the Bucs like going to Jalen Daniels.
12:57So I think that's a little bit solace in the past game.
13:01And then I want to note too, I think Jordan Mason is a pretty interesting stash right now.
13:07They just do not trust any running backs on their team outside of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.
13:12Aaron Jones has taken, I think, like 40 carries in the last two games.
13:17Do not expect him to necessarily stay healthy through that.
13:20Jordan Mason on IR right now. He's missed two games.
13:23You know, we'll miss at least two more. But I think he could potentially come back to a role where he gets 15 to 20 touches a game.
13:32Yeah. I mean, they can't keep doing this to Aaron Jones.
13:36He's going to die on the field. I mean, he cannot handle what's going on out there with this many touches for Aaron Jones.
13:43And yeah, Jordan Mason sounds like he will be back.
13:47What would it be? Week five, right? He will.
13:49Yeah, they called it short term reserve. And it's a thumb injury.
13:53It's not a soft tissue injury that we're worried about getting re-aggravated.
13:57Vikings also, from this point forward, through the fantasy playoffs, have the easiest projected schedule of opposing run defenses.
14:03And all these touches are already getting put on Aaron Jones.
14:07We always talk about buy lows. There's nothing, there's no one you could buy lower than someone who's in someone's IR slot right now.
14:14Yeah. Or on waivers. I mean, I've seen people, you know, drop Jordan Mason, too.
14:19Week six is the first game he can come back.
14:22Okay. Week six. Sorry. Yeah. Week six. First game back for Jordan Mason.
14:27Yeah. While we're on the Vikings here, we are recording this Wednesday afternoon.
14:31Justin Jefferson officially did not practice Wednesday as expected here.
14:34No surprise there. I would consider him very questionable for week four.
14:38But we'll see on that. Marco, let's go to Eagles.
14:41I mean, Sylvan and I talked about it on team by team.
14:45I've been worried about the Eagles going back to last season.
14:48You know, it's just, and I tried to put all the blame on Petulo.
14:53And that may have been dumb, you know, because they have looked same as they had last year when they had so many problems offensively.
15:01So many three and outs. It's crazy how many three and outs this team has.
15:06And now last year, I mean, they're worse than last year.
15:09The offensive line is older and worse. AJ Brown is gone.
15:13So I'm worried about the Eagles. We're down to 30th on Saquon Barkley.
15:17His ADP preseason was around 12, 13 overall. Mark, how worried are you on Eagles?
15:22I think pretty worried in the sense that they have played the commanders, titans and bears in the first three weeks, three
15:29defenses that we really want to pick on in fantasy and the results haven't been there.
15:34So they, you know, had a pretty easy pathway under a new offensive coordinator to hit the ground running.
15:40And that hasn't necessarily happened. Overall, I think, you know, kind of our offseason analysis of Jalen Hurts not being willing to
15:47throw over the middle of the field has come to fruition through three weeks as well.
15:52Like, you know, watching that Eagles-Bears game, they just kept showing highlights of Makai Lemon streaking wide open across the middle of the field.
16:00And Jalen Hurts is throwing a 50-50 ball to Devontae Smith down the sideline.
16:04And so I think like Devontae Smith and Ontavian Wicks are both, you know, solid fantasy wide receiver starters at this point in time.
16:12Just thinking Hurts is going to funnel the ball to them.
16:15Dallas Goddard out a couple more weeks there. So in terms of Saquon, you know, I'm not overly like panicking on him necessarily.
16:23He's played two full games. Obviously, like he left that week two game with a stinger.
16:28In those two full games, he's averaged five and a half yards per carry.
16:32I think if you told people that at the beginning of the season, hey, Saquon's going to play, you know, two full games.
16:40He's averaging five and a half yards per carry.
16:42I think they would take that. Certainly not involved in the pass game, but it's not like he necessarily was in previous seasons.
16:50You know, we just need Saquon to score some touchdowns and get a little bit more volume there.
16:56Is, you know, that season two years ago looking just like an absolute, you know, kind of like sun run and, you know, hit on all cylinders?
17:04Yes, I think so. But I think as of right now, you know, we have him as RB13.
17:10Like, I don't think we should go much lower than that in terms of the running back rankings.
17:16You know, so I think, yeah, one two turn pick feels bad right now.
17:20But I think where we have him is pretty fair.
17:23Yeah, the issue with Saquon has always been, and it was an outlier two years ago.
17:29He scored so many touchdowns because they all came from like 60 yards out.
17:33He's going to lose one yard touchdowns to Jalen Hurts, and he's not going to catch the football.
17:39So all the high value touch stuff that people argue and argue and argue and argue about every summer, it should be applied to Saquon.
17:47He's going to lose one yard touchdowns, and he's not really a factor in the passing game.
17:52And on top of that, like, the offense appears to be dysfunctional.
17:56So I know Daigle will have more on this later.
17:59But yeah, I'm worried. I mean, I like where we have Saquon now at 30th overall, but I think the chances of
18:06him being a guy that pays back 12, 13 overall value is just like really slim given the state of this offense.
18:13One thing, too, that we were waiting to see what happened under new offensive coordinators, if they would use Jalen Hurts in
18:20the designed run game again, that has not been the case.
18:24He only has two designed rush attempts in the first three weeks.
18:28That's a pretty big blow to his fantasy upside.
18:31So I'm hoping that comes back. Obviously, we saw the Tush Push touchdown, you know, week three there.
18:36That's going to retain, but they don't seem to be willing to use him as a designed rusher yet so far this year.
18:44Yeah, and that's crazy. Like, that would help Saquon, too.
18:47The more design runs, like, make that a threat, and then open up more lanes for Saquon to get to the second level.
18:54And that's the whole thing. Can Saquon get to the second level?
18:58As Mark said, they've had some amazing matchups so far and flubbed all of them.
19:03So yeah, we're down to 30th overall on Barkley there.
19:06105 on Wicks, 95 on Lemon. Let's go to some of the injuries at the running back position from week three.
19:13Daigle, we'll start with the Jets. So we don't have an exact timeline on Brees Hall.
19:18Certainly expect him to miss this week. They're calling him week-to-week.
19:21Injury was not as bad as they initially feared.
19:24Important point, you know, Sylvan and I talked about this yesterday, but Isaiah Davis has played zero offensive snaps this season.
19:31It has been all Braylon Allen. Do you think that will be sticky here, Daigle?
19:36And how do you think about Jets? Not only do we have Brees down, but also expecting Omar Cooper, Mason Taylor, A.D.
19:43Mitchell to possibly miss another week. Brees Hall labeled week-to-week.
19:46So you're getting Braylon Allen off most waiver wires as a short-term ad.
19:50And short-term, it's just fine. I'm sure we're going to talk about the Dolphins soon.
19:55But short-term, it's much better matchups than what Ollie Gordon or Jalen Wright are running into just because this Bears defense has
20:02been road-graded for a league-high yards before contact for carry.
20:05So I do think Braylon Allen is a fine RB2 this upcoming week.
20:09Beyond that, though, I do worry that they've tried to use him in the past.
20:14I think everyone forgets last year he missed 13 games.
20:172024, though, they wanted a committee. They just couldn't have a committee because Braylon Allen was one of the worst and most
20:24inefficient running backs in the entire league. The abs look good on social media.
20:29They look amazing. But then when he touches the football, it's a disaster.
20:33So, again, matchup-based, amazing against the Bears. You're going to be just fine.
20:37And then cross your fingers, Brees Hall's back, because I doubt Braylon Allen's the guy you want long-term or who the Jets want long-term.
20:45Yeah. He was like 19 years old that rookie season.
20:48I don't disagree, though. Like, the knock on him is that people think he's just not that good, Braylon Allen.
20:54I'm not sure the Jets necessarily feel that way.
20:57But, yeah. I mean, he's still 22. This is his third NFL season.
21:02He's 22 years old. You know, it's crazy. So, I don't want to hold that rookie season too much against him.
21:08But agree, underlying stuff has not been great. The other part of this is Kenyon Sadiq.
21:13And I'm sure there were a ton of waiver questions on this this week.
21:18Daigle, do you think this will be a long-term Sadiq breakout?
21:21Or was that a one-off based on everyone being out and they're playing the Lions?
21:26The long-term answer is I don't think you can put the first-round genie back in the land.
21:32We've got to make this work somehow. Even if we go back to week one's rushing touchdown, we have to keep this guy on the field.
21:40Only Mark Andrews and Brock Bowers were targeted at a higher rate of their routes last week than Kenyon Sadiq, who also
21:47led those players, all players, at his position in yards per route run.
21:51He's too explosive now for a Jets offense that's 10th and pass rate over expectation, and that's how they want to play with Geno Smith playing so well.
22:00He's too explosive to now keep him off the field in favor of someone like Mason Taylor.
22:05The thing is, there's so many wonky splits going on here because A.D.
22:10Mitchell injured his finger and didn't play last week.
22:12Prior to that, he had a 33% target share.
22:15What happens when we jam him back into this lineup?
22:19But at least for right now, it is a Kendrick Bourne situation like last year for the 49ers where we've got to keep playing this guy.
22:27And as Josh Norris at Yahoo has harped on, the wide receiver threes and fours, because multi-tight end sets are a thing,
22:34are so flimsy that flexing tight ends makes the most sense.
22:37So Kenyon Sadiq, Darren Waller, these guys can be flexed every single week behind your tight end one as well.
22:44God, makes me sick. But I do love Sadiq.
22:47I mean, gosh, I love a good athlete at the tight end position.
22:51And he gets Bears, Browns next two weeks, Dolphins in four weeks.
22:55He gets Raiders, Dolphins again late, Cardinals in the fantasy playoffs there.
22:59So we have Sadiq as the tight end 10, you know, ahead of Harold Fannin, ahead of Pitts, ahead of likely some
23:06guys that were certainly going much, much, much higher.
23:08On a week-to-week basis, obviously a lot of tight end production is going to be touchdown dependent, but I think this is the right spot.
23:16And if he wasn't on the Jets, it'd probably be even higher for Kenyon Sadiq.
23:21I mean, dude just looks like he has it.
23:24Sometimes you can just see like dude has it and he certainly looks to have it.
23:29Until he's 20 years old. Talk about young. It's clicked.
23:32For a player who missed the last month of training camp, I'm shocked that he's this integrated and like understands the offense this well.
23:40That doesn't happen. Let's go to Miami, Jack, for this Devon HN situation.
23:44People that spent half their budget or more of their fab money on Ali Gordon are not going to be happy that
23:51we have Ali Gordon at 130th overall in the rest of season.
23:55Top 150. They're going to say, how can you have a starting running back this low?
24:00Jack, thoughts on our rank here on Ali Gordon and the backfield without HN?
24:05Yeah, I mean, the team environment is just so bad.
24:08The Dolphins in weeks one and two were fourth in the league with a 24.4% target share to running backs.
24:14I think a lot of that is because they had Devon HN.
24:18Ali Gordon played basically the entire game in week three and only had an 8% target share.
24:24When you look back at Malik Willis' starts with the Titans and Packers, the team's running back target share fell by an average of 2.1% in Willis' starts.
24:33That kind of aligns with what we know about scrambling quarterbacks and them being less likely to target the running back.
24:39So I think the running back target share is likely to fall here.
24:43And then Jalen Wright played the same number of snaps as Ali Gordon in week one.
24:49It was also a pretty tight battle for the RB2 role during the preseason.
24:53He missed last week with a stinger and a foot injury, but is back at practice this week.
24:59So I think it could be more of a committee than a lot of people are expecting if you just look at
25:06the week three usage once Jalen Wright is back.
25:09And then this team is just so bad. I think that they're in competition for being the worst NFL team ever.
25:15They're 11.5 point favorite underdogs to the Vikings this week.
25:19It's just going to be really ugly for the Dolphins rest of season, I think.
25:23Yeah. I mean, I wish I went harder on this take because it would have been really profitable.
25:29Like, I don't think people, I don't think that, I don't know if people are already tired of me saying this.
25:36I think it's hard for like models, including ours to fathom how little talent there is on the Dolphins.
25:42So like, that's where I thought the HAN rank and HAN projections on a week to week basis just weren't right.
25:49Because the Dolphins are so much worse than anybody could possibly fathom from a talent perspective.
25:54Maybe they'll win some games on scheme or who knows, you know, weird things.
25:58Just on talent, though, it's hard to find a worse NFL team in the last 20 years.
26:04And like the underlying data is like bearing that out.
26:07So, yeah. HAN had 10.6 and 12.3 PPR fantasy points during the first two weeks.
26:12And now you've got a team that's going to throw to their running backs less and more of a split once Jalen Wright is back.
26:20So I think it's just a really tough outlook for both Oli and Jalen Wright.
26:24And even in expected points per game, HAN wasn't an RB2.
26:28He was the RB27 so far because of light usage for an offense that's dead last in every single advanced metric you look at.
26:36Brandon Thornton constantly writes about them as the worst offensive line in the league.
26:40It's certainly concerning, especially when we talk about flexing a player off of the waiver wire short term because Braylon Allen gets the Bears.
26:48Oli Gordon and or Jalen Wright get the Vikings, which are literally first in our DVP metric on the site and deflating running back production against them.
26:56I do want to note, though, that from week five on for whatever this works, because the Dolphins are not favored in another game.
27:04Perhaps they can't run the ball and won't have a lead anyway, since to this point through three games, they haven't played a snap with a lead.
27:13They do have the second easiest rushing schedule in the league for an RB hungry team.
27:18I think that's worth something since there are a lot of people out here just trying to survive at that position.
27:25Yeah. Let's go to. Oh. Have to give you guys a reminder.
27:28This free show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets and one that is now available in every U.S.
27:36state. You go back to episode 1018 for more on my take why prediction markets make sense around sports for people like us.
27:44But the bottom line is really two simple things.
27:47First, Poly is just another place we can look to shop for the best price.
27:51Perhaps because there's competition for flow, not someone just setting a line, we can often get the best price on Poly.
27:58And second, perhaps most importantly, there is no limiting in any markets.
28:02And there's tons of markets, you know, traditional ones, futures, alts, everything.
28:06Even if you're interested in player props or some of these smaller markets like we are, you will not get the dreaded
28:13max is 26 cents screen, even if you're winning, even if you're getting CLV.
28:17And we can also trade out of positions at any time and market odds, you know, not the gouging you see from
28:24sports books on the early cash out buttons. So if you're interested in checking it out, Polymarket has an offer that is expiring on Thursday.
28:32Not just saying that today is the last day.
28:35If you use code ETR, when you sign up for Polymarket and deposit 10 bucks, they'll give you $50.
28:41Starting Thursday, that offer will be deposit 10, they'll give you $25.
28:45So if you listen to this on Wednesday and you're interested in Poly at all, use promo code ETR to get that
28:5210, deposit 10, get 50 offer using code ETR.
28:55Again, code ETR at polymarket.com. All right, Mark, let's go to some usage stuff here.
29:00Start the running back position. It is scary for Amarian Hampton, who is not only losing some groundwork to Keaton Mitchell, but
29:07now he is losing a lot of routes to Vidal and Keaton Mitchell here as well.
29:12So we have an offense that is struggling and an offense that is using three running backs and an offense that isn't
29:19using Hampton as much in the past game. We are down to 50 overall right now on Hampton.
29:25Mark, what is the concern level here? Oh man, it's bad.
29:28It's high concern level for me. I knew the route stuff wasn't great for Amarian Hampton through three games, but it's a
29:35bit more dire than I thought after looking into it.
29:39So far this season, 28 running backs have played at least 50% of their team's offensive snaps.
29:44This season, Amarian Hampton ranks 26 out of 28 running backs with a 24% route share on the season.
29:5024%, just incredibly low. Therefore, a running back, the only guys lower than him are Tony Pollard and Derek Henry.
29:56Chargers O-line, as you mentioned, has taken some hits.
29:59Tyler Biatish out before the season at center. They were Thorne's 20th ranked offensive line going into week three.
30:05And I think Hampton, you know, at this point in time was a second round pick in fantasy.
30:11First round draft capital in the real NFL draft.
30:14So I think people will kind of cling to that a little bit.
30:18And I do think he is a viable sell low at this point in time because of that.
30:24He does have, you know, the goal line role at this point in time.
30:28So far, he's had five carries inside the 10-yard line for the Chargers.
30:33All three running back carries inside the five for the Chargers.
30:36So he does have that goal line role. But in terms of, you know, receiving, that's not going to be there.
30:43And then again, just the Chargers offense has looked pretty anemic and they have a brutal schedule upcoming.
30:49So he's kind of like an early down plotter, goal line back without the receiving work.
30:54And, you know, just a lot of the offseason hope that we had for this Chargers offense has not come to fruition
31:01at all for O'Meara and Hampton specifically. So I think he's a pretty good sell low right now, you know, thinking that
31:08your league mates may still value him higher than they should.
31:11Yeah. It's just been such a national story about how bad the Chargers are.
31:16It strikes me as a spot that's going to be really hard to sell low.
31:21But if you could, I mean, they play at Seattle versus Denver, at the Chiefs, at the Rams, versus Houston, at the Ravens in their next six games.
31:30Like, it's going to be really tough. Even if he wasn't splitting work, even if they were playing reasonably, it was still
31:37going to be really tough this stretch here for Hampton.
31:40So yeah, man, it's not good. It's just a very stubborn offense.
31:44They are 27th in pass rate over expectation as a offense that wants to run first.
31:49And yet they're 30th in EPA per carry. So they want to run first and continue doing so, despite being very bad at it.
31:56Something has to give. I know Harbaugh even noted that all things are on the table right now.
32:02So we'll see what happens. All right. I'm actually going to go to Daigle for this David Montgomery situation.
32:08There was a five alarm fire in the David Montgomery streets because Woody Marks got the goal line carry from the one yard line.
32:16And if you could say anything positive about David Montgomery before the season, well, in my opinion, if you could say anything
32:23positive about David Montgomery before the season, all you could say was he's going to get a huge workload and he's going to get the goal line work.
32:32Now, I'm not sure you can even say either of those things.
32:36He's been outplayed by Woody Marks and he lost the goal line carry to Woody Marks.
32:41So Daigle, how concerned are you on the David Montgomery take?
32:44We are down to 70th overall on David Montgomery right now.
32:48No concern just yet. Ask me again next week after they play the Cowboys if they fail.
32:53This past game, the Colts literally played the highest rate of eight man boxes because when you can't look up and see
33:00Nico called and Jaden Higgins, all you have to do is stop the run.
33:05You can do whatever else you want because CJ Stroud can't beat you.
33:09So obviously right now, Texans running backs through three weeks, Woody Marks and David Montgomery are literally bottom two, bottom three, and
33:16getting hit behind the line of scrimmage because they can't run the ball because they've had nowhere to pass.
33:22So let's get Nico Collins back against the bad Cowboys defense and figure it out from there.
33:28Montgomery still handled 68% of backfield touches. So not worried.
33:31Still going to start him. Ask me again next week.
33:34That is the glass half full take. The glass half empty take is this team has never been able to run the ball and Dave Montgomery sucks.
33:43So why would you, why would Dave Montgomery come in and suddenly light a fire under and be like, oh, Nico's back.
33:50He's going to start ripping off big plays. He's not.
33:53The only way that Dave Montgomery hits is if he gets 20 plus touches in a game, which I'm skeptical that he is now.
34:00And he gets the, he gets touchdowns. I also am.
34:04I think that there's been a lot of fluctuations in how people perceive David Montgomery's value without that much actually changing.
34:10Nathan Yonke at PFF has kind of been on this the whole year.
34:15The Texans do the same thing every game at running back, or at least they have so far.
34:20They give Montgomery the first two drives and then it's a drive by drive rotation.
34:25And if there's a super long drive, maybe the other guy comes in to give the other guy a breather.
34:31But for the most part, it's just D-Monk gets the first two drives, then Woody, then Mont, then Woody over and over again.
34:39And Woody got a goal line carry on a drive that was Woody's drive.
34:43So I don't think that that much really changed.
34:46I know there was that blurb today that they're going to get Woody more involved, but Woody hasn't been particularly good either.
34:53He's at 3.0 yards per carry. Both running backs are at negative 0.4 rush yards over expectation per attempt.
34:59So I haven't really liked David Montgomery the whole time, but I will add that I don't really think anything changed in 3.
35:07It's just kind of they use both guys. I think no reaction is the correct reaction.
35:12Yeah, that's fair. The quote that Jack is referring to today was from Dan Graziano said, my sense of it is that
35:19still that they'll give more work to Woody Marks as he's generally been running better and looking more explosive than offseason edition Dave Montgomery.
35:26Anybody's more explosive than Dave Montgomery. I don't think Woody Marks is good either, but anybody's more explosive than Dave Montgomery.
35:33So yeah, I like that note from Jack. And yeah, certainly it'll be better when he goes back.
35:39Like that will make a difference. But yeah, it's just this is why like I think it's tough to be, hey, he's not that good.
35:47The situation sucks. But where else they have to go?
35:50Teams find another place to go if the guy sucks, you know, so.
35:54So we'll see. We'll see how it goes. Let's go to Jack.
35:58Let's go to Brian Thomas Jr. I mean. He ran 15 routes on 30 plus Trevor Lawrence dropbacks in this game on Sunday in week three.
36:06There's new rumors that they could look to trade Brian Thomas at this point.
36:11I don't know why they wouldn't really like. I guess the best argument for Brian Thomas is that what he can do
36:18is stretch defenses deep, similar to Alec Pierce or Carnell Tate.
36:21And the NFL seems to value that very, very, very highly now.
36:25It's not good for fantasy, but they seem to.
36:28We're down to 111 overall on Brian Thomas. Jack, thoughts on how to handle this spot?
36:33Yeah, it's not great. The thing is, I just don't know who's going to buy Brian Thomas Jr.
36:39at this point. I do think that it's right to be pretty worried about him.
36:44They like Josh Cameron a lot. He played the same amount of snaps as BTJ in week three.
36:50A lot of that is that Josh Cameron was still playing in garbage time.
36:54So it's a little bit deceiving. But Brian Thomas Jr.
36:57was still down to 45% routes on Sunday. Jacoby Myers, who didn't really get targets in the first two weeks, had a 28.6% target share.
37:05And we really saw the routes consolidate on Jacoby and Parker Washington.
37:09And then Liam Cohen was singing the praises of Josh Cameron postgame.
37:13Not all of it was about him as a receiver.
37:16He was saying he was the personal protector on the punt team, too.
37:20They seem to really like his blocking. So I think that he's going to continue to play.
37:26I think that BTJ is going to continue to be third in routes.
37:30But if you're third in routes and Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers are both capable target earners, it's just not that valuable of a role.
37:38Especially since, I mean, Brian Thomas Jr. is already struggling with drops.
37:42The targets might not be all that valuable either, even if he is spacing the field.
37:47So I think that there's, I think that at this point you might want him to be traded.
37:53Because I think that in the short term, the role in Jacksonville, it's just, it's not that great.
37:58Oh, that's the only reason to hold him, right, Daigle?
38:02I mean, I could see dropping Brian Thomas if it wasn't for trade rumors.
38:06With the trade rumors, maybe I hold him and hope he lands somewhere good.
38:11But barring a trade, Daigle, I could consider dropping Brian Thomas, depending how deep your league is.
38:16Well, remember, we talked about this in one of our final preseason shows before the year, is that don't draft Brian Thomas when everyone's going to drop him.
38:25Just wait and pick him up. The exact runout that we projected is happening right now.
38:30We want Brian Thomas after the team's bye when they return in week eight.
38:35So let's wait. Let's pick him up. Let's trade for him.
38:38Let's not start him. Because, again, we projected this.
38:41Yeah, that was a good take. And part of the take was that he had some very, very difficult matchups.
38:47He's already seen Denzel Ward and Patrick Sertan and Christian Gonzalez.
38:51And he's going to see DJ Turner. And he's going to see Quinone Mitchell.
38:55And he's going to see all these guys in the first part of the season.
39:00I'm skeptical that really matters. I don't think they really want him to be part of the offense that badly anyways.
39:07But it's certainly worth noting. And, yeah, maybe that has been a factor.
39:11But, yeah, if you're the Jaguars, trade him, man.
39:14Like, he has value out there in the actual NFL trade market.
39:18I still think. It also makes Jacoby Myers more of a buy low individual.
39:22Because forever, this Liam Cohen offense hasn't been concentrated in two directions.
39:26It's always been Parker Washington staying afloat and demanding targets.
39:29But then everyone else being involved. If now not even Britton Strange and Brian Thomas aren't involved, Jacoby Myers is the guy
39:36who can kind of hover here with a consistent 20% to 25% target share behind Washington.
39:41And we can finally get like a proper double stack where Lawrence's targets go.
39:46Yep. We're up to 22 overall on Parker Washington, by the way.
39:50I just want to read. He's so good. Oh, he's so good.
39:53Some of the names that he's ahead of for us now.
39:57Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, Devonta Smith, George Pickens. A lot of real Lad McConkie.
40:01A lot of really, really good NFL wide receivers.
40:04But Parker Washington's role and ability has been smash going back to when he started breaking out last year.
40:10Ever since he took the team photos before the year and had chopped wood on one fire on one forearm and carry
40:17water tattooed on the other forearm, we should have known.
40:21That was the sign. I didn't know that. That's great.
40:24Shout out Penn State. Okay. Last one here before we get to listener questions.
40:28Mark is the Colston Loveland situation. Bears get Case Keenum in there, play a very good game.
40:34Luther Burden gets going. But yet again, it was better for Colston Loveland.
40:38He caught four balls. But yet again, he seems like an afterthought in the offense.
40:43We are now down to 62 overall on Loveland.
40:46People are probably going to look at this mark and be like, you guys are still too high on Colston Loveland.
40:52I can't even start this guy. He's not even really a part of the offense.
40:57So Mark, thoughts on the Colston Loveland rank right now?
41:00I don't know if they're going to love my explanation either because I don't know if it's really changed all that much.
41:07I am kind of taking the long view of, hey, it's only been three games.
41:12I do think the talent is eventually going to take over here and the Bears offense in Loveland will be more of a featured player.
41:20Last year as a rookie, he had a 25% target per outrun.
41:24This year it's been 11%. So more than cut in half.
41:28It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me to continue on that way.
41:33Maybe it doesn't get all the way back up to those rookie season numbers.
41:3725% target per outrun would be very elite for a tight end.
41:41So I think that's a good chance that it won't be.
41:44But yeah, I think sounding like a broken record, I think Loveland is more of a buy low at this point in time.
41:52Maybe it's a spot. I think it's fine. We've talked about the depth at tight end through this season at this point.
41:59I think it's okay to maybe leave Loveland on your bench until you see it for a game.
42:05I don't necessarily love saying that because I think the breakout is probably going to be a little bit unpredictable there.
42:11But I do have faith in this talent and this Bears offense, you know, ascending throughout the season.
42:17So I think he's still a hold. And I think tight end seven is pretty fair right now.
42:23So Colston Loveland has seen nine targets through three games.
42:26Kalief Raymond has seen 21 targets through three games.
42:29And people are going to say, well, how can you guys have Kalief Raymond 141 overall and Loveland 62 overall?
42:35If you think this Kalief Raymond thing continues throughout the season, then yes, this is going to look really, really bad.
42:42Obviously, we think that Kalief Raymond will come back to earth, but he's played well, man.
42:47So I don't know. I'm a little worried that this Kalief Raymond thing is actually going to be like a thing.
42:54Not to this extent where he's getting seven targets a game, but just getting three, four, five targets a game and running
43:01routes that we want Loveland and Burden to be running.
43:04I'm a little worried, man. He's played well, you know, I'm a little worried.
43:09I think a lot of people want this list to be like, hey, who have been the top fantasy scorers through the
43:16first three weeks and just rank them that way?
43:18You know, there's plenty of those lists out there.
43:21If you think we're way off, you know, feel free, feel free to criticize that regard.
43:26But, you know, we are trying to look forward more than just assess, you know, what's happened in the first three weeks.
43:34It's an important point. It's from week four through week 17 here, not points for week one through three.
43:40It's definitely right to think that Kalief Raymond is the one that falls out of this offense with all the immense talent around him.
43:47But also even three weeks is three weeks too long to be hovering like this.
43:52Through three games, he has finished as the wide receiver three, wide receiver 44, and wide receiver 29 in target share across the entire league.
44:00Like consistently, he's been getting involved. It's pretty wacky.
44:03Yep. All right. Let's get some listener questions here.
44:06Mike says, is Ashton Gentry Trent Richardson? This sounds like something I would say, Mike.
44:11You know, I'm going to do the jokes around here about highly drafted players who might be underperforming.
44:16But yes, Ashton Gentry's efficiency has been flat bad when he has not been facing the Dolphins.
44:22And that goes back to last year also. The excuse last year, of course, was he had this horrific offensive line.
44:29I think that is fair. But yeah, Jack or anyone really, do you think there's room to be concerned on Ashton Gentry from an efficiency perspective now?
44:37We're at 19 overall on him. I think there's room to be a little bit concerned.
44:42And there's another excuse flying around that his ankle that he heard in preseason might've been aggravated in week two and maybe even again in week three.
44:51So there may be some reason behind the lack of efficiency so far.
44:55But at the same time, Mike Washington is averaging 6.8 yards per carry, had a long touchdown run this week.
45:01Gentry's at 3.3 yards per carry. Kubiak said that they want to get, they need to get Mike Washington involved.
45:08So I think that we could start to see the carry split tighten a little bit.
45:13The place that Gentry is still, the clear RB1 is in the pass game.
45:1760.8% seasonal route share, 18.1% seasonal target share. Both of those numbers might fall or will fall with Brock Bowers back.
45:24But I still think that they want Gentry to be involved in this passing game.
45:29And so I think that that's kind of what is keeping him elevated this high is that he should get the overwhelming majority of the high value touches.
45:38But I think that we could start to see Mike Washington encroach a little bit on the early down carries just with the gap in efficiency so far.
45:47Yeah. I mean, we have Ashton Gentry in this range here with Chase Brown, Jeremiah Love, Javante Williams, Kyron Williams.
45:53I don't think that Gentry deserves to be anywhere but in this tier.
45:57Like, I personally probably prefer some of these guys above Gentry, Kyron, Jeremiah Love, maybe Chase Brown also here.
46:03But yeah, I think that's the right tier there for Ashton Gentry.
46:07Even when he's struggled these last two weeks for whatever reason, Gentry's still the RB2 in expected points because he has the
46:14fourth highest target share in his position. Yeah. I think it's a really good week to ask your league mates about these
46:21players that we know have ceilings and everyone's now worried about.
46:25Ashton Gentry, Ladd McConkie, the list goes on of players we've talked about throughout this show.
46:30Yeah. I want to try to acquire these guys for much cheaper.
46:34That's fair. I'm just not sure people are worried about Ashton Gentry.
46:38Like, I can't walk one foot without somebody saying, you can't say that about Ashton Gentry, Adam.
46:43He is one of the best prospects in the history of the running back position.
46:48You can't say anything bad about Ashton Gentry. I feel like that sentiment is still out there.
46:53So, yeah, so much of this goes back to how your league feels about these guys.
46:58You know, it's sometimes hard for me to tell.
47:01Yeah, it goes back to your league. I feel like everyone is tradable.
47:06I know someone in a high-stakes league that just sent me a question about I got offered Michael Wilson for Omari and Hampton.
47:13Like, people are still out there buying these players we have preseason evaluations on that have struggled so far because they know
47:20the ceiling it entails and now you can get them at fourth and fifth round cost.
47:25And that's kind of like where I like to be active this week.
47:29Yep. We kind of did this one already, but front office NFL says Parker Washington has delivered the results we wanted, but his ceiling looks Captain Cohen's scheme.
47:38Now the time to sell a package for a bigger name.
47:42I don't think so. Like I said, I like where we have parking Washington here at 22 overall.
47:47Jacksonville has not even gotten into like a wild game yet.
47:51I mean, they smoked the Browns. They were in a low-scoring battle with the Broncos and they smoked the Patriots.
47:57They have not been in like a back-and-forth game where Parker Washington could really get nuts.
48:02They play the Bengals this week. You know, I'm not trading Parker Washington before this game.
48:08Let's go to... Here's a good one, Mark. What do you think we should do about Jalen Waddell?
48:13You know, this is kind of my take before the season on Jalen Waddell when people were just like falling all over themselves.
48:21His ADP went from like 50-something to 30-something because of some people liking him on Twitter.
48:26And I like Jalen Waddell. I thought he was a fine pick like in the 40s.
48:31But in a Sean Payton offense, you have to be the man.
48:35Otherwise, you can get schemed out a little bit.
48:38They did not play a good first half against the Rams.
48:41But yeah, what do you think about Waddell? I'm not like panicked on Waddell or anything.
48:46We have 38 overall. I think that feels pretty good to me.
48:50But yeah, Mark, what do you think about Waddell?
48:53For sure. It's been a little volatile so far, but kind of on the flip side of the Eagles, you know, schedule
49:00scenario, the Broncos have played the Chiefs, Jags, and Rams defenses so far.
49:04I think pretty, three pretty tough tests at this point in time.
49:08We saw Waddell have a great game against the Jags in week two.
49:12You know, these kind of middling wide receiver two valuations, I guess, are just going to be a little bit volatile week to week.
49:20And then when you're attached to Bo Nex, who's volatile in his own right, I think, you know, there's going to be
49:27some great games and some games you're like, man, why did I start Jalen Waddell this week?
49:32So, you know, maybe we're a little hot at wide receiver 19.
49:36I could see maybe coming down there a little bit, but in terms of value, I probably value Waddell still a little
49:43bit higher than maybe like the market sentiment on him right now.
49:47Two bad games isn't enough to get me off of him.
49:51And then, you know, he was pictured in a walking boots earlier this week, I think, but all news around that has
49:58been that he's fine and that's not really a concern.
50:01We'll kind of see what his practice participation is like this week, but that's certainly something to watch out there for too as well with Waddell.
50:09Yeah. Broncos could get very throw heavy. We saw them get throw heavy at times last year and Jonah Coleman is on IR.
50:16Like a JK, they're a JK Dobbins injury away from having like RJ Harvey who they don't want to run the ball with really at all.
50:25They could get really past heavy here. Get the 49ers, Chargers next two weeks to get the Cardinals coming up here in a little bit.
50:33I mean, there's some spots for Jalen Waddell. I think we're roughly in the right range here on his rank.
50:39Speaking of this range, Daigle, MLB Pimao asked, level of concern on Lad McConkie.
50:44Strikes me as like another Chargers systemic concern question, but Daigle, what do you think about Lad?
50:49We're at 33 overall on Lad, just a little bit ahead of Waddell.
50:53Another player I actually like buying low because we haven't seen him play.
50:57Like he's been injured the first two weeks, comes back this past game so far with Lad on the field.
51:04The Chargers have the eighth highest success rate of all offenses in the league.
51:08They dropped to 28th when he's been off the field and again, he hasn't played.
51:13So as a, and having the faith in one player in this Chargers offense after the Bills were a systemic failure where
51:20they went to not only blowing the lead, but then not covering after having a massive lead.
51:25I believe in Lad McConkie still quite confidently. I like that one as a buy to Lad McConkie.
51:31Mark, sorry, Jack, Abogavich says, is Derrick Henry a sell high over the next few weeks?
51:36Soft schedule to start the year, but he has Bengals, Bills, Jags coming up.
51:41Is it best to capitalize on his peak value?
51:44How could we trade Derrick Henry before his revenge game against the Titans coming up on Sunday, Jack?
51:49I would, we have Derrick Henry nine overall. I don't think you're going to be able to get much better than that,
51:57but I don't know, Jack, what do you think about selling on Derrick Henry?
52:01Yeah, the schedule definitely gets tougher, but at the same time, we know what we're getting from Derrick Henry unless someone is
52:08like over indexing on the last three games or something compared to the longer sample size with Henry.
52:14I don't really think that you're going to pull a fast one on anybody, so I would lean toward just holding Derrick
52:21Henry knowing that the schedule is going to get tougher.
52:24I mean, this offense looks elite. We know Henry's elite.
52:27I would just hold him. In December this year, Derrick Henry gets Bucks, Steelers, Browns, Bengals.
52:32Browns and Bengals week 16, week 17. He's going to score touchdowns, man, in those games.
52:37I'm not really in the business of selling Derrick Henry.
52:41Yeah, I like where we have him at nine overall.
52:44Mark, let's go to, we haven't talked about Puka here today.
52:47I mean, this is a really tough one for us in the rest season top 150.
52:52I still, in my gut, feel like Puka is more of a buy than a sell, but that could look really bad
53:00if I wake up one day and it's like, a tweet from Schefter saying that Puka had surgery to repair something in his hip or his groin.
53:08I don't know exactly what's going on. They say he has a chance to play this week, but it seems kind of unlikely to me.
53:16Mark, would you do Puka for Olave? We have them three spots apart right now.
53:21And what do you think about handling Puka? I think like, by buying in these injury situations, you either look like an absolute genius or an absolute fool.
53:30Depending on how it plays out. If Puka, if this ends up being more serious and you're like, oh, you bought Puka
53:37when he's injured, you're an absolute idiot. Or if you buy him and he's back in week five and crushes the rest
53:44of the season, then you look like an absolute genius.
53:47So I think it's a pretty hard one to parse.
53:50I think for me, the Puka Nakua upside is not something I'm necessarily willing to give up in fantasy football.
53:57I think he's just such a separator when he is out there.
54:01We've seen Terrence Ferguson go down for the Rams.
54:03We've seen just kind of attrition all throughout the Rams lineup that I think Puka is going to hit the ground running when he does come back.
54:12Do I know when he's coming back? No, I don't.
54:15I would keep Puka instead of trading for Alave.
54:18So yeah, I think just the ceiling with Puka is still so strong that I want that on my teams.
54:25Agreed. I mean, I thought before this season outside of Gibbs, you can make a case for Puka to be the number two player in fantasy.
54:33And so, yeah, I prefer Puka. It's tough though because if you drafted Puka middle of the first round, I doubt your team is doing that well.
54:42So then it's like, oh, you can't really hold on for too much longer.
54:46So again, the level of desperation is tough to combat with how it's going to play out.
54:51All right. Those who had Brock Bowers though, they recognized how quickly a player of that caliber can flip a lineup and suddenly make you a contender again.
55:00100%. Yeah. All right. Let's go to a few trades here before we get to our move to make.
55:06Warrior says he's considering trading Garrett Wilson for Javante Williams.
55:10He just lost HN and ETN would still have JT, Alave, Vernon, Golden.
55:14Full PPR. Yeah. I think that these guys are close enough and we actually have Javante ahead.
55:19And so if you have a need at running back, I think this is one is a no brainer.
55:25Daigle, any thoughts on this while I tech lord over to the trade calculator.
55:30He says it right here has a Lave, Burden, and Golden.
55:33Players you can start every single week even in trading Garrett Wilson so completely fine with it.
55:39Agreed. Yeah. And I actually think given that he has clearly has the running back injuries with HN and ETN still week
55:46to week as well though no injured reserve just yet.
55:49Yeah. And I mean, yeah, we have these guys very, very close anyways.
55:53So, yeah, yeah, we have Javante just a hair ahead in the calculator.
55:57Okay. Next question. Jack, if you want to read this one to me, I can put it into the calculator.
56:04Yeah, so this one is Bowers and Javante for Derrick Henry and Ladd.
56:08And all we know is that he has Kenneth Walker.
56:11He would be getting the Bowers side. We have this one pretty close.
56:15I think having K9, I think I lean toward Bowers.
56:18I'm also a little bit higher, I think, on Bowers than we have it in the rest of season top 150.
56:25But I do think that this one's pretty fair.
56:28I slightly lean Bowers side though. Yeah. I mean, for me, the type, and I just said I liked buying low on
56:35Ladd and I do love Derrick Henry. I kind of like all four of these players for a tiebreaker for me here.
56:42I might just be like, let me get away from this Chargers mess.
56:46You know, because I think it's really close, but let me get away from the Chargers mess and be on the Bowers and Javante's side.
56:54But yeah, I like all four players in this trade.
56:57Would really need to know his depth at wide receiver behind McConkie to fully evaluate this trade.
57:03But in a vacuum, I like the Bowers and Javante side.
57:06Agreed. All right, Mark, you want to read this last one here to me?
57:11I could put this one into the calculator. Sure.
57:14So on one side, it's to send Saquon Barkley and Jalen Waddell in return for Chris Alave and Christian Watson.
57:20Oh, baby. Do we know it? And his wide receiver, his running backs are JT, DeAndre Swift, and RJ Harvey.
57:27So he's losing Saquon, but still has JT, Swift, and Harvey.
57:30Yeah, we have this very much in favor of the Alave, Christian Watson side.
57:35So like when we have a 30% gap here in the trade calculator, Mark, I feel like that's a move that I probably want to make.
57:43I don't want to say independent of my roster, but most likely I want to try to make the move.
57:49What do you think, Mark? For sure. Yeah, he also says his wide receivers are Lamb, Flowers, and Diggs.
57:55So I think Alave and Watson obviously well above Diggs there.
57:59I don't know if this is a start three wide receiver and a flex league.
58:04If you had Lamb, Flowers, Alave, and Watson as your four, being able to start on those guys, that'd be pretty incredible.
58:11So I think, yeah, lean inside with the trade calculator here.
58:14Yeah, and I think a lot of leagues are three wide receiver start and a flex, but not all.
58:20And so we try to kind of middle that in a lot of our rankings and stuff like that.
58:26How many wide receivers you can start, but that definitely is a huge factor.
58:31Like Mark said, being able to start Alave, Watson, Lamb, and Flowers would be very exciting.
58:36I mean, you're probably going to get a spike week from one of those guys every week.
58:41We got the news today that Jaden Reed is out for the year as well, undergoing neck surgery.
58:47So, you know, we've been high on Watson and Golden in the rest season ranks, and I think that's, you know, warranted
58:54and now kind of secure news with Reed out for the season.
58:58All right. Allow me to tech lord back over to the, to the rankings here, and we will get to moves to make.
59:05For the record here, I said I was keeping records.
59:09For the record here, Mark's moves so far after week one, and these were all after week one, and then after week
59:16two, Mark was Cell Scadaboo by Tucker Craft. I was by Travion Henderson by Jeremiah Love.
59:21Jack was by Colson Loveland by Jameson Williams. The people are not happy with Jack.
59:25Daigle was Cell Chuba by Drake London. The people are split with Daigle.
59:30Bad one on Cell Chuba, great one on by Drake London.
59:33All right. Well, Jack is trying to make a comeback here from behind.
59:37Typically, when you're playing from behind, you want to get out there first.
59:41Jack, go ahead with your move to make ahead of week four.
59:45Yeah, I'll take the L on Loveland. I want another month before I take the L on J-Mo.
59:51Just such a volatile player, but I'm going to do one that Mark did last week, which is by Tucker Craft.
59:58He played 98% of snaps in week two against the Vikings.
60:01A lot of that was because they were playing the Vikings.
60:05You need more tight ends out there to block, and then on short rest, he only played 76% of snaps in week three.
60:12I think it makes sense that his snap rate fell considering he's coming off a torn ACL.
60:18They wanted to ramp him up early in the season, but kind of threw that plan out the window after Jaden Reid
60:25went down in week two and with needing more tight end help against the Vikings.
60:29I think that having a long week to get fully healthy and with Jaden Reid out for the season, I think that
60:36now is a great time to buy Tucker Craft.
60:39He had eight targets for a 15.1% target share.
60:42That was okay. He was quiet with 426 and had a couple of drops, but I think that this passing offense is
60:49really going to condense around Christian Watson, Matthew Goldman, Tucker Craft rest of the season with Jaden Reid out.
60:55We've already seen it condense around the wide receivers and now with a week and a half for Craft to get healthy
61:02off the torn ACL, I think that he really gets into the mix here.
61:07The Packers next five games are Bucks, Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Panthers.
61:10So I think that we've got some really positive opportunities for the passing game here.
61:15The run game has been awful so far. I think it makes sense for them to lean even more into the pass.
61:22And so I think that now is a really good time to buy Tucker Craft.
61:27All right. I like that one. And one thing about this stuff is what Daigle mentioned earlier.
61:32If you traded for Tucker Craft and you were thin at wide receiver, you could play or running back.
61:38You could play Tucker Craft in your flex with a Kincaid or with a Kittle or something like that.
61:45And that might be a better option for you.
61:47You know, like when I go to set my lineups every week for start sit, all I do is look at our
61:54projection and like I almost always just play whoever is higher in projection.
61:59I've been checking tight ends also now because I need to, you know, so yeah.
62:03All right. I'll say I'll call Mark in third place for now just because Drake London was such a good hit for Daigle.
62:11So I'll go to Mark next here in third place on the rest of season moves to make.
62:17Mark, what is your move to make ahead of week four?
62:20I'm going to go with by Josh Downs. So Alec Pierce was placed on IR after aggravating his offseason heel and ankle
62:27injury in the first game without Alec Pierce. Josh Downs had a 31% target share for the Colts.
62:33That was against a Texans defense that is, you know, typically very stout against the pass.
62:38He had 11 targets, only caught five of them, but for 77 yards and so, you know, 77 yards on five catches
62:45is a big talking point, I think, for Josh Downs because so far this season he's had an 11.7 yard average depth
62:52of target coming into this season in his career.
62:55That was 7.1 yards. So we've seen Josh Downs be used as more of a vertical threat in this Colts passing offense.
63:02They have Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren there to soak up all of the short targets there for this Colts passing offense.
63:09So I think, you know, the questions that we had surrounding Josh Downs have been answered with an emphatic yes to begin
63:16this year in terms of will he be used, you know, more often he's run 80%, 85%, 85% of routes in the
63:23first three games to start the season. Will he get more downfield targets?
63:27That has also been a yes. So I think this is a great time to buy Josh Downs now ahead of them
63:34playing the Commanders this week in London. Yeah, incredible matchup for Josh Downs here against the Commanders.
63:40I mean, we have Josh Downs ahead of Rasheed Rice, ahead of Malik Neighbors, ahead of Michael Wilson.
63:45People are going to have their eyebrows raised there.
63:48They need him so badly. I mean, so badly do they need Josh Downs to ball.
63:53All right. Diggle had a miss and a hit.
63:56Drake London, hopefully you guys got him last week.
63:59That window is closed. Diggle, what do you have for the people this week?
64:04I quote you a turbo loss effort to the Hubbard.
64:07So I'm taking a turbo win and washing the whole board so far with Drake London this week, a little bit more concerning.
64:14Like I said, I'm trying to buy players whose perceptions have dipped a little bit since their preseason ranking right now, even though we understand their ceiling.
64:23And I hear the concern, especially after watching them on primetime on Monday night about the Eagle struggles on offense.
64:29But unlike last year, I will say the running game isn't the struggle.
64:33Like the offensive line is just fine. By all accounts, they're above average in a lot of the advanced metrics you look at.
64:41And like Mark said, Saquon Barkley is still proven very explosive.
64:44The issue has been in the passing game and it is a new, progressive, and evolving offense that Jalen Hurts and everyone
64:51are still just learning within the first month under Sean Mannion.
64:55So far, the Eagles passing game, 20-15 EPA per pass, 28th in passing success rate.
65:00It's something that I can at least tell myself they'll figure out, especially since under center right now, Jalen Hurts is only 4-14 for 6.5 yards per attempt.
65:09So since the running game is not broken, for an offense I still believe in long term, I would like to buy
65:16Saquon Barkley significantly lower right now than where he was being drafted just three weeks ago.
65:21Yes. You can go back. I gave my take on the Barkley stuff earlier.
65:25I guess I'm just more worried than Daigle that the Eagles are in big trouble, like, you know, long term on offense.
65:32They play the Rams this week, then Jaguars, then Panthers, then Cowboys.
65:36Yeah. It's been a struggle to watch Barkley the last two years.
65:40You're not having it. I just, I've had a lot of him, I had him in some really high-stakes stuff last year
65:47and I'm in some really high-stakes stuff. I watched, like, Saquon Barkley on my hands and knees the last two years, like, begging him to do something.
65:56It is, it is, it's a tough watch. It's been, it's been a tough watch.
66:00We needed, I think it was 1.4 points in the second half out of Barkley on Monday night against the Bears and
66:07he got, like, 1.32 or something like that. Yes, I need to Daigle in my ear telling me everything's going to be okay because didn't seem like it.
66:16Okay, my moves to make so far, as I said, I've been by Travion, by Jeremiah.
66:21Love, this week, I was tempted to say by Joe Burrow because I think that they have not hit their final form yet.
66:29Like, offensive line is actually good this year. Burrow's healthy, Chase is healthy, T.
66:33Higgins is healthy. They've had tough matchups so far.
66:36They're ready to just go nuts. But, you know, training for quarterbacks is a really hard thing to do.
66:42So I wanted to do something a little bit more actionable.
66:46I will go sell Malik neighbors. And I know you're going to be selling low.
66:51JJ McCarthy is where wide receiver play goes to die.
66:54Justin Jefferson yards per target separated by quarterback. Nick Mullins, 10.8 yards per target when throwing at Justin Jefferson.
67:00Cousins, 10.5. Darnold, 10.0. Wentz, 9.9. JJ McCarthy, 5.7.
67:03Like, can't even get the ball to Justin Jefferson.
67:06And so maybe you could say, well, it's going to be Jameis though, Adam.
67:10There might be some arm issues on Jameis. Like, the zip on the ball isn't there.
67:15Even if it is, this Boomer coaching staff wants to hide Jameis.
67:19They're probably going to want to hide JJ McCarthy also.
67:22They're not going to let Jameis do what we want him to do, which is yolo the ball over the field.
67:29Not worry about pick sixes. Not worry about turnovers.
67:32Give Malik neighbors tons of chances. So, I understand you'd be selling low on Malik neighbors.
67:37One way you could try to sell them on this is the schedule.
67:41I mean, they have an awesome schedule next three games.
67:44Cardinals, Commanders, and Saints. In theory, those are three great spots for Malik neighbors.
67:49And maybe you want to wait for him to have a good game if you are going to start Malik neighbors.
67:56And yeah, I'm not even sure Malik neighbors looked or felt 100% off the knee thing either.
68:01So, that's just another confounding factor there. All right, that is going to do it for another edition of the rest of season top 150 show.
68:09Appreciate you all. Appreciate you all being here. If you like this free show and you found some value, do us a
68:16favor, hit the subscribe button here on YouTube. Our NFL draft kit.
68:20You will have access to the rest of season top 150, Thorman's weekly rankings, the redraft trade calculator for Mark, for Daigle,
68:27for Jack, for producer Ryan, producer Luke, I'm Adam.
68:30Good luck, everybody.
