Week 9 Buy Low & Sell High TRADE Targets + Worry-O-Meter! (11/4 Fantasy Football Podcast)

The source mentions having A.J. Brown and Omari and Hampton on the same team and notes 'We're not doing so great,' indicating the team with both players is underperforming despite having a top-tier receiver.

On the Worry-O-Meter, AJ Brown is ranked as the most worried player (0-100 scale), indicating significant concern about his performance or role.

Alec Pierce's big play rate has collapsed from 14.3% last year to 4.3% this year, which is putrid; his yards after catch are inflated by a low average depth of target (dot is one), making him a limited fantasy asset despite potential target volume.

Primary backup to Love during his absence; averaged just shy of 11 PPR points in the two games Love missed, significantly outproducing Tyler Algier (6.5-7.5 PPR). In the second quarter of recent action, Knight played 16 snaps to Algier's four, establishing clear snap share dominance. Source recommends adding him and not letting him go unrostered.

On most dropped list after concussion; roster ownership fell from 55% to 49%; concussions typically result in zero-to-one-week absence, but this situation appears more uncertain.

Aaron Glenn praised Allen as 'a beast,' suggesting he is a capable backup or secondary option in the Jets running back rotation.

In a trade comparison, Braylon Allen for Omari and Hampton is evaluated as favoring Allen, with the caveat that if Brees Hall is taking over the job, the preference for Allen is even stronger. This suggests Allen has more secure usage than Hampton.

Aaron Glenn confirmed as the lead back, stating 'Brees Hall is our guy,' establishing him as the primary running back.

The source (Jamie) identifies Breece Hall as a sell-low candidate in the trade targets segment. While limited detail is provided in the transcript, the source explicitly states 'sell... Brees Hall' as part of the recap of trade targets.

Since week four, Brenton Strange ranks second among tight ends in target per route run rate, behind only TJ Hockenson. The source recommends him as a good streaming tight end option for Jacksonville vs. Baltimore.

Getting a ton of targets except for last week when Trevor Lawrence had only 14 pass attempts; source notes Ravens gave up 4 catches, 86 yards, and a touchdown to Kincaid last week, so the matchup is not necessarily one to avoid.

Source ranks him as a decent start but not significantly different from waiver-wire options like Chico Coutinho or Eli Raridon; another source suggests there's a better outcome for him, particularly noting that Raridon faces a tough Packers matchup and Strange's low target share last week was anomalous.

The source is concerned about Brenton Strange's route volume on the Jaguars; he has as many games with two or three targets as he does games with more than five targets. The source prefers other tight ends in this matchup because they want route volume and doesn't want to use Strange given the Jaguars' uncertain pass volume.

Bucky Irving has 55% of the Buccaneers' red zone touchdowns (tied for highest in NFL with Tuba Hubbard) and a 52% red zone touch share (up to 61% over the past month); he is running back six in red zone touch share. This is a dramatic shift from last year when he had only seven touches inside the 10-yard line all season; he already has six touchdowns inside the 10 this year. He is a clear bell cow with 19 of 25 running back touches (70%+ snap share) and the offense runs through him.

Bucky Irving has been matchup-dependent this year; his next two games are against top-five run defenses (Chicago and Detroit) with a bye in between. He has destroyed weaker defenses (Dallas, Carolina, Atlanta) recently but struggled against Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Minnesota earlier in the season.

The source identifies Caleb Douglas as a buy alongside Jalen Coker, though the specific reasoning for Douglas is cut off in the transcript. The inclusion in the buy list suggests the source sees value in acquiring Douglas.

The source expresses skepticism about Caleb Douglas and rookie wide receivers in general, stating 'I don't think there's a single rookie wide receiver other than Carnell Tate that I feel like I'm going to be confident putting in my lineup on a weekly basis.' When asked about trading Isaiah Likely for Sam Laporta and Caleb Douglas, the source is willing to make that trade, suggesting Douglas has limited standalone value. The source also notes that Douglas will only be confident to start 'two weeks every month' and those are the weeks the Lions are bad.

The source argues that Carnell Tate could be a buy-low candidate coming off a bad game and a bye. The source notes Tate has arguably the best schedule of any player, with upcoming opponents ranking 27th, 26th, 27th, 21st, 29th, 7th, 22nd, and 9th against wide receivers. However, the source acknowledges potential fool's gold: Jacksonville has two of the next three games, and while Travis Hunter is a very good cornerback who shadowed Nico Collins well, wide receivers are still putting up numbers against the Jaguars. Detroit has been much better the last three weeks and may be healthier by week five. Despite these caveats, the source believes Tate could get 14 fantasy points per game (around RB20 production) and is 'not like don't think he's going to win you your league. But can he get 14 fantasy points per game? I think he could.' The source also predicts Tate will be the best rookie wide receiver by season's end.

Listed as a Worryometer Wednesday topic for Week 9 analysis.

Second most traded player; source is buying. Preferred over Ollie Gordon in a direct comparison.

The source identifies Chase Brown as a buy-low candidate despite five straight games with no more than 13 carries and no touchdown since week one. The rationale: Brown is averaging six targets per game (five targets per game excluding the game Jamar Chase left with injury), and if he catches 80% of those targets, that projects to four catches per game or 68 catches per season. The source believes this is the low point for Brown's value, with Atlanta this week giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, and expects his value to only increase from here.

Chase Brown is ranked ahead of Chris Rodriguez (if Basil Tootin is out) in the source's week 9 rankings for Jacksonville vs. Baltimore.

Moved up on waiver wire with potential for significant opportunity if Rashaad White is unavailable; beat writer John Shipley suggests Rodriguez could have a big opportunity in front of him if he gets the chance to play; would be a borderline top-20 running back if he starts.

If Basil Tootin does not play, Chris Rodriguez is ranked in the top-15 range for Jacksonville vs. Baltimore, positioned right behind Chase Brown and Jonah Coleman. The source notes he drops off pretty hard after that tier.

In a trade comparison, DJ Moore for Josh Jacobs is evaluated as favoring the Moore side 'for now,' with the caveat that if Jacobs avoids further suspension or trade, the source would prefer Jacobs over Moore, suggesting Moore's current value advantage is conditional on Jacobs' risk factors.

D'Andre Swift has 27 touches inside the 10-yard line this year (compared to James Cook's 27 all of last year when he was RB9) and 9 touchdowns inside the 10; his red zone touch share has jumped from 23% last year to 53% this year—a completely different role. The source notes the Bears offense clearly feels the best among the Swift/Javante Williams/Kyren Williams group, and Swift should maintain significant work even when Mononga returns.

D'Andre Swift's role may be cut into by Mononga's return; in weeks one through three when Swift played his normal snap share, he had 11 touches inside the 10 to Mononga's three, but Mononga had seven touches inside the 10 in week four when Swift was benched for fumbling. The source expects Mononga to reduce Swift's production by 10-15% but notes uncertainty about Mononga's return timeline and questions whether this is peak value for Swift given his 4.1 yards per carry efficiency.

In a start-sit comparison, the source prefers Dallas Goedert against the Giants over Brenton Strange, citing the Giants' potential for high pass volume (40-45 drop-backs) and Goedert's superior route volume.

The source notes that Montgomery could be back this week but expresses uncertainty about whether he will reclaim the lead role: 'we don't know that Montgomery is getting the lead rollback,' suggesting his return status and role are unclear.

The source prefers to sell low on Derrick Henry rather than buy low on Zay Flowers. The rationale: Henry has three straight games with 60 scrimmage yards or fewer. The source argues that whoever the Ravens add at quarterback won't open up rushing lanes for him, the team will lose a lot of games (and Henry is bad in losses), and they won't score many touchdowns—all of which Henry needs to produce. The source explicitly states 'I'd be more likely to sell low on Derrick Henry, whereas I'm trying to buy low on Zay Flowers.'

Facing one of the toughest matchups of the week against the Packers, making him a less attractive option compared to alternatives like Brenton Strange.

Hunter Henry's status is uncertain according to Mike Vrabel; his availability for the upcoming game is not confirmed, which creates uncertainty for fantasy purposes.

The source argues for selling low on Isaiah Likely, expressing concern that target volume will decline with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback compared to what it was with Jameis Winston or Jackson Dart. McCarthy has targeted Likely at a 13% and 14.3% target-per-route-run rate (translating to a 16% target share in five quarters), while also throwing frequently to Malachi Fields. The source notes the bye week is now over, providing a selling point, and suggests pointing to season-long scoring average to sell Likely as a top-four or top-five tight end. While the source believes Likely will remain a starter, he won't be the difference-maker he was early in the season.

In a start-sit comparison, the source prefers Isaiah Likely over Brenton Strange, indicating Likely has better matchup or usage prospects.

The source identifies Jalen Coker as a buy, noting he has had 'a couple of bad games recently and mediocre games recently' but scored a touchdown last week. Despite recent underperformance, the source believes 'there's plenty of love about the situation' and that Coker will 'get his opportunities as targets.' The Panthers are making offensive adjustments and the offensive line is a work in progress, but the source maintains confidence in Coker's target opportunities.

The source (Jamie) identifies Jalen Coker as a buy-low candidate in the trade targets segment. While limited detail is provided in the transcript, the source explicitly states 'Jamie says by Jalen Coker' as part of the recap of trade targets.

In a start-sit comparison, Jalen Coker against the Broncos is preferred over Parker Washington, indicating better matchup prospects.

James Cook had 21 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown plus two catches for 21 yards against Baltimore's defense, which allows 3.8 yards per carry (eighth-best against running backs) and second-fewest receiving yards per game. The source notes it was a very good game but not exactly the easiest for Cook given Baltimore's defensive strength.

Suffered a five- to six-week injury; must miss weeks 9, 10, 11, 12 and could return in week 13, but team may sit him through bye week 14 if not fully healthy. Playoff schedule is favorable, but unclear if team will rush him back given he's a first-round pick.

On injured reserve with a 5-to-6-week injury timeline; will miss weeks 9, 10, 11, 12 and could return in week 13 before the team's bye in week 14.

In a start-sit comparison, the source prefers Joe Burrow as a QB1 option, indicating strong projection for the week.

Starting quarterback for Jacksonville this week following Tyler Huntley's season-ending injury; relatively unknown player with limited public recognition.

In a trade comparison, Jonah Coleman for Omari and Hampton is evaluated as strongly favoring Coleman, with the source saying 'No way. Take Coleman, right? No way,' indicating high conviction that Coleman is the better asset.

The source argues for buying high on Jonah Coleman, citing the Broncos' fantastic second-half schedule and a huge gap between Coleman's and J.K. Dobbins' ability with the football. With R.J. Harvey and Tyler Bidet both on IR, the source believes Coleman will be established as the clear RB1 before they return. Coleman played 66% of snaps last week, more than Harvey or Dobbins have played in any game this season. The source projects Coleman as a top-20 running back this week and rest of season, potentially moving into the top 15 within a game or two. When asked whether he'd rather have Derrick Henry or Jonah Coleman rest of season, the source chooses Coleman.

Jonah Coleman is ranked ahead of Chris Rodriguez (if Basil Tootin is out) and Parker Washington in the source's week 9 rankings. He is preferred over Parker Washington in start-sit comparisons for Jacksonville vs. Baltimore.

Jonah Coleman has 46% of the Colts' red zone touches and 50% of inside-the-10-yard-line touches in three games played (weeks two, seven, eight); he has eight touches inside the 10-yard line in just three games—more than Ramondre Stevenson, Chris Rodriguez, Cam Skadaboo, the entire Minnesota backfield, or Jalen Warren and Rico Dattel combined all year. The source believes he is an endearing running back who does everything a coach wants and won't give up the job unless injured or the team trades for Jonathan Taylor.

Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season outlook improves significantly after week 12; the Colts' schedule shifts from a brutal first half (Chiefs twice, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks, Cardinals) to a much easier second half (Panthers, Raiders twice, Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Patriots). This schedule relief should benefit Coleman's volume and scoring potential.

Held to 8 carries for 23 yards by Jacksonville's defense last week, demonstrating Jacksonville's run defense effectiveness even without their interior defensive lineman Devon Hamilton playing significant snaps.

On the Worry-O-Meter, Jonathan Taylor is ranked as the least worried among the four players (AJ Brown, Parker Washington, Zay Flowers, Jonathan Taylor), indicating the source is not particularly concerned about his performance.

In a start-sit comparison, Jordan Love is not preferred over Trevor Lawrence, indicating the source favors Lawrence's matchup or projection.

Included in a dynasty trade offer alongside Josh Jacobs (Jacobs and Mason for Deshaun Stribbling and a first-round pick), which source rejected, suggesting limited confidence in Mason's standalone value.

The source evaluates Josh Jacobs in multiple trade scenarios across CBS leagues. Jacobs wins trades against Nico Collins, Ali Gordon, and DJ Moore; loses to Justin Jefferson. The source notes conditional preference: 'If Jacobs doesn't get suspended any further, I'd take him over Nico Collins and DJ Moore,' but factors in potential suspension or trade risk when assessing his value relative to other players.

Third most traded player; source has significant concern that he may not finish the season, citing potential trade or suspension risk. In a dynasty league, source rejected a trade offer of Josh Jacobs and Jordan Mason for Deshaun Stribbling and a first-round pick, instead counter-offering only Stribbling for Jacobs to take a chance on him finishing the season.

Josh Jacobs has 88% of the Raiders' red zone touches since returning and is averaging 6 red zone touches per game with 15 PPR points inside the 10-yard line; he leads the NFL in red zone touches per game (6.0), ahead of Jameer Gibbs (5.9), Kenneth Walker (5.1), Derek Henry (4.9), Javante Williams (4.6), and D'Andre Swift (4.5).

Had 8 targets last week, indicating elevated target volume; source notes he usually gets 3-4 targets per week, making last week's 8 targets an anomaly worth monitoring.

Listed as a Worryometer Wednesday topic for Week 9 analysis.

Justin Jefferson for Josh Jacobs is evaluated as favoring Jefferson. The source notes Jefferson is the third or fourth most traded player and will be discussed on the worry-o-meter later, indicating elevated trade activity and concern around his situation.

Justin Jefferson's worry-o-meter is 55, reflecting significant concern; he has posted 55 or fewer yards in three of five games (one game left early at 12% snap share), and Kyler Murray's poor play is limiting his upside. The source was less worried before week eight but notes his postgame reaction signaled urgency for the Cardinals offense.

In a five-player sit-two scenario with Parker Washington, Nico Collins, Jonah Coleman, Luther Burden, and T. Higgins, the source recommends sitting Luther Burden along with Parker Washington, indicating concern about his matchup or usage.

In a start-sit comparison, Malik Willis is not preferred over Trevor Lawrence, indicating the source favors Lawrence's matchup or projection.

In a trade comparison, Matthew Golden for Josh Jacobs is evaluated as favoring the Golden side, indicating Golden is preferred over Jacobs in current trade value.

The source (Jamie) identifies Mike Washington Jr. as a sell-low candidate in the trade targets segment. While limited detail is provided in the transcript, the source explicitly states 'sell Mike Washington Jr.' as part of the recap of trade targets.

In a trade comparison, Nico Collins for Josh Jacobs favors the Collins side. The source later notes that if Jacobs avoids further suspension, he would take Jacobs over Collins, suggesting Collins is currently valued higher but the gap is conditional on Jacobs' legal/roster status.

In a trade comparison, Nico Collins side wins against Josh Jacobs, indicating Collins is viewed as the more valuable asset.

In start-sit comparisons, Nico Collins is consistently preferred over Parker Washington, indicating stronger matchup or usage prospects.

Most traded player in the week; source is selling, primarily because he was picked up off waivers with the hope of having other players on the roster, not because of declining talent or performance concerns.

Facing Jacksonville's defense in a game where Jacksonville's interior defensive lineman Devon Hamilton (who plays about 50% of snaps normally) played only 18% of snaps last week; source notes Jacksonville held Jonathan Taylor to 8 carries for 23 yards even without Hamilton playing much, suggesting their run defense scheme may be effective regardless of personnel availability.

The source mentions Omar Cooper as a potential breakout candidate among rookie wide receivers, noting that 'another couple of big games from Omar Cooper. He might run away with it' in terms of being the best rookie wide receiver by season's end. When asked who is currently the number one rookie wide receiver in fantasy points per game, the source responds 'Omar Cooper,' indicating Cooper is leading the rookie WR class in per-game scoring.

In multiple start-sit comparisons, Parker Washington is consistently deprioritized. The source recommends sitting Washington over Nico Collins, Luther Burden, and T. Higgins in a five-player sit-two scenario. Washington is also ranked as the second-most worried player on the Worry-O-Meter (after AJ Brown), indicating concern about his performance.

Listed as a Worryometer Wednesday topic for Week 9 analysis.

The source expresses concern about Parker Washington's four touchdowns this year, noting they've been spectacular but worrying about the Jaguars blowing out teams on their schedule. The Jaguars' next four games are Baltimore, Tennessee, Giants, and Tennessee. The source notes the Jaguars are 25th in pass rate, meaning when they pull away in games, they don't throw much. This limits Washington's upside in blowout scenarios despite his recent touchdown production.

Despite recent concerns about blowout scenarios limiting his upside, the source argues Parker Washington is still a buy-low candidate. The rationale centers on Trevor Lawrence's quality as a quarterback—the source notes Lawrence has been pulled early in eight of the last 15 Jaguars games, missing a total of 89 minutes, suggesting the team will remain competitive and keep throwing. The source states 'he's too good. He's awesome. And he'll get his production' and frames this as a great opportunity to buy low on Washington despite four of the last five games not being that good.

The source has Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence back-to-back in quarterback rankings with less than a half-point apart in projections, suggesting they are essentially interchangeable for week 9.

Listed as questionable; expected to be unavailable or limited, creating opportunity for Chris Rodriguez; source suggests having a backup plan.

The source identifies Sam Laporta as a good buy-low candidate. The rationale: Laporta's last two games have been against Minnesota and Green Bay, which rank number one and number two against tight ends. The source expects better times ahead. Laporta had a 20% target share in week eight after a 5% target share in week seven, suggesting increased involvement. When asked what he'd want to give up Isaiah Likely for Laporta, the source says he'd accept Laporta and Caleb Douglas for Likely, or even just Laporta and a worse wide receiver two for a better wide receiver two.

Listed as a Worryometer Wednesday topic for Week 9 analysis.

Has been great all year; Commanders held him in check last week despite missing two starting defensive tackles, suggesting the Commanders' run defense scheme is effective.

In a start-sit comparison, Stefan Diggs against the Rams is preferred over Parker Washington, indicating better matchup prospects.

In a start-sit comparison, the source prefers Travis Kelce against the Jets over Brenton Strange, citing Kelce's superior route volume potential and the Chiefs' ability to drop back frequently in this matchup.

The source notes that Trevor Lawrence has been pulled early in eight of the last 15 Jaguars games, missing a total of 89 minutes. This stat is used to support the argument that Lawrence is too good and will get his production, and by extension, that Parker Washington will benefit from Lawrence's quality play and continued passing volume. The source also mentions that Lawrence is probably a top-five MVP candidate, suggesting elite quarterback play.

The source ranks Lawrence as QB6 with five quarterbacks ahead of him (Burrow, Purdy, Goff, Mahomes, Allen), making him a must-start quarterback. In Jacksonville vs. Baltimore, Lawrence is preferred over Dak Prescott at the Colts, Jaden Daniels against the Rams, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers at New England. However, Jacksonville's tendency to throw fewer passes in blowout wins (23, 29, and 17 passes in three games won by 24+ points) could limit volume if they win by 14+ points as 10.5-point favorites.

This is an MVP spotlight game for Trevor Lawrence against Houston; if he comes out with a big performance, it wouldn't shock the source, especially if Tune is not available. The source suggests Liam Cohen seems like the type of coach to give Lawrence a big game opportunity.

This is an MVP spotlight game for Lawrence; source suggests he could have a big performance and wouldn't be shocked if that leads to concentrated targets for Brenton Strange.

Out for the season; initially thought to be a few weeks but confirmed as full-season absence.

Tyler Warren is a decent PPR play as long as he stays healthy; the source projects around 10 targets per week, which supports PPR value despite a low worry-o-meter rating of 10-15.

In a trade comparison, Woody Marks for Omari and Hampton is evaluated as favoring Marks. The source prefers Marks even though Montgomery could be back this week, suggesting Marks has more secure usage than Hampton.

In a start-sit comparison, Zach Charbonnet is not preferred over Derek Henry, indicating the source favors Henry's matchup or usage.

Listed as a Worryometer Wednesday topic for Week 9 analysis.

On the Worry-O-Meter, Zay Flowers is ranked as the second-most worried player, indicating concern about his performance or role.

The source argues for buying low on Zay Flowers despite Tyler Huntley being out for the year. The rationale: the source refuses to believe the Ravens will stick with Joe Flacco or unknown backup quarterbacks for the rest of the season, expecting a move for a better quarterback after the Thursday game. Supporting data shows that wide receivers on bottom-five passing offenses over the last three seasons have still produced; Zay Flowers averaged 14.7 PPR points per game last year on a team ranked fifth-worst in gross passing yards per game. The source also notes Flowers had a great game with Tyler Huntley, catching a big play at the line of scrimmage, suggesting he can produce regardless of quarterback quality. The source prefers to buy low on Flowers rather than sell low on Derrick Henry.

Zay Flowers had zero touches in the Jacksonville vs. Baltimore game, making it difficult to recommend him over running backs with 20+ carry potential. The source ranks him at WR24 and notes that projections do not compute for him. He is characterized as a boom-or-bust play with upside potential but is not preferred over Derek Henry or Jonah Coleman in start-sit comparisons.

Had zero touches in the game discussed; source notes he has a better chance of creating a long play than running backs with 20-touch potential, making him fine to start if upside is needed but comparable to Parker Washington in a boom-or-bust profile.

Source would start Zay Flowers over Henry in full PPR format, indicating preference for his upside in that scoring system.