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Week 4 Recap: Did Gordon Prove Us Wrong? Pickens Struggles Continue, & More! (10/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 5 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 5, 2026
Published
Mon, October 5, 2026
35
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Chuba HubbardColston LovelandDrake MayeEmanuel WilsonGeorge PickensZach CharbonnetZay FlowersBlake CorumBraelon AllenBryce YoungBucky IrvingCade OttonCarnell TateCeeDee Lamb
Player analysis

Player insights

35

Blake Corum

NegativeUsage22:41

Corum is not receiving significant carries, as the Rams are treating Kyren Williams as the clear number one running back.

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Braelon Allen

PositiveUsage29:37

Allen played 94% of the snaps for the Jets in their most recent game, indicating a massive workload share.

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Bryce Young

PositiveProjection8:16

Bryce Young has recorded three good games out of four, including a season-high 25.5 fantasy points in Week 4. He is diagnosing defenses well, getting the ball out quickly, and attacking intermediate and vertical areas of the field, which helps mitigate offensive line concerns.

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Bucky Irving

NegativeRole99:15

Bucky Irving is the only Buccaneers player with potential to be startable, though the team has recently compartmentalized the backfield and moved away from him, making his path to consistent volume uncertain.

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Cade Otton

PositiveUsage97:30

Cade Otton is playing poorly but continues to receive a high target rate, including a first-three target rate that is nearly equal to Jalen McMillan's on the season, which is an inefficient use of the offense.

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Carnell Tate

PositiveUsage25:40

Tate has established himself as the Titans' clear WR1, boasting the seventh-highest first-read target rate in the NFL; he commanded a 44% target share and 76% of air yards this week, proving he can anchor an offense.

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CeeDee Lamb

NegativeValue43:01

CeeDee Lamb is considered an obvious league winner, and Lamar Jackson regrets not drafting him at his ADP, noting he is now a top-five fantasy player.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveUsage10:42

Chuba Hubbard is positioned well for fantasy production, particularly when the Panthers play with a lead, as he receives a high volume of the team's work.

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PositiveValue43:50

Chuba Hubbard was a major draft regret because Lamar Jackson overrated Jonathan Brooks and failed to capitalize on Hubbard's depressed draft cost.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeUsage19:30

Loveland's route participation rate remains concerning, failing to exceed 70% in any of the past three games; he is being asked to block more due to the Bears' struggles at left tackle, which limits his fantasy scoring potential.

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PositiveUsage31:32

Colston Loveland saw a significant increase in usage in Week 4, recording a 35% first-read target rate, which is a major jump from his previous 10-14% range, potentially signaling a larger role moving forward.

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Dalton Kincaid

NegativeUsage29:21

Kincaid's route participation is a concern, as he only ran 54.1% of routes in the most recent game.

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Drake Maye

PositiveProjection33:22

Maye is a startable QB1 due to his rushing ability, which ranks only behind Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks; his fantasy outlook will improve further once AJ Brown returns to the lineup.

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NegativeProjection40:16

Drake Maye showed improvement in accuracy on throws of 10+ air yards without pressure, but there is concern regarding his upcoming matchup against a strong Raiders pass rush.

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Emanuel Wilson

NegativeValue35:03

Wilson is a temporary fantasy option until Zach Charbonnet returns; once Charbonnet is healthy, Wilson's role is expected to diminish significantly.

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NegativeUsage37:45

Emmanuel Wilson has a 20.8% avoid rate on his carries, which is slightly higher than Charbonnet's, though both are operating on small sample sizes.

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George Kittle

PositiveBreakout48:41

George Kittle is performing like a league winner, especially with the potential for increased volume if Mike Evans misses time.

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George Pickens

PositiveProjection54:37

George Pickens is viewed as an elite receiver who will have big games, despite some early-season frustration with negated plays and drops.

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PositiveUsage102:22

George Pickens is struggling, with his target share dropping to 7% last week; he is currently being used primarily as a 'sacrificial X' receiver running clear-out routes for CeeDee Lamb, making him a risky start.

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Jalen McMillan

NegativeValue98:20

Jalen McMillan is a player to avoid, with Lamar Jackson stating they would be devastated to have him on any fantasy team right now given the current state of the Buccaneers' passing offense.

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Jalon Daniels

NegativeProjection94:57

The passing game is difficult to trust because Jalen Daniels lacks the necessary anticipation and timing; most of his second-half plays were off-schedule, and the offense is expected to struggle until Baker Mayfield returns.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveUsage16:32

Despite a 15.7% target share in Week 4, Jamison Williams remains a player worth holding due to his massive upside and high volume of catchable air yards. He ranks seventh in the league in catchable air yards on the year.

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Kalif Raymond

PositiveUsage20:25

Despite being a popular waiver wire add, Raymond's usage is inconsistent; his first-read target rate dropped to 9% this week, and Lamar Jackson hopes he fades away to allow more consistent production from other drafted players.

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Keaton Mitchell

NegativeUsage29:59

Mitchell is part of a three-headed backfield committee where he, Hampton, and Vidal each played roughly 35% of snaps; while he saw 15 touches, the committee approach makes the backfield a fantasy nightmare.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveValue46:24

Kenneth Walker is viewed as one of the best picks of the draft, with Lamar Jackson regretting passing on him due to injury concerns that have not materialized.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveUsage21:20

Williams is seeing an evolution in his role, recording 20 targets over the past two games and back-to-back games with 40+ air yards; he is being utilized as a primary pass-catcher rather than just a pass-protector.

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Malik Nabers

PositiveUsage28:24

Malik Nabers appears healthy despite a shoulder injury he is managing. His usage in Week 4, including route depth and releases off the line of scrimmage, was phenomenal, and he remains a strong fantasy asset.

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Ollie Gordon II

NegativeUsage50:54

Ollie Gordon saw significant usage as the lead back for the Dolphins, but Lamar Jackson remains skeptical of his long-term fantasy value, noting his production was heavily reliant on two big runs.

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Sam LaPorta

PositiveUsage18:31

Sam LaPorta is a major winner in Detroit's offense, benefiting from a setup that allows him to run a high volume of routes and receive significant target volume. He is a recommended trade target.

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Sean Tucker

NegativeRole98:37

Sean Tucker is occasionally used in the run game, but his potential role as a goal-line back is a source of frustration for fantasy managers, as the team's backfield usage remains inconsistent.

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Tyreek Hill

PositiveValue24:00

Tyreek Hill is expected to sign with a team, likely the Chiefs, in the next few days and is considered the number one waiver wire priority for the week.

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Zach Charbonnet

PositiveRole37:08

The team views Charbonnet as the primary back when healthy, and he has demonstrated high efficiency since entering the NFL, ranking 8th out of 33 qualifiers in fantasy points per touch.

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NegativeUsage37:42

Zach Charbonnet has struggled with efficiency, as 21% of his carries have resulted in zero or negative yards.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveUsage0:49

Zay Flowers has been highly efficient, running 45 routes with Lamar Jackson this year and scoring 65.3 PPR fantasy points on those specific routes.

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NegativeValue41:58

Zay Flowers is identified as a regret for not drafting, with Lamar Jackson admitting he was wrong to label him overpriced during the draft process.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

873
0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
0:03Can you believe this? He had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
0:07Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
0:10He's just gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
0:15Coming up on Beyond the Boxscore, Drake Maye, big game.
0:17Is he back? How good is Tedrow McMillan? Can we trust Bryce Young?
0:21Rest of season. Is Emmanuel Wilson going to be a staple of this offense going forward?
0:26Ali Gordon, is he going to be a staple of this offense going forward?
0:30Keon Coleman, is he going to be a staple if DJ Moore is out in Week 5?
0:34We'll talk about those guys. We'll recap last night's game.
0:37Players we regret not drafting. I'm going to tell you that there were nine wide receivers who ran 45 or more routes in Week 4 alone.
0:44Okay? Just think about that. That's like a lot of routes for a game, but it happens.
0:49Zay Flowers has run 45 routes with Lamar Jackson this year, and he has scored 65.3 PPR fantasy points on those 45 routes.
0:56Like, could you imagine if someone scored that in Week 4?
0:59It's insane. Essentially what you're saying is that you will have to grow your beard out post-wedding for a long, long time.
1:05Yes, it's going to be a, if I was a rich man, I'm going to be like Tevye or whatever it is.
1:11I honestly think you look better with the beard, so I'm excited to see it.
1:15Not a three-month beard. You don't know that. You don't know that because you never tried it.
1:20You ever seen the movie The Heartbreak Kid? No.
1:23Ben Stiller? Can we pull up him with a beard?
1:26Jacob, no, you've never seen that? No idea. Let's find the image of him with the beard in Heartbreak Kid.
1:31Anyway, what's up, guys? How we doing? Good. Good.
1:34That Flower stat is crazy. I'm putting together a Beyond the Box score episode looking at the biggest busts in fantasy.
1:40Ooh. And he has, like, as many points as Lad McConkie and Emeka Ibuka combined in, like, one game.
1:45And it's like, those guys were drafted in the same range.
1:48You know what I mean? There's still many pivotal hits or misses where he could have, I mean, a lot of people
1:54liked both or all three of those receivers and just landed on the wrong one.
1:59It's so brutal. Yeah. I was thinking about that because one of the questions we have for today is, who do you regret not drafting?
2:06And that's where, for me, Zay Flowers, I only have Zay Flowers in one league.
2:10And truth be told, it was a league that I share with a co-manager.
2:14I don't even know if I would have drafted him.
2:17Because, yeah, I liked McConkie. And I didn't really draft Tedrow McMillan either.
2:20I just made the wrong choices at that part in the draft.
2:24And some of it not, you know, really within, like, it's not all Ladin McConkie's fault.
2:28It's obviously not all Emekai Buka's fault. I also think about Bejal Tootin, you know.
2:32Bejal Tootin versus Jadarian Price is one that I just sweated.
2:35I was like, oh, I can't figure out who I like here.
2:39And then ultimately, I was Tootin originally. And then I was like, I think I like Price better.
2:44I think Tootin has more to overcome. And that's just, like, a horrific mistake.
2:48And, oh, man, the logic can be there. It's not always your fault.
2:51Well, sometimes sports happens, you know. But these decisions, they could be, they could really change your fantasy outcomes in such big ways.
2:58Yeah. Dan, yeah, it's 3-1, first place. I was going to say, we're combined, what, 7-1 here as a podcasting trio here with the Chiefs and the Giants.
3:06I don't, I mean, look, I was in the dumps after the Jackson Dart injury.
3:10I couldn't really come back from it. And this season will always be bittersweet for me because I'll always be thinking, what if?
3:17But it's fun to watch a team that actually can compete in the fourth quarter, that actually has good coaching and good
3:23special teams and all the little things that help you win football games.
3:26They may be beating bad teams. Every team's a bad team.
3:29They're like, who's good in the NFL? So, like, beat who you play.
3:33Keep it going. And to be quite frank, outside of the Cowboys, I'm not that worried about the Giants division.
3:39I think the Eagles are trash football team. The Eagles are missing, like, 10 starters yesterday.
3:43Oh, my God. They get to finally complain about injuries.
3:46What about every other fan base that said that over the years?
3:49And the Eagles fans have bashed them for that.
3:52Oh, all the crap I heard about Eli Manning when he played with those offensive lines.
3:56All right. All right. All right. We're getting off the rails.
4:00I got to reel me back in. This is what I'm going to look like in three months after the season.
4:06Not good. I honestly don't mind that. But the hair, you can still get haircuts, by the way.
4:11It's just the beard. That, I think, was the bet with Heath.
4:14It was. It was. So, before we get into last night's game, I have a great team name.
4:19Okay. Inspired by our email exchanges about Ali Gordon.
4:22The Ali G Show. Yeah. Is that not original?
4:24No clue. I mean, no. It's not original at all.
4:27You thought this was great? You emailed us two hours before the show.
4:31Like, I can't wait to tell you guys this team name I thought of.
4:35I mean, it's better than Oil of Olave, of course.
4:37I mean, that's your worst of all time. But you're pinning, you know, at least you're going for a reference that people will understand.
4:44But, I mean, it's not great. It's great. It's not bad.
4:47It's not great. I feel like I stole it unintentionally from people.
4:51So, I'm sorry if you already had that one.
4:53There's no originality. Carolina 32, Detroit 26. Fun game here.
4:56Bryce Young with three good games out of four.
4:58Struggled against Cleveland. But he comes back with 25.5 fantasy points.
5:02Season high, 44% of his passes were in under 2.5 seconds.
5:05Said he still, you know, made plays downfield. And this team passes.
5:08They are, I think, like fifth in pass rate.
5:11They're fifth in pass rate. And they've only had one bad game defensively.
5:14You know, they gave up 59 points week one.
5:17Then three. Then 21. Then 26. They were playing with a lead in this game.
5:21They just, they like to pass. Jacob, what are you seeing from the Panthers?
5:25The Panthers are super fun to watch right now.
5:27Um, this game in particular was funny because they had this massive height advantage.
5:31Um, I, I heard this from, uh, Derek class and on the athletic, he said that on average, their wide receivers and
5:38tight ends were like five and a half inches taller than the DBs Detroit in this game.
5:42Um, and it's just this funny team that they've, they've put around Bryce, obviously with the high disparity here.
5:48Um, they do a lot of really cool stuff.
5:50Uh, they kind of remind me of the chiefs where they're, uh, like mitigating the, the tackle concerns that they have.
5:56Right. With a lot of, um, like pocket manipulation, um, different ways of like setting up rollouts and stuff like that for
6:02Bryce young, getting the ball out quick. Um, because they're, I mean, in week three, they really, really struggled to protect.
6:08Um, they gave up really a bunch of pressure, a bunch of quick pressure.
6:12And in this game, even against Aiden Hutchinson, like they did a pretty dang good job of just, um, setting him up to get the ball out quick.
6:20A few times you see like Jack Campbell just get directly downhill on that right away.
6:25You know what I mean? Um, but generally speaking, I think these plays have worked really well for them in this game.
6:31It was pretty much like hyper concentrated on Ted or McMillan, of course.
6:34Um, and so they're, they're just like one of the most fun teams to watch right now, the super high pass rate over expectation and everything.
6:42And then if they do get the lead, then we can see a big, um, big Chuba Hubbard game.
6:47Like we saw here where he's getting like all of the work and it actually amounted to like a bunch of fantasy points.
6:54So it feels really good. And then the volume is like pretty much all concentrated on like two or three guys too, especially with Coker out.
7:01Yeah. I anticipate Coker coming back after their week five by, so, you know, what would you tell the Ted or McMillan manager?
7:07Try to try to sell them for something massive or just hold on?
7:11I would just hold, I mean, we have a decent stretch even dating back to last year where it's been, I guess, concerning.
7:18He hasn't been produced. McMillan hasn't produced quite to the way that we've seen or that we think that he can when Coker has been healthy.
7:25Coker's really, really good, but his actual target shares haven't dropped off in a super significant way within that split.
7:30Um, I think more than likely we'll see good days ahead for him.
7:34He's just so good. And him and Bryce Young are on the same page.
7:38Um, I think him and Coker and Bryce are all, and Hubbard are all positioned really well for fantasy.
7:43I would just hold if I had them. I think to me, what's most interesting about watching this team is last year,
7:50Jacob and I spent a lot of time on beyond the box score, evaluating the film of this offense.
7:55And there got to a point in season where they pass protected so poorly, specifically had a right guard that we kept talking about.
8:02I think it was Anthony Bradford or that might've been the Seahawks.
8:05This was another, their version of that, that they had to completely change their game plan and become this run first team with Rico Dowdle.
8:12This year, it seems like that's not the case.
8:15They can do what they want to do, at least outside of the Cleveland game.
8:19And I believe a big reason for that is Bryce Young.
8:22He's seeing the field so much better. He's getting the ball quicker.
8:25And it's not just like quick game, quick throws around the line of scrimmage.
8:29He's getting the ball out into the intermediate range of the field.
8:33And I think he has, I saw the stat earlier, something like some of the most 20 yard plus pass, 20 plus
8:39yard passes in the NFL right now. And with him seeing the field, the way he's seeing and his ability to diagnose
8:45things fast, you saw it on the touchdown early in the game.
8:48It in some ways mitigates their offensive line because that is somewhat of a concern for me.
8:53They lost their first round pick Monroe Freeling last night.
8:56I don't know the extent of that injury. They had to go to stone Forsyth at right tackle.
9:01That could be a major issue. If he has to play a lot in my personal opinion, they're going to get healthier tackle.
9:08Cause there's, they started potentially with Moat with a Moten coming back eventually.
9:11Yeah. I think one other tackle, um, but yeah, I don't know the timeline on those, but regardless if Bryce Young is
9:17seeing the field, the way he's seeing it right now, it's not going to matter as much because he's getting the ball
9:24out fast and he's attacking intermediate and vertical areas of the field by diagnosing it pre-snap.
9:28And he's always thrown with, in my opinion, with good touch.
9:31And when he's throwing with anticipation, he's a deadly quarterback because in my opinion, he has the ability to throw the football
9:37with touch and accuracy in these moments. And that are all McMillan, we'll talk about him a little bit more later in our regrets section.
9:44My God, is he a good football player? And it's just like Drake London with him.
9:49It's, it's so hard to defend him. All right.
9:52What do we think about the lions? You know, Jamison Williams with a really good game, six catches, 102 yards on eight
9:58targets, but this is a 15.7% target share for Jamison Williams.
10:01That's his highest since week one, 10 per week.
10:03One of the things that was 20. Where are you?
10:06Jamison Williams. It was target share was 23%. Then 10.5 and 12.9 and 15.7%.
10:10So, you know, um, good game, but I don't know if it was an encouraging game for him.
10:15He also dropped a perfectly thrown deep ball up the sideline.
10:18That would have been a huge play. Uh, anyway, that's maybe the most interesting guy on the team, because I think we
10:24kind of know what we're doing with the others.
10:27For sure. 136 catchable air yards for Jamison Williams in this game.
10:30So that's his second game with over, over a hundred.
10:33There's only a handful of players who have two of those games this year.
10:37Um, he's seventh in the league and catchable air yards on the year.
10:41So I would think it would get better. Right.
10:43I mean, I, it comes down to him basically.
10:46I feel like, um, I've been, I've been pretty stubborn about him and my life.
10:50I do a rest of season rankings update every week and every week people want me to push players above Jamo because he's not producing right now.
10:58And it's like, I think you see why in this game, like why he's worth holding onto even with the current setup, I think he could produce.
11:05And then obviously we know the upside is massive.
11:08If he goes down to me, the biggest winner Detroit this year continues to be Sam Laporta.
11:13And I just think that we, we finally saw it like come to fruition here in this game.
11:18But like the setup is so nice for Laporta to run a ton of routes and get a ton of volume.
11:24Obviously we know with like Sun God and Jumir Gibbs, like who they are.
11:28Um, so they're the most valuable players in fantasy basically.
11:30But like Laporta is not seen that way really.
11:33Um, and there's a bunch of tight ends who are out producing him really on the year or before this week there were at least.
11:40And I feel like he's somebody you could get in trades, maybe still can get in trades.
11:45Um, just running this many routes at tight end is going to lead to a ton of fantasy points.
11:50All right. Yeah. Jacob's right on that. Yep. Go ahead.
11:53Panthers 32, Detroit 26. That'll, that'll wrap it up.
11:55What's coming up on beyond the box score this week.
11:58Uh, who wants to do it? Raise your hand if you want to do the promo.
12:03Jacob's the promo guy. All right. Jacob's the promo king.
12:06Yeah. So, um, Dan and I do our, our signature show every Tuesday where we get to dig into film.
12:11Um, and there's a lot to dig into for sure.
12:14Like we just have so many new coaches and everything this year.
12:17Um, so the first four weeks, like we're just trying to sink our teeth into as much of that as possible.
12:23So that's on Tuesday. Um, we do start sit on Thursday.
12:26Um, and then the other thing is the rest of season rankings updates that I do every Wednesday, I think are really good.
12:33If you have time to really dig into what's happening around the league.
12:37Um, so that's for like, I mean, mostly for deeper dynasty players and stuff like that, but anybody who's interested in that will have timestamps on there.
12:44So you can go to this specific team or player that you're interested in or whatever I cover every play in the league.
12:51Let's go through the news and notes. Lamar Jackson has an ankle injury.
12:54Marcus Mariota, uh, re-injured his MCL. So he almost certainly didn't see a timeline, but I wouldn't expect him to play quarterback this week.
13:01It could be Jaden Daniels though, against the New York giants.
13:04Tyson Bajan is going to start for the bears.
13:07The one game that I haven't watched any tape of that I really want to is bears jets.
13:12I do not understand how the jets ran. I think 32 plays, um, just had the ball for 17 minutes and 15 seconds, horrific offensive performance for them.
13:20And also, yeah, I think Kalief Raymond ran about half the routes.
13:23Luther burden ran about half the routes. It was a weird game.
13:26And I didn't think Bajan said this with Heath yesterday.
13:29I think Bajan played as well as his numbers, but I don't know if you've guys have had a chance to watch any of that bears game.
13:37Um, but now, no, not yet. Yeah. That'd be a good one for this week.
13:41It's just too much to watch. It's like 90 plays on the bear.
13:45So I was like, I'll clearly just watch that tonight or something.
13:48Yeah. Yeah. They'd be, yeah. They had the ball.
13:51That's going to take two hours forever. Um, Kyle Mononga guy.
13:54I didn't see any update on his thumb, but we're keeping an eye on that.
13:58Saquon Barkley. Haven't got an update on the hamstring yet.
14:01And Chris Brooks ankle injury for the Packers. Kyle use check.
14:04Has a knee injury. Looks like you shake. At least this is a very important fullback for the Niners.
14:09He avoided a serious injury, but he's going to miss a little bit of time.
14:13And they are at Seattle this week. Huge game.
14:16Niners at Seahawks. Uh, wide receiver. We got Rasheed Rice leaving in the first quarter.
14:20We got DJ Moore with the shoulder injury. Tyreek Hill.
14:23Looks like he's going to sign in the next few days.
14:26Where do you guys want Tyreek Hill to go?
14:29Chiefs. Yeah. It seems like chiefs, I guess is where he's gone.
14:32Yeah. He was pretty good last year. He really, he was good.
14:35He just had a gruesome injury. So I don't know what to expect, but, uh, definitely.
14:40I mean, he's a gotta be the number one waiver wire guy this week.
14:44Right. I think Emmanuel Wilson could be, uh, could be that.
14:47Yeah. But who didn't scoop him up? He's only like 64% roster, believe it or not.
14:51Really? Yeah. Um, get him in any leagues this, this weekend when I tried to.
14:56Yeah. I don't know who else it would be.
14:58It's not a great waiver week. So yeah, Tyreek Hill is going to be up there.
15:03Um, other news, Jamar Chase and T Higgins are both hurt.
15:06Jamar Chase has a concussion. T Higgins and a doctor injury.
15:09They're at Miami this week. Then they have a buy.
15:12So we'll see who's, who's available. Um, Pat Bryant, ankle injury.
15:15Vlad McConkie left with a foot injury. Matt Collins, calf injury.
15:18And Malik neighbors does have this shoulder issue that popped up again in this game.
15:22He came, he left the game, came back, but I guess we'll consider him healthy, but playing through something.
15:27Okay. We'll take a break. When we come back, we'll look at some of the numbers, the snap counts, the trends that
15:34you need to know who the, the running back rotation for the chargers.
15:37What you need to know about that. Oops. And a holding call that I looked at like seven times and still haven't
15:43been able to find that negated a long touchdown.
15:46We'll be right back on fantasy football today. All right.
15:49Welcome back. Let's go through some of the numbers that we noticed over the weekend or in Sunday's games.
15:54This is where I throw it to Jacob to start things off.
15:58What do you got for us, Jacob? Number man.
16:00Yeah. Yeah. The Jets play in total has to be pointed out.
16:03Um, it's the second fewest of any team in any game dating back to 2000.
16:08Um, so last year we actually did have that Raiders game against the chiefs where they only had 30 plays.
16:13Um, but the jets with 32 is the second lowest.
16:16So that's relevant, um, for all of the baseline counting stats, like Kenyan Sadiq actually had a 40% first three target rate
16:22in this game, but like it, you didn't really notice that much, right?
16:26Cause they barely ran any plays. Um, so yeah, Sadiq was one of four tight ends who had a first three target
16:32rate of 40% or higher in week four, which is really an unusually high number.
16:36Um, for reference, Trey McBride generally leads in that, uh, stat by a wide margin with like a 33% rate.
16:42And then it drops off to like 20, 25%.
16:45It's like the next highest guys. Um, and we for McBride, Sadiq, Isaiah likely and TJ Hawkinson all had a first read rate of 40% or higher.
16:52Likely's lowest first read rate on the year in any game is 25%.
16:56Um, it's been at least 32% every other game.
16:58So that's very, very high. For a tight end neighbors had a 32% rate in week four as well.
17:04Um, so it was lower than likelies. Um, and neighbors seem to be back.
17:08Like you mentioned, like he did get banged up visibly and came off for a little bit, but, um, something I've been
17:14tracking is his route depth and the way that they're using Malik neighbors in this game.
17:18It was more like what we had seen in the past from him.
17:22So it seemed like he was healthy. I'm curious what your read on it is, Dan or Adam giants fans.
17:28Go ahead. He looked fully healthy to me. Obviously he came out of the game with the injury.
17:33It's just something he's going to manage all year, that shoulder injury.
17:36But I thought he looked phenomenal on his touchdown up the seam, had a great release on the Theo Johnson touchdown and
17:42should have could have caught another touchdown, but he, he went to Theo and that was fine.
17:47Jameis, he's going to take those chances. Um, still haven't seen like the true, like underneath drag route that he like houses
17:53or like turns into a post catch. Still haven't seen that burst yet, but the releases off the line of scrimmage have been phenomenal.
18:00And he made the play of the game. I thought the catch of the game where Jameis Winston kind of just threw
18:06an effort ball up to him and he just adjusted midair behind him to catch a ball and high pointed.
18:12So to me, he looks pretty good. And I think some of the panicking we had on him was probably a little
18:18overdone based on the weather the giants played with last week.
18:21And based on the fact, which was fair at the time, which was a concern, like will Nagy and Harbaugh try to
18:27manage him and make Jameis become a quarterback? He's not.
18:30And we saw from week two and three, like you really can't do that with Jameis.
18:35If you're going to start him, you have to let him be Jameis.
18:38And if he is going to be Jameis, that means two 50 and 300, or I'm sorry, in three TDs type games with a lot of shot plays.
18:46And that's really good for neighbors as well. From a fantasy standpoint.
18:50I know a tight end who almost got to that 40% range was Colson.
18:54Loveland had a 35 first three target rate in week four.
18:57So his highest rate before this was 14% in any game.
19:00It's been 11, 14 and 10%. And then it was 35% this week.
19:03The rates have really been all over the place for the bears.
19:07If you're watching on YouTube, you can see on the screen here, like Roman dudes had a 22% rate in this one.
19:13Luther Burden's rate was only 17%. And so this is the percentage of the team's first three targets.
19:18His lowest rate before that burden was 28%. It was all the way down to 17%.
19:23So it's, it's fluctuated game to game pretty wildly.
19:25Khalif Freeman's rate has been as high as 33%, but was down to 9%.
19:29In this game. So maybe this signals, um, a desire to get Loveland more involved.
19:33Um, I think honestly though, the more troubling data point here and the more important one is that his route rate Loveland's route rate continues to be low.
19:41His route participation rate hasn't been above 70% in any of the past three games.
19:45So he was night tight in 19 and the percentage of the team's dropbacks where he ran around in week four, they're
19:52struggling, um, with their left tackle spot. And he's been asked to block more as a result.
19:56Um, and just running routes is the most important signal for tight ends in terms of scoring fantasy points.
20:02So I don't know if we're out of the woods with Loveland yet based off of this one data point in terms of the first three targets.
20:09Um, I'm going to talk about him more on beyond the box score.
20:13And when I dig into the, the busts, I do think he's run pretty cold in terms of like the expected fantasy
20:19points that the targets that he's gotten, obviously everybody who was watching red zone saw him come very close to scoring a touchdown, but not get it.
20:27Um, yeah, it's, it's been pretty rough. Two in a row, two weeks in a row.
20:31He's almost had a touchdown Loveland. And I think with another thing, it's tough to, you know, trying to pick up on patterns with the bears.
20:39They've had three quarterbacks in four games. Right. So, um, you don't, you don't really know what the, what the tendencies are, I guess.
20:45And I think it could just be frustrating for this team.
20:48This hope that they score enough points. I mean, look, obviously if you'd listen to the show, you know, I have a lot of Khalif Raymond now.
20:56I went pretty big on him on waivers this past week, but I hope for everyone else's sake that Khalif Raymond kind
21:02of fades away because if Khalif Raymond stays a big deal, it's going to be really annoying.
21:07If he doesn't, then we'll have more consistent production from the guys that we actually drafted to have production from.
21:13I'm an unselfish guy like that. I will tell you.
21:15Yeah. Thanks. Thank you, Adam. Um, a few other things I wanted to point out.
21:20One was Kyron Williams is getting tons of targets.
21:22He has 20 targets over the past two games.
21:25He has back-to-back games with 40 or more air yards.
21:28So he's actually getting targeted down the field, which is unusual for running back.
21:31It's unusual for him. He's never had a game above 40 air yards before the season.
21:36Now he's done in back-to-back games. So they've obviously been down, um, a few pass catchers and they're leaning more on him, which is interesting to me.
21:44He was running back one in expected fantasy points in week four, um, which is the fantasy points data is modeled that
21:50like accounts for where all the touches are coming from.
21:53Um, it's, I mean, if he's going to play this type of a role, I think the game scripts have favored him a little bit.
22:00Um, and it boosted these numbers a little bit, obviously injuries and stuff too, but like this is, this seems like it
22:06might be an evolution where he's not just out there for passing downs, but actually getting targeted.
22:11Whereas in the past, he's just not really, he's past protecting a lot.
22:14Um, and he's running routes sometimes, but not getting very many targets.
22:18Um, yeah, the rant, well, the Rams, you know, I think Stafford's back-to-back games with 50 or more passes right around there anyway.
22:24And we just didn't expect that from them. You know, they're supposed to have Aaron Donald and miles Garrett and they're supposed
22:30to be this dominant team, but they're two and two, they're almost one in three.
22:35So I, I guess things, I guess I could say things could look very different in like a month, but I think that's fair.
22:41But, but the fact is like Corum's really not getting a lot of carries.
22:45Kyron is being treated like, like the number one guy and you know, he scores.
22:49I mean, that's, he just has a propensity to score.
22:52He's going to be freaking awesome. I wish I had more Kyron.
22:56Another regret. Another player at a really high first three target rate this week.
23:00Um, unusually high was Taequann Thornton. Um, so Rashi Rice missed most of the game and Thornton had a 35% first three
23:06target rate, which was by far his highest rate of the season.
23:09He has the highest passer rating when targeted as the first read in the NFL this year.
23:14Nearly perfect. 156.3. Um, he's averaged 17.4 yards per first three target.
23:17Compare that to 5.8 for Xavier worthy. Um, I don't really know where these targets are going to go with the chiefs.
23:24Like he was a really important part of their offense.
23:26And I don't know if they have anyone else who can really do what he does.
23:31Um, worthy. You would like to think can fill that role, but it just hasn't ever really looked like that.
23:36Um, so I'm very curious, like maybe this is Tyreek where Tyreek Hill lands and he just steps in and does it.
23:43I mean, I think of George Kittle right away when I think of like Tyreek and like, could he just be the
23:49outlier that is able to look like himself even after a massive injury?
23:53Like maybe, um, but if he's not, I don't, I don't know what that's going to mean for this offense.
23:58I think having an actual field stretching presence is really important, right?
24:02Like there's a lot of players who benefit from space in this offense.
24:05Um, and it could, it could get kind of congested if we get back to like what we've seen in the past
24:11from the chiefs and not being able to tag down the field.
24:15Um, I know y'all know that I've been very high on like Cyrus Allen.
24:19I don't know if he's going to get that opportunity.
24:22Like Jalen Roy was clearly played ahead of him this week when, um, rushy rice went down and that's been the case all year.
24:28He's clearly been ahead of Cyrus Allen. Um, Allen barely play, but I do think he's like their one hope of like somebody who can beat man coverage.
24:36Now that Taequann's gone is this rookie receiver, but we just haven't seen him get those opportunities yet.
24:41So are you worried about my homes? Yeah, a little bit.
24:44I mean, are you saying like for fantasy purposes?
24:47Yeah, sure. I mean, I think out of his mind, right?
24:50Nice. It looks right. But I think he's playing so well, he's going to run and everything, but like between lack of
24:56a deep threat and then also the tackle situation scares me.
24:59They've been able to do a pretty good job with these rollouts and everything of avoiding that being a problem.
25:05Um, they've been really, really efficient on these rollout plays.
25:08Um, and they lead the league in terms of the number of plays that they're doing this where they're like resetting the pocket.
25:14Um, but I do think defenses might catch onto that with more and more film.
25:18Um, and it's just, I don't know, it's, it's almost kind of a gimmicky offense again now.
25:23So we'll see their next three games after the bye week chargers at the Seahawks at the Broncos.
25:28That could be tough, but who knows? I mean, it doesn't seem like there's any defense that really stops people right now.
25:34Maybe Minnesota, unless you're Dolly G show, of course.
25:37Yeah. The last that I had was on Cardinal Tate.
25:40Um, try to end it on the high note, but I don't know how much we really believe in the Titans being able to sustain this.
25:47Uh, but seventh highest first read target rate in the NFL on the year belongs to Cardinal Tate, which is honestly pretty
25:53shocking for a rookie's first four games. Um, I mean, it's higher than like, I mean, well, everybody except for six players, it's extremely high.
26:00Um, three players had a first read target rate above 50% this week.
26:04It was CD lamb, Tedrow, McMillan, and Cardinal Tate at a 44% target share.
26:0876% of the air yards. It's like, he's, it's not like the Wanda Robinson scam thing that we thought it might be with Brian day ball.
26:15It's like, this is our actual wide receiver one, which I do think is really relevant because that's, we never, we didn't
26:21have any proof of that coming into the league.
26:24Right. We didn't see him do that at all in college.
26:27And I mean, to be fair, it's the Titans and I guess they're just, they don't really have a lot else, but
26:33it's still meaningful to be able to do that, to be able to run an offense through a rookie receiver.
26:39Who's, you know, getting a lot of downfield targets too.
26:42I've been really encouraged by that. Yeah. I, it just, can we get cam word to just throw some touchdowns?
26:47Cam word in his career has a 2.7% touchdown rate.
26:50That is just awful. Gosh, I did see touchdowns.
26:53It's crazy. I want to see that game though.
26:55That's one of the games I want to talk about for tomorrow, Jacob, because I felt from watching the tape a week,
27:01three giants Titans, that that Tate looked unbelievable. And we talked about that on last week's show.
27:06Really? He was creating separation. Yeah. Tate. Tate. I'm sorry.
27:09I was Tate. Yes. Not ward, obviously. Um, and then clearly the Titans watched that tape and were like, all right, cam look at these plays.
27:16He's wide open, figure out how to get this ball and just like lock into all this.
27:21And that's how it felt on those plays. They were like first read.
27:25Like you said, Jacob, that might just be a thing moving forward to like make things easier for cam ward.
27:30You can just have him rely more on these first read targets to Carnell Tate, a guy who's winning the routes very easily.
27:37So I kind of love tape moving forward. We'll see.
27:40I don't expect the Titans offense to look as bad as it did the first three weeks.
27:45Um, I think it'll get better and better in the able scheme, but it does rely on ward.
27:50Like you said, creating a little bit more and he's really struggled, but their old line hasn't been as bad as people thought they would be.
27:57That's another thing. That's plus. So who's your favorite.
27:59Let's go to the Cleveland game from Thursday, right?
28:02Who's your favorite rookie wide receiver right now or rest of season, or at least for the immediate future.
28:07Oh, I would go with conception. Wait, what are you asking?
28:10Tate versus the Browns or versus any of the, I mean, is there anyone I'm forgetting?
28:15Any other rookie receivers? I mean, we're still weeks away.
28:18A quote, according to report today from Tyson and he could be a big, big one, but that's still more speculation than anything.
28:24It's basically Boston conception lemon, I guess. Um, and Tate, Cyrus Allen, and Cyrus Allen, um, or Malachi Fields.
28:30Just kidding. But it looks pretty good. Boston's got some real, real encouraging stuff.
28:33I mean, Boston is like Boston. I like it's really good.
28:37Deshaun Watson's favorite target. Right. So, uh, it's close between you can make a case for any of the three of them.
28:43I think the hardest case to make just based on production would be conception, but the arrow seems to be pointing up for conception.
28:50Uh, I think I'm going to go with, uh, I'm going to go with the, I'm going to go with the Tate.
28:56Tate, Tate. I think you have to really like Boston.
28:59Yeah. Okay. All right. I'll give you a few numbers here.
29:02Nico Collins only ran 40% of the routes and he still had a huge game.
29:06So good. Let's go. Antonio Williams ran less than half the routes.
29:09He had a big touchdown call back, but if McLaurin's out again, you want to count on Antonio Williams, maybe Antonio Williams
29:15for rookie to keep an eye on too. Yeah.
29:18Keep an eye on. Yeah. Dalton Kincaid, Dave talked about this yesterday.
29:21Uh, Dalton Kincaid only ran 54.1% of the routes.
29:24That's what's going on there. That's not good. Yep.
29:26Um, Kalief Raymond, I already mentioned 55% of the routes.
29:29That's two games around 75% for him. Two games around 57% route rate for Kalief Raymond.
29:34Luther burden was in the fifties as well. And route rate yesterday.
29:37The jets ran 32 plays, but Braylon Allen played 94% of the snaps.
29:41Uh, the chargers, this was from ESPN, the chargers 13% pass block win rate was their lowest in the 10 seasons that
29:47ESPN has been tracking pass block win rate. At one point, the chargers had four rookie offensive linemen.
29:52They had three guys leave with injuries yesterday, including both of their tackles.
29:56And how did their rotation at running back play out?
29:59Basically all three of them, Hampton Vidal and Mitchell played the same amount of snaps.
30:03They all played about 35% of the snaps. They all ran 11 to 13 routes.
30:07Keaton Mitchell played the most on third down Hampton and Mitchell had nine and 10 carries respectively.
30:12Kamani Vidal had five carries. He had a touchdown catch.
30:15The fact that both of them, that two of them scored a touchdown is, is wonderful, but this is obviously a fantasy nightmare.
30:21We cannot have a three headed monster where none of them get more than what, well, actually it was 15 touches for
30:27Keaton Mitchell, which is great, but you can't really expect that.
30:30They ran a lot of plays. Whole thing's a nightmare.
30:33Yeah, it sucks. Uh, and now like all of these offensive line injuries.
30:37Wow. Uh, and then I, I don't know, maybe the broadcast.
30:40It was better than the all 22 version, but I didn't see a hold on basial tootin's 44 yard touchdown run.
30:46And I didn't see a replay. Like sometimes they show a guy like grabbing a Jersey, but I was like, where was the penalty?
30:53Um, so that was disappointing. And I was looking at that because I want to see what the Bengals run defense is all about.
30:59First two weeks looked like they had a really good run defense.
31:03Then they got destroyed by Jalen Warren. And then they really got eaten up by Bejal Tootin, even though the numbers aren't
31:09as good as they could have been because of that holding penalty.
31:12Cause next week, who do they got? Dan respect.
31:15They got the Ali G show. Oh, okay. Okay.
31:17So I want to see what, you know, what kind of, what kind of, I don't know.
31:22I don't, I watched the Ali G show, but I don't have any quotes from her to remember anything.
31:27It's probably something you probably shouldn't be saying on air anyway.
31:31That's what you could quote from. It's very, it was very funny.
31:34It was, it was my least favorite of the three characters from the original Ali G show.
31:39You thought he was the least funny? Well, I liked Borat.
31:42There was the, there was the other guy, the gay guy.
31:45I don't remember. Bruno. Bruno. Borat and Bruno and Ali G.
31:48Uh, and I, oh no, I think Ali G was my favorite because he was so stupid and they took him seriously.
31:54Like they had the debate once about like there was a panel and he was talking about, math and he's like, what is three plus three plus three?
32:02I just remember that clip. Like that was a great one, but times 25.
32:06He's like, no, you can easily do this with a calculator.
32:09I don't remember that. Uh, anyway. Um, okay. So we're going to take a break and talk about our big topics before we go to break.
32:16Question from the chat from Wisco Disco. Dan, not a single badger decoration in your background anymore.
32:21Fake fan. He's not wrong. I need to get my badgers decorations back up.
32:25It's more of a case of me being too lazy.
32:28Um, but look, the badgers baby, we're back. That's all I can really say.
32:32Um, Colton Joseph still a little spectacle skeptical, but he does make great running plays and has occasional good throws.
32:38We just blew out a team. We beat Penn state the week before, which unfortunately now looks like a less important and
32:44interesting win, but just feels good to have a team.
32:47That's not horrible again from Wisconsin. Would you say Dan, as a fan that you are fickle?
32:51What? Isn't Luke fickle their coach? Yeah. What did you say?
32:54Fickle? As a fan that you're fickle. Nah, this is a bad dad joke.
32:58Let's move on. Okay. Jacob is like looking up stats right now.
33:02Not even paying attention. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.
33:05Big topics today. John Keene says, uh, players in week four gold or fool's gold.
33:09Drake may Tedderall McMillan. Okay. We think gold there.
33:12Emmanuel Wilson, Ollie Gordon. We're going to get to him in a different topic and Keon Coleman.
33:17So the three really that to focus on here are Drake may 32.2 fantasy points at Buffalo.
33:22Emmanuel Wilson, 27 fantasy points against the chargers and Keon Coleman with a huge game, six catches, 116 yards and a touchdown on seven targets against the Patriots.
33:29And he ran 94% of the routes in the second half with DJ more on the sideline here.
33:34So, all right, well, how do we go just one, two, three, and then we'll get into it more in depth gold or fool's gold.
33:42Drake may, you know how we feel about Drake may.
33:44Wow. So I'm gaining more fool's gold. I want to see it.
33:48I'm gaining more gold. Okay. Uh, he's running. I mean, only Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards than Drake may this year.
33:54I think he's basically there. He's basically doing what you want, except that he keeps turning the ball over.
33:59I never felt from watching the tape, specifically even the Jaguars game.
34:03Like he was just, Oh no, his arm shot.
34:05He's gone. I just felt like he was still making insanely good throws, but also just so many mistakes and he wasn't trusting his line.
34:12And like this week, the Chisholm touchdown was the exact same throw he made on the move rolling right to Holland's last
34:18week and Holland's just bobbled it and dropped it.
34:21So like he needs some plays from his guys.
34:23He's going to get AJ Brown back soon. The rapport is continuing to improve with Romeo Dobbs.
34:28He's still running, which is so important to his fantasy value in the first place.
34:32I'll say gold in the sense of, I think he'll be a startable quarterback for you.
34:37I don't think he's getting back to last year's pace of like QB one, QB two, QB three, but I still think
34:43he'll be a startable QB one, um, within weeks.
34:46And for sure, once AJ Brown is back. Okay.
34:48Yeah. This upcoming week against the Raiders, I'm not sure the Raiders have a really good pass rush and I think they
34:54just have a good defense in general. Um, so yeah.
34:57Okay. That, so we can get into Drake may a little bit more, uh, but Emmanuel Wilson, gold or fool's gold.
35:03He's good. Oh, I mean, neither, but if I have to lean toward one gold until Charbonnet is back.
35:09Yeah. Okay. Which could be as much as easy.
35:11Once Charbonnet is back, that gold is turning into bronze or whatever is next.
35:15Silver. Silver. No, it's probably worse. Like, you know, silver is next.
35:18It can't be as good as silver. It has to be like worse than bronze.
35:23I don't think he plays once Charbonnet is back.
35:25That's what I mean. Like once, no, he'll play as little, but like he's, he's done once Charbonnet is back.
35:31So Charbonnet is going to be back. If Charbonnet is healthy, what's the point of Emmanuel Wilson?
35:36None really, but they'll still give him some random touches.
35:38Like Charbonnet is not going to come back with a full workload.
35:42I don't think, I mean, I think the plan would be him and price.
35:46Charbonnet is going to be back before price. Yeah.
35:48Charbonnet has to be back before price. The way I understand it.
35:52They opened up his three week practice window. Right.
35:54So I, and if you look at Charbonnet and Wilson and you just did like a blind, you know, look at these
36:00guys, take away their names, look at their advanced metrics, look at their yards per carry, their big pay rate.
36:06Who would be better? I think maybe Wilson or, or at least no one would really.
36:10No Charbonnet. Charbonnet has some great advanced stats to him as far as like not limiting negative runs.
36:16He's one of the best in the NFL since he entered the NFL.
36:19I don't think he's better than Emmanuel Wilson. At limiting negative runs?
36:23I looked at it this morning. It was over a much bigger sample size.
36:26I mean, Wilson is a successor machine. Like he does have really good advanced stats for what it's worth.
36:32Charbonnet has been better for fantasy. Over a much bigger sample size.
36:35Like I don't trust it as much from somebody like Wilson who's doing it over a small sample size.
36:41Definitely a smaller sample size, but you know, Charbonnet, he's been really good whenever he's had the lead role when they're, you
36:47know, when Kenneth Walker has been out, but he's not in the red zone.
36:51He's not an explosive runner. Neither is Wilson. Um, they're both, I mean, Wilson was used as Wilson was used as Charbonnet when price was healthy.
36:58So, right. So Jacob, you seem to think when Charbonnet comes back and price comes back, Wilson will be on the sideline.
37:04Yeah. I mean, that's my guess, right? I mean, they, they love Charbonnet.
37:08They absolutely love him. Like he's my, my McDonald talks about that all the time.
37:12They drafted him around to all they've done is make him really relevant when he's healthy.
37:17Um, and then, yeah, he's running back eight out of 33 qualifiers and fantasy points per touch since entering the NFL ahead
37:23of guys like Brie's hall, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker on the same team has averaged more.
37:28But when you are the goal linebacker, that's going to help, right?
37:32Yeah, sure. Yeah, for sure. I mean, all those guys are the goal linebacker except for Kenneth Walker and Brie's hall.
37:38And he is good at avoiding negative play, but he has a 21% rate.
37:42Zach Charbonnet, 21% of his carries have gone for zero or negative yards.
37:45And for Emmanuel Wilson, that is, oh, I'm looking at his receiving numbers.
37:49Sorry about that. 21% for Charbonnet and for Wilson, 20.8%.
37:52So basically the same, um, higher avoid rate is Emmanuel Wilson by 3%, but it is all much smaller sample sizes.
37:58You're right about that. Explosive play rate, 5.7% for Wilson, 7.5% for Charbonnet.
38:01All right. Um, and then the last one was Keon Coleman.
38:04And I think it's easy to say fool's gold for Coleman if DJ Moore plays, but this is another injury for DJ Moore.
38:11I'm thinking, let's just assume he, let's just assume he misses week five.
38:15I'm not saying he will, but in that scenario at the Rams, uh, gold or fool's gold for Keon Coleman.
38:20I think he's a great pickup. I mean, I feel like he's looked a lot better this year.
38:25Yeah. It's interesting. I wrote about this last night for the site and it was like last year, Dave was, this was his guy.
38:32This was his breakout pick. He went to camp, saw the joint practice talk to at the time it was their OC Joe Brady.
38:39And it felt like it was all there for Coleman.
38:42And I think his confidence got shaken a little bit at the beginning of last season.
38:46And ultimately the offense just didn't really emerge the way we expected it to from a forward passing game.
38:51I thought last year, at least everything was kind of designed off the play action in the boot this year.
38:57They're definitely a more forward thinking offense passing wise.
39:00And he looks way more confident to me. Always had the talent.
39:03I was a big fan of his coming out the way he ran the gauntlet drill at just the GPS tested time versus the 40 yard dash time.
39:11And I think if he's playing confident, he can be a really good player for the bills.
39:16So I with Josh Allen, I think it's probably more so a fantasy asset when Moore is out.
39:21If Moore's back in the lineup, that's tough to, but with more out.
39:24Yeah, I believe in it. I'm not as much of a fan of Coleman.
39:28I just think he's too slow. I mean, I didn't see him get a lot of separation except on his last target,
39:35which was at the time looked like it was going to be the game winning touchdown.
39:39He made a great move, burn the defender. Allen threw a frozen rope.
39:43I won't say what Tom Brady would call it.
39:45Frozen rope into the end zone for a touchdown.
39:48But other than that, I mean, he really like just, I just don't think he gets any separation.
39:53He's like, honestly, it's like Marvin Harrison out there.
39:55He had a 34% slot rate in this game, which I like.
39:59I think it's possible they're starting to figure out like how to use him and that they don't necessarily have to have
40:05him on the outside because of, gosh dang, I'm blanking on the guy's name from the Chargers.
40:10Palmer. Josh Palmer. Yeah. Yeah. Peace missile. I love that.
40:13Yeah. All right. Anything else you guys want to say about Drake May?
40:16I kind of hurried that along. Um, guess where Drake may ranks in highly accurate throw rate on throws of 10 or
40:22more air yards with no pressure out of 29 qualifiers.
40:25Oh, good question. What is it? 10 or more air yards, no pressure, highly accurate throws.
40:30I'm going to say he rates third. Um, last year, maybe he ranks 25th out of 29.
40:35He's missing those. I thought he played great yesterday.
40:37I mean, he did great football. Dropping it in the bucket.
40:40I thought he was awesome. And it with his legs, but I am nervous about him against the Raiders.
40:46I really believe in the Raiders defense. I mean, they, they got after Patrick Mahomes and they don't blitz.
40:51They get pressure with four and this is a Patriots offensive line with some questions.
40:55So we'll see how he does. And it's fair to wonder based on the numbers, if this Bill's defense is going to be bad.
41:02I think they're around 27th in EPA or something of that nature.
41:05I saw a stat for this earlier. I don't have the exact number in the twenties.
41:10I have a lot of faith in Jim Leonard and what he can do defensively from a schematic standpoint, from watching it at Wisconsin.
41:16I don't know if it's translating yet to the NFL game.
41:20Um, so I wonder if that we'll see that this week, if Drake may kind of comes back to earth.
41:25I saw the Drake may had a passer rating of 56, uh, within this split throws of 10 or more yards with no pressure.
41:32I'm like, that's gotta be the worst. Justin Herbert's is 23.1.
41:35Oh man. Uh, so also with, with may Christian Benford, the number one cornerback for the bills was out at all.
41:41Yeah. Only played 32% of the snaps he left with an injury.
41:44That's a important defensive lineman for the bills. So not a great bills defense and banged up to boot.
41:50He did play great though. Okay. Here's Matt's question.
41:52Who are some players that you regret not drafting?
41:55I already said for me, Zay flowers, Ted, roll McMillan.
41:58I just, I think I kind of botched the three, four turn with too much, uh, too much McConkie and DJ more,
42:04you know, like it just, it just has, it's just so annoying.
42:07It's like, listen, if you're on my freaking fantasy team and you want to get hurt, get hurt.
42:12Stop doing it in the first quarter or the second quarter, like stop doing it in the middle of the game.
42:18I'm getting really frustrated. Like just, we're all getting killed by these.
42:22Oh, it's killing me. It's killing me. And so many of it's killing everybody though.
42:26It's not just us too, Adam. It's been a problem for fantasy.
42:29It's only me. Adam, would you say that's an eye for an eye?
42:33Is that a joke about my wonky eye? Yes.
42:35I still have a bad eye. Uh, yeah. Still have this eye.
42:39All your problems tend to linger longer than they should.
42:42You know, I haven't been sick. I haven't been sick in a while and you have been so.
42:47Yeah, I know, but it got to get over it faster than you do.
42:51Okay. Well, I have trouble getting over things like not drafting, say flowers.
42:54What are some of your regrets, Dan? Um, I would say you named a few of them.
42:59My biggest regret is I love CD land preseason.
43:01Didn't come away with him in a single auction, except for the one we did with the, with your friends at the end.
43:08Cause I was just like, I have to do it.
43:11And I think the reality was I was hoping and wanting to buy him at the price of where he was ranked ADP.
43:17And the reality is I should have scrapped that and been like, this guy can clearly be a top five, top six
43:23fantasy player, which he now obviously is. And it seems so obvious now.
43:27And I think Jacob, you made a great case for him at the end of draft season when we did our ADP value tiers.
43:34And I just wasn't able to, at that point, get him.
43:37So that's a big regret of mine. Um, lamb, I think is just an obvious league winner this year and should have known that should have been obvious.
43:45Uh, the other regret of mine that I ended up fixing a little bit at the end was Chuba Hubbard.
43:50I kind of had the feeling that we were overrating Jonathan Brooks, the entire process talked about that throughout, but didn't do anything about it.
43:58And what is there to do about it? There was something obvious to do about it.
44:02It was by Chuba Hubbard at an insanely decreased and depressed cost.
44:05I kind of avoided the whole thing in Carolina.
44:08This is similar to Tedrow McMillan and other big draft forget of mine, but those are the two that stand out the
44:14most to me specifically because I felt like there was a way for me to fix how I was feeling.
44:20And I just didn't lean into it enough. Um, I think one other one would probably be not fully buying into the
44:26Zay Flowers hype and thinking he was overpriced. Similar thing with Parker Washington, just too much hype from fantasy analysts.
44:32And I was like, I don't want to pay this price.
44:35But the reality is the price was worth paying on both of those players.
44:39Adam, Dan and I did an auction draft together and it was complete chaos.
44:43I was doing all sorts of stuff that was like stressing Dan out.
44:46Um, including just buying Zay Flowers without really asking.
44:49Um, our team, our team's like perfect. Yeah. It's like, we've had on like every single thing.
44:54And of course it was just like some young was super lucky of a pick, but we hit it.
44:59Some really random league for like no money or anything.
45:02It's going to be for now. And it doesn't matter.
45:05I love that though. That's awesome. Yeah. I don't know if Jacob, you want to go through your regrets.
45:10I do have one thing. A lot of the same stuff.
45:13Sorry. I didn't mean to cut you off. No, no.
45:16I was going to tease. Like I'm going to disagree with Dan on one thing that he said, but go ahead.
45:22Well, who do you not drafting? A lot of the same stuff.
45:25I don't have any Hubbard either. Hubbard. Um, I guess you could have gotten there.
45:29I was worried about the offensive line. So I don't really have any Panthers outside of like dynasty.
45:34I already have a ton of them in dynasty.
45:37So I didn't really draft many of them this year.
45:40Um, but also Hubbard, it's been kind of a lucky run out.
45:43I think where it's like both backup running backs got hurt.
45:46I actually think Trevor HN is pretty good. Travis HN's little brother.
45:50Um, but they've both been out. So it's been like 90% Hubbard.
45:53Um, I mean, AJ Dillon is the backup. Like that's just where we're at here with this situation.
45:58Um, so that looks really bad, but I don't know.
46:01I think that that one's kind of lucky. Um, the bad one that I'm shocked you didn't mention Dan is Amari and Hampton.
46:07Like, oh, I thought we were doing the regrets of the ones we want.
46:11Regrets of the other side of it. That's what I was going to say.
46:15I have plenty of other side of the regrets.
46:18We didn't draft like CD land because of Hampton or he didn't draft in my case, Kenneth Walker because of Hampton.
46:24Like I was high on Kenneth Walker. Um, but I was drafting Hampton and Derek Henry ahead of him.
46:29And so Henry looks good, but Hampton looks like a, that team's dead because of this pick.
46:34And if you had Kenneth Walker, you might legitimately be like three and one or four and oh, oh, and four, one and three.
46:41Yeah. I was talking to Jamie about that. He's like, he loves Kenneth Walker, right?
46:45Love him. And he said, damn, my FFT team.
46:47I decided I just want to be different and diversify a little bit.
46:51And he took Barkley over Kenneth Walker and he's, oh, he's about to be able to just stuck with his rank.
46:57Yeah. That's the thing. Everybody likes to diversify. I've learned through the years.
47:01You don't diversify. I think you should diversify. You absolutely should diversify based on the injuries you should, but yes, exactly.
47:06I mean, you're look, you might have more bad teams, but you probably have more good teams if you diversify to probably have more.
47:13I think the opposite. If you don't diversify, you have a better chance to win a league.
47:18If you lean into like the Ken Walker thing.
47:21So part of the reason I ranked him lower was his injury history.
47:24And we started doing our analysis, Jacob and I, I had him above Hampton and I had him as my RB five.
47:30He was going to be my flag plan. And then he had that foot injury that meant nothing that ended up meaning nothing.
47:37And I'm just reminded in my head of like, can this guy do this and stay healthy?
47:42Um, we don't know yet. It's only been four weeks.
47:44I know. I know. Yeah. Yeah. Both Walker and a lava are that way where it's like either one of them, they
47:51have a pretty long injury history and we're only four weeks in, but right now they look like some of the best picks you could have made.
47:58Um, a lava to me feels kind of like JSN last year where I was very high on him for all these reasons.
48:05Had him ranked as like a borderline round two guy, but didn't end up drafting any lava this year.
48:10I drafted neighbors ahead of him. I drafted pickens ahead of him.
48:13I drafted say flowers ahead of him right now.
48:16It feels like the only one from that group barring an injury or something is flowers that could outproduce him.
48:22Maybe. Um, I also occasionally drafted Colson Loveland ahead of him in round three.
48:26Um, which is absolutely brutal. Um, and then T Mac is the other one I drafted, Ladd McConkie ahead of McMillan.
48:31I drafted Jalen Waddle. I drafted Luther Burden ahead of McMillan.
48:35So those have been brutal. And then the last one is George Kittle, but I don't think I was ever going to get there.
48:41Um, honestly, just drafting somebody that old off of an Achilles.
48:44I was, it just wasn't, didn't make sense to me.
48:47There were lots of late round tight ends the like, and some of them have been big hits, but not to the extent of Kittle.
48:54Kittle has been a, he looks like a complete league winner.
48:57And especially if Mike Evans can't make it through the season, which it seems like there's like a 2% chance of him making it through the season.
49:05Um, Kittle is going to go nuts. Like it's like all focused on him.
49:09There's no, they don't even throw to the receivers when Mike Evans isn't out there.
49:13Right. I wanted to disagree with you just on CD lamb.
49:16And this is so obvious. This should have been obvious.
49:19And, and I don't agree because if you just look at when lamb came back from the injury, he missed a couple of weeks, uh, last year.
49:27When he came back from injury, he had like half a target more per game than George Pickens or something like that.
49:33It was the last 10 games, excluding week eight.
49:35And Pickens was on pace for 146 targets and lamb was on pace for 156 targets and Pickens was better than him.
49:42And if you look at CD lamb's target per out run rate last season, it was 20, it was 25.8%, which is
49:48way below what it was the previous two or three years.
49:51I mean, the two years before that, it was 29%.
49:54And I think you could see an obvious, obvious, uh, issue, not that he was bad or anything, but that he wasn't
50:00the player that we thought that used to be with, with George Pickens on the team because the targets just were not there.
50:06Like this was the first time he was playing with a legit guy, uh, opposite him.
50:11And even going into last week, he was on pace for 141 targets.
50:15And then he gets a career high in targets and catches in week four.
50:18And now things look different, but I don't think it was obvious at all.
50:22I didn't draft CD lamb. I didn't draft Pickens.
50:25I just traded for him in one league. So of all my leagues, I have one Cowboys receiver.
50:30We'll talk about Pickens in a little bit, but I am a little surprised.
50:34And I think the numbers are a lot more lopsided now than they were a week ago or two days ago.
50:40Um, but I'm a little surprised at what we're seeing from some right now.
50:44He has a 32.2% target per out run rate, which is by far a career high.
50:48So, um, I don't think it was so obvious with CD lamb.
50:52But all right, let's go to our next one.
50:54Let's talk about Ali Gordon. Brandon from on Twitter wants to know about Ali Gordon.
50:58And I think a lot of people do. He's still rostered in only 78% of leagues.
51:03So he might be available in some leagues, nine carries a hundred yards and a touchdown at the Vikings, two catches for no yards.
51:10And not just that, Dan, he played a ton.
51:12He ran the most routes. I mean, he was like, basically there's their true lead running back, even though he only had nine carries.
51:19So, uh, how much are you buying into the Ali G show?
51:22I think what's most interesting is that the plan was not for him to be their true lead running back.
51:28As I went back and watched the tape of this game, the second, the first play of the game was a run for him.
51:35The second play of the game was a design screen that didn't work for him.
51:39And then Jalen Wright just came into the game during the first possession after their first first down.
51:44Jalen Wright eventually came back into the game. And for the, through the first five possessions, I believe it was nearly split between him and Wright.
51:51And then in the second half, we saw Ali G take over more.
51:55And I'll, I'll use that as well. Cause I think it's fun to use the Ali G show and big up yourself says Ben Seth.
52:02Yeah. I forget all of this stuff, but like that was one of them.
52:06Um, boom, yakasha, boom, yakasha, I think is another one that I see in there.
52:10I don't know if I pronounced that right. But, um, and then the plan kind of changed.
52:15I did feel like out of the a hundred yards, 53, I believe for 51 came on the one run.
52:21It was a good run. Do I feel like the dolphins kind of caught the Vikings in a really weird pre-snap formation
52:27that sometimes you can catch Brian Flores in. And then they ran like an outside run to the left where there was
52:33just one linebacker that needed to be pinned down.
52:36And then it opened up like a massive spot, a massive hole for Gordon to run through.
52:40Yes. Is that going to happen every week? I don't know, but his touchdown run was phenomenal.
52:45That was the second big run he had where he, it was again, a pretty well-blocked play.
52:50But he did have to hurdle over a defender who was flat on his feet and then keep his balance after hurtling
52:56and lost no momentum, shook off one more ankle tackle, uh, with pretty much ease again and went to the end zone.
53:02He's a big back. Like this is how it worked for him at Oklahoma state.
53:07When he was in the Heisman running his second to last season at Oklahoma state, it was because he used his size to basically bully players.
53:14And he's got a lot more lateral agility than you would expect for someone his size.
53:18I comped him coming out cause the giants really interested in him.
53:22They brought him in for a pre-draft. So I watched his tape.
53:25I comped him to like DeMarco Murray. He still reminds me of a DeMarco Murray type player, not as good in my
53:31mind, but has that ability like strong high cut runner.
53:34I feel like he makes more sense for what the dolphins are under Bobby Slovic than Jalen Wright does.
53:39And I think what, what they saw on film, they'll probably be like, all right, the plan that we went in with,
53:46which was basically a split with these two is probably going to have to lean more toward Ollie moving forward.
53:51I still don't get too excited though, Adam, because again, those two runs were what defined his game.
53:56And they were my mind just kind of taking advantage of Flores is aggressive nature.
54:01I don't have excitement about this offense. I don't have excitement about him getting a lot of scoring opportunities.
54:06So I'm not very excited about him moving forward personally.
54:09Okay. Good to know. And what do you think about the team name?
54:12Oil of Ollie. No, no. You don't, don't ever run back the oil of in your life again, please.
54:18Nobody's laughing at that, but your soundtrack can't just soundtrack your way to a laugh.
54:22All right. That's not how this works. Anything to add, Jacob, or shall we move on?
54:27That's crazy. Okay. We'll move on. Carlos Duran wants to know about George Pickens, David Montgomery, and all of the Bucs wide receivers.
54:33Jacob, who do you have, of any of these people, who do you have hope for?
54:37Pickens, Montgomery, Bucs wide receivers. Pickens. Yeah. So I do think that the lamb stuff was something we could have predicted.
54:43I think just playing through a high ankle sprain is a, is a very real reason to believe that his numbers came down last year.
54:50And it wasn't just that Pickens was like alpha in him or whatever.
54:54Um, I think both these guys are insanely good.
54:57Like truly two of the best, like, I don't know, eight receivers in the whole league or something like that on the same team.
55:03Lamb is the more consistent, reliable winner and has the rapport with Dak.
55:07Like him and Dak have been together forever. He's the guy in the red zone.
55:11That's the way it was last year, even when he was playing with a high ankle sprain.
55:16So he was my preferred pick for fantasy, but we're gonna see big games for Pickens.
55:21Um, he has so many yards called back on, or not called back, but like negated by pass interference already.
55:26Um, he's had drops too, which are, I think kind of random.
55:30Um, I, I just feel fine with Pickens. Um, the other guys here, like I'm a little bit worried about the Texans
55:36offensive line continues to really, really struggle in the box.
55:39I mean, I watched their whole game and it was, it's just, it's not happening for Ibuka.
55:43I don't think it's happening anytime soon, maybe in the second half or something.
55:47Um, how many catchable area yards do you think Ibuka had this week?
55:51Oh man. Oh, 30. Nope. No, he hasn't had more than 43 in a game all year.
55:56Um, and I'm pretty sure he had four this week.
55:59Wow. Did you see him get wide open and Daniels didn't see him?
56:02Could have been a touchdown. Yeah. Didn't see him.
56:05And he had the drop in the, in the end zone as well.
56:08Um, I said, um, beyond the box for this past week, he's not a top 36 receiver and he should be dropped in the rankings.
56:15I stand by that. And I don't really view him as a startable player at all at this point, outside of just
56:22his name being what it was and what he was at the beginning of last season.
56:26Um, so. No, I, I didn't think Daniels played that poorly though.
56:30Did you? I thought he played better than I expected.
56:32He played better in the second half. Sure. Yeah.
56:35It looked really bad at first, I thought. And then he kind of settled in and played better.
56:40So that's maybe some sign that it could get better.
56:43But as far as what a book is role within this offense is with the quarterback, he has no rapport with and the timing is way off.
56:50Like you just see so many moments and Jacob, you put a couple on Twitter where a book is open, but it's
56:57not going to get to him because in order for it to get there, the anticipation and the timing has to be good.
57:03And that's just not happening with Jalen Daniels. He made plays in that second half, but most of them I thought were
57:09off schedule to me at least, um, outside of like a few here and there.
57:13So I don't, it's just tough for me to get excited about anyone in this passing game right now at all.
57:1939% pressure rate for the bucks with 2.24 seconds as the average time to pressure.
57:24That's very, very fast. So Gannon, um, Packers defensive coach here was constantly crowding the line and showing different looks and the bucks really struggled against it.
57:31And it's like, if the offensive line is a problem, if the pass protection plan is a problem, then you have nothing
57:37like that's supposed to be the strength of this team.
57:40I just think that's the move too. Like all the good OCs do that.
57:44Sorry. DCs do the bad ones. Just stupid are stupid.
57:47I'll play my scheme. No, when you play a rookie quarterback who has no experience in the NFL, this should be the game plan every single time.
57:55And I think until proven until further notice, DCs are going to watch this tape and know this is how you play this box team.
58:02They don't really have a deep threat anyway to worry about it.
58:05And this, can we even get the ball there?
58:08So to me, I think this offense is going to look pretty bad until Baker's back.
58:12Personally, two screens to Buka in the game, um, two screens to Chris Godwin, one to gain well, one to on their run.
58:18They're throwing a ton of screens, but it just hasn't been effective at all among offices that are averaging three or more screens per game.
58:26Only the chargers, dolphins, Patriots, Bengals, and Vikings are averaging fewer yards per screen target.
58:30They have zero explosives on 15 screen targets this year.
58:33Um, so that's just generating nothing. And that's, that's been a huge theoretical strength of what this team should be, right?
58:38That's what it was when Liam Cole was there and Zach Robinson is supposed to implement all that stuff.
58:44He's kind of tried. It just hasn't worked. Um, I think that this, the stuff that like should be working is not working.
58:50They're also running a weird amount of the offense through Kate on and he's killing them.
58:55He's playing terrible and he has like the highest first three target rate again in this game.
59:00He has only one fewer first three target rates, first three targets than a Mecca Buka on the year.
59:05Um, I don't know. Wow. Yeah. I don't know what that is.
59:08Um, I know like my top pits got used this way kind of for Zach Robinson.
59:13So I don't know if that's going to continue or not, but it's not working.
59:17Yeah. Um, the only thing that really worked and it didn't work that well is just running with Bucky Irving or Sean
59:23Tucker occasionally, but just like they went to a lot, they simplified things in the round game.
59:28Just like man gap zone, a lot less outside zone, just man gap up the middle.
59:33Yeah. And those worked all right. Um, but again, just no explosive plays.
59:36That's just like, as long as this doesn't get blown up in the backfield, then we can get four or five, six yards.
59:43Um, but that run game isn't good enough for them to not eventually run into these like third long situations.
59:48And it just feels hopeless on those. Yeah. You only had two explosives all day.
59:53Yeah. I'm not sure there's a single startable player.
59:55I think the only one that's in question is Bucky.
59:58And if Sean Tucker's the goal linebacking, I freaked out about this yesterday and I'm still really upset about it.
60:04It's just, it's so annoying. You could still play.
60:06I think Bucky at least has potential to become startable because that's clear.
60:10Like from what Jacob said, and I think that the obvious thing, obvious solution here to me, at least is run this
60:16and operate this offense through Bucky Irving until Baker Mayfield is back.
60:19Does that mean I think they can successfully do that?
60:22It's going to require things like what Jacob said to get better.
60:25The timing in the screen game and things of that nature, using him as an outlet.
60:30They're not at least in this game. They didn't really use him that way though.
60:34And you need to use him as an extension of your run game as well in the passing game, or if you want to just generate any yards.
60:42Daniels is going to be more likely to take off and run with it.
60:46He had eight carries for 55 yards. For sure.
60:49I'm talking about design stuff more, but yeah, less than like the check down.
60:53Just like design space to get him the ball in space.
60:56But again, this is just hopeful thinking at this point.
60:58It's wishful thinking. And it's certainly more wishful for me on his front than it is for Godwin or Icbuka.
61:04Icbuka to me is somebody I'd be devastated to have on any team right now.
61:08I would kind of buy it with Bucky that maybe that would happen if it was like after week one or week
61:14two where the usage felt like it was centered around him.
61:18And it wasn't that way. You're right. It's not.
61:20Yeah. They're all sell. They compartmentalized the backfield a lot more this week.
61:24Kind of felt like they went away from him.
61:26And it's just like, I don't know. He's the best player.
61:29Yeah, sure. But he's also made some mistakes this year.
61:32Pass protection, fumbles, drops, stuff like that. But I just don't know.
61:36It doesn't. Yeah, it feels like a bad team that has no identity.
61:39I would not want to play in these guys.
61:42Can I tell you a crazy cowboys, by the way, this week and that, you know, Pickens is in this discussion.
61:48Pickens is facing a team that has been awesome against wide receivers.
61:51It's really weird. You know, only Jordan Addison has done well.
61:54Look at Jamar Chase and T Higgins. They struggled against Tampa Bay.
61:58Actually, Denzel Boston did well, but he had that fluky long touchdown.
62:01Addison did well. Matthew Golden, 21 yards on seven targets.
62:04Christian Watson, three targets, 47 yards. So that's what Pickens is going up against.
62:08Fourth best against wide receivers so far. Pickens with a good target share in each of his first three games are good enough.
62:14And then 7% last week, yesterday. But the thing I would worry about with Pickens is, man, the go routes, 30%, a little bit more than that.
62:22He looked like he's running clear outs for Lamb, essentially.
62:25But worse yesterday than in previous games. Than before, yeah.
62:27But yeah, he looks like the sacrificial ex, which is crazy because he isn't.
62:31But it's kind of, it's been a little scary.
62:34All right, what were you going to say, Dan?
62:36You can finish the show with your brilliant thought.
62:39Oh, there was nothing brilliant about it. It's Verne Burns in the chat has multiple times told us, Adam, that you and
62:45I are mispronouncing the school that Sean Tucker played at.
62:48But I think he's actually wrong. And he's giving some kind of weird Finger Lakes living, you know, growing up in the Finger Lakes type of accent.
62:56It's not Syracuse. No one has ever called it Syracuse.
62:58Agreed. Okay? It's Syracuse. Everyone who has ever pronounced it has pronounced it Syracuse.
63:02You know what? I asked my cousin who went there because I've had this debate before and I had her pronounce it for me and she said Syracuse.
63:10And I will never bend on this. John Syracuse, who the town was named after, if that's where it was, if that
63:16exists, could tell me that it's pronounced Syracuse. And I'll say, you are wrong, guy.
63:21It is clearly Syracuse. I will never say Syracuse.
63:23No one's pronouncing it Syracuse. It's insane to even consider that.
63:26Don't ever put that in our chat again because we'll never move off this, Adam and I.
63:31Is Dan, bad guy said, is Dan the laziest person on the pod?
63:35Wow, you put that on? I'm not the laziest person on this pod.
63:38When it comes to things like my background, maybe.
63:41I'm not great when it comes to decorating. Or his hair or hoodies.
63:45I'm not the hair and the hoodies. Whoa, whoa, whoa.
63:47You've just crossed the line. You just said before the show that you won't get a haircut because you want to golf.
63:54True. That's pretty lazy. That's just priorities. I'm not going to waste a Saturday getting a haircut when I can be on the course.
64:00Get a haircut on a weekday. You should never get a haircut on a Saturday.
64:05It's a great call. You got more important things to do.
64:08Get a haircut on a weekday. All right. We'll talk to you all tomorrow with the waiver wire on Fantasy Football Today.
64:14Make sure you check out Beyond the Box score.
64:16It's got its own feed, own YouTube channel. Thanks to Dan and Jacob.
64:20Talk to you tomorrow, everybody. See ya. Podcasts. Podcasts.
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