0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. And to Fantasy Pros, this is the Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:05This is the Wide Receivers Rank episode. Tara Roberts here filling in for Chris Welsh on the ranking shows this week.
0:12And I've got Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson with me as always.
0:16And before we dive in, again, just a reminder that you can find our expert rankings at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
0:22Now, guys, Fitz, you know, are you finding the wide receiver rankings challenging this year with all of the erratic quarterback play?
0:29Because it doesn't seem like it's not them. But what do we do when you don't have all of these quarterbacks that we thought we could rely on?
0:38It has been a little tougher. And, you know, sometimes, especially when it's a good receiver tethered to maybe a quarterback who's not playing well.
0:46You know, what do you do with all Drake Mays guys?
0:49Are there any Patriots wide receivers you can trust?
0:52And maybe we'll hit on that at some point during the show.
0:56Erickson, how about you? It's tough for sure. Trying to figure out how to dock certain wide receivers, especially when you get
1:03someone like Malik Neighbors where what version of James Winston are we going to get?
1:08What kind of weather are we going to be playing with Jameis Winston?
1:12How do you make that type of call? Tampa Bay, Jalen Daniels, not Jane Daniels, Jalen Daniels will be starting for the
1:19Buccaneers offense that was already bad with Baker Mayfield.
1:21You're having an undrafted rookie free agent entering as a starting quarterback and you're going to see potential narratives where it's like,
1:28well, Baker was terrible for Emeka Egbuka. Could this actually be good for Ibuka?
1:33Because that would not surprise me at all that you could see Ibuka potentially bounce back.
1:38Now, necessarily, I don't think my rankings will reflect that just because of the Daniels profile.
1:43But yeah, a lot of moving pieces here. So that's why I'm always happy.
1:47Again, when I do these ranks and do these shows, I'm always interested to see why Fitzy has players ranked in certain
1:54positions because sometimes I'm not strongly feeling in one way or another.
1:58So I like coming on this show and learning from both of you guys and Welsh as well about how you feel
2:05and also coming out smarter and educated about where my rankings are.
2:09My rankings, I feel always better after we do these shows.
2:12That's what makes the show perfect. Yeah, I love that you mentioned Ibuka.
2:16I had people asking the drop question. Are we dropping?
2:20Let's go ahead and dive into where we know he won't be, unfortunately.
2:24The top 12 wide receiver rankings. Pretty standard up top.
2:27We've got Jackson Smith in Jigbutt, number one. Then we've got Jamar Chase, Amonra St.
2:32Brown, Chris Olave holding it down there in New Orleans versus Atlanta.
2:35Could be a very positive matchup. Then we've got CeeDee Lamb, more difficult matchup at Houston.
2:40Drake London come to life. Welcome back, Michael Penix.
2:43That was so wonderful to see in a matchup this week against New Orleans.
2:48Then we've got Garrett Wilson coming off a strong week.
2:51Zay Flowers, welcome back. I was surprised he played in that game.
2:55Now he's got a good matchup, probably at full capacity against Tennessee.
2:58We've got Devontae Adams. It'll be interesting to see how these end up varying if we do get Puka Nakua back.
3:05Then Devontae Smith, Christian Watson, and then Parker Washington rounding it out at wide receiver 12.
3:10I want to pull two names out of this grouping here.
3:14Zay Flowers surprised us as the game time decision got out there on the shaky field in Brazil and did, in fact, come out healthy.
3:21So we are welcoming him back here in a matchup this week versus Tennessee back on the mainland.
3:27Thank goodness for that. ECR has him at wide receiver 8.
3:31Fitz, you're slightly higher at wide receiver 7. Erickson, a little bit lower at wide receiver 10.
3:36Fitz, why don't you start us off here with Zay Flowers?
3:39Yeah, Zay questionable last week with a hamstring injury and was limited to 21 offensive snaps.
3:44He still had five catches for 84 yards against the Cowboys and was very impactful.
3:49And so basically, Zay has played pretty much the equivalent of one game because he got pulled early in week one.
3:56Limited snaps because the Ravens were just blowing the Colts doors off in that game.
4:01Didn't play in week two. But what we have seen from Zay Flowers, he has been targeted on 48% of his routes.
4:08He is averaging 19.5 yards per target and 9.66 yards per route run.
4:12Those are cartoon Looney Tunes numbers. It's not always going to be this good, but the usage has been splendid.
4:18Like Declan Doyle has been using Zay Flowers as a slot guy.
4:22He's been in the slot 76% of the time.
4:25And Flowers is just so quick that he is almost uncoverable from the slot.
4:29If Flowers can stay healthy, he is going to have a monster season.
4:33Yeah, I feel like this was a Zay positive group in draft season from what I can recall.
4:39So we're loving this. We're reaping the benefits on this one and we're happy to have him back and healthy.
4:45Erickson, how are you feeling about Zay Flowers this week?
4:48Love Zay Flowers this week facing a Tennessee Titans defense that nobody should fear.
4:53The Ravens are back at home. So I think that he's, again, locked and loaded fantasy wide receiver one.
4:59My only hesitation with putting him as high as ECR and Fitz has him as it's Derrick Henry against Tennessee Titans.
5:05They're going to get this man his touchdowns. So that is my one callback on like, is it a Zay Flowers three touchdown game?
5:13Probably more like a Derrick Henry three touchdown game.
5:16I know I'm talking a lot about these revenge narratives this week, but I thought Warren brought up a really good point on our, the betting pro show.
5:25When we're looking at these early look ahead lines about the fact that this is the first time Derrick Henry is going to be facing his old team.
5:33And as a leader in that locker room, they're playing at home.
5:37I could see Zay Flowers in the Ravens passing game, maybe kind of taking the foot off the gas a little bit
5:44here against, are the Titans going to have a chance?
5:47And like, how are the Ravens what, like 12 point favorites at home here?
5:52I just don't think it's going to be in the third, fourth quarter.
5:56Oh, 40 pass attempts for Lamar Jackson or something like along those lines.
6:00So Zay Flowers might be able to just get 100 yards, six catches in the first half.
6:05And you're going to be happy that you started him, of course.
6:09But I do think that Derrick Henry is in for a monster, monster game.
6:14Yeah, it's a valid argument. I know it's not a statistical thing, but we just saw, and we know that Lamar would be thinking this way as well.
6:22We literally just saw Trevor Lawrence kneel at the one to have his running back to get a touchdown.
6:28So these are things that do, in fact, come into play.
6:32So as silly as it sounds, guys, this is a revenge game narrative is valid.
6:37So we could still get that massive volume because of the great matchup.
6:41But yeah, maybe the touchdowns just do tilt a little bit towards Derrick Henry.
6:45So let's talk about another player from this rankings range.
6:48We'll pull out the one that is listed last.
6:51That is Parker Washington. Parker Washington, wide receiver 12.
6:54You guys are, if it's you're on par with wide receiver 12 as your ranking.
6:59And then Erickson, a little bit higher at wide receiver nine.
7:02He's been giving us these, what I call these floor games, right?
7:06And we've got a matchup against the Cincinnati defense that came apart at the seams last week.
7:11So Erickson, talk to us about feeling a little bit more positive about Parker Washington this week.
7:17Yeah, if I had to make a decision between starting Parker Washington and Zay Flowers this week, I would start Parker Washington.
7:24And that's not to say, because you're going to start both guys, no matter what, unless you're playing in a 14 league,
7:31which again, whatever you want to do to play fantasy, I won't judge.
7:35But with Washington, I look at this game script as we could get a back and forth shootout here between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals.
7:43Whereas I don't think that's the case whatsoever when the Ravens are facing the Tennessee Titans that are three and 17 in Cam Ward's career.
7:51I just don't think the Titans are going to put up much of a fight.
7:56So this game though is back and forth and could be really fun for fantasy purposes.
8:01So Washington, to your point, has had some floor games, three for five last week for 40 yards, had a really great touchdown catch.
8:08He actually had two touchdowns, but one of them was called back.
8:12But still, he ended up scoring and doing excellent for your fantasy lineup, even in a tougher matchup, you know, getting matched
8:19up a little bit more with Christian Gonzalez. So I think that Jaguars, Bengals, last time when these teams faced last year,
8:26early in the season, it was a game where Joe Burrow actually got hurt.
8:31The total still hit 58 points. The teams combined for 750 yards of total offense.
8:35And when you look at the way the Bengals have their secondary, it's they have one lockdown guy named DJ Turner, and
8:42he's going to find Brian Thomas Jr. Well, depending if Brian Thomas Jr.
8:46is on the field or not, he's going to lock down the perimeter guy, and you're going to see Parker Washington just
8:53eat out of the slot because they just move him around so much around the formation.
8:58He always finds ways. So in a game where the Jacksonville Jaguars this season have played a lot of really weird games
9:05where they played in two games where they just blew out the other team, and then they played on the road at
9:12Denver where they kind of had like a weird like second half collapse.
9:16This is a game where you could actually see the Jaguars pushed, which has not happened up to this point.
9:23And I think that's why we haven't seen the Parker Washington ceiling game yet, because we haven't seen the Jaguars pushed.
9:29This is a game where they get pushed, and this is where Parker Washington just goes nuke.
9:35Yeah. Fitz, are you feeling the same way about Parker Washington this week?
9:39Yeah, I hate that. I feel like a fuddy-duddy being this low on him relative to Erickson.
9:44But yeah, fourth in air yard share, fifth in target share, eighth in yards per route run, Parker Washington's wide receiver, 10 in fantasy scoring.
9:52The usage has been great, and he's just a really good football player.
9:56Yeah. If it helps you, you're not the low one.
9:59I apparently have him at wide receiver, 13, I guess just because I was feeling a little bit more positive about go
10:06ahead and shoving an injured player hopefully into the rankings.
10:09But same concept there. I'm 100% with you guys.
10:12This is a great setup for Parker Washington. Before we move on to our wide receiver, 13 through 24, just a reminder
10:19about the Who Should I Start tool. If you are not sure who to start, get fast, free, start or sit advice
10:26with the Fantasy Pros Who Should I Start tool.
10:29Compare your players and get instant recommendations powered by more than 150 fantasy experts.
10:33Set your best lineup today at fantasypros.com slash start.
10:36All right, moving on to 13 through 24. At 13, we're kicking off with George Pickens, who has been a little underwhelming compared to last season.
10:44Not a great matchup against Houston this week. Then we've got Tetairoa McMillan, who is interesting to see how we might see
10:51movement with him, with Jalen Coker dealing with the injury.
10:55We have a down game last week, but a matchup against Detroit, you cannot argue with that in any way, shape or form.
11:02Then we've got Tee Higgins, Rasheed Rice, Matthew Golden, and the volume that we have been seeing.
11:07We saw that Jaden Reed, unfortunately, was put on IR.
11:10So hefty target funnels through him and Christian Watson.
11:13Then we've got Jalen Waddell, Malik Neighbors at 19, DJ Moore, Lad McConkie still hanging in there, Michael Wilson moving up in
11:20the rankings, Josh Downs moving up in the rankings, and then closing things out at 24 with Devo Samuel moving up in the rankings.
11:28This is a fun little group right here. Yeah, I get into it.
11:32I mean, I could talk about all of them with you guys.
11:36We might have to talk about all of them post-show, because I know we can't hold everyone here for this long, so
11:43we're just going to pull out a few of them.
11:46Let's pull out the first one here and talking about one that is definitely one that fantasy managers are going to be
11:53so concerned about this week because of the two poor games we've seen in a row from Jameis Winston.
11:59We've got the trade of J.J. McCarthy. We're not going to see J.J.
12:03McCarthy, but maybe he can bring some morale, that nine spirit to the locker room.
12:07ECR has Malik Neighbors at wide receiver 19. You guys are a little separated on this.
12:13Fitz, you are at wide receiver 17. Erickson, you are at wide receiver 22.
12:17Erickson, talk to us about being just a little bit more skeptical on Malik Neighbors this week.
12:22I have no idea what to do with this guy.
12:25Yeah. I really just, I'm kind of throwing my hands up trying to figure out where to rank him.
12:31I may just end up putting him at ECR because I don't really feel comfortable having a strong stance with Neighbors, where
12:38I still don't know what version of Jameis Winston we're going to get, but all the tea leaves are suggesting to me
12:45that the guy that was so fun in Tampa Bay and at times in Cleveland is not going to be taking the
12:52field for the Giants in week four, where they're just going to let him sling the ball around and be wild and
12:59throw interceptions, but throw for a ton of air yards.
13:02And that would originally be such a great case for a player like Malik Neighbors.
13:07But I'm also trying to remember that the last two games are really hard to use as his sample size moving forward
13:14when thrown in, when Jackson Dart goes down and then playing in bad weather against the Tennessee Titans, right?
13:20Last week for Neighbors, he averaged 0.9 air yards per target against the Tennessee Titans.
13:25So he had five catches for 26 yards. Like, just like the Wandel Robinson type of usage we saw last year in
13:32the Giants offense, or two years ago in the Giants offense, where the guy's not being used downfield at all.
13:38So is this like him being Rashi Rice, becoming this now PPR merchant underneath in a Matt Nagy called offense?
13:44So that concerns me about the usage. Now, the targets have obviously been there for Neighbors.
13:4928.6% target share still led the Giants. So that's obviously good.
13:53You're not afraid of this matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.
13:56I just don't know what to expect from the Giants passing game overall.
14:00So Fitz is obviously higher on Neighbors. It's a matter of just like, hey, dude, like it's Malik Neighbors.
14:06He's a freak. Like, I don't care. And that too, it's just like, when are we actually going to see like the
14:13Neighbors, that one offensive rookie of the year or the Neighbors from 2024?
14:17Like, when is that guy going to come back?
14:20And I feel like if I keep ranking him, like he's going to come back this week, he's going to come back this week.
14:28And maybe I'll be a week too late, which I don't want to be.
14:32But maybe that's where you're a little bit more optimistic, Fitz, because we know Malik Neighbors is such a talented player.
14:39Yeah. Fitz, how are you approaching this one? Yeah, that's it.
14:42We just don't know. Could we still see the YOLO Jameis Winston who rips throws 25 yards downfield in a double coverage,
14:49doesn't care, winds up throwing for 350 and three touchdowns?
14:52Certainly the last two weeks would not suggest that we're going to see that Jameis Winston.
14:57But he came into the game ice cold in week one after the Jackson dart injury.
15:02In week two, he played in wet, windy conditions where it was just impossible.
15:07Offense was so hard in that game. The Titans had one first down in the first half of that game against the Giants.
15:14I do like this matchup for the Giants in the passing game.
15:18The Cardinals have given up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers, six touchdown catches to wide receivers in three games.
15:25They've allowed 17.3 yards per catch to receivers. And what if you would think that a John Harbaugh team is maybe not
15:32going to let Jameis Winston fly his freak flag in this game and throw 40 plus passes.
15:37But what if there's no choice? The Giants just lost Brian Burns and it's not a great defense to begin with.
15:44We've seen this secondary just torched. What if they have no choice but to get into a shootout with the Cardinals?
15:50And, you know, it sounds weird to look at a Giants-Cardinals game as a potential high scoring affair.
15:56I think it could be. And maybe if we see the better version of Jameis Winston, like Malik neighbors could dramatically outkick expectations.
16:03Do you guys think that with the addition of JJ McCarthy, Winston may feel more to be like, well, I got nothing to lose, right?
16:11Like they've already kind of looked at like they're going to add another quarterback anyway.
16:16Like Winston to me seems like a guy was like, I really want to hold on to the job.
16:22I really got to be careful versus like, dude, I don't care, man.
16:26I'm like, I'm just going to go out because that's what we talked about last week too.
16:31And the weather really kind of nuked any type of appeal with neighbors.
16:36Cause I talked about it. I feel like kind of more glowingly last week about, Hey, it's the Titans defense.
16:42Like you still got to believe in Malik neighbors.
16:45Target share is still there. Winston came in cold weather, obviously nuked it.
16:49So is it just a matter of just throw out those first two games and we just go back, see what neighbors was in week one.
16:57Obviously it's not Jackson Dart. That's on our center, but a Jameis Winston, that's maybe a little bit more familiar with the
17:04offense and in full Yola, man, dude, I know I'm convincing myself.
17:08It's hard. Yeah. I love it. I love it.
17:11Especially because this is perfect. Cause the next player that we're going to talk about is Michael Wilson.
17:16So yeah, maybe we, maybe we see Jameis Winston look across the field at the, at kind of like, are they like,
17:23you know, kindred spirits there with Jacoby Brissett of somebody who just loves to throw like we're career are, unfortunately we've turned into career backups.
17:31Now we're at that point in the stage. They call for us and we, we, when we are needed, we put up that aggressive, crazy volume.
17:39So yeah, Jacoby Brissett pushing volume and inspiring Jameis to be that core Jameis Winston.
17:44And they just go back and forth. I could see it happen from a game script.
17:49I mean, we are seeing Michael Wilson coming off a game with 17 targets, pure, pure Jacoby Brissett vibes there.
17:55So let's talk about Michael Wilson, ECR 23, as he ascends as the clear wide receiver one.
18:01There's no question now anymore. He is the wide receiver one for the Arizona Cardinals.
18:06You guys a little bit further back, a little bit more apprehensive than ECR Erickson.
18:10You've got him at wide receiver 25 fits at wide receiver 28.
18:14How are you approaching this? Is it, is it a skepticism around the matchup?
18:18Because we do have some, you know, additional new young bodies there.
18:22Um, in New York. So maybe we get, um, you know, a decent matchup here, or is it just skepticism around the
18:29fact that again, you know, ultimately the first look at this offense is Trey McBride anyway.
18:34So, um, Fitz, how are you approaching this with Michael Wilson?
18:38Yeah, this show is like rankings therapy, uh, because just as Erickson was worried about maybe having Malik neighbors too low in
18:45case we see, uh, the Jameis Winston involved, like I'm worried I'm too low on Michael Wilson.
18:50Like, all right, get a load of some of this statistical weirdness for Michael Wilson so far.
18:55He has a 95.2% route share, which is second only behind Jamar Chase.
19:00He has, uh, a 25.6 target, uh, 25.6% target share, ranks 11th there.
19:04He ranks 11th in air yard share at 42.6%.
19:06But then in efficiency, yards per route run, 1.38.
19:09He ranks 83rd. Yards per target, 5.43. He ranks 112th.
19:12So in the case of Michael Wilson, he's been more busy than good, but the Cardinals totally need him to be busy because Marvin Harrison Jr.
19:21has just, he's catastrophically bad now. Like Marvin Harrison Jr.
19:24is averaging 0.7 yards per route run. Um, and I think we're going to keep seeing these high target numbers for Michael
19:31Wilson because you almost can't play Marvin Harrison. He's been so bad.
19:35And then it's just journeyman Kendrick Bourne behind him.
19:37So man, I might have to come up on Wilson just because I think he's going to keep seeing the target volume,
19:44even though maybe Michael Wilson doesn't warrant this sort of target volume.
19:48Yeah. Surprise guys. I'm the high man here. I've already got Michael Wilson at 21.
19:53I'm feeling it. I'm feeling the vibes in terms of just pure volume.
19:57And Marvin Harrison Jr. Out there running cardio. Um, unfortunately Wilson hasn't been as efficient, but yeah, just pure volume is getting him there.
20:05Erickson, how are you feeling about him this week?
20:07Dude, Marvin losing all that muscle he put on the last couple of seasons, just going to waste with all the cardio.
20:14So, I mean, Michael Wilson just, yes, clearly the number one wide receiver.
20:18That's something that I was definitely wrong about during draft season last year when Marvin Harrison Jr.
20:24Was healthy. Michael Wilson was not targeted, but when he was out of the lineup, Michael Wilson got fed.
20:30And now we're just seeing that carry over even with Marvin Harrison Jr.
20:34Healthy in the lineup. So, 18 targets actually last week when you include one that he got eliminated from a penalty, but
20:4199 incomplete air yards, 50% air yard share, five red zone targets.
20:45He's actually only three targets behind Trey McBride on the season.
20:48So, in Leeds, Arizona this year with a 41% air yard share, that's top 12 in the NFL.
20:54I would say that he usually has really big games against the 49ers.
20:58So, I talked about this last week because Michael Wilson was actually like my sneaky wide receiver play that was going outside
21:05the top 36 because you look at the box score against the 49ers, he absolutely cooks in garbage time against the San Francisco 49ers.
21:12So, going back to the game script here, negative game script against San Francisco 49ers is very different than playing the New York Giants on the road.
21:21So, even if he's seeing a similar share of the pass attempts in this offense, it's probably not going to be this type of level of usage.
21:30But still, I mean, if he gets 10 targets, you're going to be happy playing that guy as a top 24 wide
21:36receiver against a Giants secondary that I'm not particularly afraid of.
21:40And I think the thing to point out too about how involved he is with this offense, Wilson is seventh in the
21:47NFL and first read target share at 35%. So, we heard rumblings this offseason that Puka Nakua, or excuse me, that the
21:54Michael Wilson was going to be in the Puka Nakua role, which has obviously always seen a very high first read target share.
22:01And that has been correct through the first three games of the season.
22:05So, concentrated target share between Trey McBride and Michael Wilson.
22:08Yeah, I think that there is a ceiling play for him here.
22:12Not to the extent that it was last week.
22:15So, that's the only thing I would push back on.
22:18Just don't chase or don't expect like 17 targets again, but still eight to nine targets.
22:23And even before this last game, he still had been seeing pretty strong usage.
22:28Yeah. Let's talk about one more wide receiver in this range.
22:31Josh Downs moving on up, seeing a lot of targets, but unfortunately not giving the level of fantasy production that we would
22:38hope for the amount of usage that he's seeing.
22:41But let's talk it through. We've got ECR as wide receiver 22.
22:45You guys are the bread in this sandwich. Fitz, you've got him at wide receiver 21.
22:50Erickson at wide receiver 23. Fitz, talk to us about Josh Downs.
22:54Yeah, he hasn't made the most out of all the targets the last couple of weeks.
22:5920 targets over his last two games. Seven catches, 72 yards.
23:02No touchdowns against the Chiefs. Five catches, 77 yards.
23:05No touchdowns against the Texans in those two games.
23:08But it was the Chiefs and the Texans. Two pretty tough defenses.
23:12So I guess I like that Downs' role seems to be changing with Alec Pierce out due to this heel injury.
23:18Mainly, he's being used further downfield. He had an average depth of target of 7.2 yards or lower in each of his first three seasons in the NFL.
23:27Downs' average depth of target so far this year, 11.5 yards.
23:30And last year, he averaged 9.8 yards per catch.
23:33This year, 13.3 yards per catch. So a lot of targets.
23:37He's getting more valuable targets further downfield. And not bad stat lines the last two years against really tough defenses.
23:43Like, he's so important to the Colts passing game, which has just been, you know, the Alec Pierce injury and losing that downfield dimension.
23:51I think they have to make Josh Downs a little bit more vertical.
23:55And that's going to make him more valuable. Yeah, you mentioned the matchups.
23:59I mean, the targets have been there, but we can make the excuse again.
24:03It's, you know, about finding the right excuse, as we talked about the Giants, for why things have been a little underwhelming.
24:10And the matchups have been difficult. Now you get a Washington matchup where we have seen, you know, hey, Sonny Stiles looks incredible.
24:17But overall, it's not a good defense. And they're still struggling to get on track.
24:22Same thing with Indianapolis. We've got Daniel Jones, who continues to push, despite the fact that he's not looked particularly great, right?
24:29Still pushing aggressive volume, you know, over 30 attempts in every single game.
24:33So you know there's a certain guarantee in volume.
24:36And finally, you got a nice, easy matchup where I think this one is going to hit the over.
24:42So yeah, this seems like a very appropriate space to put him in and, you know, have a little bit more faith
24:49that we're finally going to get some more yardage and touchdowns here.
24:53Erickson, how are you feeling about him? This is all we ever wanted, right?
24:57It was Josh Downs in a full-time role that wasn't always just all the underneath targets.
25:02And I get the production has been kind of lackluster, but I think that he's just checking the boxes of, okay, it's going to happen, right?
25:11He's seeing volume. He's seeing downfield usage. He just needs to find the end zone and needs to start capitalizing on all
25:17the opportunities that he's getting in the offense. He leads the team in target share through three games, 25.5%.
25:23That ranks 11th among all wide receivers. Also seventh among all wide receivers in terms of area yard share at 44%.
25:30Both of those would be career highs. So I think that if you have downs, obviously you were expecting more through the
25:37last couple of weeks, but it's coming. And I think that we've all kind of talked about how this commander's defense, you attack it through the air.
25:46Fitz mentioned on the running back show, how the commander's run defense hasn't nearly been as bad as we expected entering the
25:53season, which suggests to me that maybe more of a tough day sledding for Jonathan Taylor and a big game for this
25:59passing attack between guys like Josh Downs, Tyler Warren should be in a smash spot here because the commander has been also really bad against tight ends.
26:08So, and I'm just not necessarily buying that Keenan Allen is going to be seeing double digit targets every single week.
26:15And I think downs is going to capitalize on the opportunities he's been getting because he's good.
26:20Like he's a very good wide receiver. He's always been a high target type of player.
26:25Great in separation score. Now he's just got to put it all together.
26:29I think that happens. The London people are going to be treated well to Josh Downs this week.
26:35Yeah. Yeah. We've sent some good offenses over now because, hey, Marcus Mariota is holding it down and we got the resurgence of Terry McLaurin.
26:43So they can have some nice offensive firepower there in the international game this week.
26:47Moving on to our next grouping of rankings, wide receivers 25 through 36.
26:52We have got Jameson Williams at Carolina, which is interesting, right?
26:55Because we've got Jameson who has really been struggling in Carolina that has traditionally been very tough against the past.
27:01But unfortunately, they're just beat up so bad that maybe this is just another lighted up scenario for Detroit.
27:07Maybe Jameson can finally push through. DK Metcalf after that.
27:11Terry McLaurin bouncing back last week against Seattle. Tough matchup.
27:14Jordan Addison against Miami. We talked about that one.
27:17Luther Burden. Devon Vele. Stefan Diggs at 31. Emeka Abuka unfortunately falling back there.
27:21We talked about that a little bit earlier. Then we've got Denzel Boston, Nico Collins, Romeo Dobbs, and then Carnell Tate closing it out at wide receiver 36.
27:30All right. We got a good little group to talk about here because this is a range where a lot of start sick questions come from.
27:38And we'll start off with one who is very questionable in DK Metcalf, who did get the touchdown last week, but still looked a little bit sketchy.
27:47So you guys are pretty separated on this one.
27:49So I'm ready to hear the arguments because I too am very torn on what to do with DK Metcalf, especially in this short week here.
27:58ECR has him at wide receiver 26. Fitz, you're just slightly above at wide receiver 25.
28:03And Erickson further back at wide receiver 31. Fitz, should we feel more comfortable with DK Metcalf this week?
28:09I'm not sure. And I'm not sure I'm ready to go full bore into a debate with Erickson here because I see why Erickson might be reluctant.
28:17Like the efficiency has been really poor for Metcalf so far.
28:214.1 yards per target, 0.82 yards per route run.
28:23And DK Metcalf keeps running into good cornerbacks. Christian Gonzalez, DJ Turner.
28:27Now he's going to run into Denzel Ward this week.
28:30But he is averaging eight targets a game. He's had at least three catches in every game.
28:36He ranks 22nd among receivers in air yard share.
28:39And the Browns have given up the seventh most fantasy points to wide receiver.
28:43So I guess you're just betting on the volume here and hoping that DK Metcalf, this contested catch specialist, can pluck a
28:50few and maybe get in the end zone again.
28:53Yeah. Erickson, talk us out of this one, please.
28:56Because, I mean, I thought it's been so bad that I thought Aaron Rodgers was just going to look DK Metcalf in
29:03the face and say, no more targets for you, bud.
29:062 for 5 for 31 yards and the touchdown last week.
29:09So that kind of saved him for fantasy football purposes.
29:12But he was getting locked down by DJ Turner basically all game.
29:16I expect that to be similar this week against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night against Denzel Ward.
29:22Because you look at the Browns defense, they're a slot funnel defense.
29:26I think that the expectation for Metcalf is going to be the TMAC box score from last week, where I think it
29:33was like 2 for 5 for 30 yards. And does Metcalf find the end zone or not?
29:38Because if he doesn't score, I think that he's probably going to be a bust on Thursday night, just given the fact
29:45that the Browns are giving up way more production to slot receivers than perimeter receivers.
29:50And defending Metcalf is really easy for opposing defenses because they don't move him around.
29:54He has been in motion on 0.6% of his snaps.
29:58That is the lowest rate among all wide receivers this season.
30:01And the lowest of his career. So it's basically so easy for the Browns to be like, okay, where's TK Metcalf?
30:08Okay, Denzel Ward, you go there. And then he's out of the play, right?
30:12Because Metcalf is not winning in any of these one-on-one scenarios against these top tier cornerbacks like Fitz mentioned.
30:18And that's just how it's been for him. Now, it's not all his fault.
30:23Like, you don't get to pick who your opponents are.
30:26But he's not winning in man-to-man coverage, which is why his efficiency has been so poor.
30:31You saw his targets also fall off last week, not just because of the matchup, because Michael Pittman Jr.
30:37was also back in line. Michael Pittman Jr. almost has as many yards as Metcalf does.
30:42He's played one less game and has significantly less target volume.
30:45So the fact that it's even close and Aaron Rodgers seemingly hates Michael Pittman Jr.
30:50Like, to me, this is just, I don't want to start my fantasy week with a dud.
30:55And DK Metcalf seems like destined to put up a dud performance.
30:59Like, in the same game, I'd rather start Denzel Boston.
31:02I think that he's in a much better spot.
31:05You look at the Browns here this year. They've used man coverage on 41% of opponent drawbacks.
31:10That is the highest rate in the NFL. Metcalf's yard per route run against man coverage has declined in each season since 2021.
31:18I just talked about how he's not winning against man coverage this year.
31:22Yeah, yeah. I completely agree on that one. Touchdown dependent, cross our fingers, and just outside of that, the yardage might not be there this week.
31:30Let's talk about someone who the touchdown did show up for.
31:34And God bless Case Keenum. Luther Burden brought back to life.
31:37ECR, wide receiver 29. And you guys are super far apart on this one.
31:41So this one will be a lot of fun.
31:44Erickson has him all the way up at wide receiver 20.
31:48In case Keenum we trust, maybe. And then Fitz has him at wide receiver 31.
31:52That is a big gap. Fitz, I'll give you the chance to bring a little bit of skepticism around this one.
31:59So it was encouraging usage for Burden on Monday night against the Eagles.
32:03He had played 61% and 57% of the offensive snaps in the Bears' first two games.
32:08Snap share was up to 73% in Week 3.
32:11But I guess it's still Case Keenum. And as well as he played in Week 3, I'm not sure we get the encore in Week 4.
32:19And the Bears' supporting cast members are getting an annoying number of targets.
32:23Guys like Kalief Raymond and Zavian Thomas and Sam Rausch.
32:27So it's just the production is being chopped up more ways than I think we thought it was going to be chopped up for the Bears this season.
32:35So it just seems like, although we did get them leaning into Luther Burden with 11 targets on Monday, I'm not totally
32:42confident in a repeat of that against the Jets.
32:45Yeah, I mean, Erickson, talk to us about it.
32:48How, like, okay, make us believe that this is the new version of Luther Burden that we are going to be seeing.
32:55Well, despite all the turmoil that the Bears' pass catchers have been for us in fantasy this season, through three weeks, Luther
33:02Burden obviously gets the boost from the last game they played, but he leads the team with a 25.3% target share.
33:09So he actually has been the most consistent, aside from Kalief Raymond, of the Bears' catchers we actually drafted in fantasy and
33:16are actually been starting in our lineups. I know I was wrong about Luther Burden last week in my social short.
33:22I thought that I said to bench him for Adonai Mitchell, which obviously you could not do because Adonai Mitchell didn't end up playing.
33:30So hopefully you were at least able to slide Luther Burden in last second.
33:34But monster performance, and he was involved from the jump.
33:37It was so clear and obvious from the first drive that this was going to be a big Luther Burden game and kind of attacking the Philadelphia slot.
33:46Cooper DeGene hasn't really played up to his normal level this season.
33:50He's been struggling a little bit defending the slot.
33:53So you saw seven of Luther Burden's 11 targets come in the first half.
33:57And considering how successful it was, I don't think they're going to go away from featuring him as both a receiver and a rusher.
34:05I mean, the fact that they gave him a rushing attempt on that pop pass type of play, and then he had
34:12to pushing into the end zone, like, that's really encouraging.
34:15And then you could look at guys like Loveland and Roma Dunze, who just came short of falling into the end zone on their opportunities.
34:23So the Jets defense also not afraid whatsoever. Fourth worst team versus slot receivers this season.
34:28Fourth best matchup for receivers overall. Burden hasn't been just pigeonholed into the slot this year.
34:33It's been close to like a 40-60 split, because obviously Khalif Raymond's been playing in the slot as well.
34:39And I'm also intrigued by the Ben Johnson versus Aaron Glenn type of matchup here.
34:44But I got to give the credit and advantage to Ben Johnson, dude.
34:48Like, if you asked him, you know, under a lie detector test, who should be on the Madden cover, he'd probably say himself, right?
34:55He's like, no, I deserve to be on the Madden cover.
34:59Ben Johnson, he's going to be the one that brings back NFL coach.
35:03A game that's been defunct since like 2006. Ben Johnson is going to be like, nah, we need to bring back NFL
35:10GM or NFL coach, the video game, and Ben Johnson is going to be on the cover in 2027.
35:16Yeah, yeah. I mean, and in your defense, I think, you know, your conservative play on Burden last week, and the Mitchell,
35:23if he had not just that little finger, if that hadn't happened.
35:27Dude, when I saw the picture of his hand, I was like, okay, like this is not going to happen.
35:33And no player needed a hand injury less than Adonai Mitchell, who barely has hands as it is.
35:39Just start. It was the right call. I mean, we were in for 10 targets.
35:43I know that was coming. But let's talk about Denzel Boston.
35:47You know, Erickson, you mentioned that you would start Denzel Boston over DK Metcalf.
35:51I'm on board with that thought process. I mean, when we're looking at Denzel Boston and the way he has made the
35:58most out of his opportunities, it's been a lot more impressive than the lack of efficiency we've seen from DK Metcalf.
36:05Boston further back in ECR, though. Wide receiver 33.
36:08Erickson, you've got him at wide receiver 30 and Fitz at wide receiver 34.
36:12So we are being a little bit more cautious here with him.
36:16Because again, you know, matchup one, a short week, one, and Deshaun Watson, you know, three.
36:21I think I added up there wrong. But Erickson, talk to us about trust levels with Denzel Boston this week.
36:27He's been great. As a rookie in his first three games with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback, he's played a full-time role in this offense.
36:35And I think that, unless there's any arguments, has he not been the best rookie wide receiver so far in this class
36:42through the first three games of the season? I don't think that's really up for debate from a statistical standpoint, from just
36:49looking at how well he's played on the field, taking over as that ex-receiver.
36:53That's not an easy job. We've seen a lot of receivers fail being put right into that X spot from day one.
37:00Be like, all right, you need to be the number one receiver on our team.
37:05You're going to draw the number one coverage. And Denzel Boston has delivered more often than not.
37:10So I know last week, it was more about getting Casey Concepcion involved, seeing a boatload of targets, but Concepcion kind of airballed, right?
37:18He was brutally inefficient last week. And if I'm a coach, I don't see that and think, we got to get Concepcion more involved.
37:26That doesn't mean that he's going to be totally phased out of the offense.
37:30But I think it also means like, hey man, like, let's get back to Boston, dude.
37:35Like that's been, what's been working for us. So I know kind of coming off a down game compared to weeks one
37:42and two, just two catches for 41 yards on four targets, but he still caught the two point conversion.
37:48So we know that he has red zone equity and he actually had another catch for 23 yards that was taken off by a holding penalty.
37:56So really when you look at his true receiving line, three catches for 64 yards, that is kind of what his baseline
38:03has been through the first three weeks of the season.
38:06And then when you look at the matchup, the Steelers defense has given up almost all of its production to wide receivers on the perimeter.
38:1491% has gone to the outside, which is exactly where Denzel Boston lines up.
38:19Fifth most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
38:22247 receiving yards on downfield throws to wide receivers aligned out wide.
38:26That is ninth most in the NFL. That is like, this is like Denzel Boston's bread and butter.
38:31Like how bad the matchup is for DK Metcalf is how good the matchup is for Denzel Boston.
38:37So I'm going to ride the rookie here entering his fourth game.
38:41And I think that a lot of people are going to be like, man, like why did he fall to the second round?
38:48Like why did the 49ers not take this guy?
38:51And they took Deson Stribbling instead. But I mean, I think that he's going to show everyone like, hey, I should have
38:58been a first round pick and the Browns got a steal with him falling to round two.
39:03Yeah, honestly, maybe it works out if Denver or if the Browns turn things around because he has an opportunity to be the wide receiver one.
39:11Whereas maybe he could have ended up pigeonholed there, taken where Omar Cooper Jr.
39:16was taken by the Jets. So maybe, maybe it'll work out at the end of the day.
39:21Fitz, talk to us about Denzel Boston. Yeah. And the buzz was great around Denzel Boston, like all the way going back
39:28to training camp where all the beat writers for the Browns seem to be like, oh yeah, this guy's going to be a star.
39:36Like he was definitively good. And Deshaun Watson has not wrecked the fantasy value of his pass catchers the way maybe we
39:43expected was going to be the case going into this season.
39:46So I've nothing bad to say about Denzel Boston.
39:49I'm starting him in two leagues this week. I'm mad that Erickson has me outflanked on him.
39:54He's averaging 2.27 yards per route run, 13 yards per target.
39:58He's been fantastic. Don't hesitate to fire him up this week if you're on the fence with him.
40:03One guy that you guys are both on the fence about and further back compared to ECR is Romeo Dobbs.
40:10ECR wide receiver 35 and both of you have him at wide receiver 38.
40:14I believe I am in agreement with you guys in terms of the skepticism around this.
40:19I don't even have to ask if it's the skepticism around Romeo Dobbs himself or Drake May just because it's probably a combination of all of that.
40:28So Erickson, talk to us about Romeo Dobbs. Too hot, too cold, just right.
40:32That's kind of what it felt like with Romeo Dobbs at wide receiver 38.
40:37And I guess this is how it feels, Fitz, to have Romeo Dobbs as your team's number one wide receiver for a couple of certain weeks.
40:45It's not a really fun experience. A lot of up and downs and a lot of potential.
40:50We're like, okay, like you can kind of see it coming to fruition.
40:54Like, okay, this could be a good play. And then Dobbs just kind of always leaves you wanting just a little bit more.
41:02Even this last game, he and Drake May had a chance to connect on a big play in the red zone, but
41:09they were not on the same page. So Dobbs has kind of put up mediocre production.
41:14He did have that one big play in week two, but this past week, three for four for 49 yards.
41:20He did have another target, but it was raced by a penalty on his own.
41:25So 13 yards wiped off. So he could have had a bigger game, five targets for 62 yards.
41:30Target share is in kind of steady week over week.
41:33Matt Collins outdid him this past week, but the week before it was Romeo Dobbs that was more involved.
41:39So these are kind of the top two projected receivers from the Patriots.
41:44Matt Collins seems to have more trust of Drake May, but I don't know if Matt Collins is actually better than Romeo
41:51Dobbs just because Matt Collins, I think is a low ceiling type of player and really only gets more involved when the
41:57attention is put on other players in an offense, kind of like what we've seen from the Patriots.
42:03So Dobbs obviously is getting more coverage torn his way because there is no AJ Brown.
42:08They're expecting negative game script playing in Buffalo. So it's just a matter of just Dobbs make that big play or catch the touchdown.
42:16Made a big play in week two, didn't do it in week three.
42:20So wide receiver three, flex Dobbs, take it away if it's.
42:23Yeah, I just, he hasn't had more than four targets in a game this season.
42:28So is he the number one receiver without AJ Brown around?
42:32I don't know. He's kind of a co-number one with Matt Collins.
42:35Dobbs had that 63 yard catch Erickson mentioned in week two.
42:39That play accounted for 43.4% of Dobbs receiving yardage thus far.
42:42Oof. Um, yeah. And I, the only reason I've got Romeo Dobbs inside the top 40, and I'm already behind what?
42:49Five spots in ECR is because the bills, uh, might not have Christian Benford.
42:53They're very good outside cornerback for this game. He had some sort of foot injury last week, spotted in a walking boot
43:00after the game, I guess is anyone in a walking boot immediately after a game, probably not playing the next week.
43:07And that was kind of big. Dobbs has lined up outside on 86.5% of his snaps.
43:12Probably would have been running a lot of his routes into the coverage of Christian Benford.
43:17So maybe this gives Dobbs a chance to, uh, maybe hit on another big play that can make his day.
43:23Yeah. It needs to be a big play because we were seeing in real time why they traded for AJ Brown after
43:30they made that big contract investment into Romeo Dobbs.
43:33Let's wrap things up here with some deeper plays.
43:36Erickson's got one that, um, it's fun because we talk about the Miami offense and the Miami team, the Miami defense, but
43:43they do put out flex worthy wide receivers because they do have to throw because they often play from behind.
43:49Uh, Malik Washington, wide receiver 41 in ECR. You've got him as wide receiver 39.
43:54Erickson, talk to us about Malik Washington. Double digit targets last week for Malik Washington caught just five of them for 56 yards.
44:01However, he did have a touchdown that was called back.
44:04So he's being the number one wide receiver in the Dolphins offense.
44:08They obviously lost a chance. So there are targets and opportunities to be had in this offense.
44:14I think that Chris Bell is going to continue to be involved.
44:17He's looked pretty good, especially if we don't get Caleb Douglas for another week, I'm expecting Malik Washington potentially to flirt with another double digit targets.
44:26I think it's pretty interesting when you look at what happens to these Dolphins receivers when Malik Willis has been blitzed.
44:32So according to the fantasy points data suite, Malik Washington has a 32% target share when Malik Willis has been blitzed.
44:39So far this season, what do we know about Brian Flores?
44:4280% blitz rate is coming down in week four.
44:45So yeah, I'm confident Washington's going to get targets.
44:48I don't know how efficient he's going to be.
44:51He has not been efficient really at all this season with all the volume that he has gotten because he has gotten a lot of opportunities.
44:59But as a deeper play, I think that's the process I'm willing to follow here against the Minnesota Vikings.
45:05So don't know if he's going to score a touchdown.
45:08Obviously, I like this a lot more if Caleb Douglas is also inactive, but coaching staff seemed kind of lukewarm on whether
45:15he was going to be able to play in week four, at least early in the week.
45:20So also another cap to his feather. He got two carries last week too.
45:25So although Ollie Gordon will kind of Bogart the majority of backfield touches if there is no Jalen Wright, Malik Washington, again,
45:32is a guy that's really good after the catch.
45:35He might get a couple of handoffs as well.
45:38Really good point on that one. And look, I'm a Chris Beltruther, but we should not step in the long term, right?
45:44But we shouldn't step over production that we're getting right now just because we love someone long term.
45:50So I'm with you on this one. Pat, talk to us about yours.
45:54You've got Trey Tucker and a little higher than ECR.
45:57He's at wide receiver 30 or 43 in ECR and you've got him at wide receiver 38.
46:03Yeah, he had the big week in week two over 100 yards and a touchdown, a little quieter in week three with
46:10the return of Brock Bowers, a kind of dominated receiving production for the Raiders.
46:14But I kind of think the return of Bowers ultimately helps Trey Tucker.
46:18It just gives defenses something else to think about.
46:21And obviously defenses are going to be very concerned trying to bottle up Brock Bowers in impossible task.
46:27But they're playing the Raiders, or the Raiders are playing the Chiefs this week.
46:31Figure with the way the Chiefs offense has been humming, they might force the Raiders to throw to keep up.
46:38Good situation there potentially. And I believe Kirk Cousins right now is leading the NFL in touchdown passes.
46:43He is. He is putting up touchdowns at a miraculous clip.
46:47We've got a 3-0 Raiders, so a matchup of two undefeated teams.
46:50So I'm with you on this one. So perhaps might have to see a little bit more pass volume in this one
46:57as the Raiders defend their undefeated start. This is the quarterbacks and tight ends rank episode.
47:02Tara Roberts here filling in for Chris Walsh. And we're doing the ranking shows this week.
47:08And I've got Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson. And this is going to be super fun.
47:13I'm very excited for this conversation because with all the sad quarterback performances that we have gotten from guys who were supposed
47:20to be our weekly, reliable, elite QBs, we have now accepted that it is time to move on.
47:25And we've got fresh faces in the top 12.
47:28Same kind of deal for tight ends as well as their guys making moves.
47:32And by the way, if you are looking for all of the rankings, you can find all the expert rankings at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
47:40Erickson, what has been your approach to dealing with all of these chaotic quarterbacks?
47:44Have you been more of a start to our studs?
47:48Or are you willing to take a little bit of risk?
47:51Is Tyler Shuck a risk anymore? I think that that's just been the default where if you were able to scoop him
47:58up after strong week one, heading into week two, he has really been the savior for a lot of these teams that
48:05if you invested in Drake May or Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, the waiver wire has had a couple of guys, namely like a Tyler Shuck.
48:13I know I streamed Geno Smith in a couple of spots after Fitz talked about all the NFC North matchup he had.
48:20Geno Smith, QB three last week. So that's kind of my play.
48:24Luckily, the Trevor Lawrence hit, the Trevor Lawrence pick, he was my other highest drafted quarterback during draft season.
48:30He's panned out, but my other two highest drafted guys, Caleb Williams, obviously hurt and Justin Herbert, just ultra bust.
48:36And he's basically been dropped because he's facing the Seattle Seahawks this week.
48:40So that's kind of my approach when it comes to the quarterback.
48:44Yeah, streaming has been fun. Fitz, what about you?
48:47Yeah, it's been pretty tough. I kind of spread my bets around.
48:50So I've got, you know, my share of Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, even spent up for Lamar Jackson in a spot or two.
48:58But then other spots, it's been Kyler Murray or Bo Nix or Drake May and things have been disappointing.
49:04So it's not a bad week or a bad year to stream so far.
49:08There have been some quarterbacks coming through, like lesser regarded quarterbacks playing in good matchups who have popped like Geno Smith last week against the Lions.
49:16So sometimes if you pick the right matchup, you can get a surprisingly good week from a quarterback people maybe aren't excited about.
49:24Yes, I completely agree on that one. Let's go ahead and dive in to talk about our quarterbacks.
49:29Let me give you guys the top 12 quarterbacks.
49:32We've got, of course, Josh Allen. That's never a question.
49:35Followed up by Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes coming in strong off of the ACL.
49:40Erickson's guy and my guy too as well. A lot of guys.
49:44Trevor Lawrence at QB4 has been just overall very steady.
49:47Then we've got Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, who has been just lighting it up.
49:52Tyler Shuck, who is again, now he's not a streaming option.
49:56This is our reliable weekly starter, people, followed by Dak Prescott at 10.
50:00Bryce Young, we're looking for the bounce back here as he popped up as a streaming option last week.
50:06Better performance and a better opportunity in terms of matchup this week.
50:10And then we've got Jordan Love rounding things out.
50:13And I think we're also going to talk about one more who was originally in the top 12, but unfortunately fell out there and falling back in rankings.
50:21We'll talk about just how far he is falling back.
50:25But let's start off positive with Brock Purdy, who has been absolutely lighting it up despite the fact that the 49ers just continue to be completely depleted, unfortunately.
50:33And we've got this matchup against Denver, who is traditionally a tough matchup, but not impenetrable, especially for a guy like Brock
50:40Purdy, who can go several different routes. So Brock Purdy coming in here at QB8 and ECR.
50:46And it's funny because you guys are on two completely different spectrums.
50:50Erickson, not remotely afraid of that Denver defense. He is ready to attack it with reckless abandon with Brock Purdy at QB3.
50:56And then Fitz, just a little bit more conservative, still very startable.
51:00We're not fading Brock Purdy because of the matchup, but you've got him at QB10.
51:05I agree with this approach from both of you as well in terms of just making sure that we are, we're starting him.
51:12We're not, we're not taking any risk because he's been so reliable.
51:16So Erickson, talk to us about why we are going all in this week on Brock Purdy.
51:21Because Brock Purdy is playing like an MVP right now through the first three weeks of the season.
51:27You look at his MVP odds, I think that he is the second shortest behind only Josh Allen in the MVP voting in terms of the betting odds.
51:36And that's because he's just been absolutely balling out.
51:39If you look at him since week 15 of last year, no quarterback has scored more fantasy points than Brock Purdy.
51:45Coming off another game where he was absolutely fantastic, 297 yards, four touchdowns, also had two carries for 34 yards.
51:52I think that's what's actually being undersold with Brock Purdy is he's a dual threat quarterback, not in the form of like
51:59a Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, but this dude is adding value with his legs every single week.
52:04He actually had a 45 yard scramble touchdown last week that got called back due to a holding penalty.
52:10So he can score from anywhere in terms of rushing, in terms of throwing the football.
52:15And the Denver Broncos defense, yeah, not as elite as it has been in the past.
52:20They've given up a lot of QB9 finishes to both Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes this season.
52:26And I would argue that Brock Purdy is playing better than both those guys.
52:30They're also not playing at Denver. They're playing at home against the Denver Broncos.
52:35So I think that Brock Purdy is still a lock and low to top 10 quarterback.
52:40I did move him down initially. I think I had him up at like QB3 earlier when we first put the show sheet together.
52:47So I did just like pump the brakes slightly on that because I did want to consider that he has faced basically
52:54the hungover Rams and then the Cardinals and the Miami Dolphins who are probably two of the worst defensive secondaries.
53:01But that's because they're playing the 49ers offense that is right now operating at one of the highest levels in the NFL.
53:07So I just want to stay in the flames with Brock Purdy.
53:11I don't want to mess around with like Brock Purdy, Jared Gottliek.
53:15I just want to keep playing the guy that's playing at MVP level.
53:19I like it. I've got him at QB7. I wanted to go in as aggressively as you.
53:25I just, the only fear I had was like, okay, do we have, do we have Mike Evans?
53:30So maybe my rankings will address once we, once we get the final news on him.
53:35He's still day to day with that rib injury.
53:38Fitz, you've got him at QB10. Yeah. And so the Broncos past defense hasn't been great so far this year, although they
53:45have gone against Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, and Matt Stafford.
53:48But those guys did score points against the Broncos.
53:51So I think it's still a very good past defense and I may be docking Brock Purdy a little bit for matchup.
53:58Denver is still 10th in DVOA against the pass.
54:01But I think I'm more concerned about the possibility that he's going to have to play without Mike Evans, who has this rib injury.
54:08And Dejan Stribling is hurt. And Demarcus Robinson is hurt.
54:12And if Evans can't play, the 49ers top three receivers are probably going to be Debo Samuel, Jordan Watkins, and Jacob Cowing.
54:19So granted, there will be passes thrown to George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey too.
54:23But we're running out of bodies here and we don't know for sure that Trent Williams is going to play.
54:29He got a stinger last week. I think the news is positive and they expect him to play this week.
54:36I'm probably going to move Purdy down another couple of spots if Trent Williams doesn't play the all-world left tackle.
54:42So I just worry that Purdy is running out of wide receivers and I do think it's a pretty tough matchup.
54:49So at QB10, I feel like that's not being disrespectful, but I'm a little bearish on Purdy this year or this week
54:55relative to what he's been this year so far.
54:58Yeah, very understandable. Great point about the offensive line situation.
55:01So guys, just make sure that you keep your eyes on that one.
55:06Now, of course, we're going to talk about Tyler Shuck.
55:09Why would we not? ECR, QB9, Erickson, QB6, Fitz, QB7, and I got you guys beat.
55:14I'm at QB5. I am drinking the Tyler Shuck Kool-Aid and I will not stop on that one.
55:19Erickson, talk to us about Tyler Shuck this week in the matchup against an Atlanta secondary that is unfortunately struggling due to injury.
55:27Don't have A.J. Terrell after he was placed on IR before the Packers game and the Packers receivers had no issues getting yardage against this Falcon secondary.
55:35The Falcons are the quintessential pass funnel defense. It's actually crazy how little yardage they're giving up on the ground versus how
55:42many yards they're giving up through the air. Like, that's how you attack these teams and then we get a matchup against
55:49the Saints who can't run the ball anyway. It's like, Tyler Shuck, buckle up, baby.
55:5450 dropbacks coming on Monday night in the Dome.
55:57So, this game is going to be fun on Monday night and again, NFC South shootouts.
56:02This doesn't happen so often, but we're finally getting some young quarterbacks, some offensive play callers that are ready to let things
56:09loose and I think it's just going to be more of the same from what we've seen from Tyler Shuck where he's
56:16been 250 passing yards, three straight games, two or more total touchdowns, 22 or more fantasy points in each of his first three games this season.
56:24There really should be no hesitation to look at Tyler Shuck as top six, top five quarterback.
56:29I thought it was interesting. I didn't mention it last week when we were talking about Tyler Shuck.
56:35I did rank him above consensus last week and I thought it was interesting because in the projections, he was QB five, Fitch is QB six.
56:43You know what he's in the projections this week?
56:46QB five. Like this is real. In terms of his fantasy production, this is not going to stop.
56:52He has a flurry of weapons to throw through Gris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Devon Vele, and dude, if they get Jordan Tyson back, like oh my God.
57:00There is a chance the Saints can really go on a tear offensively because of all the weapons he has to work
57:07from, the pace that they play with in a dome.
57:10Just yeah, keep playing Tyler Shuck. Yeah, you mentioned that pace.
57:14Kellen Moore likes to keep that pace going consistently.
57:17If there's one thing we know about him, it is coming through.
57:20We should continue to see aggressive pass volume from this team.
57:24Fitz, continue to sell us on Tyler Shuck. The perfect storm for pass volume and I'm probably too low at QB seven
57:31considering that Shuck is averaging 44 passing attempts per game and the Falcons are giving up 43.4 pass attempts per game.
57:37So yes, pass funnel indeed. Shuck averaging over 300 passing yards a game.
57:42He's averaging 30 completions completions a game. Some quarterbacks don't average that many pass attempts a game.
57:47I think Bryce Young last year, half his starts was like 25 or fewer pass attempts and Shuck is completing 30 passes a game.
57:55So yes, start Tyler Shuck this week. Ah, yes.
57:57You mentioned Bryce Young, Erickson, you mentioned the NFC South.
58:00Everyone pulling through, not Baker Mayfield. Who knew he would be the odd man out in this one.
58:06Bryce Young, ECR, QB 11, Fitz QB 11, Erickson QB 11, 11, 11, 11.
58:11I think that's some kind of like lucky number thing or something for people.
58:15So maybe that's a sign that we're getting the Bryce Young bounce back this week for all his struggles that he had
58:22and what was our, what was clearly his most difficult matchup last week.
58:26He did still put up nearly 300 yards even with the Jalen Coker injury.
58:30So yeah, Erickson, talk to us about Bryce Young.
58:33Rich Rebar had this stat before week one about Bryce Young playing in games with high game totals and I thought it was just so fascinating.
58:42So Young has started seven career games with a game total of 47 or higher points.
58:47In those games, he averages nearly 22 fantasy points per game.
58:50Do you know what the total is for Lions and Panthers Sunday Night Football?
58:54It's above 50 points. So one way or another, Bryce Young is going to find a way to get over 22 fantasy
59:01points because that's just what he does when the market is projecting him to play in a shootout and it's because Bryce
59:08Young has so far delivered when they've let him throw the ball more and that's what they're doing in this offense under
59:15Brad Edzik calling the plays no longer Dave Canales is dude, they're letting this guy cook and they should be because they
59:22got to figure out can he be our franchise quarterback or not because him just handing the ball off doesn't help us figure that out.
59:30So I know that is disappointing potentially that they may not have Jalen Coker who's dealing with a quad injury.
59:36Damian Lewis, one of their offensive guards is also a little bit banged up but dude, like almost don't even care because
59:43it's the Detroit Lions defense that until they get their safeties back like their secondary is just so bad all over the
59:50place and the Panthers are playing at home so I think that does also give them a little bit of an advantage
59:57so I think that he is a back-end fantasy QB1 maybe he gets stalked a little bit if he doesn't have Coker
60:04but I'm expecting big things from Ted Aroa this week Darren Waller who we're going to talk about I think those guys
60:11can handle a load against this defense that can't stop a nosebleed.
60:15Yeah, you mentioned you hit on the two key things there for me one, the fact that Detroit is the most lighted
60:22up attack in every single scenario from a fantasy perspective from our pass our passers to our pass catchers consistently and then
60:29the second one there I was very skeptical of Bryce Young and Ted Aroa McMillan heading into the season because of the
60:36way that the Panthers had just held Bryce Young on such a tight leash despite the fact that he has done well
60:43when throwing for volume so color me shocked on this one to see this level of start in terms of volume for
60:50him very encouraging and so happy they're finally actually letting him shine Fitz, talk to us more about Bryce Young My only
60:57concern is that the Panthers offensive line which struggled against the Browns last week might not be able to hold up against
61:04Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions pass rush but as far as the Lions defense in the back end oh boy they have
61:11given up 979 passing yards and nine touchdown passes 204 more passing yards than any other team Commanders the next month and
61:18Bryce Young is thrown for at least 287 yards in each of his first three games so yeah it stinks that he
61:24might not or definitely won't have Jalen Coker but still a good spot for Bryce Erickson mentioned that Vegas total of 51
61:31and a half points this is a really good spot for Bryce Young yeah and he does have some additional pass catchers
61:38there you know hey Darren Waller is healthy as of right now Bryce and Tremaine man I'm thinking about adding him to
61:45our auction team because we need juice and Tremaine's got the juice Dan Morgan the Panthers GM loves tall pass catchers Tremaine
61:52is 6'4 Tedderone McMillan 6'5 Darren Waller is what 6'5 also I mean it Bryce Young is throwing the willow trees this
61:59week yeah the ants the ants dude he's playing point guard man that's what they brought him in to do get him
62:06to these big ballers throw it up to the big bodies 100% on that one and then let's go to someone who
62:13was unfortunately out of out of and he was falling last week but he continues to fall unfortunately Drake May falling to
62:20QB14 in ECR Fitz you're a little bit more in I can't wait to hear this QB12 and then Erickson you're a
62:27bit back QB19 I won't tell you guys how far I pushed him back I'm not gonna lie I'm skeptical but you
62:34know what matchup is interesting so Fitz is it matchup that is maybe pushing you to have him a little bit more
62:41trust in him still that's part of it I mean you know Josh Allen is gonna put up points and force the
62:48Patriots to at least try to keep pace and as mentioned before in the wide receivers show the Bills are not probably
62:55not gonna have Christian Benford their top cornerback so we know Drake May is capable of being a really good passer we
63:02haven't seen it early this season yet I mean things have just gone the run out has been terrible for him he
63:09had a 21 yard touchdown run wiped out by a penalty last week I just he's gonna have to step on the
63:16gas this week with the Bills it's a matchup that's gonna demand it and I don't think a QB 12 ranking is
63:23too crazy for a guy who showed as much as we saw from Drake May last season I'm still a believer I
63:30hear you maybe I should believe a little bit more this week maybe this is the skepticism coming in just a little
63:36bit too hard but let's move on and talk about the tight ends but before we move on to talk about the
63:43tight ends I want to talk to you guys about the start sit assistant take the guesswork out of your start sit
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64:04start sit all right let's go into the tight ends top 12 tight end rankings a little bit more traditional up top
64:11it's not hard guys it's Brock Bowers Trey McBride and George Kittle at the top three then it gets interesting right because
64:18we've got Dalton Kincaid who have been strong but we need a little bounce back here then Travis Kelsey who is holding
64:25on strong at the ripe age of a little bit older I won't give his exact age I'll give him some dignity
64:32there Tyler Warren at tight end six Sam Leporta Jawan Johnson holding on strong in that electric New Orleans offense against Atlanta
64:39again that we just talked about Tucker Kraft falling after the slow start and Kenyon City closing it out at tight in
64:4612 after the fantastic beautiful breakout game and another potentially strong matchup here let's talk about pay pap let's let's talk about
64:53Tucker Kraft let's talk about it tight in nine in ECR Erickson on par with ECR Fitz you're a little bit lower
65:00I totally get that and I'm there about Tucker Kraft nine catches 106 yards no touchdowns on 17 targets and I am
65:07terrified that Tucker Kraft's route share is going to come down because the Packers need him to help block and I'm really
65:14terrified about that happening this offensive line which is in such a bad state that I think the Packers have signed three
65:21guards this week who didn't have jobs Lakin Tomlinson Mekhi Becton and Kevin Zeitler like the Packers offensive line is a disaster
65:28and I really fear that Tucker Kraft is going to be asked to stay in more often instead of running routes and
65:35the route chair comes down and it's just going to be bad for his overall receiving production yeah I have that exact
65:41same fear it's that you know I think hopefully you know we know that he's been on the ramp up coming off
65:48the injury but to your point the fear is him being used more as a blocker because they have to have that
65:55extra protection Erickson played the worst game we've seen from him in a while this past week against the Atlanta Falcons when
66:02multiple passes and when they asked him in the press conference afterwards when they were getting booed he's like that doesn't make
66:09us better so like clearly he was yards high for the year.
66:13And the fact that he has been ramping up the snaps that he's been to the last two games, I think maybe
66:20we get a bounce back effort from Kraft. I agree, but no, no, no love for Skymore underneath the resurgence of Skymore.
66:27I'm kidding. I'm kidding. I know there's some people that are happy to see it.
66:32We'll talk another tight end, Isaiah Likely, which ultimately this just comes down to the Jameis Winston of it all.
66:38ECR tied in 11 fits. You have got him at tight end 10 Erickson tied in 13.
66:43I mean, really right around that same area. We saw him get off to that amazing start, but how much can we trust Jameis or Jameis Williams?
66:52Erickson talked to us about it. Yeah, I think it's just kind of similar.
66:56We talked about with Malik neighbors where what Jameis Winston are you expecting?
67:00And I think that I was convinced during that conversation that we should at least see the best from Jameis Winston compared
67:07to the last two weeks when it was thrown in ice cold.
67:11And then last week was the weather against the Tennessee Titans against Arizona Cardinals at home, assuming that the weather holds up
67:18and isn't a crappy New York Sunday day. Then you could see likely bouncing back and still seeing targets, still seeing solid
67:25usage in terms of how many routes he's running in the offense, 88% route participation with a very concentrated target share in the Giants offense.
67:33It's Malik neighbors. It's Isaiah Likely. And then nobody else is really being featured other than the running backs in the passing game.
67:40So I think that likely is just one of these tight ends when I'm ranking him.
67:45It's okay. Once I feel like there's no other waiver guy or streamer that I feel any semblance of confidence, that's where I'm going to put likely.
67:54It's like, okay, because he plays a full-time role in the offense that in itself is usually enough to get some fantasy
68:01production out of a tight end should known as well.
68:04Arizona is a good matchup for tight ends so far this season, top five fantasy matchups.
68:09So I'm not willing to drop likely to add Darren Waller or do one of those things.
68:14So I don't think that the margin is that drastic, but if I had another tight end that I maybe liked a
68:21little bit more, I don't have a problem benching likely this week, waiting to see it from Jameis Winston versus, you know,
68:28sticking him out there and then getting another bad game when I had a viable option already on my bench.
68:35Would you start a Kenyon Sadiq over Isaiah Likely?
68:37Sadiq popped up in the injury report this week, but if he was playing and good to go, then yeah, because I
68:44think Addenai Mitchell is definitely not going to play another week.
68:48Yeah. Same. Fitz, talk to us more about Isaiah Likely.
68:51Really, it's all about whether we're still holding out any hope for Jameis Winston, who, if you're going to make excuses, came
68:58in cold off the bench in week two and in week three, got wet and rainy nor'easter conditions against the Titans.
69:05So Cardinals have given up the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends.
69:09So it's not a bad matchup for Likely. So far, 15 catches, or yeah, 15 catches, 124 yards, two touchdowns on 23 targets.
69:16Most of that damage in week one, only seven catches for 46 yards the last two weeks.
69:21And again, though, under adverse circumstances, the 15 targets the last two weeks is what kind of jumps out.
69:27So I don't want to forget completely that a couple of years ago in Cleveland, Jameis Winston made David Njoku look like Tony Gonzalez.
69:35Like he totally turned Njoku into a monster for like a six game stretch.
69:39And maybe if we get some of that Jameis Winston, Isaiah Likely could really pop.
69:44Good point. We just need the two years ago, just original, original Jameis Winston to come through, not the version we've seen for the next two weeks.
69:53Let's talk one more tight end. We have talked a little bit about this.
69:57Actually, we've talked a lot about this one here, the Carolina Panthers.
70:01We talked about the pass catcher situation, Bryce Young.
70:04We know we got the injury to Jalen Coker to deal with.
70:07So there is Darren Waller who is creeping up in ECR, becoming a streaming option if you're struggling at tight end, or
70:14hey, maybe you're struggling at flex and you need to go a double tight end situation.
70:19Erickson is feeling the love with Darren Waller at tight end 12 and Fitz remaining a little bit more conservative, but still above ECR at tight end 15.
70:28So Erickson, talk to us about Darren Waller. Waller the baller is back in our fantasy lineups this week.
70:34Dare I say start of the week, Darren Waller last week caught five of eight targets, 51 yards, 16% target share, massive
70:41jump in terms of his target share from week two, where I only saw three targets.
70:46What changed? Jalen Coker got hurt in that game.
70:49If Jalen Coker doesn't play, I think it's not crazy to look at Darren Waller as the number two receiver on this team behind TMAC.
70:57Yes, he does not play all the snaps because he is an older wide or older tight end, but this matchup is like so beyond salivating.
71:05The lines are allowing 28.5 points per game to tight ends.
71:09The next closest team is the commanders at 19 points per game.
71:12The how bad this team is without Kirby Joseph, without Brian Branch at defending tight ends.
71:17It's a joke. They've given up six receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
71:21That's two per game. Six different tight ends have caught a touchdown against the Detroit lions.
71:26Darren Waller. That's all he's good for is catching touchdowns.
71:29And he has three touchdowns on the season. One of them was removed by a penalty because he had offensive PI because that's what Sarah Waller rolls, man.
71:38He's just a big bodied red zone target. And I think that he's going to score on Sunday night football.
71:45So if you look at tight ends and if they score a touchdown over the last three weeks, 70% of tight ends
71:52that score a touchdown finished as a fantasy tight end one.
71:55If you give me those, give me those odds of war scoring.
71:59I think he's going to find pay dirt. So give me a Waller top 12 tight end in week four.
72:05I like it. And we could get more volume as well.
72:09I mean, he had five receptions on eight targets.
72:11We typically don't see that version of him, but with Teddero McMillan being the only healthy guy and Jalen Coker, um, you
72:18know, again, Bryson Tremaine, we hope he comes through, but yeah, we might have to see a higher volume version of Darren
72:25Waller again in this matchup against a Detroit offense that just can't be stopped.
72:30Uh, Fitz, uh, talk to us about, are you, are you in, is that a Tyler, is that a streaming option for you this week in Darren Waller?
72:39Yes. And I'm going to move up Waller in my ranking.
72:42So I'm closer to where Erickson is. Um, so not only Jalen Coker absent, but Xavier Leggett missed week three with a knee injury.
72:50Not sure about his status for week four tight end.
72:53Mitchell Evans left Sunday's game, uh, last week with an arm injury for the Panthers.
72:58So, uh, down another tight end perhaps. And yeah, Waller five catches for 51 yards on eight targets against the Browns last week.
73:05And it was only the second time in the 12 games Darren Waller's played since ending his brief, uh, retirement that he
73:12has had more than five targets in a game.
73:15I think we could see another like eight targets this week against the lions and Erickson mentioned this matchup.
73:21I mean, they're not just letting good tight end score.
73:24Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Kenyon Sadiq have had touchdowns.
73:27So have Noah Fant, Dawson Knox, and Jeremy Rockett against the lions this year.
73:31So yeah, like Waller eight touchdowns over the 12 games since he ended his retirement.
73:36Good bet for a touchdown this week. And I think there's more than just touchdown potential here.
73:41I actually think he could have a decent yardage day too.
73:45I like it or maybe top streaming option at tight end this week, but that wraps things up for the show before
73:52we head out again, make sure that you like this video.
73:55If you're watching on YouTube and that you're subscribed to fantasy pros YouTube channel and the podcast as well.
74:01So do you do not miss out on any of the fantasy football content and tools that we got going on here
74:08as well for Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson. I'm Tara Roberts.
74:11Thank you for tuning in and we will see you next time.
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