10 NFL Players & Teams With the MOST to Prove in 2026 (Ep. 2071)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 30, 2026
Published
Tue, June 30, 2026
5
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
C.J. StroudGarrett WilsonGeorge HolaniJadarian PriceMason Taylor
Player analysis
Player insights
C.J. Stroud
NegativeProjection16:57
Stroud faces significant pressure to prove himself in 2026 after a difficult sophomore season and deteriorating playoff performance where he appeared confused and lost, particularly in the Patriots game. The source notes his offensive line has been historically bad over his career, which may have contributed to his struggles, but emphasizes that Stroud must now elevate his game to make everyone around him better rather than simply taking what defenses give him and relying on defensive bailouts. If the Texans can finally improve their offensive line, there's potential for a different version of Stroud, but there's also risk he's become shell-shocked from the punishment he's endured.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeDepth Chart14:33
Wilson is the Jets' number one receiver in the 2026 depth chart, with A.D. Mitchell as the number two and Omar Cooper as the number three in slot usage.
Insight pageGeorge Holani
NegativeRole12:58
Helani is squarely in the Seahawks' backfield plans for 2026 and is the most experienced running back on the roster; he was a productive lead back at Boise State ahead of Ashen Gentry (a top-10 pick) and is well-liked in passing situations. However, for Helani to deliver serious fantasy value, he would need early-down opportunities, which won't happen given competition from Janarian Price, Emmanuel Wilson, and Zach Charbonnet. He will likely be relegated to passing-down back duty, which caps his fantasy ceiling.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeRole12:58
Price is expected to be a key part of the Seahawks' backfield in 2026 as a rookie. The source notes that the Seahawks will want to establish an effective run game once Price gets up to speed, though early in the season they may rely more on passing given the inexperience at running back and the significant investment in wide receivers like JSN and Rashid Shaheed.
Insight pageMason Taylor
NegativeRole14:33
Taylor is one of the Jets' tight ends who will see significant usage in 2026. When the Jets deploy tight ends like Mason Taylor and Kane Sadiq, slot receiver Omar Cooper will come off the field, limiting his route volume.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. which lets you play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit.
0:06Get yours now at topgolf.com slash fun pass. Park it right here everybody, it's time for the tailgate.
0:12It's me Joe P. Pisapia with me, two of my favorite people in the whole wide world, Andrew Erickson, and filling in
0:18for Derek Brown who I think is on a boat somewhere, fishing or whatever people do with beards like that from the south.
0:25It's Pat Fitzmaurice everybody, we are graced with an OG performance by my patty cakes here on the tailgate today.
0:31Fitzy, it's so good to see you. It's nice to have somebody else here on the show to make me feel a
0:37little bit more like a contemporary is available to me because I make statements sometimes and Andrew has no idea what I'm talking about, I'll be honest.
0:45Someone has to class up the room without a deep row over here a little bit.
0:50No, just kidding. But yeah, I'm excited. I'm from Wisconsin.
0:53I love a good tailgate. I brought the bratwurst, the cheese curds, plenty of beer.
0:57We're good to go. Erickson. See no, no, no, no vegetables.
1:00No, right. That was our big conversation last week was like the overrated tailgate foods because we were talking about overrated players
1:07and we got into food, of course, because, you know, it's us.
1:10And Erickson's like no vegetables, which I thought was odd because you look at Andrew, you we spent a lot of time
1:16in person with each other over the years. He's a very healthy guy, workout guy, all this stuff.
1:22But the tailgate, he's like zero vegetables. That surprising to you, Fitzy?
1:25Maybe a little bit, but come on. Who wants carrot sticks and ranch dressing at a tailgate party?
1:30I don't want to waste my precious stomach space on rabbit food.
1:34Exactly. There's a time for that and it's not at a tailgate party.
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2:19Today, we're going to talk about 2026 and the teams and players that have something to prove.
2:24So we're going to get into that conversation. We're also going to fix something in the NFL that is long overdue that needs fixing.
2:31But first, of course, we start with the headlines, a little camp buzz.
2:35And it's tough to start off on a down note, but it's such a massive football story that I did want to talk about it yesterday.
2:43Good morning, America appearance for Chris Johnson, a.k.a. CJ 2K, who for a window there in the NFL was probably the most productive running back in that era.
2:51He was an incredible player to watch. In case you haven't heard, a diagnosis of ALS and heartbreaking because it seems to
2:57be not just a disease that's going quickly through him, but very quickly.
3:01I mean, he was diagnosed less than a year ago and he's already at a stage where he's unable to speak.
3:07It was a very moving interview. It hit a lot of us hard.
3:11He's only 39 years old, too. Very young. Playing video games and all that stuff.
3:15And it's just it's gut wrenching. It's very hard to watch such a magnificent.
3:19It's hard to watch anybody. But I think as football fans, too, to watch these these warriors who seem invincible to us
3:26all of a sudden look so human so quickly.
3:28It's tough. It's very difficult. I just wanted to bring it up.
3:32And of course, we wish his family and CJ obviously all the best.
3:36But I want to share some Chris Johnson stories or moments or thoughts here on the program today before we got into
3:42more of the football side of things. And we'll have some fun for sure in the show.
3:47But, Andrew, any thoughts on the recent news, the diagnosis of Chris Johnson and maybe some memories of him as a player,
3:53too, that really stick out to you in a brilliant career?
3:57Yeah, very sad situation for sure for Chris Johnson, CJ2K.
4:00I definitely had him on a lot of my fantasy teams when I was in my youth.
4:04I don't know if I had him the year he did rush for 2000 yards, but I think I had him the
4:11year after, which still very, very productive that following season from Tennessee Titans.
4:15So devastating to hear this types of news for a player.
4:18To your point, Joe, I thought that you eloquently put this where we view these warriors as they're invincible, right?
4:24Especially when you're younger, growing up, watching these guys play.
4:27This guy is so fast. Nobody can catch Chris Johnson and to see him battling this, wishing him only the best.
4:33I know no one's really spoken too much about it.
4:36You hear some stuff on the Internet where people are saying, hey, by the way, let's not gloss over the fact that
4:42concussions, it seems, from a lot of the studies of ALS certainly seem to be connectivity there.
4:4738 players since 2021 have been confirmed ALS of the 19,000 NFL players that are played during that period of time.
4:53That was a study that Boston University did, just going through some stuff for the show.
4:58Obviously, Chris Johnson, Tim Shaw, Steve Gleason, obviously very well documented too.
5:01Just an incredible story, what he's done with his life before being a football player, during being a football player, and then post being a football player.
5:09Tim Green, OJ Briggins. You also had Dwight Clark, another two, another great wide receiver from the 49ers, the catch, quote unquote, from Montana.
5:16I think you would have to be insane not to think that there is definitely some sort of connective tissue here between
5:23brain injuries, head injuries, and possible links to ALS.
5:25And, Pat, I feel like it's something that we might be advancing towards a stage where you're going to see a lot
5:32more players wearing the big padded helmets, and you're going to see even more rules changes and things like that.
5:38And I'm all for that. I don't want to see, you know, young men cut down on the prime of their life
5:44with debilitating diseases at 39 years old. It's not worth it for my enjoyment.
5:48So I'm okay with any of those things that happen.
5:51I just want to get your take on this too, Pat.
5:54I'm for anything that advances safety, whether it's if people don't think the big helmets are aesthetically pleasing, who cares?
6:00Whatever it is. Like, these guys, I will never begrudge NFL players their money because of what they subject themselves to.
6:06And we know that they are probably, because football is such a violent game, shortening their lifespans by playing this game and
6:13sacrificing their health and putting themselves at great risk.
6:15And every year we see these horrible injuries. I mean, ALS, obviously, that's completely on a different scale because that's going to take Chris Johnson's life.
6:23And it's this indiscriminate disease. But yeah, maybe there is a connection between higher incidents of ALS with football players.
6:29So yeah, I mean, it's just a terrible situation.
6:31Yeah. I mean, I'm always going to remember Chris Johnson.
6:34That guy was an absolute blur when he played.
6:37And I remember thinking, as the fantasy analyst to me, thinking like, OK, he's fast.
6:41But fast doesn't necessarily mean a good runner. Think of like dry archer or whatever.
6:46With the Steelers, no, he was a good football player.
6:48Like, he had vision. He had tackle-breaking ability. He could cut sharply.
6:52Phenomenal player. And this is just terrible news. Yeah, all-time titan for sure.
6:56Six straight years to open his career with 1,000 yards rushing.
6:59And look, he was a warrior on the field.
7:02He's going to be a warrior off the field.
7:04He's got little kids. It's always tough, you know, in any situation.
7:08But especially those as dads, you know, you kind of feel that just in a different way.
7:13So again, very tough news. I know it's kind of shaking the football world.
7:17I wanted to bring it up here. And again, of course, wish Chris Johnson, his family, his friends, and everyone around him
7:23all the best as he continues to fight this battle with ALS.
7:27And I hope they continue to do their research.
7:29And I hope they continue to make the game as safe as they possibly can.
7:34We know it's a violent game. We know it's a different game than the one I grew up with and Fitzy grew up with.
7:41And I think that's a good idea considering the CTE, the suicides, the issues that we've seen so many.
7:46You know, when you read the stories of the Dave Duersons and the Mike Websters and all these, you know, your heart breaks.
7:53And we shouldn't have these guys who give us all this incredible entertainment have their lives end up in ruin and in
7:59pieces like that physically, mentally, all of that. So again, we'll continue to update that story here on tailgate as I'm sure everyone will in the NFL.
8:07Let's turn our attention to the camp because we are going to talk about some football going on the field.
8:13And of course, we like to do a little buy or sell with the camp buzz.
8:18And Andrew, I'm excited to bring Fitzy in this for a little bit of a do you buy this?
8:23Do you sell this news? Because, you know, camp is all about the buzz this time of year.
8:29The Browns getting some buzz. Daniel Oyafusi, who is, again, my favorite new one to say.
8:33Daniel Oyafusi, ESPN. And I landed that plane last week and I landed it again this week.
8:38Casey Concepcion is being used in a bevy of ways during the team's offensive programs.
8:43Andrew Erickson, are you buying or selling Casey Concepcion being a gadget guy potentially for the Cleveland Browns?
8:48I think it's more of a gadget plus type of guy.
8:51It doesn't surprise me that they're trying to be creative with getting him the ball because that's what he did so well
8:57at college football is be diverse in space. Get this guy the ball.
9:01You are to the catch monster. Really good on special teams as well.
9:05So definitely buying this that, hey, Todd Munkin probably views Casey Concepcion as Zay Flowers.
9:09And Zay Flowers was used in pretty unique ways under Munkin in Baltimore.
9:13So I'm buying this. Concepcion, gadget player or more than a gadget player?
9:17What are you buying here, Fitzy? I think I'm selling this in terms of the fantasy impact.
9:22Hopefully one of the ways they're one of the bevy of ways they're using him is by throwing him the ball.
9:28But I think it's this is almost just code for saying he's sort of a short area receiver and he is going to run the occasional jet sweep.
9:36And when you're a short area receiver, sometimes you're going to line up in the backfield, sometimes in the slot.
9:42Sometimes they're going to move you out wide. You have a little more positional versatility.
9:46But as far as this making me think that he's in for 150 targets and 100 receptions, no, I'm not buying that idea.
9:53Next from ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Seahawks wide receiver Rashid Shahid is going to be, quote, a big time player in 2026 after expanding the route tree.
10:01So do you buy or sell more branches for Rashid Shahid in the Seahawks offense this year, Pat?
10:06I just sell this one to not to be the grumpy old man here.
10:10I'm selling it, too, baby. I think this is complete buzzy nonsense.
10:14Not that I'm expecting another whatever it was, 34.5% target share for Jackson Smith and Jigba this year.
10:19But, boy, he is going to command a lot of oxygen in the Seattle passing game.
10:23And I don't know what's left over for Rashid Shahid.
10:26Yeah, he could be a complimentary guy. But I think his ceiling is kind of what he had been in New Orleans,
10:33the splash play guy who's maybe good for 800 or 900 yards in a good year.
10:37You know, it's funny. That seems to be the narrative going around.
10:41Well, I can't see JSN getting a 35% target share again.
10:44And I keep thinking to myself, why not? Because I don't know what's different except now the running game is worse.
10:50That's all I know. We're going to talk about this on the next Dale Gate 2.
10:55It's part of our big topics of the offseason.
10:58Because this feels, Andrew, like the same nonsense that I was getting sold with James Cook year over year.
11:03And everybody was like, well, James Cook can't possibly be productive again like that.
11:07He was productive. OK, sometimes the answer is nothing's changed.
11:10So why are you changing your thought process about it?
11:13But Rashid Shahid, should you change your thought process about him based on the camp buzz, Andrew?
11:18So I am buying this as well. So I'm out here spending all these types of money on camp buzz with Browns and Seahawks players.
11:25So absolutely love that. I think Shahid, if you look at the quotes, big time player.
11:30It's not always going to get 10 targets a game.
11:33It's he's going to deliver splash phase down the field, be this vertical threat that was lacking, I think, a little bit.
11:39JSN was in that role last year, basically doing everything.
11:42I think it just kind of takes some pressure off of JSN, to be totally honest.
11:47They paid him, but they also paid Rashid Shahid.
11:50They didn't have to re-sign him. So I look at the Seahawks and I look at the depth chart.
11:55We've already talked about the running backs, which we're going to get into a little bit here as well.
12:01But why can't they throw more in 2026? Look how much JSN is getting paid.
12:05Look how much Rashid Shahid is getting paid. If you look at, I don't remember the exact numbers, but the Seahawks are
12:11paying a lot of money to wide receivers. So what does that tell you?
12:16OK, maybe they drop back to throw a little bit more with Sam Darno when you have inexperience at the running back position.
12:22I know this is one of the run heaviest offenses last year.
12:26I don't think it's just going to be rinse and repeat.
12:29Again, they still want to establish an effective run game once Janarian Price gets up to speed as a rookie.
12:35But I think out of the gates, I think that they're ready to put more on Sam Darnold's shoulders.
12:40So I will sell JSN having a 35% target share.
12:43But is it going to actually hurt his overall volume?
12:46I don't think so, because I think the offense will throw more.
12:50All right, let's stick with the Seahawks. Brady Henderson from ESPN reporting that the Seahawks running back George Helani is, quote, squarely in Seattle's backfield plans for 2026.
12:58Andrew, are you buying or selling that? I think that he's in the plan, so I'm going to be buying.
13:04I am running out of money. I don't know.
13:06I'm going to be broke. I'm going to be broke.
13:09Imagine what camp is every day. What are you going to do?
13:13I spent a fourth round rookie dynasty pick on George Helani, who was in the player pool because he was an undrafted player.
13:19So they like him a lot. He's the most experienced guy that they have.
13:24I mean, and I even dove back into his Boise State stuff.
13:27He was ahead of a backfield with Ashen Gentry, who came out as a top 10, I think, what, fifth, sixth overall pick.
13:34And Helani was the lead guy there. Now, he was older at Boise State, but still very productive.
13:39They like him in passing situations. So I think right now, Helani, he's interesting, to say the least.
13:44Every year, Fitzy, the fantasy football gods like to kick us in the nuts with things like this.
13:49Could this be the nut kicker this year with George Helani when we're all looking at price and some of us are looking at Emmanuel Wilson?
13:57But George Helani is the one that kind of spoils everything.
14:00I'm going to sell this. I'm buying it in that he will have a role.
14:05He's going to make the roster. He will probably be the passing down back.
14:09But for Helani to deliver any serious fantasy value, he would have to play on some early downs, too.
14:14That's not going to happen. There are just too many other options on early downs.
14:19Jadarian Price, Emmanuel Wilson, Zach Charbonnet, whenever he comes back.
14:22So he's going to be strictly passing downs. I think that kind of caps what he can do for you from a fantasy perspective.
14:29All right. Last one here. Two Jets notes. And they're kind of combined here.
14:33So Rich Cimini writes that Jets wide receiver Omar Cooper is the most impressive rookie this spring, all but solidifying his number three spot in the receiver packages.
14:41And then A.D. Mitchell solidified himself as the number two wide receiver in spring workouts.
14:45Are you buying these two answers of the wide receiver two and three for the New York Jets, Fitzy?
14:51Yeah, I'll buy this one. I'm a big Omar Cooper fan.
14:54I'm not surprised that he has endeared himself to the coaches already with the Jets.
14:58And, yeah, I mean, it stands to reason that he would be behind Adenai Mitchell on the depth chart right now.
15:04Adenai Mitchell, really intriguing tools. I mean, Cooper's athletic.
15:07Adenai Mitchell is even, you know, better size speed combination than Omar Cooper.
15:11So he's intriguing to young pieces to build on for when the Jets eventually get some sort of real quarterback and probably next year's draft.
15:18Yes. And they've got such a good track record of choosing the right individual for that job.
15:23Andrew Erickson, Jets wide receivers, A.D. Mitchell, Omar Cooper.
15:26Are you buying their usefulness? You're Mr. Geno Smith on this program.
15:29It's like I'd imagine you're like this is it.
15:32You're all out of cash. You're buying this last one, too.
15:35Well, I'm not going to buy the most impressive rookie in the spring because Kane Sadiq has missed a lot of the offseason training camp with an injury.
15:43So he's been rehabbing. So when I go to OK, he's the most impressive rookie.
15:48Well, the guy that drafted ahead of Omar Cooper is not there.
15:51So that's something I want to point out. So I guess I would sell that part of this headline.
15:57But I agree. Mitchell would be the number two receiver.
16:00Garrett Wilson, number one. I think this does not concern me, but at least paint a picture of this probably means Omar Cooper is.
16:07Destined for slot usage. So operating as that number three receiver out of the slot.
16:11But when they go to tight ends with Mason Taylor and Kane Sadiq, there's no more Cooper come off the field.
16:17So that's something to kind of be wary of when you're looking at him as a fantasy asset.
16:22He's probably going to be running fewer routes than a lot of the other Jets receivers.
16:27All right, gentlemen, let's talk about teams and players with something to prove.
16:31So we're going to talk about both of those aspects.
16:34But first, I want to talk about some of the players with a lot to prove.
16:38And every year in the NFL, there's circumstances, there's situations that bear out for talents in the NFL.
16:44Where whether it's injury recovery, whether it's new scenarios, down seasons, all of a sudden the season is upon us.
16:49And certain players have more to play for than others.
16:52And I want to start here with a quarterback who has the ability, I do believe, to take his team to a Super Bowl.
16:59Mostly because the defense is just so damn good.
17:02And it's C.J. Stroud. I think C.J. Stroud might have the most to prove of anybody because C.J.
17:07Stroud went from being a guy that some folks were unsure about in the process to having a great rookie season, having
17:14a difficult sophomore season where he struggled a little bit.
17:17And then a bunch of question marks last year when he basically just deteriorated in front of our eyes in the playoffs.
17:23Now, granted, he played some good teams. There were some good defenses he played against.
17:27The offensive line throughout his career has not been good.
17:30The hope is they finally got at least a serviceable unit in front of him this year.
17:35But you also want to see a little bit more from C.J.
17:39Stroud, too. He definitely was hearing ghosts there in the playoffs.
17:42You watch that Patriot game especially, too. You watch that back.
17:45He looked all kinds of confused. And I understand.
17:48Like, sometimes you have bad games, you have bad days.
17:51But my problem with C.J. Stroud is also kind of what happened afterwards, which he just kind of looked lost.
17:57He didn't seem like he was ready to go again.
18:00And I'm hoping he took this offseason to really prepare in a different way.
18:04Because I think the biggest lesson C.J. Stroud has learned this offseason, or has to learn, is that now you've got to
18:10take your game to a higher level. Now you've got to be the guy who makes everybody great around you instead of
18:16just taking what the defenses give you, making few mistakes, and hoping that the defense kind of bails you out on a weekly basis.
18:23We can't have that. Not if we're going to get to a Super Bowl.
18:28Not if we're going to run to AFC Championship games.
18:30So, Pat, real quick, I want to get your take on C.J.
18:34Stroud here as a quarterback that has a lot to prove in 2026.
18:38Do you agree? I do. I still think he's a good quarterback.
18:41I think it's mostly attributable to how bad his offensive line has been the last two years.
18:46I still can't get over that his line was so bad in 2024.
18:50And the first move they made on the offensive line when they got into the offseason was to trade away Laramie Tunsil,
18:56the best member of that offensive line. And I know he had gotten a zillion penalties in 2024.
19:02But it made the line objectively worse going into 2025.
19:05They did kind of hold it together a little bit last year.
19:08But I know they were just talking about this on the Athletic Football Show the other day, how bad they were this
19:14past season, even when they went to max protect.
19:17And how many hits C.J. Stroud was taking when they kept like seven guys in the block for him.
19:23So, like, this has been a real problem. It might have been part of the impetus to get a couple of blocking
19:29tight ends in the draft this year. If they can fix the offensive line, we might see different C.J.
19:35Stroud. But hopefully it's not one of those situations where he's David Card, where he is so shell-shocked from the punishment he's
19:41been taking the last two years that it's just sort of made him a worse quarterback.
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21:22And Fitzy, the Davis Mills moments last year too, where they were scoring points, that didn't help the situation either.
21:28Because all of a sudden, I think a lot of the fan base went, wait a minute, so Davis Mills can come
21:35in here and score points, but then we put CJ Stroud back in and that's a struggle boss.
21:40The same offensive line, same weapons for the most part.
21:43So I'm hoping that the redefined running game with David Montgomery, the redefined offensive line goes a long way.
21:48But at the end of the day, it's CJ Stroud who has to prove that he's mentally tough enough to overcome some
21:55of the adversities that he's been facing the last couple years.
21:58He's got to bring back that chip on the shoulder from his rookie season.
22:02That's what he's got to do. I want to see that guy.
22:05And the other guy for me that has to prove something is Kyler Murray.
22:10Former number one overall pick. Arizona is not a great organization.
22:13They never have been. Kyler Murray certainly last year was in a situation where he was hurt and his shoulder was bad,
22:19quote unquote, and it was just kind of like nobody wanted him to play.
22:23He didn't want to play. But now you were in a spot where you're at a fork in the road in your career.
22:30You're going to a team that has a pretty good grouping of weapons there.
22:34You've got TJ Hawkins at a tight end. You got two capable running backs.
22:38You got an all worldwide receiver in Justin Jefferson.
22:41Jordan Addison ain't bad either. So there's no excuses when you have a Kevin O'Connell offensive mind.
22:46My hope is that Kyler Murray recognizes that this is the moment in his career now where he has to step up
22:52or he is always going to now be a guy who's just fighting for a spot the rest of his career.
22:58Andrew, I don't want to be hyperbolic here, but it does feel like Kyler Murray has so much to prove here about
23:05whether or not he is still a starter in this league because I think if he fails here, he will be relegated to that.
23:12Well, you bring in a Kyler Murray as a veteran backup if you're unsure about a kid or maybe you want to
23:18transition to a younger quarterback and his days of being viewed as a franchise quote unquote quarterback will be a distant memory.
23:25What are your thoughts on Kyler Murray and what he has to prove this season?
23:29Well, he's got to prove that he can still be the guy that was picked number one overall because now that he
23:35has moved teams from Arizona where he was always viewed as, hey, we drafted this guy number one overall.
23:41Oh, that's no longer the case, right? He's making what the, he's getting the veteran minimum from the Minnesota Vikings.
23:47Now he's still getting the money from the Arizona Cardinals.
23:50So he's getting paid, but he's right now in a quarterback competition with J.J.
23:54McCarthy. Whether it's right or wrong, whether it's true or false, he's still splitting reps with a young quarterback because he has
24:00not technically earned the starting job for the Minnesota Vikings.
24:03He's still learning this new offense. So if he can't adapt, can't adjust and thrive in an offense that we have seen
24:09veteran quarterback after veteran quarterback after veteran quarterback thrive in this O'Connell offense?
24:13Well, then yeah, who's going to want Kyler Murray next year?
24:16It's again, it was a, it was a, it was a really good move by the Minnesota Vikings because it just makes so much sense.
24:24And from his perspective too, it's like, hey, this is where veteran quarterbacks rebound.
24:28Just look at Sam Darnold, right? He went to the Minnesota Vikings, got out of New York.
24:33And again, I don't want to put it all on Kyler because the Arizona hasn't necessarily been the most functional franchise.
24:39Kyler Murray has dealt with injuries, but that's part of his limitations as a quarterback.
24:43He's undersized. He gets banged up and he tails off in the second half of seasons as teams start to figure him out.
24:50The cliff cliff. Everyone knows about it. The cliff Kingsbury cliff for all these teams, especially with Kyler Murray.
24:56So with offenses, is no longer just catered to what he's limited.
24:59He needs to expand his game. He's got all the weapons.
25:02He's got a coach that I think believes in him and his upside, but it's a matter of like, put up or shut up, man.
25:10Like, let's go. And you're right because Kyler Murray has more physical athletic attributes than Darnold and Cousins.
25:15But I mean, you know, if they can be successful in this offense to that degree that they were and be, you
25:21know, playoff contenders every year, Kyler Murray needs to, he needs to in year one, make the playoffs.
25:26Like, I'm sorry, everybody. I know there's a lot of pressure.
25:30I know the Vikings were disappointing last year. He needs to make the playoffs.
25:34The Vikings need to make the playoffs. Now, Andrew, I know you wanted to put Kyler Murray in your conversation, but of course I make the show sheet.
25:42So I get to do that stuff first, but you did put CJ Stroud in yours too.
25:47I'd like to get your take on CJ Stroud.
25:50Talk to me about where you see that going this year.
25:53Cause you also had him down as one of your players that had a lot to prove in 2026.
25:58I think that we're going to see a bounce back for CJ Stroud.
26:02I think to your point that you made great chip on his shoulder after his rookie year, what is he doing?
26:08Shows with Micah Parsons talking about, I'm, you know, I'm the vet, like I'm the man.
26:13And now it's kind of been like, all right, no, you've come back down to earth.
26:18The Texans offensive line has been terrible. Basically every single year of his career, it's been terrible.
26:23And he's never had a run game every single year of his career.
26:26I remember looking and be like during his rookie year, that sensational performance, like he must've had a run game, right?
26:32No, it was still horrible. Still bottom three and success rate.
26:36Never had a run game. Despite all that though, he's the fifth quarterback all time to reach the divisional round of the playoffs in his first three seasons.
26:44You know, the other four guys are. Can you guys take any guess at any of the other four guys that I've done?
26:51To reach in his first, how many seasons? Four seasons?
26:53The divisional round? First three seasons to reach the divisional round of the playoffs.
26:58There are four other quarterbacks. He is the fifth.
27:00Wow. It's an interesting list. Can you give me decades?
27:03Like what decades they were from? Are we talking like eighties, nineties guys or more recent kind of thing?
27:09Or because it's divisional round. So there's a couple older guys, eighties, nineties, and then there's some older players that are still,
27:15or at least they were still kicking around in league last year.
27:19Fitzy, would you say Montana in that group? Montana sounds like one, maybe Marino.
27:23See, I don't think Marino was one. Dan Marino was one.
27:26His first three years. Was Montana one or no?
27:28Hmm. I'm trying to think of somebody else who was on a team that came in as a rookie and was good right away.
27:35Was Roethlisberger one of them? Jim Kelly? Uh, no, but yeah, see Jim Kelly came late too from USFL.
27:41He did. So I think there was that little bit of an overlap where the bills were still kind of stinky before they got good.
27:48You know, one of them was a, uh, I think it was a Browns quarterback.
27:53He did it with the Browns or he was a Browns quarterback.
27:56Oh, I don't know. I knew he was, I think he was on the Browns at some point.
28:01Okay. So those are the older guys and then you have two guys who were veterans last year got relegated to backup duties, but older players.
28:09One of them just recently retired, actually. No, it's not a terrible guess though.
28:13I mean, they didn't make the playoffs like seven years in a row, but not the divisional round.
28:18Remember, they was lost every year. Yeah. And it wouldn't have been a joke about Marvin Lewis is Joe Flacco.
28:24Wow. Nice. Also on that list. Joe Flacco and one other old fart.
28:28Hmm. One guy, he just retired, just retired. Got a new gig with CBS.
28:32I think. Oh, right. He came in hot too.
28:35Russell Wilson. When you land in a legion of boom, life is pretty easy for you.
28:39Yes. We did pretty good on that list. I gotta say.
28:43No, yes. I get it. It's, it's not a list.
28:45Cause you're thinking like anything that has to do with playoffs and success early on, you're like, Oh, it's got Brady and
28:52Manning and all like all of those types of players, but that's really not the case.
28:57Again, the only hall of famer is Dan Marino, I believe.
29:00So let's see. No, Joe Flacco's on the hall of fame.
29:03Russ is not. And Bernie Kosar, is he? Bernie Kosar is definitely not in the hall of fame, but Bernie Kosar had
29:09a great start to his career, but then everything kind of went sideways.
29:13Bernie had some Bernie issues, but is, is Joe Flacco a hall of famer?
29:17I mean, Superbowl. I don't think so. He had gotten probably another Superbowl.
29:21He probably viewed exactly like Eli Manning is. He had the second one, but he did twice.
29:26Yeah. All right. Right. Right. So, so again, I brought that up again, putting CJ Stroud in a situation where this guy's
29:32like one playoff games like to start his career.
29:35So it's, it feels weird to put him in a category because he's had a lot of success early on in his
29:41career, but like, he still has something to prove.
29:44The measuring stick is too high already. That's why.
29:47Yeah. I think that he's had really, I think when he's had these high expectations, he's failed to deliver.
29:52But to your point, when he was a rookie, there was no, there was no expectations.
29:57So, so I think now it's like, I think that the general sentiment around CJ Stroud is definitely down.
30:02You just look across any type of rankings, whether it's in fantasy, whether it's just real life quarterback rankings, like people are definitely down on Stroud.
30:10And I think it's just, I think it's very much clouded by those last two games that, again, they were absolutely horrible,
30:16just atrocious, but it shouldn't wipe away the other 18 games he played last year where he was actually really good in a lot of those games.
30:24Again, some tough matchups here and there, but when he actually had time in the pocket, like I went back and watched
30:31some of his games, especially earlier in the year before his concussion, because he was also running.
30:36He was using his legs way more than people remember before his concussion last year.
30:40He was picking up first downs. This guy can still rip it over the middle of the field.
30:45And I really think again, last year, league high success rate when targeting and breaking routes, second highest completion rate behind only Jared Goff in that category.
30:53It's like, no one's going to look at Jared Goff and say, yeah, he was bad last year.
30:59It's like, no, like he was really, really, again, really efficient, really good quarterback last year for the Detroit Lions.
31:04So I think with CJ Stroud, it's a matter of the offensive line has got to improve.
31:09He's got to get a run game going. And I think that having some more of these receivers taking a step forward,
31:16Jaden Higgins in year two, Jalen Nolan, getting guys like Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk off the field, like those guys were not helping him whatsoever.
31:23So I think just the supporting cast around him, maybe putting a little bit less on his plate, I think he can
31:30get back to his uber efficient self. And yeah, I think that, especially to another year in Nick Haley's office, I think
31:36the only way he doesn't get back to rookie year is if this Nick Haley offense really just doesn't really inspire a lot of confidence or creativity.
31:44But in terms of everything else around him, I think the Texans have done a good job.
31:49And again, I think he's still a baller, man.
31:52I think that he can still be an assassin in Red Park defenses.
31:55I agree. I think he's up to the task of it.
31:59Fitzy's got two names, but I want to finish off the last one for Andrew Erickson real quick.
32:04Alec Pierce was the other one that you said a lot to prove.
32:08I would agree, Andrew, because it does feel like a little bit of leap of faith and it felt like even more
32:14of a jump after we found out about the offseason surgery where I was like, oh, well, that's interesting information for us
32:20now to be digesting that no one kind of told us about during the whole free agency process.
32:26So tell me why Alec Pierce has a lot to prove in your eyes this year.
32:30Well, he's making $28.5 million a year. That makes him the 11th highest wide receiver value in terms of contracts tied with
32:37Jalen Waddle on a per year basis and it's actually more than Jameson Williams.
32:41So kind of looking at some more contracts, I guess for me, so fringe top 10 wide receiver money, I guess for
32:47me, it's are we putting expectations on Alec Pierce and the Colts that, okay, now he has to step up and be this different receiver than he's been.
32:56I think Ben Gretsch talked about this on the Establish the Edge podcast where he's not so sure and I kind of
33:02agree with him that is Alec Pierce actually going to have like this super dynamic and different role in this offense when
33:08are the Colts just paying him to be this super efficient vertical threat that he has been for them the last two seasons, right?
33:15And they're rewarding him like, man, you are really good in the role we have you in and we have other pieces
33:22like Josh Downs, like Tyler Warren to vacuum up and soak up those underneath targets vacated by Michael Pittman Jr.
33:28So that's kind of how I'm looking at it because I think when Pierce, if he had been signed by another team,
33:34I feel like he would be one of the easiest guys to fade entirely because it's a classic case of, oh, new
33:40player as a number two receiver signed as a number one wide receiver in another place and then they just cannot meet those expectations.
33:47because he's with the Colts, we're like a little bit more confident.
33:51Okay, well, he was really good with the Colts.
33:54He has the same quarterback. Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles injury.
33:57Is he going to be able to push the ball downfield?
34:01So I don't think that Pierce is going to have a exact carbon copy role as he had last year, but layering
34:07that ankle injury, I think that it might be that, no, he still kind of uses his explosive threat and maybe it's
34:13more of a Jameson Williams type role, which is not too, like they have similar contracts.
34:18And again, you always make more money than the guy because you're paid last because that's how these contracts work.
34:24It's like who was the last guy getting paid?
34:27You're going to make more money. But I think that we could probably see him more in a Jameson Williams war where
34:33he still kind of continues to be boom or bust, even though I do think he is a good real life receiver.
34:39I'm not so sure that the money is going to necessarily suggest, okay, no, he has to be a all encompassing number
34:46one wide receiver threat when they have other guys in that offense that command targets at a high level.
34:51So I'm interested to see what you guys made is that if it was somewhere else that he signed and got overpaid,
34:58we'd all be like, oh man, this is kind of a fade, but it is the same offense.
35:03It is the same structure. It is the returning quarterback, although the injury I'm still buying Tyler Warren shares way more from a fancy perspective.
35:10If we want to like have it from that perspective, but from an NFL perspective too, like he has to perform now in this role because Pittman's gone.
35:18Jones is coming back from an injury like Alec Pierce has to be the man because they're paying him to be the
35:25man and they don't really have anybody else to be the man in the wide receiver group at least.
35:30They do need him to be more than just a nine route guy to justify the amount of money they're giving him.
35:37Maybe he doesn't need to run the full route tree, but I think they at least need him to be a Jordy
35:43Nelson who for the Packers was sort of the go-to guy.
35:46I mean, he was still a kind of a deep ball specialist, but he did some other things too.
35:52You could use him on sideline back shoulder throws when you needed eight yards for a first down.
35:57You could use him on slants and crossers. I expect a more complete route tree, if not a totally full one.
36:03But yeah, there is a lot riding on him.
36:06I kind of did a double take when I saw this name on the show sheet, but Erickson makes a really good
36:12point here about Pierce having a lot to prove this year.
36:16Two of the names that you put, I was going to put, but I did not, but they were in the contenders,
36:22so I'm very glad that you put them in here.
36:25First one is Jalen Hurts, because I also felt he had a lot to prove.
36:29My trouble was, I was like, well, he's also won a Super Bowl, so am I being a jerk because I say
36:36Jalen Hurts has a lot to prove? And you know what?
36:39I'm so glad that I didn't do it because everybody likes you way more.
36:43You're a much nicer person than I am. So the fact that you're saying it, I think brings a little bit of
36:49a different attention to it because my initial instinct, the first name I wanted to put was Jalen Hurts, more because he
36:56was in another new offense, playing without A.J. Brown, a lot more pressure, like now things are changing for him.
37:02So please take this jerk role off my shoulders and tell me why Jalen Hurts, Super Bowl champion, former Super Bowl champion, has something to prove this year.
37:10Yeah, I'm sure Eagles fans will go easy on me because they think I'm a nice guy in the comments.
37:16But like, that's the thing, you criticize anything about the Eagles and Eagles fans get kind of mad because I'm wearing my Jason Kelsey shirt today, baby.
37:24So let's go. Well, that's what this stems from.
37:26Like, Eagles fans do see themselves as sort of blue bloods.
37:29Their team is a blue blood, and I agree, which is why I think Hurts is kind of on the hot seat.
37:36Like, 2025, not a great year for the Eagles.
37:39They won a weak NFC with an 11-6 record.
37:41They lost to the 49ers in the wildcard round, and their passing offense just went belly up in that playoff game.
37:47And really, the passing game dysfunctional for a lot of the season.
37:51Yeah, a lot of the blame goes at the feet of now-departed OC Kevin Petillo, but it wasn't a great season for Hurts either.
37:58I mean, the Eagles offense 17th in DVOA, Hurts was 16th among starting quarterbacks and expected points added per play, 19th in QBR among starting quarterbacks.
38:05His rushing production was down. He and A.J. Brown continued to have frayed on-field chemistry.
38:10Well, A.J. Brown is gone. The Eagles traded him to the Patriots.
38:13They drafted Mekhi Lemon and Eli Stowers to help fill the void.
38:17Petillo is gone. Now it's going to be first-time play caller Sean Mannion.
38:21He says he's going to have Hurts under center a lot more, so that's a change.
38:25I mean, Hurts only played under center about 30% of the time last year.
38:29It's a lot of change, and there have been some encouraging reports that Hurts and Mannion are clicking right away.
38:35That's good. But, look, another early playoff exit would not go over well in Philadelphia.
38:39No? No. And, I mean, Hurts averaged 4.8 yards per pass attempt in that loss to the 49ers.
38:45The 49ers' pass defense didn't always look great last year because they couldn't get after the quarterback with the pass rush.
38:51So, Hurts only has $22 million in guaranteed money for the 2027 season, although his cap number would be kind of an issue.
38:58But, like, if he is a good season in 2026, we can just blame Kevin Petillo and move on.
39:03But if it's another early exit and another disappointing season for the Eagles, it's going to be interesting to see what Howie Roseman does.
39:10Well, they also drafted one of my favorite project quarterbacks, Cole Payton.
39:14Yeah. Who's a big kid, throws hard, runs fast, got a little Josh Allen in his profile there a little bit.
39:20I'm wearing my chain, my Eagles chain here today too on the show to support all you Eagles fans who are in
39:26your feelings right now after a very disappointing last year.
39:29So, look, I got the Kelsey shirt. Not even Eagles fan.
39:32I just, these are things I have around me, okay, from a lifetime of the NFL.
39:37Do you want to jump on the jerk bandwagon here?
39:40Andrew Erickson about Jalen Hurts kind of have something to prove because I agree with Fitzy.
39:45I think he does have something to prove in this new age where I think there are, it's a 50-50 chance that
39:51they go to the playoffs and have a good run or the team unravels and Sirianni's out.
39:56Like, I think it's either or. I don't know if there's anything in the middle for them.
40:01No, because it's Super Bowl or bust with them.
40:04I guess. Philadelphia, they have to, because they've won the Super Bowl already before with a similar roster with an elite defense
40:10and can Hurts take another, not even like another step, but get back to a, I'm a playoff winning Super Bowl winning quarterback.
40:17And I know that it's too popular on NFL talking heads to just crap all over Jalen Hurts when it's like, dude, his body works really good.
40:25Very good. Yeah. Like, and I get like, and like last year and people have made comments, especially people that follow the Eagles very close.
40:32It's like, dude, this offense was just like with the tool of calling the shots was so hard.
40:37Like they couldn't, there were a second halves of games that I couldn't complete a pass.
40:42So I'm like, it can't all be on Jalen Hurts because we've seen him play at such a higher level now.
40:48Do I think he's the most like elite pocket?
40:50Like, no, I don't. I do think he has some limitations, but when he is clicking in a system that works for
40:57him, that's playing into his strengths, whether it's his mobility, I think that it's a good way to expand.
41:02Can he thrive in the Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan scheme?
41:05Like that's kind of what Sean Mannion is expected to bring in here.
41:09I thought D-Ro brought up a good point on one of our shows a couple of weeks ago.
41:14Don't praise him, especially when he's not around. No, but like it was good because he, because I've definitely been on like, I like Declan Doyle in Baltimore.
41:23He came from the Ben Johnson tree, et cetera.
41:25But then like Sean Mannion doesn't really get that type of puff piece or like hype because, well, he's not Declan Doyle.
41:32He didn't come from the Ben Johnson offense. He came from the Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan offense.
41:37And they're both unknown commodities at this point, even though he was an office coordinator last year, Declan Doyle.
41:42No, you know, he wasn't calling the shots. Like it was clearly Ben Johnson calling the shots in Chicago.
41:48So I think that we'll wait and see to see how Sean Mannion actually impacts his offense.
41:53But it's got to be, it has to be better than last year because it can't get worse.
41:58I mean, they were egging this guy's house because of how bad it was like.
42:02Philly, I love you. You're my second home. I'll always love you.
42:06This is, I live there six years. Beautiful time.
42:08Love you, Philly. All right. Let's talk about one more guy here, Pat Baker Mayfield, which is a perfect transition to the
42:15teams we're going to talk about in a second too.
42:18But this is another one that I considered also, where again, he said some good individual seasons, but we're waiting for that run, right?
42:25And last year it felt like we were starting to get the Baker Mayfield MVP run for six weeks.
42:30It was all gangbusters. And then after that, it was all in the toilet.
42:34Injuries, bad play, everything went south. So talk to me about why Baker Mayfield has so much to prove in 2026.
42:40Well, he's going into the final year of his contract and he has set the start of training camp as a negotiation
42:47deadline, but the Buccaneers don't seem especially eager to make any sort of major commitment to him after the disappointing 2025.
42:53And look, I know the Buccaneers' offensive struggles can't entirely be pinned on Baker.
42:57Like, he was dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder.
43:00The offensive line lost a ton of man games to injuries.
43:04Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missed about half the season.
43:07Emeka Buka started fast and then tweaked his hamstring and fell off.
43:10Bucky Irving missed time. So there's just no denying Baker didn't play well.
43:14His completion percentage fell by about eight percentage points.
43:17He went from 7.9 yards per pass attempt to 6.8 in 2025.
43:20He ranked 20th among starting QBs and expected points added per play.
43:24He fumbled 11 times. It's just a subpar season.
43:26And he's 31 now. I just wonder if Baker Mayfield can survive another mediocre season and still be a starter anywhere in
43:332027 because this quarterback class we've got coming in next year, I think there are at least two immediate starters in Arch
43:39Manning and Dante Moore, maybe a few others, whoever you want to pick from the potential first rounders, guys like CJ Carr and Julian San.
43:46So it's possible. Like, that quarterback class is going to steal jobs.
43:50And I wonder if Baker Mayfield is one of the guys whose job gets stolen.
43:54We're going to talk about some teams here coming up in a second, but stay tuned to the end of the show
44:01because we've all just got a fun segment we're debuting called AI Slop.
44:05You're going to love this. I want you to stick around for that.
44:08But it's the perfect transition about Baker Mayfield to the team conversation.
44:12And I have two teams that have something to prove.
44:15One is the Buccaneers for all the reasons that Fitzy put out there, right?
44:19This is a chance where Baker Mayfield's bounced around a little bit.
44:22He's landed in a home in Tampa. I think they're nuts if they let him go somewhere else.
44:28I think he's their best chance to be good in the next three years, four years, potentially, unless everything completely unravels and
44:34they change head coach, which is also positive. But to me, when you lose and I've said this before, and I don't
44:40care if I sound like a broken record, when you lose your captain on defense, even though he was in the twilight
44:47of his career, and then you lose your longtime captain on offense, two guys that have been with this team for more than a decade each.
44:54When you lose Levante David, when you lose Mike Evans in the locker room, I think it has a lot to prove.
45:01I also think the coach has a lot to prove, too, because it's one thing to kind of live off the Bruce
45:07Arian tree of things there for a while. Tom Brady comes in, you win a Super Bowl, everything's amazing.
45:13You get the reins handed to you of an incredibly talented team.
45:16And for the most part, you're still competitive. But I do think at a certain point here, Tampa has to look and
45:23say, all right, are we going forward? Are we standing still or are we going backwards?
45:27And I think if the latter two of the answer, it's not good enough anymore.
45:32I think that's where we're at here in those situations.
45:35And then the other team for me that has a lot to prove is the Baltimore Ravens, because this is a team
45:41that for me was my Super Bowl pick last year.
45:44They had the longest tenured group together. Typically, that's a very positive thing in the NFL from a continuity standpoint.
45:50They had a Hall of Fame head coach, an MVP caliber quarterback, and yet everything fell apart for them.
45:55And I mean everything. Now you have a new coach.
45:58You have a new system. You have some new pieces.
46:01You still got a lot of old pieces here.
46:04And they've also got some pieces with age. Derrick Henry's got to prove that he could do it again.
46:09Lamar Jackson's got to prove that he could stay healthy again.
46:13They've got to prove that they can pick up a different offense and implement it quickly and succeed.
46:18They've got to prove that the rest of this division, maybe the Bengals, aren't now a legitimate challenger for them at the top.
46:25All of a sudden now, this whole team has so much to prove and a very short window to do it.
46:31So for me, those are the two organizations that I think have the most to prove in 2026.
46:36And if they fail, I think the Bucs are the team that has more of a redo.
46:41We've already done the redo with the Ravens, yet I still think their expectations are super high and they should be considering
46:47the names that are on that roster on the offensive side and the defensive side of the football.
46:53Fitzy, who are the two teams that have the most to prove, in your opinion, going into 2026?
46:58The Chiefs and the Lions, because in both cases, I don't know exactly where they are right now.
47:03Like for the Chiefs, is the offense still good under Andy Reid?
47:07Like here's where the Chiefs have ranked in yards per play since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter quarterback.
47:12That was 2018. First, second, second, first, first, ninth, 22nd, and 22nd again last year.
47:16Last two years, they've been 22nd yards per play.
47:19The offensive line has kind of gone to seed.
47:22Uh, Travis Kelsey has gotten old and let's face it, Patrick Mahomes himself has not had the same sort of minus touch he had earlier in his career.
47:30And, you know, the defense, a Steve Spagnuolo defense is probably never going to be terrible, but with Trent McDuffie and Jalen
47:36Watson gone, cornerback could be an issue. Unless Mansoor Delane is a star right away.
47:41Leo Chanel is gone. The pass rush is kind of suspect.
47:44Chris Jones turns 33 in a few days, July 3rd.
47:47The AFC West is tough. I mean, the Broncos might have gone to the Super Bowl if Bo Nix hadn't gotten hurt.
47:53The Chargers should be really good this year. The Raiders could turn things around pretty quickly.
47:58So I don't know. What do you guys think the Chiefs are going to be?
48:02Are they Super Bowl contenders if Patrick Mahomes bounces back and stays healthy all year?
48:07Or are they retooling for a run in 2027?
48:09Or are they quietly one of the have-nots in the AFC now?
48:13I don't know. I think they're a team that needs to reinvent themselves.
48:17I think they're doing it too slowly, Fitz. And I think that this would have been the perfect year to rip the
48:23Band-Aid off, ask Travis Kelsey to step away, free up more cap room, just kind of take the L in 2026 to
48:29reinvent this team for the second run of Patrick Mahomes.
48:32Like Brady had one. Andrew, that was my take on the Chiefs.
48:36But I don't know what yours is. I feel like they almost got a pass from everybody after the injury to Mahomes.
48:42I was like, OK, you know what? It's this was great.
48:45We probably got one more run in us, but not the way the roster and the cap and everything was currently structured.
48:52It was a complete disaster. And I don't know if they've done enough quick enough to redo it, save a great second
48:58half run in 2026 where they just get hot at the end and go through.
49:03Maybe that's possible because you have Mahomes. But it's a tough sell for me, Andrew.
49:07It's a rebuilding year, in my opinion, for the Kansas City Chiefs.
49:11I think that expecting Mahomes to be his top tier shelf of himself this year after a devastating knee injury, I think that's asking too much for him.
49:19And that's not to say he can't be productive, especially when he's played a couple games under his belt.
49:24But to your point about the offense kind of falling off the last couple of seasons is Andy Reed not getting up with the time.
49:32He's an older head coach. Again, everybody loses their fastball eventually like happened about like a lot of these great coaches.
49:38Eventually it's like they weren't up to speed with what was new.
49:41Again, they fired Matt Nagy. They brought back Eric Biennium, very similar to what the Patriots did a lot of times where
49:48it's like where they bring they bring back Josh McDaniels again because we're running out of ideas.
49:53So I am encouraged by the enemy back here to maybe because he's now seen a couple different things at different couple
49:59spots now coming back to Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes.
50:02So I do like that pairing. But is Andy Reed, you know, potentially not getting enough.
50:07I don't want to say blame, I guess, for this Chiefs offense kind of falling off the last couple seasons, especially with
50:13the stats that Fitzy just outlined again. Super Bowl winning head coach, Hall of Fame head coach for sure.
50:19But is he starting to slow down a little bit with some of his creative play calling, things like that?
50:24You mentioned the Lions, Fitzy, you know, and that's a team that's had some relative success like Todd Bowles has had relative success.
50:31But I feel like. If the Bucs go wrong, Todd Bowles is going to get possibly hung out to try.
50:37And I feel like if Dan Campbell can't get things back on track here for the Lions, I don't think he should
50:43get heat for it necessarily like too much because they he did take them from the dregs to an annually competitive franchise.
50:50But to his detriment, he's also been some of the undoing sometimes of this franchise and the big spots.
50:55He over coaches. He mismanages fourth downs all the time.
50:58He's too aggressive, too much, too soon in games.
51:01And it always comes back to bite him in the ass.
51:04So how much is Dan Campbell in the hot seat this year for a team with the Lions here?
51:10If they now have a situation where the you know, maybe Jordan Love has a great year.
51:15Maybe, you know, the Bears are, you know, everything bounces their way again.
51:18And you're looking at his division and saying, oh, man, this is super competitive yet again here where the Lions are kind
51:25of looking around going, man, we just got to keep our head above water.
51:29I think it would have to be a total disaster for the Lions this year for Campbell to lose his job.
51:35I think he's got enough insulation. He probably survives this year no matter what.
51:39But it just it seemed like the Lions were building towards something special under Campbell.
51:43So in his first year in 2021, they go three and 13 and one in 2022.
51:48They go nine and eight 2023, 12 and five win the division, lose a heartbreaker in the NFC championship game, arguably because
51:55Campbell did no one to take his foot off the gas.
51:58As you were saying, Joe, 2024, they go 15 and to get the number one seed.
52:02Get upset by the commanders in the divisional round.
52:05And then last year, nine and eight, and they missed the playoffs.
52:09So is that it? Is the Lions run as Super Bowl contenders over?
52:12Because the skill position talent is still exciting, but the offensive line no longer one of the best in the league.
52:18Maybe it could be if some of these young players start to pan out.
52:23They've still got Panay Sewell, but it's not where it was a couple of years ago with the release of Terry and
52:29Arnold, with this crazy, the charges over the kidnapping episode.
52:32Cornerback looks like a real problem. And then they still haven't really found a complimentary pass rusher for Aiden Hutchinson.
52:38So it wouldn't shock me if the Lions won the NFC North this year, but it also wouldn't shock me if they finished fourth.
52:45I agree. All right, Andrew, walk me through the two teams that you think have the most to prove in the NFL this season.
52:52I have the Chargers and the Bears because I think that this year they have sky high expectations.
52:57You look at the Chargers right now, I think that the AFC West is in a vulnerable state to say the least.
53:03I think that the Chargers view this. OK, well, the Raiders are starting rookie quarterback.
53:08The Chiefs are in a rebuild. Obviously, the Broncos are at the top, but we can make some cases and arguments for
53:14the Broncos as a team that could regress in 2026 based on all the second half comebacks based on them having one
53:21of the healthiest defenses in the NFL last year.
53:23Something I pointed out on the betting pro show with Seth was if you look at adjusted games lost, the three healthiest
53:30teams last year in defense were the Raiders, the Chiefs and the Broncos.
53:33The three other teams that in the same division as the L.A.
53:37Chargers, who we all know devastated by injuries last year, specifically on the offensive line.
53:41And I think that held us back from seeing a potential Justin Herbert MVP season because he had everything.
53:47There were at times at the beginning of the year.
53:50Remember talking about shows like on the fantasy side where we're buying quarter.
53:54I was like, dude, Justin Herbert looks like a man on a mission to win MVP.
53:58But then things just fell apart because everyone was injured.
54:01When you look at the numbers when Joe Alt was healthy, he was an MVP level quarterback.
54:06So the Chargers only three in the playoffs with Justin Herbert.
54:09They have not been able to get over that hump, but they've won 11 games in back to back seasons with Harbaugh losing Jesse Minter.
54:17It's a big deal on the defensive side. But for me, I'm putting the Chargers in a category of Super Bowl or bust.
54:23Like they got to do something here. Maybe I'm being too, too aggressive with them as a role because I don't want
54:30to playoff game first with Justin Herbert. That would be good.
54:33That would I mean, it is baby steps. But yet again, but I mean, a lot of big names there that you
54:39got to figure like somebody's got to deliver here on some of this name brand recognition.
54:44Yes, because when you talk about Herbert, if I say Justin Herbert top seven quarterback, what do you guys are?
54:50You guys like, oh, that's ridiculous or like, oh, I don't think it's ridiculous.
54:54Pat, do you? No, I mean, go back and look at the numbers he put up his first three years in the
55:00NFL when he kind of when they kind of had the brains loosened on him and he threw a lot like he is a talented cat.
55:08So, no, that doesn't. I don't object. And I and I think marrying him with Mike McDaniel, right?
55:13Like this pairing with a an advanced offensive mind with a healthy offensive line.
55:17And if you see these other teams potentially take a step back in the AFC West, I can see the Chargers not
55:24just winning this division, but also making a run at the number one seed in the AFC because I think they have
55:30the most competence around Justin Herbert that they've ever had.
55:33So I think that their expectations are going to be high this year, especially when they open the season against the Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders.
55:41I'm telling you right now, like the hype for the Chargers entering week three against the Buffalo Bills is going to be through the roof.
55:49It's going to be like AFC championship game preview against the Buffalo Bills, the Los Angeles Chargers.
55:53So I think that they have a lot of expectations to me.
55:57And I honestly, I think they can now another team.
56:00Again, I mentioned the Bears. Look, I was looking at every year last year.
56:04It was the commanders, a team that went from being on the hunt to then being hunted.
56:09The commanders did not deliver last year. Again, J.
56:12Nails got banged up. The Bears, it's not really about their offense.
56:15I think their offense is going to cook another year with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson.
56:20These second year premier pieces, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, Roma Dunze.
56:23Again, another year for him. I think the offense is going to be really great, but the NFL is betting on the Bears to make another leap.
56:31Again, seven standalone games. They're like Caleb Williams is on the Madden cover.
56:35Like, like the NFL is sleeping with the Bears.
56:37They're like, we're ready to go, baby. Like, come on.
56:40So and this is just to me, it's like this is the classic case of who is the most hyped up team.
56:47They almost never, ever, ever deliver on that hype.
56:49And I look at the defense of the Bears massive holes on this defense.
56:53Still, Ozzy Trapillo is probably not going to play this year.
56:56And I know they added some veteran players, but I still think there's enough holes here and there.
57:02You can pick with the Bears now and having expectations again, winning the division last year.
57:06You think everyone else in that division remembers that?
57:09Yeah. The Bears barely won that division. The Packers are going to be going after the Lions are going to be going after the Vikings.
57:16Like they're not going to sneak up on anybody.
57:19So Caleb Williams has to improve after finishing dead last in completion rate over expectation last year.
57:24I think he can, but for them to then become like a Super Bowl contender, I don't think that's going to happen with this defense.
57:31So I think that the Bears are another team that they have a lot to prove and I'm not so sure they're
57:38going to be able to do it. Great stuff, gentlemen.
57:41What do you think has the most to prove?
57:43Drop your comments. What player, what team? We love hearing from all of you on the tailgate.
57:48We love the conversation in this community. It's what we love to do when we interact with you.
57:53I'll be on there. Erickson, Debro, I'm sure Fitzy will jump in there and defend his Jalen Hurts take from all you crazy Eagles fans.
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59:02Fitzy, thanks so much for jumping in with us today.
59:05I'm sure you'll be on the tailgate more in season as well.
59:08And Andrew Erickson, always a pleasure to speak to you.
59:11And it's always a pleasure when Derek Brown is on vacation.
59:15Oh, what a joy that is. He'll be back next week, but stay tuned because we've got more tailgate shows coming up.
59:21Ring the bell to the ghost ding so you never miss a single one of them.
59:26We got to get out of here. The parking lot's getting full.
59:29We'll see you next time, kids. This has been the tailgate.
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