0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Guerno. Hello everybody, welcome to the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:05I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Andrew Erickson. We're talking some buys and sells at the receiver and tight end positions.
0:11We already did our quarterbacks and running backs episode.
0:13If you missed it, check it out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:18Erickson, let's dive right in. We usually start this episode with sort of a higher level trade strategy advice, macro level thinking from you.
0:25What is your approach to wheeling and dealing right now heading into week six?
0:29I think for me, it's going to be trying to take advantage of some teams with buy weeks.
0:34I know that there's a lot of times where people are having issues trying to fill their starting lineups, whether it's because
0:40they have teams on buy weeks or they're dealing with injuries.
0:43So again, I think the biggest thing when it comes to getting trades done is identifying needs of the other managers and
0:50helping them fill their starting roster is something that is really easy to see when you're perusing the league to try to
0:56figure out who can I make a trade with.
0:58I know that the trade finder tool on fantasy pros also does a really great job of identifying team needs for your opponents in your fantasy leagues.
1:06I think connecting the dots there is really a smart strategy and smart approach as you also look to kind of manage
1:13through buy weeks, because this is when it's really tough and depth is really tested a little bit more.
1:18So making some of these trades, especially if you can pull off some two for one deals or one for two deals
1:24based on what you need in your roster, identifying the needs super, super key.
1:28Is there a buy again in this season? I haven't looked ahead of the schedule.
1:33This is our first four week, four teams on buy week is this week.
1:37I didn't write down the names, but it's like the Bengals, the Vikings, the Dolphins, and I forget the other one off the top of my head.
1:44But is there like a really big one that you're kind of anticipating being like, oh, there's gonna be some desperation mode here coming up at some point?
1:52I think there is a buy again, and there always is because the NFL just loves us to do that.
1:58So you could probably just pull up a schedule right now and just give it a quick look.
2:03But yeah, it's important to be proactive and thinking ahead of it if you can, especially if you have like an extra
2:10roster spot, whether you open something up because of your reserve.
2:13But I thinking one week ahead of time does really put you in an advantageous spot, especially with some of these trades.
2:19I really try to do that a lot with, you know, waivers to like obviously like beating the waiver wire and kind of getting in a week early.
2:27I think looking ahead at the schedule, like even if it's just a week or two in advance is actually really beneficial.
2:33I feel like the by McGinn is usually later in the season whenever it happens.
2:38So it's probably not right before the playoffs. It's like, oh, you're desperate for a win in fantasy this week.
2:43Well, screw you is basically what the NFL say.
2:46Yeah, no. Yeah. Generally speaking, I kind of agree.
2:49Like this time of year, too. Like, man, we just talked in the running back show, Eric, about how difficult it is
2:55to find running backs to buy right now. Everybody's dealing with issues at the position across the board.
3:00So like if you can take advantage of that because somebody is on by and then like needle.
3:05We are at the point of the season, man, like you you need wins.
3:09Like obviously, if you're like, oh, and five already, you're probably writing off the season.
3:14I'm not saying you should. I think that's the way a lot of people think about it, though.
3:19But if you're, you know, one and four, if you're two and three, even like your season's not over.
3:24But there's a real difference between going to three and three this week or two and four this week that like really
3:30does matter in a season where the regular season fantasy is like 14 weeks long.
3:35So, yeah, be looking at these by weeks and like there will be desperation out there for sure.
3:40I think, too, it's also important if you are a team that is like you said, one and four, oh, and five, two and three.
3:47It makes a lot of sense for you to make moves with teams that are four and one or five and oh,
3:53because they may be looking at the players differently.
3:56They may be looking at it in more of a long term view.
4:00So I know we talked about on the running back show that Jeremiah Love was a player that we wanted to buy.
4:06If you're a team that's own five, you probably already have Jeremiah Love on your team, unfortunately.
4:11But if you're a team that's own five, just getting Jeremiah Love now make the most sense.
4:16Maybe not. But if you're five and oh, and you can sit on Jeremiah Love as an asset that, oh, he is going to be my finisher.
4:24So I can win a championship after a three game stretch from love during the fantasy playoffs when he's going to have a bell cow type workload.
4:31I think that's also something to kind of keep me or be aware of when you're making some of these moves or
4:38some of these players that do you need this production now or do you need it later?
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5:25Erickson, who is your wide receiver to buy this week?
5:28I'm going with Luther Burden for the Chicago Bears.
5:31I actually was kind of torn on whether I wanted to feature Luther Burden in here or Roma Dunze.
5:36I do think that both guys are kind of interesting buys.
5:40I think the Bears overall with their receivers are interesting buys because I think Matt Harmon made a comment about this on
5:46X, but it's really hard to have these like declarative takeaways or declarative takeaways for this Bears passing game when we have played one game with Kay Williams.
5:54And that's it. The other game that he played, he got injured and it was against the Minnesota Vikings defense that you,
6:00again, can't have any grand takeaways from because when you're facing Brian for his blitz, it's really hard for that to be sticky in future matchups.
6:08So all I know is from watching the Bears games this season, it seems like Luther Byrd is the guy that is
6:14the most involved through all facets of the passing attack.
6:17So last week caught four of six official targets.
6:19He actually had seven targets, which include penalties, 47 yards.
6:22He also carried the ball four times for two yards.
6:25He had a negative end around in the red zone.
6:28But the peripherals on Luther Byrd have been pretty solid, I would say, given the fact that he hasn't had his starting
6:34quarterback for the majority of the season. And that there is a buying opportunity with some of these Bears passes because they've been mostly underwhelming.
6:41I think for the most part, an offense that we're really excited about just Colson Loveland, Roman Doonesy, Luther Byrd, kind of
6:48like meh type of production for most of the season.
6:51But Byrd leads the Bears in targets this season at 20.3% target share.
6:54He's averaging 1.9 yards per route run. That's really good.
6:57He also has eight red zone targets. So that was one of the things I was hesitant about with buying into Luther
7:04Byrd during the redraft season was no red zone usage as a rookie.
7:07As great as his efficiency metrics were in terms of yards per route run was a zero in the red zone.
7:13That has not been the case this year. Like they have been featuring him a lot more in the red zone, not
7:20only as a receiver, but as a rusher. There was a couple weeks ago against the Eagles.
7:24He had that rushing touchdown with Case Keenum as the starting quarterback.
7:28So I think the fact that he is being used through all the facets as both a rusher and receiver, I think
7:34that he is a really interesting buy low candidate just because I don't think a lot of people are talking about Luther
7:41Byrd just because he's kind of been more of a floor play than ceiling play this season.
7:45But we could see that ceiling unlocked when Caleb Williams eventually does return.
7:49I know that there have been conversations about him coming back this week against Atlanta.
7:53Atlanta, I not see anything definitive that backs that up.
7:56But I think that at worst, it'll probably be that Thursday night game against the New England Patriots on a short week.
8:03Yeah, I saw the same thing where it's not anything like super declarative about if he's coming back this week, but that
8:09it's, you know, it's a possibility at the very least.
8:12Yeah, Luther Byrd and wide receiver 29. Obviously, that's dropped a lot from where it was, you know, preseason.
8:17It's dropped six spots just in the last week.
8:20Like, there are definitely receivers ahead of him. Like, somebody like A.J.
8:23Brown, who is still injured and isn't back yet.
8:26Like, who would you rather have just in a vacuum rest of the season between those two?
8:31You can't put me in that type of position, Worm.
8:34A.J. Brown versus Luther Byrd. Mike Ripple did say A.J.
8:36Brown could practice this week. So that does work in his favor.
8:40I mean, if you need wins now, you can't go get A.J.
8:43Brown, right? A.J. Brown would be a player you trade for if you're 5-0 and you're feeling good, although I don't know how you're 5-0.
8:50If you drafted A.J. Brown, I guess you could have drafted Parker Washington and Christian Watson, so he probably would have been okay.
8:57What about Rasheed Rice then? Him or Luther Byrd?
9:00I think I'd rather have Byrd than Byrd than Byrd.
9:03The fact that Byrd has a hamstring injury is concerning to me, whereas Byrd is healthy.
9:07He has four catches and 47 yards at least in four of his five games played this season.
9:12And he actually did have a pretty solid game in Caleb Williams's full start against the Carolina Panthers, which was mostly run heavy.
9:19But Byrd actually was kind of solid. We've kind of seen the Kalief Raymond thing kind of fizzle out the last couple of games.
9:26So that does continue. I know, right? Shock. Just like a limited Zacchaeus, man.
9:30It's the exact same thing with Ben Johnson. The veterans for three weeks, the ultimate tease.
9:34So I think that Byrd and Odunze, again, him as well.
9:38I mean, he's coming off a game where he saw a lot of opportunities.
9:42And they're playing the Falcons next, right? How do you attack the Falcons?
9:45Through the air. Like, that is exactly how you attack this team.
9:49So that's my by-low. Man, we've talked a lot about Bears on these shows because that end-of-season schedule is awesome.
9:54Like, week 11 through week 17, Saints, Lions, Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo, Green Bay, Lions again.
9:59That's, like, a really intriguing group of defenses there if Byrd can kind of get going.
10:03For me, I just – I kind of wonder, like, where do you think the touchdowns are going to end up at this season?
10:10Like, let's say Caleb's back, you know, relatively soon and neither of them gets hurt.
10:15Like, he had two receiving touchdowns last year. Obviously, first half of last year wasn't really getting used as he was, you
10:21know, a rookie breaking his way to the NFL.
10:23But, like, it hasn't been a big part of his game getting usage in the red zone.
10:28Even if he ends up being pretty efficient and breaking out in that way the way we expected or if some people
10:35were kind of hyped on in August. Like, if he's not getting touchdowns, that's going to put a cap on the ceiling.
10:41Are you thinking about that at all or do you expect that to come as, you know, Caleb's back and the offense looks better?
10:48Well, I did mention that he has eight red zone targets this year.
10:51That's true, yes. Yeah, so, like, that has been the big thing and difference from my preseason evaluation of Luther Burden where
10:58I was fading him, did not like him at his price.
11:01Obviously, that has worked out in my favor, but that's because of the Caleb Williams injury and just kind of how the
11:07Bears offense has been really inconsistent in terms of who is the focal point of the offense.
11:12But every single week, Luther Burden has had a pretty integral role.
11:16And that's why I feel like his floor has already been there.
11:19So if he just ends up being like a wide receiver three, okay, that's probably what you paid for to get him.
11:25But you get this potential upside case with him as a talent, as a second year player that we know is really, really efficient.
11:32And if Caleb Williams comes back and is as advertised, like he was in the first game of the season, maybe he's not running as much.
11:40Although we talked about with Jaden Daniels, these guys just run no matter what.
11:44It's just they're in their being that they're going to be mobile.
11:47But off a hamstring injury, maybe that's a little bit of a different conversation.
11:51And the Bears defense is still terrible, right? So this team is going to have to play in shootouts.
11:57They're going to play all the NFC North shootout games.
11:59They already faced the Vikings once. So we need to go through that again, at least for a little bit.
12:05And we get two Packers match. Or we already had a Packers matchup.
12:09But another matchup against the Green Bay Packers. You have the Lions.
12:12That'll come up in the future as well. And those are going to be really high scoring games.
12:18So Luther Burden, I think the floor is there.
12:20And then there's a ceiling potential with Caleb coming back.
12:23So that's why I like him as a bye.
12:26You said, you know, oh, he can just be a wide receiver three with the floor.
12:30To be clear, he has not been a wide receiver three in any game except for week three of this season.
12:36He's been wide. And this is a half PPR scoring.
12:39According to our game log, wide receiver 43, 66, 15, 40, and 42.
12:43So it's been more like a wide receiver four.
12:45All right, let's go to my wide receiver to buy.
12:48And it's going to be kind of funny in hindsight that I just sort of talked down on like, oh, look at
12:55the production from your wide receiver that you want to buy.
12:58When I'm going to sit here and say you should buy Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:02And here is the real thought behind it. Every single bit of analysis that I have seen since he was traded to
13:08the Houston Texans from any sort of expert or industry person is go see what you can get for Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:14As in go sell him now. And when everybody is on the same page like that, I tend to want to try
13:21to, you know, zig when they're zagging and go the other way against it.
13:25And I think it's not just that I want to philosophically like push against the grain a little.
13:30It's that I think the fact that everybody is out there saying you should sell and take advantage.
13:35This is your sell window. Go sell Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:38Is going to even further lower the price. And therefore, if you can get him for crazy cheap, which I actually think
13:44is very possible because anybody who has him is very done with Marvin Harrison Jr.
13:48They want to have him off their roster. They're probably not a believer anymore.
13:52And they're seeing all these other analysts say go, go, go sell.
13:56And he's ranked 54th in the rest of season rankings.
13:59Like the market value is not there. You are getting a lottery ticket here.
14:03It doesn't mean it's going to pan out. In fact, the overwhelming likelihood is that it doesn't work out just given everything
14:09we see in the evidence of Marvin Harrison Jr.
14:12But I think you can get him for basically free and take a swing on, hey, you know, the last time Marvin Harrison Jr.
14:19looked like an elite receiver was when his quarterback was CJ Stroud.
14:22And that's who it is. Actually, I forget exactly when they overlapped.
14:25But they did overlap in college, of course. And he looked amazing, you know, in that time.
14:30You know, it's an opportunity in an offense that, as I discussed in our running back show, cannot run the ball.
14:36Therefore, I think they're going to throw the ball a lot.
14:39The Texans have never really embraced Jalen Knoll the way I think they should, meaning like wide receiver two feels up for
14:46grabs in this offense with Jaden Higgins hurt. And Noel not as loved by the, you know, play caller there that as I think he should be.
14:54And wide receiver one is Nico Collins, who has struggled to stay on the field the last couple of years, you know, with injury issues.
15:01So if the Texans are giving up a second round pick in a loaded draft for this guy, I think they're going
15:07to be very incentivized to try to unlock him and use him in a smarter way than Arizona has.
15:12I think the target's going to go up compared to what we saw with the Cardinals.
15:17I still think he's a talented player, even if he's not, you know, elite prospect level talent like we kind of expected
15:23when he was coming into the draft. And I think there is I just think there's an opportunity here for zero cost.
15:30And that's really what it comes down to at the end of the day.
15:34I'm not sitting here saying you've got to spend up to go get Marvin Harrison Jr.
15:38on your roster. And oh, boy, this is definitely going to work.
15:42And I'm like super gung ho about it. But I'm saying he's going to cost you nothing because every single person who
15:48has him on their roster is reading all the same articles this week say you should be trying to take advantage of selling Marvin Harrison Jr.
15:55I think you can take advantage by going the other direction on it.
15:59Year three for wide receivers is the most common year that they break out and have their best season of their career.
16:05C.J. Stroud famously his rookie year made another third year wide receiver breakout all over the place.
16:10Who was his name? Nico Collins. Nico Collins. Yeah.
16:13Nico Collins was kind of seldom for the first two years of the season or the two years of his NFL career.
16:19He flashed a little bit, but he played on Texans team with bad quarterback play and never really popped.
16:25He got C.J. Stroud. And when do you know what happened?
16:28And then the rest is history. And you call us has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since his third season.
16:35I think you hit the nail on the head here with Marvin Harrison Jr.
16:39as a bye, right? He finally has a quarterback that actually believes in him where week one of his rookie year, Marvin
16:45Harrison Jr., what does Kyler Murray say? It's not my job to get Marvin Harrison Jr.
16:50the ball. Like that's kind of like demoralizing for a rookie wide receiver in his first game when he doesn't get any targets.
16:57And then what did he do in the next game?
16:59He had a monster performance. So it's like Marvin Harrison Jr.
17:03has never had good games. Like he's had some good games at the NFL level.
17:07If you look at what he's done the first two years of his career, yeah, it's been underwhelming.
17:12But that's all been based on expectation, right? The expectation has been so high for this guy.
17:17He was being drafted in the first round as a rookie and redraft.
17:21Like, so yeah, it's really hard for him to hit those bars.
17:24But now with no expectation with him where it's like bottom of the barrel, maybe it can be better with C.J.
17:30Stroud. What if it's like good with C.J. Stroud?
17:33Because that's what the last time we saw these guys play together, it was good with C.J.
17:38Stroud. Now, yeah, I pulled up, by the way, that 22 season was the one where they overlapped his starters.
17:43Yeah. And it was a great season. He had 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns in college.
17:48So I think that there's touchdown appeal here with how well C.J.
17:51Stroud is playing. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a red zone guy through the two years of his NFL career.
17:57Really not. I mean, obviously, he hasn't played that much this year for the Arizona Cardinals.
18:02But he's also been a guy that's seen a lot of downfield targets.
18:05He's seen a lot of end zone targets. So these high value opportunities Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:10has been generating and are usually a signal of a player that, hey, this guy can produce for fantasy football purposes.
18:16So I think that this is the right call.
18:19I think it's just a matter of what is a buy low when it comes to Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:24It's one of these words, kick the tires, man.
18:27Throw a couple of bench receivers to the Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:30manager. Kind of get appeal or an idea of what are they looking for?
18:34Because what if he comes in, steps up as the number one guy?
18:37C.J. Stroud believes in him. I do think it's actually interesting, too, if you look at the schedule for the Houston Texans.
18:44Look who they're playing. They're playing the Jaguars. They're playing the Giants.
18:47Then they have a bye week. And then they're playing the Chargers.
18:51Three of those teams that they're facing all had receivers drafted in the same draft as Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:56So Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Neighbors, and Lad McConkie.
18:59So it's like, dude, Marvin Jr., man, it's time to ball out, dude.
19:02Like, this is your time. You got to show why you were the guy that was drafted first, which clearly was not right.
19:09But, hey, maybe you just needed the right quarterback.
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21:11It really comes down to costs. He's so affordable right now, and he wouldn't be the first 24-year-old to finally put it all together.
21:18In any industry, let alone as an athlete playing at the NFL level.
21:22He's not old. He's not washed. It's not been good.
21:25I'm not sitting here saying he, again, here's the underlying metric that highlights what a steal he's going to be no matter what.
21:31I just think it's good risk-reward when the cost is this low, and we believe that the possibility for a ceiling is this high.
21:38Change of scenery, getting back with a college quarterback, used a little bit differently in this offense, or just, again, puts it all together as a 24-year-old.
21:46I think that's all on the table in a way that's not reflected in the cost.
21:50So, to me, he's a really smart buy, even if it doesn't work, and that's an important thing to say.
21:56Like, sometimes you make trades like this because it's good process, and it's a good risk-reward assessment.
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22:29Erickson, who's your wide receiver to sell? This one pains me, but I'm just trusting the process here, and it's going to
22:35be Mike Evans for the San Francisco 49ers. Because this is not about his play, because he has been elite.
22:41The last two games for the San Francisco 49ers, he's been the engine of this passing attack.
22:46Last game, led the team with 10 targets, 33% target share, 7 catches, 113 yards.
22:50Again, one of the best games we've seen from a wide receiver against the Seattle Seahawks.
22:54Caught a touchdown, successful 2.1 conversion on just 24 routes run, contested catch machine.
22:58But I've seen this with Mike Evans before. And we know that the annual hamstring injury is going to rear its ugly head at some point.
23:06And with him just coming off looking so absolutely fantastic in the 49ers' last game against Seattle Seahawks, I just think that
23:12this is the prime time to get a King's Ransom for Mike Evans.
23:16When the narrative is that all the injuries are behind him, he looks like a 27-year-old and not actually a 33-year-old, because that's actually what his age is.
23:24And he's playing the Commanders this week, right? Like, again, I don't want to trade Mike Evans for nothing.
23:29But I also want to be real with when I did my write-ups for Mike Evans as a player to target in drafts.
23:36I have him on a lot of teams. I also wrote it with the caveat that he, to me, seems like a
23:42player that you want to sell high on after a really strong start to the season.
23:47Because this is what this player and profile tends to do.
23:50He's an older wide receiver that's playing in an offense that has lost already a bunch of bodies at the receiver position.
23:56And that's why he's going to be successful. So this is not to sell Mike Evans for pennies on the dollar.
24:02This is like, no, I want a really strong return for Mike Evans.
24:06Like, that's really the play here as a sell high.
24:09What do you think? I mean, you say you don't want to give him away for anything.
24:14You want a strong return. Are you looking at a receiver you like better?
24:18Are you looking at a package deal? Are you looking at, like, oh, maybe you can go get a running back?
24:24Like, what's the first name that comes to mind when you look to move him?
24:28I think maybe a running back to buy. I know we talked about there's not a lot of running backs to buy
24:34right now besides the actual, like, star studded players.
24:37I guess maybe if there is a running back that someone's kind of just like, meh about that you could try to trade for that's an established player.
24:45But I think it's probably just for a receiver that I feel better about more long term.
24:50I mean, does... Do you think you can move him for Matthew Golden?
24:54They're two spots apart in the consensus rest of season rankings.
24:57I think so. You could probably move him for Matthew Golden.
25:00Can't move for Parker Washington anymore. Although Parker Washington was a buy low last week.
25:04I don't know what the exact return is for Mike Evans, but I think that I'd have to look more at the
25:11rest of season rankings to kind of get an idea.
25:13And look, again, I have him on a bunch of teams.
25:17Like, I'm going to be sending out offers and I'll report back.
25:20And I'll be like, hey, this is like kind of what I ended up getting bites on for Mike Evans.
25:26I think it obviously depends on roster fit. But I just, I think that this is just a really good time to sell high on Mike Evans.
25:34Because would you agree? Like, his stock is really, really high right now.
25:37Definitely. Yeah. I mean, it's a different type of player than Jane Daniels.
25:41But in the last show we did taped earlier this morning, we talked about similar in terms of just like, like, I
25:47don't think the injury risk is gone just because they had a big week.
25:51It's the same thing for Jane Daniels. But he's also playing with crack ribs, right?
25:56Like, that's the other thing. He is already injured.
25:58He's actually just, and he's playing through it because he's an absolute freaking warrior.
26:02I mean, D-Bro, every time we do a show, he's like, oh, Mike Evans is a warrior, man.
26:07Like, what's that? I'm like, yes, but eventually, you know, get limited or not be able to play.
26:13Like, he is a warrior. Nobody is doubting that.
26:15But I think it is, again, just probably smart process to trade a guy, like, at his age, current injury situation, injury
26:21history, playing as well as he is, a volatile position regardless.
26:25Like, the one thing is, like, there's just so many injuries in this offense that, like, when he's on the field, man,
26:31like, where else are they going to go? And Brock Purdy's playing so well that you want a piece of it.
26:37But I think it's more likely than not that he, well, maybe I shouldn't say that.
26:41I think it's very possible that he misses time at some point this season, just given age, injury, history, all of it.
26:48He's 33 years old. That doesn't typically, you know, mean a fully healthy season at the NFL level.
26:53So, I don't want to say it's likely, but I think it's very possible that he misses time and you might miss
26:59the window selling high when right now he's a top 20 wide receiver in the rest of the season rankings.
27:05What are the names around him? Like, go from, like, 15 to 25.
27:09I'm kind of curious. Actually, go 12 through 20.
27:1112 through 20. He is 20. So, 12 through 20 is Neighbors.
27:15Neighbors, Watson, Teddero McMillan, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Devontae Adams, Matthew Golden, Michael Wilson.
27:19And then I'll just give you the three names after him are T.
27:23Higgins, Devontae Smith, A.J. Brown. See, like, T. Higgins is kind of interesting as a – because to me, he seems like he's safe, right?
27:30Like, I'm not concerned. I mean, obviously, I know he got banged up, but he played last week.
27:35Like, he's coming off kind of a so-so game.
27:37But we know that this Bengals offense is starting to get going.
27:41I think – I mean, would you rather have T.
27:44Higgins or Mike Evans the rest of the season?
27:46I mean, I don't know. I feel like I exactly know what I'm going to get out of T.
27:52Higgins. Like, he's going to be a wide receiver too.
27:55Like, at worst. I think I'd rather have T.
27:57Higgins. I think – and I think that's a trade you get done because T.
28:02Higgins doesn't want to buy a league. So, I think that's a – I think Devontae Smith's interesting too.
28:07Again, he's two spots behind Mike Evans. Yeah, and that's the other name I thought was interesting.
28:12But he's already hurt. And this Eagles offense, like, I mean – Yeah.
28:16I'm going to get into buying a player on them.
28:18But it's one that you're like, I'm going to buy this Eagles player.
28:22But, like, it's got to be cheap because you're just – the offense has been so bad this season.
28:28DJ Moore is the next spot down too. I mean, he's also dealing with an injury.
28:32But, you know, getting nice usage when he's been on the field and a great offense.
28:37Would Pickens work? Or Pickens is coming off a good game.
28:40Yeah, Pickens is interesting because he's coming off of his best game of the season by far.
28:45He finally got in the end zone. Really three weeks in a row, though, he's had, you know, good yardage totals.
28:5182-75-130. 82 of those games he's had at least 11 targets.
28:54So if he's kind of, like, taking a step forward here and turning things around, then that could be interesting.
29:00I think I would – I've just been lower on Pickens kind of from the beginning, honestly.
29:05So I'm probably not the right person to ask.
29:07I think I would rather have Mike Evans than George Pickens the rest of the season.
29:12But I think other people would not feel that way for sure.
29:15Okay. But it's a – it's not a, oh, I'm going to totally reject this type of trade where it's in the – I don't think so.
29:23Yeah. Yeah. So – but that's – I think that's good to have the conversation about, like, what can you actually get from Mike Evans?
29:30Like, George Pickens. Like, that's a potential, especially with this Lamb injury not deemed to be super long-term because that could go
29:36back to – well, Pickens only went off because Lamb got hurt.
29:40And Lamb's coming back. And Pickens is going to go back to being underwhelming like he was the first four weeks of
29:46the season, which you obviously have pointed out when you talked about him as a sell.
29:51Yeah. All right. Let's go to my player to sell.
29:54It's Jameson Williams. This is an Erickson special. And I know he has the bye week this week, which makes it a little different.
30:01But I think in the years you and I have been doing this show together, Erickson, multiple times you have come on
30:07here and said, like, Jameson Williams is the guy that you try to time the market on.
30:12And if he has a down week, it's probably smart to buy.
30:15And if he has a boom week, he's probably smart to sell.
30:19And he's coming off of a boom week. And now that boom week, he only had 47 receiving yards.
30:24He just happened to get two touchdowns because both of his catches went for touchdowns against the Cardinals.
30:29He has 18 catches on the season through five weeks and really only won really great game in terms of usage.
30:35And even in that game, it was eight targets, six catches, and 102 yards.
30:39So you didn't have a touchdown. It was good.
30:42It wasn't like, you know, some world's beating game.
30:44If you're a receiver who's already boom or bust and you're coming off a week where you're wide receiver 11 on the
30:51week, but you only had four targets, just like, again, on principle, I feel like that's the right time to be thinking about selling.
30:58So if somebody looks at these two weeks combined and say, well, hey, the last two weeks, wide receiver 19, wide receiver
31:0411, there's even more ceiling to come. This is a great offense, all that stuff.
31:08And they're willing to pay up because they need receiver help, which a lot of people, there's a lot of injuries at the position.
31:15Like there are people who will definitely need receiver help.
31:18Then I think it's the right time to sell.
31:21And I don't have like a specific name in mind of like, oh, I think you should go move him for player X.
31:27But I just think generally speaking, you should be soliciting offers.
31:30Maybe it's more of a shop him than a sell him and see what you get back because maybe managers aren't as
31:37interested in acquiring him as I'm thinking they will be.
31:39But a player that there were folks who expected to break out this year or, you know, step forward, I guess is a better way to put it.
31:47And it hasn't happened. Usage has not been there.
31:50Take advantage of the two touchdown week. Yeah, super boomer bust.
31:53It was his best performance in terms of his fantasy outing.
31:56And it came on his lowest catch total of the year with two catches.
32:00So like that's just putting into context and perspective of, yes, this is like the quintessential sell high, especially with him still
32:07lagging in target share in this offense. So he's behind St.
32:10Brown, Laporta. He's actually fourth on the team in target share at 15.4 percent.
32:14But he leaves the team in area yard share at 31 percent.
32:17So it's boomer bust. Right. And I tell this to people all the time when JMO was struggling this year.
32:23It's what do I do? I don't know what to do.
32:26Jameson Williams. I said, just wait and then get off the ride.
32:30Right. If you don't want to deal with the boomer bust nature, Jameson Williams, and that depends on what kind of league it is.
32:36Sometimes it's better to take the bad with the good with JMO where he can put up performances that can be weak
32:43winning for you, especially with the way the Lions play their games.
32:46Shootout potential in every single match that they play.
32:49And that obviously caters well to Jameson. But that's been the case all year long.
32:53And Jameson Williams has been moving robust. So I don't think that the game scripts are at least they haven't been enough
32:59for him to be a more consistent asset. The big change between this year and last year was Sam Laporta.
33:05Right. With Laporta back in the lineup, Jameson Williams doesn't see nearly enough volume that is making him not as consistent.
33:11So I do think this is the right process play.
33:14And it's just a matter of like thinking about what can you get in return for JMO.
33:19I think it's probably a good sweetener as part of a deal where you add him as that extra piece to move
33:25it over the top where, you know, like, yeah, because Jameson Williams does have big games.
33:30Like he's not a totally useless asset by any means.
33:33He's also a really good life, real life player.
33:35But the consistency can leave you a lot to be desired.
33:38By Monday night, the advice is in, your lineups are locked, and all you can do is watch.
33:44Maybe you're protecting a one-point lead. Maybe you need 12 out of your flex.
33:48Or maybe your opponent has one kicker left and now every field goal attempt feels personal.
33:52Make one part of the night perfect. Get DiGiorno pizza ready for kickoff.
33:56Then settle in, enjoy restaurant-quality pizza from your own oven, and stay locked into the matchup through the final snap.
34:02You don't want to step away when one target, one touchdown, or one unnecessary point can decide your week.
34:07Buy DiGiorno pizza on the weekend run so you at least know Monday night dinner is covered.
34:12Rankings can guide you. Waivers can save you. But once the game starts, fantasy brings the chaos.
34:17Dinner doesn't have to. It's not delivery. It's DiGiorno.
34:19Are you buying or selling a tight end this week?
34:22I'm going to go to buying a tight end Dallas Goddard for the Philadelphia Eagles.
34:27And I just talked about how I don't necessarily love buying Eagles players, but right now Dallas Goddard looks like the only show in town.
34:34Because we don't know when Devonta Smith is going to come back.
34:37Seagum Barkley is still injured. They're down to their fourth string running back.
34:41And immediately from the jump, he came back from his injury last week.
34:45And six of nine targets. He actually had ten targets when you include penalties.
34:49He's 55 true receiving yards because he had a pass interference call that erased a 17-yard gain from him.
34:54And this was on just like kind of modest usage.
34:5769% snap share. 68% of the dropbacks. Eagles right now are devoid of playmakers.
35:01And I think the matchups are actually really good for Dallas Goddard.
35:04When you look at Panthers, Cowboys, Commanders, Giants. So if he is the focal point of this passing attack, because we've just
35:11kind of seen Dontamian Wicks, Makai Lemon, Darius Cooper.
35:13Just none of these guys have really stepped up in a massive, massive way for in terms of target share.
35:19So I think that Dallas Goddard could be the number one guy for the next couple weeks for the Eagles passing game.
35:25I think Hurts has not actually been like so terrible.
35:28I know that the circumstances around him have really crumbled and that's obviously hindered his ability.
35:33But he knows where his bread is butter with Dallas Goddard, right?
35:36These guys have played together for a long time.
35:39And he is one of the guys that Hurts has a lot of confidence in, Rappaport with.
35:44So I think that Dallas Goddard, again, nobody wants the Eagles offense.
35:47I totally get that. But he plays tight end, right?
35:50So the bar is already pretty low when it comes to like tight end standards.
35:54If you're going to give me nine targets for a tight end, like I'm going to buy basically no matter what.
36:00Dallas Goddard or Colston Loveland, rest of the season?
36:03Oh, man. Dude, the Loveland love, man, is so waning.
36:06It's just so hard to keep holding on. But I think I'm going to probably go with Goddard for right now just because he gets targets, man.
36:14Like that's the thing. Loveland doesn't get enough volume.
36:16He's not getting any volume. What about Goddard or Strange?
36:19Yeah, Strange has been interesting in the last two weeks.
36:22Yeah, he's bounced back pretty – he had kind of a slow start to the year, had the Bengals game.
36:28Then obviously had this big game – bigger game against the Philadelphia Eagles in London.
36:32I still think the Jags like to spread it out so much, though, between their pass catchers.
36:37So I think that right now with Goddard just looking like he could be the focal point based on seeing double-digit targets
36:43in his first game back from injury, I think I actually prefer Goddard.
36:47Okay. I think that's a pretty good toss-up, actually.
36:49I want to think more on that. I think my gut reaction is maybe strange, but I really could go back and forth on that.
36:57All right, Erickson. Let's do some buy, sell, or hold trios and get out of here.
37:01First one, and it's a couple of names that we talked about actually when we were discussing your wide receiver earlier.
37:07How about Michael Wilson, Devontae Smith, George Pickens? Guys are all kind of around Mike Evans from that discussion.
37:13But Michael Wilson, Devontae Smith, George Pickens, buy, sell, or hold.
37:16Again, as a reminder, not a ranking, an assessment of market value.
37:19So I would say that Michael Wilson would probably be my buy, right?
37:23Because he's coming off a game where he disappointed against the Detroit Lions.
37:27They just traded away Marvin Harrison Jr., although he wasn't really eating into Michael Wilson's target share or anything this season.
37:33And he has got rapport with Jacoby Brissett. Devontae Smith feels like a sell, but can you sell a guy who hasn't played?
37:39The Eagles offense has been terrible. He's dealing with a hamstring injury.
37:43I think that there are better days ahead for Devontae Smith where he's at least a hold for me.
37:48I think that you're just selling rock bottom for him, and that doesn't make a lot of sense from a profit standpoint.
37:55And then I guess I would go back to your sell about George Pickens, right?
37:59Where you could spin the argument to, yeah, he finally had a good game.
38:03And that was a game Lamb got hurt in, right?
38:06So that's why you capitalize because it's going to go back to how it was in the beginning of the season with Pickens.
38:12I think Pickens is probably also ranked the highest among all three of these guys in the rest of the season rankings,
38:19which I don't necessarily disagree with, but also means that you can get the most for him in return.
38:24Do you have any major pushbacks on Wilson as the buy, Smith as the hold, and Pickens as the sell?
38:30None of them lines up with what I would have picked.
38:33Okay, all right. Well, then, yeah, I want to hear what you have to say.
38:37Well, I wouldn't say it's like a major pushback because I think you have very sound logic.
38:42And I picked these names because when I put these trios together, it's because I want to sort of help work through my thinking on them.
38:50Like Michael Wilson, for example, is somebody that I really wanted to talk about on this episode, but I didn't feel like
38:56I had a really good spot for it because I didn't feel strongly about a buy versus a sell.
39:01So I wanted to include him here. I do think amongst these three, I would actually sell Michael Wilson because I think
39:08you would get the most value for him right now.
39:10Now people are going to be very interested in – and it's not that much of a target share difference, right?
39:17Marvin Harrison Jr. is getting like three targets a game, and yet I think the narrative is more like, okay, now look
39:23at this runway Michael Wilson will have as sort of the main target besides Trey McBride in this offense.
39:28I still think he's going to be behind McBride over the course of the season in terms of target share.
39:34And you talked about how we might see changes in this offense, like rumors of Carson Beck coming on, and if that
39:40happens, Beck might not be that good. Maybe he's good.
39:43He looks good in the preseason game, but like who knows, right?
39:47So I think it's probably smart to sell Michael Wilson if you can get pretty good value from him, which I think you can right now.
39:54And then I want to be buying Devontae Smith coming off this injury, and people are really worried about the Eagles' offense.
40:00I think rightfully so. I just think he's a really good player, and whenever he's been on the field without A.J.
40:06Brown, he has produced. I don't want to forget that just because he's been hurt for the last couple of weeks.
40:12When he's back on the field and healthy, I think Devontae Smith will outperform his current ranking, which is like wide receiver
40:1922 or something in the rest of season rankings.
40:21I think that will be too low even if the Eagles' offense continues to struggle once Devontae Smith gets healthy.
40:27So if you can get a bit of a discount because he's been injured, I actually think that's a smart play on the market.
40:34And then that leaves Pickens as the hold, which I don't feel as strongly about.
40:38Like, oh, I want to come sit here and say he's definitely a hold.
40:42But I feel stronger about Wilson being a sell and Smith being a buy amongst these three.
40:47You've convinced me. I like your answers and logic better than mine, but I'm glad that we got a chance to go
40:53through it because whenever I get these – because you have a little bit more of a pre-traumation.
40:59I have the advantage of I put them together, so I've already been thinking about them.
41:03So you can kind of work through it a little bit.
41:06I don't look at these until we go live here because I think it's better to get the initial reaction.
41:12So I think you see Michael Wilson and you think, bye, right?
41:16Because, oh, like Marvin Harrison's gone. But to your point, he was already gone.
41:20Like, he was not hindering. And Michael Wilson, I know the usage has been really good this year.
41:25The efficiency has not been there this year for him.
41:28And he had this teed-up spot against the Detroit Lions and did not deliver.
41:32And Marvin Harrison Jr. did not play in this game for the Arizona Cardinals.
41:36So I think you're onto something here, Worm, with this, especially when I look at these three receivers.
41:41And if I just ask you in a vacuum, rank these three receivers in real life, we're both agreeing that Michael Wilson is by far last.
41:48And it's probably not even – like, right? That's not even a conversation.
41:52In real-life talent, you're saying? Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Yeah, it's not even close.
41:56So, again, with receiver, I think that this position is the most real-life talent dependent.
42:00I think that more often than not, the best wide receivers eventually do come to roost in terms of their production because they are good in real life.
42:08You actually have – you can't – it's hard to scam your way to be a really productive fantasy wide receiver in most cases.
42:15Now, obviously, there's an exception to every rule. But usually, if you're really good at receiver, you're going to be productive for fantasy.
42:21And when the opportunity or the environment is suppressed or pressing down a player's stock, like a Devontae Smith, like Pickens has
42:28kind of been, usually it's good buying opportunities. You always want to buy the talent at receiver.
42:33And I think that, yeah, you're onto something here with Michael Wilson as the sell because me coming on to and saying
42:39that he was a buy also indicates like the market is there for Michael Wilson where you can ship him off and
42:45still get a really, really strong return. Because I think that that's the gut reaction to, oh, you just got to buy Michael Wilson.
42:52You have to buy this guy seeing so many targets.
42:55But it really hasn't turned them into a lot of production, especially – I mean, disappointing against the Lions.
43:00Like, you know, sometimes we can't be so forgiving.
43:03I would ask who is the more talented receiver between Pickens and Devontae Smith, but I don't want to make either the
43:09Cowboys or Eagles fan base mad at us. So we won't ask that question.
43:13We can go quicker on the other buy, sell, or hold trio.
43:17Denzel Boston, Carnell Tate, Jalen Coker. Carnell Tate has appeared on these trios a few times already this season, but I just
43:23felt like he was a good fit. I wanted him and Denzel Boston, the two rookies together.
43:28And then Jalen Coker, who, of course, is coming off of a bye week and, you know, was injured the week before,
43:34but has looked really good at times this season in those first three weeks, really those first two weeks.
43:40And I think it's generally a player people are excited about.
43:43So a couple of rookie receivers who are generally really good bets.
43:46Boston looks awesome already. Tate's getting good usage even if the offense is bad.
43:50And then a player that's coming off of not playing for two weeks in a row, but who has looked really good as well.
43:57They're all within about five spots of each other in ECR.
44:00How are you assessing buy, sell, or hold? Again, Denzel Boston, Carnell Tate, Jalen Coker.
44:05I want to buy Denzel Boston. I think that what he's been able to do as a rookie with Deshaun Watson as
44:11his quarterback should not go unnoticed in how impressive he has been delivering every single week in some capacity.
44:16Now you have Casey Concepcion dealing with an injury, brutal concussion that he's suffered in this last game.
44:22I mean, I guess I could see the argument where he would be a sell because it is Deshaun Watson.
44:27And maybe it's just this is going to get nuked.
44:30But he's done it with bad quarterback play all year long.
44:33And he's been the alpha in this Browns passing attack.
44:36So I feel like I want to buy that.
44:39Tate and Coker are tougher. However, again, this is one of these scenarios where I want all these guys because I think
44:45having these talented rookie receivers is always smart. But Tate to me feels like the guy I value the least.
44:51Does that make him the sell? I guess technically, but it also means that I may not get a strong return for
44:57him just because this Titans offense, man. What is the actual ceiling with this offense?
45:01It's just so out of sync. It doesn't look like it really has an identity.
45:06I know Tate popped off two weeks ago and then this last week he totally disappeared.
45:10Right? Right? Because it was a tougher matchup. So that's something to keep in mind.
45:15And Jalen Coker has just been balling out, man.
45:17Like I think the only thing holding Coker back is just injury risk, to be honest.
45:22Because he's been banged up every year of his NFL career.
45:25He's been banged up already this season. So I could see the scenario where you sell Jalen Coker just betting on, hey,
45:31this guy just does not stay healthy. Because he obviously has produced whenever he's been in the lineup.
45:36But I look at the Panther schedule and I'm thinking, man, the Eagles have been one of the worst defenses against slot receivers.
45:43And they're playing Jalen Coker this week in the Carolina Panthers.
45:46And he's just going to go off again. So also coming off an injury off a bye week.
45:51What's his stock like? So I'm not sure I actually came to any conclusions with my buy-sell hold there.
45:57I guess it's going to be buy Denzel, hold Jalen Coker, sell Carnell Tate.
46:01And more of them tell me why I'm wrong because I feel wrong already.
46:05I don't know. I actually really, even though I've had extra time than you on this one, I also have kind of
46:11struggled with this trio, which is why I thought it was a good one.
46:15I feel like it's hard for me to – I think the reason I struggle with this is less my thoughts on these players.
46:22And more I struggle to – I feel like I have my finger on the pulse of what these guys' values are.
46:28We haven't seen Coker in two weeks, but he's been good, but he has an injury history, and he's number two in his offense.
46:35And is Bryce Young going to fall back to earth?
46:38All that stuff. Carnell Tate has the draft pedigree over these guys.
46:42And generally speaking, a top-ten pick at receiver who's getting good usage is a smart buy in his rookie season.
46:47Just that is historically a very smart thing to do.
46:50But this offense might be beyond repair. Cam Ward might be beyond repair even when he has flashes here and there.
46:56Denzel Boston has looked really good, but his offense I think is probably equally going to struggle over the course of the season.
47:03If it's been better than the Titans to date, I don't have confidence it's going to be better the rest of the season.
47:09And even with that, like I do think Denzel Boston is a good player.
47:13I'm not convinced he's a better receiver than Carnell Tate just because he's had a better start to his career.
47:19It's been five weeks. So I really go back and forth on these guys just in terms of what is the actual market value for them?
47:27What are you getting for these guys respectively? I think if I had to give an answer, I would probably come down
47:33on selling Coker because there's multiple ways where it could come – not crashing down, but where the value would lower.
47:39It could be another injury, which he's had in the past.
47:42It could be the fact that he is the number two in his offense and maybe Ted Oroa McMillan coming off of
47:48his awesome game in week four just becomes like the true number one alpha.
47:52And it could come with Bryce Young just had a hot month to start the season and falls back to Earth.
47:58So there's multiple paths to him losing value. He's also ranked highest.
48:02So theoretically, you're getting the most for him. I think I'll sell Coker.
48:06I think I want to hold Tate because I don't know that you're getting a lot for him right now, kind of
48:12like you said, and then buy Boston. So I think that is actually the same answer that you came down on.
48:18After all of that long, winding back-and-forth answer, I think we landed in the same place.
48:22Yeah, the Titans could only wish for a hot month of production like the Carolina Panthers.
48:27They just need one week of production. I think that agreeing on Boston as the buy makes the most sense because I
48:33think it's a little bit of the best of both worlds where you are – again, he wasn't drafted as high as Tate.
48:40But he's still a rookie that has balled out in every game that he's played at the NFL level.
48:45Like that shouldn't go – and he fell to the second round.
48:49But a lot of people view Denzel Boston as a first-round talent.
48:52And I think that he is showing that, no, I should have been a first-round pick and that he shouldn't have fallen to the second round.
49:00So I think the Browns got a steal with Denzel Boston and as the clear-cut alpha in his offense.
49:05The pushback too with Coker and Tate, whereas, yeah, Coker is the number two on his offense.
49:10But if this offense is good, then would you rather – you almost rather have the number two on the Panthers' good
49:16offense versus the number one on the Titans or the Browns where those offenses aren't any good.
49:21So that's like the pushback there. I think Coker is probably – again, injuries aside, he's the guy that you feel the most confident probably starting though, right?
49:29If these are guys – like who's – for week six rankings just for the purpose of our discussion, Jalen Coker is
49:36going to be ranked the highest guy easily. So just kind of put more perspective on how these guys are being valued.
49:42Let's go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks, everybody, for checking out our Buys and Sells, Receivers and Tight Ends show.
49:48Again, if you missed running backs and quarterbacks, that's available on YouTube and wherever you listen to your podcasts.
49:54Best of luck wheeling and dealing here in week six.
49:57For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
50:00Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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50:11Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
50:16What if one bottle could replace the benefits of eight steps in your skincare routine?
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