0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hello everybody, welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
0:05I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Andrew Erickson on this Tuesday morning.
0:08We are talking week 6 buys and sells. This is our running backs and quarterbacks edition of the show.
0:14Part 2 will have our receivers and tight ends.
0:16You can find that on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
0:20Yes, Erickson, let's dive right in because I want to talk about Monday Night Football here.
0:25Puka Nakua, we were just laughing about this before we hit record.
0:2824 targets, absolutely insane. By comparison, and obviously two very different stat lines for these quarterbacks, but by comparison, the most targets
0:35for any player on the Bills was 4. 1 6th the number of Puka's targets for the Rams.
0:40So just a hilarious disparity there between the two passing games.
0:43Really, just in general, right? Like Josh Allen had 19 attempts in this game.
0:47Matthew Stafford 54. Like, just two very different experiences from them.
0:5137-34, the final score in this Monday Night Thriller in overtime.
0:54Lots of overtime games in week 5. Bills obviously coming away.
0:57The winners. Do you feel like you have any takeaways here in terms of, I mean, whether it's fantasy or, you know,
1:03oh, the Bills should now be, I mean, they just beat the Super Bowl favorites based on the betting odds.
1:09Now they should be the favorites. Or do you feel like this is more of a toss up?
1:15Like, what was your main takeaway from these two really highly ranked teams going at each other?
1:20There's a lot to unpack from this game. I think overtime, thriller, the NFL is doing everything in its power to make
1:26sure that I don't get eight hours of sleep every night.
1:29But hey, that's okay. We love football. We love this type of game going back and forth.
1:34There were nine lead changes in this game. So it really was a back and forth contest.
1:39And of course, the Rams special teams are the reason why they don't end up winning here.
1:44And obviously Josh Allen in his life when he was able to do over 120 rushing yards on the ground when the
1:51passing game really wasn't working for Buffalo is absolutely insane.
1:54And then Puka Nakua with the target share that he saw ludicrous, absurd insanity.
1:58I don't know any other way to describe seeing 24 targets.
2:01According to next gen stats, that's the most by player since Brandon Marshall had 28 targets in a game in week 14 of 2009.
2:08And I'm pretty sure that was with the Denver Broncos and I'm pretty sure it was Kyle Orton was his quarterback.
2:14And Orton was just dialing in to Brandon Marshall on every single passing attempt.
2:18I mean, it's absolutely just insane what type of volume he was seeing.
2:22So Puka Nakua seems like he's all the way back after this sports hernia injury.
2:27I know they talked about on the broadcast that's something that he's still dealing with, but clearly it's not inhibiting his ability to score fantasy points.
2:34So Puka Nikul, you are feeling the return on your investment of him as a top five draft pick.
2:40So we're glad to see him healthy back out on the field.
2:43Tyler Higby stepped up again in the absence of Terrence Ferguson.
2:46So he had set a new season high with 83 receiving yards.
2:50The usage for him has kind of been hit or miss though, in terms of been kind of running hot on some of these bigger plays.
2:58Kobe Parkinson was back in the lineup, played 65% of the snaps.
3:01Higby was only running a route on 65% of the drop back.
3:05So that's not elite tight end usage by any way, shape or form, but clearly he has Matthew Stafford's trust, despite the
3:11fact that he only has a 12% target share in the last two games.
3:15So tight end needy teams, Tyler Higby, it seems like he can at least fill in.
3:20He's actually in terms of yardage. If you look at him over the last three weeks, only trails Brock Bowers and Sam
3:26Laborda among tight ends with 212 receiving yards in the last three games for Tyler Higby.
3:31So not necessarily super sustainable in terms of just the volume that he's seeing, but as long as Ferguson is out, I
3:38think that you actually are going to be able to see a decent amount of usage for Higby.
3:43Although you have to kind of keep it in check a little bit because of Puka Nakua.
3:48From the Bills side, Kian Coleman actually did have five targets in this game, but three of them got wiped out due to penalties.
3:55So that was another reason why it was such an underwhelming performance from the Bills pass catchers overall.
4:00Dalton Kincaid, another dud performance from him. And it's funny because we talked about Kincaid.
4:05He was my buy low last week. And I'm thinking, okay, well, Joe Brady came out after the game and said, that's on me.
4:12I'm not getting Kincaid involved enough. Kincaid ran a route on 95% of the Bills dropbacks.
4:16He had one for two for seven yards. He did catch two point conversion, but besides that, the fact that he has
4:23two targets for the second straight week, despite playing 70% or more of the snaps, this is not ideal in any way, shape, or form.
4:30But when I look at how the Bills passing game struggled, doesn't it seem intuitive that they would, okay, let's feature our
4:37tight end that was balling out to start the season when we don't have DJ Moore, but then Kincaid's not getting more targets in the offense.
4:44So I think eventually they're going to right the ship here with Kincaid and get his usage up.
4:50But obviously you're not feeling nearly as good about Kincaid that you did the first couple games of the season, especially with DJ Moore not playing, right?
4:57For him to see only two targets when Moore was totally absent of the offense.
5:02It also goes to the fact of how important DJ Moore is to this passing attack and how it struggled.
5:08And it was really Josh Allen and his legs, James Cook, who did lose a fumble in this game.
5:13Actually fumbled twice in this game. Those are the only reference points I had.
5:17Again, a lot to unpack. If you want everything for this game, it's going to be my beyond the wave wire piece
5:24for week six, where I'll hit on every single angle from all the skill players.
5:28But those are some of my initial reactions after watching a absolute thriller.
5:32And of course, one of my best bets of the week, Bills on the Moneyline, baby.
5:37Josh Allen as an underdog. That was a fun sweat.
5:40You, I mean, lucky is maybe not the right word, but definitely had some moments where maybe it looked like it wasn't going to go that way.
5:48Don Kincaid is tied in nine in the rest of season consensus rankings.
5:51These are just amongst rankers who have updated this since, you know, this week finished last night.
5:56So this is up to date. Does that feel too high, too low, or just right to you?
6:02He's behind guys like Travis Kelsey and Tucker Craft.
6:04He's ahead of Juwan Johnson, Harold Fan, and Colson Loveland.
6:07Obviously such a crazy start. But now three straight weeks where he has been tight end 37 or worse.
6:13I mean, the last three games are two catches for 38 yards, one for seven, one for seven.
6:18It is not getting any better. So where are you at on Kincaid in terms of actually ranking him?
6:24I think he's really tough to rank because of the range of outcomes that he has gone through five games this season.
6:30The usage has not been the problem the last couple weeks.
6:33Like, he's been running the routes. He's been out there.
6:36So it's not been a problem of him not playing enough snaps, which is usually what the issue is.
6:42It's just that he's not getting targeted by Josh Allen.
6:45So I don't have an exact rhyme or reason why that is the case here.
6:49But going back to what I said, Bill's passing game was not good against the Rams.
6:54They didn't get Dalton Kincaid involved. They lost to the Patriots the week before.
6:58They didn't get Dalton Kincaid involved. To me, it seems like, okay, so to improve the passing game, let's get Dalton Kincaid involved.
7:05But through two weeks, that has not been how the Bills led by Joe Brady have seen what they need to do.
7:11So let's jump into our buys and sells here, Erickson.
7:14Running backs to buy is where we're going to start on this one.
7:18I'll let you go first. Who is your running back to buy?
7:22Jeremiah Love, running back for the Arizona Cardinals. I think that he is a player I just really wanted to bring on
7:28here to discuss because I think that he's extremely polarizing.
7:31And I could see arguments to sell, to buy, to hold, to do a lot of different things with Jeremiah Love.
7:37And I know for a fact I'm going to get a billion questions about Jeremiah Love.
7:42So I wanted to unpack it a little bit here with you, Warren, and kind of see your read on Love's situation
7:48in Arizona and see if we can come eye to eye with the best approach for fantasy managers.
7:54So last week, still had 13 of the 19 running back opportunities for Arizona, 68%.
7:58That was actually up from the week prior, which was at 60%.
8:02And Tyler Auger actually had a season low in terms of how much usage he got.
8:06He only had five opportunities in this last game.
8:09So although Love was disappointing, played 49% of the snaps, carried the ball 12 times for 22 yards, 1.8 yards per carry,
8:15had zero touches after 14 minutes were left in the game, and he had one target, 2% target share.
8:21He has two catches for negative, or he's one catch for negative eight yards.
8:25And the last two games for Jeremiah Love, who, when he was coming out of Notre Dame, this was one of the
8:32strong parts of his game and his projection. And this Cardinals offensively, they're going to be down a ton, and he's going
8:38to catch a dump off passes from Jacoby Brissett.
8:41Well, this was like the perfect game script for that, and he's not even on the field because of this maintenance workload
8:47thing that I keep talking about with Jeremiah Love.
8:50So we hit super highs with Love a couple weeks ago when it fully looked like he had taken over the backfield,
8:56and that has not really been the case as much the last two weeks, although he has actually had the advantage in terms of our opportunities.
9:04He's averaged 14 opportunities per game the last two games, where Algier is at 7.5 with his smallest workload coming this past week.
9:11So you have environmental concerns with Jeremiah Love and the Arizona Cardinals.
9:14There are rumblings that Carson Beck could become the quarterback sooner rather than later, or at least be the backup for the next couple weeks.
9:21You have offensive line injuries that are piling up for the Arizona Cardinals.
9:25But I go back to the process in terms of when do these top-end rookie running backs hit their stride in the second half of their rookie seasons?
9:33We see this all the time. It's happened to all the biggest names.
9:37B.J. Robinson when he was a rookie. Jameer Gibbs when he was a rookie.
9:41They are clawing their way to earn a larger portion of their team's offense, and Love is still doing that, right?
9:48Tyler Algier necessarily hasn't been the biggest problem now.
9:50The fact that he plays on third downs takes away Love as a potential receiver out of the backfield.
9:56But I'm just going back to the simple fact that you want to buy these rookie running backs for the second half
10:02run, because that's when you see them be their most productive and turn out top 12 type of fantasy season.
10:08When you get drafted where Love gets drafted, I think it was 78% of these guys become fantasy RB1s in their first season.
10:15So Algier has that draft capital attached to him.
10:18He has the talent, in my opinion. But lackluster the last couple weeks.
10:21Running backs to buy, it's tough right now. There really weren't anyone that really stood out to me, and that's why Love
10:28was kind of a force pick here, but someone I wanted to talk about.
10:32Because if you just talk about the talent, I think that he does make a case where, hey, the stock is rock
10:38bottom right now, where you can go for a player like Love when we know that the upside could be pretty immense
10:45if he takes on a larger role, especially as a receiver in the second half of the season.
10:50And people are panicked, too, despite the fact that he actually has dominated the opportunities the last three games over Tyler Algier.
10:57So it's really about price for me than anything else with Jeremiah Love, because I know that there are a lot of
11:03managers that are looking to wipe their hands clean of him.
11:06When I think that maybe if you can buy him cheap enough, I actually think it's a worthwhile investment.
11:12I tend to agree. He's RB17 in the consensus rest of season rankings.
11:16It's dropped a couple of spots since the games on Sunday.
11:19And that feels a touch low to me. It doesn't feel like egregiously low, but it feels like I think that should
11:25be – I think he should be inside the top 15, even if he's not inside the top 12.
11:31And, you know, the names around him, to your point about it being tough to pick running backs to buy this week.
11:37Like, first of all, when I was putting together my names for the sheet, like, it was the last one I picked,
11:44because I just could not think of anything. I mean, I had – there's options.
11:48But who do you want to, like, pound the table for?
11:51I can only talk about Jordan Mason so many times.
11:54It's hard to come on here and be, like, just enthusiastically you have to go buy this guy at the running back
12:01position right now because everybody feels either appropriately valued and is going to be really expensive or, like, I don't really want
12:07to be making a case for this guy. So I think Love is a totally reasonable option here.
12:13And, again, I think he's a little undervalued in the rankings.
12:16I – you know, when you have, like, an ankle sprain like he had in August, rookies have to learn so much
12:22when they're coming to the NFL level. Even a position like running back where it's theoretically easier to translate than others.
12:28And I don't ever want to be the guy who misses out on this consensus most talented guy in the draft just
12:35because it was a bit of a slower start while he was, A, working back physically, and, B, working into the mental
12:41NFL game for the first time ever while trying to rehab this injury as well.
12:46So I think on principle it is a smart buy of Jeremiah Love, but it's more on principle than it is on,
12:52oh, watching these games, I think he's on the precipice of a breakout.
12:56It is a process-driven buy, which I am on board with, particularly given the nature of the position, more so than a,
13:03oh, wow, the underlying metrics are showing this guy's ready to explode, if that distinction makes sense.
13:08No, I think that you outlined that pretty perfectly.
13:10There's a reason why people are freaking out about Jeremiah Love, because he hasn't been that good overall throughout the entire season.
13:17The Cardinals are a scary offense to be invested in because of the things I mentioned.
13:21Offensive line injuries. Does Carson Beck take over as the starting quarterback?
13:25The fact that Love is not playing in the fourth quarter of these blowout games, which was part of the thesis behind,
13:31oh, he's going to catch all these dump-off passes, it's going to be absolutely great.
13:36But I think that's the buying window that's being opened for Jeremiah Love, and that you're betting on, we've seen this before,
13:42top five, rookie running back, starts the season out kind of sluggish, not the greatest, and then he breaks out in the second half of the season.
13:50So I just think right now he is attainable, and he was always a player that I was not high on Jeremiah
13:57Love in terms of his draft stock, in terms of his price in fantasy drafts this year.
14:02Redraft, you mean, right? Yeah, and redraft. Yes. But he was always someone that I would keep in the back of my
14:08mind, okay, there's going to be an opportunity to want to buy Jeremiah Love at some point, and I want to strike
14:14when his stock is hit pretty badly, and after his two worst games of the season, I think this is an appropriate
14:21time to go after him, and even get him on your bench as an RB3, a flex play, where you don't even
14:27have to necessarily be reliant on starting him. I think that he is a sharp buy low for the long-term outlook the rest of the season.
14:35Let's go to my running back to buy. I'm actually going even higher than the rankings than you did.
14:41I'm going with a buy high here, and that's Jalen Warren.
14:44You, me, and Debro talked about Jalen Warren on the tailgate earlier this week, with Debro mainly being the guy coming on
14:50to that show, and his takeaway from the week is that Jalen Warren is the most underrated running back in the NFL.
14:57And one of the things I said to Debro is it's a really great call because it's one of those examples of
15:03a discussion point that I had never really sat down and said, oh, who is this for me?
15:09I think it's Jalen Warren. But as soon as Debro said it out loud, I go, yep, right, 100%, you nailed it.
15:15Like, I do think that Jalen Warren has a really strong case as the most underrated running back in the NFL.
15:21And you look, obviously, you know, this season he has been a mix of floor and ceiling in the five games this season.
15:28He's finished. This is in half PPR scoring. Actually, I'm looking at, sorry, full PPR scoring.
15:33He's been RB25, RB26, RB8, RB22, RB2. So, like, the worst game there is RB26, which is still totally usable, but the
15:39best games have been inside the top eight at the position.
15:42Obviously, he was insane in week five against the Colts.
15:45A lot of running backs have done that against the Colts.
15:48I think he's a really good player, and he's still outside the top 12 in rest-of-season rankings.
15:53And that's why I wanted to pick him. If he had been, like, RB9 in the rest-of-season, I think Debro has him, like, 8 or 9.
16:01Like, then I would say, okay, now he's getting up there, and it's going to get pretty costly if this is how his manager is valuing him.
16:09Outside the top 12, I think if you can get a manager who's willing to accept the price of a running back
16:1513 or 14 on the season, I think you're getting a guy who's going to be inside the top 12 the rest of the way.
16:23I don't think Rico Dowdle is going to eat into this workload with how good Jalen Warren has looked.
16:28By the way, just to throw out the numbers, it was 15 carries, 101 yards, and a touchdown.
16:34Also, six catches on six targets for 87 yards and a touchdown in that week five game.
16:39Clearly his best game of the season. The Steelers' offense also has just been better than I expected it to be.
16:45Now, that could change. That's in the back of my mind of, like, Aaron Rodgers, when it gets colder, he's older, and
16:51does this start to maybe start to fall apart a little bit later in the season?
16:56Right now, it's working, and I think Jalen Warren is a big part of that.
17:00I think he's legitimately really talented and deserves to be ranked inside the top 12, or at least valued as a top
17:0712 running back rest of the season. That's not where he is in the rankings.
17:11Therefore, I'm willing to spend up and go get him.
17:14If you have a needed running back, I would give up a quality receiver or, you know, multiple quality depth pieces or
17:21whatever it would take to go get him. I think it's worth spending up because I don't think this is going away.
17:27He's not going to be RB2 the rest of the season like he was this week, but I think he's going to
17:34be very, very good and make his managers happy, even if they spent, you know, a little above market value to get him.
17:40I couldn't agree more. I think that he is a very good buy-high type of running back because there's a window to
17:47get him because of the return of Rico Dowdle.
17:49Kind of looming, right? It just opens at a crease.
17:52We talked about this last week with Zay Flowers where Tyler Huntley, he's the quarterback, so there's a little crease of you
17:59can buy this potential player, even though he's coming off a monster performance.
18:03It's expectation for me, at least, and reading what the coaches have talked about is that Rico Dowdle is expected to return next week.
18:10But I thought it was pretty interesting what Mike McCarthy actually said after the Colts game about Jalen Warren and about Rico
18:16Dowdle and how he thought, yeah, heading into the season, we wanted a one-two punch between Dowdle and Jalen Warren, but he
18:23almost had to stop himself and say, well, Jalen's crushing it right now.
18:26So, although that's what we thought we were going to do entering the season, he has kind of changed our perspective on
18:33how we actually should approach this backfield. And this comes as no surprise from Rico Dowdle where he's been part of backfields
18:39like this, where Juba Hubbard was the guy in Carolina last year.
18:43Rico Dowdle came in and absolutely smashed and he took his job.
18:46So, Dowdle knows that the best player and the best running back gets the rock and ends up being the bell cow for their respective offenses.
18:54So, I think that's going to be the case here.
18:57And that's not always how it is with a lot of these backfields.
19:01It changes because you have different coaches that are calling the plays and dictating who gets the football.
19:06Right now, it's working so well with Jalen Warren, for Mike McCarthy in this offense, with Aaron Rodgers.
19:11That's who's going to be on the field the majority of the time.
19:15So, I'm not overly concerned about the Dowdle return.
19:18And I think that's the only reason why Jalen Warren isn't a consensus top-12 running back because rankers are trying to account
19:24for, well, what happens if Rico Dowdle does come back and has an impact on Jalen Warren?
19:29I think Jalen Warren has also shown the efficiency that Debro listed off in our tailgate episode, that even if the backfield
19:36morphs into a 60-40 or 70-30 split and Warren's not seeing 95% of the snaps, he'll be fine.
19:41He'll probably be more than fine because he's going to remain really, really efficient and use as a receiver out of the backfield, see goal line opportunities.
19:49So, I think that this is a really good buy high that you listed off for him.
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20:29By Monday night, the advice is in, your lineups are locked, and all you can do is watch.
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21:56I'm gonna hit you with an impromptu running back trio by seller hold.
22:00These are not names that we are, I'm not moving them up from later in the show, it's just I'm looking at
22:07the rankings right now and I think it's a good one.
22:10I'm not moving them up from later in the show.
22:13Like every week this season, he's already had his buy, so you don't have to worry about a buy week coming up with him.
22:20I mean, I guess maybe you sell Basial too, and then I guess he has more quote-unquote to prove than Chuba Hubbard does.
22:27I want to be buying all three guys, to be clear.
22:30I think all three are actually worth buys at their current price.
22:33We've talked about Tootin a lot on this show, which is why I didn't want to pick him.
22:39Do you get more for Tootin than Hubbard? I guess that would probably be my decision.
22:43I would assume that because Hubbard was so cheap in draft season that you may not net as high a return, whereas
22:50Tootin was looked at as a projected breakout candidate.
22:52That almost makes me think that maybe Hubbard should be the buy if that is sort of weighed in at all.
22:59And again, him and Aaron having the buy week is super helpful.
23:02That is not nothing to have one more game than these guys going forward, at least.
23:07That makes sense. Yeah, but I think all three are strong pieces to have for running backs for the rest of the season.
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23:49Erickson, who is your running back to sell? Aaron Jones, running back for the Minnesota Vikings.
23:54We couldn't put Jordan Mason on the show again as a buy.
23:58So I'm naturally, I'm just going to go in the other direction and just say to sell Aaron Jones because you want to buy Jordan Mason.
24:05I think this is different than the Steelers backbuild scenario where Rico Dowdle coming back.
24:10How's that impact? Jibble Warren. I don't think it's going to really move the needle that much.
24:15I feel very differently about this backfield with the Minnesota Vikings because Kevin O'Connell, again, shout out to the Coach Speak Index.
24:21Greg Branos does an absolute great job of breaking down all these press conferences.
24:25Talking about Kevin O'Connell and how he's continually double downing on Jordan Mason, like having a big role in this offense when
24:32he comes back from the bye week. Minnesota is off in week six, but then they're going to face the Indianapolis Colts in week seven at home.
24:40A run defense that just got gashed by Jalen Warren.
24:43And I'm expecting Jordan Mason to be the lead ball carrier because Aaron Jones at this point cannot keep this up.
24:49He's coming off a career high in touches last week with 28.
24:52He has 109 touches this season. That ranks sixth highest in the NFL.
24:56He's on pace for 370 touches this year. He had 300 touches one time in his entire NFL career.
25:02As an older running back, this is just not sustainable.
25:05And I think that it's been perfect for those that were invested in Aaron Jones, that you've had him for this window
25:11of opportunity where the Vikings have no other running back to turn to due to the injury to Mason.
25:17But reminder, it's a thumb injury to Jordan Mason.
25:19This is not a soft tissue shoulder injury or anything like that where, oh, we're really concerned about him getting banged up again or re-injuring it.
25:27I think that Jordan Mason is going to be locked and loaded and ready to go.
25:32And that's what all the coaches have been talking about, that he is going to be a major part of this offense.
25:38And that's just going to really reduce the impact that Aaron Jones has just given he's been so volume dependent over the last couple of games.
25:46That's why he's been so effective for fantasy football purposes.
25:49First of all, let's not diminish the severity of thumb injuries.
25:52I was just telling you how I really badly hurt my thumb last night playing slow pitch softball.
25:57And it is like killing me to the point where I'm like, I think I might need to go to a doctor.
26:04So I'm not an NFL running back, but thumb injuries can be quite painful and limiting.
26:08No, but more seriously, like I honestly don't have that much to add because I just totally agree.
26:14And I think this is like a really almost like too obvious of a call, right?
26:18Like the workload feels unsustainable. A, for when Mason comes back and B, just add Aaron Jones's age.
26:24Like if Mason was out for the year, I would still think Aaron Jones is probably a good sell because it's just
26:30hard to imagine a guy who has been banged up in previous years, who is 31 years old.
26:35I mean, he's had 23 carries, 17, 20 and 25 in the last four weeks.
26:40And that's not even including that. He's also had like 17 targets across those games as well.
26:45Like this is a lot of touches for a guy at this stage in his career.
26:49And he's been good, but like it is hard to imagine that it's going to – it's certainly not going to get
26:56any better than this it feels like. And I think it's very likely to get worse.
27:01The real question for me is what are you actually getting for Aaron Jones right now?
27:05Like to what degree do you think his trade value is reflective of what he's done versus is it reflective of managers
27:12already being aware of this conversation we're having? He's ranked as RB22 in the consensus rest of season rankings, which is obviously
27:18very low relative to what his production has been.
27:21So the experts are already starting to hedge against Mason coming back and the workload changing.
27:26For you, what seems like a good value in trying to sell him?
27:29Like what are you willing to take back? Jordan Mason, right?
27:33I think that this backfield is going to flip.
27:35And I think that Mason's going to take over as the lead guy, especially as he gets back in week seven against the Colts.
27:42And I think when we're having this conversation heading into week eight, it's who took over the backfield for the Minnesota Vikings and Jordan Mason.
27:50Maybe it was him. That's what I'm thinking. That's what I'm banking on happening.
27:54So I think that this is a trade that you can definitely get done because there'll be some hesitation by the Aaron
28:00Jones manager or excuse me, the Jordan Mason manager about, well, Aaron Jones has been really good.
28:05Like maybe it takes a little bit of time for Mason to get reacclimated as the RB1.
28:10I mean, draft season, who was being drafted first?
28:13Was Jordan Mason or Aaron Jones? Pretty sure it was Jordan Mason because he looked like he was going to be the lead ball carrier.
28:20The fact that he has no wear on his tires so far to start this season.
28:25I think that they're going to unleash Jordan Mason and keep Aaron Jones in his complimentary role that makes him more available
28:31for the entirety of the 17 game season. So I think it's a scenario too where you get Jordan Mason probably plus a throw in, right?
28:39Because of how good the Aaron Jones production has been.
28:42So that's what I would do. And I didn't want to put Jordan Mason on as a buy again, but I feel like he is right now.
28:50The Vikings are on a buy week. I mean, he's on waiver wires floating around a little bit too.
28:55So I think this is the time to strike.
28:58This is your last chance, I think, to get Mason before this backfield potentially shifts heavily in his favor.
29:04My running back to sell is Woody Marks. He's RB31 in consensus rankings.
29:07That's jumped up quite a bit, obviously, with David Montgomery having the groin injury and being week to week out for a few weeks there.
29:15And it has been reported, you know, that Woody Marks will carry the load for the Texans with Montgomery out.
29:21But, man, I look at the player. I look at the offense.
29:24I look at the schedule. And I just feel like this is a very classic case of sell while there's still optimism
29:31of the new starter stepping into the role. And we see this, it feels like, every year where somebody gets this new opportunity.
29:37And as it turns out with hindsight, that was the selling window, was before they had actually been the starter here.
29:44Now, Marks was productive in ways last year. I'm not saying that he is a total dud who can't help your team.
29:50But I feel like the value is probably only going to go down.
29:54This is not an offense that is running the ball well.
29:57And I don't think Woody Marks fixes that. I think Woody Marks is the type of player who can maybe be productive if everything around him is working.
30:05If the offensive line is struggling, if the play calls are not doing him any favors in terms of running the ball.
30:12Like, David Montgomery looked really bad the last few weeks.
30:15And I'm not convinced that Woody Marks is going to look all that much better.
30:19Like, just because he's getting the opportunity due to injury.
30:22Like, they could have been starting Woody Marks and giving him more work.
30:26But they weren't. They thought David Montgomery was the better option, even though Montgomery was doing nothing outside of Week 1 this season.
30:33And then the schedule. The next game they have is not only in London.
30:37It's against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are excellent against the run and a rush defense to be feared, generally speaking, in fantasy.
30:43Then he gets the Giants. But then he has the bye week.
30:47So we're talking about this groin injury for Montgomery as a week-to-week injury.
30:50Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that it's a three-week injury.
30:54Two of the three weeks that Woody Marks is, you know, presumably the starter, he gets the Jags or his team's on bye.
31:01So there's, like, one game in here that I think you would be, like, overly interested in starting Woody Marks in the next three weeks.
31:08And if Montgomery's, you know, injury lingers beyond that, maybe you start to feel a little differently.
31:13But it's not a very favorable schedule for fantasy managers.
31:16I don't know that he's just that good of a player.
31:20And the rushing attack in this offense is not working.
31:22And this is an offense that just traded for a receiver.
31:26So I wouldn't be surprised if they say, hey, listen, CJ Stroud's playing really well.
31:30Our defense isn't as good as we thought. But let's lean into throwing the ball even more and just don't even bother
31:37with the running game quite as much. So for all of those reasons, I just feel like – I'm not saying Marks is going to be terrible.
31:45But I just feel like this is kind of a clear, like, strike while the iron's hot and sell while there's a
31:51manager in your league who is excited about the new starting running back, at least for a few weeks of the Houston Texans.
31:58What do you think, Erickson? I think that the process always suggests that when a player gains a lot of value from
32:04doing something that's not football-related, it usually makes sense to take advantage of that.
32:08Right? He's getting a boost because he has this newfound opportunity, right, where he's going to be the workhorse bell cow for a running game like you outlined.
32:17Not really excited about this season. And Woody Marks, despite what he did at the college level, has never really been unleashed as a receiver.
32:24And in this role last year, when he was kind of miscast as a bell cow running back, he struggled immensely.
32:30And although I think at times he actually has looked way better than David Montgomery, I think Woody Marks just has more
32:36juice than David Montgomery at this point. Montgomery a little bit of an older running back.
32:41Just a lot of touches on his resume. Woody Marks, we'll see.
32:45I mean, this is a really tough matchup this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
32:49Let me pose this question to you. Woody Marks or Aaron Jones?
32:52In terms of who I'd rather have rest of season or?
32:56Yeah. I mean, right now, Aaron Jones, okay, right, because Aaron Jones is on a bye week this week.
33:01So he definitely can't help you this week. Whereas if you need a running back production right now, are you willing to
33:08get rid of Jones because you know, okay, I know Mason's coming back.
33:11And I know that this is going to tail off.
33:14Whereas at least with Woody Marks, you can play him this week in a volume role.
33:19You can play him next week against the Giants.
33:22And that should be a good matchup. And then by the time we get back to also, is David Montgomery a lock to get his starting job back?
33:30I mean, he was not playing very well. And if Marks plays decent, I mean, I think that this is going to
33:36be a 50-50 committee or 60-40 in favor of Woody Marks.
33:40I mean, we were talking about Dave Montgomery's a sell every single show this year, right?
33:44We should have been more declarative about it after week one and he scored three touchdowns, but we weren't.
33:50I would rather have Aaron Jones for the next month than Woody Marks for the next month.
33:55I think when you're thinking long-term, the question is if you think Woody Marks holds on to the starting job.
34:01Because if you do believe that, then I do think you should prefer Marks' rest of season.
34:06But if you don't believe that, then – because Aaron Jones coming out of the bye, they get the Colts, the Lions, the Bills, and the Packers.
34:14Those are four very gettable run defenses and just defenses in general that – I know the Vikings' offense hasn't been great.
34:20But if their defense keeps playing well, it's going to be hard against the Lions and the Bills.
34:25But if the defense keeps playing well and there are opportunities for running backs to get carries even with Jordan Mason back,
34:32I like that better than Woody Marks in the next month having the Jags and a bye week and the question mark of when David Montgomery's returning.
34:40So I prefer Jones in the short term. Whether or not you prefer him in the long term is dependent on if
34:46you believe Marks holds on to the starting job when Montgomery comes back or not, in my opinion.
34:52Let's go to the quarterback here, Erickson. Are you doing a bye or a sell this week?
34:57I am doing a sell for Washington Commanders quarterback, Jayden Daniels.
35:00I am running to the hills, I think, with Daniels' rest of season.
35:04So coming off his return last week, monster rushing game for Jayden Daniels.
35:07Just electric as a scrambler. There was no hesitation with him coming off the elbow injury.
35:12And I don't even know why I question this anymore because this happens every single time these mobile quarterbacks come back.
35:18It's like, no, because when the Bullets are fine, they just do what they do and they just run.
35:24Like, Jayden Daniels isn't dropping back in the pocket thinking about, well, you know, my elbow's kind of banged up.
35:30Like, I probably don't want to scramble here when I see, like, this, like, path opening up for me to pick up 30 yards.
35:37They're just going to do it. And that concerns me about his longevity in this offense and for a Commanders team that,
35:43correct me if I'm wrong, Worm, but is this Dan Quinn's last game, potentially, as the head coach of this team?
35:49If they go to the 49ers and get curb stomped on the road on Monday Night Football, they got a Week 7 bye week.
35:56Seems like, to me, like, this could be a logical spot where, like, we're changing things up.
36:01We're going to make David Blau. The interim, I don't know what they would do.
36:06It would be Durante Jones, maybe the DC that make the interim head coach, regardless.
36:10Yeah, I was going to say, I don't feel like they really have an obvious interim on the coaching staff.
36:16Because they got rid of Kingsbury last year. Yeah.
36:19So, it's, I just have a lot of concerns about the Commanders team overall for the rest of the season.
36:25Again, when you're the first team to fire their head coach, it's usually not because the vibes are good.
36:30It means the vibes are bad. And I don't want to attach myself to those types of teams, especially with, okay, the losses keep piling up.
36:38Do they shut Jayden Daniels down? Do they say, no, you need to get surgery on your elbow because we need to
36:44make this not a problem that resurfaces? You look at the matchup against the 49ers.
36:49We talked about this on a tailgate show a couple weeks ago with Welsh because he's the 49ers fan here at Fantasy Pros.
36:55Watches them very, very closely. Fred Warner is a quarterback eraser when it comes to mobility.
37:00The guy can spy the most mobile quarterbacks. I think it's really interesting that Malik Willis' worst rushing yards game came against the 49ers.
37:07Malik Willis had six rushing yards in his game against San Francisco.
37:11We just saw him last week running absolutely wild.
37:13He's a quarterback that wants to run and he could not run at all against his 49ers defense with Fred Warner back.
37:20Bo Nix also had 10 rushing yards. So again, they haven't faced all mobile quarterbacks, but 49ers second fewest rushing yards per game allowed to QB.
37:27So if Jayden Daniels doesn't have the mobility this week, I think that's going to potentially make him overvalued heading into a
37:34matchup against commanders that have been really good on defense.
37:37Concerned about the season going down the toilet for the Washington commanders.
37:40And then we also got a report from Schefter that was talking about how there are NFL doctors who reportedly believe another
37:47dislocation could occur if Daniels keeps playing. And not that it's a if or it's not a matter of if he's going to get re-injured.
37:54It's a matter of when he's going to get re-injured with his elbow injury.
37:58He took five sacks last week. Every time he gets sacked, I'm going to be looking at his elbow and think, is
38:05he going to get up from this? Is he going to get banged up again?
38:09It's really, really concerning. So I think with him just coming off such a monster game, this is the time to wipe
38:16your hands clean of Jayden Daniels because he just feels like a ticking time bomb that we did this last year too, right?
38:22He came back, played a couple games, was good, and then got hurt again.
38:26So that for me is why he's a quarterback to sell.
38:30Again, it's not always easy to trade quarterbacks in fantasy.
38:33But if I can package Jane Daniels, because again, you missed him for a couple weeks, so clearly you were doing something else with your lineup at quarterback.
38:41I would rather package him with another running back or receiver, upgrade and solidify that spot, and then stream the position.
38:47I hate being nervous about a re-injury. It's like not a fun feel.
38:51I want to just root for Jane Daniels because he's such a good, fun player to watch.
38:56But I totally, it's, and for a very different reason, it's very similar for me to watching Tua in that every time
39:02he gets hit, I kind of curl my toes a little.
39:06Like, ugh, is this going to be a concussion here?
39:08And every time Jane Daniels gets tackled until he gets the surgery that seems inevitable, I'm going to be kind of nervous
39:15when he reaches his hand out that he's going to have this horrible, ugly elbow injury again.
39:20And I'm not even saying that that's like a fair thing for me to be nervous about or not.
39:26It's just the way I feel watching him. And that, I think, highlights why he's probably a smart sell.
39:31Even if you were a believer in what's going on in the offense and in Washington, and that Dan Quinn's going to
39:38be the coach for the next decade, even if you felt that way, I would be interested in selling Daniels with the
39:44injury risk stuff the rest of the season. Then you get into sort of the Dan Quinn of it all.
39:50And like, to your point, struggling against a Fred Warner defense likelihood in week six and then week seven bye.
39:56So you're probably not getting great performances out of him the next two weeks.
40:00I was looking at the coaching staff while you were talking, and I'm like, Anthony Lynn is the running backs coach.
40:06So as interim head coach, I'm like looking at who else could even be.
40:10I don't see any, unless I'm totally forgetting somebody, I don't see anybody on this team who has head coaching experience.
40:16I mean, sometimes just somebody random, like Larry Izzo is a special teams coordinator.
40:20Like, this guy looks like he could be an interim head coach, just his face.
40:25But, I mean, it's not an obvious one here.
40:27So, like, Anthony Lynn is really the only one that stood out.
40:31But at any rate, I'm totally with you. Like, I think the timing makes a lot of sense for this possibly being Dan Quinn's last game.
40:39There's a lot of frustration in Washington. I know from all of my friends that still live there about, you know, the
40:45end of that game against the Giants this week.
40:48And I'm not saying it's 100% Dan Quinn's fault, but at the end of the day, that falls on the head coach,
40:54the botch at the end of overtime. So I think this is a great shout.
40:59And to me, the only question is, are you in a league where you can move a quarterback?
41:04Because if you're not, then it might not be helpful.
41:07But if you are in the type of league where a quarterback is movable based on somebody else's injuries or they're just
41:13overvalued in that league or whatever, then I think you should be looking to sell.
41:18Yeah, that's why I would go with the package approach where you put him with another running back or receiver.
41:24You go to the team that has a struggling quarterback that doesn't have a solidified stud in their QB one slot.
41:30And you just showcase the Jane Daniels rushing production from last week and you just ship them off because the vibes around this team are not good.
41:38I think I've talked about commanders player as a cell McLaurin hamstring injury digs hamstring injury offensive line is still not good.
41:44All the reasons why I was concerned about Daniels entering the season kind of coming to fruition a little bit here.
41:50And because he's coming off such a big game, I think that this is the time to ship them off.
41:56Let's do some buy seller holds. Eric said I've got two trios for you can move a little quickly through these at running back.
42:03Cam Scadaboo, O'Marion Hampton, Tony Pollard against Scadaboo Hampton and Pollard.
42:06Again, this is not a ranking. It is just a sort of market assessment.
42:11One buy, one sell, one hold. Scadaboo's at RB20.
42:13Hampton RB24. Pollard at RB26. I think that I'll probably buy Cam Scadaboo.
42:17Just I feel the best about the overall outlook for the Giants team versus some of these other teams that play on
42:23teams that don't have any wins, right? Like it's not helpful to buy running backs on teams that don't win games because
42:30so much of running back production is tied to positive game script.
42:33Which at least the Giants, hey, yeah, I know Scadaboo fumbled last week, but Najee Harris has also fumbled and he has
42:40not been punished in any way, shape or form.
42:43So I don't think that Harbaugh is going to go away from Scadaboo as the engine to this ground attack.
42:48So I will buy him, especially if there's a little bit of dip on his price tag because coming off a game where he did lose a fumble.
42:57Hampton, I guess, would be like my – can you sell something?
43:00Can you sell Hampton for anything at this point?
43:03Like I guess I don't know. He was the first name I wrote down because I wanted you to pick like what to do with Hampton.
43:10Obviously, we've talked about him a number of occasions on this show, but it just – it keeps getting worse.
43:16You're totally right. It gets worse every week. The schedule continues to get terrible.
43:20So, yeah, I mean like last week, what, it was Vidal that had the most snaps or the most opportunities in that backfield.
43:27When he had the great rushing touchdown. Oh, yeah, Vidal had the great rushing touchdown.
43:32Regardless, the snaps, the touches, it's all a total mess.
43:35And Hampton was the least efficient of the two guys last week.
43:38And every time I watch the Chargers, it just – Hampton looks like a fish out of water when it comes to this Mike McDaniel offense.
43:46He looks like the odd man out even though McDaniel has talked about him.
43:50He's still the starter. It's a three-headed committee on a bad offense.
43:53And that's just not a recipe for success any way, shape, or form.
43:57So, Hampton is going to be the sell. And then Pollard because everyone's talking about how he's going to get traded, right?
44:04So, if he goes to a team that needs a running back, a better offense, it can't be – I mean, unless
44:10Tony Pollard gets traded to the Chargers, I don't see how he can't leave Tennessee and get an upgraded situation because he's
44:17definitely going to get dealt at some point as a veteran running back on expired contract.
44:21I don't know how much juice Pollard has left.
44:24I think that he's had okay opportunities, and he's looked okay at times this year.
44:28But it's also within the context of he's on the Titans offense, right?
44:32So, how good is he actually versus – is it just the offense that's holding him back?
44:37But I think Pollard is just at least worth holding on to because he could get dealt.
44:42We're seeing trades go down every single week now.
44:45So – and Pollard was on that list that Schefter dropped alongside Marvin Harrison Jr., and obviously we saw Harrison get traded.
44:51Scadaboo has finished between RB17 and RB36 in every week this season.
44:55He has been in RB2 or an RB3 in every game.
44:58So, there's a level of floor there, but there really hasn't been any ceiling on Scadaboo.
45:03So, one more trio here, Erickson, RJ Harvey, Ollie Gordon, and Woody Marks.
45:06So, we obviously already talked about, but I wanted to include him.
45:10I thought he was a good fit next to these names.
45:13RJ Harvey, Ollie Gordon, Woody Marks. I think RJ Harvey would probably be my buy.
45:18I know that he's coming off his worst game or least involved game.
45:21But before last week, he was so heavily involved in the passing game for the Denver Broncos.
45:26Now, it was also the first game that Sean Payton was calling plays.
45:30So, maybe that was the big thing that totally changed.
45:33All I know is that whatever J.K. Dobbins is doing is not built to last.
45:38Yeah, but Harvey, I will say, sorry to interrupt, like he was getting a lot of work in the passing game to
45:44end last season when Sean Payton was calling plays.
45:47So, you would think that Payton thinks of him as a pass catcher.
45:50Yeah, I think it's really just like a one-game blip.
45:53Besides, it's not like the Broncos' office was good.
45:56So, even though they brought Sean Payton back, the play calling was not necessarily conducive.
46:00Oh, well, now the Broncos' office is exploding. They had all the same issues, right, that they did beforehand.
46:06Except, you know, second-half comebacks, couldn't do anything in the first half of the game.
46:10So, I think that Harvey's target share will bounce back in a big way just because of how heavily involved he's been in.
46:17The younger player, second-year running back. They like using him around the red zone.
46:21So, he would be my buy. Gordon and Marks are tougher.
46:25However, I think that you could make the argument that both of them are sells based on, oh, well, they're projected bell cows.
46:31But, I mean, at least Oli Gordon for the last three weeks, man, like, he's delivered.
46:36Every single opportunity, he's delivered. And he's on the Dolphins that we know is not a good offense.
46:41But he has really cemented himself as the RB1.
46:44They did give opportunities to Jalen Wright to win back the RB2 job behind Devon HN.
46:49And Oli Gordon's kind of dusted him the last couple games.
46:52So, I think that Gordon probably is also cheaper than Woody Marks.
46:55I think you could probably get more for Woody Marks now because he plays at least an offense that you can kind of paint the picture of.
47:03Okay, Texans offense, like, maybe not a great ground game, but he's going to get so much work.
47:09And CJ Stroud has been playing well that I think that I would agree with you.
47:13Woody Marks, you can probably get more for. So, he would be my sell.
47:17And then I would just do, I would hold on to Oli Gordon and be like, hey, man, like, he's a, he was free.
47:24And he's been productive. He plays on the Dolphins.
47:27It's not great. But that's been the case in the last three weeks.
47:31And he's been able to produce. I think I'd rather, I'm with you on selling Marks, obviously.
47:36I think I want to hold Harvey and buy Oli Gordon.
47:39I mean, he has produced. He has the buy this week.
47:42But then coming out of the buy, Jets, Patriots, Lions, Colts, Bills, Jets again, Broncos, Bears, Packers.
47:47Week 17 is the bill. Like, there, again, the Dolphins offense is not good.
47:51But there are some offenses that you can get in his schedule.
47:55So, are you saying that Oli Gordon should have been our running back to buy?
47:59I'm now thinking about it as maybe I regret.
48:02I mean, no. I know. This is why we come to these conclusions, right?
48:06Yes. You throw in the other names. You come up with other.
48:10Because, again, it's not. He's my running back to buy in this trio.
48:13And that's enough, right? That's, that's. We're calling him a buy.
48:17That's good enough. Hey, man. The running back streets are dry right now.
48:21Yes. In terms of trying to find running back production.
48:23So, Oli Gordon, especially on a buy week, I think that raises an interesting angle on, hey, he's been productive.
48:29There's a chance not coming back. I mean, a lot of these running backs, right, are on expired contracts, right?
48:35It seems like, well, Aaron Jones, we're worried about, like, what's his production going to look like?
48:40Oli Gordon, to your point, man. Like, would you ever have a season?
48:44Oli Gordon or Aaron Jones? End the show on that.
48:47What? What's the answer? On, on, what was the question?
48:50Aaron Jones or Oli Gordon? Rest of season. I think Oli Gordon.
48:53I'm more confident that he's going to be the lead running back in his backfield for more weeks this season.
48:59Yeah. Obviously, like, when Mason is out, Jones is better.
49:02But Gordon versus, like, I'm more confident. If you made me, if you made me place a bet on who will get
49:09more touches the rest of the season, it would be Oli Gordon.
49:12And therefore, he'll be my pick, even though it's a worse offense.
49:16I mean, Vikings offense. All right. Not great either.
49:18Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel.
49:22When you come and ask your specific fantasy trade questions, we'll be with you every Wednesday at 3 p.m.
49:27Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to youtube.com slash fantasy pros, subscribe and click the bell to be notified
49:34of all of our weekly live streams. We'll wrap things up there.
49:37Please be sure to check out our receivers and tight ends version of the same episode coming out soon.
49:43For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
49:46Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
49:49If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
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51:34If you're interested in blackmail, love bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something something for a dastardly individual like you.
51:41Listen to Get Worse with Kyle Pru on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
51:47This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.