9 Breakout WRs You NEED to Draft in 2026! | Fantasy Football League-Winners (Ep. 2158)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 29, 2026
Published
Sat, August 29, 2026
21
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Zay FlowersBrian Thomas Jr.Josh DownsParker WashingtonTucker KraftAlec PierceCarnell TateChristian WatsonDeVonta SmithJalen CokerJameson WilliamsLadd McConkeyMark AndrewsOmarion Hampton
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveDepth Chart60:40
Alec Pierce is viewed as a volatile asset who has failed to record 50 catches in a season. His fantasy value is hampered by inconsistency and recent injury issues, making him a less desirable target compared to the more reliable Josh Downs in the Colts' receiving room.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeDepth Chart30:35
Brian Thomas Jr. is currently losing snaps to Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers in two-receiver sets, and he frequently leaves the field in three-receiver sets as well. His ADP has fallen behind Washington's, reflecting his diminished role in the current Jaguars offensive rotation.
Insight pageNegativeRole60:10
The source highlights that Brian Thomas Jr.'s performance was affected by the coaching regime change involving Liam Coen, serving as a reminder not to discount organizational shifts when evaluating players.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveValue41:42
Carnell Tate is considered one of the most mispriced players in fantasy football. Despite a quiet preseason, his top-five NFL draft capital and attachment to an ascending quarterback in Cam Ward make him a prime breakout candidate. While there are concerns regarding the offense's target distribution and the fit with Brian Dayball, his current ADP (WR31) offers significant value for a player with his pedigree.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout3:19
Christian Watson is a strong breakout candidate if he stays healthy, as the Packers' offseason moves—trading Dontavian Wicks and letting Romeo Dobbs walk—signal a clear plan to utilize him. While Matt LaFleur historically rotated receivers, the current roster construction suggests a more condensed target share. If the Packers increase their passing volume, Watson could be a 'smash' at his current ADP.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveUsage55:06
Smith is highlighted as a player with significant upside due to the departure of AJ Brown, which is expected to lead to a massive increase in his target share, building on his proven talent.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper38:13
Coker is considered a talented late-round target (ADP 140) who showed high-end production when healthy last season, including a 20% target share and 2.3 yards per route run from weeks 13-19. While concerns exist regarding Bryce Young's ability to support multiple pass-catchers and the emergence of Xavier Legette and Jalen McMillan, Coker remains a high-upside value play.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveBreakout42:20
Williams is a high-upside breakout candidate coming off a season where he finished as the WR11 in half-PPR, with a significant performance jump after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. He led all players with 50+ touches in yards per touch (15.9) and has received praise from Jared Goff and Campbell, suggesting he is in for a big year despite competition from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveValue37:00
Despite concerns regarding the additions of Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen, the source believes Downs' ADP has slipped too far. He is viewed as a strong value, with the analysts suggesting he should be drafted about two rounds ahead of his current WR45 ADP, placing him in a cluster with Wan'Dale Robinson and Jakobi Meyers.
Insight pagePositiveUsage55:38
Josh Downs is positioned for a breakout as he takes over the high-volume, short-to-intermediate role previously held by Michael Pittman. Despite the addition of Keenan Allen, the Colts are utilizing Downs in two-receiver sets and outside alignments, expanding his usage beyond the slot. With Alec Pierce dealing with ankle issues and Pittman's 111 targets vacated, Downs is a reliable target at his current WR40-45 ADP.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveBreakout10:18
Lad McConkey is a screaming value at his current WR20 ADP. Despite a disappointing rookie finish, he led the NFL in separation win rate from the slot and was elite against man coverage. With Keenan Allen's 122 targets vacated and a significantly improved offensive line, McConkey is expected to be used in a Tyreek Hill-esque role under Mike McDaniel. Both analysts view him as a top-12 wide receiver candidate.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveUsage64:11
Mitch expects Mark Andrews to be the primary red-zone target for the Ravens, noting that his betting line for touchdowns is higher than Zay Flowers', and he would prefer Andrews in that specific role.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
NegativeValue18:53
Mitch Anderson and Justin Mello are critical of Marion Hampton, primarily due to his rising ADP. They feel his price in the second round is too high to justify, especially given that neither the source saw enough from him last year to warrant such an investment.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveValue30:12
Parker Washington is rising in ADP, currently sitting around WR30, and has solidified his status as the primary Jaguars receiver to target. His helium has increased significantly, with his draft position rising about five spots in the last week, moving him ahead of Brian Thomas Jr.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:35
Parker Washington has solidified his role as the Jaguars' WR1, consistently staying on the field in two-receiver sets over Brian Thomas Jr. He flashed significant talent late last year, finishing as the WR16 during the fantasy playoffs from Week 9 on, while leading the team in targets, receptions, YAC, and efficiency metrics. While a top-10 finish is unlikely due to the team's run-heavy approach, he is a strong candidate for a fringe WR1 or high-end WR2 finish.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue39:04
Trevor Lawrence is a high-upside quarterback target who showed significant rushing utility near the goal line last year. The analysts view him as a value at his current ADP, noting that his mobility in Liam Cohen's offense and the depth of the Jaguars' receiving corps provide a high ceiling that exceeds his current market price as a low-end QB1.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveValue7:20
Mitch Anderson and Justin Mello are high on Tucker Craft, noting they have even flirted with ranking him above Colston Loveland. They believe his presence is a factor in the Packers' offense, but the expected target concentration among the remaining receivers keeps them confident in the overall passing game outlook.
Insight pageNegativeValue46:51
Kraft is viewed as a late-round tight end target, though the recent signing of Johnny Smith has introduced some concern regarding his usage and the potential for him to be eased into the offense.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBust62:01
The host is fading Zay Flowers as a breakout candidate, arguing that he is unconvinced Flowers will see the necessary increase in touchdowns to reach a league-winning ceiling, despite others on the show disagreeing.
Insight pageNegativeProjection63:21
Mello likes Zay Flowers but views him as a solid WR2 rather than a player with top-five upside, noting that while touchdown regression is possible, he is more of a 'comfort food' pick than a league-winner.
Insight pagePositiveValue65:03
Mitch suggests that compared to receivers like T-Mac, Luther Byrd, Devonta Smith, and Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers feels like a 'trying not to lose my league' pick rather than a high-upside target.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode.
0:04Available on Plus and Pro Plans. Hello everybody, welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:09I'm Ryan Warmly, joined today by a couple of guests from the Lineup Fantasy Football Show.
0:13It's Mitch Anderson and Justin Mello. Guys, thank you for coming on.
0:16We were supposed to have a fourth on the show today.
0:19Derek Brown is having some technical difficulties and is not going to be joining us today, so we will power through without him.
0:26But I appreciate you guys making the time. Mitch, I'll start with you.
0:29Thanks for coming on. Yeah, no pun intended on powering through.
0:32I think Derek just cut his power because he didn't want to talk with us anymore, but we're fired up to be here.
0:39We're fired up to have you. Mello, how are you doing today?
0:42I'm doing great. I think Mitch cut D-Bro's power because he wanted the light shined on him.
0:46I don't know. We want a spotlight there. Definitely wish he could be here, but still pumped to be here regardless.
0:52We are talking some wide receivers that we think are going to break out this year.
0:57And what we're going to do, because D-Bro prepared a couple of names, so we want to have more names to give you guys and give the audience.
1:04We're going to kind of throw the names that D-Bro picked at you too, see what you think.
1:09You know, we'll talk about where they're ranked, their real-time ADP, stuff like that.
1:13And if we agree with D-Bro with these guys as potential breakouts, even though he won't be here to defend himself.
1:19And I'm sure he'll be screaming in the comments of this episode with any takes that we neglected of his.
1:24Reminder for everybody that all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings.
1:30I'm also going to be referencing real-time ADP on the show, a really neat page that we have on Fantasy Pros where
1:36it's not just showing ADP that has, you know, sometimes outdated data from, you know, where you guys were going earlier in the summer, but it's updated real-time.
1:43You can see trends within the last 24 hours, also trends within the last week, and just kind of see where you guys are going.
1:50So if I reference a player's ADP, I'm likely referencing their real-time ADP on today's episode.
1:55Just because it's the order I have in the sheet, we'll start with one of D-Bro's.
1:59The first player he wanted to talk about was Christian Watson here.
2:02Watson is ranked, if you look at ECR, kind of in that 20s range.
2:06He's wide receiver 27, so in high-end wide receiver 3.
2:09Similar in the real-time ADP, he's wide receiver 28, so just one spot lower than consensus rankings.
2:14About the 64th pick, if you look at it on average across different sites.
2:18So Mitch, starting with you, is Watson somebody that you are targeting in that range?
2:22Do you see the upside here the way D-Bro sees it?
2:25This is so interesting. He brought him up on our show, and I think kind of our consensus with Christian Watson is
2:31like, if you believe he can stay healthy, I think there's a very serious opportunity for a full-on breakout.
2:36You look at what the Packers did over the offseason.
2:39They trade away Dontavian Wicks. They let Romeo Dobbs walk.
2:41There's clearly a plan to utilize Christian Watson. Of course, they go and pay him a whole bag of money.
2:47So I think for both of us, and I think Melo has more concern, I'll let him talk about that with the injuries.
2:53But if Christian Watson can stay healthy, he might be one of the better picks in this range.
2:58It's just a question of like, do you have it in you to take the risk on a guy that really can't
3:04seem to put together a full season? Do you guys think, Melo, that do the Packers need to throw more?
3:10Like even if we assume health, do the Packers need to throw more for Watson to take a true breakout step?
3:16Because he did kind of do this at the end of last year.
3:19I think it was some, what was it, wide receiver 13 across the last seven or eight weeks, something like in that range.
3:26So we did see a breakout already. I have been sort of buying into the notion that Green Bay will maybe open
3:32it up a little bit more this year. I just, I really liked Jordan Love.
3:36Obviously there's like players that we're really excited about here.
3:38Do you think that needs to happen for Watson to be a true breakout Melo?
3:43Or is it strictly like if the health is there, you're bought in?
3:46I don't necessarily think it needs to happen just because I think part of the issues with Watson, aside from injuries historically
3:52have been Matt LaFleur loves to rotate his receivers.
3:55But like Mitch mentioned, they kind of just got their guys now, like with Wicks gone, with Dobbs gone, it seems like
4:01you're not going to see as much rotating in and out with these receivers.
4:05So we don't necessarily need to see a high passing volume offense here in Green Bay for Watson to really hit, but it certainly would help a lot.
4:12It certainly would give me a lot more confidence if we do see Jordan Love throwing the ball a lot more here in 2026.
4:19And I definitely think it's possible for a number of reasons.
4:22I'm not sure about this Green Bay defense. I certainly don't know about Micah Parsons health, at least early on in the season.
4:28Who knows what's going to happen with Josh Jacobs and that whole ambiguous situation where they don't really have great depth behind them.
4:35Maybe they do start throwing the ball more. And if that happens, Christian Watson could be an absolute smash at ADP.
4:40Mitch, do you see Tucker Craft as a factor here?
4:43Cause obviously he wasn't on the field during that breakout that Watson had in the second half of last season.
4:49I do. And that's a great point and probably something I should have mentioned.
4:52He is one of the guys that we have talked ad nauseum about this summer.
4:57We are huge Tucker craft people. We've flirted with ranking Tucker craft above Colson Loveland, because we have that much confidence in
5:03him once he's on the field and that full strength.
5:05So yes, I do think it's a factor, but I think when you just look at how much the target share should
5:11be condensed with less weapons on the field, I still feel pretty confident that Christian Watson will get his as long as he's out there.
5:18Where is he ranked for you guys, Christian Watson?
5:21Cause I, like I said, why are you just, you were 27 sort of like something around the 64th pick.
5:26Um, I know that there's, we see the upside of the pick there, but for both of you, is that somebody that you're actually drafting in that spot?
5:34Mello? Yeah, that's about right where I have them.
5:36Actually I'm pulling up my updated rankings now, but I think I have them right in that range.
5:41So he's not somebody I'm necessarily reaching to go get because I have that strong of convictions, but I feel good enough about the upside.
5:48If he can say on the field that I think he's very appropriately priced.
5:52What do you think Mitch too high, too low?
5:55Just right. I am slightly below consensus. I think there's just enough receivers in that range that I feel a little safer
6:01taking and a little bit more confident in that I'd rather take the shot on than go for Christian Watson.
6:06All right. That was the first one from Debro.
6:09Uh, let's dive into one of your guys's picks.
6:11Mitch, I'll start with you. Who's the first receiver you want to talk about?
6:15I'm going to mellow. This is coming from both of us.
6:18We just named him as an hour guy on our show, but it's lab McConkey of the Los Angeles chargers.
6:24And I want to take a look back at the charger situation last season.
6:27You have Joe all and Rashawn Slater to all pro tackles out for the majority of the season leads to the chargers
6:33having the 32nd ranked pass blocking offensive line out of, if you can do the math 32 teams forces.
6:39Justin Herbert to take a career high in sacks also ends up posting a career high scramble rate.
6:44Part of the reason we saw Justin Herbert as the second highest Russian quarterback in the NFL last year.
6:49But then you also bring in Keenan Allen, who already had a rapport with Justin Herbert.
6:53He ends up soaking up 122 targets. And so if you ended up drafting lab McConkey last year as I think it
6:59was the wide receiver 11, he finished up as of course you were disappointed in a wide receiver 27 finish.
7:05But I do want to explain why is so much different this year and why he is a screaming value at around the wide receiver 20.
7:12First reason, obviously we're all talking about it. Mike McDaniel come to town.
7:16He has very clear plans for scheming up lad.
7:18We've seen lad already tearing up training camp. Keenan Allen officially an Indianapolis Colt, therefore not coming back and neither are his
7:24122 targets from last year that are now vacated.
7:27And obviously we got the news about Tyler Beattish ending up on IR, but still this offensive line is so much stronger than what we saw in 2025.
7:34And all of this talk I'm doing is about the environment, but I want to look at why we were drafting lad so highly last year.
7:41As a rookie, he was the wide receiver 12.
7:44He led the entire NFL and separation win rate out of the slot.
7:47He was almost just as good when lined up out wide.
7:50Absolute demon against man coverage second in the NFL and average separation score.
7:54But if you look at 2025 to this cataclysmic year that everyone's freaking out about, he really wasn't that bad either.
8:00Lad himself finished fourth among all receivers in average yards of separation.
8:03He was the number one overall receiver in separation score against cover two.
8:07Now he's in line for a lot more of those high value targets that we look at in the red area.
8:12He even had 15 last year with Keenan Allen commanding 16, which once again are vacated.
8:17And then we got the report today, Daniel Popper from the athletic reported that there's been talks about lad being used similarly
8:23to how Mike McDaniels, we use Tyree kill in Miami.
8:26And so if you don't believe me, listen to what Jim Harbaugh is saying, listen to what Mike McDaniels saying.
8:31And I think lab McConkey is my favorite breakout pick at wide receiver.
8:35Mello. When you think about the charges offense is lad somebody that you look at as he is the place.
8:40I want to invest in this offense, or you have the mindset of, I want to get as many chargers as I can.
8:47I'm buying the Herbert McDaniel pairing. I'm buying the healthier offensive line, you know, Tyler be honest, his side.
8:52Are you kind of interested in taking as many shots as you can on the chargers or is lad sort of like the prime guy for you?
8:59Well, a little bit of both if I can, because I'm bullish on this offense as a whole.
9:04But if there is one guy like at cost, it's certainly live McConkey, even though that cost is still relatively high, but
9:10it's not high compared to what it was last year.
9:13And that's what's interesting to me is all of the reasons we were excited about lad going into last year.
9:18Obviously, it was like Murphy's law coming to fruition.
9:21Everything went wrong. That could go wrong. But everything we were excited about going into the season still exists now.
9:26And I would argue there's more to be excited about with Mike McDaniel in particular.
9:31Yet he's so much cheaper than he was last year.
9:33So he's a guy I'm taking a ton of shots on.
9:36I absolutely love the value on my McConkey. What do you think Mello is like the ultimate ceiling in terms of like best case scenario?
9:43Right. Like, because I don't imagine there's really a world where he's wide receiver one this season.
9:48Certainly, he could be a very highly ranked guy by the end of the year.
9:52I totally agree with the pick. And I think he's going to have a really productive season.
9:57And I love getting as many charges as I can.
9:59I'm imagining that you guys don't see like a wide receiver one by by that.
10:04I mean, literally number one, not top 12. Obviously, we could see that.
10:07But what do you think is sort of the ceiling of like, hey, this goes as well as it can.
10:13Where is he ending up? You think? Well, it's very funny.
10:16You mentioned that because earlier this summer, Mitch wrote a very controversial article about the the bullish or unlikely case that lad
10:22McConkey finishes as the wide receiver one. Okay. People did not seem to react to that very well, which I can understand.
10:28But being realistic, like I don't think his ceiling is that far removed from what we saw in like the prime Keenan
10:34Allen days in the early Justin Herbert career where I mean, he was what was his career best finish?
10:39Probably wide receiver three or four. I'm not projecting that for lad, but I 100% think it's in his range of outcomes.
10:45What do you think ceiling wise, Mitch? I mean, obviously, if you had that piece, then you have already thought about this.
10:51A lot of people did not understand the word bold ahead of case for that.
10:55And so what I've been calling it is the extremely reasonable case that lad McConkey will outperform his ADP.
11:01And that's kind of where I'm at with him.
11:03To me, I see the ceiling. Yeah. In like a top five wide receiver if they are utilizing him enough.
11:09And to me, as long as he's healthy and like what they've gotten that receiver room, what I feel we're going to see from the chargers.
11:16I think we've got a wide receiver one outcome for lad McConkey as in a top 12 receiver.
11:21Yeah. I mean, it's basically like what do you I mean, especially if you include the playoff game he had as a rookie.
11:27Like we've already seen him hit that level of height.
11:30So just quickly, I know we're talking about receivers on the show.
11:33Are you guys interested in Marion Hampton as well?
11:36Just thinking about the chargers offense as a whole, as a mid second round pick.
11:40Like, are you invested not just in the passing game, but also in the running game here?
11:44Or are you specifically looking at lad is again, sort of the best investment here, Mitch?
11:49We, I think we view loud as the best investment.
11:51We've probably been a little bit critical of a Marion Hampton.
11:54I think neither one of us saw exactly what we want to see last year.
11:59And obviously injuries factored into that. But I think it's more of a price issue with Hampton for me rather than a,
12:05I don't think he's going to give you points as a fancy football player.
12:09I think his price has just risen a little bit too much for me that I'm not personally targeting him in the second round.
12:15Mel, let's go to your, excuse me, number one receiver that you want to talk about here.
12:20Yeah, I'm going to be talking about another young receiver here.
12:23And that is Ted Rola McMillan going as about the wide receiver 17 right now.
12:27Last year as a rookie, he was the wide receiver 15.
12:30Now in year two, he's being drafted as the wide receiver 17.
12:33And to me, that just doesn't really seem to make sense.
12:36Last year we saw how good he was of rookies with at least 20 targets last year.
12:41He led all of them in receptions, yards, touchdowns, pro football focus, receiving grade.
12:45He finished second in yards per reception among those same rookie receivers.
12:48He was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft, proved it to be worthwhile winning offensive rookie of the year.
12:54He has the skill set and the athletic profile to develop into an elite wide receiver in this league for years to come.
13:00And despite all of this, we're drafting him lower than he finished last season in terms of position rank.
13:05The one argument I keep hearing against TMAC is that we're drafting him at his ceiling.
13:10But to me, I'd argue we're drafting him at his floor because we saw him perform better than this last year.
13:16That cannot be his ceiling. And if anything, you'd hope he takes a step forward here in year two, as we so often see with wide receivers.
13:23It's B last year, the year two wide receivers were really disappointing in the recency bias of everything.
13:28People are fading them when in reality you have a top 10 pick here that proved how talented he is.
13:34And to me, he's not going high enough. I like the fact that he could be lining up in the slot a lot more this year as well.
13:41We've seen it in camp, sort of that big slot role.
13:44I know that Bryce Young and the Panthers don't inspire a lot of confidence.
13:48I will be the first one to admit that.
13:51But this is just a bet on talent for me with TMAC, a bet that he can get enough volume to make it work.
13:57It's worthwhile. He clearly has the talent. I think he'll have the volume too.
14:01So I'm willing to bet on this breakout. Mitch, your co-host took the words right out of my mouth.
14:06Is Bryce Young good enough to make this a savvy pick?
14:09The thing I keep saying is Teddero McMillan has a Bryce Young problem.
14:13But I agree with Mello. I'm betting on the talent too here.
14:16And you talked a little bit about the usage we've seen so far here in the preseason.
14:21They talked about wanting to move him around the formation more.
14:24We've seen it in camp. We saw it in the preseason.
14:27He went 57% of his snaps out of the slot.
14:30And we're talking about a guy like, okay, is he going to get enough volume to have a high-end ceiling?
14:35He was 14th in target share last year. I imagine in his sophomore season, he will take a step up from that.
14:41And Mello, your point was perfect. I think between Malik Nabors' injury last year, Brian Thomas Jr.
14:46fell off the face of the earth. Lad McConkie disappointed.
14:49I think there's a certain stink around these second-year receivers that's suppressing their prices.
14:52And we always say zig when others zag, be greedy when others are fearful.
14:56And it just feels like a perfect spot for T-Mac to get him at a value.
15:01Mello, do you think we're going to see more touchdowns this year?
15:04Because you look at last year, obviously, you know, in the first 10 weeks, he had one game where he caught any touchdowns.
15:10He had two of them in that game against the Cowboys.
15:13But then from week 11 on, he had 2-1, 1-0, 1, and then a couple of 0s.
15:18So he had five in the last, was that, seven weeks of the season.
15:22Where, like to you, is that a trend of like, hey, they're figuring out how to use him a little bit more second half of the rookie season?
15:30Like a bit of a breakout specifically in the red zone usage?
15:33Or really just like regression because he was getting so many catches without finding the end zone early on in the season?
15:39Do you think that will play out more in year two?
15:42Or is it just a general, you know, target share, volume?
15:45He's a good player. So taking another step forward that has you excited.
15:49Are you specifically looking at touchdowns? I think it's more so the latter.
15:52I think just overall, you know, I'm not betting on an increase in touchdowns, but I think that likely will come to
15:58like you mentioned, it was so feast or famine last year.
16:01It felt like he was allergic to the end zone the first half of the season.
16:06You finally saw them come a little bit later.
16:08You hope that carries over into next year. And for what it's worth, he profiles as a great red zone weapon, just his stature, his style.
16:15And the Panthers don't have a lot of that on this team.
16:19They don't have a lot of other elite weapons, particularly that particularly that led themselves well to scoring down by the goal line.
16:25So I absolutely could see an uptick in touchdowns as well, which is just another reason to be excited.
16:30The only case against Ted or McMillan that I feel like I can make besides like obviously asking the Bryce young question.
16:36Well, I guess I should say, including the Bryce young question is with that offensive environment.
16:41I'm looking at the other receivers in real time ADP going around him and it's where she rice is a flowers, Jalen Waddle, lad McConkey.
16:47These are all receivers with great quarterbacks or great offensive play collars, you know, established offenses that we have a lot of
16:54faith in the only guy around him that doesn't really fit that bill is Garrett Wilson.
16:58But everybody else that's in this real time ADP range of him amongst the receivers at least are guys in offenses that
17:04you just have a little bit more more faith in.
17:07Where did you say Mello that he you said he should be ranked higher?
17:11Where do you have him ranked actually? Well, it's a really interesting question.
17:14So I have him at about the wide receiver 14.
17:17So not significantly higher, but I think what's really interesting about it is in addition to people fading these year two receivers,
17:23I think receivers are just going a little bit later than they have the last two or three years.
17:28Maybe I think there's this narrative this year that you have to get your running backs early, which is what we saw maybe five, 10 years ago.
17:36I think that sort of coming back and our receiver like T Mac.
17:39It's not only that. I think he's getting ranked too low in terms of where he is positionally.
17:44It's that you can get a quality receiver like that a little bit later than you could a year or two ago.
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18:12All right, guys, let's get to D bro's second receiver.
18:14He wanted to talk about Parker Washington. Definitely a favorite amongst the folks here at fantasy pros a favorite amongst many people in the larger fantasy football world.
18:22If you look at real time ADP wide receiver 30 about the 67th 68th pick in drafts right now, that's actually risen
18:28about five spots overall in the last week. So the helium continues to be there for Washington early on, you know, like early in the summer.
18:35I remember having conversations about like should he be going ahead of Brian Thomas Jr.
18:39or not? He's now going about a full round ahead of him.
18:43So that has really solidified as he is the Jaguars receiver to target.
18:46He's going in range of guys like Christian Watson, who we already mentioned, Mike Evans, Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:51It kind of feels to me, Mello, I'll start with you that if you look at ADP and just the narrative and
18:57the way people are talking about the position, there feels like there's a clear cut top 30, I should say.
19:03And he is the 30th of those 30 in ADP right now.
19:06And I think you could maybe make a case for like Marvin Harrison Jr.
19:10as like a, you know, a post type sleeper where Carnell Tate is a rookie, they're 31 and 32.
19:15Beyond that, it gets not gross, but just a little more worrying.
19:19I think the later on you get at the position, it's not quite as deep as maybe its reputation would hold.
19:24So like Parker Washington, if he's the last of those top 30 on the board, I am prioritizing getting him myself.
19:30I'm totally bought in. I'm, I'm in agreement with everybody who has the hype here.
19:34What do you think, Mello, about Parker Washington in that range?
19:37Is he a breakout candidate? Yeah, I totally think so.
19:40And I appreciate you starting with me because I don't know if you heard Mitch's deep breathing as soon as you said the name Parker Washington.
19:47I've had to listen to this guy gush about him nonstop episode after episode.
19:51Makes me feel like because I like him, I don't actually like him because Mitch loves him that much that by comparison, I don't like him.
19:58But I do. I think there is sort of a tear break right around where he's going right after where he's going.
20:04And there's been so much hype and all this drumbeat this whole off season, but it really has been warranted.
20:10Like you saw the talent flash toward the end of last year.
20:13It was unclear because of this crowded receiving room, how much that would carry over into this season.
20:18But by every indication, he is the wide receiver one on this Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence offense.
20:23He is going to not come off the field very frequently.
20:26And in fact, there, all the reports have been two wide receiver sets.
20:30It's him and Jacoby Myers. Brian Thomas is leaving the field most frequently in two wide receiver sets.
20:34When Travis Hunter subs in and three receiver sets were once again, seeing Brian Thomas leave the field, Parker Washington staying on with Jacoby Myers.
20:41And that's why I think it's totally appropriate now that Parker Washington's ADP has pretty safely passed Brian Thomas's.
20:47I know from like a draft capital perspective, it sounds insane.
20:50A year ago, it would have sound criminal, but I think it's totally fair.
20:53I'll stick with you for a second before we bring in the super fan in Mitch.
20:58Similar question to what I've asked from these other guys.
21:01What's the actual ceiling? Because even if he's at the top of this receiving chart, there still are other names.
21:06This is still an offensive coordinator who is, you know, I know what there's some question marks about the running back room,
21:12but who has typically had a strong running game as well.
21:15So is the volume, even if he's number one in target share, is the volume enough for him to be a true
21:21breakout like league winner type, you know, really live up to the hype that's surrounding him right now?
21:26Yeah, I think it depends how you define the league winner because of what you mentioned, like this is going to be a team that runs the ball.
21:34This is a team that has so many different mouths to feed, even if Parker gets the biggest slice of the pie.
21:40I don't envision him having like a top five finish, probably not a top 10.
21:44But could I see him being a fringe wide receiver one, maybe a high end wide receiver two?
21:49Absolutely. I think that's completely in the cards and with where he's going.
21:53If he does that, that kind of is a league winner or at least somebody that can make a significant difference on your roster.
21:59All right, Mitch, give us the reasonable case for Parker Washington finishing as wide receiver one this year.
22:04No, I can only be unreasonable. I talk about Parker Washington.
22:07I'm Melo. I'm actually with you. I would say that's around where I have his ceiling.
22:12But I think the thing that bothers me about Parker Washington is we're talking about if he'll break out in 2026.
22:17I keep saying this to Melo like we already saw the breakout in the back half of last year from week nine on.
22:24He was the wide receiver 16 in your fantasy football playoffs.
22:27He was the wide receiver six. He led the entire team in targets receptions yards after the catch yards per outrun targets per outrun.
22:33Like this guy to me has been so obvious.
22:36I've been talking about him since January. I think that we want so badly to get pieces of this Liam Cohen offense.
22:42And it was a little bit ambiguous for a while who was going to be the guy and he really has emerged.
22:48And I think it's more obvious now. So he went from being a really awesomely priced guy in best ball earlier on
22:54in the summer to restricting that bridge a little bit to what kind of value you can get.
22:59But I still think he's a tremendous value here at wide receiver 30.
23:02What what route are you drafting him in Mitch?
23:05Oh, I hate saying this in case my league mates are watching, but I'm I'm getting him in round five.
23:10That that is the downside of doing all these shows in August.
23:14All your league mates are like my mom will watch the shows and she'll be able to draft with me in the family league.
23:20You mentioned this guy. I'm like, thanks. Thanks a lot.
23:23Round five for you, though. You're comfortable taking it.
23:26Yeah. Yeah, I I'm in on this one. Part of me early on, I feel more strongly about Parker Washington now.
23:31Part of me early on when it felt like a little more ambiguous in terms of what this receiver room might look
23:37like was just saying I just want to draft all the Trevor Lawrence and, you know, then not worry about where the ball is going.
23:44Do you like Trevor Lawrence, Mitch, as a quarterback target?
23:47Absolutely. We always make the joke as we're starting out these receivers.
23:50We've started out Trevor Lawrence have like seven thousand yards and 60 touchdowns because it's just weapons weapons everywhere in Jacksonville.
23:56I think what we saw at the end of last year, he was absolutely tremendous, not just after his bye week in the fantasy football playoffs.
24:03Him and Brock Purdy just went nuclear. And now I just I see him price as this like semi low end quarterback
24:09one when to me, I think the upside is so much higher than that.
24:13Mello, same question. Where are you at on Trevor Lawrence?
24:16All the way in and I'll put my hand up.
24:19I'm a former Trevor Lawrence hater. I've been cured.
24:21I've been fixed. And I don't think there's a quarter.
24:24Yeah, I've seen the light. I don't think there's a quarterback.
24:27I'm drafting more than Trevor Lawrence because it's like Mitch said we're standing on all these receivers to be incredible.
24:32Maybe you want their quarterback, especially when that quarterback finally showed off the legs in a major way last year.
24:38I'm not saying he's going to have nine touchdowns again, but they used him down by the goal line design runs quarterback power.
24:44He's quarterback draws. You get that with the passing.
24:47I'm drafting so much Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, I don't think that running is going anywhere.
24:51Liam Cohen likes having quarterbacks that are mobile. I think you will continue to be willing to use Trevor Lawrence in that area of the field.
24:58So yeah, I'm 100% too. Mitch, let's go to your number two receiver here.
25:02All right, let's talk about a guy that you actually mentioned who's going just a spot below in Carnell Tate.
25:07I think Carnell Tate outside Parker Washington is one of the most if not the most mispriced players in fantasy football this year.
25:14This is a guy who had top four NFL draft capital.
25:17He's attached to a young ascending first overall pick a quarterback.
25:20They bring in an offensive coordinator this offseason and Brian Dayball who has historically loved to spam his number one receiver.
25:26You look at Stefan Diggs in Buffalo or even Malik Nabors as a rookie in 2024 when he got the second highest
25:32target share of any wide receiver in the past five years outside of only JSN in 2025.
25:36And now everybody is freaking out because we haven't seen a whole lot of production in the preseason.
25:41And I'm just trying to remember if there was another top five wide receiver pick in recent memory who struggled in the preseason.
25:48I wonder where this is going. Something about can't catch a ball if it doesn't have the white stripes.
25:53I think it was Jamar Chase who finished as the wide receiver five as a rookie.
25:57And now Carnell Tate like you said is going as the wide receiver 31 according to fantasy pros real-time ADP.
26:03Before I wrap though, I understand with the Jamar comp that Cam Ward is not Joe Burrow and I have my own concerns about Cam Ward.
26:10But it does feel fitting that last year we were taking Travis Hunter as the 62nd player off the board.
26:15The year before it was MHJ at 16, Nabors at 49.
26:18The last time a wide receiver who was a real-life top six NFL draft pick was drafted as low in fantasy as
26:24the 73rd pick was Jamar Chase in 2021 as the 73rd pick off of the board.
26:29This is Matt Rogers from Las Cultures. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
26:33This is Bowen Yang from Las Cultures. That's with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.
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27:41This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show.
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28:28Additional terms apply. See website for details. Was he really that low back then?
28:32Oh, man. We were all so stupid. We were all so stupid.
28:36I remember the one. Holy cow. Yeah. I mean, like with Tate, you know, obviously you said like we haven't seen the most production.
28:42We've seen zero production in the preseason. I just to say that.
28:46It's funny. I've said the last couple of years on doing shows often with D-Bro how like Malik Nabors, the year he
28:52came out, I kept saying in redraft leagues, this is the cheapest he's going to be for the next several years.
28:57And I want to get it when he's at his cheapest.
29:00I said the same thing about Ted O'Reilly and McMillan a year ago.
29:04And I feel similarly about Carnell Tate. I don't feel as much conviction with him as I did those other two examples I just gave.
29:11But I do feel similarly about real-time ADP of 78.
29:14Like that's, he's not going to be that cheap next year.
29:17Oh, that just ruined my stat. Yeah, yeah. But I'm like, that's not going to be as cheap next year, right?
29:22Absolutely. I like, there's just no way. So yeah, like even if you are worried about the tight and I am worried
29:28about the fit of Brian Dayball and Cam Ward.
29:31And obviously we saw flashes from Cam Ward and I generally am a believer.
29:35We do need to see a pretty significant step forward, right?
29:38I wonder if Dayball has maybe been pulled up a little more by the quarterbacks he's been with rather than vice versa.
29:44Like there are definite concerns for me with this type of Titans offense in general.
29:48But again, the receivers going after Carnell Tate. I do not inspire a ton of confidence to me.
29:53And just blindly taking top 10 receivers as rookies and holding on, even if he starts off slow, holding on for like that second half breakout.
30:00That's such a tried and true strategy that more often than not, I feel like pans out.
30:05So I, yeah, I, at caught, if he was going 10 spots higher, I'd feel super differently about this.
30:10Absolutely. Where he is, it does feel mellow. Like this is a really good value.
30:14Yeah. I think the key you just said there is if you draft him and he gets off to a slow start,
30:20do not panic trade him because we see like last year seems like maybe the only exception where there wasn't a rookie
30:26receiver who really broke out down the stretch. I guess Luther burden is probably the closest thing to it.
30:31But pretty much every year we see one, two, three rookie receivers start off slow.
30:36And then they're absolutely winners. That is why I'm in at Carnell Tate at cost.
30:40I will say beginning of the season, I am a little bit nervous just because I'm not quite sold on cam word yet.
30:46Like we talked about with a guy like T Mac having a Bryce young problem.
30:50Bryce young is a former first overall pick. We could be talking about cam word like that in the next year or two.
30:57There's also another very good receiver there in Wanda Robinson who was a thousand yard receiver last year.
31:01So I'm not sure the target share is going to be quite where you want it immediately.
31:06So I definitely have my concerns and I understand why he's getting drafted a little bit later than we'd normally would see
31:12a top 10 pick in the NFL draft go.
31:15But with that said, yes, because he is so cheap and because I could see him being a league winner the second
31:21half of the year, I'm totally taking shots on Carnell Tate.
31:24What do you guys think is his ceiling not in fantasy, but just as an NFL wide receiver?
31:29And I ask that because I feel like the fact that at no point in Tate's college career has he been the
31:35top NFL draft prospect in that receiver room. So I wonder if that has sort of lowered everybody's estimation in their heads.
31:41Like, oh, well, like he's not as good as Jeremiah Smith is going to be in a year or he wasn't as
31:47good of a prospect as Marvin Harrison Jr. was two years ago or he wasn't as good as I wonder if that
31:53is sort of messing with people's perception and viewing him as lower ceiling than he is.
31:57And maybe you could make a compelling case that he's not as high ceiling as some of those other guys.
32:03I think that's valid for some of those names.
32:05But but I wonder where you see his ceiling just overall as an NFL receiver, Mello, because I think this is a
32:11really good player, even if he's, you know, multiple tears down from a guy like Jeremiah Smith.
32:16Oh, absolutely. I mean, look at Justin Jefferson. He wasn't the number one receiver on his college team and developed into maybe
32:22debatably the best receiver in the NFL, at least at one point, maybe still is.
32:26Obviously, the quarterback play last year contributed to his downfall a little bit.
32:30But yeah, I don't really mind that he wasn't the number one at Ohio State, which just pumps out wide receivers like a factory or something.
32:37With that said, I don't think he is like the same elite level prospect as most receivers that go as high as he did in the draft.
32:44But I think he'd be a very good real life number one, like a Terry McLaurin or something like that, you know,
32:50when he hits his prime in his career. Mitch, do you think about it similarly in terms of, hey, his number four
32:56pick, which we love seeing receivers get that draft capital, but really weak class, like kind of different circumstances there?
33:02Yeah, like talent wise, if I look at like the NFL wide receiver landscape, like top 10 to me is like where I could see Carnell Tate landing.
33:10I think from a talent perspective, I can't see him breaking into those like top three, four or five guys.
33:15But I think he's got the talent to be there.
33:18He just this situation in fantasy football reminds me so much of like the way we're viewing team act the way we
33:24view Drake London, where you're saying like, yeah, this quarterback situation is awful.
33:28But this guy is so talented that he is going to pay off, and especially in this case with Carnell Tate, where the price is just too low.
33:35Yeah. All right, Justin, give me your second receiver.
33:38Next, I'm going to be talking about Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts going at about the wide receiver 40.
33:43Now, let me address the elephant in the room first.
33:46I know Keenan Allen just signed with the Colts could eat into the workload of Downs, similar to what we saw last
33:52year with Ladd McConkie, who we talked about earlier.
33:55So that does admittedly make me a little bit nervous about Josh Downs, but I'm still willing to take the shot because yes, Keenan Allen is there.
34:02But at this point in his career, what he is right now, he is not nearly as good as Michael Pittman.
34:08Pittman's now long gone out of Indianapolis, and that's really meaningful when you look at how involved Pittman's been in this offense.
34:14He had 111 targets each of the last two years.
34:17Those are all up for grabs now. He was the first read on a ton of targets the last couple of years.
34:23Last year, he dominated short to intermediate routes, had an average depth of target of 8.4 yards, which is exactly what Josh Downs' ADOT was as well.
34:30So to recap that, the Colts lost their high volume first read type of receiver who dominated in the short to intermediate game.
34:36And to me, Josh Downs is the guy who profiles as the one best to steal those targets to play that role.
34:42I know he's stylistically a little bit different in size and stature than Michael Pittman, but I think a lot of those
34:48targets are going to go to him. And on top of all of that, the Colts are verbally telling us that Josh Downs will be more heavily utilized.
34:56They've been putting him on the field in two receiver sets.
34:59They've been lining him up outside, which really has been the issue for Downs.
35:03He's been primarily just a slot who's on the field in three receiver sets.
35:07We're now seeing him play outside. We're seeing him on the field when there's only two receivers.
35:12He's looked great in camp. All the camp reports out of Indy have been that he has looked spectacular.
35:17And for what it's worth, Alec Pierce still has these ankle issues.
35:20He has still not practiced all of camp. So with all that said, forget Keenan Allen.
35:24Josh Downs, I think, is finally going to see a ton of volume here in 2026.
35:29We could very well finally see the breakout that we've been waiting for.
35:32And if his ADP continues to slip because of Keenan Allen concerns or because Alec Pierce was just activated, that's even better.
35:39I think it's a better bargain at that point.
35:41They're back-to-back in real-time ADP. Alec Pierce and Josh Downs right now at 40 and 41 amongst receivers, which is interesting.
35:47And it's kind of funny. Downs has gone up in the last 24 hours on real-time ADP, but he's gotten down in the last seven days.
35:54So kind of just like a lot of stuff, you know, different factors at play here in this Colts receiving room.
36:00Mitch, I'll just ask you, where are you at on Downs and really this receiving room in general?
36:05Because not only Pierce's injury and the addition of Keenan Allen and Downs himself as a player, but also Tyler Warren, I
36:11think, could catch a ton of passes this year.
36:13And this is a team whose best player is Jonathan Taylor, so they want to run the ball, and whose quarterback is coming off of the Achilles injury.
36:21So there's just so many factors at play here.
36:23There is so much. Like, Indy is just so hard to get a read on.
36:27But what I'll say is I'm entirely with you.
36:30I think I was probably a little bit too low on Tyler Warren earlier on the offseason, and I've finally seen the light.
36:36But when it comes to the wide receiver room, we've talked a lot about this.
36:40I just – my philosophy as a fantasy football player is that I don't want a guy like Alec Pierce, a guy
36:46who hasn't had 50 catches in his career. And you're going to have those boom games, but you're also going to have those massive duds from him.
36:54And I just see Josh Downs for a lot of the reasons Melo said as a guy who's more reliable and more consistent.
37:00And do I like the fact that for Josh Downs that Alec Pierce just got activated?
37:05Do I like the fact that they just went out and got Keenan Allen?
37:08Of course not. But watching that price fall, I agree with Melo that I'm starting to think the ADP is slipping more
37:15than it should for those two things happening. Yeah.
37:17Where would you take him at this point, Mitch?
37:19Josh Downs right now, I'm seeing him. He's at the wide receiver 45.
37:23I kind of like him around that Wandale Robinson, Jacoby Myers.
37:26I view those guys very similarly. Probably about two rounds ahead.
37:29Yeah. For you, Melo? Same range. I'm taking him probably about two rounds ahead of where he's going.
37:34Those guys you just mentioned, Mitch, they're all in a cluster for me.
37:38High – probably mid to high 30s. He's very similar stylistically, very similar in terms of the production I see them having in fantasy.
37:44When I say a breakout from Josh Downs, I don't think he's going to be wide receiver one for you.
37:50I don't think he's going to have a helpful finish.
37:52But do I think he can significantly beat his ADP?
37:55Absolutely. Yeah. Quick note for everybody on the draft simulator.
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38:11That's fantasypros.com slash mock. Last one from Debro here, guys.
38:13He wanted to throw out Jalen Coker. I've heard him talk about Coker many, many times on the shows that I've done with him.
38:20So I'm not surprised that he would have picked him.
38:23Wide receiver 50 in real-time ADP. About the 140th pick.
38:26So obviously a later pick that you're looking at.
38:28I think similarly to what you just said, Mello, about Josh Downs, probably a limit on the true breakout ceiling here, especially
38:34given that he's in the same receiving room as Ted O'Royd and McMillan.
38:38So now we're talking about all the question marks we have with Bryce Young in the offense and now looking at the
38:44number two receiver as opposed to the number one receiver in that offense.
38:47Where are you guys at on Coker as, let's call him a really good value who can bring back a lot of
38:53production at this cost as opposed to like, I don't need you guys to pretend to make the case that he could
38:59be a wide receiver one or anything like that.
39:02Mitch, where are you at on Coker? Yeah, I'm a little bit higher than consensus.
39:06I think we've both agreed for all summer. I think Jalen Coker is so talented.
39:10I think we've seen a comfortability between him and Bryce Young that as much as we're excited for how much more volume
39:16T-Mac could see, Jalen Coker is still going to get his.
39:19And anytime I see a receiver with that much upside going in like the 50s or 60s, like these are the type
39:25of guys I want to target, like a wide receiver two on a team that isn't making the big flashy plays, but
39:31is getting a good amount of volume and in your PPR leagues, like he's just going to chip away and he's going
39:37to get you the points and he's gonna be a solid guy on your roster.
39:41So I'm going a little bit higher than consensus.
39:44I probably have him like low 40s versus 52 where I'm seeing him right now.
39:48I'm going to read a little excerpt from Debrow actually has the player note on fantasypros.com on Jalen Coker's page.
39:54So just to give us some stats that I'm sure he would have said here.
39:58Last year when Coker, again, this is reading Debrow's words.
40:00Last year when Coker was at his healthiest during weeks 13 to 19, he was challenging Tedaroa McMillan for the top spot in Carolina's aerial attack.
40:08During that stretch, Coker had a 20% target share.
40:10McMillan had 18.3%. 2.3 yards per outrun. McMillan had 1.78.
40:13Four red zone targets. McMillan had one. And a 28.3% first read share.
40:16In those six games played, Coker finished with at least 14 PPR points four times.
40:21He's a late round priority for me this season.
40:23The massive divide between McMillan and Coker in ADP should not exist.
40:26Enjoy the value. End quote. So Debrow, obviously very high mellow here on Jalen Coker.
40:30Yeah. And as a TMAC guy, it hurts me.
40:33And it also hurts me because I genuinely like Coker a lot.
40:36As a talent, I think he is a phenomenal player.
40:39What I keep going back to is the Bryce Young problem that we have here in Carolina.
40:44Unless he takes a step forward, it's hard to imagine him really supporting multiple pass catchers, which is what scares me.
40:49I think what's been scaring me the most too is the reports in recent days or recent weeks that Tedaroa McMillan will
40:55be playing more in the slot this year. It seems like the offense is really trying to commit to build their whole
41:02system, their whole offense around TMAC, around their top 10 pick from just a year ago.
41:06That scares me for Coker. Now with that said, he's going late enough that I don't mind taking a shot on him
41:12because what if we're wrong about TMAC? What if he's not going to be the true undisputed alpha of this offense and
41:18Coker is just going to get his? Well, then all of a sudden he's a huge value with where he's going.
41:24I'm just a little bit nervous that Bryce Young won't be able to support two pass catchers.
41:28And in a world where TMAC does take that step forward, Coker is probably going to be a little bit disappointing.
41:34Some of the names around him in real-time ADP just at any position, Jalen Coker, are Jake Ferguson, Chris Rodriguez, Xavier Worthy, Jacoby Myers.
41:41And literally right next to him in real-time ADP is Jason Myers, the Seahawks kicker.
41:45So that gives you a sense of where you can try to get Coker in drafts this year.
41:50And I think as a late round flyer, it just makes all the sense in the world.
41:55I wish I could disagree with more of Debrose's picks with him not here.
41:58That would have been way more fun. Unfortunately. We can tell him we did.
42:02You should have lied. You should have said somebody you don't like that he also doesn't like.
42:07Yeah. Yeah. I should have been like, Debrose's big breakout receiver this year is Jalen Naylor.
42:11And he was out at the table. Jerry Judy is his guy.
42:15Something like that. That would have been fun. A missed opportunity.
42:18All right, Mitch, here's your number three receiver. All right.
42:20Let's talk about Jamison Williams. I will not lie.
42:23I've been burned before by Jamo, but call me Michael Scott because no question about it.
42:27I am ready to get hurt again. We saw Jamo last year finished as the wide receiver 11 and half PPR, but
42:33I think anyone who had him on their team knows it was a tale of two halves.
42:38Weeks one through seven, when offensive coordinator John Morton was calling the plays, he was the wide receiver 42.
42:43Then weeks nine to 18. Once Dan Campbell took back play calling duties, he was the wide receiver five overall, just a complete flip after the bye week.
42:51But now we're seeing him light up lines camp here in 2026.
42:54Sam Laporta did just return to practice, but we're obviously monitoring that hip injury.
42:58Tesla hasn't impressed quite like how all of us thought he would here in camp and preseason.
43:03And so I'm going to ask a very bold question.
43:06Is Jamison Williams just Luther burden light? Jared Goff just did an interview with the athletic where he said how proud of
43:12the steps Jamison Williams has taken in the offense this offseason, how much he's improved over the past month.
43:17And if you've drafted him in the past, you're ripping your hair out, begging for more volume because you know just how
43:23good this guy could be with more targets. And then I saw a great stat from a good friend, Pete Nova on
43:29Twitter that I thought really illustrated that the stat is that of any player with 50 or more touches last season, Jamison
43:35Williams led the entire NFL with 15.9 yards per touch.
43:38Jamo is electric. He's been a standout in camp.
43:40Dan Campbell has already stated that Williams is in for a big year.
43:44And so we've got this guy who has two straight thousand yard seasons.
43:47He's building a better rapport with his quarterback. He has the backing from his head coach who wants to find more ways
43:53to get the ball in his hands. And so I'm absolutely heating up on him going as the wide receiver 25 going
44:00outside of your wide receiver two spot that you're drafting.
44:02I think he's just such a phenomenal bet. Yeah, it's so interesting because like I know some of the pushback on Jamison
44:08Williams as well, you know, like Sam Laporta was banged up during that time when he finally had his breakout, you know, in the second half last year.
44:16I'm like, I just look at this narratively and I go, the reason it feels like that Dan Campbell took over play
44:22calling last year was because he was frustrated with Jamison Williams.
44:25Yes. In the ball. Like he loves this guy.
44:28Do you think just because he's not calling the plays this year when he went out and was bringing on a new
44:34play caller that he didn't say to Drew Petson, like you have to get this guy the ball.
44:39That just feels like it's going to be such an edict from him this season that that was interview question.
44:44Number one. Yeah. I mean, I have to imagine.
44:47Totally. So I'm like, like, dude, the head coach loves this guy.
44:50Quarterbacks talking him up. I think there's a chance that the Lions are in a lot of shoot.
44:55I know they have a really easy schedule. I still think we might see them in a lot of shootouts this year.
45:01You just throw in the ball a ton. Erickson Debrow and I are sharing a team and a league against some of our listeners.
45:07We just drafted earlier today for an episode and we'd all take Jared Goff because we're like, we think the Lions are
45:14going to pass a lot and these receivers are going to have good seasons.
45:17So, um, yeah, it's, it's funny because some of the names around Jameson Williams are really intriguing to me as well.
45:23Christian Watson is on the list there. I like Roma Doones a lot.
45:27Those guys are sandwiching Jamo, you know, Luther Burden is on the list.
45:30Mike Evans, Parker Washington, a couple spots further down.
45:33So it's like a strong area for receivers. I feel like in drafts, but the upside feels just kind of extra special with Jameson Williams.
45:40If it hits maybe a little less certainty of it hitting mellow.
45:43Where are you at on Jameson? I don't hate where he's going.
45:46I think I'm a little bit less optimistic as Mitch knows.
45:49We like to have some Jamison William debates. Uh, I think he's a great player.
45:53I love how he ended last season. I love the type of boom potential that he has, but in a weird way,
45:59Mitch, it's almost like what you were talking about with Alec Pierce, where I don't know if I want to live and die that way.
46:06Those you're going to have those big boom games.
46:09You're also going to have the duds. Yeah. So that does concern me.
46:12I like this offense that he's in. I like that they might be the highest scoring offense in the league, but also don't like that.
46:19A lot of that's going to come with Jameer Gibbs and a lot of that's going to come with Amon Ross St.
46:25Brown. And I, although I know he plays a very different role, a lot of it may come with Sam Laporta, who,
46:31like you mentioned, worm was injured, was not playing during Jameson Williams breakout last year.
46:35So all that to say, I'm kind of just okay with where he's being ranked.
46:40But with that said, all those other receivers you mentioned going in the same range, I'd personally rather take the shot on that.
46:46What about, cause you mentioned earlier, I think it was you Mitch, that you guys like Tucker craft.
46:51They're back to back in real time ADP. Would you rather be taking your tight end here and shooting for the ceiling
46:57there or with this pick and sort of like early sixth round dish range, um, taking the upside swing on Jameson Williams?
47:03I am as a, as a Brock Bowers, no matter what guy, it would kind of depend if I've already drafted Brock Bowers.
47:09And if I have that, I'm absolutely firing on either J Mo or Parker Washington around the spot.
47:14But yeah, you do have to consider if I don't have a tight end at this point, Melo, you agree like Tucker
47:20craft is the last of the guys that I'm really targeting before I'm fully punting.
47:24Yeah, I agree. And to be honest, even as someone who's not super enthusiastic about either, if I have to pick between
47:31the two at that spot roster construction aside and all its equal, I probably still would take J Mo.
47:36And that's as someone who likes Tucker craft. I am getting a little bit nervous just about some of the narratives around him sort of being eased in.
47:43And then they just went out and they signed Johnny Smith today.
47:47So that all kind of concerns me a little bit.
47:50Um, but I don't have a, I wouldn't have a huge problem with someone taking craft over J Mo either.
47:55Melo, let's stick with you for the final wide receiver breakout.
47:58All right. My last guy, somebody Mitch is probably sick of hearing me talk about is the rookie out of San Francisco
48:04to John's tripling going as the wide receiver 47.
48:07Now he's finally moving up in ADP, but for most of this off season, this poor man has been so disrespected because
48:13people did not think he should be the 33rd overall pick in the draft.
48:16But the matter of fact is he was, and maybe just maybe that was a really good decision by the 49ers as
48:23he's now in a position to be an instant contributor.
48:25Obviously we know Ricky Pearsall was placed on season ending IR with that knee injury that required surgery.
48:30And it's opened the door for stripling to have a much larger role in this offense.
48:35And he has more than capitalized so far. You look at the 49ers first preseason game, got the start, accumulated seven receptions
48:41for 63 yards and just about a quarter and a half had an incredible down field catch near the sideline.
48:46He also led the team in receptions and receiving yards in their second preseason game.
48:50And I know that's just preseason, but it hasn't only been the preseason.
48:54He's consistently been turning heads in camp. 49ers reporter Grant Cohn went as far as to say, quote, he already is the best receiver on the team.
49:01Full stop. He is the only wide receiver on the roster who will actually frightening, frighten opposing defenses this year.
49:07And quote, that's crazy high praise. He has somebody who likes dribbling a lot, but it's great to hear.
49:12He has this golden opportunity to carve out a significant role in a Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy offense.
49:17He's done everything so far to take advantage of it.
49:20I absolutely love Mike Evans, but that curse up station has his groin all messed up now too.
49:25So like all of a sudden I'm getting nervous there and stripping strippings ADP is skyrocketing like I alluded to earlier, but
49:31he's still affordable and I'm still willing to take him at cost because I think he could be another one of those rookie league winners down the stretch.
49:39If you look at real time ADP in the last 24 hours, he's up four spots amongst receivers alone.
49:44And in the last seven days, he's up 25 spots across all positions.
49:48So that ADP has jumped two rounds just in the last week.
49:51You know, it has been a constant drumbeat, right?
49:53Of, of this helium and the hype just kind of growing louder and louder right now in real ADP.
49:59He's just a hair outside the top 100. Is there a point Mello where it gets to be too pricey and you
50:05no longer feel like he's a good value pick or are you still like, we're not close to that point yet?
50:10If he moves up another two rounds, I'll probably sit that one out.
50:14Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. But right now I'm still taking that shot for sure.
50:18Yeah. Mitch, where are you at on stripling? Are you more a believer or more a, you know, worrier?
50:23Let's say. No, I can't believe Mello would say that, that I would be tired about hearing of Dijon stripling.
50:28I love Dijon stripling and I want to give Mello his flowers because we hopped on an episode like, you know, the
50:34Monday after the draft and he has been beating the drum the entire time saying this guy's way too low.
50:40This guy's way too low. And here we are having the conversation of, is he getting too high?
50:45And so I'm with you. If he goes up another two rounds, okay, I can't do it.
50:49But there's already a tremendous opportunity in front of him in an offense.
50:53I love with a quarterback that I named one of my, my guys for this year and Brock Purdy.
50:58And now you talk about what if Mike Evans does miss time?
51:02What if another injury pops up? And then stripling is going to be out there as the wide receiver one for Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan.
51:09Like the upside here is actually insane. And we mentioned it.
51:12Even if a rookie starts out slow, we always say draft rookies don't trade them and hold on to this guy.
51:17Cause I think he's in for a huge rookie season.
51:20Do you, this is, it's tended to be more of a running back thing.
51:24You know, Kyle Shanahan for all of his success as an offensive play caller and designer hasn't drafted very well.
51:30Skill position players in day two of the draft.
51:32Is that in the back of your mind at all?
51:35When he, you know, especially since by consensus reached on stripling.
51:38I mean, again, I know that's been more of a running back thing, Mitch, or is that you think about that at all?
51:44I guess when you think about stripling, I think it was in the back of our minds closer to the beginning of
51:50the off season after the draft, but I think just what we've seen from him so far and the way he has
51:56like established himself in camp in the preseason, he looks like the real deal.
52:00It was crazy. That first preseason game. I'm watching the highlights.
52:03I was like, that's just Juwan Jennings. I'm literally just watching Juwan Jennings.
52:07So I I'm fired up about him. I think those concerns are out of my brain, at least for now.
52:12Mello. If you look at real time ADP right behind is John stripling is Josh down.
52:17So two guys that you have highlighted that you like, who do you prefer?
52:21I'm still probably taking downs there. I think those are two guys that are a little bit underpriced.
52:25I'm probably taking downs because I think there's a better chance he gets off to a hot start, which just sort of
52:32increases his value in the trade market or, you know, whatever you want to do with him.
52:36But that's tough. I don't like that. You made me pick against a genre.
52:40That was cruel. Picking between your kids. Yeah. Well, I want to wrap up with just a question on generally speaking, and
52:46maybe this would have been better to do at the top of the show, probably if I was a better host.
52:52But what do you guys look for in a breakout receiver?
52:55Like when we sit down for an exercise and say, hey, I want to bring you guys on for an episode.
53:01I want to talk about your wide receivers that you expect to break out.
53:05Are you first thinking about these are guys that I thought were pretty good values on draft day?
53:09Are you looking at I don't really care about ADP value.
53:12I just care about like who I who I just really want to invest in and think is going to be awesome
53:19even if I want to pay up to get them.
53:21Are you looking at a particular stat? Are you looking at the offenses and like the quarterbacks and the play callers first?
53:27Any direction you want to go? Melo, starting with you because I was mean to you with the John Stribbling and Josh one.
53:34Where do you where does your mind go when you think about how do I pick a breakout receiver?
53:39Yeah, that's a really great question. I think the number one thing I go for over anything is just I want it
53:45to be somebody I believe in the talent. I think talent sort of trumps all.
53:49So that's sort of like the first qualifier for what I look for in a breakout.
53:53And beyond there, I think it's one of a few things.
53:57One is elite volume. Another is a great offensive ecosystem.
53:59Obviously, if you have both of those with the talent, I'm all the way in.
54:03But those are usually the guys that are going pretty high in drafts anyways, to the point where maybe they're not such great values.
54:10Like when you look at a guy like Luther Burden, who's everyone's favorite breakout this year and how pumped he's been pumped up.
54:16He's been an ADP. But if you can get at least one of those two things in combination with the talent, those
54:22are the guys I'm really interested in. Mitch, same question.
54:25Are you looking talent, volume, environment? Where does your brain go?
54:28I obviously second everything Melo said. But also another thing I would mention is something I always look for is how did they end last year?
54:35You know, did we start to see a breakout?
54:38Do we have something to go off of? And then more importantly, did we see any changes in the offseason?
54:43Like one of my favorite things and, you know, we'll see what Ashton Gentry's health looks like.
54:48But like one of the reasons I was so steamed up on Ashton Gentry is like everyone's so upset about the rookie season.
54:54But you bring in Clint Kubiak and you shore up the offensive line.
54:58And for me, a guy that I'm also looking at that we didn't mention because, you know, he's already going so high.
55:04It's like Devonta Smith. What changed over the offseason?
55:06AJ Brown's out of the building. Like Melo said, we know Devonta Smith is talented.
55:11We know without AJ Brown, he commanded a 35% target share.
55:14And so I'm looking for what are those changes in the offseason that are truly meaningful for, like you said, Melo, the
55:20amount of volume a guy is going to get and the offensive environment around them.
55:24So then what about the reverse? Are there any pitfalls that you feel like people tend to fall into when they are
55:30trying to identify great values at receiver, great, you know, breakout candidates?
55:33Are there other stats you think people look at or narratives people are looking at, Mitch, that you say, actually, I don't
55:39think you should look in that direction and you're going to fall into some traps here if you do.
55:44One of the things we talk about, the exact reverse of what I just said, discounting organizational changes.
55:49I think one of the things we've been harping on is like, we love Jackson Smith and Jigba.
55:54We think he's awesome, but it can't go without being said that like Clint Kubiak's no longer there.
55:59He was partially the mastermind behind scheming up and creating this incredible season for JSN.
56:03And so when you look at these guys and you look at organizational and situational changes, it's important not to just say, well, who cares?
56:10Because this guy's talented. In a way, part of me thinks some of that with Brian Thomas Jr.
56:15last year, no one thought about the fact that Liam Cohen came in and it was going to be a completely different regime.
56:22And we saw a little bit of a different result for Brian Thomas.
56:25So I think not discounting organizational changes is really important.
56:28Mello, same question. Yeah, I think that's probably the number one thing for me as well.
56:32The one thing I'll add to that too is mispricing ambiguous situations.
56:36If there's a team where we're not really sure who the true wide receiver one is from a real life NFL perspective,
56:42but one of them is so much more highly priced than the other for whatever hype or narrative that's going around in the fantasy community.
56:48Maybe that's not the guy you should be taking the shot on.
56:52If it is just somebody you're projecting a breakup for us, as opposed to someone who's been there before, maybe it is
56:58the cheaper guy because those ambiguous situations. We often have a really big gap in prices between the offensive weapons when there really shouldn't be.
57:05I'm going to ask you guys one more question and it's a player that you guys didn't, you know, suggest talking about
57:11today, but I want to bring him up because in the last two days I've gotten in tons of arguments with some
57:17of my coworkers on these shows about this player and the true upside here.
57:21I am a Ravens fan, yet I am the one fading Zay Flowers as a big breakout this year because I am
57:27unconvinced that we are going to see the touchdowns go up to the point where we need them to be for him
57:33to be a true like fantasy level, you know, huge step forward league winner type.
57:37Erickson disagrees with me. Debro disagrees with me. I feel like I'm fighting everybody.
57:41I'm the Jon Snow gif, like pulling out the sword against the army.
57:44I cannot win these arguments with them. They are convinced that Declan Doyle is going to get him, you know, more touches
57:50in the red zone and, you know, Mark Andrews falling off a cliff is going to get him.
57:55I'm unconvinced. What do you guys think on Zay Flowers?
57:58Would he have been a worthy conclusion on an episode like today?
58:01Mello, starting with you. I like Zay Flowers a lot.
58:04I think the touchdowns probably should go up, honestly, more from just like a regression standpoint than even just the play color change.
58:10But it's the ceiling that I'm a little bit less convinced on.
58:14He's just kind of like comfort food for me.
58:16It's like you want a good like solid wide receiver to high end wide receiver to we got your guy in the third round.
58:23But I don't know that I would pick him making the bet that he's going to have a top five finish or anything like that.
58:30Mitch, I am making a bet with Erickson on our show.
58:33Who's going to have more touchdown catches for the Ravens this season?
58:36Mark Andrews or Zay Flowers. He was despondent to find out that at Vegas, the line is actually favorable for Mark Andrews.
58:42His line is higher than Zay's. He's like, there's no world that's happening.
58:46I think it probably will. Well, what say you is a flower is going to catch more touchdowns this year.
58:51No, I think I'm not even that high on Mark Andrews, but I actually think that it's like where his value is
58:57going to be in this offense is in the red area.
59:00And so I would absolutely take him over him.
59:03And just to like echo what Melo said, like I look at the receivers going around him, T-Mac, Luther Byrd and Devonta Smith, Lad McConkie.
59:10Like these are all guys that I want to take a shot on the upside versus I get it.
59:15Like you're not going to go broke taking a profit.
59:18Zay Flowers just feels like I'm trying not to lose my league pick.
59:21Yeah. All right. Thank you guys for bearing with me on throwing in one more receiver your way.
59:26Like I said, I just, I feel like I've been taking crazy pills arguing with my coworkers.
59:31And so I wanted to get an outside opinion here on that debate.
59:34We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in to our breakout wide receivers.
59:39Thank you to Mitch and Melo for joining us on today's episode.
59:43And thank you to D-Bro for coming up with some players, even though he wasn't here to talk about them.
59:48For all them and you guys, the listeners, I'm Ryan Wormley.
59:51We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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