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0:21What's up friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros. Today we've got the big booms and we've got some busts.
0:26Some players that are not going to work so well.
0:29I don't know, you guys get to decide. Nine boom or bust players.
0:33Probably the most boom or bust with the highs of highs and the lows of lows.
0:38Are you looking for floor? Are you looking for ceiling?
0:41These players could make or break your fantasy season.
0:44And we are all going to be picking some names.
0:47I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice here today for the booms or the busts.
0:52Andrew Andrew Erickson, by the way, when I mentioned booms, my brain is, I'm brain rot now because I immediately went to
0:59the Costco guys and you were like, like Archie, right?
1:02And I'm like, how old are you? Like, what are you talking about?
1:05Like the only booms in the world are the Costco guys.
1:09Yeah. Peek behind the curb before we hopped on the show, took the dog out to do a boom and confirmed big boom.
1:16We're ready to rock. He knew what the show sheet was today.
1:19I forgot that was your dog. I was thinking like Archie in the comics.
1:23That's how old actually I am. At least Pat probably got that.
1:27But yeah, dogs with the big booms and we've got booms and busts here.
1:31Mr. Pat Fitzmaurice. You've got a puppy Erickson. I've got a 55 pound pit bull next.
1:36You want a big boom? No, I am excited about this episode because these are guys we are conflicted on ourselves.
1:42I think we're going to talk it out. Maybe we'll hug it out because yeah, a lot of these guys I've am
1:49presented with these dilemmas and drafts and I'm still not entirely sure which way to go.
1:54So and something interesting about this just before we jump in is like, you know, we've lots of episodes are our favorite targets and our favorite sleepers.
2:02And you guys, if you followed along with our content throughout this draft season, you've heard a lot of like similar names.
2:08You know, you might have watched you might be a Pat Fitzmaurice guy.
2:12I see in the comments people love Pat. They lock in.
2:15They want all the Pat episodes. You probably have had crossover of like, you know, similar things of players that Pat has really liked.
2:23But in a lot of those, unless you have these hyper-focused episodes where it's like, these are the no's and these are the yeses.
2:30You might not have like a diverse conversation around the pitfalls of some of these guys as well, the positives and the negatives.
2:37And that's what we could do here. Like specifically, I've picked a player that is like one of the most popular like breakout sleeper.
2:44They've crossed every line of fantasy at this point of what they can be.
2:48They're targets for everybody. But this we can talk about the positives, but also the negatives.
2:53That is the boomer bus for your team. So that's what we're going to cross into here.
2:58You might hear a couple of names you've heard before.
3:01You might get some different takes on a few players.
3:04These nine players boomer bus, whatever you decide and how we break it down for your fantasy season.
3:09If you guys want to make sure that you are locked into all these players, some of the reference points, make sure you download the fantasy pros app.
3:18You can go to the fantasy pros website where you can access the ranks, the ADP, real-time ADP, and pretty much everything else we're going to be referencing.
3:26So go and do that. Get prepped for your drafts today.
3:29We'll talk more about that. But let's jump into this episode with nine boomers.
3:33We're not going to actually do any more nine booms.
3:36I'll do no more Costco guys stuff. But we do have nine players.
3:40And Pat, you get to start us off here, Fitzy, with your first of your boom or bus players for the 2026 season.
3:47I feel like Jeremiah Love is kind of an appropriate headliner for the show.
3:51And I really want to be fully in on Jeremiah Love.
3:55We saw in his one preseason game just how wildly talented he is, unfortunately, because the Cardinals saw fit to give him 14 touches in his first taste.
4:03Of NFL action. Picked up a high ankle sprain in that game, which can be a complicated injury, as we know.
4:09It's more like a knee injury than an ankle injury.
4:12So Love, right now, ADP, RB15, 33rd overall. Sort of towards the back of the third round.
4:17And I know people are not excited about the Arizona Cardinals offense.
4:21And they do have a pretty tough schedule. But, like, I want to be in on him at this price because we
4:27have seen, over the last 11 seasons, eight running backs taken with top 12 overall picks in the NFL draft.
4:33Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Ashton Gentry.
4:38Those eight guys averaged 1,474 yards from scrimmage and 10.9 touchdowns in their rookie seasons.
4:43Because they're just amazing football players, which is why they were drafted top 12.
4:47Christian McCaffrey, actually, had the worst statistical output of any of those guys.
4:511,086 scrimmage yards, seven touchdowns for the Panthers in 2017.
4:54I feel like that is kind of the floor for Jeremiah Love.
4:57And the ceiling could be a lot higher. I don't buy that.
5:01Like, Tyler Algier is going to cut significantly into the workload of a healthy Jeremiah Love once he's fully healthy and good to go.
5:08And I know people are going to talk about how bad the Panthers are.
5:12But, look, the combined winning percentage of the teams that drafted those eight running backs top 12 the year before they drafted them, 320 was the winning percentage.
5:21Those teams sucked too. So, but of course, you know, that is the reason to fear that he's going into the season
5:27already banged up and that this is a pretty terrible team.
5:31So, I get it. I get it. I'm sort of on the bear side here, but I want to know what you guys think.
5:38Do you ever see those videos where, I mean, I'll be honest with you, it might be the thing I hate the
5:44most, but sometimes I mentally engage where someone, you know, will tweet something and then there's actually no information.
5:50They'll be like, we all know who this person looks like.
5:53And then there's just nothing. It's just like, you know, baiting us to engagement baiting.
5:58But I saw one of those with Jeremiah Love and then they were just like, can we all agree we know who he looks like running?
6:06And I'm like, I'm like, I'm all like pissy.
6:08I'm like, come on, dude, stop trying to engage.
6:11And then I like watch a little bit more and I'm like, but he does kind of look like Adrian Peterson here.
6:17And then I click on it and I see everyone doing it and I'm like, ah, nailed it.
6:23And then I'm like, oh, they got me. They got me.
6:26It looked really impressive when he runs out there.
6:29But yeah, you bring up some interesting points. They like their other backs.
6:33It only took 14 carries for him to get banged up.
6:36The team is going to be really bad. Luckily, one of the things that he's going to be able to help in is on the receiving side.
6:44But I'm really torn. This is, to me, this is a little bit on the cost side.
6:49I think the cost is important in talking about the level of boom or bust he is because it's like a really high price.
6:56It reminds me a little bit of like Travion Henderson in that like he could still be good, you know, and he
7:03still can probably put up like top 20 ish RB range.
7:06But is he going to be able to have the boom?
7:09And that's where I'm really not sure. And I don't know if the equity makes enough sense.
7:15I think I feel like there's a lot of negatives right now.
7:18Erickson, do you play any positives? What side of the boom or bust are you on for Jeremiah Love?
7:24I think I'm more on the bust side. And that's not to say he's going to be dramatically underwhelming as RB 15.
7:30I think that Fitz pointed out with the draft capital of those running backs that Love is probably more of a floor play in year one.
7:38And it sounds weird to kind of talk about that.
7:41But 78% of running backs drafted inside the top 12 have been a top 12 fantasy football option in year one.
7:47So when it all the dust settles on the Cardinal season, I think Jeremiah Love's probably going to finish anywhere between RB 12 and RB 15.
7:55Kind of where he's going in being drafted. But I think the thing that you want to get right as a fantasy
8:02manager when you draft him is as a rookie running back, this production is more likely to be backloaded than frontloaded.
8:08That's what we see all the time. So with Love, he's a player that look, I'm probably not going to draft him.
8:15I like running backs more in his range, like wide receivers more in his range.
8:19But he's someone that I still want to watch and monitor as the season progresses.
8:24To like trade for. Exactly. And I think that's really a good thing to really take away from this episode as we go through these players.
8:31Because boom or bust is not, okay, this guy hit for 17 straight weeks.
8:36Most fantasy players are very inconsistent. And it's an up and down journey.
8:39And I think the perfect example of this is a guy like Jameson Williams.
8:44Last year, bust. First nine weeks, terrible. Second half of the season, league winner.
8:48Right? So Jeremiah Love could fall up into that category.
8:51And I say this now, and you could think, oh, well, no one's going to trade away Jeremiah Love.
8:56Everybody knows it. People dropped Jameson Williams last year because he was doing absolutely nothing.
9:01And he was a big disappointment. So that's the thing to keep an open mind about a player like Jeremiah Love.
9:07Even if you don't draft him, still monitor him.
9:10Because the other thing to point out about the Cardinals, Nathaniel Hackett, that guy is just a red flag for fantasy football.
9:17It's Mike LaFleur's offense, though. Come on. If that guy's in the meetings, if he's doing, again, I don't want him on a team.
9:24Like, get him, if he gets fired, boom, buy all Cardinals.
9:27Like, that's exactly what you want to do. To paint a picture of a positive note with Nathaniel Hackett, he did do something well with Brie Saul.
9:35Brie Saul was RB2 during Nathaniel Hackett's one year as the Jets' offensive coordinator in 2023.
9:40And that was because of receiving. If Love is going to bury you, it's going to be because of the receiving usage.
9:46Because I have concerns about the touchdown equity he has because of Tyler Auger, because of Bam Knight.
9:52These are guys that they've used at the red zone in the goal line before.
9:56Trey Benson got cut. James Conner is another player that they trust in the red zone.
10:01So if Jeremiah Love doesn't score double-digit touchdowns, is he going to bury you?
10:05And I would say no. So that's why I'm okay not drafting him at the RB, back-end fantasy RB1 range, and maybe
10:12betting on, okay, slow start out of the gates.
10:14Maybe I can trade for him if I need a running back, because I know his production is more likely to be back-loaded.
10:21The only thing I just wanted to throw in, and Pat, you can go on this, and then I want to do
10:28some over-unders for you guys real quick, though. It's like, I do think, though, that Jeremiah Love is a bust for a
10:35very specific set, or maybe not even so specific, but a wide range of types of fantasy owners.
10:40Like, you have to, I think, navigate, and you kind of alluded to this.
10:44Like, you've got to be able to navigate bad weeks.
10:47You've got to be able to understand if you took Jeremiah Love, you've got to have backup plans to cover yourself.
10:53And, like, that type of navigation can work for, like, super hardcore fantasy owners sometimes.
10:58But you might have, and I'm not, you know, you might have people that are tuning in now that are a little bit more casual and whatnot.
11:06I think it just takes a lot more navigation to potentially make him work, especially early on.
11:11And that might not be as ideal. Is the upside truly worth the navigating that you've got to do for him?
11:17And I tend to think that that might not be the case in this year one, that it's just the juice is not worth the squeeze.
11:25Yeah. Erickson makes a good point about the, you can put up good numbers.
11:29Ashton Gentry was a great example last year. Um, the overall number's pretty good by the end, but it was not a smooth season.
11:36It was very backloaded production. And, uh, you know, if, if you were an Ashton Gentry stakeholder last year, oh, great that
11:43he finished the season strong after you opened the season one and five.
11:47And we're kind of buried. That's exactly what I'm, yeah.
11:50Yeah. And, um, so I just took, I just took Jeremiah Love in a home league, uh, picking 309 last week.
11:56And I, um, I had fired up with Jackson Smith and Jigba and Kenneth Walker in the first two rounds.
12:02The fourth round, I decided to just take, uh, DeAndre Swift.
12:05Like, I, I kind of did not want to mess with the, I wanted to safeguard against the slow start and possibly
12:12some missed time early on for Jeremiah Love. Now, the sacrifice I had to make, uh, I wanted to like load up
12:19on wide receiver in the fifth and sixth round.
12:21I didn't get to take the, the premium tight end.
12:24I would have liked to. So that, that was the sacrifice, but I did sort of safeguard myself there.
12:30Um, and by the way, earlier, I think I said, I might've leaned toward the bearish side on Jeremiah Love.
12:36I live in Chicago and I don't know the difference between bears and bulls.
12:40I'm at bull side. Okay. Um, 220. Those are touches over under for Jeremiah Love.
12:45Pat. Over. Erickson. Over. 230. Keep going. Still over.
12:47Oh, I was just going to go up by tens.
12:50I don't know if I'm going to be able to stop.
12:53Okay. Two 50. Two 50. I would probably say, oh, I mean, I would probably put them around 250, 275 touches.
13:00I don't know what the projections have him, but that's.
13:03He's projected at around 280. And the reason I bring that up was Travion Henderson.
13:07This might be a case for him. Travion Henderson last year had around 220 touches and was able to pull out.
13:14I believe it was RB 19 or 17, uh, numbers, even though it felt very kind of wonky and that was low touches.
13:20So that again, whether I don't know if it's a boom or bust case, but he's projected this year for like 60
13:27more touches than Travion Henderson got last year. But obviously the offense is way worse.
13:31And in fairness, Travion Henderson was a platoon back in college.
13:35He shared time with Quinshawn Judkins at Ohio state, whereas Jadarian price kept another first round pick on the bench at Notre Dame.
13:42Yeah. Well, this is just more about like if they actually were to stay true to the word of that, they're going to use like multiple backs.
13:50And if Jeremiah love were to be used in a 15 touch way, you know, that's not necessarily going to happen.
13:56Projections are not saying that's going to happen, but they have been trying to tell us that.
14:01He just turns into a Roblox character and just falls apart.
14:04So that's the interesting case on it. So boom or bust Jeremiah love you guys can let us know.
14:10Uh, number two, these are kind of higher in ones.
14:13Erickson. I actually think this might be, uh, you guys pick the two best.
14:17You guys got to the sheet even before I made the sheet and you guys did it before.
14:23I think you guys pick the two like best, like, uh, uh, the names that should be the front face of this episode.
14:29Jeremiah love is one and Erickson number two that you have here.
14:33I think is the other one. Malik neighbors wide receiver, 11, 27th overall in the real time ADP.
14:38And looking at neighbors this season, we all know the upside case for him as the elite talent.
14:44And we're lucky. Me and Fitz are lucky that we got Malik neighbors in the Canes classic when we did at the
14:50end or the beginning of the fourth round in a 14 team draft, right?
14:55As we got the first positive news about neighbors in any capacity that he wasn't going on the pup.
15:00And ever since that report, it's only been positive about Malik neighbors and coming back from his torn ACL injury that it
15:07seemed complicated in the cleanup procedure, but it's all been mostly positive.
15:10Again, it's still not Malik neighbors full go. He's still kind of like checking off the boxes.
15:15Okay. Like now he's not in the non-contact jersey.
15:18Now he's in team drills. So it's progressing well, and that's obviously contributing to his skyrocketing ADP basically as a back end
15:25second round pick as a top 12 wide receiver.
15:27So there are still question marks about, okay, well, when do we actually see elite Malik neighbors come back to play for the New York Giants?
15:35Does that take four weeks? Is there a ramp up period when he actually has to turn around his type of production?
15:42I do want to point out too, that in 2025, not his rookie year, he didn't have like this super elite production, 12 points per game.
15:50He was wide receiver 14 in points per game, 24% target share, just 68 receiving yards per game.
15:55So that's something that I did want to kind of point out.
15:59I know that we're all reflecting on neighbors rookie year, and that's really the upside case with him.
16:04He was a target machine. This is a brand new offense with Matt Nagy.
16:08Again, we're throwing shade in Nathaniel Hackett, Matt Nagy.
16:11He deserves a lot of shade too, because he did not help the Chiefs offense whatsoever, and they were happy to let him walk.
16:18So how good is this Giants offense with Jackson Dart entering his second season?
16:22How often are they throwing the football? I know they've been very vocal under John Harbaugh about we want to establish the run.
16:29We have a ton of different running backs. We want to get involved.
16:33And I do think that there is a sense of not blind optimism in Malik neighbors coming off of this injury, but
16:39I did some ADP kind of digging to look at, okay, what other receivers have kind of followed this path where you
16:46have a top 10 season, you play less than 10 games, and then what do you do that following season?
16:52So wide receivers who play fewer than 10 games, an ADP of wide receiver 12 or higher the following season.
16:58There are nine of them. Three of them met expectations.
17:01So basically finished as a back-end fantasy wide receiver one, where the other six receivers were either small or big misses.
17:07So my big takeaway from kind of doing this ADP study was, yes, Malik neighbors can reach his wide receiver 11, wide
17:14receiver 12 ADP, but for him to be a super, super smash, I don't know if that's actually going to happen with
17:20him in 2026 based on the fact that he's coming off an injury, based on the fact that he's playing with a new quarterback.
17:28He barely played with Jackson Dart last year because Jackson Dart was the backup and they only played one game.
17:34It happened to be the game that Malik neighbors also got injured in.
17:37And so that's where I kind of get concerned about what the actual upside for him this season is.
17:43I'm not super enthralled with the offense. So that's kind of my take with Malik neighbors as a boomer bus player.
17:49And again, I'm going back to the point when I got, when we got him where we did Fitz and I like
17:56at that point it was all upside, but now you're paying a lot and you're taking him over a lot of other great players.
18:03When I could see a scenario where, yeah, the first month of the season, he isn't a difference maker.
18:09And maybe it does take half of a year for him to really get back under speed.
18:14So what do you guys think Malik neighbors? Are you in?
18:17Is it just, Hey, don't care. Bet on the upside.
18:20Cause again, I don't think he's a bad pick where he goes because of the upside he can offer, but I'm just
18:27trying to be realistic of setting expectations of what we're actually going to see him put on the field.
18:32Yeah. I like that you had different cases beyond, beyond the injury.
18:36Cause as you started, I was just sitting here thinking like, is this just based around the injury?
18:41And that's something I become a little injury agnostic.
18:44Sometimes when we get into drafts, like if a player's out there, like I will understand the draft history, but if they
18:51are just so talented, a lot of Christian McCaffrey, like I'm just going to, I'm going to kind of blind her sometimes
18:57because that talent, when that, that talent at any type of discount is too much for me.
19:02But you know, you make some interesting cases as far as like what the production could look like coming off of the injury.
19:09There's some questions in the offense. The only thing I kind of keep coming back to is like, I think, I mean,
19:16he is the force of this offense. I think we're, we're pretending to be like, well, they've got other options and stuff like that.
19:23And it's a new offense, but it's like, we just know it is going to be 70% first read.
19:29I loosely say, of course it's not going to be, but it's like, this is Malik neighbors, his offense.
19:34He's the number one in this offense fits you tell me differently.
19:38Like I tend to still just think the, the bus side is attached to injury, but maybe that injury is more of
19:44a lingering injury through the rest of the season and he can't thrive.
19:48But do you think there are scenarios where Malik neighbors is on the field and he does become a bus based on this really high cost?
19:56Yeah. If Jackson dart turns out to be not a great passer and he surprised me, he was better than I thought
20:03last year, especially considering he didn't have Malik neighbors, but I also don't expect him to join the Drake may Joe burrow category as a passer either.
20:11So that that's kind of an issue. Um, you know, he's got to play home games on that infernal turf, uh, that they've got it at met life.
20:19Um, but yeah, the upside here is something close to Jamar chase Puka Nikua.
20:23Like Malik neighbors is that talented. Um, and I just, you know, when Erickson and I got him 43rd overall at that
20:30point, we thought it was still possible. He'd go on the pop, but we were drafting in a 14 team league against
20:36people like Ian Harditz of Roto wire and rich rebar of sharp football and 11 other people who study fantasy football for a living.
20:44I think that should almost be part of your calculation as to whether you're interested in Malik neighbors, like the level of
20:50competition in your league, you know, weakness loves risk and strength loves certainty.
20:54Like if you are going against a bunch of strong players and you're not necessarily one of the, you know, top dogs
21:01in your league, go for it, man. Like embrace that risk of Malik neighbors because the payoff could be massive.
21:07But if you feel like you are one of the smartest managers in your league, then maybe you shy away from Malik
21:13neighbors because there is risk here for sure. So Erickson, you are a boom or a bust?
21:18I'm on the, the bust side here. I don't think that he's going to have a top five season.
21:24Okay. You may, I mean, I knew you made the case.
21:27I just didn't know if you bought it, if you were fully bought into it.
21:32Uh, Fitzy boomer bust on neighbors. Oh man, I'm squarely on the fence.
21:36Welsh. Oh, you have to pick one. You're going to fall on one side.
21:40You have to pick one. I mean, I'm, I have him basically at this ADP.
21:44I guess I'll say boom. Okay. Boom. I'm going to also boom, but I, that's fair to say that you're like right
21:51in the middle of it, but I'm also going to boom on Malik neighbors.
21:55All right. Let's look at mine. And my player is Lad McConkie.
21:59Ladd McConkie coming in at wide receiver 19 overall 40, not quite as sexy as the big names that you guys put on.
22:06I think there's a few other names that could have been thrown around in the boomer bus.
22:11And by the way, this category of the first player, we wanted to kind of this one, at least be hyper-focused on the higher end guys.
22:18But I feel like there's been just a, like a lot of positive conversation around Lad and he's starting to creep up in a lot of drafts.
22:26We're using real-time ADP as well for this. And he is at 19.
22:30And I think, I think there's a case on both sides.
22:34I think I do lean a little bit more on the bus side as I was looking through.
22:39And this was one of the reasons I picked him as well.
22:43Look at the last two years, 2024 was wide receiver 12 and half PPR last year was wide receiver 29.
22:49I mean, I think that is like a proven, like right there, boomer bust ability.
22:53He kind of sits in the middle this year when he comes in at wide receiver 19.
22:58Looking at a few things, Lad stats last year, 66 catches, 789, six touchdowns.
23:02Interestingly, wide receiver 19 last year, 63 catches, 938, six touchdowns.
23:06That was wide receiver 19. So pretty relatively close, except the yards are really missing.
23:10But my big problem has been what Lad is on this offense.
23:14And everybody's focused on this hyper high end stuff.
23:16But Lad, at least last year, was third on the team in first read percentage, 20.4%.
23:21Obviously, Keenan Allen is gone, who, by the way, was the lead in first read percentage.
23:26But this is kind of go back to an Erickson case.
23:29I feel like a lot of people, if you're just assuming Lad is going to be the big boom because Keenan Allen
23:36is there, is not playing in at all that Trey Harris is going to have some type of a force in this offense.
23:43Projections on Lad this year, 79 catches, 1000 yards, run 6.8 touchdowns.
23:46That's projected around wide receiver 22. The projected wide receiver 22 from last year, I believe, or actually the projected wide receiver 24 this year is T.
23:54Higgins at 70 catches, 965, and nine touchdowns. So what I'm giving you there with the projections for him and for the other positionals is there's a floor.
24:03But I guess my big case about Lad is I just don't think there's the boom up or the, yeah, the boom upside here.
24:10Mike McDaniel's offense over the last four years with Miami, but Tyreek Hill was the only wide receiver to have an over like 23% target share.
24:18And it was only two of the four years.
24:20He had like 28 and 31%. Otherwise, all of those years, guys like Jalen Waddell were sitting around the 20s.
24:26So he doesn't have, I think, big feed percentages in those offenses.
24:30The second wide receiver was around 20 to 23.
24:33So my boom case is I think you have to take the slider and you've got to pull it up to around
24:39a 29% target share for Lad McConkie to be an actual boom.
24:43I'm not even sure that he's a great floor play at this point.
24:47If you got that 29% target share, I think that can get him to a wide receiver 12, which he was in 2024.
24:54I don't think the offense speaks to it. I don't think they want to go with it with the other options.
25:00And he didn't do it last year. Maybe he gets up to 22% and Quentin Johnston goes up to 19%.
25:06And then Trey Harris starts to take some of that over.
25:09I think the case where everybody is pushing him up into the teens and he's the big, massive target.
25:15Someone just shared actually a draft that they just put together and they had taken Ladd over Zay Flowers and they had taken him over Tee Higgins.
25:23And I just don't, I don't buy it. So I think I understand the floor is in there.
25:28It's not as sexy as the other ones, but I'm making the case.
25:32I think there is boom or bust and how people are drafting Ladd McConkie.
25:36And I'm leaning a little bit more on the bust side just because I don't think the target share in the offense
25:43is going to center around him enough to get that 2024.
25:46I think it's gone. Erickson, I don't even remember where you at or Ladd, but what do you think?
25:52Boom or bust on Ladd McConkie? I'm more on the boom side of Ladd.
25:56I think that just when you were even as a Trey Harris guy, I like Trey Harris.
26:01I think that he's a great sleeper, but I still have Ladd ranked highest out among the Chargers wide receivers.
26:07Like if I'm going to make a bet on who I think would be the most to benefit from this Mike McDaniel
26:14led offense with Justin Herbert, the fact that Ladd is healthy was not healthy.
26:18I think last year, I think he was playing through a lot of injuries and that is part of his profile.
26:24His smaller wide receiver, he does get banged up and that was very true at Georgia, but was also true at Georgia
26:31and during his rookie year, the guy's uber efficient.
26:33So I agree with you that we're probably not running into a Ladd McConkie 29% target share type of season.
26:39He has to win with efficiency, but that is what his game is.
26:43And I think in a Mike McDaniel's offense where maybe he's not running 95% of the routes, well, he's going to be
26:50really efficient when he is running routes and he's being targeted downfield and he's making splash plays.
26:55I just don't want to forget what he did his rookie year, 17 games, 91 catches, nearly 1350 yards and eight touchdowns.
27:01Five guys hit that number last year. Like I still think there is a really high ceiling for Ladd McConkie.
27:07He was wide receiver 10 from weeks eight through 17 as a rookie.
27:11And he was on a pace for 126 targets without Keenan Allen.
27:15Like that's the biggest thing for me is just you remove Keenan Allen from the equation.
27:20Ladd McConkie I think is easily the guy that takes over those third down conversions, right?
27:24Who's moving the chains. I think that's easily Ladd when it was Keenan Allen last year.
27:29And Keenan Allen is a target vacuum. This is what this guy does.
27:33He takes away from young players and then they're developing and he has to vacuum up all the targets.
27:39The fact that he led the team in targets last year, just it really stunted Ladd's second year boom potential.
27:45And unfortunately, I don't think enough of us kind of reacted to the signing quick enough.
27:50I know that Keenan Allen was a nice target in drafts last year because of his chemistry with Justin Herbert.
27:56I think Ladd's going to bounce back pretty big here.
27:59So maybe it's not a top five type of ceiling.
28:01But I think he can definitely be a fantasy wide receiver one.
28:05Fitzy, target share was kind of meh. First read share was definitely mad.
28:09Do you think the loss of Keenan Allen makes him a boom prospect in drafts this year?
28:14Or is there a little bit bust based on where the cost is going?
28:18I don't know if I see him getting to a 29% target share, even though maybe the Chargers play a lot of
28:2512 and 13 personnel, which does tend to funnel targets to the top wide receiver in an offense.
28:30I also have Ladd wide receiver 19 in my rankings.
28:33So I'm at ADP, but I do have him behind guys like Ted Arone McMillan and T.
28:38Higgins. I guess my concern, what if there's only a small gap between Ladd McConkie and Quinton Johnston?
28:44Because Mike McDaniel is so good at designing the catch and run stuff for his wide receivers.
28:49And that is where QJ just absolutely thrived. But on the other hand, we saw Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell combined for
28:55over 3,000 yards under Mike McDaniel in Miami in 2022.
28:58So there's probably room for both guys to eat.
29:01I guess I do have some other issues with Ladd.
29:04Like it seems like every year he's among the league leaders and getting up slowly after a tackle.
29:09I don't know if baseball, I don't know if Fantasy Points tracks that, but I do think that can be the next stat.
29:16Getting up slowly, expected getting up slowly, and actual getting up slowly.
29:20I like that stat. Yeah, he's not a big guy.
29:23And he did have the great rookie year, but the prospect profile, I guess he got drafted early second round.
29:29That was good. But his last couple of years at Georgia, he averaged maybe 50 yards a game.
29:34He got outshone by Brock Bowers. I like Ladd McConkie.
29:37I don't love him. I tend to be on the bus side of this.
29:41All right. A couple of buss and booms. Those are the first three.
29:45Those are the big three, the big higher names that we talked about.
29:49You guys can, in the comments below, let us know what you think about those.
29:54We are going into our next range. We'll pick up the pace a little bit for these next guys.
29:59But before we do, I want to talk to you guys about Playoff Blitz.
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30:12There's no draft. And nobody owns the players. No player is stuck on one team.
30:16Every week, everybody picks from the same pool. Any quarterback in football, any running back, anybody.
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30:24Burn the stars early or save them for the stretch run.
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30:46That's $39.50 for the whole league, no matter how many entries.
30:49Playoff Blitz. No draft. No hassle. Just fun. Hey, this is Hayes Davenport.
30:53And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
30:57Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a.
31:03The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
31:08Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
31:14We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
31:17Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
31:20How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
31:24Okay. What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
31:30Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
31:35I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
31:38I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
31:41If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
31:45I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
31:48Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
31:54I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity.
31:57Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
32:04You know what I mean? Like, they're like, oh, what's the state?
32:07Everyone's so dumb except for you. Right. Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
32:13I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
32:20Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode.
32:27But he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
32:33I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
32:37If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
32:42So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
32:46Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
32:52You're not hired just to fill time and space.
32:54You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
32:59You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
33:04He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
33:08He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
33:11It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:17Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
33:20But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
33:23What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
33:29Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
33:33The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
33:37But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
33:43Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
33:50God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
33:53Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
33:56They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
33:59Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
34:04Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
34:09Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
34:13All right. We are going to Boomer Bus Part 2.
34:16Our second in the Boomer Bus here. And Erickson, we're going to let you kick it off.
34:21This is a very running back-centric Boomer Bus section that we have all got running backs in here.
34:27You guys might be able to guess some of the names because there is a lot of volatility on these markets.
34:33But these are great names to talk about for this show.
34:36So, Erickson, your Boomer Bust, your second Boomer Bust is who?
34:40Bayshel Tootin running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars. RB 25, 59th overall.
34:43Going in our favorite RB dead zone range in those middle rounds.
34:47So, Tootin, to me, is a player that I really like.
34:50And I'll admit, I'm super biased towards him because I met him at the Combine last year and absolutely fell in love with the guy, the attitude.
34:58And when he got taken by the Jaguars, I thought, oh man, that was a smash pick by them.
35:04And I think that he has a ton of potential.
35:07Super, super explosive. And although he didn't really showcase that at all as a rookie, because I think that he was doing
35:13a lot of, okay, don't fumble the ball. And that's kind of why he didn't pop as much during his rookie season.
35:20I think we're going to see growth from him in year two.
35:24I think he's going to be thinking less. I think he's going to be playing more up to what his Combine speed
35:30actually showcased and what he can do. And I just think he can do way more than Chris Rodriguez can do.
35:36For me, Chris Rodriguez is just the ultimate Jag running back.
35:4026-year-old, former six-round pick, who split backfield touches last year with a rookie seventh rounder and Jeremy McNichols.
35:45And Chris Rodriguez may not have sniffed the roster or the lineup if Brian Robinson Jr., again, another player that we kind
35:52of view as a very replaceable level running back, he wouldn't have sniffed the field if Brian Robinson Jr.
35:57was still on the Commanders last season. Rodriguez has also been banged up throughout his NFL career, despite being a part-time player.
36:04And that's just based on the physical style of play he has.
36:07So I know this year he's already been dealing with an injury.
36:11Obviously, he's been back at training camp. But I'm not afraid of Chris Rodriguez in any way, shape, or form.
36:17Like, that's kind of like my starter point here.
36:20But I have to admit that he has a relationship with Liam Cullen.
36:24They brought him in for a reason. And they haven't been too in as the starter.
36:28Chris Rodriguez is the backup. They're going to deploy some type of committee to think to start the season.
36:34And admittedly, I think it could be annoying to start the year.
36:38But in the same way that we kept pounding the table for Chase Brown over Zach Moss, even if it doesn't happen
36:44in week one, if it doesn't happen in week four, the better running back is going to come out on top eventually.
36:51And to me, Basial Tootin is going to come out on top of Chris Rodriguez eventually.
36:56But I just can't guarantee, oh, it's going to be week one.
36:59It's going to be week two. So that's where the boom bust kind of comes in with Tootin, where if you draft
37:06him locked and loaded as your RB2, and you're expecting, hey, he's got to be a top 24 running back out of the gates.
37:13Maybe that doesn't happen. Because Chris Rodriguez is still seeing touches and seeing carries.
37:17And maybe he does get a goal line opportunity here or there.
37:21But I think that when push comes to shove, Tootin will be the guy that you want in this backfield, just a
37:27matter of how patient you can be. So going back to if you draft Basial Tootin, you have to have some backup
37:34answers at running back in case it is a really gross committee to start the year.
37:39Because I don't think Chris Rodriguez is going to be a threat for the entirety of 2026.
37:44But he can definitely be a threat to start the year, which is where the bust potential comes in for Tootin.
37:50Really quick, 250 touches for Basial Tootin. Do you think that's in line with projection?
37:54Do you think that creates him inside the top 20?
37:57Like when you're talking about the boom or bust factor, what's the boom factor relative to 250 touches?
38:03Is it on key? Is it a little less?
38:06Is it more? Like where can he become the boom based on those touch marks?
38:10How many did you say Henderson had last year?
38:13Because that's like where I'm gauging my mind. Okay, so I'll just be more transparent about it.
38:18Henderson was 220 last year and he was a top 20 RB.
38:21Basial Tootin on our projections is around 250 touches between rush attempts and catches.
38:26That's a big number. Chris Rodriguez is around 140 touches.
38:29But those projections on Basial Tootin have him only at like RB 23 on here.
38:33So do a slider. Play a slider here. What is it?
38:36Is it the projection is actually wrong? 250 touches.
38:39Maybe it's the efficiency that makes him. Does he need a few more touches?
38:43Where does Chris Rodriguez play in this? Does Chris Rodriguez need to come down and he needs to go up?
38:49Like what do you think about that when there's a boom factor for Tootin?
38:53I think it's probably going to be backloaded. So I think to start the year, it's going to look really bad potentially.
39:00Like the first four weeks of the season. It's not adequate for you for him to still be like a big boom prospect.
39:07Okay, that's really where I'm getting at. Yeah, because I think too, because going back to how does he win?
39:13He wins with explosiveness and I think he's going to see red zone opportunities like he saw last year as a rookie.
39:19Again, the fact that he took Travis A. Chan off the field as a day three rookie running back.
39:25That says a lot about the team's confidence in that certain player and reminds me again, going back to the Chase Brown.
39:32Chase Brown played as a rookie alongside a healthy Joe Mixon.
39:35They were like, hey, we got to get this guy involved on the field and he didn't have a massive role, but
39:41he still got to play and it didn't take an injury for him to get game action like we saw from Tootin as a rookie.
39:49So very high on the player. And also to get a look at the Jaguar schedule, it's not great to start the year.
39:56It's just going back to the fact that Tootin could really be a second half smash, whereas to start the year, he's
40:02kind of like treading water in a gross committee.
40:05Yeah, Fitzy, what do you think about this? Like, yeah, I mean, Chris Rodriguez is projected like four receptions.
40:11He's just not a receiving down back. Laquan Allen could maybe be in it, but like, I don't know.
40:16I actually look at this and I go, I undersold it, by the way, it's around 260 touches for Tootin, 10 touchdowns as well and around 1200 yards.
40:25I look at that and I feel like we're just underplaying the projection to where he could go.
40:30If Chris Rodriguez only gets around 140 touches, I actually think that's a really good prospect for Basial Tootin to fly.
40:36I would be more worried if you wanted to pull the slider up on touches for Chris Rodriguez ultimately, but I'm on
40:43the upside here where I actually think the projections might be underplaying him and 260 touches, I think is huge for him
40:50with the potential for him to still get to 300.
40:53So I'm going to be on the boom side of this, but what do you think, Fitzy?
40:58I'm going to be on the boom side too.
41:00And Erickson framed this really well. Like the boom side is that you can have the explosive lead back in a Liam Cohen offense.
41:08The bust side is that Chris Rodriguez and Laquan Allen Jr.
41:11could be involved to an annoying degree. So I'm willing to take that risk to go for the boom side here.
41:17The only thing I don't like about Basial Tootin is that he goes in the neighborhood of the draft where there are
41:24a lot of receivers I like, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, the two bears.
41:28But if I started my draft with two running backs, I'm probably not going to take Basial Tootin in the late fifth round.
41:34But if I went with Jamar Chase or Jackson Smith and Jigba or Amon Rossi Brown in the first round, and maybe
41:41I took a premium tight end too, then yeah, I'm probably very interested in getting Tootin as like my second running back late in the fifth.
41:49And that's actually exactly where I'm at. I'm on the opposite.
41:52And I don't love that wide receiver range as much.
41:55I tend to find myself with at least two wide receivers.
41:58So Tootin ends up being like just a great play and I end up having.
42:03So I really like him and he was 59th overall RB 25 on the boom and bust right next to him, though,
42:09is Fitzy's guy, another running back with some huge sky high potential.
42:13But they're, you know, like Basial Tootin, there's some questions around what the usage is going to look like.
42:19So let's talk about your running back, which ends up being your second boomer bus player.
42:23And also my second running back from Notre Dame, rookie running back from Notre Dame, Janarian Price.
42:29This might be one of the biggest boom bust picks in drafts this year.
42:33Like the boom scenario is that Janarian Price fits like a glove in Seattle's run heavy offense, pops right away, becomes the
42:39lead back for Seattle all season, effectively turning Zach Charbonnet into a backup whenever Sharbs comes back from his torn ACL.
42:46And it's not hard to imagine Janarian Price and his skill set fitting perfectly into this outside zone heavy scheme that Seattle
42:52favors and reportedly still will favor under new offensive coordinator Brian Flurry, even though Clint Kubiak has moved on to the Raiders.
42:59The bust scenario is that Price just isn't that good.
43:02And let's face it, the track record for running backs drafted in the later part of the first round, first 12 picks, great track record.
43:09Beyond that, Rashad Penny, anyone? Clyde Edwards-Alaire? So the Seattle backfields maybe becomes a committee if Price isn't that good.
43:15And Zach Charbonnet becomes committee chairman as soon as he gets back.
43:19And basically you're in a spot where you can never start Janarian Price with any confidence.
43:24And here's the thing, the Seattle Seahawks used a two-prong backfield last season with Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker until Sharbs got hurt.
43:30And that was with Walker being really freaking good and having proven that.
43:34We don't know if Janarian Price is anywhere close to Kenneth Walker in talent.
43:38Now, I want to be fair to Price because he was blocked by Jeremiah Lovett, Notre Dame.
43:43He did flash talent in a pretty small sample size, but he hasn't really shown that much pass-catching aptitude.
43:49He's had fumbling issues. He tore his Achilles way back in 2022.
43:53That's an injury that used to be a career wrecker for running backs.
43:56And again, Price does go in the same part of the draft where Tootin goes.
44:01And for me, that's a spot where I love the wide receivers.
44:04And I like Tootin, the safety line is a little bit deeper there.
44:08There is a lot of weird stuff about Janarian Price, especially just there's this committee of running backs that they all like.
44:15We don't know what is just coach speak and whatever.
44:18We do know he's explosive. We've seen that in, was it Hard Knock?
44:22Yeah, everyone's talking like he's just explosive. You can see the speed is out there.
44:26And like, how are they going to utilize that in open field?
44:30But how are they going to utilize that versus this other crew of running backs, especially when Charbonnet comes back?
44:36And I almost kind of keep going back to the, it's like the Travion Henderson thing, though.
44:41It's like if Janarian Price, just using him as a baseline, Henderson had sky-high projections.
44:45But this is a big power offense that if even he can get 220 plus touches, like could he still be top 20?
44:52But is there enough for there to be this huge, massive upside?
44:56His cost is a lot less. I do feel a little finicky about this one, though.
45:01I know there's some big Janarian Price truthers. Erickson, where are you at?
45:05So I also prefer Bechel Tootin to Janarian Price.
45:07If I was going running back in this general range, I think that he has a clear pathway.
45:13And the thing that Fitzy didn't mention as well is what happens when Zach Charbonnet comes back, right?
45:18Does this just become, oh, it's what we did last year.
45:21It's Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet taking away all the red zone opportunities.
45:25So Price is in a weird situation where he really needs to hit early for the Seahawks to have confidence.
45:31Okay, even if we get our guy Zach Charbonnet back, Janarian Price is still going to be our 1A type of running back.
45:38So you're kind of putting a pressure point with Price where he really needs to deliver out of the gates.
45:44And just looking ahead at week one, Patriots, really tough run defense, really strong defensive interior.
45:49So maybe it's more outside zone type of runs and Janarian Price can really flash that type of big head speed.
45:55You're going to see his market move dramatically. It's going to be interesting because I know that we see drafts that take
46:02place the day after the first night of NFL football on that Thursday night.
46:06You're going to see Janarian Price's price probably fluctuate dramatically from RB24.
46:09If he has a massive game, he'll be a top 12 running back, locked and loaded.
46:14Or if he has a terrible game and it's all about Emmanuel Wilson or George Holani taking on larger roles, then Janarian
46:21Price's draft stock is going to tank. So I think that he's going to move a lot.
46:26I think that there is league winning potential with him, but I kind of agree with Fitzy where it's like, I think
46:32there's some other running backs I still like more.
46:35I like the receivers a little bit more. I don't hate his price like in a vacuum.
46:40I do think that blindly looking at a round one running back, kind of going outside the top 24, 70% of running
46:47backs drafted in round one, finish as top 24 options in year one.
46:51So I get the upside case here as well, but I don't necessarily find myself drafting a ton of Janarian Price unless he really falls dramatically.
46:58So there's some booms or some busts on here, but not booms.
47:02Do we have any booms? Is anybody booming? No.
47:05Okay. No booms. Busts around. There you go. All right.
47:08I think the player that I'm going to pick is probably been covered maybe the most on this network.
47:13If we could go back and we could see all the players that we've talked about, this player has definitely been brought
47:20up at least in the top three, but it has always been in a really positive light and it's Jonathan Brooks.
47:26Jonathan Brooks on real-time ADP. I got to be careful about this because it's all over the board everywhere.
47:32People are like, well, he's going in the fifth round and ADP says he's 120 and this and that.
47:38Real-time ADP on fantasy pros, which fantasy pros, real-time ADP.
47:41There's seven-day trends. There's 24-hour trends and it is the most updated across the board for ADP.
47:46Currently has him as RV 29 and he is inside the top 100 at 79 overall.
47:50So I think that's a good marker for it.
47:53Could he be going higher in your league? Yeah.
47:56He could have gone higher in there, but the boom or bust factor I think is pretty apparent.
48:01Whether positively or negatively you take this, it was said earlier this week that assuming Chuba's healthy, that week one there'd be
48:08a 50-50 split on Chuba and Jonathan Brooks. And I saw people victory lapping and talking about it one way or the
48:14other, but one of the things I thought was interesting about the boom or bust case, because I do know and understand
48:21that the ADP still is kind of baking in, still, even though it's not inside the top 25, it's still kind of baking in some of the concerns.
48:29But the narrative around Jonathan Brooks is he is the ultimate league winner.
48:33But when they do throw this at us and they throw that, you know, it's a 50-50 split, I think this ends
48:40up taking you back to what was last year with Chuba and Rico Dowdle.
48:44And Rico Dowdle was able to thrive, obviously, but you don't see that in a lot of like early projections.
48:50Projections have got him just under 800 rushing yards, 200 on the receiving.
48:54So it's actually roughly like a thousand yards even and around six touchdowns.
48:58I think the positive case on Jonathan Brooks, outside of just being like a relatively talented player, is Chuba last year.
49:04The reason he, one of the reasons that his usage went down was because he was hurt.
49:09I mean, Rico Dowdle was efficient and Rico outproduced him, but Chuba was hurt.
49:13And he had that calf strain and it lingered for the year.
49:17He's already got a hamstring strain and that doesn't make me feel much better.
49:21So if that lingers again, that gives up opportunities for Jonathan Brooks.
49:25But on the negative case, you clearly know there's a huge injury history, but also the offensive line I would throw out.
49:31PFF is currently got them 27th in offensive line grade.
49:34That is due to both tackles being hurt. They could return a little bit sooner.
49:39And if you get the tackle returns, that could maybe end up making them like a top 15 offensive line, but you've already got offensive line bang ups.
49:47And I don't think there's a big question. I mean, Chuba Hubbard's got some questionable, like passing down blocking skills, but we've
49:54all seen the video of Chuba just getting laid out and Bryce Young getting hit.
49:58So it's like, are they going to feel comfortable with him in past blocking situations?
50:03Is he, he hasn't looked like insane or anything like that, but he's still getting his feet under him.
50:08Is it a slow roll? So everybody on the planet knows about Jonathan Brooks, but Fitzy, I'd just be curious, the negative take on it.
50:16Cause we've talked so swimmingly positive where in anything I said, or anything else you want to throw.
50:21We also don't have like a whole lot of cool underlying stuff.
50:25Cause he's not out there. He's always hurt. So you've got a bad offensive line.
50:29You've got a 50, 50 split a team in whatever their offense efficiency is going to look like.
50:35It's great that he's going to play in the receiving side, but what do you think about Jonathan Brooks and maybe the bust case for him?
50:42The bust case is that he tore the same ACL twice in a 13 month span and that he has had basically
50:49one season of work since high school. Because he was backing up Bijan Robinson at Texas and didn't get to play meaningful snaps until Bijan left.
50:57So he had one really great year at Texas, then the injury problems, you know, the second ACL tear at Carolina.
51:03And so, I mean, that's the bust side. I feel as good as you could about any player who has torn the
51:09same ACL twice though, because I think Chuba is a replacement level player useful to in an NFL backfield, but he had the really nice season in 2024.
51:18But other than that, four other seasons, pretty, pretty meh.
51:21And I just like, this is going to be Jonathan Brooks' job to lose.
51:25I'm confident enough in him that I took him in the Fantasy Pros in-house league, 16 teams.
51:30I went with a 0B approach. He's my RB1.
51:33I took him 61st overall. Let's go. I mean, I think the big positive.
51:37Ham and egging it at running back in that draft, man.
51:40I'm actually pretty excited to see what that's going to look like then.
51:44I'm not as confident as you that when you say it's just his job to lose, but also the case against the
51:51negative is kind of like he's still not like a top 20 back.
51:55He's not, you know, the cost isn't like what some of the guys with some, Jadarian Price for that matter.
52:01Like he is going cheaper. If the choice is like, hey, take Jadarian Price at RB24 or 25, or you can wait another round and get him there.
52:09Maybe if things move up a little bit though, and he's a top 25, like where's the line for you, Erickson, where
52:16you think the risk is becoming a little too risky for drafts to have that investment?
52:20Or is there just nothing you don't care about any of the offensive line?
52:25Doesn't worry. Chuba, zero worry whatsoever. He's just infallible.
52:27Like, and he is the guy this year. I think if he's being like priced like a top 20 running back, where
52:34you have to lock him in load as a RB2, and this is not in a 16 team league.
52:39Talking about like a 10 team or 12 team league where Jonathan Brooks is not a flex or something like that.
52:46Because I think that's probably where you feel the most comfortable taking him because, yeah, he really hasn't played much NFL football really at all.
52:53But when you look at the upside case, I pulled this yesterday.
52:57Dave Canalis' RB1, those guys, their fantasy finishes over the last three years.
53:01So one in Tampa Bay, two in Carolina. Rashad White was RB7, smashed his ADP.
53:05Chuba Hubbard, RB15, smashed his ADP. Rico Dattel, RB17, smashed his ADP.
53:09So like there's a lot of upside if you get this right.
53:12And to me, what we've heard and read all off season long, the Chuba Hubbard hamstring injury.
53:17Hubbard has broken down at the end of last year, 2024.
53:21Again, part of Hubbard's breakout in 2024 was because Miles Sanders got hurt when he was also seeding snaps to Miles Sanders,
53:27but then Hubbard took advantage of an injury. So I think that Hubbard is going to be the backup here.
53:33And Brooks has got a chance against arguably the worst defense in the NFL in week one to show out and cement against the Chicago Bears defense.
53:41Hey, I'm RB1. You can't take my job. And Chuba, we already saw him lose his job once.
53:47Tariq O'Dowd, a player that the Panthers had nothing invested in.
53:50He had a cheap free agent deal. He was a journeyman running back coming off obviously a strong year with the Dallas
53:57Cowboys, but they had no reason to like feature Dattel.
54:00It was like, well, this guy's good. Like we got to give him the ball.
54:04Whereas with Brooks, it's the same. Head coach that drafted him three years ago or two years ago when, and now he's healthy.
54:11It's like, we took us, we took this guy in the second round.
54:15Like we got to see what this guy can do because his contract's almost up.
54:19So I think it's ride or die with Jonathan Brooks.
54:22Booms, booms. Would you guys rather have Jonathan Brooks or Janarian Price?
54:26Brooks. Well, I said that before. Like if you also give me a round difference, I mean, maybe even I don't care
54:32about the round difference, but if it's like, you know, whatever, six round for Price and seventh round for Brooks or fifth
54:39round for Price and sixth round for Brooks, I think it's like really easy.
54:43Let me ask you this last question. We've really been like soaking in on these boomer busts, but it's fun to have these conversations.
54:50Can Jonathan Brooks be a boom prospect? If he is within 10 carries of Chuba Hubbard and 10 catches of Chuba Hubbard, is that possible?
54:58Like if they're within 10 carry, they're essentially within, let's just call it like 15 touches.
55:03Can Jonathan Brooks be a top 24 running back?
55:05If they, if those two are within 15 touches of each other?
55:09No. If it's a committee, no. I would say carries.
55:12Yes. But catch. Cause like, that's the thing. Brooks can catch the ball.
55:16Like when I look at this receiver room, would it surprise you guys if Jonathan Brooks is third on the team and catches behind Jalen Coker and TMAC?
55:24There's not a lot of running backs. Exactly. So like, there's not a lot of running backs that project as their third team's pass catcher.
55:32And when you look at, if you kind of go through all the depth charts, a lot of those running back to
55:38be, Oh, the Christian McCaffrey, the Bijan, like the elite of the elite.
55:42Whereas Jonathan Brooks, obviously not looked at in that type of way.
55:46The Panthers don't have a lot of depth at pass catcher.
55:49Jalen Coker has also been banged up two years into his NFL career.
55:53If Bryce Young's under pressure, the tackles can't hold up.
55:56What's he going to do? Check the ball down to his running back, running a out of the backfield.
56:01And the reason I said that is because then projections have to be wrong.
56:06And obviously like projections are not infallible either, but projections have to be wrong across the board because that is what we see.
56:13We see Chuba and Jonathan Brooks within about 15 touches of each other, specifically 10 carries and seven catches.
56:18But those catches are in favor of Chuba Hubbard.
56:21So projections have to be wrong if that's the case.
56:24So Jonathan Brooks, very volatile. Love to hear a Z boomer bus this season.
56:28Put it in the comments below. We've got our final boomer bus guys coming up here that we'll be lightning rounding on.
56:35But as you prepare for your fantasy draft, wherever you go, make sure it's with Fantasy Pros.
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56:46can get expert advice powered by rankings from over 100 experts.
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56:52Download the free Fantasy Pros app today at fantasypros.com slash apps and get ready to dominate your draft.
56:58That's fantasypros.com slash apps. All right. The final one here that we're going to be doing is kind of like an overarching one.
57:05We didn't have any restrictions. We can just pick anybody in the top 100.
57:09So we'll do a little bit of lightning round since we've sat on a lot of these players.
57:14This so happens to be a wide receiver centric one.
57:17So let's kick it off with Fitzy. Fitzy, you are going to give us a top 100 boomer bust wide receiver here.
57:24So Carnell Tate, whose ADP is wide receiver 32, 78th overall, top five draft capital.
57:28All the film guys unanimously love him no matter who it is.
57:32Dane Brugler, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, Matt Waldman. They all love it.
57:35D-bro. And I do love the prospect profile, but Tate is a certain type of receiver.
57:40He's a downfield guy. He operates in the intermediate and deeper areas of the field and makes plays on the ball.
57:46I don't think there are going to be a lot of easy button catches for Carnell Tate, where he gets the ball
57:53quickly and makes yardage after the catch. And without those, Tate probably is not going to be a high volume receiver.
57:59Like Jamar Chase, you see the highlights of Chase making big plays downfield.
58:03But if you watch a Bengals game, you see how many times Joe Burrow throws to Chase within five, 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
58:11The Titans have Wondell Robinson for that stuff. And Wondell is really good at it.
58:15And Wondell has also worked extensively with Titans offensive coordinator Brian Dable in the past.
58:20Plus, there are real concerns about whether Cam Ward can make this Titans passing game go.
58:25I think I'm out on Tate at this price, but I want to know what you guys think.
58:30That's a bust. I'm also a bust in this.
58:33Pretty much every case you made, I'm very worried about this offense.
58:36You can argue with a lot of these guys, the ADP could play a little bit of a role in it when
58:43you're into the late 30s on a rookie wide receiver.
58:46But I think a theme of this is like there might be early struggles.
58:50And this is a player to buy for the second half of the season.
58:54If you can see any signs of life, I'm a bust.
58:58Erickson, quickly, where are you at on Carnell Tate?
59:00Boom or bust? Boom. Wide receiver 24 in my rankings.
59:03I'm not going to be dismayed by the preseason because it's games that don't count.
59:08Robert Sala said after their last preseason game, we're running our base vanilla offense.
59:12This is not the offense they're going to be running when they play the Jets in week one.
59:17So I think Carnell Tate is going way too late as a top five draft pick in that same interview.
59:23Shout out to the Coach Speak Index, Greg Branos.
59:26When it's time to game plan and get people to rock, referring to Carnell Tate, we'll get him the rock.
59:32So I think we're going to see his usage bump up a lot when the games actually start to matter and they're
59:38actually running the offense to win games and not to show out in the preseason.
59:43It might be a plain vanilla cone, but I'm not sure I trust Cam Ward to make a banana split for me.
59:50Put that on a shirt. There you go. I'm actually going to do mine and then we'll let Erickson finish this off
59:56here because he's got a really good one. And mine is going to be Marvin Harrison at wide receiver 31-72 overall.
60:02And I'm a Michael Wilson guy. And Marvin Harrison, the more I've stared at this, there's one path for boom.
60:08And it is going to be strictly built around touchdowns at this point.
60:12Michael Wilson has been the target percentage guy, the higher catch rate, first read percentage, 26-22% from first read percentage from Michael Wilson to Marvin Harrison.
60:20Marvin Harrison also ranking around 22%. His 22% was ranked almost bottom 50 in first read percentage for wide receivers.
60:26Bad catch rate drop rate was almost 10% for Marvin Harrison.
60:29And the more that I've looked through this, like I said, I just don't see where the path is going to move
60:36away from Michael Wilson being this awesome high-end target and going into favor of Marvin Harrison, especially with all the early like head case stuff.
60:43Now, Marvin Harrison did have a high target, end zone target rate.
60:47I think it was like 14-9 versus Michael Wilson.
60:50So that might work in that favor. But I am moving in an opposite direction of Marvin Harrison.
60:55Maybe another positive thing would be if this team really does stink and they've got to throw the ball a bunch.
61:01Like if Marvin Harrison does start to click, that's going to work well.
61:05It moves through McBride. It then moves to Michael Wilson.
61:08And I think red zone side is okay for Marvin Harrison.
61:11I just don't see the high-end upside anymore with Marvin Harrison.
61:15So I'm a bust. He's at 31. Maybe it's at least not in the top 24, but regardless of the ADP, I
61:21think these guys are flipped and they're flipped in the wrong direction as far as cost.
61:26Erickson, boom or bust? Marvin Harrison? I think that he's fine.
61:29I haven't basically ranked where his ADP is. I'm actually more on the Michael Wilson bust side of things.
61:35The fact that he basically never got targeted when Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:39was healthy last year. I mean, his target rate per outrun was higher than Trey McBride's when Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:45was out of the lineup last year. And I know it's a new offense and they're playing different roles.
61:50So maybe that's going to kind of make the margin a little bit smaller.
61:54But I think that Michael Wilson is going to be third in the target pecking order overall.
62:00And attached to an offense led by potentially Carson Beck that's more run heavy and not throwing 50 times per game.
62:06That concerns me. I mean, about any of the Cardinals offensive players.
62:09Fitzy, boom or bust? Marvin Harrison? Oh man, I'm conflicted.
62:12I'm leaning bust. The Cardinals passing volume is going to plummet.
62:16They led the league in pass attempts last year and in sacks.
62:19So like they were way out in front of the league in drop backs.
62:23And that's they just drafted a running back third overall.
62:26So in real time ADP, the two receivers that Marvin Harrison Jr.
62:30is in between are Parker Washington and Carnell Tate.
62:33And that's like he's in purgatory because Parker Washington is like the last receiver I want as one of my fantasy starters.
62:39And Carnell Tate is sort of where the bench guys begin for me.
62:43Guys I want to be backups if I roster them at all.
62:47And I think Marvin Harrison, I probably lean towards not really wanting him to be a starter for me.
62:52You guys like Tate more than Harrison then? Both of you?
62:56No, I like Harrison more than Tate. I would go Tate over Harrison.
63:00Yeah, I'm anti Harrison on that. Fun fact, 13 of Marvin Harrison's 29 career games, he has finished as a top 30 wide receiver.
63:07But only four of those has he ever been a top 12 wide receiver.
63:11So upside is a little bit like meh to me.
63:14All right, the final one here. This is a really good name.
63:18He has snuck himself inside the top 100. Andrew Erickson, the final boomer bust.
63:22I mean, maybe this is the poster child. I think that's the word I was looking for earlier in the episode.
63:28Like neighbors is fun. Jeremiah Love is fun. But you want true boomer bust.
63:32Here is your poster child for it. Andrew Erickson, the ninth boomer bust player is who?
63:37It's got to be Dazon Stribbling. Wide receiver 40, 90th overall or 98th overall.
63:41So sneaking, like you said, into the top 100.
63:44He was the first guy put in the show sheet when you sent over, hey, we need the names.
63:50I was like, lock in Stribbling because his price is going up and what he's been getting in the preseason.
63:5622 routes run, 13 targets, 59% target rate per run.
63:59So I'm not as concerned about like Carnal Tate and his preseason usage because he's a top five pick.
64:04He's going to get targets. But with a guy like Stribbling, you do kind of want to weigh in a little bit
64:11more of the preseason just to understand, OK, is this guy going to actually get the rock at all?
64:16When we have Mike Evans and Christian McCaffrey and Debo Samuel out there.
64:20So that's something that you have to keep in context with Stribbling is he's getting all these targets when most of those guys aren't playing.
64:28But he has been playing with the starters, including Brock Puri.
64:31So I think that does move the needle a little bit towards the upside case because the biggest knock on Stribbling coming
64:38out as a prospect was his lack of target share, right?
64:41Because I think that there's actually a lot to like about his prospect profile.
64:45I wrote about him before the draft about how he's a kind of like a fun sleeper player that I think he
64:52might go higher than the NFL draft community was thinking.
64:55Now, didn't think he was going to go 33rd overall.
64:58That really blew expectations out of the water. But if he had been like a third round pick, it would have been fine where he went.
65:05And I would just probably be viewing him as like, yeah, man, I really like this guy's a sleeper.
65:11I thought that he wasn't really overdrafted. I think the 49ers made a good pick for once.
65:16And I'd probably be like all about him. But for some reason, I kept like weighing it back in my mind would
65:23go, they overdrafted him so he can't be that good when I think that he's been checking more boxes than not.
65:29But it's just a matter of, OK, when push comes to shove, when Kittle and Evans, Debo and CMC, is he going
65:36to get the same type of targets? Probably not.
65:38But at the same time, at least showcasing that if somebody goes down, which seems more probable than not based on the
65:45fragility of this 49ers offense, that Stribbling can at least step up.
65:48So I think the last point with Stribbling is it doesn't need to be he has to be a superstar or he has to be a total bust.
65:57When he came out of Ole Miss, I kind of comped him to Romeo Dobbs, who's just a player's like just like good.
66:04Like he's not like the superstar, but he's not a total like waste of a pick.
66:09So I think that's the thing with Stribbling that I just kind of want to be clear about.
66:14It's I think that he can have an OK role in this 49ers offense and be decent for fantasy when he's put
66:20into a situation where he will get targets because I think he has yards after the catch ability.
66:26He was efficient over two yards per round run over his last two seasons in college.
66:31So there's enough to like about him, even without the target share being elite at the college level.
66:36The 49ers are at least saying, hey, when you're on the field, like we will get you opportunities.
66:41And this is a scheme to obviously bet on led by Kyle Shannon, high powered offense.
66:46So again, there's a price where you got to say no to Stribbling, I think.
66:51But still, wide receiver 40. He's a bench player with a lot of upside.
66:55Yeah. I think he's toeing the line. He's toeing the line of where the risk is coming in.
67:00And I think the biggest point is like when all the other pieces are healthy, where can he thrive?
67:06I think he can just be a retread of Juwan Jennings in this offense.
67:10So I'm a little bit indifferent. I'd kind of would like to be on the fence like Fitzy was trying to be
67:17on one of those where I'm like, I don't know if he's boomer.
67:21But I got to be honest with you, is it even a 49er fan?
67:25I think it's hard to say he's going to be a boom prospect at wide receiver 40 in the 49ers offense when
67:31there's Kittle and there's Mike Evans and there's Christian McCaffrey.
67:34I don't really know what that looks like unless they're all out.
67:38And if they're all out, he's a boom prospect.
67:41So I'm actually going to go on bust for this one.
67:44Fitzy quickly on Stribbling, boomer bust. Yeah. Debo Samuel too.
67:47That's my concern. And that's why I have him ranked below consensus, even though I keep moving him up.
67:53But good Lord, do I have a case of FOMO here?
67:56Because man, you watch him and he is big and he's fast and his hands look like freaking suction cups.
68:02He looks like Spider-Man catching balls in these preseason games.
68:05But yeah, I mean, what if like if I knew that the electrical substation was going to be laying claim to Mike
68:11Evans soft tissue all year, I would want to be drafting Dejan Stribbling.
68:15But right now it's hard to see a path for him to be a guy you can count on in your starting lineup every week.
68:23Well, you guys can let us know in the comments below who are your favorite boomer bust prospects.
68:28What did you think about the ones that we picked?
68:31These are guys that a lot of questions around.
68:34You can kind of make the cases and we tried to pick the sides, but let us know what you guys think.
68:40Make sure you guys are also locked in on the YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasy pros.
68:45If you're listening on the podcast or inverse, if you got to take us on the go, you can always take us
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69:02So make sure to take fantasy pros with you wherever drafts are, because we can be there for you.
69:08That's going to do it for Fitzy and Erickson.
69:10I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys for hanging out.
69:13Good luck in your drafts. And we'll talk to you next time right here on fantasy pros.
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