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9 Boom-or-Bust Fantasy Football Players You Need to Know Before Your 2026 Draft (Ep. 2152)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 12 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 26, 2026
Published
Wed, August 26, 2026
14
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Ladd McConkeyMalik NabersMarvin Harrison Jr.Braelon AllenCarnell TateChris RodriguezChuba HubbardJadarian PriceJeremiyah LoveJonathon BrooksMichael Wilson
Player analysis

Player insights

14

Braelon Allen

PositiveSleeper57:20

Erickson views Braelon Allen as a player with significant potential and explosive ability. Although his rookie season was muted by a focus on ball security, growth is expected in year two. While he may start the season in a committee with Chris Rodriguez, Allen is expected to eventually emerge as the superior back in the Jacksonville offense.

Insight page

Carnell Tate

NegativeProjection95:24

The source is bearish on Tate at his WR32 ADP, arguing he is a downfield specialist who lacks the high-volume, easy-catch profile needed for consistent fantasy production. Concerns exist regarding Cam Ward's ability to support the passing game and competition from Wan'Dale Robinson.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeBust58:56

The source views Chris Rodriguez as a replaceable, part-time player who is not a threat to Braelon Allen's long-term outlook. Despite a potential committee role early in the season, Rodriguez is not a receiving-down back and has a history of being banged up. He is projected for roughly 140 touches compared to Allen's 260.

Insight page

Chuba Hubbard

PositiveRole80:01

The source views Hubbard as a replacement-level player who is vulnerable to losing his job to Jonathan Brooks. Hubbard's 2024 breakout was partially injury-aided, and he is currently dealing with a lingering hamstring issue. The source expects him to be the backup once Brooks is fully integrated.

Insight page

Jadarian Price

NegativeRole70:23

Price is a high-variance boom-or-bust prospect. The boom case involves him fitting Seattle's outside-zone scheme as a lead back, while the bust case involves him failing to secure the role over Zach Charbonnet or becoming part of a committee. Concerns include his injury history (Achilles), lack of pass-catching usage, and fumbling issues.

Insight page

Jeremiyah Love

NegativeValue3:47

Pat Fitzmaurice notes that while Love is a high-upside talent with a floor comparable to Christian McCaffrey's rookie season (1,086 scrimmage yards), he carries significant risk due to a high-ankle sprain, a tough schedule, and a crowded backfield including Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight. Andrew Erickson adds that rookie RB production is often backloaded, and he prefers other players at Love's current RB15/33rd overall ADP, suggesting managers should monitor him for a potential mid-season trade rather than drafting him at his current price.

Insight page

Jonathon Brooks

PositiveValue78:33

Despite injury concerns (two ACL tears in 13 months), the source views Brooks as a potential league winner. He is currently RB29 (79th overall) on FantasyPros ADP. The source expects him to eventually take the lead role from Chuba Hubbard, noting that previous Dave Canales-led backfields have consistently produced fantasy-relevant running backs.

Insight page

Ladd McConkey

NegativeBust35:59

The source leans toward a bust stance for Ladd McConkey at his current ADP of 19. While he has a floor, the concern is a lack of 'boom' upside. The offense is not expected to funnel a 29% target share to him, which would be required for a WR12-type finish. Furthermore, the presence of Quentin Johnston and Trey Harris could limit his target volume, and his history of playing through injuries remains a concern.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout42:32

Erickson argues for a boom outcome, noting that McConkey is the highest-ranked Chargers wide receiver. Despite his smaller frame and injury history, he is uber-efficient. With Keenan Allen gone, McConkey is expected to take over third-down conversion duties and target-vacuum responsibilities. He showed high-end potential as a rookie, finishing as the WR10 from weeks 8-17.

Insight page

Malik Nabers

NegativeProjection14:33

Andrew Erickson highlights that while Nabers is an elite talent, his current ADP as a top-12 wide receiver (27th overall) is risky given his recovery from a torn ACL and the transition to a new offense under Matt Nagy. Erickson's study of nine receivers who played fewer than 10 games and held a top-12 ADP the following season shows that only three met expectations, while six were busts. Pat Fitzmaurice notes that while Nabers has the upside of a Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua, his success is contingent on quarterback Jackson Dart's development and the team's stated desire to establish the run.

Insight page
NegativeBreakout33:23

Malik Nabers possesses immense talent with an upside comparable to Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua. While there is risk involved—partly due to playing home games on the MetLife turf and not having a top-tier passer—the potential payoff is massive. Managers in competitive leagues should embrace the risk, though those who consider themselves elite managers might choose to shy away.

Insight page

Marvin Harrison Jr.

PositiveBust59:56

The source views Marvin Harrison Jr. as a bust at his current ADP of 31-72 overall, citing a lack of high-end upside, a high drop rate near 10%, and a low first-read target percentage (22%). While he has end-zone target potential, the offense is expected to shift toward a more run-heavy approach under a new quarterback, potentially limiting his ceiling.

Insight page
PositiveUsage99:16

The source identifies Harrison as a bust candidate at his current price, noting that Michael Wilson has outperformed him in target percentage, catch rate, and first-read percentage. Harrison's 22% first-read percentage ranked in the bottom 50 of wide receivers, and he struggled with a nearly 10% drop rate.

Insight page

Michael Wilson

NegativeBust61:26

Andrew Erickson identifies Michael Wilson as a bust candidate, noting that he will likely be third in the target pecking order. Despite his efficiency, the concern is that he is attached to an offense that may become more run-heavy and less pass-reliant than last season's league-leading volume.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

861
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Just attach it to the doorframe, switch it on.
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0:18For safer, more confident travel, visit She's Birdie.com. That's S-H-E-S-B-I-R-D-I-E.com.
0:21What's up friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros. Today we've got the big booms and we've got some busts.
0:26Some players that are not going to work so well.
0:29I don't know, you guys get to decide. Nine boom or bust players.
0:33Probably the most boom or bust with the highs of highs and the lows of lows.
0:38Are you looking for floor? Are you looking for ceiling?
0:41These players could make or break your fantasy season.
0:44And we are all going to be picking some names.
0:47I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice here today for the booms or the busts.
0:52Andrew Andrew Erickson, by the way, when I mentioned booms, my brain is, I'm brain rot now because I immediately went to
0:59the Costco guys and you were like, like Archie, right?
1:02And I'm like, how old are you? Like, what are you talking about?
1:05Like the only booms in the world are the Costco guys.
1:09Yeah. Peek behind the curb before we hopped on the show, took the dog out to do a boom and confirmed big boom.
1:16We're ready to rock. He knew what the show sheet was today.
1:19I forgot that was your dog. I was thinking like Archie in the comics.
1:23That's how old actually I am. At least Pat probably got that.
1:27But yeah, dogs with the big booms and we've got booms and busts here.
1:31Mr. Pat Fitzmaurice. You've got a puppy Erickson. I've got a 55 pound pit bull next.
1:36You want a big boom? No, I am excited about this episode because these are guys we are conflicted on ourselves.
1:42I think we're going to talk it out. Maybe we'll hug it out because yeah, a lot of these guys I've am
1:49presented with these dilemmas and drafts and I'm still not entirely sure which way to go.
1:54So and something interesting about this just before we jump in is like, you know, we've lots of episodes are our favorite targets and our favorite sleepers.
2:02And you guys, if you followed along with our content throughout this draft season, you've heard a lot of like similar names.
2:08You know, you might have watched you might be a Pat Fitzmaurice guy.
2:12I see in the comments people love Pat. They lock in.
2:15They want all the Pat episodes. You probably have had crossover of like, you know, similar things of players that Pat has really liked.
2:23But in a lot of those, unless you have these hyper-focused episodes where it's like, these are the no's and these are the yeses.
2:30You might not have like a diverse conversation around the pitfalls of some of these guys as well, the positives and the negatives.
2:37And that's what we could do here. Like specifically, I've picked a player that is like one of the most popular like breakout sleeper.
2:44They've crossed every line of fantasy at this point of what they can be.
2:48They're targets for everybody. But this we can talk about the positives, but also the negatives.
2:53That is the boomer bus for your team. So that's what we're going to cross into here.
2:58You might hear a couple of names you've heard before.
3:01You might get some different takes on a few players.
3:04These nine players boomer bus, whatever you decide and how we break it down for your fantasy season.
3:09If you guys want to make sure that you are locked into all these players, some of the reference points, make sure you download the fantasy pros app.
3:18You can go to the fantasy pros website where you can access the ranks, the ADP, real-time ADP, and pretty much everything else we're going to be referencing.
3:26So go and do that. Get prepped for your drafts today.
3:29We'll talk more about that. But let's jump into this episode with nine boomers.
3:33We're not going to actually do any more nine booms.
3:36I'll do no more Costco guys stuff. But we do have nine players.
3:40And Pat, you get to start us off here, Fitzy, with your first of your boom or bus players for the 2026 season.
3:47I feel like Jeremiah Love is kind of an appropriate headliner for the show.
3:51And I really want to be fully in on Jeremiah Love.
3:55We saw in his one preseason game just how wildly talented he is, unfortunately, because the Cardinals saw fit to give him 14 touches in his first taste.
4:03Of NFL action. Picked up a high ankle sprain in that game, which can be a complicated injury, as we know.
4:09It's more like a knee injury than an ankle injury.
4:12So Love, right now, ADP, RB15, 33rd overall. Sort of towards the back of the third round.
4:17And I know people are not excited about the Arizona Cardinals offense.
4:21And they do have a pretty tough schedule. But, like, I want to be in on him at this price because we
4:27have seen, over the last 11 seasons, eight running backs taken with top 12 overall picks in the NFL draft.
4:33Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Ashton Gentry.
4:38Those eight guys averaged 1,474 yards from scrimmage and 10.9 touchdowns in their rookie seasons.
4:43Because they're just amazing football players, which is why they were drafted top 12.
4:47Christian McCaffrey, actually, had the worst statistical output of any of those guys.
4:511,086 scrimmage yards, seven touchdowns for the Panthers in 2017.
4:54I feel like that is kind of the floor for Jeremiah Love.
4:57And the ceiling could be a lot higher. I don't buy that.
5:01Like, Tyler Algier is going to cut significantly into the workload of a healthy Jeremiah Love once he's fully healthy and good to go.
5:08And I know people are going to talk about how bad the Panthers are.
5:12But, look, the combined winning percentage of the teams that drafted those eight running backs top 12 the year before they drafted them, 320 was the winning percentage.
5:21Those teams sucked too. So, but of course, you know, that is the reason to fear that he's going into the season
5:27already banged up and that this is a pretty terrible team.
5:31So, I get it. I get it. I'm sort of on the bear side here, but I want to know what you guys think.
5:38Do you ever see those videos where, I mean, I'll be honest with you, it might be the thing I hate the
5:44most, but sometimes I mentally engage where someone, you know, will tweet something and then there's actually no information.
5:50They'll be like, we all know who this person looks like.
5:53And then there's just nothing. It's just like, you know, baiting us to engagement baiting.
5:58But I saw one of those with Jeremiah Love and then they were just like, can we all agree we know who he looks like running?
6:06And I'm like, I'm like, I'm all like pissy.
6:08I'm like, come on, dude, stop trying to engage.
6:11And then I like watch a little bit more and I'm like, but he does kind of look like Adrian Peterson here.
6:17And then I click on it and I see everyone doing it and I'm like, ah, nailed it.
6:23And then I'm like, oh, they got me. They got me.
6:26It looked really impressive when he runs out there.
6:29But yeah, you bring up some interesting points. They like their other backs.
6:33It only took 14 carries for him to get banged up.
6:36The team is going to be really bad. Luckily, one of the things that he's going to be able to help in is on the receiving side.
6:44But I'm really torn. This is, to me, this is a little bit on the cost side.
6:49I think the cost is important in talking about the level of boom or bust he is because it's like a really high price.
6:56It reminds me a little bit of like Travion Henderson in that like he could still be good, you know, and he
7:03still can probably put up like top 20 ish RB range.
7:06But is he going to be able to have the boom?
7:09And that's where I'm really not sure. And I don't know if the equity makes enough sense.
7:15I think I feel like there's a lot of negatives right now.
7:18Erickson, do you play any positives? What side of the boom or bust are you on for Jeremiah Love?
7:24I think I'm more on the bust side. And that's not to say he's going to be dramatically underwhelming as RB 15.
7:30I think that Fitz pointed out with the draft capital of those running backs that Love is probably more of a floor play in year one.
7:38And it sounds weird to kind of talk about that.
7:41But 78% of running backs drafted inside the top 12 have been a top 12 fantasy football option in year one.
7:47So when it all the dust settles on the Cardinal season, I think Jeremiah Love's probably going to finish anywhere between RB 12 and RB 15.
7:55Kind of where he's going in being drafted. But I think the thing that you want to get right as a fantasy
8:02manager when you draft him is as a rookie running back, this production is more likely to be backloaded than frontloaded.
8:08That's what we see all the time. So with Love, he's a player that look, I'm probably not going to draft him.
8:15I like running backs more in his range, like wide receivers more in his range.
8:19But he's someone that I still want to watch and monitor as the season progresses.
8:24To like trade for. Exactly. And I think that's really a good thing to really take away from this episode as we go through these players.
8:31Because boom or bust is not, okay, this guy hit for 17 straight weeks.
8:36Most fantasy players are very inconsistent. And it's an up and down journey.
8:39And I think the perfect example of this is a guy like Jameson Williams.
8:44Last year, bust. First nine weeks, terrible. Second half of the season, league winner.
8:48Right? So Jeremiah Love could fall up into that category.
8:51And I say this now, and you could think, oh, well, no one's going to trade away Jeremiah Love.
8:56Everybody knows it. People dropped Jameson Williams last year because he was doing absolutely nothing.
9:01And he was a big disappointment. So that's the thing to keep an open mind about a player like Jeremiah Love.
9:07Even if you don't draft him, still monitor him.
9:10Because the other thing to point out about the Cardinals, Nathaniel Hackett, that guy is just a red flag for fantasy football.
9:17It's Mike LaFleur's offense, though. Come on. If that guy's in the meetings, if he's doing, again, I don't want him on a team.
9:24Like, get him, if he gets fired, boom, buy all Cardinals.
9:27Like, that's exactly what you want to do. To paint a picture of a positive note with Nathaniel Hackett, he did do something well with Brie Saul.
9:35Brie Saul was RB2 during Nathaniel Hackett's one year as the Jets' offensive coordinator in 2023.
9:40And that was because of receiving. If Love is going to bury you, it's going to be because of the receiving usage.
9:46Because I have concerns about the touchdown equity he has because of Tyler Auger, because of Bam Knight.
9:52These are guys that they've used at the red zone in the goal line before.
9:56Trey Benson got cut. James Conner is another player that they trust in the red zone.
10:01So if Jeremiah Love doesn't score double-digit touchdowns, is he going to bury you?
10:05And I would say no. So that's why I'm okay not drafting him at the RB, back-end fantasy RB1 range, and maybe
10:12betting on, okay, slow start out of the gates.
10:14Maybe I can trade for him if I need a running back, because I know his production is more likely to be back-loaded.
10:21The only thing I just wanted to throw in, and Pat, you can go on this, and then I want to do
10:28some over-unders for you guys real quick, though. It's like, I do think, though, that Jeremiah Love is a bust for a
10:35very specific set, or maybe not even so specific, but a wide range of types of fantasy owners.
10:40Like, you have to, I think, navigate, and you kind of alluded to this.
10:44Like, you've got to be able to navigate bad weeks.
10:47You've got to be able to understand if you took Jeremiah Love, you've got to have backup plans to cover yourself.
10:53And, like, that type of navigation can work for, like, super hardcore fantasy owners sometimes.
10:58But you might have, and I'm not, you know, you might have people that are tuning in now that are a little bit more casual and whatnot.
11:06I think it just takes a lot more navigation to potentially make him work, especially early on.
11:11And that might not be as ideal. Is the upside truly worth the navigating that you've got to do for him?
11:17And I tend to think that that might not be the case in this year one, that it's just the juice is not worth the squeeze.
11:25Yeah. Erickson makes a good point about the, you can put up good numbers.
11:29Ashton Gentry was a great example last year. Um, the overall number's pretty good by the end, but it was not a smooth season.
11:36It was very backloaded production. And, uh, you know, if, if you were an Ashton Gentry stakeholder last year, oh, great that
11:43he finished the season strong after you opened the season one and five.
11:47And we're kind of buried. That's exactly what I'm, yeah.
11:50Yeah. And, um, so I just took, I just took Jeremiah Love in a home league, uh, picking 309 last week.
11:56And I, um, I had fired up with Jackson Smith and Jigba and Kenneth Walker in the first two rounds.
12:02The fourth round, I decided to just take, uh, DeAndre Swift.
12:05Like, I, I kind of did not want to mess with the, I wanted to safeguard against the slow start and possibly
12:12some missed time early on for Jeremiah Love. Now, the sacrifice I had to make, uh, I wanted to like load up
12:19on wide receiver in the fifth and sixth round.
12:21I didn't get to take the, the premium tight end.
12:24I would have liked to. So that, that was the sacrifice, but I did sort of safeguard myself there.
12:30Um, and by the way, earlier, I think I said, I might've leaned toward the bearish side on Jeremiah Love.
12:36I live in Chicago and I don't know the difference between bears and bulls.
12:40I'm at bull side. Okay. Um, 220. Those are touches over under for Jeremiah Love.
12:45Pat. Over. Erickson. Over. 230. Keep going. Still over.
12:47Oh, I was just going to go up by tens.
12:50I don't know if I'm going to be able to stop.
12:53Okay. Two 50. Two 50. I would probably say, oh, I mean, I would probably put them around 250, 275 touches.
13:00I don't know what the projections have him, but that's.
13:03He's projected at around 280. And the reason I bring that up was Travion Henderson.
13:07This might be a case for him. Travion Henderson last year had around 220 touches and was able to pull out.
13:14I believe it was RB 19 or 17, uh, numbers, even though it felt very kind of wonky and that was low touches.
13:20So that again, whether I don't know if it's a boom or bust case, but he's projected this year for like 60
13:27more touches than Travion Henderson got last year. But obviously the offense is way worse.
13:31And in fairness, Travion Henderson was a platoon back in college.
13:35He shared time with Quinshawn Judkins at Ohio state, whereas Jadarian price kept another first round pick on the bench at Notre Dame.
13:42Yeah. Well, this is just more about like if they actually were to stay true to the word of that, they're going to use like multiple backs.
13:50And if Jeremiah love were to be used in a 15 touch way, you know, that's not necessarily going to happen.
13:56Projections are not saying that's going to happen, but they have been trying to tell us that.
14:01He just turns into a Roblox character and just falls apart.
14:04So that's the interesting case on it. So boom or bust Jeremiah love you guys can let us know.
14:10Uh, number two, these are kind of higher in ones.
14:13Erickson. I actually think this might be, uh, you guys pick the two best.
14:17You guys got to the sheet even before I made the sheet and you guys did it before.
14:23I think you guys pick the two like best, like, uh, uh, the names that should be the front face of this episode.
14:29Jeremiah love is one and Erickson number two that you have here.
14:33I think is the other one. Malik neighbors wide receiver, 11, 27th overall in the real time ADP.
14:38And looking at neighbors this season, we all know the upside case for him as the elite talent.
14:44And we're lucky. Me and Fitz are lucky that we got Malik neighbors in the Canes classic when we did at the
14:50end or the beginning of the fourth round in a 14 team draft, right?
14:55As we got the first positive news about neighbors in any capacity that he wasn't going on the pup.
15:00And ever since that report, it's only been positive about Malik neighbors and coming back from his torn ACL injury that it
15:07seemed complicated in the cleanup procedure, but it's all been mostly positive.
15:10Again, it's still not Malik neighbors full go. He's still kind of like checking off the boxes.
15:15Okay. Like now he's not in the non-contact jersey.
15:18Now he's in team drills. So it's progressing well, and that's obviously contributing to his skyrocketing ADP basically as a back end
15:25second round pick as a top 12 wide receiver.
15:27So there are still question marks about, okay, well, when do we actually see elite Malik neighbors come back to play for the New York Giants?
15:35Does that take four weeks? Is there a ramp up period when he actually has to turn around his type of production?
15:42I do want to point out too, that in 2025, not his rookie year, he didn't have like this super elite production, 12 points per game.
15:50He was wide receiver 14 in points per game, 24% target share, just 68 receiving yards per game.
15:55So that's something that I did want to kind of point out.
15:59I know that we're all reflecting on neighbors rookie year, and that's really the upside case with him.
16:04He was a target machine. This is a brand new offense with Matt Nagy.
16:08Again, we're throwing shade in Nathaniel Hackett, Matt Nagy.
16:11He deserves a lot of shade too, because he did not help the Chiefs offense whatsoever, and they were happy to let him walk.
16:18So how good is this Giants offense with Jackson Dart entering his second season?
16:22How often are they throwing the football? I know they've been very vocal under John Harbaugh about we want to establish the run.
16:29We have a ton of different running backs. We want to get involved.
16:33And I do think that there is a sense of not blind optimism in Malik neighbors coming off of this injury, but
16:39I did some ADP kind of digging to look at, okay, what other receivers have kind of followed this path where you
16:46have a top 10 season, you play less than 10 games, and then what do you do that following season?
16:52So wide receivers who play fewer than 10 games, an ADP of wide receiver 12 or higher the following season.
16:58There are nine of them. Three of them met expectations.
17:01So basically finished as a back-end fantasy wide receiver one, where the other six receivers were either small or big misses.
17:07So my big takeaway from kind of doing this ADP study was, yes, Malik neighbors can reach his wide receiver 11, wide
17:14receiver 12 ADP, but for him to be a super, super smash, I don't know if that's actually going to happen with
17:20him in 2026 based on the fact that he's coming off an injury, based on the fact that he's playing with a new quarterback.
17:28He barely played with Jackson Dart last year because Jackson Dart was the backup and they only played one game.
17:34It happened to be the game that Malik neighbors also got injured in.
17:37And so that's where I kind of get concerned about what the actual upside for him this season is.
17:43I'm not super enthralled with the offense. So that's kind of my take with Malik neighbors as a boomer bus player.
17:49And again, I'm going back to the point when I got, when we got him where we did Fitz and I like
17:56at that point it was all upside, but now you're paying a lot and you're taking him over a lot of other great players.
18:03When I could see a scenario where, yeah, the first month of the season, he isn't a difference maker.
18:09And maybe it does take half of a year for him to really get back under speed.
18:14So what do you guys think Malik neighbors? Are you in?
18:17Is it just, Hey, don't care. Bet on the upside.
18:20Cause again, I don't think he's a bad pick where he goes because of the upside he can offer, but I'm just
18:27trying to be realistic of setting expectations of what we're actually going to see him put on the field.
18:32Yeah. I like that you had different cases beyond, beyond the injury.
18:36Cause as you started, I was just sitting here thinking like, is this just based around the injury?
18:41And that's something I become a little injury agnostic.
18:44Sometimes when we get into drafts, like if a player's out there, like I will understand the draft history, but if they
18:51are just so talented, a lot of Christian McCaffrey, like I'm just going to, I'm going to kind of blind her sometimes
18:57because that talent, when that, that talent at any type of discount is too much for me.
19:02But you know, you make some interesting cases as far as like what the production could look like coming off of the injury.
19:09There's some questions in the offense. The only thing I kind of keep coming back to is like, I think, I mean,
19:16he is the force of this offense. I think we're, we're pretending to be like, well, they've got other options and stuff like that.
19:23And it's a new offense, but it's like, we just know it is going to be 70% first read.
19:29I loosely say, of course it's not going to be, but it's like, this is Malik neighbors, his offense.
19:34He's the number one in this offense fits you tell me differently.
19:38Like I tend to still just think the, the bus side is attached to injury, but maybe that injury is more of
19:44a lingering injury through the rest of the season and he can't thrive.
19:48But do you think there are scenarios where Malik neighbors is on the field and he does become a bus based on this really high cost?
19:56Yeah. If Jackson dart turns out to be not a great passer and he surprised me, he was better than I thought
20:03last year, especially considering he didn't have Malik neighbors, but I also don't expect him to join the Drake may Joe burrow category as a passer either.
20:11So that that's kind of an issue. Um, you know, he's got to play home games on that infernal turf, uh, that they've got it at met life.
20:19Um, but yeah, the upside here is something close to Jamar chase Puka Nikua.
20:23Like Malik neighbors is that talented. Um, and I just, you know, when Erickson and I got him 43rd overall at that
20:30point, we thought it was still possible. He'd go on the pop, but we were drafting in a 14 team league against
20:36people like Ian Harditz of Roto wire and rich rebar of sharp football and 11 other people who study fantasy football for a living.
20:44I think that should almost be part of your calculation as to whether you're interested in Malik neighbors, like the level of
20:50competition in your league, you know, weakness loves risk and strength loves certainty.
20:54Like if you are going against a bunch of strong players and you're not necessarily one of the, you know, top dogs
21:01in your league, go for it, man. Like embrace that risk of Malik neighbors because the payoff could be massive.
21:07But if you feel like you are one of the smartest managers in your league, then maybe you shy away from Malik
21:13neighbors because there is risk here for sure. So Erickson, you are a boom or a bust?
21:18I'm on the, the bust side here. I don't think that he's going to have a top five season.
21:24Okay. You may, I mean, I knew you made the case.
21:27I just didn't know if you bought it, if you were fully bought into it.
21:32Uh, Fitzy boomer bust on neighbors. Oh man, I'm squarely on the fence.
21:36Welsh. Oh, you have to pick one. You're going to fall on one side.
21:40You have to pick one. I mean, I'm, I have him basically at this ADP.
21:44I guess I'll say boom. Okay. Boom. I'm going to also boom, but I, that's fair to say that you're like right
21:51in the middle of it, but I'm also going to boom on Malik neighbors.
21:55All right. Let's look at mine. And my player is Lad McConkie.
21:59Ladd McConkie coming in at wide receiver 19 overall 40, not quite as sexy as the big names that you guys put on.
22:06I think there's a few other names that could have been thrown around in the boomer bus.
22:11And by the way, this category of the first player, we wanted to kind of this one, at least be hyper-focused on the higher end guys.
22:18But I feel like there's been just a, like a lot of positive conversation around Lad and he's starting to creep up in a lot of drafts.
22:26We're using real-time ADP as well for this. And he is at 19.
22:30And I think, I think there's a case on both sides.
22:34I think I do lean a little bit more on the bus side as I was looking through.
22:39And this was one of the reasons I picked him as well.
22:43Look at the last two years, 2024 was wide receiver 12 and half PPR last year was wide receiver 29.
22:49I mean, I think that is like a proven, like right there, boomer bust ability.
22:53He kind of sits in the middle this year when he comes in at wide receiver 19.
22:58Looking at a few things, Lad stats last year, 66 catches, 789, six touchdowns.
23:02Interestingly, wide receiver 19 last year, 63 catches, 938, six touchdowns.
23:06That was wide receiver 19. So pretty relatively close, except the yards are really missing.
23:10But my big problem has been what Lad is on this offense.
23:14And everybody's focused on this hyper high end stuff.
23:16But Lad, at least last year, was third on the team in first read percentage, 20.4%.
23:21Obviously, Keenan Allen is gone, who, by the way, was the lead in first read percentage.
23:26But this is kind of go back to an Erickson case.
23:29I feel like a lot of people, if you're just assuming Lad is going to be the big boom because Keenan Allen
23:36is there, is not playing in at all that Trey Harris is going to have some type of a force in this offense.
23:43Projections on Lad this year, 79 catches, 1000 yards, run 6.8 touchdowns.
23:46That's projected around wide receiver 22. The projected wide receiver 22 from last year, I believe, or actually the projected wide receiver 24 this year is T.
23:54Higgins at 70 catches, 965, and nine touchdowns. So what I'm giving you there with the projections for him and for the other positionals is there's a floor.
24:03But I guess my big case about Lad is I just don't think there's the boom up or the, yeah, the boom upside here.
24:10Mike McDaniel's offense over the last four years with Miami, but Tyreek Hill was the only wide receiver to have an over like 23% target share.
24:18And it was only two of the four years.
24:20He had like 28 and 31%. Otherwise, all of those years, guys like Jalen Waddell were sitting around the 20s.
24:26So he doesn't have, I think, big feed percentages in those offenses.
24:30The second wide receiver was around 20 to 23.
24:33So my boom case is I think you have to take the slider and you've got to pull it up to around
24:39a 29% target share for Lad McConkie to be an actual boom.
24:43I'm not even sure that he's a great floor play at this point.
24:47If you got that 29% target share, I think that can get him to a wide receiver 12, which he was in 2024.
24:54I don't think the offense speaks to it. I don't think they want to go with it with the other options.
25:00And he didn't do it last year. Maybe he gets up to 22% and Quentin Johnston goes up to 19%.
25:06And then Trey Harris starts to take some of that over.
25:09I think the case where everybody is pushing him up into the teens and he's the big, massive target.
25:15Someone just shared actually a draft that they just put together and they had taken Ladd over Zay Flowers and they had taken him over Tee Higgins.
25:23And I just don't, I don't buy it. So I think I understand the floor is in there.
25:28It's not as sexy as the other ones, but I'm making the case.
25:32I think there is boom or bust and how people are drafting Ladd McConkie.
25:36And I'm leaning a little bit more on the bust side just because I don't think the target share in the offense
25:43is going to center around him enough to get that 2024.
25:46I think it's gone. Erickson, I don't even remember where you at or Ladd, but what do you think?
25:52Boom or bust on Ladd McConkie? I'm more on the boom side of Ladd.
25:56I think that just when you were even as a Trey Harris guy, I like Trey Harris.
26:01I think that he's a great sleeper, but I still have Ladd ranked highest out among the Chargers wide receivers.
26:07Like if I'm going to make a bet on who I think would be the most to benefit from this Mike McDaniel
26:14led offense with Justin Herbert, the fact that Ladd is healthy was not healthy.
26:18I think last year, I think he was playing through a lot of injuries and that is part of his profile.
26:24His smaller wide receiver, he does get banged up and that was very true at Georgia, but was also true at Georgia
26:31and during his rookie year, the guy's uber efficient.
26:33So I agree with you that we're probably not running into a Ladd McConkie 29% target share type of season.
26:39He has to win with efficiency, but that is what his game is.
26:43And I think in a Mike McDaniel's offense where maybe he's not running 95% of the routes, well, he's going to be
26:50really efficient when he is running routes and he's being targeted downfield and he's making splash plays.
26:55I just don't want to forget what he did his rookie year, 17 games, 91 catches, nearly 1350 yards and eight touchdowns.
27:01Five guys hit that number last year. Like I still think there is a really high ceiling for Ladd McConkie.
27:07He was wide receiver 10 from weeks eight through 17 as a rookie.
27:11And he was on a pace for 126 targets without Keenan Allen.
27:15Like that's the biggest thing for me is just you remove Keenan Allen from the equation.
27:20Ladd McConkie I think is easily the guy that takes over those third down conversions, right?
27:24Who's moving the chains. I think that's easily Ladd when it was Keenan Allen last year.
27:29And Keenan Allen is a target vacuum. This is what this guy does.
27:33He takes away from young players and then they're developing and he has to vacuum up all the targets.
27:39The fact that he led the team in targets last year, just it really stunted Ladd's second year boom potential.
27:45And unfortunately, I don't think enough of us kind of reacted to the signing quick enough.
27:50I know that Keenan Allen was a nice target in drafts last year because of his chemistry with Justin Herbert.
27:56I think Ladd's going to bounce back pretty big here.
27:59So maybe it's not a top five type of ceiling.
28:01But I think he can definitely be a fantasy wide receiver one.
28:05Fitzy, target share was kind of meh. First read share was definitely mad.
28:09Do you think the loss of Keenan Allen makes him a boom prospect in drafts this year?
28:14Or is there a little bit bust based on where the cost is going?
28:18I don't know if I see him getting to a 29% target share, even though maybe the Chargers play a lot of
28:2512 and 13 personnel, which does tend to funnel targets to the top wide receiver in an offense.
28:30I also have Ladd wide receiver 19 in my rankings.
28:33So I'm at ADP, but I do have him behind guys like Ted Arone McMillan and T.
28:38Higgins. I guess my concern, what if there's only a small gap between Ladd McConkie and Quinton Johnston?
28:44Because Mike McDaniel is so good at designing the catch and run stuff for his wide receivers.
28:49And that is where QJ just absolutely thrived. But on the other hand, we saw Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell combined for
28:55over 3,000 yards under Mike McDaniel in Miami in 2022.
28:58So there's probably room for both guys to eat.
29:01I guess I do have some other issues with Ladd.
29:04Like it seems like every year he's among the league leaders and getting up slowly after a tackle.
29:09I don't know if baseball, I don't know if Fantasy Points tracks that, but I do think that can be the next stat.
29:16Getting up slowly, expected getting up slowly, and actual getting up slowly.
29:20I like that stat. Yeah, he's not a big guy.
29:23And he did have the great rookie year, but the prospect profile, I guess he got drafted early second round.
29:29That was good. But his last couple of years at Georgia, he averaged maybe 50 yards a game.
29:34He got outshone by Brock Bowers. I like Ladd McConkie.
29:37I don't love him. I tend to be on the bus side of this.
29:41All right. A couple of buss and booms. Those are the first three.
29:45Those are the big three, the big higher names that we talked about.
29:49You guys can, in the comments below, let us know what you think about those.
29:54We are going into our next range. We'll pick up the pace a little bit for these next guys.
29:59But before we do, I want to talk to you guys about Playoff Blitz.
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30:46That's $39.50 for the whole league, no matter how many entries.
30:49Playoff Blitz. No draft. No hassle. Just fun. Hey, this is Hayes Davenport.
30:53And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
30:57Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a.
31:03The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
31:08Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
31:14We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
31:17Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
31:20How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
31:24Okay. What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
31:30Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
31:35I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
31:38I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
31:41If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
31:45I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
31:48Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
31:54I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity.
31:57Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
32:04You know what I mean? Like, they're like, oh, what's the state?
32:07Everyone's so dumb except for you. Right. Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
32:13I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
32:20Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode.
32:27But he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
32:33I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
32:37If you know me, you know I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
32:42So this podcast lets us uncover those things together through meaningful conversations with fascinating people.
32:46Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
32:52You're not hired just to fill time and space.
32:54You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
32:59You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband, Andrew, was the one.
33:04He was just so unapologetically himself and knew nothing of Hollywood.
33:08He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
33:11It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
33:17Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
33:20But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
33:23What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
33:29Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
33:33The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
33:37But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
33:43Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
33:50God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
33:53Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
33:56They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
33:59Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
34:04Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
34:09Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
34:13All right. We are going to Boomer Bus Part 2.
34:16Our second in the Boomer Bus here. And Erickson, we're going to let you kick it off.
34:21This is a very running back-centric Boomer Bus section that we have all got running backs in here.
34:27You guys might be able to guess some of the names because there is a lot of volatility on these markets.
34:33But these are great names to talk about for this show.
34:36So, Erickson, your Boomer Bust, your second Boomer Bust is who?
34:40Bayshel Tootin running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars. RB 25, 59th overall.
34:43Going in our favorite RB dead zone range in those middle rounds.
34:47So, Tootin, to me, is a player that I really like.
34:50And I'll admit, I'm super biased towards him because I met him at the Combine last year and absolutely fell in love with the guy, the attitude.
34:58And when he got taken by the Jaguars, I thought, oh man, that was a smash pick by them.
35:04And I think that he has a ton of potential.
35:07Super, super explosive. And although he didn't really showcase that at all as a rookie, because I think that he was doing
35:13a lot of, okay, don't fumble the ball. And that's kind of why he didn't pop as much during his rookie season.
35:20I think we're going to see growth from him in year two.
35:24I think he's going to be thinking less. I think he's going to be playing more up to what his Combine speed
35:30actually showcased and what he can do. And I just think he can do way more than Chris Rodriguez can do.
35:36For me, Chris Rodriguez is just the ultimate Jag running back.
35:4026-year-old, former six-round pick, who split backfield touches last year with a rookie seventh rounder and Jeremy McNichols.
35:45And Chris Rodriguez may not have sniffed the roster or the lineup if Brian Robinson Jr., again, another player that we kind
35:52of view as a very replaceable level running back, he wouldn't have sniffed the field if Brian Robinson Jr.
35:57was still on the Commanders last season. Rodriguez has also been banged up throughout his NFL career, despite being a part-time player.
36:04And that's just based on the physical style of play he has.
36:07So I know this year he's already been dealing with an injury.
36:11Obviously, he's been back at training camp. But I'm not afraid of Chris Rodriguez in any way, shape, or form.
36:17Like, that's kind of like my starter point here.
36:20But I have to admit that he has a relationship with Liam Cullen.
36:24They brought him in for a reason. And they haven't been too in as the starter.
36:28Chris Rodriguez is the backup. They're going to deploy some type of committee to think to start the season.
36:34And admittedly, I think it could be annoying to start the year.
36:38But in the same way that we kept pounding the table for Chase Brown over Zach Moss, even if it doesn't happen
36:44in week one, if it doesn't happen in week four, the better running back is going to come out on top eventually.
36:51And to me, Basial Tootin is going to come out on top of Chris Rodriguez eventually.
36:56But I just can't guarantee, oh, it's going to be week one.
36:59It's going to be week two. So that's where the boom bust kind of comes in with Tootin, where if you draft
37:06him locked and loaded as your RB2, and you're expecting, hey, he's got to be a top 24 running back out of the gates.
37:13Maybe that doesn't happen. Because Chris Rodriguez is still seeing touches and seeing carries.
37:17And maybe he does get a goal line opportunity here or there.
37:21But I think that when push comes to shove, Tootin will be the guy that you want in this backfield, just a
37:27matter of how patient you can be. So going back to if you draft Basial Tootin, you have to have some backup
37:34answers at running back in case it is a really gross committee to start the year.
37:39Because I don't think Chris Rodriguez is going to be a threat for the entirety of 2026.
37:44But he can definitely be a threat to start the year, which is where the bust potential comes in for Tootin.
37:50Really quick, 250 touches for Basial Tootin. Do you think that's in line with projection?
37:54Do you think that creates him inside the top 20?
37:57Like when you're talking about the boom or bust factor, what's the boom factor relative to 250 touches?
38:03Is it on key? Is it a little less?
38:06Is it more? Like where can he become the boom based on those touch marks?
38:10How many did you say Henderson had last year?
38:13Because that's like where I'm gauging my mind. Okay, so I'll just be more transparent about it.
38:18Henderson was 220 last year and he was a top 20 RB.
38:21Basial Tootin on our projections is around 250 touches between rush attempts and catches.
38:26That's a big number. Chris Rodriguez is around 140 touches.
38:29But those projections on Basial Tootin have him only at like RB 23 on here.
38:33So do a slider. Play a slider here. What is it?
38:36Is it the projection is actually wrong? 250 touches.
38:39Maybe it's the efficiency that makes him. Does he need a few more touches?
38:43Where does Chris Rodriguez play in this? Does Chris Rodriguez need to come down and he needs to go up?
38:49Like what do you think about that when there's a boom factor for Tootin?
38:53I think it's probably going to be backloaded. So I think to start the year, it's going to look really bad potentially.
39:00Like the first four weeks of the season. It's not adequate for you for him to still be like a big boom prospect.
39:07Okay, that's really where I'm getting at. Yeah, because I think too, because going back to how does he win?
39:13He wins with explosiveness and I think he's going to see red zone opportunities like he saw last year as a rookie.
39:19Again, the fact that he took Travis A. Chan off the field as a day three rookie running back.
39:25That says a lot about the team's confidence in that certain player and reminds me again, going back to the Chase Brown.
39:32Chase Brown played as a rookie alongside a healthy Joe Mixon.
39:35They were like, hey, we got to get this guy involved on the field and he didn't have a massive role, but
39:41he still got to play and it didn't take an injury for him to get game action like we saw from Tootin as a rookie.
39:49So very high on the player. And also to get a look at the Jaguar schedule, it's not great to start the year.
39:56It's just going back to the fact that Tootin could really be a second half smash, whereas to start the year, he's
40:02kind of like treading water in a gross committee.
40:05Yeah, Fitzy, what do you think about this? Like, yeah, I mean, Chris Rodriguez is projected like four receptions.
40:11He's just not a receiving down back. Laquan Allen could maybe be in it, but like, I don't know.
40:16I actually look at this and I go, I undersold it, by the way, it's around 260 touches for Tootin, 10 touchdowns as well and around 1200 yards.
40:25I look at that and I feel like we're just underplaying the projection to where he could go.
40:30If Chris Rodriguez only gets around 140 touches, I actually think that's a really good prospect for Basial Tootin to fly.
40:36I would be more worried if you wanted to pull the slider up on touches for Chris Rodriguez ultimately, but I'm on
40:43the upside here where I actually think the projections might be underplaying him and 260 touches, I think is huge for him
40:50with the potential for him to still get to 300.
40:53So I'm going to be on the boom side of this, but what do you think, Fitzy?
40:58I'm going to be on the boom side too.
41:00And Erickson framed this really well. Like the boom side is that you can have the explosive lead back in a Liam Cohen offense.
41:08The bust side is that Chris Rodriguez and Laquan Allen Jr.
41:11could be involved to an annoying degree. So I'm willing to take that risk to go for the boom side here.
41:17The only thing I don't like about Basial Tootin is that he goes in the neighborhood of the draft where there are
41:24a lot of receivers I like, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, the two bears.
41:28But if I started my draft with two running backs, I'm probably not going to take Basial Tootin in the late fifth round.
41:34But if I went with Jamar Chase or Jackson Smith and Jigba or Amon Rossi Brown in the first round, and maybe
41:41I took a premium tight end too, then yeah, I'm probably very interested in getting Tootin as like my second running back late in the fifth.
41:49And that's actually exactly where I'm at. I'm on the opposite.
41:52And I don't love that wide receiver range as much.
41:55I tend to find myself with at least two wide receivers.
41:58So Tootin ends up being like just a great play and I end up having.
42:03So I really like him and he was 59th overall RB 25 on the boom and bust right next to him, though,
42:09is Fitzy's guy, another running back with some huge sky high potential.
42:13But they're, you know, like Basial Tootin, there's some questions around what the usage is going to look like.
42:19So let's talk about your running back, which ends up being your second boomer bus player.
42:23And also my second running back from Notre Dame, rookie running back from Notre Dame, Janarian Price.
42:29This might be one of the biggest boom bust picks in drafts this year.
42:33Like the boom scenario is that Janarian Price fits like a glove in Seattle's run heavy offense, pops right away, becomes the
42:39lead back for Seattle all season, effectively turning Zach Charbonnet into a backup whenever Sharbs comes back from his torn ACL.
42:46And it's not hard to imagine Janarian Price and his skill set fitting perfectly into this outside zone heavy scheme that Seattle
42:52favors and reportedly still will favor under new offensive coordinator Brian Flurry, even though Clint Kubiak has moved on to the Raiders.
42:59The bust scenario is that Price just isn't that good.
43:02And let's face it, the track record for running backs drafted in the later part of the first round, first 12 picks, great track record.
43:09Beyond that, Rashad Penny, anyone? Clyde Edwards-Alaire? So the Seattle backfields maybe becomes a committee if Price isn't that good.
43:15And Zach Charbonnet becomes committee chairman as soon as he gets back.
43:19And basically you're in a spot where you can never start Janarian Price with any confidence.
43:24And here's the thing, the Seattle Seahawks used a two-prong backfield last season with Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker until Sharbs got hurt.
43:30And that was with Walker being really freaking good and having proven that.
43:34We don't know if Janarian Price is anywhere close to Kenneth Walker in talent.
43:38Now, I want to be fair to Price because he was blocked by Jeremiah Lovett, Notre Dame.
43:43He did flash talent in a pretty small sample size, but he hasn't really shown that much pass-catching aptitude.
43:49He's had fumbling issues. He tore his Achilles way back in 2022.
43:53That's an injury that used to be a career wrecker for running backs.
43:56And again, Price does go in the same part of the draft where Tootin goes.
44:01And for me, that's a spot where I love the wide receivers.
44:04And I like Tootin, the safety line is a little bit deeper there.
44:08There is a lot of weird stuff about Janarian Price, especially just there's this committee of running backs that they all like.
44:15We don't know what is just coach speak and whatever.
44:18We do know he's explosive. We've seen that in, was it Hard Knock?
44:22Yeah, everyone's talking like he's just explosive. You can see the speed is out there.
44:26And like, how are they going to utilize that in open field?
44:30But how are they going to utilize that versus this other crew of running backs, especially when Charbonnet comes back?
44:36And I almost kind of keep going back to the, it's like the Travion Henderson thing, though.
44:41It's like if Janarian Price, just using him as a baseline, Henderson had sky-high projections.
44:45But this is a big power offense that if even he can get 220 plus touches, like could he still be top 20?
44:52But is there enough for there to be this huge, massive upside?
44:56His cost is a lot less. I do feel a little finicky about this one, though.
45:01I know there's some big Janarian Price truthers. Erickson, where are you at?
45:05So I also prefer Bechel Tootin to Janarian Price.
45:07If I was going running back in this general range, I think that he has a clear pathway.
45:13And the thing that Fitzy didn't mention as well is what happens when Zach Charbonnet comes back, right?
45:18Does this just become, oh, it's what we did last year.
45:21It's Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet taking away all the red zone opportunities.
45:25So Price is in a weird situation where he really needs to hit early for the Seahawks to have confidence.
45:31Okay, even if we get our guy Zach Charbonnet back, Janarian Price is still going to be our 1A type of running back.
45:38So you're kind of putting a pressure point with Price where he really needs to deliver out of the gates.
45:44And just looking ahead at week one, Patriots, really tough run defense, really strong defensive interior.
45:49So maybe it's more outside zone type of runs and Janarian Price can really flash that type of big head speed.
45:55You're going to see his market move dramatically. It's going to be interesting because I know that we see drafts that take
46:02place the day after the first night of NFL football on that Thursday night.
46:06You're going to see Janarian Price's price probably fluctuate dramatically from RB24.
46:09If he has a massive game, he'll be a top 12 running back, locked and loaded.
46:14Or if he has a terrible game and it's all about Emmanuel Wilson or George Holani taking on larger roles, then Janarian
46:21Price's draft stock is going to tank. So I think that he's going to move a lot.
46:26I think that there is league winning potential with him, but I kind of agree with Fitzy where it's like, I think
46:32there's some other running backs I still like more.
46:35I like the receivers a little bit more. I don't hate his price like in a vacuum.
46:40I do think that blindly looking at a round one running back, kind of going outside the top 24, 70% of running
46:47backs drafted in round one, finish as top 24 options in year one.
46:51So I get the upside case here as well, but I don't necessarily find myself drafting a ton of Janarian Price unless he really falls dramatically.
46:58So there's some booms or some busts on here, but not booms.
47:02Do we have any booms? Is anybody booming? No.
47:05Okay. No booms. Busts around. There you go. All right.
47:08I think the player that I'm going to pick is probably been covered maybe the most on this network.
47:13If we could go back and we could see all the players that we've talked about, this player has definitely been brought
47:20up at least in the top three, but it has always been in a really positive light and it's Jonathan Brooks.
47:26Jonathan Brooks on real-time ADP. I got to be careful about this because it's all over the board everywhere.
47:32People are like, well, he's going in the fifth round and ADP says he's 120 and this and that.
47:38Real-time ADP on fantasy pros, which fantasy pros, real-time ADP.
47:41There's seven-day trends. There's 24-hour trends and it is the most updated across the board for ADP.
47:46Currently has him as RV 29 and he is inside the top 100 at 79 overall.
47:50So I think that's a good marker for it.
47:53Could he be going higher in your league? Yeah.
47:56He could have gone higher in there, but the boom or bust factor I think is pretty apparent.
48:01Whether positively or negatively you take this, it was said earlier this week that assuming Chuba's healthy, that week one there'd be
48:08a 50-50 split on Chuba and Jonathan Brooks. And I saw people victory lapping and talking about it one way or the
48:14other, but one of the things I thought was interesting about the boom or bust case, because I do know and understand
48:21that the ADP still is kind of baking in, still, even though it's not inside the top 25, it's still kind of baking in some of the concerns.
48:29But the narrative around Jonathan Brooks is he is the ultimate league winner.
48:33But when they do throw this at us and they throw that, you know, it's a 50-50 split, I think this ends
48:40up taking you back to what was last year with Chuba and Rico Dowdle.
48:44And Rico Dowdle was able to thrive, obviously, but you don't see that in a lot of like early projections.
48:50Projections have got him just under 800 rushing yards, 200 on the receiving.
48:54So it's actually roughly like a thousand yards even and around six touchdowns.
48:58I think the positive case on Jonathan Brooks, outside of just being like a relatively talented player, is Chuba last year.
49:04The reason he, one of the reasons that his usage went down was because he was hurt.
49:09I mean, Rico Dowdle was efficient and Rico outproduced him, but Chuba was hurt.
49:13And he had that calf strain and it lingered for the year.
49:17He's already got a hamstring strain and that doesn't make me feel much better.
49:21So if that lingers again, that gives up opportunities for Jonathan Brooks.
49:25But on the negative case, you clearly know there's a huge injury history, but also the offensive line I would throw out.
49:31PFF is currently got them 27th in offensive line grade.
49:34That is due to both tackles being hurt. They could return a little bit sooner.
49:39And if you get the tackle returns, that could maybe end up making them like a top 15 offensive line, but you've already got offensive line bang ups.
49:47And I don't think there's a big question. I mean, Chuba Hubbard's got some questionable, like passing down blocking skills, but we've
49:54all seen the video of Chuba just getting laid out and Bryce Young getting hit.
49:58So it's like, are they going to feel comfortable with him in past blocking situations?
50:03Is he, he hasn't looked like insane or anything like that, but he's still getting his feet under him.
50:08Is it a slow roll? So everybody on the planet knows about Jonathan Brooks, but Fitzy, I'd just be curious, the negative take on it.
50:16Cause we've talked so swimmingly positive where in anything I said, or anything else you want to throw.
50:21We also don't have like a whole lot of cool underlying stuff.
50:25Cause he's not out there. He's always hurt. So you've got a bad offensive line.
50:29You've got a 50, 50 split a team in whatever their offense efficiency is going to look like.
50:35It's great that he's going to play in the receiving side, but what do you think about Jonathan Brooks and maybe the bust case for him?
50:42The bust case is that he tore the same ACL twice in a 13 month span and that he has had basically
50:49one season of work since high school. Because he was backing up Bijan Robinson at Texas and didn't get to play meaningful snaps until Bijan left.
50:57So he had one really great year at Texas, then the injury problems, you know, the second ACL tear at Carolina.
51:03And so, I mean, that's the bust side. I feel as good as you could about any player who has torn the
51:09same ACL twice though, because I think Chuba is a replacement level player useful to in an NFL backfield, but he had the really nice season in 2024.
51:18But other than that, four other seasons, pretty, pretty meh.
51:21And I just like, this is going to be Jonathan Brooks' job to lose.
51:25I'm confident enough in him that I took him in the Fantasy Pros in-house league, 16 teams.
51:30I went with a 0B approach. He's my RB1.
51:33I took him 61st overall. Let's go. I mean, I think the big positive.
51:37Ham and egging it at running back in that draft, man.
51:40I'm actually pretty excited to see what that's going to look like then.
51:44I'm not as confident as you that when you say it's just his job to lose, but also the case against the
51:51negative is kind of like he's still not like a top 20 back.
51:55He's not, you know, the cost isn't like what some of the guys with some, Jadarian Price for that matter.
52:01Like he is going cheaper. If the choice is like, hey, take Jadarian Price at RB24 or 25, or you can wait another round and get him there.
52:09Maybe if things move up a little bit though, and he's a top 25, like where's the line for you, Erickson, where
52:16you think the risk is becoming a little too risky for drafts to have that investment?
52:20Or is there just nothing you don't care about any of the offensive line?
52:25Doesn't worry. Chuba, zero worry whatsoever. He's just infallible.
52:27Like, and he is the guy this year. I think if he's being like priced like a top 20 running back, where
52:34you have to lock him in load as a RB2, and this is not in a 16 team league.
52:39Talking about like a 10 team or 12 team league where Jonathan Brooks is not a flex or something like that.
52:46Because I think that's probably where you feel the most comfortable taking him because, yeah, he really hasn't played much NFL football really at all.
52:53But when you look at the upside case, I pulled this yesterday.
52:57Dave Canalis' RB1, those guys, their fantasy finishes over the last three years.
53:01So one in Tampa Bay, two in Carolina. Rashad White was RB7, smashed his ADP.
53:05Chuba Hubbard, RB15, smashed his ADP. Rico Dattel, RB17, smashed his ADP.
53:09So like there's a lot of upside if you get this right.
53:12And to me, what we've heard and read all off season long, the Chuba Hubbard hamstring injury.
53:17Hubbard has broken down at the end of last year, 2024.
53:21Again, part of Hubbard's breakout in 2024 was because Miles Sanders got hurt when he was also seeding snaps to Miles Sanders,
53:27but then Hubbard took advantage of an injury. So I think that Hubbard is going to be the backup here.
53:33And Brooks has got a chance against arguably the worst defense in the NFL in week one to show out and cement against the Chicago Bears defense.
53:41Hey, I'm RB1. You can't take my job. And Chuba, we already saw him lose his job once.
53:47Tariq O'Dowd, a player that the Panthers had nothing invested in.
53:50He had a cheap free agent deal. He was a journeyman running back coming off obviously a strong year with the Dallas
53:57Cowboys, but they had no reason to like feature Dattel.
54:00It was like, well, this guy's good. Like we got to give him the ball.
54:04Whereas with Brooks, it's the same. Head coach that drafted him three years ago or two years ago when, and now he's healthy.
54:11It's like, we took us, we took this guy in the second round.
54:15Like we got to see what this guy can do because his contract's almost up.
54:19So I think it's ride or die with Jonathan Brooks.
54:22Booms, booms. Would you guys rather have Jonathan Brooks or Janarian Price?
54:26Brooks. Well, I said that before. Like if you also give me a round difference, I mean, maybe even I don't care
54:32about the round difference, but if it's like, you know, whatever, six round for Price and seventh round for Brooks or fifth
54:39round for Price and sixth round for Brooks, I think it's like really easy.
54:43Let me ask you this last question. We've really been like soaking in on these boomer busts, but it's fun to have these conversations.
54:50Can Jonathan Brooks be a boom prospect? If he is within 10 carries of Chuba Hubbard and 10 catches of Chuba Hubbard, is that possible?
54:58Like if they're within 10 carry, they're essentially within, let's just call it like 15 touches.
55:03Can Jonathan Brooks be a top 24 running back?
55:05If they, if those two are within 15 touches of each other?
55:09No. If it's a committee, no. I would say carries.
55:12Yes. But catch. Cause like, that's the thing. Brooks can catch the ball.
55:16Like when I look at this receiver room, would it surprise you guys if Jonathan Brooks is third on the team and catches behind Jalen Coker and TMAC?
55:24There's not a lot of running backs. Exactly. So like, there's not a lot of running backs that project as their third team's pass catcher.
55:32And when you look at, if you kind of go through all the depth charts, a lot of those running back to
55:38be, Oh, the Christian McCaffrey, the Bijan, like the elite of the elite.
55:42Whereas Jonathan Brooks, obviously not looked at in that type of way.
55:46The Panthers don't have a lot of depth at pass catcher.
55:49Jalen Coker has also been banged up two years into his NFL career.
55:53If Bryce Young's under pressure, the tackles can't hold up.
55:56What's he going to do? Check the ball down to his running back, running a out of the backfield.
56:01And the reason I said that is because then projections have to be wrong.
56:06And obviously like projections are not infallible either, but projections have to be wrong across the board because that is what we see.
56:13We see Chuba and Jonathan Brooks within about 15 touches of each other, specifically 10 carries and seven catches.
56:18But those catches are in favor of Chuba Hubbard.
56:21So projections have to be wrong if that's the case.
56:24So Jonathan Brooks, very volatile. Love to hear a Z boomer bus this season.
56:28Put it in the comments below. We've got our final boomer bus guys coming up here that we'll be lightning rounding on.
56:35But as you prepare for your fantasy draft, wherever you go, make sure it's with Fantasy Pros.
56:40The free Fantasy Pros app has got you covered where you can run realistic mock drafts, create custom cheat sheets, and you
56:46can get expert advice powered by rankings from over 100 experts.
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56:52Download the free Fantasy Pros app today at fantasypros.com slash apps and get ready to dominate your draft.
56:58That's fantasypros.com slash apps. All right. The final one here that we're going to be doing is kind of like an overarching one.
57:05We didn't have any restrictions. We can just pick anybody in the top 100.
57:09So we'll do a little bit of lightning round since we've sat on a lot of these players.
57:14This so happens to be a wide receiver centric one.
57:17So let's kick it off with Fitzy. Fitzy, you are going to give us a top 100 boomer bust wide receiver here.
57:24So Carnell Tate, whose ADP is wide receiver 32, 78th overall, top five draft capital.
57:28All the film guys unanimously love him no matter who it is.
57:32Dane Brugler, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, Matt Waldman. They all love it.
57:35D-bro. And I do love the prospect profile, but Tate is a certain type of receiver.
57:40He's a downfield guy. He operates in the intermediate and deeper areas of the field and makes plays on the ball.
57:46I don't think there are going to be a lot of easy button catches for Carnell Tate, where he gets the ball
57:53quickly and makes yardage after the catch. And without those, Tate probably is not going to be a high volume receiver.
57:59Like Jamar Chase, you see the highlights of Chase making big plays downfield.
58:03But if you watch a Bengals game, you see how many times Joe Burrow throws to Chase within five, 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
58:11The Titans have Wondell Robinson for that stuff. And Wondell is really good at it.
58:15And Wondell has also worked extensively with Titans offensive coordinator Brian Dable in the past.
58:20Plus, there are real concerns about whether Cam Ward can make this Titans passing game go.
58:25I think I'm out on Tate at this price, but I want to know what you guys think.
58:30That's a bust. I'm also a bust in this.
58:33Pretty much every case you made, I'm very worried about this offense.
58:36You can argue with a lot of these guys, the ADP could play a little bit of a role in it when
58:43you're into the late 30s on a rookie wide receiver.
58:46But I think a theme of this is like there might be early struggles.
58:50And this is a player to buy for the second half of the season.
58:54If you can see any signs of life, I'm a bust.
58:58Erickson, quickly, where are you at on Carnell Tate?
59:00Boom or bust? Boom. Wide receiver 24 in my rankings.
59:03I'm not going to be dismayed by the preseason because it's games that don't count.
59:08Robert Sala said after their last preseason game, we're running our base vanilla offense.
59:12This is not the offense they're going to be running when they play the Jets in week one.
59:17So I think Carnell Tate is going way too late as a top five draft pick in that same interview.
59:23Shout out to the Coach Speak Index, Greg Branos.
59:26When it's time to game plan and get people to rock, referring to Carnell Tate, we'll get him the rock.
59:32So I think we're going to see his usage bump up a lot when the games actually start to matter and they're
59:38actually running the offense to win games and not to show out in the preseason.
59:43It might be a plain vanilla cone, but I'm not sure I trust Cam Ward to make a banana split for me.
59:50Put that on a shirt. There you go. I'm actually going to do mine and then we'll let Erickson finish this off
59:56here because he's got a really good one. And mine is going to be Marvin Harrison at wide receiver 31-72 overall.
60:02And I'm a Michael Wilson guy. And Marvin Harrison, the more I've stared at this, there's one path for boom.
60:08And it is going to be strictly built around touchdowns at this point.
60:12Michael Wilson has been the target percentage guy, the higher catch rate, first read percentage, 26-22% from first read percentage from Michael Wilson to Marvin Harrison.
60:20Marvin Harrison also ranking around 22%. His 22% was ranked almost bottom 50 in first read percentage for wide receivers.
60:26Bad catch rate drop rate was almost 10% for Marvin Harrison.
60:29And the more that I've looked through this, like I said, I just don't see where the path is going to move
60:36away from Michael Wilson being this awesome high-end target and going into favor of Marvin Harrison, especially with all the early like head case stuff.
60:43Now, Marvin Harrison did have a high target, end zone target rate.
60:47I think it was like 14-9 versus Michael Wilson.
60:50So that might work in that favor. But I am moving in an opposite direction of Marvin Harrison.
60:55Maybe another positive thing would be if this team really does stink and they've got to throw the ball a bunch.
61:01Like if Marvin Harrison does start to click, that's going to work well.
61:05It moves through McBride. It then moves to Michael Wilson.
61:08And I think red zone side is okay for Marvin Harrison.
61:11I just don't see the high-end upside anymore with Marvin Harrison.
61:15So I'm a bust. He's at 31. Maybe it's at least not in the top 24, but regardless of the ADP, I
61:21think these guys are flipped and they're flipped in the wrong direction as far as cost.
61:26Erickson, boom or bust? Marvin Harrison? I think that he's fine.
61:29I haven't basically ranked where his ADP is. I'm actually more on the Michael Wilson bust side of things.
61:35The fact that he basically never got targeted when Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:39was healthy last year. I mean, his target rate per outrun was higher than Trey McBride's when Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:45was out of the lineup last year. And I know it's a new offense and they're playing different roles.
61:50So maybe that's going to kind of make the margin a little bit smaller.
61:54But I think that Michael Wilson is going to be third in the target pecking order overall.
62:00And attached to an offense led by potentially Carson Beck that's more run heavy and not throwing 50 times per game.
62:06That concerns me. I mean, about any of the Cardinals offensive players.
62:09Fitzy, boom or bust? Marvin Harrison? Oh man, I'm conflicted.
62:12I'm leaning bust. The Cardinals passing volume is going to plummet.
62:16They led the league in pass attempts last year and in sacks.
62:19So like they were way out in front of the league in drop backs.
62:23And that's they just drafted a running back third overall.
62:26So in real time ADP, the two receivers that Marvin Harrison Jr.
62:30is in between are Parker Washington and Carnell Tate.
62:33And that's like he's in purgatory because Parker Washington is like the last receiver I want as one of my fantasy starters.
62:39And Carnell Tate is sort of where the bench guys begin for me.
62:43Guys I want to be backups if I roster them at all.
62:47And I think Marvin Harrison, I probably lean towards not really wanting him to be a starter for me.
62:52You guys like Tate more than Harrison then? Both of you?
62:56No, I like Harrison more than Tate. I would go Tate over Harrison.
63:00Yeah, I'm anti Harrison on that. Fun fact, 13 of Marvin Harrison's 29 career games, he has finished as a top 30 wide receiver.
63:07But only four of those has he ever been a top 12 wide receiver.
63:11So upside is a little bit like meh to me.
63:14All right, the final one here. This is a really good name.
63:18He has snuck himself inside the top 100. Andrew Erickson, the final boomer bust.
63:22I mean, maybe this is the poster child. I think that's the word I was looking for earlier in the episode.
63:28Like neighbors is fun. Jeremiah Love is fun. But you want true boomer bust.
63:32Here is your poster child for it. Andrew Erickson, the ninth boomer bust player is who?
63:37It's got to be Dazon Stribbling. Wide receiver 40, 90th overall or 98th overall.
63:41So sneaking, like you said, into the top 100.
63:44He was the first guy put in the show sheet when you sent over, hey, we need the names.
63:50I was like, lock in Stribbling because his price is going up and what he's been getting in the preseason.
63:5622 routes run, 13 targets, 59% target rate per run.
63:59So I'm not as concerned about like Carnal Tate and his preseason usage because he's a top five pick.
64:04He's going to get targets. But with a guy like Stribbling, you do kind of want to weigh in a little bit
64:11more of the preseason just to understand, OK, is this guy going to actually get the rock at all?
64:16When we have Mike Evans and Christian McCaffrey and Debo Samuel out there.
64:20So that's something that you have to keep in context with Stribbling is he's getting all these targets when most of those guys aren't playing.
64:28But he has been playing with the starters, including Brock Puri.
64:31So I think that does move the needle a little bit towards the upside case because the biggest knock on Stribbling coming
64:38out as a prospect was his lack of target share, right?
64:41Because I think that there's actually a lot to like about his prospect profile.
64:45I wrote about him before the draft about how he's a kind of like a fun sleeper player that I think he
64:52might go higher than the NFL draft community was thinking.
64:55Now, didn't think he was going to go 33rd overall.
64:58That really blew expectations out of the water. But if he had been like a third round pick, it would have been fine where he went.
65:05And I would just probably be viewing him as like, yeah, man, I really like this guy's a sleeper.
65:11I thought that he wasn't really overdrafted. I think the 49ers made a good pick for once.
65:16And I'd probably be like all about him. But for some reason, I kept like weighing it back in my mind would
65:23go, they overdrafted him so he can't be that good when I think that he's been checking more boxes than not.
65:29But it's just a matter of, OK, when push comes to shove, when Kittle and Evans, Debo and CMC, is he going
65:36to get the same type of targets? Probably not.
65:38But at the same time, at least showcasing that if somebody goes down, which seems more probable than not based on the
65:45fragility of this 49ers offense, that Stribbling can at least step up.
65:48So I think the last point with Stribbling is it doesn't need to be he has to be a superstar or he has to be a total bust.
65:57When he came out of Ole Miss, I kind of comped him to Romeo Dobbs, who's just a player's like just like good.
66:04Like he's not like the superstar, but he's not a total like waste of a pick.
66:09So I think that's the thing with Stribbling that I just kind of want to be clear about.
66:14It's I think that he can have an OK role in this 49ers offense and be decent for fantasy when he's put
66:20into a situation where he will get targets because I think he has yards after the catch ability.
66:26He was efficient over two yards per round run over his last two seasons in college.
66:31So there's enough to like about him, even without the target share being elite at the college level.
66:36The 49ers are at least saying, hey, when you're on the field, like we will get you opportunities.
66:41And this is a scheme to obviously bet on led by Kyle Shannon, high powered offense.
66:46So again, there's a price where you got to say no to Stribbling, I think.
66:51But still, wide receiver 40. He's a bench player with a lot of upside.
66:55Yeah. I think he's toeing the line. He's toeing the line of where the risk is coming in.
67:00And I think the biggest point is like when all the other pieces are healthy, where can he thrive?
67:06I think he can just be a retread of Juwan Jennings in this offense.
67:10So I'm a little bit indifferent. I'd kind of would like to be on the fence like Fitzy was trying to be
67:17on one of those where I'm like, I don't know if he's boomer.
67:21But I got to be honest with you, is it even a 49er fan?
67:25I think it's hard to say he's going to be a boom prospect at wide receiver 40 in the 49ers offense when
67:31there's Kittle and there's Mike Evans and there's Christian McCaffrey.
67:34I don't really know what that looks like unless they're all out.
67:38And if they're all out, he's a boom prospect.
67:41So I'm actually going to go on bust for this one.
67:44Fitzy quickly on Stribbling, boomer bust. Yeah. Debo Samuel too.
67:47That's my concern. And that's why I have him ranked below consensus, even though I keep moving him up.
67:53But good Lord, do I have a case of FOMO here?
67:56Because man, you watch him and he is big and he's fast and his hands look like freaking suction cups.
68:02He looks like Spider-Man catching balls in these preseason games.
68:05But yeah, I mean, what if like if I knew that the electrical substation was going to be laying claim to Mike
68:11Evans soft tissue all year, I would want to be drafting Dejan Stribbling.
68:15But right now it's hard to see a path for him to be a guy you can count on in your starting lineup every week.
68:23Well, you guys can let us know in the comments below who are your favorite boomer bust prospects.
68:28What did you think about the ones that we picked?
68:31These are guys that a lot of questions around.
68:34You can kind of make the cases and we tried to pick the sides, but let us know what you guys think.
68:40Make sure you guys are also locked in on the YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasy pros.
68:45If you're listening on the podcast or inverse, if you got to take us on the go, you can always take us
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69:02So make sure to take fantasy pros with you wherever drafts are, because we can be there for you.
69:08That's going to do it for Fitzy and Erickson.
69:10I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys for hanging out.
69:13Good luck in your drafts. And we'll talk to you next time right here on fantasy pros.
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