2026 Fantasy Football Sleepers With LEAGUE-WINNING Upside | High Ceiling Targets You Need to Draft (Ep. 2076)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 3, 2026
Published
Fri, July 3, 2026
11
Player insights
11
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceDaniel JonesDylan SampsonJ.K. DobbinsJosh DownsKenyon SadiqKyren WilliamsMichael PittmanQuinshon JudkinsTucker KraftZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeValue15:20
High ceiling WR sleeper with ECR 71, ranked WR27; $84M guaranteed contract signals GM confidence in his role. Big-play ability: 21.3 yards per catch last year; doesn't require high volume to produce (1000 yards on 47 catches in 2024, 84 targets last year). 140 vacated targets available in Indianapolis; Pierce needs only 20-25 additional targets to reach 1200-yard season. Continuity with Daniel Jones (excellent before injury) provides stability. Averaged 65 yards per game last year; with modest target uptick can reach 80-85 yards per game average, translating to top-15 WR production. Andrew Erickson notes if Pierce had signed elsewhere, would be fade due to contract size, but continuity with same QB and system makes him high-ceiling play.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection36:26
Jones is going off the board at QB 25 with suppressed value due to injury and track record concerns, but offers high ceiling upside if healthy. Last year he was a top-five fantasy QB in the first 10 weeks before injury derailed the season. Andrew Erickson frames this as a bet on the Colts offense under Shane Steichen, whom he calls criminally underrated. Jones completed nearly 70% of passes last year (near career high), brings a rushing floor (300+ yards expected over 16 games), and has elite playmakers: Alec Pierce (21 yards per play), Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Jonathan Taylor. The offense moves the ball efficiently and puts up points. If Jones plays a full 17 games, he could easily finish inside the top 10 QB, especially with rushing production.
Insight pageDylan Sampson
PositiveSleeper39:01
Sampson is a PPR sleeper with significant upside in the Browns backfield, positioned to benefit from Todd Monken's pass-catching philosophy and defensive decline. Andrew Erickson notes Sampson dramatically outperforms Quinshawn Judkins in pass-catching metrics: 2.0 yards per route run vs. 1.17, 7.13 yards per target vs. 5.03, and 8.21 yards per reception vs. 6.58. The Browns defense will be weaker this year (Myles Garrett departure, Jim Schwartz exit), forcing more pass-heavy scripts. Last year the defense kept games close, reducing pass-catching opportunities; this year Sampson will see more work in passing situations. Judkins is returning from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula, and players like Mark Andrews and Tony Pollard struggled their first year back from fibula fractures, creating contingent RB2 upside for Sampson.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeValue20:13
Dobbins is being drafted around RB 29-30 (overall pick ~90) despite significant investment from Denver with a fresh contract and new money. Andrew Erickson argues the value is compelling: Dobbins was productive weeks 1-10 last season (16.4 touches, 80 yards per game, on pace for 1,300 rushing yards), averaged 5.2 yards per carry for his career, ranked third in explosive run rate and eighth in missed tackle rate last year, and the Broncos offense faltered without him down the stretch. While injury risk is real (Achilles, knee history), the combination of early-season production, good offensive line, and play-caller familiarity makes him a genuine starter at his current price who can get you off to a good start before potential late-season decline or Coleman competition.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeBreakout30:58
Downs at ECR 113 becomes an easy buy after the Pittman trade opens up significant target volume. Tom notes the distance between Downs and the WR3 (Ashton Doolin) is massive. Last year Downs played only 62% of snaps (vs. Pittman and Pierce above 80%) but drew targets at 0.24 per route run—the highest on the Colts. Even in a perceived down year, he had 84 targets. Removing Pittman opens up considerable targets; while some go to Tyler Warren (expected second-year jump), the areas Downs excels in will work well without Pittman. Main concern is potential Keenan Allen signing, but Tom is not avoiding Downs in June/July over speculation.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveSleeper40:53
Sadiq is a rookie tight end with league-winning upside and a high ceiling for late-round draft value. Andrew Erickson highlights his elite athletic profile: 4.39 40-time on a 241-pound frame, elite broad jump, and contested catch rate. Sadiq's standout skill is his ability to dominate and find space in zone coverage, which he will face frequently in the AFC East. He can line up anywhere (slot, in-line, flex wide) and has every route in his bag. Despite playing for the Jets with Geno Smith, the offense has improved weapons (Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper, Breece Hall) and Geno had a solid year in Seattle before last season. Erickson projects Sadiq will start slowly but dominate as the season progresses, earning more touches. The draft strategy: pick him in the last round as a stash; he will be available on waivers early but will become a league-winner. Additionally, Sadiq has trade value even if you already have a TE like Tucker Kraft, making him a talent acquisition target for roster flexibility.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveValue7:18
High ceiling RB sleeper with ECR 32, ADP RB14, but ranked RB8 by Murph and RB15 by Tom; three consecutive RB1 finishes (RB6 in 2023, RB7 in 2024, RB9 in 2025) despite annual skepticism about Blake Corum competition. Trusted third-down back and red zone back in elite Rams offense with Matthew Stafford coming off MVP season; had 63% of red zone rushing attempts last year. Efficiency improved from 4.1 to 4.8 yards per carry when Corum entered. Not explosive (21st in explosive run rate, 25th in missed tackle rate) but consistently pounds out RB1 production. Blake Corum's presence actually helps by removing between-the-20s work, allowing Williams to focus on high-value touches. Significant value in round three.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue28:28
Pittman is available at WR 41 despite a clear pathway to 140 targets in 2026, making him a significant value play. Andrew Erickson emphasizes the contract and organizational investment signal his importance; Pittman is one of the league's most underrated receivers in terms of skill set and route running. While last season was underwhelming in the Colts offense, the new situation with Aaron Rodgers (who lives in shorter intermediate throws) suits Pittman's profile. Andrew Erickson projects him to massively outperform WR 41 and finish at the bottom fringes of WR2. In full PPR, the volume appeal is strongest—expect high catch totals (e.g., 8 catches for 66 yards) with weekly consistency, though fewer big days without touchdowns.
Insight pageQuinshon Judkins
NegativeInjury40:06
Judkins is returning from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula, injuries that historically have caused players to struggle in their first year back. Andrew Erickson cites Mark Andrews and Tony Pollard as precedent for fractured fibula recovery challenges. The injury context creates contingent upside for backup Dylan Sampson and raises questions about why Judkins is being drafted so far ahead of Sampson despite the recovery risk.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveSleeper10:28
High ceiling TE sleeper with ECR 65, ADP TE5; injury return candidate with elite production history. Last year scored second in fantasy points per game before injury with 26% red zone target share. Elite yards-after-catch producer: 10.6 YAC per reception last year (no other TE with 25+ catches over 8 YAC); 9.3 YAC in 2024 (again, no other TE over 8). Third in yards per route run, second in yards per target. All beat reporters and team sources indicate excellent progress; likely available early in season. Packers offense needs him as primary big-play weapon after falling off cliff when he went down; likely to see force-fed targets. Can leapfrog Tyler Warren in ADP once cleared for training camp. Andrew Erickson expects significant ADP jump upon clearance.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout5:16
High ceiling sleeper with ECR 34 and WR13 ranking from Tom Strachan; three straight seasons of production growth with 1200 receiving yards last year despite Lamar Jackson missing time. Touchdown regression upside driven by systemic Ravens red zone issues rather than receiver talent: Ravens ranked 35th in red zone completion rate with 62% pressure rate (9% higher than league average), 12.5% sack rate, and 16% drop rate in red zone (3% higher than league average). Flowers is reliable when targeted in red zone but hasn't received enough opportunities; new offensive scheme expected to improve red zone efficiency. Andrew Erickson notes he scored 14 touchdowns across his first three seasons and is clearly the Ravens' number one choice.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeartPodcasts. Guaranteed Human. You get the products you need, same or next day.
0:05Helping you stay in the game. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or stop by.
0:09Grainger. For the ones who get it done. Welcome everybody to FantasyPros.
0:12This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It's me, Joey P.
0:15Joe Pisapia. And today I thought we'd do something special.
0:18In honor of the World Cup, we're going international.
0:21It's the UK takeover of the show. Tom Strachan is here with us.
0:25Also always on a lot of the Fantasy Pro shows.
0:28The Best Ball Show with Andrew Erickson. And I brought in one of my other favorite folks from across the pond.
0:34The host of the 5 Yard Rush Podcast, which is huge, over in the UK is Lord Adam Murfit.
0:40So he is here today with us and we are going to talk with Murf and Tom about some of the potential
0:46high ceiling players that you want to put on your rosters in 2026.
0:50Oftentimes, you know, we're always talking about the floor of players and it's very important to build a floor.
0:56It's also important to get some of those guys that can really kind of break the wheel and outperform their ADP and
1:02take some risks because that's how you win. Nobody remembers who finishes fourth.
1:06It's all about finishing first and we're going to help you do that today.
1:10So subscribe to the channel. Drop your comments below.
1:13Like this video. It's a really easy thing to do.
1:16Tom, you edit people don't know this a lot of the podcasts that I do.
1:20And I got to say, this must be like a new hell for you and a special torture that now you've got to be on one with me.
1:29Do you have to edit the show as well in the back end?
1:33That's that's brutal. I'm pretty relieved to find out that it's actually Joe editing this one, Joe Pisapia.
1:38So, yeah, I mean, normally I come off the best ball podcast with myself and Andrew, which can run to be like
1:45an hour and a half long during the draft.
1:47And then immediately have to sit down and edit my own voice for another two or three hours as well as Andrew's little chuckles.
1:54But this should be just in and out and job done.
1:58There we go. I don't want to take up too much of your time, Tom, God forbid.
2:03Now, Murph, I got to ask you, too. I don't know if you and Tom realize that even if your analysis is
2:09just mid-level, it's going to sound much smarter to this audience.
2:13Because here in America, we always believe that anything that someone says in a British accent is automatically going to be taken
2:19as like, well, that must be true. Is it sounds really good.
2:23Are you aware of that? I've seen this in comments from time to time.
2:27However, what I will say is this. People like Tom and I have to watch games at one in the morning.
2:33So I'm hoping the analysis is going to be slightly more than mid given that our level of dedication to the sport.
2:40But there we go. It's definitely gonna be way more.
2:43You guys are. I think also I love both of you so much is that you are a representation of of how beloved our game is.
2:51Is becoming throughout the world. And the fact that, you know, in places like UK where you have five yard rush being
2:57a popular show and and Tom all the work that you do with how seen in fancy pros, it just goes to
3:04show you that it is more than just the World Cup that has everybody a buzz across the globe.
3:09It's also a little football as well in the NFL.
3:12So I love that our game is becoming more international.
3:15I've got a lot of feelings still about the latest World Cup game that I've been sharing on every show that I
3:22still don't think it's a red card. I don't understand it.
3:25I also don't understand why you can appeal a red card situation on the video replay for more suspension time, but not less.
3:32Tom, can you explain that to me? You're a very smart guy.
3:36I don't understand that. I'm a one sport man, Joe, and ball is not round the one that I follow.
3:41Oh, God, you're such an OG guy. I mean, I can help you out here, Joe, in the sense that Flo Balogun,
3:48by the way, is a player I've seen quite a few times because he came from my club, Arsenal's Academy.
3:54So I've actually seen him live a few times, played a few games for us before we sold him for a nice, tiny profit to Monaco.
4:02So the reason they you can't appeal it, it's a FIFA long regular regulation, because by the time the appeals process goes through, the next game happens.
4:10So it's you've never been able to appeal a red card in tournaments.
4:14If only had we the technology, Murph, where we can go in and see things instantly over and over and over and over again.
4:21I'm so glad that now you get to witness what I have to put up with games a season over here where
4:27we've got this rubbish, which is even worse. We have to get binoculars out to work out where imaginary lines that are drawn incorrectly are.
4:35So, you know, I've always said the NFL replay is one of the best replays in the world.
4:40Well, rugby replay is also one of the best in the world.
4:44And yet soccer, football, whatever you want to call it, depending on where we're listening from, has somehow come up with a system that is just bad.
4:52I love it. Excellent. God, I'm so happy you two are here.
4:55All right. Let's talk about some of these high ceiling players here and let's jump in with some of the early guys
5:02here, the guys in the top 75. And you can find that ECR, the expert consensus rankings and the consensus ADP over fantasy pros dot com.
5:10So go check that out today. Let's start here with you, Tom.
5:13Let's go in house to the first guy you selected.
5:16ECR of 34 overall Zay Flowers. I know that's a guy that Bogman is very in on.
5:21So for Bogman to be that in on a Raven says a lot because he is Mr.
5:26Stealer. So it must like keep him up at night.
5:29I am also in on Zay flowers. Talk to the people of why he carries a different ceiling in 2026 than we've seen before.
5:37I think Zay flowers is just one of these players that people struggle to get on board with because he doesn't look
5:43like an alpha wide receiver, but the production he gives you is so verging on it outside of one small caveat and that's touchdowns.
5:50Like, you know, he scored 14 touchdowns across his first three seasons in the NFL and it's just never really happened.
5:57There's never been that season where all of a sudden he becomes the guy in the red zone.
6:02Of course, in week 18 outside of fantasy season, that's when he started getting into red zone last year.
6:08But the Ravens, they were just truly terrible when it came to the red zone last year.
6:13Lamar Jackson ranked 35th out of 36 quarterbacks in red zone completion rate and it wasn't all on Lamar.
6:18A lot of this was part of the Ravens just systemic problems across the board.
6:23The offensive line allowed a 62% pressure rate last year, which was 9% higher than any other quarterback faced.
6:28Jackson was sacked on 12.5% of dropbacks again, due to that poor offensive line play.
6:33And then when he did get the ball out, Ravens pass catchers were dropping the ball at 16% rate in the red
6:39zone, which was 3% higher than any other quarterback dealt with flowers.
6:43Didn't get enough targets down there. He's typically quite reliable when he does get the ball.
6:48You know, we've seen him increase his production for three straight seasons coming off 1200 receiving yards.
6:53And he did that with Lamar banged up and missing time.
6:56He's clearly their number one choice. And sooner or later, that touchdown regression is going to hit.
7:01And the way that the new offense is being talked about, I think that this is the year.
7:07He's my 28th player overall compared to the ECR of 34 and he's my wide receiver 13.
7:12Murph, you have a running back as the first guy you're going to talk about today with a high ceiling.
7:18His ECR is 32 right now in the ADP is going off as the 14th running back off the board.
7:24And in his second season of 2023, everybody said he can't do it.
7:27He can't be the guy. It's going to be Royce Freeman or it was Daryl Henderson, I believe was in that conversation.
7:34And then guess what? Kyron Williams did it and he was RB six.
7:38Then they said, I can't repeat it. And he did again in 2024 and he was RB seven.
7:43And then last year they said, well, eventually this is going to turn here.
7:47And then he was RB nine. It feels like we're back in the Aaron Jones cycle.
7:52Every year, everyone keeps telling you that Kyron Williams can't do it yet.
7:56We all love the Rams offense. We love Sean McVay.
7:59Matthew Stafford's coming off an MVP season. The Rams are the favorite to win the Superbowl.
8:04I mean, I don't understand. Like at some point, yes, Blake Corum certainly did eat into the touchdowns a little bit, but Kyron Williams is still a thing.
8:12And I think people still ignore the upside that he has.
8:15Yeah. And also you've got to think that Blake Corum is not a bad thing for Kyron Williams.
8:21Yes. Blake Corum is going to come in. He did last year and he's going to carry some of that workload and that's going to be fine.
8:29But Kyron Williams still remains the trusted third down back and also the red zone back in one of the NFL's best offenses.
8:36And that Blake Corum thing, whatever you want to call it, is just driving his price down so far that he becomes a significant value.
8:43I mean, you're talking a guy that is consistently, as you say, continuing to put numbers up three straight years as an RB1.
8:50And the great thing when Corum came in last year is actually Williams' efficiency approved from 4.1 to 4.8 yards per carry.
8:57So actually it's great. They're taking away some of the work between the 20s and they're allowing him just to be a little bit more productive.
9:04There are some things about him that aren't necessarily impressive.
9:07He's not the most explosive runner, 21st in explosive run rate and 25th in missed tackle rate, but he continues just to continue to pound the numbers.
9:15And it's the red zone touches that are really going to help here.
9:19He did have 63% of the red zone rushing attempts last year.
9:23I think that's still going to remain high this year as well.
9:26So I'm looking at him thinking, RB14, I've got him as RB8.
9:30I think he's a nice significant value if you're looking for wide receiver, wide receiver starts, picking up a running back in the third round.
9:37And Kyron Williams can tick that box and get a nice value for you in round three.
9:42Tom seems to think that's a little high. I can tell by his reaction.
9:47You think it's too, you think eight is too high considering he finishes six, seven, nine, literally the last three years.
9:53Yeah. I've got Kyron Williams at RB15. I think I'm just a couple of spots below.
9:58And I agree with what Murph saying about like, uh, he's definitely the third down back.
10:02That's not really something we see, uh, Blake Corum and Blake Corum definitely is more of the explosive between the runners guy.
10:09But I think that the split was so significant last year that if you've got a runner like Blake Corum on the
10:16field, who ranked RB15 out of 54 running backs in explosive run rate or rushes over 15 yards.
10:21Some of those are going to break for touchdowns, which then reduces the amount of opportunities that you can get on the field for goal line work.
10:29So yeah, I'm just a little bit lower, but I agree in general that Kyron Williams still deserves to be a significant amount above Blake Corum in ADP.
10:37All right, let's go to the next guy on your list, Tom, because it's a, it's a great one.
10:43ECR of 65, uh, usually about in ADP, the fifth tight end coming off the board.
10:48It's Tucker craft who last year, second and fancy points per game.
10:51A lot of people forget because of the injury and you know, he became a distant memory for a lot of us, but he was crushing it.
10:59Okay. We'll see how that works out. But at the end of the day, that's all a lot of ifs.
11:05I feel like the one sure thing in this offense, even when you go to the running game, the Josh Jacobs scenario
11:12was kind of got a lot of ifs around it.
11:15Yeah. I know the injury return is an if, but Tom, it does feel like we have craft as like this screaming
11:21of value where you watch the top couple of guys go off a tight end.
11:26And if you want to get in on that, you can do it on the cheaper craft.
11:31And he has the same exact upside as the others to finish the tops of the fantasy points and tight end anyway.
11:38Yeah. I can guarantee you took a crafts ECR is going to jump significantly when we get into training camp and he's cleared reasonably early.
11:45There's a little bit of talk that you might miss a week or so, but all impressions from the team, from the
11:52beat reporters, from the Twitter doctors who yes, they hit and miss, but all of them seem to be aligned with the
11:58fact that took a craft is making excellent progress and going to be out there early.
12:03And to your point, Joe losing Romeo dubs from this team opens things up so much more.
12:08Yeah. He's a player who scored 21 touchdowns in the last four years that he was there.
12:13They traded Don Tavian Wicks as well. Tucker craft already was the red zone option.
12:18He had a 26% target share there last year.
12:20You look at what Tucker craft does across the entire field.
12:23He's not one of these tight ends who needs to be scoring huge amounts of touchdowns because he is the best tight
12:30end in the league when it comes to yards after the catch.
12:34Last year, he had 10.6 yards after the catch.
12:36There was no other tight end with 25 or more catches who was over eight.
12:41You go back to 2024 when he broke out 9.3 yards after the catch per reception.
12:46Nobody else over eight. He's just an absolute yak monster.
12:49He was third in yards per route run, second in yards per target.
12:52And this offense, as you say, it's kind of condensing down a little bit.
12:57It's making it easier for us in the fantasy game.
13:00And the moment that Tucker craft is cleared and the moment that it looks like he's going to play week one, his
13:06ADP is absolutely taken at least around jump. That's interesting.
13:09I don't think he can take any sort of jump in terms of the order in which he's selected.
13:15Bauer's love is off the charts. Trey McBride is still going to go top three.
13:19Me alone talking about coast and love on, I think incessantly for the next two months, I don't think he's going to leapfrog him.
13:26Maybe you can leapfrog Tyler Warren. What do you, what do you think, Murph?
13:31Do you think that there is a, there is going to be a significant bump there?
13:35Uh, as Tom is alluding to when craft takes the field again and starts to look like his old self.
13:41I think you're going to see this switch between, I do think he can get above Warren.
13:46I think people are going to look at that Colts offense.
13:50We'll talk about that more through the show, but, and there's a lot to buy into there, especially with the amount of
13:56vacated targets and people initially pointing them quite a significant amount to Warren.
14:00I don't think that's necessarily the case. I think he's going to get a little bump, but as you, as Tom has
14:07alluded to with Tucker craft, he is shown in an offense that actually really requires him to step up and play.
14:13That offense has been, dare I say it average the last couple of years, and it's really going to need some big time ball players.
14:20Christian Watson, you're never betting on Matthew golden could take a leap this year.
14:24I'm not overly impressed with what I saw in year one.
14:28That's not to say you can't do it going forward.
14:31So really you're looking at the big playability. The Packers really fell off a cliff when Tucker craft went down.
14:37So he is that big play weapon in this offense and they're going to need him to get running, uh, and get off the ground quickly.
14:44So I actually think it's going to be a lot of force fed targets to Tucker craft because they're going to need to make those chunk plays.
14:53And he's the only reliable one in that offense you can depend on.
14:56So now I think people might hold Warren above him just because of the situation.
15:01And, but I, for me would take craft over Warren any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
15:07So you can tell Murphy's a really good host because he kind of did my work for me already.
15:12And speaking of the Colts, as you know, we kind of alluded to the transition.
15:17Alec Pierce is on your list. The ECR of 71 currently now.
15:20Andrew made a really good comment on the tailgate show the other day talking about if, if Pierce had signed somewhere else,
15:27we'd be talking about him as a fade for the amount of money they're paying him.
15:32But because he resigned with the Colts and it's the same QB and the same quarterback, it feels like the situation is
15:38tidy that we can absolutely see Pierce being a high ceiling play.
15:42Pittman's gone. Josh Downs is there. Warren is still a guy that I prefer, you know, to, to draft at his return on investment.
15:49But the ceiling for Pierce is real, especially if the health goes in the right direction, which again, that was another little, little tidbit information.
15:56I wish we had a little earlier about Pierce, but now we got it eventually.
16:01So talk to me about Pierce and what his ceiling is this year.
16:05I think Pierce's ceiling is absolutely incredible. I think you're looking at, first of all, you've got to look at the contract.
16:11And I know one of the things that Rich, sorry, Tom's co-host Rich talks about a lot is, you know, you follow the GMs, you follow the money.
16:20If GMs are putting investments into players, you have to really pay attention to that.
16:24And again, an $84 million guaranteed over $100 million contract is telling you that they are banking on Pierce to be a significant weapon in their offense.
16:32Now it doesn't always track. It doesn't always pan out, but you have to really like the fact that he's got that.
16:39Then you look at his big play ability. You know, you're talking about over 21.3 yards per catch last year.
16:45And the thing I really love about Pierce, especially as ADP is people are always in for these volume plays.
16:51You look around that, that tier, people are going to be looking at the volume plays.
16:55You don't need significant volume out of Alec Pierce this year.
16:59You know, last year he had a thousand yard season of just 47 catches.
17:03Now he had a little over 80 targets, 84 targets last year.
17:06There's 140 vacated targets in Indianapolis coming into this year.
17:09Alec Pierce doesn't need a lot more additional targets to get into that range into getting into that 1200 yards kind of season here.
17:17So really, if he can see an uptick of 20, 25 targets, which I think is more than realistic, given what's available,
17:23you can see Alec Pierce jump up significantly this season.
17:26And again, as you say, there's that continuity factor.
17:29He's partnered with Daniel Jones, who, you know, was having an excellent season until he went down with injury.
17:34But you also, for me, I just really like drafting guys in this range that have got that big play ability that
17:41you're not relying on these needs to have 15 targets a game to be productive.
17:45You know, Alec Pierce averaged 65 yards a game last year very easily with a few extra targets can get into those 80, 85 yards a game average.
17:54And then that's what you're talking about, a true sort of top 15 wide receiver.
17:58And you're getting him at a really good range at wide receiver 27 here.
18:02All right, let's move on to the guys in the middle rounds.
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21:05Visit GoodToKnowFacts.org. All right, let's go to the middle rounds, gentlemen, and see if there are some names here.
21:11Murph, we'll start with you this time. Over in the middle rounds, you're talking about a guy who started off in the
21:17offense pretty well for the Denver Broncos. And then it feels like the inevitable J.K.
21:22Dobbins injury always shows its head. They drafted Coleman in this offseason.
21:25I don't know how that's going to impact necessarily what this run game is a three headed monster.
21:31How's it look? But what's your case for J.K.
21:33Dobbins? Because I want to hear this because I seem to want to take the cheapest guy in Coleman later than even
21:40go for the ECR of 95 at Dobbins. But I do understand your point of view sometimes, which is like, hey, you
21:47want that guy early on, get you off to good start, who has touch on equity.
21:51And that is Dobbins, Murph. Yeah, it really is.
21:54And listen, again, I go back to the point that made earlier.
21:58This team has made a significant investment in J.K.
22:00Dobbins. They've given him a fresh contract with new money.
22:03And that's, again, significant. They've looked at J.K. Dobbins.
22:06They saw what he did last year. And even despite this injury, they're telling you that this is our guy moving forward
22:13in the short term at the very least. Now, you know, the point about the end of the season, that's a real one.
22:19There is some risks here, of course. And, you know, this Frank injury is definitely not something to not pay attention to.
22:26It is significant, especially a player that has had Achilles injuries, knee injuries, et cetera.
22:30But the thing I look at with J.K. Dobbins is how productive he was in this offense and actually how poor this team was without him.
22:38You know, they really started to really falter down the stretch.
22:41They got over the line in a lot of closer games.
22:45But really, you're looking at what he delivered. 195 carries, 905 yards and nine TDs when he was with the Chargers.
22:51And then he backed that up in 2025, 153 carries, the 70, 72 yards and four scores last year.
22:57You know, he is still as a career back averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
23:01And I just look at what he's able to produce again weeks one through 10 last season, 16.4 touches, 80 yards a game.
23:08You know, he was on pace and I know it wasn't going to hold up, but for 1300 rushing yards, you know,
23:14he was also last year, the third most explosive run rate back and eighth in missed tackle rate.
23:20So he's still got juice for a guy who's been around that long.
23:23So I look at those metrics and just think there is a player here in a situation with a good offensive line,
23:30with a good play caller who knows how to utilize him where we've seen production before.
23:35And again, I just look at his value and the yes, it comes with risk and that's why he's priced the way he is.
23:42But you know, you're picking a player in the in sort of the 90 overall, you're picking him around RB 29, RB 30.
23:49And I think you've got a genuine starter who will get you off to a good start.
23:54And those guys are definitely significantly underrated because back end of the season, you can pick up a wave of wire darling
24:00if the production drops off, if Coleman comes along.
24:03But I think take, take the value now, get yourself off to a good start and then just see where it goes.
24:10Because if he's continuing to produce, he's still going to be in this roster.
24:14It's just the injuries, the probably the bigger concern for me than it is for Coleman.
24:19All right. Let's talk about Makai Lemon, Tom, because I know that's the one that you have circled and I have circled too.
24:25I've been very upfront about my thoughts on Makai Lemon going into this year.
24:30It's not a knock on Devonta Smith. It's an investment on Makai Lemon.
24:34That's what I keep saying to everybody. It's I just, it's not a, what is it?
24:38It's not a no, but it's a yes. And that's how I feel about him.
24:43So talk to me about Makai Lemon and where his upside might be for him.
24:47He is a rookie, but we've seen rookie wide receivers time and time again in the right scenario, come in and be incredibly productive right away.
24:55Yeah, exactly. And typically first round, first round wide receivers tend to be a fairly good bet in fantasy football.
25:01Yes. You're going to get guys like Matthew golden every now and again, but there was plenty of holes that you could
25:08poke in Matthew golden as a prospect. Like Makai Lemon, he wasn't necessarily in the conversation to go top five, top six,
25:14like some of the guys that we saw up there, but for a good bit of a draft process, he was definitely being held very highly.
25:22And like yourself, Joe, I'm betting on the Eagles offense in general to take a step forward.
25:27I'm betting on their offense in general to be much better this year.
25:31I've got to shout out Jake Seeley, who on numerous shows this year has talked about how Jalen Hurts, people say that
25:37he can't throw out of the middle of the field.
25:40And it's not that he can't throw out of the middle of the field.
25:44It's just, he hasn't been asked to do it very much.
25:4885th out of 88 eligible quarterbacks in percent of throws between the numbers below 15 air yards over the last five years.
25:54So yeah, it's not often, but when he does, he has the fourth lowest off target rate on these passes, the highest
26:01touchdown per attempt rating and ranks eighth in completion rate to those areas.
26:05Now you take the new offensive coordinator and it's clear that they're pushing towards making Jalen Hurts throw in ways that he's
26:11not done a lot of in the past. And Eli Stowers as well.
26:15These are two guys who are going to work the middle of the field and that short distance really well.
26:21Mekhi Lemon's so quick, really gives defenders troubles and he can get open with ease, which I think is always important when
26:28you have these kind of dual threat quarterbacks. You want the players who can create when plays break down.
26:33And he, to me, when you watch a tape is absolutely that person.
26:37And I don't necessarily believe that he's going to be a top 20 wide receiver necessarily, but getting him all the way
26:44down like ECR of 93, I think I've got him 82nd overall.
26:47Yeah. Murph, Devonta Smith at his ADP or Makai Lemon at his, what do you prefer?
26:52It's easily Makai Lemon. What I would say with a bit of a buyer's beware, I think it's going to be a slow start for Makai Lemon.
27:00I think that if you're drafting him, especially with where you're drafting him, you've got that luxury at the price to sit
27:07and hold and wait for it to happen. I don't think you're going to see, you know, I could be wrong here.
27:13I don't think you're going to see a big score in week one, week two.
27:18But I think as Tom is saying with this offense, they are on their fifth offensive coordinator in five years.
27:24It is going to look a bit funky for a couple of weeks as they're settling in and this, they're trying to get things right.
27:31This is a whole new look offense. So don't be surprised if it's a slow start.
27:36If you're going to draft Makai Lemon, you're going to have to do it.
27:40And you've got the price to the luxury to do this, to just sit and wait.
27:45Because I think, especially as you're looking at the back half of the season, the schedule opens up quite nicely for them.
27:51They do have at this point in time, the easiest for wide receiver fantasy football strength of schedule.
27:57Now, obviously no games are played, but if you look at total points of last season, their schedule allows for the most
28:03fantasy points allowed to fantasy wide receivers last year in scoring.
28:07So they're especially towards the back end of the season fantasy playoffs.
28:10That schedule looks pretty juicy at this point. And we don't know enough with the data yet for him to have a
28:17really big end of season, mid end of season.
28:19All right. Let's move on to another wide receiver and an offense that's remade a bit.
28:24Same quarterback, new head coach, new OC and a new wide receiver.
28:28Michael Pittman shows up in Pittsburgh. So obviously there's limitations with Aaron Rodgers skill set.
28:32We know that Murph, but it feels like if Pittman gets off to that right start and they craft his role correctly,
28:39that there is a path there for him, you know, maybe not Jeremy Bernard.
28:43Maybe it is Michael Pittman, who is that guy that is kind of the beneficiary of those shorter intermediate targets.
28:49It seemed to be kind of where Aaron Rodgers lives at this point in his career.
28:54Yeah. And I think that's exactly it. And you're getting a target hog at wide receiver 41.
28:59And again, you look at the value, you look at the contract, you look at how much he was paid.
29:05This is telling you where they significantly value Michael Pittman as an organization, as a franchise.
29:10And now people are going to laugh at me because I've touted Michael Pittman for years.
29:14For me, I still feel he's one of the league's most underrated wide receivers in terms of skill set, in terms of the routes that he runs.
29:22And yes, last season wasn't particularly pretty in an offense that was all set up for him, especially in that Shane Steichen offense.
29:29But there is an easy path right now to connect Michael Pittman to 140 targets this year.
29:34And you telling me you can get a player who has a pathway to 140 targets and you can get him at wide receiver 41.
29:42Sign me up to the value. It's there. It's screaming, especially in the PPR league.
29:46I think there's going to be some problems with this offense for sure.
29:50I don't think he's going to get in the box too many times, but I do think that when you're looking at
29:57the money paid, you're looking at his skill set in particular with that target volume.
30:01I think he's going to massively outperform that wide receiver 41 placing.
30:05And I think you're looking at a player who will be sort of the bottom fringes of wide receiver two.
30:11But I think it just conflicts volume as well.
30:13I think to me, Pittman's most potential appeal is in the full PPR because I still think very much of the Steelers offense currently constituted.
30:21So that's my own problems that I'll have to deal with this offseason.
30:25But in full PPR, we don't care where you just want volume.
30:28You know, if he feels like the kind of guy that could have a lot of days where he's got like eight
30:35catches, but for 66 yards, you know what I mean?
30:38Like that kind of stuff where it's going to get you some fancy points, but maybe not have like some of those
30:44big days unless he has a touchdown attached to it.
30:47But in PPR leagues, again, some valuable continuity there on a weekly basis.
30:51And when he does have the touchdowns, those will be some good weeks.
30:55Let's talk about the other end of the Colts situation.
30:58So we talked about Alec Pierce. But Tom, you have some thoughts on Josh Downs at ECR 113 that you want everybody to know about.
31:06I mean, Josh Downs has been one of the easiest buyers of the offseason ever since that move for Michael Pittman.
31:12And even before then, I remember writing articles back in February before free agency opened up saying one of Michael Pittman or
31:18Alec Pierce is most likely not going to be on this team this year, which opens up a role for Josh Downs in 2026.
31:26Everybody pushed back. Everybody says yes, but he doesn't play outside.
31:29What happens? We get through mini camp OTAs and all the reports are that they're looking for ways to get him involved outside.
31:36You look at what he's done for this team over the last couple of years.
31:40Yes, it's not been insane volume, but the distance between him and the wide receiver three on this team is massive.
31:46Like Ashton Doolin is the wide receiver three. I don't think anybody even holds Ashton Doolin in like dynasty leagues these days because it's just non-existent.
31:54And for Josh Downs' part last year, yeah, he only played 62% of snaps, which you had Pittman and Pierce both above 80%.
32:01But when he was on the field, he was still drawing targets at a really solid rate.
32:06He had a 0.24 targets per route run, which was the highest of any player on the Colts.
32:11And even what was perceived as a down year for him, he had 84 targets.
32:16Like now you remove Michael Pittman from the offense, opens up a lot more targets.
32:20Yes, some are going to go to Tyler Warren, who you'd expect to take a second year jump.
32:26Yes, it's possible that this offense in general just isn't as fruitful as last year.
32:30But the areas we feel that Josh Downs wins in, I think, are completely going to work very well without Michael Pittman there.
32:37And the only real concern is whether Keenan Allen ends up signing there because it has been touted a little bit.
32:43But I'm not going to go through June, July, avoiding Josh Downs because Keenan Allen might sign and then regretting it if he doesn't.
32:50Yeah, we're going to keep a close eye on that Keenan Allen signing and the impact he's going to have.
32:56I mean, I think the commanders might be thinking about him too after that latest Brandon Ayuk post.
33:02Every time Brandon Ayuk posts, I feel like he's putting money into the pocket potentially of Keenan Allen from Washington.
33:08Either that or Stephon Diggs. Somebody. Yeah, well, Stephon Diggs.
33:11I mean, talk about choosing your poison between those two guys.
33:14I love it. Good luck, Washington. Good luck. All right.
33:17Next up here are some of the late round guys, the deep dart throws that have some high ceiling.
33:23These are really fun. Again, before we get to them, don't forget about our sponsor right now.
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34:37All right. Let's talk about some of the guys that are deeper down here.
34:41Tom, this is an interesting one. It's Tyler Algier, who's kind of a spoiler at ECR 133.
34:46We wanted nice things in B. John Robbins' rookie season.
34:49Tyler Algier kind of spoiled him a little bit.
34:52Are we in for another repeat of that from a couple years ago, Tom?
34:56Well, that's definitely part of the bet. And I've been in on Tyler Algier for a couple of years now, pretty much going back to his rookie season.
35:05And my one big hope in free agency was that he would find a spot where it was clear and it would be easy.
35:12Then you fast forward to the draft and obviously nothing can be easy.
35:16But I don't think that we should assume Tyler Algier can't have good fantasy value or at least really strong contingent value behind Jeremiah Love.
35:23Like Jeremiah Love is a rookie. We've seen so many rookies come in and, you know, struggle at times.
35:29And Algier is like Mr. Reliable. He's had over 650 carries in the NFL.
35:33Never once fumbled. He's a reliable pass catcher. Strong pass protector.
35:36And, I mean, you only need to go back to look at the Falcons to see that they were more than happy
35:43to use him around the goal line. He had 32 red zone touches last year.
35:4743% of the carries inside the five-yard line. And I'm kind of banking on the idea that one of James Conner or
35:54Trey Benson is probably not going to be on this roster come September.
35:58If they are, then this probably looks like a bit of a poor take.
36:02But for now, I think for somebody they saw as a priority in free agency and for a team that is clearly
36:08trying to move away from him, and Pat keeps making this point, but they are not going to throw the ball at
36:15the highest rate in the league like they did last year because they're investing so heavily in the run.
36:21So, yeah, I mean, I'm not ready to give up on Tyler Algier.
36:24All right. Let's go to you, Murph, here for a second for some of your later picks.
36:30Let's start with a quarterback, Daniel Jones, who, again, first 10 weeks of the season, Colts were riding high.
36:35Colts were the number one seed. Daniel Jones was the top five fantasy quarterback.
36:39Everything was going right. Injury happened. Everything fell apart.
36:42So a lot of this is about Daniel Jones health going into this year.
36:46But if he is healthy, there's a lot of reason to be hopeful, especially if you like to take if you're in
36:53a deeper league or you like to take, you know, late round quarterback stabs at a couple guys.
36:58You could take a Daniel Jones. You could take him to leak was you could see what what works certain weeks or in super flex as well.
37:06Daniel Jones's value is going to be suppressed based on that injury and based off the track record of underwhelming at times.
37:13But you still see a high ceiling in Daniel Jones if everything does break right and things are good when it comes to his health.
37:20I mean, absolutely. You're looking at a player that's going off the board at QB 25.
37:25As you just said last year, he was top five fantasy quarterback before the injury.
37:29You know, and this is not necessarily a bet on the player, although the player has always seemed to perform admirably in
37:36fantasy football, but a bet on the Colts offense in general.
37:39Shane Steichen is still for me one of criminally the most criminally underrated head coaches on offensive minds in the NFL.
37:46I look at what this team did last year.
37:48We've talked about it already at length with the wide receivers here, but he completed his you know, he completed almost 70
37:55percent of his passes last year, which was a near career high.
37:58He brings you a nice sort of rushing floor that comes along with him.
38:03You know, you'd expect him to probably pick up if he plays a full 16 game season, well over 300 rushing yards.
38:09And you're just looking at that big play ability.
38:12You've got a nice combination between a big play wide receiver and Alec Pierce.
38:16He's pulling off 21 yards per play. You're talking about Josh Downs, Tyler Warren.
38:20He's got great playmakers there. He's got Jonathan Taylor.
38:23That offense will continue to move the ball efficiently down downstream and will continue to put up points.
38:28So the question and the bet here is how healthy is he?
38:32And I still think that Daniel Jones, you know, Daniel Jones is seen as a bit of a joke to the casual
38:38NFL fan, which does sort of means you can always get him at a bit of a bargain.
38:44But I like the rushing floor, you know, I'm thinking of a player who could easily finish inside the top 10, especially
38:50with that rushing production and that offense if he plays 17 games.
38:54And I'm quite happy to take take the go at QB 25 in the hopes that he does.
38:59Dylan Sampson is another guy you want to highlight, Tom.
39:02And Sampson obviously had a couple moments last year where he flashed.
39:06He seems like a guy in PBR leagues could be a useful running back.
39:10What do you think that Browns running back situation looks like in 2026?
39:14And how can Sampson be the benefit? Well, you look at what Todd Monken did for the last few years in Baltimore
39:20and, you know, any Ravens fan will tell you it was infuriating the way that Derrick Henry was rotated for Justice Hill
39:27so consistently and so consistently in obvious pass catching situations.
39:30Now, Dylan Sampson versus Quinshawn Judkins when it comes to pass catching is just obliterating in every stat.
39:352.0 yards per outrun versus 1.17. 7.13 yards per target versus 5.03.
39:398.21 yards per reception versus 6.58. It's not even remotely close.
39:42And then this is a defense which isn't going to be as strong this year.
39:47The departure of Myles Garrett, loss of Jim Schwartz's defensive coordinator.
39:50They're going to be in situations where they have to pass the ball a lot more.
39:55Last year you'd see the score was kept close so much more.
39:58So they didn't need to force the passes to the running back.
40:02But I think that this year we're going to see much more of that.
40:06They're going to be in pass heavy scripts and that's obviously going to benefit Sampson.
40:10I think in PPR a very easy bet. And then, you know, the contingent upside for the RB2 who the RB1 Quinshawn
40:17Judkins is coming back from a dislocated ankle and a fractured fibula.
40:21We've seen players come back from fractured fibulas before and struggling their first year back.
40:25Mark Andrews, Tony Pollard. Yes, those players were slightly older than Judkins is now.
40:29But I think it's at least a little strange to me that Dylan Sampson is going so dramatically far behind Quinshawn Judkins.
40:36Yeah, that's I think the biggest thing to point out, Tom, is like the gap between the two, especially if an injury should happen, right?
40:43All of a sudden, you know, Sampson could potentially be elevated in a different way, especially in that Todd Monk in offense.
40:50It's been very run heavy throughout his tenure in the NFL.
40:53Last guy to talk about here is another rookie.
40:56Let's talk about Kenyon Sadiq of the New York Jets.
40:59Now, Murph is a renaissance, a tight end. So many good guys this year.
41:03The top eight are stunning. You can make a case for any of them somehow finding their way to the top one or two.
41:10But Kenyon Sadiq is a guy that you want to point out there.
41:14So let's talk about that because it's tough sometimes to get excited about New York Jets, especially with Geno Smith running an offense.
41:21So why can Kenyon Sadiq actually be a surprise for folks?
41:24I mean, first of all, if you didn't watch him in college, go and find some highlights of him at Oregon.
41:30Oh, incredibly talented. Yeah. You're talking about a guy at the Combine who absolutely blistered the tight end record, ran a 4-3-9 on a 241-pound frame.
41:38His broad jump, his contested catch rate. I think for me where he needs very, very little introduction to the NFL is
41:45how he dominates and finds space in zone coverage.
41:47That for me is a real standout point. He's going to face a lot of zone, especially in that AFC East.
41:54I look at everything he's going to produce. He's going to get open.
41:57He's going to get open a lot. You can line him up absolutely anywhere.
42:02You want to play him in the slot. You want to play him in line.
42:06You want to play him up the middle, flex wide, whichever way you want to look at him.
42:11He's got every route in his bag. He's got every opportunity to win early.
42:16Now, with the Jets, we know they're going to get a little bit more aggressive this year.
42:21Yes, it's not exciting to be behind Gino, but Gino had a good year before last season in Seattle.
42:26You're going to look at that coaching. There is some good weapons there that he can aim at.
42:32You're looking at Garrett Wilson there. You're looking at they've invested in the wide receiver position and Omar Cooper, who again is a talented player.
42:39You've got now Sadiq there. You have got options.
42:42You've got Brees Hall there. This offense is not a terrible offense.
42:45It just people are dinged after the Gino experience last year and who can blame them because it was pretty bad in Oakland.
42:52But I think he will see. Listen, he's not the most exciting quarterback, but he is efficient and he can deliver some results.
42:59And I think Sadiq has got to have those opportunities, especially over the middle, to really get open and to make some explosive plays.
43:06Again, he's a player that you're going to draft.
43:09It's not going to start particularly well and particularly early, but I think he is a player who is going to dominate
43:16as the season gets on and he gets bigger and better and he's going to earn more and more touches in this offense.
43:22So when you're thinking about down the stretch and getting yourself a value that everyone's going to run to the wave of
43:29wires for, don't wait for the wave of wires.
43:32Pick him up in your last round. He's going to be available for you and you'll be happy that you've stashed him
43:38a few weeks because you'll see the production. Yeah.
43:41One of the things I always like to do, Murph, in all my drafts too, is the drafts are about acquiring talent on your roster.
43:48So if you think Sadiq is a talent, even though you have a Tucker Craft, we're telling you to go draft him.
43:55Sadiq then becomes an interesting trade ship at some point.
43:58Value is still there, even if you already have that spot filled with somebody that might be better.
44:03It doesn't mean that that player doesn't have value on your roster, but more importantly, on someone else's roster too, when you
44:10go ahead and make a deal like that. So always keep that in mind, everybody.
44:14The draft is for acquiring talent. It's not for just, you know, S's and G's.
44:19Continue to acquire talent, even if you think, oh, I'm really good at quarterback.
44:23I'm really good at wide receiver. Everybody thinks they're really good at everything until injuries happen and the NFL season happens.
44:29All right. And one of the things you need to do is make sure you use the tools of fantasy pros as well.
44:36Tools like the cheat sheet creator where you build your custom rankings and you can go check it out at fantasy pros
44:43dot com slash sheet or download the fantasy pros app.
44:46Sync your leaks for free. Don't be a tool.
44:48Use the tools and take some of this advice from these two gentlemen to get some of these players with high ceiling for you.
44:55Now, I'm very appreciative that everybody joined us. I know it is evening where you are, gentlemen.
45:01So I will bid you adieu and a good night.
45:03I've still got a football tournament to coach. It's 100 degrees here.
45:07We're playing indoor. Or that air conditioning better be working in that facility.
45:11I can tell you right now we go to that bubble and it better not be 110 inside that bubble.
45:17I'm hoping not. But this was a hot show.
45:20Gentlemen, great to see you. Check out Five Yard Rush podcast as well.
45:23If you've never listened to it, you absolutely should.
45:26And of course, check out all Tom's work here on fantasy pros, especially those best ball streams that here and Erickson are doing.
45:33If you're playing best ball, those are can't miss.
45:36Go check those out. And of course, check out all the tools of fantasy pros and subscribe to the YouTube channel.
45:42That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on.
45:46For Tom and Murph, I'm Joey P. We will see you next time, kids.
45:50Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
45:53If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
46:01Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasypros.
46:04And subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
46:07When it comes to what your family eats and drinks, you know your choices matter.
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46:26Visit goodtoknowfacts.org. Hi, it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast.
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