Keep These Players Secret! | 2026 Fantasy Football Advice
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Jul 1, 2026
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Wed, July 1, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here, back with another video. Today we're going over my five favorite late round picks to make this season. I'm using
0:05average redraft league ADP, 12-team, two wide receiver leagues. And we're only looking at rounds 12 on, so no one earlier than that. Basically, our
0:14mindset in these final rounds is purely towards ceiling. Not only does it not matter at all if you end up dropping
0:21your 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th round pick, will not impact your chance of making the playoffs or winning the championship. Those picks will not
0:28matter if you get rid of them. In fact, you're probably going to get rid of most of them because there are better players
0:33that end up on free agency, especially early in the season. But, also, from a perspective of if you quote-unquote hit on a player who's like
0:43the wide receiver 45 and you never use them, it can actually be a detriment to your team. So, what you want to do is
0:51say, "Okay, if this player hits in terms of like being more productive or more talented than we're expecting or more talented than public thinks, if the
1:00offense over-performs, you know, the coordinator turns out to be a stud, they're scoring 10 more touchdowns than projected, they're up and down the
1:08field, they're scoring 27 points per game, or maybe if the starter goes down." If one of those things happens, think about how would we be ranking this
1:15player on a week-to-week basis? And if the answer is, "Well, even if these things happen, they're probably still like a low-end running back or wide
1:23receiver three, or maybe just like a tight end or quarterback that we're streaming still," it's probably just not someone that's even worth drafting later
1:31on. I'd rather draft someone who might have a floor of doing absolutely nothing, but has that chance to actually be a fantasy
1:39starter on my team because free agency is still filled with so many players who are mediocre. Don't draft them to your
1:45team. Try and get the players who actually have a ceiling. So, given that, first player I want to go over today is
1:52Isiah Pacheco coming off the board in the late 12th round, uh, running back 49 right now. He's locked in as the running
1:58back two for the Lions this season. This season meaning he's obviously going to need an injury to Gibbs. Like, for him
2:03to hit his true ceiling, it is not going to come in a season where Jahmyr Gibbs stays fully healthy. Everyone knows
2:09that. But, that's obviously also the case for every single running back going this late. So, we want to think about what would his value be number one on a
2:18good season with Gibbs healthy. And then number two, if Gibbs were to miss time, maybe he misses like a month and a half
2:24or something like that. With a high ankle sprain, how would we be viewing Pacheco in those weeks? Personally, I think his a baseline is going to have
2:32a larger role than people are expecting right now. Um, he's the exact style of player that Dan Campbell loves. He's very physical. He goes 100% on every
2:40single play. Uh, you watch him run and it's just like that is a Dan Campbell running back. Uh, he is not David
2:46Montgomery. But, if he could even be like 70% of what David Montgomery is, then he could provide legitimate weekly value in this offense. The Lions
2:57backfield by far scored the most points per game last season. They combined all the running backs for 28 and a half half
3:04PPR points per game. That was five points per game more than Baltimore for fifth place. That is insane production.
3:12And Detroit now has the single easiest rushing schedule in the league this season. They're going to win a lot of games. They're going to win a lot of
3:20games in a dome as a high-scoring team.
3:22And then they're also going up against defenses that aren't that good at defending running backs. So, if Pacheco can get even like 30% of the running
3:30back fantasy points on the Lions, then that's the same as last season getting 50% of the fantasy points on the Vikings, the Eagles, the Cardinals, the
3:39Chargers. Obviously, you know, Detroit could score more or less this season. Like, I think the Chargers are going to score way more fantasy points
3:47this season. But, the point is think about those offenses last season.
3:51If even if Pacheco can get 30% of the volume on Detroit, that's the same as getting half the volume on some pretty
3:58good offense. Now, I don't think when you have Jahmyr Gibbs healthy, that you're going to be like playing Pacheco running back two. Right again, I said
4:06he's not David Montgomery. He's not going to fill that role completely. But, I think, you know, sometimes we overrate what it takes to occasionally need
4:16someone at running back two, occasionally need someone in the second flex spot. There will be weeks where you have multiple running backs on bye,
4:23where your starter gets injured, where your starter just ends up not being that good or not having a role, and you just
4:28don't want to play them anymore. There's going to be some weeks where you're like, I just need something for my running back two to get by and not take
4:35a zero. And I just feel like if he's in this Montgomery role, maybe he isn't as talented, but he's in this Montgomery
4:40role, then he's going to have occasional goal line looks. He's going to have occasional times where they're up by 14 to 21 points in the fourth quarter, and
4:49he's using the clock killing situation.
4:51He racks up on the fantasy points where like, that's fine. Like I can take this production, you know, because they're not going to give Jahmyr Gibbs 30
4:56touches every week. So, I think he'll have some value in that sense. And then if Gibbs were to miss time, there's no
5:02other running back on this roster that they really need to give touches to.
5:06Obviously, he also would not get 30 touches per game, but he's probably a talented enough player where they'd be perfectly comfortable
5:12giving him like 17 plus opportunities.
5:15And at that point, he's easily, you know, a high-end running back two, maybe a low-end running back one in a good
5:21match up. And that's of course the upside we're really looking for this late. Another running back I target in the final rounds is Keaontay Mitchell,
5:27coming off the board in the mid-13th round. I have a very similar take as I do with Isiah Pacheco. The backfield
5:35won't be as productive overall, but it's going to be a whole lot better than last season, just given the new scheme and
5:41just improved health with the offensive offensive line. They can't possibly be as injured as they were last year. It really comes down to I think his role is
5:49going to be much larger than the public is expecting right now. McDaniels scheme is about running a lot of zone concepts,
5:56um, really trying to stretch defenses horizontally and really trying to maximize the speed of his team. He wants everyone on this offense to be
6:04incredibly fast so they can just move laterally and of course vertically as well, but really move laterally across the field, create mismatches, and just
6:11get guys to the edge. He wants his running backs hitting the edge, working across the field, and hitting a hole.
6:16Not as much north-south. Like, that's not as much of what this offense is going to be. Hampton can do great in
6:23this system, but it's worth noting that last season he only had 3.2 yards per carry on zone concepts compared to 4.24
6:31yards per carry on zone concepts for Keaton Mitchell last year. And then in his breakout rookie season Keaton Mitchell averaged 7.2 yards per carry on
6:40zone concepts. Obviously with Keaton it's a limited sample size, but it's also sort of a limited sample size with Raheem Hampton. We still don't 100% know
6:48how good he is running back. Great prospect. I think he's going to be very good, but it's worth noting that we
6:55still do not know exactly how good he is. Um, I do see a lot of people comparing the situation to what
7:01McDaniels had with Mostert and Achane back in 2023. Uh, that's obviously the high end of the outcome, right? In that year Detroit was first in points per
7:09game by three. Imagine being the number one scoring backfield in fantasy by three points per game. That is unheard of. The running backs combined for 31.2
7:19half PPR points per game that season.
7:21Next best was the 49ers at 28.2.
7:25They outpaced the fifth best team by nine points per game. They were dominant.
7:30Again, that is probably not going to happen. That's like a top 1% outcome.
7:35You should be ecstatic if that ever came true, but they don't need to get to that level of dominance to be capable of
7:41supporting two running backs in this offense, and it shows us that this scheme is capable of producing if given the right players.
7:50And the Chargers clearly wanted Keaton Mitchell. It's not like they gave him a million dollars, they gave him two-year two-point or 9.25 million-dollar deal,
7:58$5 million guaranteed, $2 million in additional incentive bonuses. It was a very similar contract that Rico Dowdle got. It indicates that they plan on
8:07giving him a weekly role on this team.
8:09So, I really like Pacheco. I really like Keaton Mitchell as just that like final running back in your roster, especially if you played a little bit more risky.
8:18Maybe you went like hero RB, you grab someone like Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, something like that in round one, and you drafted a lot more
8:29like tight end and quarterback or receiver in the middle rounds, and you don't love your running backs. These are two running backs that I think can
8:34provide some value, but have that ceiling to really hit and to kind of build a super team. For sticking with the Chargers, again, you guys have heard
8:42me say a lot, I want to be attaching myself to the Chargers offense this season as much as possible. So, sticking
8:49with that theme and doing it with the cheapest options on the team, Trey Harris is a great pick. He's going in
8:55round 17 right now. Many of you don't even have 17 rounds in your draft, and so he will definitely be there as that
9:01final skill player.
9:03Um, locking as the three wide receivers sets, and I don't think people understand that because he wasn't last year. They didn't want him to be last
9:09year. They did not draft him to be someone that will come out fight for the number one wide receiver role. Like,
9:15they knew he was going to take a little bit of time to develop, and they knew they didn't need him to do that because
9:20they had Quentin on the outside, and then they had Ladd and Keenan fully operating over the middle of the field.
9:24Like, that was the offense last season.
9:26But, Keenan Allen is gone. He takes away a lot of targets, and they've already talked about how Trey Harris is absolutely locked in as that third wide
9:34receiver.
9:35That's going to lock him in all snaps in 11-person now. What I think people take from there is like, "Okay, fine, fine,
9:40fine. But, you know, maybe they're going to roll or a lot of heavy sets."
9:44Even last season, as a rookie, Trey Harris, and and last season a rookie as the fourth wide receiver on the team,
9:51Trey Harris took a lot of snaps as the lone wide receiver in heavy sets or in two wide receiver sets. Like, you would
9:57kind of turn on the game and you're like, "Is that Trey Harris?" You're like, "Why is that not Ladd? Why is that
10:01not Quentin Johnston?" Like, "Why is Trey Harris out there as the only wide receiver on the field?" Well, cuz he's really good at run blocking. What does
10:09Mike McDaniel really want his wide receivers to be able to do? It's run block, right? This is going to be a team
10:14that is built on the ground game, still has an elite quarterback, still going to throw the ball a ton, but the offense is
10:19built to try and dominate on the ground and utilize play action off of that.
10:24Well, yeah, you're going to want someone out there that's very good at run blocking, who's also a very athletic wide receiver, was a pretty high-end
10:31prospect. I just don't think people understand how many more snaps Trey Harris is going to see. He's going to be out there every single time it's an
10:3811-personnel, and a lot of times when they move into 12 and into 13, as well.
10:43Um, and also he's capable of playing all three positions, so he's not like locked in saying he can only play X, he can
10:48only play Z, only play in the slot. No, he can play all three wide receiver positions, and so he is going to be out
10:55there a lot. Now, he still has some developing to do. I don't want it to be all sunshine and rainbows here. He
11:00wasn't that amazing on individual route success rates. He had some above average, but like, overall it wasn't a great route tree for him in
11:08year one. I did not really separate that well against man zone press. It wasn't terrible, so I think he's more of
11:16a lottery pick, right? He's a shot in the dark, he's a dart throw later on, but one that makes a lot of sense. When
11:21we're doing these dart throws and trying to hit on prospects, we want to say, "Okay, are you on a really good team? Do
11:26you have a really good coordinator? Do you have a great quarterback? Were you high on prospect?" All of those things three things are hit. It's just that he
11:33has some more developing to do. Well, it seems like he's done that. Like it seems like over the off season, he has
11:39developed as a route runner. They've talked about, you know, really liking his progress.
11:44I don't know. I just feel like if he can get to even like, you know, an above average route runner, above average
11:49separator in this scheme, he can really as a player. And then of course, you know, the true upside comes if there's
11:55an injury, if Quinton Johnston were to go down, miss some time. Now you've got Trey Harris probably being a wide receiver two in fantasy every single
12:04week. But again, when I go back to really the start here, I just want to invest in really good offenses late especially, and I want to
12:11be investing in the Chargers. And so give me an athletic prospect who was great breaking tackles as well. I didn't mention this before.
12:18The routes weren't necessarily amazing, but if they improve a little bit and he can get open a little bit more often,
12:24he can break tackles. I mean, this is a guy that does not go down on first contact. You get him moving across the
12:29field, making one safety miss. He can turn big He can turn like medium chunks into really big plays.
12:35In this offense, I want to be taking that in the 17th round.
12:39Of course Ladd, of course Quinton are better picks in this offense. Of course we're excited about Gadsden and the running backs, but this is the very last
12:46pick. Why not take a shot on someone like this? And if he goes out there in week one, he looks terrible, he's not
12:51separating, it was your last pick. You can cut him and it's totally fine. I do think though he's going to end up being a good pick
12:57this season. Uh other wide receiver I'd go after is Ryan Flournoy, uh late 17th round pick as well right now. Um just
13:03another wide receiver that, you know, take late, see what happens in week one.
13:08If we're wrong and the role is not there, you can cut him. But I don't think we're going to be wrong here as
13:12well. The role is going to be there.
13:13He's not going to be out there in one or two wide receiver sets, but that's okay because Dallas doesn't care about this
13:19league wide shift. So every single team is shifting towards, you know, drafting a million tight ends. We're going to get two, three tight ends onto the field.
13:26We're playing heavy. We're following the Rams, and I think a lot of them are going to fail. And they're going to go
13:30back to 11 personnel. But, uh Dallas is like, "No, we're just going to put our best players out there, and that means
13:35we're going to have three wide receivers on the field." So, uh they're not following this league-wide shift. So, Flounoy is going to be running a ton of
13:42routes this season. He was highly productive last year when given opportunity. He just didn't have a lot of opportunities last season because he
13:49was still breaking out, developing as a player. But, he had at least 68 receiving yards in all three games he had at least seven targets, at least 114
13:58receiving yards in the two games he had at least nine targets. Uh definitely going to take an injury to be someone
14:04that like truly breaks out. Like, unless you're in like, you know, 14-16 team league, and you kind of have that second
14:09flex spot on a week-to-week basis, it's still relatively unlikely you're utilizing Flounoy. But again, this late you're probably not utilizing anyone
14:18right off the jump.
14:19But, if your team suffers some injuries, and you really need someone, if Dallas especially suffers one injury to Lamb or Pickens, you've got someone who's going
14:29to be heavily utilized in the offense, and the staff has been gushing over this kid. This isn't like us being like, "Oh,
14:34we had a few good games, and he looked solid." All off season, all the staff can talk about is how much he has
14:41progressed, how much they like the second half of last season for him, um just how great he's going to be as that
14:48third wide receiver, how he's developing as a route runner, how he's getting a lot of reps with Dak. So, I just think
14:53he's a really good pick to make because he's going to be out there a ton, great offense with a great quarterback, and
14:59they're going to be running 11 personnel all the time. And then, of course, the contingent upside, he's probably a weekly start if Lamb or Pickens goes
15:06down. Uh then finally, tight end, uh we've got Greg Dulcich, early 18th-round pick right now. Uh definitely on the worst offense in today's video. So, my
15:16goal, like I kind of alluded to before in the late rounds, is can you just draft someone who's athletic, on a good
15:22offense with a good coordinator or good quarterback. There are a lot of players who fit that bill. And so, when we go
15:27over here and we say you're drafting someone on the Dolphins with Malik Willis, who we don't know, but probably is not an elite quarterback, you're
15:35like, wait, that kind of breaks that mold of what we're looking for later on.
15:39Yes, but Dulcich basically has a chance to be their wide receiver one this season. I mean, you look at the top four wide
15:45receivers on the Dolphins right now, it's Malik Washington, Jaylen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and then probably Chris Bell once he's healthy. That is
15:56horrible. And they're not exactly a free agent destination, right?
15:59Maybe as like a a team overall over time, people have wanted to play in Miami, but right now, no free agent wide
16:07receiver, and there's not that many we even care about right now. But no free agent wide receiver is going to be like,
16:10yeah, let's go play in in in Miami and win like four games this season and play on a run-first, slow-paced offense with
16:18an unknown quarterback. No. These guys are not wanting to do that. So, I don't think they're really going to add anyone. They're not going to trade for
16:25anyone cuz they're also not trying to win now. So, it's kind of a brutal situation for these wide receivers.
16:31Those guys are going to run a ton of routes, Malik Washington, Tolbert, and Tutu, but none of them are good, and
16:37Chris Bell is probably not going to play for the first like half of the season.
16:40So, you sit there and you're like, is Dulcich going to be their number one wide receiver? And you look at him,
16:45among tight ends last season, on a limited sample, but among tight ends, second in yards per route run, second in yak per reception, fourth in explosive
16:54catch rate among tight ends. Like, that's pretty darn impressive. Early reports out of like, not training camp yet, but early reports out of camps,
17:01OTAs, is that he's been the favorite target of Malik Willis, which again, makes sense cuz his wide receivers are terrible, but
17:08you know, Dulcich is a pretty athletic tight end. I don't know, I just feel like he's a good bet in two tight end
17:13builds. I don't know that I'd leave a the with only Greg Dulcich as my tight end unless I was in like a 16 or an 18
17:19team league and I'm like, well, hopefully he's the guy, you know, cuz I have nothing to draft anymore. Um But especially in two tight end builds,
17:26if you want to take someone who we like, but is a little bit more risky, someone like a Gadston or a Likely, where, you
17:32know, these are young, athletic tight ends in on good teams who, well, decent team for for uh Likely, but on teams where we could actually see a
17:42really strong role, uh especially, you know, like what if like Malik Nabers doesn't really do a whole lot early in the season? Like Likely could rack up a
17:50lot of targets. And so, if Gadston and Likely actually hit, they have a really high ceiling. Uh but you could also
17:55easily see both Gadston and Likely on free agency in every league by week four. Like that could absolutely happen.
18:02And so, if you want to pair them with someone like Dulcich, you kind of get two shots late. It's not really costing
18:08you anything uh by like ADP value.
18:10You've been able to invest heavily in all the other positions early on and then very late just double dip on those
18:16two. I don't know. It's a good strategy.
18:18Again, in tight end, my strategy this season is Bowers or Loveland, maybe Tyler Warren, and then wait. But if you hit that wait category, which many of
18:27you are going to do cuz you can't all draft Bowers and Kolsen Loveland, uh I don't know. I think going with like a
18:32Likely plus Greg Dulcich makes a lot of sense this season. So, those are my favorite late round picks right now. Let
18:38me know who you're taking in the later rounds in the comment section down below. And if you're really itching to start drafting and getting draft fever
18:45right now, I have the perfect remedy for you. Head on over to Underdog, do some drafts for as little as $3. Uh they
18:52actually have sometimes like a one and $2 contest from time to time. So, those are just the perfect setups to getting a
18:59feel for value this season. Where are the tier breaks? Where should you be drafting different positions in the draft um while also not like breaking the bank
19:08for like a dollar or two in a draft and also not committing to too many leagues.
19:12I famously cap myself at three season-long leagues each year just because we all only have so much time and I just cannot be in more than three
19:20managed leagues. There's waiver wires and trades and start sits and if I'm in any more than three, I can't do any of
19:26them and I might as well not be in the league. But I'll probably do like 250 Underdog drafts cuz I love drafting. I
19:32want to be drafting a lot more and it allows me to do that without joining into more season-long leagues, having a
19:38huge time commitment in season and it is not performing as well because if you have a huge time commitment and you
19:43can't hit that time commitment, then your team's not going to do as well. So, really, really love playing Underdog.
19:48Best part, if you have not yet signed up for Underdog, you can get my redraft rankings for free this season if you
19:54sign up. So, sign up for your first Underdog account with promo code FFA.
19:59Join at least one draft. That is it.
20:01You'll get an email from me soon after, the next day, day after, with access to the website. You'll have access all summer long to look at my
20:09Underdog rankings which you can upload to Underdog, or my redraft rankings, the custom rankings as well. Pretty good deal if you ask me. So, that's it for
20:16this one. Thank you all for watching.
20:18Please subscribe on YouTube or Spotify.
20:20If you're new here, please leave a like if you are still here. And I'll do it for this one. Thanks for watching.
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