The Bowers That Be: Predicting MVP and Other 2026 Awards
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 10, 2026
Published
Mon, August 10, 2026
18
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersDaniel JonesDenzel BostonFernando MendozaJadarian PriceJaxon Smith-NjigbaJoe BurrowJosh DownsJustin HerbertKenneth Walker IIIKyler MurrayLamar JacksonMatthew StaffordPatrick Mahomes
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
PositiveBreakout18:03
Ben Solak predicts Brock Bowers will win Offensive Player of the Year, citing his record-breaking rookie season (1,194 yards, 112 receptions). Solak believes that under offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak, who has a history of funneling targets to a primary pass-catcher, Bowers will see a massive target share in Las Vegas, potentially setting the record for the best receiving season by a tight end.
Insight pagePositiveProjection32:16
Mina Kimes projects Bowers to have the best receiving season by a tight end ever, citing Kubiak's ability to scheme targets to his star pass catcher. Kimes believes Bowers will be the primary target funnel in Las Vegas, making him a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year despite the team's potentially dubious offense.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveRole43:42
Mina Kimes notes that Daniel Jones received a boost from the implementation of a quarterback running game and RPOs.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveBreakout69:20
Denzel Boston is a dark horse for offensive rookie of the year. He has impressed in training camp with his size, speed, and physicality, looking like a clear NFL-caliber X receiver who can make explosive plays downfield.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
PositiveProjection65:08
Fernando Mendoza is the preferred offensive rookie of the year pick by Ben Solak. Despite the historical difficulty of rookie quarterbacks, Solak argues that Mendoza is in the best situation and is a great scheme fit, making him a potential fantasy darling.
Insight pageJadarian Price
PositiveUsage66:20
Jadarian Price is a strong offensive rookie candidate due to his situation in Seattle. While there are concerns about a committee backfield with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, Solak believes Price is a better player than his college stats suggest and has the potential to be a three-down back.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveUsage19:18
Ben Solak highlights Jaxon Smith-Njigba's usage under Clint Kubiak last season as a blueprint for how Bowers will be used in Las Vegas. Smith-Njigba accounted for over 40% of the team's receiving yards and a 37% target share, demonstrating Kubiak's ability to creatively manufacture touches for his star pass-catcher.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection7:20
Mina Kimes and Ben Solak both identify Joe Burrow as a top MVP candidate due to his narrative-driven potential, team success, and a favorable schedule. Kimes notes that with a healthy season, the Bengals' offense—which remains largely unchanged—has a high floor, and the team's improved offensive line and defense should lead to more wins, which is a primary predictor for MVP voters. Solak adds that Burrow consistently produces high-yardage games against playoff-caliber opponents, and the team's pass-heavy approach will continue.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeInjury74:36
Mina Kimes notes a recurring trend where she visits Colts training camp with high expectations for Josh Downs, only for him to suffer an injury during her visit.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveProjection6:46
Ben Solak notes that Justin Herbert has risen significantly in MVP odds and has a strong case for the award. However, Kimes and Solak both suggest that if the Chargers have an explosive offensive season, the narrative credit might lean more toward head coach Mike McDaniel rather than Herbert himself, potentially complicating his path to the award compared to Burrow.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage54:24
Mina Kimes mentions that Kenneth Walker runs the ball really well, contributing to the potential success of the Chiefs' offense.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection14:51
Ben Solak considered Kyler Murray as a dark horse MVP candidate, noting that if he has a massive bounce-back season in Minnesota, he could potentially leapfrog Comeback Player of the Year conversations. However, Solak admits he struggled to fully commit to Murray as an MVP winner.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection40:24
Mina Kimes notes that a full, healthy season from Lamar Jackson is a prerequisite for the Ravens' defense to make a significant leap and for Jesse Minter to be considered for Coach of the Year.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeInjury56:21
Mina Kimes speculates on a scenario where Matthew Stafford misses time in December, which could impact the perception of the Rams' front office.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection54:30
Mina Kimes suggests that even with a 4,000-yard season, Patrick Mahomes might not win MVP if the team's success is attributed more to the general manager's roster construction.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection38:40
Kimes views Nacua as a highly reliable, 'scheme-proof' receiver who is likely to be part of the best offense in football. Despite potential injury risks and age concerns for teammate Davante Adams, Kimes expects Nacua to be at minimum a top-two or top-three receiver, noting his elite contested catch ability and deep-threat evolution.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection12:31
Ben Solak identifies Trevor Lawrence as a dark horse MVP candidate, citing his strong finish to the previous season, the addition of Brian Thomas Jr., and the offensive design of Liam Coen. Solak highlights Lawrence's ability to push the ball downfield, his mobility, and the potential for the Jaguars to secure a high playoff seed in the AFC South, which would bolster his MVP narrative.
Insight pageWan'Dale Robinson
NegativeValue43:18
Mina Kimes questions the value of the resources spent on Wandale Robinson, noting that while the team is better, she is not necessarily a fan of the specific investment.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00From athletic stuff like a full court pickup game, SWISH!
0:03To athletic-ish stuff, like a half mile stroll. Get those steps in!
0:06Head to Sierra or Sierra.com for the brands you want at the prices that let you do it all.
0:12From athletic to athletic-ish, Sierra's got it. Welcome back to the Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny.
0:16Ben Solak is here fresh off of his training camp.
0:19Uh, like journey? I feel like, how many camps did you go to?
0:23Nine camps in 10 days, baby. The glorious open road of the Midwest.
0:26Look at Tan. Look at Reddy. Um, I... You were at Seattle camp.
0:30I saw that. I wasn't ready for- I wasn't ready for NFL Network Community Times there.
0:34I know. I did Chargers camp with my guy Daniel Jeremiah.
0:38Then I went to Seahawks camp, which was, uh, actually might have informed one of the things we're going to talk about today because power hours are over.
0:45We remain on our twice a week cadence. Uh, we are going to, obviously the preseason is going to start soon.
0:51We'll start talking about actual football-ish being played. Uh, but this is a podcast.
0:55I think we didn't do it last year because I did a live show in Seattle, but we did it the year
1:01before, uh, which is awards predictions, right? I think we did it in 2024 and not 2025.
1:06Yeah. I was, when I was in Seattle, I was funny.
1:09I ran to Julian Love and we talked about, uh, the conversation we had where he, I believe he said in that
1:16podcast, we're gonna be the best defense in the NFL at that live show, which I know it's, they all think that,
1:22but like, you know, I'll do it when all 32 teams say it.
1:25Um, some of the awards predictions is funny going back ended up being pretty used to, I think we did.
1:31Yeah. Uh, a few of them, but, uh, it's always interesting to project awards because you're not only trying to project who
1:37has the best seasons, different awards mean different things, but it's also, there's a narrative, a narrative component.
1:42Um, there's a lot to unpack for each of them.
1:45So we're gonna do the major awards, MVP offensive player of the year, rookie of the year as such.
1:51We're gonna do coach of the year executive year.
1:53And then I think I told you we're doing assistant of the year too, which is, I just think is always.
1:59I feel like you, you do this because you have like six guys that you want to name.
2:04You want to kind of get takes out on all of them before the season starts.
2:09Yeah. It's what I usually do. I'm not usually, but last year I did a head coaches draft.
2:14And this is kind of sort of because as this is near, I find fun to talk about Ben because coach of
2:20the year is much more narrative driven than assistant of the year.
2:23In my opinion, I see the year is really just like, who's the best.
2:27Whereas coach of the year is, is basically become the honorary turnaround job, which we will get to.
2:32So if assistant coach of the year is really, who's the best who won it again last year.
2:37Can I remember who I picked? I didn't pick Josh McDaniel.
2:40I actually forget who did I pick McFangio. I think I picked defensive.
2:44I know I picked a defensive coach. I can't remember if I picked Fangio or someone else.
2:49It really should be like right now because so many offense, the head coaches are play callers.
2:54It actually like there's way more defensive masterminds at coordinator than offensive coordinator.
2:57So anyways, let's rip the band and start with a big word.
3:01Okay. Sorry. That was a lot of preamble. Let's rip the bandaid and start with the biggest award MVP.
3:06Let's do that. Let's not make them wait. Let's get right to it.
3:10All right. I had it down to two. I w so I should have come up.
3:14We're going to do a pick and then a dark horse.
3:17Now. I wish I did a non quarterback for my dark.
3:21I just looked at my list. It's all quarterbacks.
3:23You're never, I mean like, like it's 15. The last 16 winners have been quarterbacks.
3:27I'm almost 2012 agent Peterson. I just don't think you're ever you're going to see a non quarterback win in a long time.
3:34I had miles Garrett either third or fourth last year in my final five because of odor.
3:39So I, yeah, I'd like to, I'd like to do a non quarterback, but I'm going to go first.
3:44So I considered the, the, the big three, Alan Jackson, my homes in terms of repeats repeats can be a little tricky.
3:50Right. Um, usually not going to get like the same year.
3:53That would be Stafford. Who's obviously total possibility to repeat, but it's not, you know, it's, it's hard to repeat.
3:59Cause people like new blood. Um, I think there's two guys that I was kind of going back and forth between two other quarterbacks.
4:06One is quarterback at the camp that I went to in Los Angeles where I don't think it is more like buzz
4:12levels around the Chargers offense right now, both in side and outside Chargers building are at like, it feels like unsustainable.
4:18Mike McDaniel is, is feeling himself in a level previously untouched, even by Mike McDaniel in terms of like some of the press conference stuff.
4:25It's cool to see. Mike McDaniel in terms of like, I don't know if I'm going to go first.
4:30I'm going to go first. I'm going to go first.
4:33I'm going to go first. I'm going to go first.
4:36I just, I think it's a good. Well, I think there's a good.
4:40I'm going to go first. Oh, well, then an editorial form is the design, which I think it's going to go to,
4:46I think, there's a little bit, I think it's like, like, like, this is the main line and the whole set together.
4:52Wow. That's like, well, I think I guess it's like that.
4:55He's never wanted and it's I guess part of that is just seeing all the quarterback rankings come in this offseason and
5:01just seeing how much the league loves themselves in Joe Burrow and Sandoz always excellent QB tears came in and you know
5:07it seems like the only ding that people have on him which is a correct one which is the injuries right and
5:14obviously he would have to have a completely healthy season to do this but my feeling Ben is like if he does
5:20have a completely healthy season I think the floor on a burrow season with basically the offense being entirely the same the
5:26offensive line being sneaky decent something been kind of hammering all offseason makes me think that he's got a really good shot
5:32at it they have the according to the FTN fantasy almanac they have the 32nd ranked schedule in the NFL this year
5:38just outright or just or just the past defenses uh outright that's crazy I didn't know that so I just feel like
5:45the everything is in place there's no contract dama with the wide receivers mentioned the offensive line um defense I feel like
5:51the past defense will be better sufficient but it'll still be the story of the season will still be oh Joe Burrow
5:57and this crappy offensive line this crappy defense even if they're approved so I don't know I just I went back and
6:03forth to you know him to Herbert I understand the Herbert optimism and I guess my feeling was like if that happens
6:10though do you think the story will be Justin Herbert or do you think the story will be Mike McDaniel and that
6:16was kind of where I ended up thinking because like I said this is it's a very great narrative driven award so
6:22you could have just been basically reading off my notes the entire time I have MVP Joe Burrow oh I thought you
6:28heard her dang it no I have no people don't like it when we agree too much okay so I have uh
6:34right I've right at the top of my line narrative driven award has not yet won the award has been speaking super
6:41heavily and happily about this team has you know he would have earned it he's deserved it kind of legacy like you
6:47know the many many years toiling away at the helm I right offensive environment is better parentheses offensive line close parentheses but
6:53nobody's going to want to talk about it because they haven't added anybody new right nobody's going to be like oh well
6:59their second year offensive line coach Scott Peters and their second year guard Dylan Fairchild deserve the no it's going to be
7:05all about Joe Burrow defensively let's say the Bengals defense is a lot better and that that's one of the reasons why
7:12the team is overall much more successful yeah you're not going to get like Al Goldenhype you're not going to get Dexter
7:18Lawrence defensive player of the year like even if they're doing incredible things like that's just not how those awards get handed
7:24out and one of the number one greatest predictors we have for which quarterback wins MVP is just generic team success right
7:30uh 15 last 16 winners were quarterbacks of those 15 14 were the first or second playoff seat out of their conference
7:36right so like you know back in the day the teams that got the buy right 12 of them were the first
7:43seed Stafford last year's the fifth seed is really the only exception and that was because the Rams like so obviously the
7:49second best team in the NFC but could not be the one of the two seed because they share the division with
7:55the Seahawks and so uh if the Bengals offensive line is better so they can run it a little bit more and
8:01the defense is better and they just win more games it will just mean Bengals one seed or Bengals two seed which
8:07historically means that quarterbacks can be getting MVP conversations because they're winning games and then QB wins just takes over so to
8:14me like Burrow is without question the best like bet right now in terms of MVP Herbert used to be way lower
8:20down on the odds and he's since like risen a ton I think Herbert's got a very good case for it but
8:26if they have an unbelievable offensive year and like two is doing nothing in Atlanta the entire story will be Mike McDaniel
8:32get assistant coach types on and so forth there'll be a different outlet for voters relative to in Cincinnati there's not gonna
8:38be another outlet it's just all gonna be Joe so to avoid sounding overly cynical because I you know we both did
8:45a lot of I do want to emphasize it's both a narrative word and a performance word and I think we are
8:51both in agreement here that the Cincinnati Bengals offense should cook it's almost I think it gets a little bit of a
8:57short shrift in offseason podcasts and discussions what's a short shrift short shrift like not as that's a phrase right I've never
9:03heard this before I love this it's short short shrift little attention or care Shakespearean okay relax Yale geez um wow Richard
9:09third okay uh so I do think part of the reason why we don't talk about it as much is because there's
9:16not a lot to talk about it's pretty much the same right like they are like and and I think that's another
9:22part of the reason why I I'm a believer like this offensive line is the same and and was a good unit
9:28last year totally improved so much better than they were early in Joe Burr's career any of young players right like your
9:34Dylan Fairchild's mims already feels like took the leap but like who could get even better um I'm not saying that the
9:40you know a top 10 offensive line of football but they're certainly average now and in my estimation and I do just
9:47think like you know yeah we can talk about little tweaks maybe getting Eric all back he's gonna do something or maybe
9:53the run game has a little bit more juice or I don't but but for the most part you know the sense
9:59that we know what it is right like we know what the offense is we know what it's gonna look like with
10:05Joe Burrow um and there's like some certainty in that like if he's healthy is there any world in which this isn't
10:12a top seven eight offense no and even if like the thing that makes them feel better and more dangerous than the
10:18past job or offense is that they can run the ball a little better because they like have a decently good success
10:24rate in terms of running it out of the gun because the line is better this is still a team like in
10:30the last four years with Burrow they've had a pass rate over expectation of 4.6 percent that would have been just barely
10:36second last year among all the teams so a healthy Joe Burrow season they're probably just throwing the ball more when you
10:43adjust for context than any other team in football if you want to talk me into the defense will be so much
10:49better that they're going to be running the ball in the second half all the time so nursing these leads like sure
10:55I think the defense is a little better I don't think the defense is that much better so I still think they're
11:01going to be in enough shootouts or like one of the one of the big feathers in Joe's cap to this point
11:07in his career has been that he has along even the top quarterbacks the Lamars the Joshes the Mahomes is the the
11:14Herberts he has more like 300 yard games there's a 50 yard games against playoff opponents right like he tends to have
11:20like really big bright light big performance games I think he's still going to have the opportunity for those this year and
11:26then also they're just going to win more games period because the defense is going to be better and so I got
11:32this there's no reason there shouldn't be a very good Burrow offense and there's no reason it should lose the hallmarks of
11:38what Burrow has been which is I can drop back 50 times a game I can't bet up 400 passing yards and
11:45I can do it against top defenses has that um Thursday night game against Baltimore week 17 feels like that could be
11:51if he shows I do think the Ravens defense is going to be really good and might actually touch on that a
11:57little I would love a Lamar MVP bet this year because I think that Declan Doyle is the best offensive coordinator he's
12:03going to have had it's just that he's a two-time MVP and it's just so hard to talk his off and then
12:09getting a third time MVP and again that's another thing with like we don't discuss with Burrow right he's never if it's
12:16kind of you know I mean he's been hurt half of his seasons in the NFL and that's a big part of
12:22why and so obviously that's a big you know you're taking a little bit of risk here with him or Lamar in
12:28terms of health but um it felt safer to me than the repeats and like we discussed with Herbert I think that's
12:34going to be viewed as a team-wide effort um okay dark horse you can go first because I went first MVP uh
12:40please don't have the same one I have Trevor Lawrence we haven't even like we've barely spoken the last like three weeks
12:47literally I was like don't I did not tell you any of my picks I didn't tell you this is not good
12:53Trevor Lawrence second half of the season 38 paper dropbacks third average no those are my notes don't read my stats uh
12:59I just did the Jags I just did the AFC South preview so we went into depth about my enthusiasm for Liam
13:05Cohen for the receiving group uh for Trevor Lawrence all right what why did you pick Trevor because I imagine it's a
13:11pretty similar case yeah so back half of the season right they're dropping back more consistently they're also really pushing the ball
13:18a lot right and you see with the Jacoby Myers Parker Washington Brian Thomas era Jags that we can just be a
13:24a team that gets multiple guys into the concept down the field we expect one of our guys to win we have
13:30contested catch players in Parker and Jacoby we have a speed player in Brian Thomas Jr we have a quarterback that's just
13:36for like for wherever you land on the Trevor Lawrence spectrum of he's good he's great he's ascending he's overrated the thing
13:43that he does well is he'll land on the back foot he'll throw the first read he'll he'll rip it so if
13:49you have good offensive design and just good receivers I mean he's just going to pepper down the field with a golden
13:55arm he also can run and can scramble can get loose a little bit so he can score rushing touchdowns as well
14:01so you can accumulate counting stats that way I brought up the fact that it's first and second seed sort of teams
14:07that succeed well Jacksonville's in a division right now where like you know the talk of the town is Houston's everybody's buzzy
14:14on Houston Super Bowl odds I'm right there with them I think Houston's going to be great but Jacksonville is right behind
14:20that team over the stretch of the season there's no reason to believe they got measurably worse and if Houston for whatever
14:26reason falters Jacksonville's got a really nice path I think they're in the AFC South and also has then the potential to
14:32kind of be one of those early seeds take people by surprise and you're not going to get Liam Cohn um uh
14:38coach of the year hype I think this year because his opportunity was last year and he kind of missed that window
14:45uh so Lawrence Lawrence got it for that one the other name I had written down for like far dark horse I
14:51mean like if he has a good season he's probably winning comeback player of the year but can Kyler be good enough
14:57in Minnesota to just leapfrog comeback player of the year go straight to MVP I couldn't really get there but again like
15:03that team throws a bunch in the red zone they have a chance to be you know much more balanced have a
15:09big bounce back season and so Kyler was the other guy noodled on for the dark horse here put a pin in
15:16Minnesota because they're gonna come we'll be back but not yeah that that's that's the darkest of dark horses um yeah I
15:22think with Lawrence too um you know there's been a lot of skepticism can he put an entire season together and live
15:28up to the first round pick and all of that he's he's a pretty divisive quarterback so I think there could be
15:34a little bit of a settle the doubters thing going on this season I mean I share your enthusiasm of the offense
15:40I think you know you always want to be hesitant to put too much stock into a single half of a season
15:47for either a unit or a player but I think with him because of the new play caller and the fact that
15:53it felt like the it took a second for not just obviously when you acquired uh Jacoby Myers for everybody to settle
15:59into the correct roles but also for Lawrence and the entire group to have command of the offense and um less than
16:05you know pre-snap penalties and kind of the operation to settle that to me bodes well for this year with the continuity
16:11that they have don't love the offensive line still um that's the one thing that's holding me that ultimately I I didn't
16:18put them in my top 10 which was really hard because I wanted to they were just outside the offensive line gave
16:24me some pause but yeah I I'm I'm definitely buying the Jags it was really I had a hard time deciding between
16:30the Texans and the Jags I ultimately went Texans but I didn't feel great about it at all and I had both
16:36of them in the playoffs so yeah I trust Texans defense the most that was it I was just like ah we
16:42can use the best unit in the NFL um yeah I really do wish like I would be I would be very
16:49much there on Jags 2026 hype I believe in the quarterback I'm a believer in the schemer I'm a believer in the
16:55pass catchers I'm a believer in the defense if you could get me there on the running game I'd be you know
17:01full-throated I'd be all over it yeah I like I will believe in Vaisal Tootin and Chris Rodriguez behind this line at
17:07the moment at which I see it happen and then to Liam's credit like he was a he's a very clever running
17:14game designer he did a great job elevating that Bucs offensive line he was there with Harold Goodwin right so like it
17:20could happen but you know I'm waiting on that one it was so much smoke and mirrors last season and then what
17:26you know again they went strange is going to be healthy I think he's a very good blocking tight end they went
17:32out and got a full-on blocking tight end in the draft whatever you think of that pick it was obviously pretty is
17:38that how you say it I so I am terrible at saying it and I needed people to say it for me
17:45on the draft show because I was stumbling over it so much I would just point at Cole Kubelik and he'd be
17:51able to say it for me I'm just saying Berkercher all right okay I don't think we have the same offensive player
17:57of the year I really don't so you go first and then I'll tell you mine yeah you don't I picked a
18:03tight end who's never won it before I want Brock Bowers to win offensive player of the year listen we're in we're
18:09in the tight end era okay I don't know if you've heard we're drafting them like the like Borkerker we're taking them
18:16all early we're playing multiple tight end sets tight end is the flavor du jour on offense I have a guy who
18:22was a rookie had 1,194 receiving yards he broke Mike Dick as record for rookie receiving yards for a tight end which
18:28had stood since 1961 all right he had 112 receptions in his rookie season Bowers did which set the record for rookie
18:34season receptions for all positions not just high end including wide receiver he did all of this and he got one vote
18:40for rookie of the year because Jaden Daniels was rocking right and so it is tough because Bowers in order to get
18:47offensive player of the year I think has to have like the best season of his career voters need to feel that
18:53way and that means that he's got to like come after Trey McBride's 126 receptions from last year right the most votes
18:59a tight end has ever gotten for offensive player of the year is Travis Kelsey in 2020 he got three right we
19:05just like even even in like the elite tight end recent seasons we just have not seen voters want to be willing
19:11to pour it on the guy but last year with Clint Kubiak in Seattle they made Jackson Smith and Jigwa a high
19:18volume player to a degree to which we simply just like have not seen in the NFL Smith and Jigwa was it
19:24was accounted for more than 40 percent of the team's receiving yards he was over a 37 percent team on market share
19:30in terms of receptions of targets like a historical not since 2012 Brandon Marshall with the Bears who we seen one player
19:36responsible for such a big piece of the pie in the receiving game if if we assume and I think rightfully we
19:42make this assumption rightfully that one of the things Kubiak does best is play smoke and mirrors play you know whack-a-mole hide
19:49that star pass catcher and just find numerous creative ways Smith and Jigwa out of the backfield Smith and Jigwa isolated to
19:55the backside Smith and Jigwa in the slide they lined him up everywhere they threw at him at all three levels if
20:01we if we say that Kubiak's good at that that's his his magic fairy dust who does he sprinkle that on in
20:07Las Vegas I think it is emphatically Bowers right I don't I think it's Trey Tucker I don't think it's Jalen Naylor
20:13like to me it's very clearly that's the player he's going to funnel the targets to so I do think that best
20:20receiving season by a tight end period is in the cards for Bowers and I think given given how tight end pilled
20:26we're becoming this offseason I think if that season gets stood up against like average very good like wide receiver one seasons
20:32like I don't think anybody's putting up JSN numbers again those numbers are crazy you know average running back one number seasons
20:38where nobody's scoring like 30 touchdowns like Jonathan Taylor was about to last year then I think he's gonna have legs for
20:44the award and so I'm I I'm huge on Bowers from like a you know fantasy football perspective like a season-long betting
20:51perspective fantasy perspective he's about to get so much volume I just hope that it's enough to win this award so this
20:57would also qualify as a dark horse pick right because he's I mean he has longer odds to win the award than
21:03by dark horse pick does yes that is correct but I don't care um so what sorry I was furiously looking up
21:09something up because I wanted to confirm something which would make this award possible I suppose which was the last time a
21:16player won who wasn't in a top 10 offense because I don't think either of us expect the Raiders to have a
21:22top 10 offense um and then and it was Justin Jefferson in 2022 uh that season the Vikings were 20th in offensive
21:28DVOA I mean that's what I was entirely possible right for voters to say just you were so obviously dominant at your
21:34position and um deserving of this I am skeptical of that offense so he would have to be unbelievable I feel like
21:40in a bad offense or what I think is going to be a pretty dubious one and we'll see um you know
21:47I I I I I think he's going to get so much volume that that helps your case uh I just if
21:53you're a defense that does everything your power to take away from him I just don't know how the Raiders are moving
21:59the ball otherwise consistently um right now with that group so I'm a bit skeptical uh I also don't know my offensive
22:05rookie of the year Fernando Mendoza baby now that's one of the one of the tricky things is I think that if
22:11the Raiders offense is net better than we think it is how early does Mendoza play because if Mendoza gets 13 starts
22:18and the Raiders offense is pleasantly above average then Bowers could have 400 receptions and 40 touchdowns it's all it's a rookie
22:24of the year is going to Mendoza because we just give that award to quarterbacks so that's the other tricky thing about
22:30figuring out the narrative side of it for Bowers yeah right the narrative side of it it's I mean last year was
22:36Jacksonson Jacob of course and that didn't feel like a narrative award that was like you just he's a monster and he
22:42it was very close obviously between him and the guy who I'm about to pick but um you know I it's hard
22:49right now because it's such a top it's such a stacked field at the moment you have so the the favorite is
22:55Jameer Gibbs who's makes perfect sense of course he just got paid Robinson right behind him I'm a little bit apprehensive about
23:01offense so I kind of want to stay off it from it even though he's going to get a ton of volume
23:07too and then you have all of the you know the stud receivers of those stud receivers I mentioned Joe um Jefferson
23:13is an interesting one to monitor if there's a possibility of the aforementioned Kyler comeback season but Nakua to me is most
23:20likely to be in the best offense in football and if I'm I'm a little apprehensive of Devante Adams playing an entire
23:26season at his age with the hamstring last year and Niku himself has had some injuries so there's not you know there
23:32is an element of risk here but I just thought last year he took such a major step as a receiver as
23:38a complete receiver and even before that he was already awesome but I just feel like I know I've said I'm a
23:44broken record on this I just feel like people don't appreciate enough how arguably the best or one of the two best
23:51swap blocking receivers in football became one of the best deep threats in football as well like that combination makes no sense
23:57he was never winning on like downfield one-on-one verticals until last year he was just like I just do this now I
24:03was like oh yeah cool the most valuable thing sick awesome I the contested catches the body control the I mean it
24:09was just unbelievable all three levels and you know if you're doing the 13 personnel he's staying on the field a lot
24:15well you know like I said especially with Adams I'm a little bit dubious of the full season with him um I
24:22just think at the end of the year it's not I'm not getting cute with this I just think he's gonna have
24:28the most dominant receiving threat or season if he's healthy chase is close he's up there but you know with Higgins there
24:34it's a little bit different I just think it's hard for me to imagine a world in which Pukenikua doesn't isn't at
24:40minimum a top two or three receiver again yeah I wonder how like how often it is that a quarterback can win
24:47MVP and then like an ensuing subsequent or even like just close to consecutive year his wide receiver wins offensive player of
24:53the year because it feels like any good Nakua season is a good Stafford season and right but you don't like again
24:59you don't typically see back-to-backs on MVP and so I wonder how much that yeah that funnels the attention to Nakua um
25:05yeah the cool thing about Nakua that I feel strongly about relative to like Chase and Jefferson is Nakua like at this
25:11point I think we can say with like a great degree of confidence is scheme proof because like in the sense that
25:18defensively you can't really just like take the guy away because Sean always has the pen last Sean always wins and so
25:24like well like I think last year like they struggled to get easy targets to Justin Jefferson when they were dealing with
25:30quarterback issues like I just in any world in which Sean's running the Rams offense and I think they're going to get
25:36easy targets to Pukenikua like they've never failed to do that so the the floor is extremely high when he's on the
25:42field I do wonder too if he'll benefit a little bit from about like he might have had a case last year
25:49like yeah he broke a he broke a 10 yards after the catch first in first downs 78% catch rate uh 10
25:55receiving touchdowns and a rushing touchdown he just finished a second behind JSN in total yards so it's yeah I mean he's
26:01he's a beast I I it's a little bit of a safe pick take the best offense take the sure thing at
26:07quarterback and it's not such a stacked you know receiving group where I worry at all about somebody cutting into his target
26:13chair even if they do lean in more to the tight ends dark horses I'll go first uh I'm gonna go a
26:20Murray and Hampton there's no way dude this is so bad I'm surprised that didn't have higher odds yep plus 4,017th in
26:26odds he's below Rishi Rice a player who I'm not even sure will like get actual usage this year he's tied with
26:32Kenneth Walker is high with Ashton Gentty no Hampton's got a crazy season question for you is there a single player in
26:38the NFL who got the uh we call it the moving up on board who got a single bigger upgrade in total
26:44circumstances when you consider the coaching change with Mike McDaniel the offensive lineman coming back knock on wood the additions at blockers
26:51bringing in fullback blocking tight like have you seen anyone in better better hands right now than a Marian Hampton have you
26:57seen Hampton's numbers when he runs the football with Slater and all actually on the field it's zero carries for zero yards
27:03it's never happened right he's yet to have the opportunity even with those guys right and then right you folded the fact
27:09that last year they were starting Gadsden at tight end who Gadsden himself said at a press conference two days ago he
27:15was like I was getting thrown around in the running game like not like I was rough I was bad I was
27:22getting thrown around for his words accurate he was watching his own film out of boy um yes then you had to
27:28be but calling and joke in the building and then with McDaniel uh McDaniel is going to get him in space so
27:34much easily like you brought up the the running game and the ball carrying aspect Hampton's also about to get like 50
27:40catches like Hampton can catch the football I know they're using Keaton Mitchell a lot that way in camp but like I
27:46think Keaton's like a 10-15 snap a game player maybe I think Hampton's still going to be taking like 40-45 snaps per
27:53game and Herbert likes to check the ball down so man no Hampton Hampton is a very fast very large man who
27:59breaks a lot of tackles who was getting hit behind the line of scrimmage on like 57% of his runs last season
28:05that number's about to flip on its head yeah I'm interested in seeing how the run game like because we assume it's
28:11just going to be copy paste dolphins um but he's such a different back from not such but he's a he's he
28:17is a different style of back from Devon Achan and I wonder if Mike McDaniel will have a little bit more comfortable
28:24running him between the tackles um it's funny Ben I've been like catching up you know doing these uh division previews listening
28:30to interviews and reading interviews with coaches it feels like the entire league just watched the Mike McDaniel run game this offseason
28:36and is trying to borrow copy steal in some fashion but the chargers get the real thing and I feel like I
28:42yeah it's we're talking about him as a dark horse but like it feels like it shouldn't be a dark horse it's
28:49it's fair because like I said it's so stacked on top there's so many offensive superstars but you know like we were
28:55talking about with this charge's offense if the run game ascends the way everybody anticipates it well he will surely be the
29:01beneficiary um okay defensive player of the year I have a boring but I might be the favorite my pick is boring
29:07my pick is boring and is the favorite it's miles Garrett okay I went will Anderson Jr yeah um okay here's the
29:13thing about miles Garrett miles Garrett had 23 sacks last year on a very bad team and now he's playing for a
29:20very good team yeah like there's only been three repeat defensive player of the years uh Donald was last one to do
29:26it for the Rams 2017 2018 JJ Watt did it 2014 and Lawrence Taylor did it in 81 but like this is
29:32the sort of award where you set the sack record we give you defensive player of the year what if he just
29:38leads the league in sacks again what are you gonna do just be like no this time it's Nick Benito no you're
29:44gonna give it to him again and and I also think the team change I think benefits him a lot in terms
29:51of like narratively I think if he does in Cleveland okay for Jim Schwartz you know so on and so forth yeah
29:57but then I think like if he goes to the Rams and let's say the Rams end up the one seed in
30:03the NFC and they they go and they they they barely tip the scales over the Seahawks it's gonna be like lauded
30:09as well yes because they went and they got 16 sacks 17 sacks from miles Garrett whatever it ends up being um
30:15and so to me like it like there's going to be assuming the Rams have the year that they're expected to have
30:22right they're the favorites in the NFC then Garrett you know McDuffie obviously could have like a ton of stats as well
30:28but Garrett's the one who's more likely to accumulate counting stats is going to get a lot of the the attribution there
30:34and so I don't know I have no reason to believe his production is going to decline I don't think edge rushers
30:40endure like wear on the tires like oh no he had so many pass rushers last year like no they're still going
30:46to use him at a very high percentage of the snaps they're going to use them on the sack getting downs and
30:53he converts pressures into sacks at a historically good level even before the 23 sack season so yeah Miles Garrett man why
30:59not I might have overthought this but my two things were one the repeat and like you said it can happen for
31:05sure and then I thought he's gonna I was Garrett's gonna get double teamed and then the rest of the Rams offensive
31:11defensive line is just gonna go crazy and it might just be like too many guys defensive player of the year Kobe
31:17Turner I mean the Aaron Donald being back thing is is going to be a big oh I have heard about that
31:24yeah yeah I've heard a couple whispers somebody mentioned that that might happen my feeling was it might it might just be
31:30perceived as like too many stars but again if he comes anywhere close to approximating what he did last year in sacks
31:36you're right um so williamson jr another very safe and boring pick um I have them as the best defense in football
31:42I think he's going to have well opportunities is one thing right because he's been very very good and his numbers keep
31:48going up up up but um I think he's one of those guys who could hit another level with the improvement that
31:55he can see shows he's such a complete player but last year the advanced metrics love him the other thing I like
32:01though is he has opportunities it's interesting like so Daniel Hunter gets double teamed more than Will Anderson jr um and I
32:07was looking at all the elite guys double team rates and you know miles we got through the roof Michael Parsons was
32:1338% before he got hurt uh Will Anderson jr is part of a fairly small group of guys who get double teamed
32:20under 20% of the time along with Nick Bonito and Brian Burns and that's basically it so I thought the opportunity will
32:26be there he gets to brush opposite Daniel Hunter he gets to play in front of incredible secondary who will buy time
32:32I just feel like this could be the young player taking yet another he's already one of the you know three or
32:38four of us taking out a leap as part of an elite defensive unit and he's the face of it um so
32:44yeah I went to go build a dark horse case for Daniel Hunter and my theory was we're all so excited about
32:51Will Anderson what if Will has a classic Will season great TFLs great production line by like 12 sacks and Daniel has
32:57like 17 then Daniel's gonna get it and I went I looked at the numbers I was like oh wait shoot no
33:03like yeah Daniel gets the primary pass rushing attention still which opens up Will to have I think more of the spike
33:09season than Daniel has obviously like I don't think you're wrong picking in either direction but Will's got more of the right
33:15young ascending player just signed his big extension talked a lot about what it could be if the Jags lead properly Texans
33:22well imagine if the Texans end up being that Broncos caliber team that one seed caliber team with like a good offense
33:28and an uproarious defense like you said Will Anderson's the face of that though you know Derek Stingley with the way he
33:34addresses the football like if I don't like betting on corners for defensive player of the year if I'm going to do
33:40it it's going to be Stingley because the nature of that defense because of how well he produces on the ball the
33:46way he addresses the football is such a funny way to put I imagine Derek Stingley address the football holding the ball
33:53like Yorick I'm going to intercept you um yeah I mean like the I think you just want a piece of that defense and Anderson Jr.
34:00seems like the easiest pick there uh dark horse I'll go first I definitely don't think you have this one so I
34:06was tempted by Josh Hines Allen because I'm very I looked at that I looked at that I like the Jags defense
34:12I think last year he underproduced in sacks relative to the amount of pressure he was getting which is another thing I
34:19like to look at it's a little bit weird but I'm gonna just say it Jalen Carter on the Philadelphia Eagles my
34:25dark horse pick um I didn't think that the Eagles are gonna have a top five defense that the defense is pod
34:31pretty hard not to see it that way and I think he had a bit of weird last season right um started
34:37off very strange felt like it was a little bit inconsistent from him relative to early in his career uh to me
34:43taking a step back looking at this defense looking at the way they're built looking at what it all revolves around and
34:50I think thinking through what he is capable of as a pressure getter I feel like there's another level this could be
34:56the year he hits those like Chris Jones type numbers so right yeah the shoulder's better this way down the odds yeah
35:02he's healthy and from all accounts from camp is absolutely crushing it so give me some Jalen Carter I just scrolled real
35:08quick the last non-Aaron Donald defensive tackle to win defensive player of the year was Warren Sapp in 1999 man it's been
35:14a minute since a non-Donald player was a caliber enough to get that award home it'd be a big deal if Carter
35:21had that that sort of a season who's your dark horse uh I have Kyle Hamilton down here uh plus 5,000 he's
35:27tied for a little dark horse yeah and I think that everybody knows Kyle Hamilton is the best safety in football and
35:33so it's just a moment of okay how can we narratively get him there and it's hey what about a defensive scheme
35:39change is it really that big of a scheme change probably not moving from Zach or to Jesse Minter but in a
35:45we have a we have a defensive minded head coach let's say the Ravens and and I don't think this will happen
35:52but let's say the Ravens become a like defense and run the football sort of a team who wins more grimy games
35:58who wins more slow uh scoring games Hamilton's the sort of guy who plays in enough positions to accumulate enough counting stats
36:04right it's hard to win defensive player of the year from like deep safety because you're just policing the deep third and
36:10like discouraging targets last safety to win this war was Troy Palomaro right in 2010 being in the box being your line
36:16of scrimmage creating sacks creating forced fumbles we know that Hamilton's a big bat the pass guy right can we convert some
36:23of those into interceptions there's just this the chance that like we're in week 15 and Hamilton's got like that scorecard that's
36:29like first player in NFL history to have like 100 tackles 10 tackles for loss five sacks three interceptions three fours almost
36:35like you know just like it's just like a laundry list of plays on the ball that put him in a spot
36:41where if it's a quiet year for edges right everybody's kind of got yeah yeah yeah yeah then Hamilton pops out he
36:47kind of also is the inverse of your Brock Bowers like everybody's talking about tight ends his position is sort of the
36:54I don't really think people vote that way they're like what is the current meta of the NFL and is it the
37:00big nickel slash position and I had that on my notes I didn't say it there but I did have it I
37:06was like it's a moment could I just do on the little Trey Hendrickson maybe having a crazy high double digit sack
37:12season because I don't that's actually really where's he at odds wise I didn't even see him I don't know that's a
37:19good one but you know with the additions with getting a bit of Matabuike back if one of those other young edge
37:25rushers takes I did look at speaking of defensive tackles I did look at a Jeffrey Simmons at plus 10,000 Jeffrey Simmons
37:31in a Robert's style of defense is about to be unsafe film all right I'm excited to see it all right uh
37:37you kind of foreshadowed one of the people I want to talk about let's take a quick break come back and do
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38:58by argenics all right i'll go first so i tease this so i might as well just get to it i got
39:04jesse mentor for coach of the year for the baltimore ravens um so coach of the year is the turnaround award right
39:10and but the problem is i don't see any obvious turnaround candidates that really jumped out to me as being like the
39:16mike rape i remember last year i think i actually did pick mike rabel when we did this pod last year when
39:23i did this pod last year it was like either gonna be mike rabel or ben johnson and yes i don't feel
39:29that way this season about any turnaround jobs so baltimore is not quite a turnaround right but they were eight nine so
39:35they did have a losing record um and i think that minter has the chance to do a unit turnaround so maybe
39:41he'll get some credit for that which is to say i and i've been those secrets about this i think this defense
39:47has the potential to really make a leap this season and some of it has nothing to do with jesse mentor some
39:54of it has to do with the additions and matt weekday coming back they were 30th and adjusted games loss on defense
40:00um but a lot of it does have to with jesse mentor i mean i like i've said this before but like
40:06la man what he did there going from a defense that was 2019 e paper play the year before he came and
40:12then going back to back seventh is pretty remarkable i think that also is a group that's frankly less talented than the
40:18one he has in baltimore so in my mind if this team does a complete turnaround obviously cries a full healthy season
40:25from lavar he could get a lot of credit for the improvements that i think we're going to see in this defense
40:31yeah and we see a lot of first year coaches right we see uh davil in 22 with the giants obviously variable
40:37last year naggy in 2018 won this award when mcvay in 2017 naggy 2018 winning this award which is one of my
40:43favorites just historical events that matt naggy bears coach of the year um you you are very high on the ravens defense
40:49i can't fully get there i i need to see the edge rusher room before i believe in the edge rusher room
40:56i wasn't my green guy hendrickson at his age is a questionable question to me and then corner situation where like how
41:02much do you like a nate wiggins and then how good do you feel about the depth behind nate wiggins if if
41:08he can do it i'll be one of the biggest mentor defensive uh excuse me head coach of the year winner proponents
41:14by week eight because i feel like i'm coming in preseason lower on this defense the corners in la they were like
41:21rotate not i mean i'm still like fine but like come on like cam hard like it was yes i'm just saying
41:27like i think you know they were showing that he can make something better than the zone of his parts it's great
41:33they were a super zone heavy defense but most zone heavy defenses that are very good are like this defenses that give
41:39up a bad success rate but then they have turnovers and takeaways they lock it down to the red zone he was
41:45a high zone defense who didn't give up a high success rate do you know how rare that is that like that's
41:52what the fangio boys all aspire to and menders wouldn't pull it off so there's a chance mint is just like yes
41:58always felt like there were like four guys around the football yeah anyways yeah i but you mentioned the first year head
42:04coach thing i mean no one else really jumped out i who so who's your pick maybe you have one because i
42:10i was looking at the first years the turnarounds and nothing jumped out to me then so vrabel wins it it's his
42:16second stint as a head coach he takes a team that was just absolute bottom you know world dwelling a four-win team
42:23brings up to a 13-win team and robert saw his second tenure as a head coach now moving you know not the
42:29jets but with the titans he's gonna take a terrible titans team and probably not take them to 14 and three but
42:35i do think that the titans are capable of making the the five game jump right 12 of the last 15 winners
42:41for coach of the year have added at least five wins to their the team's record from the previous season to then
42:47the upcoming season that includes both the first year coaches then the guys who have been floating around for a little bit
42:54and so to me when i go to look for coach of the year i just go to okay who was the
43:00bottom seller dwelling last year who can i talk myself into being pretty good i think this pass rush can be pretty
43:06good pretty good i think this pass rush can be excellent all right i'll i'll escalate the adjectives i'll give a hoot
43:12i think the pass rush can be sensational under robert sala um like free agency do i love the amount of running
43:18that was spent on wandel robinson into a lawn that Taylor into cordell flott no the team's better all right this team
43:25gonna have a winning record because you ain't winning this unless you have a winning record they can be nine and eight
43:31okay that's that's a that's a six game improvement right yeah uh yeah three and 14 to nine and eight that's plus
43:37six absolutely they go respectable 500 yeah the the brian dable first time hanging out with a quarterback jump all right he
43:43gave the jackson dart he gave the daniel jones just a quick shot in the arm that is the quarterback running game
43:49and an rpo or two i'm not carnell looks good i'm drinking the kool-aid on titans uh let me throw out some
43:56other options for you then i don't know how i became a i'm drinking the kool-aid on the titans but you gotta
44:02get to a winning record to for the dude to win the war that's why i'm putting your feet to the fire
44:08a little bit um okay let me throw out some other options i mentioned him kevin o'connell if the kyler thing works
44:14out he's got a real good shot at it this year right um he won it in 24 right with the donald
44:20year uh oh yeah right yes yeah i don't know how often can a guy win it in two or three years
44:27two different coaches that'd be kind of new i voted for dan campbell that year personally oh ron rivera rivera run it in 13 and 15.
44:34um okay i'm gonna keep throwing out some names uh clint kubiak was one who for this all the titans reasons the
44:40turnaround if the rookie quarterback looks good if they somehow i just have trouble seeing them get into nine i i was
44:46trying to you know figure out if they could get to the winning record and i started a little bit with that
44:53um kellen moore can i interest you in some kellen moore the same for to win the nfc south and i'm a
44:59saints division winner believer yes ma'am it's elite uh a pro fortunately like so i voted for mike mcdonald last year who
45:05should have won but it's again it's because of the it's not a two-year turnaround award otherwise i would say ben johnson
45:11and liam cohen both should be contenders but that's just not how it works which is stupid yeah i could see i
45:17could see either one getting it from a like like if johnson or cohen becomes like emphatically like a sean mcveigh cal
45:24shanahan level of schemer for sure though i have my dark horse you have not said yet the one guy who i
45:30really like my dark horse is brian schottenheimer it's brian schottenheimer yeah i think schottenheimer is such a good they were a
45:36seven win team last season they win the nfc east they win double digit games they win on the back of a
45:42really explosive offense and and shoddy's running shot his offense man they don't know exactly this is the pure shotty yes yeah
45:48and uh you know he made i mean you bring in if christian parker is what people think he can be if
45:55the defense approaches average um and i think like um you know he's schottenheimer's like really well liked so that's the thing
46:01i mean he's really really liked both in the building and around the league and i feel like people would love to
46:07yeah give him a little credit for i mean this was a hire that nobody was terribly enthusiastic around maybe some people
46:13were but most part it felt like a bit of an afterthought and if he smokes it this season i think he
46:20would deserve a league get some credit for that all right assistant of the year uh because it's it's mike m'daniel so
46:26let's just choose people other than mike m'daniel yes so i think mike m'daniel should win it um i will say like
46:32the reason why i didn't go for brian schottenheimer was because i do think christian parker's got a pretty good shot at
46:38winning this award cowboys defense last year was if not 32nd then 31st and pretty much everything that we look at in
46:44terms of like passing game metrics is points per drive allowed epa per drive so just a unit that that lampooned and
46:51otherwise playoff caliber season from the offense well parker steps in and i'm not positive this will be a great defense in
46:57september and you know okay coming out of of training camp they're gonna have to play some rookies some serious snaps caleb
47:03downs jay sean barham they're gonna have a couple guys who are coming back from injury you know sioban revel hasn't seen
47:09a lot of play action time you're gonna have kobe duran and jaylen thompson it's a bunch of newness especially in the
47:15back seven in november december we start to figure out what we want our pass rush groupings to look like right how
47:22would we want to use gary does donovan as a rock who take a step quinnon williams obviously i think is going
47:28to be like a big blue chip you know uh scale tipping player for them but he was acquired last year like
47:34that's not like a move that gets talked about this year so i think parker i think parker's going to step in
47:40i think the defense is going to still be rough in september but i would not be surprised if it's better and
47:46better and better and then we get to december time we're trying to decide between like six assistant coaches here and the
47:53cowboys are finishing the break in the nfc east and the defense is really starting to pull its weight the way parker
47:59talks about you know philosophy is he's clearly a branch of the big fanjio tree but i do think he is going
48:05to be a little bit more aggressive than some of those guys a little bit more blitz willing than some of those
48:11guys a little more press of the line and some of those guys and that'll create opportunities for takeaways as well and
48:17so parker's is my my pick outright for this award not mike mcdaniel is not your pick outright well no he's i
48:24picked that i wrote down on the things i knew we weren't allowed to do mike mcdaniel i was positive that you
48:30were going to let us do make it clear we both think it's mike mcdaniel okay just i just want to get
48:36that out there before we um it's a weird award because it's not like you look back at some of the guys
48:42who have won and it feels like kind of different amount credit is being given for different things like sometimes it's the
48:48unit that was the best sometimes it's a turnaround josh mcdaniel's won last year which i agree with um before that it
48:55was ben johnson duh right before that it was jim schwartz with the cleveland browns interesting uh before that domico ryans with
49:01the niners defensive coaches man uh dan quinn with the cowboys in 2021 people forget that year that before it all fell
49:07apart uh dable greg roman hilariously 2019 ravens fangio with the bears so yada yada uh so anyways it is not there's
49:13not like an obvious rubric that people use um so it is a mixture of in my mind like some newcomers but
49:19then also you can give it to a guy who's just been good a long time like a vic fangio or advanced
49:26joseph and it wouldn't be crazy just kind of depends how things shake out brian flores should you know probably win every
49:32year uh so i i threw out a couple of other names that i wanted to christian parker is on my short
49:38list of names who i think people will be looking at um anthony campanile in the jack with jacksonville so i like
49:44him amongst the defensive coordinators because one i thought he was very good last year but i also think it's a defense
49:51that um people look at and don't see like superstars right yeah looking at it and they'll think the coach in any
49:57he does a lot of interesting things particularly with you know with pressures and whatnot but i think it's not like chris
50:03shula in los angeles we're like are they really going to give chris shula credit for miles garrett and aaron donald probably
50:09not right you look at jacksonville i could see campanile getting credit a lot of head coach looks getting a lot of
50:15buzz people know that i'm pretty high on that defense um offensive guys gonna throw out some names can you just do
50:22a little drew petzing in detroit that's a good pick because of how bad people feel like the offense was last year
50:28even though it was like seven yes yes great pick we're in the nfc north this week and i was looking at
50:34all these giants offensive uh numbers from last year and if you yes you look at it you're like wait why did
50:40this feel so bad and then you look in their top 10 or better in everything pretty much except for uh you
50:46know the offensive line which i do think should be better so i think petzing could be the beneficiary of that like
50:53gap between perception and reality i also think he could do a really good job right so um to me he's being
50:59given set of tools to build something pretty impressive uh so yeah i liked him um um i couple first time offensive
51:05play callers i've got my eye on declan doyle you alluded to in baltimore we'll see total unknown again i think could
51:11benefit from just getting those pieces and then uh brian flurry in seattle i think uh some again total unknown it'd be
51:17tough to win mad shot in the dark i know narratively but i know because that that's the opposite of the lions
51:24where people think that it was like yep yep yep like jason's gonna only have like 1400 yards and nine touchdowns people
51:30think that the offense is worse but i kind of think well anyways put a pin in seattle because i'm gonna get
51:36back to that um so yeah i i think mike mcdaniel should be the favorite and we don't have to get into
51:42the million reasons why all over again but those are some other names that intrigued me yeah uh one defensive guy that
51:48you didn't bring up that i think is great for it is jim leonard the new dc of the bills because that
51:55defensive roster is tough and it's very much not like it's very much sean mcdermott's defense and he's got to figure out
52:01those pieces but again it's narrative let's say the bills have an incredible season and like you know okay we're not going
52:07to give it to joe brady because the offense is just as good as usually as josh allen's won the mvp we're
52:13not going to give it to him but hey this defense is actually kind of you know flucker than we thought then
52:19leonard gets put in the conversation and like he's like you know kind of got a big buzzy young head coaching name
52:26so he's another guy i thought of that kerr in new england's another yeah right now could he have even won it
52:32last year because he didn't have the title of coordinator i don't know how the award works yeah yeah uh okay we
52:38don't have to spend a lot of time on executive the year because frankly who cares but uh it's another one where
52:44this is a little bit all over the place in terms of what is rewarded john schneider won last year this is
52:50you know these are all votes before the super bowl obviously um the my pick uh for this year will you go
52:57first actually i've been going first yeah so the this award is the my team did really well in the regular season
53:03award and oftentimes like it is the uh my team did well in the regular season award and also i had two
53:09first round picks in this in this year award um so the first name that i wrote down is nick casario i
53:15think that if you get a good texans season then a big part of that conversation will be about uh young receivers
53:21you know you assume like a jim higgins a jaylen noel a tank dell somebody is stepping up but you also expect
53:28running game to be way better right they traded for david montgomery they totally retooled the offensive line a lot of that
53:34credit is going to go casario's direction this defense even if it's not something he did this year like it's a ton
53:40of drafted players kamari lassiter kaylon bullock will uh will anderson derek stingley they just added re-blank and chip so casario feels
53:46to me like a a little bit of like a lifetime achievement slash you know texans go 14 and three we don't
53:53want to give it to domico because we're too busy giving it to like a shiny new head coach we're not going
53:59to give mvp to cj stroud let's get casario executive of the year the other guy that i wrote down for my
54:05dark horse because the fans of this team will hate this as much as like i think of the average fan but
54:11it still is very possible to me is brett beach the general manager of the chiefs right i got her i think
54:17it's been very heavily villainized and not wrongfully for the recent performance of the chiefs but man three defensive picks in the
54:24top 50 what if mansoor delane peter woods armation thomas all play time all contribute and then also the chiefs offense is
54:30just back kenneth walker runs the ball really well the chiefs are 12 and 5 what are we gonna do give mahomes
54:36an mvp for another 4 000 year season no man brett beach is the executive of the year so just cheese fans
54:42batting down the hatches and prepare for that potential outcome this year uh i have as my outright pick george patton the
54:48broncos gm because if the wattle trade hits the way i think it will uh then and i if this team is
54:55as successful in the regular season as i think they will be yeah uh i think you know he will look kindly
55:01upon for the construction of really the reconstruction of this roster uh and i think you know some of those other teams
55:07like any about schneider part of the appeal was like well he didn't he doesn't have like a lamar or josh allen
55:13or whatever but he got a quarterback on a middle class contract which never happens and so i think there's some there
55:19might be like some hesitation to give it to a guy with an elite quarterback that's a good point because like brad
55:26holmes last couple of years howie bill belichick won at the year for the mac jones year like in a little bit
55:32is a not elite quarterback yeah so it's a rookie quarterback i mean and if he has a great season they'll be
55:38like well look at the guy who drafted him look how he recovered from the rust trade granted of his own making
55:44but uh yeah i mean it is it will go down as like one of the all-time like roster fixes turnarounds you
55:50know what i mean like um in a pretty rapid order and i think this team is extremely good like the roster
55:57is so good so obviously he deserves a lot of credit for that a couple other names i threw out i had
56:03nick casario on my list uh joe hortiz in la yeah i thought about that one chargers offense is what we think
56:09it will be i think he's going to get some credit and then i don't know maybe less need for an f
56:15them picks if the rams are as dominant as i thought about sneed what if uh like you know if stafford misses
56:21time in like december and ty simpson goes two and one and then oh let's give us a less need man he
56:28saw the vision did it he did it all right before the season even kicks off everyone's making predictions who wins the
56:34division who makes the playoffs who's lifting the trophy at season's end on call she america's number one prediction market platform you
56:40can trade those predictions in a live market will pittsburgh qualify for the playoffs this season right now they're trading at 40
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57:24check engine abs or maintenance light on take the guesswork out of your warning lights with o'reilly veriscan the service is free
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58:07la quinta tomorrow you shine terms and conditions apply uh on to more interesting ones let's do so let's do offensive player
58:13last let's do defensive rookie of the year first okay i shall go first um so it's a little hard because usually
58:19it's you want to the guy who gets a lot of sacks but well it's hard right because defensive rookie of the
58:26year is not like defensive player of the year where you necessarily have a double digit sacks getter um so i was
58:32i thought about of this the pass rushers i was most intrigued by bane jr same the vay thing has me a
58:38little spooked um so i'm going to go with the defensive player who i think is going to be one of the
58:44biggest stories in football this year and that's caleb downs wow safety has never won defensive rookie of the year i know
58:50i was looking at all the past winners i know but linebacker won last year i i just think now i have
58:57some hesitation because i don't think he's like a and this could be famous like words maybe he'll get a ton of
59:03interceptions but like the appeal of caleb downs is not that he's going to get you a million interceptions the appeal of
59:09caleb downs is that he will contribute in ways that maybe aren't even obvious right to the naked eye and that is
59:15a little bit scary because you are betting that people are going to actually watch the film and uh and take the
59:21time to understand everything he does to unlock this christian parker defense we talked about but i genuinely believe he could get
59:28a bump from the like when you think about it's kind of a lot of the same stuff you said with christian
59:34parker if this defense takes a big leap forward right right talking about we're gonna be talking about Caleb Downs like we
59:40just are so and there was already like the storyline that this was the best defensive player in the draft oh my
59:46god how did he fall to the cowboys so i just think everything is kind of set up for him let me
59:52tell you why this is a really good player let me tell you why this is gonna happen is because when i
59:59my like post draft piece that i wrote was setting the table for offensive rookie of the defense rookie of the year
60:05who's the favorite and whatever and on my defensive rookie of the year list i wrote a paragraph where i said listen
60:11i'm not going to talk about caleb downs because the safety has never won this award and like i think he's a
60:17tremendous player but i don't think he'll ever get the award because historically we don't give it to safeties so for the
60:23sake of cowboys fans getting to screenshot that i'm now living with a lot of confidence that caleb downs isn't going to
60:30win defensive rookie of the year listen 22 of the 26 winners this century have been first round picks 20 of those
60:3622 have been first half of the first round picks it tends to go to name recognition guys guys who were drafted
60:42early enough that the general public knows them so which downs qualifies right because he's the top 16 pick and so on
60:48that logic alone he's within like a very small list of guys who could do it and yeah he's got such a
60:54big sexy name appeal as dallas cowboy like i i'm now honestly very certain that this will happen i have bane down
61:01as my favorite i didn't think about the vea i didn't think about the vea of it all i just think that
61:07he's right you saw this yeah good if there's no vea do you would you take it take it back no i
61:13see i think that when i try to answer the question of for whom will opportunities in the pass rush game be
61:19manufactured in tampa bay my head just goes to to bane like this they were thrilled to get him at that spot
61:26they desperately needed a primary sack getter todd bulls is obviously a heavy blitz guy but when you're a heavy blitz guy
61:32you can also be a show pressure to manufacture one-on-ones to get my my premier sack player to you know produce that
61:38was like the shack barrett theory when he was there and i think the bane can be that caliber of a pass
61:44rusher very different place i was obviously but that caliber of a pass rusher such that he dominates those opportunities right those
61:50manufactured schemed up chances just like the rest of their roster you just don't see the guy who's going to be taking
61:57those snaps from him um and the reports out of camp right now that he looks very strong in terms of his
62:03uh how well he's performing in his nfl readiness he's got nfl size clearly he plays all three downs like i just
62:09i trust him more than i trust david bailey with the jets and i you know i think the way to go
62:15yeah bailey i'm here and looks good but yeah no i well he plays for a better defense too so i think
62:21that's going to help um arville reese is a fun one but i do think he's the kind of guy who's more
62:28likely to look better year two year three than year one i do think there's a good chance for sunny i think
62:34because i think that sunny can uh sunny styles who was taken by the commanders yeah linebacker just a decent amount of
62:40linebackers have won by the way i know i was like linebacker won last year but i'm looking at the list and
62:46so when it's like i said 22 to 26 or first round picks those remaining four were all off-ball linebackers who were
62:52taken in round two and she accumulated a ton of tackles or we're talking about domiko ryan's we're talking about shack leonard
62:59carson sweschinger last year those sorts of guys so cj allen with the colts is my dark horse because he fits the
63:05mold of 120 tackles because he's a day one starter on a colts defense where he's playing behind two good defensive tackles
63:11to him grover stewart and deforest buckner so he's going to have opportunities um so to me like linebacker can you get
63:17there sunny i think is cool because i think sunny's going to have the opportunity to make more high value plays on
63:23the ball pass breakups interceptions sacks that he didn't get in ohio state because he was playing next to reese and reese
63:30got like the reps that are on the line of scrimmage so he's going to get more of those in the league
63:36than he did in college which is weird so sunny's another guy that i like for this uh i have his dark
63:42horse the keem mesidor in la um yeah right yeah opportunity they're replacing oa opposite they brought back khalil mac to lead
63:48to upload twos he didn't get paid yeah he's gonna get paid um you know we i actually who did i talk
63:54to i think i discussed this with khalil actually yeah we were at chargers camp and i asked mac about you know
64:01last year when they would do those three uh when they would put all three of them on the field and lined
64:07up line up tooley inside i was asking if we would still see so those looks but with mesidor opposite them and
64:13what how he thought that would go and he was super enthusiastic about what he's seen from him and his opportunity i
64:19think to take advantage of that or potential rather so um you know should be another a good defense yet again should
64:25be well coached curious to see what it actually whether there's gonna be any differences with chris o'leary the defensive coordinator they're
64:32very tight-lipped about it but um best door also to me is like a guy who could really hit the ground running
64:38similar to bane right like they're older player yeah polished um so you know i i like that he's way down the
64:44odds but yeah downs felt safe all right offensive rookie of the year you can go first because i just went first
64:50on defensive rookie of the year so i'm still picking Fernando Mendoza here okay i i feel like this is like now
64:57at the point it's a little bit becoming me like obnoxiously just putting my like crossing my arms and being like i
65:03think he's gonna play independent of like anything that gets said but john daigle tweeted this out uh like last month and
65:09it was rookie year starts by the first quarterback taken in every draft since 2015 james had 16 golf at seven trubisky
65:15at 12 baker at 13 kyler had 16 joe burrow had 10 before he got placed on ir trevor lawrence had 17
65:21bryson had 16 caleb at 17 cam at 17.
65:24it's really hard to have the first overall pick a quarterback burning a hole in your pocket you really i think you
65:30can you can talk as much beautiful team no bang drake bay has to sit the entire season philosophy like we're gonna
65:36sit for 19 years we're gonna study on a chalkboard he's the first overall pick kirk's gonna have a multi-pick game like
65:42it's gonna happen he's kirk his arm is not that young he's gonna make mistakes and and it just the mo like
65:49you don't get one middling kirk game and so you start getting questions about mendoza so it's so easy to talk that
65:55game now it's just so hard to stay on that path when we get into the season and i think so long
66:01as mendoza plays 11 games like two-thirds of the games his primary competition is going to be jeremiah love behind a terrible
66:07offensive line terrible offensive environment carnell tate who might not be wide receiver one in his own team and jordan tyson who
66:14needs to stay on the field so i still like um allow me to introduce another competitor who's my pick yeah because
66:20i just saw him in person oh yeah and i think for all the reasons you just said with the other guys
66:26this feels wide open to me because a lot of the offensive players strongly agree we're not thrust into good offenses jadrian
66:32price walks into an offense that yes it wasn't you know one of the top offenses football still pretty damn good particularly
66:38the second half of the season when they started running the ball better um and a lot of that had to do
66:45with opportunity and the way defenses played them but i genuinely think this run game could look better this year everything that
66:51i've heard from seattle about what brian flurry wants to do with the run game with the tight ends the way that
66:57they're using motion and different personnel groupings to try to improve on the ground in particular by the way is was emphasized
67:03to me i think there's gonna be a tremendous opportunity continuity on the same offensive line and obviously you need you know
67:09another healthy season from abe lucas knock on wood i think it's really important but grace abel year two sundell you know
67:16more starting experience for some of these young offensive linemen um i think this is a team that's going to use a
67:22lot of two tight ends it's interesting because they were bad running the football over the course of the season but in
67:2812 personnel they were uh second in eup ever play when they ran the ball and i boner and eric sauber could
67:34kick some tail last yes sir and i think they're gonna double down on that um price to me too like just
67:40i feel like i know everyone's always worried in seattle is gonna be committee sharp and he's coming back holani pass protection
67:47all of that i really think he's going to get a lot of run in this i was i was gonna hit
67:53you with a but what about the competition with i know for first also i think as a pass catcher he's going
67:59to make some really some explosive plays so i just felt like when i looked at all the offensive players you could
68:05talk me into any of them i think there's risks and questions with all of them mendoza's obviously the playing time otherwise
68:11the other guys you know it's the overall offenses i look at him and i'm like i think you're in the best
68:18situation and you're a great scheme fit for what they want to do it's very easy for me to imagine him becoming
68:24like a fantasy darling to and out producing like the bad the bad what the backs did last year in a way
68:30that captures people's attention i just i like if charbonnet comes back by week four which it sounds like they like feel
68:36enthusiastic about him they have already like price was a splitting time committee player in college they already showed last year they
68:42want to be a splitting time committee team with charbonnet with kenneth walker who like was apparently good enough to become a
68:49top five paid back for a minute there for a second and charbonnet in particular is like a passing downs back and
68:55a goal line back and so it's like i i i am but i'm simultaneously confident that like you know price is
69:01a better player than his college stats indicated that he can be a three down back in the nfl level that he's
69:07going to be good for seattle but and also i'm not sold that he's just going to get enough carries enough touches
69:13that's the number one pause that i have with price um the final thing is somebody who had boots on the ground
69:20and eyes on the field that boy nice my my dark horse for offensive rookie of the year is exclusively at that
69:26point nice uh yeah i mean he just looks nice i was in i was in cleveland oh boy i have him
69:32denzel boston okay listen i i i was i'm as a good church going boy as a son of a priest i
69:38do not take the lord's name in vain denzel boss had a playing camp where i said i was like jesus christ
69:45like i i could not believe how good he looked out there i can't do it with the quarterbacks all right but
69:51um it's going to help him now because he's going to make unbelievable catches yeah siciliano i i asked him a few
69:57weeks ago i think like in jude or something i was like so how are my guys casey and boston i i
70:03you know i love both of them they're both my my guys uh and he wrote back boston period and that's all
70:09he's from boston i was like i mean it wasn't even it wasn't disney kc who i think is also looked pretty
70:16cool he looks great but he was just like you he's just like just you know this because you've like done enough
70:22training camps and like everything like that but like i think the number one thing that i look for when i go
70:28to training camp is like does rookie look like belong do you look big enough do you look fast enough do you
70:34look strong enough are you thinking on your feet like you just look like you're playing at nfl speed nfl size and
70:40boston just like it looks like a dog dude he's just explosive he's physical he is he's strong he's got size he's
70:47got smoothness like he just so clearly is an nfl caliber x receiver and i love the way he looks and if
70:53it is sanders and the offense is inefficient but there's still some plays that get your attention outside of structure balls downfield
70:59red zone boston boston you know dental boston that's a boston um huskies legend so yeah i i i like that as
71:05a dark horse um but yeah price is my guy so in summary i'll read mine back to you mvp joe burrow
71:11dark horse trevor lawrence offensive player of the year puka dark horse marion hampton defense player of the year will anderson jr
71:18dark horse jalen carter coach of the year jesse minter dark horse brian shot and i was so many of the same
71:24dark horses assistant of the year mike mcdaniel dark horse drew petzing executive of the year george patten i didn't do a
71:30darker two characters executive here defense of the rookie here galeb downs dark horse mesador offensive rookie of the year jadarian price
71:36dark horse Denzel Boston and who are yours did you have a comeback player of the year oh i didn't do comeback
71:42player of the year i mean okay i i was just i was checking because i thought for i was like i
71:49thought you texted to do comeback but you didn't you texted to make sure we did exactly an assistant coach yeah yeah
71:55i mean i didn't even look at it's nick bosa fred warner am i missing anyone about patrick mahomes is like the
72:01by a mile yeah yeah yeah how many games do you have to miss right exactly you didn't actually miss them any
72:07games i mean if jones looks halfway do you say which is by all accounts that can jump up there kyler is
72:13is very high up in the awards malik neighbors aaron donald is currently fourth in the awards uh it is i don't
72:20do come back i do not respect yeah come back here low key this year kind of bangs in terms of the
72:26total list it's a lot of uh for me mvp was joe burrow with trevor lawrence behind office player of the year
72:32was brock bowers with the marian hampton behind defensive player of the year was miles garrett with kyle hamilton behind coach of
72:38the year robert sala with brian schottenheimer uh executive of the year was nick casario i had brett veach assistant coach of
72:44the year i had mike mcdaniel if not christian parker behind him uh defensive rookie of the year i had reuben bain
72:51with cj allen and offensive rookie of the year i had fernando mendoza with denzel austin i had some different picks it
72:57wasn't all the same i can't believe you had burrow man i was really like i was you were picking mvp and
73:03you were trying to call my shot i was just i was just i was doing my good analysis right you were
73:09trying to figure out what i was doing so convinced you were going to do justin harvard for mvp instead of joe
73:15you gotta you gotta give the bangles fans the mvp joe burrow pick preseason so that way if you dare criticize the
73:22golden child for like one play in week six you can point back i picked him for mvp okay i think he's
73:28good it was begrudging defensive for selections i think he's gonna have a great season bangles fans all right and also i'm
73:34a bangles offensive line respecter there's very few of us we're out here we check your child hi ben solak training camp
73:40notebook coming out on tuesday because we got a lot of offensive line uh propaganda there for the bangles all right good
73:47i appreciate that uh yeah we're gonna be able to check out all the stuff you've been doing yes uh my training
73:53camp notebook comes out on tuesday for idsbn.com it was colts bangles browns stealers bills i think there's in this one the
73:59second half of my tour there um yeah you can find all that stuff there on dot com i'm on all the
74:05socials as per usual i'm happy to be back on the show if it smells like football baby we're getting in there
74:11maybe we'll uh talk about some preseason action in the coming weeks um yeah i was texting you the whole time you're
74:18a colts fan hey i was guys did the afc south and i referenced this in the podcast with brett i was
74:24like please just tell me boot like on the ground how does daniel jones look uh and by all accounts looks okay
74:30so we'll see we'll see we shall say this is the second time i have gone to colts camp with josh downs
74:36hype and left colts camp with an injured josh down so i really gotta stop going to indianapolis for that young man's
74:42sake i don't love that um later this week i will be doing the nfc north speaking of quarterback competitions with carmen
74:49vitale i've i'm living and dying by the uh the breathless training camp competition but kevin seifer has really crushed it with
74:55the post he did about the audible murmur at some of jj mccarthy's misses really chef's guess um so i'll be i'll
75:01probably have to tap in with everybody there to try to get a sense of what the hell's going on because we
75:07haven't actually seen them compete in preseason yet so anyways nfc north and then afc north well then we have real football
75:13to talk about oh my god and then have you have you watched the all 22 of the hall of fame game
75:20yet do you have carson beck takes the way dio does some of the takes coming out of the hall of fame
75:26game were just yeah man uh doing chandler zavala breakdowns on tech talk i was like we're home baby let's do it
75:32my only hall of fame game take was uh jalen brooks might be a guy might be a guy we're there on
75:38jalen brooks good i uh the cardinals line looked good but like against all right what are we doing here it's good
75:44to be back it's good to be back all right thank you so much ben uh quick programming notes my television podcast
75:51viewer discretion is also back we are recapping the show furious right now which is really good but we will start recapping
75:57the show lanterns which i'm very excited about watching uh and i posted this on my various socials but i'm doing a
76:03little fundraiser uh for a kid out here in los angeles who got into yale and helping him and his family uh
76:09raise a little bit money to close the financial gap for them so i am auctioning off or selling whatever 15 paintings
76:15you know i do these custom paintings yes um so links are on my various socials um if you have been dying
76:22for one of those paintings or just a video message i get a lot of good fantasy commissioner ones to start the
76:28season my favorites i think i've had two people do video announcements uh from me to tell their their boys that they're
76:34having a child oh yeah i've done too so if you're having a child you like to break the news to your
76:40male group chat i got you do you do anything you have little popper with like pink and blue confetti inside of
76:46it what's the move i've not done a gender reveal with oh my god please don't ask me to do well if
76:53you want to actually i'll do it for the sake of the young man going to yale i will do a gender
76:59reveal so check that out it's on my socials it's on my instagram bio blue sky all that um and otherwise thank
77:05you as always to the folks at omaha productions here's this is a becky owen sailor jack foster tucker tasha and i'll
77:11see you guys later this week timberland pro knows that nascar starts long before the green flag waves because behind every race
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