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0:26Welcome back to the Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, only NFL podcast.
0:30One of the hosts wants to take a bite out of CJ Ham.
0:34That's Lenny. I'm Mina Kimes. Carmen Batali. You didn't change your name, right?
0:38You just got married. Legally, it's changed. But no, professionally, no, we're sticking with Carmen Batali.
0:43Carmen Batali is here again to help me preview the NFC North.
0:47So excited, not just because you're here, but you're here.
0:50This is a division that is near and dear to your heart.
0:54You are very familiar with all these teams, but because we've got news just in the brink of time.
1:00Literally, I was pushing this division and the AFC North back, back, back.
1:04Yeah. Because of the quarterback competitions. Yes. And I was convinced I have the Viking stuff.
1:09I had ready to go. I was ready to talk about both quarterbacks.
1:13And then literally an hour before we started taping, it was reported announced.
1:17Kyler Murray will be the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings.
1:20The football gods must love you. Oh, what a blessing.
1:24So I figured we would start with the Vikings since it's easy and maybe we can talk a little bit about how
1:31we got here, what it means, the offense. It's been, I've been following the Vikings beat reporters accounts of practice scrimmages so closely.
1:38Same. Same. Same. And to put, I guess my understand read on it after talking to some of them is that kind
1:45of over the course of the last few weeks, it looked like Kyler clearly had the lead.
1:50And then there was a scrimmage, I believe. Yeah, this past weekend.
1:54God, it wasn't so great. So then there was a question, maybe this will drag out a little bit and maybe it'll go into the preseason.
2:02Not that the reporters thought that I just think from the outside.
2:06But no, the Vikings decided to call it early.
2:09So let's just start there before we get into what this means for the offense, for the team.
2:14Obviously when they traded for Kyler or not traded for him, just signed him for nothing.
2:19I was a big fan of the move because it was so low cost, low risk.
2:24And because, you know, he has been at minimum an average quarterback, which is obviously a vast improvement.
2:30What do you make of this? And also like as a reporter, what do you make of them announcing it now?
2:37Because I was a little surprised. I know. I, I thought that like the decision should come sooner rather than later.
2:43And actually I was on the Irish NFL show last week talking about how I think they would benefit from just making
2:50this decision early and, and making sure that Kyler knows he's the guy going forward.
2:55And the team knows that he's the guy going forward because even coming out of camp, like all the players were insisting
3:02that this was still a competition and that they didn't know which way it was going and this, that, the other.
3:08And you want as much continuity and as many reps as possible with the guy that you're going to carry into the season as the starter.
3:16So I think that there's really nothing to be gained from, I guess, the outside noise of like, is this happening?
3:23I think maybe there was stuff to be gained from JJ McCarthy's camp and that like, if he like really took this
3:30down to the wire, that maybe that there was something salvageable there.
3:34But at the end of the day, him losing this quarterback battle to Kyler Murray doesn't really bode well for kind of his trade ability.
3:42And I don't know that that's going to happen anytime soon.
3:45And I don't think that that's the feeling out of Minnesota either.
3:49So doing it now, I think makes a lot of sense.
3:52And I'm glad that they did because now we can get rid of that whole narrative and just focus on who this
3:59team is moving forward with Kyler Murray. And you kind of alluded to it.
4:04If he's even average, like if we get the 2024 Kyler Murray that I think was 14th in EPA per play, this team can be fine.
4:12Like this team could not only be fine, this team could potentially win the division.
4:17Like I think I'm, I think I've gotten there as far as after like rewatching them and like that defense was so
4:23vastly underrated last year because of all of the offense.
4:27Third in DVOA. Third in DVOA last year. Yeah, no, I mean, there's 2024 is a great earmark for if Kyler is anything like that.
4:34Yeah. Um, he was 10th in QBR 10th in completion percentage over expected seventh and success rate.
4:40He he's had such an odd career in Arizona because you know, he was 20, 20, 2021.
4:45He looks so great. And then there were some pretty brutal injuries that affected him.
4:502024 looked like a bounce back season with drew bet.
4:53Petsing, you know, I mentioned some of the numbers and then 2025 was a step back both from a performance and an injury perspective.
5:01But, um, you know, again, like average is I think it completely realistic goal.
5:05I think it's gonna be interesting to see what the offense actually looks like.
5:09And I think that's where giving him more reps or, or naming him the starter early is the right move because from
5:16what I've gathered too, from reading, like when he's not been great in camp, it is felt a little bit like still
5:23they're feeling things out and he's still not entirely comfortable in the offense.
5:27So I think it's probably something that Kevin O'Connell is going to want to devote as much time as possible to it.
5:34And the offense is going to be fascinating, right?
5:37Like, so when the signing happened, Carmen, there was a lot of talk about the quote unquote poor fit or the awkward fit.
5:44Maybe it's a better way to put it. Like Kevin O'Connell wants his quarterbacks under center, tacking the middle of the field, um, playing on time.
5:52And there's this right. Kyler has a reputation. So some of it is reputational.
5:57Some of it is accurate. Doesn't really throw a lot over the middle of the field, primarily in the gun.
6:03Right. And he has thrived in offenses where they're spreading things out.
6:07Do you feel that that reputation or rather perception is fair?
6:10Do you think that actually he is a good fit for this offense or conversely, do you think the offense has to evolve to accommodate him?
6:18I mean, I think that with any quarterback, you're going to have to have some evolution.
6:24And I believe Kevin O'Connell understands that. And that's, you could see it even last year when he was trying to make
6:30JJ McCarthy work just in the way that he pared down the offense.
6:35In fact, as the season got later, which is kind of when JJ McCarthy, you saw some, maybe, I don't know, serviceable
6:41quarterback play out of JJ McCarthy at that point.
6:44But I do think that there is, there is a fit within this offense with Kyler's athleticism and being able to kind of tilt defenses in that way.
6:53And the, the run game is just, it's like with Jordan Mason and with Aaron Jones, what he has left.
6:59I think that that can be pretty dynamic in the backfield.
7:03And I think that's can be harnessed. And then on top of that, I don't think we're talking enough about the receiver
7:10core that Kyler Murray is now going to have at his disposal.
7:14It not, doesn't just include Justin Jefferson, who is arguably the best receiver in the league, but it's also Jawan Jennings is
7:20now part of this and Jordan Addison. So for my money, those, those top three receivers, you're going to have to dare
7:27Kyler Murray to kind of push the ball down the field.
7:31Right. And, and I, it's so far in training camp from everything I've seen, he was the one pushing the ball down the field.
7:38Whereas Kyler Murray was kind of taking more of those check or JJ McCarthy was taking more of those check downs.
7:45Or Kyler was pushing the ball down the field more Kyler.
7:48Yeah. Did I say JJ? No, you know, it's, it's just, you know, there, first of all, there's like three JJ's on the scene.
7:56There's so many JJ's and JJ McCarthy and Jawan Jennings.
7:59So Kyler, you saw in training camp was, it felt like was taking more risk.
8:04Was taking more risk with the ball was pushing the ball down the field.
8:08And whereas JJ McCarthy had the higher completion percentage, but he was kind of throwing all the underneath stuff and kind of
8:15maybe, I don't know if he was trying to make it look like he was doing well and, and maybe it wasn't, but it was Kyler Murray.
8:24That was kind of pushing the ball down the field.
8:27And I think you're going to need him to do that.
8:30And I think he's willing to do that. I think that is such a fascinating question this season because Kyler Murray, like
8:37the mystery of where Kyler Murray's deep ball went is a great like chicken or egg question.
8:42Yes, sir. Because so Kyler Murray early in his career, amazing deep, but you think about these plays outside of some outside
8:49of structure and launching bombs downfield to Deandre Hopkins and company.
8:53And then it kind of went away, right? And both the attempts and then also his success throwing downfield.
8:59So on one hand, you can say, well, maybe some of it was his injuries, not being entirely comfortable, and maybe this is who he is.
9:07But then on the other hand, and this is where the chicken and egg comes in, you can say, well, the Arizona offensive line disintegrated.
9:15They didn't have great wide receivers. It started flowing through Trey McBride at tight end became the focal point of the offense.
9:22Marvin Harrison Jr. That never really clicked for whatever reason.
9:25So now you kind of are putting him in a control situation where you have an amazing group of wide receivers who
9:32can win downfield, Addison Jefferson in particular. And then, you know, what should be at least a competent offensive line.
9:38I know the interior has questions and but if Darisaw is healthy, you know, there's still that's and what Kyler had.
9:45So it's kind of like we're going to find out, right?
9:48Like, you know what I mean? Like, okay, was the deep ball disappearing because of situation?
9:53And so it also was Drew Petsing's offense or was it Kyler?
9:57Well, we'll see, I guess. But I think you're right to point out that sort of to me where the ceiling on
10:04this lies of an offense is like, I think the floor has been lifted a great deal.
10:09But if it's going to hit that ceiling with Kyler, he has to be able to throw the ball downfield the way he did early in his career.
10:18He does. And you hope that this offensive line is going to give him the chance to do that because that was
10:25another part of the issue with this Minnesota offense last year was 17 different offensive line combinations.
10:30Yeah. And they because of the Darisaw injury and then later the Brian O'Neal injury, they did just extend Brian O'Neal.
10:37So I have to think that that reading between the lines, that's a vote of confidence in his health.
10:43And then if Darisaw can stay, stay healthy, then you really do give Kyler Murray a shot here to be able to,
10:50you know, hold that ball, let those plays develop and get the ball down the field to one of these great receivers.
10:57And then you have kind of the underneath option in TJ Hawkinson, who's another year removed from his injury.
11:03So you hope that he can kind of be that safety blanket underneath for Kyler.
11:07But I really, I think that this offense can be extremely dynamic and you can kind of harness Kyler Murray's skill set
11:14and his athleticism and maybe again, just kind of pushing him to push the ball down the field a little bit more.
11:21And it could be very dynamic. The athleticism brings me to something you also mentioned, which is the run game.
11:28And I think this might be the thing I'm actually weirdly most intrigued by in Minnesota because I don't think I've even
11:34I've talked about this, but one of the hirings that flew under the radar a little bit was adding Frank Smith from Miami.
11:42And I've talked about how, you know, his title is assistant head coach.
11:46But he, as I understand from asking around, is basically in charge of the run game.
11:51So the Minnesota run game has legitimately improved in during Kevin O'Connell's tenure.
11:55So it's still not like one of the best in football, but it has crept to kind of just outside that top 10.
12:02I think the thought here is everybody wants a piece of this Miami run game.
12:07Literally, like every coach, everyone's talking about it. So let's bring in, you know, Frank Smith from Miami.
12:12We work closely with Mike McDaniel. And also, I think this it could hypothetically solve solve, but help blend those.
12:19Kyler with the you know, Kyler who's more of a gun, maybe pistol quarterback get him involved in the run game because
12:26the Miami run game for those who didn't watch it closely.
12:29all the crazy motions and formations and personnel groupings and whatnot were part of what made it so effective.
12:35But that was a run game out of the gun and pistol, right?
12:39So now you bring that over, and now you have a quarterback who's actually a threat to run way more than Tua Tagovailoa was in Miami.
12:47I'm kind of intrigued by the potential. They also drafted Max Bredesen, who's going to play fullback for them out of Michigan.
12:54Sorry, C.J. Hamm. Josh Oliver is a very good blocking tight end.
12:58There's a lot of components here, I think, to what could potentially be a really interesting rushing attack.
13:04I think it flies under the radar, too, just how often Kevin O'Connell does like to utilize multiple back sets.
13:10They were top 10 in 21 usage last year, and so that kind of lends itself to maybe a running back by committee sort of situation.
13:18But also, I think more than that, it incorporates the fullback, which is music to my ears.
13:24I love when we get fullbacks involved because, again, you're talking about that Miami offense.
13:28You're talking about San Francisco and what they do out of their multiple back sets.
13:33And I think that that's something that can, again, harness Kyler Murray's skill set and just make this offense the most dynamic.
13:40And that marrying both of these, like this downfield passing attack with potentially this run game where you don't know where the
13:47ball's going or if Kyler Murray is keeping it himself or any of that kind of stuff when you have multiple backs on the field.
13:55I mean, that to me can help Kyler Murray, too, for that matter and really make this offense just pretty potent.
14:01Like I said, I just keep finding reasons to believe in the Minnesota Vikings.
14:06I mean, the potential, I think, which we've outlined here is exciting.
14:09But we should also hit the downside here, right?
14:12So, one, I think while I do think maybe the scheme fit thing can be a little overplayed because, you know, in
14:192024, Kyler did play under center a lot with Drew Petsing.
14:23You know, he is not a quarterback who's going to throw a lot over the middle of the field.
14:29That's just not. I mean, a lot of that has to do with his size, right?
14:34So, there could be a world in which it just doesn't click with him and Kevin O'Connell.
14:39There could be a world in which he gets hurt again.
14:42Kyler Murray's had a lot of injuries, which might be another reason why they hang on to J.J.
14:48McCarthy, right? And then I think the offensive line, you could see the interior struggling.
14:53And, you know, Kyler maybe struggling with pressure and particularly interior pressure.
14:57So, there's definitely a lot of potential downside scenarios here, right?
15:00Like, we're going back to 2024. You know, last year, Kyler was not.
15:04It's funny because there's this perception that, like, Jacoby came in and the offense was so much better, which is not really true over the course of it.
15:13Just he started out hot. Ultimately, they were both pretty bad.
15:16But, you know, there's a world in which instead of getting average quarterback play from Kyler Murray, average is actually the past.
15:23And the new normal is in the, you know, 20 to 25 range.
15:27Totally possible. Yeah, I think so too. And that's the biggest thing I look at for this offense and if it's going to work is that offensive line.
15:36And then the interior is the biggest question mark, right?
15:39And then you have the center quarterback exchange where it's not like Kyler Murray is Jared Goff where he can kind of withstand, like, any sort of center.
15:48You want the center to take as much off Kyler Murray's plate as possible is what I'm getting at.
15:54And that I don't know is going to be the case in Minnesota.
15:58So I'm, yeah, with Brendel. So it's one of those things where I, if everything goes right, and this is kind of
16:05an overarching theme, I feel like for the division overall, like as I was going through all of this, where it's like,
16:12if everything goes right and exactly according to plan, great.
16:15This could work. But if there's any sort of adversity or if there's an over, if there's an influx of injury or
16:22whatever, like none of these teams have these contingency plans that I'm overly thrilled with.
16:27Other than, I guess, the Minnesota Vikings and just being able to rely on this defense to will you to nine games,
16:34which is what they did last year. Let's talk about the defense.
16:37So they made my top 10 defenses pod. I think I had them six.
16:42It's funny though, when I was doing that, when I took a step back and looked at some of the changes in
16:49the depth chart, I felt like a little bit more nervous about the personnel and some of the changes.
16:55But then I keep going back to it's Brian.
16:58I think Brian Flores has earned the like benefit of the doubt on defense at this point.
17:03Do you think that's enough? Or do you, is there anything about this defensive depth chart that concerns you?
17:09I mean, yeah, of course there's things about this defensive depth chart that concern me.
17:14But when you get rid of Javon Hargrave and you no longer have John Allen and like so much of what made
17:21you so stout up front is no longer there.
17:23That's scary to me. And then to pass that off to a rookie who has been dealing with foot issues a lot
17:30of his career for the last few years in Caleb Banks.
17:34I mean, Caleb Banks is an absolute monster and watching his Florida tape when he was healthy was amazing.
17:40And he was like the most polarizing prospect I think I watched in this draft class because I was like, oh my God, when he's good, he's insane.
17:49And he is exactly what Brian Flores wants in the front of that unit.
17:53But can he stay healthy? And that's been the biggest question mark.
17:57Because if he's not, you don't have a whole lot else that can really get that push up front.
18:03Now, I mean, can you rely on maybe your secondary, your linebacker level or like Andrew Van Ginkle?
18:08They're priming Andrew Van Ginkle 2.0 and Jake Goldegg because he's gotten snaps at inside linebacker, outside backer, all of those things.
18:15So that makes me excited. And going back and watching this defense, like the best way I can describe them and Brian
18:22Flores in general is like they are just so blissfully unaware that they have any sort of limitations.
18:28Like the things that they do, the things that they ask their guys to do, the things that Brian Flores asks his guys to do.
18:36I don't know, like as a quarterback, if you're sitting back there and you're trying to read even post-snap, it's impossible.
18:42There's so much movement pre-snap. None of these guys are necessarily set.
18:46You have, again, they have no qualms with making Harrison Smith start on the line of scrimmage and then go cover a deep half.
18:54And it's like, if you know that these guys...
18:56I know. Like if you have no fear, if you are not aware of your limitations at all, like how do you deal with that?
19:04I think the reason is an interesting question, which is...
19:07So, you know, I've talked a lot with Mike and Steve as if you listen to this podcast, you know, like they
19:14are extreme outliers in pretty much everything. They play a ton of base defense.
19:19They rush five and six at the highest rates in the NFL.
19:23They blitz on early downs. They play split safety behind the blitz.
19:26They're constantly... Carmen alluded to this constantly. Second, third level defenders on the line of scrimmage, et cetera, et cetera.
19:33Dropping, sometimes going. It's pure chaos, right? Yeah. I think the interesting question that I'm still pondering is like who is essential to that chaos?
19:40If you take out Harrison Smith, for example, can Josh Metellus still be your jack of all trades, does a million things?
19:47If you don't have Jonathan Grenard anymore, are you as comfortable with, you know, the rest of your past?
19:53I... It's just... They seem to be able to survive everything, but I do like...
19:58I will say, and I think this is very important to the chaos in the formation, the...
20:03How they do it all. I do like that they kept their backers.
20:07They brought Eric Wilson back and Blake Cashman has been great for them.
20:12You talked about adding Golday, who's kind of more of the Van Ginkle hybrid role.
20:16But I do think that if they had lost the linebackers, I'd be a little bit more worried about their ability to pull it all off.
20:24Same. And I appreciate... I think that level... You need...
20:28You need guys in the middle that are directing this traffic.
20:31Like, you just do because it's just absolutely... It's absolute chaos, but like in the best way and it's completely intentional and on purpose.
20:39So I appreciated that too. And like guys like Ivan Pace Jr., like he came out the gate just like really understanding this defense.
20:46And I just... There's so much versatility within this defense that I think everybody is cross-trained at every different position that they
20:53possibly could play, which is I guess all of them.
20:56And the one thing about last year that was especially important to me or like it stuck out to me was we...
21:03It's no secret that they blitz at the highest rate and they do all those things that you mentioned before and that
21:10they've been doing that for the last few years.
21:13But this year, I feel like you really got the blitz to pressure like translation.
21:18You really got it to translate this year because so often for the first couple of years under Brian Flores, sure, they
21:25were blitzing at the highest rate in the league, but they were like fifth, seventh in pressure rate.
21:30And that's no longer the case. Like that wasn't the case last year.
21:34Like that pressure was translating or that blitz was translating.
21:37And so I really... Like they figured something out in that regard and keeping those guys in the middle of the field
21:44in particular to kind of direct all of this when it does look like such chaos I think was vital and it
21:51makes me feel a lot better about it even if I'm a little concerned about probably the front.
21:57I don't think Josh Mateles is necessarily at Harrison Smith level, but I do think that he's a really great safety that people are underrating.
22:05So I... And then it does. It comes back to Brian Flores just being an absolute madman and also like tinkering every year with what he does.
22:13Right. Maybe there'll be new twists. I mean, yeah.
22:16Like I don't think it's not going to be exactly the same if Harrison Smith isn't there.
22:21I think we might see a little bit more nickel, a little bit less time.
22:26The cornerback room, they added... You know, they've had a lot of underrated sign...
22:31Like Isaiah Rogers was really good for them. But...
22:33Pierre was a nice little under the radar signing.
22:36Byron Murphy's been awesome for them. So maybe it's like a tweak.
22:40You get a little bit more nickel. Maybe... You know what I mean?
22:44Like there'll be... I think... As far as... So I expect them to once again be a top 10 unit, as I said.
22:51But as far as can they overcome some of the losses naturally and veterans leaving...
22:56Young players are going to have to step up.
22:59Right? Dallas Turner, who I talked about on the NFC Next Factors.
23:03They're betting on him to become Jonathan Grenard 2.0.
23:05That's the only reason that you could afford to get rid of Jonathan Grenard.
23:10I think. As soon as they did that, my first thought was like, oh, Dallas Turner must be real...
23:16They must really have a lot of confidence that he's going to take that leap.
23:21And actually, I was last... It wasn't this past summer, but the last summer.
23:25I was with both Jonathan Grenard and Dallas Turner at a pass rush summit in Arizona.
23:30And the way that they were working together and how much...
23:33I talked to Dallas about how much it means to have Jonathan Grenard kind of alongside him and be able to work
23:40with him and learn from him and all of that kind of stuff.
23:44So he's learned a lot from Jonathan Grenard himself to the point where now it sounds like the Vikings are like, yeah, all right.
23:52Well, the student has become the master. The young grasshopper has grown up.
23:56And you're like, all right, I hope so. He was productive down the stretch last year.
24:01Started racking up sacks. Went back and watched all of them for the NFC X-Factors pod.
24:06Some of the production, you know, was a little bit matchup based.
24:10And he definitely has a ton of juice and it's like very visible.
24:14But I do think still, you know, hasn't quite tapped into his full potential as a pass rusher.
24:20So, but that's a big, that's a big pivot point is Caleb Banks going to be healthy is a big pivot point
24:27because like you said, if he's healthy, he has the potential to be the most disruptive player in the draft.
24:33Like truly. They just don't make guys that size who move like he does.
24:37Who move like that. Who move like Clarence Campbell, you know, but he's got to stay healthy.
24:43And then whatever happens at safety, if it's Jacoby Thomas or Jay Ward or whatever, you know, there's just, there's a little
24:49bit of a youth movement going on in multiple positions.
24:53But I think at this point, Brian Flores has earned the benefit of the doubt and has demonstrated the ability to compensate
25:00for weaknesses, you know, at all three levels. So, you know, and hopefully without having, if they don't have bottom of the
25:06league quarterback play, get better field position, things like that.
25:10So one of the more intriguing teams in football, certainly the Minnesota Vikings.
25:14Um, let's do the, let's do the Lions next.
25:17Lions. The poor Lions. Every time I start talking myself, I would, first of all, full disclosure, we're going to rank the teams at the end.
25:25I did not rank them beforehand. I wrote down, let's talk this out.
25:29Yeah. Okay. Yeah, no, a hundred percent. It's absolutely inscrutable.
25:32You've got one team with a great defense and question marks on offense.
25:36And then you have three teams with, I think, great offenses and massive question marks on defense.
25:41It's like, uh, so one of those teams is the Lions.
25:45So the Lions were in the top 10 offenses.
25:48Uh, the aforementioned Drew Petsing, is there out there?
25:50Let's start there. What do you, cause it's so funny, dude.
25:54Cause like, I think we think of the Lions offense last year and we're like, that was what a downfall.
26:00They really missed Ben Johnson. And then you look at the numbers and they were like top.
26:06Yes. Seven and everything. So that was honestly, I, I, I fell victim to that and like, I just, I didn't really,
26:12I thought that there was a huge drop off last year.
26:16And then I go through that. I'm like, wait, really?
26:19Every other stat that I came up with, I was just like, wait, really?
26:23Like they were, I, I'm very interested to see what Drew Petsing kind of brings to, to this offense.
26:29And especially now where your offensive line is so in flux, right?
26:33And that's, it's not just because of the Cade Mays injury, but you have Panay Sewell going from, he's trying to trist
26:40and whirfs this whole thing going from right to left, which is hard.
26:44Like, I'm tired of these guys making it look easy and like making me know, he has played it.
26:50So there's experience there. Yeah, but that is a big change.
26:54And then it's also a big change because, you know, you're like, okay, Tate Rallage on the right side, you know, year
27:01two, but he gets to play next to Panay Sewell.
27:04Psych, now he's going to play next to a rookie.
27:07Now he's great. The youth, you know, and now a lot of questions.
27:11Mahogany had a, a bit of a step back year.
27:14You mentioned Cade Mays, the center getting hurt. I mean, this is, the offensive team.
27:19We just think of like the lions and we're like, of course the line is good.
27:24Sometimes there's teams where the reputation of a position group or a unit sort of continues beyond the performance.
27:30It was like this in Seattle with the defense for like, you know, years where we're like, they're an elite defense.
27:36Like, no, they don't actually really bad of the peak Carol era.
27:40But anyways, the offensive line last year, I mean, the numbers are atrocious.
27:44Jared Goff went from, uh, having the 27th lowest quick pressure rate to like seventh in the league.
27:50Um, the adjusted lines, yard yards, adjusted line yards, probably which is FTNs like run blocking metric.
27:55They went from first in 2023, first in 2024 down to 20th last year.
28:00Like it was testament to Goff, honestly, and the skill players that they were able to keep that thing going because, and like, yeah, it's still a question.
28:08I mean, even more like rudimentary than that, like you saw it show up in kind of the step back they took in the run game.
28:17And like, part of that is Ben Johnson's departure, sure.
28:20But also like they had a hundred, just over 120 yards rushing per game.
28:24That was 14th in the league, which is not at all.
28:28Like you went from the Detroit lions being known for the bully ball that they play and, and their commitment to the run.
28:35And basically Ben Johnson just transported that to Chicago now, but, and we'll get to that.
28:40But like the, it, the way that the offensive line, I think 10 different combinations across the season because of all of
28:47these injuries, it really manifested itself in those ways of, Hey, Jared Goff was under a little bit more pressure.
28:53He had to kind of make more things happen with, you know, on the fly and couldn't count on that clean pocket.
29:00But then it also showed up in the run game, which wasn't terrible, but it was absolutely middling for a team that had been known for it.
29:09So that was, and yeah, like I'm, I'm with you where I'm just like, Oh yeah, Detroit has a good offensive line.
29:15Wait, no. Yeah. They're actually good in spite of it.
29:19Kind of right now. Which again, credit to Goff, honestly.
29:22And Gibbs, who just got paid. I, one of the things I think is interesting, Drew Petting coming from Arizona, assumption is they're going to lean.
29:30I mean, the lions love using 12 personnel. Petting was kind of the OG, like, not OG, but like Arizona used 13
29:37personnel, meaning three tight ends at a pretty high rate.
29:40The lions added, they have Tyler Conklin now as the third tight end until Laporte is coming back.
29:46It's big. And Brock Wright, who's a blocker. But, and Dan Pizzuta actually alluded to this when we did our X factors pod.
29:53It's a little bit of an issue, which is the lions are really, really good at passing out of multiple tight end
30:00sets, but actually not that great running. They were last year, second to knee paper of the play passing, which is awesome.
30:0728th running. So Jameer Gibbs, when you kind of partition out the numbers is much better at running the football when they spread things out a little bit.
30:15And also now with Montgomery back, he is going to ostensibly get more, even though they had a check out more run.
30:22So I do wonder, like, you know, Jameer Gibbs is, I mean, I'm in Ross St.
30:27Brad, it's so funny. We're like, Jameer Gibbs is the best player.
30:31We're like, I'm in Ross St. Brad. Yeah, he might have something.
30:35But I do wonder if there's a little bit of hesitation to lean too far into the multiple tight ends thing because
30:42you do want to set up Gibbs himself. So just to his numbers, again, to narrow it down to him, 49% success
30:49rate running out of 11, which is awesome, which is ridiculous.
30:5236 running out of 12, which is not so great.
30:55Yeah. And I mean, it's, do you rob Peter to pay Paul to borrow a coaching term?
31:01And as far as like, you know, you can run 12 personnel because of the guys you have, but then you also,
31:08I mean, like they love Isaac to sloth so much.
31:11And like I had to do, he said, like he's such an explosive little receiver.
31:16And it's just, it's one of those things where you have him and Amon Ross St.
31:21Brown, like lean into that passing attack. And is Joe Petzin going to do that?
31:25And like, especially if you know that Jameer Gibbs can run out of 11 very effectively.
31:30I also think like, and this could have been a symptom just of their, the issues along their offensive line and all
31:37of the kind of injuries that they had, but there was a kind of tendency to then lean on some of that
31:44jumbo personnel to kind of get the running game going a little bit more.
31:49I think they were, they were good at, it was like, I think they like ran at the seventh most in the league or something along those lines.
31:57And they're really, they're really good at that because despite the fact that there was so much and there has been so
32:04much like inconsistency along the offensive line, you still do have kind of a deep group where you can call on an
32:11extra blocker and extra lineman to get out there and kind of kickstart this thing.
32:16And that's kind of, I mean, maybe that was also Dan Campbell's kind of fail safe or pull safe when it came
32:23to, when he took over play calling and all that kind of stuff.
32:27But I mean, I think that there is a way to finagle this with Drew Petsing that you can minimize all of
32:34the question marks you have along the offensive line because of what your skill players bring to this offense and how potent it can be.
32:42And having a veteran quarterback that has seen it all, done it all and has really kept this offense afloat through everything.
32:49Yeah, I mean, Petsing with Jared Goff can, we talked about like the potentially questions around the scheme fit with O'Connell and
32:55Kyler Murray now Petsing goes to a different quarterback, same division.
32:59It should be like a really good match. Like when they made that hire, I know Cardinals fans are ready to kick
33:06him out the door, but like, I was like, that makes sense.
33:10Like his offense is exactly right for Jared Goff.
33:12I don't think they're going to reinvent the wheel.
33:15I know I talked about the person also, but I don't think it'll be that different from what we've seen.
33:22Very high under setter rates, very high play action, very high throwing off in the middle of the field.
33:28Should be fine. I think the offensive line is the only thing for me that's like the difference between is this the
33:3410th best offense versus a top five offense will go where that, you know, the right side of the offensive line goes.
33:41I'm optimistic. The defense, I have serious, I mean, I'm going to say this, well, Lions fans, before you get mad, I'm
33:48going to say this about every remaining team. That's true.
33:51That's true. That's the story of these other teams, of the, of these teams.
33:56And a lot of it has to do with injury, which is also the case for the Lions who can't field a working secondary to save their lives.
34:05I know for all the attention the Niners get for their injuries, it just feels like this Niners, not Lions defense hasn't been healthy for years.
34:13Years. Like, so up front, largely the same, another team that plays a ton of base defense.
34:18You have Malcolm Rodriguez, good old friend, as a third linebacker when they do that.
34:23But otherwise, same defensive tackle group, which is good.
34:26See if Tally Williams can take another step. DJ Wanham, the search to find someone who rushed past their opposite Aiden Hutchinson continues.
34:33You have DJ Wanham. They also drafted Derek Moore, who's a very productive pass rusher out of Michigan.
34:39I feel good about the front seven. I do too.
34:42I was just going to say, like, if there's anything I feel okay about defensively, it is, it is the front seven.
34:49And that, like, the numbers back that up even from last year.
34:52Just, like, how they, it was, it was another one of those things where I was looking through some of the stats and I was like, oh, okay.
35:01So, you know, sixth in tackle for loss, percentage, they're tied for fourth in sack rate from last year, ninth in defensive DVOA on the entire season.
35:10But it was just like, their, the doom and gloom of this was the explosive rate that they allowed and the points
35:17that they allowed, which was because of that explosive rate, which was because of the, the back level.
35:22And it's just how much can your front seven really make up for the ability to just throw over top of these guys and, and, and, and score.
35:31So, the back level. Yeah. Woof, woof. Woof, woof.
35:34Um, all right. So, first of all, I know Terry and Arnold was not good last year and, like, so I'm not, like, saying he's some great loss.
35:43However, do you know that, the coaches, the coaches didn't know that they were letting him go.
35:48Really? Yeah. That's what I found out. I was like, oh, like they, there were coaches that found out on Twitter that they were releasing Terry on Arnold.
35:57I did enjoy Kelvin Shepard being like, saying with it, like in a, in a more polite way, Terry Arnold wasn't good last year.
36:04I feel like he was like, I mean, he didn't say it that way.
36:09I don't want to, I don't want to, but he was just like, he wasn't lighting the world on fire.
36:15Um, all right. So, I, I mean, I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the starting composition will be.
36:21I know, uh, DJ Reed returns opposite him. I guess maybe Rakia Sin, who honestly was not that bad, is the leader of the clubhouse.
36:29And is a good fit for the, you know, it's a very press man, heavy defense.
36:34Um, maybe McCreary slides inside. They drafted Keith Abney, the second, and it's Ray Kastraw has been hurt his entire career, his entire career.
36:42Poor guy. Um, safety. Do you know who's starting?
36:45So, uh, Kirby Joseph's injury status remains. Absolutely. It's, which is just such a bummer.
36:49It is. And then Brian Branch, um, actually I got a little bit, I looked up his timeline because they're a little bit more.
36:57I think he's the one who's more likely to return.
37:00Yeah. He tore his Achilles. When was it? December.
37:03Right. So it was late in the season. Yeah.
37:06Um, and I think probably early ish in the season could come back, but like, it's the tough injury.
37:12So you're looking at, we, let's see, I'm looking at the names.
37:15Christian is in, was you, you know, from the box.
37:19Yeah. From the box. Yeah. Chuck Park. I mean, kind of got cross trained.
37:23Christian hasn't got kind of cross trained. I feel like at corner and safety.
37:27So you can kind of make him one of those Swiss army knives on the backside.
37:32Yeah. I mean, Avante Maddox, maybe the interesting thing, Dan Campbell just, he just said it today.
37:38Dan Campbell said it today where, cause everybody has kind of been like, all right, you're talking about how Brian Branch is
37:45on a good timeline and like his rehab's going well and this, that, the other.
37:49And then like when you were talking about Kirby Joseph, it's basically like, I don't know, so then Dan Campbell came out
37:56today and said, he's going through some personal stuff, but his rehab is on track.
38:01And I'm just like, okay, well, what does that mean?
38:04And I even tried to do some digging and I was texting some people and I was just like, is Kirby Joseph going to be okay?
38:12And all I got was like, I hope so.
38:15And I was like, okay. All right. So that it's, it's a huge bummer, but like the way that Dan was talking
38:22about it was like, they absolutely could both return this season and that's what you hope for.
38:27But how do you even stay afloat without those guys?
38:31And again, with like the explosive rate that you allowed last year and that was with them at some point in the season, it's.
38:38I think the optimistic case of the Lions, you score so many points that you're just, you know, playing a lot of run defense.
38:46I'm also going to say that for other teams in this division.
38:49Yeah. It means run defense. I meant opportunities to rush the passer.
38:53And I think that's been a priority for them too.
38:56Like when you look at the way they've approached their front, right?
39:00Um, it seems like there's, they would like to be able to get more pressure with four, maybe blitz a little bit
39:07less, maybe put a little less on us on the corners.
39:11Um, so I guess, okay, I know this has sounded really negative.
39:14Uh, there's part. I mean, Nate Hutchinson is awesome.
39:17I'm still, Lynn McNeil is awesome. Yes. I'm Derek Moore is a fun young player.
39:22I think the linebackers, you know, Jack Campbell is obviously really good.
39:26I think the optimistic case, let's, let's do this.
39:28What is required for things to go right for the lions defense?
39:32Like in your mind, what has to click in this group?
39:36Who's like one player. You're like, if this guy either takes the leap or lives up to his potential or comes out
39:43of nowhere, then I feel good about this unit.
39:45Um, there's a couple. And I do think one, one of the things I wanted to point out just kind of about
39:52this front in general was like, they were tied for six in quarterback pressure rate last year, despite being 12th in blitz rate.
40:00So they are getting pressure with four. And I think you have to continue doing that.
40:05And I feel good about the front seven. The one guy that I factors, I mean, both obviously in the pass rush
40:12because of the way that they can use him, but more in the run game too, is Jack Campbell.
40:17I mean, this is a guy that I talked to Aaron Glenn about when they drafted him at length and all Aaron
40:24Glenn told me like at the time was like, this is our, this, this guy's going to outlast me.
40:30Like this is our guy for 10 years. This is our middle linebacker for 10 years.
40:35And against the run last year, Jack Campbell was excellent.
40:39And so if you can kind of, if you can marry those two and you can get a good pass rush and,
40:45and, and mitigate the run underneath, then if your only weakness is the fact that you have maybe some of these explosives
40:52available four teams, I think that's best case scenario.
40:55Cause like, you're just not going to be able to count on the secondary, but that's nothing new with the lions.
41:02So they've still been serviceable. And this defense has still been decent at times with the buy-in of the front seven.
41:08But I think that needs to be all encompassing against the running on the pass.
41:13Yeah. I've seen some accounts that they'll play more nickel as well.
41:17So a little bit like this is a defensive played a ton of base defense.
41:22So definitely Campbell being the onus, like the onus on him and run defense is really significant.
41:27And he's excellent at it to your point. Yeah.
41:30And like branch has the earlier branch comes back.
41:33Yes. I feel cause he's a really special player.
41:35He really is. So I think, you know, it's kind of like, we'll get to there with Micah and the Packers, but
41:42it's like, if it, so to answer my own question, if either Wanham or Derek Moore, gives you eight plus sacks and
41:49branch comes back before sometime in the first quarter of the season, I think I'll feel okay about some of the weaknesses.
41:56But yeah, it's, it's, it's treading water until branch can come back.
42:00All right. Let's take a quick break, come back and let's do the Chicago bears next.
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44:55All right, we're back. Bears, another team with a sick offense and a very dubious defense in my estimation.
45:01Yeah. Really, I'll be three of these games. Let's start with the good news.
45:05Let's start with the offense. The offense is awesome and fun.
45:09It is. It's just weird. It's a weird thing.
45:11As someone who grew up in Chicago, experiencing fun and interesting and, again, dynamic offense is not something I'm used to.
45:18I want to ask you about a quote I saw from Caleb that we played on NFL Live where he talked about how it's a really great clip.
45:27He talks – it was from, I think, earlier in the offseason.
45:31But he talks about how last season it was like he was kind of treading water trying to understand.
45:37He was drinking through a fire hose. Yeah. Like just so much was on his plate.
45:42The offense was so different. There's so much complexity.
45:44And now – I'm paraphrasing, but he said, now I feel like I can focus on what the defenses are doing and
45:51like reading coverages and understanding disguise and whatnot. So I was wondering if you could speak to like his evolution and like
45:58what you're seeing from him this offseason as someone who's got boots on the ground versus maybe last offseason when he was still learning.
46:06I have to tell you, last season was – last training camp was horrendous.
46:10Like the way – like it was a hard watch every single day.
46:14It was a really hard watch. The procedural penalties were insane.
46:18It was very clear that Caleb Williams didn't really know what he was calling.
46:22He didn't really – like he wasn't even really relaying things correctly.
46:26The communication was horrendous. It's all of the things that could possibly go wrong.
46:30But like I sat there and having watched Ben Johnson kind of make the switch to offensive coordinator in Detroit and how
46:37that was really rocky in the beginning with Jared Goff, I was like not hitting the panic button a lot in a
46:44lot of the ways that the Chicago media was and Chicago fans were.
46:48Rightfully so. Again, it was horrendous looking. But Ben was very transparent throughout that entire process saying, I am overloading him.
46:55I am giving him – I'm not expecting him to succeed right away.
46:59I'm not expecting him to even look good right now.
47:02I'm trying to figure out how much he can handle.
47:05And from there, that's how I'll build my offense.
47:08That's how I'll build my playbook for the season.
47:11That's how I'll build my game plan week in and week out.
47:15And it looked like it. So then this year, flash forward to this year, fast forward to this year, it is night and day.
47:22I mean, I won't say that there aren't procedural penalties here and there and there aren't kind of some missed assignments here
47:29and clearly some routes that aren't run correctly in that – sure.
47:33That's training camp. That's installs. That's whatever. The decisiveness of Caleb Williams is palpable.
47:37The way that he just gets into the huddle and he communicates what he needs to and his – you can see his eyes moving.
47:45You can see his head moving. Like, he knows what he's supposed to do.
47:50And that was night and day from last year.
47:52I think that there's a lot of off-season work that went into this too.
47:57I mean, there were – there were, like, people, like, were walking in on Ben sleeping in the office in April.
48:03And you were just like, you absolute sicko. Like, what?
48:07I mean, compliment. I keep calling Ben a psycho, but, like, in the best way.
48:11So this is an offense that has put in a lot of work in the off-season.
48:16And Colson Loveland was telling us too about how much Caleb Williams, like, was working with the receivers.
48:22He was flying guys out to California to work with them to make sure that the timing was down.
48:28Guys like Luther Burden who – I mean, he's injured right now, but he should be back soon.
48:34We'll see how long he's out. He's not lacking for any sort of confidence at this point now that he has also
48:40been in the system for a year. It's just – you can see how everybody kind of knows what to expect.
48:47That's really exciting. I mean, the Bears – I was looking at penalties recently, and the Bears had so many penalties in
48:54the first half of this – offensive penalties the first half of the season.
48:58And so the Bears and the Jags, right, the two teams with the new play callers, with the quarterbacks, were kind of still acclimating to the new offenses.
49:07Everybody was acclimating. So I think year two with Ben Johnson, this is all really exciting to hear if you're a Bears fan.
49:14It is. As far as, like, you know, where Caleb has to get better, it's – we talked about a lot.
49:21A lot. Yeah. The big stuff, you know, he does the hard stuff really well and the easy stuff not so well.
49:28And that's – and that's reflected in the numbers.
49:31He was tied for the third most explosive plays of any quarterback in football behind only Drake May and Josh Allen.
49:37He was third in QBR under pressure. 20th kept clean.
49:41And he was sixth in QBR versus the Blitz.
49:43But then 32nd in off-target rate on short throws.
49:46It's just like – he did everything. He made, like, all the difficult stuff.
49:51You know, he was able to generate explosives and do really cool things.
49:55And then I think just down-to-down accuracy, we don't need – you don't need to hear me talk about that for the 20 millionth time.
50:03It's, like, pretty obvious. I mean, that's my biggest thing, too, is as someone who was at most of these games and
50:09just – hindsight will let you forgive what you went through watching, like, quarters one through three of these games because of the result.
50:17You know, that they're, like – they had these late quarter – or late game heroics, these fourth quarter heroics.
50:23Then they came back and they won the game and this, that, the other.
50:28But when I tell you a hard watch was quarters one through three, and the numbers back it up, too.
50:34I mean, it's just – it, like – it was so hard because it was so start-stop.
50:39And it was hard on Ben Johnson, too, because he could get into no sort of, like, play-calling rhythm.
50:45And that was the biggest thing where I was like, you need to be able to just move the ball methodically down
50:52the field, do the easy things a little bit better, a little bit more consistently.
50:57I love Ben Johnson's, though, just almost defiant commitment to the run, which is, again, what we saw in Detroit and it
51:04now has carried over into Chicago where even if the run wasn't working, Ben was like, well, I've got no other choice
51:11at this point because Caleb – it's not fourth quarter Caleb yet, so I need to tread water somehow.
51:17And they did. Dominant on the ground. Dominant offensive line.
51:20Dominant, like, yards before contact. Ben, one of the things I really like – I was looking at FDM Fantasy has –
51:27like, where they rank in various go-for-it rates and whatnot.
51:30Yeah. Second in run rate on second in long.
51:33Yeah. And then second in go-for-it rate. So a lot of the reason time they were comfortable running in second long was
51:40him knowing we're using four downs here. It's a very progressive way to, you know, call it offense.
51:45And, yeah, I mean, the run game – you know, there's some changes with the offensive line that I won't get to
51:52in a second because that is a little bit of a concern.
51:56But I do still think that they'll be very good, especially if the passing game is a little bit more efficient.
52:03And as far as the efficiency goes, you talked about Luther Burden, who was phenomenal with the ball in his hands.
52:09Romo Dunze was hurt last year. I think there's hope that maybe if he's a little bit healthier, he can live up to his draft status.
52:17Yeah. And Colston Loveland in the second half of the season slash postseason emerged as one of the best downfield threats as a tight end in football.
52:26I was looking at his splits because, you know, weeks 10 through the – especially as the season went along and then
52:33the postseason, he was massive for them. And a couple things – I mean, the second – again, week 10 through the
52:40divisional round, he was second in yards amongst tight ends behind only Trey McBride and first downs.
52:45He averaged 9.52 air yards per attempt way up from the first half of the season, which would have been generously first
52:52over the course of the entire season. And then one thing that really caught my eye in terms of his usage, Carmen,
52:59in the first half of the season, he was lined up – he was split out wide just 9% of the time.
53:06In the second half of the season, that jumped to 26% of the time as well as he took a jump in the slot.
53:13Yeah. Which is interesting. He's actually, I think, proved to the world that he's a good blocker.
53:19And that was a really cool and important development because of how – In the beginning of the season especially, yes.
53:25When he's attached to the formation. Yes. They're very good at getting defenses to play base and throwing on them.
53:32Yep. But basically, he kind of became their number one wide receiver.
53:35And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about that in like year two.
53:41I mean, that was all year one for a tight end, which is crazy.
53:45I mean, that's why Ben Johnson wanted him so bad.
53:48I really do think that Colson Loveland is the key to this entire offense for so many different reasons.
53:54And I've detailed it a few times now just why it's so important to have a guy like Colson Loveland who obviously
54:01is a receiving threat but is a willing blocker.
54:04Like his block – he's not an elite blocker yet.
54:07And it's not to say he can't get there.
54:10But Ben Johnson is willing to ISO him against DNs.
54:13And if that's the case, then you have no idea what he's about to do, whether he's attached to the formation or not.
54:20And that really helps you get the defense on his heels.
54:24That's what Ben Johnson wants to do is to be able to stay two, three steps ahead.
54:29That's why Colson Loveland is so incredibly important to this defense or this offense.
54:34And, you know, the age-old thing of like why more teams haven't been in these multiple tight end sets is essentially because
54:40you're pulling perhaps your best receivers off the field in favor of a tight end.
54:45Well, what happens when your tight end is your best receiver?
54:49And that's Colson Loveland. Like I fully think that Colson Loveland is going to end up being this team's top receiver this year.
54:56And I think that Roma Dunze is still going to kind of slot in at number two because Colson Loveland just gives
55:03you so many question marks if you're a defense.
55:06Yeah. And that is what Ben Johnson thrives off of because he loves trotting out the, you know, like the same look
55:12just to do different things out of it. And Colson Loveland is the one that unlocks all of that.
55:18On top of the fact you have Cole Komet, you have Sam Rauch now, and you can run more.
55:24He's a great tight end, the rookie that they drafted out of Stanford.
55:29So this is going to be a bridge. I think we're going to see some.
55:33He likes using, you know, using his head and not just the Stanford education, but like actually engaging block.
55:39Yeah. I mean, lovely. You know, I mentioned he was split out wide, but he was still in line a decent amount.
55:46Absolute weapon off of play action for all the reasons that you mentioned.
55:50I mean, again, like I think about all those corner routes in the postseason, the deep crossers that are available, like he's just really special player.
55:58So yeah, I think to go back to the one concern I probably have, you know, the Braxton Jones old friend at left tackle, Ozzie.
56:06It's a bummer because Ozzie Trapilo, I thought was playing so well.
56:10Well, apparently now he might be coming back. Like before, before training camp's even over, I don't like there was a footnote
56:17in an SI article about how he could be ready sooner than expected.
56:21And then Hogan Johns pressed Ryan Poles about it recently.
56:24And then Ryan Poles was like, yeah, so it turns out it's a better situation than we thought we could like, it's
56:31still on the table that he comes back during training camp.
56:35You're like, what would that would be huge? Because right now I feel very, very bad about the left tackle options.
56:41I mean, not very bad. I actually think that Judrick Wills, if he can play up to his potential for the first
56:48like essentially time that he could like, he was, he wasn't bad in Cleveland.
56:52If we can get like first couple of years, Judrick Wills in Cleveland, maybe that's what I just, I like Braxton a lot, Mina.
57:00I just. He was competent for them. He was injured last year when he lost a job and his, his anchor just, he just can't anchor.
57:08He cannot anchor. He's not built to anchor. I, I feel bad because he, I like, I like him a lot.
57:15I like him a lot. And he was serviceable and you can get by, especially when that person is playing next to
57:22Joe Tooney, like the left tackle gets to play next to Joe Tooney, but it's just protector of the year.
57:28Judrick Wills retired. Yeah. Garrett Bradbury is now the center.
57:31Yeah. I mean, not as good. They drafted Logan Jones too, to see like, you know, if they can develop him, have
57:38that swing guard kind of on the interior too.
57:41Um, all right. So top 10 offense, I believe very excited for all the reasons we described.
57:46And now we do the defense. Do we have to, I was really, uh, the Kobe Bryant injury just took me out.
57:53Okay. I know. I know for those who don't the bears defense.
57:57I talked about this when I talked about the Jags, like, sorry, the bears caught a stray here, but when you took
58:04out turnovers, they were 30 seconds success rate 30th in EPA per play 30th in yards per play.
58:09The reason we always talk about, uh, is there's multiple studies.
58:13Turnovers tend not to repeat year to year. They were the 2024 Packers, the bear 2025 bears defense was the 2024 Packers.
58:20With the turnovers too. It's not just about it's, it's actually less about the forcing of the turnovers and more about like who comes up with the ball.
58:29Cause a turnover is like inherently like chaos and you know, especially like, so the bears recovered a lot of fumble, a
58:36lot of their PBUs turned into picks. It's all stuff that just tends not to repeat year to year, especially by the
58:42way, when, uh, most of the people who got the turnovers are gone, Kevin Byard's gone, you know, uh, Sean Wright, who was like a weird turnover machine.
58:51Um, so the defense, you know, they revamped the safety group.
58:55They drafted Dillafineman, who I thought was a really cool pick for them at Oregon, a very Swiss army knife types player.
59:02And the idea was, okay, now we're going to play him next to Kobe Bryant.
59:06He's a veteran. It was really good in Seattle.
59:09He gets hurt. He's going to miss most of the season.
59:13We don't know. We have no clarity on that.
59:16Maybe from Buffalo steps in, he gets hurt. Uh, then you're like, okay, well the corner group is great.
59:21Oh no. Kyler Gordon's hurt again. Again. Doesn't have working soft tissue.
59:25Apparently it just does not. Of the defense for me, Carmen was that the pass rush was still going to be bad,
59:32but the secondary was good enough to compensate for it.
59:35But now I question whether that premise can happen.
59:38I'm, I'm with you. Exactly. And that was, I, that was all of their off season moves, their draft, like drafting Dylan
59:45Thienemann, all of that told you, telegraphed to you that that's what they were going to bank on.
59:51And now with injuries, I am left like, and I, I mean, I can't imagine Dennis Allen, like it just in his
59:58office, just throwing stuff at the wall, both figuratively and literally.
60:01Um, they're trying to like cross train, like Josh Blackwell is now like cross trained at safety.
60:06Like they're trying to figure out all of these different workarounds for Kobe Bryant being out an indefinite amount of time.
60:13First, we heard eight to 10 weeks. Now we don't know it like they're like Ben Johnson came out.
60:19I was like, I don't know where you guys got that.
60:22We're like, you know exactly where we got that.
60:25Like I don't stop arguing with us. Just let us know what's going on with them.
60:30Um, so yeah, I, I don't have a lot of optimism for the defense other than I just think that the offense
60:37is going to go out there and score 30 to 35 points a game and you might just be able to get away with it.
60:45Um, they signed Devin Bush, who I think was really good last year.
60:49And TJ Edwards was activated just recently. So the linebackers you think could be better about.
60:54I hope opposite Montez sweat. This was like one of the big mysteries of the off season.
61:00It's not really a mystery, but there's a lady reasons, but they didn't add pass rush.
61:05Yeah. Uh, I hope a bet on Austin Booker who at least has flashed for them as a young, uh, the, the young pass rusher.
61:12That's the optimistic kind of take on it is like, oh, we've got Austin Booker, but we've also been having Austin Booker
61:19for the last couple of seasons where you're like waiting for Austin Booker to take that step forward.
61:25My big thing too, was you got rid of Andrew Billings.
61:28You didn't do a whole lot as far as adding to the interior of that line either to make things easier on these, on these edge guys.
61:37Does Dio Dengbo, you know, does he, is he healthy?
61:40Does he factor into this? Like their big signing last year?
61:44He was hurt. He was hurt. Right. So, yeah.
61:46Again, I feel okay. Jalen Johnson's a good corner.
61:49Tyreek Stevenson's been up and down, but like if, so they drafted Malik Muhammad who might play.
61:55Yeah. I think the optimistic case, let's do this again, is that in the second half of the season, Kobe Bryant comes
62:01back and the secondary becomes a strength and the offense is able to put up leads so that they're forcing, you know, opposing offenses to pass.
62:10Otherwise I do, I struggle with this group. Maybe there's a late move to be made to add to the pass rush.
62:17Yeah. It's tough. Kind of running out of guys actually.
62:20So. I like, you know, maybe at the end of training camp when like that whole timeline, that's where you start.
62:26That's where you add something, which they've done before.
62:29Or, I mean, I guess best, best case scenario too, is like Javon Dexter on the interior takes a huge step forward
62:36and becomes a guy that can rush the passer from the middle or whatever.
62:40I just, I, Grady Jarrett is, is getting older and I, I don't know.
62:45I, I really, really, I was so shocked when like.
62:48The bag was still on too. Like that's the other, like, that's why I was so shocked when like they, they got
62:55Dylan Thienemann and then I just kept waiting. I was like, all right, I'm like looking at all the edge guys as they're going.
63:02And I know the draft really, like, it just didn't swing their way.
63:07I feel like cause they wanted a pass rusher, but where they were picking, they're just never worked out and they got
63:13taken before and it just didn't, it didn't work out for them.
63:17But yeah, and Thienemann's a really good player. Like I like the, he's really good for them, but it is tough.
63:24Um, Hey, Montez, what was good last year? First double digit, uh, sack guy for them since 2021, Robert Quinn in 2021.
63:31So the ageless wonder who had 18 and a half sacks.
63:34I think that you're like, like I said, it's basically the same.
63:38I mean, honestly, we're about to do it again shortly.
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64:50Packers. All right. So let's, again, copy-paste here. I feel much better about the offense than the defense.
64:55The Packers, however, have somebody walking through that door in like week six.
64:59Yeah. And that's going to really, and so in some ways I feel like they're actually a little better equipped.
65:06Although, I mean, the Lions already have Aiden Hutchinson.
65:09But I think the Packers have a better secondary right now than Detroit.
65:13Let's start with the offense. Really, some interesting things to discuss here.
65:16So this offense was top 10. It's been top 10 every year with, you know, Matt LaFleur.
65:22Yeah. They let guys walk. So what used to be a like, hey, we have a million receivers and they're all equals and it's, you know.
65:30That's our whole identity. And yeah. It's really number one wide receiver is Matt LaFleur.
65:35Now they're actually, it's a streamlined group. With Watson, who they paid, Matthew Golden, their first round draft pick last year, and Jaden Reid.
65:42Behind them there's, you know, Bo Melton, Sabian Williams.
65:45But Tucker Craft appears to be on track to play week one, which is huge.
65:50Let me talk about him. Questions about Josh Jacobs, potentially a suspension looming, but Marshawn Lloyd, not John Woods, seems to be healthy.
65:57Finally. I know. There's questions about the Packers offensive line, but there's always questions about the Packers offensive line every year.
66:04Jordan Morgan kicks out to left tackle. Zach Bacoboelle, no, not Zach Tom, is stalwart at right tackle.
66:09Yeah. So look, I had them as a top 10 offense.
66:13They just are. Every year they find a way to make it work.
66:17I want to pose a question for you about this Packers offense.
66:21Because again, on one hand, they've been so efficient and they always rank so high in every, both they're efficient and they're explosive.
66:28They're really like a very reliable unit. However, I tried to put myself in the mindset of like during the year when
66:35I, why was I getting frustrated watching them at times?
66:38What did you come up with? I wrote Matt LaFleur.
66:41Do you need to run the football this much?
66:44So, okay. Right. The next to stats tracks this thing called run rate over expectation, which they based on situation, formation, personnel.
66:51It's really good as opposed to just looking at flat run rates because run rates are influenced by game situation.
66:57Yada, yada. Yada, the Packers were first in the league.
67:00They ran the ball based on this 15% more than expected to put that in context.
67:05Baltimore, who we think of as like a running team was 3%.
67:09So then I thought, well, maybe Malik Willis. Let me take out the Malik Willis games even higher.
67:15Well, they were more efficient than explosive, but your quarterback is had a 98 QBR on third and long.
67:21Yeah. He had a, he was second in QBR non play action.
67:24So it's not like you have to baby him.
67:27Right. Right. So I guess that's what I want to posit to you.
67:31Like, I think Malifor is great. I understand also like the run game is very fun.
67:36Like there's run actions are a big part of what they do.
67:40Generally, there's an RPO company, all that, but like maybe a little less, a little less.
67:45Like, what do you think? I know I'm with you, especially when you like, they were four, like they had top 10
67:52and stuff rate to like, like there were, there were times where some games that were just like, they were not like, it was not.
68:00The Eagles get, I mean, the weather would be a, it was not working.
68:04Yes. It was not working. And I'm just like, all right, can we move off of this?
68:10Like, I know I've praised Ben Johnson for like his defiant sense of just like sticking with the run no matter what,
68:17but that's, but that you, and you're really good at it.
68:20B that's kind of like, especially when your quarterback is still developing into your system, you just, you need to give him that safety net.
68:28This is not the case, as you just mentioned with Jordan love and have like this, this passing attack.
68:34So bottom third and rushing EPA too. Like there was just times where you were like, okay, enough.
68:39I totally am on board with that. Especially when you do have all of the question marks along the offensive line that
68:46you did and you're like, why are we? And it made, I couldn't tell if it was like Josh Jacobs looked a
68:53little washed or it was just the over-utilization or what it necessarily was in the, in the backfield there.
68:59But I think the line was a big part of it.
69:03Cause that was like, it was similar to the lions was kind of slept on how many different like rotation, like the injuries that they had.
69:11And I, we're just like, they'll figure it out.
69:14But yeah, I do think it's like, all right, maybe it's funny.
69:18Cause my lesson from less, the let Russ cook movement at a certain point was like, actually the run game was very important for Russell Wilson.
69:26And, but I think when you look at the Packers offense, it's not like they face a disproportionate amount of like single
69:33high coverage because of it or team stack the box.
69:36No. So I don't know. I think that's just something that I've been noodling with, with, um, I know it's the same.
69:43They're the most frustrating team in this division in so many ways, because I like, I look at all of their offensive
69:50stats too, but then that translated into what? Like 23 points per game.
69:54And I can't for the life of me understand why they were like not productive enough.
69:59Like they were middling and red zone percentage and whatever, but like, not to the point where it would explain the fact
70:06that they had the third highest explosive rates percentage.
70:08They're fourth in EPA per play again, middling and red zone, but like 23 points per game is all you have to show for it.
70:16And they have 20, they were 21st in time of possession too.
70:20The officers didn't even have the ball that long.
70:23And I'm like, how are you not sustaining drives when your offensive efficiency is so good, but like the production isn't there.
70:30It was, it just, it, it boggles my mind as to who this Packers team is, was, I guess Matt LaFleur is
70:37like stripping it all down this off season or like, that's what he said is he got all of his coaches together.
70:44He's, he said it to Jordan Rodrigue, good friend of ours, um, that he like this, this off season was spent with
70:51his coaches just kind of like stripping it all down and we're going to start from square one.
70:56And however, you know, true that is, it needs it.
70:59Something needs to happen. I, I think as far as the receiving group, the question remains, do they, do they even have,
71:06they still haven't, do they have a number one?
71:09Um, cause yeah, you're paying Christian Watson like a number one, but Matthew golden, you want him to take a leap, you,
71:16you know, you want golden to look like, to look like he did the very end of the season.
71:22Right. On the game. I will say Tucker craft is like, okay.
71:26Like he's, he's him. Like he is a top, I think can absolutely be a top three tight end.
71:32The best tight end in football. Like that, our last year, he was a monster.
71:36The, uh, the effect that Tucker craft has on this offense.
71:40Like I did the, I broke down like them with him on the field, with him off the field.
71:46It is equivalent to what Micah Parsons impact is on defense.
71:49Like just the way that the, the, the, their offensive metrics fluctuate, their success rate fluctuates, the points that they have their EPA, all of that stuff.
71:58Like EPA per play with him on the field 0.12 EPA per play without him 0.02.
72:03Like going from being like a top two or three offense to like, to bottom third.
72:08Yeah. And it's like, it's again, it's just success rate 47.4% with him 42.5% without him, which again is that same fluctuation,
72:15even though it's, you know, what five percentage points, whatever it is.
72:19But like, that is how important Tucker craft is to this offense and how much of an impact he has.
72:25So the fact that he could in fact be ready for week one, you don't have to lean on the wide receiver
72:32group as much because they're not as deep. And that's the biggest concern I have now.
72:37Like if one of those guys, I know if one of them goes down, if one of them, when, when, when, when,
72:44you talk about crafts on us, but it's Watson's over the years are really significant and it's not for him.
72:50It's not just him getting the ball, but his ability to stretch the field creates so much space, like him and craft.
72:57You kind of need both of them on the field at the same time because Watson is the one who creates the space.
73:04And craft. Yeah. The advantage of the space. Yes, exactly.
73:07Um, and so like, if you could tell me that you get a full season of Watson and craft, I'm like, kind of set it and forget it.
73:16This is a top six, seven offense. I feel good about it.
73:20Obviously Watson has had his injury history. Um, so yeah, I, I, I, I, I'm still very optimistic about the Packers offense.
73:27Notice I haven't even talked about Jordan love. Yeah.
73:30One millionth time. I think he's a top 10 quarterback and it's pretty obvious.
73:34Yes. Um, we're on the same page there. Morey me.
73:37The line, not worry. It's been a long time since I felt super solid about it.
73:42Yeah. Um, so I think, you know, just whether or not this Packers offense can get the heel ceiling.
73:48Can Lafleur let the governor off a little bit?
73:51Can Watson stay healthy and craft? If you tell me those two things and then Jordan Morgan and left tackles are really important.
73:58Um, yeah, ancient, I talked about that. Packers fans, you could check out.
74:02I think he was my NFC X factor for the Packers.
74:06And I went back and watched him at right tackle and honestly, he was pretty good.
74:11So, uh, the defense. All right, here we go again.
74:14Sanis North baby. When did this happen? When did this happen?
74:17Because like the way that I grew up with this division was not like, you know, the purple people eaters and the
74:24monsters of the midway and the black and blue division, which was just running the football in defense.
74:30And now it could not be. So the Packers defense to me is a very simple proposition.
74:35Can you survive until Micah Parsons returns? Correct. I believe they were talking about like week six, the Cowboys game.
74:42Yeah. You know, he's going to try to get back to that.
74:45He's, he's told every reporter that's asked him about it.
74:49Like a Cowboys game, the Cowboys game, the Cowboys game.
74:52So here's something I find really interesting about that.
74:55Okay. So I think we agree the premise is like, all right, when you get Parsons back, it's totally different defense.
75:01Everything changes. You saw that last year when you took him out, it completely collapsed.
75:06It was honestly a little bit dubious even with him because of some of the holes.
75:11So new defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon. So Jonathan Gannon in Philadelphia, the defense sometimes much maligned for this, but it was very
75:18like, we are going to rush for radio pressure for way to play a lot of quarters behind it.
75:24We're going to try to cap explosives, but we're leaning on our front four.
75:28We're not, you know, okay. So then he goes to Arizona where they try it's he's Nick Rallis comes with him.
75:35He's it's more chaos ball, honestly, but a lot of compensating for some of the weaknesses.
75:40I feel like in the first half of the season, you need Jonathan Gannon to be as like, to be like a
75:47mad scientist, frankly, more so than what you saw in Philadelphia.
75:50Philadelphia, because let me tell you, they ain't getting pressure before.
75:54No, look at this right now. You know, sure.
75:56Van Ness is healthy. He'll be better. I believe it.
76:00Devante Wyatt's back and healthy. It's quite a huge loss for them.
76:03They'll get more pressure. But I kind of think your best pass.
76:07I mean, Edger and Cooper. That's my kind of X factor for this team.
76:12Or your, your, your strength is your safeties. Right.
76:14Javon Buller. Can you make him part of the rush?
76:18Can you, you know, buy some time, confuse offenses?
76:20Because he's got to pull out every trick in his bag these first six weeks without Micah Parsons.
76:26I feel like he is quietly one of the bigger X factors in the division.
76:31Jonathan Gannon specifically. Yes. Yeah, absolutely. Like you have to, and he said it, he's going to devise essentially one defense for before Micah Parsons is back.
76:39And then another defense for when he returns, because when he returns, you absolutely can just be like, my guys are better than your guys go.
76:47But before that you are going to, I, there's all of the back, the back level is going to be so incredibly crucial.
76:55And I do have questions on the kind of the corners of this, like of this team, which I had.
77:01But you have safeties. You have three legitimate starting safeties.
77:04Really good. This is one of the better safeties.
77:07Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard. Great. Do something with them.
77:10All three of those guys need to be on the field pretty much at all times.
77:15Yeah. If I'm Jonathan Gannon and I'm trying to survive without Micah Parsons right now.
77:20And again, to your point, confuse offenses. Buy some time for the rush to get there because we have been wanting Lucas
77:27Van Ness to kind of make that next step and make that next leap.
77:31So hopefully with him being healthy, he can actually do it.
77:35I do think Devontae Wyatt has been very underrated kind of in his Packers tenure.
77:40So losing was huge. It was. It clearly. Bullard.
77:42It's funny because the three safeties, they're so good too.
77:46Like they're so different skill sets. McKinney. They complement each other really well.
77:50He was a true center fielder. Takes so much range.
77:53Evan Williams, one of the best run defending safeties in the entire NFL right now.
77:57And then Bullard, I almost feel like can Gannon find a way to use him as like a Derwin James style.
78:04Like get him closer to the line of scrimmage.
78:07That's a good call. Threaten to rush him. He's really.
78:10Yes. Like that's your strength. Right? 100%. DeBron and Zaire Franklin to replace Quay Walker.
78:15They're fine. I think they'll be fine. It's funny because I feel like there's a lot of skepticism around the Packers, but
78:22I do wonder if the skepticism is a little bit of like.
78:25We've been so high in this team and it's kind of the same, but it's.
78:30But I think maybe what's lost in some of that skepticism is how injured they were last year.
78:36Wyatt, Kraft, Parsons. So if all of those guys.
78:39This is a team that I find very hard to rank because I think at the end of the season, they could
78:46be easily the best team in the division. But I think at the beginning of the season, I don't know.
78:52But they were so winning games and like competitive even without them, which again, credit to LeFleur.
78:57It's very good coach. Yeah. I don't know, man.
79:00Corners, like you said, they're an issue. They were an issue last year.
79:04They drafted Brandon Cissé is really athletic, interesting, but a little bit raw in my estimation.
79:09Hargrave, Javon Hargrave switches teams. He should be fine.
79:12It's a reunion with Jonathan Gannon. I just realized from Philadelphia.
79:15All right. Are you really going to make me rank these teams?
79:19I'll go first, but I'm actually literally. I'm in my head.
79:23I've gone back. So what complicates this is the Lions have a really easy schedule.
79:27Right. And if they didn't, I don't think. Lappily easy, in fact.
79:31Yeah. And I think the Lions offense is going to be awesome.
79:35I'm so skeptical of the Bears defense. I think all these offenses are going to be awesome.
79:40And like I said, I think the Packers are going to be really good at the end of the year.
79:47Crush. Oh, my God. All right. I am going to go.
79:50I can't put the Lions third. That doesn't make sense with that schedule.
79:54I'm this. This could end up with any order.
79:57It literally could. And it's not going to shock me.
80:00Vikings are so weird. All right. Screw it. Let's go.
80:03Lions. Packers. Bears. Vikings. I hate that. I had the Bears first in the division like a month ago.
80:09It's so stupid. I don't know why. I keep.
80:12I mean, I keep talking about how the Vikings could win this division even.
80:16And that would not shock me. I I've been also saying about the Bears.
80:21I think that they are going to have a worse record while being a better team.
80:26So, like, I could see them winning only nine or ten games despite the fact that they are better offensively because, like,
80:33that defense just really, really bothers me. But I also don't think that that really matters until you get to the postseason.
80:40But do you even get to the postseason? That's what throws me off with all of these teams that have these defensive
80:47question marks where I'm like, all right, your offense can carry you through the regular season, maybe.
80:52But defensive, like, you know, I'm of the old text of defense is what wins you championships in games comes in the postseason.
80:59Anyway. Anyway, I don't know. Packers. Vikings. Bears. Lions.
81:02I don't know. Let's just throw that at the wall.
81:05Wait, what did you reverse? That was crazy. I don't know.
81:09I don't know. Is that the reverse of what you said?
81:12I don't even remember what you said. I don't even know.
81:16Next tomorrow, I'm going to rank them differently. This is throw this out.
81:20Honestly, don't aggregate me. Bears fans, I'm sure. You're curious.
81:23You could easily win this division. I want to be.
81:26I truly. This is the most chaotic, stupidest division in football.
81:29Yes. We love her dearly. God. All right. I don't even know.
81:33I'm going to change it tomorrow. I literally in the power hour had the Bears and Packers first every time.
81:39But then the schedule, the Lions. The schedule, the Lions.
81:43The schedule. I mean, like, the Vikings are going to have a relatively easy schedule, too.
81:48And the Bears strength. The Bears are the number one strength of schedule.
81:52Like, it's a tough schedule that they're going to have to go up against.
81:56So I don't even know if 30 points a game is going to save them.
82:01But I think they're going to be a better offense.
82:04I think they're going to be great on offense.
82:07I think they're going to be really great. They're all really good offenses.
82:11That's Carmen Vitale. Carmen, where can people check out your work?
82:14I know there's some stuff that you can't talk about just yet.
82:18But where can people find you? And then they'll learn about those things.
82:22My Fox Sports radio show airs 3 to 5 p.m.
82:25on Central Time on Saturdays. It's 1 to 3 p.m.
82:28Pacific. And I'm doing a lot as far as, like, social media.
82:32But you can also catch me on a lot of local things here in Chicago.
82:37On the score. Some of the various TV stations there.
82:40So, yes, you mentioned some things I can't talk about yet.
82:44All right. But we will. On all platforms. And those things will come to light soon.
82:49Yes. Thank you guys for tuning in. Oh, my God.
82:52I hate my rankings already. I want to walk them back.
82:55I hate them. I will be back next week to talk about preseason football.
83:00It begins. And then we will finish with the AFC North.
83:03So, I will catch you then. Thank you, as always, to the folks at Omaha Productions.
83:08Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster. See you guys later.
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