First Class Fantasy - Jonathan Brooks' Price is SKYROCKETING

Pierce's status remains unclear heading into season. He is not yet in team drills but is moving around and looks good; however, conflicting reports suggest uncertainty. Colts signed Keenan Allen, which could indicate either they are not comfortable with Pierce's timeline or they don't love what they've seen from Josh Downs in two-receiver sets. Pierce has fallen from early fifth round ADP to eighth round in recent drafts, and speaker is now interested at that price point even if he misses a month or lands on PUP.

Out for at least a month, possibly longer. Given his age (approaching or at 30) and long NFL tenure, his body recovery may be slower than younger players. His absence opens up targets and workload for Travis Etienne.

Speaker has half as many shares of Bijan Robinson as Parker Washington. Robinson goes anywhere in the late fifth to early-to-mid sixth round. He was drafted seventh overall last year but speaker still thinks he's a big talent in a good offense, though less invested than in Parker Washington.

Speaker leaves every draft with either a share of Blake Corum or Jonathan Brooks for upside, with over 20 shares of each. Both are viewed as upside shots in the later rounds.

With Ricky Pearsall gone, Brandon Aiyuk (referred to as 'Strib' or 'Strib City') has become one of the biggest movers on draft boards. He was previously going just past Debo Samuel but has now risen to the seventh round (sometimes eighth). Speaker notes that people initially made fun of the pick but are now playing catch-up because they want exposure to him after seeing his strong preseason usage.

Chase Brown is projected to receive 90 targets this season; he benefits from playing alongside two alpha receivers (T. Higgins and Jamar Chase) who lighten the box and reduce contact at the line of scrimmage. Brown is more favored than James Cook and CMC/JT this year due to his high touch volume last season.

Going in the 11th round or early 12th. Speaker will draft him at that price. Rodriguez goes back to Cone with Kentucky. He has limited receiving experience (seven NFL receptions, maybe 20 throughout college), so he won't be catching passes. The Jaguars are giving both Rodriguez and Tootin a chance to win the job, with Rodriguez offering a known commodity—he'll fall forward and get yards consistently, though without big-play upside.

ADP has risen from the 50s in casual formats (Underdog, DraftKings) to early fourth round; now going at the 3-4 turn in NFFC. Speaker notes he's been one of his favorite players to draft this offseason because he stylistically matches well with Josh Allen's backyard football style—Moore is a freestyle player who thrives when plays extend, contrasting with his fit in Ben Johnson's meticulous offense. His game complements Allen's ability to extend plays. Stacking him with Allen at the 3-4 turn makes sense given their offensive compatibility.

DJ Moore has risen to early fourth round in NFFC ADP over the last few days and is creeping up in casual formats (Underdog, DraftKings) where he has held ADP in the 50s for most of the offseason.

Used as an example of a fifth-round pick in a 'building backwards' strategy where speaker waits until the fifth round to secure a strong running back, then pairs it with an upside shot like Jonathan Brooks in the same round, and secures an RB3 later (eighth round) with players like Dobbins or Mason. This approach allows for four strong wide receivers while maintaining running back depth.

Debo is going off the board at pick 126 and speaker really likes his cost. From weeks 1-11 last year with 49ers, he was WR16 in PPG. He struggled in Washington and is now back with San Francisco, where he is in really good shape and lean (previously put on weight during pneumonia, which was a major health factor). Speaker views this as getting a piece of a top-five offense at pick 126 with a weapon the 49ers know how to use, especially given health concerns across the 49ers roster.

Speaker does not find himself drafting DK Metcalf much, despite the Steelers offense being viewed as having value. Speaker notes the entire Pittsburgh offense is dirt cheap in price, but it's a matter of picking the right guy; if taking one Steelers receiver, speaker tends to prefer Pittman.

At 33 years old, Kittle was not drafted early by speaker but is now being drafted more frequently as he is looking good in camp. Speaker is starting to draft him more, suggesting his price has become attractive enough to warrant selection despite age concerns.

Jaden Daniels is going at pick 100 in drafts, which speaker finds crazy given his elite upside. Speaker notes the difference in points per game at QB is not very high, but elite quarterbacks like Daniels could easily finish as QB2 and give massive positional advantage. Despite this upside, he is still being pushed down far in drafts, suggesting significant value at his ADP.

Warren is going a full round ahead of Rico Dowdle in ADP despite Rico being viewed as the lead back. Speaker has historically been a Warren guy but notes that Steelers ran the ball 114 times last year (or 80 on Warren's own), suggesting third-down role for Warren with dump-off passes. Speaker is not drafting much Warren this year despite past preference, indicating the lead-back role may be limited.

Jeremiah Love suffered a high ankle sprain in preseason and has fallen from the 2-3 turn to the 3-4 turn; the high ankle sprain is concerning for durability. However, he retains second-half league-winner potential if healthy, and the Falcons have a capable backup in Carson Beck and one of the best playoff schedules.

Now going at the 3-4 turn instead of the 2-3 turn where speaker was previously uncomfortable; this price drop makes him more comfortable taking shares. The shift in ADP opens up value for Love as other players' prices rise.

Jonathan Brooks' ADP is soaring up the board due to Chubba Hubbard's injury, creating a significant value opportunity as his draft price rises in response to increased opportunity.

ADP has risen significantly; went as high as fourth round in FFPC format a week ago, now at 6-5 in this format. Was living at the 5-6 turn previously. Speaker leaves every draft with either a share of Brooks or Blake Corum for upside, with over 20 shares of each. The preseason game against the Bills actually increased speaker's conviction rather than souring him. Brooks was very talented at Texas, playing primarily after Bijan Robinson. Speaker's entire thesis is on his pass-catching ability; with a weak Panthers offensive line and weak quarterback play (starter threw for just over 200 yards only three times last year), the offense will rely on dump-off passes. Brooks is being featured in the passing game in practice clips, not just dump-offs but also downfield routes. Speaker is all-in on Brooks as the silver lining in a bleak Carolina offense, and believes he doesn't fail as a player.

Going off the board at pick 71; speaker is a long-time believer in Downs' talent and expects him to get opportunity in two-receiver sets even with Keenan Allen signing. The core thesis: when Downs plays two-thirds of snaps, he crushes; speaker expects that volume this year despite the Allen addition, which was brought in primarily for familiarity with head coach and to replace Alec Pierce temporarily. Speaker willing to 'die on that hill' and suggests it might even be a financial conviction.

Speaker expresses concern that Father Time is catching up to Allen. Evidence: first seven games last year he averaged seven targets per game; next nine games he had seven targets once; last regular season game he had 13 targets but only seven catches for 36 yards. Speaker acknowledges Allen can get open in short-intermediate areas but expects Downs to play all over the field, suggesting limited upside for Allen in this offense.

Kenneth Walker is too good of a value to pass up when falling to the turn in the second round; Matt Modica took him at picks 8-9 in slow primes and projects him at Kareem Hunt's rookie season production level. Walker is the dynamic back the Chiefs have lacked for years, and Andy Reid paid him to be the focal point of the offense.

Currently going at pick 81; speaker's second-ranked quarterback. Despite typically not drafting quarterbacks high, speaker is willing to take elite talent falling this far, noting it's hard to pass up when value falls to you.

Injured and did not play in the preseason game, which was a tell that the Jaguars want to rely on him in the passing game. However, he suffered a soft tissue injury in the next practice and is out for the entire rest of preseason, opening up opportunity for Tootin to step up and catch passes.

Malik Nabers has completed a 180-degree turnaround in draft value; Matt Modica now advises to draft him early and often. Nabers is going mid-to-early second round in NFFC (pick 25 at latest), and Modica projects him to creep into the first round by September as positive news continues. Even at 90% health, Nabers' elite volume is better than 95% of available wide receivers, and there are few mouths to feed in the Giants offense.

Broke out over the last nine games plus playoffs after the offense was geared toward him in week eight. Speaker has drafted him anywhere from mid-sixth round to the 3-4 turn and is one of his most owned players. He is expecting Parker Washington to get a contract extension before opening day. Despite an undisclosed injury keeping him day-to-day, speaker remains invested and hopeful it's minor or personal.

Parker Washington is speaker's most-owned receiver (along with Josh Downs as second-most owned). Speaker has made bets on the Carolina offense and is drafting Parker Washington heavily, indicating strong conviction in his upside.

Speaker was a major fan of Pearsall and drafted him as his fourth receiver at a perfect price point. However, Pearsall is now gone (likely injured or off the board). His departure has opened the door for other 49ers receivers like Brandon Aiyuk to rise in ADP.

Speaker believes Rico will be the lead back in Dallas despite Jalen Warren going a full round ahead in ADP. All camp reports indicate Rico has looked phenomenal and will get the bulk of carries; both backs will catch passes, but Rico will be the primary rusher. Speaker is shocked at his price point and calls him one of his favorite board values in best ball format at $150 for NFC championship, noting he has seen Rico slip into the 10th round.

Speaker ranks LaPorta as his number four tight end this year and finds himself drafting him a ton. LaPorta is poised for a big year given the Lions' last-place schedule and expectation that the offense bounces back significantly. Speaker views him as one of the premium tight ends (not elite tier, but special) with ability to win weeks.

Currently going at pick 54 overall in the fifth round. With Alvin Kamara out for at least a month (possibly longer given his age and injury history), Etienne's workload should increase. Speaker has moved him up in rankings to right ahead of Kyron and right behind Javante Williams, pushing him into fourth-round consideration. The loss of Tyson (two-month injury) also means more targets available. Speaker is now getting shares after previously avoiding him, especially as he falls to the 5-6 turn in NFFC formats where receivers push running backs down.

Despite assumptions that he would become a full-time offensive player if given the opportunity, Hunter is still not playing significant snaps on offense in joint practices. In recent joint practices, he had 28 snaps on defense and only 2 snaps on offense, primarily playing cornerback. This is a cautionary sign that the injury-away narrative may not materialize as expected.