The Lineup Show - The BEST Fantasy Football Pick In Every Round with FantasyPros Derek Brown
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
53 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 5, 2026
Published
Wed, August 5, 2026
32
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Baker MayfieldMalik NabersColston LovelandDavid MontgomeryMarvin Harrison Jr.A.J. BrownAntonio WilliamsBo NixBrock BowersBrock PurdyCarnell TateChigoziem OkonkwoChris GodwinChuba Hubbard
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveValue9:52
A.J. Brown is an elite value at the end of the second round. Despite negative sentiment, he finished as the WR11 last year in a low-pass-rate offense. Now in New England with a superior deep-ball quarterback and a tougher schedule that necessitates more passing, Brown is positioned for career-highs in targets, yards, and touchdowns.
Insight pageAntonio Williams
PositiveSleeper47:55
Antonio Williams is the preferred late-round rookie receiver target for upside, currently holding an ADP of 176. He is the clear favorite to take the WR2 role on his team, making him a priority target in the final rounds of drafts.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeInjury29:02
The source notes that Mayfield's arm injury last season was more severe than publicly acknowledged, evidenced by him wearing a sleeve in practice and games to hide the fact that his throwing arm was black and blue before he even appeared on the injury report.
Insight pagePositiveProjection29:05
Derek Brown defends Baker Mayfield's outlook, noting his 4,500-yard, 41-touchdown pace in 2024 and his MVP-caliber start in 2025. Brown emphasizes that Mayfield's performance was hampered by significant, hidden injuries, suggesting his true ceiling is higher than recent perception.
Insight pagePositiveValue39:41
Despite playing through a sprained MCL and PCL from Week 2 onward last season, Baker Mayfield finished as the QB12 and was the QB3 in 2024. He is currently a screaming value as the QB17, and with the excitement surrounding Tampa Bay's weapons like Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan, Mayfield is being overlooked.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection25:31
Fantasypros Derek Brown Playerprofiler references Bo Nix's finish as the QB7 last year as a baseline for the floor of rushing quarterbacks in their second year, suggesting this aligns with Jackson Dart's current draft position.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveValue30:25
The source suggests that drafting a high-upside quarterback like Brock Purdy late allows fantasy managers the flexibility to target elite tight ends like Brock Bowers.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue30:08
Purdy is a massive value at his QB12 ADP. He has finished as the QB5, QB10, and QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last three years and has led the league in touchdown rate twice. With weapons like Mike Evans and training camp standout Deion Stribling, he offers league-winning upside as the last QB1 off the board.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveBreakout21:46
Fantasypros Derek Brown is high on Carnell Tate at his 67th overall ADP, citing his status as a top-tier prospect, high draft capital, and the offensive scheme of Brian Daboll, who historically funnels targets to his WR1.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
PositiveValue45:28
Chig Okonkwo is a screaming value, especially if he becomes the second target on the Commanders. Among tight ends with at least 50 targets last year, he ranked 4th in YAC, 3rd in contested catch rate, and 3rd in separation. He is expected to benefit from playing in an offense similar to the one that made Zach Ertz productive, and he remains a value even if Stefan Diggs signs with Washington.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue26:59
Derek Brown is increasingly excited about Chris Godwin at the 8-9 turn, citing his high-end production in 2024 prior to an ankle injury and the Buccaneers' commitment via a massive contract as evidence of his long-term health and role security.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeBust32:01
Chuba Hubbard is described as one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL last year, recording zero explosive runs on over 130 carries and ranking in the bottom five in every per-touch metric.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveBreakout21:50
Colston Loveland is a league-winning tight end value in the fourth round. His late-season sample size (weeks 16-20) showed elite metrics, including a 25.6% target share and 2.49 yards per route run, outperforming both Trey McBride and Brock Bowers in key efficiency stats. He has the potential to be the next elite tight end.
Insight pagePositiveValue30:32
The source suggests that drafting a high-upside quarterback like Brock Purdy late allows fantasy managers the flexibility to target tight ends like Colston Loveland.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection25:50
Derek Brown highlights Daniel Jones as a worthwhile upside shot, noting his high rushing volume and the significant upgrade in his supporting cast compared to last year, specifically the addition of Malik Nabers.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue19:51
Fantasypros Derek Brown argues that David Montgomery is being unfairly labeled as 'washed' despite superior efficiency metrics compared to Woody Marks, including ranking 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in first downs per route run.
Insight pagePositiveValue30:44
David Montgomery is a premier value in the fifth round. Now the clear lead back in a run-heavy offense, he is being drafted as the RB23 despite having a profile that suggests low-end RB1 upside. He remains highly efficient, ranking 12th in yards after contact per attempt and first downs per route run.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveRole16:53
Devonta Smith is a smash-value pick in the third round. With A.J. Brown gone, Smith is expected to move from the slot to the outside, where he previously achieved a 2.95 yards per route run. His historical production without Brown—a 35.1% target share—proves he can function as a true WR1.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout28:39
Derek Brown expresses optimism for Emeka Egbuka, suggesting he can coexist with Chris Godwin in the Zach Robinson offense, which is led by a high-volume passer in Baker Mayfield.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue3:46
James Cook is a slam-dunk value at the back end of the first round. He possesses the volume to compete with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, and his passing game ceiling is poised to be unlocked by Pete Carmichael's arrival in Buffalo, who historically targets running backs at a high rate.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection25:18
Fantasypros Derek Brown Playerprofiler notes that Jayden Daniels was the only quarterback in an 11-year sample who failed to hit his ADP in his second year, which was attributed to injury and a high draft cost (QB3).
Insight pageJoe Mixon
PositiveProjection19:43
Fantasypros Derek Brown highlights Joe Mixon's 2024 performance as the RB9 in fantasy points per game to illustrate the high-end ceiling potential for veteran running backs like David Montgomery.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveBreakout31:04
Jonathan Brooks is fully recovered from his second ACL surgery and is being eased into a massive workload. He is expected to be the workhorse for the Carolina Panthers by midseason at the latest. His college metrics were elite, ranking 21st in yards after contact, 9th in elusive rating, and 21st in yards per route run.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveValue22:32
Fantasypros Derek Brown references Malik Nabers as a previous example of a player who crushed his ADP despite public doubt, drawing a parallel to the current market sentiment surrounding Carnell Tate.
Insight pageNegativeRole22:46
Derek Brown notes that Malik Nabers might start slow out of the gate, though the team has added other pieces to the offense and the offensive line is expected to be much improved.
Insight pagePositiveRole26:03
Derek Brown views Malik Nabers as the primary bright spot in the Giants' receiving room, noting that his presence significantly elevates the offense compared to the previous season.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeValue22:46
Derek Brown recalls Marvin Harrison Jr. being drafted as the 16th overall pick in fantasy drafts during a previous season, noting the context of his physical development at that time.
Insight pageNegativeValue22:48
Fantasypros Derek Brown recalls that Marvin Harrison Jr. was drafted as the 16th overall pick in fantasy drafts during his rookie year, noting how quickly market expectations for elite prospects can shift.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveProjection30:06
Derek Brown and the show hosts identify Mike Evans as one of their favorite picks for the current season.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue40:56
Stefan Diggs is a massive value regardless of where he signs. Even coming off an ACL injury, he was the WR23 in fantasy points per game despite a limited 65.4% route share (62nd among qualifiers). He ranked 20th in receiving yards per game, 22nd in target per route run, and 8th in both yards per route run and first downs per route run. He should be drafted in the late 20s/early 30s range among wide receivers.
Insight pageTetairoa McMillan
PositiveValue22:10
Fantasypros Derek Brown uses Tetairoa McMillan's 2024 season—where he was drafted as the WR25 (pick 56) and finished as the WR15—as a precedent for why current drafters are undervaluing Carnell Tate.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeBust20:10
Fantasypros Derek Brown expresses skepticism regarding the hype surrounding Woody Marks, noting that he was the RB26 last year and that his profile is inefficient compared to David Montgomery.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:21Terms and more at applecard.com. Fantasy football drafts are the best part of the year, boys.
1:25But who are the best players to draft in every round to help you win your fantasy football league?
1:31We're going round by round with the single best player to draft for fantasy football this season.
1:36Let's go. Welcome into the lineup fantasy football show.
1:38I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And Mello, not only are we being visited by a very, very, very special guest today,
1:45we're actually being visited by our first ever returning guest here at the lineup fantasy football.
1:49We have got our guy, Derek Brown from Fantasy Pros because we had so much fun last time, but not enough.
1:56We need to have a little bit more. Derek, how's everything going?
1:59Doing good, guys. Does that make me the ghost of Christmas past or present?
2:03I'm kind of losing my place here. I think you're the ghost of football future.
2:08Oh, well played, sir. Well played. I'm pumped. We're going to talk a little bit about some fantasy football here.
2:13The best pick of every round for fantasy football in 2026.
2:17We'll be using Fantasy Pros' full PPR ADP as of right now.
2:20But Derek, you're on the clock. Who is the best pick in round one right now at their cost?
2:26Simply based off of the value and where you can get him at the back end of the first round, it is
2:32a slam dunk for James Cook for me. I love it.
2:35You are getting access to a player that I think if he gets the pure run out of this season, he can
2:42compete with Bijon Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. And I don't think anybody's talking about him in that light.
2:47I understand why they're not. But just look at the parts and pieces that we need, guys.
2:52We need a running back that can handle heavy volume.
2:55Check. We got that. We need a running back that's in one of the best offenses in the league.
3:00Okay, well, Buffalo has been top six in points per game in red zone scoring attempts in each of the last three years.
3:07So check that box. And now in 2026, boys, I think we finally get the passing game ceiling unlocked for James Cook
3:13that gives him that top three upside. Because if you look at, and I know this has kind of been passed around,
3:20but I really want to tell people Pete Carmichael's arrival in Buffalo, I think sends good vibes for James Cook in the passing game.
3:27And people say, well, you could use that. And that's also a Sean Payton stat, but not in the two, three years
3:33of Pete Carmichael was still with the Saints without Sean Payton, still a top 10 in target share to the running back position in both of those seasons.
3:41You look at that juxtaposed with Buffalo over the last three years and running back target share, 12th, 16th, and 23rd.
3:47So James Cook, we're getting the rushing volume. You're getting the efficiency.
3:51You're getting exposure to one of the best offenses in the NFL.
3:54If we get the passing game ceiling for James Cook, he is hands down the best value in round one.
4:00Oh man, you just took it from me. I was ready to jump in and bring up the Pete Carmichael thing.
4:06And then not only did you say it, you actually went more in depth than I've heard most people talking about it.
4:13I think this one's a slam dunk and a great point you brought up.
4:17We actually got a comment on our show today about somebody being concerned about the fact that James Cook got so much work last year.
4:24And, you know, obviously he's on the bills. So they have that run through the playoffs and they get a little bit
4:30of extra work there at the end of the season.
4:33And he's done it year in and year out.
4:36And he's clearly a guy who can handle it.
4:39So I don't have the same worries about his efficiency as I would with a lot of other guys getting his level of work.
4:46Absolutely. And people talk about the size and stuff like that.
4:49Okay. James Cook is pretty much the exact same size as Jameer Gibbs.
4:53If you look at height and weight when they came out, I don't hear anybody worried about the volume piling up for
4:59Jameer Gibbs as the 101 in almost every fantasy draft.
5:02But yet we're using that or people are using that as a narrative to slight James Cook.
5:07Make it make sense, boys. Make it make sense.
5:09And we already have the evidence, too, that he can handle it.
5:13I mean, just last year, he led the league in rushing.
5:16The year before, he led the league in touchdowns.
5:19It's like you said, just the passing volume or the receiving work that's limited him.
5:23And Derek, as you were giving your rant there, I thought it was Mitch for a second because all I hear Mitch
5:30talk about with James Cook is this OC change and how he's going to start catching the ball.
5:35He's not wrong, Mello. He's not wrong. He's not wrong.
5:38I'm going to say I don't think Derek's wrong either.
5:41Maybe Mitch is listening to a lot of Derek.
5:43But listen, I hear it. I'm with you. And I'm drafting a lot of James Cook myself.
5:48If he's there at the 1-2 turn, he is one of my favorite targets.
5:52Love it. But moving on to one of my favorite targets at the 2-3 turn, one of my favorite values here in the second round is A.J.
6:00Brown, sometimes falling even into the third, but more often than not going toward the end of the second round.
6:06You would think with the way that people are talking about A.J.
6:09Brown that he was the wide receiver 30 last year.
6:12It's just the vibes are so negative. People act like he's washed up and he's a diva and the knee.
6:18And it's a lot of negative vibes. But he was the wide receiver 11 in PPR last year in terms of his season-long finish.
6:25And that was, like I said, with these negative vibes.
6:28And when he was on the Eagles, who were 27th in pass rate and had Jalen Hurts, who was really struggling at quarterback last year.
6:35Now he gets a new quarterback who's an elite deep ball thrower who somehow miraculously was first in both completion percentage and yards per attempt.
6:43Those two stats typically do not go together. And the Patriots will also undoubtedly be throwing the ball a lot more in
6:492026 when you look at their revamped receiver rim and you look at the fact that their schedule is much tougher.
6:55They won't be winning in blowouts. They won't be running the ball late in games as consistently as they were last year.
7:02So to me, this is the best situation A.J.
7:04Brown has had in a very long time. And he's already been very good for a very long time.
7:10He's finished as a wide receiver 1 in each of the four years since his rookie campaign that he played at least 14 games.
7:17Now he's going as a wide receiver 8, very end of the second round.
7:21I just love that value. I love this call so freaking much.
7:24I'm going to put you on the spot here, Melo.
7:27Where do you have A.J. Brown ranked right now amongst wide receivers?
7:31And give you a second to pull this up.
7:33I'm just going to tell you right now, bro.
7:36I got him at wide receiver 5. I'm all in on A.J.
7:39Brown. I think that for every point that you made with that entire run-through, I'm with you on all of that.
7:45And I think it's getting glossed over and people aren't realizing his touchdown upside.
7:50Going from a team that was 32nd in 10 zone passing rate to a Patriots team that was 15th with the addition,
7:56and it could be higher this year, with the addition of A.J.
7:59Brown and Romeo Dobbs, I think A.J. Brown, as long as assuming health, I think he sees a career high across the board.
8:06Targets, receptions, receiving yards, and, and boys, touchdowns. I love that.
8:09I'm a Patriots fan, so I double love that.
8:12I actually have him. I'm just speaking to a asshole here.
8:15Let's go, baby. Yeah, everything I said is just because I'm biased.
8:19No, I actually have him as my wide receiver 6, so you even have him a spot higher, and I love it.
8:25I don't blame you for that at all. I could not agree more on A.J.
8:29Brown, Melo. We've talked about this disastrous situation last year in Philadelphia.
8:33The whole Kevin Petula experiment. Still finishes the wide receiver 11.
8:36I am not buying into this doom and gloom from the first two days of training camp that everyone else is.
8:42I think A.J. Brown is going to be just fine in New England.
8:46Give me all that value if people are going to shade him and let him fall down the boards, which that's, dude, I saw it all on XS.
8:54I was like, oh, hey, he's not really separating in the crossing rep.
8:58Oh, he's dropping a pass. Okay. Whatever lies y'all want to tell yourselves is fine with me because I'm just going to draft more A.J.
9:05Brown, boys. This reminds me of when Jamar Chase couldn't catch a football if it didn't have the white stripes on it.
9:12I was told that he didn't have the ability, that that left his body when he left LSU.
9:17Yeah, I think he's been doing all right, though.
9:20It's like maybe it doesn't matter if there's stripes on the ball.
9:23Maybe he's just that good. What's up, guys? Real quick, you know we're always talking about the guys we love to draft
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10:09But now, back to the video. Exactly. Let's move on to round three, though, here.
10:13Let's talk about AJ Brown's former teammate, Devonta Smith.
10:16As it currently stands with the ADP right now, Malik Nabors is here in the third round, and I wanted to take him.
10:22But one of two things is going to happen.
10:25Either he is going to be ready, as it looks like he's going to be, and he's going to rise up the
10:31rankings way earlier than the third round, where there's no shot you could get him.
10:36Or he's not ready by the time week one comes around, in which case I don't want to draft him here.
10:42So that leaves us with Devonta Smith, who we don't need to belabor this.
10:46We've talked a ton about him here at the lineup.
10:49We saw him command a 35.1% target share in the last two seasons when AJ Brown wasn't on the field.
10:55And even in those two years, we saw him actually playing a lot more in the slot.
11:00He's been so much better when lined up out wide, and he's going to get that opportunity now.
11:05AJ Brown, like we just said, is in New England.
11:08They go and draft Makai Lemon, who's going to be taking a lot of those slot snaps.
11:13And so I expect to see Devonta Smith lined up outside way more, where he achieved a 2.95 yards per outrun last season, tied for third best behind.
11:21Another two decent receivers in Jackson Smith and Jigba and Puka Nakua.
11:24I love the call. I'm all in on Devonta Smith too.
11:28I think any of the stuff that goes out there about like, he can't be a true one is just narrative and
11:34BS, because any of the time AJ Brown has missed any time, his numbers are fantastic.
11:39So it's not based off of substance. It's just based off of bad vibes.
11:43A hundred percent. Right. And I think if there's two things I've heard against Devonta Smith, people building a case against him,
11:49it's one, the Eagles don't throw the ball a ton.
11:52And two, Makai Lemon is there, even if AJ Brown is gone.
11:56And to that, I'm like, true, fair. But the counterpoint to that is, they've always been low passing volume, and we've still
12:02seen both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith perform. And yes, Makai Lemon is there.
12:06But if we're projecting Devonta Smith to play more on the outside and play more of the, you know, quote unquote, AJ
12:12Brown role, we just talked about how good AJ Brown has been.
12:16Yeah. If that's Devonta Smith, he's going to smash it ADP.
12:19The only way I'm going to get concerned about Devonta Smith is if he starts reading inner excellence on the sideline.
12:25Then I'm worried about how things are going with Jalen Hurts.
12:28Or if he's stabbing the positivity rabbit. Yeah, if the positivity rabbit goes down, I'm out on Devonta Smith.
12:34That was such a weird time. Just for everybody to be kind of rewinding to go back.
12:39That was such a weird time on social media.
12:42I'm like, what? Do we have a, there's a positive, what is this, like a spirit animal?
12:46We're living in like a curb your enthusiasm skit.
12:49Yes, it felt like very much like a Larry David skit.
12:52It was very, very wild. But also to throw context on this, of the last two years without AJ Brown in the
12:59lineup, Devonta Smith, 32.9% target share, 2.65 yards per route run.
13:02He is that dude. He's that dude. So leading me or leading us, shall I say, because we're walking hand in hand through this into round four.
13:10And a guy that honestly, I'm putting him in the round four conversation because this is where we sit at ADP.
13:16I think when we're into the full throws of draft season and the heat of it and stuff right before week one,
13:22I think this guy is not going to be available in the fourth round.
13:26I think he's gonna be a third round pick.
13:29But right now, while you can get the value, please do on Colston Loveland, who is going to be, I think, a lead defining pick.
13:36I think you're getting a player and not having to pay the price tag of last year's Trey McBride or this year's
13:43Brock Bowers as a player that can compete with Brock Bowers for the tight end one overall mantle.
13:48And nobody's talking about it in that way. But I mean, proof is in the pudding, boys.
13:53Last year when we saw Callstone Loveland unleashed in a full-time role, and I get it like people are like, oh, it's such a small sample.
14:00Yeah, because Amon Ra breaking out in the back end of his rookie season and that small sample didn't repeat over the next year or years.
14:08Oh, wait, it did. Same thing with Rasheed Rice when he's been on the field.
14:12That can never repeat. Oh, but it did. And so on and so forth about numerous rookies that are incredibly talented breaking out.
14:19and everyone wants to say, but the small sample size, he can't do that over a full season until they do.
14:25And then you are weeping in your hands about not drafting him.
14:29And it's not going to be me, guys, because if Colston Loveland can have that type of production that he had in
14:35week 16 through 20 last year, he will break fantasy leagues based off of where you are drafting and the value that
14:41you are getting for a player during that stretch had a 25.6% target share.
14:46And I'm just everybody strap in. I'm going to throw a ton of numbers at you, but there's a reason why here at the end, 25.6% target share.
14:54He averaged 81.6 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, a 34% first reach here and 0.116 first downs per route run.
15:01So every single per route metric that I care about for tight ends at all in that sample size, Colston Loveland amongst,
15:07if you would have zoomed out and he said he did this for the entirety of the whole season amongst all tight
15:14ends last year with at least 20 targets, in that sample, zooming out, Colston Loveland would have ranked first, first, fourth, first, fourth, and second.
15:21It's pretty good. He even put that sample size up against 2025 Trey McBride.
15:25Colston Loveland in that sample was better than Trey McBride in 2025.
15:28And the tight end one du jour this year, Brock Bowers, put that sample for Colston Loveland up against 2024 Brock Bowers.
15:35He beats both of them in every single damn metric.
15:38If he gets this type of usage, guys, he is literally the best tight end value out there, period, bar none.
15:44Just end of conversation. I feel like a horse that's wearing blinders and on one side is Brock Bowers and the other
15:50one is Tucker Craft because I just haven't been able to stop drafting the two of them.
15:55But when you look at a guy who presents actually a truly elite upside that you get at a tight end in
16:02like the fourth round, and when I say truly elite upside, like we've talked about Tucker Craft being able to be the
16:08tight end one, but the guy that could actually separate and be this next Gronk or Travis Kelsey of decades to come,
16:14like we were just mentioning our last episode, Mello, like Colston Loveland fits that mold and you can't say that about a
16:21lot of other guys in this range. I'm afraid I'm going to be the person weeping in my hand because I'm part of the problem.
16:28I'm like so scared to click that button because we haven't seen it season one.
16:32Why? But I shouldn't, I'm just not as brave as you, Derek.
16:36This is why Derek Brown is one of the best in the business.
16:40But if you're waiting to see it, if you're waiting to see it, that's the part where people, you waited too long.
16:46No, you're 100% right. And I'm glad you brought up weeks 16 through 22 because something he doesn't benefit from is the
16:52fact that his, two of his best games were playoff games, which from a fantasy football perspective, people just kind of throw it out and they disregard it.
17:01But I mean, that actually matters from a real life perspective and it should matter from a fantasy perspective too if we're looking at the future outlook.
17:08When it mattered the most, when the Browns, when the Bears were playing in the playoffs, Colston Loveland had 25 targets across two games.
17:15If Pukenakua did that, I'd be like, damn, that's kind of crazy.
17:19Colston Loveland did it at the tight end position.
17:22So he absolutely has the same upside as those top guys.
17:25And you're right, the discount is really only there because we haven't seen it from a season, you know, start to finish perspective yet.
17:32But the upside is undeniably there. The other part about this is, and just to flip this on his head a little
17:38bit, one, he did this while Colcomit was also a part of the offense.
17:42So everybody that's making a pro-Colcomit conversation, I don't know what the hell you're doing.
17:47But number two, boys, just think about it this way.
17:50People want to press the brakes or pump the brakes on Colston Loveland in that small sample.
17:54Just in your mind's eye, tell me, if Luther Burton did that crap last year in week 16 through 20, where the
18:01hell would he be going in drafts? Please. People would be thinking about 1.0.
18:05Yeah, it'd be 1.0. 1.0. He would be zooming up the ranks and everyone would be like falling over themselves to be
18:11like, how high is too high to rank Luther Burton?
18:14But then people are like, but I don't know about Colston Loveland.
18:18Oh, really? Because if Luther Burton did this, you would literally crap your pants and be pushing people out of the way to draft him.
18:25But because it's a tight end and it's Colston Loveland and Colcomit's there, people are like, oh, I don't know.
18:31It's the HR meme. Fair. These pictures are the same, boys.
18:34It should elevate him even more because of positional scarcity.
18:37Yes. I will completely agree with you. I would take Colston Loveland at ADP over Luther Burton at ADP 100 times out of 100.
18:44Moving away from tight end though in round five, I'm going to be talking about David Montgomery as my favorite value.
18:50We actually talked about Demont the last time we had Derek on, but I'm going to do it again.
18:56You can't stop me. I'm going to keep talking about David Montgomery.
18:59You're a mad man. I just love this guy too much.
19:02He has finished over the last three years as the running back 17, 18, and 27 overall while playing with the football deity that is Jameer Gibbs.
19:10Now he gets an entire backfield to himself. I will not tolerate any Woody Marks propaganda.
19:15Throw that to the side. And he's on a run-heavy team with a good defense that can be running the ball a
19:21lot late, but he's being drafted as the 23rd running back off the board.
19:25That just does not make sense to me. You're going to get at worst a rock solid RB2 who has the upside to finish as a low-end RB1.
19:33It's just a no-brainer to be in the fifth round.
19:36How has he slipped further? I don't know. I couldn't agree more with all your points and for everybody that just wants
19:43to understand the fever dream run out of this, I just kindly point you back to Joe Mixon's 2024 season was the RB9 in fantasy points per game.
19:51Like, you don't have to squint hard to see the absolute ceiling outcome for David Montgomery and for your points, Mello, like,
19:57I just, the narratives about players versus the actuality of where they're at in their careers is hilarious because you go out
20:04on X or, you know, you go to the comment section on YouTube, everybody's like, oh, he's washed, he's old.
20:10Woody Marks to the moon. I'm like, dude, there's nothing about his profile that's washed.
20:14Like, we're discussing a player that was 12th in yards of the contact per attempt.
20:18He was 12th in first downs per route run on a per-touch basis.
20:22David Montgomery beat Woody Marks in every single category I care about.
20:26I can list them off, but I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna do that.
20:30I'm gonna save people time. This one's insane to me.
20:33It should be common sense. I don't understand the Woody Marks narrative, honestly.
20:36It's people holding on the priors, man. It's people that loved him as a rookie.
20:41He broke out and people are like, but you can't, you can't put that genie back in the bottle.
20:46Well, and the genie's kind of ugly and it's very inefficient.
20:49You could definitely shove that genie back in the bottle.
20:52Oh, here at the lineup, we were trashing on Woody Marks way before David Montgomery was traded to the Texans.
20:58Yeah. Yeah. I just, I don't see, this guy was the running back 26 last year playing next to Jameer Gibbs and
21:05now you swap Jameer Gibbs for Woody Marks and we've moved him up three spots.
21:09Like, make that make sense to me. But, but the Houston offensive line, but Woody Marks, I mean, don't you know, Mitch?
21:15I mean, come on, are you a ball knower?
21:18Hmm. It's ridiculous, man. I agree with everything here.
21:21Let's move on to round six. We just went from the oldest man of all time to one of the young, exciting
21:27wide receivers let's talk some Carnell Tate. Um, I absolutely love him going off the board here at the 67th pick, which
21:33that's one that I'm sure the young folks are going to love all those six, seven heads, but we just talked ad
21:40nauseum about how much we love this guy in our fancy blueprint episode.
21:44Favorite wide receiver prospect going in the draft, the insane number four overall draft capital on him.
21:49Now you attach him to a young ascending first overall pick from last year in Cam Ward.
21:53You introduce an offensive coordinator in Brian Dayball who loves to spam his number one receiver.
21:58I just, I love taking this shot. On a guy who's upside is absolutely ridiculous versus a lot of the other people in this range.
22:05And I looked back to last year we were drafting T-Mac around pick 56 as the wide receiver 25.
22:11He finished as the wide receiver 15. This is just way too cheap for Carnell Tate to me.
22:16We did this last year. I didn't do this.
22:19I will say the, the, the Royal we. People did this last year with Tedra McMillan and they said, but he can't do it.
22:26And he was too cheap throughout the entirety of draft season.
22:29I'll also point you back to a Brian Dayball favorite boys.
22:32People did this when Malik Neighbors, both of these guys crushed their ADP and then, but then people will still look you
22:39straight in the face and say, I'm out on Carnell Tate.
22:42I, I don't get it. I really don't. That Malik Neighbors year was so funny.
22:46Marvin Harrison Jr. And this is 50 pounds of muscle ago.
22:49He was going as the 16th overall pick in fantasy football drafts this year.
22:53They're that year, which just feels insane to me.
22:56Same man, but Adam Malik Neighbors and now I got to bring up his, his quarterback here, Jackson Dart, man.
23:02He's my favorite pick of the seventh round and it's all upside, man.
23:06It's upside for days. Like you look at when Jackson Dart took over as a starter for the Giants.
23:11Yeah, it was QB seven in fantasy points per game, but that also needs a lot more context.
23:16If you take out the outlier stinker game of week 16 versus Minnesota when he only scored one fantasy point, he had 13 freaking passing attempts.
23:24He had 33 passing yards. Take that damn game out of the sample.
23:28He averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game and just for everybody at home so they understand that was even better than Josh Allen last year.
23:35It would have made him the QB one in fantasy.
23:38So again, I don't want to be like, let's take out the good and take out the bad and then we can craft these narratives.
23:45I mean, I'm literally talking about an outlier game where the guy scored one freaking fantasy point.
23:50That's it. Take it out of the sample because it's an outlier and it's garbage.
23:55You take that out and if he reproduces any of this and I get all the worries about Matt Nagy and what
24:01have you and about this offense, he's gonna run.
24:04His floor, not his ceiling, is being priced into where he goes.
24:07He's an ascendant second year quarterback and if Malik Nabors starts out and he's not slow out the gate and I understand
24:14he probably is and we shall see. They added other players to this offense.
24:18The offensive line is probably going to be much improved from last year.
24:21I mean, Jackson Dart, you are getting a massively high floor player as at his floor because of how much he runs and will run is top 12.
24:30His ceiling is top three. I was taking Jackson Dart MVP bets back in May and so I don't think there's any issue I have with this one.
24:38Mello, you have been the Michael Scott snip snap on Jackson Dart so I need to know where you are with the Malik Nabors saga and everything.
24:46I'm getting back here. I've been in and out and in and out and even when I've been out it's been I
24:52mean, partially the Malik Nabors stuff but also partially where he's going where he's getting ranked.
24:57His ADP has fallen recently. I'm curious to see if it goes back up with the Malik Nabors news but with where
25:03his ADP sits currently I'm in for the exact reasons that Derek outlined for the upside.
25:08One of my favorite stats since 2015 so an 11 year sample Ricky quarterbacks who rushed for at least 400 yards go
25:14on to hit on their ADP in their second year every single time.
25:18The only guy who didn't do it in that 11 year sample was just last year Jaden Daniels and it was because
25:24he was hurt and he was getting drafted as the quarterback three and something I haven't mentioned about that staff if you
25:31remove Jaden Daniels from that population those same quarterbacks the worst any of them finished was Bo Nix as the quarterback seven
25:37last year exactly or I'd say that's probably the ceiling of where Jackson Darts getting drafted and depending on where you look
25:43he's getting drafted as later than the quarterback seven so from that lens that's the type of reason you take a guy
25:50like this he runs the ball so much he plays like he's willing to get into a car crash which maybe from
25:56an injury standpoint you don't like to see but he runs the ball a ton we saw it last year he gets
26:03hopefully Malik Nabors back who he didn't even have last year it's a total worthwhile shot on upside that's the other part
26:09that I love that you brought up here Mello is that he did all of that last year without Malik Nabors yeah
26:15he did all of that last year and there were various points where he didn't even have Darius Slayton like he's tossing
26:22to like wide receiver fives and sixes and Theo Johnson and backup tight ends Daniel Bellinger of the world and it's like
26:28he did all of everything he did last year with basically no pass catchers and I'm not in love with everybody outside
26:35of Malik Nabors and Isaiah Likely this year but we can all collectively say it's still a better group than he had
26:41at any point last year well he's throwing new as Mello calls him Odell Beckham senior because he's too old now to
26:48be a junior so that wide receiver room is looking pretty strong going into the year fair we'll see if he makes
26:54the team I do have another old receiver don't worry it's not Odell to talk about here in round eight it is
27:00Chris Godwin I keep bringing him up on the show too I'm getting just more excited about him too as we head
27:07deeper into the summer here he was the wide receiver one or two overall depending on the format you play in 2024
27:13prior to that ankle injury and it's like people don't care it's like people just throw it out that he was that
27:20good just two years ago and the Buccaneers gave him a massive contract after the injury which tells you they felt good
27:26about him long term they felt good about his outlook despite the rehab that they already knew he had to go through
27:32because he had already had this injury occur so that tells me I should feel pretty good as we head here into
27:392026 he's finally fully healthy I do love Emeka Ibuka as well we've talked about him on the show but I think
27:45they both can eat in the Zach Robinson offense with a gunslinger like Baker Mayfield at the helm who by the way
27:52threw for 4500 yards and 41 touchdowns the last time he was fully healthy for a season in 2024 and even in
27:582025 prior to him getting banged up he was awesome the first month of the season I think he was the MVP
28:04favorite so this is an environment I do like the pass catchers in general and to me Godwin as somebody who is
28:11has such a secure role in this offense he has such a safe floor at the 8-9 turn but not only a
28:17safe floor I think the ceiling is higher than people give him credit for and we saw it just a couple years
28:24ago I'm in in the other part about all this for anybody that has not watched quarterback like the new season of
28:30quarterback on Netflix I say this ad nauseum every single freaking year it is take injury reports of the grain of salt
28:36we don't know how healthy players are truly you're trying to read tea leaves don't listen to practice reports because nine times
28:43out of ten they're not accurate like in so many different ways if you watch the Netflix series right now like Baker
28:49Mayfield was torn apart hurt and much earlier in the season than I think a lot of people even if we're talking
28:56about it in that light of he wasn't healthy really at any point dude he was the only reason we didn't know
29:02how bad his damn arm was hurt last year and how bruised it was for anybody that's already watched this he was
29:08wearing a sleeve on it in practice and during the game so you couldn't see the fact that his throwing arm was
29:15black and blue even before he ended up on the freaking injury report I have I have a little bit more to
29:21say about Baker Mayfield as a teaser here but we'll wait a couple of rounds about that let's talk about a different
29:28quarterback quickly here though in round nine Mello you said that you feel the people are getting tired about listening to Chris
29:34Godwin and how great he is they've got to be tired of hearing me talk about Brock Purdy but give me Purdy
29:40at the pick 103 here I am gonna have to hit the Apple genius bar the next morning after my draft because
29:47I shattered my mouse pad clicking that button to make sure I get Baker Mayfield here in round nine this was last
29:53year's Brock Purdy I say Baker Mayfield yeah trying to get Brock Purdy who's last year's quarterback two in points per game
30:00in the last four seasons he's finished first in touchdown rate twice fourth another time now you give him Mike Evans who
30:06we've discussed last time with Derek as one of our favorite picks this year you add in the training camp buzz recipient
30:12of the year Dijon Stribbling and now you're getting Brock Purdy as the quarterback 12 off the board it just feels ludicrous
30:19to me and to be able to get a guy with that much upside this late it just lets you stack like
30:25these other positions and get so much depth maybe even go elite tight end grab a Brock Bowers grab yourself a Colson
30:32Loveland and then you can get a league winning guy at quarterback as the literal last quarterback one off the board nobody
30:38wants to give him respect for everybody at home listening QB 5 QB 10 QB 6 and fantasy points per game of
30:44the last three years yet still we sit he's QB 12 and ADP and you can get him as a QB 2
30:51in a lot of different spots so I'm absolutely with this call love it for from one guy that's getting slanderous hate
30:57and doesn't get enough respect then I'm going to go to a guy that's going up the boards and Jonathan Brooks as
31:04the round 10 pick here and I'm willing to chase him up the boards guys like I I've been screaming about Jonathan
31:10Brooks for weeks and weeks and weeks it's finally kind of catching up everybody's seeing that like the Jonathan Brooks is fully
31:17healthy Carolina is easing him in to a massive workload this year he is already fully recovered from that second ACL surgery
31:23he is past all of that but they are being wise and for a player that they are going to massively count
31:29on this year they're being wise with his early usage in camp and preseason they're going to treat him with kid gloves
31:36but I'm telling you man he is going to be the workhorse for the Carolina Panthers everything that we hope to see
31:42out of the second round pick for Carolina way back when is going to come to fruition this year and for be
31:49kind of rewind and for everybody to understand the type of talent that we're discussing with Jonathan Brooks in his final year
31:55in college 21st in yards after contact per attempt ninth in elusive rating and also 21st in yards per route run Chuba
32:01Hubbard was one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL last year on 130 plus carries he had zero explosive
32:08runs on on a per touch basis he was bottom five in every single metric he will have a role in this
32:14offense but Jonathan Brooks I think will be the preferred passing down back as well as he will be the workhorse by
32:21midseason at the latest if you are drafting him as an RB3 when it is all said and done and we flip
32:27over the cards boys I think by mid season you are going to be starting Jonathan Brooks as your strong RB2 in
32:33your lineups and you don't have to draft in there I agree with absolutely everything it is insane that you got 130
32:40carries and zero explosive runs Chuba Hubbard it is what it is the numbers don't lie man yeah people might run away
32:46from hate it the Chuba Hubbard hive can buzz at me all they freaking want to but the wrong we've been beating
32:53the Jonathan Brooks drum all summer long I'm actually mad that other people are beating it hard now too because I was
32:59so excited when he was like free now he's not free but he's still a discount because yeah like what what's his
33:05floor his floor is that he is the third down back and the change of pace back I mean that's his absolute
33:12worst case scenario floor and there are guys with similar profiles going in the 10th anyways like you're getting somebody who his
33:18floor is what you project for other guys going in that range but his ceiling is that of guys going in like
33:25the third or fourth round per real-time ADP on fantasypros.com which is tracking you know basically ADP is what it says in
33:31real time Jonathan Brooks is RB 36 his floor is an as an RB3 in that hand to handcuff like touchdown independent
33:37flex tier but again that's his floor absolutely none of the ceiling none of the like that's baking in all the risk
33:44that that's not equating for any of the upside for him to smash 100% one guy that I'm a little bit less
33:50excited about but I just cannot stop drafting in the 11th round is Jaden Higgins and it's interesting because if you ask
33:57me like my top like 10 players I'm most excited about ADP I don't know that I'd say Jaden Higgins but I
34:03can't stop drafting him like every fantasy pros mock draft I do I'm grabbing Jaden Higgins he keeps falling to the late
34:0911 sometimes even into the 12th and look I know his rookie year was not all sunshine and lollipops but he's a
34:166-4 receiver who ran a 4-4-7-40 and the Texans invested a 34th overall pick on him very close to a first round
34:22pick and down the stretch last year he was the clear number two receiver on the Houston Texans.
34:27He also had nine end zone targets last year six of which were caught for touchdowns so there's a ton of touchdown
34:34upside they like using him down by the goal line and I think a big part of maybe why people are a
34:40little bit scared of Higgins it's just like the vibe around the Texans right now people are clowning on CJ Stroud left
34:47and right mostly because of his putrid divisional round performance against the Patriots also because of his haircut I think that doesn't help the vibes for the Texans.
34:55Well that and also he looked like every single millennial junior high school kid way back in the day.
35:00Yes literal middle schooler. I mean it was just low hanging fruit everybody's like ah every millennial myself included we all watched
35:07that video and it's like dude that looks like me walking into seventh grade.
35:11No we literally all know somebody or multiple people we went to school with that reminded us you know that video reminded
35:17us of them the vibes just can't get any worse than they are for the Texans but it wasn't too long ago
35:24we were drafting this team's pass catchers in the first five or six rounds like I think it was three receivers in
35:30the first like five rounds of ADP a couple years ago which obviously was ridiculous and I am by no means saying
35:36Higgins should go even close to that high but in the 11th like the late 11th that seems like a discount to
35:43me as somebody who could very well have a big year to break out on an offense that I think has the
35:49potential to bounce back or at the very least outperform these low expectations from the overreacting masses.
35:54I'm totally with you on the Higgins call go ahead go ahead Mitch.
35:58No I was just gonna say I think he could keep dropping honestly I think there's a lot of tank Dell buzz
36:04coming out right now and tank Dell's healthier and more up to speed than people think but Mello we've mentioned it I
36:11just don't see tank Dell being as big of an issue for Jaden Higgins as people think like I think Jaden Higgins
36:17is so talented and he's gonna break out regardless of if tank Dell's there or not.
36:22Well in the big thing for tank Dell even if you want to make this a tank Dell slash jam a null
36:28conversation which all popped up as of recording this like he's got a finger injuries he's gonna miss some time guessing it's
36:35a broken finger the way that they're framing it but with Higgins we're all talking about him we're living in this world
36:41where I think the talking point that has just been brow beat upon everybody this offseason is how much 12 and 13 personnel is every team gonna run.
36:49Yeah the one thing I could tell you about Jaden Higgins they go to wide receiver sets he ain't coming off the
36:56field dude tank Dell will come off the field Javid all will come off field Jaden Higgins ain't coming off the field
37:02man and I think it kind of goes under the radar because he wasn't a full-time player last year even when he
37:08was on the field so weeks eight through 18 he wasn't like his route share he rarely ever had like a 70
37:1580 percent route share but during that stretch in weeks eight through 18 amongst 119 qualifying wide receivers just speaking to the
37:21talent and again going back to the profile of Higgins as an outside perimeter wide receiver amongst those 119 qualifying wide receivers
37:28Jaden Higgins was 38th in yards per route run with 1.93 and 25th best in route win rate amongst again 119 qualifying
37:34wide receivers dude has the chops we just need CJ Stroud to not look like he forgot how to play quarterback.
37:40Yeah like I think the talent's 100 percent there you even look at the rapport he started building with Stroud last year
37:47like he had by far the second most red zone targets on the team obviously Nico had the most but Higgins wasn't
37:53that far behind and then there was like a massive drop-off to Dalton Schultz I think that he's going to be way
37:59more involved in this offense than people think and like the upside in the 11th round is crazy to me for a
38:06guy that hasn't fully broken out yet. Agreed. I feel like there's always been a continual believe in second year breakout wide
38:12receivers but somehow that's getting lost in the sauce for Jaden Higgins.
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39:38Search terms and more at applecard.com Alright, let's move on to round 12.
39:41I alluded to it earlier but let's talk some Baker Mayfield and I know this is a little bit crazy because I
39:48literally just talked about Brock Purdy but let's say someone watched this video in your league and they got all hot and
39:54bothered by Brock Purdy and he went off the board early and now you're still punting at quarterback.
39:59This guy is such a screaming value right now.
40:02Like you were saying earlier, Derek, he dealt with a sprained MCL and PCL from week 2 on last season.
40:08If you watched quarterback, you saw how gruesome and rough that injury was.
40:12He was still the quarterback 12 last year. He was the quarterback 3 in 2024 and I love saying this but the
40:18dude is just an absolute junkyard dog. He is so fun to watch on your fantasy team and he is way, way,
40:24way too cheap as the quarterback 17. We talk about Chris Godwin.
40:28We talk about Emeka Ibuka. We even talk about Jalen McMillan and we're all so excited for these weapons and yet it
40:34doesn't seem like we're bringing Baker up. So instead of trying to get pieces of this pie, I'd rather get the Baker that made it.
40:42Cool. Well done. Bar. I have things to say, I mean, when you're on, you're on and that was very well done, man.
40:48I'm going to transition. I don't even have a bar to spit here.
40:52I don't know how to follow that up, but round 13 pick.
40:56Here we go. Stefan Diggs, man, and I'm taking the low hanging fruit about a guy that I know as soon as
41:02he signs, he will not be here. But to that point, if people are doing early redrafts at this point of the
41:08year, best ball, however you're consuming this content and the reason you're consuming it for, the other fact remains of when guys
41:15sign later into camp, the ADP never catches up with them.
41:18Yes. It happened last year for Keenan Allen. It never got high enough to where I ever got to a point of saying, you know what?
41:26I'm going to stop drafting Keenan Allen because he got way too pricey.
41:29The same freaking thing is going to happen with Stefan Diggs.
41:32And for everybody, again, we're playing the age game here of ages and then people are like, oh, but he's too old.
41:39He's probably washed. He's not that good. Coming off of an ACL last year, he was the wide receiver or 23 in fantasy points per game.
41:46He did that while being the Patriots Christian Watson.
41:49And I say that because he only had a 65.4% route share, which out of 109 qualifying wide receivers was ranked 62nd.
41:55So if he gets bumped up to a 70, an 80% route share wherever he lands, which my prediction right now is
42:02the commanders and he will be like a 7th, 8th round pick and he should be at this point, the people are
42:08not putting enough respect on Stefan Diggs's name amongst that same 109 qualifying wide receivers boys.
42:13He was 20th in receiving yards per game, 22nd in target per route run rate.
42:17He was 8th best in yards per route run and first downs per route run.
42:22So you're telling me right now for pennies on the dollar, I can get access to Stefan Diggs.
42:27I don't care if you draft him in the 13th round, the 12th, the 10th, the 9th, the 8th, the 7th, wherever
42:33you take him there, he's going to pay off as a value.
42:37So juxtapose like just put my Stefan Diggs rant at any point in this damn episode that you want to point to and it still fits.
42:44It's so funny. We talk about it on the show all the time.
42:48Why do we as a fantasy community price free agents as if they're never going to sign with a team?
42:54Because as soon as they do, even if it's like the team you wanted them to sign with least and it's the
43:00worst situation, they still go up in ADP without fail, without fail every single year.
43:05So it's like, why did we have them priced this low to begin with as if they weren't going to be on a team at all?
43:12Keenan Allen, I'm glad you brought up, is like the perfect example last year.
43:16His ADP started skyrocketing as soon as he signed with the Chargers.
43:20You wish you got him before, but even if you didn't, he still was a value.
43:25He still didn't get high enough and it's so funny we do that as a fantasy community.
43:30Stefan Diggs, the perfect example this year. I love what you said at the end too, Derek, and we've talked about this
43:36of like, yeah, of course the best value you're going to get right now is in best ball because you can get
43:42him before any of these prices rise. But once we're this late, even if he signs with the Commanders tomorrow, it's not
43:49going to go up as much as it should have and there's going to be all these question marks around it and
43:55you're going to get Stefan Diggs as an absolute steal.
43:58Well, like just tell me this guys, Stefan Diggs say he signs with the Commanders tomorrow.
44:03Where are you putting him at in ranks? Like I, I'm, I'm staring at real time ADP on fantasy pros right now
44:09and I'm like, okay, I'll put Stefan Diggs at wide receiver, comfortably at wide receiver 29 in the same conversation as Roma
44:16Dunze, Brian Thomas Jr., Carnell Tate, another guy we talked about here ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:20And fine, if you want to put Tate above him, but I think that's the right range, late 20s, early 30s, and
44:27that's making him a pick that's going in the late 70s or early 80s of drafts and that's the right spot.
44:33But I mean, you, y'all tell me, am I wrong?
44:36Is that too high? Am I just drinking too much of my own Kool-Aid here?
44:40No, our audience won't I'll put him above Marv easily and it's not even close.
44:45And the funny thing too, and I would absolutely too, but the funny thing is even if you disagree with that and
44:51you put him 20 spots lower, okay, he's still a value.
44:54He's still somebody you have to draft with where he's going.
44:57Like he's still going in like the ninth round, but I'm talking about him like he's like, he should be going when
45:04he signs, he should be going in the seventh round, but he, again, we're framing all of this.
45:09He won't get to the seventh round. I'm telling you right now, even prior to week one, he will still not be
45:15a seventh round pick regardless of everything. No, 100% value.
45:18In the 14th round though, I have somebody who I will like a whole lot more if Stefan Diggs does not sign with the commanders.
45:26I made the, I made the wet blanket case against Chig.
45:29I'm sorry. I apologize, Melo. It's okay because guess what?
45:32I still like Chig even if Stefan Diggs is in Washington.
45:35I like him more if Stefan Diggs is not there, but I do like him either way.
45:40And before I get deeper into my Chig analysis here, shout out Malik Willis who's also going in this range.
45:46We talked about him the last time we had Derek on the show as well.
45:50Honorable mention here. The reason I didn't go with him is because quarterback just feels so deep this year.
45:56We've already talked about so many of these late round quarterbacks that we like as well as Malik Willis whereas tight end gets gross.
46:03Like late tight end navigating who you want in these double digit rounds at tight end is really tough and Chig is someone Greg Diggs is good.
46:11He's rising up my board. Our G's. You can get him even cheaper than this.
46:15But Chig Okonkwo is somebody I especially really like obviously over a guy like Greg Dulcich or any of these other tight ends that are going later.
46:23Among tight ends with at least 50 targets last year, Chig was fourth in yards after the catch, third in contested catch rate, third in average separation.
46:31In other words, you can boil that down to he was good before the catch, he was good during the catch and
46:37he was good after the catch even if it didn't feel like it from a fantasy output perspective.
46:42Now he gets to play with Jaden Daniels and the same offense that made the ghost of Zach Ertz put up well
46:49above tight end, well above average tight end numbers.
46:51The only thing I've seen people point to when you bring that up is it's a new play caller in David Blatt
46:58when we haven't seen him call plays before. But he coached under Cliff Kingsbury on this very same staff.
47:03So theoretically, you would think it's going to be a very similar offense that they're going to feed the tight end.
47:09And for what it's worth, until a guy like Stefan Diggs signs there, there's a lack of pass catcher in Washington.
47:15Scary Terry's about it. So if Chig Okonkwo is going to be second in target share on this team, he's a screaming value.
47:22Yeah, I'm in on Okonkwo where he goes for all the points that you mentioned.
47:26And again, just like you alluded to, even if Stefan Diggs signs there, it's not like he's going to go higher or anything of that nature.
47:34He's still going to be a value. He's a massive value right now and we don't have a signing yet.
47:40So if anything, Stefan Diggs or Keenan Alton, pick your name of older wide receiver that signs with the commanders before week one.
47:47If anything, they're just going to bump him down the board and he's going to be an even better value.
47:52Absolutely. Totally. All right, let's get into round 15.
47:55Do you guys mind if I cheat here? I mean, it's y'all show.
47:59I think you're kind of writing the rules here, man.
48:02That's fair. Answer your own question. We're going to do a triple play here.
48:06I'm going to have you pick your poison between Antonio Williams, Elijah Surratt, and Dijon Stribling.
48:10And a huge reason why I'm saying pick your poison is because of this looming Stefan Diggs threat that we're talking about right now.
48:17But just to break it down the philosophy behind why I want to take a rookie receiver here in this last round, all bets are off.
48:25You're looking for upside and you're also looking for a guy that you can know their role in weeks one or two
48:31and if they're not good, you cut them. You don't want a roster-clogging guy or a handcuff that you're just going to
48:38hold in that roster spot, that bench spot, and they're not going to do anything for you but you're also going to stop yourself from signing someone.
48:46So in order of how I prefer these guys at the current moment, I'm targeting Antonio Williams first, then Dijon Stribling, and
48:52then Surratt simply because I think that's the order of likelihood that these guys have to take that wide receiver two spot on their respective teams.
49:00Antonio Williams is the clear favorite according to ADP at 176, but obviously we're talking right now about this looming Stefan Diggs
49:06threat and if that happens, that of course shakes everything up.
49:09So if that hasn't happened by draft day in August, it is absolutely wheels up and I'm 1000% going with Antonio Williams.
49:16That being said, if it does, I really do like these two other guys and I'm rising so, so high on Dijon
49:22Stribling who continues to be way too cheap. I want to say his ADP right now is still 210, which is ludicrous.
49:28Those were the best picks of every single round for fantasy football here in 2026.
49:33Before we get out of here, a massive thank you to Derek for being our first ever returning guest here at the lineup.
49:40Derek, as always, do you have anything left to plug before you get out of here?
49:44I'll give you a few shameless plugs before we close the door on this episode.
49:49Yeah, obviously, check out my work out at Fantasy Pros.
49:51The draft kit's live. We're, I mean, plugging away with a ton of freaking content.
49:56Right now, my perfect draft article is live, which in tandem with this show, you literally can watch this show and read
50:02my article or listen to this show however you consume content.
50:05Read my article. I walk through every round of a draft.
50:09I give you 80 plus players so that as well as my players to target, players to avoid.
50:14Things are more condensed if you just want my high end or like more condensed guys that I'm really, really going to be overweight on this year.
50:22And every year, my labor of love for everybody out there whether you're doing best ball drafts, or 14 team leagues, 16 team leagues, don't worry.
50:29I've got you. My top 200 will be live before we get into the midst of draft season.
50:35This week is really kind of crunched for me, but I'm shooting for the end of next week to have that live whenever preseason action kicks off.
50:42And I know people are going to be drafting teams as early as that.
50:46And it is literally what you think it is.
50:49It is 200 write-ups covering quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and defense and kicker.
50:54And the real thing that I wanted to do is provide people whether it's the perfect draft article or the top 200,
51:00if you want one thing, one thing to have up on a second screen while you're drafting all your freaking teams, whether
51:07it's best ball, shallow leagues, deep leagues, whatever, I got you covered.
51:10I'm so excited. Just talking about this right now, and we're like in August, like fancy football is so back.
51:16Before we get out of here, Melo, do you have anything left?
51:19I'm about to go run through a wall. Derek just got me so pumped for football, but besides that, I got nothing.
51:26We're so back, and we'll be back next episode.
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