0:00Let's get ready to win some fantasy championships. What's going on everybody?
0:04Welcome on to another episode of Press Coverage where we help you get an edge in fantasy football.
0:09I'm your host as always TJ Wengert and today we're talking about week 7 heading into week 8 and beyond.
0:16Things to take away from all the big games, all the games, all the biggest moves, things to help you get ready
0:23for the rest of the season win fantasy championships.
0:25Let's jump right into it with the Patriots and the Bears of course which is Thursday Night Football.
0:31And I'm a little bit concerned that A.J. Brown's role is going to dip down from where it was in his first two games with the Patriots.
0:39So he comes back from his injury in week 6, he has a 31.3% target share.
0:44The role looks great, the points did not come with it because he had four uncharacteristic drops and he had a really bad day.
0:52But like running all the routes, massive target share, like okay, the fantasy points are going to come.
0:58Then week 7, target share drops down to 19.4%.
1:00Now, I don't think it's going to stay that low for the rest of the season.
1:05But A.J. Brown, you know, doesn't quite look like himself and this is kind of going back to last season.
1:12We know that he's kind of had knee problems for a few years now that he's been dealing with and kind of
1:19working through and he's kind of just been always able to perform regardless.
1:23But then at the end of last season, you know, there's some real questions about like how much the injuries were hurting
1:29him and how much it was like an effort thing because he seemed to be distraught and not happy with the Eagles.
1:36You know, led to, you know, him eventually leaving them.
1:39But also then during the offseason, like we knew that the Rams were in on A.J.
1:45Brown and they decided not to make a move because they were worried about the knees.
1:50So would it be surprising if A.J. Brown is actually kind of now on the downturn of his career to the point
1:56where like he's not really going to be useful for fantasy?
2:00It's possible. Like, it would not surprise me if that's the case.
2:04I'm still somewhat encouraged because Drake May is playing so well and there are targets to be had in the offense and A.J.
2:11Brown can earn them. But I am a little bit concerned.
2:14We're not going to get the A.J. Brown we thought we were drafting.
2:18So right now for me, he's more of a wide receiver to like low end wide receiver to until I can actually
2:25see something different than what he's put on tape so far this season.
2:29Next is the Steelers versus the Saints. And Jawan Johnson's time in the sun is over pretty clearly, honestly.
2:35So the last three weeks, you know, he started off great.
2:39Things were looking great kind of building off the last season.
2:42But the last three weeks, just 59.2% of snaps.
2:45He's still run only 59% of the routes. He has a 7.5% target chart during that time.
2:50He has five total catches in those three weeks.
2:53And this is all before Jordan Tyson gets back, which it seems like that could be soon.
2:58So what's really going to be on the table for Jawan Johnson?
3:02They focused more, the Saints have focused more on needing their tight ends to block with some issues they're having with their offensive line.
3:10And that's not something Jawan Johnson does. So he's getting a touch squeeze on his snaps.
3:15Targets aren't coming because of it. I don't see how that changes anytime soon.
3:19If you're still holding on to Jawan Johnson, you can stop.
3:22Next is the Browns versus the Titans. And we finally got the KC Concepcion breakout game.
3:27KC Concepcion has actually had a pretty darn good role for the Browns the entire season.
3:32Has gotten a lot of usage in the offense.
3:35The problem is him and Deshaun Watson had a problem connecting off it.
3:39Just to be frank, Deshaun Watson's accuracy has been really bad this season.
3:43And it's been really bad specifically towards KC Concepcion.
3:46A lot of these timing routes across the middle of the field or even some of these nice easy bubble screen type
3:53of stuff like Watson hasn't been that accurate on.
3:56But this game, it finally came together for him.
3:59KC Concepcion had a huge game. 10 targets, 8 catches, 129 yards.
4:02Also got 3 more carries. 23 yards, over 20 fancy points on the day.
4:07Love to see it. Now for the season, 79.9% of the snaps.
4:1184.2% of the routes. 23.2% target share. He's a really talented player.
4:14He's got a really good role. Like, I would expect him to keep building on this moving forward.
4:20In PPR leagues, 12-team PPR leagues, start 3-odd receivers.
4:23I don't see how he could be on benches anymore when it comes time to set your starting lineup.
4:29I think he has to be in starting lineups in PPR.
4:32Half PPR drops him down a little bit just because I do think his touchdown equity is a little small in the Browns offense.
4:40But I think he's going to be a PPR machine for them.
4:43Really excited for what he can do down the stretch of the season.
4:48Bengals versus the Ravens. I have to note, Chase Brown's role is still really good.
4:52Like, I know there's a lot of doom and gloom right now for Chase Brown.
4:57The fancy points are not there at all here.
5:00Right now he's averaging 12.5 PPR points per game, which is nowhere near what we need him to be for the draft
5:07capital we used on him in our drafts. 12.5 PPR points per game is not absolutely killing you, but like you're in
5:14no way happy with Chase Brown on your team right now.
5:17But the role is still good. On the season, he's playing 71.1% of the snaps.
5:22He has 72.3% of the backfield opportunities. He has a 13.7% target share.
5:26You can't ask for a better role than that for your running back.
5:30So I think the fancy points are going to come.
5:33We're on like the bad side of variance. It's been on the bad side of variance for like seven weeks, you know,
5:40but all the more reason why that can come back around.
5:43I think it's going to. We may not get, you know, the full draft price we paid for him.
5:49You second round value from Chase Brown. Just based on this, like, I mean, over the course of the entire season, you
5:56are not because of how bad the beginning was.
5:59But for the rest of the season, I think he can at least get close to that.
6:04If some of this variance gets back on his side, he starts to score a few touchdowns.
6:10Next is the Colts versus the Vikings. And I want to talk about Jordan Mason returning in this game, played 64.4% of
6:16the snaps, got 63.63% of the backfield opportunities. Worth noting, Aaron Jones dealing with a knee injury, did not play the entire game.
6:24But this is also just kind of going off of what they started with in the season.
6:29Like, this is not a surprise if Jordan Mason kind of taking a little bit more of the backfield in this split.
6:36He had 15 carries, 68 yards, got two targets to not catch either of them.
6:41But obviously that's not a very good day for fantasy, but the role is decent.
6:45I do want to note though here, it's funny that they played the Colts, but a lot of Jonathan Taylor trade rumors swirling around.
6:53Vikings would be a pretty good location for Jonathan Taylor to go.
6:56And it would make sense for the Vikings to make a trade like that.
7:01Like they're 6-0. They could use a little more firepower on offense, especially in their run game, especially because they're run first team, run first offense this season.
7:10So I think Jonathan Taylor makes some sense there.
7:12If the move doesn't happen, Jordan Mason's a low on RB2 for me moving forward, even in PPR leagues, because this is a run first team.
7:21I expect him to get plenty of carries and they'll get in red zone enough that he's going to have enough scoring opportunities.
7:28Next is the Dolphins versus the Jets. And Omar Cooper Jr.
7:31does it again. So he comes back from injury last week and has this big game.
7:36And he repeats it this week, even with Adonai Mitchell back.
7:40His role can grow from here. And I think it will based on his performances.
7:44He's at 64.4% of the snaps in week seven, 69.7% of the routes.
7:48He had a 16.7% target share. He had five targets, caught him all 115 yards and a touchdown, 22.5 PPR points.
7:55It's a small sample, but it's like so very obvious that he is very talented.
8:00Pass catcher. I talked about this last week. He's good downfield.
8:03He's good with the ball in his hands. He does a lot of things that offenses want.
8:08He's just a really talented player. So I would expect this to continue.
8:12I think Adonai Mitchell is back to being, you know, like he's going to, he's going to play some snaps because he's
8:19probably the best they have at beating press coverage.
8:22So he's going to play X, but he's, I think he's gonna be more there as closer to a sacrificial X.
8:29Now that Omar Cooper has come in and really shown what he can do.
8:33I think Omar Cooper, like Casey Concepcion top 36 wide receiver rest of the season, except he's got a little bit more touchdown equity to him.
8:41In my opinion, a little bit less PPR equity to him.
8:45So half PPR, like I prefer, uh, Omar Cooper jr, but full PPR, I prefer Casey Concepcion.
8:50Next game is the giants versus the Texans. We got our first full game with JJ McCarthy as the giant starter, and
8:57he played a really good game against the Texans.
9:00Now the Texans defense is not what it was last year, but this is still a Texas defense with a lot of
9:07talent on it and can give quarterbacks a hard time.
9:10But JJ McCarthy just really played well. He had a 71.4% completion percentage.
9:14You saw him hitting these throws that frankly, not a lot of QBs can hit.
9:19Uh, he averaged nine yards per attempt in the game.
9:22Uh, and I think best of all is that he fed and leak neighbors and help leak neighbors have a great game as well.
9:29Neighbors had nine targets, seven catches, 111 yards. Neighbors had a 32.1% target share.
9:34We'd love to see that if you've gotten like neighbors on your team.
9:38Um, I had some concern even after JJ McCarthy's big fourth quarter, a couple of weeks ago, that would he be able
9:44to hold up a number one wide receiver like Malik neighbors?
9:48Cause he didn't for Justin Jefferson. Now, JJ McCarthy, last year at the end of the year did put together a string
9:55of some positive games that maybe really should have made these kinds of performances, not too much of a surprise, but even
10:02then, Justin Jefferson wasn't quite getting there for fantasy.
10:05Now, this type of game Malik neighbors, is it going to happen every week?
10:09I don't know, but I have faith in Malik neighbors.
10:12And I'm not like moving them down my rankings at all because JJ McCarthy is there.
10:17Like I'm keeping Malik neighbors up there as a top wide receiver in fantasy and JJ McCarthy looks good.
10:23We're talking about a player who you could probably start streaming in fantasy because JJ McCarthy is athletic and is willing to run as well.
10:31So it's possible we can get some of that in there too, but we're going to take a quick second to hear about the player rankings.
10:39So when we come back, I'll get through the rest of the games.
10:43You know, I get asked is AI ruining fantasy sports?
10:46And the answer is absolutely not. We've had consensus rankings available for a long time, but people subscribe to the player rankings
10:53at playerprofiler.com for super flex, tight end premium, best ball, even like offensive line rankings.
10:58Of course, your rookie rankings, your dynasty rankings, those are all available in the ranking service for playerprofiler.com password protected.
11:04So the bots can't get to it and you can maintain your edge and use code podfather for $5 off.
11:10Woo. Woo. It's a good deal. Back here on press coverage, talking about week seven, heading into week eight and beyond.
11:17If you haven't liked and subscribed yet, please do so.
11:20If you have haven't left a comment yet, do that too.
11:23Let me know what your biggest newsworthy item from week seven was or a projection moving forward.
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11:32Also right now, the all in package on playerprofiler.com $100 off.
11:36If you use the code boo. So check it out.
11:39Now let's get back to these games. The next game is the 49ers versus the Falcons.
11:44Kyle Pitts has scored a touchdown in three straight games.
11:47Touchdowns are a little bit unreliable, but it would be too big of a surprise if they're utilizing him now just more
11:54in the red zone and found the way that like, that's the way they can really utilize Kyle Pitts in this offense.
12:01But really it's more just that like Kyle Pitts getting back on track with Michael Penix and in this offense, whereas the early season started really rough.
12:09He's starting to get there. The usage, the target share, all that.
12:13It's still kind of mediocre for our tight ends.
12:16We want to see that grow. So Kyle Pitts is not an automatic starting tight end for me yet, but he is on the radar streaming tight end.
12:25If you're a team without one of these top tight ends and you're kind of playing a back and forth with tight
12:32ends, I wouldn't mind rostering him and another playing the matchups and seeing if Kyle Pitts can continue to grow into more in this offense.
12:39We've seen him be able to put up big performances in the past.
12:43It can happen again, especially with Michael Penix now leading this team and looking really good doing it.
12:49Next to the Buccaneers and the Panthers, where Baker Mayfield got back, was really hoping to see how Baker Mayfield was going
12:56to look with this dislocated thumb he's coming back from.
12:59He's like wearing a weird glove with like a steel plate in it, I believe to help like stabilize it and make
13:06sure like it doesn't get hurt further. And he's actually able to play.
13:10And we didn't really get to see that because the Buccaneers played a really weird script against the Panthers, got up on
13:17them really early, and Baker only attempted 11 passes in the entire game.
13:21They basically ran the ball down their throats, their first drive, scored a touchdown.
13:25Panthers came back. They ended up giving up a defensive touchdown to the Buccaneers, fell behind, turned the ball over.
13:32Baker never really had to throw. So unfortunately, we don't have a lot of information on what Baker's going to look like
13:39when he really has to drop back and pass.
13:41Uh, I'm cautiously optimistic because Baker is a dude who's played through a lot of injuries in the past.
13:47Doesn't always work out, but Baker's really tough. He's got decent enough weapons around him in the Buccaneers that maybe he's still
13:54going to be a viable QB2 in Superflex leagues.
13:57But I think that is where the expectation should be is like a, like a positive expectations.
14:02Like if he's a viable QB2 in Superflex, I think we're good with that outcome.
14:07Because again, this dislocated thumb on his throwing hand, and he's coming back from with this weird glove.
14:13Like, I, I am a little bit worried that they could go south pretty easily.
14:17So I don't want to get my hopes up too high for, for Baker.
14:22And unfortunately, we also don't get too much information of like, is he still going to be able to support his weapons?
14:29So that's, that's probably what we're looking for because that's the pass catcher we care about right now.
14:34Is he still going to be able to feed Egbuka and help him to a nice fancy finish?
14:40Next game is the Cardinals versus the Broncos. And looks like Jonah Coleman could be taking over in this Broncos backfield.
14:46So he got his chance in week two with some injuries to the backfield.
14:51Played pretty well, but then it came out after the game that he suffered an injury on like his first game.
14:57Kerry and played through has to go to the IR.
15:01He comes back this week. I mean, I expect him to be worked in a little bit slowly.
15:06Not the case. He actually led the Broncos backfield in snaps and in opportunities.
15:11He had 50% of the opportunities, 49.2% of snaps, which as you can see, still not that great because it was still a three headed monster.
15:19The hope is at this point, and I could see it going this way, is that they consolidate the backfield really more
15:26to just Jonah Coleman and RJ Harvey. JK Dobbins, I love you.
15:29All time. What if this player never got all those injuries, but he's just really not performing this year.
15:35He does not look good. Sean Payton has some allegiance to him, obviously, and they brought him back on a decent contract,
15:42but if he's not getting it done, you got to move on from it.
15:46I think this could get whittled down to Jonah Coleman and RJ Harvey, more or less doing a 50-50 split between them.
15:53They do different things. I think they complement each other well.
15:57They can both help in different ways and in some of the same ways, which makes the offense be able to throw the defense off.
16:05So, I'm really excited for Jonah Coleman in this offense.
16:08Probably still on a lot of rosters, because if your league had IR spots, he's probably placed in the IR.
16:14If he was still in their free agency, I hope you got him.
16:18This episode normally comes out after free agency happens, at least the first run of waivers.
16:23But, Jonah Coleman has to be rostered everywhere right now.
16:26Next game is the Packers versus the Lions. We got Josh Jacobs back in this game.
16:31And he came back and more or less just took over the backfield.
16:35He only played 52.2% of snaps, but he had 75% of the backfield opportunities.
16:40So, I've talked about this a lot. A lot of teams are doing this.
16:44I really love it where, when they bring back a player from timeout, they're monitoring their snaps, but not their opportunities.
16:51So, we still got a lot of Josh Jacobs opportunities, but they didn't overwork him by making sure they kept his actual snaps down.
16:58Now, as a runner, it wasn't good. A lot of that, though, is the Packers offensive line.
17:03They have not been able to run the ball at all this season.
17:08It's very clear the offensive line is not good.
17:10It's not getting a lot of room for the running backs.
17:14So, he's 11 with 36 on the ground, but as a pass catcher, seven targets, five catches, 55 yards, and a touchdown, and he dropped another touchdown.
17:22So, 20.1 PPR points on the day, a very good day for him.
17:26He's coming back to a high-powered offense that's going to be passing a lot.
17:31In this game, the Packers still kept a really high neutral pass rate, I believe 71%, showing that even though they got
17:38Josh Jacobs back, this is going to be a pass-first team.
17:41And frankly, that's even better for Josh Jacobs if you drafted him, because he does get used in the pass game, evidenced by this.
17:49for our running backs. So, you'll take this kind of performance if you've got Josh Jacobs on your roster.
17:54To me, Josh Jacobs right now, mid-RB2, mid-to-high RB2 moving forward.
17:58I think he looked mostly like he did last year, which is still a slightly diminished version of himself, but it's still
18:05a good running back and one that can handle a lot of opportunities.
18:09So, if you drafted Josh Jacobs, fought through the off-the-field issues, you've now got a really good asset on your team.
18:15Next is the Rams versus the Raiders. And, Trey Tucker's really becoming more of a consistent fantasy player than he ever has in the past.
18:23He has at least four catches every week since week two.
18:27And, in that time, he has three weeks of at least 20 PPR points.
18:31There's going to be some variance to his scoring.
18:34It's the nature of his player archetype. He's definitely a down-the-field receiver more than anything.
18:39So, more or less depends on if him and Kirk Cousins can hit on deep shot in that game to really, like, boost his fantasy points.
18:47But, he's not at nothing like he was in the past week to week.
18:51He's actually viable just in your flex because he's getting enough volume as their, I mean, I'm going to put in quotations
18:58wide receiver one because their wide receiver one is actually Brock Bowers.
19:02But, like, of the wide receivers, it's clearly him and no one else.
19:06So, yeah, you can actually flex Trey Tucker each and every week if you want.
19:11Next is the Chiefs versus the Seahawks where the Seahawks were able to hold down Kenneth Walker in his revenge game.
19:17And, I know that there's going to be some people out there who look at this and say, like, oh yeah, like,
19:24if you can get to Kenneth Walker and just, like, crowd the line and stuff him, like, the Chiefs offense goes to
19:31crap and they can't do anything and you can actually stop Kenneth Walker.
19:35And, I just want to say, like, do not take that away from this because it's, this lesson is really just about how good Seattle's defense is.
19:43They are one of, if not the only team in the NFL who can consistently stop the run without putting extra people in the box.
19:51And, they did that to Kenneth Walker because of how good that defense is.
19:56If anything from this game you should be taking away is that, and we kind of already knew this, like, the Seahawks
20:02are going to dominate a lot of offenses and they're going to shut down a lot of offenses.
20:08Do not worry about Kenneth Walker. I wouldn't be worried at all moving forward.
20:12Seahawks might be the only team in the NFL who can do this to the Chiefs.
20:17Last game of the week was the Cowboys versus the Eagles and we finally got Mekhi Lemon producing in a big way.
20:24He also had a really nice role. Now, did it take a lot of injuries around him for it to happen?
20:31Yes, it absolutely did. but, it's still good to see, as I've said many times before on this show and in the
20:38past, games like this help build the confidence of a player and I think that truly means something in a player development.
20:45Just playing with confidence makes you be able to make your moves with more assertiveness, you feel more comfortable, you're able to
20:52do the things that you've been thinking about, you don't second guess yourself, like, Mekhi Lemon can build off this performance and
20:58become a better player even when Devonta Smith gets back, even when Dontavian Wicks starts playing again, like, this is a really
21:05good performance of Mekhi Lemon to help him build off of into the rest of the season.
21:11In this game, played 90.9% of the snaps, 92.1% of the routes, had a 22.9% target share, got eight targets, seven catches,
21:1867 yards, one touchdown, 19.7 PPR points. I also want to note with Tanner McKeith, back there for the Eagles at quarterback,
21:24this team is going to pass a lot more.
21:27They passed over 40 times two weeks ago, passed for 37 times this game, like, there's going to be plenty of pass
21:34attempts for these pass catchers to work off of in Mekhi Lemon.
21:38Depending on who's out for this coming week, is at least in flex category right now, and we can see that continue
21:45to build throughout the rest of the season. But that's going to do it for this episode of Press Coverage.
21:51I appreciate all of you out there. If you'd like to follow me on Twitter, you can do so at YB underscore FF.
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