The Dominator - Biggest 2026 Fantasy Football Values & Busts with Scott Pianowski
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 29 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 9, 2026
Published
Sun, August 9, 2026
52
Player insights
44
Players mentioned
Topics
Blake CorumKyren WilliamsGeorge KittleKeaton MitchellMalik NabersSean TuckerAaron JonesAaron RodgersAJ BarnerAmon-Ra St. BrownBrock PurdyCarson WentzChristian McCaffreyColston Loveland
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeBust122:12
Scott Pianowski is fading Aaron Jones, noting that he is getting older, losing steam, and cannot be trusted to stay healthy.
Insight pageAaron Rodgers
NegativeBust51:52
Scott Pianowski is fading Aaron Rodgers, noting that his game has evolved to prioritize short, safe passes over hero-ball, which limits his fantasy upside.
Insight pageAJ Barner
PositiveSleeper30:03
Scott Pianowski identifies AJ Barner as a sneaky late-round tight end dart throw with touchdown upside, noting his efficiency on limited touches last season.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveValue28:44
Scott Pianowski views Amon-Ra St. Brown as a high-floor first-round pick who is slightly underrated. He prefers St. Brown's situation, including the indoor schedule and quarterback play, over JSN's.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveBreakout0:19
Scott Pianowski is high on Blake Corum, noting his ability to carve out a larger role with the Rams last year, and prefers him over Kyren Williams in draft scenarios.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout23:56
Scott Pianowski is high on Blake Corum, noting his strong second-half performance last year. Pianowski projects that if Corum maintains his pace from when he received double-digit touches, he is flex-worthy with significant upside if he overtakes Williams or if Williams misses time.
Insight pageNegativeValue41:24
Scott Pianowski identifies Blake Corum as the clear handcuff to Kyren Williams, but warns that his high ADP makes it impractical to draft him alongside Williams.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
NegativeProjection0:14
Scott Pianowski has moved Brock Purdy down his rankings due to concerns about the 49ers' aging roster and the potential for an injury-plagued season, despite previously viewing him as a solid quarterback option.
Insight pageCarson Wentz
NegativeDepth Chart113:41
Scott Pianowski notes that Carson Wentz is currently third on the Vikings' depth chart but suggests he could potentially provide a 'Joe Flacco-style' veteran spark if the primary options fail. Pianowski is willing to give him a chance given his past MVP-level performance.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection0:14
Scott Pianowski notes that Christian McCaffrey's efficiency is trending downward and expresses concern regarding his age, leading to a more cautious stance on the player despite acknowledging his high usage potential.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper44:55
Scott Pianowski expresses interest in Colston Loveland as a late-round tight end target, provided he is available at a reasonable price.
Insight pageDavante Adams
NegativeProjection26:16
Scott Pianowski is slightly negative on Davante Adams, citing his age (34) and the potential for attrition or regression. While acknowledging Adams' talent, Pianowski prefers to avoid the risk of a decline.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeBust52:24
Scott Pianowski views D.K. Metcalf as a high-variance player who can be frustrating due to inconsistent effort and emotional volatility, making him less desirable than Pittman.
Insight pageDrew Lock
NegativeBust99:07
Scott Pianowski expresses significant concern about Drew Lock, noting a 'recklessness' to his game, a lack of passing skill, and a fear that he will get injured. Pianowski also highlights the lack of chemistry between Lock and Malik Nabers from last season.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury0:14
Scott Pianowski is nervous about George Kittle's status and the overall health of the 49ers offense, leading him to step away from drafting the veteran tight end.
Insight pageNegativeBust41:54
Scott Pianowski is avoiding George Kittle in drafts due to injury concerns and the depth of the tight end position, preferring to look at other options in lower tiers.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeProjection107:02
Scott Pianowski is skeptical that J.J. McCarthy can become a quality quarterback, noting that the Vikings' coaching staff seems to have recognized his limitations. While he acknowledges the possibility of McCarthy getting a chance, he views the odds of him succeeding as low.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveValue56:06
Scott Pianowski strongly advocates for J.K. Dobbins, calling his current ADP behind R.J. Harvey 'comically wrong' and identifying him as a clear lead back who provides necessary balance for zero-RB or hero-RB builds.
Insight pageJake Tonges
PositiveSleeper0:14
Scott Pianowski suggests Jake Tonges could be a sleeper early in the season as a potential fill-in for George Kittle, noting he was a nice player last year.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveProjection30:44
Scott Pianowski slightly prefers Jared Goff over Matthew Stafford for his age and the Lions' indoor-heavy schedule, though he emphasizes that it is a close call and he would balance exposures.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeProjection28:44
Scott Pianowski acknowledges JSN's talent but expresses caution regarding his floor compared to Amon-Ra St. Brown. He notes that the Seahawks' offense may not need to pass as frequently as the Lions due to their strong defense.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeBust59:50
Scott Pianowski is nervous about drafting Jayden Daniels, citing a reckless playstyle that increases injury risk and concerns about his development as a passer.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveValue52:05
Scott Pianowski views Jalen Warren as a solid value in the Steelers' backfield, noting that he is likely to benefit from Aaron Rodgers' tendency to dump the ball off to his running backs.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeValue32:33
Scott Pianowski questions the value of Joe Burrow compared to Dak Prescott, noting that their team setups—dynamic receivers and poor defenses—are very similar, making Prescott the better value.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveSleeper122:09
Scott Pianowski is high on Jordan Mason, believing the team is tailoring their running game to fit his skill set. He views Mason as a strong option, especially given the team's potential to salt away leads with a strong defense.
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue32:14
Scott Pianowski states he will not be drafting Josh Allen, as he is avoiding the top-tier quarterbacks in favor of later-round value.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection117:00
Scott Pianowski remains confident in Justin Jefferson's talent, viewing him as 'quarterback-proof' despite the Vikings' unstable quarterback situation. While he is hesitant to draft him at his current first-round price, he acknowledges Jefferson's potential to be a league winner.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
NegativeUsage40:00
Scott Pianowski questions the potential backfield distribution in Baltimore if Justice Hill and Derrick Henry were to miss time, noting uncertainty regarding how much work would fall to Keaton Mitchell versus Kimani Vidal.
Insight pageNegativeDepth Chart40:05
Scott Pianowski questions the backfield hierarchy in Baltimore if Derrick Henry were to get injured, noting uncertainty regarding the split between Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveValue49:51
Scott Pianowski is a long-time supporter of Kenneth Gainwell, describing him as a 'winning football player' and a James White-style pass-catching back who provides value on third downs.
Insight pageKimani Vidal
NegativeUsage40:00
Scott Pianowski highlights the ambiguity of the Ravens' backup running back situation, questioning how much volume Kimani Vidal would command if the primary starters were sidelined.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection107:05
Scott Pianowski is losing confidence in Kyler Murray, citing concerns about his height, his inability to see middle-of-the-field throws, and his injury history. Pianowski believes the odds of Murray playing 17 games are low and is skeptical of his fit in the Vikings' offense.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeValue0:19
Scott Pianowski does not dislike Kyren Williams but is less likely to draft him because he is prioritizing Blake Corum in his draft strategy.
Insight pageNegativeValue22:26
Scott Pianowski finds it difficult to draft Kyren Williams at his current ADP due to the emergence of Blake Corum, noting that Williams' scoring has historically been heavily dependent on touchdowns.
Insight pageNegativeValue41:24
Scott Pianowski notes that while Blake Corum is the clear handcuff for Kyren Williams, Williams' high draft cost makes it difficult to roster both players on the same team.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveValue101:55
Scott Pianowski is a strong proponent of Ladd McConkey, pointing to his dynamic performance in the second half of his rookie season where he played at a 1,500-yard pace. Despite McConkey becoming a polarizing player in drafts, Pianowski considers him fairly priced and a key target.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeValue32:21
Scott Pianowski confirms he will not be drafting Lamar Jackson this season.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeBust60:15
Scott Pianowski identifies Malik Nabers as the player he is most actively fading among the top three rounds of fantasy drafts.
Insight pageNegativeBust99:15
Scott Pianowski is fading Malik Nabers in the first two or three rounds, citing concerns about his downside and the overall uncertainty surrounding the Giants' quarterback situation, specifically noting that Nabers and Drew Lock hardly played together last year.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection24:29
Scott Pianowski is 'yellow light' on Matthew Stafford, viewing him as an inexpensive backup option rather than a primary target. He notes concerns regarding Stafford's age (38) and the potential for the Rams' offense to regress with a better defense.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveValue52:17
Scott Pianowski prefers Michael Pittman Jr. over D.K. Metcalf, believing Pittman's role fits better with Aaron Rodgers' current tendency to throw short, high-volume passes.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeValue0:14
Scott Pianowski likes Mike Evans at his current draft cost but admits he lacked the stomach to draft him in a recent salary cap draft when the price exceeded market expectations.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection25:16
Scott Pianowski considers Puka Nacua a 'generational exception' to the rule that impactful rookie receivers aren't found on waivers. While Pianowski is 'yellow light' due to concerns about Nacua's physical playing style and injury history, he still prefers him over JSN and Amon-Ra St. Brown in drafts.
Insight pageRico Dowdle
PositiveValue52:05
Scott Pianowski considers Rico Dowdle a decent value at his current cost, noting that he will be involved in the Steelers' offense as a pass-catcher.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeBust57:50
Scott Pianowski is skeptical of R.J. Harvey, noting that he was inefficient last year and that the team was disappointed in his decision-making and pass protection.
Insight pageRyan Flournoy
PositiveSleeper0:18
Scott Pianowski identifies Ryan Flournoy as a potential star waiting for an opportunity to play.
Insight pageSean Tucker
PositiveSleeper0:18
Scott Pianowski believes Sean Tucker could be great if he gets an opportunity to play, though he is currently the third running back in Tampa Bay.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper51:01
Scott Pianowski believes Sean Tucker has significant untapped potential, suggesting he could deliver an RB13-level season if given a featured opportunity.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
NegativeProjection45:50
Scott Pianowski ranks Stefon Diggs in the 50s among wide receivers, noting that while he remains a good player, his late arrival in Washington and age (33) limit his ceiling to a potential 940-yard, 6-touchdown season.
Insight pageTony Pollard
PositiveValue41:54
Scott Pianowski considers Tony Pollard undervalued, viewing him as a 'boring value' play who can provide consistent production for the Titans, similar to his previous RB19-level output.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveBreakout44:13
Scott Pianowski was a major proponent of Tucker Kraft, noting that he looked like 'Kittle 2.0' for two months before his knee injury, and suggests his recovery timeline might make him a better value than Kittle.
Insight pageTyquan Thornton
NegativeUsage0:18
Scott Pianowski questions whether Tyquan Thornton will receive enough playing time in Kansas City to showcase his ability to make splash plays.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to The Dominator! I'm your fantasy conciliary, Dan Williamson, the Overhyped Sleeper.
0:04You can find me on x at overhypedsleeper. Just drop that final e from sleeper.
0:08And joining me today is really my oldest friend in the fantasy industry.
0:12Okay, probably not the oldest, but definitely the one who I go back the farthest with.
0:17I mean, we're talking prodigy message boards, five and a quarter inch floppy disks, screeching modems, you know, real stone age times.
0:23But I'll tell you what, there's no sharper player or analyst in the game, in my opinion.
0:28There never has, never will be. This man has the best gut instinct you'll ever find.
0:33His podcasts are fantastic. They're dripping with actionable content.
0:36And on top of that, he's also an SFSWA, that's really hard to say, Hall of Famer, as well as an award-winning
0:42writer, one of the best writers in any field, in my opinion.
0:45Scott Pianowski is going to be on The Dominator today.
0:48And I am fired up about it. So enough of the preamble.
0:52Let's go dominate. Welcome, Scott. How are you doing?
0:55I'm on the floor after that introduction. I don't know how I could possibly live up to it.
1:00But man, it is always great to talk to you.
1:03As always, once we hit record on this, before we hit record, but once we got connected on the webcam and all
1:09that, you know, we had to talk for a while and share some stories.
1:13And just everything you, all the ethos that you, all the emotions, all the thoughts that you echoed in my introduction go right back to you.
1:21You're a player I greatly respect. I always feel smarter and better prepared after we talk.
1:26And just, you know, you're just a really good guy, too.
1:29Not all the great fantasy players are good guys, but I think a lot of them are.
1:34And, you know, we go back a long way.
1:37I love to tell the Randy Moss story of how you told me, based on some of the practice reports you were
1:43getting, how Randy Moss, 1998 rookie, back when nobody drafted rookies, and a third receiver on an offense was kind of a kill shot.
1:50You're like, man, he's going to be impactful right away.
1:53You have to get this guy. And that's back in the time where you could have gotten Randy Moss at every one
1:59of your teams if you wanted to. And, of course, did I listen to that advice?
2:04Did I execute that advice? Of course I didn't.
2:07But it was right. And, you know, I will be better for my fantasy drafts.
2:11And just a happier person overall because we spent some time today.
2:15So thanks for having me. Yeah, absolutely. Right back at you on all that.
2:19I just, you know, I've got to have that conversation with Scott to really feel like I'm dialed into the season.
2:25So, you know, a lot of times we sort of figure it out together.
2:29Certainly the Randy Moss thing, I was happy to give you that nugget.
2:33Hopefully at least it puts you on top of him.
2:36So after that first game, you were first in line to put him on your teams.
2:41But those were fun times back in the days when, you know, it was really hard to get together fantasy leagues with
2:47people who were living in different cities and everything.
2:50I've got to say one other thing about Moss.
2:52One thing that kills me is that, and look, I'm preaching to the choir.
2:56You're a guy from Minnesota. But why couldn't the Vikings have won that NFC championship game?
3:01And then rather than watch the Broncos crush the Falcons, you know, look what I found.
3:06You know, Stan Humphreys inspired Atlanta Falcons. Yeah, the Dirty Birds, whatever.
3:09Jamal Anderson was a good player. That wasn't a bad Falcons team.
3:13But Broncos, Vikings had potential to be like a top five Super Bowl.
3:17And that Minnesota team was so much fun. That Denver team, of course, with Elway still playing at a high level.
3:23Terrell Davis breaking the NFL and breaking fantasy leagues.
3:25Rod Smith, one of the best undrafted receivers of all time.
3:29That would have been like a 34-31 Super Bowl pinball game.
3:32Moss, of course, you know, in the spotlight. Chris Carter, Jake Reed.
3:35You know, what a fun Vikings team that was.
3:38That's a Super Bowl I cry for that we didn't get.
3:41Yeah, same. I mean, you know, but death taxes and Vikings teams choking on the biggest stages.
3:46It's just what we've come to expect. Gary Anderson didn't miss a kick all season.
3:51And then he misses the kick that would have iced the game.
3:54Taking a knee, all of it. Yeah, right. How do you take a knee there?
3:59You have this Baserati. He said, no, we'll play for overtime.
4:02So silly. The late Dennis Green. He was the coach then, right?
4:05Dennis Green? Yeah, yes. Yes, he was. That was his crowning jewel right there.
4:09That was the best team he ever put together.
4:12Had some other really good ones, but that one was definitely top of the list.
4:17So what's new with you these days? I mean, you know, you're at Yahoo, but what are you doing there?
4:22Anything that you've got coming up? You know, just tell us a little bit about what's going on with Scott.
4:28Sure. A ton of content this year. A bunch of it is free.
4:32Some of it will be premium for some of the premium stuff we're putting out this year.
4:37And it's a really great time at Yahoo. We've added some new formats.
4:41Some of them have been announced. Some of them haven't.
4:44So I want to be careful about what I talk about because I don't want to reveal anything that shouldn't be revealed yet.
4:51But they've made a lot of improvements in the ways you can play.
4:54The engineers of the game are so good. And we just keep adding talent.
4:58People probably heard that Josh Norris and Hayden Winks have come over this year and they're doing their stuff under the Yahoo umbrella.
5:05We still have me. We still have Matt Harmon.
5:08We still have Justin Boone. You know, a lot of other people.
5:11I could not name everybody I work with who is just a great collaborator.
5:15So I feel like with content, with the game platform, it's in a very strong place for Yahoo.
5:21And if you haven't played Yahoo in a while, I hope you check it out.
5:25If you're a continuing Yahoo player, I appreciate you.
5:28It is a great place to draft. It is a great place to salary cap or auction draft.
5:33So you can play different formats. And again, we added all sorts of new stuff.
5:38Last year, we added one of the – it's called different things.
5:41I think it's called Death Leagues for us now.
5:44It may be called Guillotine and some other formats.
5:46But we added last year, which is one of my favorite ways to play because I'm such a floor-driven guy anyway.
5:52I love the idea that I just get to beat one team a week and I'll build a team that ages over the course of the season.
6:00By the end of the year, if I've survived, I'll have an unbelievable roster.
6:05But all I got to do in September is just squeak by a couple of you.
6:09Man, that really speaks to how I love to draft.
6:12I love to find leagues where Mohamed Sanu is valuable or Wondale Robinson is valuable or K is valuable.
6:18Guys like that. Second tight ends, you might catch seven touchdown passes.
6:21I've often talked about a Denver league. I'm not in right now.
6:25I may join next year. But for 20-plus years, we did a 400-pick draft.
6:29Just no positions, no free agents, no starters, nothing.
6:32Just 20 teams, pick 20 guys, watch them go.
6:34And if you could find somebody in the late rounds who was 550 yards and four touchdowns, that would get you ahead of everybody else in that round.
6:42And to me, that's just one of the joys of fantasy.
6:46But it's also fun to smash the first round.
6:48It's also fun to have a team that crushes everybody over the years.
6:52You just have the right player. I know one time, I think in a league we were in together.
6:58I traded for Larry Johnson right before Priest Holmes got hurt.
7:01Larry Johnson, 2005, the best two months of a running back I've ever seen.
7:05I think everybody had Larry Johnson won their league, and I still think he was going to have like 31 touchdowns and like 3,000 total yards.
7:13The pace that he performed over the last two months is just crazy stuff you would never see today.
7:18But I'm rambling here, but all I want to say is this.
7:22Great time to be playing fantasy. It's a great time to be playing fantasy at Yahoo or engaging in the content at Yahoo.
7:28But if you don't play at Yahoo, that's okay.
7:31I mean, there's a bunch of other sites that are great too.
7:35And there's room for everybody. There's space for everybody.
7:37We've never been smarter as an industry. It's never been harder to beat the rooms that you're in.
7:43Back in 1998, just knowing Dan Williamson and having a modem and having a project talent meant you were one of the best managers in your league.
7:50It's more complicated now. Just knowing Dan Williamson and having an internet hookup isn't enough for me to win my leagues anymore.
7:57I've got to be smarter and deeper and more nuanced than that.
8:00But we welcome the challenge, and we appreciate just how much fun it is to do it.
8:05Yeah, definitely. More is the pity. I mean, I pined for the days when knowing me was enough because I knew me.
8:12And, you know, so that was good. But, yeah, it's a lot tougher these days.
8:16But I tell you, you guys got a great crew out there at Yahoo.
8:20I just drafted against Justin Boone in the FFPC Bros vs.
8:24Joes the other night. And he put together a really, really sharp team.
8:27Really, really good. So, you guys have an excellent crew from top to bottom there for sure.
8:32Yeah, Boone is a ranking savant too. He is such a smart guy and such a humble guy.
8:38Thankfully, I was able to see him and Matt Harmon and our editorial boss, Jason Kobaka, at the Fantasy Football Expo a couple of weeks ago.
8:45And they're just such easy hangs, fun guys. Take pride in their work, but all very grounded in their work as well,
8:52which I think is a reason why they're so good.
8:55I also did mention Joel Smith, who I should have mentioned, who's part of that Yahoo crew.
9:00Didn't get to see him in Ohio. But I can also mention Yahoo has a fantasy game this year.
9:05Eric Froton has been added as our fantasy content guy for Fantasy Football College.
9:09So, you know, that's something you're interested in. If you want to dominate on Saturdays as much as you dominate on Sundays,
9:16check out Eric's content and sign up for a game on Yahoo there.
9:20So, again, a lot of really fun things getting off the ground at Yahoo in 26.
9:24Awesome. Awesome. Let's just dive right in here, Scott, and get into the analysis.
9:28You know, my thumbnail for today's show is a little nod to Bob Dylan and his subterranean homesick blues video.
9:34We did subterranean homesick blues with Mike Evans starring as Bob Dylan.
9:38So that was a fun one. I know you're a big Dylan fan, but what do you think?
9:43I'm a big hibbing Minnesota fan. What I've had playing in my car the last few days is Dan Shaughnessy's I Wish
9:50It Lasted Forever, his recollections of covering the Celtics in the mid-80s.
9:53And there is Kevin McHale gold all over that, including at one point they play, the Celtics play the Knicks in like
10:0084, 85, and Bob Dylan's at the game and McHale has a great game.
10:04And he's like, that's from my main man, Bobby Dylan.
10:07And then McHale starts running through all the famous people from hibbing Minnesota.
10:10Yeah, great stuff. And he also talks about like in Minnesota, you see somebody stuck.
10:15He was talking about the difference between Minnesota and Boston.
10:18He says, yeah, in Minnesota, you see somebody stuck in the snow, in a snowbank.
10:22You just get behind their car and start pushing.
10:25You don't even talk to them. You just help them out.
10:28And in Boston, you laugh and you're like, ah, there's one person I have to worry about today at Dunkin' Donuts.
10:34Or one person I'll beat to work today. You just laugh at their plight.
10:38And sad but true. You're a comfortable hockey state, but let's not kid ourselves.
10:42Minnesota is number one when it comes to hockey.
10:45Yeah, great state, both of them. No doubt about it.
10:48Tough to pick a favorite there. You're a Kevin McHale guy?
10:51Yeah, yeah, definitely. Actually, I ran into him at a small restaurant in Minnesota one time.
10:56Just, you know, wasn't really expecting to see him.
10:59You know, of course, I'm not the kind of guy who goes out there and, hey, you're Kevin McHale, you know.
11:05Right, yeah, yeah. All that kind of thing. But very, very cool.
11:08Really nice guy. I mean, you know, just watching him interact with everybody who did come up to him, watching him interact with the staff and everything.
11:16You know, good people. I'll promise I'll stay on topic after this.
11:20But one thing about McHale, I'm just going to say two things really quick, really quick.
11:24One, the most enjoyable low post player ever. You can argue that Kareem was the best low post player ever because of the unblockable skyhook.
11:32But McHale's collection of moves and the way he would just school people down low was unbelievable to watch.
11:37It's all on YouTube, not to mention you get all that Larry Bird touch passes.
11:42I cannot suggest that stuff enough. But the other thing about Kevin McHale, which I want to carry over to the show,
11:48is Kevin McHale never forgot it's supposed to be fun.
11:51It's unbelievable that I get paid to be a basketball player.
11:54I'm playing with Larry Bird. I'm playing with Robert Parrish.
11:57I'm playing with Dennis Johnson. I'm playing in the Boston Guard.
12:01He just got it. He appreciated it. That's an ethos that we should carry over to the stuff we do.
12:06How great is it that we get to talk fantasy football?
12:10And I know that you're screaming out there, OK, Pianowski, talk some fantasy football.
12:14I didn't come here for the Kevin McHale files.
12:16OK, fine. Or the Randy Moss 1998 stories. Last I checked, Randy Moss is not draftable this year, and that is true.
12:23But Kevin McHale, man, just thinking about McHale and thinking about his up and under moves and his drop steps and his
12:29fall away, a really good free throw shooter. But it's a guy who remembered he was supposed to be fun.
12:35And then Walton comes to that 86 team, and that team was all about joy.
12:40And Bill Walton's another one of my favorites. By the way, I still can't believe we lost Bill Walton.
12:45But he symbolizes so many things that I want to carry over to the work I do, including being long-winded, apparently.
12:51But I promise we'll start talking football any minute now.
12:54All right. So it's good. So let's just dive right into the 49er situation.
12:58So I was reading this morning that 20 of their 90-rostered players were unavailable for practice today.
13:03Do you believe in the substation voodoo? Or is that just kind of everybody likes to talk about it, and it's not a real thing?
13:11The logical side of me doesn't want to believe in it.
13:14But, man, they just keep hitting these injury pockets year after year.
13:17And what I do believe in, what you can't deny, I often say it's not fun to play fantasy sports like an
13:24actuary, but it's often the right thing to do.
13:26We can't get away from the ages of this team.
13:29George Kittle, old. Mike Evans, old. Christian McCaffrey, old.
13:32Debo Samuel brought in to be the quasi-replacement because Ricky Pearsall got hurt.
13:36He's old, too. Football's a young person's game. Fantasy football is a young person's game.
13:40And this is something I've tried to get more and more proactive about, drafting younger, drafting front nine guys, drafting players who haven't had their best season yet.
13:49Because I came over to fantasy football from fantasy baseball, where the aging curves a lot of times are more gradual.
13:55You want younger players in fantasy baseball, too. But it's more likely for somebody to be like an MVP in Canada at age 32 or 33 in baseball.
14:03That just doesn't happen in football. I mean, the quarterbacks, I guess they are what they are, and they're different species.
14:09But you don't think of a receiver entering his age 32 or 33 season as a sweet spot.
14:14Or, oh, okay, I can see a monster season here.
14:17Football doesn't work that way. So when this season started, draft season started, I'm thinking, yeah, I'm going to be in on
14:24Brock Purdy and great year to wait a quarterback.
14:26And he's Shanahan puppeteer and all that stuff. And McCaffrey's efficiency is going down, but the usage is going to be great.
14:33Mike Evans was put on this earth to score touchdowns.
14:36I'm going to be a little careful with Kittle's return.
14:39And maybe Jake Tongas is a sleeper early in the season.
14:42He was a nice player last year. He's not George Kittle.
14:45There's really no what he is. Because Tucker Craft was starting to look that way early last season.
14:50It's so sad to see him get hurt. I don't really know what to do with draft this year.
14:56But I feel like I was going to be in on this offense.
15:00And everything that's happened the last three or four weeks, I take a little bit of a step away and a little
15:06bit of a step away and a little bit of a step away.
15:10And I move Purdy down a little bit. I was already a little bit leery on McCaffrey.
15:15I like Evans at cost. But I found out in the Kings Classic salary cap draft that when push came to shove
15:22and he was going a little bit over market, I didn't have the stomach for Mike Evans.
15:27I'm nervous about Kittle, this team. I'm starting to fear that even though it's a talented team, they could be looking at a year from hell.
15:34And maybe at the end of the year we'll be like, how did the 49ers go 7-10 with all their talent?
15:40I'm backing off this offense and I hate saying it.
15:43Yeah, this is one of those deals where you look at it and at the end of the year you're going to
15:50figure, well, this was so foreseeable no matter which way it breaks because they've got all the talent.
15:55So if everything does come together and you don't buy in, you're going to just be kicking yourself going, why?
16:01They were giving me the discount in August. All the substation crap, which is just a bunch of mumbo jumbo, and I
16:07could have bought in at cheaper prices. And man, what a fantastic season Mike Evans had, George Kittle still looking like Wolverine
16:14out there and all that kind of stuff. But then on the other hand, if it does happen like you said, and
16:20they go 7-10 and it's just an injury-marked wreckage, you look at it and you go, all the signs were there.
16:26Why in the hell did I buy into this offense?
16:29By the way, what you're just outlining, I feel like you can do that.
16:33There's an obvious pro, obvious con case for every fantasy angle we care about.
16:38And what's going to happen, and this is something, I've tried to get better about this, but it still drives me crazy.
16:44What's going to happen is however the season runs out, there's just going to be the victory laps.
16:49Of course you saw this coming, right? Of course you saw that Luther Byrd was the breakout player in Chicago.
16:55How did you not draft him in the second or third round?
16:59Why did you not see he was a buy-in dynasty, blah, blah, blah.
17:02Wait a minute, no, no, no. Of course you saw Roman Doonsley was the right guy to get.
17:08I mean, the price between him and Byrd got crazy, and Doonsley's foot wasn't that bad, and Ben Johnson, you just have to trust him.
17:15No, no, wait a minute. Of course we saw that Colson Loveland was the right answer.
17:20Did you see the last two months of what he did last season and the targets he was getting in December and
17:26January, and he was a difference maker at tight end?
17:29Of course your strategy should have been to get Colson Loveland no matter what.
17:33We have all the answers. We just don't know which path is going to come in.
17:38And of course there's going to be things where a bunch of backups are going to play.
17:43In the case of Purdy, this is probably a Brock Purdy in the NFL somewhere right now who's a quarterback who hasn't
17:49had a chance to play, who we don't realize is that great.
17:53I go back to the Drew Brees story where he plays with the Chargers.
17:57He's okay, not great. They draft Phillip Rivers. He's going to take over.
18:01He signs late. So they have to play Brees that season because Rivers just can't get up to speed quickly enough to be the starting quarterback.
18:09Brees has a Pro Bowl season. Okay, I guess we've got to play Drew Brees another year.
18:14So Phillip Rivers has to basically stay on ice for two seasons.
18:17Brees turns into a Pro Bowler. Phillips Rivers signed on time.
18:20Do we find out that Drew Brees is great?
18:23Maybe he just would have been a backup and backup really healthy quarterbacks his whole life.
18:28Ironically, part of the reason Brees left is his shoulder was bad.
18:31Miami and Nick Saban almost took him. He ends up with the Saints.
18:35The NFL is filled with so many of these guys that we don't know.
18:39And it's even more pronounced at the running back and wide receiver spots.
18:43Is Ryan Flournoy just a star waiting to get a chance?
18:46Is Tyquan Thornton ever going to get a chance in Kansas City?
18:50All that guy makes is splash plays. Sean Tucker in Tampa Bay, I think he could be great if he gets a chance to play.
18:57Right now he's essentially the third back in Tampa Bay.
19:00So many of these stories are going to come up.
19:03It's going to be about opportunity. It may be about desperation.
19:06It may just be about happenstance. Look at how Blake Corham carved a bigger role with the Rams last year.
19:12He's a player I'm high on and coincidentally are tied to that.
19:15Tyron Williams, I don't dislike him, but because I want Corham, I'm less likely to draft Williams.
19:20I feel like we have a lot of these.
19:23There are stories that we already have the answers, the pro, the con.
19:27You outlined the Niners. Of course it was obvious.
19:30Of course this is a top five offense. Or of course it was obvious.
19:34This was an old team that had injury signs before the season started.
19:37We just don't know what's going to happen. And then it's going to be, is it Sean Tucker?
19:43Is it Flournoy? Some of the guys I mentioned, or is there players nobody's thinking about?
19:47God forbid one of the star quarterbacks gets hurt.
19:50We find out his backup is more ready to play than anybody expected.
19:54That's why we love the NFL. And yet it's frustrating when the end of the season will happen and the victory laps will start.
20:01First of all, victory laps will start in week one.
20:04They may even start during the exhibition season at this point.
20:07People are very aggressive to tell you they were right.
20:10One thing I love about fantasy is how often, Dan, you can be wrong and still be a good player.
20:16You're just going to be right a little bit more than the guy next to you.
20:21And that's what I'm trying to do. But I hope that I own my misses and I am fair and transparent about
20:27the process because there's so much we're not going to get right.
20:31And as you said, it's going to look so obvious after.
20:34Life only makes sense looking backwards, but we have to live it forwards.
20:38But I know there's going to be a lot of regret on how did I not see that coming?
20:43We're going to be feeling that all season and certainly at the end of the year.
20:48Yeah, without a doubt. I mean, you know, if you want to get my eyes to slide right past whatever you're posting
20:54on X, the easiest way to do it is to start off a tweet with, last season I told you, you know, blah, blah, blah.
21:02I hope you listened. Yeah, exactly. It's like, yeah, are you going to tell us all the stuff that you told us that didn't work out?
21:09Because I know there was plenty of that too.
21:12So I was very close to muting that phrase for a little while, but I decided that the humor component was just too good to pass up.
21:20So had to go do that. All right. Before we dive back into it, we're going to pay some bills real quick.
21:26We'll be right back. The NFFC, my favorite high stakes fantasy platform.
21:30Why? Third round reversal, Kentucky Derby draft slot allocation.
21:33So it's a lottery based system where you can put in your preference where you want to draft.
21:38It's full PPR. There's three receivers. It's the best place to play fantasy football, especially for high stakes.
21:43And now they've combined with the FFWC, they have a lot more contests to offer.
21:47In fact, they have a double crown bonus where you can join the NFFC primetime.
21:52And if you win that 300 grand, you can also join the Circo World Championship.
21:56And that's 200 grand. You win both. You win a million dollars.
22:00So go to playNFFC.com slash profiler and check the show description for a number of promo codes you can use.
22:06First time 100 to get 100 bucks when you sign up.
22:09But also, every time you sign up for a new contest, we give you codes to use to get discounts on those entry fees as well.
22:17Thank you to the NFFC. They make our podcast network what it is.
22:20Okay, and we're back. So just before the break, you were talking about Kyron Williams and Blake Corum.
22:26And I think you got a great point there.
22:28It's been really tough for me to take Kyron where he's going in drafts because of what we saw from Corum as the season went along.
22:36And the drumbeat now is just that he's continued to get better, Corum has.
22:40And, you know, it's really, really hard to see Kyron paying off without something happening to Corum.
22:45And also, you know, just the sheer number of or the amount of, you know, Kyron scoring that's dependent on touchdowns has always kind of blown me away.
22:53But that's, you know, that kind of seems to be the Rams MO.
22:57You know, Devontae Adams, you know, 114 targets last year, 14 touchdowns.
23:01You know, how do you ever see that coming?
23:03I mean, you know, you say, okay, well, Devontae Adams, Matt Stafford, you know, easy pick to make.
23:08But I guarantee you nobody was saying, oh, he's going to get 14 touchdowns, you know, and just 114 targets.
23:14You know, but how do you feel about the Rams in general, Scott?
23:18I mean, you know, basically we're looking at a team, you know, that absolutely blew people away last year offensively.
23:24This year, possibly a better defense. It's hard to see how the offense doesn't take something of a step back.
23:30But on the other hand, you know, if you're not in on Devontae Adams, then, you know, Puka can't do, you know,
23:36he's not going to score 30 touchdowns. Who are you in on in the passing game if it's not Devontae Adams?
23:43What do you think? We need to take a long look at this offense.
23:47Stafford, Sean McVay, Puka, who could be the best receiver in football.
23:50Devontae Adams already on a Hall of Fame track.
23:53Williams has been such a reliable player for several years.
23:56Corham was so good in the second half of last year.
23:59Once Corham started to get those double digit touches every week, he performed at a pace, which is roughly 900 yards and
24:05seven or eight touchdowns in a full season. That's roughly, I think, what it was.
24:10I don't have the numbers in front of me, but he basically, if he maintains that, he's flex worthy right now with the possibility.
24:17I hate to say league winner, but he can be really obviously impactful if he were to ever pass Williams or Williams
24:23were to get hurt or fumble jail or anything like that.
24:27Blake Corham's somebody I want to draft. But age 38 season for Stafford.
24:30There are on field and off field concerns with Nakua.
24:33Adams into an age pocket we're a little bit nervous about.
24:37There's a lot of talent in this tight end room, but there's just a lot of tight ends, man.
24:42I think Sean McVay has a hoarding problem with that position.
24:45I feel like they're going to score 13, 14 touchdowns at tight end.
24:49I have no idea what the dispersion is going to be.
24:52So how does this all shake out? I am yellow light on Stafford.
24:56I'm not focusing on getting him. He's one of several inexpensive options I'm fine with on my roster.
25:01It's great to think that he can be a backup in a lot of fantasy setups.
25:06If you're going to be late to draft your first quarterback, you should probably be early to draft your second quarterback.
25:12And a lot of leagues that won't make sense with Stafford.
25:16Because Puka plays such a physical style, he was obviously hurt constantly in college, which is why he was available to the Rams in the first place.
25:23And the rare exception, Dan, we always talk about you've got to get those receivers because you're not going to find an impactful receiver on waivers.
25:31Puka is the generational exception to that. I think of Anquan Bolden popping his first year, Puka, what he did.
25:37But you can never count on that. And if that ever does happen, you're going to be elbowing everybody else in your room out of the way.
25:45You may have to blow all your fab money.
25:48Whatever you spent on Nakua was worth it that one season.
25:51I'm okay with Puka. I just wish I could be confident he would play close to a full season.
25:56Adams is at an age 34. I know how great he is.
26:00I know how unbelievable he is in space. He's obviously had a front row seat with that.
26:05But I'm nervous about – it's not that I think Devonta Adams will ever be a bad football player.
26:10But if there's any attrition, there's any regression, I'd just rather not be on side with that.
26:15So yellow light to Puka. Slightly red on Adams.
26:18It's not like I'm dead set against drafting him, but I don't want to.
26:22And because I'm so high on Corum, I'm going to be out on Williams.
26:26So I ask myself an offense that should be top five as long as Stafford doesn't get hurt.
26:32I can't see how it isn't. But I feel like there's a lot of landmines maybe we have to tiptoe around.
26:38Or there's a lot of just nervousness I have with this team.
26:41And if I don't have – there are certain teams.
26:44I feel like the Chargers, there's going to be big ADP wins, even with all the helium they have.
26:50And I look at my profile, my portfolio before the season starts.
26:53If it's not heavy on Chargers, I'll feel like I've screwed up somewhere.
26:57If I'm just kind of average weight on the Rams or even slightly below average weight on the Rams, admitting how much
27:04talent they have, how much fun they were last year, how much I believe in all the pieces, quarterback, play caller, skill talent.
27:10But even if I'm just, yeah, okay, I'm average or a little below weight on them, I'm surprisingly okay with that.
27:16And a big part of it is how I expect the running back situation to go, where I think it's 60-40 all the way.
27:24It could be 50-50. It could be flow of the game.
27:27And my biggest takeaway here is I want you to be overweight on quorum and underweight on Williams.
27:32Yeah, I totally get that. So, you know, I think we tell the truth when we draft a little bit.
27:38So let me throw a couple of either-or's at you.
27:41You know, you're on the clock. Puka Nakua or JSN?
27:44So at the Kings Classic stake draft, I had the fifth pick, and I was petrified it was going to come down between McCaffrey, JSN, and St.
27:52Brown. And I was wondering if I could actually take St.
27:55Brown over all those guys. But then when Puka got to me, McCaffrey went in front of me.
28:00I was relieved to take Puka. But I'm definitely hitting the Puka button in that spot.
28:05Okay. And it sounds like then also over ARSB, you'd be hitting that Puka button.
28:09I would. Although I think St. Brown versus JSN or possibly over JSN is a real interesting inflection point.
28:15JSN was amazing last year. He's done it once.
28:18I'm a huge believer in four in the first round.
28:20And I just think the floor with St. Brown is so much higher.
28:24Better setup. All the indoor games. Better quarterback. Well, maybe the quarterback is pretty close to even.
28:29It depends what people think of Darnold. But I just expect there's going to be a lot more games where Goff throws 35, 40, 45 passes.
28:37The Seahawks have such a great defense. They don't have to play that way, even if there's some defensive regression.
28:43Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders has often talked about how offense is more repeatable and more consistent year over year.
28:49And defense is a lot more variance year over year.
28:52So we have to be careful what we expect of the Seahawks, what we expect of the Texans, as great as those defenses were last year.
28:59But St. Brown, I wish I had more St.
29:02Brown. I think he's a great get in the first round because you're getting such a high floor.
29:07And anybody you take in the first round has enough upside to justify the pick.
29:12It's not that he's an unknown or it's not like people are dissing St.
29:16Brown. But I think he might be a trifle bit underrated in our space right now.
29:20Yeah, I'm with you there. And, you know, for the record, I have ARSB as my number five pick.
29:26And then, you know, I'm looking at JSN after that because I do agree with you.
29:31I think the floor is there. I'm a little bit worried with JSN.
29:34You know, with Kubiak gone, you know, that offense could definitely take a step back.
29:39I do like that there's some, you know, there's some more receiving talent around him this year, hopefully.
29:44You know, with Shahid having, you know, a full offseason to get into the game plan.
29:49You know, hopefully Torrey Horton, a little bit, you know, better injury luck with him.
29:53I'm an A.J. Barner believer, too. Shahid obviously has to be better.
29:57I'm not telling anybody anything revolutionary there because he did nothing with Seattle.
30:01He's a good football player. Barner, what is it, 10 rushing attempts?
30:04He converted nine of them. I would not be shocked if he ran in two or three touchdowns.
30:09And he's already got the upside to maybe score eight or nine times as a tight end.
30:14The touchdown distribution, the yardage distribution has to be more flat this year after being all JSN all the time last year.
30:21I mean, some of that has to be, has to bounce back.
30:24It's the Bill James plexiglass principle. Yeah, yeah, definitely.
30:27And, you know, I think Barner is a very, very sneaky late tight end dart throw, you know, that might not even
30:33be that much of a dart throw. So, he's a guy I'm definitely going to be taking chances on throughout the remainder of the season.
30:41As far as Stafford, though, let's, you know, you just mentioned Jared Goff.
30:45If you're on the clock, you've got Stafford and Goff staring you in the face.
30:49You need a quarterback. Which way are you going?
30:52You know, it's funny. My first, I think, was Goff.
30:55In my rankings right now, I have Stafford a little bit higher.
30:58Not that I'm slave to my rankings. We draft so we can find out how accurate our rankings are as reflections of how we feel.
31:05That's one of those things where I had that choice ten times.
31:09I'd probably six it one way and four it the other way.
31:12I feel like Goff's a little bit safer, but I don't see an obvious right answer.
31:17The fact that I didn't even have the rankings as I thought I had them speaks to that's right down the middle.
31:24Now, you're forcing me to make a call right now because Goff's a little bit younger.
31:28And I feel like their defense is going to force the issue a little bit more with the scoring, the indoor heavy schedule.
31:35Goff would be the guy I'd pick today, but I would not be pounding the table for that at all.
31:41It's very much a seam call. And I would want to balance my exposures if I'm drafting a lot of volume.
31:47And I know that sounds like an incredible cop-out, but I'm just trying to be honest and transparent here.
31:53No, that's no cop-out at all. I mean, you know, when I'm in a draft and I'm looking at a quarterback, you know, in that range.
32:00And, you know, basically the picks are steamrolling towards me.
32:03And Stafford and Goff are both still there. I'm like, please, somebody take one of these guys so I can draft the other one with conviction, you know.
32:11What a year to wait, right? I am not.
32:14Josh Allen is going to be the number one or number two quarterback.
32:18I'm going to be on none of my teams.
32:21And Lamar Jackson, I'm not going to draft. And I'm probably not going to draft May.
32:25And as my colleague on the Breakfast Table podcast always says about Joe Burrow, what does Joe Burrow offer that Dak Prescott doesn't offer at a cheaper price?
32:33Their setups are so incredibly similar, right? Dynamic receivers, probably bad defenses.
32:37Jay Daniels makes me a little bit nervous. I don't know who Hurts is going to be in the year after the A.J.
32:44Brown breakup. Some of his rushing production went down last year.
32:47Everybody in that next tier of quarterbacks. Allen is separated because Allen's going to do what he does.
32:52But why can't Caleb Williams beat Drake May? Or why can't Justin Herbert beat Jalen Hurts?
32:57Or why can't Trevor Lawrence beat Burrow or Daniel?
33:00You know, those guys, I want to be in on those guys.
33:03And even with that, look at the value on Dart.
33:06Look at the value on Knicks. Look at the value, if healthy, around him on Purdy.
33:11We talked about Stafford and Goff are decent picks.
33:13Kyler Murray doesn't really have a floor. But man, if he has Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson, he certainly has an upside.
33:20Baker Mayfield has his pluses. It's exciting to see what Tyler Shuck did last year as a rookie.
33:25Maybe Malik Willis is going to Konami code his way into relevance.
33:29You can succeed at any price point a quarterback.
33:31And you don't have to like the guys that Dan likes or I like.
33:35You can have your own opinion, your own rankings.
33:38It's the New York subway system. You miss a train, there's another one coming in five minutes.
33:43Good way to put it. I like that. Yeah, and the nice thing is you can also kind of choose your train
33:49based on who you took earlier in the draft.
33:52You know, with all these quarterbacks going in the, you know, kind of mid rounds, you can figure out your stack.
33:58It used to be, you know, quarterbacks were pushed up so early.
34:02You'd take your quarterback and then you'd be finding people to pair with him.
34:06And now you can, you know, you can just kind of let the draft come to you in the first few rounds.
34:12And it's like, oh, okay, I got Puka Nakua.
34:15You know, maybe I want Stafford for my second quarterback instead of Goff.
34:19I got Amon Ross St. Brown. And it's going to be Goff instead of Stafford.
34:23You know, lots of things like that. You know, you got Jalen Waddell, maybe Bo Nix is going to be your second quarterback.
34:30Let me ask you this. How important is stacking to you?
34:33I realize it's largely league dependent, format dependent. But just where are you at with stacking as we enter the fresh season?
34:40Yeah, it's really format dependent. Like, you know, in contest leagues, I think it's critical to, you know, have some correlations going.
34:46You know, it's nothing that I'm going to be, you know, reaching a long way to make it happen.
34:52But I want to try to get some correlations going one way or another.
34:56You know, even if I have to do the backdoor stack, you know, and I take a guy like, you know, Sam Darnold and then add A.J.
35:04Barner later, you know, as my second quarterback. You know, especially if it's a best ball situation.
35:09You know, you never know how those are going to go.
35:12But even in managed leagues, I think it's, if you're in a contest, it's critical to, you know, try to have some
35:18kind of correlation going over those last few weeks if you can.
35:22But mostly just, you know, you know, a quarterback receiver, even if it's a tight end, you know, those kind of things can definitely help out.
35:30So when I'm in standalone leagues, I pay a lot less attention to it, honestly.
35:34I mean, you know, the basic idea of stacking, obviously, is that, you know, hey, if one does good, hopefully the other
35:40one does good and you have to get less things right and all that kind of stuff.
35:45But in a, yeah, in a standalone league, I'm a lot less likely to really worry about it that much.
35:51Right, for sure. Managed league, it's a lot more about your weekly consistency.
35:55You see, in a lot of these contests, it's about a total point thing at the end of the year.
36:01And you hit the nail on the head. You're trying to find the simplest explanation of how you can dominate the world, right?
36:08When I used to start playing, I started playing NCAA March Madness pools in the 90s.
36:12A lot of times I'd win them or do well on them.
36:16It was all understanding market behavior. One year I picked UCLA because I lived on the East Coast.
36:21I knew nobody thought much of the UCLA team.
36:24And I thought by picking them, I was getting a much better set of odds for them than they would.
36:30Their true odds probably were of winning the title.
36:32It's convenient that they won and I end up winning my pool easily.
36:36But I think I had it set up where maybe if they even made the final, I would have won without them winning the championship.
36:43And that can be kind of rare in a March Madness pool.
36:47You're trying to find the simplest explanation. And in the case of a stack, it's like, hey, this receiver tight end had a huge year.
36:54It was tied to his quarterback. That's not a lot.
36:57If you have a simple explanation of how you hit your upside, how you hit your ceiling, that gives you, I think,
37:04a better chance to win or a more plausible path of winning rather than I'm going to win by being right on a million small things.
37:11I'm not saying it can't happen. Or if you run incredibly pure with injury luck, those teams are going to do well
37:18just because you have more people performing for you in the best ball streets.
37:22The best thing you could ever do is pick a healthy team.
37:25I don't know how you really do that. The more I play, the less I feel we have any power over that.
37:32There's certain things we could follow, but everybody follows the common sense.
37:35And a lot of that, you just need the gods to smile on you.
37:40But I agree that in the contest world, in the best ball world, the MillieMaker stuff, you're trying to get those correlations
37:46where I think they're a little bit less important.
37:49Or maybe even a full beat less important in a managed league.
37:52Yeah, yeah, for sure. And I think that, especially for people who are just running one or two leagues, the one mistake
37:59I see them make often is just when you are putting together your team, you want to put together your team like
38:05every decision you have made is the right one.
38:08Yes. Yes. If you're constantly going back and kind of covering your butt on, oh, I've got to get my handcuffed to my running back.
38:15And I'm going to get another receiver from this team, even though I don't really like them that well, just because what if my primary guy goes down?
38:23You know, all that kind of stuff. That's the wrong way to be stacking things.
38:28The right way is just to say, you know what?
38:31I feel really strongly about these two guys. I'm going to take them and I'm going to move on and I'm going to assume that's right.
38:38God, that's such a great takeaway. So I want people to go back.
38:42I want you to, on your podcast player, I want you to hit 15 seconds back, 30 seconds back and listen to what Dan just said.
38:50Chris Liss, she's always talk about that. Draft is if you're right, the entire draft and handcuffing man, running back insurance, it's bunting in a baseball game.
38:58Now, it can be right to bunt in a baseball game late in the game when one run, run, run wins the game.
39:04And I think actually running back insurance makes a lot of sense.
39:08Middle of the year, late part of the year.
39:11In the early part of the season, you're trying to build a juggernaut.
39:14You're trying to hit home runs. You're trying to play for upside.
39:18You're trying to draft as if you've already drafted correctly, as Dan outlined.
39:22And that means you're taking the backups, the handcuffs, the exciting running backs on other people's teams.
39:27Those are the guys you're targeting. Try to get that crooked number up.
39:30And then later in the year, if it makes sense, and maybe it will and maybe it won't, we can talk about insurance.
39:37There's a time and a place for that. It is not in August.
39:41So, again, go back and listen to what Dan just said.
39:44It's one of the great takeaways. Draft is if you're right.
39:47And handcuffing, I think, is a grossly overrated strategy.
39:50I mentioned Larry Johnson earlier. I mean, the days of we know who the backup is and we know he's going to smash.
39:57Those days are pretty much gone now. A lot of teams.
40:00What if Amari and Hampton got hurt? How much of it would be Keaton Mitchell?
40:05How much of it would be Vidal? Maybe the offense would have more of a pass tint to it.
40:10Maybe the team would start to play worse. It's so many moving parts.
40:14Is the offensive line healthy? And, man, I hope that offensive line can stay healthy after going to Bluey last year in September.
40:21But we don't know so many things. And I just don't want to invest that way.
40:25Like, I'm trying to cover myself up. I'm trying to come in fifth.
40:29I'm trying to get on base. You're trying to hit home runs.
40:33We'll worry about the insurance. What makes sense to me?
40:36That's, I don't know, late October, early November. It may be December in some leagues.
40:40Every league is different. Fab. Personality. Roster shape. Can you trade or can you not trade?
40:45Because some leagues don't do a lot. Some leagues don't.
40:48Is your league trading in general? Some leagues have trading, but nobody wants to do it.
40:52Other leagues, it's like to trade every 10 minutes.
40:55But if you're going to do the handcuffing backup at all, it's an in-season move.
40:59Please do not do it in August. Exactly. And I kind of look at it as like, okay, it's an insurance policy.
41:06But a lot of them are just really crappy insurance policies.
41:09Because we don't really know yet exactly who the handcuff is going to be.
41:13Or, you know, like you said, you know, if Hampton goes down, what's going to happen?
41:18It's, you know, it's usually not just one guy who picks up the pace and, you know, all of a sudden becomes,
41:24you know, the guy that you want. You know, obviously with Kyron Williams and Blake Corum, you know, Corum is the obvious handcuff there.
41:31But he's also so expensive that you cannot afford to be taking both Kyron Williams and Blake Corum at the same, you
41:38know, on the same team for the most part.
41:40Certainly not the way I play anyway. So I think you're right on there.
41:45Want to move real quick. I thought this was an interesting question.
41:48Maybe not for the reason that our audience member asked it.
41:51But do you keep Tony Power or George Kittle?
41:54I think that's the fascinating thing of, you know, do I want to keep a guy that I feel like is going
42:00to be able to be somewhat productive for, you know, probably most of the season if he doesn't get hurt?
42:06Versus somebody who's really, you know, could be fantastic or it could be an absolute nothing if Kittle gets hurt again.
42:12What would your take on that be? With the obvious caveat slash cop out that it's extremely roster league format dependent.
42:19My vacuum play on this, and this may sound contradictory to some of the things I've already said in the show, is
42:25going to be Pollard because Tony Pollard. And I've tried to move away from the boring value that that was, again, a jam I took from fantasy baseball.
42:33I used to call those guys that were a little Vanya's all-stars, a player who was better in his 30s than his
42:4020s, but was generally unsexy on draft day. And you got a nice value and you just beat people by incremental good decisions in fantasy baseball.
42:47You need a lot of, it takes a village to win a fantasy baseball league.
42:52In fantasy football, ideally you want to be right about two or three really big things.
42:56Maybe that number is wrong. Maybe it's four big things, whatever it is.
43:00But you want a few really big things to go your way, even though I'm still going to try to win the
43:07incremental way too and just make better decisions weekly with my start-sit decisions, my fab, my streaming, all that stuff.
43:13That stuff matters, and I want leagues that reflect that.
43:16But at the end of the day, you're going to look back and say these two or three things went right or
43:22wrong for me, and they probably defined my season.
43:25I think Pollard's underrated, though. Achilles injury in January, he's my favorite player in the NFL.
43:29I think he's in the Hall of Fame. He should be.
43:33I don't know how people view that, if he still has work to do.
43:37It's a golden age for tight ends. Gonzalez and Gronkowski and Kelsey, of course, on his final lap.
43:42There's so many great ones. Even guys who won't get in.
43:45Think of how great Jimmy Graham was, right? Dynamic touchdown score.
43:48We can go on and on with that. But I'm just afraid of an Achilles injury this close to the season.
43:55And I know the idea might be, oh, I'm going to pick George Kittle, and he'll be back to full throttle by
44:01the end of the season when I'm in the playoffs because I'm great.
44:05And he'll smash, and he'll run all over everybody, and I'll trample everybody to the championship.
44:10Him and Kraft, I'm being very careful with my expectations.
44:13And Tucker Kraft was probably my biggest, I don't know, pound the table, flag plant, whatever you will.
44:18I tried to get him in every league. I thought he was grossly mispriced.
44:22And for two months, he basically looked like Kittle 2.0.
44:25And Kittle is generally a player you would say is sweet generous.
44:28It's not somebody you'd expect. Anybody to remind you of him?
44:32But that's who Kraft reminded me of for two months.
44:35And then he has the knee blowout. At least that happened halfway through the season.
44:39He's had more time with rehab, and maybe the expectations for Kraft opening day make more sense than Kittle.
44:44But I'm afraid to draft George Kittle. I also see enough depth at tight end.
44:49I know people have different opinions on this. But I actually find myself gravitating to not the first two guys, but I'm
44:55interested in Loveland if he has a reasonable price.
44:58I think Ty Warren is a good target. I'm warming up to Sam Laporta.
45:02There's a lot of guys in the tiers below who interest me.
45:06I'm going to be out of the Kittle business.
45:08I know Pollard is not sexy. Nobody's going to be jealous when you take him.
45:13You're not going to win the Hipster League by taking Tony Pollard.
45:16But I think he's undervalued. I think the Titans offense might be like a credible 6-11, 7-10.
45:21They're not a bad team. They could be like maybe last year's Saints, right?
45:25They're not great, but they're pesky. They upset a few people in the second half of the year.
45:31And we walk away thinking, yeah, you know, Kent Ward has a chance.
45:34Yeah, you know, they drafted some good guys. Wando Robinson's not that bad.
45:38They got a hit in the first round at receiver.
45:41And Tony Pollard just had another like running back 19 season that was underdrafted.
45:45Yeah, yeah, totally makes sense. You know, we had another signing yesterday, Stephon Diggs in Washington.
45:50What do you see for Diggs? What do you see for the pin action off of that?
45:55What are your thoughts? You know, Diggs was so much better last year.
45:59Had so much more left in the tank with the Patriots than I expected.
46:03And was also just a really good teammate, a really good leader.
46:06I wasn't sure how to expect that. Would last, would onboard.
46:10A lot of it was Drake May. A lot of it was Josh McDaniels.
46:14But Diggs certainly deserves credit for that. But into an age 33 season and joining a team this late in the proceedings, I don't understand.
46:21They had this need for Diggs for such a long time.
46:24And the goal is to get him in in May, June, July.
46:28You know, don't sign him in August. I mean, it's better late than never.
46:32But, man, give him some time to get comfortable in this offense, to get comfortable with Jade Daniels, to figure out the
46:38shape of your team and to know what your roles are going to be for your younger players.
46:44I don't understand why it took so long. And, of course, this is a team that had that long stalemate with Terry McLaurin last year.
46:51And even though it was tied to a lot of other things, obviously Daniels got hurt.
46:56McLaurin wasn't healthy all the season either. But they had a ruined season, and a lot of it was because of the McLaurin contract situation.
47:03I think Washington made a big mistake taking so much time doing this.
47:07And who knows? Maybe Diggs was – I didn't follow the negotiations closely enough to know that maybe it was a Diggs fall.
47:14But he's 33 going to a new team. I only have him in the 50s, I think, at wide receiver.
47:19I would take him. I wouldn't want to start him.
47:22I'm open-minded to him maybe being a 940 and 6 guy.
47:26I think he's still going to be a good football player.
47:29Maybe kind of similar to what Keenan Allen was last year.
47:32A good football player, but not somebody who moves the needle in any way.
47:36Yeah, I see where you're coming from there. I like Diggs as far as what his talent is.
47:41And I think he looked so good with the Patriots last year.
47:45And you hope that he looks better this year, another year off the ACL.
47:49But, you know, again, an older player. You know, what I really would have liked to have seen was him get him
47:56in, you know, even not – if it wasn't in minicamp, even sign him right after minicamp.
48:01You know, where he and Daniels could go off and, you know, they could play catch for a month or so before
48:07the – you know, before training camp starts. And, you know, and develop some kind of rhythm, some kind of chemistry, you
48:13know, be able to figure out, you know, okay, when – you know, I'm going to make my move this way rather than that way.
48:21And, you know, just get it all – all that timing down.
48:24Well said. I co-sign. What about, you know, as long as we're on the commanders, let's talk the backfield there.
48:30That's another really messy situation. Is it worth delving into, do you think?
48:34Do you have any frontrunners? Man, you know, that's a great question to which I do not have a great answer.
48:40We know JCM hasn't been a pass catcher. And my response to that is often, well, coach him up.
48:46Make him that. Their response has been, well, we'll bring in somebody who can catch passes.
48:50So Bill's not catching passes. But is White going to play enough on the base downs?
48:55Is he going to get enough goal line work?
48:58And then we can't ignore that there's a running quarterback who's going – you've already taken 6.50 and 7 or 7.20 and 5, whatever.
49:05You're taking something off the rushing pie that's going to go to Daniels.
49:09So because there's three interesting backs here, because they do different things well, it's just hard for me to tell a story
49:15where one player gets enough of the predictable, predictable, projectable volume week in, week out that I can trust him for my teams.
49:22And I realize these guys are being drafted as flex guys and as bench players.
49:26But I'm afraid they all kind of cap each other's upside.
49:29So even though it's important to look at nebulous backfields, because that's where your profit is going to be the best, if
49:36you get the right answer, I think there are reasons why everybody here has a lower cap than you might have with
49:42some of the other nebulous backfields around the league.
49:45Right, yeah, because you see Washington, basically all their guys go later than, say, in Tampa where you've got Bucky and Gainwell.
49:51So I think people are perceiving that there might be a more clear winner between Bucky and Gainwell.
49:57I'm not sure that there is. I'm a big Gainwell stan, always have been since he entered the league.
50:02I wished when he was with the Eagles that they would have made use of him a lot more.
50:08But, of course, when you've got Saquon Barkley there, what are you going to do?
50:12Kenneth Gainwell's a guy, if he's on your team, you'll love him.
50:16Yes. He's like a James White. He just does little things, excellent pass.
50:20He was the best receiver, really, best hands on the team on the Steelers last year.
50:24I know Rodgers is going to miss him, and at some point we'll talk about that backfield.
50:29But Kenneth Gainwell's just a winning football player, man.
50:32And every quarterback would want him, every offensive coordinator would want him, and every fan base would just be like, you know,
50:38they're texting each other after Gainwell makes a man miss and has a 14-yard catch on third down.
50:44They're texting their buddies, I love Kenneth Gainwell. Yeah, exactly, which is basically the reason why I just can't buy into Bucky
50:50Irving, even though I was a big Bucky stan when he first, you know, kind of hit the league.
50:56And, you know, he had that great rookie year.
50:58It's tricky, great offensive line. But then Tucker's there, too.
51:01I think Tucker might be the best running back three in the league.
51:05Yeah, I'm with you there. I was also a big Tucker fan, and of course, you know, just waiting for him to
51:12try to get a shot when Bucky went down with injury last year.
51:15You know, it's like every time they put him in there and, you know, feature him, he looks great.
51:21But they just don't do it. So, you know, tough, tough, tough deal.
51:25I'm going to die on that hill that Sean Tucker can play.
51:28And then I realize he had heart problems at Syracuse.
51:31At one point he was like kind of a quasi-Heisman contender.
51:34I would love some year for Sean Tucker to get a chance because I think he's got like a running back 13 season waiting to bust out.
51:42Yeah, I like that, definitely. So let's, you know, we kind of teased it already, but Pittsburgh, what do you think about the backfield there?
51:50Is it worth getting into? I think it is.
51:52Aaron Rodgers, I'm ready to pay the check with him.
51:55I'm ready to be done with Aaron Rodgers. But he's still here, doesn't want to get hit, doesn't want to take deep
52:02drops, doesn't want to hold the ball. He's going to throw a bunch to his backs, both by design and by bailout.
52:08And so even though I think Warren is the better play for that, I think Dattle is going to be involved too.
52:15I think both of them at cost make sense.
52:17I wouldn't mind their receivers. I think their wide receiver room is going to be narrow enough that, and Pittman and Metcalf
52:24are, and they're pain in the neck players. You know, Pittman hasn't had big touchdown seasons and he hasn't stayed healthy.
52:30And Metcalf is one of those guys. I realize receiver is a variance position anyway, but he's a high variance player.
52:36He can be a high effort variance player. He's the type of player where if I told you one of your players
52:43just gets suspended for the week or suspended in the middle of a game, D.K.
52:47Metcalf would be your first guess. You know, he loses his composure from time to time, and at times it looks like he's not trying.
52:54And it's frustrating. I feel like he leaves plays on the field, but still concentrated offense.
52:59And Mike McCarthy, we've spent so much time talking about what he's not good at and what his flaws are and why he needed to leave Green Bay.
53:07He's still a plus answer, I think. And I realize people get frustrated when a lot of the coaching hires are recycling
53:14ideas and people are like, well, find the next great coach.
53:17Why are we trying to recycle a guy who maybe is a B or a B plus or a B minus or
53:23whatever grade you want to give McCarthy? I think he's a better coach and he's given credit for, and he's had to
53:30fall on his sword for a couple of teams that disappointed.
53:33There are things he wasn't great at. And Packer fans will never forgive him for all those short field goals he kicked
53:40against Seattle in the NFC Championship game. Every time they replay that game, I watch it and I say to myself, does Seattle really win this game?
53:47Meaning, does Green Bay really blow this game? And, of course, that's what happens.
53:52Seahawks go to the Super Bowl that year and a game that doesn't make any sense.
53:56And a game that's filled with theory of football that's been dated and solved as false.
54:01I get all that. But I'm not going to draft Rodgers for a bunch of different reasons.
54:06But I feel like the running backs are decent values and they're not proactive picks for me.
54:11But I'm okay with either receiver, even Friar Muth for where he goes.
54:15If you're in a tight end premium league or a league where that third tight end is getting drafted, he's a really good fit for that.
54:22I think the Steelers are going to be a team that nobody wants to line up with or nobody wants to wave
54:29a flag or plant an idea on. And we're going to look up and they're going to be the same 10-7 competitive
54:35first round out in the playoffs Steelers that they usually are.
54:39And there's going to be a couple of fantasy values here.
54:42Not league winners, not, oh my God, this guy saved my season.
54:45But players you were glad you drafted. And I would start with the running backs.
54:50Yeah, I think that's the place to go. I like your analogy on Rodgers being ready to pay the check quite a
54:56while ago, like sitting at a restaurant. And you're desperately hoping that the server will come back around and pick up the
55:03check that she dropped off 20 minutes ago or give you the check that you've been waiting for for 20 minutes.
55:09It's just, that's a perfect analogy. And I think the right thing to do is exactly what you're talking about, is to, you know, realize where Rodgers is.
55:17Rodgers isn't going to be a hero anymore. He has no interest in being a hero.
55:22I mean, if it happens to him, it's great.
55:24But, you know, from play to play to play, you know, rather than make that, you know, sit around in the pocket
55:31and possibly take the big hit and make the hero throw, he's just going to dump it off, dump it off, dump
55:37it off, and he's going to let one of his other players be the hero.
55:42So, you know, his game has really changed over the years.
55:45And it's probably time to just take advantage of the fact that we know what Jalen Warren, we know what Rico Dowdle can probably do with it.
55:53And for me, it's probably Pittman over Metcalf because I think it just kind of fits where Rodgers is likely going to
55:59be throwing the ball a lot more. Totally agree on that.
56:02You know, switching gears a little bit, let's hit one other backfield.
56:06But Denver is another backfield where I think people are a little bit unsure of what to do, you know, because what
56:12surprises me is that not one of these players has really jumped up in ADP.
56:17When you've got, you know, you've got J.K. Dobbins going second.
56:20He's actually going after R.J. Harvey in most leagues.
56:23And then, of course, Jalen Coleman is kind of that specter hanging around, you know, that third running back that everybody's concerned about.
56:29Any thoughts on this backfield? I mean, I understand with Dobbins, you know, everybody's like, oh, he's going to be hurt after
56:36five games or he's going to be hurt after eight games or ten games or whatever it is.
56:41But to me, he seems like the clear lead running back, the guy who's going to be scoring the points for as long as he's healthy.
56:49You know, so that's where I've kind of been landing is I've just been taking that discount on Dobbins and saying, you know what?
56:56If other people want to draft Harvey before Dobbins, great.
56:59Go ahead. Zero running back teams or, you know, maybe a hero running back team where I don't get back to running
57:05back until, you know, many rounds into the draft.
57:08You know, Dobbins is kind of my savior at that point.
57:11It's like, oh, yeah, okay, let's grab Dobbins. He'll at least get me, you know, out of the first few weeks most
57:18likely, you know, with a very, very startable second running back.
57:21And now, boom, I can, you know, I can be rostering all these, you know, more low odds, high upside backups or
57:27guys who might come into value, all that kind of stuff.
57:30Thoughts? Major cosign here. Dobbins is a, you draft into a vanilla Dobbins so you can let your hair down with the exotic flavors later, right?
57:38He's the guy, he's going to mix the balance of risk reward upside floor.
57:42He's going to smooth things out a little bit and let you let your hair down later.
57:47He was a better football player, more trusted than Harvey.
57:50Remember, after Dobbins got hurt last year, Harvey was very inefficient.
57:53Harvey had such a strange season because he ran so pure with the touchdowns.
57:57But I think they were disappointed in a lot of things that he did, picking wrong holes, leaving some yards on the field, pass pro.
58:05When Dobbins is healthy, and look, I get it.
58:07People see the games played and the seasons missed.
58:10And so it's hard to know that you're getting a chunk of games with Dobbins, but every running back is an injury risk.
58:17And I realize we run incredibly lucky league, excuse me, pardon me, league wide with injury rates the last couple of years.
58:23But anybody can get hurt. Dobbins is, the fact that he's going after Harvey is comically wrong, if you ask me.
58:29And you mentioned a great idea of how am I going to utilize Dobbins?
58:34How does he fit in? I mean, if you are putting running back on the back burner with a hero or zero
58:40build, he's a great way to catch up. But even if I have a robust room and even what I'm going to
58:46do, if I start with running back, running back.
58:49One of my drafts I really liked, I started with Jonathan Taylor around 109, 110.
58:54At 110, I came back with James Cook. And then boom, five receivers.
58:57Let's catch up there. I love a guy like Corum, a guy like Dobbins.
59:01When I'm starting to catch up again at running back, J.K.
59:05Dobbins is mispriced. I know he can only be a single or a double, but I want you to target him.
59:11I want you to circle him. I want you to be proactively drafting it to him this season.
59:16There you go. That's the way to do it.
59:19You know, we kind of talked a little bit about the quarterback position, Scott.
59:23You know, it sounds like you're, you know, you're definitely in the school of, hey, I'm not going to be drafting one of those early guys.
59:31I'm going to take my first quarterback, you know, I don't know, maybe around eight, nine, 10, something like that.
59:36Is that fair to say? I'm waiting. If I like the prices on the Williams, Herbert, Lawrence, Prescott tier, I'll be in.
59:43If they get pushed up, I can back down to Knicks or to Stafford, Goff.
59:47We talked about those guys. Maybe. Dart makes me nervous.
59:50I think Dart's going to get hurt. I hate saying that, but there's a recklessness to his game.
59:55I also wish he was more skilled as a passer, and I am very nervous about Neighbors.
60:00Neighbors is probably the best player who I'm fading of the first two or three rounds.
60:05I won't draft him at his perceived ceiling. The idea that Neighbors is scary because people see how he can win the
60:12league for you, but I'm just worried about what the downside of him is, and I'm still not sure how good Dart really is.
60:19Dart and Neighbors hardly get to play last year at all, and I'm not sure they had any overlap.
60:24So nervous with that Giants situation. But quarterback, I'm not taking any of the first five guys or first six guys, I
60:31guess, if you include Hurts in that conversation. I like the Knicks four or five proactively, but if I'm in a room
60:37where they get pushed up and I have to live, even going down to guys like Jordan Love, Shuck, I play in a lot of Superflex.
60:45I'll probably look for a B-plus and a B-minus quarterback to pair together, or two Bs or something like that.
60:51That's the way I'm playing this position this year.
60:53Yeah, that sounds very similar to how I'm doing it too.
60:57So I think we're on the same boat there.
60:59Herbert too. I didn't mention Herbert. I know it's too convenient, but Mike McDaniel is kind of at the end of field coach, still a smart coordinator.
61:07Their offensive line blew up right away, and I realize there's already been some injuries with the line this summer, but with Slater, hopefully he can stay healthy.
61:15But that offense has so much upside. I'm a pro-McConkie guy.
61:19Not everybody is. I can't unsee how dynamic he was in the second half of his rookie season, where he performed at a 1,500 pace.
61:26It was dynamic in the playoffs. I give him a total pass for last year.
61:30I think Herbert still has MVP sleeper candidate attached to him.
61:33Hampton's been drafted really aggressively, so I haven't been getting Hampton, but at least I understand where that's coming from.
61:39Johnson is maybe more productive than he is good, but he's not a bad player.
61:44They have tight ends who are talented. He did.
61:46Just because it's the helium, just because it's the overwhelming consensus, people are like, oh, the public's always wrong.
61:52That's not true. The public's right. The wisdom of crowds is right an awful lot.
61:56I mean, one reason why the public always loses at things like sports gambling is the house takes a cut.
62:02It takes a rake, and you have to be right more than that reasonable amount of time to win at those things.
62:09But I think getting the Chargers right is really important, and Herbert's going to be part of my strategy, and McConkie's going to be part of my strategy.
62:17Yeah, I think it's a great way to go.
62:20I'm in on McConkie. I think he's pretty fairly priced at this point.
62:23Me too. You know, so... There are plenty of people who don't like McConkie.
62:27I thought he was going to be like a screaming, everybody loves him, he rises around guy.
62:32He has not been that at all. He's almost like a polarizing player at this point.
62:37Yeah, he really has become that. Yeah, I'm with you because I thought, you know, again, he was going to be one
62:44of those guys who, you know, all of a sudden started, you know, steaming up to the second round, and it just really hasn't happened that way.
62:52You know, there's a lot of... You know, you can put, you know, Flowers, McConkie, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Waddell, throw T.
62:58Higgins in there if you want to. You know, all those guys are just kind of going in a big mix master
63:04where, you know, they can really go in any order in any draft.
63:08And I think that's a good range for them to be in.
63:12You know, I think there's still a little bit of room for profit, you know, and that's an important thing to do
63:18in your leagues is, you know, you want to draft good players, but you want to make sure that there's also room
63:24for profit once you get out of the first couple rounds.
63:28I mean, the first couple rounds, it's hard to say there's a lot of room for profit for most of these guys.
63:34I mean, you know, you're spending a first-round pick on a guy.
63:38You know, how much better than, you know, fourth overall pick can he do?
63:42You know, those guys have almost all downside, no upside.
63:45You know, like you said earlier, you're just concerned about, I don't want to make a big mistake here.
63:50I just want to, you know, I want to hold serve and get into the mid-round.
63:55And then that's where I want to start making profit.
63:58And be drafting guys where there is room for that, I think, is the most important thing.
64:03Very well said. Let me ask you a question that I would ask anybody smart.
64:07I'm starting to lose my footing on this a little bit.
64:11So last year I said I would follow Kevin O'Connell into a burning building.
64:15And everything burned down in Minnesota. And so my original thought is, you know, Occam's razor.
64:19The simplest explanation is often correct. It's all J.J.
64:22McCarthy's fault. J.J. McCarthy can't play. They've realized it.
64:25They've recognized it. I was so out on Kyler Murray the last couple of years.
64:29Mike Celfino and I would often say, you know, he's not getting any taller.
64:33He doesn't see a lot of those throws in the middle of the field.
64:37But then I'm like, well, maybe Arizona's just a sinking ship.
64:40And I realized Brissette had some garbage time, two months of glory and all that.
64:45But maybe Murray just needed to be with a better team, better coaching, and just a fresh start.
64:50And so I was like, okay, great. I'm ready to be in on Kyler Murray.
64:55Now he's cheap and kind of speculative. And yet I realize it's hard to know what's going on in practice.
65:00The teams don't get the same access. We get single videos percolate out or one person tweets something.
65:06And we all have to over extrapolate it. And that can be a very dangerous game.
65:10But I feel like everything I hear about Murray is bad, is negative.
65:14The only thing I can say about him is I know he's better than J.J.
65:19McCarthy. But I was prepared a month ago, two months ago, to be like, well, O'Connell will fix this.
65:24Jefferson, Addison, how can you go wrong with guys like that?
65:27And now I'm like, I don't know who Kyler Murray is.
65:31I don't believe that's really a battle. I think that Murray has the job.
65:35Unless he absolutely throws up all over himself and like J.J.
65:38found something. That's not going to happen. But I was going to be proactive about this passing game.
65:43Now I'm getting cold feet. What say you? Yeah, I have had a hard time buying into Kyler Murray as well.
65:49And I'm with you on O'Connell. I think O'Connell is a great coach.
65:53Fantastic. You know, without a doubt, I really, really hope that, you know, even if the season goes sideways for the Vikings,
66:00that they keep him and realize, you know, that he's had really tough situations to work with.
66:05And that, to me, is the main thing. I mean, you know, the J.J.
66:09McCarthy thing, you know, I will fully admit I was all in on J.J.
66:13McCarthy last year because, you know, O'Connell was talking him up.
66:16And I'm like, you know, I trust O'Connell. I think he's a great coach.
66:20You know, look what he did with, you know, the collection of garbage that he had at quarterback.
66:26Unbelievable. Not to give thanks to these guys' mothers or anything.
66:29But, you know, it was just, it was amazing what he did in 2024, you know, with just a terrible quarterback situation
66:35and still somehow managed smoke and mirrors to, you know, put together offenses that were running on schedule and everything else.
66:41I'm like, you know, if he can do that with them, J.J.
66:45McCarthy, how can he possibly be worse than these guys?
66:48Well, I guess we found out. And especially, I was thinking with O'Connell, you know, talking up McCarthy the way he was
66:54in the preseason all this past year, you know, and this is where it kind of comes down to, you know, well,
67:01okay, I got to realize that O'Connell's like every other coach.
67:04You know, coaches lie and liars coach. So, you know, they're not always going to be up front.
67:09I'm sure behind the scenes, it sounds like he was very frustrated with the situation.
67:14At least that's how it's been spun now. And, you know, Questy was the fall guy.
67:18You know, the general manager takes the fall for making the pick.
67:22That and a few others that were not so good.
67:25But now we're in this situation where it's like, okay, well, you know, the Vikings are looking around for a quarterback.
67:31Kyler Murray comes to them as a gift because the Vikings were in bad salary cap situation as well.
67:37And, you know, here's a guy that they can get on a minimum contract because Arizona is paying so much money.
67:43So, you know, they can just get in. Kyler Murray, he's a guy, you know, who has had success in the league, all that kind of stuff.
67:51But like you and Mike say, he's not getting any taller.
67:54We know that. And also, I don't think he's getting any less injury prone.
67:58I mean, you know, the odds to me of Kyler Murray playing 17 games this year are not very good at all.
68:04You know, and the odds of J.J. McCarthy becoming a quality quarterback, also not very good, I think.
68:10You know, can he get good enough that maybe Kevin O'Connell can do something with him this year?
68:15Maybe. I mean, you know, to me, it's like I find myself going, well, at least they have Carson Wentz, right?
68:21That's not a great position to be in, especially when you're hoping your coach can...
68:26Does Carson Wentz have a Joe Flacco season in him?
68:28I wonder. He could. I mean, I wouldn't put it beyond him.
68:32I think if something happens to Kyler Murray, whether it's he doesn't perform well or he doesn't run the offense the way,
68:38you know, O'Connell wants it run or he gets hurt or whatever, you know, I think it's going to really come down to what has J.J.
68:46McCarthy been showing them in practice? If he's been showing them enough where they can say, well, you know what, let's throw him out there.
68:53Let's see how he does with live bullets around him for a game or two.
68:58They might do that. But if he hasn't been doing good, I think they're just going to go straight to Carson Wentz.
69:04Carson Wentz was the MVP elect one year before he got hurt, the year that the Eagles famously won the Super Bowl, Philly Special and all that.
69:12It's not like he can't play. Let me ask you this.
69:15I'm totally cutting you off. Let me ask you this.
69:18So if people are listening and thinking, okay, you know, I wasn't sure about Murray.
69:23Maybe I'm out on Murray. We still care about this quarterback chair because we have to take stances on Jefferson.
69:29We have to take stances on Addison. We have to take stances on the backfield.
69:33So even if we just say, look, I'm not drafted a Vikings quarterback.
69:37Murray, not getting taller, too much baggage with Arizona.
69:40It doesn't seem he's onboarding that smoothly. I'm not going to believe in this miracle comeback from McCarthy.
69:45I mean, even a guy like Wentz, he's third on the depth chart right now.
69:49I'll believe that when I see it. Although, again, it's a good guy to have.
69:54I'm sure they're glad they have him in the room.
69:57And I would at least give him a chance because I've seen Nick Mullins do it.
70:01But I've seen some of the guys that miracles have happened with O'Connell.
70:05And I still believe in Kevin O'Connell. But when it comes time to make that Jefferson pick, to make that Addison pick,
70:11I don't know if you like either one of these backs here.
70:15How does that spillover affect the wide receiver and running back guys we're considering in Minnesota?
70:20I mean, you know, okay. So, J.J. McCarthy in his last year proved that Justin Jefferson was a quarterback proof.
70:26I do think some of that was the fact that Jefferson had a hamstring injury through most of the training camp.
70:32They just had a hard time getting on the same page.
70:35And McCarthy, weirdly enough, was the most comfortable it looked like throwing to Naylor.
70:39You know, and so that's what he did a lot during games.
70:43It just seemed like him and Jefferson weren't on the same page at all.
70:47You know, throws sailing high, throws skipping low. You know, some of that is just McCarthy getting excited and, you know, not releasing the ball right.
70:54You know, not layering his passes. All that kind of stuff.
70:58But I think Kyler is going to be able to do, you know, he's going to make the kind of throws he needs to make.
71:05I'm not that worried about Justin Jefferson. He's not somebody that I'm just, like, you know, pounding the table for, even though
71:11he's kind of slipped to the back of the first round, even beginning his second round in some drafts.
71:17You know, I haven't taken a whole lot of him just because of that price.
71:21But, you know, and there's, to me, there's 12 or 13 or even 14 first-round picks this year.
71:27So, if you're coming around the corner first to second round, you know, he's not a guy I really feel like I need to prioritize.
71:34But if he is, you know, if, you know, okay, Chase, Nikua, Jason, Amon Ra, Lamb are all gone.
71:40Do I like Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown? I think I'm probably going Justin Jefferson there still.
71:45You would definitely take London over Jefferson? London? No.
71:47Lamb over Jefferson. Of course, yeah. Yeah, for sure.
71:50You know, we talked about earlier about how we know the right answers already.
71:54We just don't know what's going to happen. It's this case of, what are we going to say in January?
72:00Of course, Justin Jefferson was a league winner. How did you let this guy get to the second round?
72:05Have you forgotten how great he is at football?
72:08They got rid of McCarthy. Everything was fixed. Or, of course, Justin Jefferson let you down in the second round.
72:14Didn't you see that Kevin O'Connell isn't really this magic guy and McCarthy can't play and Kyler Murray was run out of town in Arizona?
72:21And who thought Carson Wentz could fix this? I mean, if you don't have a quarterback, it doesn't matter how great your receiver is.
72:28And we learned that he was not quarterback proof the previous season.
72:32So there you go. We have the answers. We just don't know what the run out is yet.
72:37Exactly that, yeah. When push comes to shove, basically, I really do kind of believe in Kevin O'Connell.
72:42I think that he is a good coach. I think he can get the most out of the quarterback position.
72:48So for those reasons, I'm a lot less worried about the skill players than I am about the actual quarterbacks because I
72:55don't know what kind of a jumble that's going to be.
72:58I just don't see one quarterback starting 17 games for the Vikings this year.
73:02If it ever goes bad with him in Minnesota, he should be one of those guys that every team wants to hire.
73:08Oh, absolutely. And not only that, I'm sure he'll have a network job offered to him.
73:13He's just a great guy to be around, very positive, very smart, always composed.
73:17That stuff matters to me. And his track record speaks for itself.
73:21So I'm still following him into the burning building.
73:23Let's just hope things don't burn down this year.
73:26You and I both, definitely. Quick comment on the backfield.
73:29On the backfield, I'm really into Jordan Mason this year.
73:32I think Aaron Jones, great player, but he's just getting old.
73:35He's losing a little bit of steam. I don't trust him to stay healthy anymore.
73:40And I think DeMond Claiborne is a really interesting late round stab.
73:43I do like making that pick as well. But I think Jordan Mason, it seems like they're tailoring the running game in
73:50a way that's going to fit him very, very well.
73:52And this is a team that, you know what?
73:55If they can get that quarterback position right on a game-by-game basis, however that happens, whether it's Murray, whether it's J.J.
74:01McCarthy, whether it's Wentz, whatever, there's going to be a lot of rushing in the second half with this good defense.
74:07Great defense. They're going to be wanting to salt away leads.
74:11I think there's going to be a potential for them to be able to score a lot more.
74:16Last year, the problem was the Vikings would go three and out, or maybe they'd convert one first down and then three and out after that.
74:24And as a running back, it's hard to get that many carries when you're constantly turning the ball over, giving it to the other team.
74:31What they did on defense, Brian Flores having great coordinators, they were so smart to retain him.
74:36They allow 121 yards to the Packers, 231 to Detroit, 141 to the Giants.
74:40Dallas did get them pretty good, but 206 to the Commanders, 219 to Seattle.
74:44I mean, this defense was, granted, they lost to Seattle games.
74:47They couldn't do anything on offense, but this defense was fantastic.
74:51I love any time you can take a former head coach and get him back to his coordinator roots like Brian Flores, like Josh McDaniels, like Mike McDaniel.
74:59And this goes back to guys like Wade Phillips, right?
75:02You loved him as coordinator, maybe didn't love him as a head coach.
75:06Such a smart thing. Whatever they're paying Brian Flores, it isn't enough.
75:09Yeah, yeah, totally agree. I've been amazed that they've been able to hang on to him.
75:14And sadly, probably the reason is because he sued the league.
75:17Right. I don't want to say he's getting good.
75:20Right or wrongly, it's affected his marketability to get a head coaching job.
75:23I hope he gets another chance. I thought he did a good job in Miami with a team where the ownership is bad.
75:30When's the last time they won a playoff game, like 25 years ago or something like that?
75:35I mean, I'm a pro Flores guy, but there's probably a lot of reasons why people don't want to touch that as maybe the face of their franchise.
75:43I'm not saying it's right at all, because again, I believe in Flores.
75:47And if I had an opening, he'd be one of the first guys I'd talk to.
75:52Yeah, exactly. Well, I feel like with O'Connell and Flores, they're both coaches kind of like Mike Tomlin.
75:57Back when we had Brad Childress as head coach and Mike Tomlin was his defensive coordinator.
76:02You know, at the end of the season, and it was pretty clear that Tomlin was going to end up leaving somewhere to be a head coach.
76:10I was like, just fire Childress, hire Tomlin. I don't care that Childress actually had a pretty good season.
76:15Tomlin is the future here. Childress is a guy who just happened to take a good roster and managed to do just
76:22enough with it to make the playoffs and then get bounced.
76:25You know, this is the guy you want is Tomlin.
76:28And of course, they hung on to Childress. Tomlin goes to the Steelers.
76:32We all know how that story went. I was always pro Tomlin, even at the end, where it's just crazy how they
76:38never had the losing season, but they were getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
76:43He was 0-6 in his last six playoff games.
76:46So sometimes I think great is the enemy of good.
76:49Mike Tomlin was always a plus answer. And again, he's a guy, you know, the moment he was available and I realized
76:55he's going to take a year off and all that, the moment John Harbaugh was available.
77:00It just, coaches aren't meant to last forever. Pittsburgh's run incredibly fortunate with the Null to Cowher to Tomlin handoff.
77:06You don't get that. Just like the Packers, incredibly fortunate to have Favre to Rodgers.
77:10And now Jordan Love's a good player. He isn't quite on that level yet.
77:14We'll see if he ever gets there. But they haven't had to live like most teams live where you have problems and
77:21you're not sure about things and there's unsettling questions you have to ask yourself and all that.
77:26But I was always a Tomlin guy. I would be, I know, realize he's in his 50s now and some people want
77:32the younger coach, but I've always said that he's the right answer.
77:36And I think he should be high up on everybody's list when the coaching cycle starts again in January.
77:41Yeah, absolutely. You know, you said sometimes great's the enemy of the good.
77:45I think a little bit with Tomlin, good was the enemy of the great because, you know, he kept finding a way
77:52to make them just good enough that they never really did a full reset.
77:56And, you know, it's basically he kept taking this roster that had sort of just enough talent to hang around and he
78:02could make them, you know, make them play well enough, coach them up enough that, you know, they were making the playoffs.
78:09So there was never that urgency to change that probably needed to be there.
78:13And I don't mean change coaches. I mean, you know, like change the players.
78:17You know, they needed a reset talent-wise because he was getting the maximum that he could out of, you know, I think most every player on that roster.
78:25And it was just good enough to go, you know, nine and eight and lose a playoff game.
78:30Okay. Trivia question. The last year the Steelers had a losing record.
78:34Who was their quarterback? Cordell Stewart? It's not Cordell Stewart.
78:37Okay. Ah, you got me on this one. I'm going to add.
78:40Tommy Maddox. Ah, there we go. The 2003 Steelers with a quarterback room of Tommy Maddox, Josh Miller and Charlie Batch.
78:47They also had Antoine Randall-El, who, of course, was a converted quarterback.
78:50Hines Ward, Jerome Bettis, Plexiguris, Amos Zerway, Jay Rehmers, Chris Doering.
78:53They went 6-10 and 0. And the next year they went 15-1.
78:57Yeah. So, yeah. Kyle got that figured out. But that was the last Steelers losing team in 2003.
79:02Also, a cool trivia question to ask. I stumped a couple people with this one.
79:07What's the only current NFL team that's never won its division?
79:10Let me be clear about this. The division that they're currently in.
79:13I'm not saying they never won a division, but the division that they're currently in.
79:18I think the Cardinals have won their division, haven't they?
79:21It's not the Cardinals. Okay. All right. I don't want to keep our audience...
79:25For sure. It's the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland Browns, yeah.
79:27Their last division. And when I first heard that, I thought, that's not right.
79:31They've won divisions. But the thing is, when they won the division, it was the AFC Central back in 1989.
79:37And even then, that's been a long time. But since they've been part of the AFC North, they've never won the division.
79:44And, of course, had a slew of bad teams, a slew of wrong answers at quarterback.
79:48Segway. Because they have such a clown car at quarterback.
79:51Harold Fannin Jr. blew me away with how talented he was, how fun he was.
79:56But he's tied to whatever's left of Watson, whatever they get from Sanders.
80:00I think Dylan Gabriel may start some games. Is Fannin going to survive this?
80:04Is it can Junkin survive it? I just think this team has...
80:07The defense will fight the good fight. They obviously made the trade they had to make, I feel like, to reboot.
80:13So they lose the best player in the NFL on defense and Miles Garrett.
80:18But this is going to be a quasi-competitive but incredibly boring, low-ceiling offense of 5-12, 4-13.
80:22I wish they'd go back to 16 games, by the way.
80:25Can Harold Fannin survive the horribleness at quarterback? And also a better receiver room, too.
80:30Yeah, I think the better receiver room is probably the thing that makes it a little bit tougher.
80:35He's survived poor quarterback play last year. So I think just the fact that you've got Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion in that
80:42receiver room, and it sounds like Boston is really ripping up camp, and Concepcion looks really, really good, too.
80:47And if they've got three competent receivers all of a sudden, those two and Fannin, that's going to make it a lot
80:54tougher on Fannin because he was basically getting by on volume last year, just stacking up all those receptions and garbage time and everything else.
81:01Got some touchdowns. But when you have a bunch of other receivers that suddenly can start eating into those reception totals and the targets, basically.
81:08I think Fannin can probably still get to 100 targets, but I think he's...
81:12And if you get a tight end who gets to 100 targets, they're going to be a reasonably good pick.
81:18And where he's going in drafts I don't think is any sort of a problem or anything like that.
81:24I just... You know, people are thinking, oh, Harold Fannin is going to be a league winner this year because he's going to build on last year.
81:32I just don't see it. I think it might be a step back before a step forward this year.
81:37I feel like second-year players are often kind of fantasy traps.
81:41We saw last year the receiver class collectively had a horrible second year.
81:44And I'm almost ready to go back to the old-school way of drafting receivers, which is ignore the rookie year, ignore the
81:51second year, take them in year three. Is there a rookie receiver this year that you're focused on or you're drafting overweight?
81:57I mean, did the Titans go over slot because they needed a receiver so bad and take a player in Tate who may be more good than grade?
82:06Are you buying Tyson right away with the Saints?
82:08Kellen Moore looks like a right answer. At least Shuck can be competitive.
82:12Tell me about some of these. You talked about the Cleveland rookies.
82:16Talk about the receiver rookie class. Yeah, I think it's a decent receiver rookie class.
82:20I know a lot of people were disappointed with it.
82:23I think Tyson is really good. I like Lemon as a prospect.
82:26I'm a little bit less certain that he's going to fire right away.
82:30That screams out slow on board to me. Man, there's a guy I'm definitely fading, and not with any joy.
82:36I just can't see that happening right away. Right, exactly.
82:39But Tyson, I think, is a really nice fit for New Orleans.
82:43I really like that. But Tate, everybody had him as a consensus number one.
82:47I really kind of think fantasy-wise, Tyson might end up being the more right answer.
82:51Maybe I'm wrong there. Maybe Tate is a lot more than what he was at Ohio State.
82:56But he was not a guy who commanded a huge ton of volume or anything like that.
83:01He's a guy who made great-looking plays. But you've got to have that volume as well.
83:06Wondell Robinson is going to lead that team in catches, right?
83:09Oh, yeah, yeah, for sure. Definitely. I think he's been mispriced the entire season.
83:13Yeah. So Wondell Robinson will never be great. That's okay.
83:16Let him be good and catch 85 balls. Right, exactly.
83:19And he'll be that guy who you can always throw into your flex, but you're never going to feel great about starting.
83:25You know, it's just there are players like that for sure.
83:29So, you know, we've got to do what we can do on that.
83:32All right. Well, Scott, I always try to keep my shows down to an hour.
83:37And I knew we were going to go long because we always do.
83:41But we will let you get out of here.
83:43I know you've probably got things going on. I'm going to have – I've actually got another show coming up.
83:49I'm going to be doing the Fantasy Empire. We're doing a draft in the NFFC Football Guys contest in about a half
83:56an hour or so, which is going to be a lot of fun, too.
84:00So if you've been watching this stream, you can make sure you follow me over there.
84:04You'll see all the stuff you need to see on X or you can just look up Fantasy Empire on YouTube and you can watch the stream there.
84:13But I appreciate you joining me today, Scott. Again, remind people where you're at, how to find your work, what you're doing, and let's go from there.
84:21Thanks so much for having me. It was a blast.
84:23That's Scott underscore Pianowski on Twitter X, Pianow, P-I-A-N-O-W on Boosky.
84:27I spend time on both of those platforms. My work is at Yahoo Sports.
84:31Proud to be there. A bunch of it is free.
84:34There is some of it that is premium this year.
84:37I'll be occasionally on the Fantasy Football Forecast with Matt Harmon.
84:40I'm doing the Sunday shows in August. I'll have occasional appearances during the season.
84:44And we're still doing the Breakfast Table podcast with Michael Salfino.
84:47We're running through our seasonal preview. Some of the stuff will be free.
84:51Some of the stuff will be behind the paywall.
84:54But at least you can get a free sample of it, see if you like it or not.
84:59But, man, if you just want to talk to me about anything, football, music, life, did your kid just score a goal in soccer?
85:06It doesn't matter. Show me a picture of your dog.
85:09Catch me on the socials. I'm a human being.
85:12I'd love to talk to you. And if you're a friend of Dan Williamson's, you're a better fantasy player, but you're also a friend of mine.
85:19There you go. Appreciate it, Scott. And for my audience, thank you for watching and listening.
85:24Make sure you hit the Like button. It's free.
85:27It's easy to do. If you can, leave us a review wherever you're consuming the show and keep tuning in.
85:32We have Dwayne McFarlane and the boss here at Player Profiler, Matt Kelly, are on the docket.
85:37So good. What guess, man. When you went to the ad and had Kelly read the promo, I thought, you know, I'd
85:44like to be in life just once as convicted and as confident and as you need to do this, as Matt Kelly always sounds.
85:51And, man, he is a really, really smart guy.
85:54And McFarlane's as good as it gets with the stuff that he does.
85:57And so, you know, if you can excuse Dan having me on the show today, he's got some awesome guests coming up.
86:04No, no, no. Yeah. You're the one I've been looking forward to having for well over a month.
86:09As soon as I decided I was doing the Dominator, I'm like, okay.
86:13You know, I reached out to you right away.
86:16I'm like, all right, Scott, I'm going to have this podcast.
86:19We got to do it. But, you know, so I just had to wait for you to kind of start turning your
86:25attention a little bit from baseball and, you know, back over to football because you're one of those multi-sport guys.
86:31How you keep all that in your head, I have no idea because, you know what, just trying to keep all the
86:38football players straight is hard enough for me these days, especially the older I get.
86:42So, you know, kudos to you for probably having, you know, at least a couple thousand, you know, current players in your
86:48head as well as, you know, gosh, 40 years of history or more.
86:52So, yeah. I know you want to wrap this up.
86:55I'm going to ask you one more question. Okay.
86:58All right. I swear this is it. I realized today I had Cyrus Allen way too low on my rankings.
87:04I didn't move him up that much. He's like in the 80s at receiver, but is he somebody, you know, like, late round click for you?
87:11Are you buying any of the buzz that's coming out of camp with him?
87:15Yeah, he's a late round click. He's definitely worth, you know, taking a speculative add on, especially in redraft leagues where, you
87:22know, if he doesn't work out after three or four weeks or, you know, we're just not seeing the signs or whatever,
87:28we can, you know, just drop him and move on.
87:31I think it's a, you know, it's a little bit tougher in best ball.
87:35But again, if you're talking, you know, like a big contest league, you know, having some Cyrus Allen might be important there as well.
87:42I mean, you know, it's a team that I'd like to be able to buy into.
87:47You know, we don't have time to talk about what all is wrong with the Chiefs these days.
87:52But, you know, it's a team that you have some hope that with that quarterback and that head coach, they can get back to being an explosive offense.
88:01And, you know, if Cyrus Allen is part of that, I definitely want in on that as well.
88:06I mostly agree with you. Although I wonder, the Chiefs have been a Toyota and not a Maserati for a couple of years.
88:13I've gotten past the idea that just Mahomes and Andy Reid is going to overwhelm everything and be great because I've seen it not be great.
88:20I realize there's been a lot of mitigating factors, which is the way the NFL works.
88:25It's a success and failure. Both have many parents.
88:28So I'm not willing to automatically give the Chiefs infrastructure the benefit of the doubt.
88:32But still, Allen, I think, is an excellent late round pick.
88:35Yep, definitely. All right, Scott. Well, we'll get you out of here.
88:39Again, for the rest of the audience, make sure you're subscribed to the Player Profiler Network on YouTube and your podcast provider.
88:45You don't want to miss a single show. We've got great stuff going for you.
88:50That's it for today. So until next week, get out there and dominate your drafts.
88:54All right. All right. All right. All right. Thank you.
