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0:54What's up everyone? Welcome into the Dear Miss Fantasy.
0:57With me, your host, Tara Roberts. This is the official mailbag show for Player Profiler.
1:02It is Wednesday, July 22nd and we are heading full speed ahead into draft season here.
1:07For a redraft. And it is training camp week.
1:10Everyone is arriving this week for the most part.
1:13There's some that I do think are going to straggle next week.
1:17But for the most part, we've got training camp starting here.
1:20So very exciting. No massive training camp news other than like, you know, Zach Charbonnet going on the PUP.
1:26That's expected. That does not necessarily mean that he won't be ready for week one.
1:31But realistically, a lot of guys that are dealing with injuries are probably going to be put on the PUP immediately just because that often happens.
1:40Although, again, that does not necessarily mean that they will be on the PUP to start the season.
1:45But it is something for us to keep an eye on for sure, because that is massive for Jadarian Price, right?
1:52Because Seattle has been trying to be very optimistic about the potential return here of Zach Charbonnet coming earlier than expected.
1:59So, again, really good one for us to monitor here with him because that massively affects that value there for Jadarion Price,
2:06who is a good value if Charbonnet does miss significant time or even just kind of like, you know, six weeks or so.
2:13Just to kind of establish himself as the theoretical lead back there would be good value in fantasy drafts.
2:20But it does remain a wee bit risky. But that's one for us to monitor as well.
2:25Jumping in here before I do, guys, because I see comments right off the bat here.
2:30Sorry if I sound like I'm out of breath.
2:33I am slightly. I was kind of running around a little bit.
2:37Then I came in here and started the show.
2:40I should have taken a deep breath, but it's OK.
2:43We're all good. I'm starting off here before I dive into the comments.
2:47The topic for today's show is going to be running back draft strategy because I've been noticing a lot more running back comments.
2:55Now, granted, I do a lot of content that talks about running backs because obviously that is one of the big ticket items.
3:02That is one of the ones that is most stressful for us as drafters to nail there, particularly with our early round picks.
3:09So a lot of comments around running back. So I thought I would talk running back strategies, tiers, cliffs, must have running backs, all that good stuff.
3:18And then right off the bat here before I even got in, we have a comment here from Slim Reaper X.
3:25Oh, it's a dynasty question. So let's go ahead and get started off with that one.
3:30That'll be good here. Dynasty question here. 16 team dynasty super flex just traded away Waddle for Adams, a 2027 pick swap,
3:37a 28 second and a 29 first. All from this year's one of the one team feeling a little bit iffy about it now thoughts.
3:45And then adds in some more information, right? In terms of comments here that he is projected to be the number two
3:52team this year for some more context. And then added in a secondary follow-up question to that one.
3:58They've got Chase Brown, Ramondre Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Chris Rodriguez, Joe Mixon, Washington.
4:02Which Washington? And do I pair with Stevenson? Do I pair Stevenson with a pick to trade up at running back two or let it play out?
4:11Strong contender. Thanks. All right, let's address the Waddle one first because Waddle, it's a little bit of a very divided kind
4:18of camp here in terms of how people feel about Waddle's arrival in Denver.
4:23I see a lot of positive people that are thrilled thinking that he's immediately taken over wide receiver one.
4:29Really going to be that, you know, big field stretcher that they need there that Bo Nix is going to absolutely love him.
4:36Smash opportunity for him. Yay. And then there's the other side there that is kind of more my side that looks at
4:43that Broncos wide receiver room and what we went through last year and says, OK, well, we've got some problems here in
4:50terms of the fact that this is an extremely crowded, extremely deep room here.
4:55And the one thing that I've noticed in terms of arguments being made for Waddle and his fit there in Denver is
5:02that the positive side is that we do have a change in offensive coordinator, which is good.
5:07Positive all around, no change or no negatives there about the switch.
5:11Davis Webb should be a more productive offense, because when you look at the Broncos offense last season, they could have been a lot more efficient.
5:20Tons of passes. Right. And that's also something that I want to note as well.
5:24I would not expect a massive uptick in volume because they already threw the ball significantly well over league average towards the
5:32top there in terms of pass attempts in general.
5:34So I wouldn't look at this as a big increase in targets with the change in offensive coordinator, rather an increase in efficiency opportunity to get more touchdowns.
5:43Right. So if we're looking at it from that context and saying there's not a whole bunch more targets that can be found in this offense.
5:52Right. Because there's only so much you can physically throw the ball, especially when you do have a good defense.
5:58Right. But again, they were already pass happy to begin with.
6:02They just weren't very productive with it. So if we're not increasing targets.
6:06Right. That means we have not and we haven't lost any of the receivers there.
6:11They're all still there. Although I do think that we're going to see a clear shift in the pecking order to where
6:18a guy like Troy Franklin will shift down and we'll see the subsequent shift down of Pat Bryant and such.
6:24But when we're looking at there not being a massive increase in targets.
6:29Right. And potentially a massive increase in touchdowns. You have to ask yourself, are we really sure that all these increase in
6:36touchdowns and touches are really going to go specifically to Jalen Waddle?
6:40Because the most glaring thing to me is that Waddle is the one player in that offense that is not six to an hour.
6:47Right. It's a it's good. Like it rounds out the receiving core perfectly.
6:51So this was a great move for Denver. I like them in terms of increasing their odds as a Super Bowl contender this year for sure.
7:00But in terms of that being the best fantasy opportunity there, I question it, especially once we get towards the red zone.
7:07And I still think we see more of those targets go towards guys like Cortland Sutton.
7:12So while it is not a terrible opportunity, I think that you made a strong move here.
7:18Right. Because at the end of the day, while we did see the, you know, this hamstring started hamstring in there for Devante Adams last year.
7:26You have upgraded to someone who if he is on the field and Waddle has his question marks about, you know, being on the field as well.
7:35So that is also one thing to consider. But Devante Adams on the field has so much more upside than Jalen Waddle
7:42in the context of the two offenses that they are in with the L.A.
7:46Rams operating at their optimal level or even like slightly suboptimal.
7:50Right. Because the touchdowns were rapidly looking at Devante Adams last year.
7:54I mean, the red zone target rate for him was absolutely ridiculous.
7:58Matt Stafford got to the red zone and he wanted Devante Adams.
8:01Right. They weren't super efficient in terms of the connections that they made in the red zone, but that was the clear target for him.
8:09So apples to apples as a contender. I think that's a fine move.
8:14And the fact that you were able to get what I deemed, let me put the comment back up here for you
8:21guys in terms of the pick swap, you being the better team, the second for 2028 and the first from 2029.
8:27I think you did excellent. Right. So I love this trade for you as a contender.
8:33I think it's a great move there. And even from a rebuilding perspective, if someone were to do this from a rebuilding
8:40perspective, obviously getting Adam Adams is not ideal, but still the number of picks.
8:44I think it was a solid move as well.
8:47So covers you for the future and allows you to contend right now.
8:51So I like this trade for you. Second part of it there for you.
8:56You've got Chase Brown, Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Chris Rodriguez, Mixon.
8:59And do you pair it with do you pair Stevenson with a pick to trade up at RB2 or let it play out?
9:06I think you do. Because, again, you've got those extra picks there.
9:10So you've got flexibility. I would take that pair that and try to trade up there because there's you know, there's the promise.
9:18Right. I'm optimistic about if Jonathan Brooks is able to stay on the field, but we don't have a lot of evidence of that.
9:25Right. Chris Rodriguez, in my opinion, I'm more on the Basial Tootin side.
9:30But even then, so if he is able to get the goal line touches and early down touches over Basial Tootin, he
9:37will never have those passing down touches. So that automatically caps his upside.
9:41So Joe Mixon, I fear, is never coming back.
9:44So at the end of the day, oh, and Washington, you might, Mike Washington, that's what you mean.
9:50Mike Washington on that one would be my guess there, which is, again, you know, excellent handcuff potential there, but not a starting running back.
9:58So, yeah, I would absolutely make that move. And I think that would round out your room very nice to get a solid RB2.
10:05Chase Brown is your RB1. And then you've got some multiple potentials there for sure.
10:10So I like that. Good thinking. Jump to the comments here.
10:14Eazy E says, hi, Tara. Just stopping by to see how everything's going and catch up with you another day.
10:20Thank you. Appreciate you stopping by to say hey and always see your comments in my videos.
10:26So thank you so much for joining in. Shout out to John in the chat saying hi there.
10:32And then says, which rookie running backs are worth targeting in Dynasty?
10:35Very good question there. You know. Well, DeMond Claiborne's on my mind right now.
10:40And that's probably because I was looking at tweets earlier today, and that was one of the ones that I was looking
10:47at, that there's a lot of positive feedback around DeMond Claiborne there in Minnesota.
10:51That was one that I would say I might have gotten him on at least one, maybe two of my Dynasty teams.
10:59I think I think I probably got two right.
11:01That was one that I found interesting in terms of a target, because at the end of the day, when we look
11:09at that Minnesota running back room, I was shocked that they did not upgrade at running back.
11:14It's been it was a weird class. Right. But it was a really good free agency class.
11:20So I found it peculiar. They didn't try to make any moves, knowing that the running back room was not effective last
11:27season, knowing that Aaron Jones is God love him on his last leg.
11:31Unfortunately, and I struggle to see where you can put significant volume on him.
11:35It would have to, in my opinion, it is going to operate similar to what we saw at the beginning of last
11:42season, where we did see a lot of Jordan, Jordan, Jordan Mason there as well.
11:47Early downward goal line work and then obviously some work on the ground, but change of pace there in terms of receiving downs for Aaron Jones.
11:56And when you're looking at it from that perspective, DeMond Claiborne makes a lot of sense because if Aaron Jones were to
12:03go down, they would need somebody to replace that role.
12:06And Claiborne physically would be a direct replacement for that.
12:09So he could have the ability to not even he wouldn't have to overtake Jordan Mason as much as he would just
12:16need Aaron Jones to go down, which, you know, statistically does seem like that would be in line for this year, given
12:23the age and what we saw last year. So if he goes down, steps into that opportunity, you would get an automatic role right there.
12:31So that's one that I think could see the field this year fairly quickly that I would target for sure in Dynasty.
12:38Obviously, you know, the high end option would be Jadarian Price there.
12:42But other sneaky options. I'm not hearing as much buzz about Catron Allen in Washington as I would have expected to get
12:49a little bit more out of him. I think I would probably maybe lean the Jonah Coleman direction as another back to target, you know, because obviously J.K.
12:58Dobbins has a timeline in terms of his ability to make it through the season.
13:03We saw the inefficiencies of R.J. Harvey last season.
13:06So naturally, we've heard a lot of positive stuff around Jonah Coleman.
13:10So I do think naturally the possibility of him creeping in there and gaining significant work is worth a stab there.
13:17So those would be my three off the top of my head that I would prefer.
13:22Yeah. Slim Raver says that Javier Mixon is done as well.
13:26I do, too. That is top 10. That will go down as one of the weirdest situations ever.
13:31The disappearance of Joe Mixon. The ambiguity of his injury be the zero return kind of side.
13:37So like this is one of the weirdest situations ever.
13:40Right. Henry Odom in the chat says when it comes to running back, the motto is follow the money.
13:46How do you view ET or how do you view ETN as a RB1 or RB2?
13:51So very interesting. When it comes to Travis ETN, I kind of like that we should be actually have the ranking shifted.
13:58Let me check. I have way too many tabs open.
14:02My God. I just wanted to check real quick to see if we've already seen the shift down.
14:07And no, we haven't seen a big shift down.
14:10I thought we would see a budge in the rankings with Alvin Kamara resigning, but people aren't massively reacting.
14:16But I do think as people start to get a little bit more into updating rankings, as we get a little bit
14:23further into training camp, I would suspect we might see Travis ETN drop a little bit more.
14:29Because I think there's a lot of fear. And I'm just going to talk about this from a broad perspective real quick, and then I'll give my opinion.
14:38There's what I'm seeing in terms of when I look throughout social media and content from other people.
14:44Right. There's this inherent fear of Travis ETN's value being decreased by the presence of Alvin Kamara.
14:49Because, you know, a lot of people were thinking that he's going to go off to the wayside, be traded, be cut, something.
14:57Right. So him staying there is automatically thinking, you know, hey, oh my gosh, he's going to get the third down work.
15:04That is going to cap Travis ETN to early down work in an offense that we're not 100% at what level it's going to operate.
15:12It could operate like last season and be productive.
15:15But, again, there were still some kinks to work out in that.
15:19So it's a shakier offense, a running back. We've been relying on goal line touches.
15:23That's never really been a massive bread and butter for him anyways in terms of being a guy that gets 300 touches and, you know, 12 touchdowns.
15:32Like that's not really the Travis ETN mode that we have seen throughout his tenure in the NFL.
15:38Right. It's more, you know, 250 carry range, some goal line touches, a decent receiving work.
15:43Right. And just being very productive and efficient with that receiving work, particularly in Jacksonville.
15:48Right. In the role that he had in the pass game.
15:51So I get the fear of what happens to Travis ETN if Alvin Kamara is present.
15:57But I was kind of operating as if Alvin Kamara was going to be there anyway.
16:02And I wouldn't take the contract adjustment, right, as a sign that they have plans for Alvin Kamara.
16:08Alvin Kamara made it very clear last season that he had zero intention of leaving.
16:12They were not going to be able to trade him because he threatened, literally, if he, word for word, if they tried
16:19to trade him, he would be somewhere sipping pina coladas.
16:23Low key, that's saying you cannot trade me because I will retire.
16:27Right. So he apparently wants to be in New Orleans for life.
16:30And I don't blame him. The food is fantastic.
16:33I mean, who doesn't want to be in New Orleans for life?
16:37And they couldn't cut him. Right. Because contractually would have been very painful for their cap.
16:42So he kind of had to stay on the roster and they did have to adjust the contract.
16:48So I wouldn't really take that contract adjustment as a vote of confidence in any way, shape or form.
16:54He was going to be there by default because he refuses to leave.
16:58I do believe that Travis Etienne is still the lead back.
17:02Now, naturally, there's only so much work he can handle.
17:05So Alvin Kamara would still be logically present in the offense, present in the offense.
17:10But he was not particularly productive last season. He didn't thrive off pass volume and, you know, looking at Kellen Moore's offense.
17:17I mean, he's utilized running backs, obviously, in the past game, more prolific running backs in the past game.
17:23Right. But it's not something that he forces to happen.
17:27Look back at Philadelphia. Obviously, Saquon Barkley, very talented as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
17:32But he didn't force a ton of volume that way.
17:35So I don't necessarily think that there's a massive change in the vision here and that Alvin Kamara is going to be a huge threat.
17:43If for some reason Travis Etienne falls and I'm able to snag him in like the RB20 range, like if he were
17:50to fall after guys like DeAndre Swift, Travion Henderson, maybe even a David Montgomery, I would look at it for sure.
17:57Because at the end of the day, they signed him to be their RB1.
18:02But at the same time, I don't view him as being able to give us trustworthy RB1 production.
18:07So RB1 of that offense, for sure. RB1 production, someone that I would trust to draft as my RB1?
18:14No. Just based off pure volume. Right. So that's the caveat there.
18:17Don't hate him as a pick. I have not been clicking his name, unfortunately.
18:22That was before the Alvin Kamara stuff, because again, I figured Alvin Kamara was going to be there anyway.
18:28So that is my point of view on that one with Travis Etienne.
18:32More RB2, low-end RB2 territory is where I trust him.
18:35But again, he is the lead back of that offense.
18:39Shout out to Sparty D-Buck in the comments there.
18:42Thank you for joining in. And it has the question, are we done with the Dolphins?
18:47Ooh, are we done on the Dolphins? Is there no value besides HN?
18:51Oh, good question. Which is actually perfect, because I was going to talk running backs.
18:56So we'll lead into a discussion around the early round running backs and draft strategy after I answer that in terms of,
19:03is there any other value besides HN? Yeah, I mean, kind of.
19:07Because at the end of the day, they're all late round dart throws.
19:11So it doesn't hurt to try and say, hey, at the end of my draft, I believe that Jalen Tolbert could have a little something.
19:19Or I believe that Malik Washington could have a little something.
19:22Or I, you know, I'm not inspired by any of them.
19:26But in really deep leagues, once I get to the end of the draft, I do say, you know, I'll draft one of these things.
19:34I do think, or, you know, Caleb Douglas, he is the rookie, was overdrafted in my opinion.
19:40But at the end of the day, you know, that was their preference in terms of what they wanted.
19:46But I will say this, we did see Chris Bell will be on the pop to start training camp.
19:52And I have seen people say, you know, Chris Bell is the one that you want to own in this offense.
19:59No, it's not. In Dynasty, yes. In redraft, I find it hard to believe that if we believe this team is going
20:06to be bad and tanking and their knowledge, like acknowledging almost, you know, in the way that they have moved and made
20:13specific moves in terms of contracts and not contracts at certain positions, it does, in fact, look like a tank, right?
20:20So if they're tanking, why would they rush along a rookie who was recovering from an ACL injury?
20:25We're on for that guy. So I like him in Dynasty.
20:29I don't think it's the smartest redraft late round dart throw because maybe if you have a whole bunch of IR spots,
20:36it's a very deep league and you want to throw it on there and see.
20:41But in my opinion, it reads more of a Jamison Williams situation where they're going to use this as a recovery, not rush him along.
20:49You might see him at the end of the season, but not to a degree to where it would be any use to your fantasy team.
20:57So just look elsewhere. And yeah, throw late round darts at any one of those suckers.
21:02Pick your preference, right? Go back and look. There's no clear recommendation for me on that when it's your gut feel in
21:09terms of what you think could be of value in this offense in terms of the receivers.
21:15But yeah, they're late round dart throws. No investment whatsoever into them.
21:19And then when it comes to super flex, obviously I do like Malik Willis from a running perspective, right?
21:25Not going to be a ton of volume. He'll be theoretically should be super efficient because that's what we saw in Green Bay.
21:32But the rushing upside is what we would like to see there.
21:36Now diving into topics that I wanted to discuss today in terms of running back strategy here.
21:42I've got a YouTube comment from user mad skills.
21:457183 said, all the questions on running back splits has me leaning towards the possibility of drafting three running backs in the
21:52first five to six rounds, even in PPR. I like the wide receiver depth better than running back depth.
21:58So being able to get two starters and a possible flex is intriguing.
22:02I am with you on that one. I prefer a hero RB strategy, but it's a hero truncated RB strategy this season because with you, I agree.
22:11The last call point is round six. So my preference in terms of my draft recommendations for people is that you need
22:18to grab your second running back by round six.
22:21That is the last call spot there. As we get into training camp, we could get some more clarity.
22:27I mentioned again, Jadarian Price, right? If Zach Charbonnet is not going to be ready, are they going to give this massive workload to Price?
22:35Yes, you know, we should see the involvement of other running backs, but if he's the RB1 in a run heavy offense,
22:42yeah, that is actually going to have some value.
22:45So we can push that back there. Basial Tootin, another guy who falls right on that cusp.
22:50If we figure out that he is in fact three down back, that pushes it back a little bit.
22:56Other guys would be like, who else would be in there?
23:00Figuring out the Pittsburgh running back situation. Is either one of those guys between Rico Dowdle or Jaylen Morin going to be a lead back?
23:08But these are all questions that we have to have answered in training camp.
23:13So until we can get more clarification that those running backs are going to be those safe, no, no fail situation, volume, good volume guys.
23:21My last call point is round six. So securing your running back at least by that.
23:26But round five is my preference there, depending on how your, you know, how your draft goes and how far back it push.
23:33Um, but early round is very straightforward for me at running back.
23:37And again, this is why I'm leaning towards, um, heavier running back builds in terms of making sure that I come out.
23:44Because when we look at these first two tiers, really of running backs, there's a lot of extremely safe options.
23:51Running back is deep very early on this season.
23:53And for all the lack of, um, later mid round options that we have, once we get past like RB 24, the
24:01first top 12 is really just kind of solidified in terms of really high upside opportunities.
24:06And I'm sure, I think you guys can hear my dog losing his mind in the background.
24:11It drives me crazy every single show. Uh, but looking at the tier one guys here, we'll run through tier one and tier two here real quick.
24:20Tier one. Um, and I'm looking at ECR tier one is Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor.
24:26I separate those in my personal tiers to a one a and one B kind of thing where that tier two is
24:33for me is more of that Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, because I do think they're very separated from Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs in terms of safety there.
24:42So when I'm looking at them, you know, you get your two.
24:46If not, if you don't have the early enough pick to be able to grab Bijan or Jameer Gibbs, it's that next
24:53grouping down here that I think you can bypass and nothing wrong with drafting Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey, but the fact
25:00that you can come around to round two and get guys like Saquon Barkley looking at this next year here, you've got
25:07James Cook, Ashton Gentry, Javon HN, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, Amarian Hampton.
25:11And then you can even dip further and include a Derrick Henry.
25:15There's Kenneth Walker, who again is a little bit shakier, but then Kyron Williams, very safe there.
25:20Josh Jacobs comes in a little bit lower because of the, obviously the risk of him from a legal perspective.
25:27But I've sitting here and rattled off literally 10 easy names that I can feel very comfortable with as my RB1.
25:34If I were to be able to go running back heavy and get two of those, you're potentially setting yourself up for significant success there at running back.
25:43So, and especially when you consider again, kind of shifting towards those tier two guys, the wide receivers are very interesting in
25:50terms of, we get into this weird kind of shaky area with the round two wide receivers where it's guys that have these weird quarterback situations.
25:58Like Drake London, obviously like what's going to happen with Tua potentially starting there.
26:03We know that Drake London had massive upside with Michael Penix.
26:06What is going to happen with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback?
26:09Obviously we know in better days, he was able to work with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle on a higher level, but
26:17in recent, in recent, as recent as last year, it was a little bit disturbing, right?
26:22I trust him in terms of checkdowns to be John Robinson, but I don't know how much I trust him to truly
26:29get the level of upside that we know Drake London has, right?
26:33So we've talked about Nico Collins in recent videos in terms of lack of potential volume.
26:38If he repeats the same type of volume that he had last year, last year with CJ Straub, the improved defense, right?
26:45Just really kind of capping the upside that he had because they didn't have to, they didn't have to have a ridiculous amount of pass volume, right?
26:54Other guys here that would be a little bit, you know, shakier would be you get into the Justin Jefferson, right?
27:00In terms of, you know, Kyler Murray, do we trust him?
27:04And what happens if Kyler Murray does Kyler Murray things and gets injured and we're back to JJ McCarthy, right?
27:10So looking at how you could build, I mean, it's very possible to just lean on one of those safer top five
27:17options at wide receiver and come around and round two, hit running back.
27:22Maybe then you come around in round three, hit running back again.
27:25Settle that up really quickly there because we've got some good mid round depth there at wide receiver.
27:31So running back strategy is very, very clear for me in terms of being able to take advantage of this high end depth that we have, right?
27:40Right. You can go with the safer option of guys in, you know, strong offenses that have a certain level of baked
27:47in volume, like a Chase Brown or Derek Henry, James Cook, right?
27:51Or you could go the riskier option of the guys that have that legit top five upside, right?
27:57That league winning upside and a Saquon Barkley or Devon HN.
28:00Um, but they are, you know, a little bit riskier because of team situations and changes going on and whatnot.
28:07But, um, it's very intriguing. And I think that kind of takes us into this second, um, question that I had or
28:14comment that I had from YouTube as well, that I wanted to show, um, from Strallo 90 says, I want to believe
28:21in Saquon at his price point, but I'm not fully sold.
28:24And I think picking the right running back between Saquon, Hampton, uh, HN and Hampton could be season defining.
28:31I love HN as a player, but Hampton seems like he has the highest touchdown upside and we know what Saquon can do.
28:38And I think this is one that a lot of people are debating because I did a recap of draft that I
28:45did, um, a couple of weeks ago. Right. And I took HN over Saquon Barkley.
28:50And, you know, one of the comments that I received is, Hey, you might regret, you know, not going with Saquon there.
28:57Um, and I, and I love Saquon as well.
29:00He's a target for me. Um, I don't think you can go wrong really with Saquon HN or Hampton.
29:06Um, but for me, the separating factor here in terms of who you would take between them is all about the level
29:13of risk that you want to take. Um, because I am a believer in the bounce back of Saquon.
29:19And they all actually have their own inherent risk there.
29:22Right. Because with Saquon Barkley, he is, you know, dipping up there in age.
29:27Right. Um, and he is coming off of a down season.
29:30So you could argue maybe this is teetering towards the fall off for him.
29:35Um, I more so think that what we saw with him was a come down from a very high volume level that
29:42they had in the Super Bowl year where he had, um, well over 340 carries, um, in season.
29:48And then combined with the post season, it was just massive workload there for him.
29:53So I'm not shocked. He had to come down in 2025 here.
29:57In my opinion, they will get back to the bread and butter of leaning on Saquon Barkley.
30:02And I do like the fact that they added Sean Mannion as the offensive coordinator, um, because it is a little bit
30:09shaky in terms of what we will see from the wide receivers with him because he does come from green Bay.
30:16So we know that it can be a little bit spread around there, but from a running back perspective, that coming from
30:23Matt LaFleur, who under Josh Jacobs or with Josh Jacobs aggressively tilted the Packers offense to relying heavily on the run, minimizing
30:30the passes, leaning aggressively on the run, not a ton of you utilization of, um, Jordan love at the goal line, lots
30:37of goal line opportunities there for Josh Jacobs. So if we bring over that same concept, right.
30:43And obviously we know that there are more touched on opportunities for Jalen Hertz at the goal line, but conceptually here, we
30:50should see a nice bump in volume from Saquon Barkley under Sean Mannion.
30:54So I think it's very safe from a pure volume perspective.
30:57A-chan is a very high upside play in my opinion.
31:01So if I'm feeling riskier and I am often feeling riskier when I'm drafting.
31:05This year, especially early. Cause I did, you know, do a lot of leaks where the, you know, it can sometimes pay to be a little bit riskier.
31:14Right. Um, but depending on how risky you're wanting to feel, a chance upside is theoretically ridiculous.
31:20Um, this year, uh, when I look at him, I, I, I compared it to having a potential Christian McCaffrey type of
31:27workload and people get very scared because they say, you know, this offense is going to be terrible.
31:33I do, I do question the level of overreaction that we might be having because the offense was not good at Miami last season.
31:40It wasn't good to, it was not good. Um, we saw literal trash and yet we saw the same exact Devon HN
31:47that we have seen for multiple years now in terms of offering that high upside of not volume on the ground, but
31:55being extremely productive from a pure talent perspective with volume on the ground.
31:59And then the receptions as well. And I don't think the receptions are going to go away.
32:04People, in my opinion, we should see Devon HN as the receptions leader on this team operating as the pseudo wide receiver
32:11one, the difference between a Devon HN and like a, let's say Josh Jacobs, right.
32:16Um, cause you know, and it's on my mind green Bay, right.
32:20The difference between those types of running backs, right.
32:23Is that when you have a running back like HN, um, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, those are not often reliant on simply
32:30check downs, but they line up as receiving options and they play out of the slot and they line up wide.
32:37Um, and we should see that continuation because while Mike McDaniel is gone, we do have Bobby Sloick who was the passing
32:44game coordinator last season, staying on staff and becoming the offensive coordinator here.
32:48And all of this at the end of the day, just kind of stems from Kyle Shanahan.
32:53Anyway. Um, he is from the Kyle Shanahan team.
32:56He worked with, um, uh, the new Miami head coach in, uh, San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan.
33:02Obviously that's where Mike McDaniel is. They had all worked together.
33:05Right. So theoretically, while we will see a shift to his own philosophy, cause it is different than Mike McDaniel.
33:12We're still going to see that same utilization of HN because I find it very hard to believe that a man who
33:19ran a passing game that did heavily utilize Devon HN as a receiving option last season is suddenly going to side.
33:26I don't want to do that. No, our freshly paid RB one.
33:30Now we're just going to line them up in the backfield and call it a day.
33:35So it's risky, but the upside in terms of the pass catching that he could have in this offense protect, especially because
33:42we would expect them to be playing from behind would be significant here.
33:46So it's a high ceiling play for sure. And then with Amari and Hampton, Amari and Hampton like falls into the perfect offensive situation.
33:54And I, you know, and it's, it's interesting because I do think he actually carries the same inherent risk that the other
34:01guys have just different because his offense is expected to see a massive uptick in production because we have a change in offensive coordinator to Mike McDaniel.
34:10And at the same time, um, we are getting to a more healthy offensive line.
34:14They should get their guys back to start the season that were out last season that made everything very wonky.
34:21Um, although run blocking was not that bad last season, right?
34:24We saw very high upside games from come on by now, by the way.
34:29Um, but better offensive line situation, they've reinforced it.
34:32So there should be lots of goal line opportunities.
34:35We know that Amari and Hampton, despite being a big back can, uh, can catch the ball very well.
34:41Um, can handle, uh, it's not just catch and fall, right?
34:44There would be good yards after the catch as well.
34:48Uh, my only fear here is, and this is not a massive fear.
34:52It doesn't make me turn away from him, not pick him or anything like that.
34:57I'm perfectly cool with it. He does have some inherent risks like the other guys, because it is entirely possible that he
35:04is potentially a little bit minimized in the past game to where he's still operating in the past game.
35:10But we know that Mike McDaniel, um, really, really likes Keaton Mitchell, right?
35:14And Keaton Mitchell has to stay on the field.
35:17He has yet to prove he can play a full season.
35:20But if he did, and Mike McDaniel is wanting to do some Devon A-chan type of things, Keaton Mitchell does fit that profile.
35:28So we could see him, you know, significantly used as a change of pace bag.
35:33So while Hampton would still be the clearly back, no issue in that trustworthy goal line opportunities, all of that good stuff.
35:40Um, you know, there's just a little potential chink in the armor there.
35:44And it's not as if we didn't see when Hampton did come back at the end of last season, right from his
35:51injury, we did see Amari and Hampton, um, seed some, uh, work to Kamani Vidal there.
35:56So it was a little bit concerning. Now granted, you know, it still was fine from a fantasy perspective, but the overall upside was capped.
36:04So the worry is still there that that could happen there for him.
36:08So just keep that in mind that he does have risk with him too.
36:13He's not the full, the full proof option here.
36:16It's kind of pick your poison. They're all great guys.
36:19And honestly, I mean, if you've got one team, go with your gut on it.
36:24If you've got multiple teams, diversify it. Right. Um, because I do, I'm diversifying it a little.
36:29I do like all of them a lot. My preference there though, is a jam by a smidge because I want that massive upside.
36:37I'm a true believer. I'm a true believer. I've drank the Kool-Aid, my own Kool-Aid, by the way, I started this Kool-Aid
36:44and I made it and I drink it. The Kool-Aid of him being this potential overall RB1 because of the receiving upside
36:51that he would have in this offense because of the lack of receivers that we have there.
36:57Um, now going here to the chat here, cause I see you guys putting in comments, um, and I want to get to those as well.
37:05Let's see here. Loving life says if I end up with Saquon, I would definitely want to handcuff him with tank.
37:12Yeah, I agree with that one. And I'm not always where you have to, you know, handcuff your running backs with their own handcuffs.
37:20Cause I like to, you know, diversify and find some potential options that could, um, stumble into overall RB1.
37:26And then, you know, Hey, I've got three RB1s there.
37:29But I don't think it's a bad strategy to handcuff with tank, uh, tank belt.
37:34Jesus got tank Dell on the mind and his potential comeback with tank big speed there.
37:39Um, because while it was a little bit last season, I saw enough to believe that he would be the direct replacement
37:46one for one in terms of a handcuff there.
37:49So I do think he would stumble into significant workload there.
37:52So, um, for sure, that is actually one of my preferred handcuffs.
37:56Like at the end of a draft, if I'm just looking for a random pick, like, Hey, you know, if Saquon were
38:03to be caught by age tank, wouldn't be the worst pick in the world.
38:08Um, Mike two, seven, five, six says Hampton played without two of the best offensive linemen in the game.
38:14Um, with both of them and Mike McDaniels as, uh, Mike McDaniel as OC huge upside.
38:19Yeah. And that's, you know, it's funny because sometimes I see people talk about the chargers offensive line and how poorly it
38:26was this season, but you have to remember that wasn't their fault.
38:30And there was nothing they could have done to avoid that.
38:34When you lose two of the league's best, it's tough to build around that, right.
38:39Um, to thrive around that. And they did to their credit, go and make some additional changes because there were some, there
38:46were some guys that were slacking a little bit on the offensive line in terms of healthy guys that remained.
38:52And they got some depth as well. So they made more changes.
38:56It's not just the guys coming back from the injuries.
38:59They made additional changes and added some depth as well.
39:02So overall, this unit should go back to exactly what it was before.
39:07Um, Linda Wells says Saquon and A-Chan both have a history of missing games due to injury, but I trust Saquon more
39:14in the Dolphins offense scares me as a fantasy owner.
39:17A-Chan hasn't been that bad, especially for a running back, to be honest.
39:21He, there was the rookie season, right? Um, but he played, I mean, the rookie season where he missed the first, was it the first?
39:29He missed the first, he started off missing one game, came back, was kind of eased in.
39:35Then he missed, um, a little chunk in the middle there, but that was it.
39:39The next season after that, 17 games last season, 16 games.
39:43I mean, yeah, there hasn't really, and the one that he missed was at the end of the season.
39:49So that don't really count in my opinion. Um, A-Chan hasn't really had injury problems.
39:54Um, Saquon, not really. So yeah, the injuries, I don't consider them injury risk.
39:58Um, my injury risk guys are guys like Christian McCaffrey, just because unfortunately that's a big one for me as well.
40:05Um, Christian McCaffrey is a just random side note there.
40:08I do fear that this is a, a scary Christian McCaffrey year.
40:12The amount of touches that he had was stupid last year.
40:16Anytime he's had like extremely high touches and finished as the overall RB one, he's suffered injuries the next season and not made it halfway through the season.
40:25Like it just, it's been a pattern and that's a pattern that you don't just see with Christian McCaffrey as well.
40:32Like that's a clear pattern with, uh, running backs in general.
40:35Like when you have those massive outlier years, it just increases the risk of wear and tear on the body next season.
40:42So, but yeah, I don't, um, I don't consider Saquon or A-Chan injury risk guys.
40:47Right. And you know, him, he's little, but you know, little backs do well.
40:52I mean, look at, look at James Cook. He's a smaller size back, extremely reliable in terms of his health.
40:58Um, let's see here. Mike says A-Chan, the only weapon they have, they're going to feed him.
41:04He's the only one. It's kind of, which again, they're tanking men.
41:07Um, which is also the mild hesitation that I have about Malik Willis, just because Malik Willis can end up being technically a Justin Fields situation.
41:16But I hope that they're, I hope that they don't go that direction, but it is a very precarious situation.
41:22But again, we're talking about the only weapon on the offense.
41:26And I know people say you don't want to draft players on bad teams.
41:30If that player is the only one that can get volume, it's not a bad bet.
41:35And if that player has been in bad offenses before, like again, guys, this was not a prolific offense last season.
41:42It was a bad offense last season. It was bottom eight, I think was the cutoff.
41:47That's off the top of my head. I want to say it was bottom eight, um, in terms of their, uh, their
41:54production and points, but A-Chan was still pumping out all season long.
41:58So, um, he is one that I trust significantly here.
42:02Um, from you want sauce says I'm going to keep her leg and going to keep pickings and going to draft three
42:09running backs in the first, uh, first four rounds.
42:12What are your thoughts? I'm going to, I agree with that for sure.
42:16Um, I would say, you know, depending on what wide receiver is on the board, maybe you go wide receiver in the
42:23first round and then just go running back, running back, running back.
42:27Because honestly, I mean, through four rounds, you would be able to stack up three top 20 backs very easily on that one.
42:34So in my opinion, I, I, yeah, I'm, I'm cool with that for sure.
42:39And I don't mind George Pickens at all this season.
42:42It is, you know, again, you're keeping him. So that's excellent because you're not having to have that elevated cost of the
42:49ADP that other people are having to pay for him.
42:52He's a top 10 receiver this year in terms of where he is going to be drafted.
42:58So it is a little hefty price there, but, um, I, I think that's a fine direction there.
43:03Uh, again, when I look at CD lamb and George Pickens, it's been a weird situation where I've been kind of like
43:10a little bit on the edge in terms of, do I really, you know, it's weird drafting two guys that early from
43:18the same team in terms of wide receiver, same position.
43:21But at the end of the day, I do think that we're going to see a repeat in terms of the level
43:28of volume that Dallas had to throw last season, because while they've made improvements to the offense, I mean, to the defense,
43:35I mean, I don't think it's going to make a leap to the point where it's going to be prolific average would be at best.
43:43So if they're still on the struggle bus with defense, I mean, we're still going to see very high volume from Dak Prescott there.
43:51So, and we know that we can trust him from that perspective.
43:55So I don't mind it. I mean, there is volatility in Pickens.
43:58So that's why I'm saying, Hey, I think that Pickens is a good keeper, but you might want to make sure with
44:06that first round pick, maybe you secure a true wide receiver one who is going to have consistent volume because you get
44:13more peaks and valleys with George Pickens and the peaks are wonderful, but you know, you can get those little valleys from him.
44:20So get someone, um, to be your wide receiver one.
44:23Who's a bit more steady in terms of consistent targets there and volume, maybe less touchdowns, more consistent volume and targets there,
44:30and then get your three running backs. So yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me.
44:36Do not, um, disagree with you at all on that one.
44:39Loving life says definitely agree on running back. Take two running backs in the first three to four rounds for me.
44:46It's just so juicy. How can you not? Right.
44:49Uh, miles Logan says, yeah, I've been mock drafting and I've noticed running backs going quickly, like good running backs.
44:56Um, and may have to do back-to-back picks on running backs for sure.
45:00And if you have to, and if they're going off very quickly, um, I will say that you can pivot like one,
45:07you don't want to, you don't want to forego that early round range at all.
45:12You need to get at least one, but I will say this, um, because we're checking in with, let's see here, where
45:19is the, oh, actually, let me look at overall.
45:22Overall, where is Quenshawn Judkins? Quenshawn Judkins is overall 53, right?
45:25So, and yeah, so Bucky Irving, Cam Scadaboo, Quenshawn Judkins are all going within that RB 52 or not RB pick 52, 53 range there.
45:33So you can dip into round five and still be able to get somebody that is a true three down back.
45:40Now, Bucky is not one that I trust. I just wanted to include him in case you do like Bucky, you're more than willing to do that.
45:49Um, but if you see running backs going super quick there, and maybe you see an opportunity to kind of pivot a little bit, right?
45:57You get one running back. Um, and maybe the, there's a running back run there rather than having to take, you know,
46:04getting caught at the bottom of a tier or something.
46:07Uh, let's say, let's, uh, Travis Etienne. Let's say that you see a running back, um, run and there are good wide receivers on the board.
46:15Your option would be taking Travis Etienne. Maybe you bypass that and you push it back around and you go into round
46:23five and you get one of the guys like Quenshawn Judkins, or even, you know, push a little bit further back and
46:30get you a DeAndre Swift or something like that.
46:33Um, just to still be in that range that's acceptable, but not have to be at the bottom of a tier and
46:40take something that is a little less productive. Right.
46:42So there's, there's ways around it. Right. But yeah, I do think that grabbing those two running backs early is a solid move here.
46:50Um, Hazelnut says I have the number 11 pick in a super flex 12 team.
46:55And I, let me start that over. I have a number 11 pick in a 12 team super flex.
47:01Gonna grab a top running back slash wide receiver.
47:04Then a quarterback like Herbert Lawrence, Caleb. My one keeper is one keeper is Tyler Warren there.
47:10I like that for sure. And then, uh, says, Hey, uh, oh yeah, let's meet the pop.
47:15I, you know, my door is close. I, maybe I, I took a wrong strategy there.
47:20I should have known that he was going to start barking.
47:24There's, um, the people across the street for some reason.
47:27I guess they have like family over and they were standing outside talking.
47:31And I thought I was good because he didn't notice.
47:34And I think he caught it and just started like barking.
47:38Cause he sees people and he just loses it.
47:41I should have pulled him in here and trapped him in here with me.
47:45That's gotta be my strategy moving forward here. Um, but I, so one keeper back to you, Hazel that keeper as Tyler Warren is wonderful.
47:53So love that for sure. Um, and then super flex here.
47:57Yeah. I think that's a good strategy. Now I will say that.
48:01I mean, yeah, you might have to go, you might have to go in round two and get the quarterback then, but
48:08there would still be a acceptable wide receiver. I think I'd probably lean towards depending on what wide receiver is there.
48:15Maybe you lean towards and you have 11 pick here.
48:18Um, I think I might with your 11 pick probably maybe want to see what wide receiver falls there because you could
48:25easily see maybe an Amin Ross St. Brown fall right there.
48:29And so maybe you do that, grab wide receiver, turn around, grab a quarterback, and then, um, dip into round three with the running backs.
48:37And you would still be in that range where you're still getting like, at the very least, like a Derek Henry there and super flex.
48:45So I think, yeah, I think that strategy for you would be very good there with that number 11 pick.
48:51I would try and see if one of those, um, top four receivers, in my opinion, with Amin Robbing, your cutoff falls
48:58to pick number 11, because that did happen to me in a league.
49:02I got very excited and I snatched that sucker up right there because he should go a little bit.
49:08That's my cutoff in terms of safety level for a good wide receiver one in round one.
49:14So that would be the approach that I would take there.
49:17Um, Sparky D back says, what do you think about Jonathan Brooks?
49:21Oh, and over in Carolina, have a good feeling about him.
49:25They sound like they want to get him on the field immediately.
49:29And the math, the method that they would use to do that would be third down receiving work.
49:35Right. Um, so, and I do think they're going to be run heavy.
49:39So I, I don't mind, um, both Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks, Jonathan Brooks, um, ADP hasn't risen a lot.
49:45Um, we have not gotten, um, thank God we haven't gotten a lot of hype up there of his ADP being pushed up like, um, like Kenneth Gainwell.
49:54Right. I love Kenneth Gainwell all off season. The ADP got pushed up ridiculously who I still like him good target.
50:01Right. But the ADP got stupid elevated. Um, and we're not seeing that significantly with Jonathan Brooks.
50:06So that's a good thing. We're still getting good value on him.
50:10Um, and we're still getting, you know, decent value on Chuba because it's possible that Chuba could just retain his role.
50:17Right. And we know that the Panthers want to be run heavy as well.
50:22We don't see a lot of aggressive pass volume out of, uh, Bryce Young there.
50:26So I think there is potential and I will like Jonathan Brooks because again, you know, one handcuff to potential standalone value.
50:34If he is going to have that third downward and then three, he can just take the job flat out.
50:40If he just looks better than Chuba Hubbard, because obviously we've seen that for multiple years now with Carolina, they will switch up the starting running back.
50:49If one looks better than the other. So, um, I do like him in a drafts as well.
50:54Um, Brevin says found your channel this week. Thank you.
50:58Love the content. How do you feel about Derrick Henry this season?
51:02Does his age worry you? You know, it's funny.
51:04Um, cause I've been talking about, um, Christian McCaffrey a lot.
51:08And whenever I talk about avoiding Christian McCaffrey, um, inevitably the response comment is you guys always say this about, uh, CMC and Derrick Henry.
51:16And my reaction is I have never said that about Derrick Henry a day in my life.
51:22And I never will. I think he's just built different.
51:25Um, and I have zero fear with Derrick Henry.
51:28Um, age doesn't worry me. Uh, he is handling the same.
51:31The fact that he is still handling 300 plus carries at his age, and it's not a problem whatsoever.
51:37And the fact that he was able to do, uh, have the production that he had last season in what was an
51:44objectively bad season for Baltimore, um, because the offense was not effective, um, to the level it should have been without Lamar Jackson, cause he's Lamar Jackson, right?
51:53But the Lamar Jackson injury, and even when he came back, he wasn't quite himself.
51:58Right. So that hurt the season. The offensive line was underperforming.
52:02And, you know, if anyone's got any fears about the offensive line, um, this season, right?
52:07Because we did have the exit of Tyler Wunderbaum and they've got some changes, right?
52:12It's, it might take a second for the line to start gelling because of all the changes, but I think the real
52:19issues that they had, um, in terms of the struggles with their offensive line last year, they, they seem to have reinforced it.
52:26So I'm not super concerned that we're going to see a massive drop off in their offensive line.
52:32Um, and at the end of the day, a healthy Lamar Jackson is the key here because with Derek Henry, we know
52:39that games have to be competitive because his volume comes on the ground, not through receiving work there.
52:45And I'm very interested to see the change over in offensive coordinator as well.
52:49I have no issue with Todd Monk. I think he was perfectly fine.
52:54I love what he did with Lamar. Um, but I am interested to see Declan Doyle and what he brings to freshen up this offense too.
53:02So I've got positive feelings about Derek Henry. I like the value for him.
53:07I would click him in a heartbeat and feel really good about it.
53:11Um, age doesn't concern me. I mean, he's just been so incredibly reliable.
53:15And when you look at him on the field, you just don't physically see a drop off here.
53:21He's just built different at this point. I'm convinced that Derek Henry will not be because running backs, you know, they just fade off.
53:28Unfortunately, poor things. It's such a sad position. They just, you know, fade off.
53:33Our greats fade off and just disappear. Right. I am convinced Derek Henry is just going to wake up one day and,
53:40you know, after a 300 carry season that was successful and say, Oh, you know what?
53:45I think I just want to go spend time with my family.
53:49That'll be his retirement. Um, A-Rod four says, can I toss out last year when I contemplate?
53:55Uh, Oh, can I toss out last year when I contemplate, uh, Jace taking JCM?
53:59Did injury riddled year influences for performance? Also Rashad White's one-year deal doesn't really, uh, doesn't mean he's the guy in Washington.
54:06Uh, also Rashad White's one-year deal doesn't mean he's the guy in Washington now.
54:11Right. I agree on that one. It's funny, you know, it's weird because the contract for Kenneth Gainwell doesn't ring a level of concern for people.
54:19Cause it was, they paid him good money, um, in Tampa Bay.
54:23Right. Right. But yet somehow the little spidget of money that they offered Rashad White is highly concerning.
54:29I think it's interesting though. You know, I think it's funny how contracts could be situationally used, um, or disregarded in other situations.
54:36Right. But I think with Rashad White, like we know him so well, we know that his work on the ground isn't spectacular.
54:44I don't know that I would want him to be the three down back of my team.
54:49Right. But we know that he is an excellent blocker.
54:53He is a fine receiver yards after the catch or not an issue.
54:57Right. So when I look at JCM and I look at Katron Allen and then the other ancillary backs on the roster, right?
55:04I know that Rashad White is the best third down back on that team.
55:09So I know he has that role for sure.
55:12Now, to what degree does he have all the early down and goal line carries versus splitting that work with a JCM?
55:19Does Katron Allen factor in? I haven't heard a lot about Katron Allen.
55:23Um, I feel like we've been hearing more JCM, um, talk up from beat reporters in terms of, you know, we've heard,
55:30you know, the rumors that he's been working on his, um, past protection and his receiving, because obviously that's the one area
55:37of, you know, and he can always improve on the ground.
55:41Right. But really in terms of him and his growth and progression forward as a potential starter there, it comes down to
55:48him being able to be trusted on third downs and not being pulled out of the game there.
55:53Um, and it sounds like Washington doesn't want to have this strict, here's our early down guy.
55:59And here's our third down guy. And if you see Rashad white, you know, that we're passing the ball and they want
56:06to be a little bit more diversified here. So that would be ideal if we could get to that situation.
56:12Right. Um, I think we will, I think what, you know, what we saw out of JCM last year in terms of
56:20Chris Rodriguez having the goal line preference was concerning, but when JCM did get the bulk of carries, he had success.
56:26So I think there's promise there. And I think the ADP is appropriate.
56:31I think it's worth taking a shot. Obviously I would like to see more out of training camp to try and gain
56:38more of an idea of where they're truly at, but I do think he'll have a role and an opportunity to solidify himself with this offense here.
56:46So I'm not holding last year against him. And I also think that when I'm looking at this offense, having a bounce
56:53back season with Jane Daniels, and this is just kind of speculation and thought process.
56:58Right. But if I were Washington, uh, in knowing the injuries that he has incurred, right, I would want to, and how bad the offense is without him.
57:07I would want to be a little bit more cautious, cautious with JCM.
57:11I would run him more like Lamar Jackson, right.
57:14In terms of, I would try to minimize his usage at that goal line because Lamar runs wild.
57:20Right. But when they get into the red zone, they're not trying to put him in dangerous situations.
57:26So you don't see a lot of goal line touchdowns, right.
57:29You don't see a lot of touchdowns inside the five from him.
57:33So I would like to see Jane Daniels transition to more of that, right.
57:38To where he's, you know, running and scrambling and whatnot.
57:41But when it comes down to red zone, we see to Corey Krosky merit.
57:46Right. So I think that could be a possibility as well.
57:49Um, especially if the offense bounces back and we get a good amount of touchdowns from him and goal line opportunities.
57:56So I think there's promise there. That was a lot of words to say that.
58:01I think there is promise there for JCM all is not lost.
58:05The potential is there. It does sound like he has been specifically working on those areas where he is weakened.
58:11So pay attention during training camp. But as of right now, I do still think that he's a good target.
58:17Right. And I think that kind of skepticism around the existence of Rashad White being there and kind of having that pseudo
58:25RB1 role, um, in the bag, people kind of have it as he's no, he's the RB1.
58:30This is it. 100%. Um, that existence means that no matter what happens over the next, you know, few weeks here, we're
58:37not going to see a massively elevated ADP for JCM.
58:40So that's good news as well, that he can still be a good value pick for us.
58:46Um, loving life says some people think in Miami tight end could blow out name escapes me.
58:51It's Greg Dulcich. Um, I have tried to be a believer for years now in him and it just never amounts to anything.
58:59It would be ironic if he finally did break out when I gave up on him.
59:04Um, but it is possible, right? Cause it seems like he is on the track to, um, you know, be a potential
59:11relevant look in that offense, but it's tough to then grant it to be fair to tight ends.
59:17Right. I think we get very spoiled with like the Colston Loveland's and the Tyler Warren's and Brock Bowers and whatnot.
59:24But traditionally it has taken some years for tight ends to kind of acclimate and really find themselves.
59:29So I would, you know, it's possible that he has a breakout season and plays a bigger role in this offense.
59:36Um, especially when you consider that, again, this offense legit that is shifting over to Bobby Slowick, but at the end of
59:43the day still stems from Kyle Shanahan. And this offense, this type of offense does want to heavily involve a tight end and Dulcich can fit that.
59:52So we will see there. Um, going back to some comments here.
59:56Uh, John says, which rookie besides Tyson and Tate and, uh, Keon, I'm guessing Keon is, uh, Concepcion, uh, besides Tyson, Tate
60:03and Concepcion are worth targeting as sleepers. Well, it's easy for me.
60:07It's Boston. Denzel Boston is mine. Um, quarterback situation is obviously sketchy in Cleveland, but really, truly like Denzel Boston was one of my favorite prospects.
60:15I was higher on him and it is entirely possible that he can be the first look in this offense in Cleveland.
60:22So I'm still holding out my hope and my dynasty shares on Denzel Boston here, um, being the one that comes out on top there in Cleveland.
60:31So that's, that's, that's my guy there. Um, and then besides, um, besides those, uh, that's really it.
60:37I don't really feel a lot of, uh, well, uh, yeah, besides that, I don't really feel a lot of, um, well,
60:44you know, and obviously in those top ones, you can include, um, Makai lemon as well.
60:49Um, outside of that, man, I just, I'm not feeling super inspired because I didn't like a lot of other landing spots.
60:56I don't believe in, you know, Omar Cooper jr's landing spot in the jets.
61:01I mean, uh, I still trust Garrett Wilson because Garrett Wilson has shown that he can dominate through any level of defunct jets off it.
61:09I mean, for reference there, how trash was Justin Fields?
61:12Sorry, Justin Fields. I love you. How bad was he last season yet?
61:16Garrett Wilson was still putting up numbers with Justin Fields.
61:19That's scary, right? He's so, so good in terms of being able to garner volume and be productive with that volume.
61:26So I don't have concerns. I got my concerns about breeze hall and that offense in terms of what happened, like, I
61:33don't think there's going to be a ton of opportunities on the ground because I do think there's this is going to
61:40be a bad team, but if it's a bad team, it does benefit pass more.
61:45And so I do trust Garrett Wilson. I don't see an issue there, but beyond that, I just can't get there with
61:52Omar Cooper jr like him, but, uh, the idea that we'll have enough pass production to consistently trust a secondary pass catcher there in the jets.
62:00And then, you know, we should also see Kenyon Sadiq in there as well.
62:05I just, I don't, I don't, I don't love it so much, unfortunately.
62:09Um, jumping back here down to the comments here, catch up.
62:13I'm sorry if I missed some comments here. We've got a lot.
62:17So I try to go back and see what I've missed there.
62:20Uh, but jumping down to the comments here, um, get some more before we wrap things up, uh, from Bob Hope.
62:27What, um, what do you think about taking Brown and May in the third and fourth rounds?
62:33I'm pro I have a dynasty team that ironically has Drake may and AJ Brown.
62:37So I'm hoping to God that connection works. Um, I'm pro, uh, Drake may and AJ Brown.
62:43I think what we're going to see with that new England offense is a shift in, um, higher pass volume because there wasn't a ton to work.
62:52And this is why I like, um, the potential there, because I think it's important when you're looking at offenses to kind
62:59of gauge which offenses are going to increase volume, which offenses have room to increase volume, which offenses are going to try and get more efficient, right.
63:07To kind of, uh, figure out what target opportunities there really are within a team.
63:12Right. And when I look at the new England Patriots, I look at a team that has a lot of room for more targets.
63:20They were operating out of efficiency last year. Uh, the schedule is a lot tougher this year.
63:26I do think that the efficiency is going to come down and we're going to have to see Drake may throw for more volume.
63:33If he's able to throw for more volume and be just as efficient, that would be crazy, crazy MVP level.
63:40But I think it's going to come down a little bit and we're just going to see that natural increase in targets there.
63:47So I would not be shocked if with the tougher schedule, we see a significant increase in pass attempts there.
63:54And obviously AJ Brown, I do trust like Romeo Dobbs and whatnot.
63:57I, I, you know, I, I enjoyed, um, K Sean booty last year, um, you know, in prior year, I like him a lot.
64:05So as a, you know, but I unfortunately don't think there's enough volume there for him.
64:10So ultimately I do think Brown's going to be the clear target hog first look in this offense here.
64:16So I'm riding with it this season. I don't mind it.
64:20We've got a nice discount on it right there with AJ Brown.
64:24So you're not have to pay a stupid price for him in a first round pick.
64:29So I'm good with it. Uh, follow Rob Thomas says thoughts on Tucker craft.
64:33Um, you enter your out of current costs. I'm in, I mean, my preference there would be Tyler Warren and Colston love one.
64:41I do have them both higher and obviously the other two.
64:44Right. But, um, after that, it is Tucker craft that I do like there.
64:49I mean, realistically Christian Watson, I am willing to take a chance at ADP on him for, you know, a flex, right?
64:56I don't, if I had to have him as my wide receiver too.
65:00Okay. But my preference would be as a flex option there.
65:04But at the end of the, because of, you know, if he plays a full season, I do think the upside of
65:11a 1200 yard and 10 touchdown season makes sense for him.
65:14But at the end of the day, we could see Tucker craft have the highest upside in this offense.
65:21And I will say this, the reason that Tucker craft comes behind the other guys for me is because I don't think
65:28Tucker craft has the ability to get to that one hundred target level that the other guys have.
65:33I think when I'm looking at the top seven, those are the ones I'm most comfortable with the top seven tight ends
65:41ending at Kyle pits, although technically Kyle pits and Harold vana jr.
65:44Flipped for me, but ending at Kyle pits, um, at consensus tight end seven there, all of those guys realistically can get to 100 targets very easily.
65:53Tucker craft is the only one that it's a little bit tougher for because the way the ball is spread around, but he does have red zone preference.
66:02We did see that last season. So I do feel good about him at cost.
66:07Not a problem. Seems like he's on track for week one.
66:10I think it's a very fine pick. Uh, Linda well says dear Tara kickers and DST matter.
66:16They won a lot of clutch games who should come off the fantasy board as in which one first?
66:22Well, I don't know. I'm, I'm more of a, I don't think I have a preference there.
66:28Um, I think I tend to lean a little bit more towards defense first, just because there are a lot of kickers
66:35that end up being later round kicker, uh, further back kickers that end up being in better team situations that get pushed forward.
66:42So I don't mind pushing defense first, getting a solidified higher end defense and then pushing kicker to my last pick there.
66:49So yeah, I would say that my preferences, I do kickers last is typically the way that I go, but they do matter, but I do love streaming.
66:58I'm not going to lie. Um, I do love a set it and forget it kicker.
67:03Right. But I don't mind streaming at all. Don't mind streaming at all.
67:08I think I'm more on the thing on the side of prefer streaming kickers and having more of a set it and
67:15forget it defense in my opinion, my preference. Um, follow around Thomas says, did you do your SFB 16 draft?
67:21How do you like your team? I did. I did.
67:24It's a high risk team. You know, I talk about like guys alike are HN and I left this graphic.
67:31Up forever. That's funny. Um, I talk about guys like, um, HN being riskier picks there.
67:36My Scott fishbowl team was about as risky as you can get.
67:40Um, I did, uh, the, the intention was I am going in every single round as risky as humanly possible.
67:46I got Rashid Rice. I got Devon HN. I was going high risk and I leaned, um, heavier on tight ends, which typically I don't do.
67:55Cause I, again, when I love streaming. And I love a late round tight end.
67:59Oh God. So much like last year, around day.
68:02Gadson, Harold fan and junior Juwan Johnson. Oh, that was one that really came through for me.
68:08Like I had, like, I had a lot of injuries in my Scott fishbowl team last year, but I drafted really well with late round tight ends.
68:16And so I had zero problems, um, covering it and making it to the playoffs.
68:21But this year I went different, which is weird for me.
68:25I drafted both Colston Loveland and, um, Trey McBride, which was so strange for me.
68:30So strange, but we'll see how it goes. The thrill of the late round tight end, um, though it doesn't treat me, but I, but I changed.
68:38I changed my ways people. You can change. Uh, Panda of love says one QB, three wide receiver, two flex, 10 team, eight keepers with pick 10.
68:47Rookie draft. Would you trade Josh Allen and Tyler Warren for, Ooh.
68:51Would you trade Josh Allen and Tyler Warren for Drake May, Denzel Boston and Eli Stowers?
68:56Oh, I don't know if I have the stomach to do that.
69:00I don't know that I would do that. Um, just because I, it's not a bad trade.
69:05If you want to do it, if you need to get younger at wide receiver and you want to take that risk
69:13that Denzel Boston is going to hit. That's ironic because I did not, as I was talking about Denzel Boston, I did not see this comment.
69:21Um, so now you're putting me to the test of what I, what I do that.
69:26I still think I like the Josh Allen and Tyler Warren side better.
69:30Um, just because, you know, there's the possibility of Eli Stowers being that guy in Philadelphia.
69:35Um, right. But at the end of the day, you've got two possibles there along with Drake May.
69:41And then you've got two locked ins with Josh Allen and Tyler Warren.
69:45I don't know if I would make that trade.
69:48Oh, I hate that. Cause I love both, uh, Boston and Eli Stowers a bit.
69:53I prefer the Josh Allen, Tyler Warren side there.
69:56Um, Ooh, from chaos is back here. Um, would you take HN Overcook and Jinty?
70:01I do. I do. Yeah. But again, that's me taking heavy risks.
70:05It's, it's very contrarian. I am admittedly can say that like, this is not me saying like everybody has to do it.
70:12It's a risky preference that I have. And I'm fully aware that it's a risky preference that I have.
70:18Logically cook and Jinty are safer picks, particularly cook more.
70:21So as the safer pick there, just because of, I mean, how incredibly reliable he has been the touchdowns.
70:27Um, again, I do think that the bills offense is going to remain run heavy in my opinion.
70:33So very safe pick there. If you prefer to go that route, I don't blame you.
70:38Jinty. Again, we are trying to do the heavy lifting of relying on the offensive line to make that turnaround in, uh,
70:45Vegas, but I, I feel comfortable with him, but my preference is HN, but I don't fault anyone that doesn't want to
70:52mess with the Miami situation and go with cook and Jinty, especially because with Jinty, the positive there with Jinty is that,
70:59you know, we're just looking for more consistency on the ground because, um, the volume was there through the air and Kirk cousins has zero problem checking down.
71:09Right. So that shouldn't be an issue. We just need the consistency on the ground there for them.
71:14Um, and then we'll do one more question here.
71:17And then Rob Thomas says, I took too many tight ends in a Scott fishbowl.
71:22I did too. And that's not my nature, but man, it just, they appealed to me.
71:27They were calling my name. I almost took three in the first five rounds.
71:32I was real close to pulling the trigger, um, on Kyle pits or Harold Fannin jr early, but I, I, I held myself back.
71:39I held myself back. I was like, girl, don't stray too far from the process here.
71:45Uh, Nick Taylor says, Hey Tara, I'm in a 10 team super flex redraft one keeper league.
71:50Who should I use my keeper on lamb or powers powers?
71:54Powers. Yeah. Bowers. Um, and that one's pretty, that one's pretty secure, um, for me just because the lack of addition, you
72:01know, basically the addition that Vegas made at wide receiver was Jalen Naylor.
72:05We know that Bowers is going to be the first look.
72:08We know that, you know, Kirk cousins is tight and friendly, you know, Hey, thanks.
72:13And I, for him, for him, for him, Mendoza is perfectly fine.
72:17If we do get that shift to Fernando Mendoza at some point, I don't see a major problem there, but Kirk cousins is tight and friendly.
72:26Not a problem. Their first look is going to go through Brock Bowers.
72:30So I do think we're probably in line for the massive Brock Bowers bounce back season.
72:35There lamb is safe in terms of volume, right?
72:38Because even with the decrease in production, he had with the addition of George Pickens last season, he was still tracking for,
72:45you know, if you remove the injury games and whatnot, where he played partials, he was still tracking for 150 targets plus, right?
72:52So there's no issue there in terms of volume, but I worry that again, the lack of touchdown opportunities that decreased last
72:59season with the addition of George Pickens just kind of caps that overall upside.
73:04So I kind of feel like, you know, I would rather take that risk in getting another wide receiver as my wide receiver one, right?
73:12And just sticking with your keepers. Brock Bowers would be my, wouldn't be my preference there, but that wraps things up guys.
73:19I'm going to go ahead and head out before this dog starts barking again and driving me crazy.
73:25Doing a show while the dog is barking in your ears, just a little bit maddening there, but we pushed through.
73:32I appreciate you all for sticking with me. Again, this is the Dear Miss Fantasy Show available on all podcast platforms and
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73:42It's Tara time. And then also shout out to player profiler.
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74:00We did talk. I was, thank you guys for asking the dynasty questions because we don't talk enough dynasty on here in my opinion.
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74:46But other than that, I will be back here with you next week.
74:50Same time, same place Wednesday at 8 PM EST.
74:53And hopefully we will have a ton of fun training camp news coming through here and rumors for us to go through.
75:00So, uh, make sure that you stick around. I'll be back here with you next week.
75:05Have a wonderful end of your week. I will talk to you all next week.
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