Davis Mattek - Grinding the Variance - Week 7 - Thinking About DFS

Aaron Jones is completely off the board for DFS consideration because his price does not reflect his actual value; Jordan Mason's return limits Jones's role.

Adonai Mitchell is expected to return this week; his return creates a target-share question with Omar Cooper Jr., as both may split limited receiving opportunities on a Jets team that prioritizes the run game.

Alec Pierce received significant money from the Colts but doesn't even play anymore, representing a poor allocation of resources in the 2026 offseason.

Golden (Allen Lazard) is a better play correspondingly than Jameson Williams when stacking with Jordan Love, as Love-Golden or Love-Watson combinations end up much more owned than Goff-St. Brown combinations. This makes Golden a natural fit in the most common stack construction.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the cheaper of the two Lions receivers in the core stack construction, with projected ownership around 20 percent; he projects just as well or better than the more expensive receiver option (Matthew Golden) and is part of the easiest ownership path in the Lions-Cardinals game.

St. Brown becomes an insanely good leverage play when Gibbs is highly owned. The source notes an interesting wrinkle where Jordan Love ends up much more owned than Jared Goff due to being $800 cheaper and the Love-Golden stack building itself, making Goff-St. Brown-Gibbs a really unique and underowned way to play the game with significant upside.

Antonio Gibbs projects way too well on this slate, making him a priority play over Jamar Chase and other receivers at similar price points.

Knight has played so well during Jeremiah Love's ankle injury absence that the coaching staff will not completely bench him upon Love's return. The source expects Knight to retain a significant role, with Love receiving only about 10 ceremonial snaps per game that come directly from Knight's workload, indicating Knight has earned a lasting role in the backfield.

Breece Hall is expected to be heavily owned but the source argues ownership alone cannot make him a bad play; he will receive a million touches, all running back goal-line touches, and almost all running back receiving work in an incredible matchup against Miami, making him an every-lineup player.

The Jets employ a rotation strategy with Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis, alternating them in and out of the game; they run Hall for multiple consecutive carries, then remove him to run Davis for three carries, then bring Hall back for more carries, limiting Hall's snap share despite his role as the lead back.

The Jets also employed a rotation strategy with Breece Hall and Brees in Week 1 against the Titans, alternating them back and forth even when both were cooking, suggesting a consistent organizational preference for backfield rotation regardless of performance.

Irving is in a strong spot at 6100 DraftKings salary with an 81% snap rate last week; Kenneth Gainwell, despite receiving significant money from Tampa Bay, has delivered little return on investment; Irving's role is expanding as the lead back.

Irving benefits significantly from Baker Mayfield's return to the lineup; Mayfield will reduce defensive pressure on the run game and, critically, will check down to Irving on routes and screens—something Jalen Daniels refuses to do; Daniels is 'completely allergic to checking down' despite Irving being open, instead scrambling and throwing incomplete; with Mayfield, Irving should see an extra two to three checkdowns plus intentional screens on top of his existing four to five targets per week.

The source rates Cam Ward as the worst quarterback option in the Browns-Titans game for DFS purposes, making it difficult for pass catchers to generate fantasy numbers.

The source is 'Tate curious' this week due to condensed wide receiver ownership; Tate can theoretically generate a 27-yard touchdown in a lightly projectable way, making him interesting as a contrarian play despite low ceiling expectations.

The source says Cedric Tillman is fine to play in DFS against the Titans, offering no strong conviction either way.

Cedric Tillman has target shares above 25 percent in four of his six games; his air yards per target (aDot) is rising; the source notes this is positive context for his DFS value.

Chase Brown is a contrarian play with significant upside if you plant your flag on him; he performed worse than his current production last year during a similar stretch, suggesting he has room to maintain or improve. He remains playable even if Lamar Jackson does not play, and becomes even more interesting if Lamar plays and the Bengals are in comeback mode.

Chris Brooks is listed among the Packers' current running back options (alongside Marshawn Lloyd, Caleb Johnson, and Pierre Strong) and is characterized as inferior to Josh Jacobs. The source uses him as a baseline to illustrate the weakness of the current backfield.

Christian Kirk is not favored as a DFS play this week in the Rams game. The source explicitly states 'if Christian Kirk is more of the come out of mum field that's gonna be a big no for me' and prefers Mumfield over Kirk as a value option.

Christian McCaffrey is sitting at a very similar price to Jamar Chase but projects better; however, if Lamar Jackson plays, ownership will drip away from McCaffrey as the Ravens-Bengals game becomes more interesting and offers greater variety of playable options.

McCaffrey's ownership will drip away in a slate where Green Bay-Detroit is projected to reduce running back appeal; the source expects much greater variety of running back options this week, suggesting McCaffrey's typical chalk status may soften.

The source expresses confidence that Christian Watson will not see a significant decline in production despite Josh Jacobs' return and the potential for increased run-game usage by the Packers. The source acknowledges some self-serving bias (having enjoyed Watson's season) but maintains that systemic offensive issues will persist, meaning Watson's pass-game role should remain stable.

Hubbard is operating in a Christian McCaffrey/Jameer Gibbs-like role on the Carolina Panthers, consistently getting the ball with high volume; described as getting touches 'two and a half yards at a time' with heavy usage.

Daniel Jones played well last year but is playing so poorly this year that his decline accounts for over 50 percent of the explanation for the Colts' struggles; the source views this as a massive part of the team's offensive collapse.

David Montgomery's role in the Lions offense is discussed in context of LaFleur's offensive philosophy; the source notes that LaFleur and other Shanahan-system coaches prefer to run the ball, but the Lions have been neutral pass-rate all year, with their pass rate driven largely by defensive performance rather than offensive design.

Davis Allen is part of the Rams tight end rotation alongside Tyler Higby and Kanata Mumfield. The source notes that Davis Allen and Parkinson play a different role in the Rams offense than Terrence Ferguson and Tyler Higby, functioning more like a Mayor Bowers-type player. Davis Allen will receive some target distribution in the Rams game against Las Vegas.

The source says Denzel Boston is fine to play in DFS against the Titans, offering no strong conviction either way.

Derrick Henry becomes playable and a super fun play if Lamar Jackson plays; he is not playable if Lamar sits out. With Lamar in the lineup, Henry offers significant upside in a game with potential for high scoring and ownership distribution.

The source would not play Henry without Lamar Jackson due to insufficient raw rushing volume; Henry's fantasy appeal is heavily dependent on Lamar's availability and the game script.

The source rates Deshaun Watson as equally bad as Cam Ward for DFS purposes in the Browns-Titans game, making it difficult for pass catchers to generate fantasy numbers.

The source explicitly states the Giants backfield is not playable in DFS; there's no way to massage projections for Devin Singletary or other Giants running backs to make them viable plays despite their cheap salaries.

Samson is positioned to inherit passing work previously handled by Judkins before Judkins' ankle injury; described as 2024 SEC offensive player of the year with opportunity to expand role in the offense.

The source refers to Dylan Samson as the '2024 SEC offensive player of the year' and notes that if both Tyjae Spears and Dylan Samson are active, Samson would snatch away the passing work that Spears was getting before his ankle injury, making Spears unplayable.

Garrett Wilson has an obvious great matchup against the Miami Dolphins; however, the source questions whether the Jets' run-heavy philosophy under Ben Johnson will limit his volume despite the favorable opponent.

The source notes Garrett Wilson is 'obviously fine' as a Jets pass catcher option in DFS, implying he is a safe/reliable play despite the Jets' run-heavy game script.

The Jets employ a rotation strategy with Isaiah Davis and Braylon King, running Davis three times before subbing him off, then bringing him back; the source projects the Jets will win 19-10 with four field goals on four separate 11-minute drives with 10 carries split 7-3 between Braylon and Isaiah Davis.

Isaiah Davis has been phased out of the Jets' backfield; two games ago the team tried to make the Isaiah Davis thing work, but last game he played only 11 snaps compared to Breece Hall's 62 snaps, representing a complete shift away from Davis and toward Hall in a Javante Williams-Tyler Goodson-esque split.

Isaiah Likely, like Malik Nabers, will likely suffer consequences from JJ McCarthy's expected regression from his fourth-quarter performance against New Orleans; while both remain technically playable in pass-heavy scenarios, the source is avoiding the Giants offense this week and expects McCarthy to underperform, making Likely a downgrade play.

JJ McCarthy is starting for the Giants against Houston after Jameis Winston; the source is only 24% confident in McCarthy's ability to replicate his fourth-quarter performance against New Orleans (which featured vanilla defensive looks), expecting him to return to his typical poor performance level. The source's expectation is that McCarthy will underperform and downgrade the Giants offense, though acknowledges a small scenario where Houston's lead forces Giants into pass-heavy mode where McCarthy could put up statistics.

The source notes that JJ McCarthy doesn't need to be awesome in his Giants start—even an early pick six wouldn't be catastrophic for DFS purposes since it prevents the Giants from establishing their running backs (Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary, Scadaboo). McCarthy is expected to potentially get garbage-time volume in a game where coaches like Brian Daboll are trying to keep scores close for reputation reasons.

Jamar Chase projects worse than Bichon and Christian McCaffrey at very similar prices on this slate, making him not worth playing; Puka and Gibbs project significantly better. If Lamar Jackson plays, Chase becomes more interesting as a potential comeback-mode play, but the source's baseline stance is that Chase's projection does not justify his salary relative to alternatives.

The source expresses extreme confidence in Jahmyr Gibbs' value, stating that if Gibbs shows up at 18% ownership, they would 'take some money out' and 'get a second mortgage' to play more of him, indicating Gibbs is significantly underowned relative to his upside in the Green Bay vs. Detroit matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs is a core stack piece in the Lions-Cardinals game with projected ownership around 40 percent; he is presented as one of the two primary running back options (alongside Montgomery) to pair with Matthew Golden and a cheaper quarterback in the most common ownership construction.

Jalen Hurts is referenced as one of the two quarterbacks in the Lions-Cardinals game stack; the source notes that if Lamar Jackson plays in another game, it would provide an alternative with just as high a ceiling, making Hurts less of a must-play despite being part of the core stack.

Jameson Williams is a worse play correspondingly than Allen Lazard when considering DFS stacking dynamics. Because Jordan Love ends up much more owned than Jared Goff due to Love's $800 price advantage, Love-Golden stacks become more common than Goff-St. Brown combinations, making Williams less attractive as a stack piece.

Jamison Williams is identified as a residual ownership play in the Lions-Cardinals game; his projected ownership is 12 percent but he actually ends up owned at 18 percent, making him a player who gets overowned relative to projection in huge spots, suggesting potential value in fading or targeting depending on ownership construction.

Goff-St. Brown-Gibbs represents a really unique and underowned way to play the Green Bay vs. Detroit game, offering significant upside as a contrarian stack. This combination works as leverage against the more common Love-Golden stacks, as Goff ends up much less owned than Jordan Love due to Love's $800 price advantage.

At $5,500 in DFS, Jalen Waddle is described as a 'plug your nose play,' indicating the source views him as an unattractive option that requires holding one's nose to roster despite potential necessity. This suggests Waddle is overpriced or underperforming relative to his salary.

Upon return from ankle injury, Love will lose significant playing time to Bam Knight, who has performed well in his absence. The source expects Love to receive only about 10 ceremonial snaps per game that directly come from Knight's workload, creating a fragmented and inefficient backfield situation similar to the Packers' approach. The source believes this will get resolved quickly, but the first week back for Love could be particularly limited.

Jonathan Taylor is positioned as a playable DFS option if the Colts show up with pride; he will obviously get all the work in the backfield, though the source expresses uncertainty about whether the team will rally around Shane Steichen or quit on the season.

Jordan Love ends up much more owned than Jared Goff because he is $800 cheaper and because the Love-Golden stack builds itself naturally. This ownership dynamic makes Love-Golden or Love-Watson stacks more common than Goff-St. Brown-Gibbs combinations, creating leverage opportunities for contrarian players.

Jordan Mason is going to be back this week for the Vikings, returning from injury. The source notes this as the only real question mark for the Vikings-Colts matchup.

Josh Jacobs returns this week for the Cardinals after missing time; the source questions whether LaFleur will shift to a more run-heavy approach (negative game script) now that Jacobs is back, given LaFleur's preference for run-heavy schemes and the Shanahan-system philosophy, though the Cardinals have been neutral pass-rate all year.

The source expresses skepticism about Josh Jacobs' impact upon his return from injury, noting he is old, was inefficient last year, and is coming off a long break from practicing with a still-poor offensive line. The source projects his yards per carry at approximately 4.1 for the season and believes the Packers will continue to have systemic run-game issues that force them to pass despite being neutral-pro, meaning Jacobs' return won't dramatically improve the offense or create the run-heavy shift many expect.

Justin Jefferson's elite receiving talent is cited as a key reason to believe in the Vikings' passing game and quarterback performance; he's described as an elite wide receiver that enables quarterback success in the Shanahan scheme.

Justin Jefferson generated usable fantasy stretches when Carson Wentz was the Vikings quarterback, providing a historical comparison point for how quarterback changes can impact receiver production; this context is used to frame the broader discussion about quarterback-dependent fantasy outcomes.

Justin Jefferson is a strong play in the Kyler Murray stack against the Colts. The Colts will be down Sauce Gardner this week, which helps Jefferson. He'll likely see Mooney Ward in coverage but will get reps against Cam Taylor-Britt, the Colts' second outside corner.

Jefferson will face Cam Taylor-Britt as the second outside corner for the majority of the week; the source identifies the Cardinals' defense as weak enough to support a Kyler Murray-Justin Jefferson stack, noting the defense completely fell apart in the second half and is bad even with Gardner.

Keenan Allen at $4,800 is a half-decent play and likely to be a popular road stack against the Flores defense; however, if Tyler Warren plays, Allen is definitely not a jam play like he was the previous week, though he's not totally unplayable.

Gainwell is viewed as one of the worst picks on the board; despite receiving significant money from the Buccaneers, he has delivered very little return on investment and has had minimal impact on the offense.

Kyler Murray is perceived as worse than he actually is due to his inability to generate fantasy numbers for Trey McBride compared to the backup; however, the source notes Murray is only 23 years old in his third NFL season and has elite physical tools and pedigree (drafted around round one), leaving room for significant improvement despite current struggles.

The source confirms the Kyler Murray-Justin Jefferson stack is viable against the Colts, who are weak enough on defense to support it. The Colts will be down Sauce Gardner this week, which further helps the stack.

Kyler Murray faces the Colts in a matchup the source describes as 'perfect' timing, coming the week after Chris Ballard was fired; the source views this as a favorable setup for Murray.

The source expresses concern about Kyler Murray's status heading into the game against Denver. Murray was limited in practice on Wednesday, and the source indicates that his final game status will influence their desire to play Michael Wilson, suggesting Murray's availability or health could impact Arizona's passing game.

Kyler Murray is one of the two quarterbacks in the Lions-Cardinals game stack; the source notes that the cheaper quarterback option (likely Murray) is part of the core stack construction with Matthew Golden and one of the running backs.

Kyron Williams' backfield share in the Rams offense is subject to competition from Blake Corham and other backs. Last week, despite the source noting a strong backfield share stat for Williams, the production actually benefited Corham instead. Williams will see a bump in target share in the Rams game against Las Vegas, but the source plans to roster him alongside Mumfield and Higby as part of a salary-balancing DFS strategy.

Lamar Jackson's status is uncertain for Week 7 Cincinnati-Baltimore; he did not practice on Wednesday, and Crack Rock tweeted that Lamar will not play. The source initially expected Lamar to play based on the 2.5-point Vegas line but now leans toward him sitting out, though Vegas still favors Baltimore at 3.5 points. If Lamar plays, the game becomes significantly more interesting for DFS with greater ownership distribution and more playable options; if he sits, the game becomes contrarian play territory with limited Ravens/Bengals appeal.

If Lamar returns this week, Henry becomes playable; however, the source expresses hesitation about playing Henry without Lamar due to insufficient raw rushing volume, suggesting Lamar's presence is critical to Henry's fantasy viability.

Makai Lemon was drafted by the source's co-managers over Matthew Golden, and the source expresses regret about this decision, sarcastically noting 'glad we were drafting Makai Lemon over Matthew Golden that worked out well,' indicating Lemon has underperformed relative to Golden's production.

Malik Nabers has accumulated 34 targets over back-to-back games with insane target share numbers, but the source expects JJ McCarthy's return to starting QB will downgrade the Giants offense; while Nabers and Isaiah Likely remain technically playable in scenarios where Houston builds a lead forcing Giants into pass-heavy mode, the source is avoiding the Giants this week and expects McCarthy to underperform relative to his recent fourth-quarter performance against New Orleans.

Mark Andrews' fantasy value has deteriorated significantly; the source states 'it left him and it ain't coming back,' indicating a permanent decline in his DFS appeal and production outlook.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is referenced as part of the Cardinals' receiver group in the Lions-Cardinals game; the source discusses alternative stack constructions that could reduce ownership concentration by using different combinations of skill players, though Harrison Jr. is not specifically highlighted as a preferred or avoided play.

Matthew Golden is identified as the most common and easiest core stack piece in the Lions-Cardinals game, pairing a superstar receiver with cheaper quarterback and receiver options that project just as well or better; projected ownership around 45 percent with combo ownership of quarterbacks at 35 percent, Gibbs at 40 percent, and St. Brown at 20 percent, making him a consensus chalk play.

The source expresses strong conviction in Matthew Golden's fantasy value, stating there is no projected ownership level that would cause abandonment of him as a pick. The source emphasizes Golden's season performance and personal investment across multiple formats (FFPC, basketball, DFS teams), indicating high confidence in his continued production. The source also expresses regret that co-managers were not more aligned on Golden's value, suggesting he is underowned relative to his actual performance and opportunity.

Michael Pittman was lost by the Colts and replaced with Keenan Allen, who is described as 'old ass'; this roster move reflects the Colts' poor offseason decisions under Chris Ballard.

The source admits to getting swept up in Michael Wilson mania but notes that Wilson remains highly inconsistent; he can go 4 for 40 yards as easily as 11 for 117 yards. Despite the last two weeks potentially being an aberration, the source sees Wilson as a legitimate 2-5% owned play in DFS with a strong XFP profile. The source plans to grind Broncos practice reports to monitor Wilson's status, particularly regarding his limited practice participation on Wednesday.

Nico Collins is highlighted as a potential one-off play for the Texans against the Giants; the source notes the Giants have been vulnerable enough on defense that Collins could be a reasonable DFS target, though the source is not aggressively game stacking this matchup compared to last week's Saints-Giants game.

The source mentions Ollie Gordon as a potential correlation play with 80 Mitchell in Jets DFS; if Ollie Gordon breaks loose for a 60-yard touchdown, the Jets would be forced to pass more, but the source notes this would only apply to large field contests, not spy or three-max contests.

Omar Cooper Jr. at $4,100 may have to split receiving targets with Adonai Mitchell if Mitchell returns; the source suggests both receivers will compete for limited targets on a Jets team that emphasizes run-heavy play-calling.

The source is impressed by Omar Cooper and wants to play him in DFS; notes that if projections are too bearish on his route rate and underestimate his target share, you can play the potential upside without eating too much salary; the source is 'very into that' and guesses based on FFPC pricing that people are excited to play him.

Pierre Strong is listed among the Packers' current running back options (alongside Marshawn Lloyd, Caleb Johnson, and Chris Brooks) and is characterized as inferior to Josh Jacobs. The source uses him as a baseline to illustrate the weakness of the current backfield.

Puka Nacua projects way too well on this slate, making her a priority play over Jamar Chase and other receivers at similar price points.

Puka Nacua's target share in the Rams offense is being distributed among multiple receivers and tight ends this week. The source pulled Nacua from one DFS lineup in favor of Blake Corham, reasoning that Corham's scoring would come directly out of Puka's production. Nacua will see target competition from Kanata Mumfield, Christian Kirk, and others.

Sam Darnold's 2024 performance has declined compared to his 2023 season with the Vikings, though the source notes that his 2023 success was not a complete fluke and was sustainable given the right scheme (Shanahan) and elite weaponry; his success appears scheme-dependent rather than purely attributable to coaching.

Diggs at $6,900 is positioned as potentially the best wide receiver super-play on the slate; the source highlights him as a standout option in a slate with limited interesting running back choices.

Tee Higgins becomes more playable if Lamar Jackson plays, as the Bengals would be in potential comeback mode all game, increasing his target volume and ceiling.

Trey Benson is part of the Cardinals' running back rotation; the source discusses how the Cardinals have been limited to backup running backs (Marshawn Lloyd, Caleb Johnson, Pierre Strong, Chris Brooks) while Josh Jacobs was out, but Jacobs' return this week could shift the offensive approach.

Kyler Murray was not able to generate fantasy football numbers for Trey McBride the same way the backup was able to, which is cited as a reason for the perception that Kyler Murray is worse than he actually is.

Trey McBride has not generated strong fantasy football numbers under Kyler Murray, which the source cites as a reason why fantasy analysts perceive Murray as worse than he actually is; McBride's inability to produce fantasy value is attributed to Murray's performance limitations.

The source believes Tyjae Spears will probably be back in the Browns-Titans game; if he plays, the source would have very low conviction in playing him in DFS, with the only scenario being if he scores a touchdown.

Tyler Warren is expected to play this week; he was close to playing the previous week, and his return would hurt Keenan Allen's DFS appeal.

Hill is chalk on the slate; the source identifies him as an obvious play alongside Diggs, suggesting universal ownership and strong DFS appeal.

The source explicitly states the Giants backfield is not playable in DFS; there's no way to massage projections for Tyrone Tracy or other Giants running backs to make them viable plays despite their cheap salaries.

The source uses Wondale Robinson as an example of a talented player who struggles to generate fantasy numbers when his air yards per target (aDot) is low (4.4) and he is not getting schemed red zone opportunities.

The source would like to play Woody Marks at $5,600 against a weak Giants run defense, but won't because he's been too inefficient. Even assuming Montgomery doesn't play and Marks gets all the work, the source doesn't think he's playable in DFS.

McBride has reached a price point in DFS where the source indicates no one is even going to play him anymore, suggesting he is overpriced relative to his expected production or role in the Arizona offense.