0:00Wait until you see how freaking lucky I got man wait and when you guys see when I turn over the cards
0:07on my lineup you guys are gonna be like how does Davis keep getting away from this you know normally the deal
0:14with this program is how does Nate keep getting away with it and Nate did get away with it with some degree
0:22today and we're gonna castigate him for that now Sammy I gotta say pretty much every single week in cash this year
0:29there's been a pretty obvious team there's been very few choices a quarterback there's been very few choices at tight end very
0:36few choices a wider Cibre I did not feel that way today I think you could have gotten a way at quarterback
0:43I think you could have justified Jordan love I think you could have justified CJ Stroud I really really really tried to
0:51justify bow next to myself the um the last text message that I sent you guys before lock was uh actually a
0:58team that would not have beaten mine but was a team that would not have beaten mine but was a team that
1:05would not be a team that would have beat me back to myself.
1:09much better team than I ended up playing at the end of the day.
1:14I mean, it was just crazy. And I mean, it all stemmed from one game.
1:19There was one thing that really threw the projection system for Loop, which was the Emekig Buka not playing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
1:27So that thrust Ted Hurst into being this big projection.
1:30And honestly, a little bit of like, what would you even call this?
1:34The fact that K. Dot and projected so well, despite it being it having been two years since we witnessed this phenomenon
1:42of him turning into prime Rob Gronkowski when the wide receiver one for the Buccaneers did not play.
1:47Yeah. So there was a couple of things. First of all, I thought the choices at tight end and quarterback were very obvious.
1:55I was going to be caught dead playing Bo goddamn 0.5 A dot Knicks.
2:00And the people who did got some lucky bullshit ass 60 yard rushing touchdown.
2:04Congratulations to you. Happy for you. But like this terrible, terrible, terrible idea to play Bo Nix and you got away with it.
2:12George Kittle was the obvious tight end play. And as for Kate Otten, I mean, I didn't give two squirts what the
2:19damn projection said, because the projection was like, depending on where you looked, it was like a 10 point projection.
2:26And it's like Kate Otten is going to get three for 36 always.
2:30It doesn't matter who's out, who's in. He's just three for 36.
2:34He didn't even get that today because the game was wonky.
2:37But like, dude, his projection was higher than any game that he had scored this entire season.
2:43And you don't see that very often. And it's like, OK, it book us out like that's cool.
2:49But like, I just I just didn't see that.
2:52And I thought that was a pretty bad process play, too.
2:56It's like, look, we had a lot of good value at other spots.
3:00We had a lot of good value at running back with the lower guys like Braylon Allen, Woody Marks.
3:06But, you know, this is what's on Kate Otten.
3:09How can you do that? It's irresponsible. No, honestly, like I do.
3:13And I'm looking at. So this spoiler alert, this ends up not impacting my cash game lineups at all due to something we're going to get to.
3:22But I am looking at all my tournament lineups and I am like, what?
3:26Why was I passing up on all these incredible, incredible good plays?
3:30Like, why am I passing up on Braylon Allen?
3:33Why am I passing up on because you just had to have B.
3:38John? So I disagreed whenever whenever Nate decides to show up.
3:41I will disagree with that as well. I did not think like I didn't play B.
3:46John in any of my tournament teams. I didn't think B.
3:50John was a particularly good play. I thought Gibbs was so superior to him.
3:55The reason why I mean, so let's go. Let's work.
3:58Let's start at quarterback. Right. So the quarterback that everyone played was Jordan Love.
4:03He was the top points per dollar quarterback. I think he was 65 percent owned in the massive $50 double up.
4:09He was the clear, clear cash game quarterback. I mean, in terms of raw points, every site had him as a top five, you know, overall projected quarterback.
4:19And many sites had him as the top projected quarterback.
4:22Yes. And he correlated very well with Golden. Right.
4:25So Golden was if you if you've never if you've never played if you've never played cash games before, like basically Golden
4:32is just kind of exactly what you look like.
4:35He's like he's got the he's got the safe floor.
4:38He has got the insane ceiling. Right. Like Golden could have a 35 point nuke very, very easily.
4:44It's kind of like he's kind of like a combo of like, I don't know, Keenan Allen in terms of the short area stuff.
4:52But then he also has like the like he just everyone who is good at cash was was playing Matthew.
4:59So I thought I thought these were the locks cash game locks were Christian McCaffrey.
5:04I thought they were Matthew Golden. And I thought they were George Kittle.
5:08And then honestly, Kittle to me, I actually realized in my lineup too late that I could have just straight up played Braille and Allen over George Kittle.
5:17And I think if I thought through that a little bit more, I might have even done that.
5:23My my top conviction, my like top, top conviction of the day was that Braille and Allen was just like the absolute
5:30900 megawatt giga best play of this. And then and then me and Nate played him and you didn't.
5:37And I mean, yeah, Jesus Christ. I mean, you looked the goddamn hell out.
5:41But I mean, I thought those guys were locks.
5:44And I thought I thought Jordan Love. I never want to call a quarterback.
5:49A stone lock, but like a guy who I don't think the top quarterback and he's only 6k.
5:55Like, how do you how do you not play that?
5:58I don't I don't get that. Yeah. I mean, I don't think that Jordan Love was like because I think these are
6:05the only two scenarios where where in my experience, you can never have stone cold cash game locks where it is one
6:12of the elite fantasy quarterbacks and a slate where there's obvious value.
6:16So that would be basically Lamar or Josh when you don't really have to sacrifice anything to do it.
6:23Or when there is like a forty eight hundred dollar forty nine hundred dollar five thousand dollar quarterback who is in a good matchup and they run.
6:31I don't. The quarterback position is so narrow banded the way the NFL is now because you just don't have like quarterbacks don't throw for 400 yards anymore.
6:41Quarterbacks don't throw for four touches. Like this, this is something that like scoring is just too low and yards are too low.
6:48It just doesn't really happen anymore. Like a quarterback score you're going to get on a given week is between 18 and 32.
6:56Right. And that that banded projection does not exist the same way.
7:00You can lose a one V one at running back by 27 points like pretty easily.
7:05Like OK, like happens quite a bit like one V one today.
7:09Woody Marks versus Tony Pollard, which is something that a lot of people would have had in tournaments.
7:15You legit lost that by 30. You lost that one V one by 30, you know, and that I mean, I guess
7:22if a quarterback gets injured that can happen. But I before before I shit on Nate, I do got to say, Nate,
7:29you made the play of the day at quarterback.
7:32You made the play that I wanted to play because the very last thing that I looked at was Bo Knicks, Braylon
7:40Allen in the New York football jets defense versus Jordan Love, Kate Otten and spoiler alert, a defense I didn't end up playing.
7:47But the Dolphins defense was who I had in my lineup, which everyone else did.
7:52The Dolphins. How funny is this? The Dolphins defense, the most owned defense in cash.
7:57That's a good bit. That's a good bit by the field.
8:01Great, great bit. I thought it was going to be Tennessee.
8:04And I think those $300 just ended up mattering to a lot of people.
8:09So but Tennessee was clearly a really good play.
8:12I mean, Nate, you you played you played Knicks.
8:15So talk about I mean, I was not coward.
8:18Like I had this lineup sitting on my lineup page when I ended my live stream at 1159.
8:24And I said, I can't click save. I can't I can't do it.
8:28I can't click save on the on the Bo Nix lineup.
8:31So how did you how did you get there?
8:34Well, I mean, I think Bo Nix was always like an option for me.
8:39I think that. The way that this season has gone for him has been the lowest of the low possibility from like range of outcomes.
8:47He's only getting healthier if there was ever going to be a spot.
8:52It was going to be this week for him.
8:54And I thought that the salary made it work with Braylon and the Puka, which is really what I wanted to do the whole time.
9:03And so I felt I felt like the love thing was was not worth like it wasn't worth not getting Puka in for.
9:10And so I it wasn't that I thought Nix was that much of a better play than love.
9:16Like I thought love was great. But I. Yeah, I mean, I just wanted to make the plays that I thought were
9:23going to get me the most expected production. And even though the projections weren't jamming Nix and Braylon, I just I just
9:31did an IKB before lock and was like, no optimizers giving me this.
9:35But this is what I want to do. So so that OK, that right there is why I was having such a
9:42piss offing time building lineups this morning was because every stupid optimizer thing I looked at was like Ted Hurst, KDOT and Chris Godwin.
9:50These are all really good plays. And I couldn't get I legit could not get like Gibbs stuff to sim.
9:57Well, like the type of stuff that was simming.
10:00Well, you know, it's funny is Malik Willis was simming really good on Run the Sims this morning.
10:05And I was like, Malik Willis, dude, get out of here.
10:09I got a GM in more Jared Goff. Well, we'll get to the tournament.
10:14We'll get to the tournament stuff in a little bit.
10:17But like, I just thought optimal lineups looked bad.
10:20I just thought I was like, this is all just so fragile.
10:24It's it's so like I got a bunch of questions about about Tez Johnson this morning in my live stream.
10:30And I was like, you know what? That's fine.
10:33Like normally, normally I would be like, well, how could you do that?
10:38But I'm like, no, because the projections between Ted Hurst and Tez Johnson are total guests.
10:43We've never seen this configuration of players with Baker at quarterback ever.
10:47We don't really know what it will look like.
10:50I mean, and I bet if I mean, actually, I bet if we look at the snap counts, they played a bunch
10:57of 12 because they were up by a billion.
11:00I mean, the the Hurst Otten stuff is so funny because Bryce Young played like like maybe the worst game of his life today.
11:08There were there were 11 dropbacks. Baker Mayfield had 11 dropbacks.
11:12I'm going to guess that's the lowest of his career.
11:15I would guess 11 dropbacks is the lowest of his career.
11:18But Nate, you made the right play at quarterback.
11:21You did. And honestly, after after I think you play this slate over a thousand times, I actually think playing Bo Nix was the was the correct play.
11:31So I would like to tip my I would like to tip my hat to you because I'm not tipping any goddamn such thing.
11:39And I am wearing a hat. Won't be. Sammy, Sammy, this is kind of one of those things that sometimes I know
11:46the numbers might lead you a certain way, but sometimes you just got to watch a little football and know when someone's a baller.
11:54Yeah, you just you just got to watch Bo Nix and know just know that like these dump offs to RJ Harvey
12:01and slip screens to Marvin Mims are going to work out.
12:04But no, you're literally up for this. That's what Bo Nix does.
12:08That's that's the whole. No, no, Sammy, you know, I you know, I would rather side with you than Nate.
12:15I truly would. But Nate is right. Like Nick.
12:18Yeah, yeah. No, no, no, no, no. It's true.
12:21Congrats on your 222 passing yards and one passing touchdown.
12:24Good for you. I'm happy for you. You know, it's it's it's more.
12:28It's more about it's more about the other plays that your lineup allowed.
12:33Honestly, it really is more. Sure. Sure. Yeah. Yeah.
12:36It allows you to play Kate on in the in the goddamn flex.
12:40Like, you know, whatever. Well, I guess I guess they didn't do that.
12:44No, they didn't play George Kittle. He didn't play George.
12:48Now, Nate, Nate did something. Nate did something that I think is truly bad, but he's going to say is good.
12:54So we'll get to that. So, you know what?
12:57We're further enough in the show. I'll tell you guys why I was able to fucking smoke these guys by so much.
13:05Tell him. Tell him, Davis. Talk about run good.
13:08Davis. The only way Davis finally beats me is by getting 28 points from his freaking defense.
13:13Buddy, I was I was like, I mean, I think this lineup I played is dog water.
13:19I think it's terrible. I think this team I played.
13:22This team I played is is pure. I was just afraid of the project.
13:27I you must. I couldn't. Oh, I like one double ups.
13:30I must. You must have swept like me. I don't think I lost.
13:35Basically, I had the same score and we swept everything.
13:38I don't think I literally don't think I lost the head to head.
13:42Of course. So I played I played Jordan Love, B.
13:45John Robinson, Christian McCaffrey. I'm on Ross St. Brown, Matthew Golden, Ted Hurst, the third George Kittle, Kate Otten Davis.
13:52How did you sweep? Well, I played the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense who got 27 fantasy points.
13:58Why did I play? Why did I play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense?
14:02I'll tell you guys why I played the Buccaneers defense.
14:05I'm sitting there looking at this lineup and I'm like, first off, this is the worst train in the history of trains in cash games.
14:13Like, it's just so bad that I'm not even going to feel like.
14:18So when you win with the train, you know, you can kind of just be like, all right, well, you know, I won like whatever.
14:26Let's move on. If I lost with this team going in where I'm like, this team sucks, dude.
14:32I have Ted Hurst. I have Kate Otten. I'm playing two tight ends.
14:36It's just it's just like it's a it's a bad team.
14:40It's a it's a it's truly not a good team.
14:43And I just thought, OK, well, what is the simplest one V one I can do to just like create a little bit of positive variance?
14:51Well, the simplest one V one is always defense.
14:54Right. And it's like what the Dolphins defense is going to be.
14:58How could the Dolphins defense chalk be good? You know, it's just like I'm not even saying I'm not I didn't do anything smart.
15:06I didn't do anything clever. I played I played bad.
15:10Like the team that I wanted to play was Bo Nix over Jordan.
15:14Bo Nix instead of Jordan Love. Braylon Allen over Kate Otten.
15:17And. I don't know, some other some other fucking I think I well, I was also trying to not play Amon Ross St.
15:25Brown, but there was no there really wasn't a good receiver to make it work.
15:30There was. Oh, OK, well, the thing I did almost do this, which would have been a hilarious L is I almost played Keenan over St.
15:38Brown to get Braylon over over Kate Otten, which would have been.
15:42Well, Braylon would have scored. Then it would have been then it would have been equal.
15:48Yeah, Braylon should have scored. That was Braylon. It was so it was so funny.
15:53Braylon takes them down. Braylon takes them down to the one.
15:56And they get four plays from the one and they end up kicking a field goal from the 17.
16:02I mean, it's just 235 pound back. Like what you doing?
16:06Like, of course, the Jets lose. Like, yeah, of course, of course, of course, the Jets lose.
16:12But I mean, it's just like, really, at the end of the day, I just hated this lineup so much.
16:18I think this is bad. I think no I think no Gibbs is I think no Gibbs like B.
16:24John said. All right. Well, hey, my guy MBF said the Keenan Braylon team did fine.
16:30So, I mean, Braylon scored a lot of points.
16:33So and like Braylon outscored marks by what, like 12?
16:36He he like Braylon was like a top. I mean, certainly a top 10 running back score on the slate.
16:43McCaffrey got banged up, which sucked. But like, I don't know.
16:46Nate, tell like this lineup sucks. Just say like, even if it even had the Dolphins on it, this lineup is objectively not good.
16:54Yeah, I don't. I mean, it's a safe land is what it is.
16:58It's safe. It's safe because, you know, in the in the way that cash games are played these days, everyone is going
17:06to be on Hearst and Otten and all that.
17:09And so your risk of a zero at 80 percent owned is like not just that those guys are not the part that matters.
17:16I think my way of evaluating this is that giving up whatever from B.
17:21John to Gibbs, although I think B. John and Gibbs ended up scoring close because Gibbs ends up not having like that great of a game.
17:30But it stops twice to not get a touchdown at the end.
17:34Yeah, it just it just may have it may have sprained an ankle in the process.
17:39I think he did. I think he did. I don't know.
17:42It's just like he twisted that he twisted that fucker.
17:46It'd be good. It looked like and and love, you know, love over Knicks is real cowardice.
17:51It's like playing St. Brown, like St. Brown's always a good play, but I didn't think he was like anything like a cash lock or whatever.
18:00And then honestly, honestly, Kittle instead of instead of Braylon Allen, you know, doesn't.
18:04Yeah, I don't think I would have done that.
18:07I think I would have gone with Braylon Allen, even though it felt like very strongly that Kittle was going to smash.
18:15I know National Tight End Day is like not an actual thing that matters to scoring, but somehow it does.
18:21And I'm powerless to argue with it. Certainly. All their receivers were out.
18:25But like, man, yeah. Braylon Allen is like, dude, he's getting like 15 plus carries and five plus targets every game.
18:32He's giant. He's fast. He's playing a bad defense like that was, you know, that was he was like such a great play.
18:40I can't believe you didn't play him. Like you were 17 carries, six targets.
18:45Braylon Allen is like a legitimate three down. I mean, he like, yeah, he's his workload.
18:50He should be way, way higher, way higher. Yes.
18:53Yes. Yeah. And his talent level is there. He's not a dust ball.
18:57Like what? Like a lot of these other guys we play for volume.
19:01We don't. He's not. He's not what he marks.
19:04No, he's a legitimate run. I mean, he's like every time he has the ball, he could easily break one for 60 years.
19:12Well, no, he can't do that because he's not very fast, but it's more just like, you know, that he's going to turn size adjusted.
19:20He's fast. Well, size adjust, but size adjusting doesn't help you score 60 yard touchdowns.
19:25Helps you helps you score like 27 yard touchdowns where you break like three tackles for sure.
19:31Yeah. It's all that to Brandon Jacobs. Yeah. Yeah.
19:33Derek Henry. So Nate, I got to say my lineup is cowardly for sure.
19:38Didn't did not deserve to win nearly as much as I did.
19:42And you got and you got lucky with the bucks.
19:45I mean, that's essentially what it is. So yeah.
19:48So it's 18 point swing for you. And I think you're probably are you bubbling at that point or no?
19:55Uh, I have no idea. Uh, well, no. MBF, MBF said, MBF said he won with the Keenan Braylon version of my team.
20:02So no, probably still wins. Cause it's the dolphins was a 24 point swing for you.
20:08Well, here, what's the, here, I can go look at whatever the cash line was in the.
20:13Yeah. Yeah. I feel like if you scored 24 or fewer points, Davis, uh, you probably.
20:19All right. Uh, so cash line in the massive $50 double up positions paid 400.
20:23So if I scroll down to four, that's a long scroll down to 400 from where I'm at.
20:29Uh, oh, so it's, this is just the train team.
20:33So, so you know what would have happened? The train team returned $51 and 31 cents.
20:38So I would have cashed and I would have won $1 and 31 cents.
20:43But you deserve what you deserve to win $1 and 30 cents.
20:46Like that, you know what guys should, I mean, do you know what is, you know, what is obviously so fucking funny is there's no shot.
20:55I would have stayed with the zeros from Ted, Hurst and Kate on.
20:59And I'm, yeah, you would have done something stupid, but, but no, because I would have swapped to Bo Nix and Jalen
21:07Waddle, which is what I did in all my tournament teams, which means I would have won.
21:12Yeah. That's dude. Okay. Uh, that's, that's tough. We missed a, we missed a Davis gets there with the swap week.
21:19Hate it. All right. So Nate, I gotta say, who can Akua in cash games on draft Kings.com?
21:25I think this was a brilliant move in tournaments.
21:28I think I, it's something that I did. I planned to play Pook on some teams.
21:33I totally agreed with your thinking. Like Pook is going to be unowned, yada, yada, all this, all that.
21:39I don't, um, I don't think, I think your, your logic is, is sound.
21:44I like the Bo Nix play. I think that, um, I think that Pooka in the flex is crazy bad.
21:51I mean, yes. I think there's, there's something to this idea of like when Pooka is one of, if not, he's one
21:58of the most talented receivers in the league and top five talented receivers in the league.
22:03Um, and you expect him to be at full workload, which he was, he ended up getting 11 targets for another 35%
22:10targets for outrun with a, uh, nearly 0.8 whopper.
22:13Uh, I'll take it. I mean, playing him, I got, I got him and him and I'm a rock.
22:19I mean, there's playing him over CMC is fucking crazy.
22:23It's crazy, Nate. It's crazy, dude. Bonkers brother. Bonkers.
22:26No, I, I, no. Pooka in this spot, if we all went wrong and Pooka was healthy, Pooka would have been the play in cash.
22:34No, I, look, I agree. You know what? Play him over Bijan.
22:38There's no Devante. All of the end zone risk that, that Pooka normally carries is not there.
22:43Kyron is in the doghouse. This was. Davis Allen scored two touchdowns.
22:47What are you talking about? Dude, CMC, CMC outscored Pooka and CMC was gone for half the goddamn game.
22:54Like unbelievable. Nate. Dude, no, no, no. CMC, the Pooka thing.
22:57Pooka with no Devante and Kyron in the doghouse is legitimately like one of the best plays.
23:03And the fact that it's like. Why was Kyron in the doghouse?
23:07Because he was talking bad in the locker room.
23:10McVay's mad at him. He's, he was, he was half benched this game.
23:14He was splitting with Corum. You're, you're, you're, you're touching too much grass, bro.
23:19You gotta take a step back. No, you, you guys gotta get out a little bit.
23:24I seriously, this Pooka's thing was a smash. You guys have to.
23:28Nate's telling me, I gotta get out a little bit because I didn't fucking play four wide receivers in cash.
23:34When's the last time it's been correct to play four wide receivers in cash?
23:39Like 2022. Nate, Nate, this is also, frankly, look, I'll even grant you that.
23:44Whatever. St. Brown over CMC. That's, that's where I gotta draw the line.
23:48I gotta draw the line at St. Brown over CMC.
23:51Egregious. I actually, frankly, shout out to Rich hair because I wouldn't have even, I was so perturbed by CMC not being in the lineup.
23:59I didn't even realize that's just a straight up one V one.
24:03You just straight up one V one St. Brown.
24:06There's no way that's good. There's no way there is.
24:10There is no way, man. There's no way. No, no planet, Nate.
24:14No planet. Is that okay? Wait, did you have any money left over in this lineup?
24:19Was there a hundred leftover? Or was it? I don't even know.
24:23I, again, it doesn't matter because CMC was 7,600.
24:26No, I'm telling you. But what I'm saying is he's 200 less than I'm on raw.
24:31He could have gotten the Titans defense. I can't remember the last time I played a non-optimized lineup.
24:37Like this was literally just me manually going into the user and like, I'm clicking around.
24:42I'm going, I'm going to get the most expected production out of this line.
24:47I just will. And this is, this is the kind of shit.
24:51Let me just say, this is the kind of shit that I've been doing.
24:55Okay. Yeah. I'm just like, this is a, this is some real Sammy fucking my kids hanging.
25:01Yeah. I got kids running around me and I'm like, you know what?
25:05You know what? I could get B. John, I'm on raw and Puka all in the same lineup.
25:11Like the rest, the rest be damned. I'm going to do it.
25:15And cause those guys are just going to like smash everybody.
25:19And it's just like terrible play. Like, I mean, Nate, how do you play?
25:23How do you play a mon raw over CMC?
25:26What'd you do that for? I would do it again.
25:29No, I would genuinely play the team again. I would genuinely play the team again.
25:34No, no, Nate, this is fucking crazy. Oh my God.
25:38He's doubling down. He's doubling down. I'm on rock.
25:41I got 11. You're telling me I get 22 targets.
25:44CMC had like seven or eight targets and he was gone half the game, bro.
25:49Like they had no other players. Clearly they were going to do everything through Kittle and CMC.
25:54Like that, of course they were going to do that.
25:58CMC had 14 points on the first drive, Nate.
26:01You lived, you could have eaten a 50 burger.
26:04You could have taken a 50 burger from CMC to the chin.
26:08No, dude, this is okay. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not giving in here.
26:12I like, no, I am not. Nate just, I can't beat.
26:16He's like, forget the projections. I want to play Puka Nakua.
26:19Nobody else is going to play Puka. Puka is going to snatch and I'm going to win the whole slate in cash.
26:27Like Nate, dude, you are off your rocker. You live to tell about it.
26:31You can't keep getting away with it, but yet you did.
26:35I don't, I don't know how you're justifying this after the fact.
26:39I mean, we're on what year of this is the podcast or is this like, this is like, this is like, this
26:46is like your, this is like your 12th. Yeah.
26:49Okay. All right. All right. Nate's 12 year streak of not taking the L is intact.
26:54We're good to go. No, I think that's not fair.
26:58Puka didn't even need to be competitive in this game.
27:01If they need Puka, he would have had three touchdowns.
27:04I believe to be fair, Nate did take the L in his third consecutive week of getting four points from Jacoby Myers.
27:11I think, I think in the third, I think the third week, I believe it was the week before he was traded to the Jaguars.
27:20I think Nate said, okay. All right. I think that's a little fucked up.
27:24I think I had some Gino Smith double triple quad stacks in cash three weeks in a row or something.
27:31No, I, I'm Nate. I just like, actually, like I didn't even realize until going through your lineup play by play that you played CMC over St.
27:40Brown or St. Brown over CMC. I mean, it's just completely insane.
27:44Uh, Mr. Whirling Dervish, you played Jordan Love, Christian McCaffrey, Jaquavius, Woody Marks, Amon-Ra St.
27:49Brown Brown, Matthew Golden, Ted Hurst, third George Kittle, Braylon Allen in the Dolphins defense.
27:53I don't hate this lineup nearly as much as I, as I thought I would.
27:58I thought I would hate a cottonless lineup, uh, more.
28:02Cause to me, curious your guys, how you guys thought this.
28:05I thought Hurst was more fragile than Otten of, of the two.
28:09It's just, it was harder to fill a wide receiver spot, but if you weren't playing Bijan, like Nate, are you kind
28:16of having the same thought of I am is like, where did Sammy's money go?
28:21I think this is the third week of this year where I think drafting went into Sammy's account and like some setting
28:29in the API where he only gets 48,500. No, I look at the lineup and I'm like, what, where did it go?
28:36So he plays. No, last week, last week I played so bad and I took the L.
28:41I said, I played bad, all this stuff. This week, I definitely played the best of the three of us.
28:48Like, I don't think there's any question about that.
28:51See, I I'm going to, I'm going to go ahead and disagree because you have Woody Marks in your lineup.
28:58So I think that. Okay. This is a fair critique because Woody Marks is.
29:02Braylon Allen is bad. Woody freaking Marks. No, no, no.
29:05He's got, he's got Braylon. I have Braylon Allen.
29:08He played them both. Oh, you faded B. John.
29:11Oh my. Fading. No, no. Nate. No, Nate. Nate's overreacting.
29:15Nate's overreacting. I'm fading. B. John is fine. No, fading B.
29:18John without Brian Robinson is not fine in any way, shape or form in this spot.
29:24No, it's. Thank you. No, you guys, you guys, you guys are insane about this B.
29:29John thing. Fading B. John with no Brian Robinson is.
29:32Okay. Fading B. John with no Brian Robinson. All a good play.
29:36Khalil. Khalil Herbert took every touch that, that, that Brian Robinson would add every single one.
29:41He got like, he got like nine touches. That is correct.
29:45That is correct. Touchdown. Yeah. No, it, it, it doesn't, it doesn't matter.
29:49So, so Woody Marks, let's talk about Woody Marks for a second.
29:53Cause Woody Marks does suck. He's always, he continues to suck.
29:57Yeah. He's so bad. 19 carries and well, a target, right?
30:00I mean, this, this is a, this is a fine play for 5,600 and you're, you're just getting like plenty of workload that Jawar Jordan was out.
30:09David Montgomery was out there playing a shit ass giants team at home in the dome.
30:14I think Woody Marks was a, was a totally fine play.
30:18He was, he was totally, he was totally fine.
30:21I don't, I don't disagree, but I think what I would have done if I was looking to not do this is
30:28I, I wouldn't have played a Hearst or Otten.
30:31I think if I was looking to, if I was looking to do that, I think I would have just done Nick's
30:38well, probably honestly, probably Nick's Waddle, right? Nick's Waddle instead of Love Hearst.
30:43Isn't that better to just, to just get off the, yeah.
30:46I mean, not, not playing Hearst is definitely good.
30:49I, I legit, I legit thought Hearst was a good play.
30:53I mean, Hearst, you know, that game went wonky.
30:56I don't think we can take any L's here.
30:59Um, that being said, Nate, you, I think you were late when I said like Kate Otten get his projection, like those
31:06three for 36 or four for 28 every week, like every week.
31:10I thought he was legit capped at like 7.6 fantasy points.
31:14And I didn't feel like putting that into my lineup.
31:17Like I just, I just didn't. Um, I, I thought this, you know, I, I, I had the option to do, I
31:24think it was Otten and Bijan instead of like Marks and, uh, well, yeah, that's what everyone else did.
31:30Yeah. And I just thought, you know what? I'd rather have two 2020 touchbacks than Bijan and a tight end with zero upside.
31:38Um, and I do it again. I think that was sharp.
31:42I, I don't know. And I, and I wasn't playing 0.5 yard, a dot Bo Nix.
31:47Like that, that wasn't an option for me. So I'm glad people did it again.
31:52You know, Bo Nix was definitely, Bo Nix was definitely an option.
31:56He definitely was definitely in play. I, I, I don't hate the Woody Marks thing as much as I'm giving you crap
32:03for, because you also did play Braylon, but, but I, to do that without getting Puka feels crazy.
32:09You, you paid down at the two running back value positions.
32:12And what did it get you? Hurst and Amon Ra.
32:16Like, so it's like, I don't know if I'm paying down at both of those running back value positions, I'm a hundred percent getting Puka.
32:24So I just see Puka and Bijan different than you two.
32:28And I just like, yeah, Puka and Bijan, their workload is, is like.
32:32Nate, whatever, whatever, I don't care. I'm giving you, I'm giving you the dunce cap of the day for fucking not playing Christian McCaffrey, dude.
32:40It's completely insane. I mean, McCaffrey in this spot at this price, what is he?
32:457,600? Like $7,600 McCaffrey? Third highest team total of the slate in the dome.
32:50Just like, dude, it's, it's, I actually can't believe it.
32:53Yeah, you're, dude, you're so lucky that CMC didn't just windmill dunk your bankroll away today.
32:58You, you really, you really are. You really are.
33:01But whatever. We know he's not good. We know he's not going to take the L.
33:06So now, you know what? I think Puka could have easily put up 35 here.
33:11I've done enough gloating. You guys can now point and laugh at me because holy shit did I play bad in guaranteed prize pool tournaments on DraftKings.com today.
33:21I will go ahead and pull up. Here we go.
33:24Let's, let's see. Let's find my team in the red zone because I don't even know what I played in here.
33:31But man, I bet it's terrible. Minus 29% field aware ROI.
33:34Sounds about right. Low correlation edge. Bad independent field ROI.
33:38I was, you know, it's funny. Simmed well pre-lock.
33:41Yeah. Because zero duplication cost. You didn't have to worry about that.
33:45And this lineup was 121 actual points. Jordan Love, Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard, which, oh boy, did I think that was sharp, man.
33:52I thought, I thought, oh, dude, Chuba, so sharp.
33:55No one's going to play him. Everyone's playing. Everyone's playing.
33:58Everyone's playing. Woody Marks, dude. Gotta play. Gotta play.
34:01So bad. So bad. J-Mo. Shout out to J-Mo.
34:04Jalen Waddle. Ask me how that went. Ask me how the Jalen Waddell play went, boys.
34:09He had like, I don't know what, four for 38 and got hurt.
34:14Four for 38 with the injury. He absolutely loved to see it.
34:18Did he actually get injured? He did. He did, yeah.
34:21Oh, yeah. Not a bad. Oh, yeah. I'm like an end around and he fumbled and then got hurt for his efforts.
34:28Now, this is, you know, another really interesting thing, which is that Waddell also, because there are so many dipshits like me
34:35who are stupid, that also play Jalen Waddell because they were like, dude, Bo Nix can't possibly be this bad.
34:42Right? And Jalen Waddell, the peripheral numbers for Jalen Waddell, they're fine.
34:46It's okay. You can play Jalen Waddell. You can't.
34:49You can't play Jalen Waddell. I also played Tyler Higbee on this team.
34:53Sharp. Absolute. No, no, not sharp because it turns out.
34:56Kobe Parkinson, 48 yards, Davis Allen, two touchdowns. I played a lot of Tyler Higbee on prize picks today.
35:03Don't love to see it. And then I played, I played Braylon Allen and I correlated with the, with the Jets.
35:10Yeah. Just like was a no hoper. Now the reason why there's still chalk on this team, like why I didn't swap
35:17off of Jordan Love was because I didn't play on this team.
35:21I did not play Hearst and I did not play Otten.
35:24So I thought, Hey man, like it's, it's fine.
35:27Right. You don't, you don't play Hearst Otten. You can kind of, you can kind of do whatever you want.
35:34Um, which I thought was, was okay. Now the other lineup I want to pull up.
35:39Did you guys play in this, uh, $150 Millie?
35:42No. But a hundred and fifty. Yeah. I thought it was $150 to enter, uh, 19,000, I think total entry slots.
35:49And then I thought it was like, I, I thought, I missed it.
35:53Yeah. I didn't even see it. Are you guys serious?
35:57It was like literally, it was like literally the top bar in the lobby all week.
36:02I literally don't know how you would have possibly missed this.
36:06There you go. This is me. I wouldn't have won.
36:09So it's cool, but I would have played. The 2.25 Millie mid season warmup millionaire, $1 million to first.
36:15Hmm. Yeah, no, I didn't. So here is a team that I did do a swap on.
36:21And I think I was, I was most certainly right to do it.
36:25So I come into this game, Titans defense, five points, 22 points from Braylon.
36:30Uh, I played 21% on Kate Otten with a zero, zero percent owned or a zero points from Ted Hurst.
36:36Uh, I swapped from golf St. Brown something. I don't remember exactly the specifics.
36:41Um, but I kept Gibson cause the whole, the whole plan for the whole plan for this team was for it to be a lion's onslaught.
36:49I wanted to make my guy Nate proud. I think it, it might've even been golf St.
36:55Brown waddle or something, something like that, or sorry, golf St.
36:58Brown James. No, this is obviously what it was.
37:01It was golf Gibbs St. Brown golden. And then I, and then I swapped off golden to waddle, uh, St.
37:08Brown to Puka, uh, golf to Knicks is, is what I did on this one.
37:13I mean, I actually thought that was a, a pretty good swap, but I don't know.
37:18Like, were you guys going through and swapping off of first Otten teams?
37:22Cause I was, cause I was just like, there's just no, I'm not even going to min cash with these jabronis.
37:29Like I'm not even, even if I get 45 from what I'm like, I got to do something else.
37:36No, no, I didn't play any Kate Otten. Like zero Kate Otten for me.
37:40Thanks. Yeah. Shout out to you. I'm not going to win a goddamn tournament with Kate Otten in the lineup.
37:47Like lost your damn mind. Well, valid. Uh, thanks.
37:50No, I mean, I wonder what I just, I haven't even looked.
37:54I wonder what team won. Uh, shout out to Swidby for shipping the mid season Millie with a Sean Watson, Christian McCaffrey,
38:01Tony Pollard, Pukinacua, T Higgins, Casey Concepcion, George Kittle, Harold Fannin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.
38:06Damn. This lineup is sharp as fuck, dude. This line is actually sick.
38:10Yeah. Shout out. Yeah. This is, this is beautiful, dude.
38:13A freaking Browns onslaught with a Pollard bring back.
38:16Um, notice he does have Christian McCaffrey on it as the good chalk though.
38:21Notice. It's all no notice. He also has Pukinacua.
38:24He does. Notice he has Pukinacua, dude. The lineup.
38:27If you actually look at the context, the lineup, it's better that he has Pukinacua in there, dude.
38:33Um, all right. Did you guys play anything? Did you guys play in the big red zone?
38:38Nate, did you? Um, I think I did all the spies.
38:42I don't think I did red zones this week.
38:45Yeah. I got to go to the spy. I played terribly.
38:49I mean, I, I literally had Hearst everywhere. I don't think I cashed one of my higher dollar.
38:54I was going to say, I legit, I legit went, I will show you guys if I can find my contest page somewhere.
39:02I'll legit show to, I look, I show you the good things.
39:06I show you the bad things, boys. I legit, I think went over.
39:10Uh, oh no. I lost. Okay. Here we go.
39:13All right. There you go. Jordan love team. Zero dollars.
39:16Jared golf team. Zero dollars. Next team. Zero dollars.
39:19Stafford team. Zero dollars. Dude. The stat. I, I swapped into a bunch of Stafford late as well because I was like,
39:27I was like, oh, dude, like why can't Stafford throw for 304?
39:31Which I think he, he did. Did he throw for four or three?
39:35Just three. I think three. I think three. I'm glad to see a Christian Kirk, uh, play.
39:40Okay. Okay. I did play Christian Kirk in a, in a lineup as well.
39:45No, but this is actually, this is actually tilting the shit out of me because they, the broadcast just said this very offhanded.
39:53They were like, oh yeah. Um, they, uh, they told us he's the, just the emergency wide receiver.
39:59You didn't want you, no one, no one could report that beforehand.
40:03No one, no one wanted to report that he was just, uh, the emergency receiver.
40:07What, what the fuck? Ah, so tilting. Um, okay.
40:10Yeah. It would have been, it would have been, it would have been so sick to flip over Jordan Watkins in one year lineups instead.
40:19Just, uh, one of my, one of my, one of, uh, uh, one of the, one of the ETR guys, uh, easy.
40:26He played a bunch of Pollard today and he had a, he, he did have a Jordan Watkins team.
40:32So shout out, shout out to anyone who had the foresight, um, to play.
40:37Even, even cowing would have been, would have been pretty saucy.
40:40All right, Sammy, you sent me a team. Uh, what contest is this in?
40:45Uh, I think this is in the big spy.
40:48All right. So read, read it off to the people and tell them why you played it this way.
40:54Okay. So I did a Burrow, Chase and Higgins.
40:57I've got it pulled up. You can, I, I'm, I'm typing it.
41:01Oh, okay, cool. So, so yeah. So I did a, a Cincy stack with, you know, with, with these guys, it feels
41:08like Burrow just like always torches Baltimore. I mean, he does.
41:12I don't know if it's true, but it definitely does feel that way.
41:16Oh, it's true, man. It's true. I mean, you bring it up.
41:20I mean, he, he destroys Baltimore and he wasn't having a great game, but he ended up smashing pretty hard.
41:27Um, I played CMC and marks and I felt bad about that.
41:31And, and I wanted to put in Braylon instead of marks.
41:34Um, and I kept simming it and the Sims just liked it so much better with marks in there.
41:40And I was like, ah, and I should have just, I K beat it.
41:45Honestly. Um, yeah, would, would, would have made a difference of, of a few dollars for sure.
41:51So, um, but yeah, you know, I played Ted Hearst.
41:54I thought, I thought Hearst was set up and again, I'm not going to take like too many L's on.
42:01Yeah. The, the, the buck stuff just cause that game was so insanely wonky.
42:05Uh, but I didn't want to like have lineups without Kittle and McCaffrey.
42:09So I just played those guys. And then, uh, our boy, Tyler Higby, uh, played him as well.
42:15I just thought, you know, we're going to double tight end Tyler Higby, like pretty set up.
42:21Um, and you know, he was just part of a rotation as he is.
42:26And we're kind of chasing that dragon from like weeks three to five where he did really good.
42:31Um, but they're clearly spreading it around their side ends.
42:35Davis Allen with a couple. I actually don't, I actually don't think there's any of that.
42:40I literally think it's all entirely completely random. And that if you dug under the hood, like I bet when I do
42:47my Rick recap video tomorrow, it's going to be like, Oh yeah.
42:51Higby ran a 77% of the routes. Parkinson ran 52%.
42:54Davis Allen ran 41%. Um, like it's, I bet, I bet it's just going to be totally random.
43:00There you go. Well, well, it's, it's going to be random in like a way that we probably can't predict.
43:07Like it's, it's going to be, they're going to like run their routes and staffer is just going to have his reads.
43:14You know what I mean? And like, if they play it a certain way, it goes to the, the short guy played a certain way.
43:22It goes to the medium guy, but they're doing like this three tight end bunch a ton and just running all sorts of crazy routes off of it.
43:32And yeah, I think it's probably not like really predictable.
43:35Yeah. Uh, all right. Negative 1.4% SIM ROI, uh, with, I'm assuming that we have actually, I know this because I tried to sim in a bunch.
43:44We run the Sims did not have Higby as a very good play.
43:48Had him as, as like, kind of like a break-even play and, and a little bit, um, too owned.
43:54So did they have Fuka as a great play?
43:57Um, we had his projection a little degraded. Um, got it.
44:01So where did the, where did the implied points go?
44:04You know what? You know what? No, no, we didn't.
44:07Puka. I bet if we run here, Nate, give me a team.
44:11Cause I bet if we run something with Puka, I bet it'll sim unreal.
44:16Let me see. Where's my, give me, give me, give me whatever team you want to run.
44:22Um, recent. Puka. Um, here's. Uh, but I, I assume the reason why the Higby stuff said is like, whatever, whatever our
44:29optimal probability for, for Higby was that the ownership would just going to be a little bit too high.
44:35All of my Puka stuff. I didn't play much Puka in the high dollar stuff.
44:40I mean, it was mostly, uh, lower entry stuff.
44:43I played very poorly. Um, so I don't really have any good Puka teams to sim.
44:48Um, the one team that we, I mean, I guess here's what I played in the, the same spot.
44:54Is this the three 50 case by Sammy? Yes.
44:57Uh, so the three 50 case by I played, what did I play in that one?
45:03Um, Baker, Bijan, CMC, Puka, Godwin, Hurst, Otten, Kyron, Titans.
45:06Bijan, CMC, Puka, Hurst, Otten, Titans without just eating the chalk.
45:10And then who was the flex and third receiver?
45:12Uh, Godwin and then Kyron. Godwin and then Kyron.
45:15I, all right. I'm going to guess this actually does sim pretty well because the, the best lineup that I got to
45:23sim this morning, that the best lineup was playing these fricking jabronis with, uh, Baker.
45:28Baker. It was, it was, that was, that was the way that it worked best.
45:33I mean, I had a lot of, that's why I, that's why I did so poorly in tournaments.
45:38I had a lot of Baker, a lot of Hurst, a lot of, um, Godwin and a lot of Otten.
45:45And so, I mean, Baker coming in at 1% when all these, when all these guys are on just makes absolutely no sense to me.
45:53I mean, it's like these guys don't, I don't know if, if these guys were to pay off the chance of Baker's also getting there was really high.
46:02And so, yeah, I thought Baker was a good play at his ownership.
46:07Uh, he came in, yeah, super low. Uh, and then I figured I could get a bunch of chalk around it with CMC B.
46:15John. Um, and, and I just, yeah, went kind of high projection around it.
46:19And so, yeah, feel, feel pretty good when I can get that low of a quarterback on stack on something like that.
46:26Um, so like, I guess the way that I fundamentally view this because I just don't feel comfortable just pressing the button
46:34and just playing the optimized teams, you know, is I view Hurst and Otten as ways to get in fancy plays that I want to play.
46:42You know what I'm saying? Like, I'm like, oh, like sick.
46:46Like three K guys are available. So now I can do whatever my love Watson gold and stuff, instead of thinking back like, okay, if these guys, wow.
46:55Yeah. Okay. Sims are really well made 23% same ROI 1.5% top one.
46:59Um, which is, yeah. Puka Puka was such a good tournament play.
47:03Like he was, you know, it cash cash is a little tough.
47:07Um, I get it. Like he's never a bad cash play, but certainly with the calf stuff, he left.
47:13Well, I remember Nate was too fucking scared to do this.
47:17On week three. And I, I was the one who played $7,500 Puka.
47:21So anyone, if anyone has the right to say when Puka is a cash play, I think it's me.
47:28But I think there was a difference that week.
47:31I feel like Devante was playing and. Devante is irrelevant to Puka Nakua.
47:35Uh, that that's incorrect, but. That's literally Devante is the target in the red zone.
47:40I don't know how you could. Well, well, so yes to no.
47:44I mean, they, they definitely switched up. Like they they've been playing Puka.
47:48Like last year, they did a lot of stuff where Puka wasn't on the field.
47:53When they were like in that gold zone. And this year they play, they've been playing Puka, even with Devante out there,
48:00they played them a lot more near the goal line.
48:03Um, so yes, that's true. But then also Devante is certainly still a big red zone target.
48:09Um, I mean, Puka's, Puka's touchdown expectation goes up significantly with Devante off the field.
48:14Like it's, it's significant. I mean, Devante Adams has how many, how many receiving touchdowns this year?
48:20Right. It's not like he goes out and all of a sudden those go to mum field or something like that.
48:26Like maybe they get spread amongst the tight ends a little bit, but yeah, they go to Davis Allen.
48:33But it's not even like the plays are for him to score.
48:37It's not like he randomly busts in there. It's like, they'll get on the three yard line and it's like, this is a Devante play.
48:45So it's, there is so much expected touchdowns that go Devante's way that with him off the field, Puka's projection goes through the roof.
48:53I mean, it's, it's, it's unreal. So I, yeah, I'm not, I mean, I know I've like beat this horse to death,
49:00so I'm not going to say it again, but Puka was a great play.
49:05No, tell it to the, tell it to the bank examiner, Nate.
49:08Yeah, tell it to the bank examiner where we all got shut out.
49:13Yeah, where we, we made a combined $0 in GPPs.
49:16Yeah, not, not ideal, but not great for the go cast, but we, what we swept cash.
49:22So, you know, that, Hey, that's all I want.
49:25If I can, if I can pay for all my bad GPP lineups by beating a bunch of knuckle draggers who play
49:32the dolphins defense and cash, then let me, let me have it boys.
49:36All right, everyone make sure to like the video, make sure to subscribe to the channel and I'll be back with you guys tomorrow.
