Top-10 Takeaways - Seth McGowan Future Bell Cow + Jordan Watkins Future Touchdowns

Adonai Mitchell has re-emerged in the Jets offense, running routes at a similar rate to Omar Cooper, signaling a meaningful pass-catching role that will compete for targets previously available to Breece Hall.

Satellite back on the Saints who will benefit from the team's inability to run the ball; has been putting up over 10 fantasy points in recent weeks and will remain useful as the team gets creative in the passing game.

Rams running back hitting in plays of the week; both he and Kyron Williams are commanding targets; described as storm clouds gathering (positive trajectory); play to go to especially with Puka Nacua as only healthy wide receiver, forcing targets to running backs; both backs getting opportunities in great spot for running game.

Braylon Allen completed the Voltron in week seven with a 24% target share against the Dolphins, officially establishing himself as an NFL workhorse. In the last four games, Allen has 357 rushing yards (2nd among NFL RBs), 5.0 yards per carry (tied 5th), 22 missed tackles forced (1st in league), 4.21 yards after contact per attempt (2nd), 10+ yard runs (1st), 15+ yard runs (1st), and 19 first downs (4th in NFL). Matt Kelley notes Allen is 22 years old with college-level athleticism putting up first-round NFL draft pick stats. Allen is destined for a big running back contract as a primary back elsewhere and should be valued like a 2027 first-rounder in dynasty.

Matt Kelley refused to trade Braylon Allen despite conventional dynasty strategy suggesting a sell-high on a breakout fourth-round running back posting RB1 weeks. Kelley argues Allen is 'freakish talent' comparable to 'Derrick Henry with better hands,' highlighting his elite backup status and future bell cow potential. Allen posted a 24% target share in a recent game and achieved 100% opportunity share among running backs, demonstrating elite receiving and usage metrics that justify holding him over a late first-round pick in dynasty.

Braylon Allen posted a 100% opportunity share among running backs in a recent game, an exceptionally rare achievement; if extrapolated across a full 17-game season, his one-month production would yield approximately 1,500 rushing yards, demonstrating elite efficiency on a Jets team with a functional (if not elite) running game.

Matt Kelley asserts that Braylon Allen has earned a significant role as an early-down grinder, which will limit Breece Hall's ceiling when Hall returns from injury; Allen's emergence constrains the touch distribution Hall can expect, creating a ceiling cap on Hall's fantasy upside.

Breece Hall is the current starter for the New York Jets, but Braylon Allen is on his way out of the team as a backup. Matt Kelley notes that as long as Hall remains the starter, Allen will eventually leave for a big running back contract as the primary back somewhere else in the NFL. This suggests Hall's role is secure for now but Allen's emergence threatens the long-term backfield hierarchy.

Matt Kelley projects that Breece Hall faces a touch squeeze upon his return from injury; the emergence of Braylon Allen as an early-down grinder and Adonai Mitchell as a pass-catcher will siphon carries and targets, reducing Hall's ceiling and forcing a downward revision in seasonal rankings and dynasty value despite his floor remaining intact via pass-game work.

Moving down in rankings; contrasted with Scadaboo and Judkins who are moving up; represents declining trajectory in dynasty rankings.

Matt Kelley acquired Bryce Young in a dynasty trade where he gave up Lamar Jackson and big pieces to acquire multiple first rounders. Kelley notes it's not over yet with Young and plans to give him a ride at quarterback and super flex, indicating cautious optimism but uncertainty about Young's ultimate fantasy value.

Matt Kelley highlights Caleb Douglas as doing 'a lot with a little'—scoring two touchdowns and a 63-yard catch despite not being peppered with targets or having a huge target share; Kelley argues Douglas's outside receiver technician profile (compared to a taller DeVante Smith) has a much better probability of breaking out and finding a real NFL role than Chris Bell's manufactured touches, and states Douglas should now rank ahead of Bell in dynasty rankings.

Matt Kelley argues Chris Bell, despite having exciting Debo Samuel-like YAC ability, has a lower probability of hitting at the NFL level compared to Caleb Douglas's outside technician profile; Kelley states Bell's entire case for ranking ahead of Douglas in dynasty has 'evaporated' and that Bell relies on manufactured touches and targets rather than organic role development.

Dalton Schultz can no longer be trusted week-to-week due to excessive target competition in Houston's receiver room. He has way too much competition for targets.

Will return to take away inefficient carries from Woody Marks on the Texans, reclaiming his role in the backfield.

Montgomery's return will take away inefficient carries from the current Houston backfield, reducing fantasy production for the backup running back currently receiving those touches.

Tight end who gets touchdowns for Rams; however, insufficient target volume to prevent running backs Corum and Kyron from dominating receiving opportunities; not a primary receiving option.

Denzel Boston has a body type bias in ranking services but is not as productive as Casey Concepcion in actual usage metrics. Matt Kelley notes that Boston ranks ahead of Concepcion in crowdsource ranking services like KeepTradeCut in dynasty, but Concepcion has a higher target rate (35% targets per route run) because he is a much better separator. Kelley disagrees with Boston's ranking ahead of Concepcion, calling it silly.

Matt Kelley and Chuck recommended benching Garrett Wilson in a recent week on the starter stream show, suggesting it was a 'bench Garrett Wilson week.'

Matt Kelley frames George Kittle's performance as a strong process play despite disappointing results: Kittle earned 10 targets, posted over 10 yards per reception, and delivered 14 PPR fantasy points, but Kelley had projected a 20-point performance. Kelley emphasizes that one additional touchdown would have hit the 20-point ceiling, and advises confidence in Kittle's process going forward despite the week's shortfall.

JJ McCarthy played well against Houston, posting efficient performance and positive EPA in that game, suggesting the Texans' defense is exploitable.

JK Dobbins scored a touchdown in week seven but the underlying metrics show Jonah Coleman is superior. Matt Kelley notes Dobbins had 6.0 yards per carry, but Coleman looks like he has more juice and is better on a per-carry basis. Dobbins played more snaps than Coleman but Coleman was used in pass protection situations (trust-earning snaps), while Dobbins was not as heavily featured.

Called out as a successful play of the week pick; part of strong performance on plays of the week show.

Jalen Wright does not matter in Miami's backfield despite being named the starter by the team and being more efficient in a small sample last year. Matt Kelley notes that Wright is not a bell cow back and that picking him over Ollie Gordon is a mistake—misused analytics. Wright played in week seven but it did not matter as Gordon dominated with 80% of snaps before garbage time.

Matt Kelley references Jeremiah Love as a comparison point, predicting that Seth McGowan will outscore him this season, suggesting Love may underperform relative to expectations or McGowan's emerging role.

Jerry Judy was supplanted by Casey Concepcion early in the season. Matt Kelley notes that Concepcion did not have to wait for Judy to be injured or for Concepcion to supplant Judy—it all happened in the first few weeks of the season as Concepcion emerged as the primary receiver.

Jonah Coleman returned from IR in week seven and showed superior efficiency to JK Dobbins despite not producing big fantasy numbers. Matt Kelley notes Coleman had better yards per carry than Dobbins and was used in pass protection situations (trust-earning snaps), doubling RJ Harvey's snaps. Coleman is the recipe for a bell cow back and should be aggressively pursued in shallow leagues where he is 34% owned on Yahoo. Kelley advises not dropping Coleman if he gets hurt or doesn't produce immediately.

Matt Kelley expresses strong conviction that Jordan Watkins will be featured in upcoming plays of the week analysis, stating he would start Watkins against all opponents except bye weeks in deep leagues. Kelley emphasizes Watkins' performance was "really, really good" and highlights his ability to make plays on the outside as a difference-maker in the 49ers' receiving core, though a controversial catch reversal cost him additional production.

Jordan Watkins ran fewer routes than Brandon Cooks in the game discussed, which surprised Matt Kelley, though Watkins had run significantly more routes the previous week. This route-running variance suggests inconsistent offensive deployment despite his demonstrated ability to make plays on the outside.

Matt Kelley references Jordan Watkins as a player who would have outscored Buka Okoro in a recent week, suggesting Watkins has been producing at a level that exceeds expectations or at least exceeds what Okoro delivered when injured.

Matt Kelley notes Josh Downs has underperformed in recent weeks, describing him as someone who has 'done less with more' this year; Kelley was burned by starting him in the PlayerProfiler staff league the week before last.

Strong sell-high candidate; the vast majority of his fantasy points came as a receiver, and he posted only around three yards per carry for the Packers, consistent with the team's run-blocking issues; already showed efficiency leaks in 2025, so no improvement expected in 2026.

Justice Hill has not had as productive a season as he had last season, a consequence of the Ravens' target concentration on Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane. Matt Kelley notes that all auxiliary pass catchers on the Ravens—including Hill—face a Jacoby Lane problem as the offense evolves to feature just Flowers and Lane hogging all targets.

Satellite back on a team that can't run the ball straight ahead; will get creative passing opportunities and capable of 10-plus fantasy points in weeks as the season plays out; redraft target in seasonal leagues.

Post-Achilles rupture, quarterback is even more inclined to target him underneath rather than downfield; limits his ceiling and role in the passing game.

Rams running back featured in plays of the week show; both he and Blake Corum are hitting; commanding targets in addition to rushing role; described as storm clouds gathering (positive trajectory) compared to Mike Allstott and Warwick Dunn; great spot for running game with both backs getting opportunities.

Williams is commanding targets in the Rams offense alongside Coram; McVay's creative play-calling with split backfield formations featuring both running backs is expected to continue, positioning Williams for consistent target volume and offensive involvement.

Matt Kelley traded away Lamar Jackson in a dynasty deal where he acquired Michael Penix Jr. and Bryce Young in exchange for Jackson and big pieces, plus multiple first rounders. This suggests Kelley was willing to move on from Jackson's value in favor of younger quarterback prospects.

Mark Andrews and other tight ends on the Ravens have a Jacoby Lane problem; Andrews had five fantasy points in week seven as the emergence of Lane and the continued dominance of Zay Flowers limit target volume for auxiliary pass catchers. Matt Kelley notes that the natural evolution of this run-first offense will feature just Flowers and Lane hogging all targets, squeezing out production for tight ends and other receivers.

Marvin Harrison Jr. scored in the same game where Nico Collins dusted out, demonstrating he is getting red zone touches in Houston's receiver rotation.

Matt Kelley praises Michael Penix Jr. as the engine of the Atlanta Falcons franchise, noting he is moving past his Kenny Pickett comparison and is significantly better than Tua Tagovailoa. Kelley highlights Penix's ability to sustain drives and push the football to the perimeter. Since taking over in week three, Penix has led Atlanta to wins over Green Bay (35-14), New Orleans (45-24), and San Francisco (29-20), with close losses to Baltimore and Chicago. Kelley notes Penix was available on waivers in 10-team super flex and two-QB leagues, and is rising in value.

Collins is being deployed as a field stretcher (running go routes on roughly half his routes, Taequann Thornton level) rather than as a volume alpha receiver, which is problematic given his talent profile. He needs to be fed like a volume alpha X receiver, not deployed like a field stretcher. This deployment mismatch, combined with too many hungry mouths in Houston, is becoming a problem for his fantasy value.

Matt Kelley warns that Nico Collins' fantasy value is at risk as Houston's receiver room is too crowded. Tank Dell had a 43-yard catch, Xavier Hutchinson scored, Marvin Harrison Jr. scored, and Jalen Knoll and Kayshaun Booty combined for two targets in the same game where Collins dusted out. The data suggests Collins could be passed by younger receivers like Casey Concepcion in Dynasty value as target competition intensifies.

Ollie Gordon is a genuine bell cow, playing 42 of 52 snaps before garbage time (80% before garbage time started). Matt Kelley notes Gordon is a 2000-yard rusher from college and the only running back on the roster who can handle an 80% opportunity share when Devon Achane goes down. Despite Jalen Wright being named the starter by Miami and being more efficient in a small sample, Gordon is the workhorse. Kelley notes the Alfred Morris corollary: Malik Willis creates more room to run for Gordon because Willis himself is a threat to run, especially on option plays. Gordon is ranked as one of three bell cow backs (with Jonah Coleman and Braylon Allen) worthy of 40%+ FAB budget.

Matt Kelley highlights Ollie Gordon's snap share as a standout waiver wire acquisition; Gordon posted elite advanced usage statistics comparable to Braylon Allen, positioning him as one of the top running back values available.

Matt Kelley had Ollie Gordon on his dynasty team bench, indicating Gordon was not in his starting lineup despite being rostered, suggesting limited confidence in Gordon's immediate fantasy value or role.

Omar Cooper continues to deliver boom performances and touchdowns, establishing himself as a consistent target in the Jets passing game and a benchmark for route participation rates among pass-catchers.

Clear and obvious buy as a first-round pick; the Patriots' running game cannot get worse, making this an opportunistic buy-low in dynasty leagues with significant upside potential.

Only healthy wide receiver for the Rams; forces target volume to running backs Blake Corum and Kyron Williams due to lack of other receiving options; positions him as primary receiving target.

Nakua played through injury in a critical win against Las Vegas, demonstrating professional commitment; the Rams are using him as an extension of the running game with short intermediate routes and line-of-scrimmage touches to set up blockers, maximizing his value while managing his health.

Had a great game; positioned in tier with Cam Scadaboo as comparable talent profile in dynasty rankings; represents the tier of talent and situation Scadaboo will find himself in.

Rashad Bateman's return in week seven coincided with Jacoby Lane running more routes and receiving more targets than Bateman, marking a demotion in the Ravens' passing game hierarchy. Matt Kelley expected zero targets for Lane upon Bateman's return but was pleasantly surprised by Lane's increased usage, suggesting Bateman's role is being diminished by the rookie's emergence.

Matt Kelley identifies Rhamondre Stevenson as a near-term scoring opportunity on the Patriots, a team with one of the worst run-blocking units in the NFL; Stevenson can generate fantasy points as a receiver despite the team's inability to establish a ground game, making him a satellite back value play.

Can score points as a receiver in the near term on the Patriots despite the team's run-blocking limitations; positioned as a satellite back capable of fantasy production through the passing game.

RJ Harvey played more snaps than Jonah Coleman in week seven, but Coleman doubled Harvey's snaps in pass protection situations. Matt Kelley notes Harvey is not the primary back and is being phased out as Coleman takes over the role.

Williams was highly involved in the Packers game as a desperation stream option with multiple carries and seven receptions in the last two weeks; he specializes in short intermediate routes and is compared favorably to Chris Bell as a more affordable alternative; he was widely available in deep dynasty leagues before activation and represents strong value for streaming purposes.

Matt Kelley mentions Savion Williams alongside Jordan Watkins as a player who would have outscored Buka Okoro in a recent week, indicating Williams is producing at a competitive level.

Matt Kelley predicts that Seth McGowan will somehow outscore Jeremiah Love this year, suggesting McGowan has breakout potential and will outperform expectations relative to a fellow prospect.

Tank Dell had a 43-yard catch in a game where Nico Collins dusted out, demonstrating he is getting opportunities in Houston's crowded receiver room.

Matt Kelley identifies Ted Hurst as a perfect time to buy, suggesting the player's market price or perception has dipped and represents a buying opportunity for fantasy managers.

Terry McLaurin went down with a torn patella after Matt Kelley was offered a 2027 first-rounder plus additional assets (including Braylon Allen) for him in a dynasty trade. Kelley was tempted to accept the deal to get out of McLaurin's aging wide receiver profile but ultimately declined because the trade also required giving up his second-rounder. This was before McLaurin's injury.

Matt Kelley expressed urgency to trade away Terry McLaurin, stating 'I'm rebuilding' and 'This guy's burning a hole in my pocket. I need to get out of Terry McLaurin.' The context suggests McLaurin is viewed as a sell candidate in dynasty, though the specific reasoning beyond rebuild mode is not detailed in this excerpt.

Long-term dynasty buy despite playing on a high ankle sprain all year; will get healthy by the second half of the season, and the Patriots will eventually improve their interior offensive line and commit to the running game, creating significant upside.

Matt Kelley dismisses Tua Tagovailoa as significantly inferior to Michael Penix Jr., citing his five yards per attempt as evidence of poor performance. Kelley expresses frustration with offseason Tua talk and suggests the quarterback should be "shot into the sun," indicating strong negative sentiment on Tagovailoa's fantasy value.

Matt Kelley notes Tyrone Tracy was benched in favor of Cam Scadaboo, describing it as 'incredibly bad timing' for Tracy's career; however, Kelley characterizes Tracy as an all-purpose talent and baseline all-purpose primary back in the league who could command at least a 55% opportunity share.

All-purpose talent with baseline primary back role; can be given at least 55% opportunity share and still provide good fantasy value due to versatility in both receiving and rushing; however, benching suggests role uncertainty going forward.

Wandale Robinson was out-targeted by rookie Alec A.O. Manor in week seven, indicating a shift in the Titans' passing game hierarchy. Matt Kelley highlights this as a watershed moment for Manor's emergence, similar to Jacoby Lane supplanting Rashad Bateman.

Despite getting 100% of running back touches last week, posted only eight fantasy points; the situation is unsustainable because David Montgomery will return and take away inefficient carries, and Marks cannot command the target share once Houston's receivers return from injury.

Xavier Hutchinson scored in the same game where Nico Collins dusted out, showing he is getting red zone opportunities in Houston's receiver rotation.

Zay Flowers is the established number-one receiver in Baltimore's run-first offense. Matt Kelley projects that the long-term evolution of this offense will feature Flowers and Jacoby Lane hogging all targets, making both viable fantasy options despite the low pass volume environment. Flowers had the best training camp in Ravens history per team officials, the same level of praise now being given to Lane.

Matt Kelley traded for Zay Flowers in his dynasty league, indicating he saw value in acquiring Flowers for his roster, though the context suggests this was part of a strategic move in a league where he was 1-6 and seeking to adjust his lineup.