Risers & Fallers - QB/TE ADPs That ESPN Screwed Up
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 18, 2026
Published
Sat, July 18, 2026
27
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
Travis KelceGeorge KittleHarold FanninKyle PittsDallas GoedertJustin HerbertKyler MurrayMalik WillisSam LaPortaTrevor LawrenceC.J. StroudCaleb Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
C.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection0:48
The analyst defends C.J. Stroud's talent, noting that Bobby Sloick got 6,700 yards and 39 touchdowns out of him in two seasons with the Texans, despite scuttlebutt suggesting Stroud might not be a starting NFL quarterback.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveValue0:40
Despite gaps in his intermediate and deep ball accuracy that are covered up by coaching, Caleb Williams at 90th overall is an unbelievable value, and even if he repeats last year's performance it's a steal.
Insight pageDallas Goedert
PositiveValue2:10
ESPN ADP of 95 is 26 spots higher than expert consensus ranking of 122, forcing drafters to take him two full rounds early without an injury discount despite inconsistent production history.
Insight pagePositiveRole2:40
With A.J. Brown gone, Goddert is expected to be a top target earner, but he lacks the yards-after-catch threat of Tucker Kraft and has shown career-low receiving grade and lowest yards per game since rookie season.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeValue0:04
ESPN ADP of 71 is 41 spots ahead of expert consensus ranking of 112, forcing drafters to pay up almost two full rounds despite Achilles injury risk and advanced age entering his 32nd season.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:54
Coming back from an Achilles injury with significant target competition from Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall, and Christian McCaffrey (129 targets), creating risk at a premium cost rather than an injury discount.
Insight pagePositiveProjection1:35
Hall of Fame player who always bounces back from injuries and is on track to play week one, with potential to be great again despite recent setbacks.
Insight pageHarold Fannin
NegativeValue11:30
ESPN ADP of 59 is 13 spots ahead of expert consensus ranking of 72, making him the first tight end discussed going within the first five rounds, forcing early draft capital despite quarterback concerns.
Insight pagePositiveProjection12:10
Outstanding receiver with outstanding yards-after-catch ability, heavy involvement, clear path to every-down role, and athletic profile that translated immediately with bad quarterback play last year.
Insight pageNegativeProjection13:00
Deshaun Watson has never been a highly productive quarterback for the tight end position, and Todd Monken has been inconsistent in tight end usage, making it difficult to count on consistent production.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveValue0:45
Justin Herbert has a 50-spot differential between expert consensus (67) and ESPN ADP (117), going around Steelers defense and Bo Nix, making him a massive value for a quarterback who could win MVP.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:45
The analyst questions whether Justin Herbert will benefit most from the Dolphins' improved offensive line and run game, noting that Tua led the league in passing yards while being closer to 10th in attempts, suggesting the Dolphins may not generate high passing volume.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeValue5:20
ESPN ADP of 61 is 16 spots ahead of expert consensus ranking of 77, forcing drafters to take him around a full round early despite concerns about the quarterback room with Michael Penix and Tua replacing Kirk Cousins.
Insight pagePositiveProjection6:00
Fully healthy entering the season with unbelievable athletic profile, new coaching staff with Kyle Stefanski and Tommy Reese who have strong history of utilizing tight ends, and very little competition outside Drake London and B. John Robinson.
Insight pageNegativeProjection6:50
Major concern about quarterback room without Kirk Cousins; most of his production came with Drake London hurt or sidelined, and the quarterback hurdle with Michael Penix and Tua is significant.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue0:43
Kyler Murray is going a full round later than expert consensus (156 vs. 115), around Jalen Coker and Tyler Shuck, and at that price the analyst is okay with the downside risk given his rushing upside and premier offensive ecosystem.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:44
Kyler Murray has only had two seasons out of seven where he was a great draft pick (2019 and 2020, before COVID), and the analyst is nervous about his consistency and whether he can generate passing production in the Vikings offense.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveSleeper0:47
Malik Willis has a 61-spot differential between expert consensus (127) and ESPN ADP (188), going behind Jerry Judy and Cowboys defense, and the analyst plans to have way more shares of him than expected due to rushing upside and passing efficiency.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:48
The analyst believes Malik Willis could become a league-winner if his passing efficiency from Green Bay transfers to Miami, as Bobby Sloick's offenses have finished 12th-22nd in yards and 13th-19th in points, suggesting Willis could benefit from higher passing volume.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeValue3:30
ESPN ADP of 68 is 20 spots ahead of expert consensus ranking of 88, forcing drafters to pay up almost two full rounds despite competing with Amon Ross, Hank Brown, Jamison Williams, Jameer Gibbs, and Isaiah Pacheco for targets.
Insight pagePositiveProjection4:05
One of the most efficient and athletic tight ends in the league with contingent value if injuries occur to top receivers, and could see increased volume if coaching changes impact target distribution like last season before Dan Campbell took over play calling.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
NegativeValue7:50
ESPN ADP of 81 is 15 spots ahead of expert consensus ranking of 96, forcing drafters to take him a full round and a half early despite clear age-related decline and per-route efficiency drops.
Insight pageNegativeProjection8:30
Age-related decline is clear with per-route efficiencies dropped significantly over previous seasons, and he was only a top five tight end last year despite being productive with Mahomes.
Insight pagePositiveRole9:20
Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is coming in, and the team has added Kenneth Walker as a bell cow, Rasheed Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Taequann Thornton, reducing Kelce's target share and role.
Insight pageNegativeProjection10:10
Got married before the season, which historically correlates with down years or major injuries; recent examples include Travis Hunter, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, and Christian Watson.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue0:41
Trevor Lawrence is going 33 spots lower than expert consensus (109 vs. 76), behind Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Manningway, making him a strong value after winning fantasy playoffs last year with aggressive downfield play and improved rushing ability.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:41
Trevor Lawrence's rushing touchdown production (9 last year, trailing only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts) is unlikely to repeat, as he had 14 rushing TDs over the previous four seasons combined, and the analyst is concerned what happens if that production gets cut in half.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:54Coming up on Risers and Fallers, ESPN has some of the most exploitable quarterback and tight end rankings we've seen since the 2004 Maxim Hot 100.
1:02We'll be going all of them right here on Player Profiler.
1:05All right, ladies and gentlemen, I am Chuck Bass.
1:08Welcome to Risers and Fallers. This will be part two of our ESPN Exploitation of ADPs.
1:13Today we'll be covering quarterbacks and tight ends. I've got a little housekeeping first.
1:17First, I want to apologize for some of the language that was said on last week's show.
1:22I uttered the phrase, cuckoo, cachoo. I've never said that before.
1:26I will never say that again. It's one of the lamest things that anyone has ever said on a podcast.
1:32I don't know where it came from. It might have been my father, who was a Jewish man from New York at
1:38one point in his life, or at least he pretended to be.
1:42I don't know if that snuck in there through bloodlines or maybe the media I'm consuming.
1:47I want to get that out of the way.
1:50Secondly, I want a quick RIP to the NFL hat.
1:53As you can see, I've got the emblem behind me here.
1:56We had an 18-month run out of this hat.
1:5918, one of my favorite numbers for a multitude of reasons.
2:02It's been a good run. It got me through a lot of hard times.
2:07It also got me into a lot of them.
2:10So I'll be looking for a new one here in the future.
2:13If you guys have any recommendations, please send them our way.
2:17Risers and Fallers, the number one podcast for guys who do not care about ranking quarterbacks.
2:22That's the big buzz right now. Let's get the quarterback rankings out.
2:25We've got Jeremy Fowler with the ESPN executives and head coaches rankings.
2:29People are now pushing out their own rankings. I care about who the quarterback four is as much as I care who
2:36the governor of Idaho is or whatever celebrity is starring in the new NCIS because they got accused of sexual harassment in
2:422019 and they need a steady paycheck. If you can win a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold or Jalen Hurts or Joe
2:49Flacco, I don't care who the quarterback seven is.
2:52It's not important for me. How about a fast draft hat?
2:55Wouldn't that be nice if we had a fast draft hat?
2:59That would be lovely. I needed you today. If I'm going to be doing these solo shows, guys, the chat's going to
3:06be ever important for mental health, mental well-being. I've got my AG1.
3:09My electrolytes are in here. My Prozac. My Viagra.
3:12Everything a good Chuck Bass host needs and wants.
3:15But what did you guys show up for today?
3:18We're about two and a half minutes into recording.
3:20What do you guys want to talk about? You want to talk about tight ends first?
3:25Want to talk about quarterbacks? Let's do tight ends because that's just, that's the name of the game.
3:31Tight end is an extremely important position in fantasy football.
3:34It's usually the linchpin of a lot of your rosters.
3:37Only a few of them score a lot of points.
3:40The rest of them are all about your return on investment.
3:43And ESPN is about as interesting and as terrible of a platform for said values as we're going to get to.
3:50So let's talk about number one. Tight end is the new black.
3:54We'll start with negativity, actually. Let's start with our bottle service values.
3:57These are going to be guys that are just going.
4:00I'm going to say painfully high. No one ever said, boy, I'm really glad that we did bottle service.
4:06And up first, God, you hate to do it to them.
4:10George Kittle, an ESPN ADP of 71, an expert consensus ranking of 112.
4:14So as you guys, if you watched last week's show, we're going to be comparing the ESPN ADPs to the expert consensus rankings of all the platforms.
4:22You know, you're going to have the experts here on Player Profiler, Matt, Bradley, myself, all the big brains, along with consensus
4:29rankings from Fantasy Pros, Underdog, Sleeper, Yahoo, and a lot, a lot more football guys.
4:33Are all batteries the same? That's like asking if all soccer players are the same.
4:38Take Messi, the most decorated player ever. Is there any other player who has achieved that?
4:43No, just him. Now take Duracell. Is there any other battery with power-boost ingredients inside?
4:47No, just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different.
4:51And Messi only trusts Duracell. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome.
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5:21Don't be a sheep. Don't be a sheep. George Kittle, man.
5:24This is a painful one. You're looking at a difference of 41 spots between his ECR and his ESPN ADP.
5:30He's going ahead of Laporta. He's going ahead of Basil Tootin.
5:33And he's going ahead of Mike Evans, just to give you guys a little bit of a reference point there.
5:40You're getting a nice discount on him this year compared to previous seasons.
5:44You know, he's always been a top three, top five guy when healthy.
5:48Obviously, his efficiency rankings last year were incredible, right?
5:50But that's not really the rub when it comes to Kittle.
5:54It's all about the Achilles injury and his advanced age going into 32 season.
5:58I think the target competition is about as fierce as it's ever been for him, at least since that prime Debo Ayuk seasons.
6:05But, you know, you don't talk about Ayuk anymore, do you?
6:09Unless you want to get some social media meltdown points.
6:12Mike Evans is going to be the best receiver on this team.
6:15Ricky Pearsall is another damn fine wide receiver on the up and off if he can stay healthy.
6:21Christian McCaffrey just had 129 targets. So I just have to ask, why am I not getting an injury discount on ESPN
6:28for this Achilles that he's coming back from? There's risk, but it's risk at a premium cost.
6:33Like, this is a great pick if you're picking him at 112 on any of the other platforms.
6:38But picking him at 71st, when you've got other potential linchpins going on and you're carrying such a big risk and tight
6:45end is so buttoned up at the top. Bowers, McBride aren't going anywhere.
6:49You've got Loveland on the rise. Warren could be a thing.
6:53Fannin, Pitts, all these guys who we will get to.
6:56Bet your ass we're going to get to him.
6:58I know that he can be great again. Like, Hall of Fame players, when they step back on the field, even if
7:05they've been banged up in the past, Kittle always bounces back.
7:09And it looks like he is on track to play week one.
7:12But ESPN drafters aren't supposed to know this. Somebody fed the fruit of knowledge to the drafters at ESPN.
7:18And that man must be caught. And his girlfriend, wife, situationship, whatever have you, must be sold to willing buyers at the fair market price.
7:26That's how I feel about that. All right. Who else we got?
7:29Because there is a boatload of them, like I said.
7:33And our next one is another guy that I hate that I'm not getting any discount on.
7:38That's going to be Dallas Goddard. Dallas Goddard, best comparable player, Tyler Eifert.
7:42Tyler Eifert, I miss you in that 2015 season, was it?
7:452014, what was the big Eifert year? Either way, it doesn't matter.
7:49We've got an expert consensus ranking of 122 for the tight end out of Philadelphia.
7:53ESPN ADP of 95. So you're looking at a 26 spot differential.
7:57You have to take Dallas Goddard two full rounds higher than you would have on another platform.
8:02He's going ahead of Parker Washington, Kenny Gainwell, J.K.
8:05Dobbins, guys that I have mixed feelings on, but are still going to play a role this year.
8:11And the pros are pretty cut and dry, right?
8:13A.J. Brown is gone. New O.C. coming in. Great chemistry with Jalen Hurts.
8:17Offensive line should be better. All that jazz. What are the cons?
8:21He's got old balls. It's never really been consistent year to year.
8:25This is a great middle, late round flyer, but now you're actually starting to take him.
8:30If you have to take him in the top 100, I feel way differently.
8:34Mannion first-hand witness to the yards after the catch threat that Tucker Craft was.
8:38You're not getting that from Dallas Goddard. He is a crafty vet.
8:42Anyone? But I just don't think he's capable for that.
8:45And I think you're going to be praying for touchdowns with Devonta Smith and Makai Lemon and even a little bit of Stowers coming in there.
8:53I don't think Stowers is going to have a huge role this year just because Goddard is an impactful player.
8:59Rookie tight ends. Not really a fully, a well-rounded player.
9:02But he definitely has a chance to grow. I guess I just have to ask, is this a player that you build your passing game around?
9:10Career low receiving grade last year. Lowest yards per game since his rookie season.
9:15And they finally have a capable backup, like I said.
9:18So I just don't know. This is one of those guys you just want to be going later.
9:23But if you're on ESPN and you're looking at, I mean, if he floats on the screen, what are people going to think?
9:30AJ Brown is gone. This is going to be a top two target earner, top two touchdown scorer on the Eagles.
9:37I mean, I'm not saying it's without a realm of possibility.
9:40I just like that more around pick 122 than I do pick 95, especially when there's other really good players on really good offenses that are still going.
9:49Now, speaking of a really good player on a really good offense, man, they're just playing the hits with how much they
9:56juice up the tight end ADPs on ESPN. Sam Laporta, expert consensus ranking of 88, ESPN ADP of 68.
10:01Got a minus 20 differential. So once again, you're having to pay up almost two full rounds for Sam Laporta, who, I
10:08mean, God, you're looking on player profiler right here.
10:11Best comparable, George Kittle. Okay, I would usually pay up for George Kittle, but not when he's got Amon Ross, Hank Brown,
10:18Jamison Williams, and Jameer Gibbs, and future first ballot Hall of Famer Isaiah Pacheco on the squad here.
10:23And the pros are, once again, you're going to notice the theme here with these tight ends.
10:29Like the pros and the cons are pretty cut and dry.
10:32I just like to reiterate them for you guys so you get the Chucky Bass spin.
10:37He's one of the most efficient and athletic tight ends in the league.
10:41His offense is incredible. And he's got contingent value if there were supposed to be any injuries for the top guys above
10:48him because he's just, he's a freak. What are the concerns though?
10:51He competes with these freaks for targets. He's got as many as three guys that could make the Pro Bowl any given season.
10:58The volume might be lower. And he's fighting with Jamison William for the maid of honor, or maybe even bridesmaid duties behind Slant God and Jameer Gibbs.
11:07So I just have to ask, what if Drew Petsing sees more Trey McBride and Sam Laporta than we're giving credit to?
11:13Before Petsing arrived in Arizona, rookie Trey McBride, who is currently, as we sit, a top two tight end in the NFL,
11:20he was closer to Eno Benjamin and Robbie Chosen Anderson in targets than AJ Green and Rondale Moore RIP.
11:26So how much is coaching going to have an impact on this?
11:30We saw last season before Dan Campbell took over play calling duties, Sam Laporta looked to be number two on this team
11:37and was gone his way to a top three, top five season.
11:40And of course, injuries got in the way. Play caller switches got in the way.
11:45I doubt that happens again. It would be a big sign of trouble in Detroit if Dan Campbell was going to once
11:52again have to step in and take control of the offense.
11:55I don't think they can do that two seasons in a row, and I trust Petsing.
12:00So I think there's some capability there. Let's get on to another guy who's just these tight ends, man.
12:06They're just, they can't catch a break. Kyle Pitts, expert consensus ranking of 77 and ESPN ADP of 61.
12:12So you're seeing that differential shrink down a little bit.
12:15Only 16 spots. So around and a half. He's going ahead of DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Luther Burden.
12:20And I make sure to tell you guys all the guys, you know, mix up the positions they're going around just to
12:27give you an idea of the value you're going to have to pass up if you want to take one of these
12:34tight ends here because it's a big decision. You know, you take one of these guys early, you're probably not taking another
12:41tight end or you're not taking one until super late.
12:44So you have to make some crunch time decisions.
12:46How many points do you think Luther Burden is capable of scoring this season?
12:51Is it 300 full PPR points? Is it 275?
12:53Can Kyle Pitts get within 50 of that and make this justification?
12:57I don't know. We shall see. And I mean, this might actually be a guy you have to talk about the pros
13:04and cons with because he's burned so many people in good ways and in bad.
13:08He's fully healthy entering the season. Unbelievable athletic profile.
13:11Just one of those rare guys that can do a little bit of everything in the passing game.
13:17New coaching staff with Kyle Stefanski, Tommy Reese. They have a strong history of utilizing tight ends and will likely not having him play in line as much.
13:25Very little competition outside of Drake London and B.
13:28John Robinson. And he took a big step forward, I thought, last year.
13:32The cons. Are there any? I don't know. I just have to ask.
13:36Is this quarterback room without Kirk Cousins like TBS without reruns of Seinfeld?
13:40Where it's just... Remember for years, TBS's slogan was very funny and you were just like, all this original programming sucks.
13:47All you have is Seinfeld. And then they finally got the offense, which is once again, not original programming.
13:52I don't know. I got a big, big bad feeling about Michael Penix and Tua coming in here.
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14:53You know, most of Kyle Pitts' production came with Drake London hurt or sidelined.
14:58I do like his upside more than some of these guys in this range because I think he's got, from a volume
15:04standpoint or a numerical standpoint, less hurdles to overcome.
15:07It's just how big is that quarterback hurdle? Do we get glimpses of that production between Tua and Darren Waller last year?
15:14I mean, that's grasping at straws if I've ever grasped at one.
15:18But man, you could really see this one go in a multitude of ways.
15:22And that's kind of been the story for Pitts' entire career.
15:25I wish that he finds peace for myself, for you, for all of us out there, for the good people in Atlanta.
15:32Actually, there aren't any good people in Atlanta. I take that back.
15:36All right. Let's get to another guy here that I got a lot to say about, which is crazy because of how old he is.
15:44And that's going to be old balls, Travis Kelsey.
15:46Who is expert consensus ranking of 96 and ESPN ADP of 81.
15:50So once again, not massive, but a full round and a half, 15 points.
15:54He's going ahead of Christian Watson, who I love, Jalen Warren, who I like, and Dak Prescott, who I'll let you guys
16:01in the comments and on Reddit have an opinion on that one.
16:05I like Dak, but you could just absolutely pummel him.
16:08I have that hat. There we go. Dynasty Wolf showing up.
16:11That's what I like to hear. The chat's got my hat.
16:15If you're listening to this on podcast form, I'm wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers hat.
16:192020 Super Bowl champs, 2003 Super Bowl champs, and two of the five greatest teams of all time.
16:25All right. Back to Travis Kelsey. There's some pros to be had here, right?
16:29If you're looking at, if you're at pick 81 and you're like, man, you can find a lot of red flags with a lot of these guys.
16:37I've named them for the previous guys we just talked about.
16:41I'm going to name them for all the guys we talked about today.
16:45The pros for Kelsey. He's still productive with Mahomes.
16:48He was a top five tight end with him last year.
16:51Discounted ADP compared to previous seasons, and he doesn't need peak production or return value based upon how he gets his points.
16:58And the cons are pretty obvious, right? I'm going to get to the biggest con here, but we'll start with the small ones.
17:05Age-related decline. It's clear. We saw it two years ago.
17:08We saw it last year. It's not easy to get those points like it used to be.
17:13It's per route efficiencies have dropped significantly over previous seasons.
17:16And what does this team want to be? Matt Nagy's gone.
17:20Thank God. Eric Biennemi's coming in. Is that a thank God?
17:23I mean, obviously, Kelsey had great seasons under Eric Biennemi, but it was chicken or egg thing.
17:28What was going on there? Mahomes is coming back from injury.
17:32Kenneth Walker got the bag so he can be a bell cow here.
17:36You got Rasheed Rice. Is Xavier Worthy going to stop being an asshole?
17:40I don't know. Taequann Thornton brought back. I just have to ask myself, why did he get married before the season?
17:46Bro, I know you've had sex. You had your own reality show on E!
17:50Entertainment Television. You have to know the history of preseason marriages.
17:54Here's just the last two years. And immediately, all of these guys had down years or suffered major injuries before the season.
18:00Travis Hunter famously cupped last year. Jalen Hurts had his worst season as a pro.
18:05Aaron Rodgers, Steelers nightmare. Christian McCaffrey got married before the 2024 season.
18:09We all know how that worked out. Brock Purdy, same thing.
18:12Evan Ingram during his last Jaguar season. Christian Kirk last Jaguar season.
18:16Christian Watson tore his ACL right after getting married.
18:19Austin Eckler tore his ACL right after getting married.
18:21I believe it was ACL. Whatever that Washington commander's injury was for Eckler.
18:25TJ Hawkinson turned into a bowl of dust. And keep an eye out.
18:29This isn't just for Kelsey. Guys who got married this offseason.
18:33Devonta Smith, Sam Darnold, Michael Penix, Jake Ferguson, Darius Slayton, and A.J.
18:36Frickin' Brown. Keep an eye out, fellas. This could be something to scare.
18:40Could be an opportunity. I don't know. Maybe if you've got some dynasty trades out there, you can finagle.
18:46If you're trying to build a roster that can win this year.
18:50Get these married folks off. I don't know why it is that married guys perform worse during the season.
18:56Maybe the honeymoon phase ends. Guys who become fathers during the season usually have primo years.
19:01Guys who get engaged usually have primo years. There's a little hunt.
19:04They get something to get excited to. But guys who actually got married and they have that, you know, the graduate style
19:11sitting on the back of the bus. Melancholy. It affects their play and it affects their play more than one.
19:17All right. That's the kind of tangent that I was excited to get on for today and that I didn't give you guys last week.
19:25Let's get to our next tight end here. Another guy I'm surprised to see is up as he is.
19:31And that's going to be Harold Fannin Jr. He's got an expert consensus ranking of 72.
19:36His ESPN ADP is 59. So this is the first guy we're talking about that's going within the first five rounds here.
19:43It's a 13-spot differential. And he's going ahead of DJ Moore, Jalen Waddell, and Jadarian Price.
19:48I mean, the Jalen Waddell ADP says more about wide receivers than it does about Harold Fannin, I think.
19:53But, you know, and what are the pros? Obviously, he's an outstanding receiver with outstanding yak ability, heavy involvement, clear path to
20:00every down roll, and the athletic profile translated like fodder.
20:03This is a guy who hit the ground running, and he did it with bad quarterback play last year.
20:09So am I as concerned about this year? No.
20:12But it is a different bad quarterback. Deshaun Watson has never been a highly productive quarterback for the tight end position.
20:18Todd Munkin has been inconsistent in his tight end usage down to down, team to team.
20:23Kind of depends on the personnel and the wide receivers he has and how he can weaponize them.
20:29I'm not saying it's negative. I'm just saying it's not something you can count on.
20:33Scheme could be potentially run heavy, although that's going to be an issue because they project to have the worst offensive line in the league.
20:41And this price is very aggressive for a guy that we're not 100% which way the ball is going to bounce at the tight end position.
20:49Not terribly scared of the pass catching talent around him, at least in 2026.
20:53I just have to ask, how likely is it that the QB situation over the course of the 17 game season we're
21:00about to have takes him from rookie year Kyle Pitts, who had 1,000 yards, to sophomore year Kyle Pitts, which was one
21:07of the worst seasons we've seen from a follow-up breakout of all time and very little to do with Kyle Pitts himself.
21:14So I'm concerned for our boy here. I'm concerned for the price.
21:17I really like his ceiling. His floor makes me nervous going ahead of guys like Jalen Waddell, ahead of guys like DJ Moore.
21:24DJ Moore, I mean, I just mean that theoretically because he can kind of be an asshole sometimes on the field that is.
21:32So we've got one more here, and then we're going to get to our Costco hot dog section of ADPs, the tight end position.
21:39Let's get to Tyler Warren, another guy you were paying.
21:42You're paying Buku bottle service, like international bottle service prices.
21:45I say that as somebody who's never been to an international club, so I don't know what the bottle service prices are there.
21:52But man, an expert consensus ranking of 53, an ESPN ADP of 43.
21:56So this is usually a guy on other platforms that you've usually had four to five good, really strong picks, and you're like, you know what?
22:04Let me get some Tyler Warren and just feel like I got a top five good guy, and then I'll fill out the rest of the roster.
22:12Well, here he's going so ridiculously high on ESPN.
22:15He's going ahead of T. Higgins. He's going ahead of Emeka Ibuka, and he's tied basically with Devontae Adams.
22:21This is just brutal, brutal stuff here. The pros, this is another guy.
22:25Pros and cons are shut and dry, right? Elite rookie production despite that inconsistent quarterback play.
22:30Strong route participation. Michael Pittman is gone. High floor with top three upside, and he's a powerful yak guy as well.
22:36The concerns here are that if Daniel Jones isn't the quarterback or even close to the quarterback we saw through the first
22:4310, 12 games of last season, I don't think I want a single Colts player, let alone a guy going 43rd overall.
22:50He just doesn't possess quite the scoring potential of the guys going ahead of him, I don't think.
22:55I don't think he's able to do more with less like they are.
22:59And the Colts offense is probably going to project from last season just with all these rotations going on.
23:05I don't know about you guys. I've got that negative, that gnawing feeling in my gut when your girl texts you like
23:12we need to talk later about the Colts. How much longer are they just going to keep farting out these seasons where
23:19you can see the potential and they just don't put it together end to end?
23:23You know, Shane Sykin, does he make it through the season?
23:27You know, my girl Israel, Israel, or say God, why can I never get it right?
23:32She's the one I want to be out there calling plays.
23:35You guys have been seeing what she's been up to.
23:38She's making everybody feel a little something, something on the backside and front side, any side.
23:43And look, he obviously should be the focal point of this passing attack.
23:47Oh, he should be it over Alec Pierce. He should be it over Josh Downs who could have a breakout coming.
23:54Another guy who's going, if you don't, if you think this is too high for Warren, you got Josh Downs going outside the top 100 on ESPN.
24:02I mean, this is the season is trending towards Tyler Warren, either being the condom on this Colts horse cock that, you
24:09know, allows them to, you know, have theoretical sex safely throughout the season, or he's going to be the chest.
24:15He's going to be, they're going to be putting a chastity belt on him.
24:19It's not a perfect analogy, but I think you guys know what I'm getting at here.
24:24I just have to ask myself, the problem is that you still need to generate extremely high points per game at this
24:31ADP to pay off relative to position. I've seen tight ends dominate target share on their offense and still put up tight
24:38end six, tight end eight, tight end 10 numbers.
24:40You've seen it from down years from better players like Kittle and Kelsey.
24:44You've seen it from those pits Njoku lost seasons.
24:47QB play just killed them. So you look at this tight end four season that he just had as a rookie, but
24:54with an injured quarterback and inconsistent quarterback play, you've got who look at these other guys who are going to be in the mix this year.
25:02Breakout Loveland, Fannin, Kraft, Bowers, Kincaid, I think even, and more guys that I all think have varying degrees of top five potential.
25:09I think that might squeeze Warren out and make this pick very hard to swallow.
25:14All right, let's take a quick break here. When we come back, we'll get to tight ends that make me want to
25:20drive to an outlet mall and drown myself in a fountain, but in a good, like fun, cool way.
25:26Like in a, who's the guy who made The Breakfast Club and Home Alone?
25:31John Carpenter, whoever made all those 80 movies, that's who we're going to be getting at right here in just a sec.
25:37You know, the original player profile was just my podcasting tool that I made available to the public so that you could
25:44follow along and look up the stats while I'm looking them up and talking about them on the show.
25:50And then you're asking, well, I want to dominate my drafts.
25:53I want to know what you know about Josh Downs and Trey Harris and Jalen Coker.
25:58So that's why we have the world famous draft kit.
26:01The key team insights, the player breakdowns, and the key stats that you need to know, like vacated targets, vacated touches, all
26:08there available to you with cheat sheets for every format and interactive drafting.
26:12As you draft, the players fly off the board.
26:15And this year, for the first time, I am publishing my personal draft cheat sheet during draft season, as well as Bradley's.
26:22And when you sign up for the all-in package, you get $25 off with code Podfather.
26:27Code Podfather, $25 off. The world famous draft kit is now live.
26:30It is ready. It is complete. So go grab it and dominate your drafts.
26:35John Hughes. I couldn't think of John Hughes. And I said John Carpenter.
26:39So I don't know if I'm ever going to personally live that one down, but it's okay.
26:44Sometimes we're here to fall. That's why it's called risers and fallers.
26:47So I appreciate that. Yeah, I appreciate that as well.
26:51If there's ever a moment you want to turn in on, it's right when I start dabbling the line a little bit.
26:57Trust me, that's the way we roll around here.
27:00And I know you know that as well as anybody.
27:03All right, let's get to tight end values that absolutely rock.
27:07Rondé Gadsden, expert consensus ranking of 152 and ESPN ADP of 193.
27:1043 point differential. Are you kidding me? This is a guy I have...
27:14You know what? I'm going to skip right to the...
27:17I just have to ask myself, what if this is the best pass catcher on the Chargers?
27:23Better than Ladd, better than QJ, better than the six other guys who are going to be involved this season for reasons that really pissed me off.
27:31This is a guy who I was just like, man, they've been missing this since Antonio freaking Gates.
27:36Bring it back. He's going down behind Brian Robinson, Cam Ward, and Trey Tucker.
27:41Who would you rather have? Who has more upside?
27:43Former wide receiver with natural receiving abilities, a smooth route runner.
27:47The only problem is that he can't block that well.
27:50And the Chargers offensive line was ass in a bag last year.
27:54They fixed that. He should be able to get out there more.
27:57Let's get him out all the time. How about a 100% route participation?
28:01100% snap share. I'd love that. Obviously, that's a lot to ask.
28:05But look, he might be a part-time player. But at this ADP, a part-time player can put up very nice down-to-down metrics.
28:12Look at Dalton Kincaid, who speaking of right now, let's get to our next guy because this is going to be a
28:19little bit of a power hour, these guys, because I really just can't believe Dalton Kincaid is another guy whose ESPN ADP
28:25compared to his expert consensus ranking, my goodness, expert consensus ranking of 111, ESPN ADP of 149.
28:31So you're getting a 38-point differential. He's going behind TJ Hawkinson, Alvin Kamara, and Kenyon Sadiq, who I just, I think all
28:37those guys are going to be varying degrees of non-factors this year, although I do like Sadiq's potential if that offense can
28:44once again get their head out of their A.
28:47He's an unbelievably efficient target earner when he's running routes.
28:50Attached to Josh Allen in a high-powered offense, I don't believe terribly much in DJ Moore.
28:55He commands targets at one of the highest rates among the position, and he's in his prime.
29:00Now, obviously, the snap share being limited is a concern, and it felt like last year, I don't know how he wasn't
29:07able to produce a little bit more with Shakir, Palmer, and Coleman farting out weekly production, underproduction, I should say.
29:13And he is going to have to continue that elite efficiency because the volume is unlikely to spike.
29:19But man, if he can do that, if he can manage the injury, this is a team that they need some juice,
29:25they got the same play caller rolling over in Joe Brady.
29:29I just have to ask, is a part-time player really capable of a top five season?
29:34The underlying receiving metrics are there. He's pretty much the third best yards per route run threat across all positions.
29:40But it does feel a little bit like Mark Andrews where because of the splits with other tight ends, you'll need those
29:47touchdowns to drown out the noise at the other position.
29:50But man, at 149, that's free money. I absolutely love that.
29:53Here's another guy that I do actually have split feelings on.
29:56But once again, the ADP is too premium to pass up.
30:00And that's going to be Chig Okonkwo, who has an expert consensus ranking of 159, which is right there just a little
30:07bit about around later than Dalton Kincaid. An ESPN ADP of 196.
30:10Free Chig. You're getting free Chigs. 37 spot differential.
30:13My God, he's going around Bryce Young, Cooper Cup, and Jawan Jennings.
30:17I mean, I know this is a guy that hasn't done much, but that is disrespect on levels that is usually reserved
30:23for like a PFF ranking or something like that.
30:26And his pros, obviously, he's joining a much better offense.
30:29He's got an awesome athletic profile. And the path exists to be the number two target earner behind Terry McLaurin.
30:35Doesn't look to me like they're going to sign IU.
30:38Stefan Diggs could be a problem, but I've got my Chigs with Diggs tweet waiting in the draft if that happens.
30:45He does fit that second contract athletic tight end breakout archetype that we see with a lot of these guys would love that for him.
30:53His concerns are going to be that he's not a great blocker.
30:56Might lose snaps to John Bates. Target hierarchy remains uncertain.
30:59And, you know, my problem here is I just have to ask, what has he done to be considered a hot new
31:06toy for Jaden Daniels and his mom to play with?
31:09The door was wide open in Tennessee for years.
31:12And the only person to walk through it was a drunk bridesmaid looking for the bachelorette because the party bus was leaving.
31:19Like, there's just not a lot going on there.
31:22I know there was inconsistent quarterback play, bad offensive design, things like that.
31:26But I just get a little nervous, a little nervous here.
31:29I don't get nervous about this next guy, though.
31:32So, and he's a guy who got who he was there for me in 2024.
31:36He was there for me for a little bit of 2025.
31:40Will he be there for me in 2026? Tucker frickin craft an expert consensus ranking of 69.
31:45Hell yeah. High five and ESPN ADP of 103.
31:48So you're looking at a 34 spot differential. Any concerns you have about Tucker craft?
31:52Guess what? On ESPN, you're getting a three round discount.
31:55He's going behind Makai Lemon, Jake Ferguson. Come on.
31:58And Wondell Robinson. He's the only top 70 player at the position going outside of the top 100.
32:04Pros, well, they're there for themselves. He's an elite yak guy, outstanding blocker, doesn't leave the field, limited target competition this year compared to previous ones.
32:12And he's proven he's a top tier fantasy producer.
32:14I'm not worried. I mean, I know yak can be an unreliable year to year indicator, but it's pretty much how this offense operates, right?
32:22They want to run down your throat and then hit you with intermediate and deep shots down the field.
32:28So, you know, whatever yak might be a little bit less because of that injury.
32:33I still think that the ADOT is going to be there.
32:36And here's the thing. Obviously, the big concern is the recovery from that injury.
32:40And he may not have that full explosiveness, efficiency numbers regressing, whatever.
32:44I just have to ask, are you a freak or not?
32:47Because if you're a freak and you're compared to guys like George Kittle, and that's what everybody said last year.
32:54Everybody who was right about Kraft said, this is young George Kittle.
32:57If you are that guy, when you step back on the field, you're basically who you were when you left it last.
33:04Maybe 95% of it, but it won't take you long to ramp back up.
33:08Because if you are, I am not scared of ACL recovery affecting your play.
33:13Just not something I'm worried about. Now, let's get to a quick power hour here.
33:17And then it's quarterback time. Jawan Jennings, he's got an ECR of 138.
33:21And his ESPN ADP is 170. So you got a 32 spot differential there.
33:26You got Dalton Schultz, an expert consensus ranking of 169 and ESPN ADP of 196.
33:30So he's free as well. He's the only guy on this Texans offense to have 90 target or 80 targets each of the last three seasons.
33:38AJ Barner, who many project to have a breakout.
33:41He's got an ECR of 195, which is pretty damn low.
33:44But his ESPN ADP is 210. So he's also going outside the top 200 if you're looking at a late flyer.
33:51And then Isaiah Likely, a guy I just didn't want to talk about because I don't have anything interesting to say.
33:57He's got an expert consensus ranking of 116. He's got an ESPN ADP of 125.
34:02So that's a nine spot differential. You know, that's a guy who I think a lot of drafters, a lot of like
34:09percentage drafters are going to be looking at like, okay, who's a late round tight end that I can potentially punt on
34:15all these guys and have a high ROI on?
34:18He's certainly one of them. And the big dogs we don't even need to talk about because they're all pretty consistent site to site.
34:26Bowers, McBride, Loveland, they're all within one to three ADP spots on ESPN as they are on the expert consensus ranking.
34:32So what do we do now? Let's get to some quarterbacks, baby.
34:36The bells of the ball. And this is where it gets really weird.
34:40It's clear ESPN doesn't value quarterbacks the same way that the experts do.
34:44And remember that experts are just guys that are late on their rent.
34:48So let's start with the oh no no's, the bottle service QB.
34:51And here's a guy that I know loves him some bottle service.
34:55Jackson Dart. Jackson Dart has an expert consensus ranking of 89 on ESPN.
34:59He's going 64th overall. That's a 25 spot differential.
35:02So you have to pay two full rounds up for Jackson Dart if you want him.
35:07He's going behind or ahead of, sorry, DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Luther Burden, and Basil Tootin.
35:12What are the pros for this guy if you think this is going to pay off?
35:17Well, he runs like he's on amphetamines. He talks like he's on Maldi.
35:21And he looks like he smokes a lot of weed.
35:24Harbaugh said he wants to use him like sophomore year Lamar Jackson.
35:27And I get that. When these guys are young and they are athletic, abuse them.
35:32And then let them grow into pure passing progressions.
35:35There's not a lot of expectations on this season, in my opinion.
35:38Neighbors is banged up. The rest of the offense is young or they're jagoffs.
35:43Let your quarterback get a full off season as the dude without Russell Wilson texting him at 3 a.m.
35:49Like, hey, do you want to go throw rocks into the Hudson River?
35:53He's the man in New York right now. And they've got a lot of momentum.
35:57Nick's just won the title. They're hosting the World Cup final.
36:01New York is kind of back in the cultural zeitgeist.
36:04So I hope there's no expectations on this team to go far.
36:07Just show that you can develop past last year.
36:10The cons. For fantasy, if he doesn't have that early Justin Fields instinct to just tuck it and run, then I don't
36:17see any way this ecosystem supports him being close to a good pick at 64th overall.
36:22People are worried about health risks and stuff. I'm not worried about that.
36:26I just don't want it to be coached out of him.
36:29The line should be better. They've got a freakazoid at running back who's catching the ball premium.
36:34Neighbors, if he comes back, he could be a potential top five guy if he's back back.
36:40But man, Matt Nagy, Greg Roman, Brian Callahan, just a devil's threesome together.
36:44These guys have overseen some of the most limp D passing offenses since the Challenger exploded.
36:49And I just have to ask myself, how many more points is Jackson Dart going to score than Malik Willis, who we
36:55will get to at the very end of this episode here, man?
36:59It just makes me nervous. Makes me nervous about this pick.
37:02I like Dart, but I like him much later on other platforms.
37:06This one stinks, and it stinks like crap. Now let's get to our next guy here.
37:11The reigning MVP, Matthew Stafford. Expert consensus ranking of 103.
37:14ESPN has him at 87th overall. Differential of 16.
37:17So nothing crazy, crazy, but still older quarterback. Stationary.
37:20Going down behind Dak. Going behind, or sorry, ahead of.
37:23He's going ahead of Dak. He's going ahead of Seahawks defense.
37:26Which is our first defensive mention of the show today.
37:29And then he's going ahead of Rico Dowdle. And I mean, those are varying players at their position for sure.
37:35But just to give you that perspective. The pros, I'm not even going to talk about.
37:40We all know how good he is. He just won the MVP.
37:44We know how good his offensive. We know how good of offense's line is.
37:48We know how good his coach is. Cons with a pick within the top 90 is that he just gives you nothing in the rushing game.
37:56Durability is a concern. And his ceiling will depend on the passing volume.
38:00So I just have to ask you guys. Passing volume.
38:03I just mentioned it. Do you trade for Miles Garrett and Trent McDuffie?
38:07Because you want your quarterback to throw 597 passes again.
38:10Which, by the way, that was his second most attempts in 12 years.
38:14So if that passing volume comes down. They lean into the run game with Kyron and Coram a little bit more.
38:21I mean, obviously, you don't want to pass too little.
38:24Because you've got freaks at the position. But man, I just.
38:27There's not a lot of 4,000 yard passing seasons in Matthew Stafford's repertoire.
38:31Since those late Detroit to now. I mean, it's been a little inconsistent for injury.
38:36For on purpose. Based on how they've designed the offense.
38:39So just something to keep an eye on. If you're like, can you do this again?
38:44That's just what I would ask myself. And I would ask myself at 87th overall.
38:49How likely is that to happen? That it becomes a good fantasy pick.
38:53I'm not sure. Now, surprisingly, that's actually it. For values that are insane at the quarterback position.
38:58That are insanely piss poor. If you can even call those piss poor.
39:02Let's get to some ones that just rock. Let's get to our Costco.
39:06Costco hot dog section here. Just values that are insane to me.
39:09Caleb Williams. I cannot believe Caleb Williams is a terrific value on ESPN.
39:13Because this is a guy I'm not drafting much of this year.
39:17He's got an expert consensus ranking of 65. Which I think is too high.
39:21ESPN ADP of 90. So you're looking at 25 spot differential.
39:25Two full points. He's going down around the same tier as Matthew Stafford.
39:29He's going behind Stafford. He's going behind Brian Thomas Jr.
39:32He's going behind Brock Purdy. He's going behind Chris Godwin.
39:35And once again, I don't really want to dish and dash the pros of Caleb Williams too much.
39:41Because he's been dissected to death this year. But Ben Johnson, he's entering his second season with Williams.
39:46Which I think is going to give them a lot of continuity.
39:50He's got an unbelievable arm. He's a dangerous improviser.
39:53I just have to ask myself. What the hell is wrong with this platform?
39:57This is like the most hyped quarterback of the offseason.
40:00Madden cover. Dating one of the most famous internet thoughts.
40:03Sophomore breakout season behind the new sheriff in town.
40:06If one publication should be all the way in, way over their skis on a quarterback, shouldn't it be ESPN?
40:12Like how can you have Jackson Dart that much higher?
40:15He's going two full rounds lower than expert consensus.
40:18That scares me. It's almost like, you know how like a blind score, a broken clock is right twice a day.
40:24A broken score, what is it? A squirrel always finds its nuts.
40:28Something like that. What was it from the Call of Duty zombies?
40:32This could be one of those where it's like, was ESPN randomly right about this Caleb Williams ranking?
40:37I'm not sure. Because he still has some improvement to go on his intermediate and deep balls.
40:42He's got some gaps in his game that I think get covered up by the coaching staff.
40:48Can he do it another year? I don't know.
40:50But man, going at 90th overall, I think why the hell not?
40:54Even if he's just who he was last year, it's an unbelievable value.
40:58Another guy from last year. Can he do it again?
41:01Trevor Lawrence, expert consensus ranking of 76 and ESPN ranking of 109.
41:05That's a 33 spot differential. Man, he's going behind RJ Harvey, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyle Manungay.
41:10And then like the pros, guy won you your league last year if you had him in the fantasy playoffs.
41:16He was one of the best late season, big round quarterback bets.
41:20He's so aggressive downfield. I love it. He's becoming more confident, more stable.
41:24And he became a pretty capable rusher last year, which we'll get to when I just have to ask that.
41:30The cons. I don't know. He's just been a little inconsistent.
41:33He's had a good year. He's had a bad year.
41:36He's had a good year. He's had a bad year.
41:39He doesn't provide you incredible rushing upside from a yardage standpoint.
41:43It's very touchdown dependent. His weekly ceiling might be a little bit lower than some of those other dual threats.
41:49And he really does need that passing touchdown to separate himself.
41:52But I just have to ask myself, you know, you see Trevor Lawrence at 109.
41:57You're like, hell the hell yeah. What are the odds that he has nine rushing touchdowns again?
42:02That trailed only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. He had 14 in the previous four seasons in his prime, prime athleticism.
42:09He had nine attempts inside the five yard line last year.
42:12He converted five of those into touchdown. And he really is perfect.
42:16Don't get me wrong for that lunge over the pile that Drew Brees perfected.
42:20He had four from 10 out. So he's not afraid to tuck it and run when the play breaks down, try and get to the goal line.
42:28But guess who had more attempts than he did from inside the five and the 10 last year?
42:34Chris. Miss bells are ringing Rodriguez. Sorry, I'm trying to bring back Chris Berman nicknames.
42:38Chris Rodriguez. That's more attempts than Travis CTM had on this team last year.
42:43And that Washington team did not get to the red zone near as much as the Jaguars.
42:48Now, maybe it's a bug of Liam Cohen's offense and not a, or maybe it's not a bug, but a feature that
42:55quarterbacks rush near the goal line because Baker Mayfield in 2024 also tied career highs in rushing touchdowns.
43:00But just something I would be concerned at. What if that gets cut in half?
43:05What if he gets injured? I mean, obviously injury is not something you can count on, but you know, if that rushing
43:12production isn't quite what it was, I feel not as great about his ceiling compared to previous seasons.
43:17So we've got three more here. And there are three more that I think you guys might be able to build your team or team around.
43:25Kyler Murray, he's got an expert consensus ranking of 115 and ECR of 156.
43:29So this is a guy that's just not respected on a lot of platforms.
43:34And I think for deserved reason, he's going a full round later.
43:37He's going around Jalen Coker, Tyler Shuck and Hunter Henry.
43:41His pros are pretty much face value. Again, he's still one of the premier rushing quarterbacks.
43:45He's still in his prime. He can not just a great rushing quarterback, but he can create explosive rushing plays.
43:52He's in an unbelievable offensive ecosystem. He's got a pretty decent history of quarterback one finishes, and he's finally going later than he had in those previous seasons.
44:00Durability will remain a concern with him. The offensive consistency has fluctuated with him and with the Vikings, depending on how strong
44:07the offensive line is, what the pass catchers are in the lineup.
44:11Passing production will definitely have to be there alone to separate himself from other quarterbacks.
44:15I just have to ask myself, we have two seasons out of seven where Kyler Murray was the kind of draft pick
44:22that made you go, oh boy, I'm glad I made that decision.
44:26And then you throw away all your antidepressants. And guess what?
44:29Both of those seasons came before you guys took the COVID vaccine.
44:33And if you didn't kick the COVID vaccine, that's 2019 and 2020.
44:37That's a long time ago. If you had a baby in 2019, they would already be in therapy.
44:42So those are the things that make me nervous.
44:45Obviously, KOC generates passing production from anybody not named JJ McCarthy.
44:48Obviously, the passing ecosystem is great with Jefferson and with Addison and with Jawan Jennings stepping in there.
44:54You got Aaron Jones catching passes out of the backfield.
44:57This is just a guy that's let us down a lot.
45:00But at 156 overall, I'm okay being let down.
45:03That is not going to bother me too much.
45:06All right. We've got two more here. And then we can get you guys back to work.
45:11Your boss will never have any idea that you're watching the show.
45:15So Justin Herbert. Hoo-wee. I'm going to be one of those guys who says something nice about Justin Herbert.
45:21Expert consensus ranking of 67 in ESPN ADP. Look at that.
45:24117. A 50 spot differential. He's going around Steelers defense.
45:27Are you kidding me? Did you guys even know the Steelers had a defense?
45:31Bo Nix and Travis Hunter. So you guys could have Travis Hunter or you could have Justin Herbert.
45:37The pros. Come on. I'm not going to get into the pros.
45:41Every hipster NFL fantasy podcast is giving you guys all the pros.
45:44I'm just going to skip right to my I just have to ask because I think it's an interesting one.
45:50If you're Mike McDaniel, isn't the best way to weaponize this offense to funnel it through the run game and then let
45:57Justin Herbert obliterate distracted secondaries, weaponizing play action, hitting deep shots down the field when the defense is concerned that Amari and
46:04Hampton is going to blitz down their throat. The year that Tua, who sucks, led the league in passing, he was still closer to 10th in overall attempts.
46:13It wasn't a volume based thing. They ran the ball 456 times that season to the tune of 27 touchdowns.
46:19I mean, you can do that. Yeah. When you have Devon HN and Raheem Mostert giving you one last gasp, but I'd
46:25put Hampton Kamani Vidal and splices of Keaton Mitchell, at least in the ballpark of that.
46:30If not, you know, if Hampton turns out to be the guy we saw last year, boom, might be right there with them.
46:37So you got the offensive line who's coming back in big time.
46:41You've got upgrades at the center position. You just need this team to hold the line from a health standpoint.
46:47And I do think they could be the premier offense of the NFL.
46:51I guess I just wonder who benefits the most from that.
46:55We know Herbert can be a top two quarterback, but that was done out of necessity.
47:00If the defense continues where Jesse Mentor left off, obviously he's in Baltimore now, but you know, can they get one more?
47:06Can they squeeze one more good season out of these players?
47:10What are the final scores look like? What are the final passing volume numbers look like?
47:15That makes me a little bit nervous, but shit, man.
47:18And at 117 for a guy who could win MVP, give me that.
47:22Give me that. Now, the last guy at the 43-minute mark coming in at the buzzer, a guy who I'm going to
47:29have way more shares of this year than I thought was humanly possible.
47:32That's going to be Malik Willis. This is a guy, if you guys have been following the show this offseason, you've seen me talk myself into.
47:40Because earlier in the year, I was like, this guy threw less passes than Mitch Trubisky last year.
47:46And I'm expected to draft him in fantasy for a team that has Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington and
47:53a couple of interesting rookies coming in at wide receiver.
47:56But boy, an expert consensus ranking for Malik Willis of 127, ESPN ADP of 188, a 61 spot differential.
48:02He's going behind Jerry Judy, Brenton Strange in Cowboys defense.
48:05Cowboys defense. The second worst defense of all time last year behind the Bengals.
48:09And the pros, the reason anybody ever talks about him, it's the rushing upside, it's the passing efficiency.
48:15He's a dynamic player. He's going to be a nice, he's going to be a popular sleeper on a lot of platforms.
48:21And he does fit that historical Konami code quarterback archetype.
48:24It's dangerous when the play breaks down. And I think the play is going to break down a lot in Miami this year.
48:32The concerns are really that his role as the driver of this offense remains unclear.
48:36The passing consistency in the volume, what is that going to look like?
48:40And the floor depends heavily on the supporting cast, I think.
48:44I just have to ask, is Bobby Sloick really that bad?
48:47I mean, really? In two seasons with the Texans, Bobby Sloick got 6,700 yards and 39 touchdowns out of C.J.
48:53Stroud, who a lot of people are saying might not even be a starting NFL quarterback.
48:58Not me. I like C.J. Stroud, but that's the scuttlebutt.
49:01That's the water cooler talk, the word on the street.
49:04That's what the masseuses are saying. And he did that with a worse offensive line than what the Dolphins are about to roll out.
49:12Sure, he had Nico Collins, but the Dolphins have Devon Achan and Greg Dalsish, which let's call that a draw.
49:18In 2023 and 2024, Bobby Sloick's offenses finished 12th and 22nd, respectively, in yards, 13th and 19th, respectively, in points, and 12th and 11th, respectively, in passing attempts.
49:26So what if the efficiency that Willis showed us in Green Bay transfers over?
49:31You might become a thousandaire if you're playing in a lot of leagues this year.
49:35I just think that I don't see them finishing 32nd in pass attempts.
49:39I don't see them finishing 30th. I don't see them finishing 27th.
49:43I think this could be a low 20s passing attack, and a lot of that might be volume-driven because they don't have a very good defense, guys.
49:51They might have to put up points. And a lot of people said Tua was a checkdown merchant.
49:57Well, guess what? He wasn't until he had Devon Achan.
50:00Look at those seasons, even with Mike McDaniels prior to Achan coming in.
50:04They were not checking the ball down to the running backs.
50:07So does that continue? Bobby Sloick, he was promoted from within.
50:11This is a guy who saw how Mike McDaniel operated.
50:14He saw how Kyle Shanahan operated. That's how he got the job with the Texans.
50:18So look, is this a guy I would die to search on Indeed to hire as my offensive coordinator position?
50:24No, it's not. But I think he's being grouped in with the Nathaniel Hacketts and the Matt Canada's win.
50:30I just don't think he's in that group. So once again, guys, appreciate your support.
50:35That'll be it for our quarterbacks and tight end show.
50:38Go ahead. If you haven't already to go check out our running backs and wide receiver show that I did last week is up on this channel.
50:46Would love a sub, would love a like, would love a comment.
50:50And I would love for you to go ahead and win the hell out of all those leagues this year.
50:56Next week, we'll be doing a nice little show on coordinators, on coaches.
51:00Who's going to ruin our favorite players' positional value?
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