The Dominator - Players Who Are Set Up to Smash with Jared Smola

Alvin Kamara looks washed with near-bottom-of-the-league advanced metrics in both rushing and receiving, finishing 36th among 40 running backs in yards per route run last year.

Kamara was not even effective in the passing game last year, which is his calling card, making him an unattractive fantasy option despite taking a pay cut to stay with the Saints.

Aiyuk is part of an interesting 49ers receiving core with Kittle and Evans, though all three are a bit injury prone. If any one is out, the other two benefit.

Breece Hall's price has gotten aggressive, going in the early third round, and Smola is leaning towards wide receivers in that draft range instead.

Brock Bowers could get up to 30% of the Raiders' targets and is still a solid pick despite the weak offense, with his target share ceiling as high as you want to think.

Brock Bowers is loved by the analyst but carries a huge opportunity cost if taken in mid-to-late round one, making him less attractive than Colson Loveland at his current ADP.

Ridley is undervalued in the WR60s ADP. Despite a poor start last year with the Titans, he registered the second-best yards per route of his career at 1.89. Under Brian Daboll's offense that consistently gets three WRs on the field, Ridley could see enough volume to provide starter weeks as a WR6.

Tate is one of the more expensive rookie WRs with a 20-26 projection in redraft, similar to Jordan Tyson but going earlier.

Chase Brown is fairly priced in the middle of round two for the Bengals offense.

Watson had compensatory injuries similar to Marshawn Lloyd that athletic trainers have figured out, giving hope that he will work out and perform better.

Loveland can still generally be obtained in round four in non-tight end premium formats, and the analyst is less scared to pass up high-priced tight ends like Bowers and McBride for him.

Colson Loveland checks every box as a prospect with strong production at Michigan, was top six among 38 qualifying tight ends in both yards per route and targets per route, and the analyst believes he could be talked about alongside Brock Bowers and Trey McBride by next year.

Dak Prescott is going a little bit later amongst quarterbacks than expected given the Cowboys' elite offense, but lacks rushing upside which limits his ceiling to unlikely top-five QB finish.

Adams is an established elite touchdown producer now joining a team under Kyle Shanahan with Brock Purdy, who has one of the highest passing touchdown rates among active quarterbacks.

Devon Achane is not a must-have player and is fairly priced in the early to mid-second round, with limited upside due to the weak Miami offense and loss of Mike McDaniel.

Denzel Boston has impressed at mini camp and is worth speculating on late in drafts given his cheap price.

Drake May was quarterback three in fantasy points per game last year in his first season in Josh McDaniels' offense with a mediocre supporting cast, and now has another year of experience, A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs, and improved offensive line pieces.

Drake May is the analyst's favorite high-end quarterback target, generally available in round five or six, and gives sneaky rushing ability.

Dylan Sampson's passing game usage last year is cited as evidence that the Browns will employ a two-back system under Todd Monken.

Garrett Wilson is Jared Smola's favorite target among primary Jets pieces, expected to easily control targets for the Jets offense despite increased target competition from rookies.

Kittle is part of an interesting 49ers receiving core with Pierce and Evans, though all three are a bit injury prone. If any one is out, the other two benefit.

Harold Fannin is a good value target for the Browns, with his price dropping to the 8th-9th round in best ball drafts despite scoring the fourth most PPR points per game by a rookie tight end since 2000.

Jamar Chase is priced appropriately for the Bengals offense.

Jamar Chase is among the elite wide receivers whose production remains flat or up from previous seasons and is not coming off the field despite the shift toward more tight ends on passing downs.

Jalen Hurts finished quarterback seven in fantasy points per game last year and is being drafted at his floor, making him a good value bet on the offense being better with Sean Manning as offensive coordinator.

Hurts is expected to give a ton of rushing production on the ground, and the analyst thinks he didn't score many rushing touchdowns last year, which should regress back toward normal.

Javante Williams should continue to control carries for the Cowboys offense, but Jared Smola has concerns about his role in the passing game in 2026 due to inefficiency last year.

The analyst is worried about Jonathan Taylor because the Colts are projected to be favored in only 10 of 17 games and may find themselves trailing more often, which limits his big fantasy games despite his passing game contributions.

Tyson is the analyst's favorite among the expensive rookie WRs. He was the analyst's WR1 pre-draft and still likes him best in dynasty. He's right there with Carnell Tate in redraft with a 20-26 projection but tends to go later, making him a value.

Josh Jacobs is well-positioned in the Packers' ball-control, run-leaning offense with a strong defense, and the analyst has been drafting him heavily now that he's going in round four.

Jacobs gets the lion's share of rushing work and pretty much all of the touchdowns on the ground, making him a discount version of James Cook without the touchdown competition from a mobile quarterback.

Jacobs is an injury risk, having only stayed healthy in two of his seven NFL seasons at age 28, making him a potential cut candidate for Green Bay.

Colton Miller's return to health should help the Raiders offensive line improve from 32nd to potentially 24th best, aiding both protection and running lanes.

Lemon is one of the trio of more expensive rookie wide receivers being discussed.

Malik Willis presents quarterback concerns for the Dolphins offense in terms of passing volume.

Lloyd is undervalued as a super cheap handcuff behind Josh Jacobs. He's healthy after working with a biomechanics specialist who identified compensatory injuries from his 2022 ACL tear. He had a healthy spring and impressed coaching staff, with the door wide open to be the number two RB behind the injury-prone Jacobs.

Evans is the obvious candidate to be this year's Devante Adams—an older elite player changing teams. He could score double digit touchdowns with Brock Purdy.

Puka Nacua is among the elite alpha wide receivers whose production remains flat or up from previous seasons and is not coming off the field despite the shift toward more tight ends on passing downs.

Saquon Barkley is preferred over Devon Achane at similar draft ranges.

Tee Higgins is the best value among Bengals receivers, now dropping to the 3-4 turn after going at the 2-3 turn last year with no real difference in outlook, and should garner around 20% target share in a pass-heavy offense.

Alvin Kamara's return is at least slightly bad news for Travis Etienne as more competition in the backfield is not a good thing, though Kamara may only steal some passing down targets.

The analyst has been drafting a ton of Trevor Lawrence despite the Jaguars' lower-than-expected fantasy environment score, betting against Vegas that the offense will be better than projected.

The analyst has had trouble clicking on Trey McBride due to opportunity cost, and believes last year may have been his career year with so many routes run and targets, making a repeat unlikely.

McBride's 11 touchdowns last year had everything break right for him, and the analyst has a hard time seeing that repeat this year, especially if Carson Beck plays meaningful games during the fantasy playoffs.

McBride has established himself as a 25% target share guy, which should remain relatively consistent despite added competition from Jeremiah Love and other Cardinals receivers.

Tyler Linderbaum manning the center position should help with protections and create running lanes for the Raiders offense.

Shough showed quite a bit over the second half of last season and could take a step forward in year two under Kellen Moore's high-tempo Saints offense.

Tyler Warren had an excellent rookie season and prospect profile, and if the Colts find themselves trailing more and throwing more passes, he could have a really big season.