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0:43This is the Mind of Mansion program. I'm here with Brian Drake, and he knows things.
0:47And we're just going to jump right in. We have a, this is all rapid fire.
0:52We have a little over an hour with Brian, and we're just going to crank, crank, crank, crank, crank.
0:57And the theme of the show is players that we love that we can't draft because they're ADP.
1:03It's, it's a problem, man. The guy has a fantastic profile.
1:06He's really exciting. He's moving into the role we wanted to move into, but it's all priced in or it's even, it's
1:12priced in more than you could even imagine paying in a fantasy draft.
1:16So I'll start right there, Brian. Give me three players, three players that you love, great profiles, excited.
1:21Maybe you have a lot of them in dynasty, but in seasonal leagues and best ball, you just can't draft them.
1:27Well, let's first of all, thanks for having me.
1:30This is awesome. Glad to be here. Here's a player that I love.
1:34I'd love to have him on every one of my teams, but I can't draft Josh Allen in the third round because
1:40listen, folks, there's just so many more opportunities at quarterback later in the draft.
1:44Just wait until the double digit rounds. When you get your hands on Brock Purdy, maybe Jared Goff, who I'm sure we're
1:51going to talk about a little bit later. There's a million quarterbacks that I want to have on my team that I
1:57can, I know I can win my home league with.
2:00Would I love to have Josh Allen? Does he give you an advantage over every other quarterback in your league?
2:06Absolutely. Absolutely. He does, but I can't pay a third round price from it.
2:10Somebody in your league is going to someone's going to pay that.
2:13They're going to look, I got the best quarterback in the league.
2:17Said it, forget it. He's going to run for all these yards and touchdowns.
2:21That's great, but you got to know what you're missing out on early in the third round.
2:26Is that a high end receiver? Is that your second running back?
2:30You know, running backs are worth their weight and gold in fantasy football.
2:33So that's the first guy. I love Josh Allen.
2:36I cringe when I play against him in fantasy, but I can't do it.
2:40I can't draft him in the third round. If you look at the age adjusted production curve for all these positions, Josh
2:46Allen, just based on historic trends, will be rushing less and less every year from now on.
2:51He's 30 every year from now on after age 29, they run less and less and less and less and less and less.
2:58Really the decline starts at age 27 and you're already going to see that with Lamar Jackson.
3:03This is the case for Drake May that he is on.
3:06He is on the upswing. This is some, this is the, this is the case for Jackson dart that they're, they could rush even more this year.
3:14It's impossible for Jackson dart to rush any more than he did last year on a per game or per attempt basis.
3:21It's not going to happen. That was a moment in time.
3:24And I would avoid Jackson dart at all costs, given that he is at the same price point as players like Dak
3:30Prescott, but he does not have the resume. And we're not even sure how good of a thrower of footballs.
3:36He actually is. We know he doesn't have weapons to start the season at all.
3:40So that's, that's an easy avoid. And I don't love Jackson darts.
3:44I wouldn't even consider that one of my top 10 players.
3:47I love, I can't draft. I actually created an article.
3:50I wrote an article. I made a big post about this on the player profile or sub stack.
3:55So check us out on sub stack, check us out on Patreon, patreon.com slash pod father.
4:00And you can see my top 10. These guys, I'll just give you, let you know right now.
4:05Number one is like Mecca. I love Mecca. I love Mecca.
4:08I get that. He looks a lot like JSN, same draft capital, same physical profile, similar production profile, went to the same school.
4:15It's, it's almost too easy as a doppelganger. It's just too easy to just copy and paste the career arc of JSN
4:21and then impose it onto a Mecca egg book, except that a Mecca egg book is not JSN.
4:27JSN is a one of one really based on what he did last year on a low volume offense.
4:32That's a one of one season. And the, the offense that the Mecca book is in right now is very much in flux.
4:39Good news came out that Baker Mayfield was playing hurt last year, had a shoulder sprain, a knee sprain.
4:44You could tell like Baker Mayfield was, was just a bandaged together, put back together with glue type quarterback last year.
4:51And I'm excited to see what he does, you know, with it, with a healthy off season with new weapons like Ted Hurst.
4:57And a healthy Chris Godwin, but with the ADP now in the third round for a Mecca egg booka and with the
5:04ADP of Chris Godwin depends on the draft eighth, ninth, 10th round in that particular offense.
5:08I'm not trying to double stack too much with Baker Mayfield.
5:12So I'm just picking one receiver. The receiver I like in that offense this year is Chris Godwin, not just ADP, but
5:18the odds that Chris Godwin just outproduces a Mecca egg booka are pretty high.
5:22And then you look at the, the, the vast difference in ADP and it's like, okay, Chris Godwin is a smash.
5:28This is the, this is the guy that I'm focused on.
5:31And then I just, you know, I, I don't get whatever egg booka does this year.
5:36It's okay. I can promise you. He's not going to be JSN though.
5:40That is what we're hearing. That comparison is constantly being made.
5:43And he's, he's going to play the same position.
5:46He's going to play the Z position, which is where he played last year.
5:50I don't see much changing there. Chris Godwin is going to play more slot.
5:54They're going to, they're going to bunch on the right side of the formation.
5:58It's going to be Godwin and Ibuka. It's going to be a dynamic duo over there.
6:03And so I'm excited to see it, but I don't want to pay that price.
6:07I want to, I love the, I love the Godwin price.
6:10Yeah. And Godwin, we just have to hope he plays more than nine games this season.
6:15You know, last year he was really good. He's really good when he's on the field.
6:19The biggest issue though, with Chris Godwin is availability.
6:22So we'll see if he can stay on the field.
6:25Another one of the players that I listed that I don't know if I can pay the price for it's an end
6:31of the first round price and it's Ashton Gentry.
6:34And I just talked to LaDainian Tomlinson, humble brag on a, on a podcast.
6:38And he is all in. He's like, I love Gentry.
6:41He's got all the tools. He can be one of the best running backs in the league.
6:46And I don't doubt LT. He knows way more about running backs than I ever will.
6:51Well, what podcast is this? Tell us the podcast.
6:53This is the fantasy points podcast I do with John Hanson.
6:56Yeah, this is a, this is an unbelievable podcast.
6:59I love John Hanson's a legend. Brian is great.
7:02Fantasy points is great. So yeah, that's a, that look for that.
7:05So we talked to LT about it. He's like, I think he's going to be a stud.
7:10Now we've got Tyler Linderbaum at center. Here's the problem though.
7:13If I have to draft Gentry at the end of the first round, I'm still not sure their quarterback situation.
7:19I'm still not sure how many times this team is going to be in the red zone, how many touchdowns he realistically can score because like, yeah.
7:27Do they have Kirkie cousins? Okay. Well, Kirk cousins sucks.
7:30He's a shell of himself. Like look at him last year.
7:33He was awful. I don't know what Mendoza is going to do the way they're talking.
7:38They don't want to play Mendoza at all this season.
7:41Oh, stop it. I know he'll play for sure.
7:43But if I got to go week four, yeah, probably four or five weeks.
7:47Cousins doesn't have an arm. He can't make the throws anymore.
7:51And who knows if he'll even stay healthy. There could be a big sale at Kohl's by Halloween and Kirk cousins.
7:57Like, you know what? I got khakis are on sale.
8:00I got to go good luck to this kid.
8:02But it's going to be one of those situations where I would rather have a guy on a good team.
8:08A la James Cook, a la Saquon Barkley in that round.
8:11If I've got to place a chip on a running back per se, the end of round one, early round two, then Ashton Gentry.
8:18Again, super talented guy. I just don't trust the offense at all.
8:22Give me a guy on a better team in that situation.
8:25Give me one more. Give me one more. Give me one more.
8:29Okay. We got Josh Allen. We got Gentey. Gentey is very expensive.
8:32Very expensive. I will give you that. Gentey is very expensive.
8:35But these second year running backs with the first round draft capital, you know, purpose skill set.
8:40I know he's good. The sort of a blue chip prospect.
8:43He is. He is good. Major upgrades on the offensive line, the quarterback, everything.
8:48It's tough. It's tough to a tough fade. That's a tough fade.
8:51I wish I could get Ashton Gentey at the, you know, the two, three turn, or I could get him later.
8:57I don't want to have to take him 11 overall.
9:00I don't want to do it because I think there's just better players.
9:04That's why it's a tough call. So that's why I said players we love again.
9:08That's the whole topic of this players. We love, but we can't take at that ADP.
9:13Are you drafting Bowers or Gentey? The next player on my list, Brock Bowers.
9:17Ooh, players. I don't, again, I love Brock Bowers.
9:20I think he's going to be great. He's going to catch a ton of balls in this offense.
9:25Maybe we'll talk about Jalen Naylor in a little bit.
9:28Here's the problem. There's a lot of tight ends that I like later.
9:32I love Tucker Craft. Okay? I love, you want to wait forever?
9:35Get the farewell tour of Travis Kelsey. The guy's got nothing left, but you know what?
9:40He's going to catch some touchdowns. He's going to have, if you look at the numbers from last year, he had almost identical numbers as Harold Fannan.
9:48Travis Kelsey would be fine. I want to wait on my tight end.
9:51I want to load up at running back and wide receiver in the first few rounds of my draft.
9:57I'm not taking a quarterback. I'm not taking a tight end.
10:00I can live with whatever Tucker Craft or Sammy Laporta give me Harold Fannan later in the draft.
10:05I just don't want to spend that price in the second or third round on Brock Bowers.
10:10I know, look, Tina, a possible historic season. You can't project historic seasons, though, in fantasy football.
10:15Nobody was saying last year, oh, Trey McBride's going to have 150 targets or whatever he ended up with.
10:21It's tough to project historic. It's tough to project outliers.
10:24Is he great? Of course he is. But they've got a running game now.
10:28We just talked about how good their running game is.
10:31So maybe it's a little more balanced. Find something with Jalen Naylor or one of these other scrubs they got on the outside.
10:37So it's not necessarily all on Brock Bowers' shoulders.
10:40Because if you've got Kirk Cousins back there, he's going to throw the ball to the open man.
10:45Maybe that open man is always Brock Bowers. I don't know.
10:48But he's going to, I think, run a more efficient offense.
10:52I just don't want to pay that price for a tight end.
10:55That's the name of the game. All it comes down to, I'm not paying second or third round price for a tight end.
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11:53How pros get more done. This is where I agree with you.
11:57It's very difficult to pay that aggregate ADP for these players for a bad offense.
12:01You're talking about a bad offense, and you have two players with top 20 ADPs.
12:05It happens all the time. We've seen it. The Jets had it a couple of times recently.
12:10You know, there's always like some really crap team, and you're like, why are there two amazing players in the top 25 of ADP?
12:17This team's going to win four games. And, you know, it happens over and over and over again.
12:23Like, I'm not chasing that on bad teams. Give me teams that are going to score points.
12:28And the Raiders, I just don't think are. Some great comments here.
12:31Moneyball Nola's in the comments. Jared Dean, Jamie Parag, live on YouTube, you know, giving us feedback.
12:36They seem to like Bowers. He's great. He is great.
12:39We're team Bowers here. I think what you would do in this situation, what I would say is I would not be
12:45able to swallow your two players at top 20 ADPs for a bad offense.
12:49The math doesn't add up. Right? Because sometimes the math doesn't add up in the other direction.
12:54We're like, well, let me get this straight. This is going to be a top 10 offense.
12:59There's going to be a top five offense. But there's no players in the top 20.
13:04Like, this doesn't make sense either. Like, some of these guys, someone is going to smash and be an incredible value where you're paying full freight for Raiders.
13:12The one guy that I think has room to actually outperform his ADP is Bowers because he could be historic.
13:18It's going to be very difficult for Gentry to outperform his ADP in the context of that offense, given the touchdown equity
13:24is such a huge part of fantasy scoring. Bowers, though, in PPR leagues, he could just be historic.
13:30He had a historic rookie year. He was great last year before the injury.
13:34There's no other weapons there. They have nobody. Right?
13:36Jalen Naylor is a nobody. Trey Tucker is a nobody.
13:39So it's actually a pretty straight line to say, hey, Brock, but like the news is coming out, you know, it's on playerprofile.com slash news.
13:47You can see Brock Bowers teed up for historic season based on Ryan McFadden, the latest from ESPN projecting Brock Bowers.
13:53First of a record breaking 2026. We were talking about him breaking all the records two months ago.
13:58It's probably going to happen. And given that I think it's probably going to happen, it's like you can't project a historic season.
14:05But in this particular case, you kind of can't.
14:07He's that good when healthy. Yes, it could. He could get injured.
14:11But I think this year he's going to stay healthy.
14:14It was a fluke injury last year. He played through it.
14:17He probably shouldn't have. Probably shouldn't have. But I admire it.
14:20And so, yeah, I'm sort of in on Bowers in all formats.
14:24I think he's a great pick. I'm with you on Gentie.
14:27That is just a little too expensive. But I love the profile.
14:30You can just wait a year. You can wait a year.
14:33And what happens is Raiders, your overall fantasy point scoring will be below average for the team.
14:38It'll be difficult for Gentie to get there in fantasy.
14:41But then what we're going to see as Mendoza develops in the second half, the offensive production and efficiency is going to start going up.
14:49And so then what you can do is you can then take the discount on Gentie next year, knowing that there's already
14:55we're seeing positive trends at the end of this year for the Raiders, which are then going to extend into 2027.
15:01And then you have 2027 Mendoza with a receiver that they draft to help extend drives.
15:06And then that's going to be the ultimate unlock for Gentie.
15:09So I think this year you draft Bowers. Next year is the year to draft Gentie.
15:14Right. You're going to spend the 11th pick on the worst team in a division.
15:18I mean, yeah, think about that. That division's brutal.
15:21I'm with you. I'm with you. Every time I look at Gentie, I'm like, I love the player.
15:26This is tough to swallow, especially when the other options are Jonathan Taylor.
15:30It's like, come on. So it is like Jonathan Taylor, the Colts.
15:33They can't find anyone to give Jonathan Taylor a breather.
15:36They were disappointed in DJ Giddens last year that they thought that he could step up as a breather back and he couldn't.
15:43And now this year they're hoping it's Seth McGowan.
15:45He probably can't. So it's going to be all on Jonathan Taylor again.
15:49So that's a better option than Gentie in draft.
15:52So that's an easy, it's an easy. So we have that running back Gentie in 2027 at wide receiver.
15:57We have a Buka in 2027. Give me one more guy like that.
16:01Let's see. The guys that I don't love at their ADP.
16:04Especially guys that you don't love that you think next year is the year.
16:08Like this year's a great year to evaluate, but given their price point, you don't need to press the button.
16:14You can almost pre-write them in for 2027. There's two guys here I could talk about.
16:19Oh, there's really three guys who I don't really love.
16:22But you could talk about Omarion Hampton and say in this offense, is he going to be the guy?
16:27But I really want to pick your brain on Devon HN.
16:31HN last year, you know, RB5, unbelievable, just so explosive.
16:34You know, the apple of Mike McDaniel's eye. We know what he could do on a team that by the end of
16:40the season had absolutely nothing going for it. Now you get him, you know, end of the first, early second.
16:46But this team is so void of talent. They have nothing.
16:49Their quarterback now, we don't necessarily know if he's going to dump the ball off to HN.
16:54He could tuck and run. He's a running quarterback.
16:57That's what he's there to do. And who knows if Malik Willis is even there after this year.
17:02I mean, you look at his contract. He's really more of just a placeholder.
17:06But are you nervous on Devon HN, as I am, that this team's never going to be in the red zone?
17:12They're going to put eight in the box, nine in the box to try to stop this running quarterback and, you know,
17:18the best player on the team, which is a running back.
17:22And they have nothing on the outside. Nothing scares you.
17:25Tight end. Greg Dolcich, give me a break. I mean, if this was an all hair league.
17:29Yeah, great. He's a first round pick, but they have nothing at wide receiver.
17:34I worry about HN. I know he's a generational talent.
17:36Are you just closing your eyes and betting on talent and touches here?
17:40Or are you kind of like me where you're like, I mean, I kind of want him to be someone else's problem because he's so small too.
17:48He could just get beat up and pounded into submission.
17:51He's, he's a guy that really, really, I take a hard look at it ADP.
17:55And I'm like, you know what? I'd rather just have Chase Brown because I know Chase Brown's team's gonna be good.
18:02That's great logic. I love the logic there. Here is my most recent startup.
18:06It's super flex tight end premium. And you can see this is, this is the direction I went.
18:11I went to Gibbs, Herbert in the third round, the 304.
18:14Devon HN. Flowers, AJ Brown. Pitts, Derrick Henry, Matt Stafford, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin.
18:18Mike Evans, Chris Godwin. Mike Evans, no longer on the box.
18:21So yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm pretty happy with that where like the first four picks, they're not old.
18:27It's a win now team, but there's a young core, the young nucleus, including pits.
18:31And then, you know, at, in the middle part of the draft, you get some guys are going to produce huge numbers
18:38this year, like Mike Evans and Matt Stafford and Derrick Henry.
18:41And then I'm going to start to go back to youth.
18:44I'm going to backfill the team for taxi squad, the practice squad, but also the bench.
18:49Someone's got to win the league this year. People forget that in dynasty all the time.
18:53It's not about your 2032 championship build. I'm not sacrificing future years.
18:57Don't worry. I have all my picks. I did not trade any 2027 picks.
19:01I'm not doing that. I'm not trying to go all in for this year.
19:05I think I can win this year without making any big sacrifices.
19:09And there's going to be plenty of rounds. I love my ability to mine young talent in the later rounds, which gives
19:15me the ability to go with an AJ Brown, a Derrick Henry, a Matt Stafford, a Mike Evans, you know, in rounds five through 10 in a startup.
19:23Those are the rounds where I like to target the older super producers, because if you go young in those situations, you
19:30could really, you could, you could end up with nothing.
19:32You could end up with it, with a Bucky Irving re-injuring a shoulder, a generic price, just not being able to handle NFL edge rushers and pass protection.
19:41Marvin Harrison Jr. could just be a bust to all of our dismay.
19:44So there's lots of RJ Harvey getting a touch squeeze that we saw coming, but didn't really appreciate like how, how bad
19:51it would be with the addition of Jonah Coleman and how they, they see JK Dobbins as a, as a team captain.
19:57So I just go ahead and avoid those guys, avoid the sort of fragile younger players with fragile, more fragile projections and,
20:04and, and, and, and lean on the, the, you know, the veterans that we know are, are going, you know, top 20 in best ball this year.
20:12So when seasonal leagues is a first, second round pick, but you get them in the seventh round, the ninth round of a startup.
20:18It's a, it's a, it's a pretty, it's a pretty great situation.
20:22There's a handful of players that in this draft I would have drafted had they made it to me like cam Scadaboo,
20:28but I'm also going against some, some, uh, pod father, uh, acolytes.
20:32It's tough when you're drafted against people that read all your own work.
20:36They know you're sleepers. They know who you like.
20:38Yeah. I'm like, uh, I'm like, that's a great pick of Scadaboo there.
20:42I wonder why you decided to pick him just before I did, uh, was going to, uh, a couple rounds ahead of ADP right in front of me.
20:50Why'd you, I wonder why you did. Oh, because you knew I was going to be okay.
20:55That Scadaboo is an interesting player here. It's just, we go off the rails, but no, no, no.
21:00Scadaboo is a, I can't stop talking about him.
21:03I was at the game where he got injured in Philadelphia.
21:06That was, that was gruesome. I can't believe that guy's already back on the practice field doing backflips and you're running headfirst
21:13into walls, but he's at a weird spot of ADP where it's kind of like it's a, there's a tear break.
21:19Okay. Let me pull this up here. Running back.
21:21I think he's like a fifth round pick, right?
21:24Let's go to cam Scadaboo end of the fourth round.
21:27If you look like underdog for instance, but look at this tier, how it kind of dries up Scadaboo.
21:33We know we can catch the football too. He's got a nose for the end zone.
21:37Then after that, you got David Montgomery, super boring, but I think it's going to be really, really strong this year.
21:43And then there's some questions. Deandre Swift. How good is he really?
21:47Monunga's there too. Trey beyond Henderson. Who knows? Bucky Irvin with a bad shoulder.
21:51I mean, can't Scadaboo has top 10 running back upside and to get him in the middle to late fourth round.
21:57I mean, you can build a really nice roster if he's your RB two in the fourth end of a tier.
22:03That's what he is. Like, I don't think he's in a weird spot.
22:07I think he's in a smash spot. I like that.
22:10He's in a smash spot. This is one of those teams where the giants are not a top offense.
22:15So you can't be drafting all their guys. You got to pick your spots with all these bad offenses.
22:21Like we talked about with the Raiders, pick your spots, right?
22:24You can't go. Gentie and Bowers makes no sense.
22:27The math doesn't add up. Okay. The math also doesn't add up in New York.
22:31Doesn't add up with Jackson dark. It does add up with cam Scadaboo in that, you know, that that's going to be their identity this year.
22:39So one of the bit, one of my big mantras this year is to embrace what teams are telling you about themselves
22:45because they have no incentive to lie. There's plenty of times when teams have incentive to lie about injuries, injury timelines.
22:51That's the last thing I would listen to a coach on is a player's injury timeline.
22:56Okay. But when they come out and talk to reporters, go on radio shows, podcasts, and talk about their identity, there's just
23:02no reason to lie about that, right? They're out in the open.
23:06And also some of their free agent moves give, give the game away, right?
23:10Houston's given the game away. They're bringing in David Montgomery.
23:13They're giving the game away. And then they're going out publicly and saying, we are a defense and running game team.
23:19I love that Montgomery pick. I'm going to have him on a lot of teams this year.
23:24That's how we're going to win games this year.
23:26We're not going to win games with CJ Stroud.
23:29And they even admitted like, this is rare. They admitted that they made a mistake that, Hey, we didn't have enough internal
23:36controls on our play calling last year. And we started skewing pass heavy with our play calling inadvertently.
23:41Like it was a mistake. We didn't, we made a mistake.
23:44It was a glitch in our play calling last year.
23:47We're going to fix the glitch. Part of fixing that glitch is bringing in David Montgomery to remind us to run the ball.
23:54How many years in a row do the Texans have to have horrible offensive coordinators, by the way?
23:59Like, what is this like three years in a row now?
24:02Just let it, they let it get away from them.
24:05They let, they let the play calling get away from the last year.
24:09And so people are building projections for a guy like Nico Collins.
24:12I like Nico Collins. I like Jaden Higgins. I like Jalen Noel.
24:16I like Tank Dell. I like all those players, not drafting them.
24:19You got a quarterback that can't process anything back there and their offensive line sucks.
24:24They, every year, they just keep letting guys go.
24:26You just see, Oh, Texans. Let this guy go.
24:29Let this guy go. Let this guy go. Like where's the offensive line.
24:33And then you've got this quarterback. Doesn't know what he's looking at back there.
24:37But if you look at some of the deeper metrics on CJ Stroud, it never shows up in those analytical breakdowns that
24:43us fantasy dorks like to talk about because he gets rid of the football and throws away and he doesn't take sacks.
24:50So what happens is you just go like, Oh yeah, CJ Stroud's great.
24:53No, he just throws the ball away a lot.
24:56His completion percentage is terrible because he gets back there.
24:59He doesn't know what he's looking at and just throws the ball out of bounds.
25:03And that's the Texans offense in a nutshell last year.
25:06And the Texans have not offered him a contract extension yet because they have concerns about his work ethic because he's not
25:13showing up as much as they would like to the building early, staying late, watching the film that he should be.
25:19He's basically showing up saying, Hey, I'm here and I'm ready to go.
25:22And it's like, yeah, well, you're one of the last people to arrive.
25:26And we're glad you showed up, but we're excited.
25:29And we have an agenda to make sure we lock in Will Anderson as a franchise player.
25:34And we do not have that approach with you because we're not sure.
25:38And why should we be sure? And then we're paying up.
25:41We're paying again. I had this complaint last year about the Texans.
25:44I'm like, it doesn't add up. I remember when it was Collins and Diggs and it was like, do you realize the
25:51kind of season CJ Stroud has to have for all these guys to deliver at ADP?
25:55It makes no sense. Now we're talking about a team where they're openly apologizing for last year and they are trying to
26:02fix their pass rate and bring it down this year.
26:05They are actively going to do that. So just draft David Montgomery or even Woody Marks and don't worry about the pass catchers.
26:11They're all overvalued. The one guy that could deliver is Tank Dell.
26:15Tank Dell has the possibility because you get it for nothing at the end of drafts too.
26:20Yeah. Just like Jonathan Brooks. Like if Jonathan Brooks is back a hundred percent, if he has all the bursts and all
26:26the flexibility and he's fully back, then he's going to be a value.
26:30Oh yeah. There's no part of me wants Chuba Hubbard.
26:33Same thing with Tank Dell. It's a huge question mark.
26:36If he is Tank Dell this year, he is going to deliver.
26:39That's the one guy that you could argue. Okay.
26:42You could draft it. If you need a member of this passing game, you absolutely need a member of this passing game.
26:48Then it's going to be Tank Dell. And then there's like this notion of inevitability, like, well, Dalton Schultz always does it.
26:55Dalton Schultz is always a top 12 tight end.
26:57So it's inevitable. No, it's not. He's not good.
27:00He gets a lot of targets though. That's the crazy thing.
27:03Just like Pat Fryermuth. I heard this about Pat Fryermuth, right?
27:07I heard this about Pat. And then they bring in John O.
27:10Smith situation changes on him. And now he's not a top even 20 PPR tight end.
27:15I thought Pat Fryermuth was every year. You could set the watch by him.
27:19No, actually, no, he's not good enough. Like he's not a target commander in and of himself.
27:24And when Schultz is just one of a bunch of guys in the mix for targets behind Collins and behind Jaden Higgins,
27:30who I really like, I really like Jaden Higgins in another situation.
27:34I would be smashing Jaden Higgins. But right now I don't see it.
27:37I draft him and now I can't start him.
27:40So what is he a handcuff? What are we even talking about here?
27:44Yeah. I mean, you look at Higgins to me.
27:46I mean, Jaden Higgins and you look at who he reminds me of and it's T Higgins.
27:51You know, you're like, oh wow. You've got this tall athletic receiver on the outside opposite, you know, our number one.
27:58But, you know, T CJ shroud is not Joe Burrow.
28:00And this offense obviously is not going to be called the same way.
28:04The Bengals defense is not the Texans defense. So yeah, you're right on that is I don't love trying to get my
28:11hands on any of those Texans like Nico Collins.
28:13I would take if you get Nico Collins in the second, I think he's going to come through for you just on on pure volume and some touchdowns.
28:21He's you know, he's a good player. They've paid him as such, but he's also a guy though.
28:27Let me ask you. Do you think Nico could be a little overvalued with all of these options?
28:32And now how they're telling us they want to run the football is, is he a guy overvalued in round two overvalued?
28:38He you can't draft this guy. He's untouchable. Untouchable.
28:41You say, oh, no, no. This guy's undraftable. You can't.
28:44You can't even come close to drafting this guy.
28:46He's so overvalued. He's the most overvalued of all the wide receivers for all the reasons I just gave you.
28:52They drafted a guy that looks a lot like him in Jaden Higgins.
28:56Same dude. So he has like skill set redundancy.
28:59I mean, it's an embarrassment of riches. A lot of these teams are like, man, must be nice to have an X receiver.
29:05We have you guys have two. Congrats. We don't have any over here.
29:09I'm an Eagles fan. We don't have any. We get that time.
29:13David Wicks is what I'm saying. Yeah. The Eagles are like, we could use one.
29:17Yeah, we'll take them. The Colts are like, we have Josh Downs.
29:21I don't know. A stretch player that we're going to try to convert into an X receiver.
29:26But, you know, field stretcher that could be an X maybe in a world where we are using our imagination only.
29:32Alec Pierce. So, yeah. I mean, Alec Pierce is undraftable.
29:35Nico Collins is undraftable. And Malik Neighbors is undraftable.
29:37So, those are three players that, whether I like them or not, are just simply completely and utterly undraftable.
29:43I would not touch them completely. Like, they might as well be covered in toxic waste.
29:47They would have to fall so far before I would even consider them.
29:51Malik Neighbors' ADP has come down now. I think it's like third round, depending on where you're looking at it.
29:57Okay. But still, I was thinking about, oh, no, here we go, is with Malik Neighbors.
30:02I've done this before, and I don't want to do it again, where you try to play hero in your fantasy league.
30:08And you go, I'm going to draft this guy.
30:11I'm going to stash him on my bench for six weeks.
30:14And I'm going to outdraft my competition. And then I'm going to pull Malik Neighbors in midseason, put him in my starting
30:20lineup, and I'm going to kick everyone's ass. That never works out.
30:24Every year, there's one of these guys that's like, oh, do I draft this guy who's suspended for half the year?
30:30Do I draft this guy who's hurt, and he's going to come back and be a super stud?
30:35It never pays off. I mean, last year, it was Rishi Rice, right?
30:39It's like, oh, I'm going to draft Rishi Rice.
30:42I'm not going to play him for half the year, then plug him in, and then it's like, oh, wait, then he gets hurt.
30:49And now my team's screwed again. So, yeah, I'm not trying to play hero ball with Malik Neighbors.
30:54So I'm with you on that one for sure.
30:56Mile High Stello says that I'm crazy to not draft Nico Collins.
31:00He got him at wide receiver 12, the 305, and the big gorilla at the FFPC.
31:05Good luck. I wish I had the money to do all these FFPC drafts, by the way.
31:10I love the FFPC. I get to go on a lot of their drafts and commentate them.
31:15But, man, I've got a wife and two kids.
31:17I don't have $350 or whatever's to plop down for all these drafts.
31:21Send me some free drafts, FFPC. Come on. I'll tweet some stuff out for you.
31:25Get your boy in. Best of luck to Mile High Stello.
31:29That's all I can say. Best of luck. You drafted Nico Collins to be a top 12 wide receiver.
31:34You're living in a different world. This is a different reality.
31:37Certainly, it's the worst stack in all of best ball.
31:40It is. Well, is it? I guess I shouldn't say that for sure because Jaden Higgins isn't that expensive.
31:46But I have to think that it's one of the worst stacks.
31:49Stroud, Collins, Higgins. That's a pretty horrible stack. I would feel terrible about that.
31:53I mean, Nico Collins still was top 10 last year in fantasy points per game.
31:58So it's not like he's the worst. I mean, he averaged more points again than A.J.
32:02Brown or C.D. Lamb or Zay Flowers or any of these guys.
32:06But I'm not as down on Nico as you are.
32:09But I don't love trying to pair him with anyone when you're trying to do that stack.
32:14I don't love that at all because I don't trust any of those guys behind.
32:18I'd rather have Dalton Schultz probably be one of those other wide receivers.
32:22You can only double stack a top 10 offense.
32:24I mean, most of the time. I'm sure there's exceptions.
32:27But generally speaking, teams I want to double stack.
32:30Oh, I don't know. Lions. Right. Bengals. The Rams.
32:33Cowboys. Rams. Double stack away. They have the pass volume and the touchdown equity to make it happen.
32:38To support that decision. To make the math work out.
32:41These lower volume offenses. No way. No way. What liquid neighbors?
32:44What are you gaining? What are you gaining? Oh, congratulations.
32:47Congratulations. You have a quarterback. We're not even sure is an NFL caliber thrower of footballs.
32:52You have a knee that we're not even sure will ever be the same.
32:56I'm the worst turf in the league. What are you trying to gain here?
33:00I know what's going to happen. I've seen this movie so many times with neighbors.
33:04Neighbors is going to give you one spike week.
33:07One. You'll have some nice performances. He's going to have some 14 point performances and an 18 point performance.
33:12He's going to have a few performances later in the year.
33:15And he's going to look like, oh, he's almost all the way back.
33:19And then he's going to have that one spike week.
33:22He's going to give a spike week. He's going to give you like a 33 point game.
33:27It'll be like week 15, something like that. He's going to have a spike week.
33:31And that's going to be about it. That's going to be about it.
33:35You're going to have a handful of usable weeks.
33:38One spike week. That's it. That's all you're going to get.
33:41You're going to get more than that in best ball from Christian Watson.
33:45I like Christian Watson. Yeah. I like Watson a lot this year.
33:48Well, of course you love Watson because you're a smart guy.
33:52Of course you love Watson. In terms of total fantasy points.
33:55I mean, he's not going to play every week.
33:57So we know. But I mean, what about Josh Downs?
34:00Josh Downs is interesting because there's a case against Josh Downs that he is too small to command, you know, an alpha target share.
34:07And even if he does, you know, he's, you know, low a dot.
34:11He's not going to give you the upside. Not going to give you the spike weeks.
34:16That's exactly it. That's what I'm hearing. I had this exact conversation earlier this morning with Graham Barfield and John Hanson on the fantasy points live stream.
34:24We talked that they love Josh Downs. And it's a lot of the reasons you look at that Indianapolis Colts, you know,
34:30offense and you just go, there's nobody else here.
34:33You got Alec Pierce who for better or worse just got paid and he's their, their alpha on the outside.
34:39You've got Tyler Warren who everybody loves at tight end.
34:41And then this is a team that's going to want to run the football with, with JT.
34:46So, all right, let's say he's your fourth option at this point.
34:50So now he's the fourth option on a team.
34:53That's probably going to play at a fairly slow pace.
34:55I do like, you know, the play caller. So I like that, but you're telling me a guy who isn't a big
35:02touchdown score is going to have a low a dot, isn't going to put up a ton of yards, like just draft
35:08Parker Washington two rounds earlier and get a much better player.
35:11The, a guy that can actually, you know, win down the field and at all different levels.
35:16Like that's who I would rather play than getting Josh Downs.
35:20If you're in a half PPR or non PPR, don't draft Josh Downs.
35:23It's not going to help you at all. Like you've got to have a certain construct to your league to draft Josh Downs.
35:30Maybe he blows up and he's awesome this year.
35:33Remember two years ago, he was really good for a stretch, but I don't know.
35:37Again, am I crazy here saying he's the fourth option on a kind of slow paced team that, I mean, am I going to build my roster?
35:45I mean, like you guys have him here on the screen at player profile at wide receiver 44.
35:50That's fine. He can fit into a best ball lineup or whatever, but in terms of a managed league, like are you
35:57ever going to be excited to have Josh Downs in his wide receiver three?
36:01The wide receiver 44. That's what he did last year.
36:04That was his fantasy point output last year. Yeah.
36:06I'm very excited about Josh Downs because he isn't Wandale Robinson.
36:09He's more explosive. He's better. He set the record in college for most receiving yards by a sophomore wide receiver in division one history.
36:16He came out early because he is a phenomenon player.
36:19He's much better than Alec Pierce as a player, as a, as a football player.
36:24It Tyler Warren, certainly elite tight end. I think that if you have to think about what the identity of this team
36:30is going to be, again, embrace the identity of the team.
36:33The team wants to be a run first team.
36:36That means you can't be out there drafting Nico Collins in the top 50, right?
36:40So most of those wide receivers that I'm drafting in the top 50, they're on the elite offenses for all the obvious reasons.
36:47And if there was some wide receiver that people were talking themselves into on the Colts in the top 50, I would be like, no, thank you.
36:55But this is, this is where you would take their wide receiver one.
36:59That's where Downs is going. If you're convinced that he's the wide receiver one, especially knowing that Alec Pierce may not even be on the team.
37:06He may be on the pop in week one.
37:09There's been conflicting reports about when he's going to actually be ready.
37:12It's now mid July. We haven't heard anything from the Colts about Alec Pierce being ready for training camp.
37:18He is not going to be ready for training camp.
37:21He is not going to be playing in preseason.
37:23And I think it's a coin flip whether or not he's on the active roster in week one.
37:29And this just all sets up every drill, every, every sort of a installation of the game plan that happens between now
37:35and week one, it's going to all be about Josh Downs.
37:38And that is the reason that is the reason I would say that he is going to be able to catch a
37:45lot of these passes close to the line of scrimmage, you know, with, you know, depth the target below 10.
37:51And he is exquisite pirouetting and turning that ball upfield and getting yards after the catch.
37:55And you're going to yards after the catch, not as sticky as air yards.
37:59But if you have the athleticism, the football skills, the explosiveness to be, you know, a mini Debo like he does, then
38:06you can walk into one of these outlier seasons for a guy like Josh Downs, where the moon and the stars align and he has a monster year.
38:14And you're like, how is this even possible given his physical profile?
38:17And it's like, well, you know, the other receiver in week one across from him was Ashton Doolin.
38:23So he is going to get 15 targets in that environment.
38:26And then they're good. They're going to punch it in with Jonathan Taylor and it's going to be fine.
38:31You can just load up on all the Jonathan Taylor and all the Josh Downs and even some Tyler Warren and the
38:38math works out based on those ADPs. Fly me to the moon.
38:41I'm curious how they're going to divide things up without Michael Pittman there anymore, who by the way, I love in Pittsburgh.
38:48I think Michael Pittman is going to be their number one there.
38:51But I mean, Josh Downs last year, the route share wasn't great.
38:55Only ran 62% of the team's routes. I mean, the yardage, forget about it.
38:59Barely got over 560 yards. And you look at even you get some of the real dorky metrics, you know, the yards
39:05per route run and all that and the yards per target.
39:08I mean, he got smoked by other guys on this team.
39:12I'm just worried that they don't use him in a situation where he can get down the field and score meaningful fantasy points for us.
39:19That's that's what the name of the game is.
39:22Can this guy score fantasy points for me? And I mean, because last year he didn't at all.
39:27And any of these outlying metrics that you look at, you go, I mean, his explosiveness rating was not good.
39:33He was not good last year. The argument is that he was hurt.
39:36That is his yards per reception collapsed from over 11 to under 10 last year.
39:41And that there were extenuating circumstances. The year before that, he was a top 30 wide receiver.
39:46He was cool in fantasy points per game. He was on track and we played 14 games.
39:51He was on track for a thousand yard season.
39:53And so that is that is the the season that I'm circling, especially because Daniel Jones didn't play a full season.
39:59And so then a bunch of things worked against him.
40:02And this is the thing with wide receivers. Go look back at wide receiver seasons.
40:07They oscillate wildly, like from season to season based on health, based on situation, because their production is fragile because they require
40:13another player to deliver the ball to them. They're not just taking carries and it's all on their shoulders of what they do.
40:20Jonathan Taylor, his year to year production is going to be pretty consistent because he just gets the carries and he does his thing.
40:27Offensive line doesn't have huge variation year to year.
40:29But when there's quarterback variation and there's personnel variation and all that is like, oh God, like, you know, especially they even
40:36have the luxury of being a dome team and you add weather into it.
40:40It's just I'm I'm less likely to look back at a single season for a wide receiver and put that on them
40:46as an indictment because you can you can just look at last year and say Josh now is not for me.
40:52I get it, man. I just I I'm going I'm more winding the clock back one year.
40:57I'm not against him seeing what he's capable of, especially when I when you sort a list of teams by vacated targets and you're like, where is it?
41:06And I got our draft kit like we have the vacated targets right there.
41:10It's like, OK, clearly someone is going to win here and I'm going to go with a guy that's healthy, not the
41:16guy that may miss the first three, four or five games of the season in Alec Pierce and also just the guy that's better at football.
41:24So hopefully you're convinced on Josh Downs or we can just, you know, politely agree to disagree on that one.
41:29I think he's going to be he'll be OK.
41:32He's not someone I'm outwardly targeting, but I think in your home leagues and that's kind of the world I live in
41:38with with folks is, of course, being the hero of the home league.
41:42And I think Josh Downs is a guy that a lot of home league players are going to sleep on and they're
41:49going to be like, oh, yeah, Josh, was he any good?
41:52I remember two years ago I got off the waiver wire.
41:55He was all right for five minutes. So it's going to be very but you also mentioned Parker Washington, Parker Washington and
42:02Josh Downs are both going to be very, very, very, very available in leagues in August draft.
42:06Parker Washington plays Parker Washington is awesome. He's awesome.
42:09He's an awesome football player. Now he's not even a Josh Downs level athlete, but he's bigger and he is sort of
42:15like a, you know, kind of combination Roddy White style player to play off of the Brian Thomas, Julio Jones.
42:21That's how I guess kind of how I see him.
42:24And I'm just totally disregarding Travis Hunter because I'm like, why do I care about Travis Hunter again?
42:29We have Brian Thomas and Parker Washington. I don't think I need to worry about Travis Hunter.
42:34And then they go get Jacoby Myers. Yeah. And then while I'm also penciling in all these targets over here for Jacoby
42:41Myers, this is an offense that very much because of Parker Washington could be a top 10 offense.
42:46And therefore a double stack is very much a positive EV play to go Lawrence, Thomas, Washington, Washington in these startups because he hasn't been extended yet.
42:54He's not overvalued, overpriced because typically a guy's 24 years old and he's starting to produce those guys.
42:59They get steamed up in dynasty. That has not yet happened with Parker Washington.
43:03So you look at Parker Washington, if he gets a contract extension, then he's going to move up, you know, even not just in dynasty.
43:11It's just, it's going to be just a big positive signal to the world, to the entire fantasy community that this guy is good.
43:18And that's also coming from Michael Wilson. So I see Michael Wilson and Parker Washington have some parallels, but it's interesting that
43:24the people I've talked to a lot of them that like Parker Washington do not like Michael Wilson.
43:29Michael Wilson, I mean, really, it comes back to my buddy, John Daigle tweeted this out.
43:34Let me see if I can pull this up here.
43:37And it just comes down to those splits with Marvin Harrison Jr.
43:40on the field and with him not on the field.
43:43Let me see if I can find it. Where did I know?
43:47I put this in my show notes here about riveting, riveting podcast here, but I actually did either way.
43:52If I can't find where I actually type, we know the splits are horrible.
43:56They're horrible. They're horrible. When Michael Wilson was playing without Marvin Harrison Jr., he put up multiple wide receiver one overall weeks.
44:03The important part of that beyond Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:05being in or out is wide receiver one overall week.
44:08You can't drop Alec Pierce into an offense and expect a wide receiver one overall week.
44:13I think you can. I think you can. You could get that.
44:16I mean, you could have a week because fantasy football.
44:19So we see like the first week of the year every year where it's like some rando dude you've never heard of
44:26catches, you know, six for one 20 and two touchdowns.
44:29And I was like, pick this guy up off the waiver wire.
44:32You never hear him again. Keon Coleman did that.
44:35You know, he had a like, he had a Coleman eight targets like week one last year.
44:40And it was like, Keon Coleman's going to be great.
44:43Keon Coleman sucks. Okay. But no, you could have a wide receiver one week out of Alec Pierce.
44:48Of course you could. He could catch two long bombs for a touch.
44:52That's what he does. We're just looking for an outlier one week.
44:55Yeah, it's possible. It's possible. Let's see. Alec Pierce.
44:58I'm just looking at the game log here from last year.
45:01Alec Pierce had one. Yes. He had one week with 29 fantasy points.
45:05He was the wide receiver two in week 18.
45:07Week 18. He did exactly what you're talking about.
45:10He did exactly what you're talking about. He had 132 yards and two touchdowns on all of four catches.
45:16That's all you need. So he did exactly what you're talking about.
45:19Got paid. I love how we can both be right in that technically it wasn't a wide receiver one week.
45:25So I'm right. But then you're also right in that he did exactly what you said he could do.
45:30And that's certainly fine. I'd like to see him do it multiple times.
45:34In fact, he did multiple times have two touchdowns on four catches.
45:38It's just in the other week, he wasn't able to get over 100 yards.
45:42And then every other week after that, he could not crack the top 12.
45:46Michael Wilson was just a consistent mega producer for the entire second half without Mike, without Marvin Harrison Jr.
45:51I was very impressed with that. And I don't think many wide receivers could do that.
45:56And so I believe that we may be seeing a changing of the guard based on last year because it's unclear whether Marvin Harrison Jr.
46:03is going to be able to do it. Two years, he's been commanding targets based on his reputation and his resume and his last name, right?
46:11So this year, he's going to have to do it with something other than name ID.
46:16And I want to see it. I want to see it.
46:19So for that reason, I like Michael Wilson more of a dynasty asset in that he's very inexpensive given his age and his production profiles.
46:26Almost a similar ADP in dynasty as you're getting in seasonal leagues.
46:30Whereas in dynasty, I like that I'm going to get this free look this year and then whatever happens, happens.
46:35Whereas I would rather not have everything riding on this year.
46:39It's probably the case that the top five pick in Marvin Harrison Jr.
46:42isn't horrible. And he does make it difficult for Michael Wilson to get there this year, especially given that they went and drafted a running back.
46:50It's another thing I'm thinking, okay, this is another one of those teams where they said explicitly, we threw the ball too
46:56much last year and we're going to draft a running back and we're going to be more of a run first team this year.
47:03We're going to try to manage these games a little bit better.
47:07They've been open about saying that. So knowing that it, the math doesn't really add up this year from Michael Wilson.
47:13But the reason I think he's nice in dynasty is because if he does put up some nice efficiency metrics that he
47:19can outperform his ADP without smashing, without being like a super seasonal asset.
47:23And then next year it's possible that he is viewed as the wide receiver one, especially if it, if what ends up
47:30happening, what could happen is Marvin Harrison Jr. flames out and it's one of these epic busts that we all remember.
47:36Like I remember it's been a while since we had one of these top five busts.
47:40We had a bunch, right? I think multiple were named Mike Williams, right?
47:44And we certainly had Charles Rogers. We had several top 10, top five, even wide receivers that were complete flame outs.
47:50It's been a while since that's happened, but we're due like we're due for a big name, big draft capital wide receiver
47:57to come in, feel entitled and then have the league slap them around.
48:01And then they're not able to come back. Some players, they can get slapped around and they, they show up as a different guy.
48:08CJ Stroud's trying to do that, right? CJ Stroud came in with a new haircut, whole new style, whole new approach, whole new attitude.
48:15Cause he knows I like the new haircut. He knows this is it.
48:18I, you know, we have million hundreds of millions.
48:21His agents like, listen, hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake right now.
48:25So you need to become a new guy. Tyler Murray's agent saying the same thing.
48:29But when we look Michael Wilson, I mean, he's done nothing for two and a half years.
48:34Then all of a sudden you get to week 11 of last season, week 11 and 12, the guy 33 combined targets over two games.
48:42It's just the perfect storm of nobody, you know, a guy gets hurt.
48:45You got a quarterback journeyman who played out of his mind, a defense who couldn't catch a cold, uh, you know, and
48:52still mind you fed a tight end with like the most targets in the history of the position.
48:57So this was just a historically bad team that was just like the hell with it.
49:02We can't run. We're just chucking a ball all over the place.
49:05I just, there's no way this happens again. You're not going to see Michael Wilson with 16 target games again this year.
49:12I just, I can't imagine it. You can't imagine it.
49:15But if Marvin Harrison Jr. After week three or four just says, I'm not about this life and just quits, takes a knee.
49:21Listen, man, it happens. Like it happens. Sometimes people wake up one day and they're like, listen, this isn't for me.
49:27Like I'm not, I'm not built for this. I'm sorry.
49:30Like college was fun. We had a great time.
49:33Oh, I miss college, but I'm not built for this.
49:36I'm not. I can't do it. I can't. I'm sorry.
49:39I can't do it. I'm not sorry. I just can't do it.
49:42I'm sorry. Sorry. Not sorry. And so that's very much a possibility.
49:46But even then what I'm saying, Michael Wilson may not get there.
49:49He may not deliver it. Redraft ADP because of the presence of Trey McBride and a lower volume offense.
49:55So for that reason, I'm not aggressively drafting Michael Wilson and best ball this year or anything like that.
50:00No way. But I'm, but I am always hunting for players.
50:04I've always thought we're talented. And so it's a confirmation bias thing.
50:07I get it. Uh, but it's, it's pretty strong confirmation bias.
50:10When you think a guy is really good seeing him in college, seeing him at the senior bowl, Michael Wilson's a really good football player.
50:18Yeah. I had him on a dynasty team and I know you guys do great work here, you know, looking at young
50:24ascending talent and, you know, with the breakout age and all that dominator score, the stuff you guys do.
50:29By the way, I love the guy in the chat already talking about Charlie Kolar as if he hasn't already seen our show sheet.
50:36But, uh, yeah, it's, I think Michael Wilson's fine.
50:39I don't think he's overly talented, but I mean, like we said, that was the perfect freaking storm.
50:44Um, he looks the part too, by the way, Michael Wilson, he looks good.
50:48Smells good. Smells good. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. Michael Wilson.
50:51He, he look, he looks, uh, looks very, he is like, uh, it's the best comp for him in terms of like, uh, physique Jude Bellingham for England.
51:00Okay. So he, Jude Bellingham is always looking sharp and, you know, put together.
51:04And, uh, I follow Michael Wilson on Instagram. Uh, and, uh, my daughter follows his wife on Instagram.
51:09They recently had a kid. Like I, you clearly there's massive bias that I have with Michael Wilson.
51:14Right. Uh, and even then, even given this couldn't draft him in seasonal leagues, let someone else draft him.
51:20Like, and I love him and I love him, but in dynasty, I'm always hunting talent and I'm like, okay, he's top
51:26of the ADP board and no one wants this guy because they've heard too many podcasts like yours where they're like, listen,
51:32this is not, this is not ever going to happen again.
51:36And then eventually you're like, I have a talented player in his prime.
51:39They get a quarterback upgrade next year. And Marvin Harrison flames out.
51:43But suddenly it's going to be the Wilson McBride show in 2027.
51:46I can totally see it. And I'm here for it.
51:49Last year of his rookie contract, by the way, Michael Wilson, they're going to extend him.
51:54That's the other thing is that the people in Arizona see him every day.
51:58And if they go and give him a big contract, a Parker Washington level contract, that's also going to reaffirm my priors on this.
52:05It'd be interesting to see what kind of contract they offer him.
52:09Cause you know, he's going to be an unrestricted free agent after this year, because he had those big numbers.
52:14If I'm his agent, I'm saying we're not just taking the hometown discount here.
52:18We're going to go test the market. They can tag you if they want, but that's a big number.
52:24If you're going to tag a guy like Michael Wilson, I don't think that that'll happen, but go test the market.
52:30See what people think. See if they thought those last few games of the 2025 season were legit.
52:35And what kind of money you can get on the open market.
52:39It's, it's very, it's very interesting. People in the chat are saying that I, that I'm disappointing RC Fisher with my, my, no, I love Michael Wilson.
52:47My whole, the whole point of the show is there are players.
52:50We love that for various reasons, we just can't draft them specifically in seasonal leagues.
52:55It's just, it's mostly because their offenses are not geared to deliver footballs to them in high fantasy point scoring situations.
53:01That is the bottom line. The giants are poised to feed cam Scadaboo and get him there.
53:06They're not poised to deliver for any of the receivers, Arizona, the way Arizona is set up, it's going to be very
53:12difficult for anyone in that offense to get there.
53:15Right. Just like it's going to be, it's going to be impossible.
53:18It's impossible for both Jente and Bowers to deliver this year.
53:21That's what we're talking about. And we can love these guys.
53:25That's the, that's why it's an interesting topic. Arizona has no interest in scoring points this year.
53:30They want a quarterback in the draft there. I mean, they're, it's going to be like a major league scenario where there's
53:36like, you were pulling guys out of the game.
53:39You know, they might have a cardboard cutout of the owner on the sidelines, peeling pieces off every time they score a touchdown, but they want a quarterback.
53:47Like they're going to put Carson back in the game.
53:50And if Carson backs in there, good luck to any of these guys you drafted.
53:54Yeah, exactly. You mentioned Kyler. Kyler's back, man. Kyler's going to be back.
53:58So just draft Kyler Murray. You know, you, I like, we've seen enough, right?
54:02We've seen enough. Now we know that Kyler Murray wants to produce this year.
54:06He is incentivized. He's delivering throughout OTAs and he has lots of weapons.
54:10They've even upgraded the weapons with Juwan Jennings. So just know that this is going to be, they don't have a running
54:16game that they want to lean on. This is going to be the Kyler Murray fireworks display in the sky, top five
54:23quarterback in fantasies in his range of outcomes. Yeah, he's older, but he's still, we talked about it.
54:28He's still in the window to be a high rushing yard quarterback.
54:31So just, just do it. On the flip side, Carolina, they know their strength is defense and offensive line, and they're going to run the ball.
54:39And so Jonathan Brooks, even Chuba Hubbard, these are eat your vegetables situation, right?
54:43Chuba Hubbard. He's inexpensive, but he's in the exact right situation.
54:46So anyone drafts Chuba Hubbard, I'm like, that's not a bad pick.
54:50What am I going to say to that? Like, that's the right guy in the right system.
54:55You go, go with Ted McMillan much, much, much, much, much earlier.
54:58You're, you have headwinds that you're dealing with. It's very, it's going to be tough, right?
55:03So with a guy with the Carolina, I'd rather take a shot on a tight end or a wide receiver two on
55:09that team than being all in on the number one receiving option on a team that wants to slow the game down,
55:16wants to grind it out and play to their strengths.
55:19So we in fantasy can just play to the strengths of the team, listen to what they want to do and not
55:25be overexposed to Ted McMillan this year. I like, I liked what you said about the running game here.
55:31I'm not as high as others on Chuba Hubbard.
55:33I don't think Chuba Hubbard's great. I think they saw last year in Chuba Hubbard and he did get banged up and
55:40that's why they leaned on my guy, Uncle Rico a ton.
55:43But if Jonathan Brooks is healthy, you remember there was like a 900 yard season for Chuba Hubbard and then they went undrafted Jonathan Brooks.
55:50Yes, he blew out his ACL twice, but they wanted Jonathan Brooks to be the guy.
55:55And I think if and when he's healthy this year, and by all means, it looks like he is, I think they're
56:01going to really want to give him a run.
56:04And he's, I think he's way too cheap in drafting.
56:07People have just forgotten about Jonathan Brooks. We've just talked about him so much that sometimes I want to make sure I
56:13mentioned Chuba Hubbard, that this is another guy that's on that team that's in the right situation.
56:18But yeah, once you have your starting lineup and the first in a seasonal league, not best ball.
56:23Once you have your starting lineup, then everybody on your bench, you need to be maxing out upside.
56:29Yeah. I don't want Chuba Hubbard on my bench.
56:31It's a hundred percent upside. Chuba Hubbard makes sense in a zero RB context because you know, he's going to be in the right team getting fed.
56:39That's an eat your vegetable zero RB type play.
56:42Otherwise, if you're now drafting bench players, my first bench player, I want it to be Jonathan Brooks because now I'm getting
56:48a potential mega talent on a team whose identity they're self-identifying as a run first grinded out team.
56:53That's what they want to be. That's what they are.
56:56They have the offensive line to do it. So just listen and believe it's that easy.
57:01On the other end of the spectrum, you have the lions where if the lions traded Jameson Williams straight up for Michael
57:07Wilson, we'd all be smashing Michael Wilson. It'd be automatic, right?
57:10Cause this is a team where there's going to be lots of throwing to go around.
57:15People don't love Sam Laporta, but it's a situation where it's like, listen, man, whether his back's fully healthy or not, I
57:22I'm doing, um, I have, I'm penciling it out.
57:24Right. And I'm thinking, okay, so this many pass attempts get did it.
57:28Okay. All right. So why am I not drafting Jared Goff?
57:31Yeah. Jared Goff. That was good. People forget about him.
57:34I don't like Jameson Williams. James, I would never, if I was running a team, you were the last players that I
57:41even consider is a guy like Jameson Williams, not a culture fit, not any kind of fit, but what does he do?
57:47He gets deep and he squeezes the football and he scores touchdowns and talk about an Alec Pierce level.
57:52Like, Hey, four catches for 120 yards and two touchdowns.
57:55Jameson Williams type of guy. Then go out and have like three wide receiver.
57:59One weeks. He finished his PPR wide receiver 12 last year in total points.
58:04He's he is a player on the other end of the spectrum where there's egg boca.
58:08Love him. Can't draft him. Jameson Williams. Hate him.
58:11Drafting him every time. Detroit. Detroit missed the playoffs.
58:13So everyone's like, ah, Detroit, terrible year. Whatever. Goff was fourth in the league in attempts.
58:18He had a 68% completion percentage. He threw the second most touchdowns in the league with 34.
58:23They just had no defense. There's what's the, what's the, what's the one area of that team.
58:28If you were trying to maximize fantasy points that you want to degrade, it's their secondary and it's our, it's happening.
58:34So yeah. I buy into the lions pass game.
58:37You can win your fantasy league with Jared Goff as your quarterback.
58:40And you could probably get them as a free agent.
58:43Like nobody in your leagues draft and Jared Goff.
58:46There's a reason why the wide receiver threes with the most upside are Isaac Tesla and Ryan Flournoy.
58:51There's a reason why it's the teams they're on.
58:54That's it. Now I'm not going to go as far as Andre Yoshivas.
58:57I can't go there because he doesn't have the explosiveness to even, no matter what happens, we've seen injuries to Bengals players.
59:04There's so many DFS grinders who want, who were overweight on Yoshivas because there was an injury to one of these Bengals
59:10receivers and he didn't deliver probably going to be like Mike Gusecki targets, whatever.
59:14It's not going to be him. Maybe even Colby young.
59:17It may, that's why I have a bunch of Colby young on taxi squads.
59:21Why do you think I've, I preach, I preach from mountaintops, rooftops, Brian, don't waste late round picks and rookie drafts on wide receivers.
59:28They never hit ever, ever, ever, ever, ever. But these running backs, they can certainly hit.
59:33They hit over and over and over. Even if they haven't hit yet, they very well could like a Sean Tucker.
59:39Whoever drafted Sean Tucker in the fourth round of their dynasty rookie drafts, pretty smart pick.
59:44Do you realize how many receivers they could have drafted and none of them did a goddamn thing in the league?
59:50But if there was one exception to be made, it would be like a wide open wide receiver three chair on a
59:56team that is a top five offense, right? So I, there, I have teams where I have Tesla.
60:02I have Flournoy and I have Colby young because that's where the, just follow the points.
60:06Just follow the past attempts. It doesn't have to be that hard.
60:10And now there's certainly teams where you could project.
60:12Maybe they get there with past attempts this year, for whatever reason, one team that could blow the top off their past
60:19attempt projection this year, probably the jets, the jets could potentially be the surprise Cardinals of past volume this year.
60:25And so for that reason, I also like Ed and I mentioned, the jets are a team who are going to surprise
60:31people with how good their defense is. The jets have legit players on their defense and that could allow them to play
60:37a little slower if they wanted to, but the jets have talent.
60:41The jets have real talent on offense. And if, if Gino could just be serviceable, he will be, this team can really go someplace.
60:48Brees hall, obviously a good player. I mentioned earlier in the show, there was a time, I don't know if it was
60:54last year, the year before, whatever the case may be.
60:57Brees hall and Garrett Wilson were both like first round picks in fantasy for this awful jets team.
61:02We're like, why? What's the point? But, uh, I like Garrett Wilson.
61:06I don't like him for the fact that he's never had a good quarterback.
61:10I like Brees hall. I don't like this coach speak that we're hearing about playing through, uh, two other running backs with him.
61:17And I don't think they will. You paid Brees hall.
61:20He's happy. Now I can't imagine. They're going to say, you know what?
61:23We want to give Isaiah Davis the ball, you know, on third down.
61:27I mean, but, but they got a bonehead coach.
61:30Who's not going to be there next year. Here's the problem.
61:33Here's the problem. They, it's so crazy. I can't believe we're here.
61:37It's been, it's almost like overnight. This happened. Suddenly the jets have like a wealth of riches.
61:42They have multiple great tight ends. It's crazy. I can't believe where we are.
61:46Like it's like Isaiah Davis is awesome. I, someone told me they're like, Hey, listen, just do yourself a favor.
61:51Go. Just don't spend a lot of time. You don't have to grind so much tape.
61:56Just watch an eight minute highlight clip of Isaiah Davis in a jets uniform.
62:00Don't go to college. Just look at what he's done in the league.
62:04And I'm like, okay, well, okay. Then you go Isaiah Davis.
62:07This, the metrics are good and he looks phenomenal every time he's out there.
62:11He looks great. Like I really like him. He's a great, I think he should be the, the running back to there,
62:18but is he going to get enough touches in and are they going to siphon touches away from Brees hall to where you have to draft him?
62:26And you go, Oh, Brees halls might locked in RB too.
62:29No, they're not going to know what I'm saying.
62:31It's just, it's just, especially when you look at dynasty rosters, you know, 25, 30, 35 players deep.
62:37And I'm like, how many jets do I have?
62:39This is crazy. Scott fishbowl. I just drafted. I was drafting at the turn.
62:43I, I, I, I went Gino Adnay Mitchell back to back.
62:47Gino is available for me in my Scott fishbowl.
62:49I'm coming up here in a minute. I haven't drafted a quarterback yet.
62:53I'm in the 13th round. Okay. So I had, I had a great fishbowl draft because the rest of my, the majority
62:59of the people that I'm drafting against were drafting quarterbacks.
63:02I didn't, there's no reason to draft one. Well, it's possible when you get to the end, but scoring wise.
63:08Okay. So what happened to me is I did not know what the scoring was that happened.
63:13That happens to me often. I did not fully appreciate it.
63:16It was weird. I was drafting at the turn and I was so excited to get Caleb Williams.
63:21I just pressed the button on Caleb Williams and then something in my head said, well, before I make another pick, I
63:28should look at the scoring because obviously you want Caleb Williams.
63:31And then I looked at the scoring and I was like, wait a second.
63:35I don't think I should have drafted Caleb Williams.
63:38Christ sake. You know? And then I'm like, oh man, what am I going to do?
63:42So then I'll show you my draft real quick.
63:45I'll just, we'll pull it up quickly. And you can see what you can see what I, so I'm over here, over
63:52here on the, on the far, on the far right at the one 12.
63:56Fortunately, the, my league mates kind of let me do what I would have done anyway.
64:00And I, so I didn't pay a price. I essentially paid no price for having Caleb Williams and Caleb Williams could have multiple 40 yard completions.
64:08Sure. And really deliver in the Scott fish bowl.
64:10If there's any quarterback that you would want other than Josh Allen, I would argue as Caleb Williams in this particular format.
64:17So I'm happy to have him kind of not really, uh, because I could have just drafted CD lamb and, and I'm on Ross St.
64:24Brown. And that would have been heaven or McBride and St.
64:27Brown would have been great. But in the round three round four, I was able to get pickings and a lava and
64:34then fan and pits and then Cardinal tape, Brian Thomas.
64:37So I was able to kind of do what I wanted to do throughout, which is just hammering best available wide receiver tight end.
64:44But you'll notice eventually it did make sense for me to get Jados man.
64:48Yeah. It might be me. You're going to hate this team that I drafted.
64:52So I started, I was at the one-on-one Jamar chase.
64:55Then I come back with your boy, Nico Collins, Chris, a lava, a Mika egg, Buka, lad McConkie, Parker Washington, your other
65:01favorite Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman, Ricky Pierce. All finally, I take someone that's not a receiver.
65:06I go Chig and TG, uh, TJ Hawkinson. Uh, cause I think it's, and then the best available at that point, if
65:12that I got JK Dobbins in the 12th, JK Dobbins and Jordan Mason in the 13th.
65:17Very smart. Very smart. Okay. Let's make it, let's, let's make at least one pick, maybe two.
65:22Uh, I think I want Devon Valle. Okay. Like we're going to get Devon Valle.
65:26He's the best available wide receiver. They traded multiple picks for him.
65:30I mean, it took him a while to try to learn this offense here.
65:34They should start to use them this year. Uh, he's another one.
65:37If, if there's two guys, I would ask everyone in my audience, go watch them.
65:42Watch a short, like six minute highlight clip because there's not a lot of touches, right?
65:46It's not a lot of targets, not a lot of touches.
65:50Didn't do anything for Isaiah Davis and Devon Valle.
65:52Watch those plays. Those guys specialize in just looking awesome on a football field.
65:56Valle does it. He's crazy, weird profile. The oldest breakout ever, but he makes spectacular catches.
66:01He looks like a matured version of Jordan Tyson out there, which is concerning for Jordan Tyson this year that he basically
66:07has an older, much older version of himself. Opposite Chris Olave.
66:11And they did, they made a pretty big investment in him and we'll see what happens.
66:15We'll see what happens this year in new Orleans.
66:18Jordan Tyson, another guy that I love that. I just can't bring myself to draft.
66:22So we went ahead and selected Devon Valle here.
66:25And then finally of these three tight ends, who would you go with?
66:29Jutavian Sanders, Justin Jolie, or Oscar Delp? Jesus. Jack Daniels.
66:32Is he available? I mean, any of these guys?
66:34That's the best available at tight end at this point.
66:37Yeah, we're late. I mean, we're in round 20.
66:40So there's really not a lot available. There's not a lot available.
66:43How I will say Jutavian Sanders. He's athletic. He's athletic.
66:46And there's not a lot of target competition there.
66:49And he is penciled in as the starter. I think I got to go Jutavian Sanders.
66:53Yeah. Of those three guys, I guess that's where I would go.
66:57They already took our guy Kolar. Kolar. Well, okay.
66:59So I got to get you out of here, but we did promise the audience.
67:04We would talk Kolar. Okay. There's been yet more news about Charlie Kolar.
67:08Beat reporters seem to love him. He does have an incredibly impressive athletic profile and stranger things have happened.
67:13Based on the metrics, I think he's Dawson Knox.
67:16I think he's the Dawson Knox to Gadsden's Kincaid longer term.
67:19That's my opinion of where Charlie Kolar is. But I'm in a lot of these super flex tight end mega premium leagues that are super deep.
67:27And he is literally the best available tight end.
67:29And I keep adding him and adding him and adding him and adding him.
67:33The problem that he has is people only see what he did in the NFL, which was primarily blocking.
67:39I know my co-host there, John Hanson, the guru, he loves Charlie and he thinks the world of him.
67:44The problem is, at least this year, you've got Gadsden.
67:47You've got Njoku blocking him in front of him.
67:50He's going to be a guy that like once every six weeks will make some play down the seam.
67:55But I think for the most part, this year, unusable for fantasy with the players they have on that offense.
68:01But does it mean down the road Njoku could be gone next year?
68:05Probably will be. Well, Njoku's looking at a likely groin strain or hamstring strain.
68:09That's probably in David Njoku's range of outcomes this year.
68:12Most definitely. Not a range of outcomes. That is an outcome that is almost definitive.
68:16That David Njoku is going to suffer some kind of lower body injury.
68:20The guy is just, he's too big and athletic.
68:23It's just over time, you turn 30. And he's just so muscular and so explosive that these things just start popping off the bone.
68:30I think that's what's happened with David Njoku. He's almost cursed.
68:33He was cursed by being too much of a specimen.
68:36And then when you turn 30, suddenly everything starts to get a little more rigid and a little more brittle.
68:42And then he goes puff. Guys like that go puff.
68:45Evan Ingram's doing the same thing. Yeah. Right. Evan Ingram's kind of going puff too, because it was, they turned 30 and suddenly they just can't.
68:52For some reason, these tight ends that are a little bit bigger and don't rely so much on like lower body explosiveness.
68:59Guys like Kelsey, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez. They could, it is possible for these tight ends to play out to age 35.
69:05And Njoku, Ingram, they have a, they have more of a move tight end profile and the explosive move tight ends do not age well.
69:12No, no, they don't. It's like the highest end inline tight ends age the best.
69:17And then the, the, the explosive move tight ends, you can go back through time.
69:21They age horribly. I don't disagree with you there, my friend.
69:24So it'd be interesting to see. I wouldn't mind stashing them on the backside of some benches, but this was fun.
69:30I appreciate this brother. I mean, come on here and chop it up with the pod father.
69:35First time, hopefully not the last. I can't believe this is the first time.
69:39Get us out of here. Bold prediction. Bold prediction.
69:42It's not that bold, but maybe it is. Christian McCaffrey finishes as the number one player in fantasy again.
69:48Again. I said to draft him at the one-on-one last year, people laughed and he finished.
69:52Oh, I don't know. As the number one player in fantasy.
69:56I think if he stays healthy, he's going to do it again this year.
70:00I love it. That's the least bold take in the history of this show.
70:04And I love it. Cousins doesn't have an arm.
70:06He looks good. Smells good. Smells good. Oh yeah.
70:09How can I let you? I don't. I hate Jimison Williams.
70:12You're going to hate this team that I drafted.
70:15You're going to hate this team that I drafted.
70:17You're going to hate this team that I drafted.