Mind of Mansion - Rich Hribar talks Anchor RB vs. Robust RB, Rookie WR Sleepers & Bold Predictions Driving THE BEST Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for 2026
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
2 hr 13 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 2, 2026
Published
Wed, September 2, 2026
34
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
Christian McCaffreyChristian WatsonJahmyr GibbsKenneth Walker IIIPuka NacuaBijan RobinsonBreece HallCam WardCarnell TateChase BrownCourtland SuttonD.J. MooreD'Andre SwiftDalton Kincaid
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveProjection58:06
Matt Kelley views Bijan Robinson as a solid, reliable pick that fantasy managers will not regret, though he notes a potential debate about moving him to the 1.03 spot in drafts.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeValue75:35
Matt Kelley classifies Breece Hall as an RB2 and believes he is less valuable than the wide receivers available in the same draft range.
Insight pageCam Ward
NegativeProjection68:05
Matt Kelley reports that there has been almost nothing positive about Cam Ward this offseason, noting that his preseason performance has not instilled confidence.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeValue67:53
Matt Kelley notes that Carnell Tate is plummeting in drafts and that there is little positive news regarding Cam Ward, but suggests Tate's archetype as a contested-catch receiver allows him to succeed even with poor quarterback play.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue32:48
Matt Kelley highlights Chase Brown as a preferred target over other RBs because he plays in a stronger team environment and catches passes, providing higher touchdown equity.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveValue50:31
Despite injury concerns, Christian McCaffrey remains a top-tier fantasy asset and the only player to record 2,000 yards and 100 catches in multiple seasons. Hribar argues that if McCaffrey's health were guaranteed for 17 games, he would be a lock for the 1.03 pick. While some analysts are 'damaged goods' regarding his injury history, the math in the PlayerProfiler draft kit consistently supports drafting him early due to his unmatched production floor.
Insight pagePositiveProjection58:15
Matt Kelley argues that Christian McCaffrey is durable despite injury concerns, noting he played three full seasons in the last four years and that the 49ers manage his workload carefully. Kelley believes McCaffrey's high median outcome makes him a must-draft.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout18:49
Christian Watson is a high-upside target who is expected to see a more concentrated target share in a Packers offense that will likely be forced to throw more due to a weak offensive line and defensive concerns.
Insight pagePositiveProjection20:29
Matt Kelley projects Christian Watson for 206 PPR points and ranks him ahead of other players in his classification.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeUsage74:37
Matt Kelley finds it difficult to be bullish on Courtland Sutton now that he is competing for targets with a true wide receiver one in Jalen Waddle.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveProjection20:29
Matt Kelley projects DJ Moore for 206 PPR points and ranks him ahead of other players in his classification.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue63:39
Matt Kelley expresses interest in DeAndre Swift, noting that he prefers betting on the situation for running backs rather than relying on talent to overcome poor circumstances.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveRole7:22
Dalton Kincaid is proactively working with a sports trainer to overcome early-career leg issues, showing a commitment to health ahead of a contract year where the Bills are expected to increase their passing volume.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeProjection38:32
Matt Kelley and Rich Hribar express significant uncertainty regarding De'Von Achane's projection due to his small frame (190 lbs) and historical splits without Tua Tagovailoa. While Achane has elite 'Jamal Charles-esque' talent and big-play upside, his target rate dropped to 7% in games without Tua, and his reliance on efficiency makes him a difficult player to project. Hribar notes that while he could be a league-winner, the margin for error at his current ADP is too thin, leading to a preference for more stable backfield situations like Kenneth Walker or Amari Hampton.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage63:19
Matt Kelley notes that Drake London has been incredible whenever Michael Penix Jr. has played, suggesting London's production will remain strong regardless of the Falcons' quarterback situation.
Insight pageEli Stowers
NegativeDepth Chart12:54
Eli Stowers is currently injured and has been relegated on the depth chart, likely due to a lack of necessary physicality and blocking ability required for the NFL level.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveBreakout47:03
Jahmyr Gibbs is positioned for a historic season, with Hribar calling his situation one of the best for a running back in fantasy history. With the Lions clearing out the backfield and Gibbs entering his age apex, he is projected as a potential 400-point PPR player. His explosive talent, combined with a favorable schedule and high-scoring offense, makes him a top-tier pick at the 1.01 spot.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout57:43
Matt Kelley identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as a player who can break fantasy football this year, citing his high median outcome and elite potential.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveProjection73:46
Matt Kelley is very bullish on Jalen Waddle, ranking him 36th overall and noting his elite efficiency metrics and versatility. Kelley believes Waddle has top-five wide receiver upside.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeValue19:16
Matt Kelley is below market on Jeremiah Love due to team situation and concerns about touchdown equity, projecting him for 4-8 touchdowns and volatile RB2 production despite a potential RB10 finish.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury5:28
Jordan Tyson is dealing with an injury that will likely cause him to miss half or more of the season; drafting him with the expectation of a best-case outcome in October is a mistake.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveBreakout12:15
With concerns surrounding Keenan Allen's headspace and potential decline, Josh Downs is positioned to potentially benefit and perform well for the Colts.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeProjection20:26
Josh Jacobs struggled with efficiency last year and is currently on the exempt list; there is a near-zero chance he plays in 2026.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection4:14
Justin Jefferson was one of only two top-12 wide receivers to play a full season last year, but he failed to provide significant fantasy value to managers.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeUsage10:36
Keenan Allen's recent off-field issues suggest his discipline and headspace are no longer at the peak levels required for elite production, signaling a potential decline.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage41:45
Kenneth Walker is viewed as a strong target due to improved team infrastructure and the release of Demarcata, which secures his role and prevents potential touch-sharing. Hribar expects Andy Reid to utilize the running back screen game more frequently this year, further boosting Walker's value. He is preferred over De'Von Achane in managed leagues because his path to double-digit touchdowns is more predictable and stable.
Insight pageNegativeValue60:11
Matt Kelley pushes back against the 'injury-prone' label for Kenneth Walker, explaining that being on the back half of the age apex does not inherently increase injury risk, especially for players with recent full-season durability.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeValue75:35
Matt Kelley views Kyren Williams as less valuable than the wide receivers in his target range, classifying him as an RB2 he prefers to avoid.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeValue25:23
While Marshawn Lloyd has a new opportunity, his lack of collegiate volume (never 130 touches in a season) and the high cost to acquire him make him a risky draft pick compared to available wide receivers.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeInjury60:37
Matt Kelley distinguishes Mike Evans from durable backs, noting that Evans has a history of chronic lower-body injuries that makes him a legitimate injury risk.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeProjection55:28
Puka Nacua is projected for high point totals in the PlayerProfiler rankings, often placing him alongside Christian McCaffrey as a top-four pick. While there is unquantifiable risk associated with his profile, the data-driven approach suggests he is a priority target in early rounds, even if some analysts are hesitant to draft him over more established veterans.
Insight pagePositiveProjection58:15
Matt Kelley includes Puka Nacua among his top-tier targets, prioritizing players with proven high-level production.
Insight pageTerrace Marshall
NegativeRole70:51
Matt Kelley has warmed up to Terrace Marshall Jr. due to the Panthers moving him into new positions, but remains hesitant to draft him heavily because he is attached to Bryce Young.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
PositiveBreakout23:33
Matt Kelley views Trevion Henderson as a high-upside difference-maker despite concerns about a timeshare with Ramondre Stevens. Kelley highlights Henderson's explosive 50-plus yard touchdown potential, comparing his rookie efficiency to Saquon Barkley and Chris Johnson.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:44Consult a healthcare professional if symptoms persist. This is All-American stud, Jonathan Taylor.
0:48I'm melting faces in NFL and you're listening to the best in the business.
0:52My man, the podfather. He knows things. This is the My Dimension Program.
0:56I'm here with Rich Rebar. We are going to do a riff-a-thon.
0:59Having him at this time of the year is a blessing.
1:03And we're going to throw a lot of takes at the wall.
1:06Rich is going to beat him back. Lots to talk about today on the My Dimension Program.
1:11Oh yeah. Ready? I am ready. Are you ready?
1:14I'm so ready. Born ready. So ready. I just don't want any more injuries between now and then.
1:19Please, for the love of God, no more injuries, no more suspensions.
1:22Please. No. And, you know, we had a little bit of people knew how the sausage was made, you know, you trying
1:29to get into the stream and, you know, the, you know, you know, it was like, you know, going on a date,
1:35you know, you're like, this never happens to me.
1:38You know, this never happens to me. My internet always works.
1:41Yeah. That happened to me today. I was trying to be, we were going to start half an hour ago, but my
1:47computer just didn't want to do the things on the internet that it's supposed to do.
1:52And then I hit the reset button and then it worked because that's my level of ability when it comes to, you know.
1:58Did you unplug it? Did you plug it back in?
2:01Yeah. You unplug it, you plug it back in.
2:04That's it. That's like, that's classic, like dad tech.
2:06That's it though. I'm not, I'm not any kind of sophisticated, no, no carpentry over here.
2:11No, no soldering of wires. Plug it in. Hope it works.
2:14Need it to work. Yeah. Like I said, you forget that you're at the mercy of just all of these things, just
2:21operating at the way where they're supposed to work.
2:23And you're like, oh, why did it do that thing?
2:26I was hoping it would do. So like running backs rafted early last year, they all kind of did what they were supposed to do.
2:33They stayed healthy mostly and didn't get hurt and didn't get suspended.
2:37And this year things are a little different. Yeah.
2:39Yeah. We were talking a little bit about it.
2:42Yeah. The last year running backs, man, they ran, they ran so pure in terms of health.
2:47I mean, eight of the top 12 running backs last year in ADP.
2:51So where they were drafted played full seasons, all 17 games.
2:54There were six top 24 wide receivers that played the full season.
2:57Only two were in the top 12. One was Justin Jefferson, who didn't even help you.
3:02And top 24 wide receivers combined to miss 85 games.
3:05I did some research in the two thousands. And that was by far the most, because I can only get ADP back from so far.
3:12The next closest season was 69. And these guys weren't top 24 guys.
3:16We already have three that are out for the year.
3:19You know, Jaden Higgins, Ricky Pearsall and Chris Brazel.
3:21So, you know, you say like, can receivers, you know, not run side and then Nick Buka is dealing with this turf toe.
3:28Jordan Tyson's probably going to miss half or more of the season.
3:31We can't even count on him at this point.
3:34I don't know what we can count on from Jordan Tyson at this point.
3:38The running backs have gotten dinged up, but by and large, like, you know, we're still on the trajectory where like these
3:44guys are going to be on the field as early as week one.
3:48And, you know, even if not, you know, very early in the season.
3:52I don't know why people are drafting Jordan Tyson when they're drafting him.
3:55I don't get it. I saw he was drafted on fast draft way too early.
4:00I keep seeing in home leagues he's being he's on underdog.
4:03You name it. You name the platform. They're drafting Jordan Tyson like he's going to be back in 100 percent and ready
4:09to go and hitting his best case outcome in October.
4:12And I just I have I just I have some news for those people.
4:16It's not going to happen. It's rough. I was telling you he's got to get with the same people that worked on,
4:23you know, the institute that worked with Christian Watson and Marshawn Lloyd went to he's got he's got to find the sports
4:29science behind this because this is this is four years in a row.
4:33Like the guy is going to miss, you know, games of on the football field.
4:37So, again, you're injury prone to you're not and you're not injury prone until, you know, an injury happens.
4:42But, you know, we've seen this, too, like you were going to bring up Dalton Kincaid, I know, at one point on
4:49the show and we saw him, you know, get with a sports trainer named Derek Samuel, who's in San Diego.
4:55And he worked with Keenan Allen and Zach Ertz, who had early career leg problems.
4:59And he got with him this summer in an effort to kind of overcome just some of these demons, because, you know,
5:05a lot of these guys, you know, probably like it's frustrating.
5:08It's got to be frustrating, right? Like when this is your livelihood and you're like your body is just not responding the way you want it to.
5:16And you're coming up for a contract here and you're looking to have a big year with Josh Allen in a year
5:23where we're expecting the bills to throw more. We're trying to get paid.
5:26So I appreciate him taking all those measures. But athletes do some crazy stuff, man.
5:31And but you like to see them be proactive about it.
5:34Jordan Tyson's got to make that next step, man.
5:36We've got to get him with the right people.
5:39He is a jump ball specialist, a make you miss specialist.
5:42He's very flashy, right? He's he was he got drafted in the top 10 because these scouts went to their into his
5:49pro day and they saw him acting like an acrobat on the football field.
5:53Right. He can juke guys out at the line of scrimmage.
5:56He can go up and snatch the ball that he's very good at that.
6:00Right. He has not shown that he has the full route tree and that he is more of a traditional like Justin Jefferson level wide receiver one.
6:08Right. So if there was a player knowing that about him and the fact that he has this inherent difficulty in staying healthy, especially the hamstring area.
6:15I mean, that was a problem for Keenan Allen.
6:18That was a problem. And those are the guys you talked about have went to go see a particular trainer to figure
6:24out, OK, what kind of nutrition do I need?
6:27What kind of hydration do I need stretching? So I'm sure there's this whole strength stretching hydration program that they have to
6:33stay very vigilant and they have to be disciplined.
6:36Now, clearly, Keenan Allen's no longer with the program.
6:38Right. The discipline has fallen off. If you're hammered in a parked car, you're you're no longer like following your the the
6:45protocols of your sports athlete specialist that you've hired.
6:47I think you've pretty much said I'm mailing it in for the rest of my career.
6:52Someone wants to sign me. I'll go play some football.
6:55We'll go see what happens. But that's the signal I get from Keenan Allen.
6:59It kind of makes me think even when he's back, if he's suspended, if he's not suspended, when he's playing for the
7:05for the Colts, if you see something like that happen off the field, just know that that player's headspace is not where
7:12it was when he was at the peak of his powers.
7:15That's what we know. So whether he's fully dust, almost dust, sort of dust all the way dust, it's still a signal
7:21that maybe Josh Downs is going to be just fine.
7:24Right. But when it comes to Jordan Tyson, there's going to be a laundry list of busts this year.
7:30And Jordan Tyson is the one that's already flashing the most.
7:33I mean, you can't count Jaden Higgins. Those guys are not going to play this year.
7:37They're out for the year. But there was already a fragility with the Jordan Tyson projection this year.
7:42No doubt what his role was going to be.
7:45What kind of NFL wide receiver would he be?
7:48Because you can't play that the way he played.
7:50Just play above the defense. It's play like it's basketball in the NFL.
7:54Same thing could be said for a guy like Eli Stowers.
7:57Like Eli Stowers was playing college football, like basketball.
8:00And then you come to the NFL and you're like, oh, no, there's a level of physicality that I need to get to to be successful.
8:07And that's why a lot of these rookies, they don't fire.
8:10So a guy like Sadiq, he started in the year hurt already.
8:14Stowers is not only hurt, but he's been banished on the depth chart because my guess is you can't block anybody.
8:20And Jordan Tyson, when he comes back, he's not going to be this full-time starter.
8:24And he's going to be very volatile. You'll never know when to start him.
8:28So why even? Why even bother with a lot of these guys?
8:32Those are the fringe. I mean, I can see drafting an injured player if I can cut him right away and no harm, no foul.
8:39But as soon as you start getting into key positions that are starters on my fantasy team, I feel crazy, dude.
8:45I feel crazy that I just would rather not willingly draft an injured player who's iffy for week one.
8:51Why is that so crazy? Now, injury optimism has been a hill that all of us have died on.
8:56We all have read on our ledgers, if you've played fantasy football, you've talked yourself into the upside outcome for a player that's already injured.
9:03And we've probably have died on that hill. Scott Pianowski always brings up the phrase, injuries are going to find you in season.
9:10It's NFL football. So why take on guys that are already hurt?
9:13Those things are going to happen. You're going to have your own busts.
9:17We're going to get picks wrong. One thing I always talk about this time of year, too, with subscribers is because they
9:23always come into the chat and grade my team.
9:26Or I'm really fretting over this pick or this intersection of picks.
9:30And I get it, but I always remind people, if you get to week 17 in a managed league with half your roster intact, you accomplish something.
9:37There's going to be so many things that go wrong over the course of the season that you don't have to try to be perfect.
9:45But also, you know, flip that around, like you don't also need to start taking out a bunch of risk either because
9:51all these things are going to happen to you over the course of the NFL season and your regular season.
9:57So, you know, there's just so a number of guys that you kind of you.
10:01We talked about some of the fringe guys, but there are a number of guys even going in like hot pockets like, you know, a mechic bucca.
10:09Like the Tampa Bay basically is ever done every said everything except for he has turf toe where we all kind of
10:15like, yeah, that dude's got turf toe, but you're not telling us that.
10:19But like a bucca goes around like eight to ten wide receivers that like are fun and you sell yourself up on the upside angle.
10:26And it's like, how can you justify already taking the guy that's hurt?
10:30Like, yes, you could have that run out, but I jail and waddles healthy.
10:34Lad McConkie is healthy right now. You know, Ted McMillan's healthy right now.
10:38T Higgins is healthy. Garrett Wilson's healthy. Even Christian Watson's healthy right now.
10:41There's all these guys. Dude, Christian Watson, man. This message is brought to you by Apple Card.
10:46With Apple Card, you earn unlimited daily cash back on everyday purchases like groceries, merch or tickets to the game.
10:52Plus, it can be used anywhere MasterCard is accepted.
10:55No matter your team, no matter where you shop, Apple Card is here to help you tackle game day.
11:00Apply in the wallet app on your iPhone today.
11:03Subject to credit approval. Apple Card is issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch.
11:08Terms and more at AppleCard.com. Low energy, unfocused, foggy.
11:10You might be dehydrated. Gatorade Zero Powders have been scientifically designed to help improve hydration balance in the body.
11:16With a clinically proven electrolyte blend and no artificial colors or flavors.
11:19Great tasting hydration no matter where you're going. Shop now online or at retailers nationwide.
11:24Gatorade hydrates better than water. Is it in you?
11:26Symptoms noted are signs of mild to moderate dehydration.
11:29Consult a healthcare professional if symptoms persist. If there's a consistent guy that smart people I have on this show love, it's Christian Watson.
11:36And I'm part of that. Hopefully you guys consider me smart too, but I also like Christian Watson.
11:41Oh, hell yeah, dude. Of course. Yeah, you're like the smartest.
11:44And so the fact that you love Christian, I mean, it's smash city with Christian Watson.
11:49Yeah, I mean, this is a guy just anytime he's played football, again, he fits that corollary of like, you're injury prone until you're not.
11:56So like that's what's keeping him depressed in that pocket of guys.
11:59He usually goes at the end of like all those guys that we talked about.
12:04And, you know, tack on, you know, some other guys that go in that range like Luther Burden and, you know, DJ Moore.
12:10That whole like end of the wide receiver two range.
12:13But because he's gamers have done the Christian Watson dance before, they're like, I'm not doing that again.
12:18But, you know, if he plays, if he plays through the whole season, like he's going to absolutely smash.
12:24I mean, this Packers setup is phenomenal this year.
12:26I mean, I was buying it even before, like this past week when we finally got the official news that Jacobs would start in the exempt list.
12:34But the Packers have one of their weakest offensive lines that they've had in the LaFleur era.
12:39We already had Jacobs, you know, kind of struggle from an efficiency stance last year.
12:43He got the touchdown equity that was floating him.
12:46But they weren't a good running team last year because of the offensive line.
12:50The defense is already, we don't know when Micah Parsons is going to look like Micah Parsons.
12:55If he does, he's another player that's entering the year.
12:58So the defense could be worse. And you lose Romeo Dobbs and you lose Dontavian Wicks.
13:02And you're going to have this tighter rotation of wide receivers.
13:06And just like everything is like pointing to like, yes, this is going to be a pass game like we want to concentrate on.
13:13They're going to be forced to throw more probably.
13:15And it's going to be more concentrated. So, yeah, it's just and he's the one guy out of the profile that isn't
13:22going to come off the field in one to two wide receiver sets.
13:25And again, you know, barring injury. And he had access to a part of the target tree that like he had yet to have access to.
13:33Right. Last year, he was running more hitches, running more outs.
13:36And Christian Watson's always in one of these guys.
13:39You can give him more free squares on top of him, you know, running the post routes and the nine routes.
13:45That's going to make a player that already had a really high ceiling, but a volatile floor into having a higher floor
13:51and making him more of a stable fantasy producer.
13:54Offensive line ranking 30 on player profilers, offensive line rankings.
13:56I just went to the whole offensive line rankings.
13:59It's for subscribers. But if you subscribe to us on Facebook or YouTube, we are live right now on player profiler now.
14:05Then you just got the full rankings. That's from Dan Fornick.
14:09He is one of the best in the business.
14:11And he has Green Bay at number 30. Tennessee and Cleveland are behind them.
14:15Rich. Yeah. I mean, it's not good. You know, Zach Tom or Zach Bacobuele changed his name.
14:20I got to get that. Got to get used to that.
14:23He's by far their best lineman. He's coming off a significant injury.
14:27The rest of the guys are all a lot of guesswork doing Jordan Morgan's, you know, moving over to left tackle.
14:33You know, Aaron Banks has been like a very up and down producer at left guard.
14:37Sean Ryan and Anthony Belton have been underperformers to this point in their careers.
14:41It's interesting because the Packers went through like this philosophy.
14:44They were kind of like coaching all their guys in the offensive line to play like every position so they can kind of like interswap them.
14:52But it's kind of actually stunted a lot of the growth of their young offensive linemen like Belton and Jordan Morgan and
14:58Sean Ryan because they haven't been able to play one position to this point in their career.
15:03So they didn't really get to learn and develop.
15:06They kind of been just playing a little bit here, a little bit there.
15:10And they're kind of throwing these guys to the Wolves this year.
15:13They have no choice. But, yeah, it's real rough, the offensive line.
15:17And that's what makes it kind of troubling, you know, even to go in on the big bump for Marshawn Lloyd now
15:23that he's got this new opportunity in front of him.
15:26Or, you know, the Caleb Johnson drawing just like a fresh of breath air where he looked dead in Dynasty.
15:32But at least it gives him a breath of fresh air because, you know, he is going to a scheme at least
15:38that was conducive to what acquiesced like the best of his rushing stocks.
15:42You at Caleb Johnson as a prospect, you see his size and physicality and you're like, oh, this dude is a thumper, right?
15:48And that is not his game at all. Like he wants to pick and prod holes, get a tarmac.
15:54He needs a free lane to go. He goes down on first contact a lot for a big player but wants to, you know, outside zone runs.
16:02This does give him at least a breath of fresh air because it is a scheme, you know, the Shanahan coaching scheme.
16:08Like if you're going to be like throw linemen at the wall and running backs at the wall, it would be this
16:14scheme at least to where you would say, all right, something could still come out of here.
16:19But I'm probably letting another gamer deal with it.
16:22You know, we still don't even know like if Josh Jacobs will play.
16:26I'd bet against it at this point in 2026.
16:28But, you know, we don't know. Like it's not a non-zero chance that he could still play.
16:33But I would put it pretty close to zero.
16:36But that's what makes it tough going in even on Marshawn Lloyd with the bump, right?
16:40Like some of these guys were values this point into the entire offseason in this final week.
16:45Like you've got to pay the iron price for these guys.
16:48And do I want to pay the iron price for a guy like Marshawn Lloyd?
16:53I liked him as a prospect, but he's never had 130 touches in a season since high school.
16:58And he's going probably in a bucket of, yeah, as a running back position, guys like Basial 2-in and Jerry and Price
17:04who also take a step of faith. But the wide receivers in that area are awesome.
17:09It's all the guys that we talked about back then.
17:12Like you want me to take Marshawn Lloyd over Jamison Williams?
17:15Good luck. Good luck. No. Who has him right to head at Jamison Williams?
17:19I'm just saying like his ADP is going to fall in like that hotbed where it's going in that like wide receiver 20 to 30 range.
17:26And like I'm just not taking wide receivers or running backs in that range regardless.
17:31The two ends of the world, even the guys you can sell yourself a song on.
17:35It is a fun, interesting, similar tier where you have Marshawn Lloyd, a speculative fun player.
17:40Judarian Price, a speculative fun player. Basial Tootin, a speculative fun player.
17:43We're not sure how good any of these guys are at say pass blocking.
17:48A lot of the core things that... Well, none of them are good at pass blocking.
17:52I feel pretty confident about that. I've heard that there's improvements and I haven't seen them yet is my point.
17:58Yeah. And ball security. So there's a lot of things that we don't know about these players because they just haven't had the reps.
18:05Marshawn Lloyd not having the reps because he's been on IR.
18:08Janarian Price because he was behind a generational talent in college.
18:11And so we just don't know. They're fun players that you can speculate on.
18:15But if I can get Parker Washington, if I can get Jameson Williams, if I can get either of these Bears receivers,
18:22that's too early to be talking about... Yep. We talk about Christian Watson, like same bucket.
18:26I mean, Christian Watson, even DJ Moore. I mean, no, I'm not doing it.
18:30Once we get past that pocket, that critical tier of wide receiver where you know this is a wide receiver one likely
18:37on a good team who has had wide receiver one top 12 seasons in the past.
18:41Once we get past that swath of guys, they're either great players or in great situations or both.
18:46Then we can start talking about the running backs.
18:49That's how I feel. That's why I want to get my running backs before I have to deal with that.
18:55That's another reason why I'm drafting a Scadaboo. I'm drafting a Chase Brown.
18:59That's the other reason why I want Barkley. So I'm not in a position where I'm like, well, Tootin's a value here.
19:05No, man. No. Yeah, 100%. I mean, we've seen that in the 11th hour of drafts, as we've really seen how the
19:11final test is being taken, there be kind of an arms race to the top 12 running backs.
19:16And then kind of an immediate lull. And I know the top of the RB2s took a hit with Brees Hall and Jeremiah Love.
19:23Maybe too much of a hit. But I was a little bit below market on all those guys to begin with because of their team situations and stuff.
19:31But we've seen now other gamers. It's basically like get to the top 12 running backs.
19:36Start taking receivers. You get a couple guys peppered in.
19:39The tight ends get peppered in. The front of the range.
19:42And then teams are circling back to running back.
19:45But it's really when you look at each intersection of the draft, you start to see like the first two picks are
19:51usually going with some type of like anchor running back build.
19:54The next two picks, which is usually Chase Nakua, are going with some kind of wide receiver heavy build because the wide
20:01receivers are stronger than the running backs when you come back up.
20:04And then like if you pick in the back half of the first round, you get a lot more RB RB starts.
20:10And that's kind of really how like a lot of drafts have are being just played out in the 11th hour.
20:16Unless you got some goofy. You're in super flex or you got some goofy settings.
20:21But that's really kind of what we've seen shape out here as we approach, you know, the start of September.
20:27Basial Tootin we have projected in PPR leagues for 174 points.
20:30Watson and Moore both 206. So you can take a shot on Tootin there.
20:34Absolutely. I think it's close. But certainly once you get past Tootin, I think Tootin would be the one guy where it's the right team.
20:41It's a great situation. The setup is great. LaQuint Allen's been out.
20:44So he could actually get a lot of receiving work.
20:47I think that because LaQuint Allen is out and in a seasonal managed league.
20:51I mean, those are dead snaps anyway. Samir Abdullah is going to take those at the start of the season.
20:57And they were just they were hollow reps anyways.
21:00Yeah, those are a third and long type of reps where it's not going to go to the running back anyway.
21:06That's what you mean. Or their blitz pickup and pass protection.
21:09So Tootin is going to be getting the designed throws to the running back position.
21:13Those are going to go to him. He has the explosive run potential.
21:17So we're not out on Tootin. We just don't have him in the top 50.
21:21I'd like to think that we are very balanced for where we have Tootin.
21:25But all those receivers we talked about, Christian Watson, DJ Moore, we have them ahead of all the other guys that are in that classification.
21:33Another player in that tier would have to be Trevion Henderson.
21:36Yeah, 100%. And he's like at least the one guy when you look at it on the surface.
21:41You're like, apparently he had the worst 1,100-yard 10-touchdown rookie season that has ever occurred.
21:45Because, yeah, you know, people just don't want to take him.
21:48And I know that if we play this season out and you do 10 versions of this season, yeah, there's probably seven
21:55of those where the Patriots just do deploy this timeshare backfield.
21:58Right? Like they play both these guys. Because Romero Stevens is not a bad player either.
22:03But man, the years where Trevion Henderson hits, like they're difference-making for fantasy seasons.
22:07We saw it last year. I mean, this guy had four touchdown runs at 50-plus yards.
22:11The last rookie to do that was Saquon Barkley.
22:14He had two games where he had multiple 50-yard touchdown runs.
22:17The last player to do that in a season was Chris Johnson.
22:20You know, bummer what's going on with Chris Johnson right now.
22:24But was just an electric player. And everyone's kind of like, you can't draft him.
22:28Like, you know, it's like, why can't I draft Trevion Henderson?
22:31He's got a shitload of upside if he hits the years he makes it.
22:35He's a huge difference maker. I get the ADP was a little high.
22:39But when we were drafting Jameer Gibbs as the RB6 overall in year two, who had basically an adjacent season to Trevion Henderson.
22:46And you're getting Trevion now like the RB27. Ramondre, for as good as he was still, and was a little bit of
22:52a value last year, like there still was no like spikes for fantasy.
22:56Like at the end of the year, he had, you know, the one strong use of the week against Miami.
23:01But it's not like he was like this haymaker.
23:04Like he feels like a very hit small pick still, even if you get right.
23:08So yeah, I get it. Like if we play this season out, like Ramondre probably thwarts Trevion from having a good year more than not.
23:16But the years that one of these guys does hit, the guy that hits big is the profile of a Trevion Henderson.
23:22So yeah, he would be the one guy like from that group that I would say like, yeah, if he's going to
23:28dip below ADP, like he has this at the, as we approach these last drafts, he's a guy is still keeping like my ear on.
23:35Cause like, I'm definitely taking Trevion Henderson. If we get past that tier wide receivers and you want me to take Marvin Harrison, Jr.
23:42Trevion Henderson. Oh no, come on. Not happening, brother.
23:45Overtraignment not happening. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
23:48There's that's certainly a tear break there. That's the pocket.
23:51If you're stuck in that pocket and those receivers are gone, then Henderson has the most upside.
23:56Judkins probably has the highest floor just based on touch volume.
23:59He's the main guy, but we just talked about their offensive lines worse than the league.
24:03They're not going to score any points. Judkins. I don't know.
24:07It's so strange. It's like you have a guy that's basically going almost inside the top 50 and you can't find anyone excited about him.
24:14And you can't make any kind of case for upside league winning potential.
24:18It doesn't exist in the context of that offense.
24:20No, I have a real problem drafting players on bad teams in the top 50.
24:25The, a lot of my teams, the better they are, the fewer of those players they have on.
24:30It's like, what happens? And even though there's a great case, there's a great bulls case out there for Ted McMillan and
24:36a lot of these players on bad teams. And with Judkins, it's strictly a floor play.
24:41Yep. And I don't think I need that. I don't think I need the floor play at that kind of premium capital.
24:47No, I mean, running backs in general, top three scorers, uh, since 1990 guys that have finished first, second or third, like true difference makers at the position.
24:55Those they played for teams that averaged 9.9 wins per season, just 17 backs since 1990 of that group.
25:01That's 16.7% played for teams that won fewer than eight games.
25:04Uh, top six scores since 1990 average wins 9.6.
25:06Uh, we extended just top 12 scores only 18.8%.
25:09Uh, so one fifth, if we want to round up played for teams that won six or fewer games.
25:14So it's just really kind of hard to get a ceiling player out of that.
25:19And, and, and this is caveats, right? Like this is the one thing I've talked about this for years and railed on
25:25this, but we always, this time of year look at like end to season finishes.
25:29Cause if you look back at last year, people are like, well, Ash and Jainty was an RB one.
25:35Ask any gamer that had Ash and Jainty on their roster.
25:38If they felt they were setting their lineup with an RB one and their lineup, a weekly RB one.
25:44No, he just didn't get hurt and stacked a bunch of like, okay, like usable, like floor weeks.
25:49And that's how he got to be a bottom end RB one.
25:52And getting the RB 11, like, what does that even mean?
25:55Like, what does that mean? Like, that's the one thing we don't do as fantasy gamers at all.
26:01Right? Like they're like, Oh, we sell this thing is like this.
26:04Oh, that was like, it's like this big badge of honor.
26:07This guy was the RB 11 who gives a shit.
26:10What did tell me what it means? What did it mean that I had the RB 11 on my team?
26:16Cause I know what it meant to have Ash and Jainty on my team last year.
26:21And it meant that I had a dude. I had a dude on my roster because there was one week and it
26:27was the week against the Houston Texans that he won me.
26:30He won me a week. I guess there was a bit of the bears game too, but that was it.
26:36That was it, man. That was, that was really it.
26:39I want guys that like want that. I want guys in my roster.
26:42Like you said, in the top 50, the first four rounds that can outright have a week where they win me the week.
26:49And these types of running backs, it's just very hard to make that case.
26:53Right? Like you talk about a Judkins, like where's the case where like Judkins is winning you outright, winning you a week,
26:59uh, on its own or multiple weeks. Cause like you, people be like, well, there was the Miami game last year.
27:06Uh, but like, they're just, there's, they're very like, you might get one instance a year out of those guys.
27:11I want guys that could do it for five times, six times, seven times, right?
27:16Like path, path to like elite production. And yeah, I think that guys like JT, Devin, H and Judkins, I think that those guys are fine.
27:23And, but I see those guys as, as hit small picks at ADP.
27:27And where even if they, you're like, well, this guy beat his ADP, therefore he was a value, right?
27:32Like, no, no, I don't think that's the case at all.
27:36If we go back to the offensive line rankings, from Dan Fornick on player profile.com, we're gonna be updating those every week this year in season.
27:43That's why you want to get the player ranking subscription.
27:46If we go back to that, man, it's not like the Raiders have a great offensive line.
27:51It's like things have changed so much, right? That, Oh, now, uh, they're 24.
27:55I think I have them better than that. I mean, one default to remember that, uh, Pete Carroll's son's also not coaching the offensive line this year.
28:03We talk about that all the time. The shadow meetings they had to have to, to, to, to play Kate Pete Carroll
28:09and his son, but they get Colton Miller back who didn't play a snap after week four.
28:14They get Jackson powers, Johnson back who also missed eight games.
28:17Then you add Tyler Linderbaum. And then Rick Dennison was hired.
28:20Who's literally coached 30 years in the NFL. So I do think that their offensive line is one of the pros.
28:26The problem though, on top of this is the Raiders.
28:29Um, they have our 31st ranked rushing schedule. We were going to probably see a quarterback change to a rookie quarterback at some point.
28:36And, uh, they're favored in three games this year, right now going into the year, their favorite in three games.
28:42They have an absolutely winnable game in week one against the dolphins, which we might not even get to use Ashton JTN mind you.
28:49Correct. Yeah. That's the, that's the game you wanted.
28:51And then they just get slaughtered. They go right after this dolphins game, chargers, chiefs, Patriots, bills, Rams through week seven, uh,
28:58uh, before their week end of the season by, you know, it's 49ers Seahawks Broncos.
29:02The playoff schedule actually looks favorable, but we might have Mendoza on the field and you might not be in the playoffs with Ashton JTN roster.
29:10So it's just real, it's just a real rough layout and a tough draw for the Raiders in general.
29:15I do think the offensive lines would be better, but there's all these pulling factors.
29:19I know people will point to the Kubiak factor too, as just being a pro and I do agree it is, but
29:26you're still taking a guy with really premier capital.
29:28He's at least dipped a full round with this ankle injury.
29:32Uh, cause people were taking him like aggressively, like mid first, I would see him frequently in high stakes league be, uh,
29:38the RB three, uh, off the board. So they're telling some kind of story about the offensive line has been completely rebuilt.
29:44It takes time. One of the things I talk to Dan about this is offensive lines don't revolutionize themselves in one year.
29:51It takes time. Certainly Linderbaum, certainly better coaching. These are big improvements, better health.
29:55We haven't heard. It's also a weak. It's also a weak link position.
29:58You can have like an absolute, like thinking of the, like the, like Joe Thomas, you can have a hall of famer,
30:05but if the other four guys, we have two guys that aren't, if you just have a side, that's bad, man, you're,
30:11it could, it could ruin the whole infrastructure. Like you, it's, it's a weak link position.
30:16And going from like offensive line 32 to 24 is a big improvement, right?
30:20You're now at, in the bottom of the middle, as opposed to being the bottom of the bottom.
30:25So congratulations to the Raiders for that. And the middle is largely nebulous anyways, right?
30:29Like I said, you can have an injury or just like a guy play better.
30:34The, like they're like, there's very much like a big tier in the middle of like, there's like elite offensive lines and there's truly bottom wrong offensive lines.
30:42And then there's just like a pocket of just, like I said, a real nebulous group.
30:46And I've just, you know, I, I see where our rankings divert from the consensus.
30:51So if you look here, the consensus on underdog has Ashton Gentry at 16.1.
30:55These are recent picks, you know, the last, yeah, yeah.
30:57He's fallen like almost like a full round couple of weeks.
31:01So he was going late first. Now he's going mid second.
31:04Essentially. We have him at 22, six spots behind consensus, six spots behind consensus inside the top 25 is a, major shift
31:10away from where people are drafting that player. It essentially means you'll never get genti if you use our rankings for best ball.
31:17And I'm okay with that. I am very okay with that.
31:20He is of all the running backs. He and Jeremiah love are, are ones that we are several picks behind consensus where you'll probably not get them.
31:28And what do they have in common? Think about what those guys have in common.
31:32They're hurt to start the season on bad teams.
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32:20Consult a healthcare professional. If symptoms persist. So I'm just not sorry.
32:23It, it, sometimes it's just that simple. I mean, it is, it is that simple.
32:28And then, you know, like I said, I, I ran down all those stats with the running backs.
32:33So I had all those guys in a separate tier in my tears, which is, you know, below some guys that just
32:39have cleaner paths to giving you that difference making season.
32:42They might not be as good as players, right.
32:45Of some of those guys like chase Brown is a great example.
32:48Like he's definitely, I don't think from a talent perspective, as good as the players we just talked about, but the infrastructure
32:55of his team environment is so much stronger. And he catches passes.
32:58They, the Cincinnati Bengals are second in the amount of games favored right now entering the year, which is pretty wild.
33:04Like I think it's like kind of like a, something that's flown under the radar a little bit.
33:09They've upgraded their defense. Yeah. Oh yeah, absolutely. The past are still a concern, but like the past defense was good.
33:15And then now the run, the run defense was there undoing last year.
33:19Hopefully it's stronger, but just being in a better team environment gives this player an access to, you know, have, you know, a higher touchdown equity, right?
33:27Like that's my biggest hangup probably with a guy like Jeremiah love, right.
33:31Is, you know, it looks a lot like the rookie year B.
33:34John Robbins and season where like he, I can see him having good combo yardage, like a 1200 yard season, but he's
33:41probably going to have like four to eight total touchdowns.
33:43Right. And it's probably more of a guy that we look back and says, he'll be the guy we look at where
33:50Jeremiah love and like, well, he was RB 10.
33:52He was an RB one, but really on a weekly basis was giving you like volatile RB two production.
33:58Right. And he could have helped you in the playoffs.
34:01It's certainly, he could have a spike week in the playoffs and people can, can, can zero in on his, you know,
34:07these articles write themselves, rich first half versus second half splits for Jeremiah love in 2026.
34:12How many articles like that? We're going to read.
34:14Yeah. I think he's going to be a low advance rate player, but if you get into the finals with him, you
34:21have a shot for a higher upside. That's when things love.
34:24Although we might just have Carson back playing and you know, who knows what that, that's the thing, man.
34:29I tried to sell, I could sell myself more with Malik neighbors in best ball.
34:34That's why you saw it. Malik neighbors was on that ranking and Malik neighbors.
34:38We were close to consensus on Malik neighbors. Not quite because he started the year injured, but we were close because this
34:44is a guy that if you can get him, if you can get him through, he's going to be at a hundred percent.
34:51He's going to be at a 30% target share by the time we get to December.
34:55And then it's on, it's going to be on in December with him.
34:59It could be on in December with Ashton Gentry.
35:02So these guys can't, they can't fall as far in best ball.
35:05If you think that they have a chance in December to, to, to win you all the money.
35:10My problem with Jeremiah love is that case is not that easy because it's the Cardinals and late in the season.
35:16What's their schedule look like? I mean, I don't even have it in front of me and I'm terrified of it.
35:22It gets better. They're that's the only part of it.
35:25It's there, but they get absolutely shadow realm to, you know, to, to open the year.
35:30That's been like the hardest thing with a guy like Jeremiah love is you're just looking at, cause you, the NFL, like,
35:36you know who you're going to play, but you don't know the order and when you're going to play them.
35:42And Arizona, when that schedule release came out, I mean, so they opened the year, like this is, they have a week
35:4814 by like a late by, which is probably why we see even Carson Beck finished that last month.
35:54If he's not in sooner. But before that chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, giants, lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, chiefs, commanders, Eagles.
36:00That's like nine games against teams that are probably going to compete for the Superbowl, uh, like entering the year.
36:06Like it's just absolutely, they got absolutely dragged. Uh, they're, um, their only team not favored at any game entering the season.
36:12Uh, they're projected to score the fewest points by Vegas, uh, current lines that are out for the games.
36:17Not even like, like these are projected points based on the actual lines that exist right now.
36:22Not like some, some, some patchwork stuff. Like this is if you were to bet the games, that's what they're projected to score the fewer points.
36:30And that's the, you know, the, the same thing for the Miami dolphins, right?
36:34Like the Miami dolphins are in the same boat.
36:37They're 31st. The average Miami dolphins spread is minus 6.9 points against them.
36:40It's like, they're literally a touchdown underdog for basically the entire season.
36:44And people will look at this Devon H and think like, well, he was good last year on a bad team.
36:50Hell he wasn't the 2025 dolphins won seven games.
36:52They led for more snaps than the Detroit lions.
36:55They were one spot behind the Buffalo bills and snaps led.
36:58They were seventh in the NFL and rate of snaps leading by double digits last year.
37:03They were 14th and rate of snaps trailing last year ahead of the lions and bills.
37:07Like the 2026 dolphins are not comparable to the 2025 dolphins.
37:11Like you don't pick up seven guys on waivers after the first day of cuts.
37:15And you try to tell me like he was on this bad of a team.
37:19Hell, he wasn't this, this team is projected. They're paying, they have $200 million that they're paying the players that aren't on their team this year.
37:27Like this is, these are not the 2026 and 25 dolphins are not comparable situations.
37:31Why are you drafting a lot of dolphins? But at the end of the day, the one guy that could get there,
37:37because we've seen this before, there are running backs that just completely ball out on bad teams.
37:42Christian McCaffrey did it with the Panthers. It's been done many times.
37:46Yeah. If there was a setup for a bad team to have a great fantasy player, it would be Devon HN this year.
37:52Yeah. I get the sell, but like the, the, the margin is too small.
37:56Like that's, that's the thing. Like I get the sell.
37:59Like if there, this is, this would be like the better.
38:02So it's like different, like, so like take like Devon Stribbling, for example, like he's like a, in a super low hit
38:09rate of prospects, but like he's not expensive and he's, he's got the, the setup for him or play caller.
38:15And all of his competitive targets are all guys on the back end of the age spectrum.
38:20They have a history of injuries. Devon HN, you're still taking the second round.
38:24You're still taking the second round. Like the, like I, this is just too tight of a margin.
38:29It's too tight of a margin for me. Want to cut.
38:32He in best ball is going behind a Marion Hampton.
38:35You agree with that? Yeah, because a Marion Hampton, again, a player I don't think is as good as Devon HN.
38:41I can tell myself a pretty sound story. How a Marion Hampton scores 12 to 15 touchdowns, right?
38:46It's a lot harder for me to get there with HN.
38:49I can see the path where like in PPR, he just catches a bunch of passes still.
38:54Even, even though like, I think that there's going to be some, you know, some pull down.
38:59The other thing with HN though, that I don't get is we've seen this though.
39:03We've already seen it. He's played eight games without two, a tongue of a law.
39:08And that's with Mike McDaniel calling plays. And the dude after his 10 and a half PPR points, he has one RB
39:14one scoring week in those eight games. Like we've already, like we have a, like a sizable sample.
39:19We've seen him play with a mobile quarterback and Tyler Huntley, and he was targeted on six of 85 routes, 7%, 7% target rate.
39:26Like we've already seen this. Like we've already seen a lot of these scenarios play out that like we're going into, like we don't need guesswork.
39:34We've already seen, we've seen if like this happened, but there will be more designed screens to him.
39:39But the second round, you want me to take this guy?
39:42He's not going to have more design stuff compared to a Mike McDaniel offense though.
39:46Who else are they going to design passes for?
39:49Brother, to a tongue of a low. He's run 765 pass routes with to a tongue of low on the field.
39:55He has a 26% target rate, 26%. You think that it's going up?
39:59It's impossible to find a quarterback. That's more check downy than Tua.
40:02A hundred percent. There's no, there's no other guy.
40:05The negative area arts, man. If we see this preseason, there's a reason people are like, fuck it, man.
40:10Play Jack strand. Like, there's no reason I want to watch this.
40:14Dude. They literally, he played so bad in the preseason that the Falcons were just like, it's impossible to say you won the job.
40:21Like, like, no, no, it's, it's, it's horrible. It's, it's such a tricky situation.
40:25I know that those splits are there. That's still a small sample.
40:28We're still talking about five, 10 games of, you have to allow for the offensive coordinator to assess, what they have and
40:35be like, we have one player that can do anything.
40:37Everything has to flow through him. My biggest issue with it is the injury risk to a player that small to have
40:44so much of the offense on his shoulders, 190 pounds.
40:47That's very rare. That's 10 pounds lighter than Christian McCaffrey.
40:50So we'll see that. That's the part of it that makes me nervous that it's, it's, I basically said of all these
40:56players on bad teams in the top 50, we're going to be, we're behind consensus on almost all of them, except a
41:02Chan, because a Chan has proven that he is that level of talent.
41:06And the splits from the past are, it's difficult without the same offensive coordinator there and without any wide receivers that they can throw to this year.
41:14It may be that he overcomes the lack of efficiency and touchdowns with just incredible volume and breakaway runs.
41:19Yeah, he could. I mean, he's a Jamal Charles esque player.
41:22Yeah. You know, but you know, where were you drafting?
41:25You know, like I'm trying to think that the 2012 Jamal Charles, you know, he was, he was being drafted overall, just
41:32like right at the two, three turn. That's like what outcome you're hoping for, right?
41:36Like that's what you need. You need 2012 Jamal Charles.
41:39It's like what you have to have. Yeah. I mean, late second round, you're getting him guys that are going there.
41:45It's a gente also on a bad team, but then Kenneth Walker's on a great team.
41:50And then Kenneth Walker, they let go of Demarcata.
41:52We're updating the projections for the chiefs. And it's like yet more touches for Kenneth Walker.
41:57You have to project it. Yeah. And he's, he's been a good pass catcher at this point in his career.
42:03What's limited him is the past protection. Um, but that fact that they let Demarcata go, like they aren't asking Brashard Smith
42:09and Emmett Johnson or year one, Emmett Johnson to protect Patrick Mahomes.
42:12Right? Like that's just, just not a reality. Like, so he's gonna, he's go, he set up to now like the Demarcata release is absolutely massive.
42:20I think for him, uh, cause there was still a chance he could have lost that, that stuff to Demarcata.
42:26And they, I don't think that would have made Demarcata good for fantasy.
42:29Like we just talked about with Amir Abdullah or Laquin Allen, but it was just like opportunities.
42:34He was going to have shaved off. And the fact that he has those, uh, in his runway, I also fully believe
42:41that we're going to see Andy Reed get back to Andy Reed, like running back screen game this year.
42:46Uh, I think we're definitely going to see that this year, the interior of their offensive line is strong.
42:52It's again, like I'm just always taking heads up.
42:54Kenneth Walker versus Devon H. And, uh, even Hampton, like you said, just because the, the, the team infrastructure is just so much stronger.
43:01Like there's, there's easy paths for me to convince myself.
43:04These guys scored double digit touchdowns. If not more like flirt with even like 15 plus, like these are guys I'm expecting
43:10to flirt with double digit touchdowns where H and I'm like, man, he can catch a lot of passes and still have
43:17a lot of touches, but like there could be like a six touchdown season here.
43:21Right? Like, like I'm the touchdowns are still the Holy grail, man.
43:24They, they carry so much. They do so much lifting and they're not as volatile in terms of projection as people believe they are.
43:31Like we know who's going to score the touchdowns.
43:34We know teams that project to score touchdowns as well.
43:37So guys like Kenneth Walker, Marian Hampton, like I just can't, I can't let those guys go and take a Devon H and over, over them.
43:44H and has the ability though, to supersede his supporting cast in a way that no other running back does other than
43:51maybe Jameer Gibbs to score from distance, whether it be in a screen, whether it be on a long run.
43:56Like I said, Jamal Charles is like the comp, right?
43:59This is why this is this. He has given us so much, so much anxiety this year is that because ultimately the
44:06most predictive stat and metric for fantasy points scored is fantasy points scored.
44:09So it just, it, it, man, I just, you can tell that this one makes me uncomfortable because we talked about this earlier.
44:16All the smart people I know, right? They're, they're drafting certain players, right?
44:20They're in on certain players, like there's a handful.
44:22And then with H and a handful of very smart people are out.
44:26And I don't like that. That makes me, you could, it makes me uncomfortable that we are not aligned with, with some of the, some super smart people.
44:34Yeah. I said, it's just a margin. It's just cutting too thin for me, uh, with that kind of capital.
44:40Like I, like I said, I want, I want everything up there, man.
44:44I want things to look peachy. Cause I'm going to miss guys like at the top anyways, just from injuries and stuff.
44:50Like, um, so that's what I said, just too tight of a margin for me to, to want to, to want to
44:57take him at that, at that cost. The thing is Kenneth Walker is also very, very, very good.
45:02He also has not quite, but he has some of that big play potential, like 80% of the big play potential that even a Chan has.
45:09He's one of the most explosive running backs in the league.
45:12I'm going to play a chain and DFS week one, you know?
45:16So don't act like it's again. It's just, this is a managed league roster managed take like week one DFS though.
45:22I hope he wins me some money. Yeah. A Chan is going to be amazing in week one.
45:27Uh, if you drafted him based on our cheat sheet, well, you you're welcome for the week one win.
45:33And then you can go ahead and trade him.
45:35Like you, we look at the underlying metrics after week one.
45:38If he's got a, if he's got a low target share, if he's getting three targets in week one, but he's, he's two long runs for touchdowns.
45:46That would actually be a reason to potentially sell.
45:49You're like, okay, he's not actually being used in the screen game the way we want.
45:53And it's time to get out. We can, we didn't sell high.
45:57That's something you can absolutely do, but he will go down as the most difficult player for us to project this year.
46:03Um, other than players. Okay. The player that's most, most projectable with a hundred percent health, because the other guys that we
46:10have a difficult time projecting, it's mostly health based like Mike Evans.
46:13Yeah. I was talking to John Paulson. He said, if there's one player that I'd love to know the exact number of
46:19games they play this year would be Mike Evans.
46:22Who would it be for you? Uh, I think there's a hundred percent chalk answer and it's Christian McCaffrey.
46:27Like there's just no doubt. Right. Cause he's the one guy.
46:31Cause when you look at this year, this, this year feels, this year feels so advantageous to have a first or second
46:37pick because you have these two players and Jameer Gibbs and Bison Robinson, who at age apex, uh, and Gibbs is even
46:43a little separate because his team is projected to score.
46:46Like the third most points of the NFL, like they play indoors.
46:50Uh, so, so is Bison, but like just not the, the team, uh, upside.
46:54I'm a professional. I can promise you. We're going to talk McCaffrey, but you mentioned Gibbs and we, I want to latch
47:00onto this for just a moment and then we'll pivot to McCaffrey.
47:03Okay. Things are lining up so well for Jameer Gibbs.
47:06I think this might be the best situation in the history of fantasy.
47:10I don't know about the history. I'd have to go back and check to see like, no, but I can't remember a time.
47:17I can't remember because you have guys like like Danny and Tomlinson, but they were not in this kind of offense.
47:23You have guys like McCaffrey, but they weren't in the, they weren't at this level where they're cleaning out the entire running back room.
47:30Jacob's sailors is the RB two or sayers or whatever.
47:33It's sailors. It's sailors or sailors sailors. It is sailors saying it's sailors.
47:36I didn't, it didn't sound right. I was like, is this really?
47:40I think it is sailors. It is sailor. So it's Jacob sailors.
47:43I believe is his name. And then there's a Vockey who is it.
47:47he's a special teams player. He's, he's not a real running back.
47:50He's a special teamer. He's a core special teamer.
47:53So you've got Vockey's technically a running back, but he's a core special teamer.
47:57So they wouldn't even play him at running back because it would take him away from special teams.
48:02And the lions are one of those, one of those teams that emphasizes special teams more than any other.
48:08And then you've got an MCL and a shoulder and a hip and a foot and all these things with, with Pacheco
48:14that, I mean, you've got no wide receiver three of consequence other than like the, the speedster who's redundant with Jameson Williams anyway, and Isaac Tesla.
48:22So the way things are lining up for, for Gibbs, who is that other next gen talent that can break any run,
48:28any pass for a touchdown at any time, like a Chan, he's more explosive than Christian McCaffrey and Christian McCaffrey's prime.
48:34He's in a better situation than any situation. Christian McCaffrey has ever been in.
48:38And he's in one of the best situations I've ever seen for any running back ever.
48:43And he also happens to be one of the best running back talent profiles for scoring fantasy points ever in his prime.
48:49So my head's exploding. I'm thinking this guy's range of outcomes at the, at the high end, we're talking 32 points a game.
48:56Yeah. Wasn't there a, I'm trying to think there was an Alvin Kamara year, right?
49:00Where he had like the whole backfield. Like this is what we're talking about.
49:04I think he, when he was the one year Camaro was the RB one, which I think was 2020 Camara doesn't even
49:10run a sub four, four or five 40. That's true.
49:13Yeah. From a speed wise, but I mean, this is a, this is the setup, right?
49:18Like you said, like this, it feels so much more advantageous than the, the recent years.
49:23Like one Oh one has actually been debatable the last three or four years.
49:27And there's been some variance in picks. Like this is, this has been like the first, like really kind of smash.
49:33Like it, like when you get in the leagues where you get to pick your draft slot.
49:38I like, I, I hate to use the chalk every year when people like, well, I can pick my draft.
49:43So I think I'm like one Oh one, you pick one Oh one this year because you get Jameer Gibbs, you get
49:50Jameer, you get a player that's, you know what?
49:5224 years old. They lose David Montgomery who had more runs inside the 10 yard line and more runs inside the five yard line than him last year.
50:00Um, you get this just apex run out. They play this amazing schedule where they play four games outdoors and two of
50:07their outdoor games before the fantasy playoffs are like week two in Buffalo, where you don't care about the weather and in
50:13Miami in week nine, where you don't care about the weather.
50:16Uh, so it's just like this amazing run out.
50:19It's, it just feels so, I mean, like this is a 400 point player.
50:23If he doesn't get hurt, like this is a 400 point PPR player.
50:27If he doesn't get hurt, it just feels so advantageous to pick at the front.
50:31And that's why I said, like, you know, if, if you don't have pick one and you could pick any player to
50:37know if he plays the whole season, Christian McCaffrey outscored both those guys by 50 points last year in a year where
50:44he ran for 3.9 yards per carry. Like if you're like this, he also had 29.3 fantasy points per game in 2019 with the Panthers.
50:51He is a member of the thousand thousand club and he will welcome Jameer Gibbs.
50:55He's the only guy that's done it twice. He's the only guy to do it, do it two times.
51:01When else did he, when, when, when, when, when else did he do it?
51:05Uh, he's there or he's 2000 yards. He's definitely the second player to, he has something you're the first player to do under his history.
51:12What is it? Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh my God.
51:15This is, this is a great, this is a great moment.
51:18I've stat checked Lord Reeves. Yeah. I've never done this.
51:21I've never, this is, this is all. Oh yeah.
51:23Here it is. It was a setup. We got him everybody.
51:27We've never got him. He's the first player to ever have 2000 yards and a hundred catches in multiple seasons.
51:32That's what it is. That's the stat. That's what it is.
51:36Player profiler. Gotcha. It was right up on the screen, right?
51:39As you were saying it. It was. And I was like, yeah, yeah, sure.
51:43Cause I sue. I'm like, you've never been wrong.
51:45This is unbelievable. I know. I've been wrong lots of times.
51:49I've been wrong lots of times. Maybe not on this show.
51:52This is the exception that proves the rule. My friend, it is the exception that I'm so happy to actually do some
51:58homework for once is because it's you. Anyone else?
52:01I'd be like, Oh yeah, by the way, okay, we're moving on with the street.
52:05And I was like, Oh no. Oh, this is, this is a Titanic moment for us.
52:10You are literally the best. No one, because how I know this is because I edit the audio of the podcast, right?
52:16People love this podcast. If you're out there with the podcast audience, you know, this is the best podcast.
52:21Like it's just so good. You know, we take so much time getting the environment of the, the audio correct.
52:27The, the feeling, the aesthetic of it, everything we want to deliver the highest quality, hi-fi listening experience for our audience.
52:33And when I'm editing a Lord Reeves show, I can just scroll.
52:37I can just scroll and there's nothing. There's no audio on my side at all.
52:41And there's no pausing. This just rat-a-tat-tat. And then the moment I started listening, it's stat, stat, evidence, evidence, position, position, evidence, evidence, do this, do that.
52:49Actionable advice, actionable advice. As someone who has broken down the audio element of the information that you're delivering to the audience
52:55and have sampled pretty much every fantasy analyst worth a damn in the space.
52:59If we're measuring information delivered efficiently and correctly, you're number one.
53:02And that's empirical. I'm telling you that's empirical. That is something that I have witnessed personally, bar by bar, decibel by decibel.
53:09But McCaffrey, if you knew he was playing 17 games, if I told you that today, he would easily be the one Oh three.
53:16Like he would, it wouldn't even be a question.
53:18He would be a one Oh three and draft.
53:21You knew he was playing 17 games. Um, especially now because the, like we just talked about the way drafts have gone, you don't get an RB one.
53:29Now, when you come back up at pick three, when we started drafting and you were getting Puka and Naku and chase,
53:35you could like get a Marion Hampton at that spot in round two.
53:39You could get Kenneth Walker. Sometimes that spot around, even a chase Brown would make it in that spot.
53:45You would even get Devon H in that spot.
53:47Like now, man, those guys are all gone. They're all gone.
53:50When you come back up, that's why I've tried to make the case, especially in these large field tournaments that he kind
53:57of belongs still in the one Oh three, uh, in those spots.
54:00Uh, like I understand the risk that comes with Christian McCaffrey and, you know, you could be holding the bag and just be out.
54:07And if you're out, that's fine. But like you are steered now in a direction.
54:11If you have pick three, pick four to go wide receiver, wide receiver to start and often wide receiver, wide receiver, wide
54:18receiver to start because the running back, just available in those spots are, aren't worth a damn compared to the wide receivers.
54:24Right? Like that's, that's the thing. So, um, yeah, he would be easily be, like I said, if you just knew he
54:30was playing 17 games, it'd be a smash. Right.
54:33But so you said Ken Walker to like, Ken Walker be a great guy.
54:37I think on that, like if you tell me I'm getting 17 games of Ken Walker, I feel really phenomenal.
54:43Um, yes, about that, about that situation. Um, or you know, like these guys, the, the guys that impact all the other guys, right?
54:50Like Joe burrow, like 17 games of Joe burrow may not mean you're drafting Joe burrow, but it might just mean something
54:56for T Higgins and chase Brown and Jamar chase.
54:59Right. Cause that's been the undoing for these bangles guys as these sections of these seasons where Joe burrows miss time.
55:05And you're like, damn it. Yeah. Damn it. It's interesting.
55:08I'd like to see what happens with the Rams of Stafford.
55:11Time. Oh God, David. Well, it'd be interesting to see if they, if they ended up going with Simpson or not.
55:17Uh, so that, you know, we don't know. And, and, and hopefully that doesn't happen.
55:21I can tell you that on our rankings, we have Christian McCaffrey at the one Oh four, but that's simply because we
55:28have Puka Nakua projected for much more points or not much more points, but more points.
55:32Uh, and you, you, you, the player, the player profiler top six, top seven is, is not accounting for risk that we can't measure.
55:39Okay. Right. Right. So there's all this risk around Puka Nakua.
55:42Apparently, Hey, we can't measure it. You know what?
55:45I say draft him at the one Oh three, one Oh four, you know, Christian McCaffrey.
55:49I say draft him at the one Oh three, one Oh four.
55:53Now me personally, my personal cheat sheet. I have a hard time with Christian McCaffrey.
55:57I'm damaged goods. Right. I, I, I, a lot of gamers I am sure do.
56:02Yeah. I'm damaged goods. That's why on our draft kit.
56:04And I was showing the draft kit to see, because we have the Arizona schedule up.
56:09So that was the, that was the world famous draft kit at player profiler in the draft kit.
56:14You can get like what the math says. And the math says Puka and McCaffrey there, not Jamar chase.
56:20Yeah. And that's how we have it. You go to my personal cheat sheet.
56:24I'm probably going to go JSN because I just, he makes me feel warm and cuddly and that I've, I'm not sorry.
56:30Like that's how I feel. And it, it also depends if you are going to be in a little bit more of
56:36a competitive league where, you know, you're in there with killers, you know, you're in there with people that are grinding best ball all day long.
56:44Then I say McCaffrey there. Yeah. I think large field, if you're, we're talking like manage, like these, you're, you're a gamer.
56:50That's just trying to beat 12, loving other people.
56:53Right. Like in that scenario, you're absolutely have no problem getting chase Brown, getting Kenneth Walker, getting a Marion Hampton.
56:59The, the, the challenge that you were facing is in the hyper competitive drafts where taking McCaffrey at the one Oh three
57:05can mean everything to your running back room. Most people, they're not going to be in that situation.
57:10They're going to be at the two, three turn and they're going to have a couple of running back options.
57:16That's just how it usually plays out. So that I, I have, that hasn't really factored in as much factors more into the best ball rankings for Austin.
57:24It is the seasonal rankings. I mean, cause he, I mean, he's the, he's the one guy that can, I think push those two.
57:31Cause you, a lot of people have, I think some people don't have Ms.
57:35RB three, but yeah, I think there are some people that don't have, because they're factoring in, you know, just they are
57:41factoring in the things that are unquantifiable. Right. I mean, I've seen him go in certain drafts, six, seven.
57:47Yeah. I've seen him go even later than that.
57:49And in, he's the one guy that's applied closer to like 110.
57:53No way. No way. No, we, we, we've had him solidly at four, but there will be people that just don't have him on their board.
58:00I made this call very early with the top four.
58:03I was like, Gibbs can break fantasy this year.
58:06Bijan is, is, is the definition of solid and a picky won't regret.
58:10And then I'm going with the fantasy points. We're going with the guys that have been productive.
58:15I'm going with Puka Nakua and I'm going with Christian McCaffrey.
58:18And you guys want to talk about injuries. You guys want to talk about bite marks.
58:22Fine. But these are the guys that I don't want to face when I'm playing someone.
58:27So that's who we think you should be drafting.
58:30It sometimes it doesn't have to be that, that any, any harder than that.
58:34It doesn't. I mean, cause his median, he wasn't even good last year and outscored those guys by 50 points, like 50 points.
58:40Like, and his backup is now Kalen black, right?
58:43I mean, his back backup was probably Devo Samuel, but like, it's like, man, his, his median is just so high.
58:49And then what if he isn't, what if it was a blip and he has actually has some efficiency?
58:54Like you're cooked, man. You're cooked. Maybe I should change my cheat sheet.
58:58No, I mean, I get it. Like I, an individual, cause like I said, he's going to have some very, like he
59:04won't even be on people's board, right? Like some people like, we'll just remove him.
59:09They're like, I'm not doing it. Um, the ironic thing is he's actually played three full seasons in the past four years.
59:15It's not like this. It's not even this every other year thing with him.
59:19He's actually played three full years. That, that, that is a, uh, that is a natural law, by the way, there's a
59:26natural law that says, and I think it was originally discovered with pack animals, uh, that there's a, the prime of a
59:32pack animal is actually closer is, is on the back half of their career, right?
59:36Because what ends up happening is, is you build, build, build, build, build endurance, build, build, build, build, build the ability to,
59:43um, you know, move up the hill. And early on, you're going to experience connective tissue injuries and so on as your body acclimates to this stress.
59:50And so it makes sense that most of Frank Gore's injuries happened in the first couple of years.
59:56He was known as injury prone. And when he, when he retired, he was known as one of the most durable running backs.
60:02But for the first five years of his career, he was known as injury prone.
60:07That's Frank Gore. And that's a natural law of just, uh, So keep that in mind.
60:11Kenneth Walker gamers. Yeah. Just because I got, cause I often hear this like, Oh, he's, he's injury prone and old.
60:17And I'm like, Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, Whoa. These are two different things.
60:21Okay. It just because you're on the back half of the age apex doesn't mean you're more injury prone.
60:26You're actually less injury prone, especially if you've already demonstrated a full season recently.
60:30Now, if you're in the throes of, of, of a constant chronic problem with your lower body, like Mike Evans, that's a different thing.
60:37I just don't want, I don't want to conflate the two concepts.
60:41If you're at the, if you're in the second half of your career, you're at the peak ability to withstand the stress of the job.
60:48It's both physical and mental by the way. Right.
60:50Uh, but if you have had a, a, a recent history of significant lower body injuries and they've been strung together, that
60:57is a more powerful signal that you're injury prone than this, this notion that, you know, uh, you've been better acclimated to
61:03the stress of the environment that you're in. So you could argue that McCaffrey is actually durable.
61:08Mike Evans is not, even though they both get categorized as in the same bucket of all these 49ers are going to get hurt.
61:15The electric substation, et cetera. Yeah. The substation. I saw there's like an account that runs the substation now and stuff too.
61:21Uh, but the 49ers are managing these guys, I think relatively well this off season.
61:26Uh, we'll see how it happens in season, but they, they've been operating with kids gloves with all these guys.
61:31I mean, remember last year, do you remember the Friday before week one, they shut McCaffrey down and like the internet lost its mind.
61:38Like, and that was warranted. Like it was warranted.
61:41Like it wasn't like, I was like, do you remember that though?
61:44Like they shut him down on the Friday forever.
61:47It was like, Oh my God, it's happening. And then, you know, he comes out, plays the whole season, dust everyone in fantasy football.
61:54Are you, are you, are you saying it's, it's conceivable, reasonable to go McCaffrey over Bijon?
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62:41Symptoms noted are signs of mild to moderate dehydration.
62:43Consult a healthcare professional. If symptoms persist. Yes. If you, if you knew he was playing 17 games, I think you would make that case, right?
62:51Like one place, the Atlanta Falcons, that it's probably going to start multiple quarterbacks the entire season.
62:56And one place, the San Francisco 49. Please don't forget the key element about those quarterbacks, which is, they're both left-handed.
63:02Yes. Which left-handed quarterbacks suck. Penix actually isn't bad.
63:05Like he's definitely not good. Like Penix doesn't qualify for good, but I think people think Penix is a lot worse than he actually is too.
63:12He's just not good. He's certainly much better than Tua.
63:15He's on the barometer of not good. That's like functional for his other pieces.
63:19Like look at like London, London's been like incredible.
63:22Anytime Penix has played versus like any other quarterback that London's played with.
63:25So it's going to happen quick. Don't worry, London fans.
63:28Oh yeah. Yeah. It's going to happen quick. Penix will be back.
63:32Don't worry. I mean, the hook on Tua is going to be swift.
63:35Oh, absolutely. Speaking of swift, that's another running back I can get.
63:39I like Deandre Swift. It's much easier to sell me on a situation for a running back than it is how his
63:45talent profile is going to, you know, surpass the situation, elevate him beyond the situation.
63:50Like I said, I got one guy, A-Chan, and you weren't, you couldn't even get there with one guy that I think
63:56has the best case, all the volume and all the talent.
63:59I don't even disagree with you. It's just, I get the bull case.
64:03I get it too. The bottom line is we can't even come up with a guy.
64:07Come up with together. A single player on a bad team that we can get behind his cost.
64:13Yeah. I'm trying to think like the earliest guy in a bad team.
64:16I mean, I mean, it would be default, I guess, Bison Robinson, but, uh, behind Bison Robinson.
64:21But we're already talking about moving him to 103.
64:24We just had a, well, if you knew, no, I'm just saying there's a world.
64:28Cause you can't move him behind McCaffrey. Cause you still have to factor in like the age, the apex and all the,
64:35uh, you can't, but you can, right? You can't, but you're good.
64:38I'm trying to think though, realistically who the next bad player is.
64:41Like, I'm actually like, I've been drafting this year, like our bad team player.
64:46And, um, I'm looking at some of the teams I've drafted already.
64:49Cause people complain to me, you know, they complain that, you know, you, you, you say the same things over and over again.
64:56You find different ways to say the same thing, but that's fantasy football.
64:59It's a re litigation. Like we have to reinforce like this stuff.
65:03I promise you, you will be successful at fans of all.
65:06If you just follow a few like core tenants, if you do draft players on good teams going in and we, we
65:12don't always know all the good teams. That's fair, but we have a good idea who the good teams are.
65:18Um, because you know, the NFL is fluid and injuries happen.
65:21If you also just adjust for price versus this year and last year, as in don't pay a premium for last year's
65:28guys that moved up and buy the players that were valued really highly the year before and didn't, and maybe like underperformed and are now cheaper.
65:35Like Chris Alave was like that last year, right?
65:38Like it was like a clear thing, like, Oh cool.
65:41To scoop them up now. And then maybe he's the opposite this year, right?
65:45Cause he's going like wide receiver 11. Um, but yeah, I, I'm looking through my portfolio right now of teams I've drafted
65:51and like, I'm in like a top 60 picks and there isn't like one guy that, uh, that I believe is on
65:57a bad, that is on a bad team that like I've been drafting.
66:01It's cause again, that's like one of the tenants I follow.
66:04Um, so yeah, it's, but the simplicity of this position is driven by a lot of data and a lot of experience.
66:11Casey Concepcion is my highest rostered player on a guy that's certifiably on a team I believe is bad.
66:16And that's a beautiful, beautiful pick. That's a guy that's not expensive, but could be the clear big time playmaker for their offense like that.
66:23And you can get him in the double digit rounds.
66:26That's exactly the type of player. I need to see sort of speculative upside, massive potential speculative upside without paying a high price.
66:33You want to drop that guy onto my fantasy team?
66:36I'm happy to have him. I'm happy to have him because also there's a case where, Oh, their offense is a, is
66:42it tick better than it was projected to be?
66:45Again, that's all part of the upside case for a guy like Casey Concepcion.
66:49Yeah. 100%. And then he's a guy that I just think, uh, you don't draft as a starter in most leagues.
66:55You get to operate with, he's not starting equity on a lot of rosters.
66:59And, you know, there's an outcome where he catches just like a bunch of passes, man.
67:03Like there's a lot of stuff manufactured for him.
67:06He's, he ends up being like a PPR. They call it the scam, but like, you know, but yeah, not a super
67:12high touchdown equity, but just has a path to maybe run a hundred more routes than any other rookie wide receiver.
67:18And maybe even flirt with a hundred receptions. If all things go well, uh, an intersection, he's competing with some guys at
67:25targets, you know, like a fan in and then, but I do think in a run out, like he could flirt with
67:31a hundred receptions because they're going to design so much stuff for him.
67:35He's so good. Yeah. Really good player. Saddled some bad quarterbacks in college, which, um, you know, it was a bummer, but
67:41Hey, that's, he's still just like a super cheap, super fun.
67:44Like you said, and he, he goes after like stripling now, cause striplings like dusted him.
67:49We'll see where Carnell Tate falls to. He's been plummeting in these drafts.
67:53yeah, a hundred percent, are clearly not as sensitive as the nerves of others.
67:57They're very sensitive. They don't want him. They don't want Carnell Tate.
68:00They don't want those problems. There has been almost nothing positive about cam Ward reported this off season.
68:05No, he's looked, he's looked real bad too. Even if your own eye test, like there's no one that could watch those
68:12preseason games and squint and be like, well, and granted it's a new system, a year two quarterback, you know, that's developing
68:18a small sample size in the preseason. But I mean, there's nothing that instills confidence, but it's just very, I think a
68:24lot of that is priced in though with Carnell Tate.
68:27Like it's just very rare that we get a top five, top 10 pick at wide receiver.
68:32That is like now, like nobody wants is like a top 30 wide receiver.
68:36But everybody knows Carnell Tate. This is not a guy where it's like Corey Davis top 10 pick, but he was at Western Michigan.
68:43And we're really not sure what the level of competition means for what he might do in the NFL.
68:49Right. Right. Or a guy, yeah, Kevin White, you know, he played just basically played big slot.
68:54And had a, had a bunch of yak big deal.
68:57Right. Or Tavon Austin, another West Virginia guy, top 10, but you're not sure what, what, what kind of role is he going to play in the NFL?
69:05Is he, is he undersized? Is he too small?
69:07He says, there's none of that here. And he's also a quarterback receiver that yes, if Cam Ward is absolutely heinous, there
69:14will be volatility here, but he also is the archetype of receiver that can be good with bad quarterback play in a vacuum.
69:20Like he can have big spikes with it because he is a contested catch demon.
69:25Uh, he's an everything demon though. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
69:27Well, I mean, he's like a huge, I don't think he's ever going to be like a big yak guy or like
69:33a guy that's going to take like a six yard slant and turn it into like 40 yard gains.
69:39I don't think that's much of his game, but well, I think he, I think he'll be a yak guy in that
69:45he'll have good yards after the catch, but I don't think he's going to be a break a tackle for a touchdown guy.
69:52Yeah. But Cam Ward is, does have a big arm and he will throw tight window throws.
69:57And this is the archetype of player that can, you know, turn those into converted catches more often than like you, the guys that we just ran through.
70:05Who's the best in the league at that? Maybe Justin Jefferson.
70:08And you have the day ball factor too. I mean, rookie Malik neighbors had 170 targets.
70:13We seen in 2011, Brandon Marshall had 140 targets.
70:15Stefan Diggs had 260 target seasons with day ball.
70:18Dwayne bow in 2012 had a 25% target. So like, that's what you're hoping for.
70:22You're hoping that just like the, the, the raw opportunity at this cost will be enough to float you through.
70:28He's very good. I mean, he's a really good player.
70:31I mean, he's so good, but there's a reason why, like he said, he doesn't leapfrog that all those guys we rattled
70:37off early in the show that go wide receiver 15 to wide receiver 28.
70:41Like, cause all those guys play in just the infrastructure for us.
70:45That's the hardest part of the one guy we didn't talk about, uh, that I know you want to get to is
70:51Tep McMillan, who I've actually warmed up on. The Panthers actually showcasing this proof of concept of getting moving him into a
70:57new position this year, but it's still the hardest hurdle to overcome when you want me to take a guy that's attached
71:04to Bryce Young versus a guy that's attached to Joe Burrow or attached to Joe, Josh Allen or attached to Jordan love or Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert.
71:12Right? Like it's just really hard. It's a tough hurdle, man.
71:15Like it's a real tough hurdle. Like I've definitely warmed up on my projection for Tep McMillan, but still I'm not drafting
71:21a lot of him because I'm drafting a lot of those other guys.
71:25But yeah, I'm, I'm very happy to see the proof of concept that they laid out in this plan.
71:31Cause I was worried after the Brazzel injury. I was like, damn it.
71:34Did this Brazzel injury kind of thwart some of this and still in the preseason and granted small sample, but they are
71:41moving him around and getting him into the slot and getting him free squares.
71:45The problem is he's attached to a quarterback that do for 200 yards, four times last year.
71:50And like, where's my ceiling? He feels like another guy.
71:53Like I actually believe Tep McMillan will beat his ADP.
71:55But like, if you draft the wide receiver 14 at wide receiver 20, what did you get?
72:00Like, you know what I mean? Like, what did you get?
72:03Like there's a path where Jalen Waddell is the wide receiver 10 at wide receiver 20 costs.
72:08There's a path where T Higgins is the wide receiver.
72:11Like we've seen it already. Oh yeah. We've already seen T Higgins do it.
72:15There's a path where, you know, these guys absolutely are wide receiver ones and like true difference makers.
72:21I think Tep McMillan beating his ADP largely constitutes like him being like a high end wide receiver too.
72:26Yeah. Hey, congratulations. You beat your projection by 0.3 points.
72:29Good job. But I'm, I'm happy to at least see them following through on something they told us they were going to do.
72:36Until week one starts. I need to see it week one to believe it a hundred percent.
72:40I got it. That's, that's just. Cause that was the Marvin Harrison thing, right?
72:44Like Marvin Harrison Jr. This was the layout. Like he was used exactly like rookie year.
72:49Marvin Harrison Jr. Stuck on the ball, stuck out on the boundary with a quarterback that doesn't throw that diet, that menu.
72:55He isn't, he's going to operate on that section of the menu.
72:59And that, that was the worry, like no free squares.
73:02You get nothing at the line of scrimmage and the volatility is just too high.
73:06And that was my initial thought. Cause year two, everyone was still drafting Marvin Harrison Jr.
73:11Largely the same ADP as year one. And that was my concern with Tet was like, Oh, we're just going to run him back to same ADP.
73:18Like when he was used this capacity and this is the out, right?
73:22Like you get him more free squares and you give him more of that, that those fantasy smoothing types targets.
73:28Absolutely. So at least he's going to have those.
73:31And I believe he's going to have those, but the problem is he just runs into that hotbed of all those names.
73:37We ran through that just play on better teams, man.
73:40This is what I'm talking about. So I'm talking about, I want to talk to you about in specifically Jalen Waddle, because
73:46there's a real case for Jalen Waddle to be a wide receiver one for sure, but also potentially even a top five
73:53wide receiver, because he was top 12 at all these key efficiency metrics, route, win rate, separation rate, first downs per route run yards per route run.
74:00He's always been super efficient and he's always been one of, if not the most versatile wide receivers in the NFL, where
74:07one year he does it with yak. The other year he does it with air yards and he can do it all.
74:13I mean, we talk about between him and Carnell Tate, Carnell Tate's a little bit bigger bodied guy, a little bit more winning on the boundary.
74:21Jalen Waddle can, is one of those guys that can take a ball to the house that he catches on a five
74:27yard slant, but then he could also hit you on a double move.
74:31And that's what makes him so dangerous. It's very difficult to be too bullish on Cortland Sutton, knowing that now he's competing
74:37with someone who is a real wide receiver one in Jalen Waddle.
74:40So I'd be waddles. One of those guys, when I look at our rankings, he's it's just been this consistent tick up, tick up, tick up.
74:48Okay. Now he's 46. Okay. Now he's 45. What do you think?
74:51I have met 36 overall. Oh God. Yeah. I mean, but like we talk about the rankings like that, that RB two,
74:58RB three group, I have a lot lower than where they go in terms of ADP.
75:02Because again, like the dead zone was still really real last year.
75:06There were only three RB twos that beat their, that were, that beat their ADP.
75:10And one of them was RJ Harvey, which kind of like loosely counts.
75:14Like again, like again, again, beating your ADP would again, now tell me what it meant.
75:19But yeah, I still think that's a really soft spot of the draft.
75:22And I value those wide receivers. All those names that we talked about, I think are more valuable than those running backs that we've been talking about.
75:30I mean, more valuable than say a Kyron Williams, more valuable than say a breeze hall.
75:35I have them over. Yeah. Like over them. Like, I think those guys are fine.
75:39I just think that those guys are more valuable.
75:42And I want that to represent that in terms of like my roster building and rankings.
75:46Right. Like that's how I want you to draft because that's how I'm drafting.
75:50Speaking of how you're drafting, well, how would you classify if you, if you had any, any build specific drafts, some drafts
75:57just happen to play out best player available pretty much.
75:59But if you've had some specific builds that you've executed on, would one more likely be a zero RB or more likely
76:06to be robust RB or like maybe hero RB?
76:08Yeah. So like anchor hero is more of the go-to plus if I, and then in the back half, I'm picking the back half.
76:15I have been more, which you, I guess would label robust, but it wouldn't be keep drafting running backs.
76:21It would be just, I want, so my philosophy going into any draft is I want two of my top 12 running backs.
76:27Okay. So I define robust RB as you start running back, running back, or you get three in the first four rounds.
76:34Okay. Yeah. I'm more or less just looking to get to like, basically like my top 10 guys, which would be Gibbs,
76:40Robinson, McCaffrey, James Cook, Saquon, Chase Brown, Walker, Hampton, and then Taylor Henry.
76:44If I can get two of those guys, that's what I want to do.
76:48Cause I, I believe the hotbed of receiver this year is that what we've been laying out.
76:53And I just want to attack that range. But obviously there are certain spots where you, you know, you're going to take Jamar chase.
77:00You're going to take a Puka Nakua and then come back and be able to still get one of those other guys.
77:06So I will build that way, but more or less my philosophy is to get one of those guys.
77:12I just don't want to be drafting RB. Basically, I just don't want to be drafting RB twos, right?
77:17Like this is my thing. I don't want to be drafting RB twos.
77:21And you consider like a scataboo, Brees Hall. Those are RB twos for you.
77:25Yep. Brees Hall. Those guys. I like the, the couple of guys I do make like caveats for when they fall past
77:31ADP would be Deandre Swift, Travis HN or HN or what?
77:34I don't even know like what we're doing for the correct pronunciation on this.
77:38At that point, I'm still work, workshopping. It feels wrong though.
77:42Like it still feels bad coming out of my mouth, running back Travis on the scenes.
77:46And that's really it, man. Like those are the kinds of guys I know a little bit, been non PPR interested in David Montgomery.
77:53I was going to say, I was going to say that's the third, the third name was staring at me.
77:59It was David Montgomery. I did take him in.
78:02He fell way past ADP in a super flex league.
78:04So I did grab him, but he's been more of a non PPR target for me, like the half point PPR, because
78:11he, I mean, if there was ever to be a setup for a guy, cause he, he profiles like a dead zone running back.
78:18But if there was going to be a, a spot, a setup for one of these, hold on.
78:23No, I don't think he does first year with a new team that goes out and gets him.
78:28That has a great defense. Well, if you look at the history of guys that fail in this ADP, he absolutely fits that profile.
78:35Cause it's guys that don't catch passes. He can catch passes, but I think he can though.
78:40Well, he can, but CJ Stroud historically is not thrown to running backs.
78:44And if David Montgomery is a high target earner for the Houston Texans, something went wrong for the Houston, the 2026 Houston Texans, right?
78:51Like they have, they have too many players that should be getting targets over him.
78:55Well, now tank Dell's on the IR. I know what you're saying, but when I think of a guy that's quinch on Judkins would be more of that.
79:03Yeah. I mean, but he's at least a rookie contract player.
79:06Like you, you're looking at guys that typically beat the dead zone.
79:10It's rookie contract players who catch passes. So like the guys this year that kind of really qualify would be like love,
79:16uh, scataboo, um, Henderson's kind of like below that.
79:19Uh, it's, it's hard. The scataboo thing. I actually really liked scataboo and I have him as in my home league keeper
79:25league, which is like my favorite league. You gotta love scataboo man.
79:28But bummer is like every time Harbaugh talks about him, like he kind of like tears him down a little bit.
79:34And I don't like that. I don't like it.
79:37I want my, I want like his brother, uh, John, uh, John Harbaugh.
79:41Like every time he talks about Herbert, like he talks about Herbert, like he's Jesus.
79:45Uh, like Ben Johnson talks about Luther burden and, and Liam Cohen talks about Parker Washington.
79:50That's how I want my coaches talking about my guys, like their fam, like their family members.
79:55Like every time Harbaugh talks about scataboo, he's like, he kind of is just like, I don't know, man.
80:00He's like, he's like a frustrating child to him.
80:03Like a frustrating teenager. He's like kind of always mad at him for something silly.
80:07Like this week he got that, he had that 15 yard penalty or whatever.
80:11And Harbaugh's like, well, yeah, like he, you know, he had that dumb ass penalty.
80:15And like, it was like, you know, it's like, damn it.
80:19Like, is this like what they're going to do to us?
80:22Like, because if anyone's going to be like some that going to ram their head against the wall, it'd be like this
80:28coaching staff, Matt Nagy, Greg Roman, Harbaugh. Like it would be this group of dudes.
80:32Like that would just like misuse cam scataboo. Yeah.
80:35I'm pulling it up right now. I just think that David Montgomery, he's not as dynamic as he was earlier in his
80:41career where he does have a 54 catch season, a 42 catch season, but Carlos Hyde once had a high catch season,
80:48like Carlos Hyde once had 50 plus catches. So that's not, I guess that's not enough reason to say, Hey, this guy actually can't.
80:55Yeah. He can catch passes, dump offs and design plays screen plays.
80:58Yes. But going out there and earning his own target, it's not the David Montgomery profile.
81:03And yeah, this, this does look like a dead zone running back, but I will say like, he's the, like you kind
81:09of hinted at, and like if, if you have a David Montgomery, like player, like you would want him attached to one of the league's best defenses.
81:17That's the thing. Like all the different circumstances, it was, it's sort of like the H and where it's like, are you
81:23going to make one exception in the top 50 for a player on a bad team?
81:28I'm like, well, he usually goes out like he can fall.
81:31And I think in a lot of gamers, home leagues, like he also, Oh no, no, I'm saying like, okay, if you
81:37have these rules of thumb, you would, would, would one exception, right?
81:41So what the, the top 50 bad team player would be a Chan for me.
81:45And then the dead zone running back, who's actually not a dead zone running back, just based on the extenuating circumstances would
81:51be David Montgomery, because I've certainly seen a lot of dead zone running backs that have that Dave Montgomery profile on different teams and fantasy gamers.
81:59Oh my God. Do they twist themselves into pretzels to, to justify drafting them?
82:03And a lot of it has to do with the, the offensive coordinator and the coach is often a big reason why
82:09those, those dead zone guys get drafted, but no one's talking about like the Houston coaching is like, Oh, the reason, this
82:16is the reason why we don't give Montgomery, because he's going to coach X, he's going to help them out.
82:21So, cause there are a few running backs. Like I definitely believe can catch passes.
82:26Like they're like capable of catching passes, but if they are catching passes, people haven't done like the math of like, it's probably bad for that entire offense.
82:34Like you brought up facial to like a facial to and as a high target share, something went wrong for the Jaguars.
82:40Like something, something went, something went wrong for the 2026 Jaguars.
82:43Something went very, very wrong. Yeah. In that year where you had 54 receptions, David Montgomery did put up 438 receiving yards.
82:50So he's as dynamic as a guy that came out of college running a four, six, three is going to be there.
82:56Is there a couple of guys that you said you don't care?
83:00Like Javante Williams, like if Javante Williams is catching a lot of passes, like something went wrong.
83:04Kyron Williams, something went wrong. If we have to go to this guy to like have a high target or he's like a target earner in our offense.
83:13So it went wrong in this offense. Man. Like, I mean, to me, Kyron Williams looks like a dead zone running back to me.
83:19I'm not sorry. This guy that has real competition for touches, which has been well publicized on the team, a guy that's
83:26not electric in space at all undersized, but you're telling yourself a story that's completely situation based.
83:31Okay. Right. It has to be a little bit of both.
83:34It can't be 100% the player or 100% the situation.
83:37So for example, with a Chan, there is a little bit of the situation that I like in that they don't have any receivers.
83:44If they had just a Cortland Sutton level receiver that would siphon some extra target away, someone that could command some targets on the outside.
83:51So it wouldn't be just a complete HN funnel of an offense that would actually make his situation worse.
83:56But yeah, 100%. But there, so there is, there is a singular element of like the HN situation that is actually good, shockingly.
84:03And so it can't be all or nothing with Kyron Williams.
84:06I've never been able to get there with him because it is 100% situation.
84:10And that just makes me nervous with a guy like Deandre Swift.
84:14I think you're getting a lot. I think you're getting a much better situation in that he doesn't have a Blake Corum.
84:20And the one guy that people are trying to sell us on is the next Blake Corum.
84:25Isn't the next Blake Corum is, is a bit much less explosive version.
84:29Isn't even healthy. He's week to week, which means month to month.
84:32And it was completely like that. Like Siverin talks about the split that they had at the back half last year, but
84:39he was completely dominated by a very injured Deandre Swift.
84:41Like in every metric imaginable, Deandre Swift was more explosive.
84:44He was a bigger, larger plus in the past game.
84:47And this is like, while Deandre Swift was playing through like three injuries, he had a groin injury, a quad injury, a
84:54calf injury, and still put up 1400 yards and 10, 10 touchdowns while sharing work.
84:58Like there's a, there's a chance where like, he's actually undervalued.
85:01You know, he goes, I believe he should be next to the guys that we kind of talk about.
85:07Like, I think he's a very similar player to like Brees.
85:10Hall and Jeremiah love in the context of the 2026 season.
85:13I think those guys, those guys have, well, and Deandre Swift was an amazing prospect too.
85:17People do forget about that as well. He actually was a really dynamic prospect, but he's in a, he's got better team infrastructure as well.
85:25So like, I think you should be with those guys.
85:28He's more explosive than David Montgomery, right? Like for example, you could never take David Montgomery over Deandre Swift because Swift's in
85:34a better situation and, and he's more explosive playmakers.
85:37That's like an easy win. For me, of course, I'm taking Deandre Swift over Kyron Williams.
85:41Of course, I'm taking him over Jeremiah love because he's giving me a lot of what they're giving me.
85:47Plus he's in an incredible situation. He's in a better situation than they are much better.
85:51In the case of Jeremiah love, Jeremiah love is not draftable for me.
85:55Sorry. And let someone else have those problems. We're going to have plenty of injuries.
85:59As you mentioned during the year, I don't need to volunteer for a guy who's 50, 50, if he, 50, 50, if
86:06he for week one, I'm out, right? I'm much more likely to draft Mike Washington and Tyler Algier this year.
86:11Those are guys. I'm drafting pretty aggressively. Deandre Swift is someone I've been drafting very aggressively.
86:16Got him again in the staff draft. Like, I'm just like you guys, I don't know why he's available.
86:22I mean, we have the rankings published. He's it's, we're staring right at it.
86:26When we talk about the dead zone, I look at the dead zone is starting with Kyron Williams and going to Ramadre Stevenson.
86:32That's the dead zone. There's a couple of guys in that zone of ADP that I think don't belong there.
86:38One of them is Deandre Swift. And there's one of those guys that I think has landed in such the perfect situation
86:44for his particular skill set that I think he's a value.
86:48And that's David Montgomery. I'm basically getting value trapped by David Montgomery.
86:51Sometimes in the dead zone, you get value trapped.
86:54That's what's happening with David Montgomery. And, but with Deandre Swift, that one, I would consider myself reaching, right?
86:59So if you take two dead zone guys that I'm drafting is David Montgomery and Deandre Swift, I would say the Swifts
87:05are reaches because I don't want to let him get back, get by me.
87:09Montgomery, he's falling to me. Right. That's it. It's like, sometimes you're just going to have drafts where the wide receivers get
87:16pushed up and all those guys we talked about are gone.
87:19And your build is still like, you've got wondering back whether you started with like Gibbs or someone.
87:24And you're just like, yep, now I'm coming back to where we've caught up.
87:28Cause again, I hate to keep using his name as an example, but like, if I have a choice to take my friend Harrison Jr.
87:35Or David Montgomery, I've got to take David Montgomery every time.
87:39It's interesting. There was a video came out with Michael Wilson talking about the roles.
87:43And we've been talking about the roles for 12 years on this show, X versus Y versus Z and what that means.
87:49And he mentioned, Hey, you know, in this offense, they focus a little bit more on getting the ball delivery, you know, ball delivery to the X receiver.
87:57And I'm playing Z. And so that's just something that is interesting about this year versus last year.
88:03And I'm a team player and I'm Michael Wilson.
88:05And, you know, I'm basically doing my best Parker Washington impression out here.
88:09I'm just not quite the same. It's not quite the same team.
88:12I'm not quite the same player, but I'm aspiring to be Parker Washington.
88:16And it's like, Hey man, we get it. You're saying all the right things.
88:20You get a beautiful family. Kids are there running around at practice.
88:24You're working hard in the, in the gym. You're showing up early, leaving late love guys like that.
88:29Right. And, but, but, and so that, that soundbite gets clipped by people that are fans of Marvin Harrison.
88:34And it's like, Oh look, even he's admitting he's not going to be targeted in the NFL.
88:39How it works is the Z. position is that versatile playmaker, right?
88:43That's why it's such an incredible setup for Jalen Waddle this year, that they can just park Cortland Sutton out at X
88:49more than he's ever been parked before. Cause they've tried moving him around, but he's just not, he's just not man.
88:55Well, more so in this version of the NFL, the, the Z and the hybrid guy, that's, those are the guys that got in the bumps.
89:03But last time I was on the show pre-draft, we talked about this, right?
89:07Like, yeah, we've talked. Yeah. So this is all plowed ground, but the bottom line is it doesn't matter.
89:12How much in practice, the offensive coordinator is talking about the X is the first read.
89:17Yeah. In a lot of these cases, the X is the first read.
89:20He's the obvious first read. And do you know how long a lot of quarterbacks linger on that X?
89:26Almost. Almost. They give it a, the, the slightest of glances because they know alpha corners over there, or there's a shift
89:32over there, or at the end of the day, it's not going to happen.
89:36They've lost confidence in that, in that X is ability to separate against elite cornerbacks.
89:41So they will look there and then get the defense's attention.
89:44And then immediately, boom, shift to the right, and then dump it off to the Z.
89:48And that's, what's going to happen. That's what you're going to see happening over and over and over again.
89:54It doesn't matter. Sure. Give Marvin Harrison jr. That first read.
89:57It doesn't. Why, why is that affecting rankings? Yeah.
90:00I mean, like I said, I'm usually full of wide receivers by then.
90:03Just like the Cardinals are going to be a team.
90:06We laid out their schedule. They're going to probably make a quarterback change at some point.
90:11I have for dynasty. I'm still keeping the door open.
90:14It's just the way the 2026 layout presents itself.
90:16It's hard to be bullish, man. And that's the thing with Brian Thomas jr too.
90:21I would love to buy a discounted Brian Thomas jr, man, but the layout is so rough this year.
90:26I mean, you know, you look at last year when those three guys played together, him, Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington, he
90:33basically had a 17 and a half yard depth of target.
90:36It's like an inoperable depth of target for like fantasy football.
90:39And then that was against like the league's easiest schedule.
90:42And now to open this year, he goes Denzel Ward, Patrick Sertan, Christian Gonzalez, DJ Turner, Quinion Mitchell, Derek Stingley, sauce Gardner.
90:48The open that's his first eight games. Like I can't buy that, man.
90:52I can't buy that. Like I can't buy that role.
90:55This situation. I would love that. Would love to buy the discount on these players.
90:59But man, like the setup for 2026 is just, it makes it really tough to grab those guys.
91:04At least Brian Thomas jr is a guy. I think you could sell me on having a stronger back half to 2026.
91:11Then start. But Marv was probably playing at Carson Beck at that point of the year.
91:15And it's hard for me to believe that, you know, he's going to bury me with Carson Beck.
91:20Like I outright think guys going after those guys, like Quinton Johnston is, has way more upside than both those guys.
91:27And like, people will probably bristle at that. Like Quinton Johnson, one had a really higher floor than anyone thinks he had last year.
91:33Before he got injured the first eight games, he was a top 30 score in six of the eight weeks.
91:39Like he was a very functional floor player. He wasn't just do something, make a big player, do nothing.
91:45He was good. He's, he's very suited after the catch in this offense.
91:48Like we brought up Concepcion. Uh, that I would rather just skip that little group, that grouping of guys that are ranked
91:55in mostly in a, or not ranked, but an ADP of like wide receiver, 30, 35, like DK Metcalf.
92:00I don't want DK Metcalf in any of my teams.
92:03Why would you willingly put DK Metcalf on your team?
92:06I'd rather have Michael Pittman. Like, I don't, I don't, you know, like, so it's like, and I'm not, I don't want either of those guys.
92:14Why am I one Steelers receivers? Skip them. I'm just skipping.
92:17Like I said, I'm just like skipping that guys.
92:19Like, so like when you talk about like draft approach, it's just large, like you brought up Quinton Sutton.
92:25I'm not drafting Cortland Sutton. You can't draft Cortland Sutton.
92:28You can't, right? That's where we were behind consensus.
92:30All our cheat sheets, it's all our rankings behind consensus on those guys.
92:34Here's a draft. I want to show you this.
92:37This is a draft where I did not select a receiver in the zone where you love selecting receivers.
92:42This is a tight end premium league, the staff league I did.
92:46And because of my draft position and because it was tight end premium and because of what happened and the value that
92:52fell to me at certain rounds, I was not able to execute on putting those, those wide receivers from the fertilist of territory on my roster.
92:59It's essentially an example of the type of roster that completely avoids all of those receivers.
93:04Because, you know, when I was picking, uh, I, I, I selected a dead zone running back at the five Oh seven,
93:10for example, and David Montgomery over McLaurin over Cornell Tate.
93:13And if I could do it over again, probably should have gone McLaurin.
93:17Yeah. McLaurin or Watson maybe, but, uh, you know, it's all, I mean, you guys let tight ends for a tight end
93:23premium kind of, play out a little bit lighter than FFPC does.
93:27I mean, Bowers is like one Oh six floor at FFPC.
93:30Loveland never makes the third round. No, I mean, how am I going to, I do it.
93:35I did my best. I got JSN, right. But then I knew I needed running back.
93:40Yeah. I can't be starved. We talked about not being starved running back, got Barkley and Swift.
93:44Well, you just don't want to build your running back room out of those guys that, that those, you don't want the
93:51whole running back room built out of those RB two guys, man.
93:54Like it's just, it's just a really tough tight rope to ride because this build is as close to a robust RB
94:01without technically being robust RB based on my definition.
94:03I went JSN, Barkley, Loveland, Swift, Montgomery, Lloyd, Michael Wilson, Caleb Williams, Mark Andrews, Wandale Robinson.
94:08When zero RB or anti-fragility had made its move, that boom in the early 2010s, you know, it came at just a
94:14big fulcrum point where the league was on the same page.
94:17We were on the spread offense, 11 personnel, boom.
94:20There were more wide receivers playing snaps. Targets were getting distilled at a greater degree where wide receivers were playing largely still
94:26one position and not moving around multiple positions. And you wanted wide receivers in your flexes because they scored more points than running backs.
94:33Uh, we are now in a little bit of a different area where the, um, 11 personnel is at the lowest point it's ever been.
94:40And not only is 11 personnel at the lowest points there have been like the pure slot receiver is almost an archaic
94:47archetype because teams are now moving their wide receiver ones around more because we want them to play Z.
94:52We want them to play slot. We can't have them stuck on the ball.
94:56And in totality, like wide receivers are just scoring fewer points, fewer points than they've ever been.
95:01So that's, what's made it hard to like say, cause I would love to go against the grain too, but like we're
95:08just in the wrong era and NFL offices aren't slowing this down.
95:11Like we we've seen what the offenses have or what teams have the way they've operated this off season.
95:16We had the most tight ends drafted in a draft since 20, uh, 2002.
95:20We've had the most tight ends invited to the combine ever.
95:24Uh, teams are talking about following this down the rabbit hole and to the point of the breaking point.
95:29And I just think the evolution of this is NFL offenses just want to have their cake and eat it too.
95:35You want to be able to come in and out of each set, right?
95:39Like, and that's going to be where I think that this thing goes where you're going to have one week where the Pittsburgh Steelers are 11 personnel team.
95:47And then the next week they might be a 12 personnel team and it's going to be maddening for fantasy gamers.
95:53But I think that's where the evolution's lying in team construction is.
95:57It's easier said than done. Cause like I said, you have your cake and eat it too.
96:02But I do believe that that's where it sets up to next, where you're able to just come in and out based
96:08on opponent, uh, of, of what personnel you're operating from.
96:11Harbaugh wants to do that. Clearly Harbaugh has been thinking about that.
96:14Uh, because if you look at what Jim Harbaugh has built in Los Angeles, it, it is a, it is a passing
96:21game that is devoid of big stars, but you've got lad McConkey who is a target earner, a major target earner.
96:27You've got a big play guy in Quinshawn Judkins.
96:29You get a guy that's a mix of both and Trey Harris.
96:33This isn't a top 10 talent profile for a receiving core, right?
96:36You could, I mean, you could argue they're not even top 20, right?
96:40There was a sub top 20 receiving core, but then you look at their tight end room.
96:45All of a sudden they've got every tight end profile you're looking for.
96:49They've got athletic blocking tight end in Charlie Kohler.
96:51They've got big athletic two way tight end athletic can block can do it all.
96:56And David, and David and Joku. And then they've got the traditional why move tight end in a Rondi Gadsden at the running back position.
97:03They've got a proper bell cow who can succeed in all phases of the football game.
97:08They've got a guy that is electric in space.
97:10And they've also got another guy that actually has an all purpose skill set in command of it all.
97:16So it's, they're one of those teams that can conceal what they want to do as well as anybody.
97:21And that's the chargers. That's why I'm waiting to see how this plays out because a lot of people are just projecting the chargers, like the dolphins, right?
97:29Like they're doing the one, a one B coordinator game, but the Miami dolphins were completely top heavy roster.
97:35Like the every year McDaniel was there. Like they didn't have the versatility of this charger team does.
97:40So I don't want to just protect project to the chargers, like the dolphins, right?
97:44Where they're running the same static, you know, personnel sets, uh, the same guys around the field.
97:49I think there could be a larger rotation. Cause even there, the receivers are even deeper than the Miami dolphin receivers were.
97:55Cause you know, he handpicked a guy like Brennan Thompson, a guy like, and Herbert hasn't had a guy like Brennan Thompson, probably ever.
98:02Jalen Guyton's the closest thing he's had. And if anyone remembers the throw, he had the jail and guy in against the
98:09giants three years ago, like, man, we're, I just give you one of those to Brennan Thompson this year.
98:14Cause he's not going to play a lot, but you know, the rotation, you got Trey Harris who can, who can play
98:21in the run game and also be a guy that can win the contested catch game.
98:25Trey Harris going to lead this team in, in, in wide receiver snaps.
98:29They're just a lot deeper than the Miami teams were.
98:32So I'm waiting to see like how they decided to deploy this.
98:35Um, because I think it could look a lot different and then, you know, maybe he doesn't though.
98:40Maybe he just does the Shanahan thing, right? Cause Shanahan has been guilty of this, uh, by proxy to Shanahan's had deep rosters where he hasn't maxed out.
98:49And Shanahan knows more about offensive football than I ever will, but he's had a lot of versatile, versatile guys that he
98:55just hasn't got gotten on the field to a great degree because this is the system he runs, right?
99:00Uh, this, this season is going to be a great litmus test for that because is it going to be this thing?
99:07Like Devon Stribbling played no snaps and one to two wide receiver sets in preseason.
99:11Um, and we didn't see Mike Evans. We didn't see Chris McCaffrey.
99:14We didn't see Kyle use check. We didn't see George Kittle.
99:18And since Kyle Shanahan has been with the 49ers, they're 31st in the NFL and 11 personnel rate.
99:23So what's going to give, what's going to give besides Mike Evans quads, like what, what gives, right?
99:28Like what, like you're not drafting Stribbling. It sounds like you're not drafting Stribbling.
99:32Well, I mean, I have him on, I was, I have so much Stribbling from pre-draft and when he was a value
99:38that I'm just not going to chase him up the ladder.
99:42But yeah, man, I mean, this is, this is quite an iron price to now pay.
99:46You're like, yeah, yeah, man. I like how you're like, yeah, man, you're a 49ers fan.
99:51And I, when he was drafted, I gave him a nickname.
99:54I said, I can see it coming a mile away.
99:57Cause I was Alex and Cody were telling me all about his tape.
100:01You know? Yeah. I liked him. I liked him as a prospect.
100:04I think the SEC, they're like, this guy's doing this against high level competition.
100:08Look at some, look at some of those yards after the cash.
100:12Look at some of these spectacular catches. This guy's a dynamic playmaker.
100:15And I'm like, I have no doubt. I have no doubt that he's a dynamic playmaker.
100:20And now he has the draft capital and he's going to a Shanahan.
100:23This screams swindle. There's going to be an ADP swindle on this guy.
100:27He's swindling. He's Dijon swindling. That's what he is.
100:30It's going to be the great swindle because you're, you're not going to be able to follow up the ladder.
100:36It's exactly what's going to happen. It's going to be that wet rope and you can never grip it.
100:41It's just going to keep getting higher. You can't get there.
100:44He's going to go higher than Cardinal Tate in some drafts like this weekend.
100:48Oh yeah. Oh yeah. No doubt. It's silly. It's just, it's absolutely silly.
100:52And I love how you were like, Oh, I got him and I pulled up the ladder.
100:57I'm good. Oh yeah. Like, I mean, yeah, I don't need any more shriveling.
101:01Thank you very much. I have a tweet where I got up in the fourth round of two rookie drafts before the draft, uh, before the NFL draft.
101:09And then even as silly went to the 49ers, there was like a lot of backlash because the other speculation is like,
101:15people are like, well, he's going to do this to prove a point, but here's the, here's the kicker, right?
101:21So since 2000, there've been 14 other receivers other than stripling.
101:24He's the 15th who have been selected in the opening two rounds, the NFL draft who have a lower than 50 percentile,
101:31a career production score in my model. Those players are McCall Hardman, Xavier Leggett, Curtis Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, Christian Watson, Jeremy Bernard,
101:37who joins that list this year, Jack Bash, Van Jefferson, Kadarius Toney, Adonai Mitchell, Dante Pettis, Henry Ruggs, Jonathan Mingo, and Alec Pierce.
101:44He becomes the third Shanahan receiver though. This is the third time Shanahan's done this.
101:48Oh no, They have a fascination with this. It's him and Lynch too.
101:52I actually, I put a lot of blame on Lynch.
101:55You can, you could just the, the looks that Shanahan gives Lynch now, like they, they do not get along.
102:00Uh, and for good reason, if you kept just betraying me every time the NFL draft happens, I would start to get very angry about it.
102:08Uh, there, there, there's certain types of players that they just happen to love.
102:12And I, and when they get drafted in the first round, it's funny, like we kind of know their busts, but something happens in preseason.
102:19And then some, and then some, and then it usually there, there's some bulls case gets weaved.
102:24If you're getting drafted in the first round, the guy where, if I was betting my life to get one, right on
102:30your list, it would have been Canarius Tony, Canarius Tony.
102:33when the pick came in was the one guy that I can't remember any smart person being able to come up with
102:40anything that would justify that guy at that pick.
102:42And it just so happened to be the end of a regime.
102:46One of the worst regimes in the history of NFL general managing in New York.
102:50I mean, it's just like, I mean, I, I can't make a case, a strong case, like why you would take stripling over like Kevin Concepcion.
102:58Like, I just can't, like I said, I got plenty of stripling.
103:01I'm good. Bags are packed. I hope he hits.
103:04This is not me trying to tear him down.
103:06It's just like, we can't pay like top 36 receiver prices for a guy who, when the 49ers are fielding their offense
103:13that they want to run, is at best the fourth target and maybe the fifth target in the offense.
103:18Right? Like that's, that's unaccounting for whatever they're doing with Debo Samuel this season.
103:22And I get it. Like this would be like, and I, you want to bet on the guy that, you know, if
103:28you're going to bet on this profile, it'd be attached to Purdy, attached to Shanahan, attached to all these receivers that are
103:3530 years plus and have this injury history, but you can't chase it up the board.
103:39That's the problem. And that's like what we're doing with it.
103:43It's a John Lynch pick, just like Cadareous Tony was a Dave Gettleman pick.
103:47It's, it's a problem, dude. It's, it's, it's a problem to figure out what his snap share is going to be.
103:53Like I said, zero, zero snaps and one, two wide receiver sets in the preseason.
103:57Even the, the one sampling we saw Purdy play, Samuel and Demarcus Robinson played over him.
104:02Although he did get some targets from Purdy. So targets better than snaps, but also Mike Evans, Chris McCaffrey and George Kittle weren't playing.
104:08Those guys are going to get targets. He was one of the healthy players they had.
104:13So of course he's going to command a bunch of targets in these preseason games.
104:17Who else are they going to throw to? I'm good.
104:20Where did you guys move him to? Like, I'm good.
104:23I had someone that wanted to unsub because I didn't rank him high enough.
104:27Really? I swear to God, I swear to God this happened.
104:30I got email. They're like, you're not updating your rankings.
104:33We've been behind consensus on him all year and I'm fine with it.
104:37And see, I was ahead early. Like I was ahead for rookies and stuff.
104:41But like, to me, he feels very Quinton Johnston, very Xavier worthy, very fringy, speculative, flawed player, Romeo Dobbs.
104:47That's the zone we have him in. We have him at wide receiver 49.
104:51Yeah. Yeah. Is that fair? Yeah, I think so.
104:53But he's going way higher than that at this point.
104:56I mean, obviously, but like, what are you going to, those people are insane.
105:00It's, it's, I find it weird that there's just, there's so much arbitrary analysis and certain players will get arbitrary.
105:06You see this with a Jeremiah love, right? Where just because he was a first round pick top five pick, he gets posted somewhere.
105:13Then a guy will fall because he gets injured or something happens.
105:16And then he's back in a hundred percent, but you'll notice not back at the same ADP.
105:21Right. And then, and there is the reveal of the arbitrary nature, the, the, the sort of flimsy rationale that, that, that supports a lot of these things.
105:29Yeah. I always, I find it. I, it's my favorite exercise is to go through and be like, you know, these two
105:36players are very similar, you know, fundamental. Oh yeah.
105:38So why are, why is one being treated as if he's unassailable and another is being treated like he's, you know, has
105:45a scarlet letter and he's obviously not someone serious people or people that know what they're doing or drafting.
105:50And I always find myself being like, I don't know why you're tearing player X down, but you're not giving player Y.
105:56These are very similar. You were talking about players that are the same age.
106:00Some of these players, the same age, same draft capital.
106:03And it's like, no. Okay, cool. With like stripling, it's all so based on this guy was the guy.
106:09He had this basically an attention bias where there was no one else to focus on in this passing game.
106:15Everyone else is hurt. He's making plays. He does have the draft capital.
106:18He does fun. And you want to get him reps.
106:21Now you want to get him reps. It's like, of course, if I were, I, he's an exciting player.
106:27I like him, but then there are these other exciting players that I like that are, I think are in similar situations
106:33that just don't get buzz at all. It's like, they don't know why, why would anyone care about them?
106:39Like Adonai Mitchell, finally, finally getting some of that, like where I did the dichotomy, like, so Matthew golden, we're an idiot
106:45because we're two rounds behind consensus and best ball on Matthew golden, but we're two rounds ahead of consensus on Adonai Mitchell.
106:51And I'm like, these guys are the same age.
106:54They went to the same school. They had the same production.
106:57One guy's actually having a better, more laudable camp.
107:00And that's Adonai Mitchell. Even a guy like Kayshawn booty, Kayshawn booty is only 23 years old, but he's being treated like he's dust.
107:07He's worthless. Now. I love Kayshawn booty. I think he's in a great situation.
107:11Was I paying the Jaden Higgins price for the wide receiver to on a run first team?
107:15No, but now if I, if I get to get Kayshawn booty, wherever we have met wide receiver 61, he's going later
107:22than that, but do the math on Kayshawn booty, man.
107:25Yeah, that's where I'm at 59. I'm at 59 with him.
107:28So right in that ballpark. Yeah. I mean, you just want Nico Collins.
107:32So definitely want Nico Collins. If you had to choose between say Cyrus Allen and Jacoby lane, who would you go with?
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108:23Consult a healthcare professional. If symptoms persist, probably a little, probably lane.
108:27I'm struggling with Alan the same way of stripling.
108:29Like who does he thwart? Who does he get on the field over?
108:33Um, and I, I could make a case that he should play over worthy, but I don't think the chiefs are going to make that case.
108:41Um, I don't think Xavier worthy is not going to not play a lot.
108:45And where she rice is definitely gonna play a lot.
108:47I think the rookie for me is Ted Hearst where we're so far ahead on Ted Hearst.
108:52Yeah. I mean, he's had the doors open. Um, McMillan and egg Buka have been hurt like this entire preseason.
108:58Right. But, but for me, but that's the thing.
109:01It's like, he, it's same story, but for whatever reason, arbitrarily, he's not treated like stripling, right?
109:06He's a better player. He was a better prospect.
109:08He's been making as many wow factor plays in preseason as stripling.
109:12And there's a nice path for him, even in two receiver sets and the, the players ahead of him, especially, uh, Buka.
109:18I, McMillan, I think is back and fine, but a Buka has what is likely a chronic injury.
109:23Even Mike Evans injury isn't necessarily chronic. So that's, that's a great example of just the arbitrary nature of which players get buzz and why, especially rookies.
109:31It's so, and that's where I'm like, okay, I'm not paying that for stripling because when I, if I want a guy
109:37with that profile, I can get him later. Right.
109:40One guy that arbitrarily, I think just his, his ADP doesn't match what I believe should be like his, his easy baseline
109:46projection, a very easy projectable player with a very little speculation in his projection is a guy like Rashid Shahid, where the
109:53only thing that's happened with Rashid Shahid is that now there's been less competition for targets because Horton has been out for
109:59the majority of preseason and things are consolidated. It's not like they have a big time playmaker at tight end.
110:05Their running back room is completely wide open. No one knows what the opportunity share breakdown is going to be in Seattle.
110:11The only thing we know for a fact is death taxes and JSN targets, but is JSN going to get a 60%?
110:18No, of course not. So to me, it's like, there's some upside there with Rashid Shahid and he's kind of an exciting,
110:24dynamic player, but no one drafts him. No one wants to talk about him.
110:28Yeah. I mean, it's, he's, he's kind of like fair.
110:31He's a good player. It's tough to just know like, you know, how much pass volume you get.
110:36And he's not onboarding this year, right? Like the thing was he, he onboarded onto a train, a moving train last year
110:42and just never was, you know, like really acclimated into the, getting a lot of targets in the offense.
110:48Now you get a fresh start, new offensive coordinator, new contract.
110:51He's going to be in the base offense. And it's, that's probably why the buzz going, been going around on him a
110:57little bit that he's making a little bit. It's just hard to kind of diagnose like, there's buzz on Rashid Shahid.
111:03Yeah. He said, there's been a lot of positive buzz about his, his, his camp.
111:08No, but in fantasy. No, no. I'm just saying, no, no.
111:11Okay. I was like, Oh my God, was there an article written?
111:14Did someone, actually someone likes this guy? What? No, I think they're just looking at, but I mean, I like him a
111:21little bit just for the fact that we don't know where like the, the, the median for JSN lies, because I've made
111:27this comp before his season last year was he's this year, Saquon Barkley.
111:31Like we just don't like, he had such a C he had such an outlier season that even if you believe in
111:37the talent, like we still know that's just unreplicable.
111:40Like the season he had is unreplicable. He shattered, he shattered so many records.
111:44He was the first player ever in the Superbowl era to lead the NFL in receiving guards, playing for a team that was bottom three and pass rate.
111:52He has the most yards per team pass attempt in any player in my database.
111:56But that, but that's all going up. The pass rates going up because there's another year of install with Sam Donald and the offense.
112:03I'm talking about Sam Donald is now fully acclimated.
112:06It's his team. Well, it's his team. I mean, these are all like, he's played for all these coaches.
112:11Anyways, he played for Brian Flurry already. Just watching hard knocks.
112:14Like he's not, he, he, he knows this offense, like whether it's a new coordinator or not with a guy like Sam
112:21Donald, just like you said, it doesn't matter. No, put this dude in a gold jacket already.
112:26like just the season. It was like Saquon's year, the first year to Eagles.
112:30Like it was just the perfect intersection of everything going right.
112:33And the opportunity and the long touchdown runs. And like, we knew there was going to be regression last year.
112:39And sometimes regression works in weird ways. And you have like the situation that happened to Saquon.
112:43I don't know if it's going to be like that for JSN, but like, it's totally possible.
112:48Like Jason still comes back with like 1200 yards and like seven touchdowns.
112:52And we're like, eh, eh, like, cause he's goes to where he's being drafted.
112:56We don't know is all I'm saying. Like he, but like for him to run back all of his efficiency metrics, like it just can't, it's just unattainable.
113:04It's just not. Rashichi, he's interesting. Yeah. I mean, he becomes interesting as part of that.
113:09Like that conversation. Like I said, what about wide receiver that is in that Cortland Sutton zone?
113:14You drafting anyone in that zone? Oh yeah. Just QJ is the only guy like in that area.
113:19What about Chris Godwin? Uh, sometimes the, the, I'm usually trying to fill when I get to Godwin's ADP and I don't, I'm not, uh, I like Godwin.
113:27Um, I like the setup. I believe the bucks are going to be a little bit of a pass for like their front seven is awesome.
113:35The backend looks pretty weak. Uh, so they can get coaxed into like some old, like lions esque, like a run out.
113:41But by the time I'm Godwin is usually going off the board, I'm typically taking more ceiling plays at that point.
113:47That's the only reason I don't have a lot of them.
113:50I'm not anti Godwin. It's just, like I said, I'm taking conception.
113:54I'm taking Quentin Johnston at that point. Like I'm just swinging for a little more, like tacking guys onto my bench with a little more juice.
114:01Uh, but I'm not anti Godwin. Concepcion is that guy for us.
114:05Like we're in complete lockstep with conception. I would say if I needed though, if like I say, like I hadn't been
114:11drafting, like I've been this off season and I'm at the point where I still need starting wide receivers and a PPR
114:17league, he would be, then he would become more of a priority for me in those builds.
114:22Yeah. yeah. I mean, I think I'm trying to look at, look back at what happened to me.
114:27Uh, yes. So remember I did that bill, that team that you just showed you.
114:32He'd been the absolute perfect seventh round pick. Yeah.
114:34A hundred percent. Yeah. In my build, but he went in the sixth round.
114:38He went, someone grabbed him before a dunes, a in Watson and Brian Thomas and conception coach grabbed conception.
114:44And then, so I'm like, okay, there's no conception.
114:46I get, I'm going to go Michael Wilson. You know, that's it.
114:50You know, after that it's Jaden Reed, Josh downs, guys like that.
114:53Then right after that, freaking, then you're into stripling.
114:56Look at, look at this, like stripling Metcalf, Jordan, Addison, Alec Pierce, Debo Samuel.
115:00Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. It's tricky with guys like Godwin, guys like Josh downs.
115:04There is some upside there. They have some dynamism.
115:07They can break tackles and score touchdowns. I would be more inclined to just take the younger player and downs and see where it goes.
115:14But that's the only thing. Like I'm not, like I said, it's your, it's just more or less how I've been building
115:20my teams this year, where I'm more gravitating to like, to saying like, if I'm going to take this guy on the
115:27bench, I'm going to go for a little juice.
115:29That's kind of just how I've been drafted. You agree though.
115:32Like when it comes to Jalen Waddell, he, his, his, he could get, he could get to the mid tier wide receiver one.
115:39Yeah. I mean, there's not like, you could tell me six to eight of those guys in that range.
115:44That's why I've been trying to draft as many guys in that pocket as possible.
115:49I definitely think there's an outcome where we come back in February from the 10,000 foot view.
115:54And if you got that section of wide receiver, right, you kind of smashed.
115:58It was very much like that last year. Now last year, it just wasn't driven because the RB ones did, did so much lifting last year.
116:05But like George Pickens was that guy last year.
116:08I mean, if you got like George Pickens was a big Turner, like if you were on the right side of that
116:14coin of George Pickens versus like Lad McConkie, and like, it was a big swing for you.
116:19It was a big swing. And you know, like where Tet was going last year, right?
116:24Ricky Pierce all was being drafted at that point last year.
116:27And if you were on the George Pickens spot, like you had a significantly different outcome that for your roster.
116:33And I think when we come back and in February and we look at, you know, Lad, Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddell, DJ
116:39Moore, Tee Higgins, Tett McMillan, Christian Watson, Luther Byrd and Jamison Williams, we're going to look back and say, all right, who, who, who are the thumpers?
116:47Who, who did you get? Did you get the right?
116:50Yeah. And yeah, yeah. You can extend it out to like Rome, Parker, Washington as well.
116:54But like, who are the thumpers, right? Who are the thumpers you got out of that group?
116:59Cause they're going to be misses. Like, and there's going to be injuries.
117:03Like guys will get hurt out of that. You can even, who do you?
117:07Okay. Just tell it, just tell us, man of that group.
117:10Who do you think is the best, highest probability of being a thumper?
117:14I would have them from like, from like a ceiling perspective.
117:17I would have only. Yeah, first I would have just ceiling only.
117:20I would have Waddle McConkie, probably burden Christian Watson like that.
117:24That's or, or T Higgins. Absolutely. Should I cross over T Higgins?
117:27No, no T Higgins. That doesn't can. I don't think T Higgins is in this.
117:31He's a little bit higher, but he goes like wide receiver 20 though.
117:35Like it's, he's not being drafted. He's being drafted.
117:38Garrett Wilson. I was talking to John Paulson loves Garrett Wilson.
117:41Yeah. So my thing is in, you know, I, I'm already, I've already given this jets take, not to you, but to other people.
117:48Like the jets are very fun to me. I think the jets could be a really fun team, but I'm going to
117:54do the D I'm going to play through the jets through DFS, because I just think when you look at the jets of a Mr.
118:01Jet, but the problem is from a season long stance, they got that week 13 by, and there's just no way they
118:08like very thin way that they have enough wins to justify not playing Klaid Kubik, the final month of the year.
118:14And I just believe when it's fantasy crunch time, I don't want to deal with that.
118:18It's just too much variance for me, but because they have to have for them not to be staring on the gun
118:25barrel of this 20, 27 QB class and them using that pick on clay.
118:29Like they have to start him. At some point.
118:31And I think that them having that week 13 by like, it's a perfect onboard for them to just say, Hey, we got three wins right now.
118:39Finish this thing up, Clay. And like, then I'm like, shit, man, are my Brees hall bags or my Garrett Wilson bags
118:46or my Adonai Mitchell bags, like all in jeopardy when it's fantasy money time.
118:50Here's the thing. Here's the thing. We're behind consensus on Brees hall, but I'm going to play a lot of jets stacks and DFS early on.
118:57If Gino is the quarterback, you're playing them in DFS.
119:00Yes. That is absolutely a rule. You need to be playing him.
119:03He's going to be playing out there with a cigarette.
119:06It's going to be Gino Cutler all year. It's going to be fantastic.
119:10It's going to be absolutely fantastic. And if you just get weeks one through 12 of Adonai Mitchell, that's a win.
119:16And as ADP, that's a win. But at Garrett Wilson, but at Garrett Wilson, it's not.
119:21Right. Garrett Wilson. We're at consensus. So we're behind consensus on Brees hall at consensus with a guy like Garrett Wilson, because
119:27if I give Gino Smith full 17 game projection, Garrett Wilson looks like a top 10 receiver.
119:32That's the problem is the problem is you can't, you can't tell me that that's a bad team.
119:37That's the thing. You know, Oh, you can't drive Garrett.
119:40I thought you were below consensus on every bad team.
119:43Well, that's not it. Well, okay. So it's not true with, with Garrett Wilson, because I don't think consider that a bad, I consider this an offense.
119:51I want exposure to. Well, they're also the bad team that could be like from a win perspective that maybe they don't
119:57give the ceiling to Brees hall, but they're also the bad win team from like a talent perspective paired to the defense
120:03that could be fun from a statistical lens where it's like, it's harder to get there for like the Raiders and the Cardinal.
120:10We have our grievances because we do, we work so hard for subscribers, but some of them are complaining about where you
120:16have stripling or sometimes they say that, you know, you guys are too close to consensus in the first, in the top 50, right?
120:23You guys are, you guys don't take any chances.
120:26Right. I thought, but I thought you were super bullish on Garrett Wilson and the jets.
120:31But I think the, the mark, that's a testament to the market though, being better.
120:35Like that's the thing. It's like, what do you want us to do?
120:39Like, what do you want us to do? Like I get, yeah, I love him, but I think it's pretty fair where we have him, man.
120:46I mean, just, I think the market just adjusts so much better.
120:50The consumer is so much smarter. Like we talked about when this season opened, we talked about it.
120:55You could get Puka and chase and come back and get Kenneth Walker in the second round.
121:00That doesn't exist anymore. Uh, but it took, it took while for the consumer to get there as well.
121:05Also, but yeah. And I'm like, listen, we have a book up, you know, behind McConkie and waddle.
121:10Be happy about that. Yeah. We have Jeremiah love, uh, behind Deandre Swift.
121:14Like we've, we've taken plenty of shots in the top 50, but strategically like snipers where we know we had the data supporting us.
121:21Some of this other stuff where it's just, would just be heat for heat sake.
121:25And I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to, I'm not going to vault a guy 20 spots.
121:31That's not going to happen. Like where we have Michael Wilson is ahead of consensus, but not crazy.
121:36No. And like, I know someone in chat saw with that Cardinals like that.
121:40We just ran through the Cardinal schedule. Like it's so hard.
121:44And like what the run out that they had last year, where they just had the most, like they had 700 dropbacks.
121:50Like that's not the type of football they're going to play this year too.
121:54Uh, in that offense, like, I mean, I could see like a path to where like they're more functional, but it's not
122:00going to be the same type of fantasy ceiling.
122:03Those guys offered because they're just not going to play the same type of game scripts.
122:08Even being a losing team. And then like I said, they just get dragged in the schedule.
122:12They play nothing but Superbowl contenders. The first three months of the year.
122:16Exactly. And I like, and then if you, there's sometimes there's a case to be made like, Oh, offensive line.
122:22No, they're, they're bottom half of the league and offensive line.
122:25That's why we have the offensive line ranking. So I'm looking for reasons guys.
122:29I'm looking for reasons, but do you know where we do take big shots?
122:33Rich is in like picks 100 through 150 where, where three rounds ahead of consensus on a Braylon Allen.
122:39Well, this is, so this is probably the difference between you guys and other platforms.
122:43Do you guys do anything for like fantasy pros or any of the rankings contests?
122:47No, exactly. So this is the thing that the consumers miss.
122:51So there's a difference between ranking to win a rankings contest and like ranking to like subscribe to like actionable fantasy advice.
122:57Right? Like we, I, we just had conversations with JJ on his show about like having Terrence Ferguson ranked ahead of Jake Ferguson.
123:04Right. From a, so, so a typical rankings though, we'll have Jake Ferguson higher because he's probably going to outscore him like
123:10a tip token thing, but like Jake Ferguson doesn't do anything to help your fantasy football team win fantasy football games.
123:16Then the outcome where Terrence Ferguson is a lower hit probability, but the outcomes where he hits, he advances your team.
123:22Oh, he could hit in a huge way. I was very upset during our draft.
123:26Coach convinced me that I was going to be able to get Terrence Ferguson in the next round.
123:32So I went around a Gadsden and I was going to go, I said, I want to, I want to go back to back tight ends.
123:39And he convinced me I was going to get Terrence Ferguson.
123:42And then he knew all along that he wanted to try to get him.
123:46And so I was completely, I was lampooned for, for tape.
123:49It even, like I said, John Paulson even chimed in.
123:52He's like a Rondé Gadsden there in this economy.
123:55And I'm like, but I was trying to get both guys.
123:58Like I, of course I wanted Ferguson. Yes. God.
124:01And so I look like an idiot, but those are two examples of David and Joku pops a quad.
124:06Like it's on with a Rondé Gadsden. Right. But it's even more on potentially if things break right for Terrence Ferguson.
124:12But as I say, like, but people that, that do rankings for rankings contests are by default going to always rank guys
124:19that just outright project to score more points higher, but that don't influence your rosters.
124:23JK Dobbins is a great example. It's a race to the median.
124:26It's just a race to the median. Like JK Dobbins isn't going to really help us.
124:31Like there may, there's very specific builds he could help, but like by and large, like he's not going to influence the fantasy season.
124:38Like, so you're going to want to shoot with some guys that, you know, like, like maybe like a Keaton Mitchell or
124:44something like, yeah, he's probably not going to score as many points as him, but in the outcomes where he does, he
124:51influences, he, he changes the, he manipulates the fantasy season to a greater degree.
124:55And that's tougher to the consumer. Cause the consumer doesn't know that the consumer doesn't know that your rankings things for a contest.
125:01Like it's a different game in itself, but you know, it's, it's kind of, it's very freeing when you don't have to
125:08rank for the rankings contest because you can then provide more actionable advice.
125:11Yeah. Like for example, like Bradley Stalder competes in the fantasy rankings contest, Billy Muzio won everything, right?
125:17We have our bona fides. We're done. We're good.
125:19And our site rankings certainly are not going to be submitted to that because it actually would, would hurt fantasy gamers.
125:25It would hurt subscribers if we did that for that exact reason.
125:29Right. It would, because I want you having exposure to Braylon Allen.
125:32And the rub is, is it's such a brand builder.
125:35Cause I did it when I was at Roto world, you know, Hey man, look at me.
125:40I finished here in rankings. Some comes, but it's such a, it's such a brand builder.
125:45Oh yeah. Like where we have Mike Washington is very bullish.
125:48Yeah. Because, because if he hits, it's going to change the fantasy season.
125:51It's yeah. Yeah. I mean, wait, you have Emmett Johnson ranked ahead of Travis Kelsey.
125:56Yeah. But Emmett Johnson, you haven't projected for 60 less fantasy points.
125:59Yeah. Yeah. Okay. We're trying to win. If you're trying to win, try to win now.
126:04Yeah. We're trying to win. Inside the top 100.
126:06The problem is a lot of these guys, they actually have high upside outcomes and good median projections.
126:12Correct. A guy that comes to mind is Dalton Kincaid.
126:15Dalton Kincaid looks on the surface to be a median projection guy.
126:18But then when you dig in, you realize he's never been really as healthy as he's been this year.
126:23And the setup for him, is so perfect in Buffalo that I consider him much more like a Ferguson with what you're, he's basically a double Ferguson.
126:31If you put Jake Ferguson and Terrence Ferguson together and made a hybrid player, it would be Dalton Kincaid.
126:37The double Ferguson. That's a double Ferguson. It's everything you're getting with Jake and everything you're getting with Terrence and one guy.
126:43And I don't mean to drag Jake Ferguson. Like he would be a fine player if he was just, but you agree with me.
126:50Like, no, uh, with Kincaid. Yeah. Kincaid. Yeah. I mean, there's so many.
126:54So Kincaid in general, like we know the efficiency there, the proper opportunity stuff.
126:58So he's been there. His problem has been like Christian Watson, just staying on the field, but we know where the upside lies.
127:04He worked with Derek Samuel this off season. Um, it was, we talked about this earlier.
127:09That's where I got to feel like I'm inceptioning myself.
127:12I think we talked about this early on the show.
127:15Cause you know, no, we won't. Here's the thing.
127:17We are inceptioning ourselves and I love the inception reference.
127:20I repeat, by the way, they're trying to get the sequel made in this, having the sequel made is almost like the movie itself.
127:27And that, Oh, you're talking about edge of tomorrow.
127:30Yeah. Edge of tomorrow. They keep resetting it. They can't get this movie made.
127:34They just can't get the movie made. And then they, they get to a point where they're about to make the movie
127:40and then it resets back to the beginning and they have to start all over again, finding a location and everything.
127:46So it's like getting it made is the, is basically becomes the premise of the, of the movie itself, which that is the definition of irony.
127:54So you love that. But we know he got, but so we do the thing guys in the best shape of their life season, right?
128:01This time of year. Yes. But I want to let you know that, yes, you are having a form of deja vu
128:07that is sort of faux deja vu in that we did talk about, we did talk about people going to this elite
128:14trainer to get healthy, but we talked about it in the context of Jordan Tyson needing that he needs to talk to
128:20Dalton Kincaid and get that guy's phone number. Yeah.
128:23But it, it Matt, like a guy like get it, like a guy like Dalton Kincaid getting his play strength up.
128:29It actually is significant because those have been the roads blocks for him because he's been stuck and not being able to
128:35contribute in 12 personnel to contribute in the run game.
128:38Not that he's ever going to be a good blocker, but if he can just increase that rate and just raise his opportunities, then that opens up door.
128:46It's very small sample. We saw him play 75% 12 personnel rate in the small sample this preseason.
128:51It seems like they want to give him the opportunity at least this year.
128:55And then there are just multiple avenues. I think for this Buffalo bills seem to throw more than they have.
129:01Obviously McDermott's gone. Uh, they bring in Pete Carmichael, you know, um, the Buffalo bills have a DJ more and a healthier
129:07Dalton Kincaid, a healthier Khalil Shakir could push them to throw more.
129:11They have a harder schedule than they have had in previous years.
129:14And they have a new defense. They have a new defensive coordinator.
129:18And I think their defense is good. And Jim Leonard, it's a good hire, but there's just another variable is all I'm saying for them to throw more.
129:26Um, it's, I'm very bullish on, you know, uh, you know, Josh Allen still bullish and keeping the candle lit for DJ
129:32more, where he goes to the back of that range.
129:35And then Dalton Kade, where he goes, it's just like, again, you look at guys like DJ more, Christian Watson, Dalton Kade,
129:41the room is telling you, well, we kind of think that they're around here, but we're still out.
129:47But it's just like, like those are the, those are the biggest profit margins you can make in fans.
129:52Well, and we talked about a lot of a last year, like, well, we think this guy's good, but he hasn't been good the last couple of years.
130:00So we don't want him anymore. Like, you know, eventually it's going to intersect.
130:04And I think for Kincaid, he has the largest setup for it to intersect.
130:08Uh, I think Christian Watson's that way this year too.
130:11It's all on paper for it to intersect and all of it to, to be right where it should be.
130:17So. Yeah. Yeah. Christian Watson's a great example where, yeah, we could be 10 spots ahead.
130:22We're just five spots ahead of consensus. And I think that's perfectly fine.
130:25I'll get you out of here, man. Cause I, my dog's barking.
130:29He's like, Hey, I let you do. Like, I know dogs barking.
130:32I, we, we get, did you have a bold prediction for us?
130:36I know you don't do bold predictions. Do you have anything to close it out?
130:40Talk about where they can find your content. Give us one crazy take that you might have.
130:45And I'll get you the hell out of here.
130:47Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm going to, I'm going to still stick with my bold prediction from last show, which that was Josh
130:54Jones is going to outscore Rasheed Rice, which I said in April.
130:57And then I'll just give you a football one.
131:00My deep cut to win the Superbowl is the Houston Texans.
131:03And then I'll just give you a football one.
131:06My deep cut to win the Superbowl is the Houston Texans.
131:09Things are lining up so well for Jameer Gibbs.
131:11I think this might be the best situation in the history of fantasy.
131:15Not happening, brother. Not happening. Brian Thomas Jr. Overtraiment.
131:18Not happening. It's impossible to find a quarterback. That's more check downy than Tua.
131:22When else did he, wait, when else did he do it?
131:25If we're measuring information delivered efficiently and correctly, you're number one.
131:28And that's empirical. I'm telling you that's empirical. That is something that I have witnessed personally, bar by bar, decibel by decibel.
131:34And you guys want to talk about injuries. You guys want to talk about bite marks.
131:39Fine. A single bad player or excuse me. Sorry.
131:42No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Wait, this is not what I'm saying.
131:46That is like a single player on a bad team that we can get behind his cost.
131:51He's going to go higher than Cardinal Tate in some drafts like this weekend.
131:55Whoa, there's buzz on Rashid Shahid. Yeah. He said there's been a lot of positive buzz about his, him's his camp.
132:01No, but in fantasy. No, no. I'm saying in camp, like, no, no.
132:05Okay. I was like, Oh my God. Was there an article written?
132:08Did someone actually, someone likes this guy? What? Are you saying it's, it's conceivable, reasonable to go McCaffrey over Bijan?
132:14I'm trying to follow this to our logical conclusion.
132:16If you, if I, so yes, if you, if you knew he was playing 17 games, I think you would make that case, right?
132:23Like one place, the Atlanta Falcons, that it's probably going to start multiple quarterbacks.
132:27They're both left-handed. Yes. Yes. Which left-handed quarterbacks suck.
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