Mind of Mansion - Bhayshul Tuten + Brian Thomas Jr. Slapfest

Sutton has come to terms with the fact that he will have less targets and less opportunity this year to score fantasy points and touchdowns. The downstream effect of the Broncos trading for Jalen Waddle is that his days as a top-36 fantasy receiver are probably over.

Rariton is a super-athletic, big, seam-stretching tight end who contributes to the Chargers' philosophy of being one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. While he probably won't contribute in weeks 1-3, by midway through the season his routes should tick up, and by end of year, if he's the long-term starter plan, he'll be contributing in a meaningful way to fantasy lineups.

Matt Kelley would not select Garrett Wilson in the Scott Fishbowl league despite his availability. Wilson is not particularly dynamic or explosive, has never been a good yards-after-catch producer, and is not good in yards per route run. Kelley describes him as a peak possession receiver without the juice needed to capitalize on the big-play bonus structure (10 points for 20+ yard receptions).

Dulcich is the best outright pass catcher on the Dolphins and likely leads the team in targets among wide receivers and tight ends. At current prices, he's the best bet remaining on the board for pure volume in a format where volume matters more for tight ends, though the long arc of history is not favorable to guys who do nothing for a long period of time.

Harold Fannin's projection in the Scott Fishbowl league is gigantic due to the big-play bonus structure (10 points for 20+ yard receptions), but he faces uncertainty regarding Casey Concepcion's quality, Jerry Judy's remaining production, and the Cardinals' quarterback situation with multiple QBs expected throughout the season. His projection is close enough to receivers like George Pickens, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson that safer receiver options may be preferable.

Dobbins is the team captain and the player the Broncos talk about most alongside Jalen Waddle. He's a size-speed specimen who has been dealing with bad knees but has had injections and surgeries, and is showing up for the first time this year not rehabbing any injuries, looking pretty explosive in early practices. Matt Kelley drafted J.K. Dobbins at pick 1208 in a half-PPR, all-flex, super-flex startup, indicating confidence in his value at that draft position in a format where running backs are premium.

Waddle's yards per route run and targets per route run comps very closely to DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers, and Devonta Smith—players who have been given chances to be their team's wide receiver one. He set the receptions record as a rookie when he had the opportunity to be Miami's WR1 on a bad Dolphins team. Now with Denver, he has his best opportunity to consolidate targets in a functioning offense with him as the clear WR1. He has demonstrated versatility across multiple offensive styles: as a rookie on a bad Dolphins team he was a low-ADOT checkdown merchant with 142 targets; under Tyreek Hill he shifted to a hyper-efficient field-stretching role; he has put up 1,300+ air yards in two seasons and sub-900 air yards in others, with yards per reception ranging from 18.1 to 9.8, showing he can be deployed wherever the team needs him.

Matt Kelley expects Jeremiah Love to lead the Cardinals in carries over Tyler Algier in the first four weeks, viewing Love as the primary back despite Algier being a top-five draft pick. Kelley would take even money on Love out-carrying Algier early in the season.

Matt Kelley references the Kenneth Gainwell corollary: a running back who is not a strong between-the-tackles runner but demonstrates elite pass-catching ability can still produce as a featured back once given the opportunity. Gainwell's pass-catching production signaled his overall quality as a player and eventually led to increased volume, validating the principle that elite receiving efficiency can drive future production even when rushing metrics are modest.

Matt Kelley is bullish on Kyler Murray as a value pick at his current price. Murray was on pace for approximately 550–600 rushing yards last year, which would have led all quarterbacks in rushing. Kelley emphasizes Murray does not need to live up to his five-year-old superstar hype as a passer—only needs to play 17 games, execute competent football, and maintain his rushing volume from last year, which Kelley sees no reason he won't continue. Kelley describes Murray as a guilty pleasure pick, acknowledging skepticism about his commitment but arguing that even at his price, the upside is there; notes Murray is incentivized by a major contract decision coming in eight months and believes he is genuinely invested in performing well for the Vikings. Kelley also notes a three-year fantasy window with Murray for rushing utility that won't exist with other young QBs, as his escapability will remain valuable through his early thirties before utility drops dramatically after age 33–34.

LaQuint Allen is not a great between-the-tackles runner, but his electricity and dynamic pass-catching ability incentivized the team to keep him on the field more. Matt Kelley demonstrates how elite receiving production can drive increased offensive role and volume, with teams willing to expand usage once they see what a player can do in the passing game.

Mayer's own team (Raiders) doesn't seem to have strong belief in him despite being a good prospect coming into the NFL. His relationship with the team has impacted his playing time, and Brock Bowers has mostly nuked that playing time. By the end of his rookie contract he has done nothing, making him a worse prospect than Eli Rariton.

Tucker has contingent value where any injury to Bucky Irving or Kenneth Gainwell helps him immensely. He has an all-purpose skillset and only fell out of the draft because of a heart condition that is no longer a concern. Every time he gets on the field with 10 touches, he produces another 100-yard or multi-touchdown game.