Trade Gods - Crafting a deal for Makai Lemon
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 12 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 14, 2026
Published
Tue, July 14, 2026
33
Player insights
31
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen HurtsJavonte WilliamsCam WardChase BrownChristian WatsonD'Andre SwiftDarren WallerDerrick HenryElijah SarrattGeno SmithJalen CokerJaylen WrightJosh JacobsJustin Herbert
Player analysis
Player insights
Cam Ward
PositiveValue18:47
Quarterback option the analyst is considering as a potential late-round target, though they acknowledge he will likely be gone before their pick.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeValue0:01
Chase Brown was traded away in a deal where the other team clearly wanted him, indicating he was overvalued relative to what was received (Derrick Henry, Ollie Gordon, 2027 first, 2028 second for Chase Brown and Tajay Spears).
Insight pageChristian Watson
D'Andre Swift
PositiveDepth Chart0:19
DeAndre Swift is the incumbent running back in Chicago that Kyle Mononga Guy would need to overtake to become a featured back.
Insight pageDarren Waller
PositiveRole0:17
Darren Waller is listed as a tight end on the roster in a tight end premium league.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveProjection0:08
Derrick Henry produced 1500-1600 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last year with no drop-off, and his age 32-33 seasons could be big, especially with a healthy Lamar Jackson this year.
Insight pageElijah Sarratt
PositiveRole0:15
Elijah Surratt is getting good buzz and serves as a quality ancillary piece in the Ravens offense that helps take heat off defenders and supports the top receivers.
Insight pageGeno Smith
PositiveValue19:01
The analyst has been comfortable drafting Gino Smith in previous drafts as part of their late-round quarterback strategy.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveValue17:01
Late-round wide receiver option that the analyst likes and wants to target in the draft.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveRole0:17
Jalen Hurts is the quarterback on the roster and the reason the team is interested in acquiring Makai Lemon as a complementary receiver.
Insight pagePositiveValue20:40
Quarterback option that would have been available as a fallback value play if Justin Herbert had not been available.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveRole0:17
Javante Williams is on the roster as a running back alongside Derek Henry.
Insight pagePositiveValue17:33
Running back option available in the draft that the analyst is considering as part of their strategy to secure a strong RB after taking Kyle Pitts.
Insight pageJaylen Wright
PositiveDepth Chart0:06
Jalen Wright is competing with Ollie Gordon for the starting running back role; there is an argument that Wright played better at the end of last season, but Gordon's college pedigree and all-purpose skill set give him the edge.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
PositiveValue17:20
The analyst believes Josh Jacobs should be drafted with confidence as a running back option, noting that the lack of recent information about his legal situation is a positive sign and that others are still slow to process this, potentially driving his ADP down from sixth to seventh or eighth round.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveValue20:40
The analyst prioritized Justin Herbert as a quarterback option and successfully secured him, which validated their strategy of taking Gibbs early to ensure access to quality QB options.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
PositiveRole0:15
Keaton Mitchell helps the ancillary speed on the Chargers and supports top receivers like Lab McConkey and Ronda Gadsden.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveProjection17:16
The analyst believes Kyle Pitts is the key to their draft strategy, planning to take him at tight end and then pivot to running back in the next round.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveValue18:33
Quarterback the analyst is hoping will fall to them late in the draft as part of their strategy to wait on the position.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveRole17:20
The analyst likes Lad McConkey and considered drafting him, noting he plays a similar role to Luke McCaffrey but hasn't had the same breakthrough season; however, they express concern that a lot could go wrong and note he already has a strained hamstring.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveValue0:17
Makai Lemon was put on the block by his owner and is worth a first-round pick, though in the 2027 first class the value becomes more even around the mid-first range, making a Kyle Mononga guy plus second-round pick offer reasonable.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveProjection0:13
Mark Andrews is part of an upgraded Ravens offense with a healthy Lamar Jackson and improved offensive line, positioning him for increased production.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveValue18:33
Quarterback the analyst is comfortable settling for if Kyler Murray is not available, as part of their late-round QB strategy.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveSleeper0:17
Michael Mayer is available on the waiver wire and is a target to improve the tight end position, which is weak on the roster.
Insight pageOllie Gordon
PositiveBreakout0:03
Ollie Gordon is a 2,000-yard college rusher at 220 pounds with complete all-purpose skill sets comparable to Tyler Algier, and is one of fewer than 10 RB2s in the NFL who could conceivably become true bell cows, though he must first beat out Jalen Wright.
Insight pageOmarion Hampton
PositiveProjection0:15
O'Marrion Hampton benefits from ancillary speed and supporting pieces on the Chargers offense that help take heat off defenders.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
PositiveValue20:40
Quarterback option that would have been available as a value play if Justin Herbert had not been available.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
PositiveRole0:15
Rashad Bateman is mentioned as a potential option to step up and hold defenders accountable in the passing game to help funnel targets to Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.
Insight pageRyan Flournoy
PositiveValue17:01
Late-round wide receiver option that the analyst likes and wants to target in the draft.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
Travis Etienne
PositiveValue17:33
Running back option the analyst is hoping will be available in the draft, expressing preference for him over Derek Henry as a target.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveValue17:01
Late-round wide receiver option that the analyst likes and wants to target in the draft.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection0:13
Zay Flowers went over 1,200 receiving yards without a healthy Lamar Jackson for the full season, and with upgrades to the Ravens' offensive line and a healthy Lamar Jackson, his production should increase significantly.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Hey, it's Bill from the Bill Simmons Podcast. FIFA World Cup 26 fans, listen up!
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0:56You're listening to Trade Gods. This is Trade Gods, and we're here with the coach.
1:00We're going to talk about trades, talk about trades that are happening, that you're sending us on Discord.
1:06Search player profile on Discord. If some of those, trades in my leagues, trades in coaches' leagues, where we're trading picks in startups.
1:13We're making trades after the startup is over. Oh, there's a lot.
1:17There's a lot to talk about today on Trade Gods.
1:20You'll enjoy it. Coach, let's get right into it.
1:23I don't even want to wait. I can't wait.
1:26I want to show this trade off. This is a trade that I did very recently.
1:31I received Derrick Henry, Ollie Gordon, a 2027 first and a 2028 second.
1:35I give up Chase Brown and Tajay Spears. A great deal for you.
1:39And the beauty is, I know you're trying to directionally compete and grow and rebuild.
1:43So the long term, long form, you don't necessarily want Derrick Henry.
1:47You don't want to be holding the bag there.
1:50Let's look into Chase Brown and Derrick Henry, both about 16 fantasy points per game last year.
1:55Interchangeably, the RB7 and the RB8 last year in fantasy.
1:58You are trading years and age. We've talked about it off air.
2:02You're going to get a free look at Derrick Henry this year to where if you're competing, you'll ride into the championship.
2:09If you're not, you get a free look and we're come October, November, you can ship off Derrick Henry to get value back.
2:16And what do you get on top of that?
2:19That 27 first. And then the 28 second is nothing to scoff at.
2:23You get a cool, interchangeable Ollie Gordon for Tajay Spears.
2:26Backup handcuff running back that swapped happened. You can dive into more of the minutia of how much you like Ollie Gordon.
2:33But the beauty is, I would want, if I'm getting Chase Brown, I just think the 27 first is on the wrong side.
2:40And you are the benefactor of getting that 27 one in addition to the play that I already broke down between Henry and Chase.
2:48So tell me what you think. Tell the audience about this trade.
2:52And then I know you got something on Ollie Gordon for Tajay Spears.
2:56Yeah, I mean, I was happy to make this trade when it came in.
3:00I was proud of myself that I did not just take the first offer.
3:04I did a chisel where I said, hey, this is fine.
3:08I really wanted to do it. I almost accepted it.
3:11But I said, no, no, no, no. If I accept, everyone's going to yell at me on trade gods.
3:17Coach will be mad at me. This person in my league clearly wants Chase Brown.
3:21I need to realize that and get as much in it.
3:25But I really couldn't get much more in the deal.
3:28So I decided, hey, listen, I don't love Tajay Spears longer term.
3:32I don't see him as a bell cow back ever.
3:35He doesn't. That's just not in his range of outcomes.
3:38That isn't Ollie Gordon's range of outcomes. He has to first outplay Jalen Wright in camp and in preseason.
3:44I believe he will because he has a history of being a 2,000 yard rusher in college.
3:49He has the size. He's 220 pounds. He can catch the ball out of the backfield.
3:54He is one of the better RB2, RB3s in the NFL in terms of all purpose skill sets.
4:00He's best comparable to Tyler Algier. And I think that makes perfect sense.
4:04He reminds me a lot of Tyler Algier. And there are very few players.
4:08Tyler Algier, Kimani Vidal, Vidal Sassoon. There's a handful of running backs.
4:12I think all the way down to say, we'll go Tyrone Tracy.
4:16You take less than 10 RB2s around the NFL that could conceivably become true bell cows in the NFL, whether it's with
4:23their team with an injury in front of them or like Tyler Algier, they end up going to a new team after their rookie contract expires.
4:31And then Tyler Algier was incredibly unlucky. And if the same career path is available to Ollie Gordon, the probability that wherever
4:38he signs also drafts Jeremiah Love is so tiny.
4:41That's not what will happen. Okay. But first and foremost, he's got to beat out Jalen Wright.
4:46We're placing bets at player profiler. Check out our rankings, whether it's the dynasty rankings or even the seasonal rankings.
4:52Did a big, massive, huge, incredible, the biggest, I've made potential, the biggest update to our rankings since the off season kicked
4:59off as we get ready for the summer. So check that out.
5:03There's a, whether it be tight end premium, the best ball rankings, we just did a massive overhaul.
5:08I mean, we scrutinized each and every player coach put in his feedback.
5:12Everybody put in their feedback. We're talking about scrutinizing to a fraction of a percent, the target share we're projecting for every
5:19running back, every receiver, every team this year. And then that extrapolates out to a dynasty lifetime value, which then becomes our dynasty rankings.
5:27So when you see our dynasty rankings and they just make so much sense, it's because there's a lot of computer horsepower behind them.
5:34And, but also behind that, a lot of people, a lot of smart people that are putting in a lot of time.
5:41And so, yeah, go to the player rankings right now, check them out, flip through them.
5:46And you let us know, let me know, podfather at Roto Underworld, whether you think that any of them need to be
5:53updated, but we'll definitely see any individual players. Let us know, give us feedback, give us feedback.
5:58If you're watching the show on YouTube, put it in the comments.
6:02Maybe you think Jalen Wright's better than Ollie Gordon.
6:05You think Ollie Gordon should be ranked ahead. Fine.
6:08There's an argument that Jalen Wright played better at the end of last season.
6:12But we zoom out here at Player Profiler and look at the bigger picture, tells us, okay, we have a 2,000-yard rusher
6:19in college with a complete sort of box-stuffing profile.
6:22That's Ollie Gordon. That's very few other non-starting running backs in the league.
6:26So every time I have the opportunity to get Ollie Gordon on a dynasty roster, I take it.
6:31And who's not to say that with this new coaching staff, that the opportunity won't shake for the opportunity for Ollie Gordon
6:38to be a Tyler Algier to Devon Achan. And then you're frustrated because, hey, there's three rushing touchdowns available in the game.
6:45And one of them frustratingly goes to Ollie Gordon.
6:48We've seen it happen before with somebody like Tyler Algier, which is funny enough.
6:52It happened with B. John Robinson in the red zone where it was aggravating.
6:57Don't sleep on the fact that it can happen and repeat history itself for Tyler Algier with Jeremiah Love.
7:03But then going back to the best comparable with Tyler Algier to Ollie Gordon, don't be surprised in a down year where
7:10we see these projections that they're really bad. We've talked about projections for the Cardinals passing game to regress, projections for the
7:16Dolphins entirety of their offense to be a possibly bust city.
7:20And that's very tough for the most expensive player in Devon Achan.
7:24So it lends itself to the opportunity in this sneaky trade where you were able to finesse a 27 first from the
7:30Chase Brown roster and then get Ollie Gordon on top.
7:34You're just trading away Tajay Spears. You make a salient point.
7:37There aren't many running backs like take a handful of years ago.
7:41Tony Pollard. If he were to get the job after Ezekiel Elliott gets hurt, it's a league winner, right?
7:47We'd have very few of those clear identifiable players.
7:50So you kind of have to take your guesstimation and your shot on that.
7:54So as you said, verse Jalen wrong, you are going Ollie Gordon.
7:58Jalen wrong. I like it, dude. I like it.
8:00Keep a good keep. Let's keep that going. So yeah, I mean, I'm not out here in Dynasty going after everybody's Derrick Henry.
8:08That's just not a thing I'm doing. But would anyone be surprised if Derrick Henry has a big year this year?
8:14Well, 1500 near 1600 rushing yards last year. No fall off 16 touchdowns.
8:18There's been no drop off for Derrick Henry. Only the factor of we know time waits for no one.
8:24But can it wait another year? Absolutely. And for you, the beauty of this, it's interchangeable.
8:29We've talked about this when you had the Stafford-Devante Adams stack about a month ago.
8:34The viability of you had enough youth built to where you're going to get a free look.
8:39That's one of the most fun things to do in Dynasty, to have a free look at your team.
8:45And then if you have to sell, you can sell in season.
8:49And who's going to generate more value than a veteran running back than in season?
8:54Off season, you're not going to get the price that you want for an aging running back.
8:59But in season, when Derrick Henry stacks a couple 20 to 30 point games, and you're getting close to, hey, this player
9:06will push me over the top, then you'll be able to, on top of what you've already acquired with this 27-1, 28-second,
9:13and Ali Gordon, you're going to get plus even more.
9:16So it's like an inception dimension that you have going on in this trade.
9:20It's not final today. It might be final between you and this trade partner who you sent Chase Brown to and Tajay
9:27Spears, but there's another person in your league who you can stack on to make this an even better trade.
9:33Even if you're not like a win-now trade candidate, team, it's fine.
9:37You could still acquire Derrick Henry, get the first, get the second, and then flip him at the end of October for more picks.
9:45No matter what situation your team is in, this trade makes a lot of sense.
9:49This is just an overpay. This person wanted Chase Brown, and I would have negotiated.
9:54I'm sure because of my team build that I'm in a window with this team, that we could have worked something out
10:01where I wouldn't have given up a 2027 first.
10:04But to put the 2027 first out there so early, you've got to take your time, man.
10:09You've got to build up to it. If you're eventually willing to part with a 2027 first, and by the way, this
10:16is a team that no longer has Derrick Henry.
10:19So I'm getting the 2027 first from a team that won't have the production of Derrick Henry.
10:24I will. Think about that for a second. Yes.
10:27If he wanted to do this trade correctly, assuming this is a he, that 27-1, it should have stopped there.
10:33That should have been enough to throw Derrick Henry on top, I think was a mistake for him.
10:39But I think what they're thinking is, I've got to go like for like.
10:43I've got to send a running back. And that's where they fell into a trap.
10:48Unforced error on their part in sending the deal to you.
10:51To your benefit, though, you end up with Derrick Henry and that 27-1 plus the other part.
10:56So very good business for you. Let's imagine a different scenario.
11:00Let's do a thought experiment. Trade comes in. It's just the picks.
11:04It's a 2027 first and a 2028 second for Chase Brown.
11:07That's not an offer I scoff at. That's an offer that I want to engage with.
11:12And the odds that I would have even thought of adding Derrick Henry, it's not a reality.
11:17Like I probably would have been thinking more about, okay, I want Ollie Gordon.
11:22I wouldn't have even gotten it. That's where the trade becomes gifty.
11:25And I'm happy to cash in those gifts. I don't look gift horses in the mouth.
11:30That's not what we do around here. We don't do that ever.
11:34And we should be held accountable if we say anything like that.
11:38Police alert! If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
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12:36Take Messi, the most decorated player ever. Is there any other player who has achieved that?
12:41No. Just him. Now take Duracell. Is there any other battery with power boost ingredients inside?
12:46No. Just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different.
12:50And Messi only trusts Duracell. In this case, to make it not a cliche, I would not look a gift big dog in the mouth.
12:58I'm not doing that. I'm not doing that. Yeah.
13:00So just imagine, I wouldn't have even thought that I could get it.
13:04Because Derek Henry, we're talking about two big years.
13:07His age 32, age 33 season could be big.
13:10After that, okay. But I think we're assuming, we can safely assume this year is going to be huge because Lamar Jackson
13:17was not himself or out for half of the season last year.
13:21So whatever he produced, he produced it with Lamar Jackson holding linebackers accountable for only 50% of the games.
13:27This is also a big reason I love Zay Flowers.
13:30Because Zay Flowers went over 1,200 receiving yards, but he didn't have Lamar Jackson the whole season.
13:35So just imagine, this is another thought experiment. Imagine what this Ravens offense is going to look like with these upgrades they've
13:42made in the offseason, especially on the offensive line, and a healthy Lamar Jackson when you're thinking about Zay Flowers, Derek Henry, and Mark Andrews.
13:50And don't discount. You're kind of leaving something off there, which is good.
13:54Jacoby Lane and Elijah Surratt are more qualified, better capable receivers to support the people like Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, and of course, Derek Henry.
14:02So there's a little bit more booing going on.
14:05Think of it as like a little bit more high-level version of the Tennessee Titans with the undercurrent of the Helms, the Chameer Dikays, the Alec A-Manners.
14:13The Ravens have scaffolded some talent underneath to support the whole of the offense that is going to help the players up at top.
14:21Who you got, Jacoby Lane or Jalen Lane? What are we talking about?
14:25Jacoby Lane. Did I say Jacoby Lane? No, I know.
14:28There's two players that have similar valuations. Yes. I get them confused all the time.
14:33I had to look it up just now. Like, I was like, I just drafted someone at the end of a startup,
14:39and it was one of the two. I had drafted Jalen Lane.
14:43Jacoby Lane was gone. Yeah, you want Jacoby Lane.
14:46Jacoby Lane is the on-track player. I really do like him.
14:49He has strong hands. He's confident downfield. Granted, will this matriculate up to high-end wide receiver one, high-end wide receiver two?
14:56No, but it's one of those good things where you're building blocks for your offense.
15:01We're getting good buzz about Elijah Surratt. What that quantifies to fantasy-wise, it's more important that it buoys the rest of the
15:08offense, though, and just takes heat off the defenders.
15:10It's only going to help, back to your original point, Zay Flowers.
15:14Yeah, you want quality ancillary pieces. You don't want Zay Flowers to be alone on the island.
15:19You want at least wide receiver twos and threes and tight ends and running backs that can hold defenders accountable in the passing game.
15:27That's all we're looking for. If Tez Walker can do that, Jacoby Lane can do that, whoever can do it.
15:33Rashad Bateman, somebody step up. Hold these guys accountable so that we can just funnel targets to Flowers and Andrews.
15:39Oh, baby. Another example of that is Brennan Thompson with the Chargers or Keaton Mitchell.
15:44It's going to help the ancillary speed. That's going to help out the Lab McConkey's, the Ronda Gadsden's, O'Marrion Hampton.
15:50So we love these ancillary pieces, which is something that people need to pay attention to, even though they may not be a viable fantasy player.
15:58Real NFL affects and impacts the fantasy players. Not viable.
16:02No, Brennan Thompson's not viable. I like Brennan Thompson's presence on that particular team.
16:06And I'm just, again, you will feel so good if you are able to receive a trade that is an instant accept,
16:13but you counter because it feels like a high wire rack.
16:16Wait, I have a 2027 first and it's great.
16:19All I have to do is hit a button and I get it and I get Derek Henry.
16:25I can go make a run with this team.
16:27I just have to hit the accept button to not do that because when you hit counter, you are hitting the reject
16:34button and then you are hitting a proposed trade button.
16:37That's what that's all happening. The mechanics of that under the under the that one button to have the guts to do
16:44that and then for them to just accept it, which is what happened because they want Chase Brown.
16:50You have to remember they want Chase Brown. It feels so good.
16:54Yeah, that fact that they could have come to their senses when you counter and then they're like, oh shit, what am I doing?
17:01And then they hit reject and then your whole deal is imploded and you can't go back to that last pick or that last trade.
17:09That does take a certain amount of nuts. So here's the team.
17:13The final squad after the trade is Jalen Hurts, Javante Williams, Derek Henry, London Flowers, McLaurin.
17:18It's tight end premium start to tight ends, which is tricky.
17:21Goddard, Ferguson, Purdy and Superflex. Daniel Jones on the bench.
17:24And in the bench, we also have Brees Hall, Adunze, Adnai Mitchell, Christian Watson, Akonkwu, Ferguson.
17:29I'm weak at tight end. I want to improve tight end.
17:33There's a tight end available on the waiver wire.
17:36Michael Mayer. I'm not going to tell. I don't want to say it.
17:40I don't want to give anyone in this league any ideas.
17:43Michael Mayer, who I so it would be nice to open up a roster spot with a trade.
17:49And then we see on the right here that eight days ago, one of my league mates put Makai Lemon on the block.
17:56So I think we we go ahead and maybe see if we can do a trade for Makai Lemon because I have
18:03Jalen Hurts and I like Makai Lemon. I need more.
18:06I need more lemon in my life. You need life to give you lemons because you have Jalen Hurts.
18:12Now, looking at your roster, you know, you have the only thing about them putting lemon on the block is looking at their receiver room.
18:20It seems like they're going to need a receiver back in return.
18:23So I'd like you to think of maybe a receiver who you'd like to give in return from Makai Lemon, who's of equal value.
18:31But I know we've talked and discussed Kyle Mononga guy, a 27 second.
18:35Tell us about the horde of picks you have.
18:38You have multiple ones. Is it three seconds and three thirds that you have?
18:42It's it's incredible. Yeah, we have. I believe this team, if we look at the draft picks that are available, we've got
18:49a 2027 first that we acquired in trade. We have our own 2027 first.
18:53We've got three 2027 seconds and two 2027 thirds.
18:56So we have a lot. We have a lot of firepower here.
19:00I would love to give up Kyle Mononga guy.
19:03Kyle Mononga guy is a lot of value. There's all these assumptions being made about Kyle Mononga guy's long term future in
19:10Chicago that I'm not willing to go there. I think it would be nice.
19:14I think that's a great outcome if he can somehow take over the job from DeAndre Swift somehow, some way, and then keeps the job.
19:22They don't draft a running back. And then he decides to learn how to become a pass catcher.
19:27All these things could happen. But there's a lot.
19:30There's a lot of hopium that has been infused into one Kyle Mononga guy.
19:35And I think it's now is a good time to trade him if possible.
19:39What do you think a Mononga guy in a second rounder for Lemon?
19:43I would absolutely send that. Now, any other year, this would be disrespectful for Lemon because Lemon clearly is worth a first round pick.
19:51But when you get into the granular aspect of the 27 first class, it gets a little bit tougher.
19:56It gets more even right about that mid 27 first range.
20:00So I think by you fishing out, this person actively put Lemon on the block.
20:05Thank you. Thank you. Okay, coach. That's the important insight.
20:08We're in 100% agreement. The biggest data point that we have on whether or not we should offer more or less is
20:15that this owner put Makai Lemon on the block.
20:17He doesn't necessarily want Makai Lemon even. Maybe he likes Kyle Mononga guy.
20:21Maybe he's really in a 2027 picks. We don't know.
20:25Let's find out. Let's propose something. Let's start a conversation.
20:28Now, while you send that, I do want you to think of looking at his depth chart.
20:33It seems like his team is going to need a receiver, which it seems it doesn't make sense to the fact that
20:40why would you put Makai Lemon, a young receiver on the block when if you're doling him away, you should get a receiver back in return.
20:48So looking at your roster for future negotiations, when there's some counters possibly granted, he could take first offer as seemingly the best offer.
20:56But what wide receiver that you have on your roster right now, would you dole at least one for one for Makai Lemon?
21:03Would it be somebody like a Christian Watson who we believe in, but is about what four years older?
21:09This is a miserable spot. I'm in a miserable spot with wide receiver because I go from London Flowers, McLaurin, a duns, a stud foundational wide receivers.
21:17We're not sure about a duns, a, but the upside for a duns is huge.
21:22Like he's not quite a foundational stud yet, but if he has even just a good first three weeks of the season,
21:29everyone will pencil him in as a cornerstone wide receiver for fantasy moving forward because he has the top 10 pick profile
21:36and he's young and he's on the right offense.
21:38So it's everything's lining up with Caleb Williams for a duns.
21:42A if he can just play well. So let's hope he plays well.
21:46I can't give up Casey Concepcion because then that's a lateral trade.
21:50So I'm not just going to give up Concepcion for Lemon or Concepcion in a third rounder for Lemon.
21:56That's too lateral. I hate lateral trades. It's not interesting to me at all.
22:00I want to be at least interesting. Then my other problem is I get, I get no one in the middle.
22:06I only got one receiver that I could add on and it's a receiver.
22:11I really don't want to add. And that's Adonai Mitchell because after Concepcion and Christian Watson, it goes all the way down to Mitchell.
22:18I got no one in the middle here. I got nothing.
22:22I got no player like Cortland Sutton, DK Metcalfe.
22:25I've got none of these guys. Usually I look at a roster.
22:28I've got, I've got some wide receiver that's parked directly in the middle.
22:32Yes. That I can go ahead and add on that.
22:36I, that I wouldn't care much about losing. I'm not going to let Christian Watson go as a way to try to get Makai Lemon.
22:43Christian Watson is going to accrue value this year.
22:46He's going to accrue more value this year than Makai Lemon.
22:50I'm not giving him up. So it's a very tricky thing.
22:53I would have to add Adonai Mitchell, even though Adonai Mitchell to me has some of the most asymmetric upside that's out there at the wide receiver position.
23:02It's a tricky situation. Two things. I would sell, I would sell the hype and I love Adonai Mitchell.
23:08I would add, if it meant getting the deal done, I would add Adonai Mitchell to this deal for Makai Lemon.
23:14Now, the other data point entry point that we have is the players that are rostered on your trade partner's team.
23:21Luther Burden is on there. So if you were to send Roma Dunze, who you won't, you won't send him, but you don't want to.
23:29But I could see part of his thinking being, well, I'll wrap up the Bears number one wide receiver no matter what.
23:35The other data point entry point would be one for one.
23:39Christian Watson for Lemon to see if he would want more of the surety of the Green Bay Packers number one receiver
23:46because he already has Jaden Reed, you might be able to play into that.
23:50That's just something that I would investigate and look into.
23:53Lemon's not good enough. Lemon isn't at the level.
23:56If it was a wide receiver that was at the Zay Flowers or above level, I would start to contort myself and
24:03I would start to think about, okay, I could actually let Christian Watson go, even though the upside is immense and I
24:10really want to see how this plays out. I want to see how this hand plays out.
24:15I want to see the flop with Christian Watson.
24:18I really want to see the flop with Roma Dunze.
24:21For me to not, for me to opt out of that, it would have to be another player who I really want
24:28to see the flop on, like Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers, I don't even need to see the flop, but I will.
24:35It's like a certainty. It's going to be like ace, ace, ace.
24:38And I have an ace. No, it's such a certainty with Zay Flowers.
24:42But to me, I think we have the trade.
24:45I am willing to let go of Ednai Mitchell, sell the hype.
24:49I agree with you. He is the fastest moving player in all of best ball right now.
24:54We've been ahead on Ednai Mitchell, but it's very difficult to keep up.
24:58This giant update that we've done to the best ball rankings that's hitting right now.
25:03I was like, oh, yes, thank you. Okay. We'll drag Ednai Mitchell 40 more spots up the rankings.
25:09If everyone else is on board, we're on board even more than anyone else.
25:13So let's just keep dragging this guy like a crane up, up, up, up into the sky.
25:18Right? And so at this point, I think that adding Ednai Mitchell could actually move the needle.
25:24A month ago, we wouldn't have. And that's the beauty of the offseason.
25:28It's just what are people talking about on message boards?
25:31What's going on on Dynasty Reddit? You've got to be on Dynasty Reddit just to know who everyone's talking about.
25:37Ednai Mitchell is one of those guys that he's on both the Dynasty Degen channels of social media, but he also is
25:44showing up a lot in the best bro channels, the best ball bro channels.
25:48So once you see, okay, he's on best ball bro Twitter, and he's also on Dynasty Twitter and Reddit.
25:54Okay. It's maybe, maybe just maybe it's time to sell.
25:57It's time to see what the market's willing to pay for this guy.
26:01And you've put my Kyle limit on the block.
26:04So I'm going to put a hot asset in Ednai Mitchell and Kyle Mononguy is one of those hot running back assets in Dynasty specifically.
26:12Plus you give it up to 20, 27 second.
26:15You're you're it's a lot of pop, a lot of flash, a lot of stuff.
26:19You're going to have a sizzle to try to get my Kyle lemon.
26:24I think it's a very good first offer and you pray for opportunities for Ednai Mitchell because two months ago when we
26:30had Amari Cooper coming in round one draft capital, you have Kenny on Sadiq that creates traffic and a problem.
26:37And then we get reports from that, that Eddie Mitchell is the guy moving up.
26:41You have to sell that package it while you can, because two months ago you didn't have it.
26:47You have to take that because two months ago you would have been like, oh, hell yeah.
26:52For me to be able to get my Kyle lemon back.
26:56So the way you package that up, I think it's a very good first offer.
27:00It's something that will monitor because I think there's a deal out there to be had.
27:05All right. So let's let's pull up another trade here.
27:09I'm going to add this another trade to the stage coming up here.
27:13OK, so I am in a startup. It's almost wrapped up.
27:16I just talked about that. I drafted in that startup most recently.
27:20I drafted Jalen Lane, not Jacoby Lane, Jalen Lane.
27:23And so we'll actually look at that startup in its entirety right now.
27:27And then we will come back to this trade.
27:29So first things first. The trade was I gave up the 1608.
27:33I received the 1707 and the 2206. So I got a free player out of it.
27:38I love getting a free player. Oh, I love getting a free player is I'm at the end.
27:44By the way, the draft is about over. I have to keep reminding myself.
27:48I only have one more player to pick because that last round player doesn't count for me because I have an extra player.
27:55So would that last pick that you make be Clyde Edwards Hilaire?
27:59So you can flush them down off the waiver wire.
28:02That would be funny. Didn't that? That is funny.
28:05I can pick anybody I want, man, man. This is a good team.
28:09What do you have? What are you hoping for when it comes back?
28:13Okay, so here it is. First round, Puka Nakua.
28:16It's all flex. All flex. Okay, so it's super flex, all flex.
28:20So yeah, quarterback's interesting. But I figured in this case, you and I sat down and we've said, hey, we've done a bunch of startups.
28:28Neither of us have really pushed the envelope with quarterback in a startup this year.
28:32Let's play chicken with quarterback, see what happens. We've had so much luck getting players like Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones in startups as our QB2s, QB3s.
28:40What if we just load up on guys like that and see what happens?
28:45See how good it can get in the early rounds.
28:48And so we did that. Started Puka Nakua, which was a debate.
28:52Because this is all flex, Ashton Gentry was another strong possibility here.
28:55Half PPR, all flex. Ashton Gentry becomes a real debate between Nakua and Gentry.
29:00Full PPR, it would be Nakua as a smash, but I don't even think it'd be available if it were full PPR.
29:07I think he would have been drafted before Bowers.
29:09But because it's tight end super premium, it's half PPR, and then there's an additional 0.75 PPR for tight ends specifically.
29:16I ended up getting Nakua at the 108, which is a very rare thing.
29:20It's very rare to get Puka Nakua at the 108.
29:24So I was very happy to get that. And I still have a lot of Nakua, so I'm very thrilled to get Puka Nakua here.
29:31And then on the way back, this is strange.
29:34Again, half PPR, Jeremiah Love was there at the 205.
29:37And then it was third round reversal. So I had another early pick in the third round, Jonathan Taylor, then Brees Hall,
29:44then at the 505, Christian McCaffrey, at the 608, Cam Scadaboo.
29:48And then we were debating, because it was the 705, there were still a handful of quarterbacks available.
29:53We decided it was time to push the button on quarterback with Matt Stafford.
29:58Matthew Stafford's going to play this year and next year.
30:01That's all I'm playing for. I have two years to figure out my next starting quarterback for 2028.
30:06We'll all do it together. We'll do it on the show, live on the show, right?
30:11Trade guys. We'll figure it out. So Matt Stafford at the 705.
30:15Again, it's all flex, half PPR. David Montgomery at the 808.
30:18Daniel Jones at the 905. Chuba Hubbard, a pick you hate at the 1008.
30:23Jacoby Brissett, a pick everybody hates at the 1105.
30:26J.K. Dobbins, 1208, which I thought was a complete smash.
30:29I can't believe he was there. And then start to leverage the tight end super premium settings with Travis Kelsey, Geno Smith,
30:36Shitter Sanders, and then started to draft some tight ends, some fringy tight ends.
30:40Raritan, Dulcich, Kosial, Pat Fryermuth, Sean Tucker, Isaiah Davis, Jarquez Hunter, Trevor Etienne, A-Chan.
30:44So all our favorite, or a bunch of our favorite, handcuff and sort of depth running backs that have great contingent value.
30:51Kept going back to the well at quarterback. Tyson Badgen at the 2008.
30:55Jameis Winston at the 20, 2305. And then some receivers at the end.
30:59Tyquan Thornton, Colby Young. Talked about Jalen Lane. Snuck in Raheem Sanders and Will Shipley into that team.
31:05So I'm feeling very good about it. That's how it all played out.
31:09But as you can see, the trade that was done made it so that I couldn't draft in the 16th round.
31:16Gave me a pick in the 17th round, which became Sean Tucker.
31:19And then I got that bonus pick, which became Kosial in tight end super premium, which I liked later on.
31:26And if you look at that round, we highlight round 16.
31:29These are players I did not have a lot of interest in in the first place.
31:34Aaron Jones, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Schultz, Braylon Allen, Ted Hurst I'm interested in, but it's half PPR.
31:39So I really, Ted Hurst really wasn't on my radar.
31:43Of all the players drafted in that round, the only player that was actually on my radar was Tyler Algier.
31:49But he was dropped multiple rounds to get to that point.
31:52And I knew I would never get him by the time my pick rolled around.
31:57And sure enough, he went at the 1604. And so I was like, you know, all of the players that were selected,
32:04I think Dylan Sampson is a great pick. I mean, at the 1701, you know, Dylan Sampson would have been great.
32:10That's probably who I would have would have picked him or Raritan Raritan falling that I've never get Raritan this.
32:17I mean, tight end super premium. For some reason, Raritan goes early, man.
32:21People love Eli Raritan, especially in tight end premium.
32:23And so I was shocked to get him where I did.
32:27And it ended up working out. Essentially, I got a guy I would have picked anyway.
32:32And then I got this free pick in the in the 22nd round.
32:36And so I'm always looking to do these kinds of deals.
32:39So it's rare to get Raritan where you had them.
32:43The one thing I want to point out is the person who had the 111, they went in symbiosis with you.
32:49They went like pure tight end while you went on your rip roaring run of Jeremiah Love all the way through Cam Scadabo on all those running backs.
32:58So it's very interesting to see. Yeah, we talked about this.
33:01If you go to the board. I know we talked about it, coach, but that was pre-show.
33:07I'm acting as if you're telling me this for the first time.
33:10My bad. My bad. We're doing a show. All right.
33:13I'll mark 35 minutes. I'm just explaining. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
33:17You're right. For the audience, we've talked about this.
33:19Nothing that we talk about. We've never spoken. It wasn't discussed before the show.
33:24The type of trade we're going to do for Makai Lemon.
33:27That was not just an off the cuff commentary.
33:30That was planned. We talked about the possibilities. And sure, there's plenty of improvisational sort of extemporaneous conversation.
33:36And commentary. But the general thrust of what we're doing is planned.
33:39And so we've certainly talked about this guy. Cooper MCC did a great job.
33:44I want to give him his flowers. This is tight end super premium.
33:48And he did a lot more trading than I did.
33:51So if we scroll up and look at what this guy was able to do.
33:56He was the absolute best case partner in crime without us colluding in any way.
34:00This was the most accidental partner in crime league mate you could ever hope or want.
34:05It's actually incredible. He was getting out of my way in every round.
34:09And then I was I didn't know until you told me.
34:13I had no idea. I was inadvertently getting out of his way as well.
34:17And we didn't learn about this until the end of the draft.
34:21Where for some reason like you're a savant man.
34:24That's why you're on the show. You were like hey have you looked at what the player at 111 is doing?
34:30And I was like well not really. Kind of self-obsessed with my own situation.
34:35Let's take a look. And I'm like oh my god.
34:38This is a great strategy this guy has. And it's even better that it's not impacting me at all.
34:44In fact it's probably pushing some players. It's plowing some players that fit with my build strategy to me.
34:50And then my build strategy is allowing some players that he wants to leak over to him.
34:55It's beautiful because if you look around the entirety of the board.
34:59It's all blue littered with all the receiver. Position players.
35:02And for you and this other draft partner. It's all painted differently for you painted it green with the running back position.
35:09Then he went on the orange offensive with all the tight end picks.
35:13So it's beautiful economy of when you're in a draft.
35:16Sometimes you're only competing theoretically against one other person or two other people.
35:20But in this instance their draft concept aligns so beautifully with yours.
35:24It's the most perfect draft harmony you will ever see or hear in this game.
35:28I mean it is poetry. The moment I'm done with running back with Dobbins.
35:33He starts drafting running back with Dowdle. The moment he's done at tight end loading up on tight end with Kincaid.
35:39I start drafting tight ends like Kelsey. And sure he comes back with Goddard later.
35:44It's fine. So it's not it's not perfect. Again we were colluding.
35:48This is just happenstance. If you're able to lean into this all flex cuff scenario.
35:52The league is called Flexcellent. And it really is Flexcellent what you had to pull off.
35:57He chose his route of tight end. You chose your route of running back.
36:02And you were able to just play in the sandbox and have a great time.
36:07You love to see it. Yeah I mean I yeah it it really was eye-opening when you were like yeah did you
36:13take a look at this because this is this is this is kind of shocking how well this is working out with
36:20you two doing because we were the only two drafters who were clearly executing an outside the box strategy which you can and should do.
36:28I mean it's not outside the I mean it it's almost it's inside the box if you're obsessed with the scoring settings
36:35because the scoring settings are so different. It's all flex.
36:38All flex is a revolution. Okay so you're clearly would have a strategy all flex Titan massive premium would lend itself to
36:45someone hoarding tight end or hoarding running back. It would just make sense.
36:49But the other 10 drafters were not doing this.
36:52They were drafting balanced teams. And so we were the only ones that were just drafting what we thought would be like
36:59the best positions based on the scoring in that particular zone and just keep going back to it.
37:04And I kept imagining okay I was like soon like the the highly alluring wide receivers will eventually get drafted and then
37:11those people will will start to to hoard the running backs.
37:15It's half PPR the tight ends and it just didn't happen.
37:18You saw how late Raritan went. I was expecting it and it never happened.
37:22And that's just because you have a lot of people that are drafting in Dynasty that are not taking the settings and
37:29extrapolating that out what that means for both this year but also for a career.
37:34And I'm like yeah half PPR guy like Cam Scadaboo he needs to be heavily heavily prioritized.
37:39And it's interesting I'm in another startup which we'll talk about in a minute and it's a member of the audience and
37:46they invited me to join a startup and I've been joining a bunch of startups and anyone can email me podfather roto wonderworld.com.
37:53You want me to join your startup? I'm happy to do it.
37:57Love it. I'm having a great time. My only issue is he is following our rankings almost too closely and some of
38:04our especially our Dynasty rankings you'll notice again check our rankings out.
38:08They are in line with ADP in that you're not going to see any player that's just way outside the 40 spots ahead of where he goes.
38:16Okay. In like say underdog or NFFC or FFPC with the Titan premium.
38:20But in Dynasty there's a handful of these ADPs that are just so inefficient and just wrong.
38:26And that when we look at our three-year projection the lifetime value rating we put on these guys puts them you know
38:32sometimes a guy like Cam Scadaboo like three rounds ahead of where he's going in startups.
38:37So I've got a guy that you know that is consuming all of our content at a high level and he's taking it seriously.
38:45He's taking it almost too seriously where I'm like bro if you weren't in a draft with me you could have waited around to get Cam Scadaboo.
38:53But now you're drafting Cam Scadaboo because a he's top of the rankings and technically optimal.
38:58However it's only really optimal from a game theory perspective because you know I'm in the draft room with you because you
39:05could get him on the way back. So now you're putting me in this position where I have to start thinking about
39:12okay I have another person who knows all the answers to the test and I have to beat them to get an A+.
39:19So we have two people going in that have basically the answer to the test.
39:24How do you beat that guy? So now I have to try to like take my game to another level.
39:30So and the way I'm going to do that is that I think the way to the easiest way to do that
39:37coach is to use what he's already done against him and create a zig while he zags cadence similar to what we had unintentionally in the last draft.
39:46So what he's already done is he's already given out a lot of information.
39:50He drafted Carnell Tate around before he typically goes because he knew I would draft him.
39:55Thanks buddy. Appreciate that. Fun drafting with you. And then he just went right back to the rookie class and couldn't decline the value on Fernando Mendoza.
40:04Whether or not you take the value on Fernando Mendoza in drafts is an important question in startups because you're basically ceding
40:10to the league at this point in Superflex. I'm probably not going to compete this year.
40:15So it's the first signal that you're going to get about strategy.
40:19Definitive signal is who's the first team to take Fernando Mendoza.
40:23That team you know is rebuilding. So now I'm like okay I guess I'm drafting AJ Brown.
40:28Okay I guess I'm going after Derrick Henry. So based on what he's doing I want to get out of his way as quickly as possible.
40:36And so I will. So from now on you're going to see me lean on guys that are 27, 28, 29.
40:43And hopefully he can lean on guys that are 22, 23, 24.
40:46And we can stay out of each other's fucking way.
40:50Now this is almost a weird strange way of colluding.
40:53In that I know he's listening even though we're not directly communicating.
40:56Like he invited me to the league and I haven't heard from him since.
41:01However if he listens to the podcast it's like we're colluding but it's out in the open.
41:06Like anyone can listen to the podcast. So we're really not colluding in the traditional sense.
41:11But in a way now he can lean into this youth strategy with the confidence that I'm not going to get in his way.
41:19Now that I've drafted AJ Brown he probably knows already.
41:22He's not an idiot. I don't know what he knows.
41:25I'm pretty sure he's a smart guy that he's going to figure it out.
41:29Especially if he's found our rankings. If a guy finds your rankings and then invites you to join a draft.
41:35Wouldn't you think he's pretty smart and confident? Yes.
41:38And then use those rankings against you. That's pretty you got to you got to admit that this is this is a
41:45high level strategic thinker that we have in our hands here.
41:49And so now I'm basically going to send him a signal.
41:52Typically this would be done just in the draft room.
41:55I just happen to have a podcast that he listens to.
41:59So this is just a different dynamic. But essentially by me going AJ Brown Derek Henry in this draft in the next
42:05few rounds it's going to be a clear signal to him that's like hey listen you know what I'm doing.
42:12Clearly you took Mendoza and Tate. I know what you're doing.
42:15So let's be cool. Yeah you're both trying to experience flexural healing like you did in that other draft.
42:21But this kind of reminds me of like in the movie Heat with De Niro and Pacino.
42:26They sit down at the diner. One's on one end.
42:30You're on the other end. You mutually respect each other's game.
42:33But you're in the same arena but you're on the opposite side.
42:37So you're both trying to take your personal lane.
42:40Not to be confused with Jalen or Jacoby Lane.
42:42And go your way further. You're going to see the adjustment that he has on those growth players.
42:48Well, that's the thing I'm not gonna ask him stuff.
42:51I'm gonna ask him right. Stop doing what you're doing because I know the answer already.
42:56Just like Pacino knew the answer. It's like, I'm not gonna stop.
43:00It's like, I know you're not gonna stop. I'm gonna have to stop you.
43:04It's like, I know you're gonna have to stop me.
43:07Well, then you have to stop me then stop me then you'll have to stop me.
43:12You go. Cause I'm not gonna stop but I know you're not gonna stop.
43:17I've stopped. So it's like, Hey, stop using our rankings during this.
43:20He can't do that. He's not gonna do that.
43:23So we have to find. I have to find another way.
43:27I can't be doing this, dude. If I went youth, I can't be doing this.
43:31I can't have this guy sniping everybody I want.
43:34He's going to do it. Where it's going to start to annoy me again, it'll start to annoy me again in about
43:4112 rounds when he starts to take these upside running backs that I love.
43:45When he starts grabbing all the Sean Tuckers and Jarquez Hunters and Trevor ETN H-ans and Isaiah Davis's, when he starts doing
43:52this to me, it's going to bother me because it always does.
43:56He's like, LaQuinn Allen. Who the hell are you to draft LaQuinn Allen and not me?
44:01Who the hell do you think you are? Who gave you permission?
44:05And he's like, well, actually, I subscribed to the rankings, so I technically paid for this.
44:10And you're like, well, that's fair. I think that's perfectly fair.
44:13That's the way it should go. Yes, that's the way it should go.
44:17So that happened. Now let's add something that you've done to the stage here, get it featured.
44:23A beautiful thing is it's a startup, Devi 40 round draft.
44:26So I can have up to 20 Devi players and it's a whole, it's a lot of shit going on.
44:32Personally, I may have been under the influence of alcohol when I signed up for this.
44:37But anyways, this guy sent me a no bullshit offer.
44:40Can you just explain the format? You have to remember, again, we have high level strategic thinkers in this audience, and a
44:47lot of them are subscribing to the Dynasty Deluxe package on player profiler, our rankings draft kit, and they're destroying their drafts.
44:54They can handle it. Okay. So in this, a lot of shit going on setting, this is on blue chip, cool fun app.
45:01But in the Devi setting, you can select Jeremiah Smith in round one, which he went in round one.
45:07They're parallel to all the NFL players. Now, what you have to guise through is they join your NFL roster when they get drafted to the NFL.
45:16So you have to do the waiting game. So what's the offsuit of that?
45:20The off value of if you go Arch Manning, not to be confused with Arch type.
45:25If you go with Arch Manning, you have to wait until he goes to the NFL.
45:30So there is some strategery that goes into this.
45:33I get how Devi works in that case. You're ticking the actual player, not a future Devi draft pick.
45:39You can pick college players and you just get them when they come into the league.
45:44And so I guess is the rookie draft, the rookie draft, you're drafting college players in that case in a handful of pros.
45:51Yeah. It ends up being players who didn't get drafted, who weren't rostered, and then incoming freshmen to my full understanding.
45:58Right. So it's mostly incoming freshmen, the elite incoming freshmen, the five-star recruits, as well as a handful of seniors that got drafted that weren't on anyone's team.
46:06Correct. And the beauty is this here, though, is the startup pick.
46:10So this is dynasty part where you're drafting NFL players but can still select college players.
46:15But he sends me a no bullshit offer second round in my sixth round.
46:19I get the third and the fourth round pick.
46:22So the beauty is I was able to run the board.
46:26I have the 103. I go Caleb Williams. My 210, 63, I trade away.
46:30I get 3746. Jonathan Taylor, who is the back-end tier of the running backs that I wanted.
46:35Chris Olave. And then my 310, 43, my nascent picks that I have.
46:39Carnell Tate, George Pickens. You love those picks. That's why I set up the board with Olave, Tate, Pickens, Hero RB, Jonathan Taylor.
46:47He ends up getting Jeremiah Love at 210. And somebody else traded away.
46:51It was Garrett Wilson at the 63. But anyways, round five, I set it up between I have stacking partners for Ward, Dak, and Shuck.
46:58We've done this exercise a million times where you sandwich the players and then that quarterback that you get.
47:04So what I did intentionally, too, with this trade, going Olave, going Tate, going Pickens, the three quarterbacks who would be there
47:11in round five for me were Dak Prescott, Cam Ward, and Tyler Shuck.
47:15So I increased my odds to near 100% that I'm going to get a stacking partner out of all this for my second quarterback.
47:23And I went with Tyler Shuck. So just a great deal all around.
47:27And I applaud the person. It was just a no BS offer straight from the jump.
47:32You know, had he been like, hey, I want the fifth back, I would have been like, you know what?
47:38A little too expensive for the second. He gave me that layer to have that fifth round pick to keep.
47:44And I gave up my sixth round pick. So I was able to stack and really get the identity of my team.
47:51And it's funny. There's 40 rounds. I'm in like round 20 right now.
47:55So a lot of shit going on as I led off with.
47:59You're smart. My genius. So how many? It's unlimited.
48:02You could, you could, someone could draft all college players and blow their team completely sky high.
48:07There's a cap to 20. So you have to play that fine line.
48:11Some people go 15. Some people go 10, but usually about 15 to 20 is a good way to do it.
48:18If you go 2020, then you're banking on having less depth on the NFL side in your first year.
48:24Does that make sense? But I just want to make sure that everyone understands.
48:28And again, now I'm in a difficult spot because I'm assuming that the audience is so smart.
48:33I don't even have to tell them anything, but they know everything already.
48:38So they can't read minds. Not quite at my level.
48:41Some of them are higher than my level. There's here for the, they're just, they're here for the vibes.
48:47They're much better at this than I am. But either way, in this particular situation, the one thing you do not want
48:53to be is the team that has the most college players.
48:5720 college players is going to bury you. You will be buried every time.
49:01Every time I've seen someone try that shit where they've gone heavy on the Debbie heavy on the college players.
49:08They wake up in a couple of years and the team is toast.
49:12If they hit on one or two, but they had so many guys that they got nothing for and they were losing value.
49:19But they were, the other problem is, is that they felt trapped in that they were trapped by the recruit rating.
49:25This guy's a five-star prospect. They hold on for another year.
49:29Sometimes they get hurt in college. All of a sudden, wait a second.
49:33I've been stashing this guy for two years. Burn a hole in my roster and he's never even going to be anything.
49:40You had this happen time and time and time and time and time and time again.
49:45It's just like, it's like in the world cup.
49:47You see this all over the place. Hey, this guy, this player, there's a guy named Dan burn and he's super tall.
49:54He wasn't recruited to be on the England team in like the U 18 U 19 system.
50:00He didn't ever think he was going to be on the England.
50:03There's a bunch of guys like that. Actually, even on the biggest teams, like this guy, Ulysses for France, even where they're
50:10like, I, I washed out of my youth program and I just was grinding and I joined these lower league teams and
50:17I moved up through the lower leagues. And then my team got promoted and they noticed me and I got transferred.
50:24And then all of a sudden I'm a superstar, but I circumvented the youth system.
50:28But you had these guys that didn't really participate in the academy system.
50:32And so they've never really thought about being on a national team because they're like, I've missed my window.
50:38And then suddenly a guy like Dan burn is in his thirties.
50:42He's playing some of his best football because defensive players, center backs, especially develop late.
50:47And he's in his thirties and he gets his first call up for England.
50:51And like, we need you to play Holland. Then they didn't even bother because Holland didn't do anything with or without Dan burn on the pitch.
50:59And then they, and then he decided to take himself off and Harry Kane stayed on.
51:04So, uh, you know, he basically, I think that, I think that we saw a little bit of police.
51:10There's a little bit of police in all of us.
51:13Really? Uh, there's a, there's a little bit of weakness in all of us, including even Erling.
51:19Holland has some, has some police in him, unfortunately.
51:22Uh, so it's, it's possible. This happens in football.
51:24These guys, they're not recruits. They're not, they have no stars.
51:28Do you have stories about Rashad white was homeless living in a car, going to community college?
51:33He did not get a recruit rating. He was not in one of those fancy books that they give to all the colleges.
51:40Right? So there's a whole influx of these guys that end up being great.
51:45They come, they transfer in from small schools. They were three-star recruits, whatever it is.
51:49And so it's a very dangerous game. I would just dabble.
51:53I would much rather, so much rather have players that are first or second year players that have been vetted by the
52:00NFL that went through the draft process, were selected, signed a contract, all these things still have the youth, but at least they're, they're in the NFL.
52:08NFL, there's a lot of value to just being on an NFL team.
52:12This sounds super obvious, but I can tell you the first time I joined a Debbie league, there was certainly a siren
52:19song to some of these, these young college players.
52:22Yeah. If somebody will go for Malachi Tony and it's like, cool, you have to wait two more years potentially for him
52:29just to even hit your NFL lineup. And you made a great point all throughout the draft.
52:34It suppresses so much good NFL talent that if you let people be just thirsty for those players and have that thirst,
52:41you end up getting so much good falling value for proven NFL players.
52:45And not to mention, you can trade assets. So you can take advantage of the psychology of being able to buy some
52:52of those assets lower that might have a dent in the can.
52:56Let's say Malachi Tony does get hurt. Maybe you open yourself up to having enough NFL talent to where you can acquire him much easier.
53:03But again, if you're taking a player who's a sophomore or they got a couple of years left, but they're high profile, you're eating that startup value pick.
53:12So yeah, I like to pick my spots and I've just been kind of pacing it to a degree.
53:18I'm up. I'm up in a startup. You ready?
53:21Tell me. Take a look at this. What do we got?
53:24Let's do it. Let's take a look. We are drafting at the 104.
53:28This is a relatively traditional league setup scoring system, roster configuration.
53:32The one interesting element here is you only start two wide receivers.
53:36You start two wide receivers. We've got an extra 0.5 PPR going to tight end.
53:40So it is standard tight end premium. It's traditional tight end premium.
53:44And you only start two wide receivers. And I already have two wide receivers.
53:48So I'm feeling very good about wide receiver. We have a bunch of flex spots and I prefer to put running backs
53:55in my flex spots, especially now, especially now with the way the NFL has been deprioritizing wide receiver twos in the target
54:02pecking order, throwing to more tight ends, throwing to more running backs.
54:06So I'm very into loading up on running back.
54:09In this particular draft, I was able to start with Gibbs at the 104 and then Herbert at the 209.
54:15A-chan at the 304. Flowers at the 409. And then A.J.
54:18Brown at the 504. We mentioned drafting A.J. Brown.
54:21And here we can see our friend Sebekka, who drafted Bowers, Prescott, Tate, Scadaboo.
54:26Basically, if you've looked at a bunch of startups I've done this year, I'm very, very heavily exposed to those guys.
54:32So thanks for that. But now again, now I think it's already become apparent after five rounds how we can stay out of each other's way.
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55:33Visit homedepot.com. How doers get more done. Well, one, you're going to try and take away from Sveka, who this, are we
55:40sure this guy doesn't work at the docks in Baltimore?
55:43Shout out to the wire. Let's go, let's go.
55:46Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Of course.
55:49Let's go. For me to go. bottleneck. But. I only have one player in my queue and he made it to me.
55:55And, based on where other tight ends have gone, Fanon Laporta, they went several rounds earlier.
56:00Kraft is long gone. And, while we love the barbell strategy for tight ends, it is.
56:05It is. It is. art. I love an artistic piece where you have Goddard and Stowers.
56:10You've got Kelsey and Raritan. I love that. I mean, it feels so good.
56:15The ultimate extreme tight end barbell is really fun.
56:18But at some point, you have a guy on a franchise tag in his super prime who could be the number one
56:25tight end in fantasy after Brock Bowers or if Brock Bowers were to miss any games.
56:30It could be Kyle Pitts. One for one, they play 17 games.
56:33Bowers is the tight end one every single time.
56:36But is there a case to be made that Kyle Pitts, things align for him this year and things misalign for Trey
56:43McBride that he could simply outscore Trey McBride this year?
56:46That is absolutely possible for a guy like Kyle Pitts.
56:49I think he has more upside than Laporta, more upside than Fannin, more upside than Kraft.
56:54And I know there's a ton of running backs I could get on the way back.
56:59So then I at the 704, I want to go running back.
57:03But I also I'm going to start to look at quarterback because I my second quarterback is is is there for me,
57:10Cam Ward or Tyler Shuck or Kyler Murray. One of them will be there as well in the seventh round.
57:16So then we have to before we make this pick, we have to decide what we're going to be doing.
57:22Am I going to go tight end quarterback? Probably not.
57:25I think I want to leave this section of the draft, either the 609 or the 704 with at least one running back.
57:33Are we right on that? Yeah, I like that.
57:35I like what you were leading off, though, with Kyle Pitts, because Kyle Pitts is kind of a firewall tight end to
57:42where we can reach that top one to three tight end status next year.
57:47And the beauty is with Kyle Pitts, we talked about ancillary pieces earlier.
57:51How about Zachariah Branch may not be a week in week out fancy viable player, but the speed that he presents being
57:58able to stretch out the defenses a little more speed of threat than somebody like Darnell Mooney, that's going to help and
58:05benefit all the superior pieces in a Drake London and a Kyle Pitts.
58:09And if you have to attack out of Iloa, who would he have like 4,500 passing yard season with Mike McDaniel, put
58:15him in a good setting in Atlanta, you can see there's viability to where and the indoor fast track.
58:21Things can work out for Kyle Pitts this year.
58:24So I like the Kyle Pitts pick. Are you thinking Kyle Pitts and then go running back with the wraparound pick?
58:31This is why we're talking about it. We're talking about it in real time.
58:35And yes, if we we pull this up on the screen right now and you don't have to mess with the other
58:42person, the trade partner on your wraparound, you're not dealing with Sabaka here.
58:46No, no, I'm not. He's not really a trade partner, but he is just a competitor who is accessing the same intelligence
58:53briefs on these players and their value as we are.
58:56I think this is a smash pick. I think this is just one of those where you could argue, hey, you reached a little bit on Zay Flowers.
59:05And it's like, yeah, I did. Just like he reached a little bit on Cam Scadaboo.
59:10These are just the best picks available by far and away.
59:13They're silly values. And sometimes just to push the button, like AJ Brown, right?
59:18AJ Brown is creeping into the first round on underdog.
59:21You know that best ball drafts first round. I wouldn't say on fast draft because you only draft 10, but 111, 112.
59:28I've seen it. I've seen it. I've seen it.
59:30I've seen it with AJ Brown. And so to get him as this late, it's feels good, right?
59:36Fifth round, like end of the first beginning of the second versus the fifth round for a guy who's 29.
59:42AJ Brown could easily produce for age 29, 30, 31.
59:45That's three years. What are we talking about here?
59:48What are we talking about? Ted McMillan went at the 305.
59:52It's possible at the end of September, AJ Brown has more dynasty value than Ted McMillan.
59:57Would you, would you agree that's possible? It's well within the range of outcomes.
60:01And it'll also be something where there's a flippening in season.
60:04You have the deck at pounds year for AJ Brown, just based off reputation, right?
60:09Because there's the knee drainage, the age issue where you could see a flippening in season right there, a real time.
60:16Bryce Young isn't pushing it how he should. And then Terrell McMillan is falling.
60:20Every year, we like to see players ascend, but there's always players who diverge and move down.
60:25We don't get the outcome that we want. This could be an easy flip that occurs to where people are like, Hey, wait, tied to Drake May.
60:34I want to your case year two, year three of AJ Brown, and then deal with the bill at the end while you're winning.
60:41And then wait out Ted Arora McMillan, finally having an ascendance.
60:45We could absolutely see a flatline year on Ted Arora McMillan and him fall.
60:49Cause there's every year we reshuffle the deck and the players in the top five rounds, there's droppage.
60:55It happens all the time. And then you have players moving up.
60:59Egg Buka, Rashi Rice, Nico Collins, Luke, Luke. Oh my God.
61:02Luke McConkie, super fragile. I mean, if we, if we get it, if we get a little breakout started by Trey Harris
61:09and they're playing a lot of 12 and 13 personnel because of that offensive line is their ability to bully people.
61:15And they're sitting on leads in Los Angeles. Lad McConkie, man.
61:19I like Lad McConkie. Okay. I'm not, I was thinking about drafting him, but I took flowers.
61:24I was considering, I like, I don't hate him, but a lot could go wrong.
61:29There's a, there's a, he's already has a strained hamstring.
61:32He's all, it's like, it's stacking up. Like the risk factors around a guy like Lad McConkie stacking up.
61:38I'm not seeing a lot of risk right now with AJ Brown.
61:42All I'm seeing is everyone in New England is saying, this is an alpha.
61:46We finally have an alpha. This is what an alpha looks like.
61:50All these things. So I also saw the two wide receiver spots in the starting lineup.
61:55And I thought I want to get two elite players.
61:58And I consider Zay Flowers elite. You're going to find out this year.
62:02Okay. As soon as a guy puts up multiple 1200 yard seasons, he starts being called elite.
62:07And that's going to happen with Zay Flowers. Park Zay Flowers, AJ Brown in those two starting spots.
62:13And I want to ignore the wide receiver position for a while.
62:17I have a bunch of late guys. I like, we all know who they are.
62:21Jalen Coker, Trey Harris, Ryan Flournoy. I, I want to have, I want to stay out of the middle at wide receiver
62:28at all costs in this particular draft and just hammer the other positions, tight end quarterback, but especially running back for the next, say 10 rounds.
62:36I think it starts with Kyle Pitts though. It starts with Kyle Pitts here.
62:41If I take Pitts, I really have to go running back at a 704.
62:45And I've pulled up the filter here in the draft room.
62:48So you can see who's available and it's, it's, it's, it's pretty strong.
62:53It's, it's strong to quite strong. I would say the running back options, Javante Williams, Josh Jacobs, Travis ETN HN and Derek Henry.
63:00One of those, if not multiple, I'm hoping ETN HN makes it back to me.
63:04If not him, then Derek Henry. One of those four will make it back.
63:09And I think I have to push the button in that case.
63:13I will be then pushing out quarterback, pushing out quarterback, praying a guy like Kyler Murray falls to me and then settling for, Oh, Matthew Stafford.
63:21And I just think that's fine. I think it's a fine risk to take that it probably won't get Kyler Murray.
63:27Probably not. I'm not going to get Tyler shock.
63:30He's going to be long gone. Cam Ward's going to be long gone, but I I've been through this exercise already in
63:37the last draft I did where I was sticking and moving at quarterback.
63:41And I'm, I've been very comfortable drafting guys like Gino Smith.
63:44And I think I'm okay. I think I can, I can go Herbert and then say three fringe starters, fringy starters after Herbert.
63:52And it it'll, it'll, it'll work out really well for me.
63:55In fact, the reason I did this strategy, the reason I drafted Gibbs in the first place was a thought that the
64:02thought experiment of what if Herbert is there at the two Oh nine, I was going to take Drake may, but then
64:09I was like, but if I take Drake may at the one Oh four, and then I see Herbert there at the
64:16two Oh nine, I'm going to be kicking myself.
64:18Cause I don't want to start two quarterbacks quarterback.
64:21Quarterback is a horrible way to start any draft ever.
64:24You don't want to do it. So I was like, I'm going to take Gibbs on the theory that there's a coin flip.
64:32I get Herbert. And if I do get Herbert, then this whole draft sort of plays out in front of me in a very logical way.
64:40And you know how it also plays out that way as well is it wasn't just Justin Herbert.
64:45It was Jalen hurts who goes a couple of picks later and then Patrick Mahomes.
64:50So you had, you would have had the opera, the opportunity should Justin Herbert have gone.
64:55You would have had the embarrassment of riches of still going for a falling Jalen hurts in the value play of Patrick Mahomes.
65:02So you did something very smart where kind of like what I did in that other startup where I was like, Hey, I'm going to have three receivers.
65:11I'm going to patch cam Ward, Dak Prescott, Tyler Shuck.
65:14I'll have my options. You had a tiered option of by going Gibbs one Oh three.
65:19You knew what on the bring back for you, you would have Justin Herbert, who you prioritize and wanted and you got,
65:26but had that not worked out, you still had Jalen hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
65:30So it was really a money play to go Gibbs from the jump because you really had, this is why having a
65:37bucket of players, tears for tears, players for players on your queue is going to help you not get snipe.
65:43Well, so on the clock, we would, we would have lost our pick, right?
65:48We would have, we would have lost our turn.
65:51Had we not brought the card up in time to Goodell because we talked so much, right?
65:56And this is trade gods. I thought you guys were talking about trades.
66:00All you're talking about startups. And it's like, Hey, listen, this is really interesting stuff.
66:05I didn't know I was going to be on the clock that we didn't plan.
66:09I'm going to tell you that we planned a bunch of things, a lot of trades to talk about today.
66:16We didn't plan on being on the clock. And so I am, and it's fun.
66:20And pick here. They're there. They've now alerted me in the chat that I'm on the clock.
66:26I'm sorry. I'm OTC, excuse me. I'm OTC. So we've iterated and iterated, which is what you need to do to have
66:32the best possible team structure when you're putting together a brand new dynasty team in a startup based on the rules, based
66:39on the available players, the game theory of it all.
66:42Kyle Pitts makes the most sense. Again, he's the only player I had queued up hoping to get him.
66:48It worked out, but then it's important that we've made this additional choice of we're going running back unless, unless something crazy
66:55happens, even if Derek Henry's gone, there's other option.
66:58I mean, they're not good. I'm not going to go running, but listen, I'm going to go quarterback.
67:04I will go. If, listen, if they, if they all choose to go running back, then necessarily I will have a quarterback
67:11I like available and I'm going to go quarterback.
67:13So we'll go shock or ward or Murray check our dynasty rankings to see who I would take in that situation because
67:20I'm leaning more when now, probably it's going to be either shock or Murray.
67:25And I might even go Murray. I might go Murray to just as the ultimate I'm going for this.
67:31It's official. I'm the rabbit come and chase me.
67:33I might do that, but that's, again, that's all predicated on not getting the big dog or even someone better, even like
67:40who knows Javante Williams, Josh Jacobs is falling. And the job, it seems to be a slow processing of the, the lack
67:47of information that we're getting on Josh Jacobs and a lack of information.
67:51It used to be scary. Now it's good. Yes.
67:54The less information we get is always better. That means that there's been no movement in the criminal justice system and that
68:01the investigation is either ongoing about to be closed.
68:04It's certainly not a hot topic anymore. And so it's, it's time to just realize you're drafting Josh Jacobs with confidence.
68:10You have to do it. And we, we, we know it.
68:14Others are still, they're a little bit slow to process that they know the news is out there.
68:19They know there's some nebulous accusation that sounds really bad that we, that is concerning.
68:24And that can drive a guy from being a six round pick in a startup to a seventh or even an eighth round pick.
68:32So it could be that we ended up with Josh Jacobs once this is, this all plays out, but now we have
68:38a plan, but it's all predicated on getting Kyle pits because there is a massive teardrop after this.
68:44So let's go ahead and get him in the books.
68:47We got him. We got Kyle pits in tight end premium in round six.
68:52Feels good. 609. That's nice. That's nice. That feels good.
68:55Hey, what a sexual team that you have set up.
68:58And now you just have so much pressure off.
69:01You filled out all your requisite positions shy of that second quarterback position, but the running back run out with Gibbs and H and come on now.
69:09Yeah. And you go Kyle pits to, to fill out.
69:12So you really have a lot of pressure off just shy of maybe playing that chicken game of quarterback.
69:18But as you saw, you pushed yourself in that last draft in that dynasty draft where you went all flex and you're
69:25like, Hey, how long can I push this game of chicken?
69:28Since you found out, had you not gone out and done that and done the exercise, you would not have built the strength to do that.
69:36What you're doing now. Does my fantasy team make you horny?
69:40I mean, I don't know about Luke lad McConkey, man.
69:43I almost, I almost, I almost called him Luke McCaffrey because I was like, he's not going to be Luke McCaffrey level.
69:50They actually play the same role on their respective offenses.
69:53One in Washington, one in Los Angeles. One just happens to have the big breakthrough season.
69:58The other doesn't. I like lad McConkey. Okay. I'm not, I was thinking about drafting him, but I took flowers.
70:04I was considering, I like it. Okay. So I'm not saying I don't hate him, but a lot could go wrong.
70:11There's a, there's a lot. He already has a strained hamstring.
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