Fantasy Price Check - Avoiding the Wrong Round 4 WR: Smith vs. Flowers vs. Egbuka
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
32 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 18, 2026
Published
Sat, July 18, 2026
40
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Zay FlowersDeVonta SmithEmeka EgbukaTee HigginsEli StowersJalen HurtsMakai LemonSaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
DeVonta Smith
PositiveProjection0:20
Wide receiver 17 at 37th overall in NFFC; with AJ Brown now gone to the Patriots, Smith is legitimately good and has posted two 15+ PPR points per game seasons while playing next to AJ Brown.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:21
In 187 routes without AJ Brown on the field, Smith was wide receiver 9 in yards per route run (2.59), wide receiver 6 in targets per route run (.31), and wide receiver 4 in expected fantasy points per route run (.61).
Insight pagePositiveRole20:59
Without AJ Brown on the field, Smith ranked WR9 in yards per route run (2.59), WR6 in targets per route run (.31), and WR4 in expected fantasy points per route run (.61), demonstrating elite efficiency and positioning him as the clear WR1 in the Eagles offense.
Insight pagePositiveProjection22:00
Smith has posted two 15 PPR points per game seasons while playing alongside AJ Brown, and is now positioned to shine as the Eagles' WR1 with his first real opportunity to lead the offense.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout23:00
This is the year to capitalize on Devonta Smith as he gets preferential treatment and the chance to show everything unencumbered and unbridled, separate from AJ Brown.
Insight pagePositiveProjection23:40
Ranked as WR18 in Dynasty with cautious outlook versus Zay Flowers and Emeka Egbuka, though expected to be a big part of the red zone offense for the Eagles.
Insight pagePositiveRole24:00
Expected to be a big part of the red zone offense for the Eagles, with high-point ability and trust from Jalen Hurts in the end zone.
Insight pagePositiveProjection25:40
Feels like a very safe floor play with expectations around 15 PPR points per game, but ceiling is limited due to touchdown concerns with career high of 8 in 2024 and expected regression to around 6 TDs.
Insight pagePositiveValue27:00
Ranked WR18 overall, making him the least preferred of the three Round 4 WRs being compared, though the analyst notes he will have exposure in redraft leagues and feels the price is fair.
Insight pageNegativeProjection28:00
Lacks top-5 upside and is a concern as a WR1 in redraft if paired with RB-RB start, though acceptable as WR2 behind an elite WR1.
Insight pagePositiveProjection29:00
One analyst is happy to be on an island with Devonta Smith, citing new OC Sean Mannion as a big factor with strong building consensus, contrasting with last year's Kevin Batula.
Insight pageEli Stowers
PositiveRole25:00
Mentioned as a potential pass-catching option on the Eagles whose rookie season impact on target share is uncertain.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveProjection0:01
Ranked as wide receiver 9 in dynasty rankings with expectations for a significant jump this season; analyst contends he's a round four receiver you want and projects him to be a round one player next year.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:01
Commanded 127 targets and 63 receptions on 17 games played last year, with a 22% target share in the first five weeks when he was wide receiver 3 overall in PPR scoring.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:02
Dealt with a hamstring injury in week 6 but played through it; Baker Mayfield was also playing hurt for most of last season, and both should be healthier this year.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup0:03
Had a dominant performance in week 5 against the Seahawks with 7 targets, 7 receptions, 1 touchdown, and 163 receiving yards for 31 fantasy points (WR1 overall that week).
Insight pagePositiveMatchup0:03
In week 10 against Christian Gonzalez and the Super Bowl team, recorded 13 targets, 6 receptions, 115 receiving yards for 23.5 fantasy points (WR3 on the week).
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:03
Averaged 16.1 PPR points per game in weeks 1-10 and was wide receiver 9 in PPR points per game overall, with analyst expecting him to be a money zone wide receiver in round four.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:04
Will be positioned in the Z position for the Zach Robinson offense, a spot that has historically produced fantasy success.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:05
Had a 49.6% catch rate as a rookie; even a 10% improvement to 58-62% range should significantly boost his production, with yards per route run expected to reach 2.0+ this season.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:05
Yards per route run was 0.74 last year but reached 2.5 during the first five weeks of the season when he was breaking out, indicating significant upside potential.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:08
Received 938 receiving yards last year and could command 20-30 additional targets this season, putting him in a target range similar to Jackson Smith-Njigba's 163 targets.
Insight pagePositiveProjection23:00
Ranked ahead of both Devonta Smith and Zay Flowers in Round 4 WR rankings, positioned as the preferred option among the three.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
NegativeProjection26:00
One analyst is lower on Jalen Hurts than others, which factors into their hesitation on Devonta Smith's ceiling and touchdown expectations.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveRole25:00
Mentioned as a potential pass-catching option on the Eagles that could impact target share, though target competition is expected to be low.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection26:00
Expected to bounce back this year with the Eagles running the football more efficiently and effectively, impacting Devonta Smith's touchdown ceiling.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveProjection28:48
One analyst has Tee Higgins ranked as WR25, placing him behind the Round 4 WRs being discussed, while another analyst ranks him ahead of all three Round 4 options.
Insight pagePositiveProjection29:00
Ranked slightly behind the three Round 4 WRs being compared, positioned just behind them in overall rankings.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue0:11
Going at ADP of 40 in NFFC high-stakes drafting, which is where the sharpest money is currently in draft season.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:11
Coming off a career year with 118 targets, 86 receptions, 1,211 yards, and 5 touchdowns; finished as wide receiver 12 last season with 14.3 points per game.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:12
Will be the entrenched starter and wide receiver 1 in the Ravens offense with an 85% offensive snap share if healthy.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:13
Expected to receive a floor of 115-120 targets this season and had 24 explosive plays last year (4th in NFL), showing he can do a lot with limited volume.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:13
Has improved in every statistical category since his rookie season in 2023: yards, yards per route run, and ADOT all increased, with 2.52 yards per route run (career high) and 10.2 ADOT last year.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:14
Has been healthy and consistent, playing in all games of his three-year career so far, with analyst expecting him to bloom in year four.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:14
Accomplished his breakout season last year while Lamar Jackson was having the worst season of his career, suggesting significant upside if QB play improves.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:15
Ranked as wide receiver 14 by analyst; has a 29% target share and was 31st in route run rate, suggesting opportunity for improvement in offensive usage.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:15
Had 4+ receptions in 13 of 17 games last season, establishing a strong floor for consistency.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:17
Concern about red zone usage and touchdown scoring; despite explosive plays, he hasn't consistently scored touchdowns, which could limit his ceiling.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:18
New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle comes from Sean Payton and Ben Johnson systems; expected to feature yards after catch opportunities, but red zone usage remains uncertain.
Insight pagePositiveProjection23:00
Ranked ahead of Devonta Smith in Round 4 WR comparisons, positioned as a preferred option over Smith.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:53Which wide receivers should you be drafting? Let's get into it.
0:56What is going on, everybody? This is a new show to the Player Profiler Network.
1:01This is the Fantasy Price Check. We've got Jeremiah, we've got Pete, and myself, Wyatt, here.
1:06We're going to be debating players on this show every week to try and help you get all the information you need for your upcoming fantasy drafts.
1:15This week, we are talking about round four wide receivers using the NFCADP.
1:19We've got Jeremiah starting us off. Which player are you interested in?
1:23Hey, I had first pick, so I picked the best player.
1:26You two love Emeka Abuka. I love Emeka Abuka.
1:29He goes 41st overall, and I contend that he's a receiver that you want in round four.
1:34Last year, 17 games played. Not a fully healthy 17 games played.
1:38It didn't feel that way in any manner. 127 targets, 63 receptions.
1:42Funny enough, Ted Arora McMillan, 70 receptions on 122 targets.
1:45I have moved up Emeka Abuka in my rankings above Ted Arora McMillan.
1:49I have him, Emeka Abuka, wide receiver 9 in my dynasty ranks, and I'm expecting a jump for him.
1:55And all the people in fantasy Twitter and in the industry are starting to get keen and wise to the idea of
2:02Emeka Abuka being this year's Jackson Smith and Jigba.
2:05And when you think about the factor of, you took away DK Metcalf.
2:09You had an improvement at quarterback. Things really flew for JSN.
2:13Well, you take away Mike Evans. You get a healthy Baker Mayfield, and things are going to fly for Emeka Abuka.
2:19You have the hamstring injury that Emeka Abuka had in week six, and then we're getting confirmation.
2:25This is really what's getting me bold, too. Baker Mayfield was playing hurt last year for near the entirety of the season.
2:32So that just goes back to, we know there's proximate cause there.
2:35And a big issue, be it with Tyler Warren, Roma Dunze, and on topic Emeka Abuka, is the fact that people remember
2:42second half breakouts, and we have biases towards that.
2:45We don't remember, hey, first half breakouts still count, are still phenomenal.
2:49And there's a psychological thing there where we've seen on tape these players can play.
2:54Circumstantially for Emeka Abuka, all those things that I laid out occurred, and now we're getting a fresh run for him.
3:00And 938 receiving yards he managed. I love last year, week five against the Seahawks.
3:0531 points. Wide receiver one overall that week. Seven targets, seven receptions, a touchdown, 163 receiving yards.
3:11And then the other Super Bowl team, and Christian Gonzalez on the other side.
3:15Week 10, Wyatt. 13 targets, six receptions, 115 receiving yards.
3:18Number three on the week, 23.5 fantasy points per game.
3:21Wide receiver nine in PPR points per game. 16.1 was Emeka Abuka, weeks one through 10.
3:26So really, it's kind of like that Daniel Jones thing where, hey, the first 10 weeks were great.
3:32Everything went downhill afterwards. And it was a hot start, weeks one through five.
3:37He was the overall wide receiver three, Emeka Abuka, in half point PPR scoring and a 22% target share.
3:43Again, you get Mike Evans out of there. Chris Godwin is just going to get peppered with targets in this offense.
3:49But I don't buy the fact that Jalen McMillan and Ted Hurst are going to be on the heels at all of Emeka Abuka.
3:57And we look at the money zone. Theo Gremminger talks about money zone wide receivers all the time in different pockets.
4:03Well, I'm just going to venture to say that it's early in round four.
4:08Emeka Abuka is going to be a money zone wide receiver.
4:11And this time next year, in single quarterback formats, you will see Emeka Abuka as a round one player.
4:17Ooh, I love the boldness here coming from you today, Jeremiah.
4:21It's funny, when we were doing the show sheet for today's show, there was a little bit of fighting over the players
4:28because there's a lot of wide receivers in this round that we like.
4:32And we do like a lot of the same players here.
4:35I really like for Emeka Abuka that he's going to be in that Z position for the Zach Robinson offense.
4:42It's a place that we've seen a lot of fantasy success come from.
4:46Pete, what do you think about Emeka Abuka? Yeah, I'm high on Emeka Abuka as well.
4:51You know, this is a guy that I really, really wanted to talk about.
4:55Just some key numbers of Emeka Abuka to kind of touch on when you talk about last year.
5:01Just a 49.6% catch rate. As a rookie, I expect guys from year one to year two as their kind of timing, their route precision, contested catches.
5:10I think all that should improve for Emeka Abuka.
5:12I mean, 49.6% is pretty low. So even a jump to 10% higher in that 58% to 62% range should do him wonders.
5:20You talk about his yards per route run, which is a big indicator for wide receivers, 0.74% last year.
5:26Even just getting that catch rate up should easily bring him to a 2.0 yards per route run, which is what I expect this year.
5:34And that's, I'm not talking money zone with what Jeremiah said, but it is somewhat the money zone for wide receivers when
5:41you do get into that 2.0 and above threshold at the yards per route run.
5:45So I expect him to be up there and not a lot of target competition outside of Godwin.
5:51I think McMillan and Ted Hurst, they don't really have a dominant tight end in KDOT.
5:56And so I think big things on the horizon for Abuka.
6:00And so I love the call out. And I think second round is definitely, at least second round is in the cards
6:07for him with another good year after this season.
6:09Yeah. And you bring up that yards per route run, but it was actually just like significantly better during those first five
6:16weeks when that breakout was really happening. It was actually around 2.5 to really speak to what Egg Buka was doing.
6:23Many people have said this. I'm not the first.
6:26I'm not going to be the last. But if you just flip Emeka Abuka's season, I think people feel a lot differently about things.
6:33If he peaks at the end of the season, the way we're used to seeing it.
6:39But like you were saying, Jeremiah, like we need to give credit to the beginning of season breakout as well.
6:45Now, if we're going to play devil's advocate real quick, Jeremiah, I'm going to throw it back to you.
6:51You know, the end of the season, he's basically the wide receiver four on the team.
6:56Is this for you? He was dealing with an injury for most of the season.
7:01And was it just, hey, the rest of the team got healthy.
7:04So the Buccaneers were like, you can rest now, King.
7:08Like we've got other players healthy. We need you for next year, too.
7:12Do you think that's what was going on? What I think happened is when he should have rested from that week six
7:19hamstring injury and he played through, it was kind of right around when Mike Evans had come back.
7:24And then Mike Evans had, I believe, gotten hurt or knocked out of a game.
7:29And Emeka Buka kept playing through. I think the playthrough mentality is symptomatic of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a whole.
7:36It starts with their leader, Baker Mayfield, which there's some merit and some honor to that.
7:41But there are certain times where you just have to take a rest to get better.
7:46And I think by the time the team ramped up, Emeka Buka never got to ramp up.
7:51And recall, too, rookies. Your rookie season is the longest calendar year in the NFL of your life, shy of those other
7:58years where maybe you do go to a Super Bowl and go the full way.
8:03You're on for the combine. You're on for all the senior bowls.
8:07You're on for all offseason, every kind of mini camp.
8:10You never stop. You're doing everything for your draft stock up until draft day.
8:14And then you're pushing through into battling in camp where he was getting praise about playing like a veteran from Baker Mayfield.
8:21So it never really stopped. And then you have, in addition, I'm surprised that Emeka Buka actually played 17 full games.
8:28So he just really petered out. And I think it was, look, life's not fair.
8:33But it was unfair to his talent. And we are going to see that change this year with the health for him,
8:40you project health, and with Baker Mayfield. So I'm loving Emeka Buka this year.
8:44And going back to JSN, 163 targets. So we're talking about 127 targets commanded in year one.
8:50So we're talking about even if we got another 20 to 30 targets for Emeka Buka, we're in that target range of somebody like a JSN.
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11:02Let us know about how we're doing. Pete, you are up next.
11:06Tell us about your wide receiver. Yeah. Zay Flowers is the wide receiver that I chose here today.
11:12When you look at Flowers, an ADP right now of 40 in the NFFC, which is the high-stakes drafting.
11:18And the reason we like to use the high-stakes, in my opinion, is just because it's where the sharpest money right now
11:25is currently in draft season at the moment. And with not a lot of drafts that have gone on so far, a
11:32lot of people like to use underdog. The scoring is kind of different in NFC, right?
11:37You're talking PPR. It is the closest format where we've had real strong drafting draft data that we can kind of align with.
11:44And Flowers is going off the board at 40 right now.
11:47Coming off of a career year for Zay Flowers, I mean, you're talking about a player who has been significantly getting better every single year.
11:55But he came off 118 targets this year, career high, 86 receptions, 1,211 yards, 14.1 yards per reception.
12:01And his air yards were 12, 12-04, which was just three yards off his career high the previous season at 12-07.
12:08But five receiving touchdowns, tied for his career high, 14.3 points per game finished as the wide receiver 12 last season.
12:14But when you just look at Zay Flowers, he's going to be the entrenched starter in this offense or wide receiver one in the offense.
12:22I mean, you're talking about an offense that has really Mark Anders, Zay Flowers, and then a bunch of other players that feel like unknowns.
12:30You have Rashad Bateman, who kind of was a darling for some at some point.
12:35A lot of expectations there, and he really hasn't met those expectations.
12:39You have Elijah Surratt. You have some other rookies kind of in the mix there.
12:43And then obviously you have Derrick Henry in the backfield.
12:47But he's not going to take over much when it comes to target share.
12:51But he's stepping in an offense with Declan Doyle.
12:54There is some concern because it's a new offense, right?
12:57You never know how that's going to kind of translate early on.
13:01So there could be some hiccups early on with the offense as Lamar and everybody tries to get integrated and working and getting on the same page.
13:09But with Zay Flowers, I mean, you're getting an 85% most likely offensive snap share if there's no injury at all.
13:16You're talking high volume of targets. You're getting at least a floor of 115 to 120.
13:21And this is a player who's explosive enough to do a lot with a little, right?
13:26115, 120 targets. Yeah, he's not sitting at that 150, 160 range.
13:30But when you look at explosive plays last year, he had 24, which was good enough for fourth in the NFL.
13:37So he's a guy that can take the ball and do a lot with a little.
13:42And I expect him to be utilized heavily in the offense.
13:45So I'm excited to see what he does. Last thing I'll say about Flowers is, you know, since his rookie season, 2023,
13:52he's moved up in every category in yards, yards per outrun and ADOT.
13:56Every single statistical category, right? Last year, he finished at 2.52 yards per outrun.
14:01Highest of his career. His ADOT was 10.2. And then obviously the yards at 1,211 was a career year for him.
14:07He's consistent. He shows up. He plays games. He's healthy.
14:11He's only won in his three-year career so far.
14:13And I think it's big ups. He's starting to bloom in his career going into year four is Zay Flowers.
14:20You're not going to get a lot of pushback from me.
14:23Anyone who's been following any of my content this offseason knows I love Zay Flowers.
14:28I think the most impressive thing about his breakout season last year was he was doing it while Lamar Jackson was having the worst season of his career.
14:37And Zay Flowers was still doing that. Jeremiah, are you in or out on Zay Flowers at his cost?
14:43Oh, absolutely in. And you got to pay the ticket to ride the ride and to experience that.
14:48And you may find yourself just kind of going like, well, wait a second.
14:53He's gone. You go to search in the queue.
14:56It's kind of opposite of when you get older and you keep searching and you have to keep scrolling longer.
15:02And that's offensive because you're like, hey, I found my birth year, but it took a long time.
15:08But it's the opposite effect where Zay Flowers is just gone.
15:11And you're like, crap, I didn't get him. So you have to, especially in a portfolio setting, make sure you're clicking him.
15:18Be on the lookout for him because you will miss him easily because drafters are sharp on him.
15:24You made a good point, Wyatt, about, hey, four games missed last year from Lamar Jackson.
15:29It wasn't a good year for Lamar Jackson. Pete, you brought up a great point about all the metrics going up.
15:36Another metric that has gone up all three seasons incrementally for Zay Flowers, 108 targets, 116, 118.
15:41You made a good point about that cap about 120.
15:44I'd love to see the 130, 135, 140. Can we get 15 to 20 more targets for him?
15:50Four receptions or more in 13 of 17 games last season for Zay Flowers.
15:54The floor is there. He had a 29% target share.
15:57He was 31st in Routh's run. I'd like to see that be reexamined from this offense, from Declan Doyle, and get those
16:04numbers up because I think there's a lot more opportunity there.
16:08And what's even more fun, last year's cast, this year's cast, Jacoby Lane, Elijah Surratt.
16:13We're hearing some good things about Elijah Surratt. Their presence just on the secondary for real NFL is going to help so
16:20much carve things out and prop up Zay Flowers.
16:22It's going to be a beneficial thing. So in fantasy football, you want to pay attention and root for development of other
16:29players and supporting cast of your fantasy football player.
16:32Like let's say you don't have Lamar Jackson. Of course you're going to root for his help and his well-being because that's
16:39going to help and benefit Zay Flowers. But the ancillary parts, you want those ancillary parts to be better and they haven't so far.
16:47So they're getting even better. It's a better setup.
16:50It's just like having good teammates, literally. And it's funny how that effect in this singular game, this proxy of a game
16:57where we just take the individual player. We don't always think about the team effect that goes on.
17:02So the team effect is they're pushing Zay Flowers.
17:05I have him at wide receiver 14. I'd be curious, your gentleman, if you think I had mentioned Emeka Buka is going
17:12to be round one player next year. Do you see him rising from where he is in round four up into round three, two, or one?
17:20So I think that's going to be tough for him to get there.
17:25And I'm going to play the devil's advocate here.
17:27I think I have to on this show because we are talking about a bunch of wide receivers that we really like.
17:34So it's tough to get some debates here going.
17:37But I think the knock against Zay Flowers is his usage in the red zone and the fact that he has had trouble scoring touchdowns in the NFL.
17:46Even with all these explosive plays that Pete noted, he's not getting all the way to the end zone consistently on those explosive plays.
17:54And I think people worry about what that ceiling really is.
17:57I think we would have to see a really big touchdown season from him this year, which I think is possible.
18:04But for him to actually reach those heights, Pete, do you think new offensive system like things can change for Zay Flowers in the red zone?
18:12Can he score more touchdowns? Yeah, I mean, it's a question mark to see how Declan Doyle, you know, how he feels like utilizing him.
18:20I mean, Doyle's, Doyle's tough, right? Because Doyle comes from Sean Payton, right?
18:24He spent, he spent time with Sean Payton. He came over from the Saints.
18:28Then he went to Denver with Payton. And then he spent one year with the Bills in Ben Johnson's offense.
18:35So it's kind of a mixture of, you know, two different offenses.
18:39The one thing I like about it is, like, we can expect a lot of yards after catch chances, right?
18:45I mean, Sean Payton loves to get his players the ball in space to go make plays.
18:50I think we can expect that with Zay Flowers.
18:53But to your point, why, like, you know, can he get to pay dirt, right?
18:58And when they get inside the 20, like, what does that look like for Flowers?
19:03Can he, I mean, that's what's really stopping Flowers from hitting, you know, even bigger.
19:07I mean, we talked about his finish at 12 points per game, 12th and points per game last year.
19:13That was at 14, I think 14 and a half points.
19:17So, like, while it was great, it was also down year for wide receivers.
19:21If receivers have another big jump up this year, right, Flowers is going to need to somehow make up some of that
19:28traction to kind of stay in that wide receiver one threshold like he finished last year.
19:33And I think to your point, Wyatt, it's going to have to come through touchdowns, right?
19:38So it's still yet to be seen. I don't have high confidence that he's going to have a giant spike in touchdowns.
19:45But we could also be surprised. This offense could also open up under Declan Doyle in ways that we just really weren't expecting.
19:53Yeah, I think he's got a couple factors working in his direction a little bit for scoring more touchdowns.
19:59One is just the offense, Declan Doyle, you know, why can't this guy get open in the red zone, right?
20:05Like, I think he can. And just touchdown regression, like, it's not often that a wide receiver getting this many targets scores this few touchdowns.
20:13Like, most of the time, this regresses to the mean a little bit more, and he can score some more touchdowns.
20:20Now, that might only mean seven touchdowns this year.
20:22But, like, that's pretty good when he's doing all these other things.
20:26Like, if he goes for another 1,200 yard, seven touchdowns, like, you're going to be pretty happy with the season you got out of Zay Flowers.
20:34All right. It's time for my player, and we're talking Devonta Smith.
20:38I thought this was cheating slightly because I'm surprised he's even in the fourth round out of the NFFC.
20:44You look in other places, and he is not in the fourth round.
20:48So, it feels a little bit like cheating, but I'm going to take it anyways.
20:53He's wide receiver 17 there at 37th overall. Big news for Devonta Smith, obviously, is that ABJ is gone.
20:59AJ Brown now with the Patriots. And I got to shout out Ryan Heath for this little nugget here about Devonta Smith
21:06in the 187 routes without AJ Brown on the field.
21:09Devonta Smith is wide receiver 9 in yards per route run with 2.59.
21:13Wide receiver 6 in targets per route run with .31.
21:17Wide receiver 4 at expected fantasy points per route run with .61.
21:20This dude is legitimately good. We've known it since the moment he stepped on the NFL field.
21:26He has two 15 PPR points per game seasons while playing next to AJ Brown in this offense.
21:31I know some people might be worried about, you know, they draft McKay Lemon.
21:36They draft Eli Stowers. Dallas Goddard is still there.
21:39How much can this team pass? And I just want to say, I get that all that exists and could be factors,
21:46but this is a player that is just supremely talented.
21:49And he's going to get his first in this offense.
21:52Even if it is a lower volume passing offense, a lot of it's going to Devonta Smith because this is that dude in this offense.
22:00And he is a fantastic wide receiver getting his chance to shine as wide receiver one for this team.
22:06Jeremiah, how are you feeling about Devonta Smith? He's 27 going on 28.
22:10He's heading into his sixth season. We saw rookie year 916 receiving yards and 1,400, almost 1,500 air yards, a double digit,
22:17a fancy points per game rookie debut. So right from the jump, he's been able to generate and garner over 100 targets
22:24every single season, but one in 2024 where he played 13 games.
22:28This is the quote unquote, not even a dead cat bounce because that would be unfair to him.
22:33He hasn't even had like a lull in his career.
22:37He's got a long ways to go, but this is a year to capitalize on Devonta Smith.
22:42He's going to be the one, as you said, he's going to get the preferential treatment.
22:47And hey, if you follow things, hey, he went to the wedding for Devonta Smith.
22:52That really does mean something. It does. They have cohesion and I'm excited for it.
22:57He can high point the football ever since he was at Alabama and you see it in the pros.
23:03Jalen Hurts has to trust him in the red zone.
23:06So I'll be very curious to see. If you recall last year, there were a lot of shovel passes to Dallas Goddard.
23:13I'll be curious how the rest of the league kind of employs that.
23:17A lot of those shovel passes inside where it was that or the tush push.
23:22So what's going to happen beyond just deeper shots for Devonta Smith?
23:25Are we going to get some of those balls lobbed up to him inside the five, inside the 10, where he can
23:32really take off from this pack of field, especially against Emeka Obuka and against Zay Flowers?
23:37I have Devonta Smith as my wide receiver 18 right now.
23:41But that's in Dynasty. I don't see him moving up in ADP next year.
23:45But if there's ever a year for him to be the guy to show us everything unencumbered, unbridled, separate from A.J.
23:52Brown, this is absolutely the year to show it.
23:55But I'm a little bit cautious versus Zay Flowers and Obuka.
23:58So I would just rank it, Obuka, Flowers, Devonta Smith.
24:01I do think Devonta Smith will be a big part of the red zone offense for the Eagles.
24:07You know, Dallas Goddard scoring 11 touchdowns in 2025.
24:10I chalk that up to Kevin Petulo. Dallas Goddard never scored more than five touchdowns in his career prior to last year.
24:17And then Petulo became obsessed with that shovel pass, as you noted.
24:21It seemed like any time they were within five yards here came that shovel pass to Dallas Goddard.
24:26So I do think Devonta Smith is going to get back to being a big part of the red zone offense.
24:33Pete, I know that you, before the show, were kind of mentioning that you're kind of one of the people I mentioned
24:40that is worried about, you know, all the other, you know, pass catching options on the team taking away Devonta Smith.
24:47So let's hear about it. Yeah, I mean, it's not necessarily the pass catching options.
24:51You know, the nice thing is, of course, target competitions is kind of low, right?
24:56What do we expect with Makai Lemon, Stowers? You know, can Stowers get on the field enough in his rookie season to
25:03have an impact on the target share, right? I think it's really more of the touchdowns than it is like the actual
25:10target share, because I do think we will see the tight ends be involved, as Jeremiah mentioned with Goddard last year.
25:17I mean, there was a big area where he shined.
25:20But with Devonta Smith, I mean, I have this offense at the lowest pass rate in the NFL, right?
25:26I have them at 51 and 51.5 in terms of their rush rate.
25:30So I actually have, I have them in Baltimore.
25:33They're like neck and neck right now. And I trust Baltimore, I think, to open it up just a little bit more than the Eagles will this year.
25:42But with Devonta Smith, I mean, look, he feels like a very safe floor play.
25:47Like, I feel like when you look at him, you know, Wyatt mentioned, right, he's gone for actually 15 points three times, right?
25:54In 2024, on a points per game basis, 2022 and 2020, he's had 15 points.
25:59He's cleared it in both, right? Like, I think that's fair expectations.
26:02I feel like Devonta Smith is a guy that you can count on, right?
26:07He stayed on the field. He stayed healthy. I mean, he has one, two, three, four, five, five, five seasons with 17
26:14games where he didn't miss a game. So he's been relatively healthy with Smith.
26:18I just don't know how much the ceiling is up there just because of the touchdowns, right?
26:24I mean, his career high in touchdowns was eight in 2024.
26:27He could absolutely get back to that. I think expectations, I have him somewhere around six just because I still do expect Saquon to bounce back this year.
26:36And I do think that they will run the football more efficiently and effectively this year.
26:41And I think a lot of this also has to do with just my hesitations on Jalen Hurts.
26:47I still am kind of lower on him than other people are.
26:50I think Jeremiah is ranking. I have Devonta Smith at about wide receiver 18.
26:55He's the last one out of these three that I would prefer.
26:59But that doesn't mean I won't have exposure to him.
27:02I'm drafting in probably 15 managed leagues this year for redraft.
27:05So there's a good chance I'll have some exposure to him.
27:09But he feels like a guy to me that's like if I have an elite wide receiver one, if he's my wide receiver two, I feel great.
27:17If I have like running back, running back start and he's my wide receiver one, I don't know how great I feel
27:24about that because I still don't know that he has that inside the top five upside for me.
27:30So I don't know if you have any pushback on that, but that's really where I feel.
27:35I like the player. I think the price is fair.
27:39I just – I'm not there yet. He's the most expensive guy out of the three.
27:44I am happy to be on an island here in this show on Devonta Smith.
27:48I'll happily soak up all of Devonta Smith. I do think that Sean Mannion now in his OC is a big factor here too.
27:56Everyone in the building seems to speak very, very highly of him, whereas like last year with Kevin Batula.
28:02It was actually hard to find some real quality quotes about him, and this seems to happen with the Eagles.
28:08Whenever they do an outside hire for their OC, they get back on the right track.
28:13But every time they've hired inside the building, it's gone poorly.
28:17So we're back on that trend where we're hiring outside the building, and I'm looking forward to it.
28:23But we've got a little bit of time here left, gentlemen, so I'm going to throw you a little bit of a curveball.
28:30And I want to bring in some more players and just give rapid-fire answers from y'all on where you would slot them in with these players.
28:38So I'm going to jump into the third round to see if you have these round four wide receivers ahead of any of them.
28:46How are we feeling about Tee Higgins? Jeremiah, where would you slot in Tee Higgins here?
28:51Right now I have him as wide receiver 25.
28:54So I have him behind these three. Yes. Pete, where do you have Tee Higgins?
28:58I have Tee Higgins ahead of all three of these guys, actually.
29:02I would put Tee Higgins behind all three, but right behind these three.
29:06So I'm a little bit in the middle of both of y'all.
29:10Let's pull in another player, Teterowell McMillan. Jeremiah, where would you have McMillan?
29:14I'm going to have McMillan just behind Ibuka, just ahead of Flowers.
29:18And he's going to be ahead of Devonta Smith.
29:21Pete, how about McMillan? Yeah, I have Flowers, Ibuka ahead of Tet.
29:25And then I have Devonta Smith about two spots behind them.
29:28I would go Smith, Tet, Flowers, Ibuka to wrap this up here.
29:32Big fan of Tet in the second year in that Carolina offense.
29:36I thought he was a fantastic prospect. And he proved it his first year in the NFL.
29:41Boys, I want to end on, we talk about these players.
29:45We're fighting over the players in round four. We're excited for some of these round three wide receivers too.
29:51To me, that kind of signals this year might be time to start off with a couple running backs.
29:57And then you can follow it up with these wide receivers they feel really good about after that.
30:02Gentlemen, this was a great time. Great debates. Love this show.
30:06Hope everyone out there enjoyed it. If you haven't liked and subscribed yet, please do so.
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