The Undrafted - Potty Trained Justin Fields
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 59 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 31, 2026
Published
Mon, August 31, 2026
25
Player insights
24
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsAJ BarnerBo NixCourtland SuttonDeshaun WatsonDrake LondonElijah ArroyoEvan EngramGreg DulcichJ.J. McCarthyJack StrandJames CookJaylen WaddleJeremiyah Love
Player analysis
Player insights
AJ Barner
NegativeBust114:13
AJ Barner is a prototypical inline blocking tight end whose fantasy upside is severely capped by his usage. Historically, tight ends who block on more than 15% of pass plays rarely finish as top-five fantasy options. With Elijah Arroyo potentially siphoning snaps, Barner is a sell candidate.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection41:10
The source acknowledges Bo Nix as the starting quarterback for Denver but expresses skepticism regarding the overall team situation and fantasy outlook.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeRole41:35
Courtland Sutton is projected as the WR2 in Denver and is noted as the only receiver on the team who has consistently held down more than 70% of snaps.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
NegativeValue31:55
Deshaun Watson is viewed as a low-end dynasty asset, useful only in best ball formats as a late-round depth piece (QB36). The source compares his current situation to the Penix/Tua dynamic, noting that he is not a viable starter for competitive dynasty teams.
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveUsage23:38
Drake London is a locked-in first or second-round pick in all formats. The source notes that while London should dominate targets regardless of the quarterback, his target efficiency and volume are expected to be higher with Michael Penix Jr. than with Tua Tagovailoa.
Insight pageElijah Arroyo
PositiveSleeper116:40
Elijah Arroyo is a sleeper candidate who could significantly impact the Seahawks' tight end room. Even if he only plays 30-40% of snaps, his presence could effectively kill the fantasy upside for AJ Barner, making Arroyo a player to watch for potential breakout value.
Insight pageEvan Engram
NegativeValue41:17
The source views Evan Engram as a contingent upside play at best, noting that he failed to capitalize on his opportunities last year and is now being drafted in late rounds of startups.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
NegativeBust41:58
Greg Dulcich is cited as an example of a player who failed to secure a role under Sean Payton after dropping three of eight targets in a single game, leading to his removal from the rotation.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeProjection124:07
In the context of the Vikings' quarterback battle, JJ McCarthy is viewed as a low-upside option compared to Kyler Murray, as he lacks the rushing ability that provides significant fantasy value.
Insight pageJack Strand
NegativeDepth Chart30:33
Despite being a popular dynasty pickup, Andrew Cooper does not believe Jack Strand will be the starting quarterback in Atlanta.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveValue22:35
Andrew Cooper argues against drafting James Cook in the first round of PPR formats, noting he splits pass-down work, splits goal-line work with Josh Allen, and loses late-game snaps to Ray Davis. Cooper highlights that Cook has never exceeded 302 PPR points, making him a 'safe but boring' second-round pick rather than a first-round target.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeRole41:30
The source projects Jalen Waddle as the likely WR1 for Denver, followed by Courtland Sutton, but expresses concern that the offense could devolve into an annoying rotation involving Adam Trautman and Marvin Mims.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeProjection12:18
Andrew Cooper expresses skepticism regarding Jeremiah Love's fantasy outlook due to the Cardinals' poor organizational history and low win projections (over/under 3.5 wins), noting that running backs on losing teams often struggle to reach their ceiling.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveValue49:30
The source is bullish on Josh Downs, projecting 75 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6 touchdowns, viewing him as a high-floor player with significant upside if he secures a full-time role.
Insight pagePositiveValue100:48
Josh Downs is viewed as a player who can already contribute in fantasy lineups even without injuries, providing a safe floor. He possesses additional upside to break out into an every-down player, with the potential to reach the 140-target volume seen by Wan'Dale Robinson.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeInjury57:00
Keenan Allen is noted as a large-bodied receiver who could compete for snaps with Josh Downs, but his fantasy value is hampered by a shoulder injury that limits his ability to absorb contact.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout52:00
The source compares Luther Burden to JSN and CD Lamb, noting that if he hits 1,100 yards in his second year, it would be a successful progression for dynasty managers.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
NegativeProjection20:26
The source believes Michael Penix Jr. is the long-term starter for the Falcons and prefers him over Tua Tagovailoa in dynasty startups. Penix demonstrated the ability to run a clean game, handle pre-snap responsibilities, and avoid unnecessary penalties or fumbles, which the source views as the foundational requirement for NFL quarterback success.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
NegativeValue6:54
Andrew Cooper argues that the recent spike in Mike Washington's ADP following Ashen Gente's injury was a 'sell' opportunity rather than a 'buy,' as drafters were buying at his absolute peak price.
Insight pagePat Bryant
PositiveSleeper43:41
The source likes stashing Pat Bryant in dynasty formats, noting he has a better path to being an every-snap player than Troy Franklin, though he is currently redundant with Courtland Sutton.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeRole45:28
Despite being a fan of RJ Harvey, the source is skeptical of his fantasy outlook due to his reliance on touchdowns and the addition of Jonah Coleman to the backfield rotation.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveBreakout98:24
Terrence Ferguson is a high-upside tight end who demonstrated his potential in week 16 last year by running 37 routes, the second most behind Puka Nacua. While he currently carries contingent upside, he is being positioned for a primary pass-catching role. If he proves effective, he could mirror the year-two breakouts of George Kittle or Trey McBride, potentially becoming the team's third target.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveRole102:29
Trey McBride's early career usage behind Zach Ertz was often misinterpreted by analysts as a lack of talent, but he was simply not the primary target-earning tight end at that time. Now that Ertz has departed, McBride has assumed the primary role, proving he is the guy to own.
Insight pageTroy Franklin
NegativeRole44:00
Troy Franklin is viewed negatively due to his inability to earn consistent snaps, specifically struggling with run-blocking and becoming predictable, which limited him to obvious passing downs.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeProjection20:26
While the source acknowledges Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards, they question if his success is primarily scheme-driven by Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan-style systems. In the short term, Tua may offer more immediate fantasy upside due to his established weapons and quick release, but the source views him as less efficient for Drake London's target production compared to Penix.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:46Just like that at Lowe's. Oh, and welcome to Undrafted, a Dynasty Game Theory podcast brought to you by OTC Fantasy.
0:52I am your host, Scott Belanger, a.k.a. Jax Falcone.
0:54You can find me on Twitter at Dino Game Theory.
0:57This is episode number 253. Let's roll. And we are closing in on the regular season.
1:02It's really redraft time. This is August. I always look at it as redraft.
1:06It's always the time where you're just trying to figure out 2026 or that current year and how it then applies to your Dynasty decisions.
1:13And, you know, of course, everybody's freaking out. The timeline is fast moving.
1:17And I think we're going to get to that, the nonsense, the inanity of it all with my very good friend and fellow asshole, Mr.
1:24Andrew Cooper. Andrew Cooper, welcome back to the program.
1:27How are you doing? I love being here, brother.
1:30I needed to be here, in fact, desperately, because, you know, we got the season coming up.
1:35You know, I got redraft takes, but I love the Dynasty spin.
1:38I love the game theory. And I've been up all night with a three-week-year-old baby.
1:43Three-week-year-old. Yeah. I mean, that's where my brain's at.
1:45I've been awake for three years the last three weeks just thinking about football, dude, and just how things are going to go, man.
1:52So I got a lot of takes, dude, and I want to hit on a lot of it.
1:57And this is the best place to do it.
2:00This is the people that are listening to the show.
2:03This is the high wire act for Mr. Andrew Cooper, working on very, very little sleep.
2:08Delirium has set in, and I'm actually super excited.
2:10I hope I get him giggling, laughing, and all sorts of, you know, sort of weird spots in his head.
2:16So let's do this. The truth serum. The truth serum has hit, dude.
2:20But, you know, it's like this is the best place.
2:23This show is the best place to actually sit down and elaborate on thoughts, meaningful thoughts, actionable information versus just, you know, quick hitters and stuff.
2:31I do a lot of the radio stuff and all that, and it's like, hey, you got to try and get your
2:37takes out in 10 minutes while somebody's going to the store to get smokes, you know, because it's going to be somebody else next segment.
2:44Whereas the listeners to this show, they want deep cuts.
2:47They want to see every angle and then pick their angle.
2:50So that's, this is the perfect time to come on here.
2:54And I'm fired up about it. That is true.
2:56Well, let's start with, so one thing I loved is last night, this is we're recording this on Monday morning.
3:02So Sunday night, Ashen Gente was out for the season and then his ankle hurt.
3:06And for five hours there on Twitter, the reaction to the Gente never was, but was out for the season.
3:12He was a career ender, you know, and I just love it.
3:16I was looking at all the, all the tweets and tweet activity from that point, from the point that it was announced
3:22till basically bedtime, a lot of funny stuff. And now this morning it was like, well, I guess he'll be all right.
3:29You know, and I don't know the update specifically.
3:31I didn't actually check this morning. It sounds like an ankle.
3:35Do you have any update number one, just to clear my record straight meaningfully?
3:39And number two, what did you think about the sort of reaction?
3:42And sometimes I think what we can take advantage of in those sort of crazed moments.
3:47Um, cause dynasty players take action, uh, on news and they do it fast.
3:51Yeah. I'll tell you, I don't have any information on the ankle, whether it's high ankle, what it is.
3:56We know that the ankle sprains can be such a wide variety, like the regular rolled my ankle sprain versus the, the high ankle sprain.
4:04Sometimes you can literally break your leg. Sometimes you have to have the tight rope surgery, all that.
4:09But, uh, I will say this probably the best example we're going to get this year.
4:14And one that everyone should remember for a long time of buy the rumor, sell the news, right?
4:19Like you saw people on best ball having these takes where they're like, yeah, get in there right now and buy Mike Washington.
4:26Uh, but you know, uh, with, with that you were buying him at his highest price, especially in like big tournaments, like
4:32best ball mania, you were never going to compete against the, the literally.
4:36Cause this guy would get drafted in every draft.
4:39Mike Washington was being drafted in 100% of drafts.
4:41So like you were never going to compete with the 80% of people that have already drafted and had him, you know?
4:48Right. So you, the, the move, the only move was to try and get genti for cheap.
4:53And you know what, if you're maxing out best ball mania at 150 contest, I can afford to try.
4:58I tried it. I didn't get them. Somebody still took them in the second round, but it's like, you know, I can
5:05afford to throw 25 bucks at him. And same thing with dynasty.
5:08It's like, if you like the player by the player, right?
5:11Because, uh, you know, this today's age with these ACLs, as long as they're clean guys are coming back and they're coming back quick.
5:18Like I just heard Chris bell is potentially cleared to, to start football activity here and get going.
5:24So, uh, for me, I liked the player in dynasty.
5:26I truly hate the organization though. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
5:29Well, you're not going to be any pushback from me there player.
5:33Uh, but listen, this also reminds me of the fact like, okay, so with Jeremiah love hurting himself, then ash and genti, it just sort of reminded me.
5:41Be ready for the chaos, be ready for the chaos.
5:44It is going to be so, I hate injuries, but they're inevitable and they are going to strike in ways that we
5:50have no clue and have no expectation and never see it coming.
5:54You know, it's like the sheep with the knife.
5:56They never see the knife. They, uh, they bleed out.
5:59Right. Um, but the point of the matter here is that I think, by the way, I just read, uh, um, a
6:06little update Schefter, Nick Botiford actually posted on NBC sports edge.
6:09So just, uh, they, they don't know the severity, but that the, the organization breathed the sigh of relief in quotes.
6:15Um, so it sounds like, you know, it'll be okay.
6:18Um, you know, who knows, maybe he's ready by week one.
6:21So the Mike Washington trade highs were won by the sellers, not the buyers.
6:25It would appear. We'll see. Yeah. And the thing is, if you had genti and you overpaid on Mike Washington, you know what?
6:32I think that's fine. I like Mike Washington. I think as far as there are a lot more boring players, put it that way.
6:39Right. Well, at least this guy has some juice.
6:42He's got some explosiveness. He looked good in preseason.
6:44Like, and you know what dynasty is one of the few formats where I will sometimes corner backfield and handcuff to some degree.
6:51Versus the other ones where I really don't like handcuffing, you know, but, uh, in certain situations.
6:56And I will say this about the Raiders. Cause I did say, I hate them.
7:00I am optimistic. I do like Clint Kubiak. I like Rick Denison, everybody he brought in.
7:05Uh, you know, we're hoping Tom Brady can be that guy that like takes over, you know, like there are, there have
7:11been bad organizations that did come in and take, bring in a true football man.
7:16And say, you're just going to be, we need you to go in between ownership and the team and just run everything.
7:22Like I love Dean Spanos, who I'd never liked for the chargers bring in, you know, Jim Harbaugh and saying, okay, you're just going to run everything.
7:30Now you're going to be our football guy. There are so many organizations that need that.
7:35Right. I'll say right now, we, you mentioned Jeremiah love the Cardinals.
7:38Truly one of the worst organizations all time, right?
7:41Like they've been around for 100 years and they are tied for the same number of playoff wins as the Houston Texans who became a team in 2002.
7:49And Michael did well. That's terrible. Brodell. Dude. Why?
7:52I was looking it up. Cause people are like, Oh yeah, they won championships.
7:56The championships they won before the Superbowl era. One was in 1925.
7:59And even you look at the, you look it up and there are people, there are people that try, let's say the
8:06Pottsville Maroons should have won that year. Back then they just said, whoever had the best record wins.
8:11And to the point where they actually brought it to the committee, like a few years back, I remember Pittsburgh wanted it
8:17changed because they have that as part of their record, but they didn't change it.
8:22But like that doesn't even count. But this organization, Michael Bidwell makes himself president.
8:26It's a joke. And that does work. That's like one of the only things that worries me about Jeremiah love is that
8:32like, this team has had good players come through bad organizations.
8:36A lot of them have good players come through and they, when they, those teams aren't actually good and they don't capitalize that hurts everybody involved.
8:43Like Baker Mayfield turns out he's good. Browns couldn't handle it.
8:46Sam Darnold is good. Couldn't, you know, jets and Panthers couldn't handle it.
8:50I just worry that this team, they just had both Mayfield and Darnold on the same.
8:55Couldn't figure it out. Couldn't figure it out. Cause Tepper, Tepper is a terrible owner.
8:59And like the Cardinals, they couldn't win a game of Russian roulette with bullets in the gun.
9:04You know what I mean? It was like, they couldn't, they couldn't, they couldn't fully loaded gun shooting second.
9:10Right. Like it literally is. These teams are that bad.
9:13I mean, the Cardinals at one point drafted Larry Fitzgerald one year.
9:16And then the very next year drafted Anquan Bolden.
9:19Yeah. And those guys combined for what? Like 70, years of high end football.
9:23They're literally like player four and 12 all time in receiving yards.
9:26They couldn't win with those guys. So like, I just worry that this team is never going to be good.
9:32And running, running is the luxury of the winning team.
9:35Yeah. So like you, when you draft a running back, who's a first round pick and they're going to pick up the
9:42fifth round option, you to some degree are betting on the organization.
9:45Are you not? Yeah. Yeah. Well, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't depress me on Jeremy.
9:49I love what I will ask you though, about Gentry is number one, where, you know, maybe you have your rankings, your
9:56redraft rankings up, not your dynasty rankings. I'm kind of curious about, cause I had, you know, I wasn't too excited about
10:02Gentry nor Jeremiah love, obviously with the Jeremiah love injury, I moved him back as well in redraft rankings, but neither of
10:09them really moved for me in dynasty. Because I feel like just because they're like maybe a borderline RB one or two
10:15in redraft doesn't make them a bad bet and dynasty specifically, just because they're so talented and situations change.
10:21I would expect the situations to change with number one, Fernando Mendoza and the organization of the Raiders potentially getting a little
10:27bit better with, you know, the influence of, uh, of Brady, et cetera.
10:31But, you know, I, I specifically think Mendoza is something that can change that organization, Arizona, they're probably going to pick up
10:37a quarterback early in round one, uh, this year.
10:40So that should change for them going forward. We'll see about organizational structure and stability aside, which is a problem for sure.
10:46But, you know, you can still be prolific without that.
10:49You just probably won't win at a high level.
10:52All that to say, I am kind of curious as to what our expectations are of these two players.
10:58And are you drafting either of them in redraft at all?
11:01Yeah. I mean, I'm drafting gente and redraft assuming he's healthy just because I do believe in Clint Kubiak in this crew.
11:07I mentioned the name Rick Dennison earlier. He's like a, a O-line guru whisperer.
11:11I mean, like they, that team, the Seahawks team had the worst continuity on the offensive line of any team that team, that offensive line was terrible.
11:19One of their, their, one of their guards retired during the season.
11:23Connor Williams retired during the season. Like that's how bad it was.
11:26And they came in and basically went out and got Gray's able, right.
11:30Who was the most, one of the most athletic, uh, you know, uh, guards of all time.
11:35Uh, and he can pull and do all sorts of crazy stuff.
11:38I don't think people realize that like Tyler Linderbaum, I was looking up three cone drill for lineman.
11:44I actually don't know if there's any center that's ever had a better three cone drill.
11:48Like this guy, there's so many clips of him pulling as a center, which is nonsense.
11:53Uh, like he is such a weapon for, for these type guys because they run, everyone knows that they run a lot of zone, right?
12:00The zone rushing. But what Kubiak does so well is the moment you load up that line, he hits you with a man on man or gap scheme.
12:09And he just pulls somebody you don't expect to pull or brings a tight end down on a wham block and just
12:15pulls your pants right down with like a crazy chunk play.
12:18And it is so fun to watch when it works.
12:21And I do believe in those guys, you know?
12:24So I guess earlier when I said, I hate the organization, it's just historically they've done things wrong, but now they're bringing in the right guys.
12:31Hopefully they do. Um, so for me, I have no problem drafting gente with that hope with Jeremiah love.
12:37I wasn't really drafting him in redraft already, even before the injury, just because this Cardinals team.
12:42Like they, if running is the luxury of the winning team, this team Vegas has them set it over under three and
12:48a half wins, three and a half. That is, you can bet on them winning four games.
12:53That is terrible. In, in redraft though, real quick, gente, obviously behind B.
12:57John Gibbs, McCaffrey, JT. There's this next group I have, at least.
13:01And I think a lot of people would kind of agree.
13:04James cook, H and Ken Walker, chase Brown, Derek Henry.
13:07I think that's probably a, he's past that. Isn't he behind that for sure?
13:11Or. Jandy. Yeah. No, not for me. Not for me.
13:14Not with this. Well, now with the, now with the injury side.
13:17So before that I was, yeah, before that, Jenty and Kenneth Walker were two guys that, and we all do this, even
13:24whether we like to, to admit it or not, we all have the, the mental swing, the swing pick wall.
13:30Right. You know what I'm talking about? You, you have pick 12 and you, you, no matter what, you're not letting certain players get past you.
13:37Yeah. They're just not going to get by you.
13:40Like for me, I look at CD lamb. Right.
13:42And, and for like, if I have two picks, he's just not going to get past me.
13:47You know what I mean? So Jenty and Kenneth Walker have been that for me.
13:52Like I'll let James cook go by, especially in full PPR.
13:55I don't think people realize that James cook that role.
13:58He doesn't get, he splits the pass down work.
14:01He splits the goal line work right down the middle with Josh Allen.
14:04And he gives up the late lead work to Ray Davis.
14:08So like, whereas Saquon Barkley and some of these guys are playing the whole game, he's giving up some of that work in full PPR.
14:15This guy has had, what do you have last year?
14:181500 yards from scrimmage, 1800. I mean, ridiculous yards from scrimmage last year.
14:22And also scored 18 touchdowns the year before that he he's maxed out at 300 PPR points, right?
14:27That's the most he's ever scored is like 302.
14:29Whereas guys like CD lamb has scored over 400.
14:32Jamar chase has scored over 400. Uh, Christian McCaffrey last year scored 417.
14:36Uh, Trey McBride scored more PPR points. Then last year than James cook ever has.
14:40So my question to people that are drafting him as a first round pick is like what unlocks the ceiling for him?
14:47Because an injury to Josh Allen, cause you talk about more touchdowns, which he's already getting plenty, but like an injury to Josh Allen doesn't help me.
14:55I, an injury to Ty Johnson where they actually will turn around and throw this guy 60 passes.
15:00Could be it maybe, but like, maybe, you know, it's like, he's probably the most safe, but boring pick there is, which
15:06is perfect to me as a second round pick, but he's not a first round pick.
15:11He's just not a first round pick. And in standard he is in half PPR.
15:15Yeah. So is Derek Henry. Yeah. In standard Derek Henry, right?
15:19Like I treat James cook the same way I treat Derek Henry.
15:22Like if he's not going to get, you know, 70 targets like Ashton Gentry got what 73, if he's not going to
15:28get 70 targets, then he's not a first round pick in PPR for me.
15:33That's fair. Um, okay. Jeremiah love, um, we're going to talk about Jeremiah love and I have a couple of questions about Jeremiah.
15:39My love and some more stuff. Uh, we're going to get to that right after this.
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16:01Symptoms noted are signs of mild to moderate dehydration.
16:04Consult a healthcare professional if symptoms persist. Now at Lowe's faster quotes started the Lowe's pro desk.
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16:31Just like that at Lowe's. Welcome back to the program.
16:34Andrew Cooper and Jax Falcone here with you. Andrew, tell everybody a little bit where you're at, where they can find your
16:40awesome work because they deserve to know. Uh, love, love everything you're doing.
16:44So tell the people. Yeah. If you follow me on the Twitter machine, coop a fiasco, I share all my articles and
16:50some fun tidbits for free over there. Also, if you want free nuance takes coop, there it is on Reddit.
16:56I always find myself just posting like a big wall.
16:59Every once in a while, I just see something.
17:02I'm like, I'm just going to write an article in these comments real quick to this one random person.
17:07So, uh, you can find my stuff there. I post a lot for free.
17:11I'll also, uh, the fantasy alarm draft guide is out now.
17:15Uh, and actually, you know what? Don't buy the draft guide.
17:18Don't buy the fancy alarm draft guide because promo code coop 25 gets you a discount on the all pro, which has everything, including the draft guide.
17:26And that brings that down to the price of the draft guide.
17:29So that first month, and you can cancel out the first month if you don't like it, but don't buy the draft.
17:36If you want the draft, if you want all my takes, just get the month and it comes with the draft guide
17:42and it comes with all the first couple of months of our rankings, the DFS, all sports.
17:47So you can get our MMA. Our MMA guy doesn't miss.
17:50Like he takes down like the, the, the left hook himself.
17:53That's the only problem. He keeps winning himself. Uh, but yeah, so all our stuff, PGA, whatever.
17:58So that's what I got going on, man. A serious XM too, for, for the show.
18:03I was going to say, you got to mention the serious XM stuff.
18:07Yeah. Got a lot going on right now, man.
18:10Got a, got a new baby, but I had to say to my, you know, it was all those things where it's
18:16like, how, how do I get in and just get all my takes out?
18:20All my hot takes in one spot here real quick on a show.
18:24And this is the perfect avenue for that. Here you are.
18:27Well, let's, let's, uh, let's not interrupt you from doing so.
18:30Um, I want to ask you to, uh, versus Penix.
18:33It's kind of been hot topic. It's been neither of them.
18:36It's been this guy, Jack Strand, who I think is, uh, you know, a popular dynasty pickup.
18:41Everybody's picking them up in dynasty. Um, is it going to be Jack Strand?
18:45No, I don't think so. Who's going to be the starter in Atlanta, maybe week one.
18:50And then who's going to be the starter for the most games in Atlanta?
18:54Um, I think the, the way I play it almost always is you, I lean into this idea that the start, whoever
19:01starts is going to be the guy. Right. And I do that for a couple of reasons.
19:06One, because obviously they're most likely to be the guy for the entire season.
19:10Two, because it's very rare unless the quarterback coming in is like a hyper mobile guy.
19:14It's very rare for the backup to come in and then be fantasy relevant because the team needs to do poorly for that to happen.
19:22So it's just how often do we see a guy start and then he's playing terrible and the team looks terrible and
19:28then he gets benched and then the backup comes in and all of a sudden things are great.
19:33Like that does just doesn't happen that much. Oftentimes it's that conditions are bad.
19:37The better guy got a chance. The second guy played worse, which is why he didn't get the job.
19:43And then when he comes in, it's bad. The minor examples, the exceptions would obviously be the mobile guys.
19:49Like, you know, Jackson dark came in last year, uh, after Russell Wilson failed and he ran a ton, but were the giants good?
19:56No. You know what I mean? Like it was just the mobile upside was a difference maker.
20:01Can you think of any examples really of like a time where a team benched their, you know, their starter and then
20:07the backup very young backup came in and then all of a sudden, like he was just throwing three, four touchdown passes
20:13and we were starting him in fantasy. No, but I'm also was not prepared for that question.
20:18I bet we could find one. I bet we could, I bet we could find one.
20:23Yes, totally. But true. I do agree with that.
20:26I also think though, this is more of a unique situation where I think Penix is the starter, but because he's hurt,
20:32I think two of them might get the first shot, but I think it's, I think they want Penix.
20:38I think they want that to be the guy that ends up taking them where they need to go.
20:43Right. For sure. I mean, they, they invested in them.
20:46They have the fifth round. They have the fifth year option.
20:49Tua is on this one year deal. They would have to pay him like big money.
20:54I think it was, I will say this. I don't think enough people are given the Falcons credit for this, for this
21:00move that they've done where I think it's a genius play.
21:04Right. Right. Like the year, there is a world where Mike McDaniel is just the man and the scheme that Kyle Shanahan
21:10is kind of curated here with the fullback and the tight ends and the priest that motion is just makes anyone look good.
21:17Like Brock Purdy's had some incredible years to a led the league in passing yards and CJ Stroud with Bobby Sloak looked really good.
21:24And the saints under Clint Kubiak scored 90 points.
21:26Those first two games for everyone got hurt. And then the Seahawks won the Superbowl.
21:31I mean like, okay. I just made the argument that like Tua probably is maybe bad.
21:36And the scheme has just been what's friendly for him.
21:38Right. But like, can we give the Falcons credit for taking a chance on this guy and also finding one of the
21:45few goddamn left-handed quarterbacks where you don't need to switch everything around?
21:48It's like, and you also, the dolphins are paying him.
21:51So you don't have to pay him anything. Right.
21:54Veteran minimum. I mean like as a Falcons fan, I can't see why anyone would be upset with trying it.
22:00A thousand. I couldn't agree more with that. Exactly.
22:02It's a, it's a free look at a guy who could be good.
22:06Was remember the tank for Tua? Like we thought he was going to be the man.
22:11Now there were people who were a little bit, but nobody thought he was like bad then, you know?
22:16So yeah, I think. That old class is great.
22:19That old class, all those quarterbacks are NFL caliber quarterbacks, including Tua.
22:23Like whether he's ends up being a journeyman backup, whatever, like he's a frigging millionaire that led the league in passing yards once.
22:29Yeah. So NFL quarterback, right. And he's, he's had a number of injuries obviously as has panic.
22:34So I think they're probably just like, Hey, if we've got two, maybe we've got one.
22:39Of course the old saying is if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have one.
22:43Right. You know? So, right. Right. But at the end of the day, you know, if they can, you know, Frankenstein this
22:50thing and get enough out of it. I do think the reason I guess I ask is less about Tua Penix, although I am making that bet.
22:58I have bet on Penix over Tua in a couple of startups that I've done recently where I'm okay.
23:03Taking Penix and waiting, you know, obviously in the range that we're drafting these guys in dynasty startups, they are backups.
23:09So you're not like, Oh, I need them to start day one.
23:13Um, although in one startup I did, I kind of need somebody out of there to start, but long story short is like, you're basically drafting his backup.
23:21So it's just, Hey, you know, over the course of the next couple of years, which guy's going to actually surface as meaningful, if any.
23:28And I would bet that it's Penix more than Tua.
23:31And I also then asked the question because I think it really spells a different, uh, season for Drake London, who we
23:38all have as a first or second round pick in every format, you know, Drake London, you know, obviously should dominate targets one way or the other.
23:46But I think those targets are far less efficient and, and plentiful with Tua than they are with Penix.
23:51Yeah. I mean, cause to wait to a place to play into Tua strengths is like, he's very good at getting the
23:58ball out quickly and throwing to a spot. In fact, uh, the only guy that was getting the ball out faster than Tua last year was Phillip rivers.
24:06And some people say that that's because he's not good, but I mean, when you watch the film and what's funny, somebody
24:12showed me a clip of, uh, they reversed it.
24:15So it looks like it's right-handed. Yeah. Uh, like his release is very quick and very efficient.
24:20And that's why Tyreek Hill was so good with him because like he would just, you know, they do that orbit motion
24:26behind and he would turn and he would find the spots.
24:29That's the thing. He could sell play action really well because he can turn away from the field, but then turn and find the spots.
24:37I just think that, you know, you're right. If you were shooting for upside, Penix has the bigger arm.
24:42He's got the bigger upside. Uh, definitely the more interesting player is just, I I've such a, redraft kind of, uh, brain
24:49here, which we talked about before you brought me on.
24:52That's why I want you. Right. Then my thought process is like, what's going to crack my lineup.
24:57And that translates to, uh, dynasty when you're competing more than anything.
25:00I just tell them, I tell my guys, I'm like, look, if you're a top three team in your league, use my redraft rankings, like win the league.
25:09It's so hard. There are so many teams I've had that are just like in incredible, like ridiculous.
25:14The, the year, the Saquon Barkley year there, I had Saquon Barkley, Derek Henry, Devon H and like my lane, my lineup couldn't have been better.
25:21And I came in second place. Like it's so damn hard that when you have a shot to win, just play to win.
25:28So when I look at these situations and you're trying to compete now, I asked myself who has the, who has the
25:35better shot of having a monster breakout year right now.
25:38It is to because the weapons are good. And Stefanski can steam guys up as Stefanski fits the scheme because he loves
25:44going through the X and the Y, which they do have a good X and Y and they have a good running back.
25:51Right. So like for me, I asked myself who has a better short-term upside.
25:55It's gotta be to, you know, but for long-term I, if I was doing a startup now, I would draft Penix over too.
26:02I believe in him. And he actually was doing something last year.
26:05You know, when you were evaluating quarterbacks, I encourage people start at the very bottom with the young guys.
26:11Like, can they run a clean game? Right. And this was, this, what I love about Fernando Mendoza.
26:16You watch that first game. I don't even care about the interception.
26:19Right. Like our guys lining up in the right spot.
26:22Right. Or is the, the damn play clock going down to one every time?
26:26Uh, are there, are there, uh, unnecessary penalties? Are there, is he calling a timeout?
26:31When a quarterback wastes a timeout that to me, I checked that off and I say that he didn't know what he was doing there.
26:38But that is, that to me is as bad as a, uh, a penalty.
26:42But you go and look at the teams that led the league last year in a legal formation in, uh, you know,
26:49uh, 10 guys on the field, things like that.
26:51It was, it was the Vikings and it was the Titans.
26:54Right. And Michael Penix actually could play. He, he was playing a pretty clean game.
26:59Like when you're first evaluating quarterbacks, can they get everybody in the right spot?
27:03Can they handle the snap without fumbling it? Can they hand the ball off without turning around and being like, Oh, you know what I mean?
27:10Like, don't, that is what matters most of the very beginning for quarterbacks.
27:14Then can they play run the office? Then it's, can they make special plays?
27:18And a lot of these guys, you'd be surprised how many guys can't do that.
27:23You can do the first part. Michael Penix last year proved to me that he can't.
27:27Yeah. It's a great point. It's a great point.
27:30I enjoyed watching him because, you know, I think of it all the time.
27:34Like there's so much that has to happen. A joke.
27:37Kuvitakis and I were talking about Joe Milton and how he looked great and how he's looked great in spots.
27:43And I said, yeah, he's probably good. He's probably better than we gave him credit for.
27:48He's probably pretty good. I said, I said, to Joe, I said, however, I think over the course of a season, it
27:54might get, you know, he might get overwhelmed because of, you know, there's always the, what you're doing and then the reaction to it.
28:01And then you try, then you fix that. And then they, they come at you a different way.
28:06There's constantly that happening. So you're constantly needing to do something different.
28:10It's kind of the difference between a player, a quarterback who has the, the 10 or 20 or whatever they have scripted plays at the beginning.
28:17Caleb Williams was, you know, sort of, we looked at this, these splits last, uh, last year where, you know, the first few scripted plays was like good.
28:26And then he would fall apart. And it's like, those are the things that are harder to do.
28:31And it doesn't mean you're dumb or that you're not good.
28:34It's just really fucking hard. And to hear Tom Brady talk about it.
28:38Sometimes you're like, Holy smokes, the levels that these players have to play at pre snap to get everything dialed in and
28:44to do so in, you know, 15 seconds or whatever.
28:47I mean, yeah, if you're no huddle, I guess you got 30 ish seconds.
28:51Right. But you really have a fast amount of time to be able to do so.
28:56To diagnose what they're doing. And usually they're not going to show you anyway, they're going to really show you something false and be moving to something else.
29:04You have to figure that out. I mean, it's just incredible.
29:07Communicate that to the offense and then go execute.
29:10So yeah, you're absolutely right. There's so much happening that, you know, we tend to think, so I love the clean game thing and yeah.
29:17Yeah. It's become impossible. Vic Fangio and those guys have made it impossible because it used to be that you would split the field, right?
29:25As a quarterback, you go and like, I played a little quarterback in high school.
29:29It's what makes me laugh so much about like these people that are like, if you never played the game, you can't analyze the game.
29:36I'm like, dude, more, so much more about the classes I took in college regarding statistics and spreadsheets made me better at
29:43analyzing the game than playing the game. You know what I mean?
29:46But like, there are things you remember from the time where it's like, it used to be that you would like split the field in half.
29:54That's what you would basically do. Like a lot of offenses, this is how they would kind of, one of the cheat
30:00codes was like, you come out and on your right side, you have plays that work against cover two with, you know,
30:07two safeties and guys on the side. And on the left side, you have a play that'll work against, you know, cover three with a single high safety.
30:15And you go and you split the field and you say to yourself, however they line up, I'm going to do this
30:21on this side and this on that side. Right.
30:24You basically do the, why that would work previously is that like, even when they disguised coverages after the snap, if you
30:30then recognize they were disguising it, you would just turn and throw a laugh.
30:34Right. But now Fangio and them have this like, you know, cover nine, which in covers, cover six is basically cover two
30:41on one side and cover four on the other side.
30:44Yeah. So you look at one side and then you say, Oh my God, they're playing this on this side.
30:50I'll just turn and throw it this way, but they're playing a different coverage on the other side.
30:55Yes. And then on top of that, they're doing the palms coverage where it's a set of rules that are like, if
31:01this, then that, you know, this guy releases North, then you cover this guy.
31:05So you come out with the same look against the same defense and, and your offense is in the same, everyone's in
31:12the same spot, but you're thinking, okay, well, we, we, we're going to have guys go different ways.
31:17They have now have defensive plays where if you go different ways, they're going to do something different.
31:22And it's a real, it really messes with these QBs to the point where people are now regressing to linear progressions and
31:29just kind of also locking on to guys they love and also dumping it down underneath and using more jumbo tight end sets.
31:36Like all this translates to fantasy in a way that makes the game so much more difficult.
31:41And it really plays into smarter quarterbacks than just big, strong guys that could throw a strawberry through a battleship or runner.
31:47You know what I mean? Like you have to be able to think now.
31:51Speaking of the thinking man's quarterback, Deshaun Watson got named the starter this morning.
31:55You know, this is the same type of bet.
31:58I think as the Penix to a bet, just probably a bit cheaper on both of them is the Shador Deshaun Watson split in dynasty.
32:05What are your thoughts about this situation and maybe how it, you know, pertains to the, you know, to the weapons there?
32:12Yeah. I mean, like in any sort of meaningful dynasty league, you're not going to compete to win with any of those
32:18quarterbacks as your starter this season, you know? So like that, those plays are literally limited to best ball being like, all right, Deshaun Watson's QB 36, whatever.
32:26I already took Jerry Judy and, you know, round 17.
32:29I'll take him around 18. I will say the old, the one guy I'm stashing in deep leagues is Taylor green and I'm stashing it.
32:36And it's as simple as this. It doesn't need to be a long take.
32:40He can run. He can run. He's a freak, right?
32:43I I'm stashing Taylor green. I mean, you'll love this Jax on the off chance.
32:48First, if he plays quarterback, great. But if he doesn't play quarterback, I'm begging someone to convert this guy to tight end.
32:54Yeah. Because like, if you take his 40 time and his size and his weight, even like he's big, this guy's huge
33:01on two 30 and, and convey, yeah, six, six, two 30.
33:04It's like put on 10 pounds, put on 15 pounds.
33:07And he's Kyle pits. Yep. He's faster. Kyle pits, right?
33:10Like put on, put on 20 pounds. He's Vernon Davis.
33:13You know what I mean? Like, so this is kind of a freak athlete and we've seen it before.
33:18I mean, Logan Thomas, not even that much of a freak athlete finished tight end three.
33:23He was a key came in league as a quarterback playing no 10.
33:27He was a new chuffed mother Cardinals as a quarterback.
33:30We watched it with, um, troll prior thousand yard receiving season.
33:33Like, um, Um, yeah, he's good. He's good. Right.
33:35Exactly. Yeah. He's good. He's good. And this guy's like a freak is away.
33:39So like, yeah, those are the exact kind of guys that'll stash Cole Payton.
33:44Right. Um, just on the, yeah, rushing is broken, right.
33:46Rushing is until he fix it. Somehow. I don't want him to fix it.
33:51Sleeper is trying to fix it. Do you see what sleeper did?
33:54What they do? I think they added. Yeah. They added a, uh, a ability to make QB rushing touchdowns only with four points.
34:01No, thank you. Right. It's like, that's too, you know what?
34:04I'm thinking to myself, I'm like, you know what, if that was always the way it was, then fine.
34:10That actually probably makes some sense, I guess, but not even really.
34:13But like, we're too good at taking advantage of it.
34:16I don't want that. I don't want, I don't want you to take away a P the one of the few pieces of leverage that we have.
34:24Well, I've fixed it in my leagues, which is putting in something for completions and incompletions.
34:29So you've, you've fixed everything that I tell you, I tell people all the time.
34:33I'm like, Jack's, I blame you too. If they, people don't like it.
34:37I said, well, Jack's, that's what I said. I just say, well, Jack's, Jack's Falcon, just look it up.
34:42But half point, half point, half point, half point, half point, right?
34:46Half point, that's the first downs, half point receiving.
34:48And people, again, when people complain, I send them your way, but, uh, it is the, first down.
34:54And, and then you can F with that a little bit.
34:57Like we have, you know, we just have, I've, I just started a startup league.
35:01That's like, you know, a few more iterations and variations off of that.
35:05And we'll see how it goes. Like I, I usually do like a very, very small amount for completion and completion, um,
35:12which was, you know, plus 0.1 minus 0.1 or plus 0.2 minus 0.2.
35:15This most recent league I did was plus 0.1 and minus 0.3 for an incompletion, which is like terrifying.
35:21You know what I mean? It's like, you know, because you could have a few like late, like just throw it.
35:27Yeah, it's real estate. So you look at your percentage and efficiency, you go, I still want to, I want a good quarterback.
35:34Like, I don't want a guy who's just chucking it around.
35:37You know, Jameis Winston is worth less than that type of a league because he's, you know, erratic or whatever, you know?
35:43So you want a guy who's just like you said, who's keeping the, you know, keeping things going on time.
35:49So the, the, and the thing is with fantasy, there are definitely little tweaks like that, that just really improve your, uh, your experience as a viewer, right?
35:57Like I want to be rooting for the right things, right?
36:01When you watch football and you just sit there, I love when the playoffs come around.
36:05Cause it's like, you don't have any fantasy stakes.
36:08You're rooting for the same thing. The team's rooting for all that matters is conversions.
36:12Right. So like, yeah, right. So I love adding little things.
36:16I add, I also add 35 points, uh, 35 yards.
36:18Yeah. 35 points for that's again, no sleep, no sleep till Brooklyn, but 35 yards for point for return yards.
36:24Yeah. Because you see a guy, you know, um, Danny Amendola used to do all the time.
36:29He used to rip off like a 70 yard kick or punt return and get tackled five yards from the end zone.
36:36And then in fantasy, you like, wow, everyone's going crazy.
36:39The entire building's going nuts. It's a massive, massive play, uh, in real life.
36:43And in fantasy it was, it's worth zero points.
36:45Yeah. If a guy rips off a 40 yard punt return, everybody gets up and they're fired up and it's high fives everywhere.
36:52That's worth nothing in most leagues. In my league, it's a point one.
36:56You know what I mean? Which is, it's not going to change anything, but it gives you something.
37:01So the thing I would love to do on that is the way that we would fix that.
37:06And we'll, we're going to do that on OTC.
37:09I'm going to fix it. They're listening right now.
37:12God bless us. Would be that a individual punt return.
37:15Like what's a normal punt return, 10 yards or something, you know?
37:18So normal punt return is a fair catch. Like it really is.
37:22You know what I mean? Really not a lot of that, right?
37:25Like just a little bit and then all of a sudden, okay, good, good work, bro.
37:30You advanced it. Um, so maybe it's like on an individual punt return, you know, anything over 10 becomes, you know, now
37:36it's like a, a 0.1 per yard or something where it's like now a 30 yard return is like 22 points or something, you know, 40, whatever.
37:44So, you know, each return. So that way you're not getting something like you had like 10 punt returns because you know,
37:51whatever you had like a hundred yards. You're like, dude, you didn't even do shit on any of those.
37:56You just had, but that's only two points though.
37:59That's only three points. So, you know what I mean?
38:02So the individual return gets like, so 70 would be like a six, six point play, you know?
38:07So they got to make the big play, the meaningful play, the meaningful.
38:11I mean, that's maybe we'll figure out just what number that is.
38:14Yeah. That could be a little better, but really there aren't a lot of games where you're just returning all these punts.
38:21Like for it's either, it's usually you rip off one chunk and you get, you get there that same thing on kick return though, too.
38:28Right. Kick returns are like 20 yards, like a 20 yard return returns a little different.
38:33Yeah. So like that would be 20 yards is zero, 30 yards is one, 40 yards is two or something.
38:38You know what I mean? Where, you know, each individual kick return, you won't get shit for just doing a normal thing
38:45where you just run for 20 yards and get tackled.
38:48Cause that's what happens every time. Even the best kick returners will have like a thousand yards, which is a lot.
38:54And that's like 30, that's like 30 points, 25, 30 points extra, which you know what?
38:59Like those are meaningful plays. So I like having that.
39:02And the last thing before we move on is I do like having points per fourth down stop for team defense, just
39:08because like, that's such a meaningful play. And you know, you can make the argument of like, Oh, that just happens because
39:14blah, blah, blah, that you're in this situation. It only happens when, when the defense actually has the offenses back in a
39:21situation where they have to go for it. You know what I mean?
39:25Yeah. And also it's defense doesn't have a lot of those, those moments where there's buildup like interceptions are great.
39:30Obviously pick sixes are incredible, but there's no like buildup to that moment.
39:34Fourth down as a fantasy football watcher gives you something to say a thousand percent.
39:39Here we go. Right. My defense can score a point or two points right now.
39:43And I, here we go. We're either going to get it or we're not, you know, that's a nice moment.
39:49Excuse me. You can even do third down conversion rate.
39:52So basically any third down converted by the offense as a negative point, any third down stopped is like plus two.
39:58So you're basically, you know, incentivized to stop them on third down.
40:01And so every third down, you're like, Oh, I couldn't stop.
40:05You know, you're like free. Right. Cause I mean, third down look as a fan, you want to translate.
40:10Cause that's what it's like is being a real fan, right?
40:13Being a real fan of the team. And you want that feeling, right?
40:17Like that feeling is, is what we're chasing with fantasy football in general.
40:21A thousand percent. Speaking of chasing situations, the Denver situation, Denver has me flummoxed a little bit because, you know, I'm not
40:27so sure what the heck's going on. First of all, Sean Payton can be a little infuriating as, as a coach for a little infuriating.
40:35I buried the lead there a little bit. He's the worst.
40:38He is the worst. For sure. So the worst.
40:41Okay. Let me just rephrase that. But you know, I guess my, my question is like, okay, we look at that team.
40:47Okay. Bo Nix, we got it. Yeah. Got it.
40:50Solved. Uh, I think Jalen Waddle. Okay. Yeah. He's probably going to be the number one receiver.
40:55Sutton will probably be number two. Okay. Fine. I'll take all that.
40:58We got that. Is there a player on this roster who actually will do something for fantasy that we are currently basically
41:05not drafting and redraft, you know, you know, any of those guys?
41:08I mean, there's so many. Dan's just not, I mean, I just, for me, and again, I'm supposed to be the guy
41:15that comes up and speaks up for Evan Ingram.
41:17I was ready for it. I can't do it.
41:20Cause he's, he's just a contingent upside play now at best.
41:23The thing is though, you, I see people saying like, Oh, people around camp are like, yeah, but Ingram is going to
41:29be what he's supposed to be supposed to be supposed to be.
41:33You signed this older guy to a two year guaranteed money deal, uh, coming off, you know, he actually with the Jaguars
41:39have the second most reception of all time. And one of those seasons, like this was not a development play, right?
41:45Like last year was a chance and he blew it.
41:48There were so many guys that have gotten that opportunity.
41:51I'll give Sean Payton this. He's giving guys the chance.
41:54He will bury you under the doghouse if you blow it though.
41:58Like Greg Dulcich came out, like people say he, he'd never got a chance.
42:02He did. I watched it week two, a couple of years ago, he came out and got eight targets.
42:07He had three drops. He basically never played again for that team.
42:11Lucas Kroll got a shot. Every one of these guys got in the shot to be the second guy for this team.
42:17Every single one of them. And no one besides Corlin Sutton can hold down more than 70% of the snaps guys that
42:24were on the team for like a week. You know, these guys, Josh Reynolds getting chipped off and you know, he chipped off the kicker for whatever reason.
42:32McMahon, it's like this guy will just, he'll give you a shot and then he'll just say, Oh, you blew it.
42:38You know, it's like, that's the way it goes.
42:41So I even makes me a little nervous for Jalen Waddle that like I went out to get Evan Ingram and they
42:47said, Hey, Evan, you're going to be the guy.
42:50You're going to be the Joker. He Ingram tweeted the Joker gif himself.
42:54Who do you think taught, you know, he didn't just make that up and then, right.
42:58Right. They couldn't, didn't do it. So like, I hope Waddle blows up like crazy and he's everywhere, but it could just
43:05be an annoying rotation of Adam Trotman and Marvin Mims and all these guys once again, and JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman.
43:12Right. And it's just, and with a mobile QB that said, that is sapping some of that.
43:17I just, the team makes me very nervous and I'm, I just, I don't have a ton of brothers.
43:23Please say, do you have somebody? Yeah. You, yeah.
43:25You neither. No, I mean, I, you know, I was like, okay, so I started to go through this and I was
43:32trying to like play the, the, the, the hopium version of all these players.
43:36So not, you know, I've got a couple of favorites that I've liked over, but who cares?
43:41Right. Pat Bryant. And it's like, okay, he's getting picked camp.
43:44Um, but he's really, I mean, are we really going to, maybe it's Pat Bryant and Sutton and Waddle in the slot or something?
43:51I'm like, I don't really. In Dynasty, you asked me about redraft.
43:54In Dynasty, I like Pat. This year. Yeah. This year.
43:57So that's the answer is no. In Dynasty though, I do like stashing Pat Bryant.
44:02Yeah. It's all right. I like Pat Bryant. He's behind, he's behind Corlin Sutton.
44:06He does the same things as Corlin Sutton. That's what I'm saying.
44:09That's what I'm saying. So when Corlin Sutton's gone, you know, when Corlin Sutton's gone, then now, yeah, this guy can be
44:16the split end, but you just, they're redundant assets.
44:18That's what I'm saying. So like, okay, so that's exactly right.
44:22So I look at Pat Bryant, I'm like, wait, he's sort of blocked by Sutton.
44:26It's not, I mean, I suppose it's possible they play them together at the same time.
44:31I don't see that. Then it's like, okay, Evan Ingram.
44:34It's like, oh, he's getting camp buzz. I mean, he is free.
44:37I've been, you know, kind of circling this Evan, Evan Ingram, you know, 22nd round draft spots in startups.
44:43Okay, fine. Sure. I mean, whatever, but I'm not like thinking that that's going to do anything.
44:48I don't, I don't know. Like, and then Justin Jolly, it's like, okay, well, there's another tight end that we can throw
44:54to the, you know, he's a rookie. And then of course, my boy, Troy Franklin, who basically was the wide receiver one
45:00for much of the season last year, feel like he just got completely cucked with this waddle situation.
45:06And even if he is on the field for a good majority, a Jaden Reed sampling of snaps, I'm not so sure
45:12that he sees enough targets to be meaningful. And even the Jaden Reed snap thing sounds like it's probably not going to happen for him.
45:19So Marvin Mims is there. Like when you see Marvin Mims play, you're like, dude, this dude's fucking awesome.
45:25Doesn't play like I, you know, get me to RJ Harvey.
45:28Lord knows I'm an RJ Harvey guy. I was like RJ Harvey's number one fan boy leading up to the NFL draft.
45:35I don't see it, man. Like he scored most of his points through touchdowns.
45:39Yes. He was a pass game weapon, but just so much finicky stuff.
45:43Now they have Jonah Coleman to take away some sort of running back opportunities.
45:47I would think, I would think they're not just going to not play Jonah Coleman.
45:51And then if you say Jonah Coleman, you have to have him basically completely cuck RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins.
45:57Again, aside from injury, I just don't see any of it now.
46:00Injuries happen. Of course, everything changes, but right. You set yourself up with JK Dobbins.
46:05Then you get yourself in the mindset of like, we need to have depth and we need to rotate and we need to keep guys fresh.
46:12And that's how you end up with these split backfields is that you can't lean on the guy.
46:18And then you end up here. And I'll tell you last year, cause I do a lot of the, the snap count
46:24stuff over at fantasy alarm and target tech and order stuff.
46:27One of the most interesting things that made it very clear what happened with Troy Franklin is that as the season progressed,
46:34past Pat Bryant's pass down, a rundown snap was started just going crazy.
46:37And Troy Franklin in some of these games was playing one or two run snaps in the game to the point where
46:44they were basically saying that the guy was, and then once that happens and teams catch onto your tendencies, right.
46:50Then, then now you can only put them out there for obvious passing downs.
46:54That's right. Because the moment you put him out there, you're showing that you're going to, you're not going to run and they were, that's where they lived.
47:02And that was the problem you ran to, which is what, what has me feeling better about Pat Bryant is that he
47:08has a better path to being an every snap player.
47:11Troy Franklin kind of blew that. He was the holding penalties and just getting absolutely destroyed.
47:16And I went back and watched some of the tape and it was not, I mean, what's, what is bad.
47:22You know what I mean? There's some of these guys that just, they can't do it, you know, rest in peace.
47:28Rondell Moore just never, he was just never a threat in the, the blocking game.
47:32Like at least Josh Downs tries like Josh Downs is a dog.
47:36He's got the mentality. He's never just going to all of a sudden be big, but like the way he plays to
47:42me, uh, he does like Wondell Robinson did enough to be an every down player, even though he's a terrible run blocker
47:49and Josh Downs to me can be like, he's not a complete zero there.
47:53Like some guys are, but all those guys, Mims and those guys with Sean Peyton, if you can't run block, you end
47:59up behind a little Jordan Humphrey on the depth chart.
48:02Yeah. That is the problem. It's one of my favorite things to do while watching football.
48:07You I've said it on this program. I probably said it with you before on this program, but like, it's like CD
48:13lamb or it used to be Tyree kill too.
48:16They do this with Tyree kill. Tyree kills playing, they're playing, they're playing, they're throwing a bit.
48:21You see Tyree kill come off the field. Cause he's probably tired.
48:24And I go, you know, nobody sees this. You know what I mean?
48:28People aren't just watching with a bunch of people.
48:31They don't notice that I'll be like, oh, they're going to run here.
48:35Like, how do you know? I'm like, I don't know.
48:38It's just gut feeling. And then they run the ball and then Tyree kill comes back out of the field.
48:43They do this with CD lamb all the time.
48:46It's like CD boom. They're doing stuff. Next thing you know, you see CD just 88 waltz off the field.
48:52Some other person might like, I think they're going to run the ball here.
48:56Sure enough. It's so obvious. Like, I mean, it's so obvious when that happens.
49:00Dave Canales has a, Dave Canales has a great quote on that to keep in the back of your mind, which he
49:06says it's okay to have tendencies as long as you know what they are.
49:11Right. So if you're doing something and you don't know it and the defenses know it, that's when you get in big trouble.
49:17But Dave Canales says, as long as you know what the tendencies are and you're okay, because you're not going to get,
49:24uh, they can't be used against you. Yeah, that's a good one.
49:27That's a good one. Uh, you mentioned Josh Downs.
49:30I'm going to ask you a question. This is a, this is the million dollar question for me because this is a
49:36guy that we're basically, I think everybody split on them because we, I, me personally love the talent of Josh Downs.
49:42Not sure about the situation now keen now a lot of stuff.
49:46Okay. Simple question. I want you to give me Josh Downs 2026 stat line targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns.
49:51Ooh, I like that dude. So, um, kind of cheating that I do just recently did an article that required me to
49:58look at every single prop line for every player.
50:00Yep. So if it would be cheating for me to set it at 67 and a half receptions and 824 and a
50:07half yards and four and a half touchdowns, because those are his exact lines of the sports books.
50:12Yep. I'll tell you, I'm, I'm betting over. I think this guy can come out and have, uh, so I think, I
50:18think I can come out and have 75, a thousand and six.
50:22I think it's funny because I wrote down 120 targets, 80 catches, 900 yards and you know, yeah, five to seven touchdowns.
50:28I mean, you know, nothing crazy, but yeah. And, and I wonder if that gets us where we want us to be.
50:35Probably not. Yeah. I'll tell you, but it will, but then here's the thing people have to, this is, this is a reality check people need to have.
50:43Yeah. Right. Go and look at, cause everyone says, and then I do this too.
50:47I wrote 2024. I wrote an article, um, highlighting three players.
50:51And I said, these players are destroying it in the stat in the spreadsheets yards for reception targets for reception.
50:56They are part-time players. If they ever become full-time players, it could be wheels up for fantasy.
51:01The three players in that article were Jackson Smith and Jigba, Josh Downs and Jaden Reed.
51:06And the very next year, uh, JSN got the full-time role.
51:09And then he obviously went nuclear the next year and Jane Reed and Josh Downs were still waiting on that.
51:15Right. Yes. But I want to caution people because we were doing this with Luther burden as well.
51:20When you make that jump from a part-time to full-time guy, it doesn't always go nuclear right away in our minds.
51:26That's what happened. Right. But when you go back and look at year two for JSN and year two for CD lamb,
51:33CD lamb as a rookie ran 94% of his routes from the slot, uh, was behind Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper.
51:39Yes, sir. The second season for those guys, 1100 yards, both of them right around 1100 yards, which is good.
51:45That's the progression you want to see from a guy going from a part-time to full-time role, but that's not going straight to 1800 yards.
51:52Right. Uh, Chris Godwin too, went from a guy that, you know, had, you know, as he's behind Deshaun Jackson and Mike
51:59Evans and also Adam Humphries to some degree, some degree in the second year, he wasn't necessarily a full-time player, but he went to like 800 yards.
52:07It was the third year that he was the wide receiver two in all of fantasy.
52:11So Josh Downs can make that jump because at least he's not just a second year player.
52:16He's been in the league for a couple of years.
52:19He can make a massive jump. Luther burden is a second year player, probably more at comparison.
52:24That's right. Right. Like there are people that have gotten to the point where if Luther burden comes out and has 1100
52:30yards, they're going to be like, okay, that's not quite what I want.
52:34You know, that's not quite what I thought. And like that, that to me is where you, we've lost the plot because
52:41if Luther burden in year two has 1100 yards, that's, that is fucking all you signed up for in dynasty.
52:47Yes, sir. Right. That's all you signed up for.
52:49That's what you, that's the, that is a progression, but you let yourself get over your skis.
52:54Yes. And that's where, you know, you face planted when you, you know what I mean?
52:59You should have just did a backflip instead of trying to do a, uh, a backflip and a 360.
53:04And this is, this is actually the path that I've mentioned for so many players has been the CD lamb JSN path,
53:11which is come through the slot and learn the game through the slot and then progress from there into, you know, multifaceted player to your point.
53:18Not every player is going to get there. You know, Jaden Reed may or may not ever be a full-time two wide receiver outside player.
53:26It may or may not happen now this year, maybe in real Shakira.
53:30Yeah. Yeah. Cool. Shakira is never, you know, it's never going to happen.
53:33Yeah. It's never going to happen. People, people were so mad when I called him cold Beasley, fancy cold Beasley.
53:39Yeah. I'm still waiting for clue sugar to have a better season than, uh, Cole Beasley ever did.
53:44Right. I mean, but here's the point. Like if you're, I think there's a difference and I think this is where prospect
53:51analysis is very important to understand that like CD.
53:53And of course I know, you know, this, I'm just talking at large CD lamb and JSN were much, much, much loftier
54:00prospects than even Luther burden is right. You know, it's like, so to understand, and that's where our wide receiver model is
54:06helpful to sort of say, wait a second, is this, maybe are we reaching a little bit too much in our imagination for this player?
54:14I think Josh downs, Jaden Reed, uh, you know, are, are not quite what Luther burden is, but Luther burden isn't quite what they are.
54:21And there's levels to this shit, you know? Right.
54:24Luther burns also like people imagine Luther burn as this little tiny guy.
54:27He's not, he's like six foot two 10. He's the same size as JSN.
54:31He's the same size as all these other big dogs.
54:34He's right. Yeah. He's a big guy. Right. Saying like just the way he plays, like you can, you have a, when
54:41you have a big guy that plays that way, that's great.
54:44Josh downs is never going to be, he's five, nine.
54:47They can listen to whatever they want. Right. He's never going to weigh more than 180 pounds.
54:52No matter no amount of bulking up. Right. Like that's right.
54:55171, 175. I see him listed all over the place.
54:58Like he's just never going to be 200 pounds.
55:01So he needs to be the Wandel Robinson type guy, which in this modern NFL, you can be, but you have to get the full-time role.
55:08Right now is nodding vigorously as he was making this point that some of these guys who are just too light, you
55:15know, even tank Dell who was starting to go off.
55:18I've heard, I mean, is that because he was light?
55:21I don't know, man. He did though. He was in a scheme.
55:24The thing was Bobby slow like the first year, 2023, that scheme, you could be that guy because you use multiple tight ends, you use a fullback.
55:32Right. And when you use two tight ends, you can tether them both to the line.
55:37Nobody needs to be on the line getting jammed.
55:39Right. They use all sorts of crazy motion, right?
55:42The pre-snap motion, those, those schemes, like you can get away with being tanked on that scheme.
55:47The moment you switch to three wide receiver sets, which they made Bobby slow do the next year after they traded for Stefan Diggs, right?
55:54The moment you switch to that, now these guys need to, they're pressed into being full-time guys and they're pressed into being,
56:01you know, in two wide receiver sets in the goal line, like tank Dell was when Stefan Diggs got hurt.
56:06And that's how you end up in those situations, right?
56:09Like Josh Downs, as long as you have a big body split end type guy on the outside, he can move and
56:16go in motion and line up all over the place.
56:19Like Chris Godwin protected underneath Mike Evans, but you know, if he can't run block and he can't do those things, they're going to use somebody else.
56:27Like down the stretch this year and Keenan Allen is big.
56:30Keenan Allen, again, that's another one that's like Keenan Allen towers over Josh Downs.
56:34Keenan Allen is not small. The problem with Keenan Allen is his shoulder has this like unicorn horn sticking out of it
56:40that like, he just can't get, he can't absorb contact anymore.
56:44Right. Keenan Allen is 6-2. You know what I mean?
56:47Like it's not a question about who's going to be in those situations.
56:50So like Josh Downs to me, like I think he can be better than he's been if he's an every down player,
56:57but like he's Josh Downs going to come out and have 1500 yards.
57:01You're projecting a scenario onto him that would be very difficult without, um, without just fully making him the focal point.
57:07Like he would have to be like, he'd have to become the next Cooper cop and even small either.
57:12Yeah. And even that's true. And even that run out, um, you know, the point of the matter is I think a
57:19lot of people are looking at that depth chart and saying, Oh, well, Josh Downs is clearly the number one.
57:24So he's going to go off. And that's not how football works, you know, because every player like Nick Westbrook, Akine was
57:31going to be out there playing X, you know, whether it was just like, you're not going to Josh Downs, wasn't going to be doing that.
57:39It would just, now maybe he play more in two wide receiver sets because it's like, well, wait a minute.
57:44We don't want to have him come off the field for, I don't know.
57:48I don't even know who it was. Now it is Nick Westbrook, right?
57:52Like he is a big split. Now it's Keenan Allen.
57:55Now that's a different equation. You go, wait a minute.
57:58Yeah. I don't really mind. You need Alec Pierce to go away.
58:02Well, he's away right now. That's my point. You need him to stay away.
58:06Yeah. You need him to, we don't root for injuries.
58:09We root for guys to take their time coming back fully healthy when they're, when they're ready.
58:14Yep. Well, I think there's some, there's some definite risk with the Josh Downs.
58:18Although at cost, I don't think there's too much of it.
58:21I think there's, it's basically pure upside at cost.
58:24So. And the floor is high. Well, that's the thing is the floor is high.
58:28Like when, when we work on this idea of contingent upside and just upside in general is like, is the floor above water?
58:35Picture yourself being in a pool, right? Where it's like, I'll give you an example.
58:39I'm not sure if you want people in this pool.
58:42It's an above ground circular pool. Like these coasts, like we used to have, remember those babies?
58:47Yeah. Oh yeah, dude. Very dangerous diving boards. Yeah.
58:50The wall that you could kind of move a little bit.
58:53If you get on the side, you got to get off the side, man.
58:57You're going to remember. Yeah. You can't sit up on there, bro.
59:00Yeah. Can't sit on that. My dad's going to kill you.
59:04Yeah. It doesn't kill you. Yeah. So, but for real, the best example is a player that we probably wanted to talk about anyway, which is Terrence Ferguson.
59:12Cause everyone loves this guy now. Yeah. And I'm fired up and he's got the high a dot and all that, but
59:18the way it works with me with contingent upside, and this is how it works with every handcuff plus type player is
59:25when they're in the pool, can they breathe? Right.
59:27Because then we love those guys because we can put them in our lineup and they can hang.
59:33And then if the conditions hit for the contingent upside, then we're winning above and beyond.
59:37Correct. Where Terrence Ferguson, we saw it last year when, when Devante Adams got hurt, he came out and he ran 37
59:44routes in week six, 16, the second most behind only Pukin to Koo.
59:47And he ran up most of them from a wide receiver spot and he's got the high a dot and he's got
59:54all these, you know, you can go through and watch how many just missed touchdowns the guy had.
59:59Yeah. But can we start him without those injuries?
60:02And that's the question for that player right now that I think people are missing in the conversation is that we don't know for sure.
60:09He could be unstartable unless a wide receiver gets hurt.
60:12But if he proves, if he comes out and he's like the, the tight end 11 with that contingent upside, right?
60:18Tight end 11 without anyone getting hurt. Now that's that now he's Jake Ferguson, right?
60:22That's what Jake Ferguson is. He was tight end.
60:25Like, yeah, yeah. I mean, so this reminds me, of Jake Ferguson with, with, you know, a dot and run after.
60:31With a dot and the speed. Yeah. It's a better Jake.
60:34That's what I mean. But good. I know. People think that Jake Ferguson is super startable when those guys are healthy.
60:41He was tight end 20 in points per game.
60:43Yeah. When wide receivers are healthy, when wide receivers are hurt, he was tight end too.
60:48Yeah. But like, that's the deal. And just to wrap up what we were saying on that is that Josh Downs to
60:54me already can stand up in the pool. I can start him in those formats and then he has additional upside, which
61:01is why we like taking shots on those players because worst case scenario, this is a useful player.
61:06You, you, you will use for injuries and violence.
61:09Best case scenario is he, is he finally breaks out into an every down player and could be this year's Wando Robinson,
61:15which Wando Robinson say what you will 140 targets back to back years.
61:19Right. So like that's, yeah, that's what we want.
61:22I think you'll appreciate this about Terrence Ferguson is we'll move off of downs.
61:26Cause I agree completely. Terrence Ferguson, if you, so especially at the tight end position, I know, you know this as a
61:32matter of fact, David Gattieri had a great tweet about, um, it was, uh, about a Ronda Gadsden, but it was like
61:38how all these Charlie Kohler and all these blocking tight ends had way more, uh, snaps than Gadsden and other players, but they didn't catch any balls.
61:46Cause they're not in the past catching tight end role.
61:49And we saw Trey McBride in his first year behind Zach Ertz play a lot of snaps, but not really get targeted that much.
61:56And I saw a lot of analysis after that first year that said, yeah, he's probably not going to be the guy.
62:03I'm like, no, no, he wasn't the primary target earning tight end on that team.
62:07Now that Zach Ertz is gone, he's going to play that role.
62:11The question isn't, is he going to play that role?
62:14The question is, is he good enough to maintain that role and actually be that guy?
62:18And I would say the same thing for Terrence Ferguson.
62:21You know, we did see him with a, with a what?
62:2418 yard a dot. That's not going to be what he is this year.
62:28He's going to be in the more volume, uh, driven tight end role on that team.
62:33However, there are enough tight ends on that team that if he sucks, if he fails, if he's not good, they'll just
62:40move them to the secondary or tertiary tight end role, which is where he was last year, sort of a gimmicky, you
62:46know, Hey, we can do some fun stuff with you guy.
62:49Um, if he can play the primary role for that team, I think that's where it all opens up.
62:55And I do think that's what they're going to give him the opportunity to do.
62:59I said this about Terrence Ferguson on the underground last week.
63:02Uh, Andrew, I said, you know, the only way that, uh, Terrence Ferguson basically fails this year is if he's not good.
63:09Like if he's not good, like he's going to be given the opportunity to be dope.
63:13If he is dope, then it's George Kittle, Trey McBride year two.
63:17I'll be it behind Puka and Devante Adams. I get that.
63:20It's not going to be 150 targets. No, nobody's saying that here on this, on this airway, but I'm just saying he's
63:27going to be given the primary option. I do think that that's probably the number three target on that team.
63:32Maybe even pushing a little bit Devante Adams. If again, if big gigantic, if, if he's good at sort of everything.
63:39And that's what, um, Sean McVay is saying is that he can play all three wide receiver position.
63:44He can do this. He can do, I mean, you can't find a player that's been coach speaked up better than Terrence Ferguson.
63:51The coach speak is good. The profile is good.
63:53The, the only thing. And then again, in dynasty, when Devante Adams, you know, goes off into the sunset, and that's when
64:00he can naturally be number two, the number two.
64:02I basically that this stage break categories, every tight ends into one of four categories.
64:07There's studs, right? George Kittle star. He's already a star, right?
64:10There's pure upside plays. These are guys that you can just be a top two target on their team.
64:15They might not be though, but like they have a path to it without injury or they don't need help.
64:21Right? Greg Dulcich, for instance, like this guy might be terrible.
64:24The floor is lava, but he could be the number one target on this team.
64:29And that, you know, he doesn't need anyone. Like you look at Mike Yoseki, he needs someone to get hurt.
64:35He's not just going to flat out out target T Higgins or Jamar chase.
64:39It's just the odds of that. What would you put the actual odds of that happening as?
64:44Zero. Zero. Literally zero. Right? So like, so I guess I can give that category dead.
64:48Just guys that are drawing dead. Yeah. Right. Like, so guys that are drawing dead completely is another one.
64:54And then there's the fourth category. So there's, there's studs, there's pure upside, there's contingent upside.
64:59And then there's guys that are drawing dead guys that are multiple, in my opinion, you know, drew sample is like nine injuries away from being a guy.
65:07Yeah. Right. But like, so Terrence Ferguson to me is still in that contingent upside category for redraft.
65:12But for dynasty, it does feel like it's only a matter of time.
65:16You know, he needs the role they play, right?
65:19Like, you know, Kittle is, he's the man in every situation.
65:22He's the, it's Gronkowski again. You know, what are we doing?
65:25Well, we're running a scene. Well, that's best. Gronk's the best at that.
65:29We're running, you know, a wham block. Well, that's definitely Gronk.
65:32Like there's never a play where you're like, maybe we should put something.
65:36In for Gronk. No blocking, you know, outside fade, you know, jump ball, whatever you name it, slant deep.
65:41You name the thing we're doing. Gronk's the best guy.
65:44Same thing with Kittle. Same thing with so many of these players.
65:48And that's a rare thing, of course, but like Drew sample is a blocking tight end.
65:52So he's like a hybrid fullback. Yeah. So he's never going to get, he's never going to be the catching, you know, option.
65:59You're going to be like, you know what? We're going to run a slant.
66:03Let's get fucking sample up. They're never going to cross.
66:06Anybody's mind. So there are guys, and that's where Charlie Kohler is.
66:10I think, you know, kind of tricking people. Yeah.
66:12He's going to play. He's going to be blocking.
66:15Now he's a pretty good little, he's better than most.
66:18I mean, I even look at Josh Oliver, Josh Oliver.
66:21Everybody says he's a blocking tight end, blocking tight end, blocking tight end.
66:25Have you seen his final stat at San Jose state?
66:28He was like over a thousand yards. He had like a hundred catches.
66:31He is a pretty good receiving tight end, but still gets pigeonholed as a blocking tight end because this is the NFL.
66:38So sometimes, you know, even if you're somewhat good at something, you're still going to play a role on the team.
66:44I guess circle all the way back to Terrence Ferguson.
66:47His role could be that of a sort of mostly primary tight end.
66:51I don't know if he's the best option in a blocking situation, but if he's sufficient, then he becomes a Trey McBride,
66:57Brock Bowers type where that's his sort of, you know, his reality.
67:01That's why, that's why you got to put on, you know, put on your big chunky aviators and pretend you're a tight end coach for a second, right?
67:09Because we saw this with Zach Ertz back when he was with the Eagles, where Dallas Goddard was grading out really well
67:15and looked good catching the football, run blocking tight end in the league, basically behind Mercedes Lewis and Kittle and a couple
67:22of guys, maybe two, three, one year he was too.
67:24So you're as a coach, tight end coach, you're never going to ask Zach Ertz to put his hand in the dirt.
67:31Nope. So that Dallas Goddard can play slot and run routes.
67:34Right. And so that's why Colby Parkinson to me is like, people are like, Oh, well, what if Colby Parkinson beats out Terrence Ferguson?
67:41And I, to what I say, so what? So he can be a chunky inline blocking tight.
67:46Even if he's, Ferguson didn't even exist. Right. He's an inline tight end, right?
67:50The hit rate on tight ends that run more than 40% of their routes in line is George Kittle.
67:56And then zero base. Right. Right. Like last year, Dalton Schultz was close, but it's like these guys that are inline tight ends, man.
68:03And again, especially with two wide receivers on the team that are high end wide receivers, the path is so poor.
68:09Like, so that's why we almost always lean into going for the best pass, catching tight end on the team.
68:15That's going to play at all. Because you look at some of these situations, we're either going to get in this situation,
68:21we're going to get Terrence Ferguson, or we're going to get nothing.
68:25Right. That's what you're going to get. Yeah. And that's another situation that people, there's a lot more controversial.
68:30And you might disagree on this because you and I have got, you've been the crusader for blocking versus me more than,
68:37more than I have, which you should, because they were like the guys, like I was wrong on the Luke Musgrave versus
68:43Tucker craft situation, because Luke Musgrave proved to be a zero and Tucker craft proved to be the George Kittle.
68:49But my situation here is on the seat, the Seattle Seahawks team, right?
68:53AJ Barner blocked on, he, he blocked on 16.8% of his past plays last year.
68:57Right. That is terrible. terrible. As long as I've been doing this, only three guys have blocked on more than 15% of
69:04their past plays and finished top five. One was George Kittle in one season where he had three 70 yard touchdowns.
69:10One was Rob Gronkowski in a year where he caught 11 touchdown passes in 11 games, got hurt.
69:15Yeah. The other, if you could pull this one, um, no way.
69:18I'm not, no way. Julius Thomas. Ah, you, we've talked about this.
69:22We've talked about this. 55, 55 touchdown passes from Peyton Manning.
69:25We'll do it. Right. Yeah. But so the hit rate on those guys is essentially as close to zero as you can get.
69:32Right. Also, if you take every tight end last year that got 70, uh, sorry, they got 15 targets.
69:37So not that many. Right. There were 70 tight ends.
69:40Only two ran fewer of their routes from an inline spot than AJ Barner.
69:44Those two were drew sample who already mentioned. And the other was Moe Alleycox.
69:49Right. So this guy is your prototypical inline tight end.
69:51The same role in this scheme that Foster Moreau has played, that Julian Hill has played, that, uh, Charlie Warner and Luke Sauber have played alongside George Kittle.
70:00Like if Elijah Arroyo does anything, he doesn't even have to be good.
70:03He just has to play like 30% of the snaps that kills the upside for AJ Barner.
70:08Yeah. That's why I've been telling people, I'm like the AJ Barner is getting steam right now and you can sell him for anything.
70:15I would do it because if, uh, if Elijah Royal even plays 30% of the snaps, right?
70:2040%. Yes. That could turn him into Dawson Knox.
70:23It could turn him into Cole Komet. Harold Fannin.
70:26They did it to David Njoku. Obviously Brock Bowers did it to, uh, Michael Mayer.
70:30Like he, AJ Barner could be the next tip Ryman, a player that coaches love, right?
70:35Like coaches love these guys. He could be Noah Gray.
70:38Yeah. Coaches love no gray. Like Charlie, Charlie, Nick Boyle played 70% of the snaps for the Ravens.
70:43Wow. Mark Andrews played 40%. Mark Andrews finished. This is 2019.
70:46Mark Andrews finished top five in fantasy playing 41% of the snaps.
70:50And Nick Boyle was a big nothing. Right. Like you got to understand, like that's how it goes sometimes.
70:55And that's why Barner I'm selling for anything. It's a great, great call.
70:59His, his speed. He's got like the four, eight 40.
71:02I basically only seen two tight ends ever finished top five with a four, eight 40.
71:07One was, uh, Heath Miller in 2012. The other was Jake Ferguson last year.
71:11And he only had 600 yards. Yeah. It's just the hit rate of, for this profile is so bad that you're better
71:17off selling than maybe getting a random Robert Tanya in season one.
71:21This is a great call. This is a great call.
71:24I remember I kind of liked AJ Barner just a little and felt kind of vindicated that he did.
71:29I knew you would though. I knew you would though.
71:32Cause you, you're the only one you give those guys a shot though.
71:36A shot. That's that's yeah. You give those guys a shot and he deserved a shot.
71:41And you know what? Last year he was a tight end 30, 13 in fantasy.
71:45Yeah. And rostering that player, you outperformed any investment by a, by a zillion already.
71:49That's the answer. That was the cash out. That's your cash out now.
71:53People are like, well, why would I cash out for a third or whatever?
71:57I'm like, if I gave you the option of taking cashing out a scratch ticket for $5 or buying an additional scratch
72:04ticket that has a hit rate of fucking nothing.
72:06Like you should just take the $5 in your pocket.
72:09Yeah. Yeah. No, great point. I like this take.
72:12And there's also a non-zero chance that Elijah Arroyo is good.
72:15I've, I've, why not? Again, that's another one where I say you look at certain teams, there's 32 teams in the NFL.
72:21Jax, how many meaningful fantasy football tight ends do we get?
72:25And I'll include guys that are meaningful for like a four or five week stretch.
72:29How many meaningful fantasy tight ends do we get in any given season?
72:33Yeah. Like meaningful four or five, six maybe. Right.
72:35The rest are all, you could even stretch it to 15.
72:39You can stretch it to 10 or 15 if you want.
72:42Like you could say like, Oh, well this guy had me.
72:45I started this guy for four games. Right. Right.
72:48Yeah. 10 or 15, but there's 32 teams. Right.
72:50Most teams will not, are going to not have a fantasy relevant tight end.
72:54People are arguing this argument of Charlie Kohler versus David Njoku for Drew Sample.
72:59There's a real possibility that we are, that that argument amounts to arguing, sorry, Charlie Kohler versus, uh, Rhonda Gadsden versus David Njoku.
73:05Yeah. There's a real world where that argument amounts to Drew Sample versus Mike Gusecki versus Tanner Hudson.
73:11If they just rotate those three guys, it just means you got nothing.
73:14You know what I mean? Like, uh, Charlie Kohler could be Adam Trotter.
73:18I will say though, if I'm betting on one of those guys, it's Gadsden, you know, it's Gadsden because he does the thing that scores fantasy points.
73:26If he's in the game, he's going to do the Mark Andrews thing, not the, uh, whatever boil thing, you know, right.
73:32It's like do the Mark Andrews thing. It could be that take that exact offense, right?
73:372019 Ravens. Yeah. Uh, only one wide receiver played more than 70% of the snaps because they used a fullback and they use multiple tight ends.
73:45Alec Engel is going to be the fullback, right?
73:47And Nick Boyle played 70% of the snaps, which led the, which he led the wide receiver and tight end group in
73:54snaps more than, I think Willie Sneed led the wide receiver.
73:57Right. Uh, and then Boyle played 70% of the snaps and Mark Andrews played 41% and Hayden Hearst also played 41%.
74:03There you go. So it really could be a situation where Dave Njoku is Hayden Hearst.
74:08And what was the last name of the coach of that team?
74:11I don't remember. That was, uh, that was a hard one of the Harbaugh's.
74:15There you go. And the tight end coach from that time period is the current tight end coach for the, for the chargers.
74:22Now, unless they fired him, uh, let me pull it up.
74:25Is that right? Yes. He converted. Wow. He converted.
74:28Yes. He converted. Oh, they, they did get rid of them.
74:31Oh my God. That would have been, that would have been too cool.
74:35Let's see. Let's see. Let's see. Is Andy Bischoff with the team?
74:38That's his name. Is Andy Bischoff folks out there listening, Google it.
74:42Cause, uh, if Andy Bischoff is still with the team, he was with them for the last two years.
74:48He was the tight end coach and run game coordinator.
74:50He was the one that converted Darren Waller into a tight end before Darren Waller, basically right as he was like leaving
74:57the league and he compared or dad's didn't to wall.
75:00And he was also there. They're extremely Mark Andrews.
75:02That's what I'm saying. Yeah. Wide receiver, the whole thing.
75:05I hope Bischoff didn't get fired. He, the thing is Bischoff might've gotten, gotten the ax to bring in one of, not
75:12because he's a bad coach, but to bring in one of, because he went with Roman and to bring in, bring in, um, one of, uh, McDaniels guys.
75:20Exactly. yeah, you can, you can galaxy brain all the way down, but just the thing is it's the, because they have
75:26lad McConkie and because they have QJ, it's not a, whoever gets the job is the guy situation.
75:32Correct. It is. You need to be special. You need to be Johnny Smith running 70% of his routes from a wide receiver spot.
75:39Uh, Darren Waller also 70% of his routes, from one of the series by in this scheme.
75:44Yep. So it's, it's a, that's the mindset we need to have looking at these teams.
75:48Uh, it's not a bet of who's going to be the guy because that guy will be a guy.
75:54It's who can, who can act, who actually has these skills that translate to the game.
75:59It's great. Great. I love it. So true. Such a good take.
76:02I absolutely love it. That was awesome. I so appreciated that.
76:05Uh, we got it. We got it. We got to do some hard hitting tight end.
76:10That was fun. That's true though. So, um, I just think, you know, the, the last thing I'll leave with the audience
76:16and that, that was so cool that you did that.
76:19We're not doing two more hours. I got two more, two more hours.
76:23Yeah. We're going to take one more break before we come back for our final segment.
76:28But I did want to say, um, that on that, on that, uh, note, it's just what position at the tight end
76:34position does the tight end that you're thinking about profile to play.
76:38And that's the most important thing. People saying Charlie Kohler is ahead of a Ronda Gadsden is just, it's kind of true, but it's not exactly true.
76:46He's not ahead of him at the slot wide receiver position.
76:49He's ahead of him in the, I'm blocking for the running game, tight end position.
76:53There's different guys. Now, again, as you point out, there can be guys who play both of those things.
76:59That's a rare bird and it's certainly ain't Charlie Kohler.
77:02So let's move on from there, but that's think about it.
77:05Think about it. Like we do it at other positions.
77:08So running back the whole thing. Yeah, of course we do at a quarterback too.
77:12I, we've, we do it all the time where we sit here and there's, there's a quarterback battle and one of the dudes can run.
77:20Right. We just root for that guy to get the job.
77:23Like look at the Vikings. Like with the Vikings QB battle, Kyler Murray versus JJ McCarthy.
77:27If you get Kyler Murray, you get a guy that runs and can have upside.
77:32And if you get JJ McCarthy, you get nothing.
77:34Right. And that's the battle of AJ Barner versus Elijah Royal.
77:38Yeah. If you get AJ Barner, you just get a big, nothing.
77:41You need the touch. We get, we get nothing, but if you get, but you get a Royal that maybe we get
77:48Dalton Kincaid or God forbid, what if the guy plays 80% of the snaps and we get the next Colson Loveland or Harold Fannan.
77:55Like you got to categorize these guys. And in, in those situations, lean into best case scenario.
78:00Yeah. It running back at times, you know, now we need to weigh like, okay, if the guy, if whoever gets the
78:06job can potentially have upside, anybody, no matter who it is, maybe we don't lean just in the best case scenario, but
78:12a tight end and quarterback, you have to lean into best case scenario.
78:16Well, I'm going to lean into best case scenario on a quarterback that I think people have a lot of questions about right after this.
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79:10Just like that at Lowe's. Welcome back to the program.
79:13I'm here with the Andrew Cooper. All right, Andrew.
79:16Hey, check it out. We talked about quarterback. I think has some upside that we're all just split on is Malik Willis.
79:22Okay. And I think the questions I'm asking myself, and I'm going to ask you number one question is, can Malik Willis survive this offense, survive this situation?
79:30And then the second question I asked myself, especially because I'm in dynasty is he, can he thrive in this opportunity in this, in this offense?
79:38What do you think? The answer to everything is yes, because you said can, you know, will he hard to say?
79:44I think he will. I think he will, but can he?
79:47Yes. The thing is for a quarterback, quarterbacks are more likely to get benched.
79:51The more hope there is in the room and the more there is on the line, right?
79:56Yes. Like I think everybody knows Bobby slow hung around because he knows that it's a rebuild and that he's going to get an opportunity here.
80:04He's the offensive coordinator for those that are familiar.
80:07And this scheme is very quarterback friendly. And Malik Willis, in terms of his fantasy upside is going to test a statistic
80:13for us that has been fairly robust. 10 year sample size here.
80:17Over the last 10 years, every quarterback to run five times a game.
80:20So 85 times in a 17 game season or 80 times back when it was 16 games.
80:25Yeah. Every quarterback to run five times a game and play 16 games has finished top 10 in fantasy football for the last decade.
80:32I did go back far enough to find the last time it happened where they didn't.
80:37The answer is Colin Kaepernick in like 2013 had a season where he ran a bunch and was just terrible.
80:43But beyond that, every quarterback to run five times a game and play the whole year has finished top 10.
80:49Right. To which if Malik Willis is himself five times a game, isn't that much.
80:53Jackson Dart ran 86 times last year in only 12 stars, right?
80:57Like Malik Willis is on average runs like nine times a game.
81:00When he starts, he's going to get, so he would get there no matter what.
81:05So this will be the ultimate test of that stat because if he finishes top 10 on this team, then we're drafting
81:11these guys no matter what we don't care about the situation.
81:14Yes. If he runs a ton and it really truly looks God awful.
81:18And then we're going to have to revise it and just say like, okay, I guess we don't just draft no mobile quarterbacks no matter what.
81:26But as of right now, I'm in the mindset of I'm drafting mobile quarterbacks no matter what I don't care.
81:31It is broken. Right. And, and, and the floor is high and the ceiling is even higher.
81:36I also like Bobby Slurik. I think this scheme is incredibly friendly.
81:40They don't need to have multiple high end wide receivers because they're going to use the fullback because they're going to use multiple tight ends.
81:47Greg Dalsuch will play the Johnny Smith, Darren Waller role.
81:50We'll probably run 70% of his routes from a wide receiver spot.
81:54Caleb Douglas, one of Caleb Douglas or Malik Willis.
81:56If they can be a guy, like Chris Bell, Malik Washington, sorry, Malik Willis, Malik's all across the world.
82:02Malik W. Yeah. The Malik W's. If they can connect on the Malik W connection.
82:06I mean, like this team can cobble it together.
82:09They have Devon HN who's going to get a hundred targets himself.
82:12Yeah. Like I, this team to me, people are, they, they are setting themselves up to come in dead last.
82:18They have more dead cap than active spending. I still think they're, they're a better team than some of these other teams.
82:25I think they're better than the jets. I think they're better than the, I think the, the schedule plus what they are
82:31is better than what the Cardinals are going to do.
82:34Yeah. Carla three. The Vegas even says that the, they said they think the Dolphins are going to win more games than the Cardinals.
82:41Yeah. Uh, I think this team is brutal. Yeah.
82:44It's, it's tough. Yep. I'm not going to say that.
82:47I would never say this team could surprise some people, but what I will say is that I think that it's going to look like football.
82:54Uh, it's going to not be just complete dog water unless Willis isn't, you know, a guy at all.
83:00But anytime you get guys that come from bad organizations, I'm willing to give them another chance.
83:05So I think the, the, the closest, uh, replica to this situation was last year with Justin, fields, similar contract, similar sort
83:11of situation in that it wasn't very hopeful, a similar, you know, player in that, you know, he's a sort of an
83:18unproven player to some degree and a very, very dope rusher, which is clear as, as day the, the difference I see
83:24is that, I mean, this is crazy to say, but Malik Willis is at least by the numbers was levels better as
83:30a passer than Justin fields had been to this point.
83:33And so the idea that the passing game coach, right, whoever is like analyzing the passing game, post game is due to
83:40be less infuriated than they were with Justin fields, who I'm sure infuriates play callers and an offensive coaches because of his
83:46unwillingness to let it go, uh, into the right situations.
83:49Winning football games at every level is more about not making mistakes than it is making big plus.
83:54Yeah. And we hate to admit that. We do hate to admit that in fantasy football world, because in our world, it's
84:01big plays are what separates you and, and, and making things happen is, you know, and being a superstar is what is what separates you.
84:08But the reality is that, and you know, Tom Brady talks about this all the time is that like, you're looking for
84:15mistakes that other teams make so that you can rip off chunk plays and they care more about chunk plays than they do averaging five yards a carry.
84:23They care about how do you make that play that puts us in a position to score so that we can score.
84:29Right. And football is all about executing. And I think that's the dip for me, the difference between, uh, Malik Wilson, Justin
84:36Fields is that the Packers last year, when they put Malik Wilson, the game and said, Hey, we need to play to win.
84:42He went out and he was winning. Yeah. You look at Mac Jones, like Mac Jones was like, that was good, man.
84:49You look at Jacoby Brissett last year, dude, go watch the Seahawks game that Jacoby Brissett played in.
84:54The game started with him fumbling for a touchdown.
84:57Right. And then the next drive, they got the ball right back because it's a touchdown.
85:01And he fumbled that one for a touchdown. And then he threw for 400 yards or whatever, but who like, he threw
85:08for 400 yards because he blew the game. Right.
85:10200% went one, one in 11 last year. You know what I mean?
85:14Like, so for me, I look at guys like, like Malik Willis and I have more faith that they can be an
85:21NFL quarterback, that they can run the scheme and be the guy.
85:24And also just so happens that it's the most damn quarterback friendly scheme that there is.
85:29Yeah. Like Brock Purdy is, I think Brock Purdy is great.
85:32I think he's good, but he's also in the most QB friendly scheme there's ever been.
85:37And I don't separate the scheme from the quarterback as long as he's the quarterback of the fucking scheme.
85:42Right. Exactly. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I don't usually curse.
85:45No, it's good. Look at you. You're doing the sleep deprivation.
85:48It's sleep deprivation. And also I'm still pissed at you because you didn't come visit me when you were in Boston.
85:54I know. I'm so sorry. You're supposed, here's what was supposed to happen.
85:58You were supposed to say, Hey, I'm in Boston for a day.
86:01I'm going to come by. We're going to do a show.
86:05And then I was going to say, I just had a baby and you can't come by.
86:10Yeah. Which, you know, then, then we were all set.
86:13That's probably true. That's probably true. That's why I'm swearing on your show.
86:16No, that's probably true. I probably should have done that.
86:19I thought about it and I was like, yeah.
86:22Get out of, get out of free car. If you just looked at my Twitter and saw the picture of a baby
86:28there, you could have been like, Hey, I'm coming over.
86:31You know? Yeah. I would have said, no, I should have known.
86:35Right. That you'd have been like, I can't get, I'm like, Oh, it's like inviting some.
86:39It's like, it's like, you got a buddy that lives in Australia.
86:43Yeah. Come to my wedding. Yeah. Come to my wedding.
86:46Right. And it's like, right. You get some free, it's free karma there.
86:50Right. You get the free positivity of like, yeah, they're not going to fly out for this wedding.
86:55Then if they do, you just, obviously you, you make a play for them, but like, it's one of those free, it's free car.
87:02It's free. You had the free upside there. And that's why I have to, I have to cross on your show now.
87:08Now I don't remember what we're talking about. Cause I was willing, I was willing to make the drive.
87:14Cause it's like, it's only like an hour, which in California land is like.
87:18Down the street. Like it's no big deal. And I, you know, I would have just driven, done the show, driven back.
87:24Like that's four hours of my time. I don't really, don't give a shit.
87:29What town were you in? Were you in the city proper?
87:32Sturbridge. So central mass. You were in Sturbridge, dude.
87:34Wow. That is like people that don't know Massachusetts.
87:37Sturbridge is like such a local Sturbridge village is like this little, yeah.
87:41It's like recreation of like pilgrim time. Yes. Are you from Sturbridge?
87:44Yeah. Yeah. Wow. Sturbridge kind of following some hard times.
87:47Southbridge really, you know, Southbridge. I used to, I've appraised some properties out in that area that were really special properties.
87:53Yeah. It's pretty crazy. But, but yeah, my folks live on a lake out there.
87:58So I just hang out. You're in the nice part.
88:01Yeah. Yeah. Boat, you know, jet ski, the kids love it.
88:04Yeah. They don't ever want to leave. They just want to stay in the water.
88:08My kids would have loved to come out and go on jet ski.
88:12Next time. Listen, they have to be potty trained.
88:15So you got a couple of years to get this.
88:18As we've discussed my daughter, we discussed this off air pseudo sometimes potty train.
88:22That's literally the difference between Malik Willis and Justin Fields.
88:25One is potty train. And the other potty trains, potty train, Malik, potty train.
88:29Justin Fields is the perfect name for Malik Willis.
88:31My God. That's who he is. He's Justin Fields with potty training.
88:35So, you know, literally Malik Willis was, that's what we're talking about was Malik Willis was good.
88:40You talked about the big plays. The interesting thing is that they have Devon, a Chan and Malik Willis.
88:45When he, you know, escapes, they're going to have these built in big plays just because eventually one of those two guys is going to break something big.
88:54And all they really have to do is have a quarterback that keeps them on time.
88:58Right. And it keeps it kind of moving forward and then boom, HN or boom, Malik breaks one, you know, and actually
89:05one other player that actually in his draft class, it was Lad McConkie, Malik neighbors, and one other player who had the
89:11missed tackles forced and run after catch ability. And that was Malik Washington.
89:15Ooh, I'm telling you, man. And you know me, I'm still obviously never give up on Greg Dalsich.
89:20So I still got my shares on that. I'll tell you, it's a cheap, it's a cheap path to upside.
89:26When I build my dynasty tight end rooms, like if I'm competing now, my focus is on just on getting a set and forget it guy.
89:34Yeah. People, people think I, that I want to do like yin and yang and do all this.
89:39But like the reality is that like, there's only so many difference making tight ends in dynasty.
89:44You have to have no holes in your lineup.
89:47Cause when you get to the playoffs, everybody's got a really good quarterback and tight end.
89:51So I do try to buy one, but if I'm like, you know, kind of middle of the pack or whatever, I'll
89:58piece my rooms together with the yin and yang type thing where you have like somebody you can start, just get them in there.
90:05Dalton Schultz, whatever, get them in there. And then I fill my bench with these upside guys.
90:10So obviously I'm going to have Greg Dalsich and can you see, can anybody that has a pure path to upside just to see?
90:17Greg Dalsich is my favorite player to have on a, on a, on any roster, even best ball.
90:22But like in redraft, he's the perfect last pick as well, because you pick him.
90:26This isn't a rookie. This isn't a slow burn rookie where you need to like stash him.
90:31And then you regret it. If they break out later, like Colston Loveland last year, he was a rookie.
90:37You had to stash him. Greg Dalsich ain't a rookie.
90:40If he's not doing anything week one, you can drop him.
90:43This is no slow burn. Oh, let's get Greg Dalsich acclimated so that we can bust him out in week five.
90:49Right. After the bye week, Greg Dalsich is really going to take off.
90:53No, no, no week one. We're going to find out whether this is a guy or not.
90:58And that is such a valuable, valuable guy. The, the value of a bench spot is so misunderstood, man.
91:03It is the most valuable thing. And the ability to get, it's the concept of lottery tickets versus scratch tickets.
91:09Yes. Kenyan Sadiq is a lottery ticket. You have to wait for the numbers to be called.
91:14Yes. You have to wait for the date that the numbers come in and you have to hold that ticket until those days.
91:21With a scratch ticket, you scratch it right away.
91:24Yes. And that's Greg Dalsich. We're going to scratch that ticket, right?
91:27We're going to scratch it week one. If this guy plays 40% of the snaps dropped, done.
91:32Right. Greg, Kenyan Sadiq, if he plays 40% of the snaps, you can't drop them.
91:36No, you got to wait. You have to wait.
91:39So that's the difference. I love having as many of those scratch tickets at the bottom of the bench as possible, because
91:45you know me, you're going to come on these airwaves and tell everybody to pick up 10 different guys.
91:51Yes. After week one, you're going to come on here.
91:54You do it every year. And you know what we're going to look at?
91:58We're going to look at snaps. Yes. Routes. Targets.
92:01You know, because you're not going to, because you're going to see everybody picks up the guy who go, dude, he had
92:07three catches for 81 yards at a touchdown. That's the guy.
92:10And you look, he played 12 snaps. Yes. Seven routes and somehow fucking fell into it.
92:15That's not the guy. That guy's not even going to do, he's going to have a zero line next week.
92:21You know, maybe I'll play 15 snaps. Ooh, yeah, that's the way to fantasy goodness.
92:25So you really have to sometimes miss that noise.
92:28And like, yeah, if Dulcich comes out and he plays 70% of the snaps, you know, and in those 60%, 60% run.
92:34If you play 70% of the snaps and run participation, right?
92:37Exactly. Right. Yeah. If you run 70% of the routes and he, and he, and he runs 60% from a wide receiver
92:44spot, I don't care if he has zero targets.
92:47Exactly. I'll add him. That's right. That's right. That's how you, that's how you win.
92:51Okay. We're going to do one segment to finish it.
92:54But before I get to that, I want to ask you one quick thing.
92:58Cam Scadabo above or behind ADP for you. Yeah, we do.
93:01We usually do red light, yellow light, green light, right.
93:04In terms of like green light, yellow light, red light in terms of like, are you picking them above at or below ADP?
93:11I love that you took the yellow light out.
93:13Cause it's such a cop out. I'm red. I'm red on Scadabo.
93:17I'm red on Scadabo. I, these, these type of guys terrify me, man, because like statistically speaking, Scadabo was good, but not
93:23good enough because I've just seen too many times.
93:26We fall in love with, um, and again, these throwing these names out there, this gets me in trouble, but I don't really even care.
93:33Too many times we've seen Damien Pierce, uh, Tyler Algier, Michael Carter.
93:37Dude, people were, I don't care. Like it's so easy to forget.
93:40People were excited about Michael Carter. Michael, go and look at Michael Carter's rookie year stats and look at him right next to Cam Scadabo.
93:48He was a second round rookie pick in, in dynasty drafts too.
93:51Yeah. So he was a, he was a guy.
93:54Michael Carter was picked at pick one Oh seven in his draft class.
93:58Cam Scadabo was picked at one Oh five. So to try and tell me that Cam Scadabo is some meaningful investment above and beyond what Michael Carter was.
94:06He wasn't. And those teams where they did is they went and got Brace Hall and they went and got B.
94:12John Robinson and they went and got, uh, nobody.
94:15And Damien Pierce just disappeared. Like, uh, Philip Lindsay.
94:17Like if you can't do every part of this job, then you are not, it's not going to work.
94:23And with, with, uh, with teams, the GMs, they look at the position and they say, how much have we invested in this position?
94:30And the giants looked at it and they said, we have, we're spending the fourth fewest money of any team at running back.
94:36And what we have a fourth round pick and a fifth round pick two day, three guys and Devin Singletary.
94:42So this is one of our weakest positions. And they actually already added Najee Harris.
94:47Yes. But next year, unless camps got a boat in crazy camps, can't about absolutely needs to go nuts right now or
94:53else they're going to add more players to that room.
94:56It happened to run to Gadsden. Yeah. Rodney Gadsden looked good.
94:59We loved her on the Gadsden, but he was a fifth round pick.
95:03And the team said, this is one of our weakest positions and they added more guys.
95:08Yeah. So I'm not saying I'm not ruling it out, but right now I'm betting against it because of what I can
95:14sell him for because, because he's people love him and he's fun.
95:18And he's funny. Yeah. I know you, I think if he could hit in a big way, it's just, and my God,
95:24if he, if he is the guy with the, with this scheme with Patrick Ricard and Isaiah likely and, and, and, and
95:31Theo Johnson, it could hit in a big way, but this year is crucial for this player.
95:35He needs to run with it, man. So you're in, tell me that you're, I mean, you think he's going to run.
95:42You think he's a dog. He is a dog.
95:45We know that he is. I'm, I'm actually, uh, Kuvitakis is calling me right now.
95:49I just put him to voicemail. You know what I mean?
95:52Get out of here. Yeah. Get him out. You're interrupting.
95:55You know, when does he call? It must have an emergency.
95:58Listen, I am in. So I was waiting for you to call me when you were here in Boston.
96:04Oh my God. I'm never going to lose down.
96:06I am. I am in because of a couple of things.
96:10Number one, I do think he's goal line. I do think he's every down.
96:14I, I do think he's going to lose down.
96:16But I also don't disagree with your take. I love it actually, you know, to put him in the Damien Piers, Michael Carter bucket doesn't hurt my sensibilities.
96:25It actually makes me think of this situation in a different lens.
96:28And it's pretty smart lens to, to, to look at.
96:31I just, the thing is, I did all the negative case.
96:34Yes. Yeah. I did all the negative case because we've seen guys come out of that bucket.
96:39We've seen guys come out of that bucket. Even when the team tries to replace them.
96:44Yes. Chris Carson. They tried to replace Chris Carson with a first round pick Rashad Penny.
96:49Yep. And that, and Chris Carson tried to fumble it all away.
96:52Couldn't even fumble it away. He did. He put him, he put him in the back seat.
96:57He for sure did. Right. And so they tried to replace, they tried to replace Karen Williams with Blake Coram, a third,
97:03the second, second running back off the board. A third round pick.
97:07They, Kyron Williams, they tried to replace him. Didn't work.
97:10So guys can overcome. So that's why, that's why I, even before I said all those names, I was like, this is
97:16a take where you got to understand the nuances of it because there is a way out, but just know that he, that seat couldn't be hotter.
97:24We can both agree that. I'm not sure. I don't know.
97:27That I don't know. I think it's hot. I think he's got, I think he's got a ball this year because.
97:34Well, sure. Of course. Yeah. Look, if he doesn't ball, if he doesn't ball this year, they look at the room, of
97:40course you look at a room of, of Najee Harris, Tyrone, Tracy, Cam Scadabo.
97:44And then, and you might turn around and draft and be the team that drops the first running back.
97:50No, no, no. Look, of course. In that way.
97:52I thought you meant like right now. Like, I, I think he's clearly the, I'm not worried.
97:57I'm not super worried about Najee and Tyrone's already, I was a Tyrone guy before.
98:02I love the contact balance, but like he just has, he has shown that he's, he's, he's not going to be Alvin
98:08Kamara because he can't do the other parts. No, he really, he was a bad wide receiver.
98:13Pass blocking was the thing he needed to show.
98:16And he blew, he already legitimately blew. He literally blew a pass block in a game, got in the tent in 4k.
98:22And then they brought in a guy who specifically to do that.
98:26I mean, you know, you had to do one thing, bro.
98:29He had to do one thing, you know, like that was the one thing you had to do, man.
98:34Yeah. Don't let your quarterback get fucking drilled, bro.
98:37All right. We're going to end with the, this one.
98:40There's a bunch of old wide receivers, right? And in redraft, there's a certain question, but that question I feel is even
98:46more important in dynasty, because if you swing and miss in the final year of like, in other words, you don't want
98:53to take a guy, have a guy and have him age out on your roster.
98:57You'd like him to have his last year of productivity on your roster and then somehow trade him the year before he's going to fall off.
99:05Now. I don't think DJ Moore is quite there, but you know, he's closer, you know, guys like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Devante Adams, even Cortland Sutton.
99:13Obviously the guys like Debo digs and Keenan Allen are further down, uh, Godwin and DJ Moore getting there.
99:18These guys are, you know, all older. And it could be, especially when you look at the guys like Evans and certainly Adams, right?
99:25Like at some point it's like, Oh, it's the last year of Andre Johnson where you're like, he's going to be, Ooh, this is not good.
99:33Like there is a final year sometimes where you watch them be not good.
99:37Some guys go out on top where they call it a career before ever having a really, you know, hit the bottom of the barrel type of season.
99:45But ultimately we don't really even care about bottom of the barrel.
99:49Even if these guys are just average and don't return value on ADP, it's a huge loss in redraft, but an even
99:55bigger one in dynasty where you can't even recoup any value at that point.
99:59So their outcomes in dynasty are super important of the guys.
100:02I just mentioned, I know I kind of sent that to you in the, in the chat here, DJ more McLaurin, Evans,
100:09Adams, Godwin, Sutton, Debo, Diggs, Keenan Allen, any more.
100:11If you can think of them, which of these guys are you fading or firing on in general at ADP?
100:17Yeah. You picked the worst guy for this question, man.
100:20The worst because, you know, so my father-in-law, he, no matter what we're working on or whatever, like he comes over and helps me with projects.
100:28There'd be like a piece of a half, a piece of a two by four.
100:32That's a guy like nails in it. And he'll just, he'll be like, I'm taking that home.
100:37I'm keeping that, you know, cause for him, he's like, I'll find something to just stick it on and it'll do something.
100:44And you know, my mother-in-law is always like, what are you doing?
100:47He's got this pile of like junk wood, right?
100:50That's me in dynasty where I'm like, I'm always playing to win.
100:53So I'm always looking at guys like this and I'm like, well, you know, the last, and again, I've had my heart
101:00broken so many times where I'm like, the last thing I need to do is try and turn this into, a three
101:06P by like not having enough depth, but trying to keep the dream alive for later years and, and not having like
101:12that extra guy on the bench that I, when I need them to go in there and championship week or whatever.
101:19So I'm just, I'm the guy that collects dead wood.
101:22The list of names you just gave me. I like my answers to that is that sounds pretty good.
101:27You know what I mean? Like literally every player, I don't divide it with Mike Evans, Devontae Adams.
101:32I was like, yeah, that sounds good. What about it?
101:35Like I'm trying to win a 20, 26 redraft prices.
101:38Cause that's where I will trade, right? I will trade a, this might sound nuts.
101:43Cause it's not even necessary to say it. How if you, if a push game to shove, I'd probably trade, like, let's
101:49say I know I'm the best team in the league.
101:52Yeah. And my picks going to be 12 push came to shove.
101:55I'd probably give you that pick for Chris Godwin.
101:58Like I truly believe that in, uh, if Zach Robinson was brought in to do what Liam Cohen did in 2024, which
102:04is, I believe the case, this guy could be a tough, this guy could be wide receiver one in fantasy football again this year.
102:11In 2024, he was wide receiver two overall behind only Jamar chase.
102:15Right. Like, uh, you know, at the end of the year, uh, you know, Chris Greer, uh, not Chris Greer.
102:21Um, that's now is where the sleep's coming in.
102:23Chris Greer is the GM for the dolphins. Come on, dude.
102:27Jason, like Jason, like, right. He's saying that Chris Godwin finally looked like himself in the dolphins game where he had a hundred yards.
102:34And to me, a guy like Chris Godwin, I'm not even saying this is the last year and then he's done.
102:40I'm like, what if Chris Godwin is just going to have two more, three more years where he is the slot flanker
102:46in a system that loves a slot flanker. Like the, the job that Parker Washington is doing.
102:51That's the job he's doing. Yes. Zach Robinson was the past game coordinator.
102:55People. The funny thing is about Liam Cohen is that we always talk about that Cooper cup year with Liam Cohen, right?
103:01Because he was with the Rams and Cooper cup had the greatest fantasy season of all time.
103:06But Liam Cohen actually for that one year was not there.
103:10That was the one year he went to Kentucky.
103:12The other years, Liam Cohen was with the Rams.
103:15And then that one year in 2020 wasn't there.
103:18And then he came back the past game coordinator for that team was Zach Robinson.
103:22He was still there. He stayed. So Liam Cohen and Zach Robinson, we, we, we all say they do the same thing.
103:28Robinson was when I was actually there for the cup season.
103:32Cohen wasn't there, even though his, his mentalities were and Godwin, I'm buying, dude, I'm buying big time.
103:37Like these other guys. Um, again, you mentioned DJ more makes me nervous that the prop that market's so low on him, which is a totally different topic.
103:45We don't have time. What is the prop bet?
103:48Do you know it? Dude, the over under for his receptions is set at 59 and a half brother.
103:53They have, I looked it up. I pulled all the numbers on the day.
103:57I was looking at it. I could find 48 other players, including running backs and tight ends that a had a higher reception total than that.
104:05They also have this draft Kings. They have Khalil Shakir said it's 62 and a half.
104:10What? So if you, if you were to ask draft Kings projection, whoever's doing the projections that are setting up the prop
104:16bets today, who they think is going to lead the bills in, in receptions.
104:20They have Khalil Shakir said higher than they have DJ more.
104:23And they have his yardage. That makes sense to me.
104:26No, they have his yardage. You said at 800, there's touchdowns at six, six and a half, which is very good.
104:32But like they're sitting back, you know, this is what happens with projection models.
104:36I'm betting me over. I already put the prop bets in on the over smash.
104:41But they're, they're basically taking what their models are doing, which I think is wrong is they're taking what he did last year, which is basically right.
104:4960 catches for like 500 yards. And they're taking the way that the bills spread the ball around.
104:54And they're putting those together and projecting lines very low for this player.
104:58But my God, 59 and a half, that would be a brutally bad pick.
105:02That would be like the year Randy Moss went from Oakland to New England.
105:06Setting the line. Setting the line. But people were setting the line at that.
105:10Cause he was, you know what I mean? Like nobody knew he's going to score 23 touchdowns.
105:15But this, I mean, like it's just, that seems to me the best prop pick, but it does make me nervous.
105:21Like what, maybe they do know something, but I guess of the guys you named, if I was going to say one
105:28could, and again, we've been using this theme of like standing in the pool and your heads below the water.
105:33Yeah. I could see a world where Cortland Sutton goes under the water this year.
105:38And he's just becomes too inconsistent. He's always been a contested catch circus, catch chunk play touchdown guy.
105:43Uh, at the moment that that stops being frequent and starts being a more of an anomaly.
105:48That's right. Is, you know what I mean? Like we see it with the field stretchers too, where it's like Deshaun Jackson,
105:54Santana Moss, those guys were fun up until they stopped doing it every week and started doing it every three weeks.
106:01That's right. Yeah. Like Chris got Corland Sutton could become that guy.
106:04And he even mentioned this year, they asked him about, he was like, yeah, I might not be getting the targets I got in previous years.
106:12And like, anytime a guy says that, I say, wow.
106:15Wow. Right. DJ Moore said that last year about the bears.
106:18He was like, yeah, I might not be getting a million targets.
106:21I was like, what? Why? That's not good that this guy just said that.
106:25Why are you saying that? Yeah. So he makes me nervous, but every other one of those guys you mentioned, Debo, Keenan
106:32Allen, Diggs, I'm the, I'm the wood. I'm the guy that has the wood.
106:36And at the end of the year, people look at my teams and they're like, Whoa, what the hell do you have that guy?
106:43And I was like, well, you see, I was going to make a birdhouse out of it.
106:48You know what I mean? Like I was, I had big plans for that.
106:52I just, it's just in the yard getting like random two by four also could be the show title.
106:58I mean, we have Malik Willis, potty trained, Justin field or Corlin.
107:01I think Corlin Sutton random. I for my record.
107:04So rotten birdhouse. So let me ask you then, let me throw that back on you.
107:08Um, let's say you came in fourth place last year.
107:11You plan to compete again, but your team is fairly balanced.
107:15Um, you trading off of Mike Evans, Devante Adams.
107:17I think those are probably the examples where it's like the, the toughest examples because we know the age cliff of retire immediately is there.
107:24Yes. Yeah. I think Devante is the one that's most scary.
107:28Uh, the ADP I think is sort of showing that.
107:31I mean, you know, the, the, the, the fantasy market, it's become pretty smart where touchdown, uh, you know, fantasy points through touchdowns isn't sticky.
107:38We know that, but the ADPs used to not know that.
107:41So it was an ADP edge. You could always take now.
107:44You see players like RJ Harvey and Devante Adams sort of faded in ADP because of, I presume the sort of collective
107:51knowledge that we all have, that that's not a very good bet to make.
107:55Michael Pittman scoring mad touchdowns last year. Like even I, even I, even I as a Michael Pittman guy, I look at
108:01that and I was like, yeah, that's, I mean, I don't even know that happened.
108:06It's not sticky. It's not one is good, but I think the other one that I'm nervous about would be, would be
108:12Devante, uh, Mike Evans, obviously, you know, the story of Mike Evans going to a place where there's an electrical substation.
108:18I just see that storytelling itself. Like Mr. Hamstring, you know, and I hate predicting injuries because it seems so stupid because
108:25he could play all 17 games and be awesome.
108:27Um, I do think if he can stay healthy, I really like what he's able to do in that offense, whether or
108:34not he's able to stay healthy is kind of the question I have for, uh, you know, Mike Evans.
108:39I will say on Adams, the one yard touchdowns were automatic last year.
108:43So I don't necessarily think those are going to go away, you know?
108:47So if you're going to bet on, and his over under his prop at total has said it for touchdowns, said it nine and a half.
108:54So people out there, if you think they go away, right, go ahead.
108:58And the Vegas is daring you to bet that this guy doesn't score double digit.
109:03I'd be more than happy to take the under on that.
109:06I mean, yeah, for sure. For sure. I mean, yeah, I'm saying do, I mean, I think that's the smart bet.
109:12This is the way I do it is that I, I look at the markets and I will usually incorporate that a
109:18little bit, at least into my fantasy analysis and say like, okay, you know, this guy, just like the markets they have
109:25is over under for yards said only at like 800, 820, 824.5.
109:28Yeah. Again, I was just looking at it. If anyone thinks I'm like a real sicko, like I was just looking at it.
109:35So it's not like I just memorized. That's good.
109:38Either way. We love you either way. It'd be such a waste of time to memorize because they change.
109:43It's like every day, right? Studying the lines. Yeah.
109:46I just up all night, like with the baby, I kind of have been doing that.
109:51I've watched so much preseason. You've got that, you've got that red thread with the, you know, the, the thumbtacks.
109:56You're just like, the red wires connected to the blue wires, the green wire middle of the night.
110:02Yeah. But like you feel go to feed a baby and it's like minimum 20 minutes.
110:06Dude, you can watch pretty much every meaningful snap from a condensed preseason game.
110:10Yes, you can. Yep. Everybody out there. If you have a baby, it's not the end of the world.
110:16If you shoot for, uh, anytime during football season, it's going to be great during football season.
110:21Cause I'll just watch condensed games when I'm sitting there on my iPad.
110:25Bang, dude, let's go. I'm fired up about that, dude.
110:28I have another bottle. Yep. I will say, I don't want them to take out any plays in the condensed game.
110:34Just give me the whole thing. Like, that's what I'm really looking for.
110:38I don't want the punts out. Yeah. Get rid, get rid of the in-between part.
110:42Yeah. But they'll take away a lot of plays.
110:45I'm like, ah, it's third and three or something.
110:47What happened? I'd like to see the two runs.
110:50Just show them to me. I want to see the penalties too.
110:53Like I like to see like, yeah. Yeah. An end zone pass.
110:57That is a offensive pass interference. I still want to see that.
111:00Let me see it. Let me just see it.
111:03And then I would be watching. If I didn't want to see it, I would be just going to fantasy points or whatever.
111:10And looking at the stats. Yeah. I want to see them all.
111:13That's the only criticism I have. I want to see them play.
111:17If anybody knows where they, do you know where someone, I mean, other than I, like I want condensed game every play.
111:23So. Yeah, you can do. So NFL plus premium.
111:26And for listeners out there, this is, this is their film room on NFL plus premium is incredible.
111:31Where you can go in and pick a specific player.
111:34So I can go in today and click Brock Bowers and then click either on field or just targets.
111:40And I can watch every snap that he did on field, or I can click targets and watch every target of his.
111:46And it'll just do the plays back to back to back.
111:49And if you go in there and just watch the games that way, you can watch every play that way.
111:55If you just kind of set the parameters to do that, you can watch every play that way.
112:00And it doesn't take out the, it doesn't take out the penalties.
112:04It just shows you every play as its own individual clip, clip, clip, clip, And you can watch sideline angle.
112:10You can watch whatever. So that's what I do when I clip things.
112:14And when I do studies like the Marvin Harrison one, where I was pulling all the gifts or whatever.
112:19But that is actually the way to do, to do that.
112:22And, and the other beautiful thing is these keyboard controls.
112:25So if you're halfway through a play and you realize, Oh, I don't care about that.
112:30Or it gets the end of the play and they're going back to the huddle.
112:34You just press N and it skips right to the next play.
112:38It's really a, it is, unfortunately at times it turns watching football truly turns it into work.
112:43Yeah. You know, I'll, if I watch enough like that, I will go back and watch a full game with the broadcast
112:49and the commercials just to have some fun. Yeah.
112:52Right. Forget what people say, dude. The broadcast is fun.
112:55Yeah. Listen, even though guys you hate hating on Collinsworth is fun.
112:58Yeah. You know, getting a little buildup, but I definitely don't like, you know, Arizona versus, you know, whatever.
113:04I don't need to watch it. I don't need to, I don't need three hours of my time to, I can, that
113:10little end button would be boop, boop, boop. I'd be like, all right, I, I fucking, I got it.
113:16It's just crazy. Right. The, the, the broadcast for preseason games is brutal.
113:20The Patriots, you watch Patriots ones where they bring in the, they go to the Jordan furniture studio.
113:25It's like, it's like Christian Fourier. Well, I still, I like his boy, but it's fine.
113:30Yeah. I mean, not throwing any shade, but it's, I like Christian Fourier.
113:33I like Christian Fourier. I just, I used his name as somebody I like instead of using some of the other names,
113:40but it's like, why are we going to this furniture store during the middle of preseason game?
113:45Yes. They paid good money for that spot. They did.
113:48Jordan furniture rocks, by the way, anybody out here, dude, like they have the mom machine.
113:52Do they still have that mom machine? The IMAX.
113:55Yeah. They have it all to take your kid out there.
113:58It's a blast. So not to bash Jordan furniture either.
114:01I'm just saying that like, when I'm trying to work, like I don't need to hear from, from anybody at all.
114:07I need to see the players. Well, speaking of seeing the players, we did it.
114:12We, we did a podcast. We could go for two more hours, but I think we're going to cut it here.
114:18We're going to let you get some sleep. Those eyes are looking heavy player.
114:22I was, yeah, I was hitting the ice coffee during this one.
114:25There were a couple of hiccups in there. I think I started off saying that I've been awake for three years.
114:31Yeah. No, you had a three year old, a three week year old.
114:35Yeah. Three week year old. Yeah. Three week year old.
114:38Yeah. Don't cut that. No way. Three week year old stays in.
114:42Say thank you to the people. You got it.
114:44You got it. You got it. So many good people on the crew, man.
114:48I love, I love your crew, man. Thanks, man.
114:51Yeah, we are. We're, we're grateful. We've got the coolest website ever and it's only going to get cooler.
114:57We're making some, we're making some moves. We're grateful to have Keegan on board.
115:01It's funny, man. Every, every time I mentioned it, everybody's like, Keegan's the best.
115:05If you don't know Keegan, go follow him on Twitter.
115:08But he's basically a partner of ours here at OTC.
115:11Just want to give him a shout out. Got to give a shout out to Smitty.
115:15The, the, my man who takes care of editing and doing so much stuff and so much work with Michael P.
115:21Duncan. I literally was like, I'm trying to throw Smitty and Trav into the, the outro.
115:26And everyone's like, just keep it. Michael P. Duncan.
115:29I'm like, all right, bro. I, you know, I'm Michael is the man, but you know, I was trying to, trying to give credit.
115:36We're used to it. We're used to at this stage.
115:39You didn't, you know, but I think, I think we got to understand.
115:42How about this? People understand that when you say Michael P.
115:46Duncan, it means more than just Michael P. Duncan.
115:48It sure does, man. There's so many people that hold us up and I try, you know, from the beginning, I've always wanted to give credit.
115:56That's why my outro always had that, you know?
115:59So I'm so grateful for the people around us and I'm so grateful for our friendship, my friend.
116:04And I sounds like it's on the rocks given the fact that I didn't go visit you while I was out, out
116:10East, but you know, Hey, you know, win some, lose some, you know, I'll find more friends.
116:15Yeah. I mean, I was so ready to agree with you until, until you wrong pulled the end of that comment there.
116:22Oh, geez. I got you. You were like, Oh, this is a good show.
116:26He's being sentimental and everything. That's it. That's called a backhanded compliment.
116:29I believe I'm not even sure, but thank you so much.
116:32I'll tell you, I bet if you were in town, you would call Michael P.
116:37Duncan and go visit. Yeah. Like when you were here in Boston, that's all that, you know, maybe, I don't know.
116:43I'm not, I'm pretty tired of him to be honest with you.
116:46No, I love him. He's my boy. All right, buddy.
116:49Hey, thank you so much. Appreciate you. Thank you, man.
116:52I needed, I need, this is, this is where I thrive, dude, with another person that like is willing where we can
116:59disagree on a player, talk about all the sides, talk about all the bets that you can make, whether it's the book, best ball, whatever.
117:06And then you can make the call for yourself because the people that listen to this show are smart and they want,
117:12they just want, they want information and they want angles and then they can make the decisions for themselves, you know?
117:19So you beautiful people out there. I love to get a chance to kind of say what's been on my mind and
117:25no one better than the Jacks, man. Best host in the industry.
117:29I love you, man. Appreciate you on behalf of everybody here at the undrafted on behalf of everybody here at OTC on behalf of the greatest podcast producer.
117:37You ever walked the earth, Mr. Michael P. Duncan, you have been joined by the tight end whisperer, Mr.
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