3 NFL Offenses That Will Decide 2026 Fantasy Football - Guest Nick From BDGE

Ben Johnson is entering his year two as Bears offensive coordinator and is expected to take a huge leap; the source notes that Johnson routinely got 4,500 passing yards and 30-35 passing touchdowns out of Jared Goff in Detroit, and while Goff is a more consistent down-to-down passer than Caleb Williams, there's no reason Caleb can't reach similar statistical output. However, the source has overall concerns that the fantasy community is conflating 'very good team' with 'very high statistical output team,' noting that Detroit's defenses allowed 28-37 points per game, whereas Chicago's defense likely won't be as porous.

Caleb Williams has significant play-to-play upside rivaling Patrick Mahomes but remains inconsistent in accuracy on a down-to-down basis, making a lot of bad plays and bad throws. The source projects him to fall just shy of 4,000 passing yards (by about 60 yards), raising concerns about whether the Bears offense can support all its receiving assets at their current ADP levels. This inconsistency particularly matters for downfield receivers like Roma Dunze who need accurate passes. Ben Johnson's year-two as offensive coordinator is expected to take a huge leap—Johnson routinely got 4,500 passing yards and 30-35 passing touchdowns out of Jared Goff in Detroit—but the source cautions that the fantasy community is conflating 'very good team' with 'very high statistical output team,' noting Detroit's defenses allowed 28-37 points per game whereas Chicago's defense likely won't be as porous.

Brown is a no-brainer in the early second round and feels ahead of market. The source expects the same or better production given that nothing materially changed in the Bengals backfield and Brown has produced high-ceiling outcomes in back-to-back seasons. Brown is the clear workhorse with no meaningful competition (Samaja Perine only took scraps). The source projects he could lead the NFL in running back touchdowns this year given the Bengals' top-scoring offensive situation and the need to score 25+ points per game to win. Brown is also the Bengals' third leading target guy after Burrow's primary reads to Chase and T Higgins; he has consistently been the next option week-over-week and year-over-year, giving him dual-threat upside as both a rusher and receiver.

Limited pass-catching ability and not a viable weekly starter unless Etienne is injured; foot injury status is a concern entering the season; 30% red zone rush rate and 40% rush rate inside the five-yard line (ranked 10th in NFL) creates red zone vulturing risk for Etienne's touchdown upside; joining a new team while already dealing with injury puts him behind Etienne in the depth chart.

Signed to one-year, $6 million deal; ADP 216 (essentially undrafted); past his prime and unlikely to see significant playing time over Ricky Pearsall by season's end; limited upside given the presence of Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle as primary targets; viewed as a bench rotator in deep leagues who will likely be a quick drop to waivers once the season starts; the source is completely disinterested in Kirk despite the cheap price.

Primary target earner in the 49ers red zone as a pass-catcher; likely to remain the top target earner in the red zone even with Mike Evans and George Kittle in the offense; volume is typically funneled between two players in this offense, with McCaffrey being one of them.

Colson Loveland is projected at a 20% target share and 28% red zone target share, placing him between historical tight end benchmarks (Hunter Henry and Trey McBride at 30%, Goddard Bowers and Tyler Warren at 27%). The source feels more confident in Loveland producing on a game-by-game basis and being consistently involved in the offense compared to Luther Burden. Loveland was drafted by Ben Johnson and is expected to be a core part of the offense. ADP 38.4.

DeAndre Swift is a core position player in the Bears offense drafted in the top 70 (ADP 53); however, the source notes that when watching the Bears last year, Swift and Kyle Monungai got carry after carry, suggesting the Bears may lean heavily on the run game. The source wonders if the Bears will try to get back to running the football more to take pressure off Caleb Williams, especially given offensive line injuries (Drew Dahlman's retirement, Ozzy Trapilo's season-ending injury). This could limit Swift's receiving upside. By the end of last year, owning both Swift and Monungai became a tough watch as they went drive-by-drive, with the outcome depending on who happened to be on the field in the red zone, suggesting a timeshare dynamic that limits ceiling for both backs.

Returning from torn Achilles with significant uncertainty around effectiveness and return timetable; sports physician Dr. Jesse Morris reviewed video footage of Kittle's running and timeline post-Achilles injury and had major concerns about whether Kittle can return to his previous form, leaving the source hesitant on Kittle for this year; will compete with Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans for red zone targets in San Francisco offense; likely not the top red zone target earner in the offense upon return; at ADP 104, can be mixed and matched with other tight ends rather than requiring a premium draft investment; however, the source prefers to target top-eight tight ends and avoid paying up for elite production, instead seeking reliable week-to-week performers like Tyler Warren and Tucker Kraft.

Kyle Monungai is a core offensive player in the Bears offense (ADP 93) who, along with DeAndre Swift, received carry after carry last year. The source notes that by the end of the year, owning both Swift and Monungai became a tough watch as they went drive-by-drive, with the outcome depending on who happened to be on the field in the red zone. This timeshare dynamic limits ceiling for both backs.

Limited role as backup running back in Jacksonville's two-man committee with Travis Etienne Jr.; will play in obvious passing situations but unlikely to see significant early-down work; projected to play approximately 15% of snaps; better pass-catcher than Chris Rodriguez but will not receive the screen passes and early-down targets that flow to Etienne.

Luther Burden was handpicked by Ben Johnson and fits the mold of an Amon-Ra St. Brown-type receiver in Johnson's offense; he is expected to get schemed-up touches around the line of scrimmage and could catch 15-20 screen passes this year alone, giving him a high floor with explosive ability after the catch. However, the source expresses concern about how high his actual week-to-week floor truly is in fantasy, noting that 2-3 targets per game converted to 24 yards doesn't move the needle without big plays or touchdowns. The source is more hesitant on Burden than on other Bears receivers. ADP 44.5.

ADP 54 in a new situation with San Francisco; projected for approximately 10 touchdowns in a high-scoring Kyle Shanahan offense with Brock Purdy; despite age 32.9 and recent hamstring injuries, still competing at a top level when healthy; likely to be heavily involved in the red zone as a high-target-share receiver in a top-scoring offense; yards per reception and air yards dipped last year but he only played eight games.

Strong per-route efficiency and good separator who fits Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme well; can be moved inside and outside the formation; moving into a role as one of Brock Purdy's favorite targets in the 49ers offense; Shanahan loves to move him around to get open in space and move over the middle of the field, contrasting with Evans who runs most routes on the outside; sits at ADP 105, which is a solid price for a receiver in a top-five to top-ten offense with injury concerns at Evans and Kittle; the source plans to have decent exposure at this cost and expects him to play a ton of snaps on the outside in two-receiver sets alongside Evans; potential to become featured if Mike Evans hits an age cliff.

Perine took some work and scraps off the plate in the Bengals backfield last year but is not a meaningful threat to Chase Brown's workhorse role; the backfield has no additions, leaving Brown as the clear lead back.

Projected for approximately 862 rushing yards (200 carries at 4.3 yards per carry) plus 40.9 targets and receiving yards to exceed 1,000 yards from scrimmage; potential for 8-12 total touchdowns given red zone upside in a top-10 scoring offense; ranked top-five in screen targets among running backs last year, with early-down pass work likely to flow to him rather than LaQuint Allen or Chris Rodriguez.

Trevor Lawrence is in the MVP conversation alongside Caleb Williams, indicating the source views him as a potential breakout candidate in 2026. Jacksonville is identified as one of the most important teams to nail for fantasy football, with the source feeling confident the Jaguars will be a top-10 offense. However, Lawrence's nine rushing touchdowns last year create vulturing concern for Etienne's red zone touchdown upside; Lawrence is a large, durable quarterback (Josh Allen-sized) who can absorb hits without needing to scale back rushing attempts and will remain involved in goal-line situations, limiting Etienne's TD ceiling.

The source is targeting Kraft as a reliable week-to-week tight end option instead of paying up for elite production. The source is more optimistic about Kraft's injury recovery given his young age (25 years old) compared to aging tight ends like George Kittle (33), who faces post-Achilles concerns and potential Mark Andrews-like decline into touchdown dependency.

The source is targeting Warren as a reliable week-to-week tight end option instead of paying up for elite production. The source is more optimistic about Warren's injury recovery given his young age (25 years old) compared to aging tight ends like George Kittle (33), who faces post-Achilles concerns and potential Mark Andrews-like decline into touchdown dependency.