NFC North Breakdown + Upside Players - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/18

Kamara reworked his contract to stay with the Saints, but he will not do anything on his own to be important in fantasy and whatever he does comes at the expense of someone you want to start.

Caleb Williams completed only 58% of his passes, dead last in completion percentage versus zone and off-target rate among qualified quarterbacks, showing inconsistency despite his elite physical attributes and talent.

Caleb Williams had extreme variance in his game log with some monster performances (QB9, QB4, QB11 to close the season) but also two games with single-digit fantasy points, making him boom-or-bust for fantasy purposes.

Caleb Williams should improve in year two with more time in the system, healthier weapons including Colston Loveland and Luther Burden (both rookies last year), and DJ Moore potentially bouncing back after a down year.

Christian Watson is going as WR30 and is a very interesting pick despite limited statistics; the Packers keep paying him and wanting him around, and he just received another extension.

Christian Watson is one of three primary starting wide receivers for the Packers and is worthy of a pick at his current draft position; the analyst takes him over Matthew Golden in the wide receiver room hierarchy.

Colston Loveland had a 28% target share in the playoffs as a rookie tight end, signaling he is the answer to Chicago Bears pass catchers and is going in the fourth round as the tight end three with significant upside.

42% of Colston Loveland's fantasy points came in the fourth quarter, suggesting his production was inflated by garbage-time situations when the Bears were mounting comebacks.

DJ Moore barely broke tackles last year, which is what he was so good at previously, suggesting a down year and potential decline in his elite production.

D'Andre Swift is the only running back besides Derek Henry to finish inside the top 24 in each of the last six years, showing consistent elite production regardless of circumstances.

Montgomery vacated 34 red zone carries, 14 inside-the-five carries, and 158 rushing attempts with the Lions, creating a significant workload opportunity for his replacement.

Isaiah Pacheco is not good, but the Chiefs' strong offensive line means if Gibbs goes down, someone will have significant touchdown scoring opportunities.

Jaden Reed is a worthy pick at his current draft position in the nebulous Packers wide receiver room; the analyst prefers him over Matthew Golden.

Jaden Reed is not played in two-wide receiver sets by the Packers, which limits his fantasy upside since he can't score points if he's not on the field.

The Packers love how they use Jaden Reed in his specific role and view it positively rather than as a negative reflection of his talent.

Jordan Love is a very good quarterback with elite efficiency metrics: first in EPA with a clean pocket, sixth in passer rating, seventh in completion percentage over expectation, and fourth in pressure-to-sack ratio among 38 qualifying QBs with 200+ drop backs.

Jordan Love is a good quarterback operating in a great offensive system under Matt LaFleur, rather than being a great quarterback on his own merits.

Josh Jacobs has pending legal issues related to a domestic assault accusation; he was arrested but released after new evidence emerged, with his legal team expressing confidence the matter is resolved, though investigation remains technically open.

Assuming Josh Jacobs plays, he is a strong pick with no on-field concerns; he is the primary and featured running back with a clear role and consistent goal-line usage.

Josh Jacobs is the primary scorer for the Packers and has been consistently given goal-line opportunities; he was on pace for 20 rushing touchdowns through the first nine games last year and has scored touchdowns every year as a Packer.

Josh Jacobs was a running back 2 or better in every game before his injury last year, with several top-10 finishes and three top-5 performances.

Josh Jacobs' efficiency declined late in the season with yards per carry dropping to 3.7, 1.9, and 3.9, and he had a strange benching with only four carries in a game despite starting.

Josh Jacobs is currently drafted as RB14 and will not be a top-three running back or fantasy football breaker, but will score a ton of fantasy points.

Khalil Herbert is the backup running back to D'Andre Swift and could see increased opportunity if Swift is injured, though he is not viewed as a strong standalone fantasy option.

Khalil Herbert is an insurance back with league-winner status should D'Andre Swift go down to injury, given the elite Bears offense and his ability to handle a heavy workload.

Khalil Herbert got a lot of touchdowns last year but is not a flex with benefits; from week 10 on he handled 45% of carries on a 200-carry pace, but is not someone you want to start regularly.

Luther Burden's ADP is too high with little margin for error, drafted 10 wide receiver spots ahead of Rome Odunze, and his production was limited to just two really good games with everything else being worthless.

Luther Burden has incredible metrics behind the scenes with elite targets per route run and yards per route run, and looked great on film as a prospect with significant talent.

Marshawn Lloyd has a history of injuries with only six total carries through two years; betting on him getting injured has been a 100% hit, though he is currently healthy.

Marshawn Lloyd is a talented day-two pick (88th overall, third round) from USC with explosive ability that the Packers need to complement Josh Jacobs' running style.

Matthew Golden is a first-round pick who could emerge as the alpha receiver in the Packers' nebulous wide receiver room, though the analyst would be surprised if he becomes the primary option.

Matthew Golden failed to score a touchdown in the regular season as a rookie despite getting opportunities; he is on a list of first-round wide receivers over the last decade who failed to score in the regular season, including Kevin White, Josh Doctson, Laquan Treadwell, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, and Cadarius Toney.

Rome Odunze's foot injury should not impact production at his peak, though there is a slightly higher re-injury risk going forward; going in the sixth round is acceptable value.

Rome Odunze is an alpha true wide receiver one who had a 25% target share and 37% of wide receiver targets in the first seven games before a foot injury derailed his season; he should return as the clear number one target.

Romeo Doubs was the wide receiver three for the first month of the season but plummeted to wide receiver 38 from weeks 6-13, showing significant inconsistency and decline in production.

Tucker Kraft was having a breakout season before his ACL injury, starting as the tight end one with 6 for 124 and a touchdown in Week 2.

Tucker Kraft tore his ACL after Week 13 and is out for the remainder of the season.

Tucker Kraft is expected to be ready at the beginning of the year despite his ACL injury; his athleticism is off the charts and he is dominant, making him worth targeting despite potential slow games early in the season.

Tucker Kraft is probably the Packers' best weapon and would be drafted ahead of Colson Loveland if not for his knee injury.

Tucker Kraft was on pace for 1,139 receiving yards before his injury, a number only achieved by Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle in recent years, placing him in an elite tier.

Tucker Kraft is not expected to be at full strength in Week 1 despite the timeline suggesting he could play; he will likely get off to a slow start.

Tucker Kraft going in the middle of the sixth round is acceptable value given the risk; if he has a slow start like last year with four down weeks, you can still grab him and have the opportunity for a true breakout.