PodcastFrom Fantasy Footballers
10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your League + MEGALABOWL! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/19
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
59 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 19, 2026
Published
Wed, August 19, 2026
60
Player insights
46
Players mentioned
Topics
Travis EtienneAlvin KamaraBlake CorumBreece HallDalton SchultzDavid MontgomeryLamar JacksonMike EvansTank BigsbyTank DellTee HigginsTerry McLaurinTony PollardAaron Jones
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeBust44:14
Aaron Jones is an older running back who does not benefit from the 'encore effect,' making him a risky selection at his current draft position.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
NegativeProjection53:04
Alvin Kamara did not provide strong early-season fantasy production last year.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveValue21:33
Blake Corum is identified as a top-tier backup running back to target for predictable value if the starter goes down.
Insight pageNegativeRole33:26
Blake Corum is an insurance running back who should be rostered everywhere, though managers should not expect immediate production from him.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeProjection53:00
Breece Hall did not have a strong start to the season last year, making him difficult to plug and play early on.
Insight pageNegativeMatchup53:53
Breece Hall faces an uphill battle early in the season as the Jets are projected to be underdogs in at least three of their first four games.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
NegativeValue34:53
Drafting Brock Bowers early can impact team construction, leading to a preference for starting with a stud running back in the first round.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
NegativeInjury12:46
Carnell Tate missed practice following a big hit, with concerns that he may be dealing with a head-related injury.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveProjection55:48
Christian McCaffrey is a player of such high caliber that managers who swore off drafting him after past disappointments likely regret not having him on their rosters.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeProjection52:55
Chuba Hubbard had a few good games last year but was ultimately a rough fantasy asset to rely on.
Insight pageCyrus Allen
NegativeBust33:48
If Cyrus Allen is not on the field for at least 75% of snaps in Week 1, managers should be prepared to drop him immediately.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeValue24:51
Dalton Schultz is a player to monitor and potentially move up your draft board if news breaks in the days leading up to your draft.
Insight pagePositiveProjection26:45
In tight end premium formats, Dalton Schultz is projected to have 80+ catches.
Insight pageDavante Adams
NegativeBust40:34
Davante Adams is an older wide receiver who falls into the category of players likely to experience a steep age-related decline, making him a risky draft pick.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveValue30:24
David Montgomery is a seventh-round pick on ESPN, which is considered a good value.
Insight pagePositiveValue48:36
David Montgomery is priced 15 picks behind his current ADP, suggesting he is a value according to the source's consensus projections.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveValue42:55
Derrick Henry benefits from the 'encore effect,' where older players who have already defied age-related decline are more likely to continue performing well.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeInjury14:02
Emeka Egbuka is dealing with turf toe and was seen wearing a hard-soled shoe for protection.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeValue30:21
Garrett Wilson's ADP shows the opposite trend of Tee Higgins between Yahoo and ESPN.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeInjury43:56
George Kittle is entering the older player demographic, and his fantasy value is complicated by both his age and ongoing availability concerns.
Insight pageHunter Henry
NegativeUsage28:53
Hunter Henry is a reliable, 'tried and true' tight end option who posted a 17% target share, 72% route percentage, and 15% air yard share last season.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveBreakout29:09
Isaiah Likely is highlighted as a late-round tight end candidate who could emerge as a viable fantasy option this year.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue35:51
Jalen Hurts is considered an elite, game-changing quarterback option who is currently available in the sixth round.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
Jayden Daniels
PositiveValue35:51
Jayden Daniels is considered an elite, game-changing quarterback option who is currently available in the sixth round.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
NegativeInjury25:06
Jaden Higgins suffered a torn ACL, which is a major blow to the Texans' wide receiver depth.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveValue48:44
Jalen Warren is being pushed up to the sixth round on Sleeper despite the source's consensus projections valuing him as an eighth-round pick.
Insight pageJerome Ford
Joe Burrow
PositiveProjection36:26
Joe Burrow is a player to target in the fifth round who has the potential to push for the QB1 overall finish this season.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeMatchup53:28
Jonathan Taylor faces an uphill battle early in the season as the Colts are projected to be underdogs in at least three of their first four games.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveValue35:10
Josh Allen is the certified QB1 and, while still an early pick, his ADP has shifted to the end of the second round, offering better value than in previous years.
Insight pageKendre Miller
NegativeInjury8:18
Kendre Miller is back at practice, though the source expresses skepticism regarding his impact on the backfield.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveValue21:43
Kenny Gainwell is identified as a draft-day target who provides predictable value if the starter goes down.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveUsage28:30
Kyle Pitts is a recommended tight end target because he meets key efficiency metrics: 21% target share, 86% route participation, and 21% air yard share.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveValue30:10
Kyren Williams is currently a better value on ESPN compared to Sleeper.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue35:33
Lamar Jackson is currently the QB2 in ADP, but he is being drafted a full round and a half later than in 2025, making him a significant value at the turn of the fourth round.
Insight pageNegativeProjection55:23
Despite a horrific bad beat in Week 1 last year where he fumbled in overtime, Lamar Jackson remains a player of high caliber who should be drafted again.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
PositiveValue43:37
Matthew Stafford is an older player who benefits from the 'encore effect,' making him a more reliable option despite his age.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeInjury11:43
Mike Evans is dealing with quadriceps tightness and a potential foot injury, leading to concerns about his health.
Insight pageNegativeBust40:34
Mike Evans is an older wide receiver who falls into the category of players likely to experience a steep age-related decline, making him a risky draft pick.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveInjury8:51
Quentin Johnston left a joint practice with an undisclosed lower body injury but is confirmed to be totally fine.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveUsage28:44
Sam LaPorta is a recommended tight end target who checks all the necessary boxes for fantasy production, including an 18% target share.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue23:10
Stefon Diggs is a player to mark on your draft board because his ADP is suppressed due to a lack of time to climb the board, making him a potential value target.
Insight pageTank Bigsby
PositiveValue21:33
Tank Bigsby is identified as a top-tier backup running back to target for predictable value if the starter goes down.
Insight pagePositiveValue23:53
Tank Bigsby is a late-round target that managers often forget to draft if they don't actively mark him on their cheat sheet or draft board.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveValue24:02
Tank Dell is a 16th-round target who is easily missed during drafts; managers should mark him specifically to ensure they don't scroll past him.
Insight pageNegativeRole25:40
Following Jaden Higgins' injury, Tank Dell has an opportunity, though there is uncertainty regarding his recovery.
Insight pageTee Higgins
NegativeValue24:44
Recent news regarding Tee Higgins shortly before a draft may necessitate adjusting his position on your draft board to account for shifting value.
Insight pageNegativeValue30:16
Tee Higgins is a third-round pick on Yahoo and a fifth-round pick on ESPN.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeValue45:16
Terry McLaurin is 30.9 years old and does not technically fit the 'oldest players' statistical sample, though his age remains a factor to consider.
Insight pageNegativeProjection45:17
Terry McLaurin is 30.9 years old and will turn 31, meaning he does not technically fit the age-based criteria for the 'oldest' player list discussed by the source.
Insight pageTony Pollard
NegativeValue48:51
Tony Pollard is being drafted 11 spots ahead of where the source projects his ADP should be.
Insight pageNegativeProjection53:06
Tony Pollard was not a running back that fantasy managers could plug and play with confidence during the early part of last season.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveRole8:22
With Alvin Kamara sidelined, Travis Etienne Jr. is expected to maintain his role without significant competition from depth backs like Kendre Miller or Devin Neal.
Insight pageNegativeValue48:28
Travis Etienne Jr. is currently being drafted 10 spots ahead of his ADP, making him a candidate for being significantly overdrafted according to the source's value scout tool.
Insight pageNegativeValue52:42
Despite being on a winning team, Travis Etienne Jr. was a disappointment for fantasy managers last year, serving as a reminder that early-season team success doesn't always guarantee fantasy value.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveValue41:07
Travis Kelce is an exception to the age-related decline rule for tight ends, as he has consistently performed at an elite level despite his age.
Insight pageTre Harris
Trey McBride
NegativeValue34:53
Drafting Trey McBride early can impact team construction, leading to a preference for starting with a stud running back in the first round.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to crush, humiliate, and totally destroy your competition in your fantasy football draft.
0:07It's incredibly simple, so let me just break it down for you.
0:11Ultimate Draft Kit The Ultimate Draft Kit from the Fantasy Footballers is hands down the best fantasy tool in existence.
0:18I mean, come on. It's got sleepers, it's got bus, injury updates, full projections, this thing's even got full dynasty rankings.
0:25Don't overthink this. It's the only wingman you'll need this year.
0:29Head over to UltimateDraftKit.com and grab your copy right away.
0:32To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
0:37Welcome in! The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, Wednesday, August 19th.
0:40Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway in the building.
0:43In the house! Oh, the growls are percolating, the ducers are deucing, as they do every day.
0:49But yeah, we got a, I mean, we can get straight to it.
0:53I mean, we got a big, what? Got a big announcement today.
0:57I don't want to hear the, like, subtle... Straight to what?
1:01What? People have been asking for a while. It's time.
1:05Go ahead, Jay. Go ahead. What's your announcement? It's the Megalobo!
1:08Oh, baby! It's terrifying this year. It is terrifying.
1:11That's right. The Megalobo for 2026. It's time, baby.
1:14That graphic is awesome. Yeah, we have an aquarium in the back.
1:18And point out some scale issues. Those footballs! There's some...
1:22The size of a boat, sir. Those are large footballs.
1:25If you don't know what the Megalobo it is, it is the largest fantasy football league.
1:30It is the most prestigious, the fantasy football leagues.
1:33More than 21,000 of you played it last year.
1:36It is Megalobo.com. Oh, it's go time. If you're a Foot Clan supporter, you get an entry into the Megalobo.
1:43Drafts will be held Friday, September 4th, all the way through Tuesday, September 8th.
1:48Kickoff is Wednesday this year. And you can, right this moment, go to Megalobo.com, and you can claim your draft slot today.
1:55Yeah, it's a fun league. We try to make all of the rules, all the settings exactly similar to how we play
2:03our league of record, other than it's not a keeper format.
2:06You're going to play against 12 people, randomly assigned, other Foot Clan members that...
2:11Oh! ...that love this game. The giant balls are back!
2:14I think I broke something for him. But it disappeared too soon.
2:19I wanted it back for the second time when Jason was talking.
2:23Yeah, so, but the leagues are really, really fun.
2:26You're going to be playing with other Foot Clan members.
2:29In the end, the last three weeks, if you make the playoffs, which the top half of each league does, it's tournament-style,
2:36highest points goes forward each week until the championship.
2:39And at that final week, the winner of the Megalobo is guaranteed a spot with us in the next year's Listener League.
2:47So if you've been... That's not all. And... An ultimate subscription.
2:50Subscription. But wait! For life! There's more! For life!
2:53Yeah, the Ultimate Foot Clan membership, you will be a part of this forever.
2:58So a lot of cool reasons to play in the Megalobo.
3:02Everybody loves it. Sign up. Make sure you do it now.
3:06There's plenty of draft slots to go around. We're going to play.
3:10Yeah, I'm in it. I've already got my draft slot signed up.
3:14We've got draft slots picked out. I'm sure the deucers will be in there, and it'll be a great time.
3:20So you can do it now. Megalobo.com. Watching this, man.
3:24We need to make that screen like an aquarium more often.
3:27Oh, yeah. That's feeling good. Yeah, that was nice.
3:30I should add this, too. Like, if you bought the Ultimate Draft Kit and you want to be in the Megalobo and
3:38you're not a Foot Clan member, we will credit your full amount of the UDK towards an Ultimate membership.
3:44So it's dollar for dollar all the way up till kickoff.
3:48It's just what we do every year. Because sometimes people buy the UDK and they're like, well, I want to be in the Megalobo.
3:56Don't wait until kickoff, though, because then you'll miss the draft.
4:00Yeah, don't do that. Just do it right now.
4:03And as far as how you do that, it's really easy.
4:06You just, if you're logged in and you have the UDK, then it'll automatically, when you go to the Foot Clan membership
4:14page, it just automatically will show you the discount.
4:17Yep. So there you go. Megalobo.com. News and notes from around the league.
4:21By the way, we finally have our top 10 tips and tricks.
4:25Dang it. It's not tricks. It's tips and, oh, it is tips and tricks.
4:30Tricks and tips. I've been doing this every day now.
4:33Oh, man. What else could it be? What is dementia?
4:37You know what I mean? What is that? How do you spell dementia, Jay?
4:41A-N-D-Y. We would tell you, but you won't remember.
4:44Okay. Yeah, that's today. We will have tips and tricks.
4:48You may not believe in any of mine after this intro.
4:51Alvin Kamara, here's some news. Will miss at least one month due to a sprained MCL.
4:57Rumbelaya. Yeah. And somehow Kendra Miller is back at practice.
5:00Oh, stop. I don't believe you. But Travis H.
5:03And Jr., big deal. Yes. Kendra Miller, Devin Neal, back at practice.
5:07But they are not the type of backs. Like, I do worry about Travis H.
5:12And Jr. With Kamara involved. He is, you know, obviously a big part of this franchise.
5:18And he will take some of the receiving work.
5:21With him gone, Kendra Miller and Devin Neal are not going to eat into Travis H.
5:26And Jr. We'll talk more about him upcoming. But this is good news for Travis H.
5:31And Jr. Sorry, Kamara. Quinton Johnson left Tuesday's joint practice against the 49ers with an undisclosed lower body injury.
5:38But is, quote, totally fine. Well, that, you know.
5:41Okay. Actually, what's ironic about this is that the news was about Quinton Johnson's injury.
5:46And then you see that and you go, oh, dude, my guy, Trey Harris.
5:51But then it turns out the truth is that Trey Harris was actually missing.
5:55He was gone for injury undisclosed. And Quinton Johnson's fine.
5:59So really the news is not that Quinton Johnson's injured.
6:02It's that Trey Harris is. Why don't you share the other news for the...
6:07Yeah, the other one's the big one. No. I will not share it.
6:11Yeah, the all-world center that the Chargers picked up, Tyler Beatish.
6:15He's going to miss a significant amount of time.
6:18Sounds like a lot. Yeah. Significant. He injured several ligaments, damage to his ACL and additional injuries to his left knee.
6:25Gross. He is seeking second opinions on how to deal with it.
6:29So we don't know for sure. I mean, as of right now, I think we just assume he's gone for the season.
6:36TBD, it could change. But it's terrible, awful, very bad, no good news.
6:41Very bad news. And Slater, their left tackle, also currently injured.
6:44His is much better. He's going to miss a little bit of time.
6:49I mean, yes, it is better than potentially missing the whole season.
6:53But didn't they say it was a flare-up? I thought I had read that.
6:58So maybe I'm speaking out of turn here. I'm unaware if it was a flare-up or not.
7:03Yeah, that's not great. Kyle Shanahan said after Tuesday's practice, Mike Evans experienced tightness.
7:08This is quadriceps. Mike Evans did the Grandpa Simpson gif.
7:11He got back out there and goes, nope. Also, I heard a foot injury on top of this.
7:17Mike Evans is falling apart. He should never have gone near that substation.
7:22They're running out of wide receivers not named Strib Club right now.
7:26Yeah. It is confirmed that Slater is a flare-up, but the timeline is supposed to be about two weeks.
7:32I say flare-up as in because he's coming off a torn patella, so it's that.
7:37Yeah. That's not good. That's not good. That's not what you want to hear.
7:42It's like having a quadriceps injury after having a quadriceps injury.
7:46For Mike Evans? Yeah. Yeah. Carnell Tate, undisclosed absence from practice.
7:49It was. He took a very big hit, and they weren't saying whether or not he had a concussion, but he didn't
7:57participate in the next day's practice, so dealing with something, but it seemed like it was head-related.
8:02Did you know Jerome Ford was a member of the Commander's Nation?
8:06I did, yeah. And he is now on injured reserve.
8:10I saw that as well. So then he's toast?
8:13He's out for the year? Is that what you're saying?
8:16I just see injured reserve. I don't think injured reserve guarantees loss for the year right now.
8:22Kyle, is it the whole year? Man, Jerome Ford was not a part of the performance.
8:27No, but Rashad White is not practicing. I mean, right now it's Bill.
8:32Draft him. And then Jalen McMillen back at practice for the Buccaneers, which...
8:36That is news that that team needed. Yeah. I mean, there was more news on Emeka Ekbuka.
8:42He was wearing one of those hard-soled shoes to protect the toe, which from what they were saying, things came back clean.
8:49I mean, it's just not a great sign for the grade of whatever turf toe, if it's turf toe he's dealing with, which it's turf toe.
8:58But what about me, Jay? Yeah. Give me something to break.
9:02Ted Hurst. Yeah. Really, what about Chris Godwin? Who cares?
9:05Yeah. And Tez? No, Chris Godwin looking like a mighty nice value right now.
9:10All right. I don't think we have other news unless anything's been happening.
9:14I mean, we either have injury news that's real or injury news where they're like, that player just left and went to
9:21the tent and then went right back out on the field and then you're like, oh, okay.
9:27We get those a lot. I freak out many times a day.
9:31Oh, man. That Olave pump fake yesterday. Oh, yeah.
9:34Unnecessary. Olave's... Oh, his head injury, right? Wasn't it a concern about head?
9:39Oh, man. I didn't see that. If it was that, I would have probably peed my pants.
9:44I think I really would have peed my pants.
9:47If it was a head injury... That's what your reaction is to a real extreme injury.
9:53I would have done it on purpose. I would have done it just...
9:57In protest? Yeah. So not like a scared pee?
10:00No, no, no. I would have sat there until it was time.
10:04This is for you, Olave. This is for you.
10:07Golly. Golly. Well, we have our 10 tips and tricks we want to share with you.
10:13It's a big show. So we're going to kick it off right now.
10:17So... Tips and tricks. All right. It is time to jump in.
10:21Each of us contributing three different ideas for 2026 in terms of things to pay attention to, things that we're learning.
10:28We always try to bring you something new in this episode each and every year.
10:33So let's get it going. Number 10. All right.
10:36Number 10, loosely titled Out of Your Depths. I wanted to take a look and see how much depth you actually need to win at Fantasy.
10:45I've said it for years that Mike is... Mike's championship last year, I mean, and his Dynasty team have been built on
10:52a lot of depth and the unwillingness to trade away some of that depth mid-season.
10:57And he held onto it and it paid off.
11:00You got to know when to consolidate. And I've always said I adore putting together that perfect best starting lineup.
11:07But how much depth do you actually need? So let me give you some uncomfortable math to start off.
11:1327%. That is the chance... That is uncomfortable. That is very uncomfortable.
11:17Yeah, I hate that number. That is the chance of Jason peeing his pants on a daily...
11:23No. The chance of a running back playing a full season.
11:2727%. That is, you know, any running back. 7 out of 10 missed games.
11:32Last year, here's some more math. Only 6 of the top 24 wideouts that were drafted played a full season.
11:382 of the top 12 drafted receivers played every game.
11:42So, some level setting there for the amount of injury and things that you're going to deal with.
11:48Here's uncomfortable math part 2. Since 2010, only about 36% of running back 1 picks actually beat their draft slot.
11:54Gross. So, you have injury risk. You have missing games.
11:58And then you have performance risk. So, basically, the math is saying that roughly half of your first 9 picks will either underperform their cost or get injured.
12:07And you're probably going to cough up 12 to 15 starts due to injury.
12:12So, not surprisingly, you need depth. That is the answer to the question.
12:16So, maybe we don't always realize it and you try to thread the needle.
12:21Maybe you can get really lucky. Some of the best NFL teams are the healthiest teams at the end of the year.
12:28That's nice. But, what strategy do you apply per position and how should you think about that?
12:34So, briefly, I just want to talk about running back position when it comes to depth.
12:39Injuries transfer value for that team very predictably in the sense that the backup for the team or the committee back generally steps into that role.
12:48So, you know, I mean, we've named a bunch of guys this offseason.
12:53Blake Corum, Tank Bigsby. You know that there are top-tier backups and committee situations that are valuable to target.
12:59Menunga is one of them. Kenny Gainwell is one of them.
13:03These are draft day targets that you can add knowing that they're going to have a direct, predictable value if the starter goes down.
13:11On the other hand, top-tier wide receivers, if they go down, the targets on that team tend to scatter around.
13:17Not very many teams are the Pickens, CeeDee Lamb situation.
13:21So, what that means for wide receivers or what this tip kind of alludes to is that it's much tougher to predict
13:28or pre-draft the players that are going to benefit from injury, even though you know injuries are going to happen at the wide receiver position.
13:37So, the way I like to think about it is you can get predictable value transfer with depth running back selections, but
13:44the waiver wire is really going to be the place that you win when it comes to finding, you know, a valuable wide receiver.
13:52And this is why I like to take swings later on, high upside guys at the beginning that may be beneficial to
13:59your team, and you can see right away, depth is not fully solved at the draft.
14:05That's the point, is you can draft a bunch of really good players, but you're going to deal with these injuries.
14:12You're going to deal with wide receivers, and those are going to get solved on the waiver wire more than they'll get
14:19solved by drafting the next man up type of thing at wide receiver.
14:24So, the math is tough. The math I don't like.
14:27I don't like, I mean, we don't like it right now in preseason, the amount of injuries and things that don't, the unpredictable is going to happen.
14:36It is inevitable. Yeah, it sucks. I do like the idea, just the mathematical reality that stashing more running backs at the
14:43end of your bench is probably wiser than the wide receivers.
14:47Because wide receivers, I mean, we've talked about this before.
14:51We'll talk about it again. The rookies get better as time goes on.
14:55Not first rounders, but the later drafted rookies. There's also guys that come out.
15:00Jawan Jennings last year. Sorry, dude. Breaking news. Oh, no.
15:03Don't be bad. Don't be bad. Don't be bad.
15:06Is it bad? It's bad. Oh, God. Jaden Higgins is a torn ACL.
15:10Oh, man. So, Houston Texans. He was one of the big publicity guys like the Pat Bryants and Cyrus Allens.
15:17Jaden Higgins' talk was, that's Texans wide receiver. That's a big bump.
15:21That is a major injury for them because. Was yesterday the sleeper episode?
15:25I don't know. Yesterday, this week we had the sleeper episode.
15:29I went Jordan Mason, but it was close between Jordan Mason and Jaden Higgins, but then he had the injury.
15:36That stinks. That is brutal. Obviously, Tank Dell now has a shot.
15:40It's, yeah. I mean, their depth chart is, so Tank Dell, which that's a complete wild card of, number one, will he ever really be back?
15:49Yeah. After that type of an injury. And, you know, there's Hutchinson and other players involved.
15:54Yeah. And their third rounder from last year, Jalen Knoll.
15:57I don't know that he's a player that can, like, take over for Jaden Higgins.
16:02It's probably Hutchinson and Andy, the slowest man alive.
16:05Dr. Schultz. Dr. Schultz. Dr. Schultz. He is so there.
16:09Bro, if you're in a tight end premium where you get boosted reception totals, Dalton Schultz is probably going to have 80 plus catches.
16:17I didn't want to start the 10 tips and tricks.
16:20Yeah, sorry, everybody. It's that kind of breaking news.
16:23But, yeah, the TLDR there. Build your draft around starters.
16:27Spend the back end on running back backups you know are going to have a shot and receive a lottery ticket and
16:34then realize that you're going to need to. You build the team in August, but it's finished up in November, right?
16:41You keep the waiver wire going, play the whole season, recognize that you can keep adding.
16:46I think maybe another thought that just hit my mind, too, is that don't wait so long to take a shot on
16:54guys that you know are going to have chances at the waiver wire to start the year.
17:00Just add more and more depth. Never think that you're done on adding depth.
17:04I very much agree with that. All right, we are going to take a quick break and then we'll move it on to one of Jason's picks.
17:13All right, we're into our 10. 10 tips and tricks.
17:17And we're on to number nine. Mock it like a ding dong, baby.
17:21Mock it like it's hot. Mock drafts are exceptionally important.
17:24I know our mock draft episodes people love watching, but you need to be doing mock drafts and you need to know
17:32how you should be doing mock drafts. This is one of the most important tools available to have success in fantasy football.
17:39This is why we just built a mock draft tool in the ultimate draft kit.
17:44We have it now and our you know, we've had over a probably at this point over 200,000 mock drafts done on our mock draft tool.
17:53We've had a lot of feedback. People are loving the fact that you can actually put it to the platform you're playing
18:00on and you can use it to where you're seeing what you're going to see.
18:05I want to give you a couple examples of why that's important.
18:10Kyron right now is around cheaper on ESPN than he is on sleeper like just just better values.
18:16T Higgins right now is round three on Yahoo and a fifth rounder on ESPN.
18:21Whereas Garrett Wilson is the exact opposite. You got David Montgomery a guy that I in the offseason.
18:27I was like, I like David Montgomery. Now it's like he's a fifth rounder.
18:31But then I was like, I was like, he's a seventh rounder on ESPN.
18:36That's like, OK, even I can get with that.
18:39All right. Travo, you know, Travo's a seventh rounder on ESPN, a fourth rounder on sleeper.
18:44I mean, those are wildly different. So what you do is you use you put in the platform that you're playing on
18:52so that you can see what the ADP is.
18:55ADP affects drafts. ADP, it affects even our like we we make these rankings.
19:00It affects the psychology of every player in your draft when you see the board and they feel like they're passing on
19:07somebody perceived to be better because the system tells them that.
19:11Yes. And and so then once you are doing mock drafts with your platform ADP in there so that you can get
19:18an idea, you you the way that you do that.
19:21We say this all the time, right? Stay water, not stone, like be willing to pivot.
19:27That does not mean have no plan. Don't just know players and have no idea where you're going when when this happens.
19:34You know, genuinely a draft is if this, then that.
19:38I go into every league of record draft knowing if this happens, then I will do that.
19:43You know, look at if you don't know where you're drafting from, you should be draft.
19:49You should be doing mock drafts from the second pick, the seventh pick and the 12th pick, because at that point you
19:56get to know who is available around the the two, three turn or the three, four turn.
20:02Or if I'm in the middle of the draft, you get to know what player types are there.
20:08And your first four rounds of your draft should really maybe even the first three rounds should really dictate where you go.
20:15And it's different for everybody, because what you think of certain players, you know, you might be out on Tyler Warren, Colson Loveland.
20:23You might be totally in on them. And that that makes a big difference.
20:28If you know, a perfect example here of knowing what your game plan is, is if you do mock drafts, first of
20:35all, you should not be just every time you do a mock draft, it's like, I'm going to grab the I'm just drafting the players.
20:43I like the most every time. And then you end up with the same type of team over and over.
20:50You need to explore other options. And I have found personally that when I choose to draft Brock Bowers or Trey McBride,
20:58if I pull the trigger on them, which I'm happy to do, I hate my team.
21:03If my first round pick was a wide receiver, because then in the third round, I'm drafting my first running back.
21:10It gets kind of like I just don't love where it goes personally.
21:14So if in the first round, I I just learned from mocking like, oh, if I ended up with a really good
21:22stud running back, then I can grab Brock in the second or McBride and then license to Brock, license to Brock.
21:29And so you can't get that experience without trying like take an early quarterback punt quarterback.
21:34Just explore. And I'm telling you, your drafts will be a hundred times better if you spend and you can do this in one day.
21:43You just do four or five mocks from the spot where you are.
21:47Or if you don't know, do beginning, middle and end mocks and just have a plan saying, if if I start this
21:54way, the end is good or the end is bad and you'll have far more success in fantasy football.
22:01Yeah. And, you know, less likely to have those panic picks in the middle of a draft.
22:07I'd say as well. All right, Mike. Number eight.
22:10All right. These tips and tricks, you know, sometimes we like to get, you know, in the weeds like Andy's digging through
22:17a bunch of data, a bunch of numbers and analytics and things.
22:21My tip is real easy because this is just this is a reminder.
22:25We're calling this tip. Mark my words. And it's literally that.
22:29Mark your players like at the bottom of the draft in the bottom of the ADP.
22:34And I say this because you're like, oh, of course I do.
22:38It's so obvious. It's real easy to forget, man.
22:41Like do it right now. You know, we've had several times in our league of record drafts where you're going through the draft.
22:49We're in like round eight or round nine. And then a name gets called out and I go, oh, because I literally forgot to mark that player.
22:58Like it was just I'm telling myself in my head over and over.
23:03I'm going to do this so I don't forget this player.
23:06I never get to marking that guy. So do it right now.
23:10Like players who are lower in ADP that you're interested in, you know, like Stefan Diggs.
23:16He's going to be way down in ADP because he just he's not going to get enough time to climb up the actual board.
23:24But people are going to know Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen.
23:27Exactly. These these types of players that, you know, you do want to get value on that player.
23:33But everyone else does as well. And just they can get lost in the shuffle.
23:38They really. So we can. And there's there's different ways you can mock like mark them.
23:44If you've got the UDK we have, you can you can literally highlight them.
23:48If you're printing a cheat sheet, circle them, go to the bottom and circle them.
23:53You have to do that. Otherwise, you forget to tank Bigsby is out there.
23:58I wanted to leave the draft with him. And exactly.
24:02And then like right tank Dell. I'm seeing a 16th rounder.
24:05You're not going to see him. He's not going to naturally see him.
24:10He's not. Yes. You won't just catch because you won't scroll down far enough to see him.
24:15No, because you're in the middle of it. And other other teams, other fantasy managers are going to be targeting those players as well.
24:23And you're going to hear their name or see a pop across the screen.
24:28And you're going to go, gosh, darn it. I would also say to mark that guy right before your draft.
24:35The preceding three or four days news can break.
24:38Sure. And that those guys are not going to have enough time to move up in ADP.
24:44Like if if this Higgins news happens one or two days before the draft, like you said, tank Dell, or maybe it's
24:51Hutchinson, or maybe you want to raise another player up or Dalton Schultz.
24:55You know what I mean? Like just things to pay attention to.
24:59It's just being prepared. It's very simple. But we're all humans and we all do dumb things all the time.
25:06So I'm just, hey, hey, just do it right now.
25:09Just start marking the players off. Especially if you got the UDK, that will really help to mark them.
25:16But just do it right now, man. Yeah. I mean, I do the printout, you know, but in the UDK, you can
25:23go mark out, you know, four different types of players so that they're highlighted.
25:28Yeah. I mean, if you don't have it, then just get a piece of paper and write down the name.
25:35Just write like the names of those guys super low in ADP that you don't want to forget.
25:41Yeah. And it'll make you feel like your draft went much better if you steal three or four of those guys at the end.
25:49So moving on. Number seven. All right. I'll call this panic-free tight end.
25:53And this is something that's been emerging a little bit over the last month, I think, with some different names.
26:00But, you know, we've talked a lot in the offseason during our top ten rankings episode for the tight ends, how badly
26:07we want one of those elite guys. Jason just talked about how if he drafts a running back, he feels a little
26:15bit of a license to draft Brock or McBride.
26:18But I'll throw Loveland, Warren into that group. But if you don't get them, maybe you have Kraft, maybe you have Kittle.
26:25If you don't get the big-time tight end, I want to highlight what you should be looking for at the tight end position.
26:33Either late in the draft or more so on the waiver wire throughout the year, things that we need to pay attention
26:40to to actually get viable tight ends later in the draft on the waiver wire that produce.
26:46So we looked at the last seven years of data, and here are four things that we pay attention to.
26:53The big one, target share. This is an easy one for us to understand.
26:57It's a go-to on the show all the time.
27:00But targets for – I mean, I remember doing this ten years ago, sorting by – sorting the waiver wire tight ends
27:08by targets when I'm looking for a streaming tight end.
27:11Just who's getting the ball. Targets have the highest correlation year-to-year for fantasy.
27:15It just acknowledges how involved the player is in the offense.
27:19What we're looking for, 17-plus percent target share, closer to 20%.
27:23Receiving yards per game, again, another easy one to look at.
27:27You need 45-plus receiving yards a game to be a top ten tight end.
27:31If you want to be top six, you've got to be up over 54, maybe.
27:3655! You look at route share. When they're on the field for a pass play, are they blocking?
27:42Are they running a route? There are lots of different types of tight ends.
27:47So are they actually running routes? What's the percentage of routes they run on their snaps?
27:52And then air yard share is something you can look at just to show downfield potential.
27:58There are certain tight ends that are just going to be close to the line of scrimmage.
28:04Not a lot of them are going to go way down the field.
28:08Air yards measure the distance a football travels through the air from the line of scrimmage to the target.
28:14That's the definition of it. And so we want downfield threats, not necessarily, Kyle would say, like Austin Hoopers.
28:21Right? So you want something above 15% in that metric.
28:24And so some late round tight ends to highlight this year that meet that that aren't the top guys.
28:30Kyle Pitts, who I really like. I do. I do.
28:34I really like it. But his target share. What did he say?
28:38His target share is 21%. Route percentage is 86%.
28:41Air yard share, 21%. He checks all those boxes.
28:44Sam Laporta. Target share, 18%. Same thing. I mean, he checks all the boxes.
28:49Dallas Goddard. And then the one that we haven't said a lot, maybe because he's always infinitely boring in our minds, but
28:56Hunter Henry, who just signed another extension. Target percentage, 17% last year.
29:00Route percentage, 72%. 15% air yard share. Just kind of a tried and true guy.
29:05There are lots of guys at the end. I mean, I think Isaiah likely is going to be in that category this year.
29:13But predicting touchdowns is really tough. But looking at target share, looking at air yards, that's your best chance at not panicking
29:20at tight end, not feeling forced to submarine your draft.
29:24If Jason's in the first round and he takes a wide receiver because that's the best player available to him and he
29:31doesn't go for one of those big names, there are some things that you need to pay attention to at the tight end position.
29:39So I just wanted to highlight some of those.
29:42Yeah, I mean, this is why, personally, I hate middle round tight ends.
29:46I just think you're wasting opportunities to get quality running backs and wide receivers because at the end of the draft, when
29:54the draft is over and every team has drafted every player imaginable, I can look on the waiver wire and see five
30:01tight ends that I'm like, those are just as good as some of these.
30:06Like, maybe they're a point worse or their opportunity is a little less good, but it's like not that big of a gap.
30:14You don't need to freak out about tight ends in the middle of your draft.
30:19I like that tip. All right. We are moving on.
30:22What are we on? Six? Is that right? Six.
30:25Yep. Cool. Because the seven's on the board. Yeah.
30:28That's good. Number six. We are moving on. We are moving on from the dusties.
30:33You can't. What does that mean? That means that the dusty picks at the end of the drafts.
30:39I see. Move on from them. Do not just hold them because of promise of the future.
30:45What if they're super good? Well, then they're not dusty.
30:48Then they're not dusty and you don't need to move on from them.
30:53But I want to make it. I think the best way to realize this is not making a move is in and of itself a move.
31:01That is your transaction. Every action has an equal opposite reaction.
31:05You are choosing to keep that player. That is an active movement.
31:09Just to clarify for listeners, you're talking about when you take those shots at guys very, very late in the draft, you're
31:17saying quickly move on from those players when they don't show you something.
31:21Don't stay on the promise that you will see something.
31:24Exactly right. Right. And there is so much data behind this to just say that, you know, we're playing an odds probability
31:32game and the odds are that those guys who don't do something good in week one aren't going to do something good
31:39in the first month of the season. It doesn't mean that they won't be good the second half of the season, but
31:46you can pick them up off of waivers later.
31:49Holding on to them for the six weeks it might take before they finally show up, that's not a good transaction for your team.
31:58I talked about this on a former Tips and Tricks episode of Take Dumps Now, Not Later, with regards to week one and week two.
32:06Matt agrees. Yeah, Matt takes dumps now and later.
32:09He's dumps like a truck, you know? Here's the thing.
32:12Those week one and week two waiver wire pickups, they are statistically...
32:16Yeah, there it is. Oh. Guys like a... Shout out Leonard Fournette.
32:20They're just statistically so much more valuable, not only because you get more weeks, but just because they perform better.
32:27The guys who show up in week one tend to do better.
32:31Here's a perfect example from last year. Rounds 11 through 15.
32:35Okay? No kickers or defense, so that's 60 picks other than, you know, taking out kickers and defense.
32:41There were four players of all of them that made an impact in the first month of the season.
32:47It's just like... How many? Four. Four of those rounds.
32:51Oh, gosh. 11 through 15. Yeah, it's just... And two are quarterbacks.
32:55Yeah. It's like it makes sense of... They touch the ball every game.
32:59You're going to know. Be willing to move on quick.
33:02Just don't hold on. Like, draft them. You got to draft someone in the 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th round.
33:09That's a rule. You have to. But if they don't hit in week one, be fine moving on.
33:15Now, the only exception to that, I would say, is kind of going with Andy's tip of depth.
33:21Those insurance running backs. You know, you're... Blake Horne's going to be rostered everywhere.
33:26Yeah, you're not expecting to see something from them.
33:29Yeah, you're not expecting to see something. That one you're holding on to so that you don't have to bid 100% of
33:36your fab when and if they have the chance to become a superstar.
33:41Outside of that, and I would say especially lower NFL drafted wide receivers, those guys, Cyrus Allen, you talked about him as a sleeper.
33:49If he's not on the field week one in like, you know, getting 75 plus percent of snaps, punt him off a bridge.
33:57Back through this thing. Okay. All right. It's Mike's turn.
34:00Number five. Speaking of quarterbacks, the elite quarterback prices are cheaper than ever.
34:04And you need to understand what's going on with the market because fantasy football, especially in the draft season, everything is the market.
34:12The, you know, the early years of this show, we were completely late round quarterback.
34:17That was the theory, the game theory that we subscribed to, to tremendous success.
34:22It, because of, I mean, a lot of it was just fantasy football players weren't quite fully educated on the value of
34:29that you could extract from the end of, of mobile quarterbacks.
34:33I was going to say it was a little bit of the emergence of the mobile power.
34:39Yeah. And in like 10 years ago, you know, everyone, well, I got to get Tom Brady.
34:44He's the best quarterback in the league. He's going to be the best fantasy football quarterback, of course.
34:50And it was, well, actually, if you, your opportunity cost of, of giving up that, that first often back then and, or
34:58a high second round pick is you're missing out on high probability running backs and wide receivers.
35:03The market is kind of flipped that this year.
35:06Not kind of like it has severely. Uh, right now.
35:10So Josh Allen is, he's the certified QB one.
35:13I think he should be right now. He is going five picks later.
35:17So that's not a, that's not a ton, but he was about the middle of the second last year.
35:24Yeah. Compared to last year and this year, he's going into about the end of the second.
35:29And here's where stuff gets wild. The QB two in ADP right now is Lamar Jackson compared to 2025 QB two.
35:36It's a full round and a half later. So your opportunity cost is not a second round pick for the QB two.
35:44It's, it's an early fourth rounder. In fact, this year you have, um, the guys who I think can be up, you
35:51know, the most likely to be the elite game changing, uh, quarterbacks.
35:55The end of that tier is Jane Daniels and Jalen Hurts who are going right now in the sixth round, the QB
36:03five and QB six ADP wise are going in the sixth.
36:06So, you know, I still prefer to go into my draft with the idea of, okay, I'm not going to burn an
36:14early pick, um, on, on a quarterback and really hope that it's the difference maker when I need to be building up my depth.
36:22Like Andy was pointing out this year though, there's a lot of guys who are presenting value at the, at the position,
36:29Joe Burrow, uh, a player I love this year.
36:32I love the bangles. I think that Burrow can push to be the QB one this year.
36:38He's going in the fifth. And then I said, Daniels and Hurts are going in the sixth.
36:44So it's while you, you can go into, if you're a late round quarterback drafter, you can go in with that strategy
36:51of, you know, I'm, I'm still going to wait, I'm going to get value.
36:56And I'm not saying there's fun guys who are going late.
36:59Of course, someone will emerge from that crop because they do every single year.
37:04But when you're building your team, the highest probability is these early quarterbacks, but they're not early round quarterbacks anymore.
37:11They're now mid round. It changes the acclaim. So it's all about the market.
37:16It's all about the opportunity costs. So just be cognizant of the fact that you're like, I'm, I'm not looking for a quarterback in the fourth round.
37:25I normally get them later. Just, just peek, peek at that quarterback tab and you might be like, holy crap.
37:31Lamar Jackson is still there at the turn of the fourth round.
37:35What I sometimes just take the value. What I've seen a lot in our mock drafts in my experience this year is
37:43that Josh will go, Alan will go, and then people will kind of wait.
37:47And then when the next shoe drops on quarterbacks, they all go real quick because it, like Lamar, Burrow, May, Daniels, Hertz,
37:55those guys, you can see the, like the game of chicken happening a little bit, which, you know, again, you, you, whether
38:02you want to get in on that or not, the value is so much different is what Mike's saying.
38:09Yeah. And, and look, this is ADP. You got to know your league.
38:13Perhaps you're in a league where quarterbacks just, they fly off early.
38:17Then you, then you just chill out because there's, like we said, there are guys who are going later that are, that are fun.
38:25And they, you can see what the ceiling case is.
38:28You can easily make the ceiling case for a lot of these later round guys.
38:34So just, I guess it really, you know, it's just an evolution of the stay water.
38:39Don't have a rock solid firm plan that you will, that's rigid and you can't deviate from it.
38:45And don't feel guilty at this point. Correct. Taking the quarterback.
38:49Like I, we've been in a lot of mocks.
38:52We had so many years of late round quarterback.
38:55We get into a mock. I'm like, I like this guy at this spot, but I almost feel guilty taking a quarterback.
39:02You feel like, oh, that's, that's not the, this isn't the way.
39:06Yeah. So, all right, we'll take a break and continue the countdown.
39:10All right. Our top 10 tips and tricks continue.
39:13Number four. All right. This one I'm calling the bad old days.
39:17The bad old days. This one was B-A-T-T-L-E. You going to battle?
39:21No. Bad. Bad. Space. Old. Old. Days. Space. It was O-L-apostrophe.
39:25Like, cause, cause there's a phrase people say the good old days.
39:29Right. Yeah. So this one's like the, these are the battle days.
39:33These are the battle days. The battle days. I hate you guys.
39:37All right. This was my, this is my favorite one because it was a journey to discover these numbers on my own.
39:44And like, I was very curious. So I took a look at the last 10 years at the 10 oldest players drafted each year in fantasy.
39:53Okay. So that's a lot of, a lot of players.
39:57And I wanted to look which ones were what I'd consider a win that would be exceeding their ADP, a loss much
40:04worse than their ADP or a push kind of met their ADP.
40:08So 10 years worth of data, the 10 oldest players each year.
40:12Here's the, here's the numbers. 30 wins, 50 losses, 20 pushes.
40:16So a true hit like winning on that pick has a 30% hit rate.
40:20But I was like, let's look at it by position.
40:24Cause maybe age has a, a correlation more with a position.
40:27And it did the worst bet you can make.
40:31And it's ironic timing with what, with the Evans news this morning is on older fantasy wide receivers.
40:37In that 10 year span, they went seven, 19 and eight.
40:40So that's seven wins above ADP. So seven, a 21% of the time above ADP, 19 losses below ADP and eight pushes.
40:48So the receiving age cliff seems to be very steep.
40:51Like when it goes, it goes. We've been there with the Julios and AJ greens.
40:56We've been there with, you know. So who is that this year?
41:00That's Devante Adams. That's Mike Evans. I'll give you them all.
41:04I'll give you all those. So old tight ends in that span did the best, but you kind of, yeah, that's Kelsey.
41:11You kind of know why. That's just Travis Kelsey.
41:14That's not fair. I mean, he wasn't old. He wasn't in the sample for, uh, you know, 10 year ago sample, but they were six, two and one.
41:24But if you weren't Kelsey, if you weren't a hall of famer, they were horrific.
41:29So if you were a non elite, you were Oh and five, you never outkicked your ADP.
41:34Also, one of the things I think that was interesting looking at it is that over the years we've had hall of
41:42famers that were older, that performed super well. And it kind of made us think that old guys perform better than they do.
41:50If you look at Brady breeze rivers, big Ben fits Gore, like those were these older elder statesmen that always performed.
41:57But that's what scares me about like Kelsey. No, no, no.
42:00Like two years from now, Dak. Dak. Cause I love Dak.
42:04I love him forever. But it's like, we, we look at these guys who are playing at 40 Brady and, and, and
42:11Stafford and go, well, Dak's going to frigging crush when he's only 37.
42:16But it's like, is he, is he that level?
42:19Is he a hall of fame level quarterback? Cause they, cause most people don't.
42:23Well, look, I'm going to try to tell you what to pay attention to, to try to figure out who will perform if you're an older player.
42:33One thing to know, half of the losses were availability, not decline.
42:37So in other words, injuries were prominent for older players.
42:40Hard to come back from. Yeah. I can, I can attest.
42:44One thing you can pay attention to, and we've seen it with some of the older guys recently or one of them,
42:51especially the encore effect is actually real. If a player was old and already performed old, they're more likely to do it again.
42:59So Derek Henry, Travis Kelsey, those guys, if you did it once, if you broke the mold, if you outkick the 30%,
43:06you're more likely to do it again. That's something to pay attention to.
43:11If you don't want to take Derek Henry off the board, which I won't.
43:15Yes, exactly. So I will give you, here are the oldest players.
43:19I'll give you the oldest players being drafted this year.
43:23But the TLDR is basically that over the last decade, drafting one of the 10 oldest players in the first nine rounds lost you money half the time.
43:32So it's just something to keep in mind. And profitability doing well with the pick.
43:37Old quarterbacks did well. Travis Kelsey did well. But this year, it's Matthew Stafford.
43:42He's 38 years old. It's Travis Kelsey, 37, about to be.
43:45It's Devontae Adams and Mike Evans. Travis Kelsey, 37.
43:4936.9. I'm just saying that the fact that he is still out there is wild.
43:54So like Matthew Stafford is by, so these are drafting the first 12 rounds this year.
43:59Stafford, Kelsey, Adams, Evans. Kittle. Yeah. We kind of, we're like excited about him, but we forget there's an age component on top of the injury.
44:08So availability for Kittle is going to be a question.
44:11Stephon Diggs. Okay. Derek Henry. And Aaron Jones. So to Jason's point yesterday, when his sleeper was Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones at running back.
44:19That's a tough one because I would not say the encore effect is in place for Aaron Jones.
44:25No, he hasn't been special. Henry it is. At an old age.
44:29Henry it is. Stafford it is. I wouldn't have said that Kittle probably fit.
44:34Kittle's just breaking into the older group. So that was one where we're going to see.
44:39But Evans and Adams, I think are the biggest decisions for fantasy players.
44:44There was a part of this off season pre-substation, Jason, where I feel like your Evans has gone.
44:50Yes. I was so high. Down. When he signed with San Francisco, I was like, holy crap.
44:55Yeah. I love this. He's perfect for their system.
44:58Perfect for their quarterback. I loved everything about it.
45:01And then it's just like, man, he's so old and broken.
45:05And he's playing next to a substation. Yeah. Oh.
45:08The graphic with no sound? That's the second time we've gotten the graphic.
45:13But Jason, do it again. What is the sound that a substation makes?
45:17Thanks. Thank you. That's disappointing. I thought Terry McLaurin might crack this list.
45:21That's why I was really curious if he was.
45:24So he's not one of the 10 oldest. He's 30.9.
45:28He'll turn 31. He's not one of the. He doesn't technically fit the age.
45:32He's a little scared. Doesn't mean he's fine. It just means he doesn't fit the stats.
45:38So there you go. Do with that what you will.
45:41We're moving on. Number three. The hangman is back.
45:44We are revisiting the dead zone. This is the dead zone for running back.
45:49We just got a question on that. Yeah. And I knew this was coming.
45:54If you've been playing fantasy football long enough, you know about the running back dead zone for years.
46:00It was like the rounds four through eight. They were they were, you know, not great hit rates to draft running this
46:07because usually what happens in those rounds is people who they've got a lot of red flags.
46:13They just get pushed up. It's the desperation. Yeah, it's the oh, no.
46:17I'd have to get a running back here. And so you burn a pick on a running back who is only there
46:25because the because supply is running out. You're like, well, well, he's a starter.
46:29So I got to take him in the fourth.
46:32And you're like, you're missing out on on high level wide receivers or tight end.
46:37Yeah, you were. And then the last couple of years came and it didn't really work out that way.
46:44Those rounds weren't just a dead zone and weren't terrible.
46:47But I think we're back this year looking at ADP.
46:50I think we are back. See, what's what's happened now is you've got a lot of running backs being drafted.
46:57I mean, more than half of the first two rounds are running backs.
47:01The studs are being drafted very high. But what is happening is that is pushing up the lesser good backs into a
47:09range that they haven't been the last couple of years.
47:12I'll give you a couple examples here. The running back 24 in 2024 was in the seventh round.
47:18The running back 24 right now is a mid fifth round pick.
47:22They are significantly higher. An eighth round pick was the running back 36 in 2024.
47:27So that's like a fringe flex play. Eighth round.
47:30That's OK. Or I'm sorry, he was 10th, 10th rounder.
47:34And now he's up in the eighth round this year.
47:37Those those players being pushed up really means I mean, part of that part of this is the correlation to your quarterbacks going a little bit later.
47:46Running backs are being drafted. Yeah. Mediocre middling running backs are being drafted higher than they should go.
47:52And we have a we have a tool on the website, the value scout tool.
47:57It's in the UDK. It's a really cool thing we came out with last year where it takes our projections, looks at
48:05basically what the true value would be according to like historical precedent for what you would expect them to be drafted at ADP wise.
48:13And then it compares to where their ADP currently is.
48:16And so there's a handful of guys right now that if you look at the value scout tool, you just see they're being significantly overdrafted.
48:25What the expectation of their ADP should have been.
48:28Travis H. And Jr. Right now is being picked 10 spots ahead of ADP.
48:32Now, obviously, maybe this changes with Alvin Kamara being out for a month.
48:37But David Montgomery right now, you know, we've got him priced basically 15 picks behind where he's being drafted in ADP.
48:44Jalen Warren looks like an eighth rounder according to our consensus projections, but he's being pulled up to the sixth round on sleeper.
48:51And Tony Pollard, another one where he's going, you know, 11 spots ahead of where we project his ADP should be.
48:58You can you could check out more of these players in the value scout tool.
49:04But this is basically it's not to say don't hear what I'm not saying.
49:08It's not to say that there won't be any good pick in the rounds four through eight for running back.
49:15But what it what matters that you need to know is that when you are drafting the running back 24 through 36,
49:22you are paying a lot more right now than you have in recent years.
49:27And if you are, it mathematically means that other players at other positions are being pushed down and they are a better value than in years past.
49:36So you just got to play the market. The pendulum swings back and forth.
49:41The health of running backs the last two years has just pushed running backs way too high in those middle.
49:48Do you want to know something cool? Yeah, I do.
49:51Heck yeah. If you take two awesome running backs at the top of your draft, you don't have to worry about that.
49:58You don't have to worry about no RB strategy.
50:01Just do just draft great running. I pretty much require two of my first four rounds to be to be running backs
50:09and potentially three because I love to just, you know, high T shotgun those wide receivers for a while afterwards.
50:15Yeah. Number two. We're calling this one hot or not.
50:19Number two. I think of Matt. I remember that.
50:22Oh, hot. Number two is not a place you want to be.
50:26Oh, but let's not focus on that. This is a PG show.
50:30Remember? So, rim. What did he say? So, uh, we actually, we just fielded a question about this where people were saying,
50:37you know, what is the kind of the emphasis on early season schedule?
50:42Uh, and cause we're talking about hot starts and it does factor in the first month of the season.
50:48It carries a lot of weight for fantasy for, for emotion.
50:52And, and when also a part of that is like, because when you are, when you go, oh, and two or Owen
50:59three, it's really difficult to not panic because you feel like you feel under the knife.
51:05You're like, I got to make, I got to make moves here.
51:09And you can end up making trades that are, are just, they're bad decisions.
51:13You get on tilt. Yes. You tilt. And we don't want to do that.
51:18So we want to have, you know, hotter starts.
51:21So for a strength of schedule, a different way to look at that.
51:25Last year we looked at, we took the data.
51:28We had eight teams that were projected as underdogs.
51:31This is overall the NFL team. They were projected as underdogs in three, at least three of their first four games before the season even started.
51:40Of those eight teams, only one of them won more than a single game.
51:45And it was the Jacksonville Jaguars. And that was like, oh, this is the team that people were pretty wrong about.
51:52Like the Liam Cohen effect on, on the Jags really took them to a different place over those first four games.
51:59They won three. They had a positive point differential.
52:02That was a great year. Six of those eight though, bottom 10 in points per, per game scoring.
52:08Six of the eight scored less than one, uh, rushing touchdown per game.
52:12So it's like, look, the sports books, they're, they're not trying to lose.
52:17They're trying to put lines where they think they can win it.
52:21But these people know what they're talking about. It was Jacksonville, Carolina, the Titans, Cleveland, the Jets, Raiders, Giants, and Saints who they were, it wasn't good.
52:30And so I bring that up for, you know, maybe it's going to help you make, uh, uh, some tiebreaker decisions.
52:37And again, the running backs from those teams, guess who ended up being a value?
52:42Travis H and junior. Cause he's on a winning football team.
52:46It was like, gente. There was a great start.
52:49There was a great game in there, but overall for that pick that you made, it was a big bummer.
52:55Chuba, a couple good games. And then it was, then it was rough.
53:00Brees hall. It was not a strong start. Camara, the same.
53:04If you're talking, looking at those four games and Tony Pollard is, these were not truly like these weren't running backs that
53:11you could plug and play and feel good about.
53:14So let's look at 2026. Who are the teams projected to that they're underdogs in at least three of their first four games?
53:22Okay. Get the numbers for this year. It's tough.
53:25Cause it's, it's Arizona. Yeah. Cleveland. Yeah. Cleveland. The Colts.
53:28Yeah. That's, that's interesting because Johnny Taylor splits and wins and losses are pretty, pretty wide.
53:33See if you can spot what's going on. Keenan didn't throw their, uh, they didn't become favorites instantly.
53:40See if you can see what's going on with you.
53:43Okay. Colts. Mm-hmm. Raiders. Yeah. Dolphins. Yeah. Dogs. They are dogs in at least three of their first four games.
53:50And those are first and second round running backs.
53:53Janty, May Chan, Taylor. Jets. Brees. Surprisingly, the Broncos are in there too.
53:57Cause their, their opening schedule is tough, but it's, it's, this is not to say that all of those guys, all those
54:04running backs are going to be bad or bust picks.
54:08It's just. Uphill battle. It is. It is definitely an uphill battle for guys who are going very early, uh, in, in your fantasy football draft.
54:16So, you know, it's when you're deciding maybe it's a, maybe it becomes a tiebreaker.
54:22Yeah. For you. Yeah. That's interesting. And kind of sad.
54:25Yeah. Because of the players we love this year.
54:28All right. We're there. Number one. All right. Our tip, uh, it's always been something a little bit like this every year.
54:35Number one is just wipe the slate clean. We all suffer the fantasy.
54:40Wipe it. It burns the bad memories and thoughts about Mike didn't have any bad memories last year.
54:46No, no. He wants to keep his slate dirty.
54:49But we, we are recommending to you, Mike, wipe that slate clean.
54:53Yeah. Let's remember nothing. Get back to, Hey, that's what I'm doing.
54:57But you gotta, you gotta move. I won last year.
55:00I will remind you that I won last year, but it were on to, I don't really remember that.
55:07I was, it's funny. I was, I wiped the slate clean.
55:10Yeah. I followed the rule. I was on, uh, uh, I did a guest spot for Tony reality show and we were
55:18talking about like bad beats and I brought up the, how I had Lamar Jackson week one.
55:23He takes me up by 1.8 points. They end up going into overtime and he fumbles and I lose.
55:30And it was like, this is a horrifically bad beat.
55:33It turns into one of the worst, not what it turns into the worst fantasy football season where I'm just getting bad beat.
55:41And he's like, well, did you ever go back to Lamar Jackson?
55:45I'm like, of course, of course I went back.
55:48Like you can't, when, when a player of, of that caliber is like Christian McCaffrey, there's, there are many people last year
55:55who are like, I will never ever draft Christian McCaffrey again because of what he did to me.
56:01The phrase, the phrase, the phrase that people probably used was like, well, I'm just willing to let them be great and
56:09I won't deal with the risk, but they might not think that anymore.
56:13They might think, I wish I had drafted him.
56:16And I'm not saying, sometimes a player burns you and like, then they burn you again.
56:22It's just, it's, it's a new year. It's a new you.
56:25Yes. Thank you, Jason. A brand new you. Yeah.
56:28If, if, if a player destroyed you with injury last year, just, just wipe the pain, man.
56:34I know it's tough, but you have to do it.
56:37Yeah. I feel like Jason's hat is so perfectly blending with these back wall graphics.
56:42It's like all the dudes, the ducers are just like nodding their heads.
56:47You don't even have a top of a head.
56:50Oh, I mean. Now, do you need to make a little PSA for people that the other day you had gotten a haircut?
56:58Oh, yeah. And people, a lot of people thought, welcome to the bald club.
57:02I got, I got, I'm not fully. We got bad news for you.
57:07We got bad news for you. Not bald. Not bald yet.
57:10Got bad news for you, Baldies. Look at these luscious.
57:14He's not one of you. Not yet. All right.
57:17His slate is not wiped clean up top. Am I right?
57:20Team bald, damn bad. Yeah. Sorry, Baldies losers. I mean.
57:24Oh, yes. Josh. I love the idea of you just turning horribly against.
57:28For sure. If you're balding, you just need to know, what a loser.
57:32Oh, my God. I mean, man, what are those, cul-de-sacs?
57:36Oh. I would never. Get real. Oh, my gosh.
57:39There you go. Hey, one final reminder here. The Megala.
57:42Megalable. It is available. Entries right now. Grab a draft spot.
57:46Come play with us. We'll be playing. 20,000 plus players.
57:49A chance to win the ultimate Foot Clan for life and a spot in the listener league.
57:55Let's set the new record. Every year we've had a new record.
57:59Let's do it again, Foot Clan. You are undefeated.
58:02Megalable.com. Yeah, that'll be so awesome. And then tomorrow we're going to get into bust and value picks.
58:08And on Friday, it's mock draft mayhem. So you do not want to miss an episode.
58:13It is go time. If you're drafting tonight, tomorrow soon, good luck.
58:18Hopefully some of these tips and tricks helped you out.
58:21We will be back tomorrow with another episode. Take care.
58:24Goodbye. Bye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
58:29Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.
