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AFC West Breakdown + Mock Draft Promises - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/14

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 14, 2026
Published
Tue, July 14, 2026
27
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Bo NixAshton JeantyDaniel JonesJaylen WaddleJonathan TaylorBijan RobinsonBrock BowersCourtland SuttonDrake LondonFernando MendozaGeno SmithJ.K. DobbinsJalen NailorKirk Cousins
Player analysis

Player insights

27

Ashton Jeanty

PositiveProjection0:49

Jeanty is described as a player the analysts are 'already in love with' for the year, with the potential to get off to a hot start given Kirk Cousins' preference for throwing to running backs.

Insight page
NegativeBust0:55

Jeanty is considered a 'sketchy pick at ADP' due to the Raiders' poor win projection (5.5 games) and potential backup competition, limiting his rushing upside despite elite talent.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection0:57

Robinson benefited from Kirk Cousins' arrival with the Falcons, seeing a 106-target pace during the final games, demonstrating Cousins' support for running backs.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeBust0:14

There is tremendous risk for Bo Nix if he falls on his face with elite weapons, best offensive line, and great defense—Sean Payton is not patient and will have no excuses if Nix struggles.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout0:14

Bo Nix has significant upside if he can throw 4-5 more touchdowns than last year and reduce turnovers, which would make him an elite fantasy option with all the advantages set up for him.

Insight page
PositiveProjection0:17

Bo Nix was QB6 in counting stats last year despite disastrous performances and is now being drafted as QB15, representing significant undervaluation given the Broncos' elite weapons and offensive line additions.

Insight page

Brock Bowers

PositiveProjection0:53

Bowers is the number one target for the Raiders 'by the widest margin ever' and will have elite production despite potential quarterback changes, making him a must-draft tight end.

Insight page

Courtland Sutton

NegativeBust0:20

Cortland Sutton is a solid but unspectacular receiver who can't win you a fantasy championship; he's being drafted around WR35 in the seventh round despite being WR13 two years in a row.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

PositiveInjury0:05

Daniel Jones is cleared to do everything ahead of training camp, including standing, sitting, running, jumping, and all physical activities.

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PositiveDepth Chart0:53

Jones is expected to start the entire year for the Colts barring injury, providing quarterback stability for pass-catchers unlike other teams with QB change variables.

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Drake London

PositiveProjection0:57

London was injured for most of Kirk Cousins' games with the Falcons last year, limiting the sample size of how Cousins supports pass-catchers.

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Fernando Mendoza

NegativeDepth Chart0:48

Mendoza has not signed his contract and is not in the Raiders building for OTAs, which is under-publicized but relevant for his development and confidence from the head coach.

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Geno Smith

NegativeProjection0:46

Smith is sarcastically referred to as 'the league's best quarterback' in comparison to last year's Jets quarterback, highlighting the Raiders' poor offensive performance despite having a starting QB.

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J.K. Dobbins

PositiveValue0:19

JK Dobbins is one of the analyst's favorite picks, available in the middle of the seventh round, with a significant ADP discrepancy compared to backup RJ Harvey despite being the clear starter.

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Jalen Nailor

NegativeRole0:54

Naylor is considered a tier below consideration for the Raiders, with analysts stating they won't worry about him given the team's consolidation of talent around Bowers and Jeanty.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveRole0:18

Waddle's addition to Denver is huge because Cortland Sutton was the top option at only 1.85 yards per route run, showing the offense desperately needed an elite yards-after-catch receiver.

Insight page
PositiveValue0:19

Jalen Waddle is being drafted in the back of the fourth round as a non-top-20 WR but can easily finish top-15 given his elite yards-per-route-run (2.42) and fit with Bo Nix.

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Jonathan Taylor

NegativeProjection0:05

Jonathan Taylor already has red flags despite the Colts' stated desire to reduce his workload, as there are no viable backup options (DJ Giddens, Seth McGowan) to actually take carries away.

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NegativeProjection0:06

Jonathan Taylor has scary variables including volatility between dominant and poor performances, and he's much better in wins—a concern in a tough division where the Colts may not win as many games as expected.

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Kirk Cousins

NegativeProjection0:58

Cousins has lost his deep ball ability and is no longer the quarterback he was during his Vikings days, limiting deep shot opportunities for receivers.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveProjection0:57

Pitts was great when Kirk Cousins took over with the Falcons, showing how Cousins consolidates targets to tight ends and running backs rather than deep threats.

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Mike Washington Jr.

NegativeDepth Chart0:56

Washington Jr., a fourth-round pick described as a 'size speed freak,' may cut into Ashton Jeanty's workload given Clint Kubiak's history of using multiple backs.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeRole0:45

Rice is grouped with Worthy and Thornton as deep threats whose games will have moments, but analysts are hesitant to draft them due to reliability concerns.

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RJ Harvey

NegativeBust0:21

RJ Harvey's ADP has plummeted and he's now nearly impossible to draft given Jonah Coleman's presence and the fact that if Dobbins goes down, Coleman becomes the primary back, not Harvey.

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Travis Kelce

PositiveValue0:45

Kelce has a chance to be top five again and represents strong value when he slips to double-digit rounds, with analysts preferring him in the 10th-15th round over other tight end options.

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Trey McBride

PositiveProjection0:52

McBride's elite target totals with Jacoby Brissett may not translate with a potential quarterback change, as the Cardinals could turn to Carson Beck in the second half of the season.

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Xavier Worthy

PositiveRole0:44

Worthy is criticized for posting a route-running video showing poor footwork and technique, with analysts expressing concern about his reliability as a draft target despite being a deep threat.

Insight page
Full transcript

Episode Transcript

708
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0:42To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
0:47Oh, welcome in. Oh, it's good to be back with you.
0:50To July 14th, the Fantasy Footballers, Jason Moore is here.
0:54Yes, I am. Mike Wright. Present accounted for. Chill out.
0:57I'm Andy Holloway, and this is the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
1:00We've got the Deucers Alley back there loaded up with...
1:04All three of them. ...Deucers. Papa Josh is back there.
1:07Shining like the sun. Should realign that light. We got Al Borland and the Falcon as well.
1:13Apparently we're all in shades of blue-gray over here today.
1:16Are you? Let me take another look at that.
1:19It was not intended. Okay. You kind of blend in with the background.
1:23Just floating heads. We have another divisional breakdown show finishing up the AFC today.
1:28And this is a wild one. I think this is going to be very, very fun.
1:33We're talking AFC West. Still hard for me to look at that division and see that record for the Chiefs.
1:40It just feels... Oh, impossible. Impossible. So we get to talk about, among other topics, like a lot of fantasy football relevant players in this division.
1:48Tons of them. Tons of them with like unsettled projections, really.
1:52I mean, just situations where you're like, you know, guys like Rashee Rice and Amari in Hampton.
1:58There's gold in their hills, though. Yeah, there is.
2:01Oh, man. Yeah. And we get to talk about all that.
2:04And a lot of these teams like had crazy records when it came to one score games that we'll talk about.
2:11And yeah, there's... We're going to have some good debates.
2:15I know that for a fact. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now.
2:19You can download the mobile app. You can get the draft analyzer.
2:23You can go to ultimatedraftkit.com. It is the number one way to get yourself prepped up.
2:29We've been refining and perfecting it for years on years on years.
2:33And the newest feature, a mock draft tool. Yes, a proprietary fantasy footballer's mock draft tool where you can load in ADP
2:40from different platforms so that you can customize your mock drafts is coming probably this week.
2:45It is probably up right now when you're listening to it.
2:49For real? Yeah. Okay. So go update your app.
2:52Go update your app. I don't think that we have an approved version of the app that we can release.
2:58Just go update your app and find out. You have no idea.
3:02You don't know. Today's the day. It'll be there soon.
3:06It's been a while since Jason has done this to our company.
3:10That's true. Yeah. We've got the... Monday, July 13th.
3:13The show is always in the... The mock draft tool is available.
3:17But that's a back date. You could have just said today.
3:20Oh, is this... This coming out on Tuesday. It came out yesterday.
3:24Jason, stop it. That's right. I guarantee it's up today.
3:28Oh, no. The best part is our show gets broadcast in the lobby where the devs all work and they get to hear this.
3:36And the beads of sweat forming and dripping off their faces.
3:39I can hear the door. I think they all just walked out.
3:43Yeah. Get your phone. Update your... It's coming out next year.
3:47Update your ultimate draft kit and play around with the new mock draft tool.
3:52It is so cool. And it's going to get so much better.
3:56People have asked about supporting keepers and stuff like that.
3:59And that's not there at the jump. But we're going to be...
4:03This is all we're working on for the next little while.
4:06Yeah. The mock draft tool is so fundamental to the way you prepare.
4:11And we've always wanted one to create our own.
4:14And people have asked for that forever. And it's not a small undertaking.
4:18And our team has done an incredible job. And we're really excited about it.
4:23And you're going to love it. And yeah, that's all at ultimatedraftkit.com.
4:27So let's jump right into some news. Not a lot, but some interesting things to talk about.
4:32News and notes from around the league. Papa Josh, by the way, who is among...
4:37You know, he's one of our producers. But he also is the community manager for the entire Foot Clan.
4:44What is... And he's shaking his head because... Do you know what's coming in here, Josh?
4:49Oh, I know what's coming. Yeah, because he said, RIP my inbox asking where the mock draft tool is.
4:55He knows that he is going to be... Yeah, get him.
4:59He knows that support at fantasyfootballers.com is going to get just loaded up.
5:03Well, if there's an issue, that's when they will contact support at fantasyfootballers.com.
5:08That's just if there's an issue. So he just knows how loaded up that's going to be.
5:13What will be? Support at fantasyfootballers.com. Okay, all right, cool.
5:16Shouldn't have shook your head, Josh! We will pile on you.
5:20He does take phone calls at 4-8... No, I'm just kidding.
5:24Man, that would be so brutal. Oh, man. Give out the real one?
5:28The Athletics' James Boyd is reporting that Daniel Jones is cleared to do everything ahead of training camp.
5:34We're talking standing, sitting, running, jumping. Reading. Reading. Writing.
5:37Arithmetic. All of it. Colts running back coach DeAndre Smith said the team, quote, definitely needs to find ways to take some
5:44of that workload off of Jonathan Taylor. Was he saying this to Chris Ballard?
5:49Because it's like, dude, we got to find ways.
5:52And we're searching. Because DJ Giddens, Seth McGowan, like, I understand they definitely...
5:56Don't they have somebody else? Oh, no. Ulysses Bentley IV.
6:00Wait, Ulysses S. Bentley IV? Yes. I mean, you know, they do.
6:04That's a real person? That is a real person.
6:07This was an interesting quote. Oh, my gosh. That name is spectacular.
6:11I read the whole context, and, you know, they admit it's hard to take Jonathan Taylor off the field.
6:17They think he'll be better if they can manage his workload.
6:21This is real in the sense that they definitely want to give him less work than they have been giving him.
6:27Ulysses Bentley IV becomes something. But also, it will become push comes to shove impossible.
6:32It is as irrelevant as the 49ers wanting to take workload off of Christian McCaffrey.
6:37Exactly. So... You're not able to do it. It is, you know, obviously, when you see a report like that, it might
6:45scare you, and you have to make a decision with Jonathan Taylor.
6:49And I think there are... We talked about this division.
6:52There are scary things about Jonathan Taylor. Mm-hmm. One is the fact that he's been dominant, and then not, and then dominant again.
7:00Like, you do have variables with how often this team is leading games, whether the offense is moving.
7:06He's much better in wins, and that's a tough division.
7:09If they don't win as many games as expected, then it could be a down year for Jonathan Taylor.
7:15But when this news came out, I went to the ultimate draft kit, went to my team-by-team rankings.
7:21I wanted to take a look and see... Because I believe it.
7:25I believe that they do want to look at that workload, and I looked at what I had Jonathan Taylor down for,
7:33which was already less than he had last year, and I couldn't move it at all.
7:38I'm like, there's no... I just looked at the depth chart.
7:41I'm like, not gonna happen! Yeah, when it's DJ Giddens competing with Seth McGowan to be the backup, and they still don't know who it is.
7:50They're like, someone! Yeah, it... Someone show me something!
7:53I'm not putting a bunch into this, but Jonathan Taylor already has red flags.
7:58I think I mentioned last week... Who are the biggest free agent running backs?
8:02Like, Najee. Like, if Najee arrived in Indianapolis, would you care?
8:06Yeah, I think... What, off the Achilles? Yeah, I mean, they love that.
8:10Daniel Jones, you know... A little bit easier for a quarterback.
8:14I don't know who all's... I mean, you could maybe make a move for Kamara.
8:19Not a free agent, but he's been... I'm trying to think.
8:23Kareem Hunt, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb. Kareem Hunt... I don't really care that much.
8:27Kareem Hunt, just because he... He just scores touchdowns.
8:30Yeah. So, if you take away some goal line work, that's a problem.
8:35But there's no one... I don't think there's anyone hanging out who can destroy the depth chart.
8:40All right. Well, we want to kick this off right away with the AFC West breakdown.
8:45There's a lot to talk about. I want to make sure we don't miss anything.
8:50So, we'll take a quick early break and come back with the last AFC Divisional Breakdown.
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9:36All right, let's get into it. Let's get divisional.
9:39All right, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders. It is a fun division for fantasy and, man, questions to be answered.
9:46The Chiefs, before last year's 6-11 season, by the way, had gone 35-3 against the AFC West in the Mahomes era.
9:53That is insane. That record is insane. You basically had an L if you faced the Chiefs during his entire tenure before last year.
10:01Yeah, the NFL taking L's. Yeah, that's true. I mean, last year the Broncos 14-3, Chargers 11-6, Chiefs were 6-11.
10:076-11. And the Raiders were 3-14. It was fun.
10:10Come on, guys. It was a nice reprieve. Yes.
10:13From like, okay, a breath of fresh air. Go ahead.
10:17Get something different. That's great. Be good again. I don't care.
10:20Sure. We got to enjoy last year. What's crazy is when I think back of last year, the Chiefs season really went sour.
10:28Eventually it felt like they knew they were not going to make the playoffs.
10:33They kind of shut people down. Mahomes got injured.
10:36And they just kind of forgot the second half of the year.
10:40But really, I didn't remember until recently when I was preparing for this, it was like, Mahomes only missed the last two games.
10:47He played the whole season. Yeah, we'll talk extensively about what happened and what you think is going to happen.
10:54But we get to start respectfully with the division winner, the 14-3 Denver Broncos, 11-2 in one score games.
11:00Oh, boy. If you want to talk about the Chiefs again really quickly, last year the Chiefs were 12-0.
11:06Or two years ago, they were 12-0 in one score games.
11:10They went 1-9 last year. So it just shows you that is the most volatile of stats.
11:16Now, if you had to ask me what makes you great at one score games, I would say a defense the likes
11:23of the Denver Broncos and a head coach the likes of Sean Payton.
11:27Yes. However, a lot of what happened in Denver last year was, you know, there was a lot of makeup put on the face of the offense.
11:36Let's put it that way. They were not good looking.
11:40Because when you look at the metrics, they were in the middle, 15th in points per game.
11:45Fake. And you think that number's fake? Yeah, I think that number's fake.
11:50I mean, that's just like a number. No, I know, but I'm saying like...
11:54I mean, it's a statistical truth. I realize that.
11:57But they put up 44 points against the Dallas Cowboys.
12:01So it's like, oh, yeah, okay. So you're saying like on average, whatever.
12:05Yeah, I'm saying the average points per game. Their consistency rank would be bad.
12:10Yeah, it would be like D plus, C minus.
12:12Now, the big part that stands out to me, a couple of things on this offense, and I really, really want to
12:20talk about it, because there is a temptation for me to make Bo Nix my guy this year.
12:26He's one of the players that when I went into my projections, I really, really look at what's going on.
12:32I love Sean Payton. They're the only team who...
12:35I don't love... Oh, no. Clip it. No, hold on.
12:39Hold on. Clip it. The camera was on me, but my eyes went wide.
12:43We got to get that, because when he said that, like clip that he...
12:48Andy loves Sean Payton. You heard it here. I have made a horrible mistake.
12:53Oh, man. Fantastic. You have bad-mouthed this man for the last four years.
12:57I hate Sean Payton, the man, and I love Sean Payton, the fantasy producing head coach who I trust to make the right play call.
13:05Sure, but that's not how I'm going to publish it later.
13:09I wouldn't... Yeah. That's not what I heard. Falcon, fly high.
13:13So, let me... If I can possibly return to my point.
13:16Yeah, go on. The temptation with Bo Nix is that I love the team.
13:21I think they're going to be a successful team.
13:24I think they're going to threaten for the division, and they're the only team returning 100% of their carries and targets from 2025.
13:31So, they're bringing back this offense, and then you just add to the offense, right?
13:36You bring back everybody, and then you add Jalen Waddle, who is an elite, like, yards-after-catch guy.
13:42And this was an offense that struggled tremendously with getting the ball down the field.
13:47They had the lowest yards per attempt in the history of the National Football League for a 14-plus win team.
13:54So, this is what I'm saying, where there was a lot of makeup thrown on the offense.
13:59I don't think Sean Payton is satisfied. I do think that there is tremendous risk for Bo Nix.
14:05Like, if he falls on his face with all these weapons, right?
14:09There's not going to be an excuse when you have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
14:16Like, he was sacked half as much. Maybe the best.
14:19Yeah, I mean, he was sacked half as much as Justin Herbert.
14:23Half. Like, pressures. Half. Like, you've been given... Like, Sean Payton is not a patient man.
14:28It's one of the reasons I hate him. Did you hear that, Jay?
14:32I did not. But he is not going to have...
14:36You've got the best defense. You've got all these elite weapons.
14:39You've got a great offensive line. And if you cannot complete passes in this offense and get it done, I'm telling you,
14:47if he falls on his face and starts throwing picks all year long, you're going to have a question about Bo Nix.
14:54The good thing for him is everything is set up for him.
14:58And so, for me, he left a lot on the table last year and you're like, are you ready to come in
15:05here with all of those advantages and deliver? Because if you do, if you go in and throw four or five more
15:13touchdowns than you did last year and reduce your turnovers a little bit, you're going to be an elite fantasy option.
15:20I would agree with you that the rope seems like it's a done deal as like a future franchise star, but it really could go the other way.
15:29Now, obviously, that depends on him. If he comes out and proves it, he's good, great.
15:34The first six weeks of the Broncos season is they start on the road in Kansas City, then the Jacksonville Jaguars, then
15:41the Rams, then the Niners, then the Chargers, then the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
15:46That's reason enough not to make them a my guy.
15:50That is six unbelievably hard games. They're only favored in one, which is wild for a team that just won 14 games.
15:57They return everybody plus a couple extra pieces. They really didn't lose much.
16:01And to be favored in one of their first six games, it's tough sledding.
16:06And their defense is crazy. It's unbelievable. So I think they're, I guess my opinion of the Broncos offensively, when I went
16:13back and I watched Bo Nix film and I watched specifically, you know, you talk about the average depth of target being
16:21bad because, you know, he wasn't able to push the ball down the field.
16:25if you can sit in the pocket as long as he did.
16:29For sure. But he did not have the weapons.
16:32As much as I love my man, Troy Franklin, they needed Waddle.
16:36And when I was watching Bo Nix, what I left with was, dadgummit, they need a wide receiver like Waddle.
16:43So I do think Waddle could really unlock this offense, but it will be tough sledding for a, you know, if you
16:50want to draft players here, you're going to have some, some tight games that I think this team will rightfully rely on their defense to start the year.
16:59So Mike, the question to you is whether you believe Bo Nix will step up into what he should be for fantasy
17:07because despite all of our, the eye tests and the issues he had last year and disastrous performances on Thursday night football
17:14at home where he completed 100, had 150 yards and a touchdown against the hapless Raiders, he was still the quarterback six
17:21in counting stats at the end of the year.
17:24Well, he did throw the ball more than anyone in the league, which is so, so surprising.
17:30612 attempts. Well, the, you know, it's, you got to remember what happened with, which also, you know, Bo Nix is also coming off of, uh, Bo Nix.
17:39Of injury. You know, we do have that. Yeah.
17:42You have the, the Davis Webb, the OC is now calling plays like that's an official thing.
17:48When JK Dobbins got hurt, it was a huge problem for this offense.
17:52And they went like the, the past attempts that's because of, of JK Dobbins because they, you know, he gets hurt.
17:59You're hoping that RJ Harvey, a second round pick can step up and be the guy.
18:04He could not. RJ Harvey was fine, uh, for fantasy because he was scoring a bunch of touchdowns and he can get it done in the receiving game.
18:14But as of right now where he is in his career, he's nowhere close to Dobbins and they knew that and they
18:21completely, like they went to a very pass heavy, uh, offense.
18:25I'm with you, Jason of this team needed someone.
18:28And I think the addition of Jalen Waddle is, is huge.
18:31I think that Waddle still has it last year on a per route basis.
18:36Still, still elite. Um, you know, yards per route run at 2.42 Cortland Sutton who was out there running, I mean, more
18:43routes than almost anyone in the, in the league was at 1.85 yards per route run as your top option.
18:50That's not, that's not good enough. That's not good enough.
18:53So you go out and you get Waddle. I am very interested by the Denver Broncos because I think everyone is either priced appropriately or at a value.
19:03I've, I've talked all, all off season. JK Dobbins is one of my favorite picks.
19:08I don't, I don't get the discrepancy between Dobbins and, and RJ Harvey and ADP when you can get the starter in
19:15the middle of the seventh round around there and Waddle in the back of the fourth, not a top 20 wide receiver at the moment.
19:23He can easily finish top 15 the way that I see him and the way that he can match up with Bo Nix.
19:31and then the potential for Bo Nix himself to bounce back.
19:34Him going at QB 15 seems egregiously low for what he is able to do.
19:39And not that he's, he's not the, the cheat code mobile quarterback, but he'll give you, you know, he can give you
19:47300, he have 300, 400, but 30 rushing yards rookie year, 356 last year.
19:51I don't know. Yeah, I don't know from the beginning if we'll hurt him or not, but regardless, he was rookie year
19:59quarterback seven, last year quarterback six, adds Jalen Waddle and now he's being drafted as quarterback 15.
20:04So he's certainly a value. Waddle, that's just a matter of what do you believe in Waddle?
20:10He's appropriately priced. We're all fans of J.K. Dobbins.
20:13That seems like a very mispriced running back in the draft.
20:17Love that. The one guy that I can't get myself to draft ever and when I, when I, It's R.J.
20:23Harvey, isn't it? Well, yeah, but no, that wasn't who I was bringing up.
20:28No, Corlin Sutton. Corlin Sutton, you know, Waddle shows up and it's like, well, I would never.
20:33But Corlin Sutton was the wide receiver 13, two years in a row and he's on.
20:39He's the remandre of that team. Yes. Perfect comment.
20:42That just popped into my head. It was like, you don't know how to draft a guy that is solid but isn't the spectacular one.
20:50Yeah, he's not going to go out there. The thing is, is there's no chance he really wins you a fantasy championship.
20:57Pittman or Sutton? Okay, that's a great one. I think Sutton has more opportunities for touchdowns.
21:03Interesting. Corlin Sutton right now being drafted around the seventh round wide receiver 35.
21:07So I'm looking at trying to get a fresh view here of ADP.
21:12Dude, Harvey has plummeted. We've done work. Is that our fault?
21:15I mean, we're not the only ones who are breaking down Harvey.
21:19He played football last year. But like, an underdog right now, Harvey's 31.
21:24Is he going to get to a place now where we're like, hmm, It's almost impossible to make the case for like, please don't do that.
21:32Here's the problem. He had everything in front of him and now it's like, how do you possibly get the amount of
21:39work where he wasn't as good as we wanted him to be?
21:43With Jonah Coleman there, if Dobbins goes down again, which he does every year, Jonah Coleman is now present.
21:50I agree with that. And so all of a sudden, And I think Coleman becomes the thumper.
21:55Yeah. So the best ball case for RJ Harvey is a tough one now.
22:00Right. For what it's worth, after those initial six games, it is a juicy stretch for Denver.
22:06They get, they're favored in the next eight matchups.
22:09And we're talking seven and a half, eight and a half, nine and a half in some of them.
22:15So maybe that's the redemption period of the year if they have some hard-fought games in the first half.
22:21So, you know, we've talked about Waddle. We've talked about Bo Nix.
22:25We can talk about Dobbins and Coleman and RJ Harvey.
22:29I think we know that Peyton is willing to be kind of fluid at the position and give a lot of guys carries.
22:36When Bidet and McLaughlin were getting opportunities on this team, we kind of rolled our eyes in the back of our head,
22:43but he's willing to do whatever it takes to get, you know, production.
22:48So that could mean Coleman getting more snaps if he gets off to a hot start.
22:53It could mean... It could, but Dobbins was... Dobbins was great last year, especially when you factor in where you were drafting him.
23:01I mean, the first five weeks of last year, not under 11 fantasy points.
23:05Running back 19 was his worst finish. Has a couple duds after that, but he just...
23:11He's a strong player, and... Here's how they used him.
23:14The running back attempts of the running back rush share for Dobbins last year.
23:19Just his game log. 73%, 70%, 85%, 52, 80, 78, 78, 65, 83, 82.
23:23It really was... It was his role, and I do think that that's how they're going to start this year, which is
23:31why we all think he's a value right now, but Andy's right.
23:35In the past, Peyton has certainly been fine with a three-headed timeshare.
23:39Coleman is very good. He's a rookie that we all really loved, fell a little bit in the draft, still good draft
23:46capital, but if he gets the opportunity, I think he is the path for Dobbins to be a bad pick.
23:52Sure. Dobbins isn't a foolproof pick. He looks like a very strong value right now.
23:57He doesn't get the receiving work to be a league-winning type of player, but this could be a top-half offense, and Dobbins
24:05could get a bunch of rushing touchdowns, and then the trio of, sorry, Jay, the trio of Pat Bryant, Sutton, and Waddle,
24:12that's a strong wide receiver crew in my opinion, which if you're in on Bo Nix.
24:17Evan Ingram's there. Yeah, he's just, eh, he's just there.
24:21What, one finish in the top ten last year?
24:24Is there any chance that it's not Bo Nix's fault and it's that stupid Sean Payton's fault?
24:29Well, he is dead last in pre-snap motion in the entire NFL, which we just talked about last week.
24:36No, we don't love that. It's a sign of being an old curmudgeon-y.
24:40That's a stick in the mud. Suck face. Nice.
24:43I've got so much ground to make up you don't even know.
24:47So much ground to make up. Golly, I'll probably have to make fun of Kevin James at some point during this show.
24:54Well. Just by association. Yeah, I mean, it might change with Davis Webb actually calling the plays and being more involved.
25:01We'll see. Hopefully they have more pre-snap motion play action with this offensive line.
25:06Any other Denver Broncos stuff you want to talk about?
25:09Nope. No, I would say overall slightly above neutral for me on the fantasy outlook of this team.
25:15I don't see any of them as real league winners, but I'm fine with just about everybody at cost.
25:21The Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 last year. Here we go, baby!
25:25Yeah. I'm hot. I'm hot and bothered. This is such a...
25:29This team, it seems like every year we have...
25:32This is the year. Yeah, that's what it feels like.
25:35I mean... Yeah. How many this is the year?
25:38Herb Bros. How many this is the year? How many?
25:42A broken clock is right twice a day, my man.
25:45I find my conviction waning. Oh, no. My optimism is that an all-time high.
25:50Like, I'm exciting. Okay. I mean, I'm excited at the potential when you put Mike McDaniel and Herbert and Harbaugh and Hampton
25:57and Ladd and all these guys together. But it does feel like a team where something just goes wrong on a yearly basis.
26:05They were 6-2-1 score games. They were projected to win 9.5 last year.
26:09They beat that. Despite an offense that ranked 18th in yards per game, 24th in points per game, that's why Greg Roman got the boot.
26:17G-Row got to go. Got to go. And Mike McDaniel, we know that this is somebody that, you know, we talked about him.
26:25He's in the top five, I think number one or two in pre-snap motion rate.
26:30He knows how to get his best players open and get them into situations to succeed.
26:35It gives me a lot of optimism that he can do that with, you know, specifically Omarion Hampton putting him in a
26:42position to become an elite running back and then Ladd McConkie and Kewch to be really relevant weekly stars for your fantasy
26:50team even in a place where you can kind of say, hey, Ladd, he let you down but maybe he can be
26:57redeemed by Mike McDaniel in this offense. Jason, I know you are a Herbro.
27:02Yes. Is this another year of not quite there or do you think this is a fantasy relevant year for him as a quarterback?
27:10When it comes to Justin Herbert, I believe in the talent of Justin Herbert.
27:14He is very good. What he had to deal with last year with the offensive line was a nightmare.
27:20He finishes the quarterback nine. I don't look at him specifically as the fantasy piece I want from this team.
27:27I look at him as a really good quarterback that can move an offense, get a ton of scoring opportunities.
27:34You know, he's not going to go out there and rush for 500 plus yards and get eight rushing touchdowns.
27:40He could if he wanted to. He could. He's got the physical capabilities, but with this offensive line with a healthy Hampton,
27:48Mike McDaniel there, I just, this looks to me like a team that's going to score a lot of points.
27:54The offensive line is the biggest thing for me because this is not a small change.
28:00In fact, I don't remember any year. Maybe last year what the Bears did to their offensive line when they brought in
28:07Ben Johnson and they completely took their guards and center and just, well, they opened the vault.
28:13Yeah, they went from one of the worst to one of the best.
28:17I expect this year genuinely the Chargers offensive line to go from one of the worst in the NFL last year, maybe
28:24the worst as far as when they actually played the players who were healthy because their two stars were gone and then
28:31they added one of the best centers in the league this year.
28:35So you're telling me you get, I dare you to pronounce his last name.
28:40No, I professional NFL center. Yes. Tyler B. But you're talking about like a high end top five left tackle, right tackle,
28:47and center that all were not really there last year.
28:51So to your point and Theo Ash tweeted this out, like even with Rashawn Slater who went out in the offseason devastating,
28:58when Joe Ault was active, they were top five in the NFL and EPA per play.
29:03So just having Joe Ault there, it really fell apart after that.
29:07He was hit double the amount of times as Bo Nix, like I said earlier.
29:12I mean, that is, again, we've been here with Justin Herbert.
29:16I know Mike is, like we've always had a reason why the season didn't go right for him.
29:22The Chargers are the equivalent. Bia Dish. That's the last name.
29:26Bia Dish? Bia Dish? Bia Dish. Bia Dish. Get it fancy.
29:29Bia Dish. Bia Dish. No. No. No. I'm okay with it.
29:33It's Monday. So the Chargers lately are, they are the equivalent of Final Destination.
29:37You just, you know. It's, you know. I know.
29:40You know. I do know. The catastrophe, it's, you will not escape it.
29:45Lightning strikes that team. I will say of, I have, I'm not, I'm not critical of, of Herbert's potential in the player.
29:52Just the Herb Rose hive of every, this is the year, this is the year.
29:57Of any, of all the years, this is the most optimism I would share with those who are, are with the Chargers.
30:04McDaniel helps a, a ton for that. Let's look.
30:07To me. Harbaugh is just, he's too old school for me.
30:11And so the fact that you get, I mean, you get polar opposites.
30:15Hardog is as high T as it gets. Do you think those two guys hear each other when they talk?
30:22Or they're just, they just take turns. and, and Harbaugh even hear each other?
30:27Them. Is it like a foreign language back and forth?
30:30Them being matched up together would be interesting television.
30:33But, I am. I'm, I'm optimistic that this is finally the year that things get put together for Herbert and we get
30:40back to what we saw with, what was that, year two of him?
30:45Is Hampton, is Hampton going to be an elite running back with the offensive line you talked about?
30:50Yes. I, that's where I am most, should be.
30:53That's where I'm most excited. Like, I love Lad McConkie, I love Herbert, and I love Hampton, but I'm not 100% sure
31:01that it's going to be Lad on the field in two wide receiver sets.
31:05Which they'll see a ton of 12 personnel. That's taking over the NFL.
31:10I see that this is a team that is, I expect them to win more of their close games this year with Harbaugh and this offensive line.
31:19So, to me, the big winner of the offense that I can personally project is Hampton.
31:24I know they brought in Keaton Mitchell and he's an exciting back and some people are really, really afraid of him.
31:31The wanted poster, Jason. Yeah, the wanted poster, but this is a guy who's not going to touch the ball 10 times in the game, Keaton Mitchell.
31:40I mean, they're talking about getting him eight touches.
31:43That's the type of, and they'll be valuable, they'll be good for the team, but I don't see him as someone that's
31:50a reason to be afraid of Hampton. Also, you know, it's really fun to get off to a hot start in fantasy football.
31:58Right? Good golly, Miss Molly. What if I told you that they open the season against the Cardinals and Raiders?
32:04That's pretty solid. I mean, you're telling me that when you're basically a double-digit favorite, two games in a row, Hampton's not
32:12going to get off to a hot start. I really like...
32:15I mean, that is an incredible start to the year.
32:19Quentin Johnston will be out there in two wide receiver sets.
32:22But then it's road versus the Bills, road, Seahawks, Denver, Kansas City right after that.
32:27Yeah, I mean, all teams in this division will unfortunately have to play this division twice.
32:33That's the biggest argument against any of these teams having a great year is that you have a tough division with three
32:40teams that could easily win the whole thing. I mentioned Quentin Johnson.
32:44He should be out there all the time, even in the 12 personnel sets.
32:49That is an encouragement for him. But there is a lot of optimism around McConkie.
32:54Yeah. And I do trust McDaniel putting him into position to succeed.
32:58I trust McDaniel as well. Well, Lad McConkie is shaping up as one of the, I think, the most difficult picks in fantasy.
33:05Well, because everything makes sense. Just like everything made sense last year for when a second round pick goes 82 for 11, 50, and seven.
33:13Like, that's a guy who's on a rocket ship to be a superstar in the NFL.
33:19And he's so good. And he is so good.
33:22I mean, he can just destroy his own. He gets open.
33:25He has a really high football IQ. And then they bring in Keenan Allen and he's like essentially benched for Keenan Allen.
33:33Keenan, I mean, that's another point though, heading into this year, 22% of targets gone with no Keenan Allen.
33:39122 total targets to Keenan Allen that are gone.
33:42Now, I will, I will go into the season.
33:45They're like, no problem. We're just deleting that because he's back in the fourth round.
33:50Yeah, he's being drafted right now as the wide receiver 18.
33:54I think that's probably about where he finishes, but he does have the talent and upside and opportunity to smash that.
34:01Now, I was just about to say, I'm, until Keenan Allen has a team this year, I'm going to half assume, half
34:08worry that he's going to be a charger. He's just going to sign late and then ruin Ladd.
34:14So if you're doing early drafts right now, I don't know about that, but I, huge, I don't think huge has the
34:21same upside as Ladd because he doesn't have the same talent, but he's being drafted as a wide receiver like 49.
34:28He has, the last two years he's been in the 30s as a wide receiver.
34:33I'm super happy to take a shot on him late.
34:36Are you still in on Gadsden as a breakout candidate at tight end with the 12 personnel with the fact that Njoku
34:44was added but really faded down the stretch last year and seems he's on the back of his, of his career?
34:51Yeah, I was much, I was really bullish on Gadsden as soon as we finished the UDK stats but it certainly hurts him to have Njoku there.
35:00However, as a last round type of pick, that's where I'll go.
35:04I mean, we talk about this all the time or I talk about it all the time.
35:09I'm not taking those middle tight ends. I just want shots at those late guys whether it's, we brought up Dallas Goddard, we brought up some other guys.
35:19I think Gadsden is one of those where you take a swing and it just might be a really, really talented, I mean, his rookie season was awesome.
35:28He should be on the field a ton. He should.
35:31He shouldn't be leaving the field very much. All right, we'll take a break and we'll talk about the 6-11 Kansas City Chiefs.
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36:19All right, the last season for the Chiefs, that was a rough one.
36:246-11, they were projected to win 11 1⁄2 games.
36:27They went 1-9 in one-score games. They went 0-8 against playoff teams.
36:31And then to just put a, you know, be the capstone of the season, you lose your half a billion dollar man to a torn left ACL.
36:39Late in the season. All the recovery reports right now are very, very positive.
36:44But then you also had, you know, Rashi Rice had missed the first six weeks last year with the suspension, then missed three weeks with a concussion.
36:53He had his own sort of drama this offseason.
36:56Again, like there are, there are a lot of questions about this offense in terms of the weapons for Patrick Mahomes.
37:03When Mahomes will be back as a, you know, fully loaded version of himself.
37:08Last year, they only had four offensive plays of 20 plus yards that resulted in a touchdown.
37:13That is the fewest in the NFL. It's the most opposite of what we used to have in Kansas City with the
37:21likes of Tyreek Hill and the big plays. There were 20th in points per game, 20th in yards per game.
37:27You mentioned it, he only missed two games. This was an offensive just plain didn't work.
37:33It was a running game that didn't work at all.
37:36No, not at all. And so, you know, you look at the entirety of the Chiefs and there's only one player on
37:43that team that I have tremendous, a good amount of confidence with producing this year.
37:48And is that Rushy Rice or is that Kenneth Walker?
37:51It's Ken Walker. Yes, it is. I just don't, I think it was a definitive statement by the team to go out and invest in him.
38:00And again, that's not me saying he's a number one running back or anything like that.
38:05It's just that I don't, he'll say that. I see Rashi Rice's production, Mahomes production, Kelsey's production, other ancillary weapons vacillating all over the place.
38:14I would agree with you other than Rushy Rice.
38:17maybe, maybe Rice is the, Rice to me is.
38:20Well, he may vacillate between active and inactive. That's true.
38:23That's true. Whenever you, whenever you really always have to lead with when he's on the field, when he's on the field,
38:30he's great when he's on the field. You know, okay, that is an important distinction.
38:35That being said, most of his not being on the field has been suspension over injury and right now does not seem,
38:43they've already suspended him for what he had a problem with.
38:46We haven't heard any news or buzz about the fact that his parole came up costing him games.
38:52So as of right now, my expectation is that he's there week one.
38:56He is coming off of his own injury. However, it always takes remembering how many fantasy points he scores when he is
39:04on the field, how many targets he gets from Mahomes.
39:07Mahomes last year was the running game. He would drop back.
39:11He couldn't find anybody if Rice wasn't there and he would run.
39:15That was really what saved his fantasy production. I don't expect that to happen coming off of a late ACL.
39:21He's going to be dumping it to Rushy Rice all the time.
39:25Rashee Rice last year in the games played, eight games played all with Mahomes.
39:30Who's on pace for 165 targets from Mahomes? Double digit touchdowns, 1,200 yards, 112 receptions.
39:35That's top three wide receiver type of numbers. Is that what you truly believe he would be over the course of an entire season?
39:43Yes, I truly believe over a course of, if he plays 17 and Mahomes plays 17, for this version of the team
39:50we've got an old Kelsey and ancillary pieces. I think that helps.
39:54I do too. I think Walker really, really helps this team.
39:58And generally, I'm on the team of a running back addition can't really come in and save an offense.
40:04They were awful. We mentioned how bad the ground game was, but so last year, as a team, won 20-plus yard run.
40:11Wow. That's what the Kansas City Chiefs had. Ken Bone Walker, even in limited snaps last year, had 10 by himself.
40:18Walker is a piece of an offense that this team has not had for a long time.
40:24And I think him being a true threat, an explosive threat, where it's not like, oh boy, it's Kareem Hunt or Pacheco.
40:31Okay, fine. They're not... Defenses are not... They're not housing anything.
40:35Defenses are not worried about those guys breaking up a huge run.
40:39Ken Walker is one of the players of every time he goes to the edge, you're like, uh-oh, someone better tackle him.
40:46And I really think that opens things up for Rice.
40:50Rasheed Rice, the wide receiver, that's just a different conversation of how good is he actually, how good are his routes.
40:57I don't care. He has the mind meld with Mahomes, and so I will just lean on that.
41:03When I look at... He is obviously a dangerous pick.
41:06His risk rating in the UDK is going to be plenty high to do something in the middle of the season that jails him.
41:14Yeah. You know, but if I look at where he's going, it's like, okay, Chris Olave, George Pickens, Rushy Rice, Tee Higgins, Tatt.
41:21There's only one of those guys that could finish like the one, the number one or top three wide receiver.
41:28They're all good wide receivers I mentioned, but if you're really wanting to swing for the fences and get a fantasy championship,
41:35I could see Rushy Rice being at the end of the year like he was one of the best.
41:42Yeah, it's wild because, you know, I like Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes was something to prove after last year.
41:48I do like that. Eric Biennemi is taking over the offense from Matt Nagy.
41:53I mean, taking over in the complimentary sense to Andy Reid.
41:57No, Biennemi, this is great news. Maybe. Was it Biennemi or was it Tyreek Hill?
42:02Okay, that's a fair question, but we know that the offense with Matt Nagy as the OC over the last couple years,
42:09we're like, where the heck did Patrick Mahomes go?
42:12What is going on here? Like the high-flying good times Mahomes, you remember?
42:16That's where Biennemi was on the staff. Did you guys mention this?
42:20I got a question for you, Mike. Okay. So, coming up here really soon, we're going to be talking to Jackson Dart,
42:27Cam Scadaboo, we're going to the Fanatics Fan Fest.
42:30How much crap should we talk about Matt Nagy?
42:33To their faces? To their faces. I mean, obviously we're going to talk infinite behind their backs, but should we in that
42:41moment bring up our disdain or should we just be gentlemen?
42:44Because I keep vacillating. you have to do, he just uses that word.
42:49there's so much. I would like you to find a way to ask, who was it that JSN gave the answer about the offensive coordinator?
42:57Oh. Walton? No. Shane Waldron. Walton, yes, yes. Find a way to get an answer like that.
43:03Well, but he's still on the team. It would be next year when he's going to be able to say that.
43:10Last year, Kansas City, 25th in pre-snap motion, 30th in play action rate.
43:14You can't play action when you have no threat of the run.
43:18Ken Walker gives them a threat of the run.
43:21I laugh at the player subtraction list for the Chiefs this year because it is a laundry list of players we talked about like 10 years ago.
43:30Kareem Hunt, Hollywood Brown, and Juju, three of the names departing along with Pacheco.
43:34The star has set. I will say this. They didn't really add anybody in other than Ken Walker.
43:40They didn't add anybody in free agency in the draft that are offensive weapons.
43:45It's not something they invested in. They are going to be a very good defensive team.
43:50It lends itself to, look, can we, like Patrick Mahomes coming back from NACL, you want to protect him, you want to
43:58get the ball out of his hands, you want to have a running game that protects him.
44:03That could be part of the recipe to start the season.
44:07They have a wonderful first six weeks. Favored, favored, favored, favored, bi-week favored.
44:11That's nice to see. Two home games to start the year, then you go on the road against Miami Las Vegas.
44:18So, yeah, I mean, I'm excited to see if I can become a Ken Walker fan on a weekly basis.
44:25Brother, this is best case scenario for everyone. Doesn't matter what side of the Walker argument you were on.
44:31This is because if he fails this year, us Walker truthers, we will be going to lock the door.
44:38Step out of the train. We will be done.
44:41We will admit we were wrong. But if he goes to this team and dominates, proof!
44:46We're never going to hear the end. Proof! Hey, Mike will get a new tattoo.
44:51All are welcome on the Express. You care about Worthy and Kelsey?
44:55Ken Bone Walker. Kelsey more than Worthy. I think Worthy and Thornton, you know, with the fact that Ken Bone...
45:01You guys saw the Worthy video, right? Oh, yes!
45:04The route! Real tight corners! That looked like some thick grass, man.
45:08Why did... Why? Why post that? Why was that posted?
45:12Yes. For those who haven't seen it, Worthy was running the most ridiculous...
45:16I don't even... You can't call it a route.
45:19He's running circles. He's running circles. He's running big wide circles.
45:23And it looks worse than I would expect my kids to do.
45:27I don't know. As not a professional wide receiver, perhaps something's going on there that we don't know about.
45:33But optically, why are you posting that? Yeah. I agree.
45:36I think that the deep threats in Worthy and Thornton will have their games, but it's tough for me to want to
45:44draft them because I don't think they will be reliable enough.
45:47Kelsey is another one of those guys that... I mean, look, he's going to...
45:52Kelsey has a chance. At the end of the draft, again, some of these...
45:56Kelsey can be top five again. Not everybody that we mention in this handful of late round targets at tight end will
46:04be there at the end of the draft. But for sure some of them will be because there's enough of those tier
46:11of guys where they're just undrafted and maybe Kelsey goes a little earlier because he's first bout Hall of Fame and people hope for the upside.
46:20But when he slips in a draft to those double digit rounds...
46:24Laporta for your team or Kelsey? I would much rather have Kelsey in the 12th or 10th than Laporta in the 5th.
46:31Laporta's going in the 5th? No. No, but I would much rather have him.
46:36I don't know. Where is Laporta going right now?
46:39I'd much rather have Kelsey in the 15th than Laporta in the first.
46:43I'll tell you that. Yeah. No, dude, me too.
46:46Me too. Let me look up... He blew my mind for a second.
46:50I bet he's going in the 9th. He's 8th.
46:53Okay. The Raiders, last team we get to talk about in the AFC West.
46:58Projected win total last year was 6.5. They ended up with the worst record in the league despite having, according to Jason,
47:05the league's best quarterback in Geno Smith. Only comparatively to the last year's Jets quarterback.
47:10I know. I just am having fun with it.
47:132-5-1 score games. They won week 1 against the Patriots, which is wild.
47:17The Patriots go to the Super Bowl in Foxborough.
47:20Week 1. I mean, beyond that they were 2-14.
47:23Their win total this year, 5.5. So, they're only favored in 3 of their 17 games.
47:29They were the worst offense in football last year.
47:32They were one of the worst defenses in football, and you have a head coaching change because Pete Carroll, goodbye.
47:38It was fun, but the flavor in that bubble gum is finally gone.
47:43Clint Kubiak, though, I mean, this was exciting. It was the time to capitalize.
47:47You go and you do what you did in Seattle.
47:51It was impressive, and he gets to head coaching gig.
47:54They add Kirk Cousins. They obviously drafted Fernando Mendoza at 101.
47:58They added an elite edge rusher in Max Crosby.
48:01Yeah, that's right. From the Ravens. Yeah. Two first round picks.
48:04Yeah. Okay. Do you realize, by the way, that like, you know that Mendoza's not under contract?
48:10I did not know that. Wait, he hasn't? What?
48:13Yeah, go Google. Is that why he's out on Alaska?
48:16Yes, it is. You're saying he hasn't signed? I do not believe he is.
48:21I believe they thought he was going to sign.
48:24I see he's signed. One day ago, Marcus Allen talking about the Fernando Mendoza situation, the fact that he is not in the building.
48:32He was supposed to. Yes. This is what I'm saying.
48:35It's been very under-publicized. It's been under-publicized because it will be irrelevant.
48:39Well, but it's relevant and your OTAs and your chance to get reps on this team and your confidence from your head coach.
48:47I would agree. The difference, and I think... This is why he was on a cruise with me.
48:53Right. From our perspective, everyone expects Kirk Cousins to start the season and everyone expects Mendoza to finish the season.
48:59I believe that's what's going to happen no matter what.
49:03But I just... I didn't realize it. I feel like it hasn't been talked about because these are normally slotted situations and the money's pretty set.
49:11So then you're talking about things like signing bonus differentials or something?
49:15Yeah, there's always weird things. And I'm not the expert on what's going on because this is sort of breaking news to last week.
49:23I... It also looks like their fourth-round pick McCoy hadn't signed.
49:27Well, they are the Raiders. Yeah. So when you've got certain...
49:30Figure it out. So it is going to be Cousins to start this year, which...
49:35I think it's good. Cousins loves to throw the football to the running back position.
49:40That's the thing that jumps out to me. Like, if you want to get off to a hot start, I'm already in
49:48love with Dash and Jinty this year. But give me a professional quarterback that's already played and some...
49:54Like, there are just metrics rookie quarterbacks don't hit.
49:57They don't hit certain touchdown totals. They don't hit certain yardage totals.
50:01The pass attempts per game are going to be lower.
50:04I like that it's Cousins to start the year.
50:07I do too. We've talked a lot about the research that we've done, Mike's done, on the fact that pass-catching weapons don't
50:14usually do well in fantasy with a rookie quarterback.
50:17So if you give half a year of Cousins and half a year with Mendoza, and specifically the second half of the
50:25year with Mendoza, obviously they're going to be better then than having to start the season slow.
50:30I mean, that's... I will say, there's some risk of Ashton Jinty if you're saying that...
50:35Like, Mendoza's inevitable. Yes. It's just at what point...
50:38No, they have... There's been whispers of they want an entire year of red-shirting.
50:43That'd be great. That would be great. Would you be able to...
50:47You're not going to do that if you're two and three.
50:51Well, you might. You might. But at what point...
50:54If the season's lost, you also have to make that decision about are those reps valuable?
50:59What I'm getting to is I will always be on the side of I'm worried about rookie quarterbacks, their skill players because
51:06rookie quarterbacks just don't produce as much. If you have a switch halfway through and now it's like Bowers, it genties one
51:14of your guys and you're heading into the playoffs, you want...
51:17If you have a down first half and an elite second half, that's so much better.
51:23Yeah, I mean, I... Because you want to win a championship.
51:26I see what you're saying but I think that when we look at and maybe we can do a study on second
51:34half of the year rookie and their receiving options in the second half of the year because it's very, very common where
51:41we come in talking about a second year quarterback and we say, let's throw out the first month of their play.
51:48Let's look at the second half of their year and it's significantly better.
51:52Makes just all the sense of the world. Right, but if he didn't get a first half...
51:58It's his first half if he's taken over at the back half.
52:02I mean, obviously it depends on what week he goes in but I don't think he makes it all the way to
52:09the fantasy playoffs before he gets his first start.
52:12I don't like... It is interesting because both of the elite tight ends that you want the most on your team this
52:19year do have quarterback change variables built in. Sure.
52:22If Bowers gets off to a rock solid start...
52:25Bowers is going to be awesome. He is going to be awesome but you are going to have...
52:31Look, we spent the entire time talking about the Cardinals when we broke them down what the target totals and the numbers
52:39look like for Trey McBride with Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals are a team projected to win almost nothing.
52:45There's a chance they take a shot on Carson Beck or somebody the second half of the year or the second...
52:52Oh. You know, the last third of the year...
52:55I would be surprised if Carson Beck doesn't get some starts.
52:58So that is something that's built into both these guys.
53:02If Mendoza takes over for the last third of the year you're going to be underdogs in all those games you're getting
53:09your first snaps they're going to put pressure on the quarterback it is going to be a variable there for Bowers and Trey McBride that are...
53:18Like McBride's numbers were so outlandish with Brissett we're like oh well they'll just be good with somebody else.
53:24It's... How many touchdowns does Mendoza throw? How many touchdowns does Carson Beck throw for Arizona?
53:29That's the concern. McBride's always been great. It was the touchdowns that destroyed him.
53:34I do not... It doesn't stop me from drafting Bowers because who else are you going to take if you want elite production at tight end?
53:43But I know that Caleb Williams is going to be the starter for the entire year for Colson Loveland.
53:49Sure. Daniel Jones barring injury is going to start the entire year for the Indianapolis Colts.
53:54It's just something to keep in the back of your head.
53:58Yeah, that's fair. I think that the talent of Bowers and McBride just usurp the quarterback issues especially Bowers because...
54:04Well, Carson Beck I mean Carson Beck if he gets starts that's going to be really, really tough sledding.
54:11Mendoza's the number one overall pick for a reason.
54:14Maybe he doesn't throw as many touchdowns which nerfs the true upside but the number one target for this team is Bowers.
54:21I mean by the widest margin ever. You don't have that same certainty with McBride.
54:26Like maybe Marv becomes the number one target this year or whatever.
54:30I did laugh at your statement about that they don't...
54:33We did research on how pass catchers don't do good with rookie quarterbacks and then the Raiders are like, yeah, so we won't have any.
54:42We decided we'll just not have any other than Bowers we're just not going to worry about Naylor and Tucker and Best.
54:49I actually love the Raiders here because their defense is bad and their consolidation of talent is perfect.
54:55You have Bowers you have Gentee and you have no one else to even like consider looking at or...
55:01You don't even have someone else in my opinion to consider thinking about considering.
55:06Like I'm not going to be worrying about Jalen Naylor.
55:09They're a tier below consideration? Correct. So, I really like both Bowers and Gentee.
55:14They're going to have so much volume and they have so much talent that that just that combination when you're that good
55:21and you get that much work yeah, it's going to be tough sledding.
55:25Yeah, you're going to be playing down and you might not score as many touchdowns but you're just going to volume your way to fantasy points.
55:34Mike, you know where Jason and I stand on our love of Gentee going into the year but does the upside of
55:41Gentee and that workload outweigh the risk to you for a team that's projected to only win five games?
55:48So, Gentee is like you know, I'm a few spots behind you guys because I just I think he's the situation is risky.
55:55I have no problem Ashton Gentee the player is awesome.
55:59You know, he did handle a huge workload last year which is somehow it's an ability I mean, I don't know how
56:06to quantify it but there's just guys that can do it and there's guys that cannot.
56:11He, you know, when a play actually gets going he's electric he will force a missed tackle.
56:17I think you know, they took Mike Washington Jr.
56:20just size speed freak they took him in the fourth round.
56:23the way that Kub's handled Charbs and Ken Walker gives me at least a little bit of pause that that a backup
56:31might be in there more than you want. So it's I think he is a sketchy a sketchy pick at ADP where
56:38I can see everything going right and he's just truly, truly a dominant player because he's the talent wins out.
56:45Like, do you think he could lead the league in rushing?
56:48Yards? No, not in rushing. Okay. And if you're saying like yards from scrimmage because maybe he has to catch a whole bunch of passes.
56:57I got you. You know what I mean? I'm like, you can't be, you can't lead the league in rushing.
57:03I don't like that start to the year, man.
57:06Chargers on the road, Saints on the road, Chiefs, New England and Buffalo.
57:11With their situation and they're going to win I'd be like, let's say they have a great year.
57:17They win six games. Like this, the first overall pick to winning six games with a quarterback switch.
57:23That's a solid season. You can't lead the league in rushing with that.
57:27Nick Chubb could. Kyle, that's an interesting trivia question.
57:30Like what's the worst record for a rushing leader?
57:33I wonder if he could get it, get that stat for us before the show ends.
57:38I don't know if he's that talented. I think two things left to consider.
57:43We saw last year Kirk Cousins when he took over, Drake London was injured for most of those games.
57:49B. John Robinson and Kyle Pitts. And Kyle Pitts, the tight end and the running back, the consolidation for Kirk Cousins was unbelievable.
57:57106 target pace for B. John during those final games.
58:00Pitts was great. So you've already seen, like when I watched Kirk Cousins' film, he has lost it.
58:06He does not have the deep ball. I love Kirk Cousins.
58:10We've always been a big stan of Kirk Cousins back in the Vikings day.
58:14We felt like he was so under-respected. But he is not that guy anymore.
58:19But to the tight end and running back, you know, not the deep shots, those aren't going to happen.
58:25But he's going to support these two phenomenally. And then the other thing that I don't think we've made enough big a
58:33deal about is the offensive change here. Clint Kubiak coming in is not just a good offensive mind coming in.
58:39Sure. He's replacing an inept situation where you had this weird nepotism with Pete Carroll hiring his two sons as like an
58:46offensive assistant and offensive line coach and then ends up firing other people but not his sons.
58:52It was just like it was a really bad situation they were in and they're going to swing the pendulum to a really good situation.
59:00They still don't have the talent on the offensive line but I believe that there will be, I mean, I really like those two players.
59:09I think, I mean, I have no fears of either one at value.
59:13I think Gentey returns on value this year and Brock is.
59:17So I must stand corrected as there was a player on a six-win team who led the league in rushing in 2010.
59:24In 2010. You want to guess? Oh, I could never.
59:27No, you couldn't but his name's Arian Foster, baby.
59:30Oh, your dream boat. That's how good Foster was.
59:33All right, Thursday's show is a mock draft episode.
59:36You do not want to miss that one and then we'll start jumping into the NFC on Saturday.
59:42Yeah, get into the UDK. Jason is guaranteed a new feature that we're not sure is even going to be there.
59:49Update your app immediately and give us feedback and let us know how those mock drafts are going at sportatfantasyfootballers.com.
59:56How in the world does a running back have 1,600 rushing yards, and 16 rushing touchdowns.
60:01So he averaged over 100 yards per game on the ground and you're 6-10.
60:06How is that even possible? I wonder what they were in one score games, Mike.
60:11Probably pretty crappy. All right, that is going to do it for today's show.
60:15Shout out to Arian Foster, my main man. Maybe we'll get one of those years from Gentee.
60:21Goodbye. All right. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
60:26Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.
60:31Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie. And one thing I've learned is that you buy a house, but you make it a home.
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60:52From plumbing to electrical, roof repair to deck upgrades.
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61:03Find a pro for your project at Angie.com. Breathe in.
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