PodcastFrom Fantasy Footballers
Bust & Value Picks for 2026! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
55 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 20, 2026
Published
Thu, August 20, 2026
16
Player insights
15
Players mentioned
Topics
Chris GodwinBo NixCaleb DouglasChris BellChuba HubbardGreg DulcichJameson WilliamsMakai LemonMalik WashingtonNajee HarrisSam LaPortaTravis EtienneTyler WarrenTyrone Tracy
Player analysis
Player insights
Bo Nix
PositiveValue75:29
Bo Nix is significantly misplaced in current drafts at QB15; he has historically finished as a top-seven quarterback and is entering a favorable situation with a strong offense and a schedule that could lead to high-scoring, competitive games.
Insight pageCaleb Douglas
PositiveBreakout14:10
Caleb Douglas is a high-upside target in the Dolphins' wide receiver room because he is expected to play nearly 100% of snaps from Week 1. Despite the general rule that non-first-round rookie wide receivers are poor fantasy picks, Douglas's physical profile (6'4", 206 lbs, 4.39 40-yard dash) and consistent positive training camp reports make him a viable late-round shot.
Insight pageChris Bell
NegativeValue23:05
Chris Bell is considered a talented player long-term, but he is currently undraftable in redraft formats as coaches indicate he is a long way away from contributing.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue41:42
Godwin is highlighted as a value pick, currently going in the 13th round on ESPN. Despite being 30 and dealing with past injuries, the source notes his strong connection with Baker Mayfield and his role as a stabilizer in PPR formats. Camp reports suggest his explosiveness has returned, making him a must-start WR2 at a bargain price.
Insight pagePositiveValue74:01
Despite injury concerns from the last two seasons, Chris Godwin is an undervalued asset; camp reports indicate his explosiveness has returned, and he remains a strong value even if he only plays half a season.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeBust39:23
Hubbard is a full fade for the source, who highlights his lack of forced missed tackles and poor efficiency metrics despite high volume early last season. With Jonathan Brooks in the mix and the Panthers facing the third-hardest schedule in 2026, the source views Hubbard as a player to avoid in the 'dead zone' of running back drafts.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
NegativeValue18:39
Greg Dulcich is considered a higher-value sleeper tight end, but he is not in the same tier as elite options like Brock Bowers or Trey McBride and is unlikely to command a massive target share.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveBreakout28:08
The source is high on Williams, noting he finished as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver last year after LaPorta's injury and a coaching change. If LaPorta misses time to start the season, Williams is viewed as a primary beneficiary in the Lions' offense.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveInjury25:20
Makai Lemon is returning to practice on Thursday after dealing with a hamstring injury.
Insight pageMalik Washington
NegativeUsage16:42
Malik Washington is viewed as a capable NFL receiver but lacks the ceiling for fantasy relevance, with the source noting he is likely capped in production. Conversely, another perspective suggests he is a third-year veteran worth a bet given his history of being buried behind superstars.
Insight pageNajee Harris
NegativeDepth Chart26:33
Najee Harris was signed by the Giants and is noted for his pass-blocking ability, which could threaten the volume of other running backs like Cam Scadaboo, though it remains unclear if he is more than a camp body.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeInjury27:45
LaPorta is currently dealing with a hip injury, and Dan Campbell has expressed uncertainty regarding whether the injury will impact his availability for the start of the regular season.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeBust30:41
The source lists Etienne as a bust pick due to a downgrade in offensive line quality, poor red-zone efficiency (only 15% conversion rate inside the 10-yard line), and a reliance on non-repeatable receiving touchdowns. Additionally, the return of Alvin Kamara is expected to eat into his pass-catching volume, and the team faces a difficult early-season schedule.
Insight pageTyler Warren
NegativeInjury1:48
Tyler Warren suffered a groin injury; while initial reports were confusing, the current outlook suggests no concern for Week 1 of the regular season.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
NegativeUsage26:52
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is facing scrutiny after a significant missed block in the preseason that allowed a hit on the team's franchise quarterback, potentially impacting his standing in the backfield rotation.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveBreakout82:29
Zay Flowers is a high-upside target who maintained a 28% target share last year; he is one of only two players outside the top 12 wide receivers with a 27%+ target share, and he is expected to see positive touchdown regression in a high-powered Ravens offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Foot Clan, before we start today's show, it is important to let you know the Megalobolt is back.
0:06And it's back in a big way. Over 20,000 players last year.
0:10We're going to break a record this year. Go to Megalobolt.com and you can be a part of the biggest fantasy football league in existence.
0:18Have a chance to not only win a spot in the listener league for next year, but you'll also have a chance
0:26to win an ultimate Foot Clan subscription for life.
0:29And you compete and the pride is really, I think, the key.
0:33It's so mega. It's so mega. Head over there right now.
0:37We're going to start the show. Megalobolt.com. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
0:44Welcome in! Thursday, August 20th, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
0:47Oh boy! Another day, another groin. That's my motto.
0:50Another day, another groin. Dude, I was going to make a joke.
0:54This show is rated R this week. We made it to tomorrow.
0:58But I forgot. You forgot? You thought we made it?
1:01We had a pretty big one. Yeah. Just one day.
1:05We just want one day without a groin injury.
1:08Tyler Warren this time? Yeah, Tyler Warren. What would you tell him?
1:12I would tell him to stretch it out like a butterfly would do.
1:16I've got a picture. Slap the wings, man! Honestly, if you go to groinindex.com, you can see the technique.
1:23I am personally presenting it. So groinindex.com. You were briefly going to go.
1:27There it is! Oh, look at that. We are on the show.
1:31Fly! Nice location for you. Fly like a butterfly.
1:34But you were going to be a PT for a while, right?
1:38I thought about it for a long while. Focusing on groins.
1:42Solely groin. A groin PT. But another day, another injury.
1:45Not the only one. We'll talk about the news.
1:48We've got leader of the pack today. We got bus picks and value picks on the show today.
1:54So if this thing goes over, it goes over.
1:57I don't care. We'll just... Oh, dad's getting crazy.
2:00We got fantasy football teams we've got to prepare.
2:03On a Thursday? On a Thursday. I was out late.
2:07Why not? Just keep it going. But you heard at the top, the Megalobull.
2:11Go compete right now. Megalobull.com if you want to participate there.
2:15And don't forget... And you do. We still have our UDK for Life giveaway going on.
2:20We're going to do a live stream next Monday.
2:23Answer tons of questions. Drafts are coming up. I'm going to do it, Mike.
2:28We're live on the show. Oh, he's doing it.
2:31I'm going to do something that I just brought up as an idea to you.
2:36A minute ago. Do you know? No, I don't know.
2:40Now listen, our My Guys episode is next week.
2:43Oh, okay. I'm going to just do the halfway.
2:46Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Our My Guys episode is next week.
2:49We have had some people like, oh, I'm drafting this weekend.
2:53I don't have your My Guys yet. And I'm like, okay.
2:57The episode's next week. The season starts a week later this year.
3:01We have to thread the needle. We don't want all of our nine guys going down with groin injuries.
3:07Do you see how many people are getting hurt?
3:10But some of you are drafting this weekend, and I know you'd like to know them.
3:16And here's what I'm going to do for you.
3:19Our show's next week. But I am going to go into our ultimate draft kit, and I'm going to mark- Personally, he's going to go in.
3:27I'm going to mark- We always mark the My Guys once we have the show.
3:32I'm going to mark one My Guy per person early for this weekend.
3:37So if you have the ultimate draft kit, I'm going to ask you two things.
3:42One, go in, find the My Guys. They'll be marked by, you know, we put them in the system.
3:48Two- Let's keep it secret. Keep- Don't tell anybody.
3:51Keep it secret. Don't blow it. No spoilers. Spoilers?
3:54I feel like I might get more spoilers by asking you.
3:58Well, I mean, you'll- You'll get them. The Foot Clan- Someone's going to LaShawn McCoy this.
4:03They're integrous people. That's why I'm only giving one away.
4:07I could go- I could put them all nine in there, but I'm not crazy.
4:12But I'll do that. If you're in the ultimate draft kit, if you have it- Josh says, well, there goes my side business.
4:19Oh, you guys, you were selling the data early?
4:22If you knew- You're out on the street in a trench coat.
4:26If you knew how many people- You want some My Guys?
4:30Have emailed me asking for the My Guys early, you would be shocked.
4:35How much money have you made? I can't say.
4:38Check his live Venmo feed. But- Shout out to next week's spitballers.
4:42Yeah, but yeah, if you- We've had the question being asked because the timing- People don't necessarily know that the season starts a week later.
4:50And anyways, I'll reveal- We'll put three of them in there early and then we'll do the show next week.
4:57But we're doing the giveaway. We have a live stream coming up, ultimatedraftkit.com.
5:01Get prepared. We've covered all of our rankings, right?
5:04Our projections, our tier-based rankings, 100-plus player profile videos.
5:07A brand new- If you're just coming back to the show, because I know a lot of comments lately, they're like, Oh,
5:15your back wall is different and stuff like that.
5:18If you're just coming back to the show, we added a fully-featured mock draft tool.
5:23Mm-hmm. That will be going- It's on the mobile apps.
5:26It will be on web today. Nice. It will be on the web today.
5:31So lots going on. UltimateDraftKit.com. Let's get the show started.
5:34Leader of the Pack. Presented by PetSmart. All right.
5:37We are looking, once again, at a complicated situation, depth chart-wise, on a certain team.
5:42We've covered a couple of teams over the last couple weeks.
5:46Today, we're looking to crown a leader of the pack.
5:49And I'm not going to say that, you know, some of these teams, maybe it's a stroll through the meadow and the flowers are blooming.
5:58Mm-hmm. We're going through the swamps here. Sometimes it's like, it's a pack of wolves.
6:03Sometimes it's, maybe like some coyotes or hyenas. Varmin.
6:06All right. I'm terrified of hyenas. Well, in this case, it is- I'm terrified of the Dolphins receivers.
6:12It's the Dolphins wide receivers. Brooks calls it a pack of dolphins.
6:16Brooks. A pack of dolphins. It's a pod. You idiots.
6:19Oh, man. Get by. Go, Brooks. All the money in the world.
6:23He works on a podcast. He doesn't know what a pod is.
6:27Can't buy an education. Give me a break. So rich.
6:30Learn about seed life. Well, 60% of the Dolphins' salary this year is dedicated to players not on the team.
6:37Did you know that? That would be Tyreek Kale, Jalen Waddell, two wideouts that are not on the team, but will be
6:45receiving a ton of money and counting against the cap.
6:48Incredibly. $28 million. Tyreek will count against the cap.
6:51$23 million that Wadda will. But- It has to be a record.
6:55Where there is an absence, there is an opportunity, right?
6:58That is correct. The most vacated target share and air yard share in the NFL and a wide receiver room entirely undrafted in fantasy.
7:06Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, Jalen Tolbert. Okay.
7:09Greg Dulcich. These are the players that my, not a my guy, but my- This is like your dynasty team.
7:16Bad. Excuse me? I have Cyrus Allen. You know, these are the- Malik Willis has to throw the ball to these players.
7:24And he will. By rule, by rule, the Dolphins have to play 17 games this year.
7:29And so they will actually have offensive yardage. And I know it can't all be Devon Anchan.
7:35So, yeah, I mean, I did have Kyle look up once upon a time.
7:39Because I was like, this team will be playing 60 minutes every single week and no one is drafted.
7:46Is there a situation in the past where you see a bunch of wide receivers where we're just not sure?
7:52We think it's a bad offense, no one is drafted.
7:56And, you know, what's the lowest they finish? Unfortunately, it did seem like, historically, there are plenty of examples where it turned out no one was worth drafting.
8:05But the question is, who is, if someone's worth drafting here, who would it be?
8:10And I know my answer clearly. Was anybody worth drafting for the Raiders last year?
8:15I mean, it was a similar situation. I mean, Brock Purdy.
8:19Not a wide receiver. No, no, no, wide receiver.
8:22Mike, what are you doing here? Well, we have a tight end listed in this group here.
8:28No, I read the wide receivers. And I mentioned Greg Dolson.
8:31Oh, okay. Well, he doesn't count. We're looking at- Plays tight end.
8:35Just making sure you know. What are you talking about?
8:39Greg Dolson. He plays tight end. Yeah. Mike was just making sure you knew.
8:44We're talking about the wide receivers for the Dolphins.
8:47What is it? Okay. Who's the winner for you?
8:50For me, it's Caleb Douglas. And it's funny because recently I've made a lot of comments, we all have, about the fact
8:57that when you draft, and I don't mean rookie year playing them.
9:01I'm just saying at our fantasy football draft, when you draft wide receivers who weren't drafted in the first round, it is universally usually a bad pick.
9:10The reason why is because even day two picks average sub-50% snaps.
9:14And that's really genuinely what it comes down to is are you on the field week one?
9:20If you're not on the field week one, it's a bad draft pick.
9:24You don't need to hold on to a rookie wide receiver who might develop later in the year.
9:30You don't need that the first few weeks. But the reason why Caleb Douglas might break the mold, I mean, we always talk about this, right?
9:39Even if it's an 80%, 80% of the time they bust, that would mean 20% of the time it works out.
9:46And the reason that I think Caleb Douglas is maybe able to break the mold is because he will be on the field.
9:54From week one, I expect him to be playing pretty much 100% of the wide receiver snaps.
9:59He played every snap with Malik Willis in preseason.
10:02You've seen enough Malik Washington to know that he's just not that good.
10:07Not good enough to produce? Exactly. He's fine. He's a good NFL wide receiver.
10:12He should be on an NFL team. But for fantasy football, he is not good enough to go out there and average
10:1970 yards a game and get a ton of touchdowns.
10:22I think he's irrelevant for fantasy football personally. So I want to take the shot of the unknown of Caleb Douglas, a
10:30guy, if he was a third-round pick, 75th overall.
10:33He's also been making a lot of noise consistently the entire offseason.
10:37They've been saying Caleb Douglas has looked really good.
10:40I'm with you. I think we've seen enough Malik Washington to feel a little bit capped on what the production can be.
10:47I like Malik Willis. I think he's a good quarterback.
10:51I think we've really heard no negative news about Malik Willis during this offseason.
10:55Can't say the same for Tua, Tunga Bailoa, or Kyler Murray.
10:59Malik has had some highlight plays in training camp, and I think Caleb Douglas is the highest upside opportunity and probably one where we have been here before.
11:08We completely, as fantasy players, dismissed Jalen Waddle. Now, Waddle was a higher draft capital player, so it still happened, though.
11:15People just didn't believe that the team can have a productive player.
11:19And to broaden the conversation, I know we like Greg Dulcich to be a target in the offense, but Greg Dulcich is not Brock Bowers.
11:28He's not Trey McBride. He's not a player that is going to have 100 receptions on this team.
11:34Bowers and McBride can do that. Dulcich can be a higher-value sleeper tight end, but at the end of the day, I
11:41think you can look at this team and say, wow, if they outperform what our expectations are on offense, who would be the beneficiary to me?
11:50I like Caleb Douglas. Yeah, his production profile was pretty good.
11:54His physical attributes are great. I mean, this is a player who's 6'4", 206 pounds, ran a 4'3", 940, which is 91st percentile for weight-adjusted speed score.
12:03He's been making plays. To be honest, I don't think it's going to be anybody.
12:08Yeah. I think it will be no one. In the last round, you're taking wild shots, and I talked about this on the Tips and Tricks episode yesterday.
12:17Be willing to move on right off the bat.
12:20If he's out there for 62% of the snaps week one, get rid of him.
12:25But I do think there's a chance he's out there for 100% of wide receiver snaps from the get-go.
12:32I'm on the Malik Washington side. He's been the name that has popped up the most to me while I've been following
12:39the beat reporters, and it's been pretty positive news.
12:42Because, like, generally speaking, I do agree, Jay, of the process of, okay, he's a – Malik was a six-round pick.
12:49We're going into year three. He's been – You think a Malik-to-Malik thing's going on this year then?
12:55Hey, it doesn't hurt. No. It doesn't hurt. We can Malik throw down.
13:00Hey, he's got my name. Target. Target. Like – and Washington is, you know, as a rookie, 220 yards.
13:06Then last year, 317 yards. He was, I mean, buried on a depth chart with two – Superstars.
13:12Two superstars. So I don't completely blame him for not being able to break into that rotation at all.
13:18I mean, you know, we had last year – or I'm sorry, three years ago, Parker Washington, 132 yards.
13:25Parker Washington, year two, 390 yards. And now Parker Washington's the hotness.
13:29Like, it's not impossible. It's not probable at all.
13:32But I'll put my bet on the third-year veteran.
13:35It was a tough decision for me between those two.
13:38And I will say the underdog in this situation, unfortunately, you know, the guy with maybe the most talent.
13:45Oh, yeah. We're just – Chris Bell. Chris Bell is a – he was a French first-round pick, tore his ACL, drops to the third round.
13:53But from a talent perspective, you know, right now their coaches say he's a long way away.
13:59Yeah, that would be next year. In a dynasty league, you know, after the draft, I had Chris Bell ranked ahead of
14:06Caleb Douglas because long-term, I think he is the more talented player coming out of college.
14:12In redrafts, when you're at your draft right now, Chris Bell's – yeah, that's an ominous bell.
14:18That's what we need right now. And I would say that he – It's all for thee.
14:23He's completely undraftable. So, that was Leader of the Pack presented by PetSmart.
14:28Visit your local PetSmart store or go to PetSmart.com today.
14:31PetSmart, anything for pets. News and notes from around the league.
14:35Well, the Colts tight end Tyler Warren suffered a groin injury.
14:38We talked about it earlier. Yeah, that is the – I mean, not all groins are equal, Mike.
14:44No. Tight end. No, they are not. This one's – I mean, those are big boys.
14:50Right now, they're saying there's no – Just shut it down, please.
14:54Yeah, right now, they're saying there's no worries for week one of the regular season.
14:59And we had some weird reporting because it was like – It went adductor two to three weeks.
15:05Right. And then it circled back to one week with a groin.
15:09Those are connected probably. I don't know. Makai Lemon.
15:12The adductor is connected to the abductor. Right. I don't know.
15:16There's a machine that does that thing. Finally, good news in the news section.
15:20Yeah, Makai Lemon is returning to practice on Thursday.
15:23Hey, all right. Great. So – Don't pull a Jordan Mason.
15:27He's coming back from a hamstring. Stay on the field.
15:30Yeah, that's tough always. I got a snake, man.
15:33The snake himself. I don't know how I feel about that anymore.
15:38I just don't – It's just not – Okay.
15:41Okay. Makai Lemon's press conference lives forever. I don't have any other big-time news.
15:45Was there anything that like – I will say this.
15:49The commentary right now – Let's talk Giants running back room for a second.
15:53Yeah. We brought up the Najee Harris signing, which was easier for me to dismiss without seeing any film of Najee Harris recovering from this injury.
16:02He looked good in the limited amount of film we had.
16:06The little individual drills, yeah. His cuts were nice.
16:09And Mike brought up the missed block by Tyrone Tracy Jr.
16:12was significant. And then more news around New York came out that like it shed a different light on Tyrone Tracy when
16:20he missed the block, allowed their future basically. Their franchise.
16:23Jackson Dart get blown up. And Najee, you mentioned, being a very good pass blocker.
16:28But the whole point of this that I want to bring up that we didn't discuss was – And I know you adjusted him down.
16:37But the possibility that really Cam Scadaboo doesn't maybe play as much as we think he will for the first half of this year in terms of volume.
16:46Yeah. And I would say these are not – I'm not setting off panic alarms by any stretch.
16:52But you've got to pay attention. This is a new variable.
16:56We know that it's being reported by Jordan Renan that it's a veteran minimum deal.
17:01There's no guarantees. So this could be – Najee's a camp body.
17:05It could be, yeah. And then he gets cut and then – okay.
17:09But there – I mean, that's – there's smoke when you have a guy coming off an injury.
17:15You have a player with one of the biggest pass block wits we have witnessed in the preseason.
17:21Oh, man. It was bad. It's just – it's something to pay attention to.
17:26All right. That'll do it for news. We will take a break and we've got some busts.
17:32Well, Kyle's saying Najee's workout was set up even before the Tracy non-block.
17:36Yeah, I mean, that lends itself even more towards like just what involvement will Scadaboo have, Tracy Singletary, and depth.
17:43I mean, you just – you need it. I want as an absolute lover of Cam Scadaboo's play style, film, history, everything.
17:50I want to be so in. Like coming into this offseason, I was like, he's probably going to be my guy.
17:57And I just have bad vibes there. I don't love – I'm not quick to pull the trigger right now.
18:04I think it might be a slow start to the story.
18:08Well, we're going to continue the conversation here because we get to talk about this team again in a moment.
18:14My last point on it is, again, I'm just trying to, you know, think out loud.
18:20And I don't want to be an alarmist or panic.
18:23But it's just like we've seen this before. We've seen day three running backs come in and have success in fantasy football.
18:31We love these players. And then someone new comes in and they're gone.
18:35And, like, it doesn't make sense. You know, we just had – we had the Damian Pierce year where he comes in.
18:42He's pretty solid for fantasy football. And you think, well, he's got to be the guy moving to next year.
18:49Absolutely not. They just got rid of him. Well, it doesn't help that there's a change in – That's what I'm saying.
18:56Like, you have a – like, Scat is not a hardball guy.
19:00Like, there's a turd at offensive coordinator. Yeah. But we can just move on because we're going to talk about this team.
19:08Okay. All right. We have individual picks for both the bust and value segments today.
19:13So lots to talk about, to debate, to discuss, and to, well, in the bust case, be fearful of.
19:19Let's get into it. Bust. Bust. Bust. All right.
19:22Well, these guys are not guaranteed to fail. We have consensus busts in the ultimate draft kit.
19:28But we are kind of looking at situations we think are high risk, maybe look really good from the outside, but kind of buyer beware situations.
19:37And unfortunately, I know that this name – Is not agreed upon here.
19:41No, no. We have a difference of opinion. And it's not really difference of opinion at all about the player, the talent, the ability of them.
19:50It is a concern with the – I mean, you just – you love Cam Scadaboo.
19:55Mm-hmm. But you have concerns about the, you know, situation, the vibes.
19:59Yeah. The vibes aren't great in New York, and that makes sense with Matt Nagy there.
20:05Yeah. And so my bust pick, the one that I am not – like if I took this player in the draft, I know it's a good value.
20:14And you can take the shot on the first couple weeks.
20:18I don't think that's a problem. It's not like you're overpaying.
20:21But you might not get a starting quarterback out of it.
20:25My bust pick, unfortunately, regrettably, is Jackson Dart, Jason's fifth overall quarterback.
20:29In four-point passing touchdowns. I know. People hate it.
20:32Well, the people want to see Jackson Dart and the New York Giants have success.
20:37And with Harbaugh's arrival, I thought it was on the way.
20:41When Greg Roman and Matt Nagy pulled up in the car behind – Oh, man.
20:46In the Uber – Someone need an offense to fix?
20:49We're here. In the Uber pool. When Cliff Kingsbury was the offensive coordinator, if you don't remember, Cliff Kingsbury basically – the report was – Yeah.
20:58Cliff Kingsbury signing to be the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants.
21:02It was like, oh, baby. And then it was like, no, just kidding.
21:07Nagy. So I don't like the vibes. But that's like, you know, it's Matt Nagy's history, Greg Roman, and the changing offense.
21:14I don't like that. But here's what I do not believe is compatible for Jackson Dart.
21:20I do not believe you can simultaneously run the way Jason wants him to run and play enough football to make you happy in fantasy.
21:28He had 10 games last year. He went to the medical tent in five of those 10 games.
21:34He has already gone to the medical tent in one game.
21:38You cannot be in a position where at any moment your starting quarterback runs with such reckless abandon, finishes runs with reckless
21:45abandon, and then in press conferences tells him that's just who I am.
21:49If you're not built like Cam Newton, I have concerns.
21:53Maybe he's got like a cappuccino machine in there or something.
21:57He loves the blue tent. In the medical tent.
22:00He's just a little pick-me-up. I think you either see a fundamental change in the amount that he runs, which is very,
22:07very possible, I think, with these old heads as head coach and offensive coordinator.
22:12I think you could see a change in offensive philosophy that is concerning and is going to require Dart to do some
22:19things we didn't get to see evidence of last year, which was be under center more often.
22:25Make the right read. Don't run the football. Don't run the football.
22:29Don't run the football. Let's go. Oh, wait. You got concussed.
22:33You come back. You have another five-game span. All of a sudden, you got 1.4 design runs per game.
22:39That's a big difference. You go down to 16.6 fantasy points.
22:43If I had to guess where he ends up this year, it's more in that range.
22:48It's 16 to 18 fantasy points a game. I don't think the upside is as high as Jason does because I think
22:55that there's something that's going to go wrong. and I won't get into just how horrible Matt Nagy is, but yes, I will.
23:03Brian Dable, by the way, after he was fired, the offensive system changed.
23:07I love Brian Dable. I think it's one of the reasons I've been in on the Titans making a progression forward.
23:15Brian Dable was the key to some of what Jackson Dart was having success with.
23:20Matt Nagy, man, he does not press the easy button in the modern NFL.
23:24Second lowest motion rate of any play caller. Third lowest play action drop back rate since 2021.
23:30So we're not going to pretend to run, right?
23:33Let's not do that. Let's not give an easy opportunity for your quarterback.
23:37Let's just do what no one else is doing anymore and put him in behind center.
23:43They ran a ton of no huddle last year.
23:46I think Dart was great with that. Dart's metrics and stuff, when they were going no huddle and hurrying up and playing
23:53some street ball, his numbers were elite. He was pretty much one of the best in the league in no huddle and
24:01one of the worst in the league in not no huddle.
24:04And I will say this. In huddle. You're going to.
24:08Here's the last piece of the puzzle. We are not huddling.
24:11The last piece of the puzzle is kind of wild, and I'm going to paint the picture for you.
24:18You're going to start with some matchups that are okay.
24:21They're favored in three of the first six. They have the Rams in week two in L.A.
24:27That's a tough one. But that's your acclimation to the new system.
24:31So how quickly does that happen? You go from week seven on.
24:35I don't know if there's a worse schedule. It's a gauntlet.
24:39You're in Houston. You're in Philadelphia. You're in Seattle.
24:42You're in Detroit. Detroit's defense should be injured by that point in the year.
24:46I mean, you are favored. They are favored in two of their final.
24:51What is that? The rest of the season, the final 10 games.
24:55I said the first six. So the final 11 games, they're favored in two.
24:59They got to play Cleveland. They got to play Jacksonville.
25:03They got to play San Francisco. I don't know.
25:06I am concerned with the hype. I think it's gotten out of control because we want it to happen.
25:12There are players that we just want to work.
25:15I think Travion's a guy we all want to work.
25:18I don't know if there's a better person in the NFL than Travion Henderson.
25:23If you've listened to his interviews or a more dedicated player.
25:27Just a stand-up guy. We want the faces of the NFL to be the faces of the NFL, and I just don't
25:34know if it's going to be easy. Calling this a bust pick is very realistic, I think.
25:40I mean, the idea that Jackson... First of all, all the reports out of camp have been that the offense has sucked.
25:47That's a good point. Everything has been like, they don't have it together.
25:52Even Matt Nagy came out and said, like, Jackson Dart's so talented, but he's really struggling.
25:57It's like, well, it's your fault. No, I have no doubt that Jackson Dart can bust and be terrible this year.
26:04I'm really in on Jackson Dart because I think, should it work, he is...
26:09If he's in the ninth round where I've seen him in plenty of drafts, should it work, he's one of only three
26:16quarterbacks in the league that I think can easily rush for over 700 yards.
26:21He's on a 17-game pace of about 700 yards last year in his rookie season.
26:26It's him, Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson. That's it. You know, and if you look at...
26:31Finish your thought and then we have to hit the stupid breaking news button again.
26:36Okay, all right. If you do look, I know it's like the injury risk is out there and he's not built like
26:44Josh Allen, but you look at Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, and Jackson Dart, and you got 6'4", 210, and Jaden Daniels, 210
26:51pounds, 6'2", 205, and Lamar Jackson, 6'2", 223 for Jackson Dart.
26:55So I do think he can... Everybody can get injured.
26:58Lamar's been injured. Daniels has been injured. I am in on taking this shot.
27:03What was his height weight? 6'2", 223 for Jackson Dart.
27:06So this is not bad. Did he seem that big?
27:09He didn't seem that... I mean, he didn't seem that big, but I don't know people's weight in person.
27:16I don't know. But I like the upside. I certainly could never...
27:20No one could argue that, like, he is as unguaranteed a success as possible.
27:25I'm just afraid you can't draft him and start him and be guaranteed to have a starter, and then you got to
27:32figure it out, which maybe that's worth it in the ninth.
27:36In the ninth, I mean, I like him, but at the end of the year, it's very easy that this could be like, oh, yeah, he failed.
27:45I won't hit the breaking news button, but I will tell you that Sam Laporta is now injured.
27:51Jason, cover your ears. Oh, that's my dude! Sam Laporta is out with a hip injury.
27:56My all-time favorite player. Well, Gino. Well, my second all-time favorite.
28:00Dan Campbell says he's not sure if the injury will go into the regular season.
28:05Man. So, not a growing. Dude, Jameson Williams. You guys don't...
28:09I know. Don't get me started on how much I want to...
28:13I'll let the people know. He's not a my guy.
28:16Because you're not... You didn't allow yourself. I would never do double, lying, same exact my guy.
28:22For example. Well, yours worked better. Kind of. I mean, the first...
28:26I mean, he was... The first half of the season last year was so bad that most people, like, moved on.
28:33But he finished pretty darn good. When Laporta went down...
28:36When Laporta went down, he was unbelievable. And if Laporta starts the season on the bench, this is an offense you want pieces of.
28:44I find myself way more like Andy this year on Jameson Williams.
28:48I want Jameson Williams on my team. He finished as a top 10 fantasy line.
28:53Oh, yeah. Also... And you're like, me? Me. First half.
28:57Yeah, I mean, he... He finished as a top 10, man.
29:00If the first half sucked, that means that he's winning championships.
29:04I mean, it's just like the truth series, though.
29:07It was the change of coaching. Yeah. I mean, it was when they did the offensive coordinator change and Laporta combined.
29:14But... I think if you were someone that had drafted him, I mean, up through week eight, you had, what, two playable games?
29:22Sure. Yeah. I'm just saying that you definitely helped people win.
29:25Yeah. They helped whoever's team they were on at the end of the year.
29:30Yes. That was like Chase Brown. Like Chase Brown.
29:33Like, you felt like you took a giant L on a My Guy last year because for the first six weeks, it
29:41was like, oh, man, what a loser. And then he was unbelievable.
29:45Yeah. I call that a win. I didn't realize that.
29:48I thought you moved off this bus pick. I did not know that you went forward with it.
29:54No. No, no, no. I very much... It's funny because...
29:57Let's make a trade on the show then. We might.
30:01I'm going to go make an offer. Yeah. Go on.
30:04Share your bust. Okay. So this bus pick was in there for...
30:08Don't share your bust. But go on. This pick was in here for a couple weeks now.
30:14And then we got news that I think made everybody think I was going to change my bus pick.
30:20I did. You did. Andy did. Then Kyle was giving me other options.
30:25I was like... So Kyle wanted you to do it too?
30:28Well, he just thought I would. And I was like, no, I don't want to change.
30:34I completely still believe this. And I'll explain my rationale here.
30:37My bus pick this year is Travis H. Chan Jr.
30:41Running back for the New Orleans Saints. The artist formerly known as Travis Etienne Jr.
30:46If you are... We know from the comments... Oh my gosh.
30:49That's what I'm going to call him from now on.
30:53The artist formerly known as Travis Etienne. There you go.
30:56Full time. That's fine. He wants to be A-chan.
30:59Yeah. So if you are coming back to fantasy football and you're like, why are you saying his name wrong?
31:06That's the French Creole pronunciation that he prefers. The commentators in the Hall of Fame game basically said we're going to call him that this year.
31:15So as the season goes on, you'll hear Travis H.
31:18Chan Jr. It stinks only because there's an A-chan.
31:21Yeah. If it was someone else that was unique, you'd be like...
31:25But anyways. Let me read you a Slack channel message that we sent last night.
31:30I said... We were like... Mike's like, hey, are you still sticking with Travis H.
31:35Chan Jr. Is your bus? And I said, I wonder if he'll change that.
31:40And then you got tagged and you said, yes, I am.
31:44Well, I was saying yes to Mike's. The first question of, are you still sticking with him?
31:49Yes, I am. So I see how you see it both ways.
31:53Here's the thing about the artist formerly known as Travis Etienne.
31:57There are three reasons why I don't like him as a pick where he's going right now.
32:03One is the change in the offensive expectation, right?
32:06He was on the Jags last year, which was a top offense.
32:10And he's switching to the Saints, which hopefully can be a better offense.
32:14But they're obviously a much worse offense last year than they were.
32:18And as far as the offensive line, it's a downgrade on the offensive line.
32:23Second is the way he scored fantasy points last year.
32:26And then there are some specifics on the tips and tricks we brought up yesterday that you brought up, Mike, that really speak against Travis Etienne this year.
32:36Eight champs. Eight champs. This year, yeah. Okay, so here's the thing.
32:40The first point. Oh, you made me a live offer?
32:43No, don't worry about it. You're talking. Okay. How he scored last year, he's not ever been a very efficient back.
32:50I don't think he's been okay for fantasy. He scored a lot of touchdowns.
32:55But he hasn't really been a very efficient back.
32:58And inside the red zone, he was downright horrific.
33:01Inside the 10-yard line and inside the 5-yard line last year, 10-zone attempts, which these are money in fantasy.
33:07He had 26 carries inside the 10. That turned into 4 touchdowns.
33:11A 15% rate. That is abysmal. He had 12 of those 26 inside the 5, and those turned into 2 touchdowns.
33:18The only running backs last year that were worse in those metrics were weirdly Saquon Barkley and Woody Marks.
33:25He was not good. Where his touchdowns came from were receiving touchdowns.
33:29He had 6 receiving touchdowns, and yet he only caught 36 passes.
33:33How rare is that? He joined 2014 Ahmad Bradshaw and 2018 Cream Hunt as the only running backs over the last 25
33:40years with 6 or more touchdowns on less than 40 receptions.
33:4443% of his fantasy points came from those touchdowns.
33:47That is not repeatable. 5 of those receiving touchdowns were inside the red zone.
33:52I mean, how rare is that? Well, he had zero receiving touchdowns inside the red zone for his entire career.
33:58So now you've got a guy who kind of was propped up from rare touchdowns that aren't very repeatable, wasn't efficient on the ground.
34:06He's changing teams to a worse team. And my biggest argument against him for most of this offseason has been, I'm sorry,
34:14but Alvin Kamara's going to be involved. But Jason!
34:17Yeah, but Jason, he's... Alvin Kamara's injured! Yeah, he is.
34:20At most, Alvin Kamara, at this point in the timeline, says he could be ready week one.
34:26But let's say he misses the first two weeks of the season, okay?
34:30He's not back till week three. When he gets back, he will be eating into the pass-catching work of Travis H.A.
34:37Jr., which is where he made his fantasy points last year.
34:41Those first two weeks that he might be alone, you want to be on the road against the Detroit Lions who have,
34:48when they're healthy, one of the best run defenses in the league?
34:52Or do you want to be on the road against the Baltimore Ravens?
34:57Both games, you are more than touchdown underdogs. That's not good for running back.
35:02Kamara's going to be eating jello at the retirement home in week two.
35:06Yeah, I mean, I'm just saying, by the time you get to any good schedule...
35:11So early underdogs, that was a tip and trick from Mike yesterday.
35:15When you're an early underdog on a bad team, it doesn't usually work for fantasy.
35:20I think that how he scored fantasy points was not great.
35:24There's no reason for him to be on your team.
35:27I sent you a trade. Well, I think he's going to be great.
35:31So we'll see if the value matches. Nope, nope, the rubber meets the road right here.
35:37Look, I think that you can make... I don't think you can make an argument that anything you said was incorrect.
35:44I think the only argument that I have is the same sort of argument I feel towards Kenneth Walker.
35:50The market and the teams that I trust, the play caller that I love, they put their money where their mouth was.
35:58Four-year, $52 million deal. Ken Walker has a ton of crappy efficiency metrics in different areas.
36:03This dude dances behind the line of scrimmage and gets caught back there.
36:07I just love the fact that they decided to make him their franchise identity at running back.
36:13So I'm in on that. I do love that.
36:16And I love Kellen Moore offenses, especially for quarterbacks and wide receivers.
36:20One of the weird things about Kellen Moore's offense, though, they have routinely ranked among the bottom of running back target shares over the last four years.
36:2926th, 26th, 20th, and 27th. So it's like... And honestly, that's smart.
36:33That's wise. Throwing to a running back is less efficient than throwing to a wide receiver or a tight end, just statistically speaking.
36:41Have a fast pace of play. Like if I was an offensive coordinator, have a fast pace of play.
36:47Throw to your wide receivers as much as you can.
36:51That's how I play. And that's how Kellen Moore plays.
36:54But yeah, I do love the investment. And I will say there is another metric of a certain barometer of money given
37:01to running backs in the offseason where if you are over it, you usually work.
37:07And the artist formerly known as Travis Etienne is over that mark.
37:11So you... Rumble-aya. Yeah. You've got both sides of it.
37:14I'm more weary. And I will look at the trade-off.
37:17It means that you're convicted about it if Kamara goes out and you still feel like...
37:23I mean, I got a trade-offer from you yesterday.
37:26Was it good? I don't remember. Oh, you don't remember the offer?
37:30Oh, no, that was good. Why didn't you accept it?
37:33Wasn't that for... That was for this dude. Yeah, but it wasn't a good offer.
37:38It was, too. I ran like five mock drafts, dude.
37:41You hate him. The guy... Okay. I hate him if I don't take your crappy offer.
37:47All right. Chuba Hubbard, Mike. That's your boss? Sure.
37:50Oh, my gosh. Okay. I'll just submit my comments.
37:53He says this was a crappy offer. He says I made a crappy offer.
37:58His offer was the 301 in our league for Travis Etienne Jr.
38:02301 in a three-keeper league. That's basically the sixth rounder.
38:05A sixth rounder for... Yeah, yeah. He's going in the fourth.
38:09So, no. I will decline. I have run a tremendous amount of...
38:13So, Bashaw Tootin goes around. I mean, is Bashaw Tootin versus Travis Etienne?
38:17Bashaw Tootin will not be there at the 301.
38:20Well, Jadarian Price will be. No, he won't. Oh, okay.
38:23So, I mean, I... I know what you're saying, but I know our league and how we...
38:29I mean, you know how we draft. Bashaw Tootin and the running backs go up in our league of record.
38:36I have taken... You love Etienne. I've taken every opportunity that has ever been presented in front of me to either dump
38:43on or bet against Travis Etienne Jr. To the point of just a truly horrific outcome last year.
38:49Look, if you recall, there were co-starters on the Jacksonville Jaguars last year.
38:54And we were all taking sides. And then they traded one of the guys to be a backup in Philadelphia.
39:00I forgot. And then it really worked out for Travis.
39:04But I'm with Andy on the volume. I think the volume will make him okay.
39:09And I like the Saints offense, so I don't think that he's a special player at the running back position, but I
39:16think he will end up being okay. Hey. My bus pick here, currently running back 28 going in the seventh round.
39:23So this isn't like a huge investment, but I'm just putting the foot down.
39:28I'm putting the flag in the ground. It's Chuba Hubbard.
39:31I want absolutely nothing to do with him. He is a full fade for me at this point with what's going on in Carolina.
39:39Recalling last year, weeks one through four, he was getting an elite work percentage.
39:44He was at 29, the work percentage, which is targets and attempts.
39:48He was at 29%. 30% is elite. So the volume was completely there.
39:52In that time period, I will say, he did not force a single missed tackle as a runner.
39:59So this is a guy that's just voluming his way to fantasy value.
40:03Then he loses his job to Rico Dowdle. He had no runs of 15 or more yards last year.
40:09Like his efficiency metrics are, they're red. He had one total carry inside the five because they didn't trust him.
40:16That job went to Rico Dowdle. And we've also seen Jonathan Brooks.
40:20I struggle with Brooks' ADP, what is going on, because he is right next to Chuba Hubbard in ADP.
40:26I've seen leagues where Brooks gets drafted in front of Hubbard.
40:30But it's just pointing out that Chuba's at the tail end of the dead zone for running backs, which, Jay, you talked about.
40:38You're at the end, man. This is the deadest of the dead zone.
40:42I want nothing to do with that situation. And if you remember, somehow the Panthers, despite being under .500, they were first place.
40:50So they get a first place schedule. Warren Sharp has them ranked as the third hardest schedule for 2026.
40:56And to piggyback on my tip yesterday of teams that start as dogs, well, three of the first four games, they are underdogs.
41:04They are underdogs on the road against Atlanta. That's how down bad the Carolina Panthers are at this moment.
41:10So people are drafting Chuba, and I just want absolutely nothing to do with it.
41:15Yeah, we had the Jonathan Brooks conversations earlier, too, and we have all of our bus picks, our consensus bus picks, in
41:23the UDKUltimateDraftKit.com if you want to get in on that before your draft.
41:27We'll take a break, and we'll come back with value picks.
41:31Values. All right, value picks. I'm going to take a layup here.
41:35I think, genuinely, all three of our value picks are fan-freaking-tastic.
41:39I think they're layups, and they're mispriced players in fantasy football.
41:42I really do. It's Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
41:47Abuka, whether he's there or not, I don't like that he's dealing with the toe injury.
41:52That's going to add to the equation in terms of, like, Chris Godwin is the exact kind of name that never moves
42:00up, no matter how much you talk about him, has a history of productivity, will be sneaky good from a PPR perspective.
42:07I mean, we talk about Keenan Allen leading the Chargers and receptions at 34 years old last year.
42:13Chris Godwin has a connection with Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield is back and is healthy.
42:18You have a lot of question marks with Hurst, McMillan, Tess Johnson.
42:22None of those guys' profile is high volume. What's your face here, Jay?
42:26Dude. But Emeka Abuka being hurt doesn't really even bother me.
42:30I like Godwin. Godwin on ESPN? He's in the 13th round.
42:3413.04 in full PPR. What are we doing? Yeah, to me, it's just a layup situation.
42:39He was not one of the names I mentioned in the 10 oldest players, right?
42:44I mean, you have a... He's close. He feels older.
42:48He's 30 years old. And yet he signed a three-year extension last March.
42:52I mean, this team has him as part of the plans.
42:56You know, he dealt with injuries. Injuries are going to be a concern for players that get older, and especially at wide receivers.
43:03But he's not in that group yet. When he came back, he had some high target finishes.
43:09To me, this is just like... Most of the time, I say you want to take high upside shots at the back of your draft.
43:17This is one of those stabilizer players that I think you can start any week you need to.
43:24Might start more often than you think. And has been a standout at OTA.
43:28So there's really been no concerns around Godwin, but not enough publicity.
43:32So to me, my value pick is Chris Godwin.
43:35I'm in. I think Chris Godwin is a solid pick for...
43:39I think he has a lot going for him.
43:42And you can even say Abuka is the... We get to the end of the year.
43:47Abuka is clearly the number one. Okay. Fine. Like, Baker Mayfield can give you enough production that you have two contributors...
43:54Absolutely. ...in the receiving game. Like, and of the other players, yeah, but your chips have to go to Chris Godwin.
44:01Godwin does not need Emeka Abuka to be injured to be good.
44:06At all. He's been good with Mike Evans on the field, and Mike Evans is gone.
44:11I mean, it's... Where he's going right now, like...
44:14I totally understand when you're older, you don't have the upside of being like, oh, this guy could be a top seven wide receiver in fantasy.
44:23But, like, he could... Here's what he could be.
44:26An absolute every single week must-start wide receiver two type of player.
44:30He could... And that is so valuable in fantasy, and to be basically a free square ADP-wise.
44:35I can't believe that ESPN ADP. 13th round? Yeah.
44:38I mean, I think it's just one of those...
44:41Like, people are going to take Diggs ahead of him in drafts.
44:46People are going to take Keenan Allen ahead of him in some drafts.
44:50That's going to happen. Yeah. Because Chris Godwin is just quietly, quietly there.
44:54Well, he was injured last year, and I think that's a big part of it.
44:59People just think he's injured and done. And we're tired of it.
45:03But genuinely... It is two years in a row that he played seven and nine games.
45:09Camp reports have said not just that he's been good, but that, like, his explosion's back.
45:14And he's just really explosive. Even if you get half a year with Chris Godwin for that price, I don't care.
45:21That's fine. My value is so weirdly underpriced. If I describe the player before telling you the player, it makes no sense.
45:29What if I had a third-year quarterback who has literally scored the fourth most fantasy points through two years ever?
45:35Last year, he led the league in passing attempts.
45:38And this year, he's got all of his wide receivers back, including a high-drafted wide receiver two last year who's been making buzz.
45:46But then they trade for a star wide receiver to add to the court.
45:51And his first year was the quarterback six. His second...
45:54I'm sorry, the quarterback seven. The second year, he was quarterback six.
45:58And so now, all of that coming together, he's being drafted at quarterback 15.
46:03What? Bo Nix. Bo Nix is... Boom shakalaka! I mean, why is he being drafted over double the amount of positions that he's ever finished?
46:11Like, he's never finished half as bad as quarterback 15.
46:15They add Jalen Waddell. They're on a good offense.
46:18But Jason... Yes. He got hurt last year and their schedule...
46:21In the playoffs, he did. Their schedule's really crappy.
46:24So, a crappy schedule is absolutely true in the sense of difficulty, but it isn't necessarily a bad schedule if he's good.
46:32He also sometimes seems drunk. What? He does. When he's outside the pocket, sometimes he seems like he's out of drink.
46:39He rolls out and he's like... I feel like sometimes he looks at the crowd and he's like, check this out.
46:46I genuinely... And then you're like, oh, not even close.
46:49I genuinely thought that what you were saying was some interview thing.
46:53I'm like, I don't remember him seeing drunk. No, him on the field.
46:58That would be us during our show. So, the opening schedule...
47:01The opening schedule. He's got to play the Chiefs.
47:04Great team. They're probably not favored. He's got to play the Jaguars.
47:08Great team. He's got to play the Rams. Great team.
47:12He's got to play the 49ers. Great team. He's got to play the Chargers.
47:16Great team. I get that those are decent defenses.
47:19He's a good guy for me solely because of the first six-game schedule.
47:24Yes, he's been on our board as a my guy.
47:27I'm so in on Bo Nix. And I didn't know some of those numbers you just shared.
47:33But the beginning of the season... For some reason, there's doubt about Denver in general.
47:38Right? I'm just stating... Well, I get it because there were games last year...
47:43No, there were games last year where you're like, why is their offense so bad?
47:48There were... They played the Raiders and they scored 12 points or something silly?
47:52Yeah, didn't they lose to them in week one or something?
47:56That was the Pats. Oh, the Patriots. Well, what's the divisional odds, too?
48:00They are third highest. Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders. My argument...
48:04Chargers? On these... Yeah. Plus 160. Excuse me, I have to...
48:07Chargers are second. I have to visit someone real quick.
48:11Chiefs plus 160. Chargers plus 190. Broncos plus 225.
48:14A lot of times... That's wild. ...when you are playing against another good team...
48:19If the Broncos are a very good team... If Bo Nix is a good quarterback...
48:24Then you actually want games like the Chiefs. Like the Chargers.
48:27Like the Broncos. Like the Niners. Those games could end up where the quarterbacks go tit for tat...
48:33And it's over 50 points scored. Yes, they might be not favored in the game.
48:38And you go, oh, for the first six weeks they're underdogs.
48:42Being an underdog isn't always a problem. Much more so for running backs.
48:46But for a quarterback where you've got to keep up...
48:50Great. Because they've got a great defense. So you want them to play against teams that are going to score a lot.
48:57So I think he's just... Right now, if you're in a super flex league...
49:02He is just so misplaced. How about you pass on Jackson Dart and take Bo Nix?
49:07Sure. I'd be happy to. If I'm in the...
49:10Often I am waiting for Dart in the ninth...
49:13And someone takes him before me. Bo Nix is a great consolation prize.
49:18I have no problem with that. Oh, this is a breaking news.
49:22I had no clue you liked this dude, Mike.
49:25Your value pick. I love this player and... People are coming back.
49:29And yet, I think he remains an absolute value in drafts.
49:32You are, in fact, the highest on this player.
49:36You did it! Hey! We found one! We did it!
49:39I do like him. I don't know how you were lowest on every other player in the NFL...
49:45I don't know. ...but you're the highest on this guy in our rankings.
49:49It is... Mr. Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens who...
49:53Did he get the mister when he collected that check?
49:56Yeah, I was going to say, we're going to start at the top.
50:00The dude is hashtag good. Baltimore thinks so to the tune of $104 million guaranteed.
50:05All right, now that we got that out of the way.
50:09Let's... The career... The trajectory of his career. Fantasy finishes.
50:1230. 22. 7. His consistency ranking. 29. 25. 16.
50:15That one I care a lot more about, really.
50:19His target share. 24%. 25%. And then 28% of Baltimore's targets last year.
50:23We've... We talk about it all the time. Targets are the stickiest stat.
50:27Like, touchdowns come and go. Targets are... Forever. And looking at the way that the draft is going, look, everyone else with
50:35a target share of 27% or higher is being drafted as a top 12 wide receiver besides Garrett Wilson and Zay Flowers.
50:42Those are the only two guys not in the top 12 who last year had at least a 27% target share or higher.
50:50You have Lamar Jackson. Yes, it was a down year for him.
50:54I'm throwing that in the garbage. Lamar Jackson still remains an elite quarterback in the NFL, in my opinion.
51:00Since 2010, 30 wide receivers were drafted in the first round that saw 300 or more targets through the first three years.
51:08They averaged a touchdown every 18.3. So, Flowers' touchdown expectation, he's more at...
51:12He should be at 19 instead of 14. Like, I'm saying, I think there is some touchdown regression that can happen for Lamar.
51:20It's not the same system. Like, if you said, hey...
51:23Positive regression. Yeah, yeah. In a positive direction. If everything were exactly the same, maybe I'd have less hope for Zay Flowers
51:30pulling in seven or more touchdowns on the season.
51:33Are they going to be... Are they long ones?
51:36Look, this is what I'm saying. If we don't know exactly what's going to...
51:41What will change. But we know there will be a big change.
51:45What won't is he's number one on the team.
51:48And the separation between him and the rest of everyone else on this squad as a skill position player, I think it is a massive, massive gap.
51:57I mean, we're talking about Jacoby Lane as the hotness of a fourth-round rookie.
52:02I was going to say, we know what Bateman is, so Bateman's not a threat to Flowers.
52:08We know what Andrews is at this stage of his career.
52:11They don't have another up-and-coming tight end. That's actually a concern for the Baltimore...
52:16Like, if you go beyond Andrews, it's a bit of a concern.
52:20Yeah, and they lost some offensive line stuff as well.
52:24But, like, Jacoby Lane is the next possible contributor in the passing game, and you can't imagine Jacoby Lane threatening a $104 million man.
52:32No, which says to me, he might be a 30% target share player this year.
52:37That's not out of... Like, that's not a wild thing to project.
52:41I'm not going to go that high, but that would not be a shocking thing at the end of the year for
52:48what they invested in him and what the rest of the team is.
52:52Look, the books still love Ravens. They're favorites in each of their first seven games.
52:57And yes, we do. I want the Ravens to be favorites.
53:01I want them to know that they're going to go out and they're going to score a bunch of points.
53:08So, they're tied with the Bills for second in Super Bowl odds.
53:12The Ravens are a solid squad, and it's just...
53:15It's Zay Flowers here. The targets are going to be there, and Flowers is sitting in a range that is not with the top tier guys.
53:24The Ravens are currently the number one team in terms of odds to win the AFC title.
53:29There you go. That plus 470. Really? Oh, they passed the Bills?
53:33Bills plus 510. Sometimes those numbers, Mike, when it's Super Bowl versus AFC title are somehow different, even though they're the same thing.
53:41Tomorrow we have a mock draft mayhem episode on the show.
53:45We're going to be talking through a lot of great stuff next week, including players we're embarrassed to love.
53:51Mike is not embarrassed of Zay Flowers. He is proud of it.
53:55And then we'll get into some mailbag. We will do the My Guys next week.
54:00And like I said, I'm going to sneak three names into the UDK.
54:05Somebody over there remind me to do that right after the show so that you guys have a little teaser.
54:11Don't tell anybody about it. We got the show on Wednesday.
54:15And don't forget about... You can tell them that.
54:18The Megalobowl. Go get in there. Megalobowl.com. The time is now.
54:22Drafts from September 4th through the 8th. The day before kickoff.
54:25A bunch of different times you can choose from.
54:29You'll get placed in a league. We have really refined the rules over the past few years.
54:34We've got double the amount of admin commissioners this year to make sure that these leagues are run exceptionally well.
54:41And let me tell you, the amount of hours and hours and hours that go into making sure these drafts go off
54:48correctly, that there aren't tanking or collusion or problems in these leagues.
54:52And it's just a lot of work goes into them.
54:56They're very, very fun to play. They're very fun.
54:59Everybody who's in them loves them. And they play year after year after year.
55:03And I enjoy it. I enjoy meeting Foot Clan members in it.
55:07Yeah. So go there right now. Megalobowl.com. We will say goodbye for today.
55:12But we'll say hello again tomorrow because we have another episode coming your way.
55:17Some mock draft mayhem. We'll talk to you then.
55:20Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
55:24Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.
