0:00What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon. Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast.
0:04And it is, oh baby, it's a hell of a day to talk ball because we are in person in our lovely New York City studio.
0:11And joining me to talk a little ball, it is my good friends, Justin Boone, Josh Norris.
0:15Boone, what's going on, buddy? How you doing? Man, we're in New York.
0:19We're feeling good. And we're only a couple weeks away from week one.
0:22We're actually going to be able to start reacting to real football.
0:26Because people have been massively overreacting to preseason football and to training camp videos and injuries.
0:30So I'm excited to get this thing going. Josh, do you feel uncomfortable at all that Hayden is not next to you?
0:36It's fair. Are you kind of a lost puppy in this situation?
0:39We know Hayden showed up with a turtleneck on CNN.
0:42So I felt like I could, you know, step out into the sunlight for the first time in weeks.
0:47And join you guys in an actual studio outside of my basement.
0:50Yeah, unfortunately it's a little cloudy out there. So we've got to work on your tan a little bit later at a different point.
0:57It's always a work in progress. Always a work in progress.
1:00I'm there with you. Boone, you said we're only a couple weeks away from real football.
1:04Actually, when the people are listening to this, happy Labor Day folks.
1:07Because you guys are getting this with real football right around the corner.
1:11But as Boone peeled back the curtain, we're pre-taping this bad boy.
1:14Okay, we pre-recorded this show so that you guys could still get some goodness over the Labor Day weekend.
1:19And we could maybe have real lives. Actual conversation face-to-face?
1:22Well, yes, that too. On a fancy football podcast?
1:25But theoretically, when you guys are listening to this, I am hoping that I am like three glasses of wine deep right now.
1:31At a vineyard somewhere. With my wife and my dogs.
1:34Because those three ain't gonna see any of me for the next few months.
1:37Because football season is right around the corner. And thank God it is.
1:41But it's a little annual tradition for us on this Labor Day show.
1:45We do our bold predictions. So the boys and I have 12 bold predictions for you to kick off the fantasy football season here.
1:51Plus our 2026 fantasy football MVP. So no pressure.
1:53This is a big show here today. Again, this is pre-recorded.
1:56So if anything maybe sounds a little weird. Nothing will be.
1:59Nothing happens from now until we go off. Nothing happens at all.
2:03Just give us some grace with that. Because, you know, we've done a lot for you people.
2:07Okay, we've done a lot of shows for you people over the last few months.
2:11And let's get it started here. Bold prediction number one.
2:14Josh, because you are the new man here among the Yahoo bros.
2:17What's your, you get to start. What's your first bold prediction?
2:20Ken Walker III should have been a first round pick all along.
2:24You know, we always talk about how teams are honest with us through their draft picks and through their wallets.
2:29Ken Walker III was the only addition that the Kansas City Chiefs made on offense this entire offseason.
2:34And why? Well, they want to totally change how they run the football and create explosive runs.
2:39I mean, this Chiefs offense has had high success rate in terms of runs.
2:42They're hitting singles and doubles. And that was good enough to win some games.
2:46Most recently, not enough to change the course of a four-quarter action in terms of winning the game at the end.
2:52I mean, they were 20th in explosive carries last season.
2:55They ranked 10th in rush yards before contact per attempt.
2:57Then 32nd in rush yards after contact. So the perfect man for this job is Ken Walker III.
3:02We know that any time in the 26 games that he's played over 60% of snaps, he has averaged over 17.5 fancy points.
3:09But Boone, I'll tell you, I think he's going to average over 60% of snaps in every single game this season.
3:14And I really do think we'll look back and say, oh, yeah, one of the best running backs in the league that
3:20we saw in the playoffs in the Super Bowl last year, now going to Kansas City Chiefs.
3:25That was pretty good. We should have taken him in the top 12 overall picks.
3:29Yeah. I mean, Harmon knows how I feel about this.
3:32We talked about him on an episode, you know, a few weeks ago, just going over my league-winning picks.
3:37I had him in there, but I was hesitant to do so because I had him in there last year, Josh.
3:43Like, I knew the talent was there. We knew the possibility was there.
3:46And now, finally, there's no one in his way.
3:49There's no Zach Sharman that's going to be there to steal work.
3:52He could totally just step into the kind of volume that we saw down the stretch when he was averaging almost 130
3:58scrimmage yards per game over those last six contests.
4:00Like, this guy could absolutely be one of the top backs in fantasy.
4:04And, Matt, maybe I'm the boy who cried wolf because last year I was telling people to draft Ken Walker III.
4:10However, we can, you know, zoom out, look at the actual football when he was given the rock and say, oh, that
4:16probably would have worked out for us if when they got to the 20-yard line, the 10-yard line, they didn't sub out K9.
4:22And instead, they put in Zach Charbonnet. It's just amazing to me.
4:25Like, right now on Yahoo is going 15th overall.
4:28In consensus rings out there from, like, 70 experts, he is the 21st overall player.
4:32Like, that's nuts to me. I would rank him 13th and I would draft him all the way up to, like, the 10th or 11th pick right now.
4:39Yeah, man. Listen, I get it. Before we go any further on the Kenneth Walker stuff, I should have mentioned off the
4:45top, but I was just so excited to get into the takes here, the rules on bold predictions.
4:50Because there are some rules here on bold predictions.
4:53And this is less about us and more about remember the accountability out there for bold predictions.
4:57If you miss on a bold prediction, remember, it's just a bold prediction.
5:01It's not supposed to be completely accurate. It's a bold prediction.
5:04If you get it right, though, if you get it in the neighborhood of being correct, you get to victory lap that.
5:10If you get it completely correct, like I did when I said Jackson Smith and Jigba was going to lead the NFL
5:16in receiving yards last Super Bowl on Football 301, you get to say it at least two times every month before the next season starts.
5:23So this is my one. I've got two more here at some point.
5:26But anyways, those are the rules on bold predictions.
5:28Got it. My question, Josh, is how do we know if this is a correct bold prediction when you say he should
5:34have been a first round pick all along? So give us some parameters on what does a successful season look like for
5:40Kenneth Walker in your bold prediction universe. You know, glad I'm prepared for this.
5:44So there are six running backs going in the first round of Yahoo right now.
5:48Yes. And so he just has to finish as a top six running back in points per game this season.
5:54So he's got to outproduce some of these names.
5:56Outproduce one of Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, B.
6:00John Robinson, Jameer Gibbs. Or again, there are six being selected in round one.
6:03Wouldn't that mean if he was like the running back six or running back five, then yeah, he should have been a first round pick.
6:10One of the things that I think people underrate with him, too, is the pass catching ability.
6:15Like for a long time, I think people kind of looked at him like a guy who couldn't do that.
6:20Last year, average three receptions per game. And those six outings that we're talking about down the stretch, it's a 51 catch
6:26pace over the course of a full season. The year before, it was even more.
6:30It was over four catches per game in his 11 contest.
6:33That's a 71 catch pace, right? So he has that in his bag, and that's what could really unlock him and get
6:39him up into the top five or so. Yeah, listen, I'm in on Kenneth Walker as well.
6:44I think we were talking about this beforehand. I've like flipped him, Derrick Henry, and Justin Jefferson somewhere between 12 and 14
6:50overall in my rankings for a long time here.
6:52The pass catching, I think, will be real in Kansas City this year.
6:56And Josh, like I think Kenneth Walker was brought in here to be a true change force for this offense.
7:01A franchise changer. A franchise changer as they are, I think, changing their stripes a little bit on offense.
7:06Like I wish they had gotten out of the same schematic family, you know, maybe for the offensive coordinator play call higher with Eric Biennium there.
7:14But at the same time, I mean, they just desperately need someone like this.
7:17And I think Kenneth Walker also desperately needed the change of scenery.
7:21Like, I think he was pretty, I've just heard people talk about this, he was a good soldier all throughout last year,
7:27but was pretty frustrated that he ever got to be that guy.
7:30He was pretty clearly going to be that guy in Kansas City.
7:33I know you chart all of these Chiefs wide receivers.
7:36This has a huge impact on the passing game, too.
7:39So, in terms of, they have lived in the short run-after-catch pass world for a very long time.
7:43A lot of the downfield stuff has not worked out.
7:46Patrick Mahomes has somehow become one of the least accurate downfield passers in the league a bit too often.
7:51And so, if Kenneth Walker here can change the math on the back end, in terms of, you know, forcing single high
7:57in coverages, then maybe we get back to some of the days of, oh, now we get the intermediate and downfield portion.
8:03Even if, you know, they have many, many, many of the similar and same wide receivers still running out.
8:09Very nice. Also, the offensive line for the Chiefs is pretty strong, right?
8:12Awesome. Our guy Nate Tice had him in the top 10.
8:15Brandon Thorne established the run. He's got him in the top 10.
8:18So, that's just another little feather in Walker's camp.
8:21No question. And just last thing to put on top, the cherry on top here for Kenneth Walker.
8:26I've got my maybe hesitations with Eric Biennemi as a pass game designer.
8:29I think he's objectively one of the best running back coaches in the NFL.
8:33I mean, I think it's not a coincidence that DeAndre Swift is coming off maybe his best and most consistent season as a pro.
8:40And Swift was a guy that's like, he bounces too much.
8:43He doesn't read things out. And I think you could kind of lobby some of the same criticisms that Kenneth Walker.
8:48I'm really interested to see what that marriage looks like by the end of the season.
8:53All right. Let's get to the next bold prediction here, Boone.
8:56One of those running backs that Josh mentioned, one of the top running backs.
8:59This is your first bold prediction here. Yeah. And saying good things about the guy that's going 101 is a little silly.
9:05Like, how bold can we go with it? Right.
9:08That's what I was trying to figure out because I really believe this is the year for Jameer Gibbs where we just
9:14see him go to an absolute astronomical level. Right.
9:16So, for me, it's Jameer Gibbs is going to break the single season scrimmage yards record.
9:21That is over 2,500 yards, 2,509 yards set by Chris Johnson.
9:24I just see so many things setting up in his favor this year.
9:27We know the talents there. We know how good he is.
9:30David Montgomery finally out of the way now. And this kind of unlocks him and puts him into that zone where he
9:36could just go completely nuclear this season. I think that's really important.
9:39And also, we're at the Kareem Hunt visiting phase of trying to find someone to go in the backfield with him.
9:45Right? It's not Isaiah Pacheco's been injured. Sione Vocky's more of a special teams guy.
9:49They don't have that other option. And if it ends up being Kareem Hunt, I'm not that worried about maybe he'll steal some touchdowns.
9:56But in terms of yards, they are going to just absolutely unleash Gibbs this year.
10:00And we're hearing him talk about how, you know, he's getting himself ready for it.
10:04He's training for that bigger workload. Dan Campbell talking about how he is going to be a bell cow this season.
10:10He can do it, right? He can absolutely do it.
10:12And then everything else involved with it. The Lions are favored in 14 of their 17 games this season.
10:18There's going to be a lot of positive game script.
10:20They have the easiest fantasy running back schedule this year.
10:23Last year, it was the hardest fantasy running back schedule.
10:26So we're going to the complete opposite end of the list.
10:29Just everything setting up in my mind for him to have one of these monster, monster campaigns.
10:33And the only question is, how far can it go?
10:36Before I throw to you, Josh, I do love that one, we are tempting fate with the Kareem Hunt mentioned here.
10:42If he's signed with the team by now, I do think there's some analysis to do about that.
10:47And Nate and I actually talked about that on a previous show, how Kareem Hunt could kind of impact the backfield rotation here.
10:53But it doesn't impact your goal prediction at all.
10:55Because if Kareem Hunt is there, he's going to be annoying and take some touchdowns away, which is going to bother people.
11:01That's going to bother people that took him number one overall in fantasy.
11:05He's going to be there to take some pass protection reps away.
11:08Because as Nate has brought up many times, Gibbs' pass protection is a little shaky.
11:12You know, that's maybe the weakest part of his game.
11:15But it doesn't impact those yards from scrimmage, baby.
11:17So I like the, I'm maybe galaxy-braining your bold prediction here.
11:20But I'm just saying, if Kareem Hunt has signed, I don't think that stands in the way here.
11:25Matt, I'll spin it for those touchdowns. Because I just look back to last season, which was Jameer Gibbs' best year, right?
11:31He owned 57.3% of the Lions' carries inside of the red zone.
11:35That was good for nine touchdowns. If you travel down to Dave Montgomery, he also had, you know, 33 carries inside the red zone for six touchdowns.
11:42So, like, even, I think they could lean on Jameer Gibbs because they have said that they are willing to do that
11:48more so in recent years than they did during his rookie year.
11:51And it's totally fine maybe if he's not 245 pounds like Kareem Hunt might be at this point.
11:56But, I mean, if you even take 20 of the carries that Dave Montgomery got in the red zone last year and
12:02impart those onto Jameer Gibbs, then he, you know, ties CMC last year in terms of the vast majority and the most touches of any running back.
12:09So, like, touchdowns we absolutely love on top of the yards.
12:12And I can see a pathway where it goes in that direction as he breaks fancy football this year.
12:18When you mentioned the size thing, too, in terms of the top six scrimmage yard seasons ever, three of those guys were
12:24205 pounds or less, including Chris Johnson. What's the record again?
12:27Right. The scrimmage yard record? 2,509 yards. Now, he's flirted with 2,000 yards in the last couple of years.
12:32Hasn't quite got there. But, again, was still sharing with Montgomery to an extent.
12:36And we've seen other guys kind of go after it, too, right?
12:39John Robinson last year had almost 2,300 yards. Saquon Barkley, almost 2,300 yards the year before.
12:43So, it's not like, you know, NFL's changing and we don't have guys that are threatening that record.
12:48I think he's going to be the one this year.
12:51Now, the only caveat I will say is that, you know, we found out this year Chris Johnson battling ALS.
12:56Yeah. You know, we're wishing him the best. And, you know, in that battle, could we see a scenario where Gibbs is
13:02actually getting close to this record and out of respect kind of they take the foot off the gas?
13:07Maybe things through it all. But I'm just saying.
13:10Every possible outcome here. I'm giving myself outs just in case he comes close but doesn't quite get there.
13:15Remember the rule of bold prediction. If he comes close, if he's second, if he's second in yards, you get to take a victory lap.
13:22All right? Those are the rules. So, we worked offensive lines a big deal here too.
13:26Like last season, that was, I think, the core reason why the lines kind of took some steps back.
13:31But then you spend a first round pick on Blake Miller.
13:34Hopefully, Cade Mays is somewhat okay after this injury.
13:37But they even, you know, tried to find some depth going up there and trading for Juice Scruggs and, you know, signing Ben Barge and all this stuff.
13:44So, we know that at some point this season, your best five offensive linemen do not start out there.
13:50They are injured. And so, the Lions, a couple years ago when Ben Johnson was the play caller, won the best in the league.
13:56And they're trying to get there, once again, I think this year.
13:59And that obviously impacts Mike Jameer Gibbs. And I really think that the petsing higher is mostly about the run game.
14:05Yeah. Fixing the run game here as opposed to, like, changing anything in the passing game.
14:09I think that will be pretty static of what we've seen in Detroit.
14:13I just can't say this enough. I think the Lions are going to be one of the right answer offenses here.
14:19So, I mean, there's a reason Gibbs is going number one overall.
14:22There's a reason I think this prediction can get pretty close.
14:25I know. Well, I'm assuming that you think the gap then from the 101 and the 102 between Jameer Gibbs and B.
14:31John Robinson isn't just one pick. That it's like a vast, vast canyon.
14:34Yeah. It's this prediction is basically like, congrats if you have the 101 because you're getting the player this year.
14:40What could go wrong? I mean, that was exactly what I thought when you said this is just like, I think universally consensus.
14:46There's almost no discussion anymore between anyone about like it's Gibbs 101.
14:49Well, we all watched Tua in the preseason. And, you know, Michael Penix is coming off injuries and that's who you're attached to if you're B.
14:56John Robinson. Listen, I get it. I'm not actually arguing the take.
15:00I'm on board with the take. I'm just saying when there's this much consensus, like something will go wrong.
15:05Always scary. Something will go wrong. But as I mentioned, I'm with Boone on this one.
15:09I think that the Lions are one of those right answer offenses in the NFL.
15:13For my first bold prediction, I'll dovetail it into an offense that I actually think is going to be one of those like sneaky right answer offenses.
15:21The more and more I thought about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the higher and higher I've gotten on this offense over the
15:27course of the process to the point that I think Emeka Ibuka is going to lead the NFL in catches in his second NFL season.
15:34And so much of this comes back to one.
15:36I think this guy is a really, really good player.
15:39Don't care at all about the first half, second half splits in terms of the production.
15:43I think when you look at the full picture, it was a really good rookie season.
15:47And that was all while he was playing through a hamstring injury.
15:51His quarterback was playing through as he's let us know many, many injuries.
15:54The offensive line was banged up. This offensive line, as Nate and I talked about on a show at this point, I
16:00guess this was last week, but technically in human time, it was yesterday that this is the best offensive line in the NFL, according to Nate's rankings.
16:08And I buy that. I think Baker Mayfield looking trim, by the way.
16:11Okay. Looking, looking, trying to get a contract. He's trying to get that money.
16:15He's in that. Nobody respects me. Part of the Baker Mayfield cycle, which is usually when he plays a cycle.
16:20Yeah. He's he plays his best ball when he's there at that point.
16:24Right. So I think there's a lot of shoot.
16:26Even Bucky Irving is a guy I've gotten way higher on over the course of the process.
16:31But to come back to Emeka Buka, this to me just goes so much back to not only were all those variables
16:37present in his first season, he was also playing out of position.
16:40He was playing as the X receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because Mike Evans was hurt.
16:45He took 69% of his sample snaps outside in his reception perception sample, 64% on the line of scrimmage.
16:50That's just like diametrically opposed to who he was as a prospect when he was a 74% snaps inside.
16:5581% off the ball is kind of a big slot.
16:58Zach Robinson putting him in the Z receiver position.
17:00I've seen some people like this is like what Cooper Cup was playing.
17:04Honestly, the best analogy is actually just look back to Drake London.
17:07Like Drake London was a guy who was, I mean, a better prospect and a better player in Abuka, I think, but
17:13still first two seasons, X receiver and Arthur Smith's offense.
17:16And the production was kind of come and go, not just because of that, but also quarterback chaos and all the things that we know about that offense.
17:23But he moves into that Z receiver position, you know, 30% snaps in the slot, more snaps off ball than on ball in his third and fourth season.
17:31And if London hadn't gotten hurt last year, he was a top three player in points per game before that injury in week 11.
17:38So I just think there's other than the T word, the toe, turf toe, maybe big deal.
17:42Depends on, depends on which, depending on which Twitter doctor you believe or whatever.
17:46We just don't believe Todd Bowles whenever he says anything about the injuries, but that's the big variable here.
17:51But even then, okay, he's a little slow in the first couple of weeks.
17:55Then he smokes the rest of the, the rest of the season, leads the NFL and catches.
18:00I think the Buccaneers are fascinating from a Todd Bowles perspective.
18:03Yeah. Where, you know, a couple of years ago and he, he hires outside of his friend group, which is rare in the NFL, it seems.
18:10So a couple of years ago, who are Todd Bowles, his friends?
18:13That's a good question. Um, you know, he hired Liam Cohen.
18:16That offense was amazing. Then Liam Cohen immediately gets a head coaching job with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
18:21Even before that, he, you know, hired Dave Knauss.
18:23When you're in charge of the offense, he goes and gets a head coaching job.
18:27Then he tries to hire from within with Josh Grizzard.
18:30And, uh, that doesn't work and he's gone. So it's almost like, Hey, the offense is so good that the OC then
18:36gets hired as a head coach, or it kind of fails.
18:39It kind of becomes mid. It kind of has high points and then low points like last season.
18:44And I'm fascinated to see which version we get of that with Zach Robinson.
18:48So one, I kind of think that Zach Robinson's a little bit like Bud Light, Liam Cohen.
18:52Anyways, I, I think the run game is a question mark from a design perspective, but I think it was objectively good for receiver usage in Atlanta there.
19:00Um, by the way, I just want you to mention the Todd Bowles part of this because I've mentioned this many times on the show.
19:07Shout out to me. I have a personal trainer, uh, Joe Durdall, Chesapeake, Virginia, one life.
19:11Get yourself hooked up there. You got your next month free.
19:14Let's hope, but he's a, he's Bucs fan. And I was just literally in human time telling him yesterday, I was like,
19:20I'm so jacked up on the Bucs offense. And I hate to tell this to you, buddy, cause he's not the biggest Bowles fan.
19:26I was like, yeah, Bowles is getting a contract extension after they win the division this year.
19:31And the offense is top 10 and Zach Robinson will be gone.
19:34And yeah, you'll live in the exact cycle again.
19:37So that is the Bucs cycle, but I do think this is one of those on years for the offense Boone.
19:43I feel your skepticism from next to me. I, we talked all last year, trying to figure out the Ibuka thing and those splits from the early season.
19:50Much of it up to that. And I had talked myself into him.
19:54I was really getting excited about him. And then the toe injury happens.
19:57And I don't think that we can just sweep that under the rug because Hey, I just did.
20:02No, we talked about how the injuries happened for him and that impacted the rest of his season.
20:07It wasn't the same player. And now the injury seals already broken.
20:10And this is a position receiver position where a toe injury is big time concerning.
20:14So they have the ninth easiest schedule for fantasy receivers.
20:17Like I said, I just was letting myself kind of get excited about him and I was drafting him a lot.
20:23And now I've pulled back a little bit just because of this toe injury.
20:27It makes me worried. And it's one that I'm kind of staying away from him now in drafts.
20:32I find I'm going with other guys in that range again, because there's so many good receivers that we like in that area.
20:38He ends up being the guy where I'm just kind of like, you know what?
20:42I don't want to get involved with this toe issue.
20:45I mean, listen, that's fair. The voice of Scott Pinaus, he's always ringing in the back of my head.
20:50Don't draft into injuries. They're going to find you.
20:52You're kind of drafting into what I think is ultimately a minor injury.
20:56Number one, we don't know if it's turf toe.
20:58Fair. Todd Bowles also said that Bucky Irving wouldn't return into the fall.
21:02And then he was back at like a practice a week later.
21:05Yeah. Like it is impossible to read. It's about, I would love for anyone else associated on the Tampa Bay, but your
21:11payroll to comment on the toe injury, literally anyone else to say anything about the toe injury.
21:16So yeah, it is definitely a variable here, but that's why it's a bold prediction, you know?
21:20Right. One final point. Baker Mayfield is a wild ride and to watch him is the same thing.
21:25When Emekek Buka had that insane start to last season, just going back and revisiting it, there were like double coverage, ball
21:31going through defenders hands, him coming down with these unbelievable catches on the field after Baker was buying time, buying time, avoiding sacks, all this type of stuff.
21:39And all it took was like one bad hit, one injury to Baker Mayfield.
21:43And that kind of living on the edge high wire act that he plays then turns into, oh, now he's turnover prone,
21:49sack prone, all that type of stuff. So you're also hoping obviously for Baker to play at this crazy Houdini like level for 17 games.
21:55Yeah. I do think the high wire act though, with him in the role that he will be in with these like
22:01big breaking routes, which is what we saw in the early part of the season for a Buka.
22:06I think that can be a positive, but I definitely realize I'm walking a tight rope here with the toe injury with the Baker Mayfield of it all.
22:14I never know which is the right year to bet on Baker Mayfield, but I'm assuming this 2026 season is going to
22:20be one of those years, but we are going to take our first quick break.
22:24We come back. We've got more bold predictions. We'll get into that right up to this.
22:28All right, we're back. It is time for more bold predictions here for the 2026 NFL season.
22:33Josh Norris, you're back up, buddy. Let's go. Well, I'll dovetail what you just said by Mekek Buka and include him here in my next comment and prediction.
22:41All right. One of the fourth round wide receivers is going to finish top seven in wide receiver scoring this season.
22:46Love a non-specific bold prediction. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
22:49I'm going to give you specifics here right now.
22:52And I think we can even include the final pick of the third round, which is Zay Flowers.
22:57Then through round four, that's Jalen Waddle, Tedderone McMillan, Emek Ekbuka, Ladin McConkie, and Garrett Wilson is then the first pick of the fifth round.
23:04I've said it many times. This is like my favorite cluster of players of any position to draft the season.
23:09Like this is why I love a running back, running back, then a wide receiver, wide receiver start from that one, two
23:15turn is because I can get two of these guys and feel awesome about it.
23:19And, you know, everyone in the fancy football bubble loves to write these think pieces on who's the next JSN.
23:25I mean, I think you can use all six of these names and make a case for them.
23:30I mean, I can do it with Zay Flowers because, you know, Matt, that the big thing that needs to change for him is just simply touchdowns.
23:37He's never scored more than six touchdowns in a single season.
23:40I think this is a reset season for that potentially with Declan Doyle coming in.
23:44I mean, he had just 10 red zone targets last season, 17 over the last two years.
23:49Freaking Olamide Zaccheaus had more red zone targets and touchdowns than Zay Flowers did last year.
23:53Who coached Olamide Zaccheaus? Declan Doyle. Also, Declan Doyle was working with Ben Johnson, who previously got someone like Amon Ross-St.
23:59Brown. This is the one right here. Yes, and while Amon Ross-St.
24:02Brown would have a few extra pounds on Zay Flowers, Amon Ross-St.
24:05Brown is like the player in terms of red zone activity for his team.
24:09I mean, it is 64 red zone targets over the last two seasons, and that's equal to 19 touchdowns.
24:14Even if we get to eight, nine, and heck, even 10 touchdowns for Zay Flowers, that takes him then from, you know,
24:20the wide receiver 17 into the wide receiver seven category.
24:23And I think he's already going to pay off where he's going, but again, the condensed field work Boone is something that
24:29could take him and rocket ship him up into like, oh, we should have drafted him much, much earlier this year.
24:35Well, and this is exactly why I said what I said about Abuka last segment, right?
24:39It's just look at all the names in this list.
24:42Why take the risk on him when you have all these other guys that you could go after?
24:47I know Jalen Waddle, somebody that we've talked about so much on the show, he was on my list of guys who could lead you to a title.
24:54So excited about him this year. I have some of these guys like Waddle and McAughey up in the third round.
25:00Zay Flowers, of course, as a third round pick.
25:02And you end up in these weird scenarios in drafts.
25:05So we've talked about it a little bit, Josh.
25:07The idea of how early do I go after these guys or can I risk it and wait until the fourth and
25:13hope that I get one of them? And it's just such a great group that, yeah, we should be hitting it hard.
25:19I mean, yeah, 34th overall is Zay Flowers over the last seven days.
25:23I mean, shoot, you could put T. Higgins in here as 34th overall, kind of same spot there.
25:28Rashid Rice, that's probably not going to happen. Jalen Waddle, Tedrow, McMillan, Ladd McConkie, Van Emeka, Ibuka.
25:33So yeah, I mean, drafters are starting to make the decision to go for those guys as opposed to Ibuka.
25:38But any one of these guys I could see really hitting here.
25:41If you had to like really, is Zay Flowers the one you have the most confidence in?
25:46It would be Zay, but I mean, I can also make the case for Ladd McConkie, for example.
25:51So where I feel like we started to get bored with the Ladd McConkie hype, maybe because there was just so much of it.
25:57And then, you know, there's some injuries on the offensive line.
26:00That's part of it. But still, I feel like it's kind of calmed down a little bit.
26:05So for Ladd and how Mike McDaniel brought in just heavier bodies for this team in terms of Charlie Kolar and David
26:11Njoku and Alec Ingold at fullback, too. So that was the pathway for Jackson Smith and Jigba last year to get, you
26:17know, 51% of his fantasy production on 38% of his routes with heavier personnel on the field last year.
26:22Because when you get these bigger, let's say, less productive pass catchers on the field, then it all gets funneled to your best players.
26:29And so I don't know exactly if Ladd McConkie is going to be out there in every single snap.
26:34I would hope so, because to me, he's clearly the best wide receiver on the Chargers.
26:38And, you know, Mike McDaniel has already posted seasons, top six, top three in terms of scoring offenses with the Dolphins.
26:44And that was with Tua. And so what can you do with Justin Herbert here?
26:48So if Ladd is a full-time player, and again, they utilize these heavier personnel sets to the degree I think they're going
26:54to, then yeah, we should see at least a career high in targets and a fancy season here from Ladd.
26:59This prediction, this is like no notes, Josh. This is my favorite.
27:03I have four bold predictions today. This is my favorite that we're going to talk about all day long.
27:08It's just such a good range of receivers. I definitely flirted with a Jalen Waddle sees 150 targets, bold prediction, you know,
27:14because I just think he's going to crush in this offense.
27:17But I feel like that was a point. I mean, 220 more routes Portland Sutton ran last year than Jalen Waddle.
27:22220. And that team, what, is near the top in terms of play action usage?
27:27I mean, Jalen Waddle off play action is just a dynamo.
27:30So again, I could go three minutes on each one of these names.
27:33And that's why, to me, I just want to include the whole round.
27:37I mean, these are the projections for Jalen Waddle that I'm seeing on the screen right now, 118 targets.
27:42If Jalen, don't do it. I almost did it.
27:44I almost did it. I will do this if this happens.
27:47But I'll come back to bite you. Ask me after the three roses.
27:51Then maybe I'll say something about Jalen Waddle on 118 targets.
27:54But I will be stunned if he has 118 targets.
27:56I'll take the way over on that because he's even more of the type of player, which I talk about Ibuga getting that role change.
28:03I think it matters even more that Waddle is going to be that movement off ball player in Denver this year.
28:09So again, I know I said I wasn't going to hammer the point about Waddle because I feel like I've hammered it so much this offseason.
28:16But for the folks who are just tuning in for the first time, they're like, welcome.
28:20Hello. Well, there's a lot of them. Look at the numbers.
28:23Look at the numbers. There's a lot of folks who come in here at the end of August, early September and say,
28:29I mean, I haven't done a damn bit of research for fantasy football.
28:33What are these goofs? Draft two of these guys.
28:35Yeah, there's the take. There's the actionable take from Josh Norris here.
28:39Draft two of these guys. And when we talk this much about a player like Waddle, normally when I'm at home, I
28:45reach back and I knock on the wooden wall.
28:47Right. I don't know if you can reach the wooden case back there, but yes, we need to knock on some wood because yes.
28:54Thank you. We do not want to see anything happen to Jalen Waddle this year.
28:58There's a massive season coming for him. That is for sure.
29:01So we like these round three to four ish, five ish players at the wide receiver position.
29:05Boone kind of dovetails perfectly to your next bowl predictions.
29:08The running backs who are kind of in that next range here.
29:11Yeah. So we talked, maybe you go a couple of running backs early, then you grab a couple of receivers and then
29:17you end up in like round five, late round four sometimes.
29:20And should you go running back again? Are some of these receivers still going to be on the board?
29:25I find myself often going running back at that point.
29:28And really, these two guys are two of the players that I'm hitting the most.
29:32Cam Scadaboo and Quinshon Judkins. And my bold prediction is that they both finish as top 15 fantasy running backs.
29:38And if I had said that last season when each of them had these really, really gruesome injuries, I don't think anyone would have believed me.
29:45But man, the recoveries on these two, phenomenal, right?
29:47We saw them both participate to some degree in OTAs.
29:50Cam Scadaboo out there in the very first preseason game and looking pretty good.
29:54Now, I said no notes on your last one.
29:56I think this is the one that I'm probably going to get the most notes on, I'm guessing.
30:01But the thing for me is we saw them over small sample sizes.
30:05We saw them show this kind of upside, right?
30:07And Harmon's going to be sick of hearing this stat because I brought it up so many times.
30:12But Scadaboo stood it up for eight games, you know, in his...
30:15It's nice that you think I remember. It's nice that you think Matt listens to you.
30:20No, I listen to you, but I gotta... He's reading on his laptop while I'm talking.
30:24I've seen it. I'm online shopping. I'm online shopping.
30:26Yeah, no, I've been putting data over you. No, honestly, I'm just like looking at the rosé menus here.
30:32No, but seriously, I listen to you, but I barely remember the stats I got to bring to the show.
30:37I don't remember the stats sometimes. Six healthy appearances for Scadaboo.
30:40In those games, he averaged the seventh most fantasy points among running backs in half PPR.
30:4417.4 fantasy points per game. I know Tyron Tracy Jr.
30:47might have played his way out of a role in that Giants backfield.
30:51Might have played himself off the Giants roster potentially this preseason.
30:54But last year when those two were healthy together, we saw Scadaboo just dominate him in terms of routes run, in terms of targets.
31:00He basically had around 75% of that stuff. Tyron Tracy, not really as involved.
31:04And then you look at the last four starts for Scadaboo, and the volume was huge.
31:0822 touches per game. The only running back during that stretch that had more touches per game was Christian McCaffrey.
31:14Caveat, small sample size, all that sort of stuff factors in.
31:17But this is a guy that that Giants team thought last year that they could really build that running game around.
31:23They're still listing him as the starter. And yes, Najee Harris is there now.
31:26But Najee Harris is coming off an Achilles stare.
31:29He also might not be by the time this show is out.
31:32Well, that's fair. Yeah, that is fair to say.
31:34But I think when we hear the beat writers talking about Najee just looking huge and he's a big guy.
31:40He's definitely a big guy, but he's coming off an Achilles stare.
31:43Do we really think he's going to have a huge role in this backfield?
31:47Or is he just going to come in and be that second back behind Scadaboo?
31:51So I don't know what you guys think about the reports more recently about how he's kind of getting on the nerves of the defenders.
31:58I was going to say I wanted to read this quote off, which I saw in the airport yesterday flying up here.
32:04This is from John Harbaugh. Pat Leonard tweeted this out.
32:07John Harbaugh asked about Cam Scadaboo's, quote, infectious energy.
32:09Harbaugh said he got a 15-yard penalty at the end of practice.
32:12Did you see that? Yeah, it's infectious. It can be infectious the other way.
32:16An infectious disease type of thing. We want it to be in a positive way.
32:20Boone, how do you feel about the fact that the guy you're hyping up here was compared to an infectious disease by his new head coach?
32:27He's a wild man. And how often does the offensive players and the defensive players not get along?
32:32That's fine. He's basically best friends with Jackson Dart, right?
32:35We just need the offense to rally around him and this run game to rally around him.
32:40And someone else will be involved. It might be Najee Harris.
32:43But Scadaboo, to me, has shown at least he has this kind of upside.
32:46And then Quinshon Judkins might even be more interesting.
32:49Josh, you and I were talking before the show about, I have some thoughts that, you know, the Cleveland Browns offense could
32:55be more interesting this year than they were. Oh, baby.
32:57Good luck to you. You had your segment last year of games nobody's talking about or whatever it was called.
33:03And the Browns were just basically irregular. The Browns were irregular in that segment.
33:07Well, now going into this season, I think they have a lot of pieces.
33:11Yeah. Quarterback aside, they have a lot of pieces.
33:13Just the guy who touches the football. We're curious about a lot of young players, a lot of young talent.
33:18And Judkins might be getting overlooked a little bit.
33:21I know he had the injury later in the year, but think about how good he was before that.
33:26Oh, yeah. Top 20 fantasy running back in four of his first six games, including three weeks inside the top 12 during that stretch.
33:33And I think what throws off his stats from last year, it wasn't the injury at the end of the season.
33:38It was the shoulder injury that occurred because it hurts a shoulder in week eight.
33:42The numbers change from that point on, right? If we isolate the six games before he suffered the shoulder injury, RB 14
33:48over that stretch after the shoulder injury, RB 30 from week nine to week 15.
33:52So if we can keep this guy healthy with these new pieces around, they're going to make defenses, hopefully respect the pass game a little more.
34:00Assuming the quarterback can give us even something close to average quarterback play.
34:03But Judkins as well has shown that he's shown that Josh has made at least five or six facial expressions during this.
34:09And this is not the only time we're going to be talking about the Browns today.
34:13So I can't wait for the future conversation. I have some notes.
34:17Okay. First, I love on your vote. She's like, no notes.
34:20You say, I have some notes. So I think Quinsha Judkins was the best rookie runner in the NFL last season.
34:25I agree with that. I'm nervous that that doesn't matter.
34:28Um, I think actually this is in a better environment this year than he was in last year.
34:33Todd Munkin, a hopefully much improved offensive line, but the big change for him is going to be defense like that defense
34:39kept the Browns in games that they had no business being in.
34:42So that gave Quinsha Judkins carries in the fourth quarter carries in the third quarter.
34:46I mean, that defense kept the Bengals to 17 points, the Packers to 10, the Dolphins, the six, the Raiders to 10,
34:52the Steelers to six and the Bengals to 18.
34:55And so while I think Quinsha Judkins is freaking awesome and creates yards on his own and all that type of stuff.
35:01Um, I'm pretty nervous that he can even be a big wind player because it might just be kind of, Oh, you
35:07dropped him as running back 22 and it becomes the running back 16 and like the small wins get you there.
35:12And then with scataboo just quickly all off season, all giants beat writers have said they want to make a big splash
35:18at running back where that was Ken Walker or Travis a-chan or Jeremiah love and they didn't get any of them.
35:24I guess the splash is not J Harris if he's still on the team by this point.
35:29And so to me, if you're ringing between the lines, that's just indicative that they don't want him to have this massive work.
35:35Now, if he just outperforms everyone, he might do it.
35:38But I kind of just, again, go by the money and the draft picks and all that type of stuff and the buzz that's underlying here.
35:45And I'm a bit nervous that despite being a run, run, run, run offense, if he gets the type of massive opportunity
35:51share that he got last year, that kind of right now looks like a three headed or four headed backfield.
35:56I think the big concern with, uh, dovetailing both of these guys together is that, uh, the giants are projected on average
36:02to be like the 22nd best offense and the Cleveland Browns are 32nd.
36:06Uh, so that makes this a little difficult, uh, to hit both of these guys, Boone.
36:10And the funny part is, yeah, the guy that's on the 32nd offense, the Cleveland Browns, I think that's an infinitely better player.
36:16I am just concerned that camp Scadaboo is a mean player.
36:19I've never on the Labor Day show and I'm somewhere three roses deep.
36:23I can say like, I think he might be a mean player.
36:26I think someone like Quinchon Boone though, is maybe the toughest player to rank for me in this style where as an
36:32individual, you're watching him and he's fricking electric. He's awesome.
36:35And so in your head, you're like, Oh, if things bounce, right.
36:38Then he can do that on an average team, but then you have to put him in the environment that he's in.
36:44And like, does that matter? Like how much is that going to matter this year?
36:48Here's a reason why we're taking these guys in the fifth round.
36:52That's why I was going to actually ask you though, because, uh, while Quinchon Judkins, yeah, he does go in Yahoo drafts.
36:58Yeah. Kind of in that third pick of the fifth round.
37:01Yeah. He's like the 54th overall player right now in this moment in time.
37:04Scadaboo is the 44th overall player off the board.
37:07You have to take him over all the wide receivers.
37:10I just mentioned on the point that you said, no, no.
37:13There is never a chance. I'm doing that in the drafts that I've been in.
37:17I have not seen him go ahead of a lot of those receivers.
37:20So I know that's what it says in ADP right now, especially with Najee signing.
37:24I think maybe some ADP more recently. We'll see Scadaboo fall.
37:27Who just has without, not in my league. That's one spot between last week and this week.
37:32So we're going down one. Both these guys have, and you guys hear me talk about schedules a lot.
37:37They both have, you know, easier schedules, 10th, 11th, easiest schedules on the season.
37:41I also want to add one more thing about them.
37:44Okay. Especially for Judkins. This is one where you might not have to draft him because at the start of the year,
37:50he gets the Jags who are monsters against the run.
37:52And then he gets the box who just made Vita Veya happy when he's out there.
37:57The run defense is very tough. After that, the schedule gets a lot easier for him.
38:01So that might be a buy low opportunity. Scadaboo could be the same thing.
38:05He gets the Cowboys who last year were a positive matchup, you know, week one, he gets them.
38:10I think their defense is going to be a little better this year.
38:13Yeah. They're going to Rams in week two. That is a very scary matchup.
38:17After that, the Titans, the Cardinals, the commanders. So even if you don't draft these guys, get ready for me to talk
38:23about them after the first couple of weeks as potential buy.
38:26So I'm going to rewrite your ball prediction here.
38:28Okay. Okay. I don't know if that's in the, is that in the charter?
38:32Are we allowed to do that? Um, your bold prediction is trading for Quinchon Judkins and Cam Scadaboo in week three could
38:38be a fantasy league winning move versus drafting them.
38:41That is a great YouTube headline. It's almost like that's what you do.
38:44You know, these are the, these are the 17 players that you should trade for after week three.
38:49I mean, I'm flicking that video. I'll tell you what.
38:52The easier approach is obviously draft them and ride out the first two weeks.
38:56That was the two weeks that you said. You're not always going to be able to make that trade in every league, but yes.
39:02Um, overall on the season, I think these guys are going to be meaningful fantasy pieces.
39:07And I think we saw glimpses of it last year.
39:09Got it. And I think we're going to see an opportunity to have it again this year.
39:14And actually, and Quinchon Judkins as well. One other thing, um, they've talked about, and now I feel the need to throw
39:20everything at the wall here because the way you two approached it.
39:23And I knew it was coming. Roll a deck, some notes in his head.
39:27He's like, okay, I got to cover this to cover my bases.
39:30New coaching staff has talked about using him more as a complete back, a three down back.
39:35Maybe he gets more involved in the passing game as well.
39:38And that could help bump him up. He's going to need it.
39:41He is going to need it. All right. My bold prediction here.
39:44Uh, my second one, final one for this segment.
39:47I mean, this is, this is actually less likely than yours.
39:50Jordan Love wins MVP this year. And the reason that I want to make this the bold prediction on the fantasy show
39:56and not like on a 301 or anything like that is that I actually think it's pretty unlikely that he wins MVP
40:02because I don't know that the Packers are going to be all that good this year.
40:06I actually have a lot of Packers skepticism specifically about the defense.
40:09Definitely about Josh Jacobs. I mean, Cam Scott was probably number one running back that I'm not drafting an ADP then or number two.
40:16The number one is like Josh Jacobs. Yeah, I'm not.
40:19And this is probably tough at this point to say in again, real time.
40:22As you are listening to this, you might not know about the Josh Jacobs.
40:26Like, is there a suspension or anything like that?
40:29But even without that, there's still a lot of red flags in his profile.
40:33So I'm not sure that the Packers as a team are going to be good, but this is just the easiest way to say that.
40:39I think we have, and again, shout out to Scott Pianowski who flagged this on the show a couple of weeks ago.
40:45It is pretty insane that we as the fantasy bubble are talking about the Packers are going to throw the ball more.
40:51We all want to draft Christian Watson. We all want to draft Matthew Golden.
40:55We want to draft Jaden Reed. Tucker Kraft sounds like he's going to play week one.
40:59Sounds like he's going to play week one. And we all mean you're not going to get us to say a bad
41:05word about Tucker Kraft on any Yahoo property. It's actually in all of our contracts.
41:10We can't. We love Tucker Kraft. So all of that together, and yet no one wants to draft the quarterback.
41:15Truly, he goes like outside of the top 20 quarterbacks.
41:18Mathematically, that doesn't make any sense. I just think if all these things combine the way that we want it to, Christian
41:24Watson stays healthy and pays off a top 30 wide receiver ADP.
41:27Jaden Reed finally stays healthy and has a big year.
41:30Matthew Golden ascends in year two, which is a low bar because it was not much in year one.
41:35He ascends in year two. Tucker Kraft stays healthy.
41:37Well, the quarterback is probably going to throw for 30 to 40 touchdowns and have one of those like at least in
41:43December he's in the conversation for MVP seasons because all the nerds are like, look at the EPA.
41:48Look at this, that, and the other. Adjusted yards per attempt.
41:51And he has this dynamic season. I do think he's a really undervalued fantasy quarterback.
41:55Josh Jacobs, 12 red zone touchdowns last year because while he might not be as explosive as he has previously been, he
42:01is one of these players that when you get in that condensed field, they just pound the rock three times in a
42:07row or two times in a row. So if he's suspended, if he misses time, whatever it is, then half those touchdowns
42:13that they're going to join love, I think makes up some of your argument here.
42:17The other part is I am relentlessly drafting Christian Watson, Matthew Golden this year.
42:21Relentlessly. Uh, we are finally at a point and I'm just crossing my fingers.
42:25This is true. This is a wide receiver trio and not a quartet or beyond that.
42:29Uh, they're all rotating in there. My only hesitation is the offensive line.
42:33Um, last year, their best group of five only played together 18% of the time.
42:37The one guy that played 17 games is now on the Carolina Panthers and Rashid Walker, their best offensive lineman in Zach
42:43Tom partially towards the teller tendon in week 14.
42:45And they're kind of still mixing and matching and all that type of stuff.
42:49But I agree. Like if they don't have a volume hog and Josh Jacobson, they are asked to throw the football more.
42:55This is an ambitious downfield thrower. You know, as guys do perfectly match that in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and then
43:01some manufacturer stuff underneath with Jane Reed and Tucker craft.
43:04Uh, it is perfectly created for Jordan love to have like, he's already a good player, but a true breakout top five like season.
43:10The offensive line is concerning. I'm glad you brought that up.
43:13I've been trying to move love up though with the Tucker craft news, especially and all the things regarding that receiving core.
43:19It's just hard. Like, I don't know where you have him ranked Harmon, but like when I look at my rankings.
43:25Jackson Dart or Jordan love at cost, uh, give me Jordan love.
43:28I mean, I'm going to rank Jackson Dart higher just because I think the rushing upside is there for him.
43:34You have to default to that. But I like, I would much rather wait and get Jordan love who I have ranked as QB 16, by the way.
43:41In terms of the rankings, like it's tight in that range, right?
43:45Like guys like Malik Willis, guys like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, even Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray.
43:49All these guys have a top five season. Yeah.
43:51Who are we moving him ahead of? That's the trouble that I get into each time I'm doing my rankings and my
43:57projections is that he's in that group. But where does he land in that group and how high can you actually push him?
44:04I am 16. So he's, uh, the fourth quarterback in my fourth tier.
44:07And I agree. Like there's a group in tier three, like the Herberts, the Trevor Lawrence, the Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, Jackson Dart, Bo Nix.
44:14I think those guys, because they have more rushing upside, you kind of have to boost them up there.
44:19But if you just truly want to punt on quarterback, like I would take Jordan love ahead of Matthew Stafford.
44:25I would take him ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Malik Willis is tough.
44:28It's just such a wild card, but a QB 20 for me there.
44:32But the guys that I would, I mean, even Kyler Murray, like I really wanted to put him ahead of Kyler.
44:37I really wanted to put him ahead of Kyler Murray because I just have more faith.
44:42But Matt, if he wins MVP, he's going to outscore all of those.
44:45Oh yeah. Yeah. I'm with you. That's why this is a bold prediction.
44:49Remember, remember, remember the rules here. But no, I mean, for Jordan love to just on the offensive line point, I actually
44:55think that is a bigger detriment to the run game and Josh Jacobs.
44:58And it will be the past section, especially because, and again, this is part of the narrative that I think people haven't
45:04put enough focus on love as this part of it.
45:07All the reports had a Packers camp and you saw it in the preseason that they want to play with more pace.
45:13They want to get into the huddle faster. You know, this team annually is among one of the slowest pace teams in the NFL.
45:19This kind of all of these McVay Shanahan offenses are.
45:22It's almost like the one, you know, proton torpedo.
45:25You can put that thing in a Death Star and blow it up.
45:28It's just they play a little, you know, nerd out.
45:31Hey, hey, buddy. Anytime. Listen, so you get that there.
45:34You're more pace into the offense. Get into the huddle faster.
45:37There's a small. It's not as loud, which is good because this movement actually aged so well.
45:41There's a small movement on the internet that wants to see like let love cook.
45:45Like we made this with let Russ cook. I don't know if you want to be associated to that.
45:50But this time it's for real. Yeah. This time it's for real.
45:54I have a hot take, another bold prediction to add on to yours.
45:57Okay. Okay. I think it's ridiculous that Matthew Golden is going after Jane Reed on every single.
46:02No, I think that's correct. Really? Also, that's not a prediction, Josh.
46:05That's it. That's no. As in, I think Matthew Golden is going to score at least a tier above Jane Reed does this season.
46:12Why? He's out there in two wide receiver sets.
46:14Oh, I hadn't heard. They're not going to run to wide receiver.
46:17No, they will previously. No. So they have Tucker Kraft.
46:20They have a fullback in Chris Brooks that they used quite a bit last year as.
46:24Yes. And then. Fullback. I guarantee you by the time the show comes out, they've made another move at Titan to run this heavier personal looks.
46:32100%. So I think Matthew Golden is. Matt, we shouldn't just like have.
46:35This is who he was in his rookie year.
46:38I. I'm a. Listen, I'm a Matthew Golden centrist.
46:40Okay. So I'm actually not going to make a strong, strong argument.
46:43Well, I mean, you don't really have to if he's going in the sixth pick.
46:47Exactly. That's why it's like take even if you I've said it based on his rookie season, I could kind of see it going either way.
46:54Like he could turn into a really good player.
46:57He could maybe just kind of be. A useful player, like, but useful, not useful.
47:01If you get the intonation and the word there, I think that's both possible.
47:05But at his ADP, who cares? Take the shot.
47:07But I just think like Jane Reed is. I've seen Jane Reed be a better player in the NFL than I've seen Matthew Golden so far.
47:14And that does at least move the needle for me.
47:17But listen, the last thing we need to do is get into a deep argument about the Packers.
47:22We're going to do that in a couple of days.
47:25Well, I think the reality here is we are just saying draft players from this offense.
47:29It is a pretty undervalued unit right now. But with that, we are going to take our next quick break.
47:34We come back. We've got more bold predictions coming at you guys.
47:38We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
47:41We've got more bold predictions for you. Josh, hit us with your next bold prediction.
47:45Dajon Stripling finishes as the rookie wide receiver one.
47:47Yes. Yes. I mean, this is not that big of a leap.
47:50I mean, to everyone else. But we'll go through this.
47:53Okay. It's not a big leap relative to the field.
47:56In any other occasion, if the 33rd overall pick that finished anywhere from second to 10th in offensive points and plays, you
48:02know, on that team had a preseason like Dajon Stripling, people would be losing their minds.
48:06You know, especially when you consider that he's competing with 33-year-old Mike Evans and whatever Debo Samuel is here in his retirement tour.
48:12But I think that everyone, the world, the universe has been slow to react to Dajon Stripling's preseason.
48:17I have his wide receiver 34 right now, 76 overall.
48:20And consensus rings out there, 70 plus experts that do this.
48:23Wide receiver 56. Expert is crazy. 139 overall. Even on Yahoo, at this moment as we're recording, 116 overall.
48:28So all he has to do is beat Jordan Tyson, who's injured.
48:32Mekhi Lemon, who's missed all of camp. Casey Concepcion, awesome, but no rough offense.
48:35I just think people are anchored by their opinion, either dynasty or draft communities on Dajon Stripling and aren't opening their eyes
48:41enough to how impeccable his entire offseason has been and even on the field in preseason so far.
48:46The NFL love this guy. And we've said it on the show before, to the point where he was turning down top
48:5230 visits because so many teams wanted to bring him in before the draft.
48:56And I think that's where the fantasy community maybe did lag behind quite a bit on that one.
49:01Also, you mentioned Mike Evans. You mentioned the receiving core.
49:04George Kittle, 30 years old, coming off a torn Achilles.
49:06CMC, 30 years old, coming off 450 touches when you include the playoffs last year.
49:10Like, he could absolutely turn into the guy in this offense.
49:13You have him slightly ahead of me. We've both been excited about him.
49:17I have to. I have him in the 30s as well among receivers.
49:21I think I have him a couple spots behind you in terms of the overall rankings.
49:25You have him in the 30s? We're in. Yeah, it's so funny.
49:28I think Boone is maybe the only fantasy analyst I haven't heard talk about stribbling over the course of August.
49:34So I'm glad you're like, keep going on more stribbling stuff because I want to know more about what you think about
49:40this guy from just the overall perspective. Well, we've seen receivers who I think are much lesser players in this Kyle Shanahan
49:46offense come on and have great fantasy stretches. Remember that stretch of Jawan Jennings?
49:49What if Jawan Jennings had a jetpack on his back?
49:52Demarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne. We've seen so many guys step up.
49:55And man, the fact that Mike Evans already has the injury seal broken here, we're seeing him in and out of practice.
50:01Could that just be a veteran who doesn't want to practice?
50:04I mean, we've known for the best staffer thing last year.
50:07I hope so because my God. I know. We can't string five practices together.
50:11But if you also go back and look like the injury history on him, on Mike Evans specifically, seven straight years where he's had soft tissue, hamstrings.
50:18Like it's concerning and there might be a reason why the Bucs were like, all right, well, he's not coming back.
50:24So Brock Purdy last year, most accurate passer 10 plus yards on the field.
50:28That's the second time already in his career that he's been the most accurate passer in the NFL in that area of the field.
50:34Again, this is tripping that Matt so far in the preseason.
50:37We've seen him win on the outside. We've seen him win the slot.
50:41We've seen manufacturer touches in his direction. We've seen motion to get him into these stacks and free releases.
50:46Like this is already, by the way, he's a fantastic blocker.
50:49Like I thought coming out of Ole Miss, he had, and it wasn't perfect.
50:53And it hasn't been perfect in the preseason. He had the potential to be the best blocking wide receiver.
50:58What, you know, kept Brendan Ayuk from having an awesome rookie season and find himself in the doghouse at times?
51:03The effort in the blocking department. You have to do that.
51:06McAulshian in offense. He checks all these boxes. And what we haven't even seen yet is the yards after the catch.
51:12Go against the game against Georgia. I mean, he was running away from SEC defensive backs.
51:16So again, I just think that people are getting so anchored by their pre-draft opinion and their bias and that they're wrong and then they aren't reacting enough.
51:24And they should just wipe away all that and take them.
51:27Because we get to a point in drafts where I have more negatives about a bunch of these wide receivers versus, oh, it's a mystery box a bit.
51:35But I have so many more positives in the direction of stripling that I just have a season past the strip club.
51:41I get it. Listen, you don't have to convince me about stripling.
51:44I really like stripling as a prospect. I put out the YouTube video a couple of days before the draft saying he was my favorite day two sleeper.
51:52And they took him, you know, very first pick of day two.
51:55A little bit aggressive. A little bit aggressive. But overall, like what you've seen in the preseason is a lot of what
52:01I liked about him as a prospect. Like he looks, this is rare, but it's kind of comforting to see.
52:06Sometimes good, sometimes bad. In this case, I think it has been good where what he's done in the preseason is exactly
52:12what I imagined him as an NFL player. You've seen the blocking.
52:16You've seen him work on in-breaking routes, as you're seeing on the screen here, his reception perception charts, like dig route success
52:22rate really high, slant route success rate really Pretty good to shoot in offense.
52:25Absolutely. Yeah. Those are the routes, by the way, like when I started to really get high on the Brandon Iyuk, you know, Brock Purdy marriage.
52:32And then same thing with Ricky Pierce on obviously this didn't work out because the injuries.
52:37It was those routes like Purdy loves to throw those routes, the dig routes and everything like Stribling can do that.
52:42Also, you know, above 50th percentile success rate versus press coverage, like 52nd percentile.
52:46He can get into his release as well. The blocking, the catching the ball away from the frame, like high window targets.
52:52He has looked like the guy I expected him to be in the preseason.
52:56I think the question is just, and I'll pose this to you, Josh, like, could you see him still being, even though
53:02like everybody's gassed him up and I think justifiably so.
53:05I haven't quite gotten him into the 30s yet at receiver, but I see where you're at only because I still can
53:11also see this being a situation where he is a mid to second half of the season guy.
53:16Like I can absolutely see a scenario where in the first three weeks of the season, Shanahan slow plays this thing and
53:22he runs out behind Evans and Devo Samuel. Like, is that still within the range of outcomes?
53:26I think Stribling is going to play two wide receiver sets quite early in the season.
53:31And I think from a jump. Yeah, I mean, Matt, I guess my point is when I look at the rankings, I
53:37have him ahead of Alec Pierce, Quentin Johnston, DK Metcalf, Jordan Addison, Matthew Golden.
53:40Like how different is Stribling versus Quentin Johnston? For example, like on the base level.
53:45I have Quentin Johnston 43 and right now I have Stribling at 45.
53:48My prediction, by the time that this show comes out, you will have Stribling at least as wide receiver 39, if not higher than that.
53:55Well, I'm not going to have him at wide receiver 39 because actually the next player I'm going to talk about in
54:01this segment, I'm going to jump ahead of you here in the order, Boone, because it is a rookie wide receiver.
54:07I have this player ranked as my wide receiver 41 and I could see him getting a little bit higher.
54:12That is Casey Concepcion, who I think is going to not just lead all rookies and wide receivers at fantasy points.
54:18I think he's going to lead all rookies, period.
54:20Skill position players in fantasy points. Wow. Except Jeremiah Love.
54:23Okay, okay, okay. One little caveat there, except Jeremiah Love.
54:26Because the only other real contender here, I mean, the receivers, it's just so tough.
54:30Like part of the reason, Josh, why you can be right about this and I can be right about Casey Concepcion, because
54:36we're saying it's not going to happen for Carnell Tate.
54:38Correct. Who's the wide receiver one in terms of rookies being drafted right now.
54:42And I think there's a lot of reasons to be concerned about Carnell Tate right now.
54:47Specifically, he plays with the Tennessee Titans, which literally zero catches in the preseason.
54:50Like they can't even force a catch in his direction at this point.
54:54And, you know, they've all come out. Robert Sala, Brian Dill, this is the vanilla stuff we're running.
54:59I'm like, I don't know, Dave, that looks like what you were running.
55:02Exactly. That just looks like you were running New York, big dog.
55:06So I don't know about that. But so I'm nervous about the Tate thing.
55:09So I'm trying to find like different rookie wide receivers.
55:12And, you know, I guess this is when I, when we sat here, well, I was sitting here, Boone, you were virtually.
55:18I remember sitting here being like, man, I'm so excited about this Carnell Tate landing spot.
55:23Like you can project all those targets after the NFL draft.
55:25And then you really start to see the quality of those targets and specifically where he's lined up, which I've been encouraged
55:31that it's been a little more off ball. And as the Z as opposed to the X, like it looks like they're
55:37going to sacrifice Calvin Ridley and Alec Io manner at the X receiver position, which I think is solid.
55:43But even then they can't quite get that player involved.
55:45This just looks like Wanda Robinson is catching the most passes on the team, which makes me nervous.
55:50So back to the Casey Concepcion is going to score more fantasy points than everybody except Jeremiah Love.
55:55I mean, right now, Jerry Price is the running back 25 in ADP.
55:59And I think that's a good pick running back 25.
56:01Last season was Ramondre Stevenson, 162.8 points in half PPR.
56:04I think that there's a chance that Casey Concepcion can finish with like a Wanda Robinson type of season last year, which
56:10ultimately was just over 170 points because it's a lot of designer stuff here for this player.
56:15I mean, last season, Giants were not playing with good quarterback play.
56:18I mean, Jackson Dart solid. He had his moments, but for the most part, it's designer stuff underneath.
56:23Get the ball in his hands and let him cook after the catch.
56:26And Casey Concepcion can cook after the catch. So to me, he just when I look at all of these rookies that
56:32ultimately have a lot of questions about how much is Mikhail Lemon going to play?
56:37How much can they get the ball to Carnell Tate?
56:39How many snaps is Jordan Tyson going to play this year?
56:42Period. I start to look at and I do respect this dribbling thing.
56:46He actually is the next receiver that I have ranked here among the rookies.
56:50So I'm pretty much with you here, Josh. But for Casey, I just think he's the most insulated to chaos.
56:55There will be a lot of chaos. I get it.
56:58It's Cleveland Browns. But he's just got such a good role, such a good player.
57:02I'm willing to make it. Just to hammer it home.
57:05I think that's where the argument lies for both of you guys on this.
57:08You might be biting off a little more. You can chew that he's going to outscore the top two running backs because
57:14I think they're both in pretty good situations. I couldn't just be like, well, I'm just going to take a different player than Josh.
57:21So I had to make it a little funny.
57:23But you asked the question of, like, could they slow play shriveling?
57:27They could. And it could not even matter. Shriveling could still come through because of what you're saying about Tate.
57:32Because Makai Lemon dealt with injuries and could get off to a slow start.
57:36Because, you know, Jordan Tyson, we don't know when he's going to be back.
57:40And when he does come back, if he can stay healthy, I think he's going to be incredible.
57:45Maybe be really, really good the second half of the year.
57:48But that's going to be a start for him where he's not going to get out there potentially until midway through the season.
57:54So that really sets this up for someone else to come through.
57:57And, I mean, I would choose dribbling over the Concepcion one.
58:00But, I mean, I see the argument for both.
58:03What if I told you I have Casey Concepcion ranked even higher than you do?
58:07Oh, my God. Okay, well, let's hear it. Where have we got him?
58:10I'm at wide receiver 38. Oh, boy. At this moment.
58:13So I love both. Here's the thing. Okay, okay.
58:15Simply put, though, Matt, I would rather have the guy in a couch in hand.
58:19And, you know, attached to Brock Purdy. Oh, yeah.
58:22Versus the Cleveland Browns, Todd Munkin, Deshaun Watson, Shrenory Sanders.
58:25That is, like, the determining factor for me. I mean, I'm not going to argue with you on that part.
58:30But I think that Casey Concepcion was, as much as I like dribbling, and I really was a fan of dribbling's game,
58:36I mean, I'm, like, a mega fan of Casey Concepcion.
58:39He's, like, several tiers better of a prospect here to me.
58:42And, again, I think dribbling can turn out to be a really good, nice NFL player.
58:46I don't even really want to argue against dribbling here because I think this is a great bold prediction for me.
58:52Right, but with Concepcion, I just think, number one, better player.
58:55Do the better players always score more fancy points?
58:57No, they do not. But when you get a better player and in what is ultimately a really fantasy-friendly role, a lot
59:03of – if this was Casey and he was going to be, like, a vertical receiver in this offense, I would not be having this conversation.
59:10But what we've seen from him in the preseason, what Todd Munkin has talked about him, is kind of as that Zay Flowers-type movable chess piece.
59:17And Zay Flowers is, like, a top 30 receiver in his rookie season and, obviously, better offensive environment, Lamar Jackson and the whole deal.
59:24But a lot of it was getting the ball in his hands, letting him cook after the catch.
59:29I think that's what's going to happen here for Casey Concepcion.
59:32My only thing that I'm balking at your ranking of Casey is just that, like, bro, you don't need to rank him
59:38that high to tell people who are using your rankings that they're going to – Oh, I don't care about those people.
59:44Oh, okay. See, I care about the people. No.
59:46I don't care about these, like, little accuracy things.
59:49I care about the people. The only accuracy I care about is Justin Boone's in-season accuracy.
59:53But, you know, based on our rankings, though, that's where people go in drafts on Yahoo, X-Rank, all of it.
59:58So, Stripling has already climbed in the last week, you know, from round 11 to round 10.
60:03Matt, by the time this video comes out, I wouldn't be surprised if Stripling is a ninth-round pick.
60:08And then it keeps going up and up and up.
60:11So, that's what I'm trying to do is get his ADP actually to a point where it should be versus if you're drafting anywhere else.
60:18It's like, sure, you can take him around later or two that where I have him.
60:22But I'm just letting you know how freaking good I think that his season is going to be in the softs.
60:28And we said before the show, once you get to a certain point in drafts, which I think comes around like the seventh round or so.
60:35Yes. There's just not a lot of exciting names once you get there to the point where I consider Stripling in that area of drafts.
60:41I know that's so much ahead of ADP, but still, I think you want a player in that area that has the
60:47upside that you can tell that story on. And once you get there, he's one of my favorites.
60:52Yeah. I mean, I don't feel great about attaching myself to the, you know, how...
60:56Sean Watson era? Yeah. Well, that's only going to last two weeks.
61:00That's going to last the first two rows. Okay, then the Shador Sanders era?
61:04Against all odds, baby. I'm on board with Shador Sanders getting the ball quickly to Casey and letting him do stuff after the catch.
61:10All right. We've got one more wide receiver ball prediction from you, Justin.
61:14Let's hear it. Let's talk about a good offense here.
61:16We've talked about the Browns today. Luther Burden III emerges as a fantasy wide receiver one from week three on.
61:22We're going to add that in there. That season doesn't start until week three.
61:26That doesn't end there. This guy would... He's going to Bali for the first two weeks.
61:30Can I tell you about that Mecca Buka? He leads wide receivers and catches from week three on after his turf toes.
61:36Okay. All right. The early part of the schedule, we talked about this a few weeks ago.
61:41We went over the early season schedules. The Bears do have a bit of a difficult start to the season.
61:46But I haven't understood really why Burden's ADP dropped so much recently.
61:49Because he had the groin injury. People got scared by it.
61:52A day or two later, there was video of him walking around without a limp.
61:56A week or so later, there was video of him out there jogging and testing it.
62:01And all the injury analysts basically were saying, like, this guy looks like he's going to be back by week one and be okay.
62:07And sure enough, he was back. He was a couple weeks to go before the season and he's practicing.
62:12So I'm not super concerned about the injury there.
62:15And this is a player who last year really flashed, man.
62:18And you have to love the talk from that offense.
62:21Like Ben Johnson coming out and saying, like, we're going to score the most points of any team ever.
62:26I love that confidence. I love it. I also love the way that Luther Burden carries himself.
62:30Like, he carries himself like he is going to be a diva number one receiver.
62:34He's got that confidence as well. And we saw the flashes last season, right?
62:38Early last year, week three, 101 yards and a touchdown.
62:41But he was limited to less than 30% of snaps in every contest during the first two months.
62:46From week 10 on, the playing time started to increase.
62:49He averaged nearly 64 yards per outing. That's a thousand yard pace.
62:52So we're seeing signs that he had a lot more there.
62:55His numbers were good enough to make him the wide receiver 28 in fantasy points per game over the final eight weeks.
63:01And there was some really notable performances, right? We saw him go six for 84 in week 16.
63:06The season high, eight for 138 in touchdown in week 17.
63:09And then if you dig a little deeper, you know, he posted the third best yards per out run among all wide.
63:15I thought you were going to bring up the yards per out run.
63:18It was so close. You know, behind only Puka and JSN, finished top 20 at the position in both targets per out run.
63:24Yards after the catch. And the yards after the catch one I thought was interesting because he had so many less catches
63:30than the other guys that were near the top of that list, right?
63:34So this is a player that really showed us that he can do it, who, you know, you've mentioned and you'll get
63:40into it, I'm sure, the Roma Doomsday of it all and how he started the season so hot last year before he dealt with injuries.
63:47But to me, that always seemed like they had drafted these two young players in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden.
63:52I see you both just furiously typing. No, no, no.
63:55Getting ready to fire back here. No, I mean, I'm going to actually maybe support your audience.
64:00They drafted these two young players and it takes a little time to get rookies up to speed and to get them more involved.
64:06It wasn't until week six after the bye week.
64:09Exactly. And later in the season, to me, it really looked like that's what this offense is going to be.
64:14It's going to be those two as the focal points.
64:17A Doomsday is going to be contributing as well.
64:19But really, it just comes down to draft the Chicago Bears.
64:22Like, just draft them all. DeAndre Swift is like one of my favorite players.
64:26Draft Caleb Williams. I've never said that before. Draft them all.
64:29Just be in on this offense. You know, the comments that I see in the analysis is, well, you're drafting Luther Burden
64:35at a ceiling as wide receiver 24. I don't agree with that at all.
64:39No. Like, if Luther Burden hits this year, he's going to be like a top 8, 10 wide receiver potentially.
64:44Like, that is in the range of outcomes here.
64:47And you mentioned everything. And just with Luther Burden's fit here with Ben Johnson, it could not have been a better landing spot for him.
64:53In terms of a play caller that is the best in the league at creating both free releases and also space for his players to work in.
65:01And Luther Burden is just a different mover. I mean, he is almost a unicorn with the ball in his hands throughout the league at this point.
65:08And what I love, Matt, is so often we love these downfield wide receivers.
65:12The big plays. The splash plays. Because when they hit for, you know, 30-yard touchdowns or 60-yard touchdowns, that's 12 points in our pocket.
65:19What I love are gimmies. Shorter ADOTs, right? So, like, half of the ADOT that went in Roman Dunsay's direction is now
65:25going in Luther Burden's in terms of 7.5 yards down the field.
65:28And I love that aspect in this offense. And getting the ball quickly, let him work, and do it over and over and over again.
65:35Here's the thing I would say, though. That average depth of target is coming up for Luther Burden.
65:39Oh, I agree. But I don't think it's going to be a 14 or a 15 or a 16.
65:45You know, versus, hey, if it's still in that beautiful 9 to 10-yard range, ooh, I love that.
65:50Yeah, I think that's where he'll be. Because he kind of has to be in order to be, like, a top 8
65:56receiver, top 10 receiver in this particular offense. Because they hunt those explosives so much.
66:00Yeah, I mean, Burden is a perfect fit in this offense.
66:03Like, you just kind of want to close your eyes and bet on a player that hit 70% success rate versus man,
66:0980% success rate versus zone in his rookie season.
66:11Is a super talented prospect with one of the best play callers in the NFL.
66:15I'm 11 spots ahead of current ADP on Luther Burden, which has actually only come down two spots on Yahoo, at least.
66:21I know maybe other platforms are different. But he was, like, 58th overall pick before the groin injury.
66:26He's the 60th overall pick right now. Which, actually, 58th overall is one of the more reasonable prices to get Luther Burden
66:32relative to other spots here over the course of the offseason.
66:35But I'm five spots ahead of ADP on Colson Loveland.
66:38I'm three spots ahead of ADP on DeAndre Swift.
66:40But, like I said, 11 for Burden, 21 for Roma Dunzey.
66:43Like, just draft Bears players this year. I have him as a top 40 pick.
66:47And, really, the way my rankings go, he would be in that group of receivers that you were talking about, those fourth-round guys.
66:54Like, that's where I think he belongs, ADP West.
66:56Yeah, I do just worry a tiny bit that two guys can't, like, be massive hits from this offense.
67:01Yeah. And I think that is maybe the hesitation here for me to get, like, wide receiver one in the range of outcomes for Luther Burden.
67:08But the good part about this is if Colson Loveland misses any time, if Roma Dunzey misses any time.
67:13Like, these guys, like Khalif Raymond or – I kind of think, like, John A.
67:17Walker is even good a little bit. Very, very deep stuff.
67:20But I think he's kind of good a little bit.
67:23But none of these guys are going to come up here and be mainstay target getters.
67:28So, even if, like, a Dunzey misses three games or something, Loveland misses three games, that's how this really works out for
67:34Burden, which is also in the inverse for the other two guys.
67:37Quick point on that. In 2023, Ben Johnson did have the wide receiver four, tied in one, running back 11, and running
67:43back 12 in points per game on his offense.
67:45They can create an environment for that to work.
67:48Matt, I will say, you and I have done multiple shows this summer.
67:51For one of those, I know that you rank Roma Dunzey straight up over Luther Burden.
67:56Has that switched? Has that changed? Or do you still have that?
67:59I probably dropped Burden just, like, behind a Jamison Williams type while he was injured just because it's like, well, I kind
68:05of hope that the Bears offense turns into the Lions offense.
68:08I know that the Lions offense is the Lions offense, and Sam Laporta was dealing with injuries.
68:12But for the most part, I'm going to have those guys, like, kind of touching tags there overall.
68:17But, yeah, to me, like, the only thing I would say in favor of a Dunzey over Burden, which I won't use too much of this.
68:24You can go back to a bunch of lie and listen to that show.
68:28Yeah, listen to that. It's just like, I've actually seen a long extended stretch, like eight weeks of a season, where Ben
68:34Johnson ran his entire offense through Roma Dunzey, and he was good and productive while doing it.
68:39But for Burden, it is still mostly, like, the per route, this, that, and the other, which all occurred when a Dunzey
68:45wasn't on the field, which is just a small note that I do think matters here if we're talking full ceiling outcomes for Burden.
68:51But, yeah, again, the take is, number one, draft Bears.
68:54And number two, you don't have to hate one to like the other.
68:58You can like both of these guys and don't participate in the internet culture war that tells you that you have to do otherwise.
69:04But with that, we're going to take our next quick break.
69:07We come back. We've got more bold predictions. We'll get into that right after this.
69:11All right, we're back. And before we get into more bold predictions, reminder for all of you out there, because if this
69:17is your last minute, you're just now tuning into the show, you're preparing for your drafts.
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69:31New Yahoo Fantasy Plus and Ultra subscribers can get a 25% off the first year, a little discount there on your annual subscription fee through September 7th.
69:39All right? That stops at 1.59 p.m. PT. 11.59 p.m.
69:41PT to be exact. All right? So you need to get on that.
69:45Claim your 25% off today. Claim your 25% off today.
69:48Yahoo Fantasy.com slash plus. The boys here plus our friends all across the country.
69:52All our analysts contributed to Yahoo Fantasy Ultra. Who was up until midnight updating his?
69:56I mean, Boone. A little bit later than that.
69:58I was going to say, Boone hasn't slept in weeks.
70:01Okay? Because he's just cranking through. As we can tell by the camp's kind of a Quintosh on Jackets.
70:06He's just cranking through updates, baby. So again, you folks who are just – if you've listened to the shows all summer,
70:12you can use a Yahoo Fantasy Ultra subscription. If you're just now tuning in, you definitely need to get onto this 25% off discount.
70:18So go ahead and get into that. Speaking of getting into things, Boone, let's get into your bold prediction here.
70:24We're going to tight ends with this block. So I wanted to talk about the elite tight ends in some way.
70:30I wanted to do like a bit of a different bold prediction.
70:33This is a weird one. It's very weird. It's a start in week three.
70:37It's no. It's something that has never happened before though.
70:39So four tight ends are going to finish among the top 10 receptions leaders this season.
70:44Oh, okay. And this is – That's one out for us, buddy.
70:47This is specifically looking at those top four guys.
70:49I mean, we could get lucky and someone else jumps in there.
70:53But we're looking at the top four. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride.
70:56Those are obvious. Colston Loveland, who we just touched on.
70:58We were talking about the Bears. The volume that he was getting last season puts him in that conversation.
71:04And then Tyler Warren on the Colts. I mean, bit of an injury scare in the summer here.
71:09Seems like he's going to be fine for week one.
71:11And he's another guy that is kind of the de facto number one receiver in his offense.
71:16Led his team in targets last year. But this is also weird to me that like we've had multiple tight ends finish
71:22inside the top 10 reception leaders before. It's happened a couple times.
71:25I mean, especially even recently. McBride and Kyle Pitts did it last season.
71:29Bowers and McBride the year before. Ertz and Kelsey had a year where they did it.
71:33There was one year, guys. And Harmon, don't look at my screen.
71:36Where three tight ends made the cut. And that was back in 2011.
71:4011. It was Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham. And I could not believe the other name that just barely snuck in there.
71:46Does anyone want to venture a guess? Was it Gary Barnage?
71:49No, but I love Gary Barnage. It was a shocking season that he had that one year.
71:532011. Yep. It's not. I don't trust Harmon here.
71:56How could you not trust me? That's even more insulting.
71:58I don't think it was Greg Olson. No, it's not Greg Olson.
72:02It's so weird. Do you want to venture a guess?
72:04Do you want me to just give it to you?
72:07Delaney Walker? No. Ooh, Delaney Walker is a good guess.
72:10Brandon Pettigrew. Oh, gross. How gross is that? That's disgusting.
72:12And it was only 83 catches. But that year, I guess, it was a little lower.
72:17That's a lot back then. For a tight end, especially.
72:20I mean, it was definitely 472. It was 700 and something.
72:23Yeah. What a weird, weird name to pull there.
72:25To that point, I'm just looking at last year's totals.
72:28Matt, I guarantee you, you cannot name the third and fourth reception leaders at tight end who actually ranked and tied at 14th.
72:34Well, I actually can because I haven't pulled up here.
72:37For the people out there that did not cheat, it is Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson.
72:41Like Dalton Schultz being up there. Yeah, it's Dalton Schultz and new Dalton Schultz.
72:45Right. As the 14th highest player in terms of receptions of running backs, wide receivers, tight ends last year, I think signals
72:51your point where it's not like they have to have the best fantasy season to do it, even though I love drafting those top four tight ends.
72:58Most of them, I'd say. You can just kind of backdoor your way into doing it just when things are funneled in your direction.
73:05Yeah. The Schultz and Ferguson ones, a little boosted by injury as well.
73:08But that happens, right? That totally happens. And for me, we've talked about going running back early.
73:13We've talked about the receiver values you can kind of get.
73:16And, you know, the third, fourth, fifth rounds or so you can find a way to sneak in one of these elite tight ends.
73:22And I think it's going to be totally worthwhile.
73:25And again, Bowers is going to have just an absolutely incredible season.
73:28McBride might take a step back, but is still the number one receiver in that offense.
73:32Colson Loveland. I mean, I mentioned that the volume that he was getting down the stretch last year, 48 targets combined in
73:38his last four contests when you include the playoffs, right?
73:4110 targets in each game. Good player? Yeah. Very good player.
73:44And then Warren, before all the injuries, we've talked about how good he was for fantasy, tight end six up until week 10.
73:50Most targets on the team. But also, if you just take what he was doing up until week 10, before he got a little dinged up.
73:58And then, of course, Daniel Jones gets hurt. Yeah.
74:00He was playing at an 85 catch pace before that all happened.
74:03And that would have made him 12th last year.
74:06So right on the cusp of potentially being in the top 10.
74:09So all of these guys have a chance to be the leading pass catcher on their team.
74:14And I think there's a very good argument to make to draft them in fantasy and for them to have difference making years.
74:20Tyler Warren is the guy who really screws up like my drafts a lot where it's, I want to hit that running
74:26back, running back, then wide receiver, wide receiver kind of run.
74:29And then sometimes in that fifth round, I want to double back for another receiver.
74:33But then he's sitting there. 47th overall player right now on ADP from a Yahoo standpoint.
74:37Fourth round pick. I do really love clicking Tyler Warren there.
74:40I love doing the show with you guys because Hayden hates Tyler Warren.
74:44And I love him this year. He's one of the players that we disagree on most.
74:48It's a good thing he's not sitting there. I could not wait to escape it.
74:52You think there's a chance Hayden's going to listen to this show?
74:56Absolutely not. Yeah, no chance. Okay. All right. My bold prediction here for the tight end position.
75:00By the way, Brandon Pettigrew, A3 catches 777 yards.
75:03So we were right. From? Where do you go to school?
75:06Oklahoma State. Wow. Oh, Matt Harmon. First round pick.
75:08Yeah, first round pick. Eric Ebron was there too.
75:10Scott Lenihan, that offensive coordinator. Good for you. They led the NFL in pass attempts that year.
75:15Wow. Calvin Johnson led the NFL in receiving yards.
75:18So there you go. I can't remember a lot of things, but I can't remember where guys went to.
75:23Dude, listen. I was locked in on the draft.
75:25I love it. Yeah, me too. Cam Newton's here, baby.
75:28All right. Fourth bold prediction for me here is a tight end as well.
75:32Terrence Ferguson. Oh. I'm not going to say it.
75:34Here we go. Oh, I love it. Terrence Ferguson.
75:37I was like, oh, he breaks out. Tell you what.
75:39Terrence Ferguson finishes with more receiving yards than Devontae Adams this year.
75:43I love it. That's a bold prediction, baby. Put that one on the headline.
75:46Here's the deal. Devontae Adams, good player. I do think he's been in some form of decline for the last couple of years.
75:53Not a lot to stay healthy all 17 games.
75:55Love Devontae Adams. Want to be wrong about that.
75:58But I also think Terrence Ferguson, man, is just on like a rocket ship upwards.
76:02He's playing all over the field in training camp.
76:04Great report from Nate Adkins who had a quote from him where he's like, yeah, I'm lining up at Z, X, Y, like moving all over the formation.
76:12He's basically their third receiver. He also might be the fastest player on the team as well.
76:16So he's going to be a vertical guy. I just keep moving him up my tight end rankings to the point that,
76:22you know, I'm not going to have him as a top 12 tight end.
76:26But if you want to take him as like your number two tight end, stick him on the end of your bench, see what happens.
76:33I think if the Rams offense is going to be good this year, they need a breakout from Terrence Ferguson because like
76:39just relying on everything to run back last year and be exactly the same that never works.
76:44And like when teams do that, they get banged the next year.
76:47I think how the Rams can stave off some regression after being the best offense in the NFL last year is they need something else to change.
76:54They need another dimension. I think Terrence Ferguson is the most obvious one to do that as their vertical player.
77:00I know. Go ahead. Don't. By all means. I know people hate when we do something like this, but I'm going to
77:06say it that if Terrence Ferguson was listed as a wide receiver instead of a tight end, I think he goes in the 12th round of fancy drafts.
77:13That's where Debo Samuel and Jacoby Myers are going right now on Yahoo.
77:17I mean, the reason being is he had the most unique role of maybe any skill player in the NFL last season
77:23where 15 of his 31 targets were 20 plus yards on the field.
77:26They basically replaced two to at well with Terrence Ferguson out of those 13 personnel looks.
77:31Now, everything that we've gotten from beat writers is, oh, they can still keep doing that.
77:35What they want to do is give them the ball quickly against linebackers and underneath defenders and let them run out of the catch.
77:42So I can't wait to see this. Like to me, he is a real difference maker this year and he kind of
77:48viewed as his main player because he was just a spike.
77:51We got 11 catches last year and I'm saying he's going to beat Devante Adams.
77:55That is a lot. But just to your point before we throw it to you here, Boone, like one of the getting
78:01out of all those formations and being able to do a lot of different things.
78:05This team hired Cliff Kingsbury to their offensive staff this year.
78:08And this is where like Nate and I have been talking about on 301 about how these teams are going to run
78:14with more tempo and pace and everything. This is a big part of the Rams are going to do this because they
78:20hired Kingsbury and being able to stay in 13 personnel, but then go to the snap fast, like run a lot of plays.
78:26But you've got to have Terrence Ferguson split out of 13.
78:29Guess who's probably not in the field. It's not Devante Adams.
78:32Yeah. Betting against the receiver returns 34 in December is probably a pretty good approach here.
78:36But also we had five games last year where Ferguson saw at least three targets, which is not a high bar, just three targets.
78:43He posted 50 yards and or a touchdown in four of those five.
78:46One of those catches is 50 yards. He just has that in his bag.
78:50And if we're talking about like draft strategy, I'm looking at it where I'm definitely trying to get one of the elite tight ends.
78:57If I don't, I'm going after the injury discount guys, Tucker craft, George Kittle.
79:00You can even count Dalton Kikade kind of in the injury discount guys a little bit there.
79:05If I miss out on them and I do have to go very late, I'm grabbing two of the upside players like
79:11Chica Conquo and like Terrence Ferguson, who just goes so late.
79:14You can even scoop him up off the waiver wire after the draft.
79:18Tight end 23, 128th overall player. It's literally free money.
79:20Josh, we got to get your bold prediction in here because we got to get to break.
79:25But also, I think this might be our first negative one so far.
79:28Yeah. I mean, so let's finish this thing up.
79:31By the way, if you're in a tight end premium league, you have to draft Terrence Ferguson.
79:36It's mandated. Final prediction here. Harold Fannin finishes outside of the top 12 tight ends.
79:40If we're looking at it right now, Harold Fannin is the tight end seven over on Yahoo.
79:44And yes, we're talking once again about the Cleveland Browns, but I think for good reason because it ties directly into your Casey Concepcion point, right?
79:51Last year, 43 of Harold Fannin's 76 receptions were caught less than five yards down the field.
79:56Per PFF, 53 of his 76 receptions were on first three targets.
79:59Todd Munkin, when he arrived, took a look at all the tape and said, you know what?
80:04That's not how I want my passing offense to go.
80:07I want to draft Casey Concepcion and I want to draft Denzel Boston.
80:10And what we have seen, and this is just the preseason, is that Casey Concepcion is his easy button.
80:15And there's going to be some real difficult times this year for the Browns.
80:19And there's going to be a section of the playbook that says, okay, when we need a jolt, when we need a
80:25boost, we need to move the sticks just to sustain this drive more than three plays because Quinchon Judkins got stuffed on the first two carries.
80:32Right. Only in the first two weeks. Then we're just going to manufacture touches to Casey Concepcion and allow him to run after the catch.
80:39And I think that infinitely, like majorly takes away from Harold Fannin and what he's going to do in the system.
80:45I mean, the rumors started even before the draft that they were going to go after a receiver or multiple receivers.
80:50Yeah. We talked about it at that point, but it was like, you had to start bumping Fannin down a little bit, right?
80:57Because you knew there was going to be more target competition.
81:00It's a very simple argument right now. He has one, maybe two actual receivers that could get involved.
81:05It's unfortunate, but yeah, it's a great year. Last year, he is still a good player.
81:09Really good player. To expect him to get back to that level in terms of volume and fantasy production, I think it's hard to see.
81:16Yeah. Fringe top 70 player in ADP right now.
81:18Just can't click that button on Harold Fannin. We are going to take our last quick break.
81:23We come back. We are going to tell you who our fantasy MVPs are for this season.
81:27We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
81:30Welcome to Draft Day Blueprint presented by Orgain Creatine.
81:33Whether you're training like it's game day or preparing to battle it out on Draft Day, Orgain Creatine Health gives you the
81:39muscle strength to fuel harder and push farther. Upgrade your performance today with Orgain.
81:43And today, the Draft Day Blueprint. We are telling you who are our fantasy MVPs for the 2026 NFL season.
81:48These are the players that you guys just need to draft.
81:51If you don't draft them, it's over. Sorry. Better luck next year.
81:54Josh, who is your fantasy MVP? Saquon Barkley definitely takes some creatine.
81:58And that's why he is my pick for this.
82:00Why would people take some other running backs ahead of him that have never finished as the running back one overall?
82:06I'm talking James Cook, Chase Brown. That's what it is in consensus rankings up until a few days ago.
82:11That was also Ashton. Did you say Chase Brown?
82:13Yes. In consensus rankings ahead of Saquon Barkley. Look, this entire offseason, you've heard the narrative of, oh, it's all about the passing game for the Eagles.
82:21You know, Sean Manning, what can you pluck out of Jalen Hurts?
82:24What is Devante Smith going to do in the wide receiver one role on the team?
82:28Makai Lemon, you know, a first round pick. None of it matters unless the running game gets back to what it was a couple years ago.
82:35Explosive runs. That changes the math. That's the foundation of this offense.
82:39That is the most important thing. And I think Saquon Barkley this year is last year's version of CMC where people were burned.
82:45Then they don't want to make that same quote unquote mistake in the draft.
82:49Whereas to me, it was just environmental and not an individual thing.
82:52Saquon Barkley is going to maybe be the overall number one player in fantasy football this season.
82:57One of the easiest schedules across the board at every position for the Eagles this year.
83:01We just need that offensive line to stay healthy.
83:03Which it is right now. Yeah, that's a huge key to this.
83:07At least in this earth moment. We'll see by the way, Brad.
83:10Okay, Boone, who is your fantasy MVP? I mean, it's hard for a tight end to be fantasy MVP, but I'm going with Brock Bowers, man.
83:17Like he's coming off an injury riddled season where he still finished as the tight end four in fantasy points per game.
83:23Now he's healthy. We're going to get back to that rookie year where he had 112 catches, almost 1,200 yards and five touchdowns.
83:29But it's just going to be that much better.
83:32Clint Kubiak showing up. Now we have some better quarterbacks that could stabilize that position.
83:36They still haven't really addressed receiver. He is the very clear number one target.
83:40They've made some moves on the offensive line. They're also getting some guys back healthy this year.
83:44And if you look at year one to year two for him, even with the injury, we saw the touchdown scoring improve.
83:50And that's what needs to happen here. Touchdowns can be volatile.
83:53Trey McBride had that finally happen for him last year.
83:56He got a massive touchdown total. So I think that's key is we're going to see the touchdowns continue to rise here.
84:02Brock Bowers is going to put up video game style numbers and potentially finish as like a top three wide receiver in
84:08terms of his fantasy scoring, which we have seen tight ends do before Travis Kelsey did it back in 2020.
84:13He has that kind of upset. And back in 2020, that season you decided for Travis Kelsey.
84:18He averaged 17.4 fancy points. The next closest tight end was 14.
84:21But then you just go down to the tight end five.
84:24That was 9.4 fancy points. So that gives you an advantage of six points against the tight end five.
84:29That's not even talking about the tight end 10, 11, 12.
84:32So it's like this instant. And how many of your fancy matchups come down to just that few amount of points?
84:38So Brock Bowers could bring you that in round two.
84:41I was going to say, that's why Boone, I actually disagree with you that you think a tight end couldn't be a fantasy MVP.
84:47If he's that much better than all the other tight ends, that's actually pretty damn valuable.
84:52So and I think there's a path from it.
84:54That quote we showed earlier, Clint Kubiak saying Brock Bowers is a football robot from heaven and you're fading him.
85:00Unbelievable stuff here. Okay. My fantasy football MVP. Boone, we actually debated this player not too, too long ago versus Drake London.
85:06And you're on the London side. I'm on the Nico Collins side.
85:09We made some good points, I think, on both sides.
85:12But since then, I think I've only come stronger in my belief that Nico Collins is the correct answer.
85:17And he is my fantasy MVP for this year because I think you're going to be able to take him at a
85:23late second round value right now in this earth moment.
85:26He is the 23rd player off the board in Yahoo drafts.
85:29I am ranked as the 16th overall player. He is the player I'm most ahead of consensus on in the top two rounds.
85:35And there's a lot of reasons for this. The fact that Jaden Higgins went down, which is a huge bummer.
85:40I think that's only going to push more work to Nico Collins.
85:44They trade for Kayshawn Booty. That's fine. Booty is a little bit of like a sacrificial player, not a high target target option.
85:50Nico Collins is a high target option. And Josh, you made this point where we were talking about the fourth round wide
85:56receivers like, oh, who's going to be this year's JSN, this year's JSN.
85:59I actually think the right answer is Nico Collins because this is a team in Houston that's Claymore heavy personnel packages.
86:05He's going to be on the field for all those snaps because he is a true, true X receiver, an elite press man coverage beater.
86:12He's going to get those big vertical in-breaking routes that Jackson Smith and Jigba cooked on last year.
86:17CJ Stroud is a top 10 quarterback by EPA per play last year.
86:20I know he was the worst quarterback we've ever seen in the playoffs.
86:24Actually, 10th lowest EPA per drop back since the year 2007.
86:27So I get that was terrible. But in the regular season, he was good enough to get Nico Collins the ball.
86:33He's been Nico Collins quarterback for the vast majority of the last three seasons.
86:36And this is the number two receiver in yards per route run during that stretch.
86:40So all that has to happen here. Touchdowns. I was going to say hamstrings.
86:44Actually, hamstrings got to hang on for Nico Collins.
86:47Other than that, I think we get there. Yeah.
86:49I mean, 14 in-zone targets last year and just four touchdowns.
86:52So to me, he was 26th in red zone production for fantasy last season, despite having the eighth best opportunity.
86:58So that just has to do everyone's favorite term of naturally regressing into the positive direction.
87:02I've never heard anyone say naturally regressing into the positive, but I think that's a good one.
87:07I might say progression, but apparently that's incorrect. So yes, he just has to score more touchdowns this year.
87:12And he should be the go-to player for that.
87:14Love it. Boom. I mean, Nico Collins. You can just say I'm right.
87:18I've been on Nico Collins for a while. We had a stretch a couple of years ago early in the season.
87:23He was leading the league in receiving yards. He's shown he can do that over stretches.
87:28So yeah, there is a much bigger season here for him.
87:31And with the injury to Jaden Higgins, which is awful, it could finally happen.
87:35I am so pumped up for Nico Collins. I'm also so pumped up to finally be able to reveal to the people
87:41our fall in-season lineup here for the Yahoo Fantasy forecast.
87:43It is going to be our best year ever.
87:46It's going to start off on Sundays where I'm going to be on Josh and Hayden's show with Ray Garvin as the
87:52four of us are going to recap all of Sunday's actions.
87:55That's going to hit this feed every Monday morning.
87:57You'll love to see it. On Mondays, Boone joins me for another season of the People's Panic Meter.
88:02He's also going to share his top waiver wire targets every week.
88:05And I've been told we are not allowed to be fast on the waiver wire.
88:09We got to beef that waiver wire out. So get excited about that.
88:13On Tuesdays, Ray Garvin joins me once again for another season of Data Dump.
88:17On Wednesdays, Nate Tice is back on the Wednesday show.
88:19But a little bit of a twist now. We're going to be doing some in-season Dynasty debates and those big debates that
88:25you're going to have at your Flex spot every single week.
88:28So Fantasy Film Room meets Dynasty Debates. You'll love to see that.
88:32On Thursdays, Mr. Josh Norris joins me to preview the weekend's action.
88:35That's going to be absolutely electric. And by the way, Hayden Winks, yeah, I've been saying it's enough already of me having
88:41to rant to myself for 20 minutes on these primetime recaps.
88:44Well, every Monday and Thursday night, right after those games end, Hayden Winks is going to be live with me to recap
88:50the Monday and Thursday night, at least for week one, the Wednesday night game.
88:54So you absolutely love to see that. Sunday nights, I am still going to be doing the solo rants.
88:59So, yeah, I got to get a little bit of talk.
89:02I thought Boone might not start with your show until week three, though.
89:05So the first two weeks of the season, no, you never know.
89:09We'll see. That's when the season starts for Boone.
89:11It starts in week three. It's always great when I can make the same joke five times in an episode.
89:17It was really good. It was good the first two times.
89:20Okay, I'm done. This last time. Let's get out of here then.
89:23A little bit of a hit or miss. Boys, absolutely great show.
89:26We have our bold predictions in. None of this will be correct, but we had fun doing it.
89:31And hopefully we could get you some last, last minute takes here for your fantasy football draft.
89:36So that's going to do it for us today.
89:38On Tuesday, Ray Garvin joins me for Data Dump as we preview week one.
89:42It is finally here. These games are happening. That's going to be live on this YouTube channel at 4 p.m.
89:47Eastern. Until then, we are out.