PodcastFrom Yahoo Fantasy Forecast
Bust alert! 6 offenses with major red flags that could ruin your fantasy season
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 24 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 20, 2026
Published
Thu, August 20, 2026
29
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceBijan RobinsonBreece HallBrock BowersBryce LanceChris OlaveDalton SchultzDrake LondonFernando MendozaGarrett WilsonJack BechJayden HigginsJeremiyah LoveJonathan Taylor
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeInjury85:11
Harmon and Nate are fading Pierce due to ongoing injury concerns and the lack of positive news regarding his health. They consider him a 'red line' player who is too risky to draft given the depth of other receivers in his tier.
Insight pageNegativeRole93:30
Matt Harmon notes that Pierce's role as a deep-threat receiver creates inconsistency, as high average depth of target (aDOT) often correlates with volatile fantasy production. While Pierce had big games with Philip Rivers, he also recorded several 'zero' games, and his fit in the current offense alongside Keenan Allen and Josh Downs remains a concern.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeValue53:48
Matt Harmon has moved Bijan Robinson down to his third overall player, behind Ja'Marr Chase, due to the risk that the Falcons' offense could struggle significantly.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeUsage118:21
Matt Harmon remains comfortable with Breece Hall at his 32nd overall ADP, noting that the team paid him and is expected to feature him heavily. While Hall is currently banged up, Harmon expects him to be the focal point of the backfield.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection65:09
Harmon identifies Bowers as his TE1, projecting him to receive roughly 130 targets if healthy. He expects the Raiders' passing attack to be funneled through Bowers, drawing a comparison to Jordan Reed's 2015 season (114 targets, 87 receptions, 952 yards, 11 TDs) as an upper-middle projection for his role.
Insight pageBryce Lance
PositiveBreakout107:28
Matt Harmon is high on Bryce Lance, noting he was a top-50 prospect for him due to his elite athleticism and ability to take the top off the defense. Lance is expected to have a meaningful role in the Saints' offense, which could help open up space for Chris Olave.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveValue99:09
Matt Harmon is significantly ahead of the market on Chris Olave, ranking him 22nd overall compared to his 35th overall ADP. Harmon argues Olave has proven he can be a WR1 and compares his upside favorably to Drake London and DeVonta Smith, noting that the only major 'trap door' for his production is his own health.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
PositiveRole23:26
Nate Tice suggests that with the injuries to the Texans' wide receiver corps, Dalton Schultz could emerge as a primary beneficiary of targets, noting that the opportunity might be 'staring us in the face.'
Insight pageDrake London
PositiveRole58:34
Matt Harmon is concerned about Drake London's role, noting that he and Kyle Pitts have historically occupied the same areas of the field, and he worries that new additions like Jahan Dotson or Zachary Branch could impact London's target share.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
PositiveProjection68:55
Harmon believes Mendoza looks ready to start and expects him to take over the starting quarterback role well before the team's bye week, noting that his preseason performance was solid.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
PositiveUsage118:43
Matt Harmon is willing to draft Garrett Wilson again despite past frustrations, citing his high target share potential (previously 34% in the first six weeks of last season). Harmon believes Geno Smith is capable of getting Wilson the ball in Frank Reich's RPO-heavy offense.
Insight pageJack Bech
PositiveRole77:01
Harmon highlights that Besh is being used in 'power slot' snaps, similar to how Cooper Kupp was utilized in the Rams' offense, suggesting he will be used correctly as a key auxiliary player.
Insight pageJayden Higgins
PositiveInjury7:23
Jaden Higgins suffered a season-ending ACL tear during Wednesday's practice. Matt Harmon and Nate Tice both viewed him as a better pro than prospect and a key sleeper candidate for the Texans' offense, noting his role as a blocker and Z-receiver was a variable in their optimism for the team.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeUsage43:39
Matt Harmon notes that Jeremiah Love's usage as a bell-cow back led to an injury, but acknowledges that when healthy, his workload justifies his high draft position.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeUsage83:46
Harmon and Nate express concern regarding Taylor's effectiveness due to Daniel Jones's injury, which may limit the team's ability to operate under center. Statistics show Taylor is significantly more successful under center (5th in success rate) than in the shotgun (20th), where his efficiency drops to levels comparable to A.J. Dillon.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
NegativeInjury99:12
Jordan Tyson is dealing with a persistent hamstring injury that has plagued him throughout the year, leading to expectations that he may miss time into the regular season, potentially until October. Harmon notes that Tyson's explosive movement style may contribute to his recurring muscle injuries.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeSleeper85:56
Harmon remains a fan of Downs as a late-round dart throw, though he acknowledges that his ceiling has been slightly lowered due to the team's overall offensive concerns.
Insight pageJuwan Johnson
PositiveValue108:29
Matt Harmon recommends drafting Juwan Johnson as a cheap, late-round tight end flyer (TE12-13 range). He notes that Johnson is a useful receiving option and should see increased opportunity early in the season while Jordan Tyson is sidelined.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
PositiveBust113:39
Matt Harmon advises against drafting Kenyon Sadiq, noting he is currently injured and that Mason Taylor is the preferred tight end target in the Jets' offense.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeValue54:02
Matt Harmon is slightly behind ADP (72nd overall) on Kyle Pitts, noting that while he is not egregiously ranked, he is skeptical about the Falcons' ability to support three fantasy-relevant players simultaneously.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveProjection35:12
Matt Harmon is bullish on Marvin Harrison Jr. relative to his ADP (78th-79th overall), as he believes the Cardinals' offense will perform better than the low projections (26th in DVOA/sportsbooks) suggest.
Insight pageMason Taylor
PositiveSleeper113:51
Matt Harmon identifies Mason Taylor as a sneaky late-round dart throw in the Jets' offense. He highlights Taylor's blocking ability and receiving potential, suggesting he is the tight end to target over Kenyon Sadiq.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
PositiveSleeper79:19
Harmon views Mayer as a sneaky deep sleeper, noting that his blocking and receiving skill set is a perfect fit for the current Raiders offensive scheme.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveProjection35:19
Matt Harmon plans to be ahead of ADP (105th overall) on Michael Wilson, citing his belief that the Cardinals' offense will exceed the low market expectations.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
NegativeUsage65:12
Washington is viewed as a backup running back who will receive touches to spell Gentey, but he is not expected to be a primary fantasy option, currently being drafted at 127th overall.
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveProjection14:56
Matt Harmon ranks Nico Collins 17th overall, ahead of his 23rd overall ADP. Harmon believes Collins is set to 'eat' this year as the primary receiver in the Texans' shift toward heavier personnel packages, including 13 and 12 personnel, where he can dominate targets.
Insight pageTank Dell
NegativeUsage22:30
Tank Dell's physical status is currently a monitor-only situation. While he was a 'baller' as a rookie, the team has been cautious with his usage in camp, leaving his exact role and readiness for the start of the season uncertain.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeValue35:06
Matt Harmon is lower on Trey McBride than his ADP (27th overall) suggests, not due to talent, but because he expects other pass-catchers in the Cardinals offense to command more targets, potentially limiting McBride's fantasy output.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveValue85:19
Both analysts are high on Warren, viewing him as the most secure and productive option in the Colts' offense regardless of quarterback play. They are comfortable drafting him at his current ADP in the 40s.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Big show for you here today. It's one I loved doing last year.
0:04We're running it back this year. Nate Tice joins me to identify six red flag offenses.
0:08These are the teams that are projected to not be very good by a wide collection of sources, and yet we are
0:14drafting their players a little bit too high in fantasy football for comfort.
0:18Should we be worried about teams like the Arizona Cardinals, the Indianapolis Colts, the Las Vegas Raiders, considering a wide variety of
0:24sources are not projecting their offense to be very good this year, and yet we are taking these players high.
0:30What about the Atlanta Falcons? Can you click on B.
0:33John Robinson and Drake London when that offense does not look great right now?
0:37We discuss it. We break it down. We end on a positive note, too, some teams that might be a little undervalued.
0:43All that and more coming up on today's show.
0:45Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:48Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, and it is a hell of a day to talk ball and joining me to do
0:55just that for a show I am very excited about.
0:57It is a good pal, a man who, you know, he's never on shows.
1:01He's never doing a lot of talking. We're kidding.
1:04This guy loves talking ball. It's Nate Tice. Nate, what's going on, man?
1:08How you doing? I don't think anyone's happier than me doing a whole bunch of shows and being tired of talking like I was yesterday than my wife.
1:15And it's just me just being a great listener and a great husband last night.
1:20But great to see you, Matt. Always happy to be here.
1:23And I'm very excited for today's show. This is always a good one.
1:26That's funny. I'm getting the opposite feedback in my house.
1:29I'm like, we are having a conversation over dinner last night.
1:32My wife's like, you haven't said anything other than, hmm.
1:35In like, in 90 seconds, you know, three minutes.
1:38She's like, are you okay? I'm like, I've been talking all day, man.
1:41That's it. I've been talking all day. I'm ready to just listen.
1:45Like, you just give me information. I'm ready to take this thing in.
1:48She was used to the tennis match or really me just, you know, sometimes just beating the ball against the wall of just how much I talk.
1:56And as people that listen to this show now, and then so also, I think that's what it threw her off, how quiet it was last night.
2:04And she was like, are you mad? And I'm like, no, I promise I'm not mad.
2:08I just have said a lot of the words of the English language, some correctly, some incorrectly.
2:13But yeah. The correct part of it is less important.
2:16But we are going to be very correct on today's show, Nate, because this is a topic that you and I covered last August.
2:22I wanted to run this show back. You know, typically, it's they want you to do, you know, you know how it is.
2:29The producers, the boss is like, we got it.
2:31We got to have a bus show. You know, we're doing sleepers break.
2:35We got to have busts. No, I'm not doing that.
2:38OK, because it's too negative. It's not the vibe of this show.
2:41However, the way we're going to spin this is just like we did last year.
2:45We are going to take a look at the teams that have the players going highest in Yahoo ADP over the last
2:52seven days that are most at odds with how good their offenses are projected to be.
2:56You guys remember this? If you watch this show last year, I put together a whole, as Nate called it last year,
3:02beautiful mind spreadsheet here of where these teams are projected to be in terms of their offensive rankings by a wide variety of sources.
3:09We've got DVOA projections from FTN's season preview guide.
3:12We got their Vegas projections from sports books. We got Mike Clay's projections.
3:15OK, so we're taking in what I'm calling the wisdom of the crowd.
3:19All right. Three different sources here to kind of find a consensus for how high or low, how good or bad this offense is projected to be.
3:27And then we're weighing it against how high those players are being drafted in fantasy.
3:31The top three players, non-quarterbacks drafted from these teams here.
3:34So, again, that's the formula. That's the gap. We are going to get into that.
3:38That is the big topic of today's show to try to find some of these guys who maybe could end up being fantasy disappointments based on this.
3:45However, before we get that, we've got a little exciting promo to read for you guys here.
3:50You know, I've been beating you over the head with this and I'm going to continue to do it until the big
3:56event because it's going to be an awesome Yahoo Fantasy Draft weekend.
4:00That's right. If you're in the Buffalo area, come hang out with us.
4:03Yahoo Fantasy Draft weekend presented by Verse. It is coming to Dick's House of Sport in the Buffalo area on Saturday, August 29th, 3 to 7 p.m.
4:11I'm going to be there. Justin Boone is going to be there.
4:14Josh Norris. Ever heard of him? Look at that smiling face over there, okay?
4:18He's going to be there for a special live edition of the Yahoo Fantasy forecast.
4:23If you're getting ready for your drafts, this is the place to be.
4:26No other place. You shouldn't be anywhere else. You should be here with us.
4:30Bring your league mates. Bring your friends. Come hang out with us.
4:34We will see you in Amherst, New York on Saturday, August 29th at 3 p.m.
4:38Also, we've got some fantasy fallout to cover today.
4:40And it's not fun news because it's injury related.
4:43Let's head on down south to Houston, Nate, where we've got to discuss a season-ending injury for Jaden Higgins tore his ACL
4:49during Wednesday's practice, according to Ian Rappaport. Man, this one's a bummer.
4:52We just talked about the AFC South yesterday on Football 301 for the division preview.
4:57And we were discussing how I think Higgins was a nice sleeper candidate heading into the season.
5:01And here we go. He's out for the season.
5:04So a reaction to Houston losing its second year potential breakout receiver in Jaden Higgins, who is apparently having a really good camp.
5:10Yeah, he's done nothing but help himself or help his stock or help his standing, however you want to put it, whether
5:17I think that's just even in my mind and how I hold him and how I view him.
5:22I think I like Higgins better as a pro than I did as a prospect.
5:26I think I'm safe in saying that. I think you and I were kind of in lockstep, I think, as prospect-wise.
5:32And so I was actually a little bit more encouraged him going into year two and what that meant for the Texas
5:38offense because there are parts of the Texas offense.
5:40I am that we talked about this yesterday for a while that there's more positive signs, like as far as just the
5:47old line can be actually decent, just OK. The run game could be decent, just OK, which is just better.
5:52It's been. But also part of that is, yeah, Nico Collins hopefully being healthy.
5:56But then the auxiliary pieces around it, the second tight end and Marlon Klein, then these receivers as well.
6:02But every receiver that you're like at first, when I would say six months ago, I'm like, they might have too many mouths to feed.
6:09I don't know who there's going to get the reps, how it's going to work out.
6:13And now it's like, all right, well, Tank Dell still working back.
6:17Jalen Noel hasn't practiced. I don't think at all on camp.
6:20Xavier Hutchinson is still there. But then Higgins was supposed to be the guy.
6:24So this is kind of a bummer because the Higgins helping himself last year was part of my optimism with the Texans.
6:30It's not the end all be all, but he was a fairly big variable.
6:34I think in my optimism, even when we talked about this stuff yesterday, just little stuff like blocking, you know, and just
6:40opening up and just opening up other people's roles, I think, on the in the passing game.
6:45So, yeah, this is kind of a bummer. And it's not even one where it's a high ankle sprain.
6:50It's like, all right, see it at Halloween. You know, this is like, oh, this is it.
6:55Bump done. All right. And then but it's not like I can point at somebody else that's immediately going to step up.
7:01So, yeah, big bummer. Yeah, it's just kind of a committee approach to this.
7:05Yeah. Yeah, because I'm just not quite sure how everybody slots in right now.
7:09And I mean, I don't know how you could be based on the fact that we've got injury situations with the two most intriguing guys.
7:16I actually filmed a little solo vertical video on this one that I'm going to post after this show is over.
7:22So you guys have an iso ball. I went.
7:24I'm clear. I like I just had a take burning a hole in my pocket.
7:29And, you know, we didn't have this show for like another hour.
7:32And then, of course, you know, I'm trying to trying to edit it, you know, so it looks good.
7:37And I ran out of time. Didn't post it for the show.
7:41So what a waste. But anyways, I basically broke down kind of four.
7:44I mean, I'm going to post it anyway. So when it goes up, please, you guys could like it.
7:50Check it out. Make me feel better about myself.
7:52Okay. You know, I need the validation from you guys.
7:55That's what I'm here for. Anyways. But you're here anyways.
7:58Here's my take. This is a huge bummer. That was exactly how I let off with it because Jaden Higgins, I'm with you.
8:04You know, he's a better pro than a prospect, especially because he's one of those guys, Nate, that when he's coming to
8:10the NFL, I'm skeptical of him, you know, being typecasted as a pure X receiver because he's 6'4", over 215 pounds.
8:16But with this Texans team, he wasn't going to have to be that.
8:20He was a little bit as a rookie because Nico Collins was on and off the field.
8:25And, of course, that's always part of it. But when he was played as a Z receiver, I thought the film was really good on him.
8:32He was going to add a really dimension to the offense that they needed.
8:36That's number one. The second thing is what I want you guys to all accept right now is that Xavier Hutchinson is
8:42just going to play more than you think. Okay.
8:45Yeah. All right. That's what's going to happen here.
8:47He's a good blocker. He can be the insert player.
8:50That's going to happen. The other thing before we talk about the tank Dell Jalen Noel of it all is that I
8:56really think this does just point us back to Nico Collins, Nate, because Nico Collins, 23rd overall player in Yahoo ADP right now.
9:03I have him ranked 17th overall. I don't think I'm going to budge him any higher than that because I think that's
9:09good enough to reflect like draft Nico Collins in the second round.
9:12Yeah. But this is a team, Nate, that is going to play more heavy personnel this year than they have previously.
9:18Last year, they were getting into those like jumbo six offensive linemen sets.
9:22Yes. A lot of this year. They won't have to do that because they actually have the tight end bodies.
9:28Your boy Marlon Klein, as you were talking about yesterday on the division preview show and some other players that they add in free agency.
9:35And Nico just fits the profile of the guy that can be the single receiver in 13 personnel.
9:40He can be the guy that in even in 12 personnel just dominates targets.
9:44Like everyone's looking for the next Jackson Smith and Jigba among the year two, year three receivers.
9:48Like it could be Negro Collins in that way of a team that gets into heavy personnel packages and dominates on vertical routes.
9:55So I think Nico is just set up to eat this year as long as he stays healthy.
10:00Yeah. And I think that's where it's the main bummer is that it's a lot easier to just go in one week,
10:06just go, all right, if they take away our number one, we just got a clear number two, much like having a
10:12clear number one helps me everything sit. Okay. And I got it.
10:16If Jalen knows healthy, I'm okay with him. Cause I actually had him ahead.
10:20I think you did too. Then Higgins. And the thing about Noel too, is that he can block.
10:25That's, that's one positive with Noel as a slot player.
10:28It's not the downs problem or, you know, the, maybe the, the Colby easily problem or anything like that.
10:33It's, it's that he can actually get in there.
10:35But so that is some positivity, but again, I'd be a lot more optimistic if I had two weeks of glowing camp
10:42reports at a preseason game where I'm watching him.
10:44And then he ended last season healthy. And like last year, he couldn't remember, he couldn't get on the field.
10:50It was really weird. Cause I felt like he was effective, but there, so that's always nagging in my head.
10:55It's like, there's something there. You never know, there might be something missing there.
10:59But like you said, Hutchinson is kind of the Alan Lazard, you know, like Iowa state guys.
11:04They just, it's exactly what I compared him to, by the way, pre-draft was Alan Lazard.
11:09Does the dirty work? Like he's so it's like, yeah, I like him in a real football sense, but he's not, he hasn't been a very effective player.
11:16Statistically underlying stats, everything I test, but he's always going to have a roster spot because of that grittiness.
11:22Um, but that's the thing that doesn't help the passing game, but I still will maintain this, that I think having those
11:28secondary pass catchers matters more in a real football sense and how far the Texans go.
11:33It doesn't change anything for Nico. I think he'll still be productive.
11:36Like you're saying really, what I think is going to drive this offense success is the run game.
11:41Um, and that's going to make it feel better rather than this was just more, I think the cherry on top, once they get to playoff time.
11:49And then it's like, wow, now we got a secondary guy that can really step up and you take away Nico Collins.
11:55So I would say that's the one, maybe silver lining that it's like still the main, most important thing hasn't been hindered.
12:01If that makes sense, which to me is, is making that run game, not crap.
12:05Yeah. As we talked about yesterday, 31st and rushing success rate since they draft CJ Stroud, that is the thing that has to get better.
12:12I think it can get better. Uh, but I do, I do believe Higgins was going to be a decent part of
12:18that as a blocker, but Hutchinson can still bring that just closing the loop on Jalen Noel.
12:23I'm glad to hear you say that. Cause yeah, he's five 11, 201 pounds.
12:27You remember he put up a bunch of weight at, on the bench press, he put up a bunch of reps on the bench press.
12:34Like he's a strong guy that I think can block.
12:37And yet Nate, if you pull up his player comparisons on the player comparison tool at reception, perception.com, it is like the
12:43Matt Harmon fell for it again, hall of fame that players that compare to Jalen Noel.
12:48It's Josh downs, as you mentioned to Jane Reed seasons.
12:50There's a freaking Curtis Samuel season in there. The guys that I think like, can't he be a Z receiver?
12:56Can he play a little bit more? Why is it like, yeah.
12:59And you're always asking and yep. It never happened.
13:02I know. I know. It's so frustrating. And I didn't think Noel would be that guy as a prospect.
13:07I was with you that I thought he could be more of a Z and handle that, but it just never happened as a rookie, you know?
13:15So you kind of have to ask why that is.
13:18And from what I've heard, the team was happy with Noel in the spring and they felt like he had a really good off season.
13:25They were really excited about him to be that slot receiver and kind of, you know, rotate Z slot with Jaden Higgins.
13:31And then he just has been hurt. Like he had the pinky injury.
13:35Then he's had a hamstring injury. So if he can get back to practice, I'm, I'm feeling pretty good about him.
13:41I did move him inside my top one 50 for fantasy.
13:44Like he's a late round dart throw type, stick him on the end of your bench talented player, see what happens.
13:50And then for tank Dell, I just don't know where he's at physically, but the guy as a rookie, he was a baller.
13:56He was an absolute, like ready to be a stud.
13:59You know, he was, he was an awesome player.
14:01Just don't know where he's at physically at this point.
14:04And he's kind of been, they've used him and these, they've used off him in camp.
14:09So that's just one to monitor Nate. But right now I'm going to feel more confident about Noel, but of course, like
14:15if tank Dell proves us wrong and he's out there, you know, he's a baller that I would, I would feel really comfortable with as a second receiver.
14:23Yeah. There's opportunities to be had for whoever steps up.
14:26Maybe it's just Dolan Schultz and it's just staring us in the face.
14:29You know, like that's the thing too. But it's like, but you know, Klein, I still am interested too.
14:35We just saw that tweet from Ray too. But the thing with Noel was my comparison for him was what if Christian
14:41Kirk could block and then the Texans had Christian Kirk and then they drafted Nolan.
14:45I was like, Oh, that's weird. So that's how I viewed him was like kind of intermediate to vertical slot.
14:51But much like you talked about with downs or you want to see more out of downs being that I thought Noel
14:57could be that as well, which again, that's what this offense is going to be more of that more verticalness to the passing game.
15:04It's not a lot of quick hitters at least ideally.
15:06But so that's why I do think that it's just whoever steps up as the second get there's opportunities to be had here.
15:13I really do think that and there's knockout punches once you get into the red zone, because if the run game is
15:19better than you can move balls to juice your situations.
15:22They got a great, great defense. That's going to put them in juicier situation.
15:26So I know that it's even again, if this offense is 18, 16th, 14th, somewhere in that range, there's fancy opportunities to be had here.
15:33Whoever steps up. Second piece of news we have to talk about here, and this is more injuries.
15:38And I want to throw it to you this way.
15:41Nate charges offensive line falling apart. Question mark. Tyler Biotish suffers.
15:44What they're saying is a not they're not saying it's a season ending injury, but they are saying it is a damage
15:50to his ACL additional injuries to his left knee during Tuesday's joint practice against the 49ers.
15:54According to Adam Schefter, Biotish is going to meet with more doctors to try to get more clarity.
16:00Doesn't sound good. Rayshon Slater also hasn't, I think, practiced in two weeks because he's got the patella tendon issue that he's coming back from.
16:07And, you know, maybe he's just trying to rehab work through that.
16:10Okay. They don't quite know who's starting to left guard yet.
16:13You know, Trey Pipkins has been the guy they've they said is the starter, but like we kind of know that experience, what that looks like.
16:20So I'm going to throw it to you this way, Nate.
16:23Are you ready to freak out about your Chargers stocks yet?
16:27Because I know you've got them in the portfolio.
16:29It's it's teetering. It's teetering. We are we are very close to a hard sell here, but no, not yet, because this
16:35was confounding to me during the draft was that I like the beyond shining, which I was like, wow, why did Washington get rid of him?
16:43I think he's an above average center. But then they went and drafted Jake Slaughter on day two, who Slaughter I liked.
16:49And I've said this a few times, but he's was my favorite of this kind of group of day two centers that
16:55were kind of grouped together tier wise. And, you know, bigger guy, pretty good mover, not overly strong, but very smart.
17:01Like he kind of looks exactly how you expect it.
17:04Like how he plays exactly how he looks. I should say he looks like a high school chemistry teacher.
17:09But Slaughter, I was like, well, they're like, oh, we're going to play my guard.
17:13He played like 12 snaps of guard in college at Florida.
17:16It was all primarily center. So that's like even when I graded him, he was a center only prospect to me.
17:22So that was really confusing to me. But then there's a little kind of joke like, well, we know how kind of
17:28charger centers go outside of Bradley Bozeman. And then it was just like, sure enough, here's Bias getting hurt.
17:34So at least they have some background option. But again, we're teetering already.
17:37Slater's hurt. Pipkin's, like you said, we already know what the experience is.
17:41Like you just are kind of now we have a grab bag at guard.
17:45I like cold. I like the cold strain signing and liked it better than other people because he's a fit in his offense.
17:52But that's the thing is that's fine when he's your fifth best starter or a fourth best starter.
17:57And now you can call him maybe your third best starter.
18:00And now that's where the issues lie. It's now the weakest links are getting weaker.
18:04Now the second weakest link was the weakest link.
18:06Now the third weakest link was the weakest link.
18:09You know, those are now moving up. It's the reversal we've talked about with the high end receiver.
18:14So there are some issues there. Having said all that, maybe it's me just defending my projection.
18:19But I do think Mike McDaniel has shown that he's mitigated this, but that's usually at the end of the season, not week one.
18:26So that, you know, kind of going back and forth on it, if you can't tell.
18:30Yeah. I mean, Brandon Thorne's one of the best offensive linemen analysts amongst civilians, right?
18:34Those of us outside the league. And, you know, he puts it really well that this system is certainly more favorable for offense.
18:41Generally, like this Shanahan offense is a little more favorable for offensive linemen, certainly than like what Greg Roman did.
18:46That's me editorializing Brandon's words there. But I think that's probably going to be true.
18:51So that's part of it. But at the same time, nothing to adjust yet.
18:55Just something to monitor here with this Chargers injury situation, because this is how it goes wrong.
18:59Like we saw it with this very offense last year.
19:02It looked really good on paper. Started to fall apart the longer the season went on because of offensive line injuries.
19:08Let's get into the meat of the show, though.
19:11Let's talk about more potential disappointing teams here. These are the teams that we should maybe have some pause drafting their players
19:17in fantasy football, because by and large, by a collection of sources, as I mentioned DVOA, sports books and the Mike Clay projections.
19:23These offenses are not projected to be goods. The ones we are going to talk about today, because they are most at
19:29odds with how players are drafting fantasy football options from these teams.
19:33So again, rank the teams based on the average of their projections, one to 32, and then rank ADP value one to 32.
19:39So teams that have the highest three players going in fantasy football, they're going to have a lower ADP ranking like, you know, golf, right?
19:46Lowest score wins, right? So we're going to split the split the difference between those two numbers.
19:51Try to identify some problem teams. I found six here that are most at odds with their offensive projections based on ADP rank.
19:58That is the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints, and the New York Jets.
20:04And we're going to try to decide if you guys should actually be freaked out about those teams.
20:09And Nate, why this matters is because we talked about this last year.
20:13The teams we discussed, Raiders, that was a huge problem, right?
20:16That was a big issue with the Raiders last year.
20:19Big problem. Cardinals, it took an injury to one of their players for the clarity to kind of come through there.
20:25Minnesota Vikings was the third one. Yeah, that was a pretty big problem.
20:29And then the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons.
20:32So some consistency here with the teams that we're going to talk about.
20:36So this is why this matters. Okay. It's because you can identify some maybe overvalued fantasy players.
20:40And let's start with the team that has the biggest gap between how their offense is projected to be this year versus ADP.
20:47And that is your Arizona Cardinals, my Arizona Cardinals.
20:49Your Arizona Cardinals. Now they're my Arizona Cardinals. It's the night at the Roxbury.
20:53It's me, him, him, me, me, you. So Nate, the Cardinals are projected on average by the wisdom of the crowd, the
21:00three sources here to be the 26th best offense in the NFL.
21:03And yet Trey McBride is being taken with the 27th overall pick.
21:06Jeremiah Love on average, 27th overall pick. So they're both kind of high third rounders, sometimes the end of the second.
21:12And then Marvin Harrison Jr., 78th overall. I mean, shoot, they have a fourth player that people are interested in and Michael Wilson.
21:19So how does this work out, Nate? Should we be concerned about the Arizona Cardinals?
21:23I know that this is one of the ones where it's just like, this is heart versus head kind of thing.
21:29It's like, I think I, again, chasing the upside of what I think the Cardinals can be, but I've seen that maybe
21:35kind of sloppy Cardinals fantasy offense work. Maybe it's like the end of last year.
21:39That's maybe gone. Yeah, this could work even great.
21:42Even better. I should say. But on top of it, you just mentioned even Michael Wilson being relevant.
21:47And then Tyler Algier is one of the best handcuffs, however you want to put it in the NFL and in all fancy space, I think.
21:54So, yeah. And I don't know. I'm not as scared because even watching preseason, I just watched the Cardinals Raiders game actually this morning.
22:01And I'm pretty encouraged by kind of the bones of what the Cardinals are out there.
22:05And I know the Jeremiah Love touches thing is going to be the storyline that grabs a lot of attention, especially in the fantasy space.
22:12But just looking at general what this Cardinals offense looked like, even with these injuries that they were pointing out right here,
22:19like Chase Pesantis, they had like the whole line looked a lot more cohesive.
22:23It looked a lot more sound. It was a lot more physical.
22:26Algier and Love had juicy touches. There was great play action off of it.
22:30Jacoby Brissett maybe missed a couple pushing the ball opportunities, but also he still was pushing the ball.
22:35And again, I know I am kind of, you know, making a mountain out of the mole hole, whatever, don't say extrapolating all of this.
22:42But if you I've seen proof of concept from all these players in spurts, and I don't know, maybe if I'm just
22:48very optimistic on Michael floor, but I was I don't know.
22:51I'm I'm more bullish on this and maybe yet scaring me.
22:54I am a little lower on Trey McBride, like we talked about with on the tight end rankings, not a real football
23:01sense in a fantasy output sense, because I just think the other mouths are going to eat a little bit more.
23:06Yeah. And then on top of it, the defense, which I am actually encouraged about to Walter Nolan, by the way, it
23:13was one of your breakout players looks incredible. It's awesome.
23:15All pro all pro incredible. Just stay healthy. Just stay healthy.
23:19Yeah, that's that's all it is for him now.
23:21It's like, no, it's I see him. I see what he's going to be.
23:25But the defense, whether good or bad, it plays a style that contributes to points to the offense because it's a it's like we talked about yesterday.
23:33It's that pressing defense that very crazy leads to big plays, leads to turnovers as well, creating turnovers and big plays for themselves.
23:39So that's something, too, where the Cardinals offense can benefit from that in a fantasy sense.
23:44Yeah, look, I've made no bones about this one.
23:46I am, as I keep saying, Cardinals curious. I did the whole hour long segment on my YouTube channel with Jordan Rodrigue.
23:52I told her I was going to be like, I'm hoping for maybe a 30 minute conversation.
23:57And we talked for an hour about why we're what?
24:00Yeah, famous last words. Why were Cardinals curious? And a big part of that is you mentioned the name Michael for not.
24:06Yeah, I get it. We're all on him because of the Jeremiah Love touches thing.
24:10And I don't think I don't think that was the wise decision.
24:14However, right. Maybe just a rookie mistake. OK, for Michael for maybe just a rookie mistake, because this is the guy that
24:20not only, you know, I think he gets kind of painted as well.
24:24He's just standing. He's just stood next to Sean McVane.
24:26He's just stood next to Michael for Kyle Shanahan.
24:29And I understand that. But like we saw to me, proof of concept when he was with the Jets, a pretty good,
24:35well-designed offense that made you mentioned made the most of its players.
24:38They they had two running backs, Reese Hall and Michael Carter, and they were using a ton of pony personnel.
24:44Garrett Wilson moving all across the formation, getting weaponized as a slot Z receiver.
24:48I think just why wasn't it successful on paper?
24:51We all know why it wasn't successful on paper.
24:53They had a bad quarterback situation. And we get that.
24:56But yeah, to me, I think they've got talented players.
24:59I am definitely interested in LaFleur as a play designer.
25:02I'm glad to hear you think it's looked in the preseason because I kind of agree.
25:06They're not, you know, to me, are they going to be like somewhere in the DVOA has them 20th.
25:11Vegas, the sports book, have them at 32nd. Like, I will take closer to the 20th best offense than the second.
25:17There's just too much talent here, Nate, for them to be the worst offense in the league.
25:22And the only it's not awful. So it's not even with the injury, it's not an offensive line that I look at
25:28and go, well, they can't block like three of the starters.
25:31Like Paris Johnson Jr. is a very high quality player.
25:34He just had a down season like everybody did.
25:37Sumalo was a good signing at guard. Like he's when he it's a lot of if they're healthy, but yes, that maybe is a part of it.
25:44But they have, I think, three solid starters. And if they have to play Isaiah Adams, at least he has experience as well.
25:51And it's a guy they've drafted before and has a little bit of pedigree.
25:55So but it's not again, it's not like one of these offensive line situations where like the Patriots two years ago, where
26:01it's just like, well, yeah, I point I can't point as single plus starter here.
26:05At the very least, they have three, I would say.
26:08Ultimately, if you don't want to pay the iron price for Trey McBride, I kind of get it.
26:13You know, 27 overall, especially relative to Colson Loveland going after him.
26:16Tyler Warren, Tucker Craft, you know, even Kyle Pitts, Sam Laporta.
26:19I understand that part of it. The double edged sword with Jeremiah Love is that, yeah, he got hurt because he was
26:26handling too many touches, but he was basically treated as the bell cow.
26:29Right. So when he's healthy, I do get like him being 27th overall.
26:33Totally understand that. This is not going to be that bad, which I don't.
26:37It just pushes me to the wide receivers, which Marvin Harrison, as I mentioned, 78th, 79th overall, Michael Wilson, 105th overall.
26:43Those are the guys I'm going to be ahead of ADP on just because I think the offense is going to be better than that.
26:50So to me, Nate, they are not one of the teams that I'm just crossing off the list this year because of
26:56where their offense is projected to be. But are some of the other teams going to be those?
27:01We will discuss those teams right after this. All right, we're back.
27:04It is time to discuss another team who is got a pretty big gap between where they're projected to be and where
27:11their players are being drafted in fantasy. And it is a repeat offender here.
27:15This team was discussed last year as well. The Atlanta Falcons, 18 spots between where they're projected to be the 23rd best offense in the NFL.
27:22And unlike the Cardinals, where there was one 20th and then a 32nd in terms of the projections, this one's just kind
27:28of 26th, 25th, 23rd across the board here on this one.
27:31So, again, we'll see. But we are drafting their players quite high.
27:35B. John Robinson, second overall pick. Drake London, a top 20 pick.
27:38And even Kyle Pitts, 72nd overall pick. So, Nate Tice, how worried are you that the Falcons are not projected to be a good offense?
27:45I don't think you're going to come on here and tell me, well, in the preseason, Matt, actually, just like the Cardinals,
27:51I think I saw some pretty good things. I don't think you're going to say that.
27:56But how nervous are you about that combined with the fact that, yeah, we are drafting not just two, but three players in fantasy?
28:02And that's I mean, but as a franchise, that's this is their whole stick right now is Josh and I talked about last week.
28:09And I said, this is the I mean, he it was great.
28:13Like, I thought I was going to have to like, you know, hey, I think this team might be silently tanking.
28:18And he just that was his opening take on them.
28:21I was like, oh, sweet. You're on the same wavelength here.
28:24But I called it the jingling keys offense. Like, hey, don't worry about the defense.
28:29The both of our first round picks last year aren't playing.
28:32Don't worry about we only have no real quarterback playing in week one.
28:35The guy that's going to start as a bad back and look toward it.
28:39Like, check out Drake London. Check out Kyle. Check out Sean.
28:42I'm sorry to interrupt you. But do you remember when Raheem Morris got the job?
28:47And it was in one of his. It might have been his opening presser.
28:51Maybe one of the first that they asked him.
28:53So what really drew you to this job? And he goes, uh, B.
28:57John Robinson and Drake London. That was what? Three years ago now.
29:00Because he didn't last. I was like three years ago now.
29:03And what's good about this job? B. John Robinson, Drake.
29:06I guess Kyle Pitts is back. But nothing's really changed.
29:09Nothing. Nothing. I mean, a couple of good guards.
29:11I'll give him that. Matt Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom.
29:14I'll give him that. Jake Matthews is getting older.
29:16Ryan Neusel, the center is pretty good. But then I usually would have Bill Callahan as the line coach as a plus.
29:23But he's actually been kind of a neutral at best coach in the last couple of years.
29:27And Jawan Taylor is an, I would say, average at best starter with a lot of penalties as well.
29:33But I am a little scared because I do think this offense is an offense that's very traditional under Kevin Stefanski.
29:39They have a staff that's very kind of traditional as well.
29:42Where I thought Zach Robinson actually got a little creative with some.
29:45And maybe this was the whole line coach as well.
29:48But was very creative with some of the run plays and stuff off of that.
29:52And we've talked about this. Second half, Zach Robinson last year was a little bit.
29:56You know, it was kind of like once we stopped paying attention, it was a lot better to watch.
30:02It looked better as well. But it's kind of hard.
30:05Like, Bajon is one of those where you kind of trust the talent.
30:08It's Drake London I'm a little bit more worried about than anything.
30:12This defense, though, is also. It's pretty holy. And like, not in a biblical sense.
30:16And it's very like. And like, I don't think they're able to stop the run.
30:20It just sounded weird when I said that. But no, it was just like.
30:24And I don't know if they're going to be able to stop the run.
30:28So they're going to be very funky on third down, which is something I like from their defensive coordinator.
30:33So this is just a team that I think is going to be pretty bad.
30:37They're not in a great division. I understand that.
30:40But also, it's just like the game script's not going to be great for a lot of these games.
30:45The quarterback situation might be volatile. You're either getting Tua with a bad back.
30:49Penix, who hasn't taken any team snaps yet, I don't think.
30:52Or my guy Jack Strand from Minnesota Moorhead. So it's Division 2.
30:56So it's. Yeah, that's kind of where I'm painting at.
30:59It's just that this is a team that I don't think expects to win.
31:03I think it's going to have some weird game scripts this year, which is going to be led to a lot of disappointing performances.
31:09But some typical genre performances as well. So but notice I don't really, you know, Drake London, I'm kind of a little
31:15bit worried about because it's just it's hard to buy into that passing game right now.
31:20Yeah, yeah. I mean, 20th overall, I have him ranked 20th overall, but I have bumped him down a little bit just
31:26because of how I feel about this offense. You know, and there are guys in the same range.
31:31I wouldn't hate it if like you just I know that Drake London is the number one receiver.
31:36But if you look at George Pickens, who's the next guy in my rankings and you say, I would just rather be
31:42attached to the Cowboys offense than the Falcons offense.
31:45This is hard for me to say, because it's usually I'm like talking people to go.
31:50No, buy into Drake London. Yeah, now we are London guys.
31:53Yeah. Yeah. But now I'm like kind of throttle back a little bit this year.
31:57I know it's it's a weird conversation with him this year.
32:00Fantasy wise. I mean, even Chris Olave, like I have 22nd.
32:03I have Drake London 20th. We're going to talk about the Saints, but like what's the difference between Chris Olave and Drake London right now?
32:10I think they're pretty similar caliber of receivers. Yeah, the clear number one target other offense, especially with Jordan Tyson banged up.
32:16So, yeah, there are guys. I mean, this is why you do tears in fantasy.
32:20You know, you want to just go to a different player in this position.
32:24That's totally fine with me. I still feel OK about London again.
32:28Like I said, I'm in line with ADP. Bijan, I will say I have him as my third overall player.
32:33I have Jamar Chase as my second overall player just on the risk factor that the Falcons offense totally tanks.
32:39Pitts has been the one that's the most difficult click.
32:42And again, I don't think he's egregiously ranked ADP wise, but he's 72nd.
32:46I'm a little bit behind ADP on that one just because, again, we're hoping three players hit from the Tua Tungvaluwa offense.
32:52I'm going to go ahead and sell three players hitting from the Tua Tungvaluwa offense consistently because we saw this in Miami, man.
32:58And that's, by the way, if I'm ranking offensive minds in the NFL right now, I'm ranking Mike McDaniel ahead of Kevin
33:04Stefanski, even though I think Stefanski is generally fine, not like super offensive or anything.
33:09But they kind of struggled to get three players activated consistently, Nate, even before Tua really, really started to decline as a player.
33:15I mean, it would be like Tyreek Hill and then Devon Achan and or John Rue Smith and then Jalen Waddles kind of left out in the cold.
33:23Yep. And it's just also a compounding thing, too.
33:25It's where Stefanski likes to feature tight ends. There's a lot of screens with it as well.
33:30But again, I just picture two is just going to be some frustrating touches.
33:34OK, they're in the red zone. And how do you win with Bajon?
33:38And I'm sorry, not Bajon, but Kyle Pitts and Drake London as your receivers in the red zone.
33:43Give them, you know, fade balls and give them jump balls.
33:46Tua is not really a jump ball thrower because guys can make plays on it.
33:50Like it's an irony. People think the softer the arm is.
33:53That's actually better for those. It's actually you want the guys that can get it up and down.
33:58You know, the guys that can kind of pace it just a little bit.
34:02Burrow's arms enough to has a lesser arm than even Burrow.
34:05So, again, it's just it's hard for me to buy into this.
34:09I'm I look at this fancy wise that if any fall to me, great.
34:13Or I get a guy at price in an auction.
34:16Really great. But it's not one I'm going to overpay for anybody.
34:19And this is a guy that, you know, over has loved overpaying for Bajon.
34:23But now it's just been one of these were, you know, an auction.
34:27And he said, so it's like one of my favorite things to do every year.
34:31But this is the one year I'm like, OK, my eyes are starting to venture elsewhere just because I do think there's
34:37going to be some disappointing weeks this year. My last point to leave us on, you know, with a note of dread for this team.
34:44And can we all just take a moment and congratulate me for not saying Jahan Dotson during this segment?
34:49Let's just take a moment for that. I haven't said Zacchaeus.
34:52OK, yeah, we left our little pet our little pet projects here for the moment.
34:57You know, Zachary Branch, people have excitement about him.
34:59I mean, if he starts taking away a little designer, he touches that's going to really stink for Drake London and Kyle Pitts, especially because of this.
35:07My one little concern about Drake London that I really can't get out of my head, but I have no concrete proof on yet.
35:14Nate is just that, you know, the reason that Kyle Pitts and Drake London have struggled to pop off consistently together.
35:19And obviously, Pitts went crazy last year when London was out of the lineup, you know, banged up the whole deal.
35:25He wasn't doing much when London was there is because they kind of went in the same areas of the field because
35:32Kyle Pitts is, you know, kind of move tight end the whole deal.
35:35He could do some inline stuff a little bit more, but, you know, kind of a move tight end.
35:41And Drake London is that power slot. Like, that's how they've used him.
35:44Now, he's definitely been more. He's more of a Z receiver than like a true, true slot.
35:49But again, they kind of went in the same areas of the field.
35:53What if in this offense, like we're talking about the second receiver being Jahan Dotson.
35:57We're talking about the second receiver being Zachary Branch.
35:59Which Elamid is the key. What if we see Drake London like back just kind of stuck as the X and Kyle
36:06Pitts gets all those like gimme targets? That is another thing that, you know, I was really hoping to talk about sick
36:12preseason stuff to, you know, look at where how often is Drake London lined up on the ball in the preseason.
36:18We saw him two snaps and then he was gone.
36:21So that is something I'm at least looking for any information on.
36:24Haven't seen anything out of Atlanta, you know, beat reporter wise.
36:27Like is Drake London lining up at X more often?
36:30So that's just something to file away for this team.
36:33Because even if you could argue, hey, Stefanski gets creative and goes like 12 personnel because Charlie Warren is a pretty good blocker.
36:39And it's like, OK, then they line up Kyle Pitts.
36:42Well, then that takes away the juicy Drake London snaps because they're trying to you do that to get stuff out of Kyle Pitts.
36:49You know what I mean? You get into those personnels and those formations.
36:52And I do think that's the one guy that could benefit just because of what Stefanski has highlighted in the past.
36:58He uses his maybe this is the best way I can put it.
37:02Maybe this is why I can't only get so high with London.
37:05I'm OK with Pitts. I may be the best way is that I've seen Stefanski get creative with his tight ends.
37:11I've never seen him get creative with his receivers.
37:14Is that because he hasn't had the guys to get creative with?
37:17He's had who? What? Amari Cooper after, you know, in a certain way.
37:21Jerry Judy, OBJ. You know, he hasn't really had T Higgins even at the least or Jamar Chase out there.
37:26Anyway, CD Lamp to really highlight. But that's something I've seen more creativity for tight ends with screens, with kind of just the designer plays switch.
37:34The invert roles that you and I like to talk about.
37:37Like, those are all the highlight, the tight ends, as opposed to the power slot.
37:41But again, is that just the personality set? So again, but again, you hear me.
37:45It's like, yeah, there's siren songs. That's siren songs.
37:48There's alarm bells going off. I'm just like, I don't know.
37:51I don't know. I don't know. Just something I've seen in the past with them.
37:55All right. Third team here. This is another repeat offender.
37:58And this was, again, this was. Yeah, to be honest.
38:01The Raiders are the one that really kind of inspired me to do this exercise last year because we're basically taking two Raiders players.
38:07And we kind of all. Certainly, I was really down on that Raiders team last year.
38:12You know, this was something I was on my radar right away.
38:15That I think this Raiders team is going to be good.
38:18And then it was honestly worth doing. This exercise was when when I turned on them was doing this show last year
38:25is when it changed in my brain. I was like, man, I don't think they they just don't have anything to do this.
38:31Like they don't have. No, I always say they don't have the horses.
38:35And that's like that was that realization. I was like, when you talk it out, you're like, yeah, they didn't have the horses.
38:41They don't have the horses to be interesting. I don't think they're going to be average.
38:46And I was like, they were way worse than average last year.
38:49And nobody last year projected their offense to be good in any of these sources that we were looking at.
38:55And guess what, Nate? Nobody thinks their offense is going to be good this year.
38:59They're 28th, 28th, 30th. So they're 30th in the aggregate wisdom of the crowd rankings here.
39:03And yet we're doing it again. We're taking two Raiders players in the first two rounds in fantasy football.
39:09Ashton Gentey, 15th overall ADP. Brock Bowers, 22nd overall ADP.
39:12And then the third player drafted from this team is Mike Washington Jr., the backup running back at 127th overall.
39:17So this is more of a Gentey. Bowers are, again, pushing them up the ADP rankings because, I mean, their receivers are
39:23barely being drafted outside of best ball formats. Jalen Naylor, your boy Trey Tucker, my boy Jack Bash, Malik Benson's got some dynasty pops.
39:30So nobody's really expecting that. But, okay, so that's the table set.
39:34Nobody thinks the Raiders offense is going to be good.
39:36They were a problem in this exercise last year.
39:39Are we worried about Gentey and Bowers again this year?
39:42I feel a lot more excited about Gentey than maybe I should be.
39:45And that's already my own narrative building from the offseason or narrative scouting, I should say, of just the pieces coming together.
39:52But also the preseason was very encouraging. And, again, I know it's preseason, but there are starters on both sides against the Cardinals.
39:58The Raiders were doing enough that I've seen. You know, Clint Kubiak has enough proof concept that it's kind of nice to
40:04kind of know what's real and what's not with him.
40:07You know, some guys, I'm like, okay, are they just throwing everything they got out there?
40:12Are they being simplistic? With, you know, with Clint Kubiak, I know what I got here.
40:16Saw some more duo runs. I saw some more gap scheme than just zone, zone, zone, which was a nice, pleasant surprise.
40:22Surprise. The O-line looks, it's night and day. And, again, I am not saying this offensive line is going to be, oh, wow, surprise top 10.
40:30But it's not going to be bad. It was actually, it was a very pleasant surprise to see just how, like, just
40:36how, you know, in unison they worked. After what, especially last year, all these different types of runs that they did.
40:42I thought Gentey had some nice runs with his tempo and everything.
40:45So, I'm buying into the run game and also thought their defense looked a little bit, looked okay enough.
40:50Not like totally great, but looked okay enough that I think the game scripts won't be totally out of hand.
40:56You know, where Gentey's are, all right, he only got 10 carries because they just had to throw the ball the entire second half.
41:03Like, sorry, I think he can stay balanced. Washington's going to get touches.
41:06That, you know, it's, he's not, not going to get touches.
41:09They took him high enough that it's like, okay, to spell him a little bit.
41:14But saying all that, Gentey's going to be on the field.
41:17He's going to get good screens. I'm actually, I'm very much, like, wherever his ADP is, I'm comfortable at it.
41:22I'm actually a little bit higher than that, personally.
41:25Him and Hampton, the kind of second year, first round running backs.
41:28But I really do think that the early returns are promising about, like, just how much more sound this whole offense is going to be.
41:35I also say, Mendoza, like, I've been saying that he probably won't start until after his bye.
41:40He looked good enough that it's like, I, I, it's, if he does end up starting earlier, it's, it's for a good reason.
41:47You know, it's not like, oh, they have to start him because it's like, no, that's a promising thing because he did
41:53look solid as that first preseason game. Yeah. Interestingly, last year, looking back at it, the Raiders were projected to be the 25th best offense this year.
42:00They're, as I mentioned, 30th. Last year, I was willing to take the under on 25th.
42:05This year, I'm willing to take the slight over on 30th.
42:08I'm not saying they're going to be even 20th, but, you know, could they be 26th?
42:13Right. Is that enough to maybe just get two players there?
42:16I think it's possible just because the reason I was willing to be so pessimistic last year about the Raiders was the coaching staff.
42:22You know, I just did not buy that the Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly marriage was going to work together.
42:28You know, obviously the son being the, the offensive line coach, the whole deal, you know, no need to relitigate that.
42:34But I'm very high on what Clint Kubiak and this group can be.
42:37I just think it will be cohesive. We all know what the current is that we're swimming in now, where we did not know that last year.
42:45I think that will really matter for the offensive line.
42:48I think it will really matter for just all these skill position players.
42:51Plus, again, just having hope in Fernando Mendoza really does matter.
42:54I think it will be way before the bye.
42:57I think they'll find somewhere to, you know, sneak him in there as the starter.
43:01I just, he looks like he's ready to rock.
43:04So I feel pretty good about that. You know, Gentie, I have him ranked a little bit ahead of ADP too.
43:10But, you know, if you just want to look at the other running backs that are going right behind him, you know,
43:16Kenneth Walker, probably feel better about the Chiefs offense than the Raiders offense.
43:20Even if you got some questions, I get it.
43:22If you want to break ties in favor there.
43:25Yeah. Miami Dolphins, Devon Achan, he's up next. I mean, there's some questions there.
43:29Like Chase Brown, Bengals. Yeah, I know. Well, that's like a really interesting tier.
43:32That's like a lot of actually guys. Derrick Henry, Amari, and Hampton.
43:36Those are the guys that are going like right after him.
43:39I know. And that's, but still, I like Hampton that tier two.
43:42And actually, I'm still high on Henry. Just even, he's the outlier.
43:46I get it. You know, another thing I just wanted to look at, Clint Kubiak, when he called plays with the Vikings, he had Dalvin Cook.
43:53It was actually not a terrible comparison for Gentie.
43:56Cook that year averaged about 22 touches a game, 106 scrimmage yards a game, about a half a touchdown a game.
44:01He only played 13 games. That's why I'm using per game stats.
44:05But again, I think that's an easy floor for Gentie this year.
44:08Where it's, yeah, about 100 scrimmage yards a game because he's going to get those screens and everything.
44:13But yeah, I know that whole tier that you mentioned, those are, oh, guys, I'm actually pretty bullish on.
44:19Like Chase Brown, because I think the Bengals line gets knocked and they're going to run the ball just because they're trying to prove some people wrong.
44:26And I think all that talk is going to benefit him.
44:29And they keep hyping up Chase Brown as well.
44:32I'm high on Marion Hampton for all the love I've given the Chargers.
44:35Just listen to any podcast I've been on for about three months now.
44:39So it's like, yeah, that whole tier that you just mentioned is like, guys, I'm super, super interested in.
44:44But no, I'm very bullish on Gentie this year and with that, how that first year of this regime is going to
44:51feel, especially by the end of the year. And I think Bauer is at 22nd overall.
44:55He's my tight end one. I just don't really end up taking a lot of Bauer's just because structurally it's not how
45:01I've wanted to build my teams this year. But, I mean, yeah, he should get 130 targets if he's healthy.
45:07He should absolutely eat in this system. I think he's going to get a ton, a ton of first read looks.
45:13So I think, Nate, just because there's so much ambiguity in the receiver room, which, by the way, there wasn't last year
45:19because they entered the season with Jacoby Myers. Mike Washington is their third drafted player.
45:23He's going 127th overall among third drafted players. He's got the sixth lowest ADP of any team.
45:28So it really is just about these top two guys.
45:31Unlike last year where you were kind of projecting like maybe can a third player eat.
45:35There was some Dante Thornton camp hype. There was Jack Besh hope.
45:39I think the receivers, Jalen Naylor, Trey Tucker, and Jack Besh, I think they're going to be used correctly.
45:44Especially Besh, I think, is going to be used correctly this year.
45:48But they'll still be like auxiliary supporting players. Yes, they are complimentary.
45:51No, the offense is going to – the passing game is going to go through Bowers.
45:55Like that's – again, I'll bring up that 2015 Washington comparison.
45:58Like Jordan Reed, 114 targets, 87 receptions, 952 yards, 11 touchdowns.
46:02Like I think that's the upper middle projection that I have for Bowers.
46:05Where he's going to be – they're going to funnel the attack through him.
46:09And then you got your Deshaun Jackson role, which is Trey Tucker.
46:13You know, you got your Pierre Garçon, which is whoever you want.
46:16Let's call him Jalen Naylor. But Jack Besh though – and I sent this into our outline.
46:21Did you see that there's a lot of power slot snaps?
46:24A lot of power slot snaps from Jack Besh.
46:26And that makes sense. How they used Cooper Cup last year.
46:29Cooper Cup was essentially a second tight end. Like I know that in the Rams it was more receiver-y.
46:35But really with Seahawks last year it was very tight end-ish.
46:38I don't know. It's making sense to me. Maybe I'm just, again, extrapolating a little too much from that first preseason.
46:44But it just felt better. It just like just went down better when I was viewing it.
46:49So, yeah. I don't know. The roles are making sense to me more in a real football sense.
46:54But I still – yeah. Gentian Bowers are going to eat.
46:57I really do think so. I mean, man. Look, I know they signed Jalen Naylor.
47:01And I mean, he's kind of a guy that can get a little bit vertical too.
47:05Just give me Trey Tucker as the speed guy.
47:08Take the top off. Rashid Shahid. Rashid Shahid. Like Malik Benson's his backup.
47:12I know people still want a lot from Michael Mayer.
47:14We'll see. He had an impressive touchdown catch in preseason.
47:17He's got to be on the football field. Got to be available.
47:21But 12 personnel. And then Jack Besh is kind of that detached off-ball Z receiver next to one of these tight ends.
47:27And just run the hell out of the ball, bro.
47:30Like, just give me that all year. And I think we can – I think if that's what we get, that will be enough.
47:36I'm actually not as worried about these two guys this year as much as I was worried about them last year.
47:42Like you said, I think a 20s finish is more likely than that 30th finish.
47:47Like, what did you say, 26 or something like that?
47:49I think that's that 23, 24, 25, 26 range.
47:52That's kind of how I envision this offense this year.
47:55It just feels better, like I said. And also, got to throw out Michael Mayer.
47:59I think Michael Mayer is going to have a nice role in this offense too.
48:03So, again, I know his name always kind of gets brought up.
48:07But, like, this is like the perfect type of offense for Michael Mayer.
48:10And, like, his blocking ability and enough receiving ability.
48:13So, he's also kind of like a sneaky, sneaky, sneaky, sneaky, deep, deep, deep guy, you know, for this year.
48:18All right. We're going to take a quick break.
48:21When we come back, we've got to talk about another team with a quarterback.
48:25Question? Maybe? Under center? We'll get into that right after this.
48:28All right. We're back. Next team to discuss here.
48:30This team has a 10-point gap between where they're ranked in the wisdom of the crowd, which is 19th.
48:36And yet, they are the ninth team in ADP average.
48:39That is the Indianapolis Colts. Once again, mostly weighed by their top pick, which is Jonathan Taylor, 7th overall.
48:44Tyler Warren, 46th overall ADP. And Alec Pierce, 97th overall ADP.
48:4794th, depending on when. I had it at 94th when I looked at this.
48:51Maybe it's down now to 97th because there's been zero good news on the Alec Pierce injury front.
48:56Absolutely. Signed Keenan Allen. We talked about this team yesterday.
48:59Nate, how worried should we be about the Indianapolis Colts offense this year?
49:03Pretty worried. I think when your quarterback is not 100% healthy after the Achilles injury six months ago, that's pretty worrisome.
49:08And if your entire timeline and narrative is about that.
49:11But even if Daniel Jones, who is practicing, has been practicing in full.
49:15So he is going to be playing by all accounts, even though he said on Pat McAfee this week that there's still
49:21some work to be done to feel all right for week one, which, you know, it perks my ears up.
49:27Not everything on that show perks my ears up, but that did.
49:30And I will say that that might limit him operating under center.
49:33No, I have not checked out the album. I'm sorry.
49:36I'm sorry. It's real time. Out of tune country is my.
49:39Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's right after the Beatles. After I listened to the white album, you know, it's next up.
49:45I think it's on my queue. I think the algorithm groups those two together.
49:49But no, I will say that watching this offense too.
49:52And what we talked about yesterday. So I kind of feel like I'm pulling the string again is that if you can't
49:58operate under center, that's kind of an appeal of this offense is that they do a little bit of everything really well.
50:04And they can kind of change how they attack a defense every week, which kind of highlights Shane Steichen's kind of play calling and play designing.
50:11But also they don't have that kind of thing that they can lean on.
50:15And to me, it was guy. All right. We don't really know what we want to do this week.
50:21Let's get under center and let Jonathan Taylor eat because he's really good running the ball under center.
50:26Daniel Jones pushing off that leg is a little scary to me.
50:29He could probably push off going to his right.
50:32But if you have Quentin Nelson and Bernard Raymond, you'd like him pushing off to his left to run to the left because that means his right foot.
50:40So, again, these are the little things that I'm trying to get.
50:43I might be making a mountain of a molehill, but it's just scary to me because I just like it's a very short injury.
50:50Daniel Jones has been banged up. And so I'm kind of just pessimistic about kind of the timeline that they've been giving.
50:56And I think that will hinder some of Jonathan Taylor's effectiveness.
50:59Having said that, maybe Anthony Richardson because they seem to like him again.
51:03That might be interesting, you know, kind of have all the read game in there.
51:07But I'm pretty down on Alec Pierce this year just because of the injury stuff.
51:11I still, you know, I have plenty of him in Dynasty.
51:14The one guy I'm interested in and all this conversation I know is Tyler Warren, actually.
51:19I do think he is going to be very productive.
51:22And I think because they've shown formationally, they use them.
51:24They want to highlight him. And I think no matter what every, you know, Downs has question marks, his usage.
51:30Alec Pierce, when he's coming back, Jonathan Taylor, is he going to be as effective under center?
51:35I know what Tyler Warren, I know what I'm going to get.
51:38No matter who the quarterback is, no matter who else is playing and starting, I know what I'm getting with Tyler Warren.
51:44So he is the one guy I'm still, like, drafting at price and maybe a little richer as opposed to the other
51:51guys I'm a little bit more down and pessimistic on.
51:53Yeah. Listen, obviously, I'm still in the bag for Josh Downs.
51:56Talked about this yesterday with Ray Garvin. You know, he's going late enough that he's still worth the dart throw, even if
52:03I did have to dock him a few spots, obviously, in the rankings.
52:06And I think it takes some of the ceiling case out.
52:09Tyler Warren, I am in line with ADP on him.
52:12I mean, tight ends just go really early on Yahoo this year.
52:16I don't really know what's up with that. But, yeah, I mean, I'm in line with ADP on Tyler Warren.
52:21I think he's a good pick in the 40s.
52:24I agree with you that he's the most secure one of this.
52:27Alec Pierce is complete red line player. I can't do it.
52:30It's just too risky right now, and there's too many other good receivers in his tier.
52:35So there is that. Jonathan Taylor, look, I'm really excited about Taylor's first-round pick this year.
52:39The thing that worries me is a lot of what you were just talking about there about the Daniel Jones injury and the under center stuff.
52:47Because this is what we talked about yesterday on Football 301.
52:50If you guys want a more expansive conversation about this, go check out that show.
52:54It's maybe hour three. Maybe we talked about the Jonathan Taylor under center stuff.
52:58But you mentioned this. Yeah, it was the end of the second act of our epic.
53:02Yeah. Somewhere in the Odyssey it was discussed. Anyways, so Jonathan Taylor, you mentioned this, that you're worried about Daniel Jones maybe
53:08not being able to get under center as much.
53:11And, you know, we'll see. Maybe this is nothing.
53:14As you said, it could be nothing. Exactly. But that's the whole point of this show is to throw these possibilities out there.
53:20You know, this show, this fantasy show has never been about, like, spoon feeding you guys.
53:24Like, this is the players you should drive. We're going to give you the information.
53:29Then you guys decide if you're worried about it, what you want to do with it.
53:33Right? Personal accountability podcast. I'm personally accountable for everything I do.
53:36Nate is. You guys are as well. Okay. We've said that.
53:39So, my point in that is that if this ends up not working out for Jonathan Taylor this year, can't say, like, there was no warning signs.
53:47Right? Because Nate is raising some alarm bells about the under center stuff.
53:51And then I said this yesterday. Okay? Not exactly, like, seventh overall pick ADP worthy.
53:55You know, yeah. The first 10 games, 100%. He was tearing everything apart.
53:59He looked like the right answer. He had, like, 100 yards every single game.
54:02You know? But once they got into the shotgun world, Nate, we saw the effectiveness drop.
54:07So, that's just the thing you have to be concerned about with the Daniel Jones injury.
54:11Even though everybody at practice is telling you, like, oh, man, he looks like he's never been hurt in his life.
54:17It's. Oh, I know. And if you couldn't really see it on that Warren clip we just showed, too, in the YouTube show, is that.
54:24Like, and that's the thing is I'm watching these clips.
54:27Now, it's not something I was trying to find.
54:30It's just me happenstance on the timeline of social media.
54:33And I see just, like, his right leg just really dragging.
54:36And just really kind of flailing out there. And that just kind of scared me.
54:40Some of the outside throws. Not so much stuff working over the middle.
54:44But then this was the stat I had on Jonathan Taylor yesterday on the show.
54:48Now, hopefully, I deliver better here. But if you looked at players with similar usage to Jonathan Taylor since 2020 when he entered the league.
54:55Under center, he's fifth in success rate. So, you know, obviously very, very good.
54:59But then out of those 38 running backs, if you look at him in shotgun, he's 20th in success rate.
55:04He turns into basically A.J. Dillon when he's in the shotgun.
55:07So, it's like, yeah, he's okay. He's solid. He's pretty good.
55:11But he's not Jonathan Taylor. And Taylor I've been aware of since very early on.
55:15He's a Wisconsin Badger. And even then, they try to do more under center and pistol where they try to merge stuff.
55:21Because he was so much better just operating downhill.
55:24So, still an effective player. But league winner type.
55:26Carry my team every single week type. You want that option available.
55:29And again, we might find out week one. It is.
55:32They can go under center. Everything's fine. It's just stuff that, you know, again, tiebreakers.
55:36And, like, there's stuff weighing against him just a little bit.
55:4015th in DVOA. 17th in the sports books. 19th by Mike Clay's projections.
55:43I think, you know, if they're on the higher end there, if they're closer to 15th, I do think we can be
55:49okay with Jonathan Taylor as a running back one.
55:52Tyler Warren is a tight end one. You know, Josh Downs is a really good sleeper.
55:56But that's probably, you know, I think we're worried about the Pierce stuff.
56:00And by the way, like, Pierce being unavailable or less than 100% matters a lot when we're kind of talking about not
56:06from exactly how they win and where they line up and everything.
56:10But it's a little bit hat on a hat with, like, where Tyler Warren runs his routes, where Josh Downs runs his routes.
56:16And obviously where Keenan Allen at this point runs his routes.
56:19So that will definitely be a concern if Alec Pierce.
56:22And by the way, you know, a shout out to Zane Danani, who we've had on the show.
56:27He had a great article at his previous place of employment at Fantasy Points where he noted that having a higher average
56:33depth of route is actually not good for fantasy.
56:36Like, you don't want to be the pure deep guys because your production is going to be super inconsistent up and down.
56:42And Pierce is definitely one of those guys that, I mean, even at the end of last year, he had some really big games with Phillip Rivers.
56:50Also had some true zero spots last year as well.
56:52And we're talking about at that point a bit more of a consistent passing game, you know, with Michael Pittman as opposed to Keenan Allen.
56:59There are just ways where if Alec Pierce isn't there and he's not fully operational, this offense can start to feel pretty tight.
57:06And last year, I kind of was even saying with Jones where this offense, like, I was low on it last year.
57:12They were great. They were so impressive the first half of last year.
57:16It was they're averaging more than 30 points a game, which is a historical number.
57:20But so much and I compared it to BABIP in baseball where it was just like everything was kind of breaking right
57:26for Jones in the passing game where it was like, OK, the guy's wide open.
57:30This tip ball gets completed. This throw this this guy falls down in coverage and that guy ends up being wide open.
57:37Like everything was kind of breaking right perfectly. I didn't think it would fall off a total cliff, but I was like,
57:43I don't think it's going to stay at 30 plus points a game.
57:46But that's another thing, too. That's football. We have a small sample size and we're going off half a season of very,
57:53very good and about a third of a season of pretty bad, actually.
57:56And it's what how much you want to weigh which side to me.
58:00It points more to the negative side and kind of more upswing as the season goes along.
58:05It's kind of like an inverse of last year.
58:07I just don't think the highs are there because you have Pierce playing out of his mind and I'm a guy that's high on Pierce.
58:14But then now the other pieces just don't fit exactly right.
58:17And that's what just kind of it just does.
58:20That's what just kind of worrying me where I'm really we talked about on the show yesterday.
58:25I'm really trying to find the formations that can work and that they can work in positive game scripts when you're running hot.
58:31What about a tougher division? You know, a tougher schedule, maybe or a tougher just like when you just aren't running as hot.
58:38Does it all feel as good? And that's what's just worrying me because it just doesn't feel as complete as it did
58:44last year or at least what it ended up looking like last year.
58:48All right, we are going to take another quick break.
58:50We come back. We've got two more teams to discuss.
58:53They have some red flags. We'll get into that right after this.
58:57All right, we're back. Our next team here that we've got to talk through fifth on the board is the New Orleans
59:03Saints, which have a nine spot gap. They rank 27th in the wisdom of the crowd rankings, average offensive projections, 18th in ADP rankings.
59:09So not crazy. They're the lowest one we've talked about so far.
59:13And Nate, my first instinct is be like Saints, 27th best offense in the NFL.
59:17Come on. I mean, listen, DVOA is dragging them down.
59:20All right. Aaron shots, buddy. What are we doing?
59:2230th projection for the Saints. Come on. Come on.
59:25I know this is like the most Saints friendly podcast in the entire fantasy football space.
59:29Anchor in the Saints, man. But come on. But at the same time, Nate, this is what this show is for is
59:36to maybe a little bit of a cold shower on some optimism and telling yourself a cute little story in the offseason.
59:42This is why the projections from multiple sources matter.
59:44And yeah, looks like the Saints are not expected to be that good of an offense.
59:49And yet we're drafting Chris Olave, 35th overall. Travis Achan, 45th overall.
59:52Jordan Tyson has a 94th overall ADP. That's going to obviously continue to drop as he's going to miss.
59:58He's going to miss time into the regular season.
60:00I mean, he might not play until October. We'll see about that.
60:04So we're not spending a premium on these Saints players.
60:06And yet I'll say one person who is spending a premium on these Saints players is me because I am very much
60:13ahead of the ADP on Chris Olave, especially. I mean, I am 22nd overall.
60:16Like I said earlier, what's the difference between Drake London and Chris Olave?
60:20Right? Like what's the George Pickens is the second target on the team.
60:24I get it. It's the Cowboys. But, you know, I mean, what's the difference between Chris Olave and Devante Smith?
60:29Other than like we just saw last year, Chris Olave be a number one receiver.
60:34And he goes earlier. So to me, I'm really in on Chris Olave.
60:37But should this projection have us put some pause on any Saints optimism, which I know we both have?
60:43Yeah, I have optimism. You know, doing the NFC South show with Josh kind of like I ended up picking the Bucs to win the division.
60:50I ended up just kind of buying into their O-line because it was just you realize the Saints are fragile and not
60:56and actually in a injury sense, but also just roster sense.
60:59One guy goes down. It's like, OK, this is starting to teeter just a little.
61:03And that's that makes sense in their timeline there.
61:06It's we should look at this team as a rebuilding team and we're in year two of a rebuild.
61:11But I do like the O-line and I'm positive about that.
61:14So, again, that I think I I'm optimistic about it.
61:17But again, Eric McCoy rarely plays a full season like there have guys with injury concerns on that O-line tight end wise.
61:23I did like the Oscar Dell picks that helps some of the blocking stuff there.
61:28So why I bring that all up is those are the usual things that can kind of kneecap the offense, kneecap the
61:34optimism lead to just inconsistent offensive flow. So I'm with you.
61:37I'm pretty high on a lava. So I'm bringing up all that to say that there's nothing that I'm really where there's
61:43that trap door other than a lava his own health, which is part of the whole same discussion anyways.
61:48But Chuck, I'm I'm not as super high as the high people are on him.
61:53But I do see a competent quarterback there and a guy that the very least for this year, the discussion, what he
61:59is, what he is long term is more the discussion about shock.
62:02But running an LFL offense and making productive, I can bet on that at least for 2026.
62:07Again, I think some of the pessimism with the Saints is the second half of last year.
62:12They did face a pretty easy schedule. So maybe you aren't buying more into that.
62:16Yep. And but I like Kellen Moore. They do some of the good offensive stuff that I want to see offenses do.
62:22I love a lava. I think he's a great player.
62:25The whole line. I love the average signing. I think that's enough at its most at its best.
62:30It's a good unit. The ETN signing. I it's Camara's hurt right now.
62:34So, too, it's like ETN ZTN. He's going to be explosive.
62:37He's going to have some screens that go a long ways.
62:40He's horrid and protection. And that's why Devin Neal being healthy is going to be very important for them.
62:45But no, I just think if you're betting on a lobby, I think you should stay high on it because I just
62:52don't see that trap door other than health. Yeah, you really did forget until I went back to chart Chris Olave season last year.
62:58It's like I forgot they were really punching up on some cupcakes at the end of last season.
63:03I mean, a lot of that production. He had 10 catches, 148 yards, and two touchdowns against the New York Jets.
63:09He had 11 targets on 38 catches on 30 routes, 119 yards, and a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans in week 17.
63:15And then they beat the Falcons at the end of last season, right?
63:19Yeah, they beat the Falcons. Chris Olave wasn't available for that one.
63:22And then he played the Panthers in week 15.
63:25You know, there was a Dolphins game mixed in there.
63:28So, yeah, they definitely beat up on some cupcakes at the end of last season.
63:32That is totally fair. That being said, I do like the offensive line.
63:36I think Chris Olave is the one guy to really be super, super high on.
63:40And I think the other guys are interesting role players.
63:43Like, I think Devon Valle is an interesting power slot sleeper.
63:46I like Bryce Lance getting some run with the first team offense.
63:49Yeah. Jordan Tyson. Oh, I just wrote his name down.
63:52I'll make sure to bring him up by the end of this segment.
63:56Oh, yeah. Because he can. I mean, we're pretty excited about him both as a vertical developmental, but a vertical receiver.
64:02Yep. Yep. To be Alec Pierce. Like, that's what I'm hoping he can end up being like with maybe a little bit more fluidness.
64:08I actually like, I really liked Lance. He was a top 50 player for me.
64:13I was probably one of the highest guys on him.
64:15But he, just because I thought he caught everything, his route tree wasn't expansive, but he was very toolsy.
64:21And the tools showed. Like, you want the guy coming from FCS to look like the best athlete on the field, bar none.
64:27Like, not even a question. That's what Bryce Lance looked like.
64:30So, that's, and also I just think that he, in this offense, it's what they needed.
64:35They weren't very explosive last year. That was the issue with the Saints offense.
64:39Alave is best, I think, working in that kind of intermediate area.
64:42But then I think that's where you needed the guy to take the top off.
64:46Veola is not that guy. He's a power slot, like you mentioned.
64:50Tyson could have been that. Tyson's kind of everything, I think.
64:53You know, kind of like where you want to use him.
64:56But I think Bryce Lance, at the very least, is going to have a nice role to, it might help Alave even more.
65:02But at the very least, I can envision what he is because he can take the top off the defense pretty easily.
65:09Yeah, and Jawan Johnson's a useful receiving tight end.
65:11You know, Oscar Delft definitely helped them in line.
65:14But, by the way, Jawan Johnson, he should be drafted as like a cheap flyer tight end 12 to 13-ish in your rankings.
65:20When you start to get to that, all right, it's last call with Dallas Goddard and Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.
65:26Just take Jawan Johnson because, especially for the beginning of the season because Jordan Tyson's not there.
65:31We've already seen what this can be, and he was a solid fantasy tight end flyer.
65:35The Tyson injury really does stink, and I just don't even know what to say about it at this point because it's a hamstring injury.
65:42This is what's been dogging him now literally all year.
65:45That was negative. It was 2026. Yes. As a prospect, it was injury stuff.
65:49Yeah. I was texting with someone yesterday about my theory that these – and I don't know if I've said this to
65:55you, but I think I've said it on this show.
65:58And it's like totally reckless speculation that I shouldn't even say.
66:01But, Nate, doesn't it feel like every guy who – oh, man, this dude just moves different.
66:06It's like, well, that guy just always gets hurt.
66:08Luther Byrne's hurt right now. Jordan Tyson's hurt right now.
66:11Yeah. Remember, Kadarius Toney was one of these guys.
66:14Odell Beckham was one of these guys. It's like, oh, man, how does he move like that?
66:19Well, you're not supposed to move like that, and then they get hurt all the time.
66:23Yeah. So, again, that's total – just like a theory, like a take shop thing.
66:27Muscle imbalance is usually what they think is that one side of their leg is more powerful than the other.
66:33So, like, they're so explosive. Well, remember, this is the thing with Christian Watson.
66:37He was popping a hamstring all the time. Yes.
66:39It's a very real thing. Yeah. No, because it's more guys that aren't as explosive don't have to worry about it because
66:46we don't stress our muscles to the level that these guys do.
66:49And it's not like they stress it once. They're so powerful that in a practice setting, it's dozens of times in a practice.
66:55Like, even when – you know, we just think of like, oh, I jumped really high that once.
67:01They're just doing it every route. Think of every route going, do, do, do, do, do, do, coming in and out of it.
67:07So, just so much stress. Yep. Neighbors. OBJ over the years.
67:10Like, just these guys have stressed so much in their bodies.
67:13Yeah. It's something I've always been fascinated by. You see it with track athletes all the time because they're just so powerful in certain muscles.
67:20Yep. And, again, I texted this person this theory and they just replied, well, it's not like it's a surprise.
67:26Guys, this is the deal with Tyson. So, what do you want – there's a little bit of like a, what do you want me to say?
67:33I mean, yeah. Right. Fury aside, this is the deal with Tyson.
67:37So, I do think that is – Tyson's absence and, you know, just murky rookie season now at this point is what's
67:43had me push Olave up to that kind of like Drake London level.
67:47But I'm still generally optimistic about the Saints offense, but they would be kind of like a shocking top 10 offense or something like that.
67:54I do think them being – I feel like they'll – I feel better about them being like an 18th best offense in the NFL.
68:01Maybe not quite jump up to the high highs, which I think would be good enough based on where their players are going right now in fantasy.
68:08The last team that we have to discuss here, the seventh team – I should be sixth team, New York Jets.
68:14Once again, eight spot gap as they're projected to be the 31st offense on average in the NFL.
68:19Well, their ADP rank is only 23rd because their third drafted player is Kenyon Sadiq at 131, which by the way, stop drafting Kenyon Sadiq.
68:26You're just like literally letting him pick on fire.
68:29Yeah. He's still hurt, you know. Wrong tight end.
68:31Mason Taylor is the one you want. That's the droid you're looking for.
68:35If you're being a sick pup, yeah, that's the droid you're looking for.
68:39But for the most part, this is – I mean, shoot, I would rather draft AD Mitchell at 131 than Kenyon Sadiq right now.
68:45But for the most part, this is a Brees Hall conversation, 32nd overall ADP, Garrett Wilson 51st overall.
68:51I guess, Nate, like how do you – we all know these players are good.
68:55These young guys are good. We've known that for four years now.
68:58We know they're good. Can the rest of the Jets offense, quarterback, the Frank Reich of it all, can any of that
69:04catch up to where these guys are? There's a timeline, yeah, it does work.
69:08But it's like what are you going to bet on?
69:11Something you've seen your entire life not work and then just go like, yep, nope, this time.
69:16I mean, this is the guy that's bullish on the Chargers this year.
69:20So, you know, what's – throwing glass houses right now.
69:22But it's kind of one of these – how I view them.
69:26I do have some optimism of how this offense can be.
69:29Like I think that ADP rank is actually kind of sort of fair because I – but the thing is I don't want anyone at price.
69:36But like I said, I am looking at Mason Taylor as a sneaky dart throw.
69:40If I'm kind of going for the two cheap tight ends and I want kind of variations, all right, I'm going to
69:47get, you know, the kind of those middles – like the Juwan Johnsons of the world.
69:51Okay, then I want Mason Taylor as well because I just think that he has some upside as a blocker.
69:57His receiving abilities there as well. I think Geno Smith, whatever this offense is going to be with Frank Reich, he knows how to feature tight ends.
70:04Geno hasn't really targeted tight ends, but he hasn't had tight ends to target outside Brock Bowers last year.
70:10But when he was with the Seahawks, didn't really have that guy.
70:13What's his face? The guy that ended up with Disley for a little bit, but the offense didn't really feature him.
70:19There's a lot of locket, a lot of spread stuff.
70:22So that's – but again, that's the guy I'm buying where I'd rather have that or the AD Mitchell dart throw than
70:28Brees Hall at price because it's just like – I just don't, again, want to bet on anything with this Jets offense.
70:34It's just hard. It's just hard. It just feels like such a throwaway year for everybody involved.
70:39Geno, Frank Reich, the head coach, where they're just setting up for 2027 and beyond.
70:43And so that's why it's hard for me to go.
70:46Even if there is a timeline that some of these guys work and there's some good feelings with it, it's like I'd
70:52rather venture elsewhere into stuff that I feel like is building to something.
70:56So maybe that's some narrative scouting on my part, but that's just kind of how I feel about him from a fantasy sense.
71:02I'm going to be – well, Brees Hall is just tough right now because he's banged up.
71:07I think previously he was probably – he was totally fine at the 32nd overall ADP.
71:12And to me, I think, yeah, Braylon Allen is interesting, but like Isaiah Davis has barely practiced this training camp.
71:17He's been unavailable for a while. I think they actually will feature Brees.
71:21They just paid him. So I'm comfortable with Brees.
71:23I will say just – I think I'm ready to be the goofy meme with Garrett Wilson.
71:28I think I'm going to do it again here because the reality is with Garrett Wilson, I was kind of worried coming out of the draft.
71:35Suddenly, do we have too many good young players here?
71:38Can Garrett Wilson not have that dominant target share like we're used to?
71:42I mean last year in the first six weeks, you had 34%.
71:45And then Kenyon Sabik, I heard Omar Cooper is having like the worst training camp ever.
71:50And then you're like, yep, never mind. Never mind, yeah.
71:53Garrett Wilson, he had 34% target share in the first six weeks of last season.
71:57Can it be – that won't be 34%, but can it be 27%?
72:00Yeah, probably. And even a guy like A.D. Mitchell – I don't think Mitchell will be like a high target share player.
72:07I think you want him to be kind of like a super – you know, the Walmart version of George Pickens essentially.
72:13Just line up outside on the ball and run three routes against press man coverage, which by the way, A.D.
72:19Mitchell I think can do that. That's not going to lead to a high target share.
72:23It's also going to keep Garrett Wilson off the ball where he did his best work last year as a movement Z receiver.
72:29So listen, I get it. We all know the deal with Garrett Wilson.
72:33You know, I think the Yahoo Fantasy account tweeted out the quote graph of me saying like, I know I could get
72:39hurt again, but I think I'm ready to get hurt again.
72:42And the amount of people, Nate, at the Fantasy Football Expo who showed me like, yeah, I saved that like to dunk
72:49on you later or to make fun of you later.
72:51Like it's going to haunt me all year. So thank you Aaron and the boys on the social account for setting me up on that one.
72:59But yeah, I think I'm ready to get hurt by Garrett Wilson again this year.
73:03I think Gino is good enough to just get him the ball.
73:06Like I think I think I do whatever version of Gino that he is.
73:10I think he's good enough to get him the ball and Frank Reich is Frank Reich.
73:15But if we're talking about, yeah, I think he's going to do his same old 11 personnel RPO heavy offense.
73:20You know, he usually eats in those situations is the first read player.
73:24Remember Adam Thielen even in that? Yes. Dumb Panthers offense.
73:27RPO first read, first read, first read, first read.
73:29Now we got Garrett Wilson doing that. I think I'll take the scam with Garrett Wilson.
73:34And you're cheating on the run plays too because it's like now we're increasing the pass usage even more.
73:39Like so Breeze Hall is just going to hit even more.
73:42But to add to your optimism, all right, Gino Smith, that's a lot of 60% receiver target rates.
73:47You know, not a lot of high tight end, not a lot of high running back.
73:52And it's a lot of outside receivers, a lot of 40% outside target rate.
73:56So I don't know. I'm with you. Like it's just it's one of these where it's I don't want in week eight.
74:02And again, this is just my might be me and me just betting against narrative and everything.
74:07And we take on like, why did I buy into the Jets again?
74:10I'm like, why did I just look at my Breeze Hall stocks and throwing them away?
74:15And I'm like, oh, and then Braylon Allen gets a freak injury.
74:18So I don't even get his handcuff. And I'm all mad about it because I think that's what it is.
74:24I'm yelling at myself not to buy into it because I do like aspects.
74:28I'm a guy that has liked 80 Mitchell as a prospect.
74:31Like in actually his Jets flashes are way encouraging compared to what his Colts like games were where he was literally cost him the game against the Broncos.
74:39Oh, no, no, I'm sorry. Sorry. No, it cost him a different game.
74:43That was Jonathan Taylor that cost him the game against the Broncos.
74:46It was well, it was the Rams last year.
74:48But 80 Mitchell is also they threw like the back.
74:51Remember, he was supposed to do like the backwards pass and he caught the ball and like flipped it in his hands a couple of times.
74:59Like, dude, you got to get rid of that thing.
75:01Like, yeah, he trick shot it. So, yeah, this is the tweet.
75:05Look, again, we could do a whole complicated breakdown on under center and success rates and yards per carries with like a guy like Jonathan Taylor.
75:12So how this could not work out and how it could not work out for for, you know, anyone who drafts Brees
75:18Hall or an idiot like me who's going to draft Garrett Wilson this year.
75:22It's like, well, you don't tell yourself a complicated story on that one, buddy boy.
75:26You know how it's not going to work out.
75:29We know it's not going to work out. And honestly, the old line is not bad either.
75:34If you want a little bit more optimism, too, it's like they have some talent on that old line.
75:39I know that's OK. So I'm yelling at myself right now.
75:42I don't I need to stop talking about you with the Jets because that's the one that's like it's scaring me how
75:48much how high I am getting on them. Like I said, I could do this all day.
75:53Talk myself into bad offenses. That's the whole point of this show.
75:57But before we go to break, Nate, real quick, I want we have the six teams here that we talked about.
76:02The Cardinals, the Falcons, the Raiders, the Colts, the Saints, the Jets.
76:06I know you might not be prepared for this.
76:08I'm going to ask you to do a rapid fire off the cuff because the reality here is where does it like
76:15how does it work out for these teams? Is that the offensive line is actually good?
76:19Those six teams. Best to worst offensive line of the six.
76:22I kind of have to give the Colts maybe the nod as the top one, and that's some of the scheme they use that helps it.
76:30But I would say they kind of like Tanner Bordelini, their center got a little bit better.
76:34So they're probably one. But having said that, I'd probably have the Saints up there as well.
76:39Again, if everybody's healthy, probably two for me. And then we get a nice tier.
76:43I mean, the Raiders O-line did look good, but I would have them talent level probably at them and the Cardinals at
76:49the bottom with the Jets kind of in the middle.
76:52Actually, no, here we go. The Falcons are probably at the bottom.
76:56And then I would say, yeah. Yeah. Falcons at the bottom.
76:59Raiders next after that. Okay. Sorry. I'm sure now I'm going backwards on it.
77:03So I would say, all right, here we go.
77:05Got it. Colts. Okay. One. I would go Saints.
77:08Two. Okay. Then I would go. The next. Now, this is the hard part.
77:12I guess I would go Jets three. Yeah. And I would go Jets three.
77:16And then the last group is kind of just.
77:18Yeah. Yeah. Membu does a lot. I like Fashanu because I think he got dinged by just the quarterback situation.
77:24And their interior is actually pretty good. I like Tipman.
77:27I like Myers. So actually, yeah. They're probably three right there.
77:30And then the rest, like the Falcons, I would say the Falcons are probably near the bottom out there for me as well.
77:36Just because it's just like, it just feels wrong.
77:39And I just don't think they have the scheme that's going to help them out.
77:43They're the ones that I feel the worst about.
77:45Kind of where they're sitting right now. Even though I like their guards.
77:49Brutal. Okay. So the two that we really can't come away with feeling.
77:53That was Nate's clear one and two was the Colts and the Saints.
77:56So if you are looking for a value bad offense projection wise, it would be those two.
78:01And I actually think that that makes sense. The two that I'm kind of willing to wave away on this list were the Colts and the Saints anyways.
78:09So I think some of that does come down to the offensive line play here.
78:13So there we go. All right. We are going to take our last quick break.
78:18When we come back, we will talk through some outlier teams on the other end of this list.
78:23We'll get into that right after this. All right.
78:25We're back. I feel like we need a little bit of a palate cleanser to end the show here quickly, because this
78:31is mostly been negative about how things can not go right for some of these teams.
78:36Nate, I will mention that these were the only teams, the six we discussed here that had a greater than four spot
78:42gap between where they were projected and the ADP value.
78:45Last year, there were a lot more teams that were that had a bigger gap.
78:49This year is like, I mean, the next teams down on the list were like the Browns, the Eagles, with Cowboys, which Cowboys, that was interesting.
78:56And, you know, seventh DBOA dragging them down. Yeah.
78:59DBOA dragging the Cowboys down. Colin has already written his feedback to the support email at DBOA at the FTN situation there.
79:05So anyways, not a lot of like controversy with the next ones on the list.
79:09It's like a four point gap. We're splitting hairs here.
79:12I wanted to flip it on the positive end here and talk about the teams that actually have a significantly higher wisdom
79:18of the crowd, offensive efficiency projection compared to where their players are being drafted in ADP.
79:23The 14 spot positive gap, Buffalo Bills, James Cook, 10th overall, DJ Moore, 62nd, Dalton Kincaid, 98th, obviously because Josh Allen's the,
79:29you know, the big boy here, of course, but we're not including quarterbacks, the Washington Commanders, 10 spot gap.
79:34They're projected to be the 20th best offense. They're 30th in ADP ranking ahead of only ahead of only the the Tennessee Titans and the Miami Dolphins.
79:42Okay. So there's a gap there because Terry McLaurin, 54th overall is the highest drafted player on the team.
79:47And then it's Diggs and Ja'Cory Cross, you married out outside the top 100 Seattle Seahawks.
79:52They're projected to be the 11th best offense, 20th in ADP value.
79:55And then the Denver Broncos, another nine spot gap here.
79:58Baltimore Ravens, eight spot gap. San Francisco 49ers, seven spot gap.
80:01So those teams with the four, like 14 to eight, the Bills, the Commanders, the Seahawks, the Broncos, the Ravens, which one of those surprise?
80:08Just give me one. They're really surprised you the most.
80:11The Commanders, the one is very, yeah. I mean, I should say surprise.
80:15I'm surprised that how high maybe people are holding them or rating them.
80:18Like, I'm maybe not surprised that they're like, yeah, not surprised that the ADP, I should say.
80:23I'm surprised how people have them rated so highly as far as I met again.
80:27That might be, you know, pre Laramie Tunsil news, all that.
80:30Right. Um, it's just, I'm, I'm squint at just all of them like that.
80:34Just it feels that team just franchise just feels in a weird spot right now.
80:39So it's kind of one of those I'm staying away from, um, on top of it, you know, quarterbacks health, um, is
80:45always just gonna be a big part with that and losing your star left tackle doesn't help with that.
80:50The bills is its own conundrum. So I'm not shocked.
80:53I'm not conundrum. They're their own thing because it's just the Josh Allen thing.
80:57Like, and it's just the, how the offense is James cook is properly priced.
81:01So it's kind of just like, it's more just the past catchers, which doesn't, I'm not like shocked by, um, you know,
81:07I'll tell you what, I'll tell you what, Nate, just real quick on the bills on the bills.
81:12Like it's made, this is the reason and we can close on this.
81:16And we talked about this when we did the AFC's preview.
81:19This is the reason I've gotten higher on DJ more throughout the process.
81:22This is the reason I've gotten higher on a guy like Dalton Kincaid.
81:26If he can just stay healthy this year and just bump his, his efficiency will come down if he plays more, but
81:32if you just bump his playing time up and like DJ more can be used in the right way, it's why those
81:38guys have, have gone up my rankings essentially, because there's just like, this is projected to be, and they're the most consensus
81:45one third, second, second best offense between our three sources here.
81:48And yet like they're, they're usually, Oh, everybody eats.
81:50No, I think it's going to be a couple of guys, just a few guys that eat here this year.
81:56And I watching that game in the preseason, I, you could tell Joe Brady was excited.
82:00A lot of vertical routes with DJ more vertical routes with everybody.
82:04They did some really cool stuff out of 11 personnel, which I thought was interesting getting those guys on the field.
82:10And that was with Kincaid on the field as well.
82:13So they weren't hiding them as they have in the past.
82:16There's no more like Dawson Knox getting those, you know, those reps.
82:19It was Dalton Kincaid as the tight end and 11.
82:22So that encouraged me. I actually thought the most discouraging thing was the offensive tackle play with the bills, but they are also their best lineman.
82:29So you hope that'll work itself out, but you know what I mean?
82:33So, but I, I, I am right there with you.
82:36I'm more optimistic after that kind of first showing and really all of our discussions on DJ more is maybe really more
82:42optimistic about how this all fits in together as well.
82:45Yeah, no, I would say the other one too, is I'm surprised that our sources, you know, the project and projections have
82:51the Seahawks so high because they weren't that offense last year.
82:54They were kind of like a 14th, 12th best offense, you know, some metrics get out there very explosive.
82:59But that one kind of surprised me because I actually do think that they're kind of taking a quarter step back, new play caller, no Kenneth Walker.
83:07I like price. I'm optimistic about the tight ends, but yeah, that one just a little curious to me as well.
83:13Nate, I love doing the show with you every year.
83:16I can't wait to do, I'm already excited to make this spreadsheet again next year.
83:20I'm already excited to talk through this show next season.
83:23Everybody make sure you are subscribed to football 301.
83:25We had our division preview earlier this week for the AFC South.
83:29I've heard you got a big fish coming on later in this week, so make sure you subscribe to football 301.
83:34You're not coming on though. Come on. You're the biggest fish I know.
83:38That's enough of that. That's enough of that, Nathan, please.
83:41Okay, all right. We will be back later this week.
83:44But before we go, we do have to remind you, of course, it is Yahoo's 29th year of fantasy football.
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83:54We are teaming up with Sirius XM. That's right, you can tap the Sirius XM button on NFL and college football pages
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84:07You are going to absolutely love that. By the way, bonus, Yahoo Fantasy Ultra subscribers get six months free.
84:12Okay? So, boom. Love to see that. As I mentioned, we will be back tomorrow for a rookie heat check with Hayden Winks.
84:19Yeah. Got to talk some rookies here tomorrow. We are going to be back 4 p.m.
84:23Eastern on this very YouTube channel. Subscribe, like the video.
84:26We would really appreciate it. Until tomorrow, we are out.