Biggest WR draft debates: Who to target and avoid in 'make or break' rounds

The signing of Keenan Allen signals that Alec Pierce is not currently in the team's plans, with Matt Harmon noting that Pierce's ADP should continue to fall. Pierce is dealing with health issues and faces a volatile role as a vertical-only threat in an offense that now features multiple short-area pass catchers.

Matt Harmon views Christian Watson as appropriately priced at his 66th overall ADP rather than a screaming value. While Watson is projected to lead Green Bay in receiving, his volatility and injury history make him a high-ceiling complement to safer wide receivers rather than a primary target. Harmon prefers Jayden Reed for his talent profile but remains in on the Packers' offense as a whole.

Matt Harmon has significantly updated his stance on DJ Moore, moving him ahead of his 61st overall ADP into his top 40 rankings. Harmon argues Moore was miscast in the previous offense and is a perfect fit for Joe Brady's boundary receiver role, which emphasizes the slant and deep stop routes Moore excels at. Ray agrees, noting the environment change in Buffalo makes Moore a strong target.

Matt Harmon and Ray note that Adams is a declining player from his peak but remains an elite technician. He is projected for double-digit touchdowns but likely under 900 receiving yards. His fantasy value is fragile and dependent on outlier touchdown production and the overall health of the Rams' offense. He is viewed as a 'goal-line vulture' rather than a high-volume bell-cow receiver at this stage of his career.

Despite a late-season dip and current turf toe concerns, Ray Garvin remains high on Emeka Egbuka as a breakout candidate. Garvin notes Egbuka maintained a 35% air yard share even during his slump and projects a median outcome of 1,000 yards. Matt Harmon highlights a potential role change, moving Egbuka from an outside X-receiver role to a movement Z-receiver, which should increase his access to efficient, layup targets.

Garrett Wilson's usage metrics (target share, route participation) are elite, but his production has been disappointing due to poor quarterback play and offensive scheme issues. Harmon notes that Wilson's usage changed last year to include more snaps off the line of scrimmage, which helped him maintain a 34% target share. However, concerns persist regarding the Frank Reich offense and the lack of efficiency relative to his high volume.

Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin agree that Jalen Waddle is a smash pick in the fourth round. Harmon ranks him as a fringe top-25 player, while Garvin projects a high-end range of 16 PPR points per game, noting a 30% chance of exceeding 15 points per game. Waddle is expected to transition into a movement role, allowing for more efficient, explosive play opportunities compared to his previous static X-receiver role in Miami.

Keenan Allen's arrival creates a 'gnat' situation for Josh Downs, limiting his target upside. While Harmon expects Downs' average depth of target to increase, he downgraded Downs in his rankings, though he remains an attractive target in the late 30s to early 40s WR range.

Keenan Allen signed a one-year deal with the Colts. While he remains a strong route runner who commands targets, his usage declined late last season; he failed to clear 50 yards in any game from Week 8 onward and is now 33-34 years old. He is best viewed as a late-round WR5.

Harmon and Garvin are both high on a Ladd McConkey bounce-back season. Garvin argues that McConkey's sub-15% target share in the latter half of last season was an anomaly due to team dysfunction and should not be projected forward. McConkey is viewed as the best receiver on the Chargers, playing with an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert.

Matt Harmon is ahead of the 59th overall ADP on Luther Burden, ranking him as the 49th overall player. Despite injury concerns, Harmon believes the talent and role in the Bears' offense make him a great pick. Ray notes that while a top-10 percentile outcome would mirror Amon-Ra St. Brown's 2022 season, a realistic median expectation is around 1,000 yards.

Matt Harmon and Ray highlight that Mike Evans carries significant injury risk, noting he has been banged up throughout training camp. While he remains a high-touchdown threat when on the field, his availability is a major concern, leading Harmon to rank DJ Moore and Rome Odunze ahead of him in his rankings.

Najee Harris signed with the Giants following a torn Achilles. While his role is uncertain, his presence as a pass protector and familiarity with Greg Roman's offense makes him a potential 'gnat' in the backfield that threatens the workload and ceiling of Cam Scadaboo.

Matt Harmon ranks Rome Odunze ahead of Mike Evans, citing his belief in the Bears' ecosystem and the strong usage metrics provided by the Trinity. Harmon is highly optimistic about the Bears' offense and Caleb Williams' development in his third year.

Harmon and Garvin have cooled on Terry McLaurin as a 'hammer' target due to the addition of Stephon Diggs and the injury to Laramie Tunsil. While McLaurin's usage may become more dynamic under the new coaching staff, Diggs is expected to command slot and off-the-line reps, capping McLaurin's ceiling at approximately 15 points per game.

Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon are bullish on Xavier Legette (referred to as Ted Romo McMillan in transcript) in the fourth round due to his elite usage profile. Legette recorded a 93% route participation rate and 41% air yard share as a rookie. Harmon notes Legette's 91.5% success rate on dig routes was the best among charted players, and the team plans to increase his slot usage, which was only 15% last season.

Matt Harmon ranked Legette ahead of Xavier Legette (referred to as Tedrow McMillan in transcript) as a prospect, but noted Legette needs to improve his separation against press man coverage and quick releases on slant routes. Legette also showed volatility in contested catch situations. Harmon believes he can improve, which would allow him to succeed regardless of Bryce Young's performance, though he may remain a good receiver rather than an elite number one.

Ray Garvin projects a 13.5 to 17 points per game range for Legette. Harmon notes that if Legette improves his technical areas and the Panthers' offense becomes more throw-happy under Bryce Young, Legette could be a significant value at his WR19 ADP.