WR position preview: Who we’re buying and fading at ADP

Harmon expresses skepticism regarding A.J. Brown's 2026 outlook with Drake Maye in New England, noting he does not have him in his top 12 receivers, which contrasts with his previous back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons in Philadelphia.

Matt Harmon considers AJ Brown a 'yellow light' player at his current 24th overall ADP. Harmon believes Brown is in a state of decline and no longer the 'peak elite' version of himself, suggesting he would only be a target if he were a round cheaper (in the 30s).

Matt Harmon and Ray are fading Alec Pierce due to ongoing injury concerns following ankle surgery. Pierce has not practiced all summer, and reports suggest he is not close to returning. Despite Yahoo projections for 100 targets, the analysts view him as a major risk who may miss regular-season games, making him a 'red light' player.

Harmon identifies St. Brown as a consensus top-three ranked receiver, citing his role and productivity as evidence that he is one of the best and most productive players in the league.

Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon agree that Brock Bowers is the primary fantasy answer in the Las Vegas passing attack. They suggest that while late-round receivers like Trey Tucker or Jalen Naylor might have occasional relevance, Bowers is the focal point of the offense.

DJ Moore is a 'green light' player who is better suited for his new role in Buffalo than his previous usage in Chicago. Reception Perception data suggests he was misused last year, but his skill set aligns perfectly with the routes (nines, curls, slants) he will run in Buffalo. He is expected to be the primary receiver for Josh Allen.

Matt Harmon views DJ Moore as a prime candidate to outkick his 65th overall ADP, citing a skill set that perfectly matches Josh Allen's needs. Harmon projects Moore for 1,150 yards and ranks him as a top-18 wide receiver, noting that Moore is the best receiver Allen has had since Stefon Diggs and benefits from a reunion with coach Joe Brady.

Matt Harmon is bullish on Deebo Samuel as a late-draft value, arguing that San Francisco has every incentive to use him heavily as both a rusher and receiver. Harmon projects Samuel to be the team's second-leading rusher behind Christian McCaffrey, providing cheap, high-volume production in a top-tier offense.

Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon view Denzel Boston as a sleeper who could emerge in the Cleveland offense. Harmon notes that Boston is being used in downfield post routes, similar to his college role at Washington, and that the coaching staff seems to prefer him over veterans like Jerry Judy.

Both Harmon and Garvin are high on Egbuka as a green-light target, noting his role as the team's X receiver and his potential to operate as a true number one. Harmon prefers Egbuka slightly over Ladd McConkey due to his physical build, which he believes is better suited for high-volume target handling.

Matt Harmon is buying stock in Jaden Reed at his 119th overall ADP, viewing him as a proven NFL player who was hampered by injuries last season. Harmon notes that Green Bay's shift toward 11 personnel and a potentially weaker defense/run game could lead to increased pass volume, benefiting Reed. While he acknowledges Reed may not play as many 2-receiver sets as Downs, he believes Reed's talent and role in the 'money zone' make him an underrated asset.

Matt Harmon has warmed up to Jordan Tyson as a viable rookie sleeper, noting that he is healthy and excels as a route runner against zone coverage. His ability to work breaking routes outside the numbers complements Chris Olave's skill set, making him a player to watch despite his ADP being inside the top 100.

Ray Garvin and Matt Harmon are high on Downs as a sleeper at his 113th overall ADP, projecting him for significant target volume. While currently dealing with a minor groin injury, he is expected to be a key part of the offense and is considered one of the team's 11 most talented players. Harmon believes he will be highly targeted and is not concerned about his snap share, though he notes that his role in 1-receiver sets is unlikely due to his size compared to Alec Pierce.

Ray is high on Josh Downs as a sleeper at his 113th overall ADP, provided he stays healthy. Ray notes that he has had Downs projected highly since his college days at North Carolina and views him as a key target in the Colts' offense.

Garvin and Harmon view McConkey as a green-light player, highlighting his role in the Chargers' offense under Mike McDaniel and his potential to be deployed in ways similar to Tyreek Hill's pre-snap motion role.

Luther Burden is currently dealing with an injury that may keep him sidelined through the end of the month. While he remains a talented prospect, his missed practice time in a detailed offense is a concern. He is currently priced in the 50s on Yahoo, and while he remains a target, the gap between his ADP and Rome Odunze's is considered unjustified.

Garvin identifies Malik Nabers as a green-light player despite his recent injury, arguing that his talent and role warrant drafting him despite the typical fear surrounding injury-recovery situations.

Despite initial concerns regarding his injury, Matt Harmon and Ray have shifted to a 'green light' stance on Nabers. He is viewed as an elite talent who, even at 80% health, will command significant volume. Reception Perception data highlights his 84.4% success rate versus press (98th percentile), placing him in the same tier as elite receivers like A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson. He is considered a top-five real-life receiver talent.

Parker Washington is a 'green light' player at his 78th overall ADP. Reports from Jacksonville indicate he is consistently performing well in practice and is expected to be a primary fixture on the field. Despite the presence of Brian Thomas Jr. and others, Washington is projected to lead the team in receiving counting stats and points per game.

Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin highlight Nacua as a premier example of modern receiver evolution, noting his ability to operate as a lone receiver in heavy personnel sets and his massive 220-yard, 2-touchdown postseason performance as evidence of his elite ceiling.

Matt Harmon labels Rashee Rice a 'glaring red light' due to off-field risks, injury history, and a potential role shift. Harmon notes Rice's extremely low air yards per target (4.69, ranking 112th of 112) and argues that the addition of Kenneth Walker will change the Chiefs' offense, potentially reducing Rice's reliance on short, run-game-extension targets.

Matt Harmon notes that Rashad Bateman is expected to move around the field more in the new Baltimore offense under Declan Doyle. While Harmon is not recommending him for redraft leagues, he suggests Bateman is a forgotten player in best ball formats who could benefit from increased alignment versatility.

Rome Odunze is a 'green light' player at his 67th overall ADP. Despite social media narratives pitting him against Luther Burden, Odunze is viewed as a high-upside asset in Ben Johnson's offense. He is expected to serve as an ISO receiver in heavy personnel sets (12/13), leveraging his elite route running and ability to beat man coverage to command targets.

Stefon Diggs is a 'green light' value pick at his 115th overall ADP. Despite the Laramie Tunsil injury impacting the offense, Diggs remains highly efficient, having posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. He is expected to operate in the slot role for Jayden Daniels, providing a reliable target floor that could allow him to significantly outperform his current draft cost.

Garvin is significantly higher on Terrace Marshall Jr. than the market, projecting him for 140-155 targets and potential 1,200-1,400 yard production as the primary target earner in Carolina, despite concerns about quarterback Bryce Young.

Matt Harmon has downgraded Terry McLaurin from a 'green light' player to a lower-tier option. The arrival of Stefon Diggs, who is expected to command high-value 'layup' targets, combined with the offensive impact of the Laramie Tunsil injury, makes it harder for McLaurin to access the vertical opportunities he needs to sustain high fantasy production.

Matt Harmon is very high on Zay Flowers, ranking him as his WR14 and 29th overall player. Harmon expects a breakout season for Flowers in the new Baltimore offensive scheme.