7 offenses trending up & down entering Week 3

Brown's injury status and return timeline remain unclear. Matt Harmon expresses concern about when he will return and what his performance will look like upon return, citing uncertainty as a major fantasy concern for Patriots receivers going forward.

AJ Brown is out and not expected to return for four more weeks; his absence significantly limits the Patriots' passing game creativity and offensive ceiling.

Thielen is running on 90% of dropbacks in an offense that ranks first in plays per game and first in no-huddle rate; Matt Harmon expects the offense to turn increasingly pass-heavy as the season progresses, with potential for 40+ pass attempts per game, making Thielen a core target in a high-volume passing attack.

Ingold, a fullback who has been in the Chargers' offense for four years, is making blocking mistakes and missing assignments at the point of attack on blocking plays; these auxiliary blocker errors are a key reason for the offense's poor performance, not just the offensive line.

Alec Pierce is second in burst metric (9.37 mph off the line, just behind Chris Olave) and has more routes where he hits 20 mph or more than anybody else since he earned the 'lead freak' designation. However, he's currently hurt.

Kamara is benefiting from Derek Carr's receiver-friendly play-calling and Kellen Moore's scheme. The offense is running a high volume of plays each week, and Kamara is one of the two primary pass-game targets alongside Chris Olave. Matt Harmon is bullish on passing game players in this Saints offense due to pace and Carr's tendency to get receivers into good rhythm.

Matt Harmon attributes the Buccaneers' passing game struggles to Baker Mayfield's play; he's described as being in his own head and trying to do too much after already getting paid. Harmon suggests the Buccaneers should run the ball 35 times to settle Mayfield down, indicating concerns about his decision-making and composure through two games.

Mayfield is creating his own bad luck through bad decisions and turnovers; he ranks 30th in sack EPA loss per drop back and is forcing aimless throws into tight windows rather than working within the system, compounding process-driven mistakes that led to fumble losses against Cincinnati.

Mayfield ranks first in air yards per attempt on early downs but is 30th in sack EPA loss per drop back, indicating he is trying to get everything back through aggressive, aimless throws rather than executing the intermediate, system-based passing game that fits his receivers' skill sets.

Baker Mayfield's performance is inconsistent and cap-dependent; he's never the 15th-best quarterback in the NFL but rather oscillates between 25th and 5th with no middle ground. His lows are lows and highs are highs, and at age 30+ with $50 million in cap hit, he must hit star throws in the red zone but is missing them, as evidenced by a missed post-route to A Book on fourth down in Week 2.

Baker Mayfield's efficiency with and without Mike Evans is stark: 7.3 yards per drop-back with Evans (8th among 37 QBs) vs. 6.6 without (22nd); success rate 6th with Evans (comparable to Dak Prescott) but 36th without. This shows heavy reliance on Evans and poor efficiency when he's unavailable, with many empty forays and screens filling the play-calling.

Corum looked awesome on Monday night and is ranked ahead of Tony Pollard this week; he's an explosive run guy who could benefit from the Broncos' run defense struggles; he's viable this week despite being in a two-series, one-series split with Kyron Williams, and could get more carries if Williams fumbles again or gets injured.

Allen is a decent runner at running back for the Jets, part of a diverse backfield that gives the offense flexibility to pivot depending on matchup.

Hall is very talented but the Jets are running gap-based concepts and hunt big plays; they're 11th in rushing success rate so far this year, showing a more sustaining run game; Hall is part of a diverse offensive attack that can attack defenses in multiple ways.

Lance has run 77 routes this season and is operating as a sacrificial player in the Saints offense, drawing only 6.5% targets per route. His role is to occupy defenders on concepts like take-two routes that free up other receivers; he's positioned in the slot to draw coverage and create space for Chris Olave and other pass catchers.

Lance is getting traditional offensive looks with two-post routes that take two defenders with him, creating space for receivers. Matt Harmon compares his process favorably to Derek Carr's—he gets the ball to the right target, gives plays chances, and gets rid of the ball when pressured, including a well-placed wheel route throw to A.J. Brown on third down despite immediate pressure. This good process is expected to lead to big plays down the road.

Bryce Young is fantasy's quarterback two through two weeks; he's been pushing the football aggressively with good looks from the offense, though the caveat is that Carolina faced the Bears defense in week one (which is weak against the pass) and the Falcons (a zombie team). The offense has been aggressive on early downs and in obvious passing situations, which is encouraging for his sustainability.

Matt Harmon's evaluation has improved through two weeks; Young is bailing pockets earlier than desired but offsetting inefficiency with explosive plays downfield (including to Xavier Leggett) rather than just checkdowns. He's reduced throwaway rates and is turning more balls in play, showing increased confidence in his reads. Harmon is encouraged by aggression and willingness to push the ball, though he wants to see performance against better defenses before finalizing 2026 outlook; the Eagles game will be a key test of whether the Panthers can matriculate the ball down the field.

Young is showing more confidence and better decision-making with experience; he's clearing the bar of being able to start and play well in the NFL with good surrounding talent. Matt Harmon believes the Panthers' offensive surroundings are strong enough to support Young's development, and he's generally buying the Panthers' trend up despite only two games played.

Bryce Young is willing to 'chuck it' and is doing creation stuff on third downs; the Panthers rank 10th in pass rate over expected and first in plays per game, first in no-huddle rate, and first in seconds per play, suggesting the offense will turn increasingly pass-heavy with potential for 40+ pass attempts per game as the season progresses.

Bryce Young has run 77 routes through two weeks, indicating significant involvement in the passing game despite limited touches; this high route volume suggests growing offensive integration and potential for increased target opportunities.

Matt Harmon is high on Bucky Irving as a viable running back who will be real and productive; he knew this preseason and intended to use Irving as his flex player but missed out on redraft shares due to other options. Harmon believes the Buccaneers' run game has meat on the bone and Irving can be a key part of it, even though the passing game is struggling.

Irving holds 77% of running back touches with Sean Tucker and Kenny Gain providing minimal role; he is the clear lead back in Tampa Bay's run game, which ranks 17th in rushing success rate on early downs and 14th in explosive rushes with potential to reach top 10 in that category.

Matt Harmon intended Irving as his flex play for the entire season but failed to follow through; the Tampa Bay run game is real and Irving is a big-time hit at the position with the run game looking good as a bare minimum outcome.

Otton is being forced into a Mike Evans replacement role as the primary tight end target, but Baker Mayfield is making poor decisions by forcing the ball into tight windows to Otton rather than executing the intermediate, system-based passing game that should define Tampa Bay's offense.

Ward had a nice game against the Eagles, standing out as a top receiver on third down; for the Titans, it's all about making sure Ward is the right guy, with his play being more important to real football than fantasy viability at this stage.

Godwin is built for efficiency with intermediate and underneath routes in Tampa Bay's system rather than aggressive deep-ball opportunities; the offense is throwing a lot of screens to manage Baker Mayfield's decision-making issues.

Chris Olave is one of four teams with two wide receivers in the top 18 in route participation (over 90%); he's at the top of the burst metric (9.39 mph off the line, easily the highest) and is one of the fastest long-speed guys in the league. He's part of the Saints offense which is trending up.

Olave is receiving frequent targets on quick out routes and over-the-middle concepts from Derek Carr. Matt Harmon notes Carr developed great chemistry with Olave last year and continues to launch it at least three times over the middle to him per game, leaving him wide open. Olave benefits from Bryce Lance's decoy role and Kellen Moore's receiver-friendly play-calling scheme.

Olave is playing up to his contract and more, earning less per year than D.K. Metcalf despite superior production. Matt Harmon calls him a superstar and projects him as an all-pro this year, expressing frustration that he didn't win rookie of the year. The Saints' passing game is fantasy-friendly, and Olave is a key piece driving that offense's upside.

Chuba Hubbard is going down as one of the best picks in fantasy right now despite the Jonathan Brooks mystery box hype in the offseason; he's been rock solid and useful as a receiver. The Panthers brought in Austin Eckler for a workout but he didn't sign, leaving this as the Chuba Hubbard show going forward. The run game still looks really good and interesting, and Hubbard is executing well.

The Panthers' run game has been poor through two weeks; Matt Harmon notes the interior offensive line is getting pushed back and susceptible to strength, and the team's run game is 'really bad right now,' which may force the offense to go pass-heavy rather than lean on Hubbard as a featured back.

Moore is doing 'awesome stuff' in man-to-man coverage and the Panthers are running concepts where both he and Thielen are live; he's getting touches in the red zone and on third downs, including a designed red zone touchdown on a divide concept that beats quarters coverage.

Darren Waller has been a really tough guard in red zone looks for the Panthers, getting sprint looks in the end zone despite being 34 years old. He's still bigger than everybody else down there and provides value in goal-line situations alongside the elite receiver duo.

Njoku is currently injured; he was also noted for a poor play where he volleyball-set a ball into the air, contributing to the Chargers' execution problems before his injury status became a concern.

Boston is being considered as a flex option by Matt Harmon, who is looking to deploy him in flex spots given the uncertainty in the Patriots' backfield and passing game. His role appears to be emerging as a potential outlet in a struggling offense.

Matt Harmon is considering Denzel Boston as a flex option given the Patriots' backfield committee and passing game limitations; Boston represents a potential pivot point in a frustrating offense.

Boston has impressed early in the NFL with training camp hype that has continued into the regular season; he's getting number one target routes and Deshaun Watson is throwing him back shoulder fades and end zone fades, showing the team wants to get him touches and routes; he's a player to be pleased with so far.

Matt Harmon identifies Derek Carr as a quarterback-friendly play caller's ideal match. Carr has developed quick chemistry with receivers, particularly Chris Olave, and operates in Kellen Moore's high-volume, receiver-friendly system. Harmon expects Carr to continue launching the ball frequently over the middle and on quick routes, supporting sustainability in the Saints passing game.

Drake May's scrambling rate is encouraging; Matt Harmon believes the film against the Steelers was better than perceived, and he remains a buy-low quarterback option despite early struggles against strong defenses.

Eli Rariton is the only viable skill player in the Patriots offense outside of Drake May; Matt Harmon highlights him as a dynasty-league target with upside, though he has dealt with minor injuries.

Nabers ran routes at the wrong depth and took a bad break on a completion, exemplifying the Chargers' poorly coached receiver group; he also dropped a wide-open bootleg pass, contributing to the team's execution issues that are limiting offensive efficiency.

Wilson is on the field for 90% of dropbacks for the Jets, making him the primary target; he has plenty of explosiveness and is the clear focal point of the offense, though the team is also developing secondary options like Corey Davis Mitchell to avoid making Wilson too easy to defend.

Williams is replacing Omar Cooper as the slot receiver for the Jets; he's described as a dirty work guy who helps draw attention away from Garrett Wilson on sale concepts and flood routes, helping open up the offense.

Jalen Coker is a real deal high-end receiver who has emerged as a top-tier target in the Panthers offense; he's running 90% route participation, accounting for 27.3% of targets, and has nine first downs on 18 targets (50% conversion rate). He's already at 58 snaps on the outside, showing versatility beyond the slot. His burst metric (third in NFL at 9.37 mph off the line) and ability to win vertically with speed make him a legitimate top-24 NFL receiver right now, better than Marvin Harrison Jr. and Luther Burden in current production. He was cut after his first training camp and signed to the practice squad, making his emergence even more remarkable.

Coker has one of the best contract extensions in the league, getting paid like a top-25 receiver while being undervalued in fantasy. Matt Harmon highlights his contract as exceptional value, comparing it favorably to Alan Lazard's deal from years ago, suggesting he's a bargain relative to his market rate.

Jonathan Brooks has been placed on IR and will not be part of the Panthers proceedings going forward, clearing the path for Chuba Hubbard to be the featured back.

Jordan Tyson is expected to be ramped up in the Saints offense at an unknown timeline. Matt Harmon is curious whether Tyson will develop the same quick chemistry with Derek Carr that Carr has shown with Chris Olave and other receivers when he returns to action.

Herbert bobbed and weaved to complete a touchdown pass on a poorly designed bootleg play that left elite pass rusher Max Crosby unblocked, a worst-case scenario against elite edge rushers; the Chargers' offensive design and execution issues are limiting his efficiency despite his individual playmaking ability.

Yeboah is an explosive tight end option for the Jets who can be targeted depending on matchup; the team has a bevy of tight ends and can pivot their personnel to attack different defensive weaknesses.

Kyle Williams received an in-breaker route instead of a go route in Week 2, which Matt Harmon views as encouraging and a sign of increased involvement in the Patriots' passing game.

Williams is the lead back for the Rams but is in a two-series, one-series split with Blake Corum; he's susceptible to fumbles and getting banged up despite being a talented runner, which could open opportunities for Corum; he had a designer touchdown but could also lose carries if he fumbles again.

McConkey is the Chargers' efficiency engine; when on field, they rank top-seven in EPA per play, but when off field they're bottom-two (better than only Falcons), making his health critical to the offense's fantasy viability; he's been incredibly efficient and is this year's potential Jackson Smith-Njigba type, a poor man's version of what JSN is to the Seahawks.

Taylor is a nice inline tight end for the Jets who can do enough as a receiver; he's part of the team's diverse tight end arsenal that allows them to attack different defensive schemes.

Hardman is built for efficiency with intermediate and underneath routes in Tampa Bay's system rather than aggressive deep-ball opportunities; the offense is throwing a lot of screens to manage Baker Mayfield's decision-making issues.

Hardman is in the exact role desired for him in Tampa Bay's offense: off-ball on 77% of snaps in Week 2, in the slot 40%, backfield 16%, and motion option; he is winning on big breaking routes and should be a beneficiary of the intermediate-focused passing system.

Evans is not walking through the door for Tampa Bay; the receiver group is built around intermediate, system-based efficiency rather than the YOLO deep-ball style that Evans represented, with Godwin and Mecole Hardman better suited to underneath and intermediate routes.

Mike Evans is the centerpiece of Baker Mayfield's efficiency; in 2023, they hammered him on out routes because Evans is bigger and dominant against man coverage, winning on all out routes. Baker loves throwing out routes to the field with space, and Evans' presence is critical to the offense's success, as evidenced by the dramatic efficiency drop when Evans is unavailable.

Johnson hasn't had good games to start the season and is a supporting actor in the Chargers' offense; the team's efficiency is heavily dependent on McConkey's health, leaving Johnson as a secondary option without clear fantasy upside early in the year.

Stevenson is splitting carries with Trayveon Henderson and Deon Jackson in the Patriots' backfield, making it difficult to predict touch distribution. Matt Harmon, who owns some Stevenson shares, expresses frustration about the unpredictability of the Patriots' run game distribution, noting it's fantasy-frustrating despite some positive real-life football elements.

Carries are split between Stevenson and Henderson; Matt Harmon notes this creates fantasy frustration despite liking the real-football approach, making Stevenson less reliable as a fantasy asset in a committee backfield.

Pollard is projected as a running back 30-34 every week; he's splitting the backfield with Tajay Spears and Nick Singleton (who got 14% of touches in week two), making it difficult for him to be a viable flex option; the Titans offense isn't encouraging outside of Cam Ward's play.

Kelce is not playing up to his contract right now, despite the contract's size. Matt Harmon expresses concern about his current production level relative to his financial commitment, suggesting drafters who took him early are disappointed with his performance so far.