PodcastFrom Yahoo Fantasy Forecast
Data Dump for Week 2: Kenneth Walker's workhorse role & Justin Jefferson is QB proof
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 27 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 16, 2026
Published
Wed, September 16, 2026
38
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
Dalton KincaidChristian WatsonDeebo SamuelKenneth Walker IIIStefon DiggsTrey McBrideZay FlowersAntonio WilliamsBucky IrvingCade OttonChris GodwinJacoby BrissettJalen CokerJayden Reed
Player analysis
Player insights
Antonio Williams
PositiveBreakout62:41
Antonio Williams impressed in Week 1 with explosive film and strong man-coverage beating ability, though his fantasy value is currently capped by limited route participation.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveUsage54:35
Bucky Irving saw excellent usage in Week 1, recording 59% route participation and a 26% target per route rate out of 11 personnel. He is viewed as a high-upside player in the Buccaneers' offense.
Insight pageCade Otton
NegativeUsage54:26
Cade Otton is playing as the inline tight end for the Buccaneers but is not expected to be a significant factor in the passing game, recording only 0.5 yards per route in Week 1.
Insight pageChris Godwin
NegativeUsage53:51
Chris Godwin is being deployed as a full-time slot receiver with a 97% route participation rate, but his usage has shifted toward a 'pseudo move tight end' role with an average depth of target of only 0.3 yards in Week 1.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage18:15
Garvin highlights Watson as one of the players who cleared a high Trinity usage threshold in Week 1, suggesting his Week 1 production may have underlying stability.
Insight pagePositiveProjection67:05
Christian Watson benefits from the Packers' increased pace and pass-heavy philosophy. He is viewed as a top-15 receiver for the upcoming week.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage18:30
Garvin and Harmon are high on Kincaid's usage, noting he played 73% of snaps, ran routes on 70% of dropbacks, and lined up in the slot, wide, or backfield on 55% of his snaps. He earned the second-highest Trinity usage score among tight ends in Week 1.
Insight pagePositiveUsage20:18
Dalton Kincaid saw a significant usage increase in Week 1, playing 81% of snaps and 69% of routes. He lined up out wide for 113 yards and looked more explosive and physically dense than in previous seasons, free from the PCL injury that previously hampered him. Matt Harmon notes Kincaid was one of the most impressive players on the field and should be ranked higher.
Insight pagePositiveUsage74:23
Dalton Kincaid showed strong snap counts and performance in Week 1, making him a high-value asset that was unfortunately benched by Ray Garvin.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveUsage59:30
Deebo Samuel remains a key part of the 49ers' offense, seeing 7 targets and a carry in Week 1. He is highlighted as a veteran who continues to provide significant fantasy value.
Insight pagePositiveUsage60:00
Deebo Samuel saw seven targets and a carry out of the backfield in Week 1, serving as a reliable veteran option for fantasy lineups early in the season.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
PositiveProjection24:06
Jacoby Brissett delivered an outstanding Week 1 performance, ranking 5th in success rate, 11th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and 9th in EPA per dropback. Matt Harmon highlights his smart quarterbacking, specifically his ability to alert throws and manipulate safeties, suggesting he will remain the starter over Carson Beck for the foreseeable future.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveUsage14:02
Harmon highlights Coker's impressive usage, noting he ran routes on 93% of dropbacks in Week 1, which is a key indicator of potential sustainability despite the small sample size.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeUsage69:09
Jayden Reed's fantasy outlook is currently difficult due to limited route participation, specifically in sets with two or fewer receivers.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveProjection42:01
Matt Harmon observes that Jonathan Taylor looked great in Week 1, though he expresses concerns regarding the Colts' quarterback play.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveRole50:06
Matt Harmon suggests benching Jordan Addison for now, noting that while he has talent, his target share is low when Carson Wentz is under center. He is a volatile, downfield-dependent player who needs to hit big plays to be fantasy-relevant.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection71:16
Jordan Love is expected to have cleaner matchups in the coming weeks after a volatile Week 1, with the Packers' offense showing a clear shift toward a faster, pass-heavy approach.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection79:46
Josh Allen remains a top-tier fantasy quarterback, dropping 35.6 points in Week 1 and proving that having an elite player at the position is a winning strategy.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveUsage47:17
Justin Jefferson is described as a 'cheat code' when Carson Wentz is at quarterback. In six games with Wentz last year, Jefferson averaged 7 catches, 95 yards, and 10 targets per game. He commands a massive 31.5% target share from Wentz, making him a must-start.
Insight pageKendrick Bourne
NegativeUsage25:04
Kendrick Bourne saw good usage in Week 1, but Matt Harmon and Ray are cautious about his outlook for Week 2 against the Seahawks, with Ray ranking him as the WR98.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage10:52
Garvin notes that Kenneth Walker was a clear workhorse in Week 1, and despite some poor tackling across the league, his performance was a standout.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout30:40
Kenneth Walker is viewed as a league-winning workhorse after a 191-scrimmage-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 1. He played 77% of snaps and handled 85% of backfield opportunities, including passing-down and red-zone work. Ray ranks him as the RB3 rest-of-season, behind only Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, citing the Chiefs' structural shift toward a run-heavy, gap-scheme offense.
Insight pageKeon Coleman
MarShawn Lloyd
NegativeDepth Chart70:44
Marshawn Lloyd is not viewed as a direct replacement for Josh Jacobs, and the Packers' current running back situation remains ineffective.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeUsage25:28
Marvin Harrison Jr. had limited production in Week 1, with Matt Harmon noting that the offense is spreading the ball around rather than forcing targets into bracket coverage. Harmon does not currently view him as a top-30 receiver play for Week 2.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveValue67:05
Matthew Golden is a rising fantasy asset who secured a clear-cut X-receiver role in Week 1. Despite some drops, his usage and separation skills make him a WR3 candidate.
Insight pageMike Evans
PositiveProjection61:14
Matt Harmon views Mike Evans as a fringe top-15 to top-20 wide receiver for Week 2, recommending he be started as long as practice reports remain clean.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveUsage44:04
Matt Harmon highlights that Rashee Rice saw a career-low 6.9% targets per route in Week 1, with an extremely low 2.5 average depth of target. While he remains playable, his role has shifted significantly, and he is no longer the volume-heavy focal point of the Chiefs' offense.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveUsage59:30
Stefon Diggs is a strong fantasy start if he continues to command 7-9 targets per game, as his usage remains outstanding compared to his teammates.
Insight pagePositiveRole62:24
Stefon Diggs looked explosive in Week 1 and remains the WR2 across from Terry McLaurin. Despite low route participation (29%), he is a WR3 candidate for the upcoming slate of man-coverage heavy matchups.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeUsage64:09
Matt Harmon expresses concern for Terry McLaurin's fantasy outlook, noting that the emergence of Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams as slot/Z options may force McLaurin into lower-percentage boundary targets.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveUsage44:00
Matt Harmon notes that Travis Kelce was the only Chiefs receiver to reach league-average usage in Week 1, and he remains the preferred fantasy option in the Kansas City passing attack over the younger receivers.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage19:00
Garvin identifies McBride as a top-tier tight end, noting he achieved the highest Trinity usage score among all tight ends in Week 1.
Insight pagePositiveProjection25:29
Trey McBride remains a focal point of the Cardinals' offense, with Ray ranking him as the overall TE1 for Week 2.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
NegativeUsage67:38
Tucker Kraft was a part-time player in Week 1, but his usage was encouraging enough to suggest he could become a more significant factor as he gets up to speed.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
NegativeUsage44:07
Matt Harmon advises against feeling confident in starting Xavier Worthy, noting that he was below league average in both usage and production in Week 1.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveMatchup39:46
Zay Flowers successfully shredded the Colts' man-heavy defensive scheme in Week 1, according to Matt Harmon.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout40:36
Matt Harmon notes that Zay Flowers is being moved all over the formation by the Ravens, and he was on track for a massive performance against the Colts before his injury. Harmon previously made a bold prediction that Flowers would lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Big show for you here today. It is the Week 2 Data Dump with our guy Ray Garvin and it is a massive show for you all.
0:08We've got 10 stats you need to know coming out of Week 1.
0:12What to believe, what not to believe. We take a deep dive into offensive scoring, why it was so up in Week
0:191, plus which positions can you trust the most after their Week 1 output?
0:23Is it running backs? Is it wide receivers? I bet you can guess based on some of the other conversations we've had on the show.
0:31We also talked about Dalton Kincaid getting fully unlocked, Jacoby Reset being one of the best quarterbacks.
0:36Week 1, what is happening here? Do we believe this stuff?
0:39Is it sustainable? All that and more come up on today's show, plus a recap of the Yahoo Fantasy League where one
0:46of us on this show did in fact beat the other.
0:49All that and more come up on today's show.
0:52Let's get into it. What's going on everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:55Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast and it is a hell of a day to talk ball and joining me to do just that.
1:02He's a man who said, it's like Christmas morning for nerds here on Tuesday after Week 1, after the weekly slate is officially in the books.
1:10It is my good friend, Ray Garvin. Ray, what's going on, buddy?
1:14Yeah, you're saying that I'm your good friend, but after the pre-show banter, I don't know.
1:19You're dogging on me from the decisions that I've made from our head-to-head battle in our expert league.
1:24The Cowboys did not win. There will be no Cowboy hat on today's show.
1:29I'm here. As Marshawn Lynch said, I'm here so I don't get fined, Matt Harmon, but we will make it through the show.
1:35I will have some fun. I got some good data points for you, but it was not the best weekend for Ray Garvin.
1:42Yeah, Ray, you guys don't know this, that we fine Ray $25,000 if he misses a show.
1:48Conduct detrimental to the team. So he is here despite the fact that he did take a loss in the Yahoo Fantasy
1:54League, as we will talk about at the end of this show.
1:58We'll leave you guys in suspense of who it was that he might have lost to, but people say that the man
2:05that he lost to is underrated, handsome, in the best shape of his life at 35 years old.
2:10But we'll get to that later on in the program.
2:13Because before we get to all that, we have a lot to talk about here.
2:18It is the weekly data dump. We share five stats that you need to know coming out of week number one, heading into week number two.
2:25So without any further ado, welcome to the week two data dump.
2:29Yes, science. My calculations are correct. You're going to see some serious.
2:33Oh, yes, we're going to see some serious stuff here with the stats that we have, Ray, because man, it feels it
2:39does feel really good, actually, to have new things to pour over to dashboards to compare things to 2025 new stats, new film.
2:46It's been great to dive into all this. So let's let's get it rolling here.
2:51What is your first data point coming out of week one?
2:54Yeah, Matt, I think my first data point will roll into yours.
2:58But let's just talk about what we saw on Wednesday and what we saw Thursday and what we saw on Sunday as a collective unit across the NFL.
3:06Points, points and more points. Scoring was ridiculous here in week one.
3:10Seven hundred and ninety one points. 49.4 points per game, tying 2012 for the highest scoring week one of not like this
3:17year or last year or five years or a day since the Super Bowl in the Super Bowl era.
3:22This past week one was the highest scoring week one.
3:26And I believe we've got a tweet that this past Sunday was the highest scoring Sunday in NFL history.
3:31So it was just points galore, which makes Matt, I don't know if that confuses me more because of some of the
3:38performance outputs or makes me more bullish for what we should see moving forward.
3:42So here's the thing. Back in 2012, when that record was set, scoring did fall to about 45 points a game after
3:49that for the remainder of the season. So about a nine percent decline from what we saw in week one.
3:55And my big point here is we talk about this a lot, especially with the receiver position.
4:00But this can this extends to tight ends, it extends to the running back.
4:04Chase usage, not the result. Chase the usage, not the touchdowns.
4:08There were a lot of points that were scored, a lot of players scoring touchdowns.
4:12But the thing that's more sustainable than a touchdown is usage.
4:16It's target share, it's snap share, it's route percentage.
4:18I know that it looks like across fantasy football, people are kind of I don't want to say making excuses, but coping
4:25for some of the zeros or the low outputs because, you know, not getting the targets, not getting the rushing share.
4:31But you really do have to chase that output, that opportunity.
4:35But we saw scoring at such a high clip in week one.
4:38And I think that's why we got some really cool fantasy finishes from a team level and a player perspective coming out of week one.
4:46Scoring was off the charts, record setting performances this past week of NFL action.
4:50And, you know, Matt, just from a just ball philosophy standpoint, I always thought that defenses were ahead of the offenses to start the season.
4:58But it did not feel like that across the board.
5:01In fact, Matt Harmon, there was one team, one team out of 32 failed to score double digit points in week one.
5:07You know who it was? L.A. Rams, baby. The number one offense from last season.
5:12So just again, what do you do with this information coming out of week one?
5:16I really don't know. I'm excited and encouraged. But man, offenses were cooking.
5:20Yeah, it's obviously small sample size, of course, when you look at some of these results.
5:25But especially, you know, the L.A. Rams, what are you going to take away from that?
5:30You know, they're in Australia, the whole travel situation.
5:33By the way, have you seen Sean McVay and some of these media availabilities lately?
5:37That man, I saw a video of him updating the media on Miles Garrett and the surgery and all that.
5:43That man has not been outside other than, you know, to like get from his car to the office.
5:49Like, I don't think he's seen daylight out other than the practice field in a week.
5:54OK, this guy has been locking himself into the dungeon, trying to figure out how he can make it better after this disturbing display from week one.
6:02Not too concerned about that necessarily, although general vibes around the Rams maybe could be a little bit better right now, given the Garrett situation.
6:10But yeah, I think the most interesting thing there, Ray, and I'm curious, just like your theory on it.
6:16And we don't know, obviously, no concrete situation. But like, what is your theory on the lack of defenses being ahead of the offenses?
6:23Because typically that is what we see early on in the season.
6:26So I've got no data to support this. This is just the Ray Garvin gut feel, the vibes here.
6:32This not playing in preseason, Matt, I don't. I think it's a bigger detriment to the defensive side of the ball than it is offense.
6:40Offensively, you could still fire off as an O-lineman, right?
6:43You can still fire off there. The receivers are still running routes full speed.
6:47But defensively, going out there and actually bringing people down to the ground, tackling was poor.
6:52I mean, we saw the game last night. I'm not saying Kenneth Walker wasn't going to smash, but some of the tackling was just atrocious.
6:59I think this lack of playing in the preseason, just my feeling, it's starting to rear its head a little bit.
7:06I think guys need to get out there, hit, play, tackle to the ground because it doesn't happen in practice.
7:12I've got no data behind that. But that's just my feeling and watching it and seeing these offenses just score, score, score, score, score.
7:19And defenses being in this inability to stop anybody.
7:22Mike Tomlin, I think through the theory out there that it's not even just necessarily preseason, it's training camp for these defenses
7:29because they're not live tackling, as you pointed out, in training camps.
7:32And obviously some of that I think is self-serving because Mike Tomlin used to run the most physical practices in the game.
7:39It's like him and Andy Reid, the two old school guys.
7:42So maybe that's just a little bit of his own biases there.
7:46But I think it's a pretty good theory. And the funny part about your note where it's usually preseason, we see a
7:53lot of times that the offenses get off the slow starts because of the lack of time in preseason because the communication is not down.
8:00Although actually, if you look at the data, Ray, points per drive from week number one, these are the teams that were
8:07kind of in the top five to six of that category.
8:10Bears, Giants, Jags, Ravens, Niners, Bills. Other than the Ravens and the Giants, those are holdovers, guys who already had the system established and everything like that.
8:18You flip it down to the bottom five teams.
8:21It's Rams, Broncos, Steelers, Falcons, Titans, Browns. Obviously, again, Rams, we can put them to the side.
8:26Weird situation there. But Broncos, new offensive coordinator. Steelers, new play caller.
8:30Falcons, new play caller. Titans, new play caller. Browns, new play caller.
8:33So it's a lot of these teams, continuity-wise, other than, of course, like I said, Giants, man, they don't want to twist the knife there.
8:41But, man, they really ran all over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night.
8:45And the Ravens, really impressive debut with Declan Doyle in there.
8:48That was awesome. But everybody else, it's continuity at the play caller position.
8:52And I think this conversation and the theory behind this will flow very well into your first data point because you get excited about that scoring output.
9:00Like, man, you look across the board. And, again, we keep going back to it.
9:05I know you've talked about it a bunch. I've talked about it.
9:09You tell me the Bears put up 60 and between the big three, they get seven total receptions?
9:14I wouldn't believe you. I'd be like, there's no – it's impossible of happening.
9:18So I think you have to be encouraged. But I also think that there is a level of, like, let's pump the
9:25brakes before we declare everybody like a fantasy superstar going into week two.
9:29And I know you've got a pretty cool thing that we'll talk about here with yours.
9:34But I think we've got to – we've just got to reel it in a little bit even though the scoring was ridiculous in week one.
9:42Yeah, a little bit of relax here coming out of week number one.
9:46And speaking of that, for my first data point, we'll just throw out a chart here.
9:50Shout out to our good friend J.J. Zacharison, late-round quarterback, threw out this great chart here.
9:55You guys can check it out if you're watching with us on YouTube.
9:59You can also check out his Twitter feed if you're listening to the audio version, at late-round quarterback, of course.
10:05He essentially looked at how much does week one scoring actually tell you in fantasy football.
10:10Pulled every season since 2011. Took the end-of-season top 24, QB tight end, and top 48 running back and wide receiver.
10:17Asked how well a player's points per game through any given week lines up with their season-long point per game.
10:23So it really is great if you're watching this on YouTube.
10:26If you're listening to the audio version, we love the audio people.
10:30Truly do love and adore all our audio listeners.
10:32But this is a great time to actually check out the YouTube feed here.
10:37Or at least go check out J.J.'s Twitter feed.
10:39Because the colors here really do kind of tell the story.
10:43Where the long and short of it, Ray, is that there's not much of a correlation week one to end-of-season results.
10:49It's like .17, .24, .14, .19 going quarterback to tight end there.
10:53But I do think it's instructive that the least correlated position week one to end-of-season is the wide receiver position.
10:59The most correlated, and it gets actually pretty like we're about to .5 correlation here from week four or five on down to the rest of the season.
11:07It gets pretty close with running backs rather quickly.
11:10I think our takeaway here, Ray, is that wide receiver, it's pretty random.
11:14If not just like, listen, you got to wait a little bit until it really starts smoothing out.
11:19Because that's how this position goes. It's up, down, it's up, down, it's a roller coaster.
11:24Running back, you generally know pretty quickly who the guys are going to be, even if it still is a little bit noisy in weeks one and two.
11:33Yeah, and if you just think about the game of football, this kind of makes sense, right?
11:38You don't have three, four running backs that you're using week in and week out typically, right?
11:43Unless you're the Jags, right? They played three in the game, actually played three running backs in the game.
11:49But by and large, you got a running back and a backup running back.
11:53And then maybe the backup backup running back gets a little bit of time.
11:57But from the receiver position, I mean, hell, some teams are lining up three, four receivers constantly on the field.
12:03And then you get some of those boom performances, some of those big explosive plays from a single wide receiver or a tight end.
12:10And then you've got rookies and just even thinking about rookies, Matt, the position, not that I have any firsthand knowledge of
12:17this, but the most easily sort of translatable position from college off the street.
12:21I mean, NFL teams pick up running backs off the couch and play them the very next week.
12:27Like it's get in there, get ball, run ball.
12:30Receiver that takes some time. Tight end that takes some time.
12:33I mean, if we just look at the QB performances this week, there's some guys at the top where I'm like, well,
12:40we'll see if they're there, you know, two weeks, three weeks down the line or at the bottom.
12:45You're like, there's no way they're going to be down here.
12:48That's for me. That's why for me, for the pass catchers in general, I love looking at week one data.
12:54We're all going to do it. We're all going to have some kind of takeaway.
12:59But it really takes about a month, like about three to four weeks before I'm really firm on saying that's the one.
13:06That's the two. I project this. I predict that.
13:08I need about a month, three to four weeks.
13:11I mean, hell, Jamar Chase was in a nothing burger in week one.
13:15He's in that .09 percentile, right? Like he was at the bottom, but I don't expect him to be there at the end of the season.
13:23Yeah, we're showing JJ's follow-up post here now where it actually gets even noisier.
13:27You limit the sample size. You get more variance at the top 12 and top 24 at each position, especially, again, at receiver.
13:34Like we take until it looks like week five to even clear a .3 correlation here.
13:39And we don't get to .5 until week nine.
13:42So it takes a minute. So just on that note, when you're looking at wide receivers, like great example.
13:47I know I see that we're having a and I love this a little robust conversation in the YouTube chat, which by
13:54the way, if you're in the YouTube chat, shout out to you guys.
13:58We are live. We are truly live. We see what's going on here.
14:02You know, a little bit of a Jalen Coker conversation, of course, on the YouTube chat.
14:07The good news is like, yes, wide receiver one overall.
14:10As JJ notes, like basically what a guy does in week one explains about 4% of what he does the rest of the season.
14:17Top 48 receivers, debut, whatever. Obviously, Coker being one overall.
14:20But like ran around on 93% of the dropbacks.
14:23As you know, Ray, as you talk about all the time, comes back to that usage.
14:28That's what we really should trust and buy into.
14:31You know, wide receiver 13 in week one, despite running just 53% of the routes.
14:35You know, Antonio Williams, wide receiver 14. He ran only 29% of the routes.
14:39Like these are the things where it's like, OK, that's going to actually have to improve to be a little bit more stable.
14:46But just to hammer this home without so much stats and so much data, because you know what?
14:52Listen, this is the data dump show. But, Ray, sometimes people like anecdotes more than they like data.
14:57And I'm in on that, too. OK, I'm a data guy, but I also love a good anecdote.
15:03These were your top 12 scoring wide receivers in week one last year.
15:07I think I read this off. It's names like Marquise Brown is wide receiver 13.
15:11Calvin Austin, wide receiver 12. You know, you got a key on Coleman, wide receiver four.
15:16Meanwhile, the guys who actually finished wide, like top 12 wide receiver.
15:20T. Higgins, 57. A.J. Brown, wide receiver 99. Nico Collins, wide receiver 68.
15:24Devontae Adams, wide receiver 45. George Pickens, wide receiver 61.
15:27The aforementioned Jamar Chase last year, wide receiver 76 in week one.
15:30You flip it over to the running back position, Ray.
15:33Week one results actually pretty instructive. It goes Derrick Henry, Bijon Robinson, Javante Williams, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Travis A.
15:39Chan, Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, Brees Hall, Devon A.
15:42Chan, because what we're looking at, these are finishes, right?
15:45Like what they score. They're point per game at the end of the season.
15:49For me, this is why I am so big.
15:52When I created Trinity, it was around usage because scoring is very, very up and down.
15:57Usage, typically, it tracks pretty well. I'm not just saying like in week one, but overall.
16:02So I got a little usage stat for you for wide receivers in week one.
16:0613 wide receivers or tight ends cleared a seven, a seven score on my Trinity model.
16:11Seven of those, 13 of them cleared. From 22 to 25, 51 wide receivers and tight ends hit a seven, seven Trinity score in week one.
16:19Their positional PPR finishes from 22 through 25. 41% finishes top 12 options at their position.
16:2467% top 24 and then 80% of those players who hit that threshold in week one were top 36 finishes.
16:30That's usage. It has nothing to do with what they scored on the week, but truly looking at the Coker just have
16:37two fluke touchdowns or was he the primary option on majority of the reads?
16:41Did Deebo Samuel score and not get the use?
16:44So for me, opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. This is one of the things, Matt, where I think fantasy football in general, I don't
16:50think people understand how that works as well as people need to.
16:54Like usage sticks. That earns a coach's trust. If you can be utilized and get the trust of the coach, like the
17:01fantasy scoring comes after you're on the field running the routes.
17:04You don't score points before you're on field doing the stuff that helps you score points.
17:09So just throw in another little layer on top of that because looking at the point per game finishes, that's Z.
17:15There's a lot of stuff that happens before you get to Z.
17:19Yeah, I know it's like one of the easiest jokes to make on social media.
17:23And it is, listen, it's funny and it's a good little quip, but it's also like you're telling everybody that you're a
17:30sheep when you say something like, oh, great, you scored me a lot of points in my route participation league or, you know, my target share league.
17:38I get it. It's funny. You made a little joke, but this is the stuff that really does matter.
17:44So you said there were seven wide receivers that did this in week one.
17:48Can we ask you who the seven wide receivers were?
17:51Uh, you'll like a lot of them. Jackson Smith and Jigba, Chris Olave.
17:55Uh, who's that? Uh, Christian Watson, Justin Jefferson, Trey McBride, Isaiah likely, Amon Ross, St.
18:00Brown, Kendrick Bourne, Khalid Raymond, Dalton Kincaid, Matthew Golden.
18:02Those were the, and Zay Flowers. Those were the, those were the 10 who did it or the 13.
18:08Well, that's good. That's good information. Cause I think Christian Watson, one of those guys wide receiver two on the week, people
18:15are wondering if there is stickiness and stability to that.
18:18We will actually talk about the Packers a little bit later in the show, but you mentioned one of the names that is your second talking point.
18:26Great transition here, Ray. Uh, what is your second data point of the week?
18:30Oh, Dalton Kincaid, who, um, I left on my bench and I will not tell you all who I played over Dalton Kincaid.
18:37We'll save that. I will. Don't worry. But let's talk about the Buffalo bills, man.
18:42It feels like they've unlocked something in Dalton Kincaid and I'm jumping all, I am overreacting to the moon right here because
18:48I know Trey McBride is a dog. We've got Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland, all these guys, but I mean, it's tight into
18:55in play for this tight end weapon for the Buffalo bills.
18:58He played 73% of Buffalo's offensive snaps, ran around on almost 70% of Josh Allen dropped backs, six targets, 21.4% target share.
19:05We want to see that come up a little bit, but 20% for tight end is solid.
19:10Caught five passes, 130. He did finish with the second highest usage score of all tight ends.
19:15Only Trey McBride had a higher Trinity score. And then he lined up in the slot.
19:20He lined up out wide and in the backfield, 55% of his snaps.
19:24So that is creative usage, not in line, right?
19:27Wide backfield or in the slot, 55% of his snaps.
19:30It was, it was impressive watching him. I believe you had the bills Texans as one of your games, if I'm not mistaken, Matt.
19:37So you could probably speak to it more than me, but it did not feel, and I love DJ more, but I'm
19:44also very objective and I will not lie to the people.
19:47I mean, the touchdown was, even Josh Allen said, we never threw that in practice.
19:52Like it was, I just kind of threw it to him.
19:55I saw him there. He missed it and ran in.
19:58I mean, Dalton Kincaid was the primary out there for a lot of that game.
20:03Matt, I just want to know from the people, like I'm looking at these numbers.
20:07I'm looking at the usage. And then I'm looking at what nobody else really did anything.
20:12I know Josh Palmer scored a touchdown, but one, one catch.
20:15Keon Coleman, nothing there. Kalir Secure took a step back.
20:18Like can Dalton Kincaid push for that elite tight end finish this year, looking at what he did in week one?
20:25Yeah, I'm big time ready to overreact on Dalton Kincaid with you here because I watched the game on Sunday, every single
20:31snap for our recap show, as you mentioned, and a great, great stat here, by the way, from Datarama.
20:37Dalton Kincaid usage of week one compared 2024 to 2025.
20:40Week one, 81% of the snaps, 69% of the routes.
20:43Like, yeah, it was a massive, I mean, he led the team in snaps among the guys, like the, which is a
20:50very big departure from what we're used to with Dalton Kincaid and the out wide usage.
20:55I pointed that out. He had 113 yards when lined up out wide.
20:59And, you know, I mean, again, I watched on Sunday and then rewatching the game, reviewing it on tape, Ray.
21:05I think he might've been the best, one of the best players I watched in week one.
21:10He was incredible, super explosive as, as Hayden's pointing out here, smooth.
21:14Uh, downfield usage is excellent for him. And then you think about the structure of the bills offense, a couple of different changes there.
21:21They played a lot faster. Uh, they went from the 32nd ranked team in seconds per play in week, uh, in 2025
21:28to the eighth highest in week one. Uh, so their overall pace score was up pass rate over expected.
21:33They went from 28 to 17. I think these are structural changes that we can kind of buy into for Buffalo.
21:40That is going to be a rising tide for all boats here.
21:43Obviously that certainly includes DJ Morin and Josh Allen, but also Dalton Kincaid, who I'm with you.
21:48I think was the most impressive player on the Buffalo bills offense outside of Josh Allen on Sunday.
21:54And this is, isn't this what they drafted him to do?
21:57I know it's taken a couple of years for us to get to this point.
22:02And there's a lot of football left to be played, but I didn't get to watch it live.
22:07Like you. So I watched the condensed game and I'm like, this dude looks like he's moving different.
22:13Can we keep him healthy? And I know you watched the whole game.
22:17So the Buffalo defense also didn't feel very good either, Matt.
22:20So they could be giving him some points here.
22:23I don't want to declare him the primary, but damn it.
22:26He looked like the primary in that offense, at least in week one.
22:30And I'm very encouraged about him moving forward. And it wasn't like we were drafting him outside the top 12, but I
22:37think people were still skeptical, like, is he really going to take that next step this year?
22:42And at least what we saw limited data, limited sample size, but it was a very impressive start for Dalton Kincaid, who
22:48should be a lot higher on people's positional ranks this week.
22:52You know, and I think one thing that is important to point out here, like you said, it's, it's, it's taken a
22:58little bit of time for Dalton Kincaid. This is what it used to be for tight ends.
23:04Like they were a slow burn position, especially for a guy that's a little bit of a nebulous role player like him,
23:10where he's kind of a receiver, not really a true tight end in that typical inline fashion.
23:15And, you know, I think that that's, that's just like fair to point out with Dalton Kincaid that now he's 26 years old.
23:22It's his fourth season in the NFL. And he is a guy that's dealt with injuries and like Ray, I've joked before that.
23:29I mean, he's like, you see like pictures of him the last couple of years in shorts.
23:35I'm like, this guy's just got like no, no body mass on his legs, like no density on his legs to be like a true explosive tight end.
23:43I will say in week one, like he looked, I think I said this on the recap show, he looked bigger, more explosive.
23:50And, you know, that's just like, also now he's not dealing with this PCL injury that's dogged him over the course of his NFL career too.
23:58So good shout on Dalton Kincaid. I'm definitely buying what I saw from him.
24:02Sounds like you are too. I'll go into my second data point.
24:06If Dalton Kincaid was easily one of the most impressive tight ends that I saw on Sunday, I got to say, man,
24:12I watched this game live and I went back to watch it on a film.
24:17Even more impressed with Jacoby Brissett, who might've been a top five quarterback in the NFL on Sunday.
24:22I know that's crazy. Jacoby QB one. Kenobi is excellent work from the producers here.
24:27I've not seen that yet. That's, that's really good.
24:30Like I said, Brissett, excellent metrics in week. Number one, fifth and success rate 11th and adjusted net yards per attempt ninth
24:36in EPA per drop back among quarterbacks that had double digit pass attempts in week one.
24:41Like I I've been Cardinals curious for sure over the course of the off season and even some of the ways that
24:48they did things in week one really, I think took me by surprise.
24:52And also Ray, they, they did things a little bit differently that I thought were smart by Michael for where they kind
24:59of spread things out more than I was expecting.
25:01They got a lot of eligibles on the field.
25:04They were pretty three receiver heavy. As you mentioned, your boy, Kendrick Bourne had some really good usage there, but even just
25:11like, and I know this is, I mean, Jacoby Brissett's been in the league forever.
25:15I shouldn't be going crazy over the fact that he did this, but if you watch, uh, you know, and I posted
25:22this on my film burner account, if people want to go find that, if you watch the Marvin Harrison jr, a big
25:29tight coverage win that he had, that's a play where like Jacoby Brissett alerts that throw before the snap.
25:34And like, then at that point, like, okay, I'm throwing the go route to Marvin Harrison here because the coverage look is
25:41good, but he still has to hold the single high safety.
25:44And he's, it's one of these things where it's like, this doesn't look like it's his first read, but because he's alerted
25:51it, you know, it is his first read. And again, I know we can't show this like that's that part stinks, but just go along with it.
25:59Uh, but he, so he alerts the throw Harrison knows he's getting the ball.
26:03He's going to throw it to Harrison. Uh, but he still has to like hold the single high safety.
26:09So he looks middle of the field and then instantly comes back, throws the great pass to Marvin Harrison while getting drilled.
26:16And obviously that was like Harrison's only play of the entire game.
26:19Uh, because the rest of the time it's like, he's not taking these aggressive throws into the brackets that Harrison's got on the outside.
26:27Instead, like he's picking his spots with Kendrick Bourne.
26:29Like things are opened up for Trey McBride. He's taken those throws there.
26:33I just thought it was really good, smart quarterbacking against a defense that going back and watch was like, I actually don't
26:40think the Chargers defense played that poorly. I just think Jacoby Brissett kind of diced them up and like found the right matchup.
26:47So, uh, I know there's like a real nervousness in the fantasy community about man, what happens when Brissett gets benched for Carson Beck?
26:54I mean, it's week one, obviously not going to go crazy about that, but the guy who I watched play in week
27:01one, I'm like, you know, he's not going to be getting benched anytime soon.
27:05He says as he's about to go play Seattle, uh, in week number two.
27:09So all caveats noted. It's a tough division, right?
27:12The NFC West is a gauntlet and I'm at San Francisco's defense looks good.
27:16The Rams should get back and then you got to go to Seattle, but we're talking about this game and I, I don't think it's crazy.
27:24He was by far, but we're not talking dynasty value.
27:27We're not talking NFL career by far the best quarterback in that game by far.
27:32It wasn't even close. It looked like the Chargers defense was confused.
27:36They didn't know what to do. And when you think about the distribution of the passes that Jacoby Brissett kind of layered
27:42to the different receivers, it felt outside of McBride, really green Bay ish, right?
27:46Whoever's open. Yeah. It might be a Dobbs week.
27:49It might be a Watson week. It might be this week.
27:53And then even his comment, right? Bet you didn't have this guy on, on your fantasy roster.
27:58It, it, the identity of this team seemed to be a little different.
28:02And this was without Jeremiah Love being a full-time player.
28:05And I think he had what, two targets, two receptions, something like that.
28:09We expect a lot more from him. Brissett was sharp.
28:12And this was a guy that it didn't seem like they wanted to pay early in the offseason.
28:17Ah, we'll, we'll, we'll put Carson Beck in and he'll play eight games.
28:21The, the way that he looked in that game, Carson Beck is going to be holding the clipboard for quite a while,
28:28at least the way Brissett played in week one.
28:30He looked outstanding. Very impressed with, with, with Jacoby Brissett.
28:33Yeah. Now all the things we just talked about there and, you know, coverage ID, spreading it out, like finding the open guide.
28:40That's going to be a lot more difficult in week two against the Seahawks.
28:45So of course that, that is something to note here, especially if you're thinking about like, am I picking up Kendrick Bourne
28:51and, you know, maybe using him because I've got some receiver injuries, you know, that's tough.
28:56I don't think I'm, I probably will not have Marv or Michael Wilson as a top 30 receiver play this week.
29:03You kind of need to see a little bit more before you can go there, especially with Kendrick Bourne, you know, out as an eligible receiver.
29:10I mean, this is a team Ray that we thought might play a bunch of 13 personnel because they have previously.
29:17And that's kind of what Michael for was a part of in Los Angeles.
29:21They were 28th in percentage of heavy personnel plays.
29:24Like they played a lot more three receivers than I was expecting.
29:27So interested. And I think that probably caught the chargers off guard, to be honest with you, because that was probably not in like the preseason scouting.
29:36But again, week two, they'll go to, they play Seattle.
29:39Then they get the Niners, Giants and Lions. I wouldn't say that any of those games, Giants defense was impressive in week one.
29:46And Niners were in some ways. I wouldn't say any of those is like, oh man, stay away matchup.
29:51So I think I'm going to kind of look for what the process and the underlying play looks like for Jacoby this
29:58week before, you know, panicking over any bad stat lines in week two.
30:02Let me just say this really quickly, Matt, because I do have my updated projections rankings up for week two.
30:08Trey McBride, tight end one. No surprise there. Kendrick Bourne, wide receiver, 98.
30:12So it doesn't, it doesn't like Kendrick Bourne in this matchup versus Seattle, but we shall see.
30:17I'm, I'm, I'm rooting for Brissette. I want these guys to be good, but this is a different animal going up against the Seahawks.
30:24No question. Okay. We're going to take our first quick break.
30:28We come back. We're rolling through more stats that you need to know coming out of week one.
30:33We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
30:36Ray, let's get to your third data point coming out of week one.
30:40Yeah, I, I, I'm about to sound off because I am so disappointed with people.
30:45I'm so disappointed, Matt Harmon. And let me tell you why.
30:48Oh boy. Because it's been 10 damn years since the Kansas City Chiefs had a thousand yard rusher, right?
30:54Nine, but for illustrative purposes, we just round up to 10.
30:57And every running back that they brought through the room, Darwin Thompson, Carson Steele, Damian Harris, Damian Wilson, Damian Williams, Charkandrick West,
31:04Clyde Edwards-Elair, Isaiah Pacheco, you name them. Whoever they brought through the room, fantasy football was all over them.
31:10Sleeper, breakout alert. I want them. I want them.
31:13I want them. They go out and pay money for the Super Bowl MVP and the enthusiasm was very low.
31:19It was lukewarm, Matt Harmon. And people really weren't feeling that Ken Walker to that degree, not to that degree.
31:25So they finally go get a proper bell cow and people still a little hesitant.
31:29They started out that game last night, what? They give them six, seven straight rush attempts.
31:34You talk about looking like an absolute stud out there.
31:37Kenneth Walker, 191 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns on a mere 26 touches, right?
31:41Out gaining the entire dog on Denver offense by himself.
31:44Before garbage time, he played 77% of the snaps, 85% of the backfield opportunities, handled early down work, passing down work, short down work, red zone work.
31:52I go to work. Kenneth Walker was putting in work from the start of the game to the end of the game.
31:59Kansas City hadn't had a thousand yard rusher since 2017 in Kareem Hunt.
32:03But 7.5 yards per carry. And I know Denver missed a lot of tackles.
32:07We talked about that a while ago. But when you're talking about the missing engine and piece of this Kansas City offense,
32:14and they did this without their left tackle, Josh Simmons.
32:17They did this with a guy who had never played left tackle before.
32:21The whole offense was different, Matt. Like, it was, this wasn't the Patrick Mahomes led throw it around and get the ball
32:27downfield and we're going to be explosive. The complete and total identity of Kansas City changed.
32:32I can't wait to hear you and Nate talk about this, right?
32:36Because they look like a different team. And when I'm thinking about running backs rest of the season, you can call me over reactionary all you want.
32:44There are two guys that I would take over Kenneth Walker for the rest of the season.
32:49Two. Oh, boy. Dijon Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. Full stop.
32:52Turn the page. Move on. This is what we've been wanting for years and we got it.
32:57And people are still, I don't know. I don't know.
33:00I do know. Kenneth Walker, absolute monster. And I've been saying this all doggone offseason.
33:05Incredible, incredible performance. And this was against Denver, right?
33:08This was a real defense he played against. Talk about it, Matt.
33:11Defensive forgot to tackle on Monday night. That is for sure.
33:15But no, it's funny. You are coming in here after Hayden and I just did the nightcap recap of that game.
33:21And he's like, man, I think I'd probably take him like maybe fifth among running backs.
33:26I definitely Gibbs, Bijon. But, you know, maybe JT.
33:29I'm like, well, maybe Derrick Henry. And you're like, no, it's three.
33:32It's three, baby. That's where Kenneth Walker comes in.
33:35So you're taking it one step farther even than we are.
33:38And listen, I get it. Number one, Khalil Benson is the left tackle, the rookie undrafted free agent.
33:44Shout out to him. Like as Joe Buck and Troy Aikman talked about at the end of the game, we never talked about him.
33:51We never talked about him on Monday Night Football.
33:54And that's a good sign for a rookie left tackle in his first game going against a good defense on the other side of it.
34:01But listen. Yeah. Kenneth Walker was unbelievable. 101 to 191 yards from scrimmage were incredible.
34:06He looks fantastic. He was excellent. But Ray, I want to underscore some of those fundamental differences that you were talking about.
34:13I spent most of my day when I wasn't charting film.
34:16I was redoing. You guys remember this from if you listen to the show, you remember Nate and I did a coaching higher show.
34:23I think it was like February or whatever after the coaching cycle where I talked about static score, pace score, all these coach stats that I have.
34:31I spent today like building a whole dashboard to compare last year to this year, new results.
34:37The two teams, Ray, that changed the most from last season to this season.
34:41Number one, New York Jets. We should probably talk about that at some point.
34:45Number two was the Kansas City Chiefs here in terms of the structure of their offense and some of the tendencies that they did.
34:52They went from 31st in static score, which is a percentage of plays where are you in heavy personnel?
34:58Are you under center? Are you using play action?
35:01Are you using motion? They were not making use of a lot of that stuff last year.
35:06They were under center. They were running the football, heavy personnel packages.
35:10They went from 30th under center to 17th, 27th in motion to 14th.
35:14Play action was 26 to 17th. I mean, gap yard per carry.
35:17They went from 30th to third explosive run percentage.
35:20We talked about it. That was way up zone run yards per carry 27 to 11.
35:25I mean, they were other than their pace, which totally changed because they're playing a lot slower, you know, heavy big boy throwback football.
35:32It was a team that was looked. I mean, it was built around Kenneth Walker.
35:37Like it was built around Kenneth Walker in week one.
35:40And isn't that some of the, over the past couple of years, the conversation around Kansas City was Mahomes's inability to beat that shell coverage, right?
35:47The two highs over the top. They're not creating explosives.
35:50His numbers are going down. It really, and maybe some of this was the injury in the ACM, but it just looked like a fundamental change.
35:58And one of the things that we don't discuss a lot as a community and as a whole, Matt, is we always focus on the head coach.
36:07We focus in on the offensive coordinator, but on the football field, Matt, the position coaches matter a ton.
36:12Bringing back Eric the enemy to just solidify this run game.
36:16I don't believe this was a one week fluke.
36:18Like Kenneth Walker only touched the ball 23 times.
36:21And maybe the blessing for us in fantasy right now is the fact that Seattle didn't do it.
36:27The fact that Seattle didn't give him 30, 40 carries a game.
36:30And you're talking about a 26-year-old running back on a dope team, on a great contract.
36:35It just, sometimes the stars align. The scheme, the player, the fit.
36:39I don't want people to overthink it like they did Saquon Barkley in year one in Philadelphia.
36:44Like people overthought Derrick Henry year one in Baltimore.
36:47This is a monster season incoming. And the sweet cherry on top of this is it wasn't Brashard Smith in the receiving game.
36:54It was Kenneth Walker still getting those looks in the passing game.
36:57Yeah, the screens, things like that, which is what they talked about in the offseason.
37:02I love it, man. I'm buying everything you're selling there.
37:05I agree with you that it's like don't wait on this one.
37:08This is Saquon and Derrick Henry changing teams here, even if those guys had bigger resumes prior to this.
37:14And yeah, it's kind of nice that Kenneth Walker is still fresh.
37:18You know, he's still fresh right now, which is good because he did not get worked heavily by the Seattle Seahawks.
37:24Man, the Seahawks giving Rashid Shaheed basically the same contract that Kenneth Walker got.
37:28It is like a little, okay, we jump the shark with running backs don't matter.
37:33This is one of those situations where I get on the books, this is what it looks like, but I'm talking about on the football field.
37:41Who do I want? I think one of these guys is a better football player than the other.
37:46And I like Rashid Shaheed. I like Rashid Shaheed, but I mean, yeah, I'd rather have Kenneth Walker.
37:52Great shout out, by the way, to Eric Bien-Ami because one of the things, I mean, listen, I did not like Eric
37:58Bien-Ami's offense in Washington when he had his first crack as the play calling offense coordinator.
38:03But this offense just looks so different and you have to, one of the things that you could kind of cope with,
38:10you know, if you were wanting to be bullish about the Chiefs and I was definitely cautious about the Chiefs overall.
38:16And we're going to go into my next data point, which is going to ask you a question about the Chiefs and
38:23the other part of their offense that maybe didn't look so hot on Monday night.
38:27But one of the things you could cope with if you wanted to be optimistic about the Chiefs was, yeah, Eric Bien-Ami's
38:34coming back, which is, okay, he's like hard-nosed, he's disciplined, he's different than Matt Nagy personality-wise.
38:39But also, Ray, he spent a year in Chicago with Ben Johnson where they were a, guess what, heavy play action, under center, heavy personnel team.
38:47And, you know, look, Eric Bien-Ami is a good coach in his own right.
38:51Looks like he's bringing a lot of that stuff and kind of blending two worlds here, which is pretty cool to see.
38:58Absolutely. And just again, I'm not going to harp too much on it, but that those kind of things matter.
39:04If you watched any of the hard knock stuff, if you even listening last night and on Sunday, it's like a lot
39:11of times the OC, they're not down there talking to the players.
39:14It's the positional coaches in the locker room that you expect to get the max, you know, max out these players upside.
39:21And I think this Bien-Ami, Ken Walker pairing in Kansas City is just going to be beautiful for us this year.
39:27All right. So that's going to be beautiful, but I'm actually, we're going to talk about the Colts here for my third
39:34data point, but it will in one way ask you a question about the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers.
39:40So last week, the Colts played man coverage on 53% of opponent dropbacks in week number one, again, against Baltimore Ravens.
39:46According to fantasy points data, spoiler folks, it did not go very well, especially when Zay Flowers was in the mix.
39:52They got cooked. Okay. Zay Flowers absolutely just shredded them in man coverage.
39:56And this is the tough part of it. Just to point out how different this is, the league average man coverage rate,
40:03according to fantasy points in week one was 19%.
40:06The Bears are the only other team over 37%.
40:08They were at 44%. If you look at just second down to fourth down, their man coverage rate, the Indianapolis Colts jumps
40:15to 62%, which is again, outlier stuff in today's NFL.
40:18And like watching that defense, I was watching the Ravens offense race.
40:22Obviously I'm, I'm, I'm watching the Colts defense. I'm thinking like, man, this is stuff I was charting against in like, God,
40:28you know, 2015 or whatever, where it's, we've got one stud cornerback on the outside.
40:33Like we've got a great man coverage corner and sauce Gardner.
40:36Okay. Hell yeah. Sauce Gardner. He's going to shut guys down.
40:40Trevor is what he's a pretty good cornerback in his own road.
40:43We got two great man coverage corners. This is the problem when you want to play man coverage.
40:49Everybody else has got to play man coverage too.
40:51And it didn't work out for the other opposing, but is this easy to avoid those guys?
40:57Especially when you have a Declan Doyle moving Zay flowers all over the formation, like getting the football to him.
41:03So I think if they're going to play that out over the course of the season, Ray, I kind of think that
41:09the Colts could turn into a carnival team. If the offense could get together, you know, again, shout out to Scott Pienowski
41:16there where it's one defense just kind of getting worked.
41:19And then that offense, you know, could be really good if everything comes together.
41:23So I want to put a pin in that and talk about the, well, actually let's talk about that.
41:29What do you think about the Colts offense and my theory that this could be like a carnival team if we go down this road?
41:37I think you're spot on. I absolutely, they're absolutely going to be a carnival team and not even one of the high class carnivals.
41:44It's the one where you don't want to get on that ride.
41:48It is shaking, right? That thing is moving like this when it's coming down.
41:52But if, and I know where you're going with this because I looked at who their next couple of opponents are.
41:58I'll say you're onto something with this one. Offensively, man, I, JT looked great.
42:02JT looked great. I've got concerns with the signal caller there.
42:06And then defensively, did they try? Were they out?
42:08What were they doing versus Zay Flowers and them?
42:11And they better be glad Zay got hurt because he was probably going for two bills against that defense last Sunday.
42:18No question about that. I had a bold prediction on reception perception to show that Zay Flowers is going to lead the NFL in receiving yards this year.
42:26I'm like, man, can we knock out just a couple more catches in the second half?
42:31I'm trying to get that one right. So these are the next four.
42:35These are the next four games for the Indianapolis Colts defense coming up here.
42:39Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Washington Commanders, Pittsburgh Steelers.
42:42I throw those guys out there, one, to say, OK, can this turn into a carnival?
42:47The Colts offense is definitely going to have to look a lot better than it looked in week one against the Chiefs
42:53and the Texans for that offense to do its part.
42:56The other part of this, too, though, if you're looking for matchups to exploit, I do think you want to think about
43:03receivers who can beat man coverage and win for multiple alignments.
43:06Those are the guys who typically tear up this type of defense.
43:10And this is where I get back to the Kansas City Chiefs here, Ray, for as encouraged as I was about what
43:17I saw in the in the running game with Kenneth Walker and the remake there.
43:21I can't help but sit here and think, my God, can we not just have like one receiver to win downfield routes against play action?
43:29Like the Broncos basically just pushed the we play man coverage button against the Chiefs receivers and outside of a little pop
43:35pass where they didn't tackle Rasheed Rice. Those guys, once again, pretty much did nothing.
43:40So what is your level of concern on the Chiefs passing offense right now, even though we feel great about the rushing offense?
43:47Yeah, it was terrible. I mean, it was it was it was flat out bad.
43:52And I'm just grading and looking at the routes that were run and the usage participation.
43:56They had one guy in a what category in TR is league average.
44:00And that was Travis Kelsey. And he's right on the regression line.
44:04Rasheed Rice below league average usage, below league average usage.
44:07Now positive on the regression line because he scored a touchdown, but below league average usage.
44:12And Xavier Worthy was also below league average and below the regression line because he didn't do anything with the opportunity.
44:18They need somebody. Right. And here's the thing. I'm going to be very honest with you, man.
44:23The best play that I saw from Rasheed Rice was his blocking on Travis Kelsey's long run.
44:28I mean, great job, Rasheed. I mean, he was hauling tail down there.
44:32He looked fine. What's concerning about this is in the past, Kansas City's offense did flow through Rasheed Rice.
44:38He was an extension of the run game. Get him the ball.
44:42Get him the ball. Get him the ball. Let him let him turn into a running back after the catch.
44:48You just talked about it. I talked about it.
44:51Matt, the offense is different. If I'm Kansas City, we go back out there and we run it again.
44:56I'm going to make teams stop us. And then the limited opportunities in the receiving game, we'll see how that plays out.
45:03If I had to prioritize him today, is it crazy that I'm like, Kelsey would be the one that I want?
45:09Give me some Travis Kelsey at the tight end spot.
45:12I like Rasheed Rice. I've been in on him.
45:15But this was a shift in the identity of the Chiefs.
45:18And I do think that while the matchup is absolutely exploitable, I would not feel comfortable or confident.
45:24Plugging in Xavier Worthy next week. Sure. I'm probably going to play Rasheed Rice where I drafted him, all of that.
45:30But I don't feel good about this being this high-flying offensive of the Chiefs that we remember from years past.
45:36Yeah. No, I mean, listen, I think if we're being fair, got to point out he's coming back from an injury that he rehabbed in freaking jail.
45:45Maybe he's going to look better and more involved as we get going.
45:49But to a point about the lack of involvement, he was targeted on 6.9% of his routes in Week 1.
45:55That is the lowest of his career if you throw out the Week 4 game that he played in 2024 where he
46:01ran three routes and didn't get a target. So, again, I think we can throw that out.
46:06So, 6.9% targets per route is by far the lowest of his career.
46:10You go through all the other ones that are sub-20% because he's been like this volume monster.
46:15There's only one, and it was the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers in 2024.
46:20That's the only other game regular season or playoff from 2024 to current that he's had under 20% targets per route.
46:27This is a very different look for Rice, and he only got the little short targets there, 2.5 average depth of target for him.
46:34He has to be a guy that gets a lot of volume if he's going to play this short average depth of target role.
46:41And this was my concern for Rice beyond just any of the stuff that you see on film is that he has
46:48not shown that he can do more than this just yet.
46:51And those targets, those opportunities are going to go to Kenneth Walker in this new look offense.
46:56So, you know, I went to do my week two rankings and was shocked to see how high Rice was in consensus rankings.
47:03I don't think he's like unplayable this week, but it is a concerning matchup because we know he's not great against man coverage.
47:10But speaking of a receiver who is great against man coverage, Ray, easy transition to your fourth data point of the week.
47:17What do you got? Very good. Very good against man coverage and very good with his potential new starting quarterback.
47:23We're talking about Justin Jefferson, man. Justin Jefferson and Carson Wentz.
47:26Both of those two belong in the same pod.
47:29And Carson Wentz is kind of like a cheat code for Justin Jefferson.
47:33Not great for everybody else. But man, this is a player right here in the six games last year where Carson Wentz played with Justin Jefferson.
47:41Jefferson averaged seven catches, 95 yards a game and 10 targets.
47:44At least he recorded at least 74 yards in every game, produced eight catches, 92 yards and two touchdowns.
47:50Whenever Carson Wentz came in the game in relief, it was just I see Justin Jefferson.
47:55I'm throwing a Justin Jefferson. When I look at his week three through eight Trinity score usage, there was no player over that stretch last season.
48:03No player in the NFL who did more for their team as far as commanding opportunity, targets, air yards than Justin Jefferson.
48:09Number one usage scored player in the NFL over that time.
48:13Now, he didn't score the highest fantasy points per game.
48:16He was right around 16. But the usage was all there.
48:19And then we roll out a Sunday and you're looking at the Vikings.
48:23Addison had a couple of looks, but he was an 0 for Juwan Jennings and 0 for yes.
48:29T.J. Hawkinson scored. I believe D.J. Dallas caught a ball and Josh Oliver caught a ball.
48:33But this is Carson Wentz understands the assignment in this week for the Minnesota Vikings.
48:38You know who they get? You know who they get this week?
48:42Chicago Bears. Oh, there we go. They get the Chicago Bears who just gave up 353 to Bryce Young and gave your
48:48boy eight catches for 138 yards in two touchdowns.
48:51Like, all seriousness, Kyler Murray, get healthy. We want to see you play.
48:55Concussion's not good. But this week, I'm cool with Carson Wentz being out there.
48:59And Justin Jefferson just does everything. They move him around inside, outside.
49:03Great matchup this week. Carson Wentz cheat code for Justin Jefferson in fantasy.
49:07Yeah, you're so right to say it. Carson Wentz understands the assignment.
49:10Over the last two seasons combined, he has played 330 snaps with Carson Wentz as Justin Jefferson.
49:16He has a 31.5% target share from Carson Wentz, does Justin Jefferson.
49:19T.J. Hawkinson is at 18%. Jordan Addison is at 17.7%.
49:22Now, he does get some explosive opportunities. He's got a 13.5 air yards per target mark.
49:27T.J. Hawkinson, by the way, 4.58. Not a lot of downfield stuff there for old T.J.
49:32Hawkinson when Carson Wentz is in the mix here.
49:35But yeah, it's like Jefferson gets that perfect usage that you're talking about where he gets the layups, but he also gets the downfield opportunities for Carson Wentz.
49:43You can't ask much more than that. This is a limited menu for old Carson at this point in his career, but
49:50this is what we care about most. It's like, can Justin Jefferson get the football?
49:54Can we push it to him? He does. So I think if you drafted Justin Jefferson, I honestly think you're totally fine
50:01as long as Carson Wentz is in there. I do want to ask you about Jordan Addison, though.
50:06What do you do with a guy like this who, you know, he did total zero spot.
50:12It's a great matchup, though. Do you feel like, obviously, with the target share numbers I throw out there, it's not a
50:18lot of high volume coming his way when Carson Wentz is under center.
50:22But what do you do with this matchup versus usage kind of conundrum here for Jordan Addison?
50:27Yeah, so I'm looking at it right now, and his usage was still pretty good over that week three through eight stretch with Carson Wentz last year.
50:36Here's what I think. And again, this is just football ball talk.
50:39When the plan gets disrupted that fast, I don't think people understand, like, real football is not mad.
50:45You don't just sub in the next quarterback and then everything stays the same.
50:49The whole game plan, everything that they've done for the last three, four weeks was built around Kyler Murray versus the Green Bay Packers.
50:56So putting Carson Wentz in off the bench, the plan is get the ball to Justin Jefferson.
51:01We're trying to get a win. You throw to him.
51:04I do think that with a week of preparation, some more game plan, switching the entire play sheet to the things that
51:11Carson Wentz can do well, that Addison can find more success.
51:14Enough to where I feel confident playing him versus Chicago?
51:17Probably not. I would look for some other options.
51:20But again, the matchup, this team just gave up 350 passing yards to Bryce Young, and he's got the talent to succeed.
51:27I don't want people to be like, auto start Jordan Addison this week.
51:31He probably belongs on the bench to see how things play out.
51:34But I see a little light at the end of the tunnel.
51:38There's a little light at the end of the Addison tunnel.
51:41Yeah, I've just always felt with Addison that people don't understand that he's a pretty volatile player because he's a good to
51:48fine NFL route runner and separator that is used as a pure downfield threat.
51:52And I think that's going to lead you to real big spike weeks.
51:56And like against the Chicago Bears, if you're chasing spike weeks, we just saw it last week.
52:01This can go pretty good for you. But you're going to have to hope that he hits on one to two big
52:08plays to really make it in your lineup. I'm struggling with what to do with him in early week two rankings.
52:14I have a league where I have Jordan Addison, and it was like a last minute flex call between him and Jalen Coker.
52:21Thank God I chose Jalen Coker. You couldn't have quite got more polar opposites than that one right there.
52:27So really interesting usage notes on Jordan Addison. I'll throw out some usage notes for the Tampa Buccaneers, Ray.
52:33We talked about this a little bit on the recap, but went back to watch this offense and felt pretty good about what I saw.
52:40The Bucs, interesting though, they led the NFL in 11 personnel usage, 82.7%.
52:44Of their plays came out of 11 personnel. They were the only team over 76%.
52:49So, I mean, pretty fascinating that the rest of the NFL is moving to all these heavy personnel looks.
52:55The Bucs are going the opposite direction. It makes sense given that they have a plethora of wide receivers and they kind
53:01of have two guys in Chris Godwin and Emeka Ibuka who can play slot Z, move around.
53:06You know, I think they kind of have a guy.
53:10Again, Chris Godwin almost at this point is a little bit like a pseudo move tight end.
53:15With what he's doing in the NFL. And, you know, we'll see how that goes from a fantasy standpoint.
53:20But he's such a good blocker, tough and everything.
53:23I think they can kind of do a little bit of 11 and a half personnel, like old school Ram style.
53:30They're also only one of two teams with a 50% rate of motion at the snap.
53:3450% or greater rate of motion at the snap.
53:37So, this is what they looked like out of three plus receivers.
53:41I posted this on Sunday. Let's throw this back up here just to look at the role for these guys when they
53:47get into 11, which is going to be their primary passing package here.
53:51Chris Godwin led the way with a 97% route participation.
53:54Emeka Ibuka, 94%. Great role for him. He's about 29% snaps in the slot.
53:59We love to see that. Godwin's the full-time slot guy.
54:02But when watching Ibuka in week one, Ray, I mean, he's constantly off the ball in motion.
54:07He did not play, did not get a ton of, actually, I don't think he saw like a catch in the second
54:13half of this game, which was weird. But definitely was a guy that got some pretty good pre-snap usage.
54:19Ted Hurst, pure sacrificial X. 11% targets per route.
54:22That's going to be what he is. Cade Otten, the inline tight end, 0.5 yards per route.
54:27He's not going to catch a lot of passes.
54:30Bucky Irving's the guy that got probably the best usage on the team in week one.
54:35Not just as a rusher, but 59% route participation.
54:3726% targets per route out of 11 personnel. I feel like, Ray, this is a well-designed offense to pull some interesting schematic tweaks.
54:44I think the protection rules kind of stunk in week one.
54:48So that's at least a little bit on my radar that they allowed too much pressure against a Bengals defense.
54:54That might be the thing that holds them back because the players are good.
54:58But hopefully that can coalesce around Zach Robinson and the boys as we go here.
55:03But otherwise, I felt pretty good about what I saw from a role and usage standpoint out of this Bucs offense.
55:09What do you feel about this unit coming out of week one?
55:13Yeah, it felt like they're still more upside inside of the offense because they really did not run the ball.
55:19Bucky looked great. Like that was one of my guys.
55:22I'm like, I'm in on Bucky Irving this year.
55:24I thought he looked great, but it wasn't like they you watched it.
55:28The Bucs were a little wonky. Like it was just it was.
55:32Yeah. Oh, it was kind of a wild. You know what I'm saying?
55:36Dude, they were definitely they were definitely a mess.
55:39And I think that some of this like motion stuff I'm talking about, it's good in the long run if they want to keep pushing that button.
55:47But they were very disorganized with it at the end in this particular game.
55:51And I thought obviously Baker three fumbles. Bucky had a fumble like the turnovers were bad.
55:56It was sloppy. It was sloppy. And yet they still put up close to 30 points in this one.
56:02I thought that, like you said, I thought Godwin would be a little more involved.
56:06But maybe that's just where he is at this stage of his career and how they want to deploy him.
56:12I've got I'm so tired of talking about Ibuka's first half or second half.
56:17Doesn't matter if it's a full season or a regular game.
56:20I need him to play good for 60 minutes all the way through so we can move past this.
56:26But I do think there is some more upside inside of this offense.
56:30And for anybody out there panicking about Ted Hurst, like this was always going to be the role for him.
56:36He was going to be truly like we could that the term really does apply.
56:40The sacrificial X in this offense and Kate Otten.
56:43He's like out there doing stuff, but he's just he's just out there.
56:47Harmon, he's just he's fine. He's like a fine tight end.
56:50He's OK. I like the guys that we want to be good for fantasy.
56:54I think they will ultimately they'll end up being exactly what we want.
56:58Bucky Irving and Mekka Ibuka. And I do think Chris Gradwin as we go through a little bit more, maybe have some
57:05some bigger games than we saw on Sunday. Yeah, the one thing that surprised me is there was it felt like there
57:12was a lot of more Tez Johnson that I thought was coming in this game.
57:16He only played on 17 percent of the routes, but he had one target.
57:20He dropped it like there was a lot of Tez in this game.
57:24I think I think we'll see. But we'll see, buddy.
57:27But yeah, you're right about Ted Hurst. If you're invested in Ted Hurst and Dynasty, you just got to be feeling good
57:34that they trust him in week one to be on the football field.
57:38And then like coming from freaking Georgia State, Hugh Jackson's offense, like let's let this guy grow and develop.
57:44Don't worry about that. Chris Godwin, though, is an interesting one to talk about because I did feel really good about him going into week one.
57:52Did not have that big of a game for catches, 40 yards.
57:55I thought this was the right matchup for him.
57:58And again, I think just was a little bit of a victim of just how disorganized this Bucs offense.
58:04He had I don't know if you saw this, but he had an awesome play where he just stiff armed a defender into the dirt.
58:11But then that defender jumped right back up and popped him right back.
58:15It was a very just cool football play. But Godwin averaged exactly 0.3 air yards per target in week one.
58:21That is, like I said, a little bit move tight end dish at this point in his career.
58:27Godwin move tight end ask. Yeah, not not great, Bob.
58:30Not great. Not great. OK, so that's a veteran that maybe didn't have the best time in the world in week one.
58:37You've actually, Ray, for your fifth data point, got a couple of veterans who did show out pretty well.
58:42Yeah, man, they say I've heard this. I've heard this expression or this this the older the berry, the sweeter the juice.
58:49I don't know anything. I don't know anything about that, Matt Harmon.
58:53But that's that's what I've heard. And we've got some old berries in the NFL that I don't think that's true.
58:59I don't I don't. Let me just say real quick.
59:02I don't think that's true. And the state of produce right now in is on my radar.
59:07OK, on my radar. Yeah, I feel you. OK, well, let's talk about the old players that did look good.
59:13And I just because we didn't get a chance to talk about this.
59:17The this team, the 49ers and Rams, they played on Thursday.
59:21We do the data dump on Tuesdays and we didn't even discuss this game on Sunday Night Recap show.
59:26But you see on the screen, Stephon Diggs, Mike Evans, Debo Samuel.
59:30And yes, Kendrick Bourne on the list. This is kind of like a star and watch.
59:35But these older veteran players that I think people, especially in the case of Mike Evans and Debo Samuel, Stephon Diggs on the screen.
59:42Now, I don't think anybody thought that they would be as good as they were in week one.
59:47I know Diggs, four for 55, but the usage compared to everybody else, not named Antonio Williams, especially when Chigo Conqua went out.
59:54Outstanding. I mean, if you're telling me right now that Diggs is getting seven to nine targets a week, he's in my lineup every single week.
60:02Mike Evans, for all the players that we talked about, could be hurt, injured and not make it through.
60:08The two left standing were Mike Evans and Debo Samuel.
60:11And I'm watching them play. I'm watching Shanahan call plays.
60:14Matt, this is why the 49ers offense is awesome.
60:17This is why you always just imagine what if George Kittle had 140 target season?
60:21How good could they be? Brock Purdy, 73% completion percentage in week one.
60:25Debo was like, I thought he was going to be a kick returner.
60:29No, they're using him. Seven targets for Debo Samuel.
60:32Got to carry out of the backfield. I remember coming on here saying, like, I really kind of like him as a late veteran guy.
60:40Like, I'm looking at these older players and I didn't include the Derrick Henrys and the David Montgomerys, but this is why, like, veterans matter in the NFL.
60:48And I know we want to propel every rookie, whether that be Makai Lemon over Dontabian Wicks.
60:53I know we want to do this stuff every year, but unless you're the Miami Dolphins where you literally have nobody else
61:00to throw to, like, these veterans are going to provide value for us.
61:04And I just want pieces of good offenses. How long Debo's going to stay healthy for?
61:09How long is Mike's hamstrings going to stay on the bone?
61:12I don't know, but as long as it is right now in this upcoming week, I want these guys, Matt.
61:18Yeah, I'm with you. I mean, look, September is the time for these veteran players, especially Debo Samuel.
61:24Like, he did the same thing last year where he kind of got off to a strong start and then petered out
61:30as the year went on, you know, with the Washington commanders.
61:34So totally get that. And look, yeah, Mike Evans is simple.
61:37As long as he is out there and especially if we've got, like, clean practice reports, just plug him into your lineup
61:44because we don't know how long Mike is going to be around for.
61:48If he's around for right now, we're trying to play him as much as we possibly can.
61:53They have a great matchup this week with the Miami Dolphins.
61:56Mike Evans, for me, I think will be I'm looking at my week one rankings right now.
62:01He'll be like a friend. He'll be like a fringe top 15 receiver, which means, like, you're probably putting him in your
62:08lineup unless you draft unless you draft really well, which, you know, you might have.
62:12OK, but I'm still definitely going to have him as a top 20 receiver for sure.
62:17So those two guys. And yeah, Debo, I think, is a nice little insurance policy for now, especially again, I think in this matchup.
62:24Good. Like, he's definitely on the starting radar. I want to ask you about digs because, man, I thought digs looked awesome in week one.
62:32I also think and I know I said earlier that he's a guy that you might not be able to trust because the route percentage is so low.
62:41I actually Antonio Williams really good in week one.
62:43Like, he's a guy they need to get. He looked his film was awesome.
62:48Really good explosive player. He's a guy that's better.
62:50Beat man coverage probably better than I thought right away against a good defense and everything.
62:55So, like, good route runner. The whole deal. We'll see how long he can kind of be left on.
63:01Yeah, he was not completely uninvolved, but 29 percent of the routes.
63:04Like, we'll see how long that holds for now, though.
63:08Digs is out there. He's the number two across from Terry McLaurin.
63:11Matchups the next four week. Cowboys, Seahawks, Colts. Talk about that man coverage defense.
63:15Digs definitely still knows how to be man coverage.
63:18Saw that in week one. New York Giants. I think at least three of those games, Seahawks probably the one that stands out.
63:25I think Digs is on the wide receiver three radar in that slate.
63:29Absolutely. I am. Don't even get me started on Dallas.
63:32I'm firing them up with full confidence against those Dallas Cowboys.
63:35I mean, Seattle's going to be a tough draw.
63:38But the other two, you said the Colts and I forgot who the last team you said.
63:43Giants. Giants. I mean, you watched it like me.
63:46He did not look like a 30 plus year old wide receiver out there.
63:50I mean, he looked good. I mean, boneheaded penalty at the end.
63:54But other than that, like his play on the field, I think he and Williams actually in a strange way compliment each other.
64:01Like you could play both of those guys at the same time.
64:05They really can. They get both of those guys on the field at the same time.
64:09It's a little concerning for Terry McLaurin. I know he was on the panic meter.
64:14Where are you at with Terry? Some panic. Some panic.
64:17Not total, not coping. I've got a little panic on McLaurin.
64:20I want to give it another week. But Diggs look great.
64:24And Antonio Williams look good too. So just tying it back up.
64:27Like I think you nailed it. You want, if you're going to play old guys, do it early.
64:33Don't pick up Stefan Diggs on waivers and be like, I'm going to wait a few more weeks to see how it looks.
64:40Like you play these guys right now. So if something does happen, you're like, at least I got the usage and the points.
64:47Yeah, some of these matchups, like it will be pretty good for Terry.
64:51I think week two Cowboys, that's maybe the one that's going to be tough to trust him after obviously week one dud.
64:57But we've seen Terry do this before. He's another guy that, and this is the part, the thing that I think has
65:04fundamentally changed for Terry, where when David Blau first gets hired, he says, we're going to get 10 targets a game to Terry McLaurin.
65:11Which is, I said, all offseason did not mean he was literally going to get 170 targets this season, but that they
65:18were going to move him around and all that.
65:21And he did play over 30% of his snaps in the slot, like a little bit more dynamic than what we usually saw with Cliff Kingsbury.
65:28But the problem is like Diggs is now kind of a slot Z receiver.
65:33Antonio Williams is definitely like a slot Z receiver.
65:35So it just leaves Terry McLaurin a little, and especially because like the guy who was the sacrificial player in week one
65:42was Deami Brown, which is that's what you want to do with Deami Brown.
65:46Like wind sprint, free things up for everybody else.
65:49But if Brown's role is going to get diminished to get the rookie Williams on the field, it does kind of lead
65:56to more lower percentage targets for Terry on the boundary.
65:59I've got some panic because of that right there.
66:02I've got some panic for Terry McLaurin for sure.
66:04All right. My fifth data point this week is about the Green Bay Packers.
66:08And, you know, it's funny, Ray. I think we talked about the Chiefs earlier and how they were the team that they
66:15said they were going to be more physical ground, ground and pound the whole deal.
66:20The Packers kind of were the team that there was some hints that they would be in week one where their pace score.
66:27Again, when I calculate pace score, I'm mixing in seconds per play, pass rate over expectation, plays per game, all of the pace, but no huddle percentage.
66:35All the pace based stats. Those are all way up.
66:38So last year in this metric, they were a bottom 10 team.
66:42They were 25th week one. They were second behind only the New Orleans Saints, who are the notorious paints pace Kings in the NFL.
66:49You know, some of this certainly can be game script oriented, but pass rate over expected accounts for game scripts and accounts for situation.
66:56They were 24th last year in pass rate over expected.
66:59They were sixth in week one seconds per play.
67:02They went from 22nd to second plays per game.
67:0526 to eight, no huddle percentage. 14th to fourth.
67:07They went from 8.7 percent. No huddle percentage to 14.9 percent.
67:11And again, some of this can be because they got themselves into a weird game script, like down in the fourth quarter, the whole deal.
67:18But I still think you saw a team that wants to play faster, wants to run more plays overall, which is really
67:25good news for guys like Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, who you mentioned at the top, who had a great score in Trinity.
67:32Like, I think both of these guys are, you know, I mean, it'd be tough to buy Christian Watson after a massive
67:38week one, but I think there's some sustainability there.
67:41And for Golden, I want to talk more about him as well.
67:45But yeah, I think it's good news for both these guys.
67:48Well, yeah, you mentioned Golden. You mentioned love. You mentioned the play caller.
67:52You mentioned Christian Watson. Who didn't we talk about?
67:55The doggone running backs. They can't run the ball.
67:57They cannot run the football. And I think this is there were some rumblings right before we got to week one that
68:04Jordan Love is going to have to play like an MVP.
68:07It's time for him to earn his keep, show that he's a, you know, one of the upper echelon type quarterbacks.
68:14And I mean, I'm looking at just the box score.
68:17Green Bay was up until until they got to the fourth quarter.
68:20Right. And they still kept their foot on the gas, which has to make you feel a lot better about the receivers.
68:27Christian Watson, Golden. We all know Reed is who he is.
68:30I know. Matt, it's the inability for them to run the ball.
68:34And then inside of that passing attack, Tucker Craft was like a part-time player.
68:38He was not a full-time player. So wait until he gets up to speed a little bit more.
68:44Like, I can definitely see them throwing, throwing, throwing.
68:46I'm almost positive that Jordan Love's 42 pass attempts in this game, fifth highest pass attempt total of his career, including playoffs.
68:53Wow. So, like, the whole philosophy looks like it's changed a little bit in Green Bay.
68:58Yeah. And again, this is something we theorized about this offseason kind of saw it play out here in week one, man, which is really good to see.
69:06Just in terms of, yeah, the Jaden Reed stuff.
69:09Look, I'm a Jaden Reed fan. I still really like him as a player.
69:13It's just tough when you run 24% of the routes when there are two or fewer receivers on the field and there
69:20was only nine such snaps for Jaden Reed. This, it's just going to be tough.
69:25Like, he ran four routes out of two or fewer receiver sets, which is great.
69:29That's actually more than usual, but it's still not enough.
69:32Like, so it's just tough for Reed right now.
69:35I feel like I might have to capitulate to Josh on the Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed debate.
69:40And I still like Golden prior to the draft.
69:43Like, I had him ahead of ADP, but I was still thinking Reed might outscore him from a fantasy standpoint.
69:49Going to be tough. And I say that because, Ray, like, Matthew Golden I thought looked really nice in week one.
69:55I thought his film was good. He had a clear-cut X receiver role.
69:59He found some big plays down. If it wasn't perfect, like, there's some ways he can still continue to get better.
70:05But I thought he looked notably more faster and confident playing in the role they had him in, which was this vertical unfurl his routes type of role.
70:14Still had two drops. Like, we got to clean that up.
70:17But overall, I thought this was a nice showing for Matthew Golden, who you mentioned.
70:22Like, the Trinity score was really good as well.
70:25Really good. Top 10 usage score on the week.
70:27I think you got to feel it. I mean, both the two Packers inside the top 10 and Tucker Craft was right outside for the overall tie-in grouping.
70:36Like, he'll get there. Like, you've got to be encouraged.
70:39As long as Jacobs is out, I just – I'm a big – I'm a USC guy.
70:44I followed Marshawn Lloyd through his time at University of South Carolina, USC.
70:48He's not Jacobs. He's not Jacobs. And Chris Brooks damn sure ain't Jacobs.
70:52So they're not going to be able to be really effective.
70:55And I know you saw it watching the game.
70:58That interior offensive line was pretty bad. Oh, my God.
71:01It was pretty bad, Matt. Their guards are, like, unplayable right now, which is really, really tough.
71:06That being said, the silver lining here for the Packers is – we knew it was going to be – Nate and I talked about this.
71:14Like, with the Packers and the Vikings, it's always very volatile, right?
71:18Like, that's typically how it goes for Jordan Love in those games.
71:21But – and it was. He almost scored 19 – or he almost scored 20 fantasy points.
71:26As you mentioned, he threw a lot of passes.
71:29That was great to see. The next four games for the Green Bay Packers.
71:33Jets, Falcons, Bucs, Bears. I'm thinking a lot of those spots are going to be a little bit cleaner for Jordan Love
71:40and company than what they saw against Brian Flores on Sunday.
71:43That's juicy. I'm smiling. I like those next four for Watson, for Golden, for Kraft.
71:48And I will say for Reed as well. He's still out there.
71:52He'll get his at some point. Yeah, I hope that he just plays more.
71:56I mean, he's just got to play more in week one.
71:59So right now, in terms of my rankings, I'm going to have Christian Watson pretty close to definitely like a top 15 guy.
72:06You know, mentioned Mike Evans. Like, he'll be kind of flirting with that same area against the Jets.
72:12And then Matthew Golden will definitely be in the wide receiver three range.
72:16Twelve targets in week one. You know, Jory Epstein on our show said that she went to Packers camp and talked to
72:22Jordan Love about Matthew Golden and asked, like, are you trying to get him involved?
72:27He said, no, I'm throwing him the football out because, like, that's where my reads are taking me because of the separation that he's getting.
72:34So that was a good tip by Jory on this show.
72:38And, yeah, big reason I had Matthew Golden about 11 spots ahead of ADP was a good pick this year in fantasy.
72:44Even if you're like me and thought, I'm kind of a centrist after seeing his week one film.
72:50I'm feeling a lot better about him. Maybe ready to reach across the aisle.
72:54Be more of the polar extremes on Matthew Golden after seeing the week one film.
72:59Probably not. I need to see a little bit more.
73:02But, I mean, for fantasy, that's a pretty good role right there.
73:05All right. We're going to take our last break of the show.
73:09When we come back, we'll see. Unless maybe Ray bails on the show.
73:13We'll see. Hopefully not because we've got to talk about the Yahoo Fantasy.
73:17My Wi-Fi's messing up. My Wi-Fi's messing up. Okay.
73:19No, your Wi-Fi. Call whatever your provider is and tell them to lock in, Ray, because we're going to take a break.
73:26And when we come back, we're going to be talking about the Yahoo Fantasy League.
73:31You guys have been asking for it. We're going to talk about it.
73:35We're going to do a little weekly recap. We'll get into that right after this.
73:39All right. We're back. And you all have the results of your fantasy league.
73:43Now it's time for us to talk about the results of our fantasy league.
73:48That's right. The Yahoo Fantasy League recap. Let's get into it here.
73:51Let's start off with the matchup of the week.
73:54And that's right. One of us here on this show goes by the name Matthew Harmon.
73:59Defeated another man, Ray Garvin, whose bench overperforms the starters.
74:02Oh, what an embarrassing performance here by Ray Garvin.
74:05119.46 points for me. Not enough points for Ray Garvin, who left a ton of points on his bench.
74:10Jackson Dart. Oh, he was awesome against. Oh, I don't know.
74:14Who did he play? Who did he play in week one?
74:17Oh, yeah, that's right. It was the Dallas Cowboys.
74:20He played the Dallas Cowboys in week one. And Dalton Kincaid.
74:23I heard a certain analyst saying like, oh, man, Dalton Kincaid.
74:26All the snaps he was playing. He was looking so good in week number one.
74:31Said analyst left him on his bench. Jackson Dart.
74:34Dalton Kincaid provided for over 41 points on Ray Garvin's bench.
74:37Meanwhile, he started Jared Goff and Jake Ferguson, who got him just over 17 points.
74:42Also started the Titans defense, which proved to be quite literally a zero.
74:46Oh, by the way, Matthew Golden also on his bench outscored Ray's top two wide receivers.
74:50And you know what? I was basically cared by Derrick Henry and the Steelers defense, which, to be honest, is the dream of boomers everywhere.
74:58So Matthew Boomermon outscores Ray Garvin. Maybe not the bench, though, Ray.
75:02Explain yourself. Why do you leave all your points on your bench?
75:05You know you're supposed to start the good players, right?
75:08Listen, this was a case of getting too cute.
75:11I was very nervous about Houston's defense. I don't want to play Dalton Kincaid.
75:15The Dallas Cowboys have an easy matchup. Jake Ferg should be great.
75:19Jared Goff and then they put up 40 points.
75:22How do you not outscore Jackson? Listen, mistakes were made, right?
75:25I did not draft the defense during the expert draft on the house stream defense.
75:30It's the Jets. Unfortunately for me, the Titans are infinitely worse than the Jets.
75:34Mistakes were made. Victory lap. Have your fun today, Matt Harmon.
75:37We will make adjustments. It's week one. Variance. Remember that tweet you pulled up from J.J.
75:42Zachary? I'm not worried about you in week one.
75:45Go to the next team, man. Okay, sure. Well, if you want to make yourself feel better, maybe you can put that little cutesy Cowboys helmet back on.
75:53Smack yourself on the head again after your boys got smacked by Jackson Dart, who you left on your bench.
75:59You started Jake. I mean, Jake Ferguson. Have some self-respect, Ray.
76:03Come on. Another person who might need to have a little look in the mirror moment is Eric Edholm, who was destroyed
76:09with an easy win from Scott Pienowski here. 139 points for Scott.
76:13Sub 96 for Eric Edholm, who honestly, serious trouble for Eric's wide receiver core.
76:17Jordan Addison puts up the goose egg. A.J. Brown gets hurt.
76:20Meanwhile, Scott Pienowski's boomer squad of David Montgomery leads him to victory there.
76:24He also had Amon Ra and Zay Flowers. And Scott had a great draft, let's be honest here.
76:30Yeah, he was the draft grinch, destroying everybody's picks from start to finish.
76:34But I'm going to give Eric a little pass.
76:36He had some difficulties getting in. I'm just going to say he wasn't all the way right coming in.
76:42But I trust that Eric's going to hit the waiver wire.
76:46He's going to make some adjustments. A 95-point total, he'll get that up, man.
76:50We can't be sub-triple digits here around the expert, Lou.
76:53We can't be sub-triple digits. He'll get it together, but good for Scott in week one.
76:58Our boy Chris Allen had himself a nice week and a great victory lap in week one as he reposted the fact
77:04that he got a D in the Yahoo draft grades.
77:07Well, the draft grades are the one who had the toughest week one because Chris had an excellent showing against Joel.
77:14Joel didn't do too bad. 133 points. I don't want to hear any.
77:18We got to get a median scoring in here.
77:20No, we're playing head-to-head like real men, okay? We're playing head-to-head like real men.
77:25I actually don't care. Median bros, leave me alone.
77:27I like the median too. Everybody, I'm a live and let live guy.
77:31But in this moment, the guy that was living was Chris Allen.
77:35156 points. Chris dominated. He reposted his draft grade of the D.
77:39Well, guess what? Lamar Jackson, DeAndre Swift, and Justin Jefferson dominated in week one for Chris.
77:43You know, this is tough, man. If you told Joel the morning on Sunday that he'd get almost 70 combined points out
77:50of Jameer Gibbs and Kayla Williams, Joel's like, I'm cakewalking to a victory.
77:54But shout out to Chris Allen who feels like he is letting people know about the bad draft grade and letting people
78:01know that I dropped 156 on y'all's heads in week one.
78:04Oh, DeAndre Swift was such a good pick by Chris Allen.
78:07Next matchup here, Eric Froton. The Froton torpedoes shooting blanks against Max in week one.
78:12Not great for Froton. I mean, listen, everybody's going to have bad weeks.
78:16We've all been there. But it did not go well for Eric in week one.
78:20He started Matthew Stafford, Amarian Hampton, Teddero McMillan, Rasheed Rice, Kyle Pitts.
78:24You're thinking like, yeah, you know what? Pretty good team there.
78:27They combined. They combined for 30 fantasy points in week one.
78:31He had some goose eggs. He had some duds.
78:33Pretty brutal stuff here for Eric Froton. But listen, listen, Eric, you bounce back, okay?
78:38Maybe he's tanking for Jeremiah Smith in the dynasty draft.
78:41He's wearing dynasty right now. He thought this was dynasty.
78:44He wants that one-on-one for Jeremiah Smith. But shout out to Max because I don't know if any analyst took more heat
78:51after the draft than Max to get a victory, right?
78:54Something that I wasn't able to do. Good for him.
78:57But Eric, come on, man. Like, Coker? Left Coker on the bench?
79:00Oh, that was Joel. No, Joel left. Oh, that was Joel.
79:04Joel left him on the bench, yeah. Eric left Jeremiah Smith in college.
79:08He didn't have Smith and Tony. That's what... So what we're saying is there's really no excuse.
79:13Yeah, you got to get Tony out there. No excuses.
79:16Come on, Eric. Come on. I mean, like I said, it's not like a good team on paper.
79:21Yeah, shout out to Max, who definitely took some heat in the draft room.
79:26He would have an awesome team if this was super flex, okay?
79:29Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, that would have been pretty cool, buddy, but this is a one quarterback league.
79:35So, I don't know. We'll see. It is funny, though, with the Max stuff, Ray, where during the draft, you're like, you
79:42can wait on quarterback, and then Josh Allen goes out there and drops a hammer in week one.
79:47You're like, well, it's kind of nice to actually just score fantasy points every now and again.
79:53Isn't that what you keep saying about running backs?
79:55Like, I don't want to hear about value. Sometimes just having the best player on the field is the best move, and Josh Allen, my goodness.
80:03Yeah, very good. Yeah, Josh Allen dropping a cool 35.6 points.
80:07Pretty impressive stuff there for Max. Not sure who he started at receiver, though.
80:11Still wondering what those receivers are going to look like over the course of the year.
80:16Okay. Hayden's August turtlenecks. No match. No match for Dan Titus.
80:19Dan was taken down. Yeah, not great here. Dan, 95.7 points.
80:22Hayden, 150.3 points. Hayden's team looking pretty dang good after week one.
80:26Biggest blowout of week one. Stellar showing from Jackson Smith and Jigba.
80:30Chuba Hubbard and Isaiah likely. Unfortunately, Dan got Jamar chased.
80:33He was feeling pretty good about that Jamar Chase pick.
80:36You know, especially when Boone took Jonathan Taylor. He's like, oh boy, Jamar Chase falls to me.
80:41Well, his team falls in week one to Hayden in brutal fashion.
80:44Yeah, I feel like Dan could have had another 20 points, right?
80:48Like, he still wasn't beating the turtleneck that is Hayden Winks.
80:51I mean, 150.26. But it would have been a lot better than this 95-point performance.
80:56But again, I mean, the moment that Winks put that turtleneck on, it should have increased his odds to win.
81:02Like, you got to have a certain amount of confidence and swag to rock the turtleneck.
81:07Like, 150 points, I'd be feeling pretty doggone confident if I was Winks following week one.
81:12Brutal stuff here. All right, our final game to recap here is the weirdest one, certainly in this league.
81:17Maybe in any league in week number one. Boone and Josh Norris tied.
81:21Yeah, we got a yellow on the screen here.
81:24120.72 points for Boone. 120.72 points for Josh Norris.
81:27What in the world is going on here? Are we going to get a stat correction at some point?
81:33And this was crazy, too, because honestly a lot to unpack here on this one.
81:37Boone had a 98% chance of winning heading into Monday Night Football despite getting a goose egg from Colson Loveland and duds
81:44from Kenny Gainwell, Marshawn Lloyd, and Drake London. How in the world did that happen?
81:48Josh, oh, he's like, I need the Monday Night Miracle.
81:51I need Kenneth Walker. His boy, Kenneth Walker, he needed 32.61 points just to beat Justin Boone.
81:57Kenneth Walker got 32.60. A truly incredible Monday Night Miracle for us, barring any late stat corrections or something like that, because my God, a tie?
82:04How can we have a tie in week one?
82:07What is the point, the .61, what's that, one yard?
82:10Like, he just needed, like, one yard would have done it.
82:14One additional yard would have had, would have gotten him the win there.
82:17I mean, this is, this is crazy. To tie week one, I don't have anything to say, but I'm reading the notes on here.
82:25No one feels good, right? No one feels good.
82:27Somebody deserved to win this matchup, but I'll take it, because I'm sitting in ninth place, so I don't need any of them to win nor lose, right?
82:36I needed someone to lose, but this is wild.
82:39Like, ties in fantasy, Matt, honest opinion, Matt. Ties in fantasy football, should they be banned?
82:44How should you resolve a tie in fantasy football?
82:46I mean, how, what are you going to, how can you ban it?
82:50What do they have to do, like, fight in the street?
82:54I don't know. I don't know what you got to do.
82:57You take, what do you, maybe it's what, it's what, who wants that median scoring, Joel?
83:02Maybe that's what it is. You just have the median scoring in there.
83:06But ties, man, can't tie in fantasy. Somebody's got to win.
83:09Somebody's got to win. I don't know, bro. What do you want?
83:13I mean, how could they do the median? They scored the same exact points.
83:17It's got the same point total. That doesn't even help them.
83:20I guess they'll have to fight. Nothing helps. I guess they'll have to, yeah, they'll have to fight in real life.
83:27We'll see. Okay, so right now the standings are Chris Allen.
83:30We got Hayden Winks. We got Scott Pienowski. I'm in fourth.
83:33The onesies. Yeah, I love that. Max's team is fifth.
83:36Boone is sixth. Josh Norris is seventh. I have no idea why Josh is seventh and Boone is sixth, but, you know, I'll take it.
83:44Good players and good people is Joel's team name.
83:47I didn't change my team name from the default because I'm a total loser.
83:51You're ninth. Then we've got Eric Edholm, tenth. And then we've got Dan Titus, eleventh, and Eric Froton, twelfth.
83:57Looking ahead to week two here, tough spot for Eric's torpedoes, Tito's who's got Hayden.
84:01I mean, my God, Hayden's, he's got Hayden's team.
84:04That's not ideal. That's not ideal for Eric's bounce back.
84:07So there's that. No, no, no, no, no. He's getting the one-on-one.
84:11You know what Eric wants. He wants the one-on-one.
84:13I don't care that it's redraft. He just wants to say, I've secured Jeremiah Smith for next year.
84:19That's what he's going for. Hard to argue with him.
84:22I hear he's a good receiver. We'll see. Okay, Josh Norris tries to not tie against the current first-place team in Chris Allen.
84:29Ray, you're taking on Eric Edholm in a battle of O-1 teams, and I look to go 2-0 against Dan Titus.
84:35So, Jamar Chase, you want to take it slow for another week?
84:39Why did you have to mention two O-1 teams?
84:41You didn't do that for any – you had to just conveniently remind me that my team was O-1, right?
84:48You just had to do that as we closed the show out?
84:51I don't know what to tell you, man. Play better.
84:54Start the correct players. Ray, in fantasy football, Ray, you want to start the players who score more points.
85:00Keep this same energy, Mr. Harmon. You keep this same damn energy, Mr.
85:04Harmon. Listen, honestly, I didn't have that great of a weak one.
85:08Okay, it was not that awesome for me. So, the fact that I escaped with the win, I'm feeling pretty good about that.
85:14Shout out to Derrick Henry. I was told he was washed.
85:18I was told he was done. 30% of his way to double-digit touchdowns.
85:22You love to see it. It's nice when the good guys get a win.
85:26I think that's what we're really thinking about here.
85:29All right. That does it for today's show. Ray, because I do love you, buddy.
85:33We're friends. Tell the people what you're working on so they can go support your work here.
85:38What do you got coming up this week? Yeah, this week, a piece came out, I believe, today, kind of piggybacking off
85:45the Panic Meter show that you guys produced yesterday, but talking about some different players.
85:50So, check that out over on Yahoo. And then Friday, we're diving into some X's and O's, some matchups to exploit for your fantasy football matchups on Sunday.
85:58So, check out all that content over on Yahoo.
86:01And then check me out on YouTube at RayGQ.
86:04And we got a lot of cool stuff over there as well.
86:07No doubt. And let's hope for all the good guys out there that Justin Herbert and Jalen Waddell show up to work
86:14this week, because that's what we really need for Team Harmon.
86:17But definitely go make sure you check out Ray's work, and let's hope he's not writing about Justin Herbert in the Panic Meter again in week number three.
86:26All right. That's going to do it for today's show.
86:29Shout out to all you guys. Really appreciate it.
86:31We have a big show for you tomorrow. Nate Tice joins me for a fun one.
86:36We're going to talk about some teams that disappointed what we can believe.
86:40Are we believing some of these week one lies, or are they truths?
86:44We'll get into that tomorrow at 4 p.m. Eastern on this YouTube channel.
86:48Subscribe so you don't miss it. We'll catch you all tomorrow.
86:51Until then, we are out.
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