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10 Fantasy Data Points you need to know for Week 3

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 29 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 23, 2026
Published
Wed, September 23, 2026
113
Player insights
71
Players mentioned
Topics
Travis KelceJosh DownsBo NixBryce YoungDeVonta SmithKirk CousinsLamar JacksonRashee RiceTravis EtienneA.J. BrownBrock PurdyChristian WatsonColston LovelandDak Prescott
Player analysis

Player insights

113

A.J. Brown

PositiveRole23:27

Brown (Wicks) is a player to continue playing in the Eagles' new spread offense. The route percentage data does not show any decline in his involvement, and the improved route concepts and increased three-receiver usage (second in the league) support his continued fantasy relevance.

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NegativeUsage71:33

A.J. Brown (Smitty) is one of two primary passing options in the Philadelphia offense, commanding significant target concentration alongside Donovan Wicks; the Eagles' offense shows high concentration to these two receivers.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeUsage71:06

Amon-Ra St. Brown is targeted on 33% of his routes run, placing him in the mid-tier of target concentration among the receivers analyzed.

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Bo Nix

NegativeProjection49:47

Bo Nix is launching interceptions and not running, making him an unfavorable fantasy option compared to pocket passers like Kirk Cousins in Week 3.

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NegativeProjection49:49

Bo Nix is launching interceptions and not providing rushing volume, making him an unattractive streaming option compared to pocket passers like Kirk Cousins in Week 3; the decline in quarterback rushing league-wide undermines Nix's fantasy value proposition.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Bo Nix among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Broncos receivers who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection47:27

Brock Purdy, a pocket passer who does not rely on rushing volume, becomes more valuable in an environment where quarterback rushing is down 15% and design runs are ineffective; Matt Harmon suggests pocket passers like Purdy who consistently deliver two to three passing touchdowns per week are preferable to rushing-dependent quarterbacks in the current NFL landscape.

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PositiveValue50:38

Matt Harmon identifies Brock Purdy as an undervalued pocket passer in fantasy football as offensive coordinators reduce designed quarterback runs league-wide (at a 12-year low), making traditional passers more attractive relative to mobile quarterback options.

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Bryce Young

PositiveProjection0:52

Bryce Young has been one of the best quarterbacks so far in the young 2026 NFL season under Brad Idzik's play-calling (after Dave Canales relinquished duties). The Panthers offense is third in expected fantasy points per play and ranks 13th in offensive creativity while 14th in static score but fourth in paid score, indicating effective schematic design. Young is ranked QB14 in early rankings, in the same zone as Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert, and is preferable to Drake May against Jacksonville in Week 3.

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NegativeRole71:56

Bryce Young's offense (Panthers) shows high target concentration, with McMillan and Cochran commanding over 50% of the passing opportunity; Young must choose between these two primary options rather than spreading targets across the offense.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Bryce Young among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Panthers receivers who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Caleb Williams

NegativeRole50:14

Matt Harmon notes that while Caleb Williams' scrambling ability and off-script plays were praised, offensive coordinators may be reducing designed runs league-wide to avoid quarterback injury risk, which could impact his fantasy ceiling going forward despite his natural running ability.

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Case Keenum

NegativeProjection0:55

Case Keenum may start for the Bears against the Eagles in Week 3 if Tyson Bagent cannot clear concussion protocol. Keenum last threw a pass on Christmas Eve 2023 (17 attempts, 11 completions, 62 yards, 2 INTs for 3.6 yards per attempt). The Eagles are 2-0 against Keenum historically (2018-2019). As a defensive coordinator, you would light up Keenum and make him beat you with his arm, which is not a strength at this stage of his career.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies CeeDee Lamb as a sleeper receiver in the Cowboys' under-center and play-action scheme; Dak Prescott ranks among the top effective play-action passers, and Lamb benefits from vertical route opportunities in this offensive approach.

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Chris Olave

NegativeUsage71:06

Chris Olave is targeted on 25% of his routes run, placing him in the mid-tier of target concentration among the receivers analyzed.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeRole42:34

Rodriguez has lost goal-line work to Basil Tootin; Tootin holds 100% of touches inside the two-yard line and 40% inside the five, indicating Rodriguez is no longer the primary short-yardage back for Jacksonville.

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Christian Watson

PositiveUsage71:18

Christian Watson is benefiting from the Packers' play-action heavy approach; he's at 27.9% targets per route run, which is tightly concentrated with Matthew Golden at 26%, and with Jaxon Reed's injury removal, Watson and Golden will see increased volatility but significant upside in the Packers offense.

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PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Christian Watson as a sleeper receiver in the Packers' under-center and play-action scheme; Jordan Love ranks among the top effective play-action passers, and Watson runs vertical routes that benefit from this offensive approach.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveRole0:52

Chuba Hubbard is involved in the Panthers' receiving game as a pass-catching option. Running backs account for 27% of the team's expected fantasy points, and Hubbard is part of the schematic design where he leaks out of the backfield as a receiving option alongside the three-receiver alignment of Rohn-McMillan, Coker, and Waller.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeProjection0:55

Colston Loveland's fantasy outlook has become choppy with the Bears' quarterback uncertainty. Matt Harmon previously stated he had no panic about Loveland and would continue to ride the wave, but with Case Keenum potentially starting, the situation has become less certain. Loveland is not producing at expected levels and is dealing with injury concerns.

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NegativeRole65:17

Bears assigned him to block more in week two, which didn't work out well; Matt Harmon suggests Bears may have outsmarted themselves with this role allocation for the tight end.

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D.J. Moore

PositiveUsage71:06

D.J. Moore (JSN) is targeted on 44% of his routes run, the highest target-per-route rate mentioned in the analysis; this represents a significant gap between Moore and the second-highest receiver, indicating elite target concentration.

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D'Andre Swift

NegativeUsage64:58

Lined up as outside receiver in week two alongside Roshan Johnson in unconventional formation; Matt Harmon questions this usage pattern, suggesting Bears should prioritize getting young receivers involved instead.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection47:27

Dak Prescott, a pocket passer who does not rely on rushing volume, becomes more valuable in an environment where quarterback rushing is down 15% and design runs are ineffective; Matt Harmon suggests pocket passers like Prescott who consistently deliver two to three passing touchdowns per week are preferable to rushing-dependent quarterbacks in the current NFL landscape.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Dak Prescott among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Cowboys receivers like CeeDee Lamb who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Dalton Kincaid

PositiveProjection26:46

Matt Harmon ranked Kincaid second among tight ends in his weekly rankings, behind McBride and ahead of Craft, Laporta, Warren, and Kelce.

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PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Dalton Kincaid as a sleeper receiver in the Bills' under-center and play-action scheme; Josh Allen ranks among the top effective play-action passers, and Kincaid benefits from vertical route opportunities in this offensive approach.

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Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Daniel Jones among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Giants receivers who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Darius Cooper

NegativeRole21:29

Cooper, lauded as Philadelphia's best blocking receiver, has seven snaps in two-receiver sets and has eaten into slot work in 11 personnel at a 49% slot rate, running only 23% of routes in that package.

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Darren Waller

PositiveSleeper0:35

Darren Waller, rostered in only 3% of Yahoo leagues, has been heavily involved in the Panthers' red zone over back-to-back weeks. He had a touchdown called back in Week 1 and two touchdowns in Week 2, demonstrating consistent red zone opportunity. While he's averaging only 4-5 targets per game, two of those typically come in the red zone. He's a viable streaming option at tight end if available, though you're banking on TD upside.

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De'Von Achane

NegativeUsage71:06

Devon Achane is targeted on 17% of his routes run, placing him in the lower tier of target concentration among the receivers analyzed.

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Denzel Boston

PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Denzel Boston as a sleeper receiver in an under-center and play-action scheme; the context suggests this is tied to an effective play-action passing quarterback, creating vertical route opportunities.

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Deshaun Watson

PositiveMatchup36:22

Watson has been "really good off play action so far this year" and played well in Week 2 against Tampa Bay's weak defense; faces Carolina Panthers in Week 3, which has an imperfect defense but is strongest at outside corner with JC Horn and Mike Jackson, so short-area slot work (where Watson excels) may be more productive than deep shots.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Deshaun Watson among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Browns receivers who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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DeVonta Smith

PositiveRole20:03

Smith has been on the field for 96% of routes through the first two weeks; Matt Harmon ranks him close to top-five wide receivers heading into Week 3 against the Bears, reflecting his elite route participation in Philadelphia's pass-first offense.

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PositiveRole23:27

Smith is positioned as the wide receiver one in Philadelphia's revamped offense under Sean Mannion. The Eagles have shifted to better route concepts over the middle of the field, increased no-huddle percentage and plays per game, and rank second in three-receiver usage. Smith is close to a top-five receiver on the week given the Eagles' inability to run and reliance on the pass, particularly evident in the final drive versus Tennessee where Hurts found Smith repeatedly.

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PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies DeVonta Smith as a sleeper receiver in the Eagles' under-center and play-action scheme; Jalen Hurts ranks among the top effective play-action passers, and Smith runs vertical routes that benefit from this offensive approach.

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Drake Maye

NegativeUsage46:47

Drake May ranks among the top five NFL quarterbacks in rushing yards through Week 2 with 64 rushing yards, falling well short of the 100-yard threshold and indicating reduced rushing volume compared to historical expectations.

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Drew Lock

PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon highlights Drew Locke as the only quarterback to complete 100% of his play-action attempts among those with more than five play-action passes this season; Locke has completed 16 consecutive play-action passes, demonstrating exceptional execution of the Seahawks' play-action scheme with receivers like Jackson Smith-Njigba.

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Emmett Johnson

NegativeUsage27:36

Johnson has 4 targets of 5 or fewer air yards through Week 2, placing him fourth among Chiefs pass catchers in short-area targeting.

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Harold Fannin

NegativeUsage40:35

Fannin is in second place on the Browns with 75 receiving yards through two weeks, significantly behind Boston's 154 yards; part of the Jaguars' receiving depth chart discussion.

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Isaiah Likely

NegativeValue28:05

Harmon mentioned Likely as a viable late-round alternative to Kelce at tight end, noting that Likely "has been fine" as a value option, though Harmon's initial pre-season thesis favoring Likely over Kelce has not materialized given Kelce's strong start.

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Jalen Coker

PositiveRole0:52

Jalen Coker is one of the Panthers' top receiving options in the Brad Idzik offense. He's ranked as a top-24 NFL receiver and is part of a three-receiver alignment (with Ted Rohn-McMillan and Darren Waller) that creates significant defensive challenges. The Panthers have only given him two receiving touchdowns in Week 1, suggesting room for growth in the red zone.

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PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Jalen Coker as a sleeper receiver in an under-center and play-action scheme; the context suggests this is tied to an effective play-action passing quarterback, creating vertical route opportunities.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeProjection22:48

Hurts has zero rushing touchdowns through two weeks of the season, a notable decline from expectations and a potential concern for his fantasy scoring in a run-heavy role.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Jalen Hurts among the top effective play-action passers, though notes not a lot of volume; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Eagles receivers like DeVonta Smith who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Jameis Winston

NegativeProjection0:23

Jameis Winston did not look great in his Monday night start for the Giants. His arm appeared to die on a couple of throws, which was uninspiring. Despite historical precedent of Winston feeding receivers like Malik Nabers with targets, the current version does not inspire confidence in that fantasy narrative.

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Jameson Williams

NegativeBust63:09

Jamison Williams has not had a good game so far this season and is characterized by Matt Harmon as a volatile player who will put duds in lineups and make mistakes; despite team and supporter enthusiasm in training camp and offseason, the reality is that he is unreliable for fantasy purposes.

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PositiveBreakout63:42

Volatile wide receiver with upside in Lions offense; will have big games when team gets under center and launches deep shots downfield, though will also produce duds; ancillary piece with explosive play potential.

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Jared Goff

PositiveValue50:38

Matt Harmon suggests Jared Goff, a pocket passer, may be undervalued in fantasy football as offensive coordinators reduce designed quarterback runs league-wide (at a 12-year low of 26 in 2024), making traditional pocket passers like Goff, Matthew Stafford, and Brock Purdy more attractive fantasy options.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeInjury46:37

Jayden Daniels ranks second in NFL rushing yards through Week 2 but has been sidelined for an extended period due to injury, limiting his fantasy upside during his absence.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Jalen Waddle as a sleeper receiver in an under-center and play-action scheme; the context suggests this is tied to an effective play-action passing quarterback, creating vertical route opportunities.

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Jonathon Brooks

NegativeInjury0:52

Jonathan Brooks is nursing a groin injury for the Panthers, which provides more clarity inside the offense regarding running back usage and receiving opportunities for other players like Chuba Hubbard.

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Jordan Love

PositiveRole70:34

Jordan Love is benefiting from strong play-action usage despite the Packers ranking 19th in rushing success rate; his run game stinks but the weak run game hasn't prevented play-action effectiveness, and Love is still benefiting from this approach even in difficult game scripts against the Vikings and Jets in weeks 1-2.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Jordan Love among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Packers receivers like Christian Watson and Matthew Golden who run vertical routes.

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Josh Allen

NegativeUsage46:47

Josh Allen ranks among the top five NFL quarterbacks in rushing yards through Week 2 but has accumulated only 64 rushing yards, falling well short of the 100-yard threshold and indicating reduced rushing volume compared to historical expectations.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Josh Allen among the top effective play-action passers; this efficiency creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Bills receivers like Dalton Kincaid who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Josh Downs

PositiveRole30:42

Josh Downs has experienced a significant role expansion in the Colts offense. He leads the wide receiver room with 86% snap share and 93% route participation—both career highs that far exceed his previous seasons (prior career high: 69% snap share, 76% route share). Downs is running routes on 71% of dropbacks with two or fewer wide receivers on the field. Matt Harmon emphasizes "the role change has 100% happened for Josh Downs" and calls him "an every week fantasy starter."

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PositiveProjection31:40

Josh Downs leads the NFL in separation score according to Fantasy Points Data, confirming his elite receiving ability. Matt Harmon notes Downs "has been one of the best reception perception performers ever since he landed in the NFL." Despite questions about overall Colts offensive efficiency, Harmon maintains Downs is "an every week fantasy starter in a Colts offense that I think right now is going to have to get that football out quickly."

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PositiveUsage32:00

Josh Downs has a top-10 usage score in the Trinity model, indicating the Colts are prioritizing him heavily. He is being deployed in 12 personnel (two tight ends) with two wide receivers on the field, running routes in that package. The speaker notes Downs is "very much a big part of this offense" and is being used more extensively than initially expected.

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PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Josh Downs as a sleeper receiver in an under-center and play-action scheme; the context suggests this is tied to an effective play-action passing quarterback, creating vertical route opportunities.

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Kalif Raymond

NegativeRole65:09

Receiving snaps in Bears offense when young receivers should be getting opportunities; Matt Harmon suggests Bears should move away from using Raymond and prioritize developing younger talent.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeUsage27:36

Walker leads all pass catchers with 11 targets of 5 or fewer air yards through Week 2, indicating heavy short-area usage in the Chiefs passing game.

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PositiveUsage29:36

Kenneth Walker is now the primary target in Kansas City's short-area passing game, receiving 11 targets of five or fewer air yards. Matt Harmon identifies Walker as "the change force" that has displaced Rasheed Rice from his previous role, indicating Walker is the beneficiary of the Chiefs' offensive adjustment with Mahomes' return.

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Keon Coleman

NegativeRole61:28

Keon Coleman is mentioned as a potentially viable fantasy piece in the Buffalo Bills offense, though his viability is contingent on injury situations; he's positioned as a lower-priority option compared to DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook.

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Khalil Shakir

NegativeRole62:14

Khalil Shakir has been used on more downfield routes this year than usual in the Buffalo Bills offense, though it will take the right matchup for fantasy production; he had explosive plays against the Lions but did not produce a big fantasy day, suggesting volatility in his usage.

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Kirk Cousins

PositiveProjection49:47

Matt Harmon highlights Kirk Cousins as a pocket passer with potential two-touchdown upside in Week 3, positioning him favorably against mobile quarterbacks like Bo Nix who are launching interceptions and not running effectively.

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PositiveProjection49:49

Kirk Cousins, a pocket passer, becomes a more attractive streaming option than rushing-dependent quarterbacks in Week 3; Matt Harmon prefers Cousins' potential for two passing touchdowns over Bo Nix, who is launching interceptions and not providing rushing volume.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Kirk Cousins among the top play-action passers in adjusted yards per attempt; this effectiveness creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Falcons receivers who run vertical routes in the under-center scheme.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeUsage46:47

Lamar Jackson ranks among the top five NFL quarterbacks in rushing yards through Week 2 but has accumulated only 64 rushing yards, falling well short of the 100-yard threshold and indicating reduced rushing volume compared to historical expectations.

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NegativeUsage51:40

Matt Harmon notes that while Lamar Jackson's designed runs can generate explosive plays, the Baltimore Ravens may actually get higher-probability explosive rushing plays from Derek Henry under center, reflecting a league-wide shift toward under-center rushing over quarterback design runs.

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PositiveProjection106:47

Matt Harmon ranks Lamar Jackson second among all quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt on play-action passes; this effectiveness creates sleeper receiver opportunities for Ravens receivers like Rashad Bateman and Zay Flowers who run vertical routes.

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LeQuint Allen

NegativeRole43:06

Allen is being used for passing-down work in Jacksonville's committee backfield approach, limiting his fantasy upside despite being on the field in specific situations.

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Luther Burden

NegativeProjection0:55

Luther Burden's fantasy outlook is negatively impacted by the Bears' quarterback situation. With Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol and Case Keenum potentially starting, Burden would not be a recommended start in Week 3 against the Eagles.

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NegativeProjection65:34

Returning from groin injury suffered in camp; hasn't played particularly well in isolation through first couple weeks; needs to improve performance to regain opportunities, but Matt Harmon expects he will eventually play well and produce; post-week-four buy window may be appropriate.

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Malik Nabers

NegativeInjury0:31

Malik Nabers is dealing with a shoulder injury on top of returning from a major injury earlier in the season. He has not been himself yet despite being a solid player, and the shoulder issue compounds concerns about his fantasy viability with Jameis Winston now at quarterback.

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Malik Willis

NegativeProjection49:19

Matt Harmon is no longer interested in streaming Malik Willis for rushing upside given that quarterback rushing is down 15% league-wide through Week 2; Willis's fantasy value proposition relied on rushing production to compensate for limited passing volume, but the declining rushing environment undermines that strategy.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveUsage71:18

Matthew Golden is at 26% targets per route run in the Packers offense, tightly concentrated with Christian Watson at 27.9%; with Jaxon Reed's injury, Golden and Watson will see increased volatility but significant upside as the primary passing options.

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PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Matthew Golden as a sleeper receiver in the Packers' under-center and play-action scheme; Jordan Love ranks among the top effective play-action passers, creating opportunities for vertical route receivers like Golden.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveProjection47:27

Matthew Stafford, a pocket passer who does not rely on rushing volume, becomes more valuable in an environment where quarterback rushing is down 15% and design runs are ineffective; Matt Harmon suggests pocket passers like Stafford who consistently deliver two to three passing touchdowns per week are preferable to rushing-dependent quarterbacks in the current NFL landscape.

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PositiveValue50:38

Matt Harmon identifies Matthew Stafford as an undervalued pocket passer in fantasy football as offensive coordinators reduce designed quarterback runs league-wide (at a 12-year low), making traditional passers more attractive relative to mobile quarterback options.

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Parker Washington

PositiveUsage71:06

Parker Washington is targeted on 39% of his routes run, the second-highest target-per-route rate in the analysis after D.J. Moore's 44%, indicating elite target concentration.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection29:00

Harmon noted that Kelce's upside could expand further as Patrick Mahomes becomes more integrated back into the Chiefs offense, suggesting Mahomes' return or increased involvement will benefit Kelce's fantasy production.

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NegativeUsage51:12

Matt Harmon notes that while Patrick Mahomes' scrambling ability generates explosive plays, teams like the Chiefs may actually get higher-probability explosive rushing plays from traditional under-center runs (e.g., Ken Walker) rather than relying on quarterback design runs, reflecting a league-wide trend toward under-center rushing.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeUsage25:00

Rice's week two production of 83 yards requires deeper analysis beyond the box score. Approximately 40 of those yards came on the final play of regulation when the Chiefs were in prevent defense, suggesting his actual impact is less than the surface-level stat line indicates. This context is important when evaluating his role in the Kansas City offense relative to Travis Kelce's dominant usage.

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NegativeUsage27:36

Rice has only 2 targets of 5 or fewer air yards through Week 2, a significant decline from his 5.8 per-game average in the 2024-2025 seasons combined. Matt Harmon had previously predicted Rice might take a step back based on charting analysis, and the short-area targeting data confirms this shift; the Chiefs are redirecting short-area passes to Kelce instead.

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PositiveUsage29:19

Rasheed Rice is not receiving the hyper-targeting in short-area routes that defined his 2024 role. Kenneth Walker is now the primary target in that area, with Walker getting 11 targets of five or fewer air yards, which has significantly reduced Rice's volume. Matt Harmon suggests the Chiefs have "no reason to change things up right now" from their previous approach, indicating Rice's role has diminished with Mahomes' return to form.

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Rashid Shaheed

NegativeUsage71:06

Rashid Shaheed is targeted on 21% of his routes run, significantly lower than D.J. Moore's 44% but part of the Saints' target distribution analysis.

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Rashod Bateman

PositiveSleeper106:35

Matt Harmon identifies Rashad Bateman as a sleeper wide receiver opportunity based on the Ravens' high usage of under-center formations and play action passing; Lamar Jackson ranks second in adjusted yards per attempt on play action, and Bateman runs vertical routes that benefit from this scheme, making him a candidate to insert into the number one wide receiver role.

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Rome Odunze

NegativeProjection65:34

Returning from camp injury sustained right before season start; was part-time in week one, back to full-time player status by week two; Matt Harmon expects production to come eventually, with post-week-four buy window potentially appropriate.

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Sam LaPorta

NegativeProjection26:46

Matt Harmon ranked Laporta fourth among tight ends in his weekly rankings, behind McBride, Kincaid, and Craft.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeRole22:31

Philadelphia's rushing attack is ineffective; 48% of carries have gone for two yards or less with only one run of 10-plus yards through two weeks, indicating the offensive line is struggling to create lanes for Barkley and limiting his fantasy upside.

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Terrance Ferguson

PositiveProjection63:56

Example of patience paying off in fantasy; did the right things early but production wasn't there initially; once volume flowed his way, became a top-five wide receiver and top-week tight end performer, demonstrating that early-season struggles don't predict season-long outcome.

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Tetairoa McMillan

PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Tedaroa McMillan as a sleeper receiver in an under-center and play-action scheme; the specific team context suggests this is tied to an effective play-action passing quarterback, creating vertical route opportunities.

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Travis Etienne

PositiveValue43:21

Despite early-season concerns about Jacksonville's backfield usage (Amir Abdullah, LaQuint Allen, Chris Rodriguez getting touches), Etienne remains the primary back and has been successful; Matt Harmon notes sentiment shifted from high preseason expectations to cooled interest due to Rodriguez competition, but now that the season is underway, Etienne is still obtainable and undervalued because he hasn't had a 20-touch week or monster performance yet. Harmon likes him more now than earlier in the offseason and sees him as a running back two with upside to ascend in the back half of the season once Jacksonville consolidates the backfield.

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NegativeUsage43:58

Through two weeks, Etienne has recorded 13 carries for 65 yards against Denver; the receiving game production is below expectations. Jacksonville's backfield remains fragmented with multiple backs (Abdullah, Allen, Rodriguez) getting touches, though Harmon expects this to consolidate as the season progresses.

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NegativeMatchup45:00

Etienne's schedule is tricky before Week 7 bye; Jacksonville plays Patriots this week, then Bengals in Week 4 (whose run defense has improved significantly with Dexter Lawrence), then Eagles and Texans. After the bye and European games, the schedule improves with matchups against Colts and two games against Titans, positioning Etienne as a potential back-half breakout candidate.

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Travis Kelce

PositiveProjection25:00

Kelce is tracking toward a vintage 2022-caliber season. Through two games, he has 16 targets, 12 catches, 172 yards and one touchdown—nearly identical to his 2022 start (16 targets, 13 catches, 172 yards, one touchdown), which culminated in 110 catches, 1,338 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. He is the engine of the Kansas City offense alongside Kenneth Walker, with 25.6% target share in week two, 2.4 yards per route run, 66 yards after the catch, and the seventh-highest usage score among all wide receivers and tight ends in the Trinity model.

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PositiveUsage26:07

Kelce posted nearly 26% target share in Week 2 with 2.4 yards per route run and 66 yards after the catch; ranked seventh highest usage score among all wide receivers in Matt Harmon's Trinity model for the week. He has become the lead target getter in short-area passes (5 or fewer air yards), with 8 such targets through Week 2 compared to 4 per game in the 2024-2025 seasons combined.

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PositiveProjection26:46

Matt Harmon ranked Kelce sixth among tight ends in his weekly rankings (behind McBride, Kincaid, Craft, Laporta, and Warren), but bumped him up a couple spots ahead of the Dolphins matchup due to Miami's brutal defense. Harmon noted this ranking "might be underselling" Kelce's current value.

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PositiveRole27:36

Kelce has shifted into a dual-role target: he leads all pass catchers in short-area targets (5 or fewer air yards) with 8 through Week 2, but also receives explosive plays downfield. This represents a meaningful role change from prior seasons where he was primarily a possession receiver, now functioning as both a safety-valve option and vertical threat.

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PositiveBreakout28:05

Harmon admitted he did not anticipate Kelce's 2026 resurgence, initially viewing him as a late-round "get on base" option at tight end. The turnaround stems from improved fluidity and lighter weight this season, combined with increased short-area targeting and explosive plays. Kelce's 11.5 mph average route speed in 2026 is his best since 2022, suggesting genuine physical improvement rather than scheme-dependent uptick.

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PositiveRole29:19

Kelce is receiving the bulk of short-area targets in Kansas City's offense, not Rasheed Rice. Matt Harmon notes Kelce is "a real starting tight end in fantasy football with some good upside, especially as Patrick Mahomes gets more integrated back in the offense." The Chiefs offense looks markedly different and more functional with Mahomes' return.

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Tre Tucker

PositiveRole62:47

Trey Tucker is being used more on downfield routes this year, specifically big post routes and breaking routes down the field, which aligns with the Raiders' under-center offensive scheme designed to create explosive plays; Matt Harmon notes he's being used on "the right routes this year" despite historical skepticism about his fantasy viability.

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PositiveSleeper106:48

Matt Harmon highlights Trey Tucker as a sleeper receiver in the Ravens' under-center and play-action scheme; when Brock Bowers is healthy, Tucker runs vertical routes that align with Lamar Jackson's effective play-action passing (second in adjusted yards per attempt), creating opportunities for big weeks.

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Trey McBride

PositiveProjection26:46

Matt Harmon ranked McBride as the top tight end in his weekly rankings, ahead of Kincaid, Craft, Laporta, Warren, and Kelce.

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Tucker Kraft

NegativeProjection26:46

Matt Harmon ranked Craft third among tight ends in his weekly rankings, behind McBride and Kincaid. Harmon noted earlier that Craft "hasn't really gotten it going" through Week 2.

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NegativeUsage71:33

Tucker Kraft is one of two primary passing options in the Packers offense alongside Christian Watson and Matthew Golden; while Kraft is noted positively, the offense's target concentration is split between these receivers.

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Tyler Warren

NegativeUsage26:23

Despite scoring touchdowns, Warren has not been heavily utilized in the offense through Week 2, ranking fifth in Harmon's weekly tight end rankings. Harmon contrasted Warren's touchdown production with his limited overall usage, suggesting touchdown dependency rather than sustainable volume.

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NegativeRole32:00

Tyler Warren has not been as involved in short-area passing routes as initially expected in the Colts offense. The speaker anticipated Warren would receive more involvement in that area but notes "so far, he hasn't really been as involved as I thought," with Josh Downs instead becoming the primary target in those situations.

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Tyson Bagent

NegativeInjury0:55

Tyson Bagent, the likely starting quarterback for the Bears in Week 3, is dealing with a concussion and is in the concussion protocol according to sources. This creates uncertainty about the Bears' quarterback situation and is bad news for Bears pass catchers who have not gotten off to a hot start in fantasy.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeUsage27:36

Worthy has 6 targets of 5 or fewer air yards through Week 2, placing him third among Chiefs pass catchers in short-area targeting behind Walker (11) and Kelce (8).

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Zay Flowers

PositiveSleeper107:06

Matt Harmon identifies Zay Flowers as a sleeper receiver benefiting from the Ravens' under-center and play-action passing scheme; Lamar Jackson ranks second in adjusted yards per attempt on play action, and Flowers is positioned to capitalize on vertical route opportunities in this offensive approach.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,097
0:00Big show for you here today. It is the Week 3 Data Dump.
0:04Ray Garvin joins me for 10 Stats You Need to Know heading into Week 3.
0:09Plus, we start off the show with some sad news.
0:12Sounds like Jackson Dart's injury is much more serious than was originally feared.
0:16He might be out for the season. We give an update on what we're thinking about some of these Giants players in fantasy.
0:23Malik Nabors, James Winston not looking so great on the Monday Night Football.
0:26We talk through all of that. Then again, we get into the stats you need to know.
0:32A lot of under center, a lot of scheme talk in today's show.
0:36A lot of Panthers discussion as well. I mean, come on, Bryce Young, absolutely crushing it right now.
0:41All the things you need to know heading into Week 3.
0:44Players that are up, players that are down. Plus, we give you a recap of the Yahoo Fantasy Analyst League.
0:51You don't want to miss that because somebody is 2-0.
0:54With that, let's get into it. What's going on, everyone?
0:57I'm Matt Harmon. Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast.
0:59It is a hell of a day to talk ball and joining me to do just that.
1:05It is our good friend, Ray Garvin. Ray, what's going on, man?
1:08How you doing? Matt, we were talking pre-show. It is 2026, and yet we have reversed time of decade to the number one and number two overall pick.
1:17Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are back in our lives as starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
1:22Honestly, we're going to get into data and talk all this stuff, but what an interesting start to the football season, the fantasy season.
1:29Dude, I know we're going to go places on this show, but man, what a hell of a start of the season, and not in a great way.
1:37Injuries are just part of the game, but pretty rough to start the season, Matt.
1:42I do think we do this every year where it's like, man, injuries are worse than ever.
1:47It's just like injuries are bad every year. Devastating things happen, but you're right to point this out that it's crazy that
1:54not only are Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota still so squarely in our lives, they're also in the same division.
2:00I mean, we're going to get games between these guys.
2:03We're going to get games between these two guys here this season.
2:07Yes, as Ray is alluding to, we do have some big quarterback news to start off with at the top, but we
2:13will, of course, be getting into all of our usual shenanigans, our usual hijinks here on our weekly Tuesday show.
2:19We've got the data dump, 10 stats you need to know heading into week three.
2:24Plus, we've got a little Yahoo Fantasy League recap at the end.
2:28Somebody on this program is 2-0, but we'll get into all of that as we go throughout the day here.
2:34For now, let's get into some fantasy fallout, and again, as we mentioned, further testing revealed that quarterback Jackson Dart of the
2:40New York Giants, his knee injury is worse than initially thought, and now looking at the possibility of season-ending surgery, according to Adam Schefter and Ian Rappaport.
2:49Man, wow, what a brutal turnaround. I mean, I remember doing that just on the show.
2:54I was just live on this YouTube channel not that long ago with Hayden Winks hearing about how the Giants, Joe Shane, saying, oh, he's doing pretty good.
3:02He is doing pretty good. He was fighting to get back in the game on Monday night, fighting to get back in the game.
3:09Everybody on Twitter is telling me good news he was in the air when he was hit.
3:15That might have really saved it, might have really saved his knee.
3:18Now, looking like Jackson Dart might be done for the season after having a really nice week one.
3:24I mean, the vibes have gone from great with the New York Giants beating up on your Dallas Cowboys in week one to now horrible.
3:31Like, not only is Dart maybe out for the season, Neighbors is dealing with the shoulder thing.
3:36Andrew Thomas left that game. Brian Burns left the game.
3:39All their best players, including their young, promising second-year quarterback.
3:43What a devastating piece of news for the Giants to get here.
3:46Yeah, this has been a roller coaster of emotions because it looked awful and everybody felt and thought that it was probably pretty bad.
3:53And then you get to the end of the game and I'm watching the Giants walk off the field and there was
4:00a shot of Jackson Dart and Brian Burns or Jackson Dart and Holland, Javon Holland, walking off.
4:05And Dart's pointing to the crowd. He's smiling. He's looking good.
4:09I'm like, okay, well, he's walking off. He feels okay.
4:12He's okay. Run a bad. He may miss a couple of games.
4:15And then to see this now, listen, this whole, I feel like this whole injury, walk off the field, get carted off gate.
4:22Nobody knows what the hell it is. You get carted off, you're okay.
4:26You walk off on your own, you're not okay.
4:29This is very bad. This is very bad, bad harm.
4:32And this is a Giants team where we have quite a bit from fantasy football vested in this offense from neighbors to Dart, Isaiah Likely, Cam Scadaboo.
4:40And we were talking before the show. I'm just looking at the Winston and I know it was just getting thrown in late.
4:47He didn't look great to me either. He looked pretty bad out there at the quarterback spot.
4:53So devastating news for Dart and more so for fantasy.
4:56This is not good. Not good at all. Yeah, there's an old tweet of mine from December 20.
5:01I mean, it must have been December 2024 where I was joking that remember when Malik neighbors dominated the Indianapolis Colts in
5:08the late in his rookie season and ultimately put the Giants out of contention for picking one of the top quarterbacks in the draft.
5:15Ultimately, they end up with Jackson Dart, of course.
5:18But I was joking at the end of that game.
5:21I was like, yeah, he knows he's just putting himself in position to get them to a skew taking a quarterback so that they can sign.
5:29Jameis Winston in the offseason and Malik neighbors can go for like 2000 yards just getting the Jameis Winston fantasy scam as
5:35Jameis Winston in the middle of that or at the end of that 2024 season was doing the fantasy scam with Jerry Judy and the 2024 Cleveland Browns.
5:44So and then they ended up signing Jameis Winston.
5:47Of course, obviously, he wasn't the starting quarterback. They also started.
5:50They also got Russell Wilson and Jackson Dart in that offseason as well.
5:54But man, yeah, you could tell me a couple of years ago, if not just like a full calendar year ago, Jameis
6:01Winston just pummeling Malik neighbors with targets over and over again.
6:04You could sell me on that being a good story, not for the Giants at all.
6:09It's a bad story, a sad story for the Giants with Dart out.
6:13But for neighbors in fantasy, you could tell me on that being a good thing.
6:17But Jameis did not look great, as you mentioned, specifically like his arm died on a couple of those throws.
6:24That was that was pretty uninspiring. And I just don't really know what to make of this now, because neighbors himself is
6:30also coming back from a major injury. Certainly has not been himself yet, even if he's been a solid player.
6:36And now he's got the shoulder thing going on.
6:39So I just I wish I felt better about that.
6:42Ray, I wish I felt like my 2024 self would have felt about the idea of Jameis Winston, you know, just locking
6:49in on Malik neighbors and throwing him passes all over the football field.
6:53I don't feel that way right now. And that is a shame.
6:56Yeah, neither do I. And you're talking about locking in.
6:59It didn't feel like at least publicly, right? Jameis Winston was everywhere this offseason.
7:04I don't know how much locked in he was at throwing the ball or expecting to play early on, because I thought
7:10he was going to be a broadcaster coming into the season.
7:14I see a lot of people and I'm saying this loosely, like optimistic that Jameis could come in and do exactly what
7:20you said, just feed these options and pepper these guys with targets.
7:24He's not a talented receiver. Greg Roman offense where they were using Pat Ricard, a lot of heavy personnel.
7:30And then on Monday night in week two, they felt a lot more like a Matt Nagy offense.
7:35And that actually is born out in the data where their use of heavy personnel, multiple tight ends, a fullback, multiple running backs.
7:42They dropped down to 20th and heavy personnel ranking in week number two.
7:46After week number one, that was one of the teams that was really up there in terms of that data.
7:52So, yeah, it's just it's a real shame. They were sixth in heavy personnel usage in week one.
7:58So drop off there for sure. I feel like they might be a unit that's caught between two identities.
8:04They don't have their guiding star, which would be their quarterback.
8:07They don't have their guiding star, which would be Malik neighbors at 100 percent.
8:11Clearly just yet. I worry that the Giants week one win might end up being a just like a mirage.
8:17Ultimately, you know, it's one of those week one mirages that we look back and be like, remember when the Giants with
8:24Jackson Dart looking good, throwing passes in the flat all over Christian Parker's defense.
8:28I'm a little concerned about that. Certainly, you know, if you took neighbors in the third round, you were feeling like you might got a value.
8:36Maybe you still do. I'm a little nervous about this.
8:39This whole Giants operation. So we'll wait to get more news on Jackson Dart, but certainly a unit that I think is going in the wrong direction here.
8:48More quarterback news real quickly. We can touch on this because we're not 100 percent sure how this is going to play out.
8:55But Bears quarterback Tyson Bajan. Yes, the likely starting quarterback for the Bears this week.
8:59He is dealing with a concussion. He's in the concussion protocol, according to sources from rap sheet and case Keenum.
9:05Talk about a guy like, oh, wow. Jameis Winston might be starting games.
9:09Marcus Mariota. Case Keenum starting games in the year 2026.
9:12I remember writing about case. I was writing case Keenum film breakdowns on backyard banter dot com in 2013.
9:18My first blog before I'd even sniffed the podcast, Mike.
9:21That's for sure. So, I mean, we might get case Keenum this week against an Eagles defense.
9:26That is pretty concerning for all of these Bears pass catchers who have not gotten off to a hot start in fantasy this year.
9:34Ray. Yeah, I love the graphic on the screen.
9:37You got to go back to 2019. The Eagles are 2-0 against Case Keenum back in 2019, 2018 when he was quarterbacking an NFC championship Vikings team.
9:45This is, again, adjusting expectations. And honestly, I don't know when the last time he's thrown a pass, when he's played.
9:51I don't know if we can spin this to say this is good for the Bears pass catchers.
9:57This is bad. Caleb not being there is bad overall.
10:00Baygent not being there. I just, I really don't know what to say besides this is the game that we choose to
10:06burden ourselves with week in and week out. You can't feel good, right?
10:10I don't care how you slice this. If Case Keenum starting, if I'm a defensive coordinator, I'm lighting him up and making him beat us with the arm.
10:19And I have little confidence that Case Keenum at this stage of his career, not when you were writing about him back
10:26in 2013, that he is going to be able to dice defenses up with his arm.
10:30This is, listen, panic meter. You talk about it.
10:33I write about it. Everybody like this is, what do you do, Matt?
10:37Now we're panicked. Now we're panicked. Okay. Last time Case Keenum threw a pass was Christmas Eve in 2023.
10:43What a magical moment for the Houston Texans against the Cleveland Browns.
10:47He had 17 attempts, 11 completions for 62 yards and two interceptions.
10:50Of course he did. Of course he did. 3.6 yards per attempt.
10:54Earlier that year, the week before, December 17, 2023 against the Tennessee Titans, 229 yards, one touchdown, one interception.
11:00Okay. All right. Moving in the right direction there.
11:02We'll put those in the projection model. Yeah, you let me know.
11:06Put that forward look into 2026. Harmon, I don't know what to do with that.
11:11What do you want me to do with that?
11:13The Bears scored 59 points in week one and now we're already in the Case Keenum zone?
11:18How has this happened? I mean, my God. Brutal, brutal stuff here.
11:22Yeah. I mean, of course, we'll wait to see if this is truly what's going to happen here.
11:28Case Keenum starting games in 2026. Three seasons ago, last time he's thrown a pass.
11:32He's basically been a glorified quarterback coach here for quite some time.
11:36Yeah. Obviously, this is bad. I would not be jacked up about starting Luther Burden or Roma Dunze.
11:41And Colson Lovell was the guy I was like, you know, I said on the panic meter, I actually don't have any panic about Colson Lovell.
11:49And I'm going to be I'm going to continue to ride the wave.
11:53Now, I think that wave's pretty rocky at this point.
11:56Right. So I'm choppy. The way it's getting a little choppy.
12:00Wave might be getting a little choppy here, but I'm not sure what you do.
12:04Like you plug in a waiver wire option. Who's on the waiver wire?
12:08You starting. Actually, you know what? Right. Let's use that as a transition point, because there might be a tight end who
12:15plays for the first team that you want to talk about that maybe people could pick up and start here.
12:21With that, let's get into the week three data dump.
12:24Yes, science. Calculations are correct. You're going to see some serious.
12:27Yeah, I'm seeing some serious. You know what? Across the NFL with these quarterback injuries.
12:32I mean, oh, my God. OK, Ray, your first data point.
12:35I was hinting at this about with Darren Waller was the tight end I was talking about.
12:40Had himself a couple of moments in week two.
12:43He plays for the Carolina Panthers. You want to talk about their youngish quarterback.
12:47What do you got here for your first data point?
12:50We'll go back to 2023, but not Case Keenum.
12:53The 2023 number one overall pick, Bryce Young in this Carolina Panthers offense.
12:57Matt, is this an offense that quietly and, you know, sneakily we want pieces of this offense?
13:02Right now, this Brad Idzik and Bryce Young connection, it's working right now.
13:06It is working. And you're looking at the options, you know, Ted Rohn-McMillan, Jalen Coker.
13:11You mentioned Darren Waller there as one of his red zone targets, Chuba Hubbard in the receiving game.
13:16And we don't wish for injuries here. But with Jonathan Brooks nursing the groin injury, like there's just some more clarity inside of this offense.
13:24But you look at Carolina right now. So I looked at, I put together this chart, right?
13:29Offensive creativity versus fantasy football opportunity. It's not some new model.
13:32It's just looking at teams who are running motion, deployment and target allocation to your receivers, your running backs, tight ends.
13:39There's play action, RPO, like different things to get defenses off script.
13:42And Carolina ranks 13th through two weeks. But what's really interesting is they're right there with the Detroit Lions where there's a lot of fantasy opportunity.
13:50They're expected fantasy points per play. Third in the NFL right now.
13:54Third in the NFL despite being right closer to the middle of the pack in offensive creativity.
13:59But you see Carolina there next to the Rams.
14:02Wide receivers are accounting for 53% of the team's expected fantasy points.
14:06Running backs 27%, which tells me that Bryce Young finally is starting to become a floor raising type quarterback supporting a real receiving ecosystem.
14:13Whether that be Waller, Chuba Hubbard in the receiving game.
14:16And he's done this without receiving touchdowns to Tedderola McMillan and only two to Jalen Coker in week one.
14:22Right? The running back deployment is here. They're using motion on about 70% of the charted plays.
14:27Play action on about 19% of charted plays. So it's a two-week sample size.
14:31And you don't want to make sweeping wholesale conclusions about a team, an ecosystem, an environment.
14:36But as Josh Norris said, like at this point, you've got to remove the preconceived bias about who Bryce Young was early in his career.
14:44What he was in year two when he got benched.
14:47Like this has changed with Dave Canales relinquishing play calling duties.
14:50He has been one of the best quarterbacks so far in this young NFL season.
14:55And the answer to your question is, if Darren Waller were on waivers, because we're not just talking about a Loveland banged up.
15:02We're not just talking, you know, Loveland not producing.
15:04You've got Dallas Goddard banged up. They had to bring Zach Ertz back into the building.
15:09If Darren Waller is out there, I think based on what they're doing offensively, there might be some worse options if you had to stream them.
15:17Darren Waller, 3% rostered in Yahoo League. So he's certainly available.
15:20Somebody you can consider here. They're playing the Cleveland Browns.
15:24A little bit better defense than what they've played so far, you know, with the Bears and the Falcons.
15:29But I agree with you on this one. And like, I think, Ray, if you polled the I bet you I bet
15:36you if you polled a bunch of Twitter users, you know, or people that listen to this show, maybe not people to
15:43listen to this show because we actually talk about a lot.
15:46But we'll just say like general NFL fans. I bet a lot of people don't even know that Dave Canales is not
15:53calling the plays anymore, that this is Brad Idzik.
15:55And it's actually been a pretty significant change here.
15:58And Josh is so right about this that who cares what Bryce Young was doing three years ago with freaking the version
16:05of DJ Chark that the Panthers had and Jonathan Mingo as the outside receivers when we're talking about Tedrow McMillan and Jalen
16:12Coker, two guys that if I was to sit down and rank wide receivers right now, both these just NFL, not fantasy.
16:18And probably honestly, probably even fantasy at this point.
16:21These two would be two top 24 receivers in the league.
16:24That's how high I am on these two guys.
16:27They're awesome. Waller, too. You saw this with the Falcons where they would essentially have McMillan and Coker aligned near each other
16:34and then Waller on the isolated like other side of the field.
16:37And those are just three big dudes for the defense to account for.
16:41And you've seen plays where then like Chuba Hubbard just leaks out.
16:45And it's a really good schematic situation that they have there.
16:48It's it has been good. It's it has been aggressive and leaning into some concepts that feel very much like Alabama Bryce Young.
16:55And a lot of the data points that I like to look at for an offense, you brought up the creativity, which
17:02I think is actually pretty in line. I think we probably have some similar data points here.
17:07I talk about my static score. They're 13th in static score, but they're fourth and paid score.
17:12So they're really creative. They're pushing the right buttons.
17:15Lots of play action. Use of motion. They're also they are pretty gun heavy.
17:19They get into the shotgun a lot because I think that's what Bryce Young likes to do.
17:25So, again, the offense is pretty well built around Bryce Young and these really talented big receivers that they have here.
17:31And when it comes to Waller in particular, just Darren Waller in particular, this isn't I'm not saying that he's going to
17:38go out there and have 20 targets like a like a Trey McBride.
17:42Oh, no. But back to back weeks, he has been involved in the red zone big time in the red zone.
17:48I mean, he could have three touchdowns this season had one not got called back in week one.
17:54I'm not telling people to go out there and blow fab on Waller.
17:58But again, you're banking on just TD upside for him.
18:01And if you're telling me, Matt, that he's got Ray, all he's getting is four to five targets a game.
18:07But two of those will come in the red zone.
18:10I'd be like, you know what? Like if I have to roll one out there, if I'm hurting at the tight end
18:16position, you can do worse than that. You are absolutely chasing touchdowns.
18:20You have to know that you're chasing touchdowns. That's just part of it.
18:24Now, he had two touchdowns in week. He had two touchdowns in week two.
18:28He had a touchdown in week one called back.
18:31So I think that's something to just remember, too, that we've seen him have, you know, I think he had a touchdown
18:38called back or it was like a miss or something like that.
18:41Yeah, it was a touchdown called back. Yep. Yep.
18:44Yeah. So, again, it's like we've seen the proof of concept here.
18:48If you're playing Darren Waller, you're purely chasing touchdowns.
18:51But I don't know. You want to chase touchdowns with Darren Waller?
18:54Do you want to play Colson Loveland? I don't know.
18:57Let me ask you this, Harmon, real quick, and we could wrap on Bryce here.
19:02Cleveland, I believe it's the Detroit Lions, the next two.
19:05Yes. And I think Philadelphia after that. A bye.
19:08Yeah. They have a bye in week. They have a bye in week five.
19:12Okay. Looking at the state of the quarterback position, is Bryce play to be a startable quarterback 10, 12 team leagues?
19:18I think the answer is firmly yes. I have him right now.
19:22My early rankings is QB 14, you know, in the same zone as Kyler Murray, same zone as Justin Herbert.
19:28I would rather play Bryce Young than Drake May against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville in week three.
19:33That's where we're at. Again, can't stress this enough.
19:36And we told the story here with both of our data points.
19:40This is an offense that's built around Bryce and what he likes to do and what he's good at.
19:46And they've got talented players. I think we keep riding this thing until maybe, yeah, that Eagles matchup in week six.
19:52But for the next two weeks, Browns, certainly the Lions.
19:55Yeah, sign me up for the carnival ride with the Detroit Lions in week four.
20:00I'm already ready for that one. Okay. My first data point heading into week three is actually about those aforementioned Philadelphia Eagles.
20:06Are the Eagles kind of going to suddenly become a pass first team and a three wide receiver based offense?
20:12I mean, by the way, the producers are killing it with the titles here.
20:17Yours, yours last one was I want to be forever young.
20:20This one is three little birds set on my wide receiver window.
20:24Yeah, we got three little birds sitting on the wide receiver window from the Philadelphia Eagles.
20:29So the Eagles ran 11 personnel on 76% of their overall plays through the first two weeks of the season.
20:35That trails only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on passing plays.
20:38It's almost 90%. The Eagles were also first and no huddle rate in week two.
20:42I think we expected this offense to be run heavy, multiple tight ends, the whole deal.
20:47Guess what, folks? They can't be that because their offensive line, especially on the interior, is a mess right now.
20:53And they've got two tight ends on injured reserve.
20:56This is a wide receiver based offense right now.
20:59And they pretty much play three wide. Like they play three main guys.
21:03Devontae Smith has been on the field for 96% of the routes.
21:06Makai Lemon, 81%. Dontavian Wicks, 79%. Now, Wicks had a little bit of an injury, I think, in last week's game.
21:13So I think that's why the route percentage is down for him.
21:16But in two receiver sets, when they go to two receiver sets, it is just Wicks and Smith.
21:22They're the only ones that have run a route.
21:25Lemon has run zero routes. Lemon has played zero snaps in two receiver set.
21:29Meanwhile, Darius Cooper, who was lauded recently as their best blocking receiver, he has seven snaps in two receiver sets and has
21:35actually eaten into some slot work in 11 personnel.
21:38Only 23% of the routes, but he's been a 49% slot player.
21:42So Lemon right now is a bench hold to me.
21:45He's a back half of the season player. You can't use him right now.
21:49He's just not getting enough opportunities. Only target on 8% of his routes as he's ramping back up from an offseason of just a bunch of hamstring injuries.
21:58But, I mean, against the Bears this week, Devontae Smith is going to be close to my top five wide receiver rankings.
22:04And Dontavian Wicks, 2.49 yards per route through two weeks.
22:07He's been efficient. He's been effective as a big play option.
22:11He's definitely going to be in flex consideration as well.
22:14And I kind of wonder, Ray, if this is what the offense looks like the rest of the season with these three receivers.
22:21Well, you asked that question at the beginning. Is this going to turn into like a pass-first Eagles offense?
22:27I just quickly looked up some stuff right now about the rushing attack of Philadelphia.
22:31So, 48% of their carries so far this season have gone for two yards or less with only a single run of 10-plus yards.
22:38Like, they can't run the ball. They cannot run the football effectively right now.
22:43The offensive line is struggling up front to create lanes for Barkley, for whomever's back there.
22:48Even Jalen Hurts. No rushing touchdowns so far through this season for Jalen Hurts.
22:52And we'll talk about that a little bit later.
22:55And, yeah, you and I talked about this. It might have been the final show or at least one of the final
23:01shows of the summer where we were like, is Don Tavey and Wicks, could he really be a thing, Harmon?
23:07And you and I were both like, yeah, I'm in, I'm in, I'm in.
23:12Which made kind of the lemon involvement inside of this offense questionable, knowing that they don't even use three receivers to that degree.
23:19They're going to continue to do what they've been doing because that works, right?
23:23That final drive versus Tennessee where Hurts had to get the ball out.
23:27Finding Devontae Smith, I think you're spot on with him being close to a top five receiver on the week.
23:33They can't run. They're going to have to lean on the pass.
23:37And I saw one of those next-gen charts two weeks into the season under Mannion versus last year.
23:42And there's a lot of over the middle of the field stuff as well that Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia are deploying.
23:49So I would say, yeah, the answer to that is probably yes.
23:52Yeah, they've changed up the route concepts, which is welcomed for these receivers who are good at operating over the middle.
23:59And I think Hurts actually played really well in week two.
24:02But they've kicked, as I mentioned, kicked up the pace.
24:05Like no huddle percentage is up. Their plays per game are up.
24:09But in terms of all the other things that you'd think like, oh, a Sean Mannion, more of a Green Bay Ram style offense.
24:16Nope. 29th in motion, 28th under center, 31st play action, but second in the three receiver stuff.
24:21So I think it's going to be a spread offense with better route concepts.
24:25And I think that leans in pretty well to what these three receivers do.
24:30So the takeaway here is Devontae Smith, wide receiver one, but Kyle Lemon, hold on to it.
24:35Like just, I think his time is coming. I actually think the film's been okay on him.
24:40But again, not a first half season. And then Wicks is a guy you continue to play until the route percentage shows otherwise.
24:47And it's not showing that right now. Okay, Ray, what is your second data point heading into week three?
24:53Second data point, Matt Harmon. I've heard. I've heard.
24:55Happy wife, happy life. That's what I've heard. And Travis Kelsey got married over the summer.
25:00His wife is in the press box showing off that ring.
25:04And he is playing some doggone good football right now.
25:07Through two games, 16 targets, 12 catches, 172 yards and one touchdown.
25:10Almost identical to his 2022 start. 16 targets, 13 catches, 172 yards and one touchdown.
25:15He finished that season. Matt Harmon and all you beautiful people watching this show.
25:19With 110 catches, 1338 on the receiving yard total and 12 touchdowns.
25:23Now, I'm not reversing the hands of time that far, but as you're looking around this Kansas City Chiefs offense, right?
25:29This is why you have to. And I was a Rice guy all offseason.
25:34You've got to go deeper beyond the box score.
25:36You see those 83 yards and you're thinking, oh man, Rasheed kind of got it going.
25:41And you're like, well, like 40 of them came on the last play of regulation when they were just kind of playing prevent defense.
25:48But Travis Kelsey has been a huge part of Kansas City's success early this season.
25:53And I'm questioning to everybody, like, are we getting maybe like a little vintage Schwanz song, Travis Kelsey in quotes, light type season?
26:00He seems to be the engine outside of Kenneth Walker in this offense.
26:04Like there's targets are there. Opportunity is there. He looks spry.
26:07He looks good. The offense is flowing through him.
26:10The usage backs it up as well. 20, almost 26% target share in week two, 2.4 yards per route run, 66 after the catch.
26:17He had the seventh highest usage score in my Trinity model on the week with wide receivers combined.
26:23So I'm just, I'm asking you, you're watching this and I'm seeing Tyler Warren score touchdowns but not be utilized a bunch.
26:30You know, Tucker Craft hasn't really gotten it going.
26:32Right now, outside of McBride and Dalton Kincaid, how many tight ends would you want over Travis Kelsey in fantasy football?
26:39I mean, it's not many, man. I did my weekly tight end rankings and, you know, I think maybe you could say, yeah, yeah.
26:46Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Tucker Craft, Sam Laporta, Tyler Warren, Travis Kelsey.
26:50You know, I mean, that's kind of where I've had it ranked right now.
26:54And that might be, honestly, that might be underselling.
26:57Oh my God, they're playing the Dolphins. Nevermind. I'm going to be, let me go ahead and make an edit on the fly here.
27:04I'm going to go ahead and bump Travis Kelsey up a couple spots here.
27:08That Dolphins defense is absolutely brutal. Yeah. A lot more high profile, I'm going to guess, than the Harmon or Garvin wedding.
27:15So he was looking good for that wedding. He got himself in wedding shape.
27:19Just continue the momentum into football season, baby. And he's looking good out there.
27:23He's, he's, it's not the explosiveness. It's the fluidity.
27:26And just, I think that's from being a little bit lighter this year.
27:30And, you know, he has been the lead target getter in terms of the pass catchers, especially in the short areas.
27:36I pointed this stat out on Twitter that targets of five or fewer air yards in 2026.
27:42So far, Kenneth Walker has 11. Travis Kelsey has eight.
27:45Xavier Worthy has six. Emmitt Johnson has four. Rasheed Rice has two.
27:48If you look back at the 2024 to 2025 seasons combined per game, Rice was at 5.8.
27:54Kelsey was at four. So they're pretty much like, okay, we're, we're throwing Travis Kelsey more of these like layup passes.
28:00He's become that guy, but he's also getting the explosive plays in the passing game as well.
28:05So yeah, look, I'll admit, I did not see this coming for Kelsey.
28:09He was a guy that was just like, ah, why, what's the point?
28:13You know what Kelsey is. It's you're getting on base at the tight end position.
28:18Maybe take Isaiah likely or somebody like that later.
28:20Just, just instead likely has been fine. But I discounted the get in wedding shape version of Travis Kelsey, but it's been a hit so far this season.
28:29You saw the tweet from Tice up there. I didn't, I didn't know Nate put that up about the miles per hour on his route speed.
28:37Like this is crazy right here. 2026, 11 and a half miles per hour average route speed.
28:42This would be according to this Nate Tice. Oh, next is next.
28:46You said, I was going to give Nate the credit for looking this one up, but that'd be the best since 2022,
28:52which is what we're talking about in this data dump, uh, in this data dump segment was, I started off with those 2022 stats.
29:00But yeah. And Matt, I'll just say this. Maybe we should have seen it coming a little bit more because you were
29:06very vocal about how you thought Rasheed Rice might take a step back based on some of the charting stuff that you saw.
29:13So it's actually coming to fruition, right? They are not hyper targeting Rasheed Rice in those short area stuff.
29:19It's going back to Kelsey, man. So as, as you move forward, like this is a real starting tight end and fantasy
29:26football with, I'll just say some, some, some good upside, especially as Patrick Mahomes gets more, you know, integrated back in the offense.
29:33Like everything just looks a little different in Kansas city right now.
29:36Good for Kelsey. Yeah, no question. And obviously good for Kenneth Walker too, who, as I mentioned, is the guy that really
29:43is the change force for Rasheed Rice. Like Walker getting 11 targets of five or fewer air yards.
29:49That's what's really dug into it for Rice, who again, want to give Rice.
29:53I mean, I don't want to give him grace for, you know, back he was in jail, but I mean, the guy,
30:00the guy was in jail rehabbing an E injury.
30:02Like maybe he's going to be better in the back half of the season, but right now, like they got no reason.
30:09They had a lot of reason to change things up from the PPR scam.
30:13Rasheed Rice offense of 2025. No reason to change things up right now.
30:17Cause that chief's offense, like my homes is back.
30:20Like my homes is back. The chiefs are back.
30:23There's so much more enjoyable to watch right now than they have been over the previous two seasons.
30:28And a big part of that is because wedding shape, Kelsey, like let's, let's get it.
30:33That's, that's the thing. That's where we're at right now.
30:36Okay. That same game. Actually, for me, I'll go to Josh Downs, a second data point for me this week.
30:42And we'll keep this real simple. The role change has 100% happened for Josh Downs.
30:47He leads the Colts wide receiver room with a significant gap in both his snap share, 86%, and his route participation, which is 93%.
30:54He has never cleared a 69% snap share or 76% route share in any prior season.
30:59He's run around on 71% of the dropbacks with two or fewer wide receivers on the field.
31:04He previously averaged an 8% route share in his first three seasons.
31:08He's a 60-40 slot wide player. I think that's totally perfect for him.
31:12Ray, the role changes happened for Josh Downs. Josh Downs looks fantastic out there.
31:16I still have my, I have my questions about the Colts, you know, just the efficiency of the offense with Alec Pierce,
31:23not in the mix, but they signed sacrificial X receiver Darius Slayton.
31:26And I don't think that's going to change Josh Downs' role.
31:30Like, Downs, to me, is an every week fantasy starter in a Colts offense that I think right now is going to
31:36have to get that football out quickly. And, I mean, look at that.
31:40Josh Downs leads the NFL in separation score according to fantasy points data.
31:44Yeah, he's been one of the best reception perception performers ever since he landed in the NFL.
31:49So, no shock to me that he finds himself on that list.
31:53Yeah, Josh Downs, I was thinking about you when I was watching the game because there were a couple of times where
32:00the Colts went to 12 personnel with two wide receivers on the field and Josh Downs was out there.
32:06He was out there running routes in 12. And he had a top 10 usage score in my Trinity model this year,
32:12which shows that they are really prioritizing him. I thought that Tyler Warren would be a little more involved in some of that short area stuff.
32:20And so far, he hasn't really been as involved as I thought.
32:24Downs is very much a big part of this offense.
32:27And you have in our show notes, it's real.
32:30I agree. As long as he can stay on the field.
32:33I mean, he is a every week I'm playing.
32:36I have no doubt about it. That's right. As long as he can stay on the field.
32:41He had three targets on these outbreakers, which were about 10 plus yards down the field.
32:46That's good to see. Those are the type of targets he needs to continue to get because they do have to find ways to get explosive plays.
32:54Besides just like leaking him out of the backfield, which they did a couple times off motion or quick slants.
33:00I mean, I don't want to see a quick slant to Keenan Allen against inside leverage press coverage ever again.
33:06That's not looking so great right now. I want to see that a lot more to Josh Downs.
33:12And I would like to see more to Tyler Warren.
33:15We'll see. I mean, Warren has a touchdown on Sunday night, but the usage has been so like short area based.
33:21I'm not panicked about Tyler Warren, but I would like to see a more expansive route tree for him.
33:27I like get him up the seam a little bit.
33:30Get him on some more explosive stuff because right now, like I said, it's it's sacrificial X receiver Darius Slayton doing a
33:37poor man's Alec Pierce impression, you know, right off the street.
33:40And then it's downs on these explosive out cuts.
33:43That's great. But otherwise, man, like, yeah, we're going to need more.
33:46We're going to need more for for, you know, the explosive stuff, which I don't know that's going to come from Laquan Treadwell.
33:53Shout out to Laquan Treadwell, by the way, just being in the NFL.
33:57That's cool. And not fumbling that football. That would have been a disaster.
34:01But I mean, again, explosive play wise, it's going to have to be downs.
34:06I think they're going to have to get more from Tyler Warren as well.
34:10But we'll see about that. Either way, Ray, I love that we're in lockstep on Josh Downs.
34:15Yes, we are. One of our first one of our first shows we did together when we got you here in Yahoo
34:22was was was the Josh Downs love fest. So it's finally coming.
34:25We are Downs brosy. We are down with downs here on this show.
34:29You and I. We absolutely are. OK, we're going to take a quick break.
34:34We come back. We're running through more stats. You need to know.
34:37We'll get into that right after this. All right.
34:40We're back. We're continuing to talk through stats. You need to know heading into week three.
34:45Ray, what is your third data point? You've got for the people.
34:48Yeah, I feel obligated that we have to talk some rookies on the show.
34:53So let's go to our favorite position and talk rookie wide receivers.
34:56And my question to you and all the people out there, is there a wide receiver from this 2026 class that you would rather have over Cleveland Browns?
35:05Second round pick Denzel Boston. Is this the rookie wide receiver to to have here in fantasy football right now through two
35:12games, seven catches, 154 yards, two touchdowns, 17 points per game?
35:15It's only been two games, small sample size. We get it.
35:18But looking more deeper into the playing time and the allocation of snaps, Boston's has a 93% snap share, 85% route participation
35:25share versus a 67% snap share for Casey Concepcion and a 66% route participation share for KCC as well.
35:31Both have 11 targets. Boston leads in the receiving yard.
35:34Casey leads in the receptions, which was a little for me, Matt.
35:37I don't know how you felt about this offense.
35:40And we kind of know how we kind of felt about the team, but as far as the deployment of these two
35:47players, it always felt like they were going to try to do some cute stuff with Casey.
35:52They want to give him a, they want to give him a handoff, get him these quick screens and let him do
35:59his athletic stuff where Boston is just running down.
36:01Like he's doing exactly what he did at the university of Washington.
36:05He's getting down the field, post routes, go routes.
36:08He should have had two touchdowns in this game.
36:11If he would have held onto one and you know, week two, you're talking about 23% target share, 56% air yard share.
36:17This is, this is encouraging. And I don't want to get out over my skis here.
36:22Cause we're still talking about a Cleveland Browns led offense by the Sean Watson.
36:26Yeah. But for what you paid, if he were on waivers, he's down there.
36:31Maybe it's another game that you have to see, but he's been by far the best rookie receiver in this class.
36:37And that's not saying a bunch cause none of them are doing much of anything, but what are your thoughts on Boston and in the play?
36:45And more importantly, the deployment and how they're using them, because it doesn't feel like they have anybody else on the team that can.
36:52That's at least been deployed in a way to do the type of stuff that he's doing.
36:57They're not sending Casey down the field to that degree.
37:01They're not doing Jerry Judy's not involved. Harold Fannin's role is a little bit different and they cannot run the football, Matt.
37:07So what are your thoughts on, on Boston and this role, the usage?
37:11Do you think this is real? Yeah. I mean, I certainly think this is a real for Denzel Boston.
37:17I was a Denzel Boston fan. Almost, almost like he looks like maybe like Bud Light, Mike Evans.
37:22I wonder if anybody said that diet Coke, Mike Evans.
37:25I wonder if anyone said that over the course of the offseason.
37:29Somebody, somebody, somebody. I don't know. I don't know.
37:32I don't know. We'll see. But yeah, he's run around on 96% of the dropbacks, which leads all rookies by a good bit.
37:39Carnell Tate is second. You wouldn't know it, but he's second by 89%.
37:43Then Caleb Douglas at 85%. Mekhi Lemon, 81%. Nobody else.
37:46Bryce Lance, 75%. Talk about sacrificial. 6.6% targets per route.
37:4975% route participation there. Yeah. And it's obviously Casey Concepcion's got the 11 targets, the 10 catches, the short area stuff.
37:55That's what we've seen from him so far. Man, Jerry Judy, 74% of the routes, 0.53 yards per route run.
38:01I mean, he's let's, let's just trade Jerry Judy and see what happens.
38:05You know, Isaiah Bond had a catch. Like, I mean, I'd like to see just more of the young guys, Jerry Judy.
38:12I'm not just, just not sure like what the point is here.
38:16Cause Boston has been great and he's been doing it Ray as like a pure X receiver.
38:21I charted his week two for reception perception, 98% snaps on ball for Denzel Boston.
38:25I actually think there's even more to get from him.
38:28If you can move him around the formation and like, get him some slot looks, get him some free releases.
38:35But the fact he's been this good right away as just pretty much a pure X.
38:39I mean, I think the, this is a really great sign for, um, for, for Denzel Boston.
38:45Certainly right now he will be the highest ranked rookie at the current moment.
38:49Things can definitely change. I actually want to ask you though.
38:52I mean, dynasty perspective, I have him as one, two, three, four, five, my fifth ranked rookie in dynasty right now.
38:59I still have behind Tate Casey, Jordan Tyson on IR, Makai Lemon.
39:02Then it's Boston. I could hear an argument that he's better than some of those guys ahead of him.
39:08Um, you know, I mean, he's just been really impressive so far.
39:12Yeah. I, I, I, I think I would have him ahead of a couple of those guys.
39:17I'll just say this. I know this segment is not on Jordan Tyson, but if he can come back with how they're
39:24using Devon Vele and Bryce Lance just could be a late season kind of league winning type, uh, wide receiver for the new Orleans saints.
39:31I want to take this a step further, Matt.
39:34And, and this does not at all impact how I feel about Casey Concepcion, because I think he, the Browns have a
39:41good core, but with him, Fannin and Boston have a good core.
39:44I think there's a chance. This is the Browns leading receiver this year.
39:48Like we're talking about, you know, a couple of weeks.
39:51Can he do it? We'll see. Rookie walls always happen.
39:54Rookie walls hit, but they're not using Judy. There are no other ancillary, uh, options here.
39:59And if I go back to when Deshaun Watson was good, which is, you know, you were getting ready for your wedding
40:06at this point in time, you know, five, six years ago.
40:09Uh, before that. Yeah. But before that, like the pandemic.
40:12Okay. Okay. So I'm trying to think, I don't have the data, but I Watson downfield.
40:17I mean, whether it was Will Fuller, Deandre Hopkins, like that's, he was, he was pretty successful at doing that.
40:23It was the best we've seen Watson play versus a pass funnel defense, albeit.
40:28But I think that there's a chance right here.
40:30And here's the thing with Boston. This isn't just a, what did he do last Sunday?
40:35The drum beat for him has been pretty consistent with what he does, what he was doing throughout training camp.
40:41It's translating to the football field. Now I'm just saying that there's a chance that this is your Browns leading receiver here in 2026.
40:49No, it's I I'm with you on this one.
40:51Uh, the, the drum beat has been there. He has, uh, 154 yards right now.
40:56Harold Fannin is in second place with 75. So, I mean, he's got more than double, uh, the second place player on
41:03the team right now in terms of receiving yards.
41:05So very likely to be the leading receiver on the team.
41:09Casey Concepcion has 71. I think that it just, to me, I want to be buying stock of these guys definitely from a dynasty standpoint.
41:16And yeah, I mean, look, Deshaun Watson played well in week two.
41:20I think the Tampa Buccaneers defense is not good, but, uh, Deshaun's been really good off play action so far this year.
41:27And the fact that Boston has been that guy for him certainly is going to be, uh, you know, a big part of that.
41:34Now, the one thing to watch this week playing the Carolina Panthers, Panthers obviously do have an imperfect defense.
41:40We'll put it at that based on what the bears did to them in week one.
41:45But the bears did a lot of that damage with like the short area slot stuff, not necessarily throwing into the teeth of the outside corners.
41:52Cause that's where the defense is the strongest with JC Horn and Mike Jackson.
41:57So I'm going to keep an eye on there.
41:59Uh, if you're playing, just if you're playing, uh, Boston this week, but again, I'd like them.
42:05I'd like to see them move Boston around more.
42:07I think there's even more to get out of him there.
42:11Okay. My third data point heading into week three, I want to talk about the Jaguars run game and whether Basial Tootin
42:17is kind of going a little overlooked right now.
42:20Can Tootin get Scootin? I mean, these guys are just crushing it this week.
42:24Jaguars rank third in yards after contact per rush on their running back runs and third in rushing success rate.
42:30They rank eighth in explosive rushing rate on running back runs yet.
42:34They only rank 29th in yards before contact per rush.
42:37So actually not getting a ton of push there, but Tootin is making things happen from an after contact perspective.
42:43He has a 60% share of the running back touches, which is 18th at the position feels about right based on where
42:50he kind of stands from a fantasy standpoint, but 40% of the touches inside the five, a hundred percent inside the two.
42:57Like he's been the goal line back ahead of Chris Rodriguez.
43:00He only has three targets on the season that does lead to backfield, but it is only three targets.
43:06Ray, I mean, again, I don't know that like he's running back one or has that kind of ceiling with his lack
43:12of past game usage, but I look at the right back landscape, but I'm feeling pretty comfortable having Basial Tootin as a running back two right now.
43:21Yeah. You said, is he going kind of like overlooked or under the, I think so.
43:26Even still. And part of the reason why is Jacksonville for whatever reason is still using what I call, they're just gnats, right?
43:33Um, Amir Abdullah getting three touches, LaQuint Allen being on the field for passing down work, Chris Rodriguez.
43:38But I think, and I've got no, we'll see how it plays out.
43:42I think that will work itself out as we get through the season, right?
43:46The fact that Tootin is still the main guy, he's been very successful so far.
43:51Denver was a tough task for him and he was still, you know, the numbers are still what they are right now.
43:5813 carries, 65 yards. You want to see a little more in the receiving game.
44:02No one's, it felt like we went from really high on Tootin at the beginning of the off season to it cooled
44:09off a little bit when people were worried about Rodriguez.
44:12And now that we're in season, he still seems to be a little bit, I don't want to say overlooked, but because
44:19he hasn't had a 20 touch week, he hasn't had a monster performance, he's still obtainable.
44:23So I like him more now than I thought I would earlier in the off season.
44:28And this Jags team, despite them, you know, Trevor Lawrence having a down game versus Denver on the road.
44:34I think you're very much on the, on the, on the spot on here with, with Basil Tootin.
44:40And I think it gets better as we move throughout the season as well.
44:44That's my guess as well as like, this is still a young player has a chance to really consolidate and kind of
44:51eschew some of those gnats that you're kind of talking about there.
44:54Schedule is a little tricky before their week seven by, they're going to go to Europe for two games and then they'll
45:01go on by, but goes Patriots this week, Bengals in week four.
45:05I know it's like, Oh, Bengals, but man, Dexter Lawrence looks fantastic.
45:08Like their run defense, I think is going to be significantly improved so far this season.
45:13Then the Eagles, then the Texans, then again, that week seven by, they come back with some matchups in the next set
45:20of games, one against the Colts, two games against the Titans.
45:23So maybe like Tootin is a guy that is a running back two for now.
45:28And then really ascends in that back half of the year.
45:31I can certainly tell myself that story. Would love to see the offensive line play a little bit better, but Tootin has been playing pretty well here.
45:39And it's probably somebody that's like a decent trade candidate.
45:42If you want, like you're doing a package type deal, have them as a running back too.
45:47If you're at that position, Ray agreed, agreed. And like you said, once we stop using four running backs, I think, I
45:54just think that that will work itself out, that we're not in week eight, nine in a mirror doula is, is getting
46:01extra like those, those three, four touches. They matter in the grand scheme of the offense.
46:06So hopefully that works itself out as we progress further down the season.
46:10All right, let's get into your fourth data point here.
46:13We're going to the quarterback position on this one.
46:15Yeah. Let's, let's talk QBs in general. You know, we've got to kind of have these overall philosophical conversations.
46:21And right now through two weeks of this fantasy football season, quarterback rushing is down.
46:26Matt QB rushing is down right now about 15% of the rushing yard, uh, rushing yard total is down.
46:32We were about at 1400 rushing yards from the quarterbacks at this point in time last year.
46:37And we're right around 1200 yards. Carries are down rushing touchdowns are down 15%, 10%, 17%.
46:42So when you're talking about fewer attempts, slightly worse efficiency yards per carry is down where the quarterback position, we spent a
46:48lot of time in the off season talking about this onesie group of QBs and how impactful a rush is versus a pass.
46:55Especially when you're talking about some of those, the Bo Nix is the Malik Willis is of, of the group.
47:01But if QB rushing is down and they're not scoring those points, it makes those pocket passers and the ones who are
47:08going to stand in the pocket and give you three touchdowns a little more valuable.
47:13When you look at the top five quarterbacks right now in the NFL and rushing yards through week two, number one, Kayla Williams.
47:20We've lost him for a little bit of time.
47:22Number two, Jayden Daniels. We've lost him for some time.
47:25Then you've got Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Drake May with 64 yards.
47:29Neither Allen, Lamar or May are over 100 rushing yards.
47:32So as I'm sitting back right now and I'm looking around at the Staffords, the Brock Purdy's versus, uh, you know, a
47:39Dak Prescott, these guys who aren't going to run, but they're just going to stand in the pocket and give you two to three touchdowns per week.
47:47Like, I don't know. I don't know where we're at with this Konami code quarterback.
47:52Shout out rich rebar. If, if, if QB rushing is just, is down, I don't know if that's a byproduct of injury
47:59or what, but quarterback rushing is down and a little bit interesting to see this data, Matt.
48:04I think so much of it is like just the design runs are not effective right now against modern defenses and so
48:10much at least watching it on tape. That's what it feels like to me.
48:15And, you know, so much of, um, do you like, like, I feel like when I'm watching teams right now, the teams
48:21are using a lot of like eye candy with motion, uh, less, I mean, obviously still in the past game, of course,
48:28but especially in the run game, like playing linebacker in the NFL right now is absolutely a hell.
48:34Um, and yeah, Hayden Winks has the data here to show that like, yeah, QB runs down so far as well.
48:40It's some of the stuff you're bringing up here too.
48:43To me, it just feels like teams have the beat on any of the option stuff.
48:48Some of the design runs other than, you know, sneaks and the tush push or whatever, but yeah.
48:53And maybe it's also injury stuff too. I mean, everybody, everybody knows like if you're a coach and your quarterback gets hurt
49:00on a design run, you're just going to get lit up.
49:03Right. And so many of these quarterbacks now, it, we've got so many quarterback injuries across the league, you know, it's just,
49:10maybe there's, maybe there's something to that as well.
49:13So yeah, man. Um, I think you're like the best, what's, what's kind of one, what's your theory on this?
49:19And two, what's the like takeaway? Like, what do we do with this information?
49:23My biggest takeaway is I'm not as interested in streaming the Malik Willis for upside.
49:28Not right now. And I'm just, I'm just using Malik as the example because he's the one, one of the QBs where
49:34you're like, Hey, if he doesn't pass for a lot, as long as he runs around, we're good.
49:40But some of these pocket passers, like if you've got an environment where a quarterback for day, I can get two touchdowns
49:47out of Kirk cousins this week versus let me start, you know, Bo Nix, who's launching interceptions and also not running.
49:53Like it just, it's something that I'm monitoring in the tweet that Hayden put up.
49:58It's the lowest since 2012, those design Russian temps.
50:00I'm just looking on the bar graph. It's the lowest in over a decade for the, the, the designed and called QB runs.
50:07Yeah. We're at 26 right now here in 2026.
50:10That's the lowest since what we got 30 in 2017, 32 in 2014.
50:14I, I, maybe it is the fact that these offensive coordinators are saying Matt, them scrambling around or me calling these design runs.
50:21It's, it's just not worth me losing my quarterback for the season for half the year.
50:26It's, you know, I love Caleb and you don't change how he plays, but we were praising him for how fast he
50:33was running around and all the off script stuff.
50:35And you can never coach that out of a player.
50:38But as I'm moving forward, I'm just maybe these pocket passers who aren't the Konami code guys are a little undervalued here
50:45in fantasy football, the Staffords and the DAC, the purdys, et cetera.
50:49Well, and you look at just the teams that are awesome from an explosive rushing perspective, because that's, that's the thing.
50:55Like teams want explosive runs. They don't want to just get like, they want to keep a success rate.
51:01Sure. But the teams like the Rams, the bills, the, the bears, the Broncos Titans.
51:06That's, that's funny. Colts chiefs. Like again, if you're, if you're the chiefs, great example, what would you rather like?
51:12Like, yeah, we're going to take some explosive runs from Patrick Mahomes when he's scrambling.
51:16That's great. But your odds on getting an explosive play is much higher.
51:20If it's like Ken Walker under center, you know, run it right down at you to use a different example.
51:26I know they're not on that list of teams that I just ripped off there, but you know, if you're the Baltimore
51:33Ravens, what are you more likely to get you an explosive run?
51:37Like a design, you know, Lamar Jackson run that they're going to maybe see coming if it's in the gun, the whole deal, or, Oh, what?
51:44How about actually it's, it's Derek Henry just getting under center and ripping that thing right at you.
51:50So I think that's a big part of it too.
51:53Teams want explosive plays. And right now it feels like the under center run game being back.
51:58That's where teams are finding their explosive rushing plays.
52:01Not so much with the quarterback design game. So I agree with you.
52:05Like a Jared golf pocket passer, maybe like on someone's fantasy team in the Yahoo analyst league.
52:10We'll talk about that here in just a moment.
52:13You know, that can be the right answer for you here.
52:16Okay. I want to talk about two teams for my fourth data point that are doing the right things from a schematic
52:23standpoint, but not getting, not getting the right results.
52:26Okay. Top two teams in total routes with motion at the snap, according to fantasy points data are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
52:32with 144 and the Los Angeles chargers with 127.
52:35And yet Ray, those offenses have not been all that good to start this year.
52:40If looking at my just kind of combined offensive efficiency metrics, the bucks haven't been terrible.
52:44They're 18th. A lot of that is because they're sixth in rushing EPA and 30th in drop back EPA.
52:50So not really helping the past game. Meanwhile, the chargers are the 30th ranked offense in my efficiency metrics.
52:56Do you know who they're sandwiched between Ray Garvin, the LA chargers with all this talent and Mike McDaniel, they are sandwiched
53:03between the Cleveland Browns and the abomination of the Pittsburgh Steelers office.
53:06They're just a couple of spots ahead of the Cooper rush Atlanta Falcons.
53:10That's how bad it's gotten for the LA chargers and their wide receivers.
53:14Ibuka is wide receiver 34 in points per game, loud McConkie 20 in points per game.
53:19I really don't think anyone else is just right there ready to step up offensively.
53:24You know, I think like if it's going to happen, it's going to be one of these two guys.
53:29Are these by low wide receivers or are you staying away from them?
53:33Like, do we give these units some time to get it and figured out?
53:38Like, what are we, what do you think about Ibuka?
53:41What do you think about Lad McConkie so far?
53:43The usage for both of these two are still fine.
53:47It's, it's not quite where I want it to be.
53:50And I give Lad a little bit of grace because he's not a hundred percent right now.
53:55He's out there playing in a, a flak jacket, right?
53:58Trying to run around and do that stuff. And then Emekig Buka having to deal with whatever Zach Robinson is doing and whatever he's calling.
54:05But the common thread are these new offensive coordinators.
54:08So I think both of your questions can be true.
54:11I think we need to give both of them a little bit of time.
54:15I would be buying low on both wide receivers because they are their team's primary options.
54:20And when and if things get clicking, the offense will flow through these guys with Lad in particular, two tight ends on IR.
54:27QJ, I don't know what Mike McDaniel has done to Quentin Johnson.
54:31I thought he was on this, you know, mini Ascension ladder getting better and better.
54:36Now he's just back to the same QJ that we kind of thought he was early on.
54:41He's a non-factor inside the offense. We talked about it on Sunday night.
54:45Omari on Hampton is, Hampton is just run and smash forward juggernaut style.
54:49He's not making anybody miss. There's nothing creative to his rushing style.
54:52And then in the case of Tampa Bay, I mean, Baker's got to be better.
54:57Baker has to be better. They got into this thing where Ted Hurst was just getting peppered with targets, inaccurate ones.
55:03But it's just let's throw the ball to Ted Hurst time and time again.
55:08I do think that both of these guys have this, I don't want to say stink on them, Matt, but people in
55:14fantasy are just like, I want them to be so much better right now.
55:18And if these two aren't great right now, then I don't want them.
55:22They stink. I knew it. Buka wasn't good. Look at the second half.
55:26And I'm more on the line of you. I want to give them some time to try to figure this stuff out offensively.
55:33But these are the team's two primaries. It's not Kate Odden.
55:37It's not Ted Hurst. It's not QJ. It's not a Rondae Gadsden.
55:40So am I jamming both of them into a lineup because I have to when you only have to start a couple of wide receivers?
55:48Maybe not. Maybe you have some better options. But I don't think that the book and the story is closed for either of these two wide receivers.
55:56Not yet. No way. Yeah. Yeah. Great point about Ladd.
55:59Obviously with the flak jacket. Remember Emeka Buka is coming back from a toe injury that cost him some time in training
56:06camp to maybe still feel in the effects of that as well.
56:10I just thought the film has been pretty good on a Buka and he's playing in the role that I wanted him
56:16to play as the movement Z receiver. You're right.
56:19The Bakers just got to be better. The offense has to coalesce under a new play caller just as the same as in L.A.
56:26I would say with the Buka if you want to buy maybe don't do it this week because they're playing the Minnesota Vikings.
56:33Brian Flores. That makes me a little bit nervous.
56:36Then the schedule does lighten up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
56:39They have the Packers, the Cowboys, the Steelers, the Panthers, the Falcons, and the Bears before their week 10 bye.
56:46They come back to play the Lions, the Panthers, and the Chargers on the other side of that bye.
56:51So I think maybe wait until week four to trade for Emeka Ibuka, maybe not before this Minnesota Vikings game.
56:57So Harmon, and quickly, I'm looking at the usage for both of these two teams.
57:02And I can tell you right now that the bigger issue, Lad and Emeka Ibuka are the only two over the league
57:09median regression line, the only two pass catchers on side of both of these offenses that are producing based on what you
57:15should be expected based on the usage. It's only those two guys.
57:19But the bigger thing that I see when I'm looking at this on Trinity is everybody else is below the line, which
57:26lets me know that both Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield, the both of them are not playing good football right now.
57:32Right? Like full stop. If they play better, those two should be fine.
57:36If they don't, these two will be marginal. They won't kill you, but they're not going to live up to that expectation.
57:43Baker and Herbert have to be better. Yep. I think, I think it's a hundred percent right.
57:48And look, I know we get into this poison place with quarterback discourse.
57:52It's like, well, what they are now, that's all that matters.
57:55Well, we've seen Justin Herbert play good football before.
57:58We've actually seen Baker Mayfield play good football before.
58:01Maybe one of those good stretches is coming right around the corner.
58:04Okay. Let's get into your fifth and final data point here heading into week three.
58:09Yeah. You touched on this a while ago and I'm back to usage.
58:13I'm back to personnel. I'm back to offensive scheme.
58:16This under center thing, right? When you're looking at the teams who are going under center, not living in gun and doing some different things.
58:23And it will probably feed into your, your final data point.
58:27Look at the top teams in the NFL and where they currently rank as far as points per game, San Francisco, 60% under center.
58:34They're tied for fourth in points per game. So far this season, the Buffalo bills under center with Josh Allen first in score.
58:41And you've got Seattle up there at 17th, a little bit lower, but very creative type offense.
58:46And if you've watched Brian flurry, I continue to give him credit for how they're doing things inside that offense, where they're
58:53lining up their receivers in the backfield motion and Russell into the backfield as a fullback, but you go down the list,
58:59the Raiders right now tied for 10th in scoring in the NFL, the lions, the Rams, the bears.
59:05No, it was a down week last week. Patriots that some of this is factored in that week one kind of stinker
59:12versus Seattle, the Colts and the Vikings. I'm looking at all of these teams who have their quarterback under center and the success that they're having.
59:20And it makes me want to pay more attention to some of that stuff and maybe some of the ancillary pieces inside
59:26of these environments, because they're just creating more opportunities for their playmakers, for the running backs first and second, second running backs, right?
59:33RB one, RB two, your primary reads, your first read target share, and then your secondary wide receiver.
59:39So when I'm looking at the Niners and the bills and the Hawks and the Raiders and the lions, I, I want
59:45to buy into some of these offenses that are kind of taking it back to old school football, get under center.
59:52Let's keep defenses on us. Let's not allow them to just tee off on us down here, you know, in shotgun formation.
59:58Like, like we see a lot happening with Cincinnati when they're, they're in gun.
60:03You just, I know what you're going to do.
60:05Uh, you're either going to hand it off to this running back and he's going to go this way, or you're going to drop back the pass.
60:14And I'm sending the house at you really, really interested in this sort of, I don't know if it's a turning point
60:20in the NFL, but a lot of creative creativity coming from these play callers having their quarterbacks under center this year.
60:27Yeah, it really has. I mean, it, again, it comes back to that looking for the explosive plays in the run game.
60:34It's just easier to do that under center than it is out of the gun.
60:38And so you want to blend the run in the past game.
60:42So teams don't know what's coming. Like that's where we are right now with the NFL.
60:47And I do think a lot of these under center teams are some of the offenses that are good and really productive.
60:53I mean, some of them were obviously that you mentioned from your list here, like Patriots, we know they've just got a
61:00lot of crap going on right now. It is what it is.
61:04The Vikings, obviously they're dealing with a quarterback injury.
61:06Carson Wentz there, but I mean, yeah, some of these teams like Niners, Buffalo, Seattle, by the way, Seahawks are crazy.
61:13Jackson Smith and Jigba has a 44% target share.
61:16Rashid Chahit has an 18% and Cooper Cup has a 10% target share.
61:19It's just like, it's the JSN show and that's it.
61:23Keep it moving. Log out the whole deal. I mean, I don't know what else to say.
61:28Some of these other teams. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, but when you're looking at it and you're right with them, but when
61:34you're looking at Buffalo and the Raiders with Trey Tucker, I'm just, I'm thinking about the options inside of these offenses, right?
61:41Like, oh, Trey Tucker. Okay. Indianapolis. We talked about Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, if he can get things going, Jonathan Taylor.
61:47Like these are offenses where you kind of want multiple pieces of, I'm not saying everyone, but even Buffalo, for instance, right?
61:54You want some DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, hell, maybe even Keon Coleman is viable depending on some injury stuff there.
62:01But these are pieces of offenses that you want to be invested in for fantasy football, by and large, outside of Seattle.
62:08Outside of Seattle, you just, you kind of want whoever's running the ball that week and Jackson Smith and Jigba.
62:14But you get the point with the rest of this list.
62:17I mean, the Niners, Matt Harmon, Kittle, great. Mike Evans, when he's on the field, solid.
62:22Debo's a contributor. Christian McCaffrey, Kalen Black. You want pieces of these offenses for sure.
62:26Absolutely. Even like for the Bills, Khalil Shakir has been used on some more downfield routes this year than usual.
62:33It's going to take the right matchup. And like, you know, you would think that the Lions would have been the right matchup.
62:40And he had a couple of explosive plays, but not a big fantasy day.
62:44So maybe there's something there. Yeah, the Raiders definitely like Trey Tucker.
62:47I know, you know, we put out the video with Scott.
62:51People like, oh, we've seen this before. We've seen this before.
62:54Yeah, I get it. But at the same time, he's being used more on the right routes this year, like these big
63:01post routes, big breaking routes down the football field.
63:04Like that's what this offense wants to do. And they want to do that from under center.
63:09So, yes, you know, you are big play chasing your big play hunting.
63:13But, you know, that's a big part of it, too.
63:16The Lions, you know, Jamison Williams. Like, I know Jamison Williams has not had a good game so far this season.
63:22He's not going to never have a good game again.
63:25So if you can stomach the fact that he's going to put duds in your lineup and he's going to make mistakes, he's like he's a volatile player.
63:34He is. I don't care how much the team gases him up in training camp or how much his biggest truth is gas him up in the offseason.
63:42The reality is, like, he's a volatile player and he's going to have a big game at some point because they get
63:49under center and they launch that thing. And Jamison Williams is a part of it.
63:53So, yeah, if you're looking for an ancillary piece, I mean, Devontae Adams, like he gets a promotion to the one receiver spot.
64:00And what do you know? Big explosive plays down the football field from the L.A.
64:05Rams. So, yeah, I mean, some of these teams, I mean, the Bears, like they're doing the right things from a conceptual standpoint.
64:12It just hasn't gone to the guys we want.
64:15Doesn't mean that, Ray, it's never going to go to those guys ever again.
64:19And just I want you to give people some words of encouragement to be patient, right?
64:24Like they are doing the right things. It's not like they're doing like, what are they doing?
64:29This offense looks a mess. Is this just part of football working itself out, Matt?
64:34Like is that kind of what's going on here?
64:36Because this happened with Terrence Ferguson week one. He was doing all the right things, but the production wasn't there.
64:42And then finally, once the volume flowed his way, it's like, oh, look at that.
64:47We got a top five wide receiver, a tight end on the week in Terrence Ferguson.
64:52Yeah, I will say that some of the stuff Ben Johnson did in week two was a little bit.
64:58All right, what are we doing here? You know, there's like a play early on where I think they had Roshan Johnson
65:04and DeAndre Swift as the two outside receivers. Like we don't need some of that.
65:09We don't need Khalif Raymond. Like we got to get the young guys to go.
65:14But at the same time, again, it's a long season.
65:17There's a lot of stuff we don't know. I think the Colson Loveland thing in week two was just like, hey, they
65:23decided he was going to be the one to block more, you know, and it just it didn't work out that that didn't go well for them.
65:32I think they maybe outsmarted themselves on that one.
65:34But I mean, with like Luther Burden and Roma Dunze, these guys are also coming back from camp injuries.
65:40Luther, like throughout camp, he had the groin injury.
65:43I don't think watching him through the first couple of weeks, he's played all that well in isolation.
65:48That doesn't mean I think he's never again. He's never going to play well again, but he needs to like play a
65:55little bit better to get those opportunities back. Rome is coming back from a camp injury at the end of it, like right before the season starts.
66:03He was a part time player in week one back to being a full time player.
66:08Like I think it's going to happen for all of these guys.
66:12Obviously, I don't know about the case kingdom against the Eagles week, but eventually like maybe a post week four by on these guys is the right move.
66:20I would just be shocked if we go throughout the course of the season and all three of these guys are just useless.
66:27I think there's no shot that that happens. Yeah, I don't buy it either.
66:31I don't buy that either. I don't buy it either.
66:35Our last two points here do dovetail well together, so I'll get into my fifth one.
66:39I wanted to throw out the top 10 play action passers so far in terms of adjusted yards per attempt, and you're
66:46not going to be surprised to see a lot of, oh, we'll do 11.
66:50A little special here for Daniel Jones. Would have been a neater.
66:54I don't know why I pasted the 11th one in there, so that's on me.
66:59But anyways, yeah, Daniel Jones is in the mix here too.
67:02There's going to be a lot of overlap between the teams we just talked about in my list because you want to
67:09get under center and you want to launch that ball off play action.
67:13These are the most effective, not volume, but effective play action passers so far in adjusted yards per attempt.
67:18Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Drew Locke. By the way, Drew Locke is the only quarterback to complete 100% of his play action
67:25attempts who's thrown more than five play action passes this year.
67:28I think it's 16 passes he has completed every single one of them.
67:32It really helps to have Jackson Smith and Jigua, and I think Drew Locke is just executing the offense really well.
67:39You're right. Give a shout out to Brian Flory on that one.
67:42Jordan Love, Bryce Young, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts. Again, not a lot of volume, but he's been effective when doing it.
67:49Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones. Again, if you combine these two lists together, like the under center and the
67:55play action, this is where you can find some sleeper receivers.
67:59I mean, the two guys at the top of the list here, Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins.
68:04If you were brave enough, you played Rashad Bateman or Trey Tucker in week number two, because guess what?
68:10This team is getting under center. They're going on the play action stuff, and they're launching it downfield to two guys who run these vertical routes.
68:18And so that's how you can kind of find these like sleeper wide receivers right now.
68:23Well, you know what I think when I see this list?
68:26Here's what I think. Zay Flowers, Rashad Bateman. I think Trey Tucker when Brock Bowers is healthy.
68:31Jackson Smith and Jigba, no brainer. Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tedaroa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Dalton Kincaid, and all the other receivers in Buffalo.
68:38Devontae Smith, who we talked about earlier. CeeDee Lamb, Denzel Boston, Jalen Waddell, Josh Downs.
68:43Like I'm looking at this, and 60% of this list is on that under center turning stuff into points.
68:48It's like there's something here, right? And it's only two weeks in, so we're not trying to make wholesale, this is how
68:55it's going to be for the remainder of the season.
68:58And every receiver we talked about today is going to smash week in and week out because they're running play action or they're under center.
69:06But these things matter. It makes it less predictable for the defense when you've got a threat to run the ball.
69:12When you do execute play action, it opens up those downfield shots, and it creates those sleeper receiver opportunities for the Trey Tucker to have the big week.
69:21For Rashad Bateman to insert into that number one wide receiver role.
69:24The NFL changes, right? Like it's always an ever-evolving game.
69:27And sometimes you just go back to doing some of the most basic stuff from the beginning of football time, which is
69:34hike the ball, get the ball, fake it to the running back, and you open up stuff down the field.
69:40This is, I'm encouraged by some of the narrative-driven receivers that I talk about by this list combined with some of the
69:47other stuff that we've talked about on the show today.
69:50And I think a lot of other people should kind of take these things as other data points when you're making a
69:57decision, when you're thinking about going after a player on waivers or starting somebody.
70:01Like who's doing some of the more creative stuff in the NFL to create those explosive plays?
70:06You know, the funny thing is too, like some of these teams that we're talking about that are under center and play
70:13action, they actually can't even run the ball. Like some of these teams, yeah.
70:17I mean, the Ravens first in rushing success rate on running back runs.
70:21Obviously, like the Lions we talked about previously, the Chiefs and, you know, the Rams are up there.
70:26The Bills are up there. They're sixth in rushing success rate.
70:30Somebody seems like the Packers, Jordan Love is crushing it on play action.
70:34They're 19th in rushing success rate. Their run game stinks.
70:37The Browns are 32nd. Their run game stinks. Like you actually don't, the stats have always borne this out that you don't
70:44actually have to have a great run. Like it certainly helps, but having a great run game is not, you don't, it's
70:50not like you, it's not usually exclusive to then being a really good play action team, but the Packers are a great example of this.
70:58Like they're actually can't even use play action at the rate that they normally would.
71:02Their rate of play action is down this year because their run game stinks.
71:07And because they're in these like really crazy game scripts, like they've been the first two weeks against the Vikings, against the
71:13Jets, but it's still benefiting Jordan Love. It is still benefiting Matthew Golden and Christian Watson.
71:18Pretty crazy too. If you look at the targets per route run, like some of these teams we talked about, JSN target on 44% of his routes.
71:26Rashid Shahid is 21%. Amon Ross St. Brown is like 33%.
71:30James Williams, 16%. Chris Olave, 25%. Devon Vele, 17%.
71:33There's a healthy gap between one and two, much less you go down to three.
71:37Jacoby Myers, 6%. Parker Washington, 39% targets per route.
71:40Huge disparity. If we're talking about the one to the three, then there's a team like Green Bay where Watson is 27.9%.
71:47Matthew Golden's 26%. Jane Reed, obviously injury caveat here.
71:4926% targets per route. Like it's actually pretty tight concentration there, but now you remove Reed.
71:54You remove Reed, unfortunately, because of the injury, Watson and Golden, man, they're going to just, they're just going to be a,
72:01it might be a little volatile, might be a rocky ride, but it's going to be a big like play ride here in the Packers offense.
72:09You nailed it. I'm looking at these quarterbacks and there's a lot of concentration here.
72:13Philadelphia, it's going to Smitty or, or Don Tavion Wicks.
72:16Green Bay right now. I love Tucker Kraft, but it's two primary passing options inside of that offense.
72:22You just, you start looking at those quarterbacks and you can nail down concentration to make you at least make you feel
72:29a little bit better about some decisions that you have to make on Sunday.
72:33Yeah. Right. It makes you feel a little bit better knowing.
72:36Okay. I know Bryce Young with McMillan and Cochran, they're commanding over 50% of the opportunity inside of this offense.
72:42Like if I got to pick one, it's one of those two guys.
72:46I'm not playing around with anybody else. And I know if I'm debating on an offense, it's kind of spreading it around versus more concentration.
72:54With this combined with under center, combined with static score, creativity, RP, Trinity, all of these things, you put them all together
73:00and you should have a clearer picture as clear as you can going into Sunday to make some decisions for your lineups.
73:07And that's what this is about is it's not just giving you the stats from the past week, but looking beyond that, right?
73:14Like what is happening inside these offenses to create those scoring opportunities for us in fantasy?
73:19Yeah. Yeah. And we had a full picture story there.
73:22Look at that. Tedder O'McMillan, Jalen Coker, Bryce Young, fifth best play action passer goes all the way back to the beginning stat that you had here.
73:30I mean, like, yeah, this was really a offensive creativity show.
73:34The ones that are doing it right. Guess what?
73:36Those are the ones that are printing fantasy points.
73:39So we're going to continue to chase that. And we'll actually talk about that on tomorrow's show with Nate Tice as well.
73:46So it's going to be a big ecosystem week here on the channel.
73:50We'd love to see that. Okay. For now, we're going to take a quick break.
73:54When we come back, it's the moment you've all been waiting for.
73:58It's time for a little update on the Yahoo fantasy league.
74:01We'll get into that right after this. All right.
74:04We're back. Welcome to the Yahoo fantasy league recap show, man.
74:07We got a big, big week to talk about because let's be honest.
74:11I'm two and oh, I'm two and oh in second place, scoring a bunch of points.
74:16That's right. Yeah. YouTube comments who hated my team.
74:19You were wrong so far, so far. Let me just be clear.
74:23So far you were wrong. Well, I got a little bit lucky on the Aaron Jones injury, but let's get into that.
74:29Let's start with me because it's all about me.
74:32I'm hosting the show here. Let's talk about it.
74:35I went to an oh this week with a tight victory over Dan Titus, who falls to oh and two.
74:41Oh, what a shame. He got a bounce back from his guy, Jamar Chase.
74:45It was not enough. Who's writing this? Who's writing this?
74:48Captions is still nothing super impressive with Harmon's fantasy team.
74:51There you go. Read the script. I'm pretty impressed.
74:54I'm not reading the script. I find I'm skipping the first sentence.
74:58I'm starting. He finds himself a two and oh with great showings.
75:01He's fantastic showings from James Cook, Jalen Waddell and Derek Henry.
75:05Also, yeah. Is there a pump and dump scheme in Indianapolis with Josh Downs and Tyler Warren?
75:10You're damn right it is. But I'm taking advantage of it.
75:13The only question I've got here is Justin Herbert, who scored fewer than 10 fantasy points.
75:18Not feeling great about the Justin Herbert situation. We are looking deeply into the Justin Herbert situation here, but I'm thinking I'm
75:25going to be making some moves on the bench this week and we're going to figure it out from there.
75:31I will say Dan Titus, Dak, Chase, Devante Smith, Travis Kelsey.
75:34Yeah. No, it's still not enough when you're going against a juggernaut team like mine.
75:39Also, he had DJ Moore get hurt with a negative point there.
75:42That also hurt Dan. I just want to know you playing Wix this week.
75:47You going to throw Wix in this week? I'm not going to reveal any of that to you right now.
75:53Okay. You are a competitor in this league and I'm not going to be talking about what I will or will not be doing with the squad.
76:01Okay. We're going to meet privately. Me and my team, me and my associates will be meeting me, Charlie, Peach.
76:07We're all going to get together. We're going to talk about whether we're playing Don Tavian Wix or not.
76:13I will say Aaron Jones looked pretty good. Okay.
76:16So that might be have to go back in the flex once again.
76:20How do you feel about Herbert? How do you feel about Herbert, Harmon?
76:24Well, I'm not feeling great, Ray Garvin. I'm not feeling great about Justin Herbert.
76:28That is clearly the weak link on the team.
76:31But, you know, maybe I'll pick up Bryce Young after all your great flowery discussion about how awesome Bryce Young is.
76:37Maybe I'll pick him up. But I won't be revealing anything I will or may not be doing on this program.
76:43Yeah. Keep pounding. Maybe with Bryce Young. We'll see.
76:46What we do know, Ray, is that you got off the map.
76:50You got to one and one. Again, you took it to Eric Edholm.
76:54Eric Edholm, 85.6 points. We got to do something about that.
76:57And that was with Patrick Mahomes and Trey McBride.
77:00He got great stuff from the onesie positions. Not a lot anywhere else across Eric Edholm's lineup.
77:05Meanwhile, you got off to a great start. And we get to be feeling pretty good on Thursday night when Jared Goff
77:12garbage time special plus Dalton Kincaid really took off for your team.
77:15You also have B. John Robinson. You know, maybe B.
77:18John back to B. John with Michael Penix coming back.
77:21Where are we feeling good? Where are we feeling not so good about your team right now, Ray?
77:27Yeah. You know, I feel good with Dalton Kincaid because I was slandered on this show and through the YouTube comments for starting Jake Ferguson.
77:34And what did he do? What? This is what I knew this was capable.
77:39I knew this was in the cards here. 18 points on my bench.
77:43I might be flexing two tight ends come week three.
77:46I'm not feeling good about JMO, right? Just I don't want to embrace the volatility right now.
77:51So maybe Trey Tucker, who we pumped up on the show, Jackson Dart will be going to IR or the waiver wire.
77:58But Parker Washington, Travis Achan, let me tell you something.
78:01I'm doing this without Travis Achan really getting it going.
78:04I'm doing this without, you know, a strong showing from my wide receiver.
78:08We're held one or two right now with Pickens and JMO.
78:11I feel good about my squad. I feel good with where I'm at.
78:15We'll be okay. We'll be okay. Well, you're welcome for telling you on the show that you should have played Dalton Kincaid over Jake Ferguson.
78:23Okay. You're welcome. Cause now Dalton Kincaid is in your lineup doing some pretty good things.
78:27So yeah, again, I'll, I'll take the credit for that one.
78:31Okay. Keep moving on here. Josh gets his first win.
78:34He's no longer just a tie machine here taking down Chris Allen comfortably.
78:38Chris Allen was riding so high after week one.
78:40What happened? 71 points from Chris Allen. Absolute done after having that big, massive week one.
78:45I mean, I, I, I saw Chris Allen talking a lot of junk on the streets.
78:50He was talking big cash money after week one, Matt, big stuff from Chris Allen.
78:55And he only had what two players scored three players scored double digit points with one of them being the kicker.
79:01Rough. That that's bad. That's bad. You know, we'll see what happens with this Chris Allen team.
79:06He's got some situations to deal with. He's got a Jane Reed situation, lad McConkie banged up.
79:12We'll see. Meanwhile, Josh though, despite getting nine points from Drake may and 2.5 points from his favorite player in the NFL,
79:18Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker did his thing again. Stefan digs.
79:21Great job playing. Stefan digs. Love that decision from Josh.
79:24Sam Laporta went wild. Brees hall had a nice day, you know, not a perfect lineup.
79:29You know, we had some true duds from Josh here to Drake made Saquon Barkley DK.
79:34Metcalf, but Kenneth Walker, once again, runs the show for Josh's team.
79:38Yeah. Not a lot of offensive creativity. Go back to that chart that we put up there.
79:43Those Steelers, those Browns, those Dolphins, not a lot of creativity offensively, but what I want to see will Josh Benz that DK Metcalf.
79:50He was excited about him. I want to see if he's going to plug and play Denzel Boston come week three.
79:57Yeah. I don't love the fact that he has Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf.
80:01I don't know that I want one Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver.
80:04I certainly don't know that I'd be wanting two of them.
80:08All right. Let's get into some upsets this week because we had some big ones.
80:12Max. Oh, man. The onesie master himself. Max. 133 points.
80:15Just wipes away Joel Smith. Yeah. The Joel truthers were asking for the median once again this week.
80:21I don't know that that's going to save Joel who has some issues on his team.
80:25Caleb Williams. Only eight points. He's hurt. Yeah. Jameer Gibbs is awesome.
80:29Bucky Irving really good. Not feeling so good about Malik neighbors.
80:32He did play Rashad Bateman. I mean, man, Jalen Coker, Rashad Bateman in one lineup.
80:37Is it like Joel is he's reading reception perception with the Jalen Coker, Rashad Bateman lineup.
80:42But at the same time, there's some questions here for Joel's team with Nico Collins banged up likely to miss another week.
80:49Caleb Williams now injured. Malik neighbors injured. Oh, Joel could be staring down a tough week here coming up.
80:54Meanwhile, Max. 60 combined points from Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Devontae Adams also turning back the clock with a near 36 point performance.
81:01It really didn't matter about the rest of his lineup, which definitely has some issues.
81:06Right. Michael has some issues didn't matter here in week number two.
81:10I mean, it's got issues galore. He might have 99 problems, but QB one ain't one.
81:15Josh Allen, Max took a lot of heat taking Allen early.
81:18And I guess when you have somebody that can drop a 40 burger, that makes up for a lot of single digit points here.
81:25And I'm looking at Joel's team, Marv, Nico. Oh, man.
81:28Rough, rough, rough. Max, meanwhile, has Brock Bowers coming back here pretty soon.
81:32So he's got another thing to drop in here.
81:35So if he can get a Roma Dunze emergence or something like that, I think Max's team is going to age really
81:42well here because, you know, listen, it's fun to sit here all summer and be like quarterback.
81:47It's so deep. Okay. You can just wait on the position forever.
81:50No problem. You know, it's also pretty fun when Josh Allen's on your team.
81:55He's scoring 40 points. Yeah. That's pretty great, too.
81:57That's great. Okay. Next one. Absolute stunner. Proton torpedoes.
82:00Wow. Torpedoes. Hayden's turtlenecks. I mean, people. Hey, people are very mean to Eric on the Internet after week one.
82:06Did not have a good did not have a good showing.
82:10Okay. It was not a good showing for our guy, Eric Proton, after week one.
82:14Well, he threw up the deuces to you guys and said, hey, check out 142 points over Hayden's team.
82:20Hayden was riding high after week one. He was talking about, man, my team is so good.
82:25My team is awesome. Well, it wasn't good enough to not get beat by the worst team in week one, which was Eric's team.
82:32Eric had a big game for Matthew Stafford. He had a nice game for Maury and Hampton.
82:38CeeDee Lamb went absolutely crazy. Kyle Pitts scored two points.
82:41Who cares? Eric still dominated, especially on the back of a 21 point outing from the New England Patriots defense.
82:47So I'm sure Hayden absolutely loves that. Meanwhile, on the Hayden side of things, he's in trouble at the quarterback position with Jaden Daniels.
82:54Devon Achan maybe not looking that great either. Luckily, he has Jackson Smith and Jigba.
82:59I will say, I hate myself for taking James Cook over Jackson Smith and Jigba in the draft for fear of the running back.
83:06You know, depth. I hate myself for that because I sure would like the 38 points in my lineup.
83:12They're in Hayden's lineup, but it wasn't enough to get past Eric in week two.
83:16Yeah, and I'm just I'm looking at this. I know Hayden loves Terrence Ferguson.
83:21He's probably going to auto start him over Isaiah.
83:23Likely moving forward. He's got to figure out the QB position.
83:27Look at Eric's team. You know, you know what I like the fact that he might have the best Denver running back
83:33just chilling on his bench right there with Jonah Coleman.
83:36Like nice, nice draft pickup right there for a role.
83:39Eric having Jonah Coleman. He doesn't have to battle waivers to get him because he's already got him locked up.
83:45No question about that. Okay, our last matchup of the week.
83:49The man who was in first place. The piano man himself.
83:52Scott Pianowski goes to 2-0 and hands Justin Boone his first L.
83:56Boone made a costly mistake that could have changed the entire outcome here.
84:00He played Colson Loveland over George Kittle. Colson Loveland 0.8 points.
84:03George Kittle 16 points. I know Justin Boone is in Canada right now just furious.
84:08Just furious about this decision. I know it's haunted him.
84:11I know Boone. Boone is my guy. I know he is furious about that.
84:15I guarantee you it's in the back of his mind constantly.
84:18Meanwhile, great outing. You know, it's a fine outing from Scott's team.
84:22I mean, David Montgomery, 3.4 points. Luther Burden, 4.7.
84:25Cortland Sutton. He's still hanging on to Cortland. Cortland Sutton will retire on Scott's roster.
84:29Four points here from him. Really, the biggest performance, honestly.
84:32I mean, obviously, I'm going to say Brown. But, of course, Harrison Butker gets 17 points for Scott Pianowski.
84:38So, I don't know. He didn't even play Brock Purdy, who was incredible, better than Jordan Love.
84:43So, is Scott good or is Scott lucky, Ray Garvin?
84:46You know what? This is – I feel like it's good.
84:50Yeah, I think he's a little lucky this week.
84:52I think it's fine. It's fine right here. The Cortland Sutton thing has got to come out of the lineup.
84:59But, I don't know. I guess he's waiting on Zay Flowers to get back.
85:03I look at Boone. He's got to be – I get it.
85:06Colston Loveland, it's not going to happen. But, man, Kittle, 16 points on the bench.
85:11This – I'll say this. This is a – this league, there's a lot of parity in this league.
85:17I don't think there's any dominant person in this league, despite what you may think with your 2-0 team.
85:23I don't want to hear it. I think there's a lot of parity here.
85:27I will get going. I feel confident that some others will.
85:30Matt Harmon, I just – I need you to lose this week.
85:34I'm going to just be very honest with you.
85:37We got to bring you down a few rungs here on this recap show.
85:41So, I am – I am praying on your downfall in week three.
85:45Call me a hater all you want. But we got – somebody's got to take you down this week.
85:51It's got to happen. But we got to get you – we got to knock you down a few rungs.
85:57Yeah. Well, we'll see. Yeah. Oh, Hayden Winks in the comments section, in the YouTube comments saying, most points in the league, we'll be back.
86:04Yeah, most points. We score head-to-head like men, all right, in this league, all right?
86:09That's what we're doing. None of those median points, none of that stuff.
86:13Okay, these are the standings here. 252 points for Scott.
86:16That is why he's in first place over me, the people's champ.
86:20249 points. You know, I really hate the Harmon's Deep Threats, just the default name.
86:24I just left it as the default name because I'm lazy.
86:27I actually don't like the name, but I can't change it now.
86:31It has to – I have to be Deep Threats.
86:34I mean, I don't love it, all right? It is what it is.
86:38We got to play better defense, though. 229 – 221 points allowed.
86:42We got to play better defense on my side of it here.
86:45There is no question about that. These are the standings right now.
86:49Scott's in first. I'm in second. Second, Max, the onesies, is in third.
86:53That's your 2-0 teams. Does anyone else really matter?
86:56Probably not. Looking ahead to week three, the person who's going to try to give me a loss, the Proton Torpedoes.
87:02All right? Kyle Pitts, it's time to continue to just score two points.
87:06That's what we need from Kyle Pitts. Josh is going to try to dethrone.
87:10Scott Pienowski, Ray and Boone go head-to-head. We'll see if he can get the tight end position right this week, Ray.
87:17You are hoping he does not, does Justin Boone.
87:19Eric Edholm and Dan Titus play in the someone's got to win bowl.
87:23And Joel, no easy task. Playing against a hungry – clearly a hungry.
87:27I mean, he's in the YouTube chat. Hayden's got a show.
87:31Hayden, you have a show in 30 minutes, pal.
87:33Get to work. I don't want to hear about – oh, it's hard to prep my notes for stats versus film when
87:40you're in the YouTube chat goofing around on this show.
87:43All right? You need to get to work on stats versus film.
87:47He needs to get to work trying to deliver a 0-3 start to Joel, who again is in a tough little injury spot in this upcoming week.
87:55We'll see what happens. Okay, that does it for the recap of the Yahoo Fantasy League.
88:00Shout out Hayden, man. I mean, listen, he still looks great in that turtleneck.
88:04I'll tell you that. He still looks great in the turtleneck.
88:08He looked better in his turtleneck than Jackson Dart did in his turtleneck on Monday night.
88:12No disrespect to Jackson Dart who – we're hoping for good health for Dart, but I think Hayden pulled it off a little bit better.
88:20Anyways, that does it. That does it for the recap of the Yahoo Fantasy League, and that does it for today's data dump show.
88:27Ray, absolutely electric content. We went deep on the schemes.
88:30We went deep on the data points that the people need to know.
88:34We will be back tomorrow as Nate Tice joins the show for a fun one.
88:39We are going to look at some offenses that have been impressive and some offenses who have been disappointing so far this season.
88:46That's going to be live right here at 4 p.m.
88:49Eastern on this YouTube channel. Until then, we are out.

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