0:00Big show here for you today. It is a full Justin Boone Nerds Out episode.
0:04He is diving in to strength of schedule for players at each position in the early season that you need to care about.
0:11Yeah, we're going quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, defenses, okay?
0:14Defenses with some favorable schedules that you might want to consider bumping up your rankings heading into your draft.
0:19Before we get into that, though, we do have to talk about some injury news off the top.
0:24Unfortunate update on Jeremiah Love. Love closing the loop from what we discussed yesterday.
0:28And Brees Hall, another third round running back that may be a little banged up right now.
0:33Ugh, preseason injuries are everywhere right now. This show is everywhere, though.
0:36All that and more come up on today's show.
0:39Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:42Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, and it is a hell of a day to talk ball and joining me to do
0:48just that for a truly let Boone cook type of episode here on a beautiful Monday in August.
0:53It is, of course, obviously, Justin Boone. Boone, what's going on, buddy?
0:56What's going on is an episode that is long overdue, Harmon.
0:59I sneak in schedule talk so often to this show.
1:02Normally, you break out laughing like you're doing right now because I do it quite often.
1:06I love that stuff. It's another data point to add to our decision making.
1:10Now we get to do a whole show about it, Harmon.
1:13I'm psyched. I've never seen you more glowing, honestly.
1:16You're truly glowing on the other side there. You look good.
1:19You look excited to talk early season schedules that matter.
1:21And you know what, Boone? I'm going to co-sign with you on this one today.
1:26I want to be with you on the early season schedules mattering.
1:29And I've got some data to actually back this up.
1:32But we will get into all of that later because it is going to be a packed show.
1:37We're going to go position by position for these early season schedules to take advantage of for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers,
1:43tight ends, and even wrap it up with some streaming defense talk early in the season.
1:47But before we get to all of that, reminder, very exciting news for the greater Buffalo area and the Boone Brigade as a whole.
1:54Okay. Yahoo! Fantasy Draft Weekend presented by Verse is coming to Dick's House of Sport in the Buffalo area on Saturday, August 29th, 3 to 7 p.m.
2:01I'm going to be there. Josh Norris is going to be there.
2:05Justin Boone is going to be there. After you listen to Boone break down early season schedules, and when you write them
2:11in your personal calendar, this is when this schedule is going to be.
2:14You can have Boone come and autograph that calendar for you.
2:17If that's not a sell to be there, I don't know what is.
2:21Oh, wait. Here it is. It's going to be a special live edition of the Yahoo Fantasy forecast.
2:26We're going to break down everything you need to know before your draft, answer questions in a live Q&A, prizes as well.
2:32Maybe Boone will give out a prize of his strength of schedule matrix.
2:36Okay? Maybe he'll give you a signed copy of the matrix itself.
2:39I don't know. We'll figure all that out. But what I do know is if you're getting ready for your draft, it is the place to be.
2:46Bring your league mates, your friends. Come hang out with us.
2:50We're going to see you in Amherst, New York on Saturday, August 29th at 3 p.m.
2:54I really can't wait to see how I spruce that up every single time I do that read because I want you guys to be there.
3:01So I'm going to try every single day to really sell you on it.
3:05Unfortunately, before we get into the meat of the show today, we do have some negative news to talk about in fantasy fallout.
3:11Boone got an injury, a big injury to discuss.
3:14The Cardinals didn't announce this. Adam Schefter reported this, that rookie running back Jeremiah Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain, according to sources.
3:21It's unlikely Love plays again in the preseason. I think they saw him enough in that first game.
3:26The team is hoping that he can return for the September 13th regular season opener versus the Los Angeles Chargers.
3:31Boom. Josh already took liberty to rake the Cardinals over the coals on yesterday's episode for this, calling it, what was the exact word?
3:38An idiotic? It was idiotic usage by the Arizona Cardinals.
3:41It really is that simple. That was what Josh said.
3:44So unless you want to double down on that, we can leave the flaming of the Cardinals to Mr.
3:49Josh Norris. But my question to you is, does this injury force Jeremiah Love down your fantasy rankings?
3:54Are you adjusting anything based on the news that Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain?
3:58I think we do have to bump him down a little bit here just because we know with high ankle sprains, even
4:05when a guy does come back, it can take away some of their efficiency when we're talking about running backs.
4:10We've seen it happen before where they might be impacted for a significant chunk of time once they are back in the lineup.
4:16So for me, I bumped him down now. I had him probably higher than most as sort of an early round three pick, like the 2-3 turn.
4:24And that's based on the history that we've had for running backs that are taken at the top of the draft in round one.
4:31They almost always come through for fantasy. So I felt pretty good that we would still get a solid season out of
4:37him, even if he was sharing some time with Tyler Algier, because Bajon Robinson had a pretty good season as a rookie
4:43when he was sharing time with Algier. But now with this injury, it looks like he might get off to a slow start.
4:49He could potentially even miss time at the beginning of the season.
4:52So I have to bump him down now at least to the end of the third.
4:57And that's unfortunate because I still think there's a very high ceiling for this guy.
5:01And there's some talk right now from the beat writers saying that he might become more of just like a featured option,
5:07that we're going to see more Algier because of this injury.
5:10I don't know about that. I think that's maybe a little skeptical and a little bit of speculation there.
5:15But for me, I still really like him. I will buy the dip to an extent, but I will try to maybe
5:22trade for him more in the season once he comes back from the injury.
5:25And if he has some slow showings early on, because that's what's probably going to happen.
5:30We're not going to get the best version of him at the beginning of the year.
5:34And that's unfortunate. So right now I bumped him down to RB 14, not a catastrophic drop by any means, but certainly
5:40something that we're going to have to consider. And that's going to impact him early in the year.
5:45Yeah, right now I've got him at running back 13, which is where I had him to begin with.
5:51So I haven't made an adjustment just yet. 31st overall player for me.
5:54So, you know, just a couple of spots behind his ADP, which is currently the 27th overall player.
5:59I would imagine that probably changes here on the back of this news.
6:03You know, Hayden and Josh and I were just talking about it yesterday.
6:06It's a shame that obviously on the final play that he's out there, he gets rolled up on because, man, I know,
6:13again, it was a high usage debut, which certainly you can question.
6:16Did they really need to have him out there?
6:18But he looked great out there, right? And the Cardinals offense has looked pretty good in the preseason.
6:23I know it's just the preseason, obviously, but, you know, I am admittedly Cardinals curious.
6:27So I think that this team could be a little bit better than people think, which would certainly impact Jeremiah Love.
6:33He was going to from someone that, like, you know, I kind of was uncertain on whether I'd want to draft in
6:39the third round to being like, yeah, heck yeah, I want to draft him in the third round.
6:44But, you know, this injury certainly clouds things overall.
6:47So I'm just looking at guys that are in that third round range here, Boone.
6:51You tell me some names that you would rather have over Jeremiah Love at this point.
6:55I assume Kyron Williams is somebody you would rank ahead of Jeremiah Love.
6:59I moved him ahead. I had Derrick Henry quite low compared to most.
7:03I moved Derrick Henry ahead of him. The other funny thing about this, though, Harmon, is there were a bunch of guys
7:09that I think were third round values that have all been dealing with injuries.
7:13Right. We have the Luther Burden injury that set him back and bumped his ADP down.
7:17And you have to push him down the ranks a little bit.
7:20Emeka Ibuka dealing with this toe injury. We're going to talk about him a little bit later in terms of his schedule.
7:26But you have to move him down at this point.
7:29We don't know how that's going to impact him.
7:32So there's a few guys in this range that are getting hurt by injuries and that we're going to have to figure out where to slot them in.
7:40And it's going to push them down to at least, I think, the late third.
7:44Some of them might fall into the fourth. And again, we always say this, but we're not playing for the first month.
7:50Right. We're playing to try to win a title to try to get through the fantasy playoffs.
7:54So we do want to attack some of these players if we can get discounts on them.
7:59But it's kind of a case by case basis right now because there's a few injuries where teams really just aren't giving us much information at all.
8:07No, I mean, even we are saying that he had a high ankle sprain, Jeremiah Love, because Adam Schefter reported it.
8:12But when Michael Floor was asked about it, he just said he's got an ankle because that's all they got to give us at this point.
8:20They don't have to actually give us any up.
8:22I mean, shoot. I don't know if we want to touch the hot stove on this one.
8:27But Christian McCaffrey hasn't practiced in a week for, you know, quote, tightness, whatever that means.
8:31Right. Is this 2025 or is this 2024? 2024, you know, Christian McCaffrey, I think that is something that I'm certainly going
8:37to be paying attention to over the next week.
8:40Obviously, based on my conversation with Christian at the Super Bowl, where he talked about how that was the hardest year of his career.
8:47Speaking of conversations at the Super Bowl, one quote that I can't get out of my head is CeeDee Lamb told me
8:53who dealt with a high ankle sprain last season.
8:55I mentioned him as like, man, you know, that thing can really ruin your season.
8:59He goes, that can ruin your career if you don't if you don't take care of it.
9:04Right. Obviously, I think Jeremiah Love's career is going to be just fine.
9:08But it's a reminder of what a serious injury that he is facing right now.
9:12But you mentioned one of those third round players who's dealing with an injury.
9:16Let's quickly touch on Brees Hall, who is one of those guys that I would have.
9:20This is why I've had trouble bumping Jeremiah Love too far down the running back rankings, Boone, because I can hear an
9:26argument that, yeah, Kyron Williams and him need to flip.
9:29But the next rank, the next guy in ADP at the running back position is Brees Hall, who is also dealing with a groin injury as of today.
9:37Aaron Glenn says, quote, I don't think it was a big deal.
9:40But again, teams have zero incentive to tell us the truth right now.
9:44How are you looking at Brees Hall, who, again, coming into this week, 33rd overall ADP on Yahoo?
9:49Yeah, we're recording this at 4 p.m. Eastern on Monday.
9:51I think we're going to get more information, maybe even tonight, but certainly tomorrow.
9:55He's going to get more imaging done. There's going to be more tests.
9:59Aaron Glenn might not be lying to anyone, might not be downplaying it.
10:02He might just not have that much information, right?
10:05He might be just kind of hopeful that it's nothing.
10:08And then they go in, they take a look, and it turns out it could be something more.
10:13But fingers crossed right now. I don't think we should bump him down too much.
10:17If you're drafting before you have any information, you're drafting today or something, then I might go towards some of the guys
10:23in that round that might be a little safer.
10:25You know, there's some guys like T. Higgins at the end of the third that maybe you grab him instead.
10:31But he's another guy who deals with injuries quite frequently, even though he's healthy at the moment.
10:36So it's a weird range of drafts right now.
10:38We're very hopeful that Brees Hall this year could finally get that workload and come through and have a big season.
10:44Hopefully, this is not a scenario where it's going to impact him long.
10:48If it is just a minor groin strain from the injury analysts online, they're really saying, you know, that could be one
10:54to three weeks sort of thing, which could put him back before week one.
10:58We still do have a good amount of time here before week one.
11:01Guys that are getting injuries right now could get healthy and be totally fine.
11:05Practice a full week one. So for now, not overreacting to the Brees Hall thing, though.
11:09I will say, Harmon, this morning when I saw the news, I ran out and grabbed Braylon Allen in basically every league that I've already drafted.
11:17Everywhere I could pick him up and throw him on my bench just in case.
11:21Right. Just in case we find out that maybe Hall misses week one.
11:24Maybe he's not the same. Allen gets a little more work.
11:27You get a cheap start early in the season.
11:30And in the same respect, we should also say Tyler Auger.
11:33I feel like I had him fairly high before I bumped him up a little bit now that we have this news about Jeremiah Love.
11:40So he's more to me in that like Chris Rodriguez kind of range, like low end RB three flex territory.
11:45I think I put him at RB 44 and Braylon Allen moved up to, I believe, RB 52.
11:50And my latest update that I'm going to publish shortly after we do the show here.
11:55Yeah, no question. I mean, look, you do a really good job of keeping track and ranking of all these backup running backs.
12:01And it's that time of year, man. It's time to know who these backups are.
12:05Those are two ones that we certainly need to know.
12:08In addition to Mike Washington, who we talked about on the show yesterday, making a nice case to be one of those highly ranked backups in the preseason.
12:16Just to put a bow on this conversation, Boone, and to put an exclamation point on the one of the points that you made there.
12:23The 12 players with an ADP in the third round right now, as of the last seven days on Yahoo, Trey McBride, Jeremiah Love, Devontae Smith.
12:30Jeremiah Love, Devontae Smith, at least Devontae Smith back at practice, but he's been dealing with a hamstring injury.
12:35Kyron Williams, Malik Neighbors. Obviously, it's a weekly, daily as Malik turns in terms of what he's doing in training camp, but
12:41we're kind of going in the right direction. T.
12:44Higgins, Brees Hall, groin injury. Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, Devontae Williams, Josh Jacobs, who's got about every red flag in the book at the running back position.
12:51And then Rasheed Rice is the last third round pick, who's got plenty of red flags in his own right.
12:57So, interesting round there in the third. And it obviously continues into the fourth with Emeka Ibuka, who you mentioned earlier.
13:03But, man, what a strange collection of names in the third round right now.
13:07Yeah, and coming after the second round, where I feel like almost every pick in the second round is just money, right?
13:13There's so many great picks in that round. And then you turn around and enter this minefield in the third round.
13:19And that's the funny part about fantasy. We talk about it like skill can only get you so far.
13:24There is a certain amount of luck. And we're going to follow these injury situations.
13:28We're going to monitor. We're going to come up with the best information and the best decision making that we can.
13:34It'll affect our rankings, projections, all that sort of stuff.
13:37But there will be a certain element of luck that maybe you will just hit on the right guy where the injury isn't quite as bad.
13:44And maybe we have a little more information about someone than someone else.
13:47And all of a sudden, that guy becomes an impact player this season.
13:51So, do your best. We will do our best kind of wading through all this stuff.
13:55And we'll figure it out as we go here.
13:58I wouldn't necessarily want to be drafting tonight, though, because some of these situations are just totally up in the air.
14:04And I feel like we'd be guessing at it.
14:06But, yeah, if you had your fantasy draft schedule for August 17th, maybe see if we can get a last-minute reschedule in
14:12here so we can get some clarity in the 12 picks in the third round.
14:16But with that, let's close the loop here on Fantasy Fall Out.
14:20Let's get into these early season schedules here. It is time to let Boone cook on this one.
14:25Let's start at the quarterback position. Again, buddy, I'm going to let you go here.
14:29Who do we want to highlight first that's got an early season schedule that people should know?
14:34And actually, before we do that, before we do that, sorry, let me, let me, let me, go ahead.
14:39You're probably going to do what I was going to say, but go for it.
14:43Yeah. Tell the people how the strength of schedule calculation works.
14:46How do you adjust between this year, last year, the whole deal?
14:49Peel back the process, all right, on this one, Boone.
14:52Oh, okay. Yeah, we can do it. I mean, there's so many things that go into it, right, in terms of like
14:58historical stats and how defensive perform, all that sort of stuff.
15:01Trying to update last year's information to this year, knowing that, you know, teams have changed.
15:06And we will reference some of like last year's stats in terms of fantasy points.
15:10It's allowed to different position groups, but we'll try to give context along the way where, you know, a team like the
15:16Bengals, for example, everyone was running all over them.
15:18Well, they went to great lengths to try to improve that defensive line and try to be able to stop someone on the ground this year.
15:26So we'll talk about that as we go. There's a lot of things that factor in.
15:30I think the main thing that I wanted to point out, though, is there's a reason why we're not talking just about full season strength of schedule.
15:38And that's because it's tough to predict, right? Like I do that once the schedule comes out.
15:42I put that article out. It can factor in again, like I said earlier, another little data point that you have when
15:48you're trying to make these decisions, when you're trying to have, you know, a tiebreaker between two players.
15:53But I think the most impactful thing is the early season schedule, because that part we know at least to a certain extent, right?
16:00The injuries haven't necessarily completely struck. Once we get to week 12, week 13, there's so many different situations.
16:05Players that have surprised us and broken out that we didn't know about on both sides of the ball injuries, obviously, that
16:11have impacted offenses and defenses around the league. So that's why I find it a little more difficult when people are talking
16:17about trying to figure out, you know, schedules later in the season and strength of schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
16:23I don't normally get into that too much. If you want to talk about correlation stuff, that's really good for best ball,
16:29trying to figure out which games are going to be high scoring.
16:32All of that can be important. But for me, when we're trying to figure out what could be the most impactful, it
16:39is the early part of the schedule here. And that's also because you're trying to get off to a really hot start
16:45in fantasy because it just puts you in the driver's seat.
16:48You have such a better approach the rest of the season.
16:51If you're three and one, four and oh kind of thing, as opposed to if you have a losing record, then you're trying to play catch up.
16:58Now you have to make some moves necessarily where you're just trying to win a game as opposed to being able to
17:04look ahead and plan for the fantasy playoffs or the stretch run or all that sort of stuff.
17:09So I think that is the reason today why we're going to focus on the early part of the schedule, but I
17:15will sprinkle in a little bit of talk of full season schedule.
17:19And the first guy really just lends himself perfectly to that.
17:22And that's Jalen Hurts with the Eagles. The Eagles have a great schedule this year, and we've talked all offseason long about the changes that have happened there.
17:29AJ Brown, obviously leaving Sean Mannion coming in as the new OC, what that could mean for this offense, maybe breathing a
17:36little life into an attack that kind of sputtered a little bit last year.
17:39And I think fantasy managers are a little bit down on this offense because of what it looked like last season.
17:45And yet, man, the schedule is really going to help things early on and all year long.
17:50Jalen Hurts has the easiest fantasy schedule for the full season.
17:53If you look at all of the skill position players for the Eagles for the full season, they are either number one
17:59or number two in terms of easiest schedule at their position.
18:02So they will all have the wind at their back when it comes to the opponents.
18:07And for Hurts, we have it up on the screen there for anybody listening at home.
18:11He's playing the Commanders, the Titans, the Bears, and then the Rams.
18:14And yes, that Rams matchup does look a little tougher.
18:17I will say that Hurts last year did have a pretty good game against them.
18:21He had four touchdowns against them, three through the air, one on the ground.
18:25But this defense looks like it's going to be even scarier this season with Miles Garrett there and maybe just maybe Aaron Donald joining the fray as well.
18:33So we're not necessarily looking at that week four matchup, but prior to that, going up against the Commanders, the Titans and the Bears.
18:40These are all very, very soft opponents, right? You look at the Commanders and the Titans.
18:44They're among the secondaries that we're going to want to attack this year.
18:48All three of those teams, the first three matchups were inside the top nine for most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last year.
18:54And for the Bears, I think we maybe had some hope that they'd be able to escape that kind of situation, but injuries have really struck them.
19:01Kobe Bryant out for four to six months here.
19:04He's undergone surgery. Kyler Gordon out. We're not really sure how long with this calf issue.
19:08So that could really hurt them early in the season.
19:11Really looks like Kyler is going to have a chance or sorry, Jalen Hurts is going to have a chance to get
19:17off to a very strong start here. Harmon, I totally spoiled the next player we're going to talk about, but that's all right.
19:24But it really looks like this Eagles offense is going to do a lot better than what we saw last year, even
19:30though AJ Brown's out of the mix. They've brought in some players to fill the void.
19:34I'm excited about this offense. I'm buying in. I just had my home league draft on Friday.
19:39I ended up taking Jalen Hurts because he slipped so far and we're seeing this quite a bit.
19:44We saw it in a mock draft that we did recently.
19:47Harmon, we're seeing him fall quite a bit, I think in drafts.
19:50And I don't know if it's just because of last year, just because of Brown leaving, but I'm still very hopeful.
19:56We're seeing on the screen there. This is a guy that has finished very high at the quarterback position year after year.
20:02We know the potential that he has. He could easily finish as the number one fantasy quarterback.
20:07So having the schedule to start the season and for the full year, it's just a great addition and another reason why people should be targeting him.
20:14And it's funny, like in it, just if all things were equal, I do think that there's a good chance this Eagles
20:20offense like starts slow and finishes hot just because Sean Mannion is a really young coach.
20:25He's coming in here in terms of has had a lot of experience.
20:28There's a lot to juggle here. It's a big transition over the course of what Jalen Hurts has done versus what they want to do under this offense.
20:36And yet that schedule is so appealing that I think Hurts is a guy.
20:40I mean, to me, he's like QB six. He's he's kind of at the bottom of that second tier to me, but
20:46he's somebody I am totally comfortable ending up with if the value is right in the 60s.
20:51And I just like him on the board as opposed to other players because, man, he gets off to that good start.
20:57Like you're you're already kind of cooking there. We'll have some stats in the final segment of the show to kind of
21:03back up why it's so important to get off to that hot start.
21:07But yeah, he's certainly someone to me. I think the schedule is a guy that you can break ties in favor, especially
21:13because it sounds like Sean Mannion said they're going to keep the tush push around, too, for whatever that's worth.
21:18So he could still just moonwalk into 10 rushing touchdowns, even if he doesn't from a passing efficiency standpoint, get off to a fast start.
21:25And we don't want to get into best shape of their lives kind of stuff.
21:29But I like the fact that he did show up and all the beat writers were saying he looks a lot trimmer, a lot leaner this year.
21:37And Mannion's going to ask him to kind of evolve his game a little bit.
21:41And from what I've heard so far coming out of practices, sounds like it looks like he's up to that challenge.
21:47I think he's up to that challenge as well.
21:49It's just a matter of how quick can all these other pieces get up to speed with Mekhi Lemon obviously missing so much time.
21:56I think Devonta Smith will be fine. You mentioned he's back at practice, so there's still lots of time for him to be comfortable going into the season.
22:04Dantavian Wicks sounds like he's going to be an important piece of that passing attack.
22:08Dallas Goddard, somebody who if I miss out on all my targets really at tight end, he's somebody I will scoop up
22:14quite a bit and grab him as kind of that safety net veteran who I think will have a good season this year.
22:20So the Eagles offense to me is one that people should be investing in.
22:24And we're getting a bit of a discount for a variety of reasons.
22:28I think we should be leaning into that. All right, let's get to your next quarterback that has a good schedule to start the season.
22:35Well, yeah, I totally spoiled it with the slip up there and mentioning Kyler Murray, but I wanted to say someone who
22:41was kind of in the mix with the top guys, but then someone who was in the mix with these late round quarterbacks.
22:47We've mentioned on the show a bunch of times this year.
22:50Late round quarterback is a great approach this year.
22:53I think you could argue some of those guys like Hertz are going in an area where they're almost entering like late round quarterback mix.
23:00I've gotten him in like the seventh and eighth when he's fallen.
23:03I think ADP wise he's in the sixth on average, but we have a big group of quarterbacks in that range from that area.
23:10So like round eight, round nine, some really good names, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, those guys.
23:14But if you end up waiting till later, I recommend grabbing two guys.
23:18I think Kyler Murray should definitely be one of them.
23:20He's got the Packers, the Bears, the Bucks and the Dolphins here.
23:24I mean, if we look back to last year, the Bears gave up the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the Bucks,
23:30the third most, the Dolphins, the 11th most, the Packers.
23:33Now you might think that might be a little bit tougher of a matchup.
23:36They're not going to have Micah Parsons early in the season.
23:40So that's going to make that one a little bit easier on them.
23:43And how many times do we have to point out, Harmon, that Kyler Murray was just like perennially a top 12 fantasy quarterback?
23:49He had a down year last year. He's clearly won this job in Minnesota.
23:53We've gone back and forth on him so many times.
23:56I don't think we need to do that once again today, but I have met QB 14.
24:01It's a very, very clear path in my mind with a favorable early season schedule here and with the weapons that he
24:07has around him, with the talent that he brings to the table.
24:10In terms of his rushing ability, the willingness to kind of chuck the ball downfield.
24:14To me, it really seems like he's a guy that could easily end up as your fantasy starter this year.
24:20And you can get him so late in drafts right now.
24:23Yeah. Very consistent with the Kyler Murray career trends of starting fast and maybe not sustaining that momentum.
24:28We'll see about that part of it, but he certainly set up well.
24:32I mean, those are four defenses, maybe Tampa Bay aside, certainly three of the four, I think, could be worse this year than they were last year.
24:39I mean, Miami secondary remains one of the most troubling units across the entire NFL.
24:43You mentioned the Bears, a lot of injuries. I think that's going to be just a shootout team all season long.
24:49And yeah, the Packers, their secondary was kind of living.
24:52They were kind of all Micah Parsons merchants last year, especially early on in the season.
24:56So I think this is a great call that if you are doing late round quarterback, you're breaking ties in favor of someone.
25:03I would go ahead and take a look at Kyler Murray there.
25:06Let's close it out with two guys that have harder early season schedules, maybe than you'd kind of like if they're going to be your quarterback one.
25:13And this one, I think is important to mention because he definitely starts off with a tough slate.
25:18It's Josh Allen. But at the same time, it's Josh Allen, right?
25:22We're not going to dock him too much. He can come through in any matchup.
25:26People are probably going to remember last the finish to last season where he had a tough schedule down the stretch.
25:32I remember I was in this situation. I think we talked about it on the show where there were guys like Brock
25:38Purdy and Trevor Lawrence that were hot and had much better matchups than Josh Allen.
25:42And it was like, can you actually bench Josh Allen in the fantasy playoffs or not?
25:46I think you put him out there. You hope for the best.
25:50Maybe we lower our projections a little bit for him early in the season.
25:54Maybe he won't be the number one ranked fantasy quarterback in week one for me when he goes against the Texans defense.
26:00And let's remember last year he went against the Texans defense.
26:03That was one of his worst outings on the season, right?
26:06253 passing yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions. They held them to 20 rushing yards.
26:10That's what a really good defense like the Texans can do.
26:13So certainly scary there. There gets the Lions after that.
26:15They have some problems in the secondary. That could be a shootout, not as worried there.
26:20But the Chargers, obviously pretty solid. The Patriots, very solid.
26:23So Josh Allen's going to have to work for it a little more early in the season.
26:27But again, those teams that he's going up against, their offenses are very good.
26:31So Allen will still potentially be able to come through.
26:34I feel good about him, but just lower expectations slightly, maybe at the start of the year.
26:39And then the other guy is Trevor Lawrence, who I mentioned last year at the end of the season had this great schedule and that contributed.
26:46Yes, he got more comfortable in Liam Cohen's offense.
26:48Yes, he had guys emerge like Parker Washington, who became this really consistent weapon for him.
26:53But the schedule was so easy. And now the schedule to start this season, we have Cleveland.
26:58We have the Broncos. We have the Patriots and the Bengals, who a little bit easier there, but they've certainly tried to improve that defense.
27:04So interested to see what it looks like. I still think that'll be a fine game for him.
27:09But those first three matchups, even without Miles Garrett on the Browns, that defense looks pretty solid.
27:14So that's something that I think people should keep in mind, right?
27:17Some of these guys that we are targeting a little bit later, like a Trevor Lawrence, maybe he won't start quite as hot this year.
27:24I think he will still come around. I think he will have a fine season.
27:29I'm still recommending that people target him. But for example, one of the things that I look at for this, like sharp
27:35football analysis ranks the secondaries before the season. And, you know, we're looking at some of these here, right?
27:40Like three of these secondaries are, you know, top 10 units in terms of the best secondaries out there.
27:45So the Bengals, we'll see if they get much better this season.
27:49But Lawrence, I think overall on the year, the fourth easiest fantasy schedule.
27:52So we can get through this first little stretch.
27:55He will be fine. Just keep it in mind if we have a couple of bad games.
27:59And that's also something to keep in mind with all these guys that have tough schedules early in the season.
28:05It can turn them in to buy low options very early in the first couple of weeks.
28:10So think about that, right? If we have some of these guys that we do have a lot of faith in, especially
28:16if we think the full season schedule is great, if they start off slow, get those offers in, try to get them
28:22a little bit cheaper than they were drafted for, and maybe you can scoop them up at a discount.
28:27Yeah, I do think maybe some of the variables that are consistent here between Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen besides the schedule
28:33is both of these teams are kind of working in some new.
28:36There's a lot of carryover, obviously, from what there was last year in Jacksonville versus what there's going to be this year.
28:43But obviously in Buffalo, they're breaking in DJ Moore, who's a little bit banged up right now.
28:47Maybe that takes a second to coalesce there, especially if they're trying to be more pass heavy this year.
28:52They're trying to involve the running backs more, et cetera, et cetera.
28:56But certainly for Jacksonville, it kind of felt like they found their identity last year.
29:00And at the same time, they're reintegrating Travis Hunter into the mix.
29:03Brian Thomas Jr. is healthier now, like what's Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington's role going to be?
29:08And for a lot of these teams that just punt off preseason too, I know the Jags say they might play their
29:14starters in week two of the preseason. Nobody did anything in week one of the preseason.
29:19That already is kind of, it makes these teams a little susceptible to starting slow.
29:23I mean, boom, that's a variable in all of this too.
29:26Most of these teams at this point are just like, yeah, September, that's kind of an extended preseason.
29:31So we don't really care too much about that, which is frustrating for us in fantasy because we want to get off
29:37to that fast start, but it's just another thing to consider when we're talking about the schedule here too.
29:42And the flip side of what I said about trying to buy low is if you can draft some of these guys
29:48that have good schedules, but aren't necessarily the best players in the league, you might be able to sell high on a
29:54guy really cash in at his peak value. And that's what we always recommend.
29:58Don't get married to the team that you draft, right?
30:01Draft a team, try to get off to a hot start, and then try to move things along the way.
30:06You're trying to build that team and that roster up so that it is as strong as it could possibly be in
30:13the second half of the season towards the fantasy playoffs.
30:15You have lots of time to make moves. And that's a mistake that I see people make often where they draft players.
30:21They're so excited about that team. They don't want to move anybody because they've convinced themselves.
30:26That's the team. Those are the players that are going to get them to a championship.
30:30And that is just an absolute mistake in fantasy.
30:33All right, we're going to take our first quick break.
30:36We come back. We're running through running backs who have tough and easy schedules to start the season.
30:41We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
30:44Boone, let's get into running backs. This might be one where maybe we can break some ties in favor of these players.
30:50Quarterback, you know, quarterback is quarterback. Running back, early season schedules that really matter here.
30:54Boone, let's go on the easy side to start this off.
30:57Who's one of the running backs you want to highlight?
31:00Well, this one's a little bit volatile. I'm going to mention David Montgomery on the Texans.
31:04Somebody that I very much am into this year.
31:07I'm trying to get him on a bunch of teams.
31:09I think he has a much higher ceiling than people are giving him credit for.
31:13And this schedule does look pretty good on paper.
31:16He's got Buffalo, the Bengals, the Colts, and the Cowboys.
31:19But those defenses have made quite a few changes this year, right?
31:22And that's something that I think we're going to have to factor in.
31:26Now, you know, three of the top eight easiest opponents for fantasy backs last season were the Bills, the Bengals, and the Cowboys.
31:32But there's just so many things that are different that it's kind of a struggle here, Harmon.
31:37Like the Bills have a whole new scheme, right?
31:39That's totally different. They have some new players along the way as well.
31:43We talked about the Bengals remaking that defensive line with Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen there, and some others.
31:48Cowboys promising new coordinator. They got some new pieces there.
31:51So the other question is how fast can some of these teams that are making these changes kind of hit their stride
31:57versus a veteran running back joining a team that's kind of done this before with a veteran running back.
32:02They went out, they got Joe Mixon when people were kind of down on Joe Mixon near the end of his time with the Bengals.
32:09He shows up and just has a monster season, right?
32:12Over 1,300 scrimmage yards, 12 touchdowns, averages the fifth most fantasy points among running backs.
32:16So I'm looking at Montgomery as a guy that I think can take advantage of this schedule.
32:21I'm looking at the Texans offense as an offense that can really hit the ground running this year.
32:25And I think getting these teams early in the season versus later when maybe they start to feel a little bit more
32:32comfortable with some of those pieces helps him. And that's why I ended up putting him in the easier schedule section.
32:37Where do you have Dave Montgomery ranked right now?
32:40Right now I have him around RB 20. I could have to pull up the exact number here.
32:45It's RB 20 or RB 21. I would say, where do you have them?
32:49ADP wise, he's running back 21. I've got him at running back 24.
32:52So kind of in the same range, ADP overall spot, 52nd overall.
32:56I've got him at 58. So I'm just a little bit behind.
32:59There are some players that, I mean, do I like Bucky Irving more?
33:03Do I like Quinchan Judkins slightly more? Maybe, you know, Basial Tootin.
33:06So am I just breaking ties in favor of younger guys that have a little more theoretical upside?
33:11Potentially, but theoretical upside might be the optimal word there.
33:14So Montgomery is just a guy I don't have a strong feeling about.
33:17I've seen some people have very strong negative feelings about.
33:20And it sounds like you've got a pretty, at least a pretty sizable positive feeling about.
33:24But I don't want to sit here and just like not talk about him and not discuss him.
33:29Because Boone, I'm terrified of, this wasn't a guy that we were down on last year.
33:34But I remember thinking when James Cook got off to such a great start last season, and he was going a little bit earlier than this.
33:41I'd be like, you know, I still think we talked about James Cook at all last season.
33:46Not like we never said anything negative about him.
33:48We never said anything positive about him. Because he was kind of in a weird contract holdout too.
33:53But I don't want to have another one of those situations come to pass where this guy gets off to a great start.
34:00He's really good. And we just didn't highlight him positively or negatively.
34:03And again, I think it's probably just because I don't have a strong feeling one way or another.
34:08That's fair. I think the fact that the Texans, in my mind, are going to be legitimate contenders this year.
34:14The fact that I think CJ Shroud could have a bit of a bounce back season.
34:18And they have some other weapons coming on, like Jaden Higgins in the passing game.
34:22Like this thing, I think, is going to look a little bit better than it did in 2025.
34:27So that factors in. Also, you know, Harmon, I'm just not a big Woody Marks guy.
34:32And that's the one thing that could sink Montgomery.
34:34If Woody Marks improved year over year. And that happens, right?
34:37There are young players that don't necessarily look the best or the most efficient as rookies.
34:41And they come back there next year after a full off season in an NFL program.
34:46And they have improved with better coaching and training and all that sort of stuff.
34:50So that's possible. If Woody Marks is a better player than he was on the field last year, this could be a
34:56little bit closer to a 50-50 split. And that could take away any sort of ceiling for Montgomery.
35:01But right now I'm viewing him as that guy that I'm not necessarily overly excited that I think he's going to win
35:07me my league or anything from the fifth round.
35:10But if I have to take him, there's that group of running backs in the fifth round that we've mentioned on previous shows.
35:16You hit on one, Quinshawn Judkins. Maybe not quite as good of a team that he's on.
35:21So I think that docks him probably in my mind a little bit.
35:24But there are some guys in that range where I'm fine drafting them, making them my RB2, settling them into that spot,
35:31kind of letting the rest of my lineup lead the way and just having them kind of handle that RB2 spot as
35:37long as they stay healthy all year. Yeah, it's a group of guys in the fifth round.
35:41Maybe you could extend this into the sixth round.
35:44But the fifth round guys, Dave Montgomery, Quinshawn Judkins, Bucky Irving right now.
35:47These are kind of the, hey, it's last call.
35:50You got a running back two? No? Go ahead and slam these guys into the running back two spot here.
35:55And I would argue that, you know, Judkins, Montgomery probably is on the best team, number one, defense heavy team.
36:01So he's going to be in favorable scripts there.
36:03And, yeah, it kind of depends on what's your opinion of Woody Marks versus Dylan Sampson versus Kenny Gainwell, you know, if
36:10we're talking about the passing down vultures for those three guys.
36:13So, I mean, Gainwell is theoretically the most proven commodity.
36:15I think Sampson showed some good stuff last year.
36:18And Marks, you know, it's a little bit hit or miss there.
36:21So a lot of different things to weigh there when we're looking at that group of running backs in the fifth round.
36:27But, yeah, Montgomery is a guy that I'm probably, to use the Scott Pienowski term, I'm not like a green light.
36:33I'm not a red light. Maybe I'm a yellow light.
36:36I don't know. I think I'm fine with where Montgomery goes right now.
36:39Maybe not even a yellow light, just a, all right, he's there type of player.
36:44I think I'm fine with where he goes. Because Amarian Hampton early on, he's another running back you want to highlight here with a good strength of schedule.
36:51Cardinals, the Raiders, the Bills again, and the Seahawks.
36:54And sure, again, the Seahawks one in there is scary.
36:57Can't go for three. A lot more intriguing, right?
36:59Those first three, the Cardinals, second most fantasy points allowed to running backs last year.
37:03The Raiders were ninth. The Bills were sixth. Brandon Thorne have established the run.
37:07He does great work breaking down offensive and defensive line play.
37:10We've mentioned him on the show before. He's got the Raiders and Cardinals among the worst defensive lines in the league.
37:16Cardinals are 29th. Raiders are 27th. Even the Bills come in at 21st.
37:20So not really scary defensive lines by any means.
37:22We know that Mike McDaniel showing up there is going to improve this run game.
37:26And the schedule will get a little bit harder along the way.
37:30But I think having that nice path, that nice runway for him to take off from for Hampton, it's going to get
37:36him off to a good start in an offense that I think we should be buying pieces of.
37:41Again, we're kind of highlighting a bunch of those.
37:43The schedule is just another reason to get in on the Chargers this year.
37:47Yeah. A lot of reasons to be in on Amar in Hampton this year.
37:51I'm in line with ADP on Hampton where he goes off the board as a 19th overall player running back 12.
37:57I've got him as my running back 12. He goes off the board at running back 12.
38:01I think there are some like minor concerns, some nits to pick in Hampton's profile, depending again on your feeling of how
38:08involved is Keaton Mitchell going to be. How involved is Kamani Vidal going to be?
38:12But for the most part, I think Hampton checked a lot of boxes as a rookie and he's in a great rushing ecosystem.
38:18I don't want to overthink this one too much if you get what I'm saying here.
38:23Yeah. Yeah. And I will also mention one other guy just as an honorable mention here, but I didn't think we needed to talk about him too much.
38:30And that's Jameer Gibbs, who has a pretty good early season schedule and has the easiest fantasy schedule for running backs on the season.
38:37And man, the rich just get richer, right? That's the reason why we're taking him 101.
38:41Everything is pointing in his favor this year. Congratulations.
38:44If you have the first overall pick in your fantasy football draft.
38:47Okay. A couple of running backs with harder strength of schedules to start this year.
38:51Oh, we have to go back to the bills and it's, you know, the schedule that we mentioned there with the Texans
38:57and the lions and the chargers and the Patriots, all of that.
39:01Just not great for James cook and really puts a lot of importance in my mind on the talk that we've heard
39:07about him, maybe getting involved more as a pass catcher this year.
39:10Cause that could help kind of counter some of that, right?
39:13Some of these difficult matchups early in the season, but it doesn't get much better.
39:17Like he has a tough schedule all year long.
39:20The second most difficult schedule for fantasy backs on the season.
39:23You just hate to see it. I hate that.
39:25I have to talk about two different bills players here in terms of difficult schedules, Harmon, but that's where it stands, right?
39:31Like, you know, in addition to having to face the Seahawks, you know, in the first five weeks, he's got the Rams as well.
39:38Or it's not the Seahawks story. The Texans, the lions, the chargers, the Patriots has the Rams as well.
39:43So five matchups that aren't great at the beginning of the year.
39:47They're just awful. All those teams are legitimate Superbowl contenders and yeah, let's hope that cook can get more work in the
39:53passing game and kind of counter some of that.
39:55Well, I will just say looking at these four games and this is obviously where you have to be a little subjective here.
40:02I think the lions and the chargers are both taking a step back defensively this year, probably more so in the secondary than anything else.
40:09But that of course can obviously affect your fantasy running back if the team can move the ball down the field.
40:14But yeah, lions, I think they're, they're secondary is in a pretty tough spot right now.
40:19And the chargers, I thought they were great on the backend, but to me, again, it's just my personal opinion.
40:24I think that was very Jesse Minter driven. They were very right and tight on the details.
40:29A lot of that looked like a, just an excellent coaching job.
40:32Can the new defensive coordinator coming from the college ranks, you know, kind of mimic that.
40:37Are they going to change too much? We shall see.
40:40But those are at least two that I could maybe poke some holes in that they might take a step back defensively, but the Patriots and the Texans.
40:47Yeah, those will probably be a two pretty difficult matchups.
40:50Speaking of the Patriots, those are two running backs.
40:53You also wanted to highlight that have tougher schedules to start.
40:56Yeah, we don't know what the split's going to be.
40:58I mentioned recently that, you know, Ramondre Stevenson, obviously creeping up there.
41:02I'm moving them over Travion Henderson and my latest rankings update.
41:05I think we have to, at this point, based on what we've heard, it will be close.
41:10They will both be involved. But everything we're hearing is that Stevenson is going to be the guy at the beginning of
41:16the year and that Anderson still needs to work on all of the things that they've asked him to work on.
41:21By all accounts, he has not really proved to that coaching staff that he deserves a bigger workload, deserves to be the lead back.
41:28And on top of that, the Seahawks, the Steelers, the Jags and the Bills here.
41:32I mean, you're starting with the defending champions. They were the second toughest opponent for fantasy backs last year.
41:38Steelers defense was sixth. Jaguars defense was third, right?
41:40Like, it's just not a great start. And if you go back to the playoffs last year, because we talked a bunch
41:46about how when it got really difficult, they did lean on Ramondre Stevenson.
41:50When the opponents were tough, they leaned on Stevenson.
41:52And those opponents also had very good run defenses.
41:55So could we see them lean on Stevenson even more early in the season to try to avoid any sort of Henderson,
42:01younger back type mistakes like we saw in January and February last year?
42:04It's also worth mentioning, though, that Stevenson wasn't particularly productive in those playoff games.
42:08He did get more work, but he wasn't putting up huge fantasy days by any means.
42:13So maybe the Patriots rushing attack, maybe it won't be quite as good.
42:16Fortunately for them, man, they got a bunch of weapons this offseason.
42:20They could take it to the air now and go after these other teams.
42:23So Patriots offense will be fine. But we might want to look at bumping these guys down in the ranks and the
42:30projections in the opening month a little bit. Yeah.
42:32Latest update on the Patriots running back situations from Chad Graff of The Athletic, as we're showing on the screen here right now.
42:38The Patriots running back share will be, quote, 50-50 split.
42:41The expectation Ramondre Stevenson is going to take the early downs and short yardage situations, especially at the goal line.
42:47And Travian Henderson may check in on second and third and long situations, quote, as long as his pass blocking holds up.
42:53So, yeah, it's kind of – this is what the situation was last year.
42:57I mean, this is kind of something I've been talking about all offseason.
43:00There's really no reason to think unless Henderson took a big leap that this would change.
43:05And it just basically sounds like Henderson has not taken that leap.
43:08I mean, he just wasn't a good player last year.
43:11I hate to say it, but he just wasn't a good player last year outside of a few explosive runs.
43:16Or at least let me put it this way.
43:19He wasn't a consistent player. But he can be very good in this change of pace role.
43:24But honestly, Boone, like I'm ahead of ADP on Ramondre Stevenson only because I feel like the ADP has not caught up
43:30to the fact that these two guys should flip right now.
43:33But I'm not going into a lot of drafts being like, man, I can't wait to take Ramondre Stevenson.
43:38And, I mean, that early season schedule is about as bad as it gets.
43:42The schedule truthers that were all over the Patriots last season, they're going to be looking at these first four games, man,
43:48and thinking, hey, if this team was a fluke at all last year, we're going to find out.
43:53Well, we've got these four games Seahawks, Steelers, Jags, and Bills to start off right off the rip, man.
43:58Yeah, I have one more I want to mention really quick, too, and that's Chase Brown, because we've talked about how when
44:04Joe Burrow was hurt last year, they had a very, very tough schedule at the beginning of the season.
44:10And he's got a tough one again in terms of he's got to go against the Bucks, the Texans, the Steelers, and the Jags.
44:16Kind of talked about them as we've talked about some of these other running backs that have tough matchups.
44:21Chase Brown, though, needs to get involved in the passing game last year.
44:25We saw him do that. I know there's some concern that Samajay Pirine being healthy could factor in and that he could take some of the receiving work.
44:33But everything we've heard is that Chase Brown is a featured part of that offense.
44:37They want to give him the ball as much as they can.
44:40So I think even though he has some tough matchups, as long as Burrow stays healthy, they have their offense intact.
44:46He's going to be fine. He'll get it done through the air as well.
44:50But just something to note that he's going to have to deal with that in the opening month.
44:55Oh, you mean the Bengals might start off slow at the beginning of a season?
44:59Never seen that before. I can't make that one into the expectations whatsoever.
45:03So, yeah, maybe what's old is new again here for the Cincinnati Bengals.
45:06We're going to take another quick break. We come back.
45:09We're talking wide receivers with some difficult and easy strength of schedules to start the season.
45:14We will get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
45:17Let's talk some wide receivers with good and favorable strength of schedules to begin the season.
45:21Boone, we're going back to Philadelphia for our first grouping here.
45:24Yeah, we don't have to spend too much time on it because it's the same schedule and a lot of the same
45:30reasons why we'd want to target these guys. But I think it's important to bring them up because the injury situation that we've dealt with this month.
45:38Right. We haven't seen these guys out on the field.
45:41Now, Devonta Smith, we have proof that he can be a very good and productive NFL receiver.
45:45We have proof that when A.J. Brown's missed time, he's basically stepped up and performed like a wide receiver one for fantasy.
45:52And in real life, I think he can do it again.
45:55And you mentioned, you know, he's back at practice today.
45:57So he's got some time here to get ready for the season and hopefully avoid any sort of aggravations or anything like that.
46:04Makai Lemon, it becomes a little more complicated because he's a rookie, because he missed time in OTAs.
46:09I think we can almost certainly pencil him in for a slow start this season.
46:13Still a player that I want to invest in.
46:15You can get him a lot cheaper in drafts now.
46:18He might even be somebody that you're going to be able to trade for.
46:22If he doesn't really do much early in the season, people are going to be so down on him.
46:27And you could probably go get him at a massive discount in the trade.
46:31So keep that in mind. And also keep in mind, Dontavian Wicks, if you're in a deeper league, maybe he could sneak
46:37into your lineup because there's been really positive reports about him.
46:40But those first three weeks for the Eagles passing attack, I think it's going to put to rest any concerns that people have after last season.
46:47I think we're going to get to see them have a soft start there and really get going before the schedule gets
46:54a little bit tougher, but not that much tougher.
46:56Because, again, they have a pretty, pretty set schedule the rest of the way.
47:00And it's going to be able to be one that they're going to be able to attack all year long.
47:05And I'm pretty excited for that. Yeah, Makai Lemon has dropped 10 spots in ADP between this week and last week.
47:11And it makes sense, right? Because it's just not been a clean offseason for him from the injury standpoint with this hamstring.
47:17He's been dealing with this for months now at this point.
47:20And that's unfortunate. Like I always say, I hate when rookies miss time because you are.
47:25This is what happened with Luther Burden last year.
47:27Like, oh, why was Luther Burden not a full-time player all throughout his rookie season?
47:31Well, because he missed a bunch of time, especially as they were installing the offense in OTAs and mini camps.
47:37Turns out once he got ramped up, he was just fine.
47:40And I think that will happen for Makai Lemon.
47:43But this is a new offense that they're installing here in Philadelphia.
47:46And he's missed just so, so much time. He doesn't have the reps of the quarterback.
47:50He doesn't have the reps of the offensive coordinator.
47:53But you know who's got the reps in the offense, baby?
47:56It's Dontavian Wicks, who followed Sean Mannion from Green Bay.
47:59Boone, scale of 1 to 10 as an absolute sick pup who still believes in Dontavian Wicks and is holding a –
48:05I got – the wick is lit. The candle is lit for Dontavian Wicks here, Justin Boone.
48:09I've got him as my wide receiver 54 when he is not being drafted on Yahoo right now.
48:14I mean, come on. What are we talking about?
48:17Can I get excited about a fast start to this season for Dontavian Wicks?
48:21Action speak louder than words, Harmon. I said I had my home league draft on Friday.
48:25I said that Jalen Hurts fell and I drafted him.
48:28And guess what I did in the late rounds?
48:30I drafted Dontavian Wicks on my roster. Oh, we're so back.
48:34Threw him on the bench and let's see what happens.
48:36Because yeah, we've seen high-end potential from him. And if he can put it all together, it's going to be potentially a
48:42problem if he has to battle with Makai Lemon eventually here.
48:45But there's going to be a chance for him to have some very big games in real life and in fantasy.
48:51So yes, I am still drafting him, Harmon, even in redraft leagues.
48:55It's a bit deeper benches, so it's a little easier to do it in that one.
48:59But yes, people should be looking at him seriously and getting him on the roster.
49:03Here's what's going to happen. Okay. We're going to go ahead and look at the time machine.
49:08Take a little jump to the future. Dontavian Wicks week one.
49:11He's going to run 80% of the routes. He's going to be out there.
49:15He's going to get like six targets. Have a pretty solid game.
49:18He is going to absolutely lead every single waiver wire segment.
49:21You're going to be talking about it. We're going to be talking about it.
49:25It's going to be the whole deal. Tennessee Titans.
49:28Did you see what the Tennessee Titans did in week one?
49:31They got smoked. That defense isn't ready for prime time.
49:33Week two, Dontavian Wicks. Two drops. One contested catch failure.
49:36It's all. I'm trying to talk myself down because you were talking me up there getting excited about Wicks.
49:41But obviously that's what's probably going to happen here.
49:44But no, I think he does make for a really good early season sleeper.
49:48So the candle is lit for Dontavian Wicks, even though I just painted the doom scenario for week two.
49:53It's a pretty uncomplicated start, though. So I think he might have a little more than just one weekend.
49:58But yes, that is the story of his career, basically.
50:01But those first three matchups, those are three of the seven best matchups for fantasy receivers last year.
50:06Right. So if we have Lemon starting slow, we might get a few weeks of Dontavian Wicks before it all falls apart.
50:12But you want to get in on those first few weeks.
50:15You want to sneak them into your lineup, even if it is just as a flex player, your wide receiver three.
50:21He might have quite a bit of value in the opening month.
50:24He's a really talented player. OK, so obviously I'm rooting for it for that reason.
50:28I'm also rooting for it because then I get to bring back the meme of Matt LaFleur playing a little kiss on
50:35Dontavian Wicks' helmet on the Thanksgiving slate from this past season.
50:38So I want to be using that as much as possible from this season, in addition to using Dontavian Wicks in my
50:44fantasy lineups, which obviously I want that as well.
50:46Another player that I do want to have in fantasy this year is Zay Flowers, who we are talking about next.
50:52He is part of that third round mix boon that we were discussing earlier, where he might actually be one of the
50:58more comfortable players in that pool right now. Yeah, I mean, he's another player.
51:02I don't want to keep going back to this team that I drafted the other day.
51:06But man, I drafted him on that team as well.
51:09I saw him fall. I don't know if people are worried about, you know, he's not the biggest touchdown scorer or something like that.
51:16But he fell a little bit further than he has in other drafts that I've been in.
51:21You look at the start of the season here, the Colts, the Saints, the Cowboys, the Titans.
51:25Definitely, definitely like that schedule for him. On top of the fact that they've made some moves.
51:30I mean, we're watching Jacoby Lane get a ton of hype.
51:33He's apparently the greatest receiver of all time. And yes, he's going to factor in here.
51:37But say Flowers is the number one player that's going to catch the most passes in this offense.
51:42He is going to be good for fantasy. This time last year, Harmon, remember, he got off to a hot start.
51:48We were talking about him. Is he going to be a wide receiver one in fantasy for the entire season, which he was doing early in the year?
51:56I have him ranked not far out from that.
51:59Like he is a strong wide receiver, too. There is wide receiver one potential in him for sure.
52:03If he can pick up where he left off last season and keep it going.
52:08And when you start off with this schedule where you're playing a trio of defenses that were in the top seven in
52:14terms of fantasy points allowed last year and Colts, Cowboys, the Titans.
52:17Again, there are some changes to those teams. The Colts, a sauce gardener is going to be healthy.
52:22The Cowboys coordinator and some new pieces. Things will be a little bit different.
52:26But I still think this is an offense that we're going to go after that.
52:30We want pieces of Declan Doyle coming in. The players seem very excited about him getting there.
52:35This is another situation where an offensive coordinator can get the players fired up, can help us for fantasy.
52:40I think all of that's going to come to fruition.
52:43So Flowers, someone that maybe people aren't as enticed by, but they should be, man.
52:47He is a very solid pick in the third round.
52:50Yeah, I love taking him in the third round.
52:52I'm pretty much in line. He's wide receiver 15.
52:55I had him at wide receiver 15. There's just some guys I like that sort of right in that range there.
53:01But he's someone I'm absolutely open to taking. 29% target share last year, which I know is obviously a little inflated because it's the Ravens offense.
53:08They're run heavy. He only had 118 targets overall.
53:10But tell me why he can't get close to those target share numbers once again this year.
53:15This is one of those situations where, yes, Jacoby Lane's getting hype.
53:18Rashad Bateman's talking about how he's moving all over the formation and everything.
53:22Don't lose the forest for the trees here on this one.
53:25He's also going to be doing a lot of pre-snap movement, moving around the formation.
53:29It's Mr. Zay Flowers here. And I think this is a team, Boone, that probably is going to play a lot more
53:3511 personnel than they ever had previously. Under Todd Monk, and they were annually one of the higher or one of the lower 11 personnel grouping teams.
53:43But with the way this receiver room looks right now in the tight end room, it's not been a great training camp for Mark Andrews.
53:50You know, preseason. We'll see like Matthew Hibner, their fourth round rookie tight end has gotten some pop, but played well in the preseason.
53:56We don't know. That's a long way to go for him to be like an every down player.
54:01You know, there's a chance this team plays a ton of 11 personnel.
54:05And Zay Flowers, who was a 37% slot player in last season, I could see him getting higher than that.
54:10Right. I could see him being in the 40s, maybe, which would even be another way for him to access that further upside.
54:17So, you know, whether you like the schedule or not, I do think the Cowboys defense is going to be dramatically better.
54:23That week three matchup. We'll see about that. But otherwise, I still think Flowers is clearly, clearly a really good pick in the third round.
54:30And Lamar Jackson going from, you know, the second half of the season last year, and we weren't sure if we could play him in fantasy.
54:37He was hurt. Wasn't the same player. Just him.
54:39If he can stay healthy, that's going to take this offense to another level, and that's going to give Flowers an even higher ceiling.
54:46Yeah, absolutely. No question about that. OK, give me a couple honorable mentions here for wide receivers that have good early season schedules.
54:52Well, an interesting one, and it's kind of happy and sad at the same time, is the Saints, the Lions, the Raiders, the Ravens, the Falcons.
55:00Will Jordan Tyson be out there, Harmon, or not?
55:02We don't know what's going on with that injury.
55:05If he is out there, then Chris Olave and Tyson, both great plays.
55:08If he's not, then man, Chris Olave to the moon in the early part of the season.
55:13But let's hope, I mean, talk about lighting a candle, man.
55:16Light a candle for Jordan Tyson just having good health here and coming back and having a strong rookie season.
55:22Because all signs were pointing to him having a really big year, and that injury was a really crushing one.
55:27Another guy is Garrett Wilson. I know you continuously, I really like him too.
55:31You continuously keep saying that, like, we're hoping that it happens for him.
55:35We're hoping that it happens. Titans, Packers, Lions, Bears.
55:37It's a pretty good start, man. And we've heard that, you know, Omar Cooper Jr.
55:41not really coming on early here as a first-round rookie.
55:44So it looks like Garrett Wilson might get a lot of work early in the season.
55:48A lot of volume there. And hopefully this year.
55:51Yes, hopefully, Harmon. This is the year that he does it for fantasy and has a really big season and reaches his ceiling.
55:57Oh, God. You would really hope so. I mean, Garrett Wilson last year, people forget he was off to an incredible start.
56:03In the first six weeks of the season, he had a 34% target share, which trailed only Jackson Smith and Jigbo.
56:09It was just ahead of Drake London and Chris Olave.
56:12And yeah, I mean, I don't think Omar Cooper Jr.
56:15is done. Talked about this a little bit yesterday with Josh and Hayden.
56:18He'll probably come on in the second half of the year.
56:21But it's just a reminder that the now clear-cut number two receiver is your boy, Aidy Mitchell, who actually just put up
56:27his reception perception charting profile on the site this morning.
56:30He's obviously a – he's got promise, but he's a flawed player in his own right.
56:35It just to me is – we're still going to see a lot of pre-snap movement, get around the formation with Garrett Wilson.
56:41The usage should be good there. So yeah, he's certainly someone that – it's hard to get like ahead of ADP on
56:47Garrett Wilson because he always goes not high, but relatively high.
56:50So I truly am just – he's wide receiver 21 off the board.
56:54I've got him as my wide receiver 21. I'm just a little bit ahead of the overall ADP because I like the receivers in that range.
57:01But I want to double back to Chris Olave and Jordan Tyson because Tyson is a guy, man, that like – I'm
57:07doing the Michael Scott snip, snap, snip, snap, snip, snap with my rankings on him because at first I came in like,
57:13yeah, he's had this hamstring injury or whatever. But the more you looked at it, the more you felt pretty good about him.
57:20And then he picks the hamstring up again. So I kind of had like yo-yoing up and down the rankings with Jordan Tyson.
57:26I mean, there's a chance he misses like the first couple weeks of the season because this is a recurring thing for him.
57:32And it's tough too, Boone. This is something that – I have no idea if this is true or not.
57:38But his play style with the way he moves and how he gets people so excited with these practice reps because he just moves different.
57:45You just wonder if he's like going to be hurt all the time.
57:48He's been hurt all the time this calendar year in 2026.
57:51So that's tough. But it just made me bump Chris Olave up at least a couple of spots in my wide receiver rankings.
57:58Not that I didn't have him high already. I did.
58:01But I firmly pushed him into wide receiver one territory as my 12th receiver off the board and someone that – yeah.
58:07Obviously, Tyson is going to be awesome when he's out there.
58:10But I mean, Chris Olave is locked in, great player, knows the offense.
58:13He's someone that I think is a great pick.
58:16I would be comfortable taking him in the back of the second if not right in the early third round.
58:21Yeah, I agree. And with all the weird situations we talked about with the third round players, Chris Olave is somebody that
58:27you can just click and feel very good about.
58:30He showed us the ceiling last year. He's going to have a strong start to the season for sure and hopefully a strong year.
58:37Just I hope it doesn't happen because Jordan Tyson's not out there.
58:40We want to see these guys get on the field and actually show what they can do.
58:45And I think Chris Olave would be a great pick if Jordan Tyson was there.
58:49I just think obviously the target consolidation becomes a little stronger if Tyson is not.
58:53By the way, knock on wood that we're talking about Chris Olave is like, oh yeah, set your watch by it.
58:59He's a guy that you can just totally lock in because we – that was not the sentiment 365 days ago.
59:04But again, knock on wood, I'm hoping that Chris Olave is good to go and concussions and everything.
59:09He was – blood clots missed a game the end of last season.
59:13So knock on wood, Chris Olave is doing good because, man, he's in line for an awesome season.
59:18We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we're talking wide receivers with difficult schedules to start this year
59:24and some tight ends on both sides as well.
59:27We will get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
59:30Let's talk some wide receivers that have a little bit of a difficult schedule here at the beginning of the year.
59:36Let's go down to Tampa Bay for the first one.
59:39Yeah, the Bucs right now, we have some things to figure out there.
59:42We just talked before the break about Jordan Tyson and not really knowing what was going to happen with his injury.
59:48Well, what about Emeka Buka? What's going on with this toe, Harmon?
59:51Like this could be something that continues to hinder him, that continues to linger for a while.
59:56Could be something that's not that big of a deal.
59:59And we can't ask Todd Bowles because when they ask Todd Bowles, we get these really bizarre responses, right?
60:04Like remember what happened with Bucky Irving when he was like, yeah, he might be out until the fall.
60:09And everybody was like, he's going to be out until the fall.
60:13What? Well, he said something similar with the Bucs where it was like he's day-to-day, week-to-week.
60:17Well, what does that mean? Like how are we supposed to take that?
60:21I really don't know. And that would be awful because we want to see him start the season hot like he did last year.
60:27And we want to see him finally keep it up.
60:30And the schedule at the start of the year, not the best.
60:33Like this Bengals matchup, again, this defense is going to be a little bit better this year.
60:38That's not a super scary matchup. But also, let's remember, they have a guy that gets shut down number one receivers, right?
60:44So that's a little bit scary when you talk about if Buka is going to be the guy there.
60:49Then we have the Browns, the Vikings, and the Packers in week four.
60:53So some tougher matchups there makes me a little bit worried.
60:56But the reason that I really want to bring it up for him and Godwin is this is another scenario where the schedule gets much, much easier.
61:04Overall in the season, the ninth easiest schedule for fantasy receivers.
61:07When you take away this opening month that's a little bit tough, they have the second easiest schedule after this from week five on.
61:13So this is certainly a scenario where you either weather the storm, you draft these guys, you put up with maybe some
61:19lower numbers in some of these games, and you just deal with it.
61:23Or you really aggressively try to buy low on them if they have some tough outings here against some of these defenses.
61:29Oh, God. I mean, the Ibuka thing is so frustrating because he was somebody I was really excited about this season.
61:35I still have him as my wide receiver 16.
61:37I don't want to move him too far down from that.
61:40But listen, in the tier of guys that he's in right now, which just in my rankings is AJ Brown, Ladd McConkie,
61:47Tedrow McMillan, Rasheed Rice, Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin. And you want to break ties and favor some of those dudes ahead of Ibuka.
61:53I totally get it, especially if you're looking within the same kind of archetype, young ascending player that's getting a little bit of a role change.
62:00You know, that's like Ladd McConkie and Tedrow McMillan.
62:03So if you want to go ahead and flip those two guys up ahead of Ibuka, they're behind him in my rankings,
62:09but you want to put him at like, I would totally understand that, you know, at this point.
62:14So it's just frustrating because he's in he's I do believe he's in line for the role change that he needs.
62:19I think Baker is going to have a good season this year.
62:23This offensive line is good, but the schedule to start is difficult, especially that week one matchup with DJ Turner, who you mentioned Ibuka coming off.
62:30Like if this is turf toe and DJ Turner is tracking him around the field on week one, we can go ahead
62:36and like producers go ahead and make the graphic for the panic meter for week one for a Mecca Ibuka.
62:42Because he's definitely he's definitely getting a submission or two if that is the case here.
62:46So super frustrating on him. Chris Godwin. I mean, I still like Chris Godwin as a late round pick.
62:51He just kind of goes in the range of receivers boon where I'm kind of trending towards some of the younger players.
62:57So, you know, maybe that is it is what it is on that one.
63:01Let's go to the next group here. Another second year player that's not exactly 100 percent healthy right now.
63:07Yeah, you think maybe I would do one of these where we're not talking about an injured receiver.
63:12But no, we have to talk about Luther Burden.
63:14And we have maybe a little bit better idea with him that he should be back potentially for week one, if not
63:20very early, maybe week two kind of thing. So I feel a little bit better about the information we have around Burden.
63:26But the matchups for him, the Panthers, the Vikings, the Eagles and the Jets like you're dealing with.
63:31You know, you got to deal with Horn in week one.
63:34You got to deal with Brian Flores' defense in week two.
63:37The Eagles, obviously that defense is great. It's a very tough start to the season.
63:41I'm still buying in, though, Harmon, because I just love this offense and I love Ben Johnson and I love the way he's talking about this year.
63:49Like, let's put up the most points of all time.
63:52Like, let's get after it. Let's have that bravado, feel confident and have a great season.
63:56And all it's going to take for Burden, in my mind, is for him to be healthy.
64:01But it's investing in him. It's investing in Colson Loveland, a Doonsday who I have a little bit lower.
64:06I think you have a little more faith in a Doonsday than I do.
64:10But you're just buying pieces of this offense, regardless of this schedule.
64:13It's going to be a little tougher early in the season.
64:16So some of these we're pointing out because we're kind of shying away from some players.
64:21This one is one where I'm saying it's kind of like the Josh Allen thing.
64:25I'm throwing it out the window. I know it's tough.
64:28I still want to be invested in this Bears attack.
64:30Yeah, I'm with you on that. I love that Ben Johnson even made comparisons to the 2013 Denver Broncos team when it was just like everybody went crazy.
64:38They broke records because every year when I write my draft a blueprint piece, which will be out tomorrow, we're going to
64:44talk about at the end of the show here.
64:47I referenced that 2013 Denver Broncos team of just like, how did you win fantasy football that year?
64:52Whoever drafted the most Broncos. And I kind of feel like this Bears team is going to be that, especially because it's three dudes that are really good.
65:00Bird and Loveland, a Doonsday. It should be pretty concentrated between those three guys.
65:03And even if you have Bird gets off to a little bit of a slow start, he's a guy that he's been
65:10banged up throughout the course of his NFL career so far.
65:13So we'll see. But as long as he gets healthy, I have no problem.
65:16Like I'm ahead of consensus on all three of those Bears pass catchers.
65:20And Caleb Williams is a great quarterback pick as well.
65:23So I'm with you. I'm not freaking out about this one, especially because like week four against the Jets.
65:28Like, yeah, turn the fireworks on, baby. We'll be we'll be all right.
65:32As long as we can get to week four there.
65:34Give me some since we weren't worried about the Bears.
65:37Give me like one or two honorable mentioned teams that maybe we should be a little more concerned about.
65:43The Jags wide receivers. They're going to have the Browns, the Broncos, the Patriots and the Bengals again.
65:47And I think the interesting thing about that is I'm a little more worried for BTJ and some of those matchups.
65:53If you think about it, Parker Washington is going to be used in some ways where I think he's going to be
65:59just fine, even though some of those matchups are tough.
66:02So that's even another reason. And not that we need another reason to talk about Parker Washington and how great he looks
66:08and how good he could potentially be this year.
66:11But the schedule there, I think even though it's tough, favors him a little bit.
66:15And then one, the Steelers receivers. I'm not really investing in them anyway, but the Falcons, the Patriots, the Bengals and the
66:21Browns don't really love that start for them. They're dealing with injuries.
66:24He's talking with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman. So it's just got a lot of things pointing towards those guys not getting
66:30off to a strong start and maybe in my mind, not even potentially having a great season.
66:35What's your order on the Jags wide receivers right now?
66:38Parker Washington, BTJ, Jacoby Myers, and then Travis Hunter a little ways down.
66:42How big is the gap between Washington and BTJ?
66:44It's still fairly close, but basically every time I update my rankings, I keep moving Parker Washington up.
66:49I think last time I did it here. Let's see.
66:52I have it right next to me. The next update, he's at wide receiver 26.
66:56And we have BTJ at 34. And then there's like a pretty decent gap down to Jacoby Myers and even more towards Hunter.
67:02Yeah, I've got them a little bit closer together.
67:05I have Parker 30, BTJ wide receiver 32. I am ahead of overall ADP, though, on both of those guys.
67:10Yeah. I mean, look, I think it I think Parker Washington is really set up to be the top pass catcher on the team right now.
67:18I probably like two months ago, I would have said it would be BTJ because he's the every down X receiver.
67:23Which even if he's going to be the vertical guy, being on the field is going to matter in a room with
67:29their they're going to rotate these four guys. But the fact that Travis Hunter sounds like he's mixing in as an outside receiver.
67:36I do think that is going to kind of it's going to work into BTJ's routes and snaps and everything like that.
67:42In addition to the fact that, yeah, I mean, he's going to be the run one running into those tougher corners on the boundary.
67:49You know, I don't want to say sacrificial X BTJ, but there will be some moments where he's running the most difficult routes on the team.
67:56And Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers like Myers is I mean, I have ranked wide receiver 53, which is actually ahead of where he goes.
68:03ADP wise wide receiver 66. And then I have Travis Hunter wide receiver 58.
68:07So that's kind of how I'm thinking of these guys right now.
68:10And, you know, Hunter, we'll just see what his role is.
68:13He's not somebody that you can like plan on starting in the first four weeks of the season unless something dramatically changes.
68:19But, yeah, I think it will be Parker Washington as the leading receiver in Jacksonville.
68:23That's just been the pretty consistent drumbeat out of that camp.
68:26Yeah, no doubt. And I'm trying to target him everywhere.
68:29And I won't say the article that I'm writing later this week, but I will be writing about him as one of the players in it.
68:36OK, I like to hear it. OK, tight ends, early season schedules that matter here for the tight ends.
68:41Tight ends is a little tougher to predict when it comes to this stuff, I will admit.
68:46And you even have some weird scenarios where like the Seahawks had a really good defense, but then they weren't as good against tight ends.
68:53The Raiders had a really bad defense and, you know, weirdly, they were good against tight ends last year.
68:58So you end up with like some strange things happening.
69:01A couple of guys that have good schedules, Harold Fannin Jr.
69:04on the Browns. And Harmon, we don't have time for this conversation.
69:07We'll save it for another day. But you keep saying your Cardinals curious.
69:11Is it weird that I'm becoming like Cleveland curious?
69:14Because there's a lot of good players in this offense now.
69:17Like the two young rookie receivers, very intriguing. Fannin, we saw what he could do last year.
69:21Quinshawn Judkins. I know they don't have a quarterback and that's going to be the thing that still holds them back.
69:27But there's a lot of good potential fantasy pieces in that offense.
69:30And they have the Jags, the Bucs, the Panthers and the Steelers, which we won't get into it in depth here.
69:36But in terms of tight end matchups, not too bad at all.
69:40That's a pretty good start for Fannin. The only question with him is how much is he going to be impacted by
69:46those young receivers being there and causing more target competition?
69:48George Kittle has a very good start to the season.
69:51Now it comes with like the asterisks because is he going to be out there at the start of the season?
69:57He still wants us to think that he's going to be.
70:00I'm not so sure, especially about that week one game in Australia.
70:03Will he actually go to that game and be on the field for that one?
70:08Will they maybe hold him out for week two or a little bit later?
70:11But after that Rams game, Dolphins goes against Arizona and then the Broncos there.
70:15And he's had success against the Rams. I mean, it's George Kittle.
70:19As long as he's healthy enough, he can have success against anybody.
70:22But he's got some good matchups there, especially the Dolphins and the Cardinals.
70:26Yeah, man. The Fannin thing. Brown's curious. Cleveland curious.
70:28That's I'm not sure which one is more disgusting.
70:31Cardinals curious or Cleveland curious. We'll see. You must be partially intrigued by those receivers.
70:35Come on. Yeah. Yeah. No, I just I guess I've just written which listen, I'm not throwing stones from my glass house
70:41here about the fact that like I'm freaking Cardinals curious.
70:44I did a whole hour long YouTube segment about it.
70:46All right. I get it. I'm not the one to be, you know, not the one to be shooting the arrows here on this one.
70:53Fine. But I guess I've just mentally already kind of bucketed that the Browns will be an interesting team to think about and watch this year.
71:00And then these guys will all be great together in 2027 and beyond Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion and Harold Fannin, too.
71:07I do. I definitely worry, though, that Fannin is going to lose some especially gimme targets to Casey Concepcion.
71:12And, you know, Denzel Boston has been great this offseason.
71:15Casey was incredible in that first preseason game. So, yeah, Fannin is a guy that it's good to see the early season schedule.
71:21That's nice. He's just not been somebody I'm drafting very much of, which there was no shot to his talent.
71:27I think he's an awesome player. Just obviously a little bit of more of a difficult click with the wide receivers this year.
71:33I think with Todd Monk in there, they're going to have to throw the ball a ton.
71:38And of course, we keep coming back to Deshaun Watson of it all.
71:41How's that going to look? Is he going to be able to support a bunch of different guys for fantasy?
71:47But if we're talking about the schedule on the season at tight end, the third easiest fantasy schedule at receiver, the third
71:53easiest fantasy schedule at running back, the 10th easiest and at quarterback, the second easiest.
71:57Now, do not draft Deshaun Watson unless you're in a, you know, two QB super flex type league, then maybe, but looking
72:03at those receivers and looking at fan and at tight end, the schedule is very easy on a team that I think
72:09is going to have to throw the ball. So there's at least some pieces in place where we could get some value
72:15in that offense and maybe see them start to turn a bit of a corner and start to produce a little more for fantasy.
72:22Yeah. Famous last words. But if you're asking me distributor that can just get the football to players, I like give me
72:28Jacoby for set 10 times out of 10 over Deshaun Watson and, and, you know, probably should are Sanders as well.
72:34You're two guys that were two teams that were in the bucket of harder season schedule.
72:38Maybe we don't have to break this down because we've got to get to break, but, you know, chargers, not like anyone's
72:44really drafting any chargers tight ends of fantasy. If you're drafting Rondae Gadsden, it's past time to, to, to fix that.
72:50You know, he was playing in the preseason where Kolar and David and Joker were not.
72:55And Juwan Johnson, who I have like a little bit of a soft spot for as a sleeper tight end, but obviously
73:01early season schedule, not so great there. Yeah. Johnson quietly the tight end 14 and fantasy points per game last year.
73:07He had nine top 10 finishes on a weekly basis.
73:09The schedule not great, but then again, yeah, the Jordan Tyson situation could maybe bring him back into play as somebody that
73:15even in a situation with bad schedule, he might still be somebody you could look to and have him start a few
73:21games for you early in the year. All right.
73:24We are going to take our final quick break.
73:26We come back. We share a draft day blueprint tip for you.
73:30We will get into that right after this. All right, we're back and welcome to draft day blueprint presented by orgain creatine.
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73:46And today we're talking a little draft day blueprint.
73:48Okay. I mentioned this. My draft day blueprint piece comes out tomorrow on Tuesday.
73:52Please read it. It's so many words. Okay. It's so many words.
73:56Please read it so that I can feel like a little bit of happiness inside my soul.
74:00Plus, it's going to help you prepare for your draft day.
74:03And one of those tips, Boone, which is going to dovetail into our final segment here today.
74:08And it's really the theme of the show, man.
74:10It's all about getting off to a fast start.
74:13You mentioned this early on that best ball brain does kind of, you know, seeps into our content when we're doing regular redraft stuff.
74:20And we think about, oh, man, all that matters is those end of the season weeks where we finish strong, where we win our fantasy football championships.
74:27But objectively, the best way to get to the end of the season is to get off to a fast start.
74:33So a couple of the numbers from the blueprint piece.
74:36Last season, 91% of fantasy managers who started off 5-0 made the playoffs.
74:39And it didn't automatically get you a championship, but almost a quarter of them, 24.5%, did in fact win their leagues.
74:45And I've written this draft day blueprint piece. It feels like 100 years now, but the last few years, that's been the
74:51general theme of the data every single season. Once you get down to 3-2, man, in terms of making the playoffs, it pretty much could go either way.
74:59It kind of hovers around a 50% chance to make the postseason among leagues that have drafted on Yahoo the last few years.
75:05So, Boone, getting off to a fast start is something that we hammer consistently on this show.
75:10It is something we want you guys to do.
75:13Be focused on these early season schedules. And that trickles all the way down to picking your streaming defense to start the year.
75:19So, Boone, it is time for you to go full sicko mode here, pal.
75:23Talk about some of the defenses that have some early season schedules that people should be interested in.
75:28Well, it might seem strange because throughout the show, we've talked about the stronger defenses, the weaker defenses.
75:33And yet, when you get to picking a defense for week one, you don't always want to go with who is just the best defense flat out.
75:40We do want to play matchups a little bit.
75:43I think you can have a lot more success streaming your defenses, especially when you think like later in the season when
75:49injuries start hitting, start to target teams that are playing backup quarterbacks.
75:52And you can get those guys cheap. And then you don't have to make a really tough call if you have the Texans defense or the Rams defense.
76:00And then their bye week comes along and you have to now drop one of your bench players in order to pick
76:06up a second defense in order to carry that good one for a week.
76:10No, we just stream. We have one spot for defense.
76:13And also, it allows you to maybe drop that defense and pick up a waiver wire player.
76:17If you have somebody in mind like a guy who might get a start the next week at running back, but maybe
76:23we don't know the situation with his starter yet.
76:26You just drop that defense because who cares? Pick up that player, hold them for the week, and then you decide who
76:32you want to pick up and whether you want to keep that player or not.
76:36So, it gives you a lot of roster flexibility, lineup flexibility, and all that sort of stuff.
76:41And when we look at week one here, there's some teams that have pretty good schedules to start the year.
76:46There's one that I'm targeting that has a very good matchup just in week one.
76:51But let's start with the Chargers defense. We have the Cardinals and we have the Raiders in the first two weeks.
76:56And I will listen to the argument that these offenses are going to be better.
77:01We know we've talked about you being Cardinals curious and what Michael Thurka do in Arizona.
77:05Clint Kubiak with Vegas, two top-notch offensive minds joining those organizations.
77:08Those offenses are going to get better over time.
77:11But change does take time. And in week one, in week two, are we going to see them come out of the gate and be that strong?
77:18Are we still going to see some mistakes? And you think back to last year, everyone liked jumping on and getting players
77:24in the Cardinals offense in the second half of the season because they were throwing the ball all over the place.
77:30But these guys were both top seven in fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses last year.
77:34So, the Cardinals, the Raiders, two great matchups. The Chargers defense, we know that they can be good.
77:39We know that that team in general is going to win a lot of games this year.
77:44This is a defense you can grab. Start them the first two weeks.
77:48You're going to drop them because they have the Bills, the Seahawks, and the Broncos the next three weeks after that.
77:53But that's a team that you can just grab right away.
77:57You start them for two weeks and you're good to go.
78:00And they're not going off the board as a top defense by any means.
78:03Another one, the Ravens. Now, this one you can look at a little bit longer.
78:08There's some tough matchups in here. They play the Colts, the Saints, the Cowboys.
78:11And then it's the Titans, the Falcons, the Browns.
78:14Some great quarterbacks to target there. The Colts, this isn't as rock solid as they were early in the season last year, right?
78:20Michael Pittman Jr.'s gone. Alec Pierce might not be available in week one.
78:24Daniel Jones still trying to get back to form, coming off a serious injury.
78:28So, the Colts isn't quite as scary of a matchup.
78:31The Saints, very up-tempo. You like that when you're trying to target a defense to play.
78:35You want the offense to be up-tempo. That means there's going to be more opportunity for plays that are going to get you fantasy points, right?
78:42So, that's interesting. And for everything we say about Tyler Shuck and the Saints attack, they still were giving up quite a bit of fantasy points last year.
78:50They looked good, but they were still giving up fantasy points in terms of being one of the top 10 most favorable matchups for opposing defenses.
78:57And also, we said it earlier, Jordan Tyson might not be out there in week one.
79:02The Cowboys is a tough matchup for sure. We can't get around that.
79:05That's a good offense. But then you're getting Cam Ward, either Tua or Michael Penix.
79:09We don't really know who's going to be playing quarterback come week five for the Falcons.
79:14And then Deshaun Watson and Cleveland. And as much as I have optimism about the Browns offense, I still think that's a
79:20matchup that we can target there, Herman. Any thoughts on those two before I give the one that I think you just target for week one?
79:27Oh, yeah. Listen, I think that when you're looking at these defenses, even just going back to the Chargers example, you can
79:33have some optimism that the Cardinals offense and the Raiders offense are going to be a little bit better.
79:38But that's over the course of the season. Usually we're better at picking who are going to be the best and worst
79:45offenses in the NFL versus who's going to be the best and worst defenses in the NFL.
79:49Offense is much stickier year to year. And I think that the Cardinals and Raiders offense could be a little bit better than expectations.
79:56But the Chargers are still going to be heavy favorites in both games.
79:59They're both at home, I believe, as well. The Chargers will be there.
80:03So heavy home favorites like they're going to be in positions to get sacks and turnovers in the second half, even if
80:09those offenses are OK, which is what really matters for streaming defenses.
80:13But continue. Who do we get for week one here?
80:15I didn't mention the Chargers home thing because is it a home game for them?
80:19Kind of. Yes, I guess so. But we see a lot of opposing fans in that stadium.
80:24Yeah, we see a lot of opposing fans in that stadium.
80:27Raiders especially. I don't know if we'll be seeing a lot of Cardinals fans making the trip up to L.A.
80:33in week one. But yeah, Raiders fans for sure.
80:35If you are approaching it the way that I'm approaching it, I would go after the Jags defense.
80:40They get Cleveland in week one. Go out. Get them.
80:43It's a great matchup, like we said. They got a lot of pieces that we can get excited about.
80:48And yet I don't know that in week one it's all going to come together for them.
80:53They're going to probably play both quarterbacks throughout the season.
80:56So there's going to be a lot of ups and downs for this attack.
81:00And in week one, getting the Jags who were tied for the third most fantasy points among defenses last year.
81:05So this is a pretty good defense with a great matchup.
81:08You get them. You play them in week one.
81:11And you're set. Okay. Well, one of those defenses that you might want to play the Jaguars ahead of in week one.
81:17You've got two here that have hard early season schedules.
81:20I don't think we need to talk about the commanders.
81:22Like, yeah. They got a tough schedule to start the season.
81:25It's just so bad. Yeah, it's at Philadelphia, at Dallas, Seahawks, Colts.
81:29Yeah, it's not great. Okay. So Sonny Stiles and the boys.
81:32It would be quite the omission if I didn't mention them based on that schedule.
81:36We had to say it even though no one is starting the commanders defense.
81:40But that is a very difficult schedule. I don't think we got to worry about them being drafted.
81:45What a gauntlet there. The second one that you have here is a little bit more of a critical point because people are actually drafting the Broncos defense.
81:52And again, this is a defense. It sort of goes back to the Josh Allen quarterback thing where he's a great player.
81:59He can be Superman against anyone and go out and put up a huge total.
82:03And yet he's going to have to deal with a tough slate to start the year.
82:07Broncos defense the same. We have the Chiefs, the Jags, the Rams, and the 49ers.
82:11Those are four really good offenses. Those are four really quality quarterbacks.
82:15Like even if Patrick Mahomes isn't quite himself to start the season, even if he isn't as mobile as he was last
82:21year, which was a huge part of his game last season, he's still so smart out there.
82:25They're going to find ways to move the ball.
82:28They're going to do well. And the Broncos are going to be fine.
82:32Like they'll be okay for you. But we also see when in terms of some of these like really good defenses, they might not come through, right?
82:39It can be very up and down in the second half last season.
82:43For example, the Seahawks in their last nine games, they were very good defense.
82:47They were the highest scoring fantasy defense. And yet in four of those games, they were held to four points or less, which is terrible.
82:53You don't want that in your defense spot, right?
82:56So it's a very volatile position. And again, that's why I would much rather play the matchups and have that kind of
83:02extra feather in your cap going into the week, knowing that the opponent isn't going to be quite as good versus the
83:08Broncos defense having to deal with some offenses that are going to put up huge numbers, right?
83:13Throughout the season, all of these offenses are offenses we're targeting for fantasy, could be really good this year.
83:18So it's just something to keep in mind that as good as the Broncos defense is, they're going to have to deal with some very quality offenses.
83:26The numbers might not be as good in that opening month.
83:29All right. That is going to do it for today's show.
83:32Boone, hell of a show. Full nerd out session here with our guy, Justin Boone.
83:36And I think this stuff is going to be really good for you guys to remember over the course of this month
83:42as you prepare to draft your fantasy teams. And speaking of drafting fantasy teams, yeah, that's right.
83:4729 days of fantasy continues to roll on here.
83:49It is Yahoo Fantasy Football's 29th year. To celebrate day 8 of 29, we are revealing.
83:54Drum roll, please. Death Leagues are back with a refreshed look here on Yahoo.
83:57We've got new standing pages, teams grouped by Death Watch, at risk, safe, notifications when your season is in danger.
84:03Oh, just the anxiety is going to be off the charts and a sharper new design.
84:07I played one of these last year. Absolute blast.
84:10Probably the most fun I had playing fantasy all last year.
84:13So definitely, if you guys haven't tried it, definitely get, make sure you do it.
84:17Same rules apply. Don't finish last. Tomorrow, we will be back on this very YouTube channel.
84:22Subscribe if you haven't already. Ray Garvin is going to join me to talk biggest wide receiver debates we have between reception, perception, and the Trinity.
84:29Focusing on those round four to six wide receivers, which you talked about today, that's going to be a critical area for people to figure out.
84:36We're going to help you do that tomorrow, live at 4 p.m.
84:39Eastern on this YouTube channel. Until then, we are out.