PodcastFrom Yahoo Fantasy Forecast
The 2026 'All-Upside' team: The player with highest ceiling in each round
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 22 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 6, 2026
Published
Thu, August 6, 2026
24
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Ja'Marr ChaseJaylen WaddleZay FlowersAntonio WilliamsBrock BowersChigoziem OkonkwoChris GodwinColston LovelandEmeka EgbukaJayden DanielsJayden ReedJordyn TysonLuther BurdenMalik Nabers
Player analysis
Player insights
Antonio Williams
NegativeUsage6:23
The signing of Stefon Diggs puts a damper on the year-one expectations for rookie Antonio Williams, who was previously viewed as a potential contributor in the Washington offense.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveValue40:01
Matt Harmon identifies Brock Bowers as the premier upside swing in the second round (ADP 13-24), potentially creating a 'tier of one' at tight end. Bowers is a rare talent who wins from multiple alignments, evidenced by 167 targets from out-wide or slot positions over the last two seasons and a 7.0 air yards per target average. He is expected to benefit from an efficiency boost in the Raiders' offense under Clint Kubiak and improved quarterback play.
Insight pageChigoziem Okonkwo
NegativeUsage8:51
Chris Allen notes that the addition of Stefon Diggs negatively impacts the outlook for players operating in the short-to-intermediate middle of the field, specifically mentioning Chigoziem Okonkwo as a late-round tight end whose prospects have changed.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue68:48
Matt Harmon views Godwin as a high-upside ninth-round pick who can return to his 2024 form. After returning from injury, Godwin moved back into his power slot role. With a more stable offense and Emeka Buka playing the Z-receiver role, Godwin is expected to leverage his chemistry with Baker Mayfield to provide both a high floor and ceiling.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveValue62:59
Colston Loveland is highlighted as a strong fourth-round value (ADP 39) with significant upside, with Matt Harmon noting he is ranked slightly ahead of his current ADP.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout41:32
Matt Harmon identifies Emeka Egbuka as a high-ceiling breakout candidate, ranking him 14 spots above ADP (32nd overall). Egbuka is moving to the Z receiver role in Zach Robinson's offense, which mirrors the high-volume target role previously held by Drake London.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveBreakout13:26
Chris Allen identifies Ja'Marr Chase as the highest-upside player in the first round. Chase combines elite talent with a strong situation, evidenced by his evolution into a versatile receiver who can win from the slot and generate yards after the catch, while playing with a healthy Joe Burrow.
Insight pagePositiveProjection38:53
Despite potential offensive scheme limitations and the need for better play-calling innovation, Ja'Marr Chase remains a high-upside first-round pick who is set up to crush in fantasy football.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection10:59
Matt Harmon views the addition of Stefon Diggs as a reason to be even more excited about Jayden Daniels, who is locked in as his QB4. Daniels' rushing ability combined with an improved receiving corps makes him an easier draft pick.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveBreakout77:16
Matt Harmon identifies Jaden Reed as a high-upside 11th-round pick. Reed is an efficient route runner who could inherit the high-leverage third-down and boundary targets previously handled by Romeo Dobbs. His versatility, including occasional backfield usage, makes him a strong investment in the Packers' offense.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
PositiveValue40:10
Matt Harmon is extremely high on Jalen Waddle, ranking him 20 spots above ADP and viewing him as a third-round pick rather than a fourth-rounder. Waddle is expected to shift into a 'slot Z' role, a major change from his previous usage as an outside receiver.
Insight pagePositiveProjection66:50
Jalen Waddle is identified as a high-upside fourth-round receiver option, with his situation alongside Bo Nix noted as a key factor for his potential.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveBreakout64:23
Matt Harmon highlights Tyson as a high-upside ninth-round pick (91st overall ADP). Tyson excels against zone coverage, ranking in the top five of all prospects charted since 2021. He fits the Saints' intermediate passing scheme under Tyler Shuck and Kellen Moore, and with limited competition for targets outside of Chris Olave, he is primed for a significant role.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveSleeper47:47
Luther Burden is a high-upside fifth-round target. Despite a slow start to his rookie season, he showed elite efficiency (2.69 yards per route run) during his late-season stretch. He is now fully integrated into the Bears' offense and is expected to thrive in his second year.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout48:35
Malik Nabers is the highest-upside third-round pick (ADP 35) if he remains healthy. Despite concerns about his injury history and the Giants' potentially run-heavy offense under Matt Nagy, Nabers demonstrated elite target-earning ability as a rookie, leading all wide receivers in target share. His efficiency on timing routes remained high regardless of the quarterback, and the surrounding personnel, including Cam Scaife and Isaiah Likely, may provide a more stable offensive environment than his rookie season.
Insight pageMike Evans
NegativeBust54:07
Mike Evans presents a polarized range of outcomes: he is either a high-end WR1 if healthy or a season-ruining injury risk. He is expected to play the Brandon Aiyuk role in the 49ers' offense, which offers significant target upside if he stays on the field.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveUsage39:47
Quentin Johnston showed significant improvement last season, and there is no clear talent gap between him and other receivers in his group, making situation the primary differentiator for fantasy value.
Insight pageRachaad White
NegativeUsage9:06
Chris Allen suggests that the addition of Stefon Diggs puts a damper on the output of pass-catching running backs like Rachaad White, who were previously targeted as mid-to-late round options.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue60:00
Matt Harmon identifies Stevenson as a high-upside seventh-round pick, noting he reclaimed the RB1 role late in the 2025 season after injury and fumbles. During the playoffs, Stevenson commanded a 61% rushing rate, 55% route rate, and 100% of goal-line carries. With an improved Patriots offense featuring Drake Maye and new pass-catchers, Stevenson is positioned for more scoring opportunities.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveValue53:59
Rome Odunze is a strong value in the sixth round, with Matt Harmon ranking him 25 spots ahead of his 69th overall ADP. Harmon notes that fantasy managers do not need to choose between Odunze and Burden, as both are valuable pieces of the Bears' offense.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue5:39
Matt Harmon ranks Diggs as his WR42 (94th overall) but notes he could be argued into the WR39-40 range. Diggs remains a viable late-round pick with mid-round upside, as he is still an elite separator against man coverage, ranking top-10 in yards per route run last season.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
NegativeRole7:38
Matt Harmon and Chris Allen agree that the addition of Stefon Diggs does not require moving Terry McLaurin down in rankings. McLaurin's role as a primary perimeter X-receiver and his usage in explosive plays remain intact, and the two receivers are expected to complement rather than cancel each other out.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue40:06
Zay Flowers is highlighted as a top situational play due to his connection with Lamar Jackson, placing him among the receivers with the best outlooks in his draft tier.
Insight pagePositiveUsage66:06
Zay Flowers is considered a high-upside fourth-round receiver, primarily due to his situation with Lamar Jackson, though there is a desire to see him utilized more frequently in the red zone.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Big show for you here today. It's all about upside.
0:03It's all about ceiling. Upside. It wins championships. Don't know if you've heard that.
0:07Chris Allen and I go through the first 12 rounds of Yahoo ADP and pick the highest upside player in each of those rounds.
0:14Listen, a lot of good picks, okay? Especially in round four.
0:17We got to do a whole discussion about the round four wide receivers and who has the highest ceiling.
0:23And folks, that was a tough exercise, okay? It's easy to say early round players have big time upside, but what about those mid rounds?
0:30That is where you truly want to go. You win your fantasy football championships.
0:34And that's what we're going to discuss today. We're going to help you with that.
0:39All that and more coming up on today's show.
0:41Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:45Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast. And it is a hell of a day to talk ball and joining me to do just that.
0:52Two triumphant returns in back-to-back days. What a time to be alive.
0:55It is our good friend, our guy, Chris Allen.
0:58Chris, what's going on, man? Good to have you back on the show.
1:02I mean, my brother, I'll tell you this. I am refreshed and ready to roll.
1:06And for two reasons here, I'll tell you why.
1:09I mean, first, as some folks can tell from my background, I've got some new digs.
1:13I mean, if you saw me on Fantasy Football Live last year, recap every Sunday night with this wonderful man sitting next to me.
1:21It looked like I was in a dungeon. My wife and I, we were trying to sell our house and get out
1:27of there and try and find a better spot.
1:30So we got there. Although, when I was actually talking to our realtor as we were selling our house, and I was
1:36expressly told that noting my office space as the site where an award-winning podcast was being recorded, that's actually not a solid
1:43reason for people to buy the house. It's not.
1:45I tried. I tried. I tried. I tried to toss it out there.
1:49No, but no bites. But anyway, I also got to take some time for us to settle into our house.
1:55And now, like in doing so, I didn't have to argue throughout the spring about whether or not Devon A.
2:01Chan is still worth a second round pick because he's got he has to work with Malik Willis.
2:06I could mark myself safe from the Luther Burden and Roma Dunze Wars that happened throughout most of the summer.
2:12Like, I've seen all that stuff waged across my timeline.
2:15I was away from all of that. So now I get to slide back into the co-host or guest chair, kick it
2:21with you for a bit after spending some time with the rest of our brethren in Canton.
2:26So like I said, I'm ready and I'm excited to talk ball with you again, my man.
2:31Well, two things here. One, I'm just going to go ahead and cross that off the list of potential selling points with
2:38this piece of property here, because I did think that would increase the value of the home.
2:43But I guess not. Hopefully we still bring value to you all.
2:46And we're going to do that today because Chris, buddy, saddle back up.
2:50We're going to do a lot of debating, a lot of back and forth on some players today.
2:55And the particular debates we're going to be having is who are the highest upside picks in each round of Yahoo ADP right now?
3:02That's right. We're going to be building the all upside team here, essentially the highest ceilings in each round.
3:08Because guess what, folks? Upside wins championships. Don't know if you've heard that.
3:12I don't know if you've heard that from any particular fantasy analyst lately, but it does seem to be ringing throughout the
3:18halls of fantasy football lore at this point. So Chris and I are going to go round by round.
3:24And we're going to alternate through 12 rounds here and 12 players to pick the guys with the most upside, essentially.
3:30Who are going to be the ones that are responsible for the fantasy championships this year?
3:35But before we do that, we do have some news for you all out there.
3:39Yes, Stefan Diggs has finally signed a one-year deal with the Washington Commanders.
3:43So cue up a little fantasy fallout from this one here, Chris.
3:47This is a move that we all expected to kind of have go down for a while now.
3:52Honestly, it looked like there was not that many seats available for Diggs.
3:56And it kind of felt like, hey, the commanders are going to go into camp and see what do we got from our young guys?
4:03Right. Like, is there a Traylon Burks revival? Is Antonio Williams ready to start right away as a third round pick?
4:09Looks like the answer is no, because they went ahead and get Stefan Diggs here, who is from the DMV area.
4:15Actually, we played ball at Maryland. He's from the area.
4:18He's been working out here. So doesn't have to do a lot of commuting to get to Washington to play for the commanders here.
4:25What is your reaction to Diggs going to Washington now that it is officially official?
4:30It made sense the moment I heard that the news was dropping that he was eventually going to wind up signing with the commanders.
4:37And then two minutes later, the deal actually goes through, because if you looked at their current personnel, it just seemed like
4:43he'd be the type of player that slots right into their receiver core.
4:47Because, yeah, was it cool to see Traylon Burks kind of have that revival that you mentioned earlier towards the back end of last season?
4:54Absolutely. That probably got him kicking around on a couple of dynasty squads where it's just I'm being too stubborn to let it go.
5:02So having him go on there, seeing him show up.
5:04But of course, I mean, look at the other guys that they've got still sitting there.
5:09Van Jefferson, Deami Brown. I mean, even Luke McCaffrey that some folks were thinking could turn into something.
5:14It didn't seem like this offense with its personnel was going to match some of the hype that we're thinking about coming
5:21into the season because Jaden Daniels is coming back healthy.
5:24They add to their running back crew, which I know we'll probably talk about later on in this particular show.
5:30But there's been enough there that nucleus in the offense to generate some hype over the last couple of seasons, especially with their change at play caller.
5:38Is this the year that they can try and get back to something or be something of relevance within the NFC East?
5:44I think so. But I mean, there needs to be some sort of power behind that receiving or that passing game out alongside Terry McLaurin.
5:51So I think him playing still on the outside, having digs, being able to work as the Z or more in the slot.
5:58I think that kind of that those two complement each other really well.
6:02So I think, again, looking back on it right now, hindsight being 2020, this makes absolute sense.
6:07Yeah, I mean, it just felt like a kind of inevitable essentially here that digs was going to land with this team.
6:13And I think it's a great move for all involved here.
6:17You mentioned that Washington certainly needed the help. But this does put a little damper on year one expectations for Antonio Williams.
6:23That's definitely the case. You know, I mean, there's no doubt about it.
6:27A guy that, you know, is certainly someone in dynasty leagues I still want to have.
6:32But, you know, Boone and I were really excited about him the night after round two of the draft.
6:37And we are going to jump back in here and kind of adjust those expectations at this point.
6:43But otherwise, like, yeah, there's a lot of opportunity in Washington for someone to step up and immediately be a contributor.
6:49Digs, I think, can absolutely still play. I mean, last season he was like a top 10 receiver in yards per route
6:55run against man coverage, which I think the film backs up.
6:58Like he can still get open. He can still separate in a short to intermediate area at an extremely high level.
7:05They needed kind of a layup producer. So digs right now for me, Chris, I have him as my 94th overall player wide receiver 42.
7:12I could hear an argument that the guys in this tier for which for me is kind of that like Michael Pittman,
7:18Quentin Johnston, Stefan Diggs, Jordan Addison, Makai Lemon. I can hear an argument that he should be the top there.
7:24Like he should be closer to wide receiver 40, wide receiver 39 maybe.
7:28But very much a viable late round draft pick is Stefan Diggs, mid round draft pick maybe if things go well.
7:34Does this cause you to move Terry McLaurin down at all?
7:38Because I had him at wide receiver 20. I think I'm right now going to leave him there.
7:43But do you think we need to maybe move McLaurin down at all in wake of this news?
7:48My knee jerk reaction is no. And the reason I'm thinking about it in that manner is because of how he's typically been used on the field.
7:56He's been still there perimeter like primary X receiver, the guy that's being used downfield.
8:00And Jane Daniels has still been able to connect with him multiple times throughout the season.
8:05Now, do I see McLaurin hitting the same highs from a touchdown standpoint like we saw a couple of years ago?
8:11No. But can he still be that type of player that when they still need to create explosives is he going to
8:18be on the other end of those passes? I can see that happening.
8:22If Jane Daniels gets into those pressure or obvious passing situations, will he still look to Terry McLaurin as he had back in like the 2024s timeframe?
8:30Yeah, I can still see that happening as well.
8:32So the usage for Terry McLaurin I don't think changes things because as I think we can both agree, both the way
8:39that those two operate on the field, McLaurin and Diggs, they complement each other versus canceling each other out.
8:44Now, the one guy I would say would be impacted by it would be guys that operate in the middle, short to
8:51intermediate parts of the field or across the middle, like Chica Conquo that just came.
8:55A lot of folks are looking at him as like that late round tight end that's going to be out there.
9:01Running routes, catching a few passes here and there, the prospects of his outlook now change.
9:06Even the running backs, the guys like Rashad White that were going to be those pass catching type RBs that we would
9:12want to target in the middle of late rounds, puts a damper on their output as well.
9:17So Terry McLaurin, just because of where he's typically used, I'm not moving him down just yet.
9:22But I would say for right now, over the next couple of weeks, let's see how things start to develop in camp.
9:29Let's see where he's like, if there are any more news that would make me change my mind.
9:34But for right now, I think McLaurin, where he's drafted right now, like that fourth-ish round, fourth, fifth round, somewhere in there,
9:41I think it's fine for his price. Yeah, that's my initial instinct as well.
9:45I mean, the reasons to be excited about Terry McLaurin were threefold this year, in addition to the fact that he's healthy
9:51and not coming off a contract dispute. One, Jaden Daniels is healthy and he's back.
9:56Okay, that's obviously still the case. Two, I think Washington's offense is said to be pretty dynamic and pretty potent this year.
10:02If anything, adding a true secondary threat actually will help that equation.
10:06And then three, it's that Terry McLaurin is going to get the most dynamic, I think, deployment and move around role of his career.
10:13And I don't think Diggs really affects that either.
10:15I mean, because again, the bar to clear for Terry having a more dynamic pre-snap role is just so low compared to
10:22what it was with Cliff Kingsbury because nobody moves their receivers around less than Cliff Kingsbury.
10:27So it's going to be more movement-based this year regardless.
10:29But even still, like Diggs last year was a 52.3% slot alignment player.
10:33I think he can play outside a little bit.
10:36So it's not a pure slot option. McLaurin will still get some reps from the slot.
10:41He'll still get some reps off ball because Diggs is so good against man coverage.
10:45Ultimately, I think that doesn't really change the course for Terry McLaurin either.
10:49So Diggs officially kind of a top 100 player for us in fantasy football.
10:53A 9th, 10th round type player in fantasy. And then Terry McLaurin, for me at least, is not moving down the list.
10:59And Chris, this just makes me want to draft more of Jaden Daniels as well.
11:04He goes early in Yahoo drafts in particular. But right now I've got him locked in as my QB4.
11:09I could hear an argument that he's QB3 ahead of Joe Burrow.
11:13Just a really good year ahead for Jaden Daniels as long as he can stay healthy.
11:18No, I agree with that. And those are the types of quarterbacks where you need not just the passing portion of it, but also the rushing.
11:25And of course, Jaden Daniels comes with a rushing part without a doubt.
11:29So now if he has more options to continue to buoy his passing production, now with an extra option with a guy like Stefan Diggs.
11:36The type of guy that you know can go out there and get you a bucket when you need to.
11:42Continue to convert on third downs. Keep that offense on schedule.
11:46Then Jaden Daniels becomes, I think, I would say, an easier click for where he's drafted right now.
11:51All right. We are going to take our first quick break.
11:54We come back. We're revealing our highest upside players in each round.
11:58We will get into that right after this. All right.
12:01We're back. And my voice is back. I'm being told my microphone sounds much better.
12:05I apologize to the people out there in the YouTube comments that heard me talking through the McDonald's headset there.
12:11That is not the intention ever on this podcast.
12:13This is a high quality operation. And Chris, I'm pulling the curtain back for the people here.
12:18That's how much I care about the viewers and the listeners to this show.
12:23Anyways, let's get into it here. It's time to reveal the highest upside players in every single round of Yahoo drafts right
12:29now, or at least the first 12 rounds here.
12:32So, Chris, I cede the floor to you. We're going to go back and forth here, alternate each round.
12:37You're going to get the first round. Who's the highest upside player in the first round of Yahoo drafts right now?
12:43All right. Round one. All right. Let's do this.
12:46So, it might have been our favorite or everybody's favorite uncle, Sigmund Blum, the mayor of Narrative Street that said, elite talent
12:53comes at the intersection of talent and situation. In the first round, there's no question that you need both.
12:58Because I heard you and my guy and our guy, actually, Ray G, talking about Jonathan Taylor yesterday when looking for some
13:05of your favorite plays out of each round. And you mentioned how the Colts were a juggernaut of an offense and JT just being this absolute stellar runner.
13:13So, again, talent, situation. So, if I'm looking for a guy with the skills at the position along with the situation, I
13:19mean, I don't know who I'd pick. I mean, you really got to search some of those wide receivers in the first
13:26round in order to figure out who would really fit into that type of archetype of wide receiver.
13:31No, man, I'm kidding. It's Jamar Chase. Come on, y'all.
13:34I mean, let's not kid a kidder here. Let's not do this.
13:38Of course, I'll play the homer card. I'll get it.
13:40I will cop to it and I'll play the homer card.
13:44But he meets those two requirements that I was just talking about, talent and situation.
13:48I mean, last season alone, he ranked third in total target shares amongst all wide receivers.
13:53Top 10 in yards per route run, first downs per route run, yak per reception.
13:57I mean, insert metric here, you'd see Jamar Chase's name up towards the top.
14:01But I'd say the other thing that has really started to at least click for me and especially, I mean, y'all see the shirt.
14:08I mean, come on. We've also seen him evolve as a wide receiver as he's come since he's come into league, but four or five years ago.
14:16I mean, that first season, 2021 season, magical season all the way up until the Super Bowl.
14:21I don't want to talk about it. More of a perimeter wide receiver, right?
14:25All those deep shots between him and Joe Burrow.
14:28Deep threat coming out. 13 air yards per target.
14:31But now, as you've seen him mold into this all pro talent, more of a slot receiver, seeing the power, seeing the
14:37yards after the catch, seeing the forced missed tackle rate continue to pick up.
14:41I mean, all those things. I'm still remembering that game from, I think it was week four from the 2024 season against
14:48the Panthers where he catches that slant and then winds up like pinballing off of like four or five defenders and going
14:54for like a 60 yard plus touchdown. I mean, that is the type of wide receiver that Jamar Chase has been since he's come into the league.
15:02And so that's the talent, right? But also we need the situation.
15:06A healthy Joe Burrow. A healthy, I'm like literally knocking on wood right now.
15:10A healthy Joe Burrow. Top 10 in EPA per drop back when healthy.
15:14And we've also seen Burrow's pressure to sack rate go down slowly over the last few years.
15:19I know people still like to cite that. What was it?
15:22Nine sacks against the Titans when they went into the playoffs when they went to the Super Bowl.
15:27Also, I mean, the offensive line has improved. Talking about Dylan Fairchild and Marius Mims.
15:32I mean, all those guys across the front that have now allowed him to still operate the way that he wants to.
15:38The style that he likes to play primarily in shotgun, even though they've been discussing him playing more under center throughout most of training camp.
15:45So, I mean, all that to say, he's got, he being Jamar Chase, he already has the talent.
15:51I don't think there's any question about it. He has the situation with his best friend from college still throwing passes to him.
15:57They also have that nucleus around him being able to play with T.
16:01Higgins. And still have, and also Chase Brown, who's also operating as a receiver out of the backfield as well.
16:07That entire core, that ecosystem, now generates enough plays that they are knocking on the red zone more often than not against opposing defenses.
16:14So, again, bring all that together. Jamar Chase, talent, situation, that gives you upside.
16:18So, for me, if I'm drafting in the first round, I have that top three, top four pick.
16:24Jamar Chase is that guy that I'm clicking every single time.
16:27Yeah, I'm with you. I have him as my second overall player right now, just ahead of Bijan Robinson.
16:32And honestly, in full PPR, I think there's a really strong argument that he should be the first player off the board
16:39ahead of a guy like even Jameer Gibbs. I think Gibbs is awesome.
16:43Obviously, I think Bijan's awesome. But, yeah, Jamar at this point, you said it really well, man.
16:48He's just so good at everything. And the deployment change for him that has really kind of been a process over the last few years.
16:55You know, back in his rookie season in reception perception, he took 85.7% of his snaps on the line of scrimmage.
17:01Then these past few seasons, it's been like in the 60s.
17:04Like it's something that's steadily going down for him.
17:07And this goes back to a conversation I had with him, I think, going into the 2023 season, I want to say,
17:14or maybe coming just out of the 2023 season.
17:16He really talked about how he wants to play more snaps from the slot.
17:20He wanted to win from all different alignments. That's something they've been doing more and more with him.
17:26We showed that if we could play that highlight from training camp earlier that we had from the NFL.com, not the Ray
17:32GQ account, but the great account, Ray GQ account, the NFL.com account.
17:36Yeah, here we go. This play here is a perfect example of why that matters so much.
17:41Like you can see, you can't really see, but Jamar starts lined out in the slot and then he runs this out
17:47cut here, which by the way, he's told me is his favorite route to run.
17:51And this is just like an unstoppable combination between him and Joe Burrow.
17:55And as long as Burrow is healthy, man, there's no reason why Jamar Chase can't have like the best season of his career basically at any point, man.
18:03I honestly think it's he's he's this is terrible analysis, Chris, but whatever.
18:07He's due essentially at some point for his in his career for a, you know, 20 plus touchdown season.
18:13Right. Like that. He's just a receiver talent wise situation wise of his quarterback and stay healthy.
18:18It's all there for him. The fact that he plays with T Higgins only makes his situation better because T can take
18:24those outside on ball snaps to allow Jamar Chase to do all the fun move around stuff.
18:29So I think this is a great pick by you that because this upside could come basically at any moment of his career.
18:36I would throw it back to you, though, with this question.
18:39You know, this is this is kind of the thing that's always surrounding the Cincinnati Bengals offense is that they are more, you know, shotgun spread.
18:47It's what Joe Burrow wants to do. Get in the gun.
18:50Don't want to turn his back to the defense, you know, do all the fun, you know, point point stuff at the line of scrimmage.
18:58OK, I get it. But there's kind of a constant push and pull that if they would just, you know, get under
19:04center more and blend the run in the past, would their offense be more efficient?
19:08It sounds like reports out of training camp, you know, some of the clips you see out of training camp, that stuff's
19:15not going all that well for them as they are trying to install it.
19:19Do you think Chase would be better served if they just scrap all that and live in the shotgun spread world?
19:25Or would his efficiency and the overall potency of the offense actually get better if they were more dynamic as an under
19:32center blend the run in the past type offense?
19:34Which way would you rather if you could as a Bengals fan, would you rather see the fork in the road?
19:40Which way would they go down? I would prefer that they continue to work on trying to blend that run and pass
19:47game because we've seen it so often over these past few years, even when Burrow has been healthier, when he hasn't.
19:53Those slow starts, their inability to have essentially if the Joe Burrow go do cool ish, if that doesn't work, we have no backup plan.
20:00There's really no other way that they can generate offense unless it's, you know, Jamar and Joe and T out there doing what they do best.
20:08And so without having that type of run game where it's not just the explosives that Chase Brown can provide, but even
20:15just from a down to down standpoint, his ability to break tackles and also like pull a couple of guys here and
20:21there, despite his like smallish or relatively small frame compared to other running backs, having being able to lean on that.
20:27So instead of living in third and seven, you're looking at more at third and four, third and five.
20:33Instead of taking a sack on first down, you're actually able to set up a manageable second down.
20:38Those types of situations just haven't been there for the Bengals in years past.
20:42So if they're able to actually use their either more efficient passing game by involving whether it's play action or even with
20:49the reintegration of Eric, all the tight end. They drafted a couple of years ago, having more of those guys available to them.
20:55Like my hope is this is like my pie in the sky dream, Matt, if I'm being quite honest with you, because
21:02Zach Taylor is supposed to be like the Sean McVay guy or so he comes from that tree because he had a cup of coffee with him.
21:10However many years ago. And then the Bengals wound up taking him.
21:13It's can he also learn from the things that McVay has been doing?
21:17Because if this, you know, 13 personnel having multiple tight ends on the field thing has become such the like so in vogue over this last offseason.
21:25Can they start to involve some of their tight ends a bit more act like they're giving Joe Burrow a bit more
21:32of that those max protection type of looks because you do have all back.
21:36You do have whether it's juice sample, whether it's I mean, Tanner Hudson, whether it's I mean, insert any of the tight
21:42ends they've carried over the past few years. Can you can you create some of those looks so that instead of having
21:49your typical 13 personnel where it was back in the day of Jamar Chase, T Higgins and then Tyler Boyd or now it's Andre Yoshivosh.
21:56Can you have just Chase and Higgins on the field with a couple of tight ends and still allow for Chase to
22:02do his thing and create some of those explosives downfield by switching up the looks for the defense instead of your static
22:09three person or three wide receivers on the field.
22:11So I would like to see more of that innovation.
22:14I would like to see more of that evolution of this offense, but still still having Chase as your lead guy, because
22:21that would allow him to free him up for some more of those same looks that we've seen year in and year out.
22:28And also allow the offense to continue to at least be a bit more, let's say, in rhythm with itself versus.
22:34All right, Burrow, go and do your thing, create some magic.
22:37And then Chase, you do the same thing. Higgins, you do the same.
22:41Yeah, I would like to see it, too. And I do think it comes down to I think it comes down to
22:47Joe Burrow is a big part of it. Like, what does he want to meet these guys in the middle?
22:53And yet you did bring up the Zach Taylor thing.
22:56And I typically default to kind of be like, hey, you know, Zach Taylor probably wants to do this stuff and the
23:03quarterback doesn't really want to do it. So he does what the quarterback wants to do, because you should do what your great quarterback wants to do.
23:11At the same time, like, right. What are you going to do?
23:14Played Jake Browning. We know how that goes. I mean, he's on the Bucs roster now, but, you know, Zach Taylor also
23:21gets his coaching roots from kind of like I mean, he was one that Dolphin staff like Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman,
23:27like very old school West Coast Packers guys. So, you know, maybe he doesn't have these tricks in the bag.
23:33So I would love to see it. But I think even if we don't see it, Jamar Chase is set up to
23:39crush in fantasy football as a super high upside first round pick.
23:43All right, let's go to the second round here and I'll pick a lot of good names in the second round, man.
23:49The second round is really enticing at all different kinds of positions here.
23:53And yet, as I'm looking through round two, essentially, you know, picks 20 ish to 24 ADP wise.
23:58There's a name that just really stands out to me.
24:01Pick 12, excuse me, pick 13 to like pick 24.
24:04And the name that really stands out to me, despite the fact that there are running backs I really like here, it's got to be Brock Bowers.
24:12It has to be Brock Bowers as the upside swing here, because I do think that there's a tier one of tight
24:19ends, which is obviously him, Trey McBride and Colson Loveland.
24:22But I think if there's one guy that could this year make it like a tier of one, actually, and I am
24:28a massive difference maker at the onesie position. I think it is Brock Bowers for a lot of different reasons here.
24:34One, he is the actual type of tight end, Chris, and it's so, so rare that this guy actually exists that can really win from multiple alignments.
24:42You know, can really be a down the field type of presence from multiple alignments since he came into the league or
24:49at least last two seasons, 2024 to 2025, 1.82 yards per route run from the out wide and slot position.
24:55He is behind guys like George Kittle and Colson Loveland, which, okay, those guys obviously are ballers too.
25:00But the amount of targets that he has gotten as an out wide or slot receiver, the targets go 57 for Kittle, 48 for Colson Loveland, 167.
25:08167 for Brock Bowers. Obviously, Trey McBride has been great at this.
25:11He has 197 such targets the last two seasons, but the average depth of target is 5.77 for Trey McBride.
25:17It is seven air yards per target for Brock Bowers.
25:20If you just want to look at true out wide snaps, again, 1.98 yards per route run for Brock Bowers with an
25:27air yard per target figure of 8.6. 47 such targets, which is behind only Travis Kelsey in the last two seasons combined.
25:33I mean, he really is the rare, you know, tight end who can not do wide receiver things, but can win from
25:40multiple alignments for a team that has, you know, some interesting receivers, but receivers who aren't getting great reviews out of training camp so far.
25:47You know, Jalen Naylor's the Trey Tucker's the my guy Jack Besh not looking so great right now.
25:52Like Brock Bowers is just set up to crush this year from a target perspective.
25:57And, you know, if this offense is half as good as what Seattle's offense was with Clint Kubiak last year, I think
26:03at least we're going to get an... Here's the deal.
26:06Even if it's not that good, it's going to be an efficiency boost from what we saw last year when the coaches
26:12were just pretty much completely disengaged there in Las Vegas.
26:15So I think Bowers at a ADP of 20th overall could be one of those guys that just totally stands out from the field this year.
26:23Oh, I 100% agree. And I'm typically not into early round tight ends.
26:27But since we're talking about ceiling here on this show, I mean, he has to stick out as that guy that can at least exceed his draft cost.
26:35So I saw a tweet a few weeks ago actually referencing some work from our good buddy Rich Rebar.
26:41And he said simply put that the tight end one over the last five years has been the leaders in routes run, which kind of makes sense intuitively.
26:49Because if your play caller wants you out there getting cardio, you should at least expect to see some targets coming your way unless you're TJ Hawkinson.
26:57But still, if I took that same study, but then just kind of expand it to look at, well, what happens with the top three tight ends?
27:05And let's kind of try and find a way to compare them to wide receivers that typically get drafted in the same area.
27:12Average wide receiver rank for top three tight ends has been about the wide receiver nine.
27:16So that works for where Brock Bowers is currently being drafted at.
27:20I think if you compared him to the wide receivers being drafted, it's like wide receiver eight, nine.
27:25So it's a solid bet just on its face.
27:28But then also, if you look at the profile of elite tight ends over the last five seasons, about a 20, 21%
27:34target share from an efficiency standpoint around 10% like first downs per route run, 1.79 yards per route run.
27:40I mean, and you mentioned Bowers, like yards per route run from being outside.
27:44I mean, he smashed pretty much every one of those metrics in the one year that he's healthy, his rookie season.
27:50So now if you're telling me that he's going to be back healthy, he's got one of the better play callers in the league.
27:57And also, let's say a potential, I would assume it's going to be a quarterback upgrade between either Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza.
28:04I mean, sign me up for Brock Bowers, like in the second round, just because of the talent, again, that we know
28:10that he has based off of his rookie campaign.
28:13But then also the situation that we know should be better, at least compared to what he's had over the last two seasons.
28:20Yeah. I mean, this situation is definitely going, it'll be better almost no matter what.
28:24But then the thing that makes me feel really good is, you know, you look at a game where like when he came back off of injury, right?
28:32He comes back off of injury in week 12 last year against the Jaguars, three touchdowns, 13 targets, 12 catches, 13 targets, 12 catches.
28:39And man, he just that that was he was just all over the place.
28:44You know, like from all different formations, 44% of the team area.
28:47I mean, he has multiple games last year, 44% of the area is 55% of the area is 59% of the area
28:53is that just doesn't happen for the most part at the tight end position.
28:58I think it could happen once again in this offense with Clint Kubiak and, you know, definitely some level of improved quarterback play.
29:04I think him and Fernando Mendoza can have a good connection over the long run.
29:09Let's get to the third round here. Chris, who has the highest upside among any third round pick right now?
29:15I mean, the guy with the highest upside that's going in a third round, it has to be Malik neighbors, at least
29:21for me, because if there was an injury setting that we could turn off of this game, that we play neighbors would
29:28be like a like a one to turn guy at minimum.
29:31I mean, but his injury history and the news about during the earlier parts of the season, I think what was it
29:37that charity softball game he's playing in where it showed him limping around for a bit.
29:42I mean, all of those things were reasons why people just wanted to stay away.
29:46But here's the upside case. Let's go back a couple of years ago, his rookie season.
29:51Malik neighbors. He led all wide receivers in target share, not just the guys on his team, all wide receivers.
29:57And so we were at least quickly introduced to how well his college game like translated to the pro style.
30:03I mean, he was playing pretty much all over the place.
30:06I mean, for all of Brian Dayball's faults as a head coach, making sure he got neighbors on the field, but also
30:13moving around the formation wasn't one of them. About a quarter of his routes from the slot.
30:18I mean, you saw him used. I mean, the route diversity was there.
30:21Everything from screens and slants to intermediate post routes and everything.
30:25Everything. I mean, I was also especially impressed to see how well he was able to perform despite who was under center.
30:31Because remember, like in that season, he had Daniel Jones.
30:34He had Drew Locke. I think he even had like a game or two with Tommy Cutlets under center.
30:40But it never changed his efficiency from a receiving standpoint.
30:43I mean, if you look at his efficiency just on timing routes.
30:46So like comebacks, outbreakers, hitches. I mean, he stayed above like 3.0 yards per route run when it was mostly like Daniel Jones and Drew Locke.
30:54So that ability to be this like all pro level type of route runner, we've seen that pretty much year in and year out.
31:01And even last season. So the first like three games before he went down the knee injury was pretty much more of the same.
31:08I mean, he was at just over a 30% target rate before he went down with injury.
31:13And we've seen enough out of Jackson Dart to say that, yeah, brother, can you please just try and protect yourself as
31:19you're out there running across the field or something along those lines.
31:23But at least the passing acumen is there from Dart.
31:26So again, if I'm getting if I already know the talent, or at least I have a good indication of what Malik Neighbors is from a talent standpoint.
31:34And we at least believe that the situation is solid enough.
31:37Like Dart is a good enough passer to continue to feed Malik Neighbors.
31:41Then again, out of the third round in terms of upside.
31:44Yeah, Malik Neighbors all day long for me. Yeah.
31:47Look, I'm with you, right? I mean, I think he is.
31:50He's the it has to be the answer here, because honestly, like I'm looking at the rest of the third round picks
31:5726 to 35 and Neighbors is the 35th pick in ADP right now.
32:00Now, honestly, I like I'm behind ADP on a lot of these guys more than I am, you know, close to being
32:07ahead of it, except for Neighbors and T Higgins.
32:10The other Bengals receivers, another guy I'm significantly ahead of ADP on that.
32:13I think it's more of like a pretty good player.
32:16I think it's more of a back end second than a mid third or whatever.
32:21But Neighbors I've got is a 30th overall player.
32:23So again, just a few spots ahead of ADP right now.
32:27But I think I'm going to try to present the contrarian case here on Neighbors without acknowledging the injury, you know, kind
32:33of wild card here, because I think that's the long and short of it is if Neighbors is Neighbors and we the
32:39guy we've seen before and he's going in the third round.
32:43It's just if he's healthy, that's a smash. Here's just the counter argument, I guess, if we're playing a little devil's advocate.
32:49Would be that a lot of what we saw in his rookie year was kind of from a target perspective.
32:55A little bit fugazi, a little bit nonsense, right?
32:58Like they weren't running. I was having this conversation over on the fantasy points podcast with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield.
33:04And I was like, if we're if we're if we're safe spacing here, we're not taking anything away from Malik Neighbors, who's
33:10an incredible talent and like right there to me knocking on the door of being a tier one player.
33:16We can be honest that they weren't really running an NFL offense that year with Brian Dable.
33:21They were running like a Malik Neighbors usage scam and Dable will do that.
33:25He'll spam one guy just over and over again, you know, from one receiver alignment and just go for it.
33:31You know, it did start out well in the first, you know, three ish weeks of last season from a target perspective.
33:37But there was also one game where he went completely absent because he's running the dumb Russell Wilson offense where it's all vertical stuff and all that.
33:45So where does Matt Nagy fall on that continuum?
33:48Right. I don't think this gets right now that now that we know Neighbors is healthy.
33:53I think we can get back to being like, OK, but Matt Nagy is the offensive coordinator here.
33:58You know, this team is probably this team is probably going to be very run heavy.
34:03Dart has said that that's the idea of the offense.
34:06It's a John Harbaugh team. You'd imagine they want to be very run heavy.
34:10So do you worry at all, Chris? And again, we're playing devil's advocate here because we agree is the highest upside pick of the third round.
34:17Do you worry at all that like we're going to come in here and see, oh, yeah, Neighbors is a good wide receiver one from a target perspective.
34:26But we're not quite at that, like unbelievable target getting upside that he showed us his rookie season.
34:31I think it's fair to be skeptical about that, because to your point, I remember our guy Nate Tice talking about this
34:37back in 2024 of it's the the pre snap motion that they were running, having tight ends lined up in the backfield.
34:44Just I mean, just doing so many things in order to keep the defense on their toes and then afterwards just throwing it to bleak neighbors shortly thereafter.
34:52And that was the type of offense that they were running back in 2024.
34:56I can see how you would look at that and be like, yeah, it's kind of a Ponzi scheme that they're doing here.
35:03So I think it's completely fair to be skeptical about at least about that portion of it.
35:08But then on the flip side of that, so let's let's assume that let's say the similar like hijinks are going to be going on.
35:15They're going to try and set up some sort of scam like from a from a formation or alignment standpoint to continue to feed neighbors.
35:23OK, fine. I mean, I'll take that. But then on top of that, they also do have at least I would say at least one more.
35:30Let's say one and a half more competent players.
35:33I'm not going to fully go into being like a couple more competent players as compared to where they're at a couple of seasons ago.
35:40But if you do have at least a I would say most of a good running back in Cam Scatterfield, let's say
35:47just because his own injury history, his proclivity to running himself into brick walls like for whatever reason.
35:52So, all right, that's what you want to do.
35:55My guy, that's fine. But if you have at least that level of competency from a running back standpoint, allowing you to
36:01like we're talking with the Bengals, keep your offense on some sort of schedule because you do know that Scatterboot is a
36:08solid runner, like a rusher of the football. Like he is is good in that regard.
36:12So that at least takes some pressure off your quarterback that did add Isaiah likely from the Baltimore Ravens over the offseason.
36:19So that gives you at least one more competent pass catcher to work with the rest of your team that we do
36:25know, like likely once he's on the field, we were hoping to see more of that role when he was with Lamar Jackson.
36:32But at least here in the offseason drumbeat has been they want to try and feature him more as a receiver.
36:38That also lends some credence to the idea that this is not going to be this Mickey Mouse type offense that we
36:45saw from a couple of years ago. But even if they do, they do at least have the personnel to execute it
36:51better than they were at a couple of seasons ago.
36:54So at least I'm I think I would say again, it's fair to be skeptical about where the Giants are at and
37:00how they're going to run this offense. But at least the personnel around neighbors is a bit better than what he had in his rookie year.
37:08I think that's totally fair. Just a variable to consider here as we're weighing the injury designation and what the actual upside is.
37:15But generally, I do agree with you that. Yeah, neighbors is going into late third round.
37:20He has incredible upside there as long as he's shoot 90 percent healthy, which we do need to still see more from
37:26him to know that that is going to be the case.
37:29But that's why we've got a long month here to go in August.
37:33Let's get to the fourth round here. And this is this is my round.
37:37And honestly, Chris, this one's tough, bro, because whereas in the third round, I was like, I don't know.
37:43I don't know. I like anybody from the third round.
37:46It's just all day. Fourth round, though, bro, like there's a lot of players that I think have a ton of upside.
37:52This is in the fourth round, particularly. I mean, you can make an argument like Colson Loveland might be the right answer here.
37:59He has the fourth round ADP 39th overall. I'm a few spots ahead of that on him.
38:04I really like Colson Loveland this year. You know, there are some interesting running backs in this range.
38:09But to me, this Chris is is just the wide receiver round like round for wide receivers.
38:14There are so, so many good picks here. So I actually want to talk this out with you as to who are the guys here.
38:22And right now we're showing my rankings versus overall ADP right now on the screen.
38:26So these are all the guys who currently have fourth round ADPs on Yahoo right now.
38:31But the wide receivers, man, Tedrow McMillan, Zay Flowers.
38:33Just got just got the bag. Jalen Waddle, Lad McConkie, Emeka Ibuka.
38:37I mean, Garrett Wilson. These are all the receivers I want to draft.
38:41I'm pretty much ahead on most of these guys.
38:43So who are we? Who's the highest upside player of this grouping here?
38:47Like if I was to give you just the give you those names, which wide receiver stands out to you as the most upside?
38:54We're going to talk this out together. OK, so if we're going to try and break it down again, upside talent and situation.
39:01I don't think there's anything. There's any one player that sticks out talent wise.
39:05All solid receivers. It's like, yes, would I like to see Tedrow and McMillan used a bit more on in breakers?
39:11Have him see him a bit more from a slot perspective?
39:14Absolutely. And I hope that's the case for him here in year two.
39:18Zay Flowers. Love the fact that he got paid.
39:21Absolutely. Would I like to see him used a bit more on the red zone?
39:25100%. I think everybody would. I mean, you can you can throw darts or throw words at pretty much everybody.
39:31Lad McConkie. Everybody's very high on the Chargers offense this season.
39:34Now they got Mike McDaniel, but it's the pace concerns.
39:37It's also McDaniel is a continued use of using at least focus on the running game.
39:42So that can take away from his looks. And also, I mean, credit where it's due.
39:47Quentin Johnson, he actually showed up pretty well last season.
39:50So it's just like for each wide receiver, there's either like a there's no talent gap.
39:54At least that I'm seeing right here. They would say, oh, yeah, without it, without a doubt, this is a guy that you should take.
40:02So if we just want to look at situation, two guys stick out here.
40:06First one, say flowers. He's got Lamar Jackson. I mean, that's pretty simple.
40:10The other one that's sitting right behind him, Jalen Waddle with Bo Nix.
40:13I mean, this is the team that was essentially a few plays from winding up getting into the Super Bowl.
40:19Bo Nix. I mean, for I would say some of the criticism for where he likes to play in like the more
40:26short and intermediate areas of the field, I would say, and also allowing or at least putting his receivers in putting more
40:32pressure on his receivers to create after the catch versus chucking the ball downfield.
40:36That's where I would say Jalen Waddle to me is the one that sticks out, because again, if we're not looking at
40:43anybody having a at least a large talent gap out of that group, I would say Waddle and flowers are the ones with the best situation.
40:51Yeah, I mean, look, you don't have to talk me into Jalen Waddle.
40:54He's the guy that I'm in this round, the highest on relative to ADP.
40:58I have him 20 spots higher. I think he's a third round pick, not a fourth round pick.
41:04So you don't have to convince me on that.
41:06Hate that I'm making this case as he did pick up a little bit of it, like left practice early with a
41:13little bit of like a cramping or whatever. I'm hoping he just had to go to the bathroom.
41:18No, we'll see. I don't know. But he's probably got a little bit of an injury.
41:23So there is that. That's always present with Waddle.
41:25I'm very in on Waddle. I actually think, though, the more I'm looking at this list, I think the guy that actually
41:32probably has the highest upside might be Emeka Ibuka.
41:35A player that like of all these guys that I could see, like leading the NFL and catches this year.
41:40And he's the guy that I have second highest, you know, relative to ADP.
41:45I have 14 spots higher than ADP. I have 32nd overall.
41:48I think he's a third round pick, not a fourth round pick.
41:51I get that people are still creeped out by the first half, second half splits.
41:56I don't really put a lot of stock into that because number one might just be random to the full picture matters
42:02more than the split the season, this, that and the other.
42:05And we know he's playing with injuries and Baker Mayfield was playing with injuries and all of that.
42:11And I just can't stress enough how critical if you guys have not been listening to the show, you know, all year
42:17long or, you know, again, you tune him back in in August.
42:21Totally fine. Like Mecca Ibuka is getting a role change this year.
42:24The fact that he's going to the Z receiver position and not playing X as he did last year, where he was
42:31mostly an outside on ball receiver over 60 percent of his snaps outside and on the line of scrimmage in the games
42:37that I charted last year for him, basically replacing Mike Evans's role.
42:41It's just so huge. Like, Chris, this was a guy that was a big slot prospect at Ohio State.
42:46You know, he was more of that Z receiver.
42:49That's the role he's going back into here. Like you're seeing the route tree on the screen right now for him.
42:55His best stuff is all of these in breaking routes, which is when you're this Z receiver in Zach Robinson's offense.
43:01That's what Drake London has been the last few years.
43:04Like you're in the slot on about 30 percent of your snaps, but you're mostly an outside on ball receiver, which is what Drake London has been.
43:12And I think it's what a Mecca Ibuka is going to be this year.
43:16Like London's that guy that has that massive target upside in any single game.
43:20And look, I think London is a better player than Ibuka.
43:24But if he takes a second year leap, he's in the right scheme.
43:27He's in the right role. I mean, this is a guy that could lead the NFL in catches this year.
43:33I think it's a dark horse to lead the NFL in catches this year because, you know, in the last variable here,
43:40Chris, is Baker Mayfield's on his like nobody respects me, you know, moment.
43:44He's doing the chip on his shoulder thing, you know?
43:47So I just feel like if I'm talking, I think Waddle's the right pick that like he's the best pick in the fourth round.
43:54I agree with that. But I think upside wise, I kind of think like a Mecca Ibuka might be the guy that
44:00has the highest ceiling of these receivers in the fourth round right now.
44:04So it's funny that we're talking about Ibuka and also Waddle because I could almost make the same case in terms of
44:10how Ibuka was almost miscast within his own offense the same way that Waddle was like during the early parts of his career.
44:17Because if you go back to like 2021, what was he like?
44:21Like almost over a 50% like slot route runner in his first season, Waddle was.
44:25But then they shift him more to the outside.
44:28They bring in Tyreek Hill. So he's asked to play alongside this all-poor ride receiver.
44:32And then whether it was poor play calling, broken offense because he's catching passes from Skylar Thompson or whomever else.
44:38It's just we don't really get a chance to really figure out, well, who is Jalen Waddle and how best deploy him?
44:44And you could probably make the same case for Mekka Ibuka in his first year.
44:49I mean, Mike Evans goes down. He gets shifted out to the outside.
44:53Baker Mayfield's also playing with injuries. We don't know what to make of this entire offense, if not from the wide receivers.
44:59I mean, Bucky Irving is also hurt. So this entire offense is broken.
45:03And without being able to see where he's best deployed at, we're kind of slicing and dicing a one-year sample that's already pretty slim to begin with.
45:11So I'm with you in that looking at Ibuka and trying to see, well, where does he perform best at?
45:17And I think we have an understanding of where that is based off his collegiate data and also where we saw him in flashes and spurts in 2025.
45:25Then also, where does that line up with how Zach Robinson likes to deploy his wide receivers and what we've been hearing out of camp?
45:32So I think there's enough breadcrumbs here that Ibuka kind of does.
45:36He does. I agree with you that he does shake out as probably the guy with the highest ceiling.
45:41I think Waddle will probably give people the most warm fuzzies just because we've seen it before.
45:46And folks are probably more down on the Bucs offense than they are the Broncos offense, just seeing where those two teams
45:53wound up at the back end of 2025. But I do agree with you.
45:57If there's going to be a guy that has like the most upside, I think it's either one of those two guys.
46:03Well, yeah, I think we're in agreement there. And just to put a period on the end of this sentence here, as
46:10you mentioned, one of my big cases for Waddle is just the alignment shift from him.
46:15You know, Sean Payton, there was a quote from a video from Coach Speak Index that came out, I think yesterday, where
46:21Sean Payton was talking about Jalen Waddle is going to be the slot Z receiver.
46:26And I just can't stress enough, as you were saying, how different that is from the last few years.
46:312022 to 2024, Waddle was outside on 77% of his snaps in reception perception, 81% on ball.
46:36Last year, 84% outside, 79% on ball. Huge, huge shift incoming.
46:39And I think these things really matter when we're talking about receivers reaching a ceiling, which is what we think both of these guys can do here.
46:47So fourth round full of a ton of good receivers.
46:50I'm glad we could flesh that out because it's going to be important, Chris, to get those fourth round picks right.
46:56And Abuka and Waddle are the two ones I think that stand out the most to me.
47:01But we are going to take a quick break.
47:04When we come back, we got another big time upside receiver to talk through in round five.
47:09We will get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
47:13Time to get into the highest upside player from round five.
47:16Once again, Chris, a lot of really appealing names in the fifth round of Yahoo ADP right now.
47:21But I'd love to hear who is the guy that you think has the highest ceiling of the fifth rounders.
47:27Man, I don't want to do it. I don't want to do this one.
47:31I'll be honest. Yes, you do. Come on. You know the Simpsons meme where all the kids are crowding around Bart and
47:38they're telling him to say the line and then he says it and then they all cheer afterwards.
47:43I feel like that's what every Luther Burden truther is waiting for us.
47:47They're like, say something about Luther Burden. Just say he has the most upside.
47:51I feel like that's the crowd. Say his yards per round run.
47:54Yes. I feel like that. And I don't want to pour more gasoline on the fire here.
47:59But again, if we're talking about ceiling. All right.
48:02Okay. Before we get on it, let's get the caveats out of the way because you already mentioned it.
48:07Yes. Burden's route rate never got to a full-time starter last year.
48:11Point blank in a story. I mean, that's it.
48:14Yes. It also took him to week 11 to carve out a rotational role, but that's not like too uncommon for rookies.
48:20We've seen it in the past. I mean, yeah, sure.
48:23He was still battling with Olamide Zaccheaus for routes, but okay, that's fine.
48:27It's the Bears offense. They're going to do what they do.
48:30But when you zoom in on that two-ish months of him being the rotational starter of that, boy, things get a little dangerous, brother.
48:37I'm not going to lie to you. I mean, 2.69 yards per route run over that seven to eight week span, 7.5 yards after the catch per reception.
48:45Those are the same stats I'm sure that most folks have been kind of touting over the summertime with all those like burden wars have been going on.
48:54And I know it takes a, it's kind of a wild leap to assume that he's going to be able to keep
49:00up that level of production or that level of efficiency throughout an entire season.
49:04Because I mean, there's really not too many wide receivers are able to sustain that level of production over an entire year.
49:11That's only been three that have done it since the 20, since 2015.
49:14So I'm not expecting burden to be that, but I mean, let's look at the positives.
49:19Like, am I concerned about burden being typecast as a slot only guy because we didn't see him run about a third
49:26of his routes from the interior portion? No, I'm not.
49:29I'm really concerned about that. Even on his perimeter routes, I mean, averaging over like nine and a half air yards per
49:35target, 70% catch rate means solid both inside and out.
49:38Am I concerned about Chicago's offense struggling? Maybe. I mean, it's entirely possible that it might take a little bit longer for
49:44Caleb Williams to really find his rhythm with Ben Johnson.
49:47But the drum season throughout most, or the drum beat throughout most of the off season has been that Caleb Williams is
49:54working on some of the fundamentals that were plaguing him throughout the first year with him and Ben Johnson.
49:59Footwork, being able to play within structure, things that you and I noted when we would sit down on the recap show
50:06on Sundays that it's just, yeah, if things start to break down and you see Caleb Williams scrambling, cool things are about to happen.
50:13I mean, look at the last playoff game that they played in.
50:16But you still need that down-to-down efficiency. You still need the playmakers in order for you to execute a lot of things
50:23that Ben Johnson wants to try and run, play in and play out.
50:27And so, to be clear, I don't... And also, when we say that we like Luther Burden as a second-year player, that's
50:33not to say that's going to happen at the expense of Roma Dunze or even Colston Loven that she mentioned earlier.
50:39But again, if we're talking about upside relative to cost, looking at how well he performed in his first season, if we're
50:46looking at the guys in the fifth round only, I'll say Luther Burden is the guy with the most ceiling.
50:52Yeah, look, you mentioned that there's Luther Burden wars or whatever.
50:55I've said all off-season, I refuse to participate in the culture war that you've got to hate one Bears receiver to love
51:01the other because I'm very much like... I'm a big Roma Dunze guy.
51:05Like, he's in the sixth round, he's looking great to me.
51:09I think he should be a fifth-round pick. Like, here's the thing, though.
51:12I'm also about 13 spots ahead of ADP on Luther Burden as well.
51:16Like, you do not have to hate the other guy to like the other.
51:20You don't have to do it. And I honestly...
51:23I really don't get the argument for why anybody would be out on Luther Burden from an individual standpoint.
51:28If you want... If you like Rome more... And I have Rome...
51:32I'm doing the hedge ranking, Chris. I got Rome one spot ahead of Luther Burden.
51:36But I still have, like I said, from an overall ADP perspective, I have...
51:41Luther Burden 13 spots ahead of the overall ADP because, like, I want this Bears offense.
51:45Like, this offense is going to be incredible this year.
51:48They're going to be... Ben Johnson, year two. Caleb Williams, second year in this offense.
51:53Like, third year in the NFL. All the development notes that you made there.
51:57Like, yeah, he's going to put this thing together.
51:59By the way, this team's going to have to throw the football, okay?
52:03Their defense is not good. They're going to be in a ton of shootout scripts where all these guys are going to get volume.
52:10And then, again, the case on Luther Burden in his own right, I think it's just flat-out simple.
52:16This is a really talented player in one of the best offensive ecosystems in the NFL right now.
52:21And, Chris, you mentioned all the, like, well, he wasn't a full-time...
52:24I don't think that matters at all. That he wasn't, like, a full-time player to start his rookie season.
52:30Because, number one, this is a guy who was hurt last offseason.
52:33Like, this time last year, Ben Johnson was telling us how behind Luther Burden was because he missed all that time in
52:40the OTAs and mini camps where Ben is, like, drilling it into these guys.
52:44You've got to be at this spot, this depth.
52:47Like, being very stickler with the details. Burden missed all that time because of injuries, number one.
52:52And, number two, he was a prospect that... I'm not saying he needed to be, like, fully teared down and rebuilt.
52:58But he did need to be pushed because he just wasn't right and tight on his details as a collegiate player.
53:04That last offseason was part of rebuilding Luther Burden to being the guy that he is now where they can't shut up
53:10about how awesome he's going to be. Because he is going to be awesome.
53:15Like, he's over 70% success rate versus man. Over 80% success rate versus zone in reception perception.
53:20Tethered to a really great offense with one of the best coaches in the NFL.
53:24And a guy who makes plays after the catch.
53:27Like, in the fifth round on Yahoo ADP right now, that's a full, like, send to me.
53:32So, I'm with you, Luther Burden. Full upside pick here in round five.
53:35Absolutely love it. I want all these bears, okay?
53:38You can't make me hate any of them. Sixth round here.
53:41Let's go to that in terms of highest upside pick.
53:44And this one was tough for me, Chris. Because there's a lot...
53:48You know, Basial Tootin was an interesting sixth rounder that I considered for this.
53:52I do think he has a really high ceiling.
53:55He might be the right answer. As I mentioned, Roma Dunze, 69th overall ADP.
53:59I've got him 25 spots ahead of that in my overall rankings.
54:02But again, if we're just thinking pure upside, I do think it has to be Mike Evans here.
54:07Because, like, the range of outcomes for Mike Evans is he plays five games.
54:12His hamstrings bother him all year. I'm really enjoying the substation photoshops now where it's, like, just the eye of Sauron staring down at 49ers practice.
54:19Yeah, the eye, the substation, whatever you want to call it, zaps Mike Evans after five games and it's over.
54:25That's the floor. But the ceiling is, if he plays 14 games, he probably moonwalks into 10 touchdowns.
54:30You know? That's it. That's the range of outcomes for Evans.
54:34And if he moonwalks into 10 touchdowns and 1,000, you know, let's call it 1,100 yards as the clear highest targeted player
54:40in this offense besides Christian McCaffrey, he's going to be a wide receiver one in the sixth round.
54:45So, to me, a lot of cool picks here in the sixth round, but the guy that has the highest upside and
54:52the lowest floor is probably Mike Evans. Without a doubt, and we've also seen this in years past of the guy that
54:58winds up playing in that X receiver type role for the 49ers.
55:02Because if you look at where things were with Brandon, oh my gosh, look at this.
55:07It's so good. I was like, why does it look like that?
55:10It looks like? Are they practicing in Mordor? Like, where are these people?
55:14Where are they playing at? My goodness. I mean, Mike Evans, I don't know who's got to do it, but somebody's got
55:20to take the ring to Mount Doom and throw that bad boy in the fire and just curse right now.
55:26Because, I mean, every day I feel like I get an update about the Niners injury situation.
55:31And, yeah, here we go. The eye of Sauron is just staring down Mike Evans' hamstring as he's about to run this route here.
55:38Exactly. And the ironic part is, and more knocking on wood for me, is that through all of this, we haven't heard
55:45not a lick about Christian McCaffrey and his health.
55:47Even though a lot of folks will look at him in the first round and be like, well, I'm not drafting him.
55:54Do you know how many touches that guy's had?
55:56And look at all. Why would I take him in the first round?
56:00I'm kind of surprised he wasn't your highest upside pick in the first round, Chris.
56:05Honestly, because it's like this is the range of outcomes.
56:08I know you had to do the Bengals thing, but this is the range of outcomes for Christian McCaffrey, too.
56:14It's, hey, either he's the best player in fantasy football or he ruins your season.
56:18Exactly. And so that's where you're investing in. Going back, I'll keep repeating it throughout this entire episode.
56:23Talent and situation. And how many years have we just sat back and watched the 49ers just run roughshod over every single
56:30offense or at least stay abreast with a lot of the better play callers throughout the entire season?
56:35Because they have Kyle Shanahan sitting there controlling the sticks.
56:38And so now I'm getting Mike Evans playing more or less the Brandon Ayuk role from years past with 2022, 23, 2024,
56:44where it was Brock Purdy going from, yeah, when he was first getting used to the offense, it was more of, hey,
56:51I will dump off to Christian McCaffrey. I will use George Kittle across the middle and I will let them continue to work after the catch.
56:59But after he got comfortable, you saw Brock Purdy's average depth of target tick up.
57:03He was almost around close to nine air yards per target back in 2023, which is one of the higher depths of
57:09target in the entire league, but still maintaining that passing efficiency.
57:13Still top 10 or close to top 10 passing success rate EPA per drop back.
57:17Because if you have guys like McCaffrey, George Kittle running across the middle, leaving a lot of that single coverage or it's
57:23a lesser coverage for the guys working on the outside that would allow guys like Brandon, Brandon, Brandon, you to be hit
57:30for 12, 13, 14 yard gains almost every single week.
57:33And so if I'm getting Mike Evans playing that similar role in this progressive type offense, again, without the substation in mind,
57:39and we still get the healthy production from Mike Evans, then yes, out of the entire crop of wide receivers that you
57:46typically find in the sixth round, Evans has to be the one that sticks out because he's a part of that offense
57:52that you know you're going to want to invest in year in year out.
57:56Yeah, I love the point from you there about him in that Brandon.
58:00I you role too, because the routes that he still runs or at least he ran really well last year, you know,
58:07when he was on the field, Mike Evans, those are the routes that Brandon was running in that 2023 season.
58:13The overlap there is really strong. Can we can we pull up the projections one more quick one more time real quick
58:19before we go to break here for Mike Evans?
58:22Because these these numbers here, Chris, like I've last year I did the I'll eat the pen if Ladd McConkie, you know,
58:28was to was to have if he was going to knock it if he's going to have like there was gonna be
58:35the huge gap, whatever the bet was about him and Quentin Johnson was gonna be a big gap between the production.
58:41Yeah, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna say that I'm gonna eat this pen.
58:45But. I'm pretty close to saying like I would eat this.
58:48I'm not gonna say it. I'm not saying it.
58:51Don't nobody clip this. Nobody save it. But like if Mike Evans.
58:54Yeah, no, no one clip it. Don't put this in the paper that I said this.
58:59There's no way that Mike Evans has this stat line.
59:02Okay, 865 yards and eight touchdowns. No way. No way.
59:05Because here's the deal. So it's either gonna be 302 and he's out for the season or or he's gonna go for 1110 plus.
59:12That's that's it. That's this. I realize is if you're doing projections, you can't you can't do what I just did there.
59:18But the reality is it's one of those two outcomes.
59:21Okay, it's not he. It's not he stayed healthy for 17 games and had 865 yards and eight touchdowns.
59:27I'm not saying I would eat. I'd be so surprised that I would eat this pen if that would happen because I'm I'm a grown up now.
59:35I've matured. But I'm but I'm pretty close to saying it.
59:38So, okay. On that note, before I get myself in trouble.
59:41Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we're talking more high upside picks in every round of the draft.
59:47We will get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
59:51We are continuing to reveal the highest upside picks in every single round.
59:55I have recovered from almost, you know, putting my life on the line again there on August 5th.
60:00Okay, it's way too early for this pen nonsense.
60:03Chris, I can't believe you made me do that.
60:05Seventh round pick. Who's got the highest upside? I bring this out in people, man.
60:10Besides, it's the offseason. All right. I will equate the offseason to just like how the players are.
60:15I mean, we're trying to get into our midseason form as soon as possible.
60:19So it's going to be a little bit before we can really lock in and be ready to give the people what they need weeks one through 17.
60:27So, yeah, we got time. We got time. Okay.
60:30All right. So seventh round, you said, it's going to be a gross pick.
60:34But now we're getting to the part of the draft where I don't think anything looks particularly great off the board.
60:40So I'm going to go with Ramondre Stevenson here.
60:43And again, if we're looking for ceiling, I'm looking at the guy that had the RB1 job to start off the season,
60:49lost it because of injury, but almost immediately after he came back, reclaimed the role.
60:54Because the hope would be, and this was the thesis of the Travion Henderson play throughout the beginning of the 2025 season,
61:00was that, well, of course, at some point, Ramondre Stevenson is either going to literally fumble away his job or he's going
61:07to wind up getting hurt because he's an older vet.
61:10Those things happened. Fumbled multiple times. Got hurt. Travion Henderson had the RB1 role for about a month.
61:15If immediately after that, looking at how things worked out or shook out between those two running backs throughout the playoffs, when
61:22things were at the highest stakes for the Patriots, 61% rushing rate for Ramondre Stevenson, 55% route rate, 100% of the goal line carries.
61:29This is not a tandem RB1A, RB1B type of situation.
61:32No, the man came back and stole his job back.
61:34That's what happened. Point blank. So if I'm looking for the guy that has that type of upside, and actually he was
61:41talking throughout training camp, I think he was on the Kay Adams show either early this week or late last week, talking
61:47about continuing to work at his receiving skills. So if he's going to bite a bit more into the upside that Henderson
61:54has, at least that was sold to us with him coming out of Ohio State.
61:58Now I'm looking at that 1A, 1B situation, but now with Stevenson playing that 1A type of role.
62:04So I'm looking at this offense now as, again, efficient offense, good situation, good ecosystem with Drake May under center.
62:09I mean, they add AJ Brown, Romeo Dobbs. I mean, the pass catchers that, going through most of last season, we were
62:16hoping that Drake May would wind up having at some point last year.
62:20They get it this year. And so on top of that, now he gets a few more cracks at these money touches
62:26because we would assume that with the increase in the quality of wide receiver, they're now going to be knocking on the
62:33door of opposing defenses more often than not. So that's where Stevenson comes into play.
62:37He's got that short yardage role. He's got that goal line role.
62:41So I'm looking for that upside in the seventh round, especially at the running back position where we know that the pickings become a bit slim.
62:48To be honest, I think Stevenson has that upside of that ceiling play that you're looking for.
62:53Yeah. And just because he's not as young as Travion Henderson doesn't mean there's any more or less upside with Stevenson at this point.
63:00And you're looking at a guy that, like you said, just dusted Henderson late in the year, and he could easily just moonwalk into the touchdowns there.
63:08I'm with you on this one. He's the back that they trusted in big games.
63:13And this offense is going to be, I think it will take an efficiency step back, but I think it will be
63:19a better offense this year in New England and a guy that could have a bunch of touchdowns in the seventh round.
63:26I'm with you. Big time upside pick here. He's a guy that I would.
63:30He's the one I have like highest ranked relative to consensus here in the seventh round.
63:34By the way, if we can just show the full board real quick, this was our first running back pick, which either
63:41tells us one of two things here, Chris. One, we did the exercise wrong.
63:45Two, the people need to hammer running. And I think this is the right answer, actually.
63:50Need to hammer running backs early, man. I mean, round one, round two, get a couple of them.
63:55I think you got to have two before you leave round three or you start to feel like you're really far behind at running back.
64:02That's at least been my thought so far. And again, we're talking about these upside receivers in rounds four, round five, the
64:09Waddles, the Bucas, the Burdens, the Evans, the Roma Dunes.
64:12And then, by the way, we're about to get a few more wide receivers here.
64:16There's just a lot of ceiling bets at receiver that you can make and so, so many good ones, including in round eight.
64:23My highest upside pick here is Jordan Tyson, a guy at 91st overall ADP right now.
64:28I mean, dude, this is a situation that I have been kind of rethinking relative to my rookie receiver rankings for this year.
64:34I didn't know how high I was going to be on Tyson.
64:38I thought I'd be higher on Carnell Tate. And then the more I've looked at it, Chris, I'm like, why am I
64:44higher on Carnell Tate for this year than Jordan Tyson?
64:47I did like Tate more as a prospect, which, you know, that's a pretty big, big variable.
64:52But it wasn't by a massive degree necessarily. And I think that Jordan Tyson went to the perfect spot for his skill set.
64:59I've mentioned that he was number one in success rate versus zone coverage of all of the prospects that I charted, not
65:05just this year, but he's got a top five mark over the last five draft classes.
65:10Since 2021, all the classes combined, he is up there with like Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Travis Hunter.
65:15Like he's a great zone beater. He's going to an offense that lived in this intermediate area with Tyler Shuck.
65:21And as we're showing on the screen right now, he ran a ton of outs and digs to Jordan Tyson and Tyler
65:28Shuck was throwing those dig routes, the post routes at a high level to Chris Olave last year.
65:33Once he got under center, you know, there's so much opportunity for Jordan Tyson.
65:37They got Jordan Tyson in motion, as we're showing on the screen right now.
65:41Like he's going to be a guy that moves around at the snap, which is going to help him get away from press coverage, which he needs.
65:49And then, you know, just lastly, like I trust this offensive ecosystem way more than I trust the offensive ecosystem in Tennessee.
65:56So Tyson is a guy that I think I'm going to beat now that he's actually practicing for the New Orleans Saints.
66:02He's actually out there with his hamstring injury, which is something to consider.
66:06Tyson is a guy I think I'm going to be moving up my my rankings.
66:10But I look at this ninth round here or eighth round right now.
66:14Excuse me. And I pretty clearly think he is the highest upside, even if there's plenty of picks in the eighth round that I like.
66:22So if you were just wanting to look for opportunity shares in the ninth round, let's look back at maybe the last
66:28month, month and a half of the Saints offense.
66:31Here are the non Chris Olave wide receivers that Tyler Shuck had to throw to Devon Bailey.
66:36Kevin Austin, Jr., Mason Tipton and Dante Pettis. If you don't think that that group of wide receivers is enough to give
66:42Jordan Tyson the requisite amount of targets to hit a ceiling for what you would want out of the ninth round.
66:48I don't know what to tell you. So that's the ecosystem that we're talking about, one that is rife with opportunity for somebody of Tyson's skill set.
66:56But he's also working with Tyler Shuck for some of the warts that you would you would almost expect to see out
67:03of a rookie that was drafted towards like in the day three pick.
67:07I mean, older vet like I get it. But Tyler Shuck, after he took the starters job, what was it around like
67:13week nine, week 10, still finished above the league average and EPA per drop back.
67:17And that was, again, passing to some of those other guys because he didn't really get a chance to really work with Rashid Shaheed.
67:24That trade would happen almost like soon after he took the starter job.
67:28So really, it was just Olave, Juwan Johnson. And that's about it.
67:32So now he gets to have this early round talent in Jordan Tyson who fits the skill set that he likes, that
67:38he seems to complement what Shuck wants to do.
67:41And also in Kellen Moore system, like the second year for Shuck or at least a full offseason to be able to work with Kellen Moore.
67:49I think this is also going to be all positive things for for both of them.
67:53So I think Tyson winds up being the beneficiary of what I can see is like a budding quarterback, at least an efficient quarterback in Tyler Shuck.
68:01And remember, I mean, I said that this is a Saints offense.
68:05I think it's primed to wind up being a playoff team towards the back end this season.
68:10That's more of a product of the division that they play in.
68:13But still, I think the pieces are there for both of them to wind up showing out this season.
68:19And Tyson is that guy that I think elevates into the ceiling consideration in the ninth round.
68:24Yeah, there's a ton of good picks again in this round.
68:27I just think Tyson has that high ceiling. I mentioned all the Jags yesterday are in the eighth round with Ray Garvin yesterday.
68:34So I just didn't want to double that up.
68:36But yeah, Brian Thompson, Parker Washington, Trevor Lawrence, a lot of upside there, of course.
68:41But all right, Chris, ninth round, who has the highest upside for you in round nine?
68:46Yeah, I said ninth round just for Jordan Tyson.
68:48That's my fault. Ninth round now here, I'll look at Mike Evans' old teammate.
68:52Look at Chris Godwin, because almost for the similar reasons that you were talking about with Emika Buka, is that this is
68:59also still a team situation that has been past friendly over multiple years, like since Baker Mayfield took over as the starter.
69:05And then after Godwin came back from injury, we saw him move back into his old power slot role.
69:11I mean, moving there over like over 50% of his routes there within the slot.
69:15I mean, was the target share there? No. I mean, just short of a 20% target rate over the back end of the season.
69:22But I think we can all agree this was more of a broken offense than anything else.
69:27Everybody was hurt or coming back from injury or managing an injury or something along those lines, from Godwin himself to Baker to Buka.
69:34I mean, all of them. So I'm looking at this upcoming season for Godwin as more or less his ability to move
69:41into that particular role as kind of the veteran wide receiver that can help build up a guy like Ibuka to allow
69:47him to see like, how best can I start to beat some of those coverages and start to work on the interior as the Z.
69:55But with Godwin as the slot, knowing he has that relationship with Baker Mayfield, he sticks out to me as the guy
70:01that has the, we already know the talent ceiling for Chris Godwin.
70:05But now it's the situation with having a more as a premier wide receiver, and Ibuka playing on the outside in his
70:11proper role as the Z that should allow this passing offense to really get back to at least start to get back
70:18to where it was at, let's say in that 2024-ish time frame before things really started to take a nosedive.
70:23Well, yeah, that 2024 time frame. I mean, the upside case for Chris Godwin is that he's back to that form, which
70:30obviously major injury did not look right in 2025.
70:33But if he's back to that form, I mean, we're talking about, oh, yeah, Ibuka.
70:37Look, I'm buying what I was selling earlier. I'm like, I'm at Kabuka in the Z receiver role.
70:42You know, that was kind of, that's like a Cooper Cup-ish role.
70:46And Zach Robinson comes from the Rams. Well, I mean, Chris Godwin was literally playing the Cooper Cup role for Liam Cohen in 2024.
70:53And before he got hurt, was wide receiver two and points per game behind only your guy, Jamar Chase.
70:58So there's an obvious upside case there for him.
71:01We've seen it. It just involves him. And this is what makes me nervous about it.
71:06It does involve him turning the clock back a little bit.
71:09And I worry, you know, it's one of Scott Pienowski's many good lines.
71:13You know, once the cheese goes, it doesn't get unbad.
71:16And I know that he says it more eloquently than me.
71:19But, you know, it's just the general theme of it here.
71:22But I love Chris Godwin, one of my all-time favorite receivers when he was really breaking out there.
71:27So I'm hoping that he can turn back the clock and absolutely smash in the ninth round because he has a lot of interesting picks in round nine.
71:36But I do think he stands out as somebody that has a good combination of a ceiling and a floor at his ADP as well.
71:43But we're going to take our final quick break of the show.
71:47When we come back, we've got three more rounds to rip through for high upside picks.
71:51We will get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
71:55We are in the double-digit rounds now, rounds 10, 11, 12 for high upside picks here.
71:59Chris, round 10, the highest upside pick is your favorite commander's running back.
72:03All right, I'm cheating here. I'm cheating with the combination picks.
72:07I'm a bit of cheating. It is. Listen, it is cheating.
72:10But is this like the host powers that you can just change the rules and pick multiple players?
72:15Yes. Yes. That's correct. I mean, listen, I make the rules here, okay?
72:19All right? I make the rules. No, listen. The reason that I want to paint it this way, I think probably like
72:25because both these guys, Corey Krosky, Merritt, 113 overall ADP, Rashad White, 117 overall ADP.
72:30They're going in the same round and it kind of is one of those situations where right now here on August 5th,
72:36I am truly flip-flopping on which one I think has the higher shot at being the guy.
72:41I think on first look, Chris, and I really wanted to pose it this way because honest to God, I want your
72:48opinion here because I am very conflicted. I think at first look, JCM is the guy that would have the highest ceiling, right?
72:54Because he's the younger player. He showed some explosiveness last year.
72:58And as I was talking about with Boone earlier this week, really efficient out of runs under center.
73:03Whereas Rashad White, maybe not so much at different points in his career.
73:07However, I mean, the reality is like if Rashad White's the guy who's trusted on passing downs and they trust him to
73:13just like get what's there, that's the Javante Williams path from last year.
73:17And the reason you and I wasn't into Javante Williams last year, so maybe this is me just kind of trying to
73:24work through the sins of my past here. But the reason you would get yourself onto Javante Williams last year was trusted in pass direction.
73:31He's, you know, like he's played games in the NFL before.
73:34He can get what's there. And this is an offense in Dallas last season that you should really, really be in on taking a big step forward.
73:42This is an offense in Washington that I'm really, really into taking a big step forward.
73:47At the same time, though, like, is it not more upside to go with JCM?
73:51Well, I mean, you know what has like Javante Williams was a high upside pick last year where he went.
73:57So where do you fall down? Honestly, Chris, I really want your opinion here.
74:01Rashad White, JCM, which one of these two do you prefer?
74:04Which one do you think has the higher ceiling?
74:07So my preference is Rashad White. And it's not really about a talent based bet.
74:11It's just more about the ambiguous backfield bet. And that's something that I've heard like our guy, JJ Zacharisen, talk about in
74:18terms of, well, if you're trying to sift through, well, who should I wind up taking or who should I wind up drafting?
74:25And at least in some cases in the past, it's been easier for you to make the bet on the cheaper guy.
74:31Not always, but again, like just looking at it from that standpoint.
74:35But also one of the ways that I try and look at running backs is how much they're going to be used
74:41in different phases of the game that are most relevant for fantasy football.
74:45Like are you used or can you be used or have you shown the talent to be used on early downs?
74:51Do you also have some semblance of usage in the passing game?
74:55Because we know that receptions are not just more efficient, but they're worth more, especially if you play in half point or full PPR leagues.
75:02And of course, the big one is, are you getting the money touches?
75:06Like once you get into the green zone, red zone, is the team looking for you in order to in order to pound the rock in?
75:13And so for Rashad White specifically, we saw that in spurts throughout the 2025 season when he was with the Bucks.
75:20After Bucky Irving went down, we saw him kind of flex into that type of role.
75:24And even when Irving was still healthier, still a part of the rotation, those two guys were kind of splitting either whether it was base down work.
75:32We saw Rashad White come in on early downs.
75:35But then also he got a little bit of the of the goal line action as well around, I would say, 11
75:41percent of the team's rushes from inside the five yard line.
75:45So if I can see all that stacked up and now the caveat to that being and we both talked about this
75:51multiple times when we were talking about either Chris Godwin or Becca Ibuka, this was a broken offense.
75:56So would they call plays the same way today with everybody healthy as they would have in the situation they found themselves last season?
76:03Who's to say? But at the very least, if I can at least point to a track record of usage across all
76:10those phases and say that, well, I can get similar type of usage or similar type of opportunities, but at a slightly
76:16cheaper price, I'm going to go with Rashad White.
76:19And that's really how I'm trying to break it down and say that that's where the ceiling might come from if things wind up shaking out that way.
76:27I'd rather make that bet at a lesser cost versus saying, all right, JCM showed out in bursts.
76:32I do think that he does have that the requisite, I'd say, athletic profile and usage that we saw again in a
76:39few weeks here and there in his rookie season that he can wind up excelling.
76:43But again, if I'm going to wind up looking at it from a opportunity cost standpoint, I'm going to go with Rashad White.
76:50Yeah. Like I said, I keep flip-flopping this back and forth in my head.
76:54It's like whoever I talked to last is going to have the biggest impact on me.
76:59Like whatever I thought about last is going to have the biggest impact on me.
77:03So I do think it's really good, credible arguments for both, which is why I cheated and said, just take your commanders back here in the 10th round.
77:12Let's go to round 11 here. Who is your highest upside pick from round 11?
77:16So I'm looking at Jaden Reed here in the 11th round.
77:19And for the reasons, not just because it's an addition by subtraction or anything along those lines, because now with Romeo Dobbs
77:26out in New England, there's the opportunity path for Reed to pick up a few more targets here and there with Dobbs out of it.
77:33But we've seen this in years past from Jaden Reed in terms of, we know that he is a high end route runner.
77:40We know that with the ball in his hands, he's going to be one of the more efficient wide receivers.
77:46That's been a part of that progressive offense under the floor, but it's more about, can we continue to see that build up?
77:52And can he move into that? I would say, I will say the Romeo Dobbs role, but not in the way that most folks are thinking about.
78:00Because Romeo Dobbs, like when he was on the field, he was the guy that on third downs, obvious passing situations that
78:07Jordan Love was looking for, was looking towards. I mean, he had the highest amount of targets like in those types of situations.
78:14Even when Jordan Love was under pressure, he was looking to Dobbs on some of those outbreakers and towards the, towards the
78:20boundary in order to convert, keep the offense on schedule.
78:23Can, does Jordan Reed have the talent profile to at least take on some of that?
78:28And I would say yes. I mean, in the past seasons of where he's been deployed at on the field, could it
78:34be used in a way that Love could look to him in the same way that he's looked to Romeo Dobbs?
78:40And I would say absolutely. Whether it's as a route runner, I mean, he has been used out of the backfield, like here and there, sparingly.
78:48But there are ways that they can get in the ball in order to have him function in the way that Romeo
78:54Dobbs has for them in the past. So I know a lot of folks are going to be looking to Christian Watson,
79:01especially after how explosive he was throughout last season coming off of the ACL tear.
79:05Matthew Golden in his second season. What he can do now as the team's ex-receiver, at least looking like he's going to move into that role.
79:13But for me, I'm still looking at Jaden Reed as the guy that we've seen in the past be efficient with the touches that he's earned.
79:21And now with the potential for a role shift and then slight, a slight step forward in his opportunity, I would say
79:27Reed sticks out as the guy that I want to try and make that bet on knowing that he's got the talent.
79:34He also has at least the situation, at least the ecosystem from the play caller standpoint that I would want to see
79:40or try and invest in, especially once we get into the double digit rounds.
79:44Yeah, I mean, you don't have to talk me into Jaden Reed.
79:48I'm a big Jaden Reed fan. His first two years in reception perception just looked like a guy that, hey, a couple
79:54of tweaks here and there, and he could be ready to take that next step as an individual player.
80:00And then there's no doubt he's getting a playing time bump this year.
80:03Doesn't matter about the two-receiver set stuff. Like they're going to play more 11 personnel.
80:08They're going to be throwing the football more this year.
80:11So, yeah, I'm with you to Jaden Reed. Should be going way higher than round 11.
80:16And I think Matthew Golden is a good pick where he is going right now as well.
80:21So all these Packers receivers are in a good spot.
80:23I'll round us out here, Chris, in round 12 by basically saying it like this.
80:28My heart says that the right pick here is Jalen Coker at around 133rd overall.
80:32Great. He's a stud. He's such a good player.
80:35What if Bryce Young improves? Upside. Okay, sure. My gut says that it's Stefan Diggs at about a similar ADP.
80:41And I wrote that on the outline before he signed with the Washington Commanders.
80:45And frankly, probably a cheating answer because he's not going to be going in round 12 for too much longer.
80:51He's probably more of a 10th round pick, maybe if not 9th round pick.
80:55Heart says Coker. Gut says Diggs. And yet spiritually, the right answer is probably Tank Bigsby.
81:00You know? I mean, Tank Bigsby right now is probably the best running back insurance policy on the board.
81:05If Saquon Barkley gets hurt, Bigsby comes in here and he just absolutely crushes it.
81:10So a lot of interesting round 12 picks. But Chris, Tank Bigsby, I think spiritually is the correct answer behind an Eagles
81:16offensive line that, you know, has got some changes, but still could be a very good unit this year.
81:22Chris, it is always a very good show with you, my brother.
81:25Good to see you, man. I appreciate you jumping on the show.
81:29Looking forward to more content from you all year long here at Yahoo.
81:33Thanks again, brother, for jumping on the show. Of course.
81:35Anytime. And folks that haven't already, check out a couple of pieces that have already dropped on Yahoo already.
81:41Going through some draft strategy guides, do's and don'ts, those types of things.
81:45So have more throughout the offseason. But anytime you need me to come and hop on the mic with you, man, you know I'm there.
81:52Don't worry. We will be ringing your bell. That is for sure.
81:56And that is going to do it for today's show.
81:59And while today was all about upside, all about ceiling, all about imagining the possibilities.
82:03Tomorrow, we're going to imagine some possibilities, but a turn for the negative as Hayden Winks joins me to look at how
82:10each of the consensus top 12 players, the first round picks could bust this year.
82:14That's right. Got to imagine some floor outcomes with all these ceilings.
82:17That's going to be live right here, 4 p.m.
82:20Eastern on YouTube. Subscribe while you're at it. Like this video.
82:23Do all the things. Until then, we are out.
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